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Trade War Ends In Less Than 10 Hours After Colombia Agrees To All Of Trump’s Terms

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Trade War Ends In Less Than 10 Hours After Colombia Agrees To All Of Trump’s Terms

Update (10:26pm ET): Just after 10pm ET, and just under 10 hours after Trump lobbed the first shot in the first trade war of his second admin, the White House announced that Colombia had agreed to all of Trump’s terms, “including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay.”

Based on this agreement, the White House notes, the hastily drafted tariffs and sanctions “will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement.” The visa sanctions issued by the State Department, and enhanced inspections from Customs and Border Protection, will remain in effect until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned.

The statement concludes by noting that President Trump “will continue to fiercely protect our nation’s sovereignty, and he expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States.”

And just like that, Trump wins, in a victory so complete even the president of Colombia reposted his own loss.

The only problem: the next trade wars – and there will be many – won’t be nearly as easy to win…

* * *

Update (6:50pm ET): Despite appearing to cave earlier when he ordered the use of the presidential plane to repatraite illegal aliens from the US, late on Sunday Colombia President Gustavo Petro ordered an increase of import tariffs on goods from the United States in retaliation to President Trump’s tariffs and sanctions.

Petro, in a post on the social platform X, said he ordered the “foreign trade minister to raise import tariffs from the U.S. by 25%.”

“American products whose price will rise within the national economy must be replaced by national production, and the government will help in this regard,” the post continued.

Then in a meandering post in Spanish, the president also issued several empty threats to Trump.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, Colombian assets are set for a rout after US President Donald Trump said he’d implement a spate of tariffs and sanctions on the South American nation.

The announcement of an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, made by Trump on social media on Sunday, caught traders off guard — most of the focus so far has been on levies on Mexico, Canada and China. The move will likely spark a slump that will reverberate across local bond, currency and equity markets when trading opens Monday.

Daniel Velandia, chief economist at Credicorp Capital Colombia, said the peso will weaken against the dollar Monday morning, adding that the economy could inch toward a recession in an “extreme scenario.”

“This is completely unexpected and unpredictable,” Velandia said. “We need to see how far Trump goes and how Colombia’s government will respond, hoping that diplomacy will be used to prevent adverse effects.”

And it’s not just Colombia: the Mexican peso is also tumbling more than 1% in late Sunday trading amid concerns that the southern US neighbor will be next to suffer Trump’s wrath.

* * *

Update (4:15pm ET): that may have been the fastest trade war capitulation in history:

  • COLOMBIA OFFERS PRESIDENTIAL PLANE TO HELP REPATRIATE DEPORTEES FROM US: CNN

Full statement translated:

* * *

For those in the market breathing repeated sighs of relief that Trump has – so far – not imposed sanctions on China or any other major country, we have some news, just wait.

Case in point: on Saturday afternoon, one day after Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro refused to allow two military flights from the United States full of undocumented migrants to land on its soil, President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that he would slap sweeping sanctions and travel bans on Colombia.

In a social media post, Trump said he has ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in one week.

He has also called for a travel ban and immediate visa revocations on Colombian government officials “and all Allies and Supporters” as well as visa sanctions on party members, family members and supporters of the government of President Gustavo Petro.

“Petro’s denial of these flights has jeopardized the National Security and Public Safety of the United States,” Trump said.

While the US is hardly overly reliant on Colombian exports – with the exception of cocaine whose prices are about to skyrocket – the speed and severity with which Trump unveiled his latest set of weaponized sanctions is an indication of just how ruthless and relentless Trump will be when dealing with other, much bigger trade partners.

Lastly, anyone hoping that Trump was just bluffing about tariffs on China, Europe, or NAFTA member states, is about to get a very nasty surprise.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 22:32

CIA Admits COVID-19 “More Likely” Came From Chinese Lab

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CIA Admits COVID-19 “More Likely” Came From Chinese Lab

Having been temporarily banned from Twitter, Facebook, and Google over ‘COVID conspiracy theories’ (when we first suggested in January 2020 that the fact there was a Level 4 virus lab in Wuhan was likely not a coincidence to the origin of COVID), and being accused by intel officials of being a propaganda spreading site, we couldn’t help but see the irony (and not rage, frustration, or desire for retribution), when the CIA itself confirmed this week that it found a lab origin “more likely” for the COVID-19 pandemic, joining two other top U.S. agencies that have previously made the assessment.

“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” a spokesperson for the agency said in a Jan. 25 statement to media outlets.

More comical is the fact that, despite no actual physical evidence of a natural origin, the agency emphasized that it has “low confidence” in the assessment and still considers it plausible that the virus came from nature.

The CIA will “continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” the spokesperson said.

President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, testifies before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

As Eva Fu reports for The Epoch Times, the assessment marks a shift in stance from the intelligence agency that has for years refrained from making a conclusion on the issue, citing lack of information.

John Ratcliffe, the new CIA director, has long supported the lab leak possibility, telling a congressional panel in April 2023 that it’s the “only explanation” for the disease that has since killed millions around the globe.

After gaining Senate confirmation, Ratcliffe told Breitbart News that addressing the pandemic origin would be a “day one” priority for him.

“I’ve been on record, as you know, in saying I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all really dictates that the origins of COVID was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” he said, adding that he plans to look at intelligence and get the agency “off the sidelines.”

The international efforts to get more clarity about the source of the virus from China have made little headway.

In late December 2024, the World Health Organization repeated a request for Beijing to share COVID-related data.

“This is a moral and scientific imperative,” the organization said. “Without transparency, sharing, and cooperation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics.”

In the years since the pandemic broke out from central Chinese city Wuhan, Beijing has silenced on-the-ground citizen journalists, doctors, and academics who sought to shed light on the issue or criticize the regime’s handling of the virus.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, said he was pleased to see the CIA’s assessment.

“I’ve said from the beginning that COVID likely originated in the Wuhan labs. Communist China covered it up and the liberal media covered for them,” he said in a Jan. 25 statement “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”

The FBI and the Energy Department have previously assessed that the virus had originated from a lab. The State Department, under the first Trump administration, said in a fact sheet that several researchers had fallen sick with COVID-like symptoms in the autumn of 2019, months before the pandemic exploded to a global scale.

Leaked Chinese documents that The Epoch Times obtained also show that Chinese hospitals were treating patients with COVID-like symptoms months before the regime’s official timeline.

“The Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate the work here—the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody,” then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said in early 2023.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 20:25

Crank Your Amps To 11

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Crank Your Amps To 11

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

In this industry we are always trying to decipher the signal from the noise. That is never easy, but the level of “noise” coming out of D.C. and elsewhere is making it extremely difficult to identify signals. Some weekend T-Reports write themselves (thankfully) and some are a struggle.

  • What economic data is relevant and indicative of potential trends going forward?
  • How much of the data is largely irrelevant if policies shift dramatically?

The level of noise is so high that all I could think of was Spinal Tap and how they were fortunate that their amps went to 11, while everyone else’s only went to 10.

