Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Following a last ditch preemptive pardon by Joe Biden in his final hours as President, Anthony Fauci has claimed that he did nothing wrong, but appears to be accepting the pardon anyway.

The pardon, along with ones for all members of the January 6th Select Committee and General Mark Milley, was announced via Biden’s X account.

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent says Fauci told him that the pardon is “appreciated,” but that he still claims complete innocence in regards to his role as head of NIH and the funding of dangerous gain of function ‘research’ from which, it is now generally accepted, came the COVID pandemic.

Dr. Fauci said he is grateful because the threats and possibility of a politically motivated prosecution “creates immeasurable and intolerable distress on me and my family.”

— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) January 20, 2025

If he’s innocent, why does he need a pardon?

He doesn’t have to accept the pardon. If he did nothing wrong be a man and turn it down… But you know he won’t because everyone knows he’s guilty of so much. https://t.co/e2QKoHaUPb

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) January 20, 2025

If you’re not guilty of a crime, you don’t need a pardon. This is Biden’s way of deeply cementing his disdainful legacy further down into the sewer.

— JC Disciple AF Vet (@krew_ny) January 20, 2025

Accepting a pardon is a de facto admission of the crime. There is legal precedent. U.S. Supreme Court case Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915).

— Crowdsource The Truth (@JG_CSTT) January 20, 2025

If you accept the pardon you admit you committed a crime. pic.twitter.com/x0BZBdC1s8

— Cheesed Hammer (@CheesedHammer) January 20, 2025

Exactly. If he has done nothing, decline the pardon.

— Bompa (@RichPrusha) January 20, 2025

A pardon can only be issued for a specific crime. He cannot lawfully issue blanket pardons

— Crooked Joe (@Cr00k3dJoe) January 20, 2025

pic.twitter.com/lbvlC6O8G2

— Rhett Butler (@rhettmbutler) January 20, 2025

I guess Biden agrees they committed the crime.

At least he’s on the same page with us on something.

— Joel Fischer 🇺🇸 (@realJoelFischer) January 20, 2025

Dems know that there won’t be any political backlash for Biden because his political career is over. It’d be interesting to know who is really behind that decision.

— Ani Abello (@ANIABELLO_R) January 20, 2025

Does the pardon cover Fauci for just COVID or the AIDS/HIV scandal too?

Fauci forced people with AIDS to take his AZT drug which ended up taking the life of 330K people:

“Anthony Fauci at that time was trying to ban any kind of therapeutic drugs. He was trying to steer all of the business toward AZT…” pic.twitter.com/8gmnaqHkKh

— “Sudden And Unexpected” (@toobaffled) January 17, 2025

Is Fauci pardoned for his crimes ONLY during COVID?

Can we prosecute him for his role in the AIDS epidemic in 1985?

How is any of this allowed?

— Joey Mannarino (@JoeyMannarinoUS) January 20, 2025

Authored by Shawn Musgrave via TheIntercept.com,

In less than 30 minutes on Monday, Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency were hit with four different lawsuits over the legal status of the effort to find federal regulations to eliminate and federal employees to fire.

The lawsuits landed as Musk rubbed elbows with fellow billionaires at President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

As Trump crowed during his speech about DOGE and sending astronauts to Mars, government watchdogs and civil society organizations filed litigation claiming DOGE violates federal law because of its structure and secrecy.

“Currently, DOGE is operating unchecked, without authorization or funding from Congress and is led by unelected billionaires who are not representative of ordinary Americans,” said Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, in a statement announcing one of the lawsuits, which it filed alongside the American Federation of Teachers and other groups.

Another lawsuit was filed by National Security Counselors, a nonprofit law firm.

The third lawsuit came courtesy of Public Citizen, a consumer protection group, and the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union for federal workers.

Unions have spent the months since the election steeling themselves for a fight over DOGE.

The fourth suit, from the Center for Biological Diversity, per Politico “…seeks all records from the Office of Management and Budget relating to DOGE. ”

Although DOGE is styled as a “department,” Trump lacks the legal authority to create official departments without legislation from Congress.

(During his speech, Trump also said he would establish an “External Revenue Service” to collect his promised tariffs, which would also require a statute.)

The four lawsuits, filed in federal court in Washington, all allege that DOGE flouts the Federal Advisory Committee Act. The law requires certain committees that advise the federal government to follow particular procedures, including drafting a formal charter and holding public meetings, which DOGE has not done.  

“The advice and guidance that Mr. Trump has charged DOGE with producing is sweeping and consequential,” said Public Citizen in an emailed statement.

“DOGE — the members of which currently do not represent the interests of everyday Americans — will be considering cuts to government agencies and programs that protect health, benefits, consumer finance, and product safety.”

In its statement, CREW said:

“DOGE representatives have reportedly already been speaking with agency officials throughout the federal government, and communication is allegedly taking place on Signal, a messaging app known for its auto-delete features.”

The initial fight will be over whether DOGE fits the criteria of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. The litigants argue it does since it is “an advisory committee charged by Mr. Trump with providing advice or recommendations to the President and to one or more federal agencies regarding regulatory and fiscal matters,” as Public Citizen asserts in its filing.

Since Trump’s victory in November, Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who Trump also tapped to lead DOGE, have been busy staffing up the effort with Silicon Valley types and finding office space, including potentially inside the federal Office of Management and Budget.

(Ramaswamy is expected to step away later this month to run for governor in Ohio.)

DOGE’s “intended goal is clear,” according to the National Security Counselors’ suit, which named both Musk and Ramaswamy personally as defendants, along with Trump and other officials. The suit says “recommendations made by unaccountable outsiders without transparent deliberations which will reduce the size of the federal workforce by whatever means necessary.”

CREW’s lawsuit names DOGE, the federal Office of Management and Budget, and the acting head of OMB as defendants, while Public Citizen’s names just Trump and OMB.

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order on Monday suspending all US foreign assistance programs for 90 days while his staff reviews whether they are aligned with his policy goals.

According to the EO, the “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values,” and “serve to destabilize world peace by promoting ideas in foreign countries that are directly inverse to harmonious and stable relations internal to and among countries.”

Trump also declared that “no further United States foreign assistance shall be disbursed in a manner that is not fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President of the United States.”

It’s unclear how much assistance will initially be affected by the Monday order, as funding for many programs has already been appropriated by congress and is obligated to be spent, AP reports.

Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that “very dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?“

Monday’s EO leaves those decisions up to Rubio, or a Rubio designee, in consultation with the Office of Management and Budget – with the State Department and the US Agency for International Development being the primary agencies which oversee such foreign assistance.

Trump has long railed against foreign aid despite the fact that such assistance typically amounts to roughly 1% of the federal budget, except under unusual circumstances such as the billions in weaponry provided to Ukraine. Trump has been critical of the amount shipped to Ukraine to help bolster its defenses against Russia’s invasion.

