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Zelensky Offers To Send 150 Ukrainian Firefighters To California After Stinging Rebuke From Trump Jr

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Zelensky Offers To Send 150 Ukrainian Firefighters To California After Stinging Rebuke From Trump Jr

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that his country is ready to assist those affected by the devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area, with 150 Ukrainian firefighters ready to go.

The offer, articulated Sunday, cited the “extremely difficult” situation in California and said that Ukrainians “can help Americans save lives”. It comes several days after Donald Trump Jr joined many others in criticizing the fact that a lot of LA firefighting equipment had previously been handed over to Ukraine. “Oh look of course the LA fire department donated a bunch of their supplies to Ukraine,” Trump Jr said on X last Wednesday.

Zelensky stated, “Today, I instructed Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs and our diplomats to prepare for the possible participation of our rescuers in combating the wildfires in California. The situation there is extremely difficult, and Ukrainians can help Americans save lives.”

“This is currently being coordinated, and we have offered our assistance to the American side through the relevant channels. 150 of our firefighters are already prepared,” he continued.

It remains unclear whether the Ukrainian firefighters are actually en route to the US or not. Canada and Mexico are key countries which have already sent firefighters to help. The Palisades fire and the Eaton fire have yet to be contained, having ravaged the area for over a week straight, amid high California winds.

The several fires have resulted in at least 24 dead and over 150,000 people forcibly evacuated from their homes. Billions of dollars in damage has been documented.

Critics of Biden’s essentially ‘blank check’ approach to Ukraine have pointed out that American taxpayers have been forced to foot the bill for a foreign country and a disastrous overseas proxy war, instead of investing in infrastructure and keeping people safe at home. This was a similar criticism in September and October when the Carolinas witnessed severe and deadly flooding by Hurricane Helene, and whole towns were stranded without resources, with US citizens having received minimal emergency funds. 

Zelensky’s new offer to help California, despite the reality being that he’s in desperate need of more manpower in his own war-ravaged country, indicates he’s more and more worried on a PR level over the potential that Trump could drastically cut defense and economic aid to Kiev.

A March 2022 story out of California stated that “Los Angeles County fire crews are sending some of their extra equipment to firefighters in Ukraine.” It had detailed, “The plane carrying that much-needed surplus equipment, such as hoses, nozzles, turnouts, helmets, body armor and other personal protective gear, is expected to take off Friday.” Extra?… Putting America “Ukraine first” is the Biden bad foreign policy idea that keeps on giving… and taking away from American citizens caught in the throes of emergency and disaster.

Meanwhile, one Ukrainian media outlet is asking the following question pertaining to the offer—Zelensky will send Ukrainian firefighters to California: Will they want to return home?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 18:00

India Expects No Disruption To Russian Oil Supply Until March

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India Expects No Disruption To Russian Oil Supply Until March

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • India will allow Russian oil cargoes booked before US sanctions to be discharged until March.

  • This move aims to mitigate the immediate impact of sanctions on India, the world’s third-largest oil importer.

  • India faces potential disruption to its oil supply after March if alternative sources are not secured.

Following Friday’s U.S. sanctions against tankers shipping Russian oil, India expects its flows of crude from Russia not to be disrupted until March as the sanctioned tankers will be allowed to discharge until then, a senior Indian government official told Reuters on Monday.

India will allow cargoes carrying Russian oil booked before January 10 to discharge at ports when they arrive at Indian coasts, according to the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The outgoing U.S. Administration on Friday imposed the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.

A large part of the newly sanctioned tankers by the U.S. have carried Russian crude mostly to China and India over the past year, according to analysts and ship-tracking data.

The latest U.S. sanctions have already started moving oil markets and the oil-purchasing strategies in Russia’s top crude oil customers, China and India.

Oil prices jumped on Friday as the U.S. sanctions were announced, and Brent Crude broke above $80 per barrel to hit the highest level in three months.

The rally continued on Monday, with Brent jumping to a four-month high of over $81 per barrel.

Prices will eventually fall back below $80 per barrel because there is no shortage of supply on the global oil market, the anonymous Indian government official told Reuters.

“The market is waiting for Russia to respond on sanctions,” the official told the newswire, adding that “Russia will find ways to reach us.”

India is bracing for a major disruption to Russian oil supply, which is currently the single largest source of crude for the world’s third-largest oil importer.