Given all the hype surrounding the first 24 hours and all of the executive orders, I’m surprised that I am more confused, rather than less confused, by the trajectory of this administration (one week into it).

Most Surprised by…

Bitcoin. I am most surprised that Bitcoin isn’t a lot higher. This administration seems keen to embrace crypto. There is a lot of chatter about the potential for Bitcoin or crypto reserves. Is Bitcoin failing to break a lot higher because people believe that there are enough politicians in D.C. who think it isn’t a good idea (or even think that it is a bad idea) to use tax dollars to buy and hold crypto? Is there a belief that the crypto community can’t donate enough money to politicians to get some kind of a deal through? Or is the question on Kalshi too narrow and the reserve will include things other than just Bitcoin? We linked to that betting site in last weekend’s report – $Trump, TikTok, and Trea$urie$. Or, quite simply, has so much been priced in that we will need to see a lot more out of D.C. to get another big rally? If so, that has implications for the broader market.

Least Surprised by…

The number of responses on this month’s Around the World. Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighed in on:

  • The Ceasefire in Gaza.
  • Iran Signing a Strategic Partnership Pact with Russia.
  • The Escalation in the War between Russia and Ukraine.
  • The Chinese Cyber Threat.
  • The U.S. “Engagement” with Greenland.

Most Intrigued by…

DeepSeek. Given all the “noise” around TikTok, you would think that would be a focus, but DeepSeek caught my attention. It seems like this AI model may have been out there for some time, but it exploded in my social media timeline this weekend. On the face of it, we have an AI tool that is cheaper to build and possibly better than existing AI platforms. The “catch” is that it is a Chinese developed AI engine. Given privacy concerns and the cyber threats, I cannot help but wonder who would (or should) use it?

That is, assuming it is real. Periodically we used to get stories about some group achieving “cold fusion” that never turned out to be real, and lately, some similar claims about quantum computing have yet to pan out in reality.

In any case, if extremely good AI can be built with “old school” chips, it would have a lot of ramifications for this market. It does seem unbelievable in some ways but reminds us of the discussion we’ve been having about China’s efforts to develop chips of their own.

  • The smallest chips require state of the art tech manufacturing to be built efficiently. However, small chips can be made inefficiently using old tech. It isn’t an efficient way to make the thinnest chips, but it can be accomplished to a degree, which is presumably how China is making some of its smallest chips (assuming they haven’t figured out how to get access to state of the art tech that the U.S. and others are trying to prevent China from obtaining).
  • The “packaging” (vertically stacking multiple chips) may play a bigger role in semiconductors continuing to adhere to Moore’s Law (or some variation of it) as opposed to just creating smaller and smaller chips. While packaging is also challenging, it is not necessarily “state of the art” challenging, which would reduce “our” lead over Chinese chipmakers.

Given the importance of AI in our markets (if not yet in our economy), this “story” could be interesting (and also harkens back to the question at the end of the first section – how much is priced in already?).

A Little Concerned by…

Delinquencies. This is something we are digging into in more detail as it has become a common theme in more meetings. With student loan forgiveness becoming a thing of the past (it was never really a thing) and no real clarity on how things like not taxing tips will play out, there are more and more questions about some segments of the consumer. With hopes of much lower interest rates being dashed (for now) the concern about consumption is increasing (at least for those who didn’t load up on crypto).

We are digging through the various metrics on delinquencies to figure out if this is something that should be a larger concern or not. The fact that it is coming up more in conversations means it definitely warrants some further digging. If it is true that consumers are stretched, then it shines a different light on what policies are needed, and how quickly they are needed, to ensure that the economic data doesn’t tumble.

A recession isn’t on anyone’s mind right now, and maybe it should be? It surprised us by not showing up when everyone was talking about it, so maybe a recession will make a surprise entrance? Doubtful, but time to start digging into the data that is concerning and possibly difficult to turn around.

A Little Confused by…

Inflation. Too much to unpack here, but we are working on a chart package. Of all the economic data that will be influenced by policies out of D.C., inflation is the most significant, so maybe it is a fool’s errand to think too much about it, but here are some things that keep coming to mind:

The owners equivalent rent (OER) is once again lagging virtually any “real time” measure of rent. This time around it is overstating rent inflation in CPI data. We discussed the quandary of Making Policy on Bad Data and that remains a concern.

Can the president tell the Fed what to do? No. Can the president enact policies that reduce inflation and allow the Fed to cut? Yes, but that might be difficult.

Is inflation simply oil? No, though the president, in my opinion, is not completely wrong to focus on getting oil prices lower as a strategy to lower inflation.

What impact will tariffs and immigration policy have on inflation? We still don’t really know how these “day 1” policies are going to play out, so it is difficult to estimate. Frankly, what has been done on the tariff front and on immigration has been fairly benign. That may continue, though the risk of a hiccup on the tariff front is rising as so much (maybe too much) good news is being priced in.

It is difficult enough to form good policy when the data is noisy, but when we are surrounded by even more noise out of D.C., it will be increasingly difficult not to make policy mistakes.

Bottom Line

Set your amps to 11 and prepare to deal with the noise! Fortunately, from a T-Report perspective, noise fits our 2025 theme of “messy, but manageable.”

Expect weakness in both bonds and stocks in the coming days and weeks. So much good has been priced in that it will be difficult for bonds or stocks to surprise to the upside. We’ve been looking to Bitcoin as a “tell” and even that isn’t sending a strong buy signal any longer (even with mounting evidence that it should be).

Caution is the order of the day as we try to filter the signal from the immense amount of noise and also get back to looking for the trends that will be difficult to turn around.

Good luck and maybe before or after football today, it is worth finding and watching a good mockumentary – we could all use a laugh or two.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:50

Watch: Angry Migrant Mob Blocks Dallas Traffic In Protest Of ICE Raids

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Watch: Angry Migrant Mob Blocks Dallas Traffic In Protest Of ICE Raids

A mob of angry migrants blocked traffic on a major roadway in the Dallas metro area to protest President Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids, which are targeting criminal illegal aliens and deporting them to their home countries.   

Footage uploaded to X early Sunday evening shows a mob of what appears to be migrants yelling “F*ck Trump” while waving Mexican flags. They are disrupting traffic and obstructing local law enforcement.

Migrant uprisings are an ongoing risk as Trump’s illegal alien raids kick into high gear.  

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:35

Hamas On Recruiting Drive Adds 15K Fighters Since War Began: US Intelligence

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Hamas On Recruiting Drive Adds 15K Fighters Since War Began: US Intelligence

We’ve been documenting evidence which strongly suggests Hamas is far from being eradicated even after 475 days of war in the Gaza Strip. For example, on Saturday when four Israeli female captives were finally freed in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners, Hamas crowded a large city square with a well-armed battalion-sized force.

And now newly revealed US intelligence has indicated that Hamas, a US-designated foreign terrorist organization, has actually been able to embark on a successful recruiting drive since the Israeli offensive began in Gaza in the wake of October 7.

“The Palestinian militant group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel,” Reuters reports.

Via NBC

“The intelligence indicates a similar number of Hamas fighters have been killed during that period, the sources said,” the report continues. “The latest official U.S. estimates have not been previously reported.”