The last official accounting of foreign aid in the Biden administration dates from mid-December and budget year 2023. It shows that $68 billion had been obligated for programs abroad that range from disaster relief to health and pro-democracy initiatives in 204 countries and regions. -AP

Of course, Egypt ($1.5 billion / year + 1 US Congressman), Israel ($3.3 billion / year and most of Congress), and Jordan ($1.7 billion / year) are unlikely to see much of a reduction, as those amounts have been included in long-term packages, and are in some cases governed by treaty obligations.

During Trump’s first term, he moved to reduce foreign aid spending – suspending payments to certain UN agencies, including the UN Population Fund, as well as funding to the Palestinian Authority. Trump also pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council, along with its financial obligations, while the Biden administration pulled funding from the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

President Trump fired four high-profile presidential appointees just after midnight Tuesday, including Gen. Mark Milley, and Biden’s top envoy to Iran, Brian Hook (who also served in the role during Trump’s first term).

“Our first day in the White House is not over yet! My Presidential Personnel Office is actively in the process of identifying and removing over a thousand Presidential Appointees from the previous Administration, who are not aligned with our vision to Make America Great Again,” Trump wrote on Truth social just after midnight Tuesday.

“Let this serve as Official Notice of Dismissal for these 4 individuals, with many more, coming soon,” Trump said before listing off the four officials in the post that ended with “YOU’RE FIRED!”

Hook was fired from the Wilson Center, Milley from the National Infrastructure Advisory Council, while celebrity chef José Andrés was chopped from the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition, and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Bottoms was axed from the President’s Export Council, after she dropped out of the Atlanta mayor’s race to work as a senior advisor on Biden’s reelection campaign. 

Andrés, the founder of World Central Kitchen, has questioned whether Trump can carry out his ambitious deportation plans, and seems to be considering a future in politics himself.

The celebrity chef said he submitted his resignation from the post last week and that his term was already up. He elaborated that he was “honored” to work as the co-chair and asked Trump to allow the council to continue its work. -The Hill

“I’m proud of what we accomplished on behalf of the American people…like a historic partnership between the White House and every major sports league to increase access to sports and health programs for kids,” Andres posted Tuesday morning on X.

Coast Guard Commandant Fired

Meanwhile, the acting secretary of Homeland Security removed the Coast Guard commandant from her position, according to USNI News.

Adm. Linda Fagan, the first female commandant of the Coast Guard who assumed duties on June 1, 2022, was terminated over issues with recruitment, operational concerns, and a focus on diversity, equity and inclusion.

“Under my statutory authority as the Acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security I have relieved Admiral Linda L. Fagan of her duties as Commandant of the United States Coast Guard. She served a long and illustrious career, and I thank her for her service to our nation,” reads an ALCOAST message.

Bye Felicias…

By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

Bally’s, the big casino operator, is selling shares only to women and minorities in its new gambling resort mecca being built in Chicago’s River West neighborhood. A minority preference of some kind was a condition to city approval of the project, and this is what the city and Bally’s agreed to.

Yes, that appears blatantly illegal, but wait to understand the deal before deciding whether it’s truly doing any favor for women and minorities. Opinions may vary on that. The offering is being promoted by the City of Chicago Treasurer and some city aldermen.

Let’s start with city officials hyping the sale, as reported by The Triibe. Last Thursday, “City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and members of the Chicago Aldermanic Black Caucus hosted an information session in the 21st Ward, the city’s largest Black ward, to inform residents about an opportunity for minorities and women to “create generational wealth” by buying shares in Bally’s Chicago, Inc.

“The most captivating part,” The Triibe wrote, “was when residents learned that they could put up as little as $250 of their own funds to partake in the investment that presenters expressed as the biggest benefit to the Black community.”

“Generational wealth”? “Captivating”? “Benefit to black community”?

Here’s the deal that’s offered, which is detailed in the company’s S-1 filing with the Securities Exchange Commission and other company materials: Instead of just buying one share for $25,000, a buyer can put up as little as $250 and Bally’s will loan you the remainder of the purchase price. You thus buy an “Interest,” as it’s called in the offering documents.

A buyer will never see any dividends until the loan is repaid plus interest at 11% annually, compounded quarterly, and that could be a long, long time, if ever. The company says in its S-1 that it currently expects not to have cash available for distribution until approximately three to five years after the Chicago facility opens, which they are targeting for September 2026. “However, this may fluctuate depending on ”the ability to generate cash from operations and its cash flow needs and payments on senior debt.” At 11% compounded quarterly, the loan balance would double in less than six and a half years.

The good news is that the loans are nonrecourse, meaning a buyer is not personally liable for repayment; only the shares that would be bought with the loan is at risk. A buyer therefore could put down the small amount of $250 in exchange for a hope and a prayer that everything will go well and the investment eventually pays off.

That’s not necessarily irrational, being akin to buying a cheap, out-of-the-money option on a stock. Kind of like playing a slot machine though hopefully with fair odds. I can’t assess whether it’s a fair bet of that type. But it’s hardly a ticket to “generational wealth.” The Interests are indeed highly risky and speculative, just as the offering documents say.

The Interests are subject to extensive transfer restrictions and won’t, at least initially, be traded on any public exchange, so “you may find it difficult to sell your Class A Interests,” as the S-1 mildly puts it.

If that’s not enough, read the Risk Factors section of the S-1 – all 40 pages of it. It’s daunting, to put it mildly. Also daunting is the corporate structure behind the process through which earnings would flow to pay off the loans.

All this comes as concerns mount that the gambling business in Illinois is cannibalizing itself through the proliferation of betting sites and methods. That was reflected in the most recent report last year by Illinois Commission on Governmental Forecasting and Accountability. There “are concerns of oversaturation,” as the report put it, and Illinois casino revenue was essentially flat from 2023 to 2024.

Aside from all women, the minorities for whom the offering is open is broad and vague. It includes pretty much any group that the City of Chicago decides is disadvantaged, which you can see in the relevant section from the S-1, reproduced below.

Loop Capital Markets LLC is the lead placement agent on the offering, meaning they quarterback the deal for Bally’s. Loop is a prominent, politically connected, minority-owned financial firm in Chicago.

City of Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin is perhaps among the politicians least qualified to be promoting the deal. She was fined last year for violating the government ethics ordinance by firing whistleblowers and improperly using city resources. We’ve criticized her here for failing to provide even the most basic information that should be expected from a treasurer and for a misguided divestiture from fossil fuel makers.

Ald. Ronnie Mosley (21st Ward) was also there Thursday night boosting the deal. “Tonight is about a new opportunity on how to participate, about not just being a consumer but to be an owner,” he told the crowd of a couple hundred people, according to The Tribe.  