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 17:40

House Republicans Weigh Sweeping $5.7 Trillion In Spending Cuts To Fund Trump’s Domestic Agenda

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House Republicans Weigh Sweeping $5.7 Trillion In Spending Cuts To Fund Trump’s Domestic Agenda

In a bold and controversial fiscal gamble, House Republicans are circulating a “menu” of proposed spending cuts totaling almost $6 trillion over the next decade. The plan, designed to bankroll President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious priorities – including tax cuts and increased border security – details reductions to major federal programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Biden-era climate initiatives.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington is circulating the $5.7 trillion list of potential cuts.

The early list, obtained by POLITICO, reflects the GOP’s long-standing goal of reducing government spending, though the magnitude of the suggested cuts underscores the high-stakes nature of the effort. The menu includes slashing welfare programs, revising Affordable Care Act subsidies, and rolling back green energy tax credits. While the list serves as a set of options rather than a formal proposal, it has already sparked intense internal debate among Republicans.

The people, granted anonymity to discuss closed-door negotiations, said that the list originated from the House Budget Committee, chaired by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). Republicans involved in the reconciliation plans have been generally targeting the listed programs for several months, but internal GOP fights over trillions of dollars in potential cuts are just beginning.

The overall savings add up to as much as $5.7 trillion over 10 years, though the list is highly ambitious and unlikely to all become law given narrow margins for Republicans in the House and Senate. -Politico

The “document is not intended to serve as a proposal, but instead as a menu of potential spending reductions for members to consider,” one GOP source told the outlet.

Yet even within the Republican caucus, there is skepticism about the feasibility of achieving such drastic savings. “They all feel pretty controversial,” one senior GOP lawmaker conceded when asked if there were any particularly controversial spending offsets dividing Republicans.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is reportedly working to balance the demands of Trump’s domestic policy agenda, estimated to cost $10 trillion, with the fiscal constraints imposed by his own pledge to slash $2.5 trillion in government spending through the budget reconciliation process as part of last year’s govt. funding negotiations.

Medicaid And ACA In The Crosshairs

One of the most contentious components of the plan targets Medicaid, with proposed caps on federal spending tied to state population levels instead of maintaining the program as an open-ended entitlement. Additionally, the list suggests imposing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and aligning payments for able-bodied adults with those for low-income children and individuals with disabilities – a move projected to save $690 billion.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is another significant target. Republicans are eyeing $46 billion in savings by letting key ACA insurance subsidies expire and limiting eligibility based on citizenship status. These cuts, if pursued, would reignite the political firestorm that has surrounded the ACA since its inception, potentially destabilizing coverage for millions of Americans.

Cuts to Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act and the country’s largest anti-hunger program would spark massive opposition from Democrats and would also face some GOP resistance. House Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford any Republican defections if he wants to pass a package on party lines. -Politico

Medicare is also under scrutiny, with proposed “site-neutral” payments that would equalize costs across outpatient settings – a policy that has garnered bipartisan attention but could face resistance due to concerns over its impact on providers. The list also includes repealing Biden administration health care regulations, such as minimum staffing requirements at nursing homes, which proponents argue drive up costs.

Climate Programs On The Chopping Block

Perhaps the most politically delicate area involves green energy and climate initiatives. The proposal identifies up to $468 billion in savings by repealing provisions from Biden’s climate policies, including electric vehicle incentives and elements of the bipartisan infrastructure law.

Yet, not all Republicans are aligned on this front. Eighteen House Republicans, many representing districts benefiting from clean energy projects, have warned Speaker Johnson against prematurely dismantling green energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture—viewed favorably by some GOP lawmakers—are among the measures that could be impacted.

Even proposed cuts to green energy tax credits, worth as much as $500 billion, could be tricky — as the document notes, they depend “on political viability.” Already 18 House Republicans — 14 of whom won reelection in November — warned Johnson against prematurely repealing some of the IRA’s energy tax credits, which are funding multiple manufacturing projects in GOP districts. -Politico

The challenge for Johnson and his leadership team will be corralling enough Republican votes in the House, where the GOP holds a narrow majority, while navigating the Senate’s more moderate composition. The specter of Republican defections looms large, particularly among lawmakers who represent districts reliant on federal spending for infrastructure and health care programs.