Israeli government figures have put the number of Hamas dead at 20,000 or more. The group has been able to wage a guerilla insurgency using the Strip’s sprawling tunnel networks. Hamas sends small teams to ambush Israeli tank and infantry units, popping up from concealed tunnel entrances.

Just days before Trump entered the White House for a second time, then Secretary of State Antony Blinken assessed, “Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void.”

President Trump is meanwhile taking a hawkish stance in his rhetoric, as expected. On the one hand he’s hailed the truce deal as a result of his early diplomacy, but on the other he has just declared that Gaza should be “cleaned out”…

President Donald Trump said on Jan. 25 that he wants Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab nations to accept more Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, with the goal of moving out enough of the war-torn area’s population to “just clean [it] out” and create a virtual clean slate of the Palestinian territory.

As for Hamas’ ability to still recruit, many analysts have pointed out that each time Israel’s military occupies the Strip, more and more young people are radicalized.

Scenes of Hamas openly parading around the Gaza Strip sporting combat rifles and gear…

It also remains that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are internal refugees and are homeless. This is likely to contribute to the trend of men signing up to enter Hamas’ armed ranks.

Trump’s ‘cleaning out’ Gaza would certainly complicated by the fact that Israel’s military would have to fully eradicate Hamas first – which is a tall order and something the IDF clearly has not been able to do up to this point.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:15

The Algorithmic Age

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The Algorithmic Age

Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute,

Having explored the physical and psychological mechanisms of control in a previous article, and their deployment through cultural engineering in yet another article, we now turn to their ultimate evolution: the automation of consciousness control through digital systems.

In my research on the tech-industrial complex, I’ve documented how today’s digital giants weren’t simply co-opted by power structures—many were potentially designed from their inception as tools for mass surveillance and social control. From Google’s origins in a DARPA-funded CIA project to Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos’ familial ties to ARPA, these weren’t just successful startups that later aligned with government interests

What Tavistock discovered through years of careful study—emotional resonance trumps facts, peer influence outweighs authority, and indirect manipulation succeeds where direct propaganda fails—now forms the foundational logic of social media algorithms. Facebook’s emotion manipulation study and Netflix’s A/B testing of thumbnails (explored in detail later) exemplify the digital automation of these century-old insights, as AI systems perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining the art of influence at an unprecedented scale.

Just as Laurel Cc served as a physical space for steering culture, today’s digital platforms function as virtual laboratories for consciousness control—reaching further and operating with far greater precision. Social media platforms have scaled these principles through ‘influencer’ amplification and engagement metrics. The discovery that indirect influence outperforms direct propaganda now shapes how platforms subtly adjust content visibility. What once required years of meticulous psychological study can now be tested and optimized in real-time, with algorithms leveraging billions of interactions to perfect their methods of influence.

The manipulation of music reflects a broader evolution in cultural control: what began with localized programming, like Laurel Canyon’s experiments in counterculture, has now transitioned into global, algorithmically-driven systems. These digital tools automate the same mechanisms, shaping consciousness on an unprecedented scale

Netflix’s approach parallels Bernays’ manipulation principles in digital form—perhaps unsurprisingly, as co-founder Marc Randolph was Bernays’ great-nephew and Sigmund Freud’s great-grand-nephew. Where Bernays used focus groups to test messaging, Netflix conducts massive A/B testing of thumbnails and titles, showing different images to different users based on their psychological profiles.

Their recommendation algorithm doesn’t just suggest content—it shapes viewing patterns by controlling visibility and context, similar to how Bernays orchestrated comprehensive promotional campaigns that shaped public perception through multiple channels. Just as Bernays understood how to create the perfect environment to sell products—like promoting music rooms in homes to sell pianos—Netflix crafts personalized interfaces that guide viewers toward specific content choices. Their approach to original content production similarly relies on analyzing mass psychological data to craft narratives for specific demographic segments.

More insidiously, Netflix’s content strategy actively shapes social consciousness through selective promotion and burial of content. While films supporting establishment narratives receive prominent placement, documentaries questioning official accounts often find themselves buried in the platform’s least visible categories or excluded from recommendation algorithms entirely. Even successful films like What Is a Woman? faced systematic suppression across multiple platforms, demonstrating how digital gatekeepers can effectively erase challenging perspectives while maintaining the illusion of open access.

I experienced this censorship firsthand. I was fortunate enough to serve as a producer for Anecdotals, directed by Jennifer Sharp, a film documenting Covid-19 vaccine injuries, including her own. YouTube removed it on Day One, claiming individuals couldn’t discuss their own vaccine experiences. Only after Senator Ron Johnson’s intervention was the film reinstated—a telling example of how platform censorship silences personal narratives that challenge official accounts.

This gatekeeping extends across the digital landscape. By controlling which documentaries appear prominently, which foreign films reach American audiences, and which perspectives get highlighted in their original programming, platforms like Netflix act as cultural gatekeepers—just as Bernays managed public perception for his corporate clients. Where earlier systems relied on human gatekeepers to shape culture, streaming platforms use data analytics and recommendation algorithms to automate the steering of consciousness. The platform’s content strategy and promotion systems represent Bernays’ principles of psychological manipulation operating at an unprecedented scale.

Reality TV: Engineering the Self 

Before social media turned billions into their own content creators, Reality TV perfected the template for self-commodification. The Kardashians exemplified this transition: transforming from reality TV stars into digital-age influencers, they showed how to convert personal authenticity into a marketable brand. Their show didn’t just reshape societal norms around wealth and consumption—it provided a masterclass in abandoning genuine human experience for carefully curated performance. Audiences learned that being oneself was less valuable than becoming a brand, that authentic moments mattered less than engineered content, and that real relationships were secondary to networked influence.

This transformation from person to persona would reach its apex with social media, where billions now willingly participate in their own behavioral modification. Users learn to suppress authentic expression in favor of algorithmic rewards, to filter genuine experience through the lens of potential content, and to value themselves not by internal measures but through metrics of likes and shares. What Reality TV pioneered—the voluntary surrender of privacy, the replacement of authentic self with marketable image, the transformation of life into content—social media would democratize at a global scale. Now anyone could become their own reality show, trading authenticity for engagement.

Instagram epitomizes this transformation, training users to view their lives as content to be curated, their experiences as photo opportunities, and their memories as stories to be shared with the public. The platform’s ‘influencer’ economy turns authentic moments into marketing opportunities, teaching users to modify their actual behavior—where they go, what they eat, how they dress—to create content that algorithms will reward. This isn’t just sharing life online—it’s reshaping life itself to serve the digital marketplace.

Even as these systems grow more pervasive, their limits are becoming increasingly visible. The same tools that enable manipulating cultural currents also reveal its fragility, as audiences begin to challenge manipulative narratives.

Cracks in the System

Despite its sophistication, the system of control is beginning to show cracks. Increasingly, the public is pushing back against blatant attempts at cultural engineering, as evidenced by current consumer and electoral rejections.