They apparently sold many in the room at Thursday’s event, according to The Triibe, whose article also reads like a puff piece. They quoted one attendee from Chicago’s Chatham neighborhood who said, “It’s so many ways you can invest. I mean, to go from $250 all the way to $25,000, I mean, if you don’t have any money and all you have is 250 and they let you in,” she said. “That’s, like, a no-brainer for me, and then it’s a no recourse loan, so therefore you’re not liable for it if it [the project] doesn’t go through.”

Could the deal be challenged as illegal discrimination? Yes, absolutely. I can think of no plausible defense to such a challenge and I have found no precedent for a similarly exclusionary securities offering.

Is it the type of deal that should be sold for minorities to build “generational wealth”? Absolutely not.

*  *  *

Groups eligible to buy interests, from S-1:

This offering is only being made to individuals and entities that satisfy the Class A Qualification Criteria (as defined herein). Our Host Community Agreement with the City of Chicago requires that 25% of Bally’s Chicago OpCo’s equity must be owned by persons that have satisfied the Class A Qualification Criteria. The Class A Qualification Criteria include, among other criteria, that the person:

• if an individual, must be a woman; ​
• if an individual, must be a Minority, as defined by MCC 2-92-670(n) (see below); or
• if an entity, must be controlled by women or Minorities.

​MCC 2-92-670(n), in turn, defines Minority as:

• any individual in the following racial or ethnic groups:
• African-Americans or Blacks (including persons having origins in any of the Black racial groups of Africa);
• American Indians (including persons having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central America) and who maintain tribal affiliation or community attachment);
• Asian-Americans (including persons whose origins are in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, the islands of the Pacific or the Northern Marianas or the Indian Subcontinent);
• Hispanics (including persons of Spanish culture with origins in Mexico, South or Central America or the Caribbean Islands, regardless of race); and
• individual members of other groups, including but not limited to Arab-Americans, found by the City of Chicago to be socially disadvantaged by having suffered racial or ethnic prejudice or cultural bias within American society, without regard to individual qualities, resulting in decreased opportunities to compete in Chicago area markets or to do business with the City of Chicago. Qualification under this clause is determined on a case-by-case basis and there is no exhaustive or definitive list of groups or individuals that the City of Chicago has determined to qualify as Minority under this clause. However, in the event the City of Chicago identifies any additional groups or individuals as falling under this clause in the future, members of such groups would satisfy the Class A Qualification Criteria.

Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stanley Druckenmiller stated Monday that “animal spirits” have returned to the market, fueled by “giddy” CEOs anticipating Trump’s return to the White House. Speaking to CNBC, the billionaire investor argued that the U.S. economy is shifting from “the most anti-business administration” in history to the most business-friendly administration. 

REBECCA QUICK: A lot of people have been wondering how you’re feeling about things, just from a market’s perspective, from an economy perspective. What do you have to say today?

STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: The economy is very interesting. We’re at a very low unemployment rate, essentially 4%, with 3% GDP growth. I’ve been doing this for 49 years, and we’re probably moving from the most anti-business administration to the opposite. We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground, and I’d say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. We’re believers in animal spirits. Paul Ryan was on your show last week talking about a 32% increase in business confidence over the last 12 months, which is probably a record in terms of change.

So the economy looks very strong, at least for the next six months, which is about as far out as one can see with any degree of confidence.

In terms of the markets, I would say it’s complicated. Despite what I just said about all the wonderful things about the economy, we have an earnings yield to bond yield ratio that’s probably the most unattractive level in 30 years.

So you’ll have this push of a strong economy versus rising bond yields in response to that strong economy, and that makes it hard to have a strong opinion one way or the other on the market.

I will say this: in my business, every change creates change in security prices, and having this kind of radical shift from one administration to another, in addition to what’s going on in the private sector with innovation, then you’ve got deregulation from the government, disruption. I think there’s going to be plenty of chance, plenty for your viewers to do. I wouldn’t worry about the market, I would focus on individual stocks. 

“Ross will be freed too.”

Those five words, posted by Elon Musk to his X account, sent the odds of a pardon for Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht soaring to near certainty.

According to a contract on Polymarket, the odds of a Ulbricht pardon are now above 90%…

A petition calling for clemency for Ulbricht on freeross.org has gathered over 600,000 signatures since his incarceration.

The petition has garnered support from those who argue his life sentence is excessive and unjust, and from some bitcoiners that uphold Silk Road’s libertarian ideals.

As CoinDesk’s Sam Reynolds reports, Trump first promised to pardon Ulbricht during a campaign stop at the Libertarian National Convention last May.

“If you vote for me, on Day 1, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served,” Trump said during a speech last year.

“He’s already served 11 years, we’re gonna get him home.”

“On day one, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht.”

— Trump pic.twitter.com/k9WV5i7lf5

— Alan ₿ Watts ⚡️ (@alanbwt) January 21, 2025

Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole in 2015 for his role in the operation of the Silk Road marketplace, which pioneered the use of the dark web.

Supporters of Ulbricht say that his sentence was disproportionately long for the crime.

Elsewhere on the Polymarket pardon list is Roger Ver, an early bitcoin investor and bitcoin cash (BCH) advocate, who was indicted for tax fraud last April, and the market is giving a 32% chance of a pardon taking place in the first 100 days.

Despite crypto playing a prominent part of Trump’s campaign, Polymarket bettors are only giving a 43% of a crypto executive order, regarding the use, trading, or legal status of digital assets, happening in the first week.

President Donald Trump wrapped up the greatest political comeback in modern American history on Jan. 20 by taking the oath of office at the Capitol in front of some of his most prominent supporters and opponents.

In the inaugural address, the president envisioned a bold agenda and announced a spree of executive actions to set it in motion the same day. He declared national emergencies regarding energy and the southern border, designated Mexican drug cartels as global terrorist groups, and declared that it is the policy of the United States that there are two genders.

The president recalled the unprecedented challenges he overcame during the campaign, including prosecutions by state and federal authorities, the raid of his home in Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and two attempts on his life.

“I was saved by God to make America great again,” he said.

President Donald Trump delivers his inaugural address after being sworn in as the 47th president of the United States inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. SHAWN THEW/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Long before the assassination attempts and the prosecutions, Trump was banned from Twitter, Facebook, and other platforms when he announced his run for office in November 2022. As an illustration of the acuteness of the reversal of his fortunes, the CEOs of the same companies that barred him from their social media sat alongside Trump’s family and Cabinet members as the president delivered his address.

In contrast to his first inauguration, Ivan Pentchoukov writes below for The Epoch Times, Trump takes power having reshaped the Republican Party in the image of his America-first worldview. The comeback isn’t limited to politics. With Trump at the front line of the culture war in and out of office, conservatives appear to have turned the tide long-dominated by progressive values. Corporations and governments are increasingly shedding departments and policies under the ideological umbrella of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. The two abbreviations have come to be associated with the encroachment of progressive politics into business and government.

“Many people thought it was impossible for me to stage such a historic political comeback. But as you see today, here I am,” Trump said. “The American people have spoken.”