President-elect Trump’s policy blueprint has added another layer of complexity. Trump’s focus on aggressive border security measures and significant tax reductions—signature issues of his campaign—comes with a hefty price tag. His allies in Congress are preparing to meet with him in Florida this weekend to discuss next steps. The proposed cuts to Medicaid, the ACA, and climate programs signal a sharp pivot away from Biden-era policies, but they also risk political fallout that could jeopardize fragile Republican majorities.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 17:20

Woke DEI + Green Nihilism = Dresden In California

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Woke DEI + Green Nihilism = Dresden In California

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Firebombing on the Pacific

Over 25,000 acres are ablaze in Los Angeles in the Pacific Palisades fire, a veritable living hell.

Some 12,000-plus structures were incinerated. More than 250,000 souls have been evacuated and are in need of shelter.

No one has really taken charge yet. And now even the woke culprits for the catastrophe are blame-gaming each other to determine who was the more incompetent, which in this case translates to the most woke.

No one knows how many have died; all know the number will escalate in the next few days.

The eventual price tag of the ruin will exceed $200-300 billion and outstrip the billions of dollars given to Ukraine.

And there are still some fires that are completely uncontained.

The Los Angeles apocalypse was a multisystem, green-woke collapse—and a disastrous reminder that when Soviet-style, anti-meritocratic ideology permeates all aspects of modern life in California, disaster is inevitable.

First, note that the culprit of the catastrophe is not climate change; it is not Donald Trump. Those are excuses for arrogant incompetency and disdain for the public. And it is not racism or homophobia to fault those who paraded and virtue signaled their tribal identities so extraneous to their actual responsibilities for public safety.

Note that all California statewide officeholders are left-wing. The California left holds supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. Only 17 percent of California’s huge congressional delegation of 52 seats is Republican. California’s judiciary is the most left-wing in the country. There is not a single Republican on the 15-member Los Angeles City Council.

Add it all up, and the woke socialist state has been eagerly deindustrializing, decivilizing, and retribalizing its way into what is now a veritable peacetime Dresden on the Pacific.

Again, there is no one else to blame, because California is one of those rare states in which Republicans have de facto zero political power. All the state media, the legacy newspapers, the Silicon Valley daily online news sites, the Bay Area-based Apple, Google, and Facebook monopolies, and the local news outlets are parrots of the woke-green mindset.

To the degree that anything still works in California, it predates 2000. The core of the ossified Central Valley Water Project and the California Water Project remain—though they are in need of massive maintenance, like almost all the infrastructure the current generation of politicians inherited and largely ignored.

Now crowded and obsolete highways that were once the nation’s best still function—but barely. And there are a few remnants of sanity in what is left of the pre-woke and once-great universities of Berkeley, Caltech, Stanford, UCLA, and USC, founded by a now despised but far wiser and more competent long-dead generation of visionaries.

The Real ‘Basket of Deplorables’

Los Angeles brags about its new $50 billion budget and trumpets how it expanded “Care First” programs. Indeed, the mayor’s budget claims it created a new “451 positions”—highlighting its investments in “growing the department of youth development.”

It boasts it is adding positions to the “Justice, Care, and Opportunities Department,” “reducing our jail population,” and expanding “voting solutions for all people.” There is not much about fire, policing, or water—apparently now the low priorities that prior sexist, racist, and homophobic generations once worried about.

The role of DEI? Mayor Karen Bass was warned of the current danger of dry hillsides of chaparral buffeted by record-high, 100-mph Santa Ana winds. Her response?

She went junketing a continent away to the inauguration festivities of the president of Ghana—a strange way to prepare for a possible inferno to come. Does Ghana have firefighting expertise to share with Bass? In damage-control mode, Bass flew back only to be confronted at the airport by a now rare honest—and thus foreign—reporter.

He asked her why she cut over $17.6 million from the LA fire service budget—itself just 65% of the city’s homelessness expenditures. (She had planned to cut millions of dollars more). And why, he asked, was she in Africa at all in her city’s hour of need?

Bass stood mute—shamed into silence.

I think Los Angelenos needed no answer since it was obvious to them: she went to Ghana because she could and wanted to—since identity chauvinism is what ensured she was elected, reelected, and immune from criticism. Look at her appointments and budget, and it is clear public safety, fires, and water are most certainly not her priorities.

Bass was confident that if LA went up in smoke as she pursued her African agendas, the woke megaphones would silence critics as “racist” or “homophobic” or “sexist” in the way Soviet commissars used to send to Siberia any “ideological enemies of the state” who complained that the farms, industries, and trains of Russia no longer worked. And on spec, we now hear it is now racist to criticize a black woman incompetent mayor.