Recent attempts at obvious cultural exploitation, such as corporate marketing campaigns and celebrity-driven narratives, have begun to fail, signaling a turning point in public tolerance for manipulation. When Bud Light and Target—companies with their own deep establishment connections—faced massive consumer backlash in 2023 over their social messaging campaigns, the speed and scale of the rejection marked a significant shift in consumer behavior. Major investment firms like BlackRock faced unprecedented pushback against ESG initiatives, seeing significant outflows that forced them to recalibrate their approach. Even celebrity influence lost its power to shape public opinion—when dozens of A-list celebrities united behind one candidate in the 2024 election, their coordinated endorsements not only failed to sway voters but may have backfired, suggesting a growing public fatigue with manufactured consensus.

The public is increasingly recognizing these manipulation patterns. When viral videos expose dozens of news anchors reading identical scripts about ‘threats to our democracy,’ the facade of independent journalism crumbles, revealing the continued operation of systematic narrative control. Legacy media’s authority is crumbling, with frequent exposures of staged narratives and misrepresented sources revealing the persistence of centralized messaging systems.

Even the fact-checking industry, designed to bolster official narratives, faces growing skepticism as people discover that these ‘independent’ arbiters of truth are often funded by the very power structures they claim to monitor. The supposed guardians of truth serve instead as enforcers of acceptable thought, their funding trails leading directly to the organizations they’re meant to oversee.

The public awakening extends beyond corporate messaging to a broader realization that supposedly organic social changes are often engineered. For example, while most people only became aware of the Tavistock Institute through recent controversies about gender-affirming care, their reaction hints at a deeper realization: that cultural shifts long accepted as natural evolution might instead have institutional authors. Though few still understand Tavistock’s historic role in shaping culture since our grandparents’ time, a growing number of people are questioning whether seemingly spontaneous social transformations may have been, in fact, deliberately orchestrated.

This growing recognition signals a fundamental shift: as audiences become more conscious of manipulation methods, the effectiveness of these control systems begins to diminish. Yet the system is designed to provoke intense emotional responses—the more outrageous the better—precisely to prevent critical analysis. By keeping the public in a constant state of reactionary outrage, whether defending or attacking figures like Trump or Musk, it successfully distracts from examining the underlying power structures these figures operate within. The heightened emotional state serves as a perfect shield against rational inquiry.

Before examining today’s digital control mechanisms in detail, the evolution from Edison’s hardware monopolies to Tavistock’s psychological operations to today’s algorithmic control systems reveals more than a natural historical progression—it shows how each stage intentionally built upon the last to achieve the same goal. Physical control of media distribution evolved into psychological manipulation of content, which has now been automated through digital systems. As AI systems become more sophisticated, they don’t just automate these control mechanisms—they perfect them, learning and adapting in real time across billions of interactions.

We can visualize how distinct domains of power—finance, media, intelligence, and culture—have converged into an integrated grid of social control. While these systems initially operated independently, they now function as a unified network, each reinforcing and amplifying the others. This framework, refined over a century, reaches its ultimate expression in the digital age, where algorithms automate what once required elaborate coordination between human authorities.

The Digital Endgame

Today’s digital platforms represent the culmination of control methods developed over the past century. Where their researchers once had to manually study group dynamics and psychological responses, AI systems now perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining their influence techniques through massive data analysis and behavioral tracking. What Thomas Edison achieved through physical control of films, modern tech companies now accomplish through algorithms and automated content moderation.

The convergence of surveillance, algorithms, and financial systems represents not just an evolution in technique but an escalation in scope. This convergence appears by design. Consider that Facebook launched the same day DARPA shut down ‘LifeLog,‘ their project to track a person’s ‘entire existence’ online. Or that major tech platforms now employ numerous former intelligence operatives in their ‘Trust & Safety’ teams, determining what content gets amplified or suppressed. 

Social media platforms capture detailed behavioral data, which algorithms analyze to predict and shape user actions. This data increasingly feeds into financial systems through credit scoring, targeted advertising, and emerging Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Together, these create a closed loop where surveillance refines targeting, shapes economic incentives, and enforces compliance with dominant order norms at the most granular level.

This evolution manifests in concrete ways:

  • Edison’s infrastructure monopoly became platform ownership

  • Tavistock’s psychology studies became social media algorithms

  • Operation Mockingbird’s media infiltration became automated content moderation

  • The Hays Code’s moral controls became ‘community guidelines

More specifically, Edison’s original blueprint for control evolved into digital form:

  • His control of production equipment became platform ownership and cloud infrastructure

  • Theater distribution control became algorithmic visibility

  • Patent enforcement became Terms of Service

  • Financial blacklisting became demonetization

  • His definition of ‘authorized’ content became ‘community standards’”

Edison’s patent monopoly allowed him to dictate which films could be shown and where—just as today’s tech platforms use Terms of Service, IP rights, and algorithmic visibility to determine what content reaches audiences. Where Edison could simply deny theaters access to films, modern platforms can quietly reduce visibility through “shadow banning” or demonetization.

This evolution from manual to algorithmic control reflects a century of refinement. Where the Hays Code explicitly banned content, AI systems now subtly deprioritize it. Where Operation Mockingbird required human editors, recommendation algorithms now automatically shape information flow. The mechanisms haven’t disappeared—they’ve become invisible, automated, and far more effective.

The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated how thoroughly and quickly modern control systems could manufacture consensus and enforce compliance. Within weeks, established scientific principles about natural immunity, outdoor transmission, and focused protection were replaced by a new orthodoxy. 

Social media algorithms were programmed to amplify fear-based content while suppressing alternative viewpoints, while news outlets coordinated messaging to maintain narrative control, and financial pressures ensured institutional compliance. 

Just as Rockefeller’s early capture of medical institutions shaped the boundaries of acceptable knowledge a century ago, the pandemic response demonstrated how thoroughly this system could activate in a crisis. The same mechanisms that once defined ‘scientific’ versus ‘alternative’ medicine now determined which public health approaches could be discussed and which would be systematically suppressed. 

The Great Barrington Declaration scientists found themselves erased not just through typical censorship, but through the invisible hand of algorithmic suppression—their views buried in search results, their discussions flagged as misinformation, their professional reputations questioned by coordinated media campaigns. This trifecta of suppression rendered dissenting perspectives effectively invisible, demonstrating how modern platforms can converge with state power to erase opposition while maintaining the illusion of independent oversight. Most users never realize what they’re not seeing—the most effective censorship is invisible to its targets.

Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter offered a crack of light, exposing previously hidden practices like shadow banning and algorithmic content suppression through the release of the Twitter Files. These revelations demonstrated how thoroughly platforms had integrated government influence into their moderation policies—whether through direct pressure or voluntary compliance—erasing dissent under the guise of ‘maintaining community standards.’ Yet even Musk acknowledged the limits of free expression within this framework, stating that ‘freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom of reach.’ This admission underscores the enduring reality: even under new leadership, platforms remain bound by the algorithms and incentives that shape visibility, influence, and economic viability.

Perhaps the ultimate expression of this evolution is the proposed introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which transform social control mechanisms into financial infrastructure. The merger of ESG metrics with digital currency creates unprecedented granular control—every purchase, every transaction, every economic choice becomes subject to automated social compliance scoring. 