In his address, Trump previewed some of the executive actions that he would roll out the same day.

Border policies topped the list, with the president announcing he’ll declare an emergency on the southern border, reinstate his remain-in-Mexico policy, end catch-and-release, deploy the military and National Guard to the border, designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations, and invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to remove cartel members from the United States. Incoming White House officials confirmed earlier in the day that Trump will be signing executive actions the same day to address each of the items.

The president also declared a national emergency on energy, describing it as a necessary countermeasure to what he called an intentional policy by the previous administration. The orders include a measure freeing up drilling in Alaska, ending the Biden administration’s so-called electric vehicle mandate, and filling up the strategic oil reserve. The president will end federal leasing to wind farms, withdraw again from the Paris Agreement on climate change, and end some of the Biden-era regulations on washing machines, lightbulbs, and dishwashers.

President Donald Trump delivers his inaugural address after being sworn in as the 47th president of the United States inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. SHAWN THEW/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Trump signed the first nine executive actions immediately after delivering a speech at the Capital One Arena on the night of the inauguration. The orders included the rescission of 78 Biden-administration executive actions, requiring federal employees to show up to work in person, a freeze on hiring and regulations, and the withdrawal from the Paris climate accord. Trump also signed all-of-government directives to address inflation, prohibiting government from restricting speech, and prohibiting the weaponization of federal agencies against political opponents.

The president said he would act on some foreign policy positions that he unveiled during the transition period, including his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal, rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, and establish the External Revenue Service to oversee the collection of tariffs from other nations.

Although Trump threatened to levy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, those actions will come after the first day. Instead, he will sign a memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by foreign countries and recommend associated trade policies.

Speaker Mike Johnson listens as President-elect Donald J. Trump speaks after being sworn in during the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States takes place inside the Capitol Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 20, 2025. Kenny Holston / AFP

Describing the state of the nation in broader strokes, Trump returned to themes from the campaign trail, saying that the United States was in decline due to the policies of the preceding administration. The president positioned his speech as a turning point, opening and closing the address by saying that the “golden age” of America has begun.

“From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer,” Trump said. “During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first.”

One of Trump’s signature plans was challenged not long after he took the oath of office. Four groups filed lawsuits on Jan. 20 against the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk. Earlier in the day, an administration official confirmed that Vivek Ramaswamy, who co-headed the DOGE effort, has resigned from that role.

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump embrace after he was sworn in inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. KEVIN LAMARQUE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Some of the president’s directives were put into action even as he attended the ceremonies. U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the termination of the CBP One app, which the Biden administration used to help 1,450 immigrants per day enter the country under humanitarian parole. At the Department of Defense, the portrait of former U.S. Army General and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley was removed from view.

Milley was among several people who received preemptive pardons from President Joe Biden in the final hours of his term. Biden also preemptively pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the members and witnesses of the Jan. 6 committee, and several members of the Biden family.

After the ceremonies at the Capitol, Trump and First Lady Melania Trump bid farewell to Biden and former First Lady Jill Biden. In his 2021 inaugural address, Biden set a course to root out the cultural and political forces championed by Trump. Four years later, Biden boarded a helicopter to depart the capital, with Trump’s approval ratings higher than when he left office on Jan. 20, 2021.

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

In a second speech, which did not appear on some of the inaugural schedules distributed to the press, Trump spoke to a different group of supporters who had watched the formal address on a screen at the Capitol. The president broached some of the more controversial topics he did not bring up in the formal address. The speech, which ran for some time, took place at the same time as Biden’s farewell address. As a result, the major TV networks didn’t air Biden’s final remarks.

The former president, speaking before an audience gathered at Joint Base Andrews, thanked his Cabinet and staff, calling them “the best damn team ever.”

“If you heard from the inaugural address today, we got more to do,” Biden said, crossing himself to laughter from the audience. “I know from many years of experience, there are ups and downs, but we have to stay with it.”

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris listen during the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States takes place inside the Capitol Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2025. Kenny Holston / AFP

Trump’s second speech appeared to be impromptu, sprinkled with jokes, and more akin to the speeches at his campaign rallies. The president said the first lady persuaded him not to mention the pardoning of Jan. 6 prisoners during the inaugural address but added that an order on the matter is forthcoming and that people would be happy about it.

At a signing ceremony at the White House on Monday night, Trump granted full and unconditional pardons to all Jan. 6 prisoners with the exception of 14 people, who received commutations.

The inauguration ceremony was moved indoors days before the event because of the bitter cold, with Trump delivering his speech inside the Capitol and the inaugural parade moving to the Capital One Arena. Several speakers—including Musk, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and FBI Director nominee Kash Patel—addressed the crowd at the arena before Trump arrived.

(L-R) CEO of Meta Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, US businessman Jeff Bezos, CEO of Alphabet Inc and Google Sundar Pichai and Teska and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony where Donald Trump will sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. Julia Demaree Nikhinson / POOL / AFP

In his speech, Patel said the number of murders, rapes, and drug overdoses was unacceptable. Patel referred to fentanyl—the synthetic opioid responsible for the biggest portion of drug overdose deaths—as “CCP fentanyl,” using the acronym for the Chinese Communist Party. The bulk of the chemical precursors for fentanyl manufacturing originate in China.

“We are not prioritized to go after the threats that face this country and most of all that face our future generations,” Patel said. “But, thank God, we will be, starting right now.”

Musk spoke briefly about his excitement for what’s to come.

“This was no ordinary victory,” Musk said. “This was a fork in the road of human civilization.”

Congratulations poured in from world leaders, including those of Russia, Ukraine, Canada, the UK, and the European Union. Chinese communist regime leader Xi Jinping—who was invited to the inauguration but sent an envoy in his place—did not send a greeting.

Europe’s wind energy and renewable companies were pressured after President Trump signed an executive order on Monday to halt US offshore wind lease sales in federal waters temporarily. Adding to the industry-wide gloom, Danish offshore wind developer Orsted revealed impairment charges that exceeded Wall Street analyst expectations. 

Shares of Orsted plunged as much as 18% in Copenhagen – the most since November 2023 – after the company revealed an impairment charge worth 12.1 billion Danish kroner ($1.68 billion) at its troubled US unit. 

“The impairments announced today, and especially the continued construction challenges, are very disappointing,” CEO Mads Nipper wrote in a statement. 

Nipper continued, “We remain committed to the US market in the long term with its potential for renewables to meet the growing electricity demand and create thousands of industrial jobs across the US. We continue to navigate the complexities and uncertainties we face in a nascent offshore industry in the new US market.” 

Orsted pointed to the “interest rate increase, seabed leases, and the execution of Sunrise Wind” project, which will, in aggregate, result in the $1.68 billion impairment charge in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Sunrise Wind project is located off the coast of Montauk, New York. 