How about the Bass-appointed DEI “deputy mayor for safety,” Brian Williams?

Surely, he stepped up in the mayor’s absence, given his purview of the city’s “safety?” Nope.

You see, he is currently under suspension for suspicion of phoning in a bomb threat to Los Angeles City Hall.

Well, how about the DEI- and the much-acclaimed “first Latina” director of Los Angeles’s vast waterworks? Bass recruited such talent by nearly doubling the job’s normal salary to $750,000 per year.

What did she accomplish on her over $2,000-a-day salary? Did Janisse Quiñones, “the new Chief Executive Officer and Chief Engineer of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) and the “first Latina woman to lead the organization,” leap into action?

Well, the water very quickly ran out in Pacific Palisades, and the hydrants went dry—as many had been for months prior.

Quiñones claimed that “three million gallons” in tanks above the suburb were mysteriously not up to the task of quenching the LA Dresden. You think?

She apparently gauges disaster preparation by the number of gallons of water available in tanks, not the number of gallons needed to save thousands of homes and lives. And she forgot to tell the public that in fact there is a 117-million-gallon water reservoir atop Pacific Palisades built for some purpose unknown to her.

Yet it was empty and “under repair” for months because of a mere damaged cover. Consider that: a dry autumn, the onset of the usual Santa Ana winds, a recent plague of hilltop wildfires, and Quiñones shuts down the linchpin of a prior generation’s plan to save the Palisades.

Note Quiñones was supposed to be the professional replacement for a retired director of water and power, who himself had been a replacement for another director who was found guilty of bribery and is currently in federal prison.

So goes the agency created by water wizard William Mulholland, who once created the 18-million-person Los Angeles megapolis by tapping every river and reservoir he could to feed the city’s unquenchable thirst for water.

How about fire chief Kristen Crowley? She now blames the mayor for dry hydrants. But in doing so, she pleaded that her job starts only after water flows out of them—as if their inert condition is not really her concern.

The self-celebrity, nonbinary fire chief Kristen Crowley has talked nonstop for the last two years about “diversity, equity, and inclusion” and the “LGBTQ community.” Less was said about the need to ensure the most meritocratic force possible, unmatched equipment, and long preplanned measures to prevent conflagrations—and screaming to high heaven that fire hydrants were either being stolen or bone dry.

Instead, like Bass, Crowley was mostly mute about the lack of preparation or the absence of sufficient warning to those about to be engulfed.

How about her deputy Kristine Lawson, who claimed people in need want to see fire officers arrive who look like they do? And if they don’t?

She is also on record with this: “Am I able to carry your husband out of a fire? He got himself in the wrong place if I have to carry him out.” Consider that helpful LAFD logic: So, if you are a man who suffers cardiac arrest and collapses on your kitchen floor, it is your fault that you died without medical attention, not Kristine’s, who apparently either would not or could not carry you out the door.

How about morally bankrupt politicians?

The speaker of the California Assembly, Robert Rivas, along with Governor Gavin Newsom, had just called a special session of the legislature to “Trump-proof” California. He wished to allot millions of dollars in state funds—in a year of massive deficits—to sue and impede the federal government.

Will Rivas’s Trump “resistance” session include canceling California’s simultaneous request for hundreds of billions of federal dollars for Los Angeles from the Trump administration? When asked whether it was wise to borrow millions to sue Trump while Los Angeles was burning, Rivas mumbled, stuttered, and revealed himself to be little more than a caricature of an incompetent.

Governor Gavin “Nero” Newsom made his usual performance art, virtual-signaling appearance. When asked why the hydrants were dry, he batted it off as a “local problem.” He now uses his own campaign website, linked to Democratic fundraising efforts, to warn the fire-struck public about supposed “misinformation.”

But what could Newsom do or say? His entire tenure is synonymous with too many catastrophic forest fires and too little water.

He did nothing after the catastrophic Aspen and Paradise fires to revive the timber industry to glean and clean the forests. He never allowed much new grazing on fuel-rich hills or sent crews in to cut back the chaparral.

He never reconsidered his policies of diverting precious snowmelt from the Sacramento River tributaries to flow into the sea to help the delta smelt rather than to ensure that farmers could irrigate their crops or that Los Angeles County reservoirs were fully banked.