This fusion of financial surveillance with behavioral control represents the ultimate expression of the control systems that began with Edison’s physical monopolies. By embedding surveillance into currency itself, governments and corporations gain the ability to monitor, restrict, and manipulate transactions based on compliance with official criteria—from carbon usage limits to diversity metrics to social credit scores. These systems could render dissent not just punishable, but economically impossible—restricting access to basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation for those who fail to comply with approved behaviors.

What began with Tavistock’s careful study of mass psychology, tested through Facebook’s crude emotion experiments, and perfected through modern algorithmic systems, represents more than a century of evolving social control. Each stage built upon the last: from physical monopolies to psychological manipulation to digital automation. Today’s social media platforms don’t just study human behavior—they shape it algorithmically, automating mass psychological manipulation through billions of daily interactions.

Unplugging from the Matrix: A Path Back to Reality

Understanding these systems is the first step toward liberation. As the machinery of control reaches its peak, so too does the opportunity for resistance. The endgame for centralized power presents a paradox: the same systems designed to limit freedom also expose their own vulnerabilities. 

While the evolution from Edison’s physical monopolies to today’s invisible algorithmic controls may feel overwhelming, it reveals a crucial truth: these mechanisms are constructed—and what is constructed can be dismantled or circumvented.

We can already see glimmers of resistance. As I’ve observed in my investigation of Big Tech’s origins, people are increasingly demanding transparency and authenticity—and once they see these control systems, they don’t unsee them. Public backlash against obvious ideological sculpting—from corporate virtue-signaling campaigns to platform censorship—suggests an awakening to these methods of control. The public rejection of corporate news networks in favor of independent journalism, the mass exodus from manipulative social media platforms to decentralized alternatives, and the growing movement toward local community building all demonstrate how awareness leads to action.

The rise of platforms committed to free speech, even within centralized systems, shows that alternatives to algorithmic manipulation are possible. By championing transparency, reducing reliance on automated content moderation, and supporting the open exchange of ideas, these platforms challenge the status quo and push back against the dominance of centralized narratives. Building on these principles, truly decentralized networks represent our best hope for resistance: by eliminating gatekeepers entirely, they offer the greatest potential to counter hierarchical control and empower authentic expression.

The battle for freedom of consciousness is now our most fundamental struggle. Without it, we are not autonomous actors but non-player characters (NPCs) in someone else’s game, making seemingly free choices within carefully constructed parameters. Each time we question an algorithmic recommendation or seek out independent voices, we crack the control matrix. When we build in-person local communities and support decentralized platforms, we create spaces beyond algorithmic manipulation. These aren’t just acts of resistance—they’re steps toward reclaiming our autonomy as conscious human actors rather than programmed NPCs.

The choice between authentic consciousness and programmed behavior requires daily discernment. We can passively consume curated content or actively seek diverse perspectives. We can accept algorithmic suggestions or consciously choose our information sources. We can isolate ourselves in digital bubbles or build real-world communities of resistance.

Our liberation begins with recognition: these systems of control, though powerful, are not inevitable. They were constructed, and they can be dismantled. By embracing creativity, fostering authentic connection, and restoring our sovereignty, we don’t just resist the control matrix—we reclaim our fundamental right to author our own destiny. The future belongs to those aware enough to see the system, brave enough to reject it, and creative enough to build something better.

*  *  *

Essential Resources for Understanding Power and Influence

Friends and readers often ask where they can learn more about the esoteric topics I explore, particularly the intersections of culture, power, and social control. This curated list of resources has been instrumental in shaping my understanding of how power structures operate, influence, and shape public consciousness. These works span disciplines—from history and psychology to investigative journalism and cultural critique.

I share these not as a definitive roadmap but as an invitation to independent inquiry. In an era when algorithms increasingly shape what we see and think, engaging with diverse, well-researched perspectives becomes an act of empowerment. I hope the resources below serve as valuable starting points for those seeking to understand the deeper systems that shape our world.

Books:

  1. Dave McGowan, Weird Scenes Inside the Canyon
    Detailed investigation of the Laurel Canyon music scene and its military/intelligence connections.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18681494-weird-scenes-inside-the-canyon
  2. John Coleman, The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations
    Inside perspective on one of the key architects of mass psychological manipulation.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7863459-the-tavistock-institute-of-human-relations?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_22
  3. John Coleman, The Committee of 300
    An exploration of the power structures shaping global policies, culture, and narratives.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/105897.The_Committee_of_300
  4. Miles Copeland, The Game of Nations
    Insights from a former CIA operative on covert operations and manipulation of public perception.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1344357.The_Game_of_Nations
  5. Daniel Estulin, Tavistock Institute: Social Engineering the Masses
    Contemporary analysis of ongoing influence operations.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29351771-tavistock-institute
  6. Edward Bernays, Propaganda
    A foundational work on the manipulation of public opinion and the psychology behind mass persuasion.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/191140.Propaganda
  7. Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death
    An exploration of how entertainment and media shape public consciousness and discourse.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/74034.Amusing_Ourselves_to_Death
  8. Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man
    A critical analysis of how media environments influence human perception and behavior.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61786.Understanding_Media
  9. Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
    In-depth exploration of how technology companies exploit personal data for control and profit.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26195941-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism
  10. Mark Crispin Miller, Boxed In: The Culture of TV
    A critique of television as a medium of social and psychological control.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1342360.Boxed_In
  11. Gore Vidal, Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace
    Essays on the military-industrial complex and its ties to media narratives.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53078.Perpetual_War_for_Perpetual_Peace
  12. Jay Dyer, Esoteric Hollywood (Parts 1 & 2)
    A deep dive into the occult, intelligence connections, and symbolic manipulation in Hollywood films.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32851888-esoteric-hollywood
  13. Tom O’Neill, Chaos: Charles Manson, the CIA, and the Secret History of the Sixties
    A riveting investigation into the CIA’s covert experiments and their connections to the counterculture and Charles Manson.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43015073-chaos
  14. The Memoirs of Billy Shears
    Presented as historical fiction, this book delves into the Paul McCartney replacement conspiracy, blending elements of autobiography, cultural critique, and an exploration of The Beatles’ role as a socially engineered phenomenon that shaped and redirected 20th-century youth culture.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31178916-the-memoirs-of-billy-shears
  15. Paul L. Williams, Operation Gladio: The Unholy Alliance Between the Vatican, the CIA, and the Mafia
    A detailed account of covert operations, propaganda, and the intelligence community’s hidden influence on global events.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22245430-operation-gladio
  16. Konstandinos Kalimtgis, Dope, Inc.: Britain’s Opium War Against the World
    An explosive investigation into the global drug trade, exposing its ties to elite financial and political institutions.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16145722-dope-inc 

Essential Voices and Further Investigations:

  1. Mike Williams, Sage of Quay
    Comprehensive documentation of The Beatles, Tavistock, and their role in cultural manipulation.
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtimXpaec1UWO4lHSYNgfvg
  2. Michael Benz, Foundation for Freedom Online
    Current analysis of media manipulation and digital censorship infrastructure.
    https://foundationforfreedomonline.com
  3. Courtney Turner, The Courtney Turner Podcast
    Engaging conversations on cultural engineering, Tavistock’s legacy, and modern social control mechanisms.
    https://www.courtneyturner.com/podcast
  4. Jay Dyer, Jay’s Analysis Deep dives into Hollywood, esoteric symbolism, and the intersection of culture, power, and intelligence networks.
    https://jaysanalysis.com
  5. Solari Report – Catherine Austin Fitts
    A comprehensive resource exploring the financial, geopolitical, and systemic structures shaping global events, with unparalleled research into transparency, hidden systems, and actionable solutions.
    https://home.solari.com
  6. Whitney Webb, Unlimited Hangout
    Investigative reporting on intelligence agencies, corporate power, and media manipulation.
    https://unlimitedhangout.com
  7. Monica Perez, The Monica Perez Show
    Thought-provoking discussions on propaganda, psychological operations, and media narratives.
    https://monicaperezshow.com
  8. Sam Tripoli, Tin Foil Hat Podcast
    Unfiltered conversations exploring alternative theories, hidden histories, and systemic manipulation.
    https://samtripoli.com/tin-foil-hat
  9. William Ramsey Investigates
    In-depth examinations of occult influences, historical conspiracies, and intelligence operations shaping society.
    https://www.williamramseyinvestigates.com
  10. Adam Curtis, The Century of the Self (Documentary)
    A powerful visual journey through the evolution of psychological manipulation in media and advertising.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnPmg0R1M04

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 18:40

Musk Exploring Blockchain Use To Curb US Govt Spending; Report

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Musk Exploring Blockchain Use To Curb US Govt Spending; Report

Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is reportedly exploring implementations of blockchain technology in US government operations to track and reduce federal spending.

According to Bloomberg, the DOGE is also looking at using blockchain to secure data, make payments, and manage buildings as part of the DOGE’s efficiency push.

Personnel from the newly commissioned non-government department have also met with representatives from public permissionless blockchain networks to consult about potential use by the US government.

The initiative is part of Musk’s broader goal of eliminating trillions of dollars from the annual federal budget and ensuring government accountability through transparency.

US government spending vs. tax revenue. Source: Charlie Bilello

Blockchain to force government transparency?

Musk’s push to use blockchain technology to force government transparency is not a new idea in US politics.

In April 2024, former Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he wanted to put the entire federal budget onchain. The politician told an audience at a Michigan rally:

“Every American can look at every budget item in the entire budget, anytime they want, 24 hours a day. We are going to have 300 million eyeballs on our budget. If somebody is spending $16,000 for a toilet seat, everybody will know about it.”

Kennedy’s proposal was met with widespread support from small government and sound money advocates, who argued that US government spending was out of control.

US national debt clock. Source: US Debt Clock

Department of Government Efficiency takes first steps

The Department of Government Efficiency launched its website on Jan. 21 and officially adopted the DOGE logo used by the world’s first memecoin, Dogecoin.

Following the website’s launch, the price of Dogecoin rallied by approximately 11% to $0.38.

On Jan. 20, former Presidential candidate, entrepreneur, and DOGE co-founder Vivek Ramaswamy announced he was stepping away from the project to focus on running for governor of Ohio.

“I’m confident that Elon and his team will succeed in streamlining government,” Ramaswamy wrote in an X post, hinting at his plans to run for office in an official capacity.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 17:30

NATO, Sweden, Latvia On High Alert After Baltic Undersea Data Cable “Damaged”

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NATO, Sweden, Latvia On High Alert After Baltic Undersea Data Cable “Damaged”

The third severing of an undersea cable in just three months occurred on Sunday, this time between Latvia and Sweden in the Baltic Sea. The incident has prompted a criminal investigation and heightened concerns of potential sabotage by Russia or China.

Latvia’s State Radio and Television Center, a data transmission provider, released this statement about the damaged cable connecting Ventspils in Latvia and Sweden’s Gotland island:

In the early morning of January 26, the submarine fiber optic cable of the Latvian State Radio and Television Centre (hereinafter – LVRTC) in the Baltic Sea was damaged. The LVRTC Data Transmission Monitoring System recorded disruptions in data transmission services on the Ventspils – Gotland (Fårösund) section. LVRTC continues to provide services using other data transmission routes. Currently, there is a possible delay in data transmission speed, but it does not affect end users in Latvia for the most part.

Prime Minister Evika Silina commented about the incident on X:

Early morning today we received information that the data cable from Latvia to Sweden was damaged in the Baltic Sea, in the section that is located in the Exclusive economic zone of Sweden. We are working together with our Swedish Allies and NATO on investigating the incident, including to patrolling the area, as well as inspecting the vessels that were in the area. Authorities have intensified information exchange and started criminal investigation.

Sweden, Latvia, and NATO are on high alert:

Over the past 18 months, three alarming incidents have been reported in which commercial ships traveling to or from Russian ports are suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltic region.

Source: WaPo 

Washington Post recently cited Western officials who said these cable incidents are likely maritime accidents – not sabotage by Russia and/or China. 

Due to all the cable severing risks, intentional and unintentional, a report from late November via TechCrunch said Meta planned a new “W” formation undersea cable route around the world to “avoid areas of geopolitical tension.” 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 16:55

DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases

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DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department reversed the agency’s position on a redistricting dispute currently before the U.S. Supreme Court. At the same time, the department asked the justices to halt the processing of pending student loan and environmental regulation cases.

The new court filings were issued on Jan. 24, days after President Donald Trump was inaugurated.

Position changes in high-profile court cases often take place when a new party assumes the presidency. After President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, the Department of Justice (DOJ) also changed position on several court cases that were pending at the time.

The DOJ’s new court filings leave the door open to the Supreme Court resuming processing of the student debt and environmental cases in the future, but also suggest the cases may become moot if the Trump administration decides to undo the Biden administration policies that prompted the various lawsuits.

Acting Solicitor General Sarah M. Harris, who is currently the Trump administration’s top lawyer at the Supreme Court, said in a new court filing that the DOJ has changed its position in the redistricting case.

She is also asking the court to halt all written briefing deadlines in the student loan case and two environmental cases, which would suspend the processing of those cases indefinitely. Before the court hears oral argument in a case, it typically asks the litigants to file briefs outlining the legal arguments they intend to make.

In legal parlance, Harris filed motions to hold the briefing schedule in those three cases in abeyance. In other words, she asked the court to suspend briefings until the new administration can decide how to proceed.

Trump has nominated attorney John Sauer as solicitor general. Sauer, who was Missouri’s solicitor general from 2017, represented Trump at the Supreme Court in his successful bid for immunity after being prosecuted for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Student Debt Case

Harris filed an abeyance motion with the Supreme Court in U.S. Department of Education v. Career Colleges and Schools of Texas. The court granted the petition on Jan. 10. The oral argument has not been scheduled.