Goldman’s Alberto Gandolfi, Mafalda Pombeiro, and Dhwani Khenwar called Orsted’s announcement a “surprise” and warned “potentially more to come”:

In a surprise announcement, Orsted has pre-announced 2024 results; crucially, the company has disclosed impairments for DKK 12 bn (DKK 29/share), related to: (i) higher interest rates in the US (DKK 4.3 bn), (ii) US seabeds (DKK 3.5 bn), and (iii) further delays in the construction of Sunrise, now expected in the second half of 2027 (DKK 4.3 bn). Despite “in line” 2024 EBITDA (DKK 24.8 bn ex gains), we believe these impairments are a negative for the share price. From here, we also flag that the risk of not receiving any ITC bonus, coupled with potential introduction of import-tariffs on offshore activities, could lead to incremental impairments.

The analysts maintained a “Neutral” rating on Orsted with a 12-month price target of 445 Danish kroner.

Storm clouds continued to gather for the Danish company after Trump’s executive order on Monday, which suspended new offshore wind lease sales in federal waters and halted the issuance of approvals, permits, and loans for both onshore and offshore wind projects.

Trump’s announcement weighed on renewable shares, sending iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) slightly lower in premarket trading. ICLN shares have slid for 3.5 months on the anticipation that Trump will dial back green energy spending. Shares are now trading near 2020 lows.  

Across Wall Street, analysts expressed grave concern following Orsted’s impairment announcement, compounded by Trump’s executive order, which signals elevated risks across the US offshore wind and renewable energy industries (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Citi (neutral)

• Jenny Ping says pre-released impairment numbers were larger than previously indicated
• Expects Sunrise Wind delays/cost escalation impairment of DKK4.3b to particularly negatively impact shares
• Orsted’s further impairments come at a time when the sector is facing political risk, and are unlikely to bolster confidence

RBC (sector perform)

• Management’s assertion that it remains committed to the US and continues to see value in US projects is unlikely to reassure the market, writes analyst Alexander Wheeler
• Co. continues to experience significant challenges in its US business and the execution of US projects

Jefferies (hold)

• Ahmed Farman notes impairment of DKK12.1b is 9% of Orsted’s market capitalization at last close, though some of this is already partly priced in, especially on the interest-rate impairment
• Sunrise Wind impairment is particularly disappointing as it further exemplifies the execution risks within US offshore wind

Barclays (equal weight)

• The scale and nature of the remaining impairments is larger than expected, analyst Dominic Nash writes in a note
• Says this is at least Orsted’s third major profit warning/impairment update since January 2023
• Sees higher risks for US offshore wind given Trump’s policies against the industry, including the risk of no further US offshore wind development over the medium term and the values of seabed leases potentially going to zero

Trump on Monday: “We’re not going to do the wind thing.” 

WATCH: President Trump calls out the destructive and costly over-reliance on wind energy:

“We’re gonna use it. We’re not going to do the wind thing.”

“If you’re into whales, you don’t want windmills either.” pic.twitter.com/B44hogygiv

— Conservative War Machine (@WarMachineRR) January 20, 2025

A lot of bad news for the green energy bubble in the era of Trump 2.0. 

US equity futures are higher even as president Trump pledged to impose tariffs up to 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as Feb. 1, but held off imposing an immediate China tariff, which according to JPMorgan points “to a more cautious view from Trump on tariff implementation”, helping push the USD/CNY lower by -0.7%. The possibility of tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 weighed on futures yesterday evening, if not so much Tuesday morning when S&P futures are near session highs, up 0.4% to 6,060 with Nasdaq futures rising by a similar amount as a more serene mood settled over markets after a rollercoaster session on Donald Trump’s first day in office, with investors looking past the threat of tariffs to the potential boost from fiscal stimulus and tax cuts. Trump also threatened Europe with tariffs unless it buys more American oil, and gave TikTok a 75 day reprieve to sell itself. Other moves included declaring national emergencies on migration and energy, withdrawing from the Paris agreement and WHO, rolling back EV policies, and boosting oil and gas drilling. Elsewhere in markets, the is FTSE flat/DAX -10bps/CAC +5bps/Shanghai -5bps/Hang Seng +91bps/Nikkei +32bps. 10Y yields dropped from their Friday close to trade at 4.58%, down 4bps, as the dollar gained. This week, key macro focus will be Q4 earnings (9% of SPX mkt cap reports) and headlines from Washington. Crude oil dropped after Houthi rebels said they would no longer target tankers transiting the Red Sea. Bitcoin slumped on Monday after Trump failed to mention it even once in his various speeches and addresses. Today, we will hear from KEY, DHI, PLD, SCHW, MMM, FITB pre-open while NFLX, STX, UAL, COF, IBKR, HWC report after the bell. 

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks rise, following gains in Hong Kong peers, as President Donald Trump refrained from announcing any tariffs on Chinese goods on his first day in office. 3M rose 4% as management expects profit to grow this year. Apple falls 2% as sales of iPhones dived 18.2% in China during the December quarter, according to independent research; Jefferies, Loop downgrade on Weak iPhone Demand. D.R. Horton gained 3% after affirming its forecasts for full-year revenue and deliveries. General Motors rose 1% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the automaker to buy on expectations that the automaker will report to the high-end of its guidance range in the fourth quarter.

US stock futures, Treasuries and the dollar all gained as traders chose to focus on the prospects for economic growth and corporate profits under Trump’s second four-year term. Still, the lack of an overall narrative on trade restrictions so far underscores the risk of higher volatility across financial markets.

Trump threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as Feb. 1, triggering sharp declines in the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. The currencies were among the worst-performing of 30 major currencies on Tuesday, with the peso trading 1.2% lower and the loonie down 0.9%. Their declines stood out as the worst market fallout from a raft of executive orders signed by Trump, including one that declares a national emergency at the US-Mexico border. However, the yuan jumped almost 1% after Trump refrained from announcing immediate tariffs against China.

Investors had been on edge over the first executive orders to be announced by the White House after Trump vowed to quickly implement his “America First” agenda. In the runup to inauguration day, traders had driven up yields and stoked the dollar to a 13-month high, expecting that sweeping trade tariffs will crimp global growth, lift US inflation and potentially cause the Federal Reserve to refrain from interest-rate cuts this year.

“The fears are sometimes greater than reality,” said Robert Dishner, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. “The market is going to settle to a cadence of the domestic agenda. For now there is an evaluation.”