Despite an approved 2014 $7.5 billion bond to build three huge dams and reservoirs, Newsom ensured that we built none: not the easily constructed Sites reservoir, not Temperance Flat, and not Los Banos Grandes, all tertiary foothill reservoirs that could have given California by now nearly five million additional acre-feet of storage.

Or is it worse than that?

Governor Dam-Buster still brags about how he greenlit blowing up four dams on the Klamath River—the largest dam removal in American history. The dams provided 80,000 homes with clean hydroelectric power, farmers with irrigation water, and the public with recreation and flood control.

Instead of following the voters’ bond to build reservoirs and dams, Newsom preferred to dynamite them. The ensuing muddy deluge wiped out the surrounding riparian ecosystem.

Joe Biden, now in the last days of his disastrous tenure, was in the LA area by chance to boast that he had put thousands of valuable federal square miles off limits.

Instead, he mumbled about his new great-grandson and relief that his kid’s house was saved, as the fire was engulfing 12,000 homes of others. Then Biden unceremoniously left, heartbroken that his last junket to Italy might have to be canceled as Los Angeles continued to burn. Later he too grumbled about “misinformation,” which is his synonym for telling the truth about the Los Angeles green woke bomb.

Kamala Harris? Was the vice president perhaps marshaling federal money and assets to stop the fires in her last weeks in office? After all, we remember from her 2024 campaign Harris’s frenzied efforts to help out during national disasters, as she scolded the capable Florida governor Ron DeSantis that he was not partnering enough with her to mitigate the effects of flooding.

She too proved invisible other than remarking the fire was “apocalyptic.” Instead, Harris was too busy planning a multimillion-dollar junket in her last week in office and of free royal travel.

Insurance? Is there some plan to rebuild these suburbs as they were, to ensure there are some $300 billion to pay out claims? Well, no again. The state is broke and is driving out insurance companies, not enticing them in. Its public “Fair” unfair insurance plan of last resort is underfunded and will go insolvent once a week or two of claims flows in.

California’s failure to effectively prevent and put out fires—along with hyper-regulation and failure to combat an epidemic of insurance fraud—has destroyed the state’s insurance industry. Given the prior inability of homeowners to buy credible fire insurance at any cost, there are thousands of now-homeless who had no insurance at all.

How about the region’s large homeless population that camps out on the streets and in the tinderbox chaparral above the suburbs? Did the city investigate arson or detain, arrest, charge, and jail those rounded up with incendiary devices or seen lighting fires? Of course not. They vetoed any notion long ago of an anti-camping ordinance.

Collective Suicide

Add it all up.

The California nihilist green ethos and the left-wing politicians who run the madhouse ensured there is no effort to glean the forests and hills of combustible fuel.

There is not enough water for hydrants, not enough to deliver to Los Angeles, and when it arrives, there is too much incompetence to know how to use it.

There were no real warnings to residents that they had mere minutes to flee for their lives. Or was it worse still? As the fires wore on, continuous false alarms of new fires sparked unnecessary and dangerous mass evacuations citywide, destroying what, if any, trust was left in the fire department.

There is no reason to believe that such derelict politicians during the next fire will not again be AWOL on DEI junkets, boasting of their genders, their race, and their sexual orientation, but not of their duties to those whose lives they are sworn to protect.

The final tragic irony?

California’s DEI “humanism” and Green New Deal environmentalism ensured the cruelest imaginable treatment of thousands of people and unrivaled destruction of the natural ecosystem.

No one in the government dares to guess about what might have caused the fires, even as they cry “climate change”—as if to do so would expose their own incompetency or confirm rumors of sporadic homeless arsonists.

The California green utopians, by their very ideological zealotry, ensured their fires likely will have released into the atmosphere several weeks’ worth of the entire state’s collective auto emissions.

The fires will have wiped out thousands of protected flora and fauna, will have released toxic fumes into the air, and will have destroyed the lives of thousands of Los Angeles residents for years to come.

To paraphrase a 1960s California left-wing slogan—green-woke is not healthy for children and other living things.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 17:00

Texas Sues Allstate For Secretly Tracking Drivers Through Apps, Using Data To Raise Rates

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Texas Sues Allstate For Secretly Tracking Drivers Through Apps, Using Data To Raise Rates

The state of Texas has sued Allstate and a subsidiary, Arity, accusing the insurance giant of illegally tracking drivers through cell phone apps without their consent and then using the data to charge more for car insurance.