An association of colleges challenged the Biden-era Department of Education’s rule establishing the procedures that student borrowers can follow to show that they were defrauded by the schools they attended and thereby qualify for student loan forgiveness. Some borrowers claim that schools committed fraud by using unethical recruitment tactics or by advertising exaggerated post-graduation job placement figures.

A lower court issued a ruling halting the department-directed expansion of defenses that student loan borrowers can use to contest repayment.

“After the change in Administration, the Acting Secretary of Education has determined that the Department should reassess the basis for and soundness of the Department’s borrower-defense regulations,” Harris wrote in the motion.

California Emissions Dispute

Harris filed an abeyance motion with the high court in Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The Supreme Court agreed on Dec. 13, 2024, to decide whether it would revive a lawsuit filed by energy companies over California’s tough vehicle emissions standards. The court has not yet scheduled oral argument in the case.

A lower court ruled that California had the authority to regulate tailpipe emissions. That court held that the energy companies bringing the legal action could not demonstrate that they had legal standing to sue, meaning they couldn’t show a strong enough connection to the claim to justify their participation in the lawsuit.

Energy companies told the Supreme Court in their petition that they will suffer economic harm if California, whose state economy is large, is allowed to continue imposing vehicle emissions standards that are more stringent than those mandated by the federal government.

California’s policy stances are influential, and several states have already adopted its regulatory framework for automobiles. California says its policies are needed to fight climate change by driving down demand for liquid fuel.

“After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the 2022 reinstatement decision,” Harris wrote, referring to a regulatory action taken by the EPA.

“Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine whether petitioners had Article III standing to challenge that decision.”

Article III of the U.S. Constitution governs federal courts and has been interpreted as stating those courts may only hear cases involving actual controversies in which at least one litigant has standing to sue.

Other Environmental Cases

The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to pause the processing of two other cases that dispute EPA actions.

Both are about the federal Clean Air Act, which provides that challenges to “nationally applicable regulations” may “be filed only” in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

In the first case, Oklahoma v. EPA, which has been consolidated with Pacificorp v. EPA, Oklahoma and other states argue that state disputes over EPA policies should be heard in regional circuit courts, rather than in the nation’s capital.

The Supreme Court granted the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. No oral argument has yet been scheduled.

At issue is the EPA’s “good neighbor” rule that cracks down on states whose industries are said to be contributing to smog.

The Clean Air Act requires each state to adopt an implementation plan to comply with national standards, which the EPA then reviews, but in 2023, the agency drafted its own rule after rejecting 23 states’ plans for meeting national ozone standards.

In February 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit determined that challenges to EPA disapproval of the state plans could be filed only in the D.C. Circuit.

The Supreme Court voted 5–4 on June 27, 2024, to temporarily put the EPA’s rule on hold. The court held that the emissions-reduction standards established by the EPA’s plan would probably cause irreversible harm to several of the affected states unless the plan were stayed until it could be reviewed by the lower courts.

The states said the regulation was illegal, costly, and could lead to blackouts, while the EPA said the rule was urgently needed to fight air pollution. They said the EPA’s plan undermines the principles of the Clean Air Act.

In the second case, EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, oil refineries argue they should be exempted from a federal mandate that the gasoline they produce should be made with a percentage of ethanol.

The Supreme Court approved the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. Oral argument has not been scheduled by the court.

The EPA argued the case should be heard by the D.C. Circuit, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found in November 2023 that it—and not the D.C. Circuit—was the proper forum for that appeal.

Harris used identical language in part of the Oklahoma v. EPA abeyance motion and the EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining abeyance motion.

“After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the underlying disapproval action,” Harris wrote. “Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine the proper venue for challenges to that action.”

Redistricting Case

In the redistricting case, the Supreme Court decided on Nov. 4, 2024, the day before the presidential election, to take up the racial gerrymandering dispute known as Louisiana v. Callais, which was consolidated with the related case of Robinson v. Callais.

Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or constituency.

A federal district judge in 2022 had ordered the Republican-controlled Louisiana State Legislature to revise its electoral map, which provided for one black-majority congressional district, because it discriminated against black voters, who constitute almost one-third of the state’s population.

The Legislature complied, approving a new map that featured two black-majority districts. Map opponents told the Supreme Court in briefs that the new redistricting plan discriminated against non-black voters.

A panel of three federal district judges then sided with the non-black voters, determining in April 2024 that the map could not be used in upcoming elections. The Supreme Court intervened and stayed that order, allowing the map to be used.

Harris told the justices in a Jan. 24 letter that the Biden-era DOJ filed a friend-of-the-court brief on Dec. 23, 2024, arguing that there was “a strong basis in evidence” for the single federal district judge to believe a new map had to be drawn to bring the state into compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act. On Jan. 16, while Biden was still president, the DOJ also asked to participate in the oral argument of the case.

But with “the change in Administration, the Department of Justice has reconsidered the government’s position in these cases,” and the Biden-era brief “no longer represents the position of the United States.”

The DOJ is also “withdrawing its pending motion to participate in the oral argument,” Harris wrote.

Oral argument in the case has not yet been scheduled.

It is unclear when the Supreme Court will respond to the change in position in the redistricting case and to the abeyance motions.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 16:20

Goldman Finds “More Nuclear & Fewer EVs” As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme

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Goldman Finds “More Nuclear & Fewer EVs” As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme

There is a lot to unpack in Goldman’s note, “US Policy Implications: Reliability, AI/Data Center Power Surge, More Nuclear/Fewer EVs,” which discusses President Trump’s “energy emergency” executive orders alongside the private sector announcement of the Stargate AI infrastructure project. 

Goldman analysts Brian Singer, Brendan Corbett, and others noted that despite President Trump’s executive order freezing all Inflation Reduction Act funding disbursements, they remain “bullish on multiple sustainable themes” because of corporate/consumer/policymaker/regulator priority:

  • Reliability of energy, power and water supply.

  • Efficiency innovation towards energy, land and resource use. AI/Data Center power demand growth and willingness by Big Tech/hyperscalers to pay Green Reliability Premiums in support of nuclear generation and multiple other Clean Reliable virtual/on-site power sourcing.

  • Increased embrace by Sustainable Investors of the need for AI and Automation to fill rising labor challenges accelerated by aging populations in developed economies with tailwinds for Reskilling/Education/Womenomics stocks.

The team of analysts noted a convergence of multiple drivers impacting Sustainable Investing themes and the broader US economy in 2025 that only provides tailwinds for other themes, including “Reliability, Efficiency, AI/Automation, Training/Reskilling, Womenomics, and Affordability/Access. ” 

They see tailwinds for Green Capex to support growth and infrastructure modernization… 

The analysts next provided a breakdown of President Trump’s executive orders related to energy and AI announced last week:

In the first days of the new US Administration, President Trump issued executive orders declaring a National Energy Emergency, reviewing wind energy permitting and promoting affordable/reliable energy and domestic natural resources.

What was broadly consistent with our prior reports. Much of the policy and priorities were in-line with discussions in Washington in October, our post-election outlook and our 2025 outlook, in particular regarding:

  • Prioritizing acceleration of permitting processes for US energy/power/minerals development.