Here is a recap of all the main events on Monday:

• Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th US President, while President Trump said in the Inaugural Address that the golden age of America begins now and he will sign a series of executive orders as widely expected. Trump said he will direct his Cabinet to defeat record inflation and will launch astronauts to Mars, while he added that all illegal entry will be halted and he will reinstate ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy, as well as send troops to the southern border. Furthermore, Trump said he will declare a national energy emergency and reiterated his ‘drill baby, drill’ catchphrase, while he will begin an overhaul of the trade system, will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich US citizens, as well as establish an ‘External Revenue Service’.
• US President Trump signed rescissions of 78 Biden-era actions orders and memoranda, while he also signed documents on a federal hiring freeze, mandating workers to return to in-person full-time immediately and the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Treaty. Trump also revoked Biden’s 2023 Executive Order on AI policy and Biden’s Executive Order that set a target of 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 as EVs.
• Trump said they will straighten out the deficit with the EU through tariffs or by them buying US oil and gas.
• Thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and thinks that they will do it on February 1st.
• Trump signed the order related to delaying the TikTok ban and said he may do a TikTok deal or may not, but if he does a TikTok deal, the US should be entitled to half of TikTok and if he doesn’t sign, then TikTok is worthless. Furthermore, Trump said they could put tariffs on China if they make a TikTok deal and China doesn’t approve it, while he floated the idea of universal tariffs on anyone doing business with the US but said they are not there yet.
• A draft Trump trade memo directed federal agencies to investigate and remedy persistent US trade deficits that harm the US economy and seeks to address unfair trade practices and currency manipulation by foreign countries. The trade memo also seeks to ensure trade deals including USMCA prioritise American workers, farmers and businesses, while it seeks to combat the import of counterfeit products and contraband that threaten public health and erode tariff revenues. President Trump is to assess China’s adherence to the US-China trade agreement to determine if enforcement or changes are required.
• Trump’s administration sent a new document to Republican lawmakers detailing immediate priorities and it was stated that Trump will announce the America First Trade Policy. It was also announced that Trump will take bold action to secure the border and protect American communities, while he will unleash American energy by ending Biden’s policies of “extremism” and all agencies will take emergency measures to reduce the cost of living.

Meanwhile, fourth-quarter earnings season resumes, with 3M Co., Netflix Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. among US companies set to report on Tuesday. Traders will also also keep an eye on comments from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 shook off early weakness to rise 0.2% as Trump repeated his call on the European Union to buy more American oil and gas if the bloc wants to avoid tariffs. Tariff and policy concerns still weighed on the region’s mining, automotive and renewable stocks. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Avanza shares rise as much as 11%, hitting a three-year high, after full-year results topped expectations at the Swedish retail-trading platform. The report should help drive upgrades, Citi says
• Abrdn shares rise as much as 9.6%, the most since April 2020, after the investment company posted assets under management and net inflows ahead of expectations
• Truecaller gains as much as 12% to trade at the highest since Sept. 2022, after Carnegie raised its price target on the Swedish caller ID platform by a fifth, highlighting several major catalysts ahead
• Komax shares soar as much as 12%, the most in almost three years, after the Swiss machinery manufacturer posted better-than-expected order intake and sales figures
• Alphawave IP shares soar as much as 16% after the semiconductor firm reported a surge in orders in the final quarter of 2024, while raising expectations for FY adj. Ebitda
• Shares in lenders with UK motor finance exposure jump following a report that Chancellor Rachel Reeves could intervene in a car finance mis-selling case in order to protect car loan providers
• Orsted shares fall as much as 18%, hitting their lowest in more than a year, after the Danish offshore wind developer pre-released impairments that were greater than analysts estimated
• Schott Pharma falls as much as 8.8%, the most since December, after Bank of America downgrades the German drug delivery systems manufacturer to underperform from buy
• The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is among Tuesday’s biggest decliners as base metals fell after US President Donald Trump said he would likely enact tariffs on Mexico and Canada by Feb. 1
• European automakers decline on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump ended his first day in office saying he would put 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada by the beginning of next month
• Greggs shares drop as much as 4.2% after Panmure Liberum downgraded the UK baker and slashed its price target to a new Street-low. Analysts trimmed their profit estimates after becoming more cautious
• DocMorris shares drop as much as 6.9%, reversing an earlier gain of 3.2%, after analysts highlighted the Swiss pharmaceutical products retailer’s lower-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks whipsawed early on Tuesday as traders parsed comments from newly sworn-in US President Donald Trump to gauge impact on markets in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% after swinging between gains and losses earlier. While Trump said he planned to enact previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb. 1, he avoided committing to a plan for additional levies on China and said he would be having “meetings and calls” with President Xi Jinping. Chinese stocks rose more than 1% in Hong Kong as Trump avoided committing to a plan for tariffs on goods from China. But Trump also indicated that he could impose taxes on Chinese goods if Beijing blocked the sale of the social media app TikTok to a US entity.

“There is a lot to digest. But one thing to flag here is that I think at the moment, the equity market is not too concerned about US-China tensions,” Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategists at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. China should be able to digest 20% tariffs, “so from markets standpoint we are still forecasting 20% rise in Chinese equities over next 12 months.”

Elsewhere, Indian stocks dropped amid slowing corporte earnings. The stock market correction may have room to run as weak earnings and high valuations will likely weigh on sentiment in the near-term.

In fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbs 0.6% while the Mexican peso fell and along with the Canadian dollar, was among the worst-performing major currencies after US President Trump threatened both countries with tariffs on his first day in office. US 10-year yields fall 6 bps to 4.57%. Cable is down 0.6% against the greenback following weak job numbers, matching a fall in the euro.

In rates, treasuries rally as fears that Trump’s policies will fuel inflation eased. The 10-year TSY around 4.58% is more than 4bp richer on the day after falling to 4.528% during Asia session; long-end-led gains flatten 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2.5bp and 1bp vs Friday’s close. Gilts are steady after mixed UK jobs data did little to shift bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. Bunds outperform Gilts with German 10-year yields falling 1 bps.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling more than 2% to $76.40. Spot gold climbs $14 to $2,722/oz. Bitcoin trades near $103,000.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes January Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am). Fed officials are in communications blackout ahead of Jan. 29 policy announcement; swaps market prices in around 6bp of combined easing over the January and March meetings and 37bp over the course of this year.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 6,055.25
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 524.20
• MXAP little changed at 181.03
• MXAPJ little changed at 571.20
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 39,027.98
• Topix little changed at 2,713.50
• Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 20,106.55
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,242.62
• Sensex down 1.6% to 75,823.52
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 8,402.39
• Kospi little changed at 2,518.03
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
• Euro down 0.6% to $1.0355
• Brent Futures down 0.9% to $79.41/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,722.98
• US Dollar Index down 0.62% to 108.67