Photo: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images

According to Texas AG Ken Paxton, Allstate created the “world’s largest driving behavior database,” which collected information on more than 45 million Americans after paying mobile app developers millions of dollars to secretly incorporate tracking software. The software was designed beginning in 2015 by Allstate’s data analytics unit, Arity, and integrated into several apps such as Fuel Rewards, GasBuddy, Life360 and Allstate-owned Routely.

In a Monday complaint filed in a Texas state  court near Houston, Texas says Allstate also profited by selling the data to other insurers.

According to a press release from Paxton, These actions violated the Texas Data Privacy and Security Act (“TDPSA”), which created heightened protections for Texans’ sensitive data, including but not limited to precise geolocation information. The law requires clear notice and informed consent regarding how a company will use Texans’ sensitive data. Allstate never provided notice or obtained Texans’ consent to collect or sell their sensitive data. This is the first enforcement action ever filed by a State Attorney General to enforce a comprehensive data privacy law.

In addition, Texas has accused Allstate of purchasing data about vehicles’ whereabouts directly from automakers in order to more accurately determine – not based on cellphone locations – when policyholders are actually driving.

Participating manufacturers allegedly include; Toyota, Lexus, Mazda, and Stellantis’ Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, Maserati and Ram.

The lawsuit seeks restitution and other damages for consumers, along with civil fines of up to $10,000 per violation, and the destruction of illegally collected data.

Paxton filed a similar lawsuit in August accusing General Motors of installing tracking technology on over 14 million vehicles since 2015 to collect driver data, which the company sold to insurers and other companies without drivers’ consent.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 16:40

L.A. Residents Sue Edison Utility Over Potential Role In Palisades Fire

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L.A. Residents Sue Edison Utility Over Potential Role In Palisades Fire

Update (1508ET):

 *   *   * 

Update (1320ET):

Energy company Edison International was sued on Monday for its alleged role in igniting at least one of the wildfires in Los Angeles County. 

Bloomberg reports, “The lawsuit is on behalf of a group of homeowners, renters, business owners and others with properties destroyed by the Eaton Fire in the Pasadena area,” adding, “The suit alleges a Southern California Edison pole holding power lines was the cause of the blaze that leveled the town of Altadena.”

X users said…

Shares of Edison International plunged 13% on Monday morning, bringing the total decline since the fires started nearly one week ago to 28%. The daily RSI (14D) has fallen to 7.9. 

Zooming in on the most oversold RSI ever… 

Edison did not comment on the suit that appeared on the Los Angeles Superior Court website on Monday morning. 

Meanwhile, it’s only a matter of time before lawsuits are filed against the City of Los Angeles or even the State of California for gross negligence. These lawsuits will likely cite improper forest management, cuts to fire budgets, and the mishandling of the Palisades Reservoir, given that city officials knew very well about dry conditions and wind storms ahead of the first full week of the new year.

 *   *   * 

Firefighters are racing to contain three active wildfires in Los Angeles County as Santa Ana winds are forecasted to return Monday morning. The fires have scorched 40,000 acres, forced the evacuation of at least 150,000 residents, and claimed 24 lives. Residents are expressing outrage at far-left Democratic politicians in the county and state, blaming them for negligence in the spread of the Palisades Fire. At the same time, AP News tried to provide cover for Democrats and blame the fire’s spread on ‘climate change.’ 

The National Weather Service has issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation” red flag warnings for the Ventura and Los Angeles counties through Wednesday. Gusts are expected to be between 50 and 65 mph, with dry air that will worsen conditions for firefighters and likely lead to more evacuations. 

There are currently three fires burning (list courtesy of LA Times): 

Palisades Fire:

Burned 23,713 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of late Sunday, the fire was 13% contained. Many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Santa Monica, Calabasas, Brentwood and Encino are under evacuation orders or warnings. More than 12,000 structures remain threatened. Officials estimate that more than 5,300 structures, including many homes, have been damaged or destroyed.

Eaton Fire:

Burned 14,117 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. Additional evacuation orders were mandated Thursday afternoon when fire climbed toward Mt. Wilson. Other mandatory evacuations were lifted as city officials notified residents in Glenoaks Canyon and Chevy Chase Canyon that it was safe to return to their homes. As of 8 p.m. Sunday, the fire remained 27% contained. Officials say 7,000 structures have been burned in the fire.