  • De-emphasis on EVs and offshore wind.

  • Suspension of further IRA loans/grants.

  • Broad support for nuclear.

  • Broad support for infrastructure/AI/data centers.

What was not consistent with our prior reports. Beyond the topics discussed in our prior reports, the executive orders issued in the opening days of the Administration:

  • Call for a suspension of federal permitting for onshore wind projects pending the completion of a comprehensive assessment and review of Federal wind leasing and permitting practices.

  • Pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act pending a 90-day review of processes, policies, and programs for issuing grants, loans, contracts, or any other financial disbursements of such appropriated funds for consistency with the law.

  • Supply and maintain a critical minerals National Defense Stockpile.

Four investment takeaways for key 2025 themes.

  • In aggregate, the policy initiatives broadly support our bullish outlook for investment towards Reliability of power, energy and water which we believe will be a priority of regulators, policymakers, corporates and consumers.

  • The increased focus on affordability we believe is bullish for the broad theme of Efficiency — energy, resources and land.

  • Support for AI/data centers benefits companies in the supply chain of the AI/data center global power surge, in our view, including those providing low-carbon solutions.

  • At the same time there remain uncertainties, most importantly over the sustainability of IRA tax incentives and outlook for federal permitting of onshore wind. Not all onshore wind projects require federal permits, suggesting greater nuance regarding company-specific impact.

The analysts turned their focus on “AI/data centers’ global power surge: Continue to see aggressive US/global growth, all-in approach to power sourcing.” This coincides with our “The Next AI Trade” note in April 2024.  

Here’s more from the analysts about the data center power surge that will boost demand on the grids through the end of the decade:

Our analysis suggests a 160%-165% increase in data center power demand by 2030 vs. 2023 levels. In the US, this implies that data centers will contribute a ~1% CAGR to overall US power demand; our Utilities team in its April 2024 report expects overall US power demand CAGR of 2.4% through 2030. We see data centers adding a 0.3% CAGR to overall global power demand. Our base case implies data center power demand moves from 1%-2% of overall global power demand to 3%-4% by 2030. In the US, the pace of mix increase is even greater, more than doubling by 2030 from 4% in 2023. If global data center growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels were its own country, it would be a top 10 global power consumer.

However.

The analysts cautioned that, amid the surge in data center power demand, five potential constraints could pose significant risks to their updated base case of a 160% jump in global data center power demand growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels: 

  1. Will AI server shipments be constrained by data center capacity? Our analysis led by our Telecom Infrastructure team suggests a tightening market for data center real estate in the coming years but sufficient capacity for our base case expectations for power demand.

  2. Will data center capacity be constrained by power infrastructure? Our analysis led by our Utilities team suggests a combination of new generation additions and greater utilization of existing capacity will be sufficient to meet data center power demand with transmission/interconnection the greatest risk. The investment split of the intended $500 bn Stargate project into AI servers vs. other infrastructure remains unclear. Broadly, we believe a $50 bn purchase of high-powered AI servers would lead to about 8-17 TWh of annual power demand, depending on power intensity of the servers purchased (new gen vs. older gen).

  3. Will power infrastructure be constrained by low-carbon optionality/cost? We believe Big Tech will continue to take an all-in approach to data center power sourcing, with continued willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums while at the same time prioritizing time-to-market. We estimate the impact of major hyperscalers absorbing Green Reliability Premiums consistent with our recent AI/data center power surge report represents a modest 2%-3% of EBITDA and a minimal impact on >30% corporate returns. We note that Microsoft’s CEO noted continued intentions to achieve 2030 decarbonization objectives in a CNBC interview on January 22, and Amazon’s Chief Sustainability Officer was quoted in a press report as staying course on low-carbon goals.

  4. Will new-gen AI chips drive lower or higher aggregate power demand? We assume Big Tech cash flow/budgets will be the key constraint, leaving upside risk if there are no constraints and downside risk if compute speed demand is finite. We continue to see more risk to the upside (i.e., fewer capital constraints) while AI is in the training phase.

  5. Will AI server demand be constrained by AI results/innovations? This will remain key to watch, particularly from a Sustainability perspective whether we see accelerated efficiency solutions in the health care, energy, agriculture and education sectors.

The analysts then shifted their focus on “underinvestment in infrastructure” amid tailwinds by the Trump administration, plus ongoing power demand shift higher: 

We believe the confluence of rising power demand, historical underinvestment in infrastructure and rising temperatures/more extreme weather events will continue to drive rising tailwinds for investments in Reliability — primarily of Power/Energy and Water. We continue to see opportunity for investment in stocks levered to the theme globally, which we believe will be a priority for both policymakers and corporate/residential consumers.

Infrastructure replacement and hardening both necessitate Reliability investment. Our meetings with corporates, regulators and policymakers in 2024 indicated increased recognition of the need for grid/water infrastructure hardening and modernization. This is due to both underinvestment in recent years as well as a wider range of expected temperatures between summer and winter. We believe both policymakers and regulators will look to reduce risk of outages and as such prioritize measures that would improve Reliability and Resiliency.

Adaptation will likely be a rising theme regardless of climate outcome, in our view. We believe the growing realization of potential risks/impacts/opportunities as global temperatures rise will serve to further investor and corporate focus on Adaptation. Since 1970, the world has seen an acceleration in temperature rise vs. the 1850-1900 average, per Berkeley Earth data. In the near to medium term we believe investors and corporates will take increased measures to quantify physical risks, increase investments towards Adaptation mitigation/solutions and look for new ways of gaining exposure to Adaptation solutions. Our meetings with regulators and corporates suggest recognition of the need to invest to mitigate Reliability risk from extreme weather events or more volatile summer/winter temperatures via investment in water/power solutions.

Generational growth will act as a further tailwind for infrastructure spending. We expect electricity demand growth in the US and Europe to accelerate to levels not seen in a generation, a function of electrification (Europe and US), AI/broader data center demand (US and Europe) and industrialization/reshoring (US). Also, with an eye on reducing risk of outages, we believe regulators will support investments to meet rising demand, with particular support for affordable technologies that advance meeting demand and reliability goals. We also see regionalization driving increased water infrastructure needs in select geographies.

Reliability a driver of recent US power M&A. On January 10, Constellation Energy (CEG, Coverage Suspended) announced plans to acquire privately held company Calpine, which would fuse Constellation’s largely nuclear generation fleet with Calpine’s largely natural gas generation fleet. The companies in their statement announcing the deal highlighted the increased need for Reliability amid rising demand growth, in particular from data centers.

Goldman’s Utilities Research teams provided their outlook on US electricity consumption…

To conclude, the analysts said a more significant shift is underway within the Trump era: “Accelerated nuclear generation expansion combined with reductions in incentives for electric vehicles in the US may not derail overall Green Capex while potentially leading to net lower long-term carbon emissions.” 

Let’s not forget that in December 2020, one of our major themes was the nuclear trade.

Separately, on Saturday, we provided readers with Michael Hartnett’s latest Flow Show, which shows the 10 biggest themes through the end of the decade. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/26/2025 – 15:45