Top Overnight News

• The dollar rebounded after President Trump touted plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1, while the Hang Seng rallied as he delayed a reckoning with China. The loonie and peso slumped, and some hedge funds re-entered bullish dollar option trades. BBG
• President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday as previously promised but said he was thinking about imposing 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico as soon as Feb 1. He directed federal agencies to investigate persistent U.S. trade deficits and unfair trade practices and alleged currency manipulation by other countries. RTRS
• US President Trump said they will straighten out the deficit with the EU through tariffs or by them buying US oil and gas: AP
• Trump revoked offshore oil and gas leasing bans that had effectively blocked drilling in most US coastal waters. He expects the US to stop buying oil from Venezuela, and reiterated a call for the EU to buy more American oil and gas to avoid tariffs. BBG
• US Speaker Mike Johnson’s tax adviser Derek Theurer is expected to take a job in the Treasury Department – he would play a “key role” in shaping Republican tax plans: Punchbowl.
• China indicated that sanctions on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wouldn’t impact official exchanges, a sign that Beijing seeks to negotiate with the Trump administration. BBG
• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol denied wrongdoing as he branded himself as a firm believer in democracy in his first appearance at an impeachment trial. BBG
• UK wage growth beat in the three months through November from a year earlier. December employment fell more than expected, reinforcing the case for more BOE rate cuts. BBG
• The ECB will probably cut rates 3-4 times in a row, with the first reduction all but certain next week, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. Francois Villeroy said it’s plausible the central bank will act at each meeting, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% by summer. BBG
• In Germany the expectations component of the ZEW survey slumped to 10.3 in Jan, down from 15.7 in Dec and below the Street consensus of 15.1. BBG
• BofA January Global Fund Manager Survey states investors are bullish on the USD and equities, bearish everything else (most underweight bonds since October 2022).
• JPMorgan executive Erdoes says US banks under President Trump are “in the beginning of go-mode” and “animal spirits are alive”, via FT citing Davos remarks; adding, it is “hopeful” that his regulatory approach would boost the US economy.
• Tariffs: Goldman is lowering its odds of a universal tariff this year to 25%. If President Trump ultimately implements a tariff affecting all countries, the bank believes it is more likely to be targeted at “critical imports” (between 10-20% of total US imports) or otherwise narrower than the “universal” tariff Trump proposed during the campaign. However, while this as a risk, for now Goldman does not include it in its base case.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the initial broad-based risk-on sentiment after US President Trump refrained from imposing tariffs on the first day of his return to the White House, was ultimately soured after he later flagged potential 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico which could be imposed from the start of February. ASX 200 was led higher as outperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and gold miners helped pick up the slack from the weakness in energy and defensive stocks. Nikkei 225 briefly wiped out its opening gains with price action largely influenced by tariff rhetoric and a firmer currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed after the recent tariff-related fluctuations in asset classes, while President Trump also floated the idea of universal tariffs on anyone doing business with the US but added that they are not there yet.

Top Asian News

• China’s Vice Premier says China’s stable economic growth will provide strong impetus for global economic development. “China does not pursue a trade surplus”. “China’s door of opening up will not close”. “Sincerely welcome more foreign companies to invest into China”

European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) opened with a strong negative bias, with only a couple of indices remaining afloat. As the morning progressed, sentiment in the complex gradually improved, to currently display a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed vs initially opening mostly in the red. Trump’s inauguration has sparked some considerable  moves across sectors in Europe; Autos, Basic Resources and Utilities have all been hampered thus far. The latter is in focus after Trump said he will end leasing to some wind farms.

Top European News

• EU is to reportedly raise concerns with the US over its decision to restrict exports of AI chips from the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA) to some member states, according to Bloomberg sources.
• ECB’s Villeroy says “if the pace of rate cuts is steady, there is no need to make them bigger”, via Bloomberg TV; in terms of easing, it will be entirely data dependent. No question on the neutral rate; if ECB carries on, can be at 2% neutral rate by summer. Perspective of inflation is quite assured. On growth, is slightly positive thus far but not enough.
• UK Chancellor Reeves backs plans for looser limits on mortgage lending and favours proposals by the financial regulator for banks to take more risks to boost home ownership, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves reportedly intervenes in a car finance mis-selling case to protect lenders in which she launched an effort to shield car loan providers from multibillion-pound payouts, according to FT.
• ECB’s Kazimir said a rate cut next week is all but certain and two to three more will probably follow, while he added that recent data suggest 25bps back-to-back rate cuts should continue although heightened uncertainty means the ECB must remain nimble in case things change, according to Bloomberg.
• EU’s Commissioner Dombrovskis said the EU and US are strategic allies, while he added they need to preserve the EU-US trade relationship and they are ready to defend the EU’s economic interests.
• EU finance ministers agreed to stay united in the approach to the new US administration and stated that a more competitive EU economy is the best answer to potential economic challenges from the US, while they also agreed it is in the EU and US interests to develop a strong economic relationship.
• German Car Association VDA says in discussion with the new US President, it is clear that showing economic strength is the best answer

FX

• The dollar is showing a resurgence after yesterday’s heavy selling pressure which was triggered by news that President Trump refrained from imposing tariffs on day one of his Presidency. That being said, optimism on the trade front was dashed overnight after Trump remarked that he is thinking of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and thinks that they will do it on February 1st. DXY made an incremental new low overnight at 107.86 before returning to a 108 handle and rising as high as 108.79.
• EUR is notably weaker vs. the USD following a particularly strong showing yesterday amid relief that Trump refrained from enacting tariff action on day one of his Presidency. That optimism has faded somewhat following Trump’s threats on Canada and Mexico overnight as well as him stating that the US will straighten out the deficit with the EU through tariffs or by them buying US oil and gas.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers given that more cyclically exposed currencies were hit overnight following Trump’s tariff threat. USD/JPY delved as low as 154.79 overnight, finding support just above its 50DMA at 154.77.
• GBP is on the backfoot vs. the broadly firmer USD and marginally softer vs. the EUR. This morning’s UK jobs data saw the unemployment rate tick higher to 4.4% from 4.3% as expected (usual data caveats apply), whilst headline wage growth picked up to 5.6% from 5.2% as expected. Cable currently sits towards the middle of yesterday’s 1.2161-1.2345 range.
• Antipodeans are both on the backfoot as some of yesterday’s trade optimism faded overnight following the aforementioned report of Trump considering tariffs on Mexico and Canada. AUD/USD yesterday was able to propel itself from a 0.6189 base to a 0.6286 peak (highest since 7th Jan). However, a bulk of this move was pared during the APAC session with the pair delving as low as 0.6209.
• After some reprieve yesterday, both the Loonie and Mexican Peso are notably lower vs. the USD following comments from US President Trump that he is thinking of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and thinks that they will do it on February 1st. ING notes that “at this point, there is more downside room for CAD and MXN to fall should Trump follow through with the tariff threat”.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1703 vs exp. 7.2888 (prev. 7.1886).

Fixed Income

• USTs have been gradually fading from best throughout the morning as we prepare for Trump’s first full day back in office. As it stands, USTs are holding around Monday’s 108-24+ best. Monday price action was fairly contained up until the WSJ piece (re. tariffs) drove USTs to a 108-24+ peak.
• Gilts are trading in-line with European peers, specifics for the Gilt market focused on the UK labour report which saw the wage metrics increase but largely as expected while the unemployment and payroll measures both point to the market loosening. Metrics which helped Gilts gap higher by 21 ticks at the open, however the overnight rally in USTs was likely the main driver behind this with Gilts playing catch up this morning. Gilts currently in 91.51-79 parameters.
• Bunds began the morning modestly in the green with yields slightly softer by extension but largely contained with newsflow light so far. German ZEW came in mixed with a significant miss in the Economic Sentiment metric while Current Conditions eclipsed the forecast range, but remained at very low levels; accompanying commentary was, unsurprisingly, downbeat. Action which leaves Bunds towards the lower-end of 131.82 to 132.15 parameters.
• France saw over EUR 100bln of demand for its syndicated bond sale, via Reuters citing lead manager.
• Spain has mandated a 10yr benchmark bond, via Reuters citing lead manager.
• Germany sells EUR 0.945bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.10% 2029 and EUR 908mln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.30% 2033 Green Bund.
• UK gets record of GBP 119bln in orders for 2040 gilt syndication, via Bloomberg TV.

Commodities

• Softer trade across the crude complex this morning as markets digest Trump’s executive orders alongside implications of the new administration for the oil market over the next four years, with the Dollar also on a firmer footing following yesterday’s slide. On energy, Trump said he would declare a national energy emergency and reiterated his ‘drill baby, drill’ catchphrase. Furthermore, US President Trump signed an order on unleashing energy production and repealed Biden’s 2023 memo barring oil drilling in some 16mln acres in the Arctic, according to the White House. Brent trades in and at the bottom of a USD 78.90-80.46/bbl range.
• Mixed trade across precious metals amid the tentative mood around markets as Trump was sworn in as the 47th President yesterday. Spot gold steadily extended on yesterday’s gains and currently trades in a USD 2,702.81-2,733.06/oz range after topping the peak set last Thursday (USD 2,724.78/oz).
• Base metals lower across the board following Trump’s latest tariff-related rhetoric dampening demand in the base metal space.
• Saudi Aramco’s Chief says he still sees a healthy oil market, when asked about US President Trump’s energy comments, via Reuters. Will wait and see how sanctions on Russia translate into tightness in the market, still at an early stage. Expecting additional oil demand this year of around 1.3mln/bpd. On LNG, we are working with our partners and looking at expanding our position.
• Uniper (UN0 GY) CEO says it is positive if US President Trump sends more gas to Europe.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli Military says forces have begun an operation in the West Bank city of Jenin.
• Hamas said a second batch of hostages will be released on Saturday as planned.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

• Ukraine’s Military says it hit Russian oil depot in Voronezh region for the second time in a week
• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said US President Trump’s peace through strength policy is an opportunity to achieve just peace and he looks forward to active and mutually beneficial cooperation with Trump.
• Falling Ukrainian drone triggered a new fire at an oil storage depot in southern Russia’s Voronezh region, according to the regional governor.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russian President Putin tells Chinese President Xi that he “thinks last year was a very fruitful year for us”. Putin says China ties are “self sufficient”
• South Korea said the denuclearisation of North Korea must still be the goal for world peace, following a report US President Trump said that Pyongyang is a nuclear power.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -6.0, revised -3.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was Blue Monday here in the UK yesterday as it is deemed to be the most depressing day of the year (always third Monday in January). My kids have just been taught about it and were asked to add some colour to their school uniform for the day to battle the blues. One of my twins wore one of my red work ties and I now know exactly what he had for lunch as a result!
Meanwhile it was red Monday in Washington DC as Trump’s inauguration ceremony took place. The subsequent speech didn’t really contain any substantive surprises, and in fact was probably more traditional than many of his previous speeches. He did detail a list of executive orders and policy reversals that are imminent across immigration, ending green incentives, promoting the oil and gas sector and pushing back against the DEI movement. A lack of immediate moves on tariffs supported the market mood yesterday, but this has partially reversed overnight as late in the day Trump renewed an immediate threat of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could be announced as soon as February 1st.

In my chart of the day yesterday we pointed out how Trump signed Executive Orders at the fastest rate of any President since Jimmy Carter, who left office in 1981. But if we look further back in history, it’s still well below that seen in the first half of the 20th century, peaking under Franklin Roosevelt who had to deal with the Great Depression and WWII. Given Trump’s recent rhetoric we could go back to the first half of the twentieth century levels of executive orders in his second term.
US markets were closed for a public holiday yesterday as the inauguration took place, but the biggest moves of the day came after the WSJ reported that Trump wouldn’t impose new tariffs on his first day in office. The story said that Trump would issue a memorandum on trade, but not impose tariffs yet. So that raised hopes that Trump would initially try and reach a deal with US trade partners, with tariffs as a potential point of leverage, rather than something to be used immediately.

That report led to a clear rally for bond and equity futures, whilst the US dollar index weakened -1.16% on the day, marking its biggest move lower since the very bad jobs report in August. US Treasuries were closed yesterday for the holiday, but overnight the 10yr yield has come down -8.9bps.

However, the more positive take on trade risks has reversed overnight after Trump commented to reporters that he’s thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1st, again citing the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US. He also commented the he is considering a universal tariff but that he’s “not ready for that yet.” The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso slumped by as much as -1.5% following the comments before partially recovering, while the broad dollar has recovered around a third of yesterday’s losses. S&P 500 futures have also given up more than half of yesterday’s gains (+0.36% at Europe’s close yesterday). See our economists’ piece here from late November where they said a 25% increase in tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports would increase inflation by up to 1 percentage point in 2025. So although at this stage this was an off the cuff comment to reporters last night, markets should be pretty concerned about the headlines.

Before all this, in European trading markets had been earlier buoyed by the tariff news (or lack of), with a clear advance for those sectors most exposed to trade. As an example one of the biggest sectoral advances came for Automobiles & Parts (+1.08%). That helped the German DAX (+0.42%) to outperform and hit another all-time high, with BMW (+2.80%) as the top-performer in the index. And given the weakness in the US Dollar, that meant the Euro strengthened +1.39% on the day, marking its biggest daily advance since November 2023. This move will be under threat this morning with the Euro already giving up around a quarter of its gains in Asia from yesterday. Let’s see how European autos react.

The WSJ story also led to a clear rally for European sovereign bonds, with 10yr bund yields paring back their earlier increase to close -0.5bps lower. That pattern was echoed across the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) moving lower as well. There was a bit of hawkishness from the ECB’s Holzmann in a Politico interview, who said that a January rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion for me at all”, but Holzmann is one of the most hawkish members of the Governing Council, so investors remained confident that the ECB were still on course to cut rates next week.

Asian equity markets are volatile this morning albeit within a relatively small range as the tariff yo-yo story has impacted sentiment. The Hang Seng (+0.83%) remains higher but is off the highs while Chinese and Japanese equities have dipped lower as I type.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, and Canada’s CPI for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Centeno. Finally, earnings releases include Netflix.