Hurst Fire:

Burned 779 acres in the area around Sylmar. Evacuation orders have been lifted. As of Sunday night, the fire was 89% contained, according to Cal Fire.

Fire Map (LA Times):

Latest Zero Hedge headlines:

Latest LA Times headlines:

  • Increasing winds bring potential for ‘explosive fire growth’ across LA County this week

  • Death toll from Palisades and Eaton fires climbs to 24. 

  • Newsom to deploy an additional 1,000 National Guard members to LA.

  • Investigators study Eaton Canyon electrical tower area as possible origin of Altadena fire

On Sunday, Captain Andrew Cruz from the LA County Sheriff’s Incident Management Team said a curfew in the fire zones remains in place. 

“Nightside, we continue to support the efforts here at the Palisades Fire with 104 sworn personnel plus 16 National Guard soldiers,” Cruz said.

Looters were out in force over the weekend, ransacking mansions in the Palisades area despite police and National Guard deterrence.

“Yes. Please be careful in some areas, as there is non-zero risk of armed looters. Cybertruck side panels are bulletproof to subsonic projectiles (handguns, shotgun & Tommy gun), but the glass is not, so make sure to duck if you see anyone wielding a gun. This is not fiction,” Elon Musk wrote on X. He noted earlier, “We are going to position Cybertrucks with Starlinks and free WiFi in a grid pattern in the areas that most need it in the greater LA/Malibu area.” 

Palisades transformed into an inferno. 

The debate over gross negligence centers on why the Palisades Reservoir was not filled before the fire.

“Incompetence in the limit is indistinguishable from sabotage,” Musk wrote on X. He’s referring to LA Mayor Karen Bass and Gov. Gavin Newsom. There’s a lot of controversy about fire budget cuts and the mismanagement of resources. 

For the households that lost everything, it’s time to hold the radical leftist politicians in charge accountable. This is unacceptable.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 15:08

Biden Pressing Gaza Deal Hard Before Trump Inauguration, Reports Of ‘Breakthrough’

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Biden Pressing Gaza Deal Hard Before Trump Inauguration, Reports Of ‘Breakthrough’

There is once again talk of a “breakthrough” in efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, Reuters and other publications are reporting Monday. President Biden is also touting this in his last foreign policy speech:

A Gaza deal is “on the brink”, President Joe Biden has said in his final foreign policy address. The outgoing US president said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians.

“In the war between Israel and Hamas, we’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” Biden said while visiting the State Department for the final time as president.

What’s new about this current round of negotiations is that Trump’s envoy for the conflict, Steve Witkoff, is present, along with the Biden administration’s outgoing envoy Brett McGurk. A draft deal has reportedly been presented to all sides, and mediators are awaiting Hamas’ response. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal,” an official told Reuters. And separately, the Israeli side has said: “The hostage deal outline is clear, and Israel has come a long, long way.”

Via Al Jazeera

“We are moving forward slowly and carefully. We hope that Hamas will stop with its refusals,” the official added. According to further details:

Mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

The official said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar’s prime minister.

The proposed three-stage deal comes as the Biden administration desperately hopes to mediate peace with merely a week to go before Trump is inaugurated on Jan.20. What has stalled things in the past is Hamas’ demand that Israel’s military leave the Gaza Strip, something which PM Netanyahu has considered a non-starter.

For much of the last year Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed to be at the ‘goal line’ of achieving a deal, but talks have consistently collapsed despite these overly optimistic assessments.

Still, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is now claiming that greater progress has been made due to the coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams.

“There is progress, it looks much better than previously. I want to thank our American friends for the huge efforts they are investing to secure a hostage deal,” Saar told a press briefing. Biden’s White House officials have said a deal is being pressed hard ahead of Trump taking office:

The Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week, White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told Bloomberg News earlier today. Despite expressing optimism, he stressed there were no guarantees that Israel and Hamas would agree to such a deal that could pause the 15-month-old war on the devastated territory. The US is pressing for a deal before Donald Trump takes office on 20 January.

Is there legitimate progress this time due to the Trump factor?

Starting early last month the president-elect betwen threatening escalation if Hamas and Palestinian militants in Gaza don’t immediately free the remaining Israeli hostages. “Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump had stated on his Truth Social.

He warmed that there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t release the captives. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” Trump continued in the statement.

In Lebanon the 60-day agreed upon ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has largely held. This may provide momentum for regional diplomats to finally secure a path forward in Gaza. There’s officially some 100 Israeli captives still unaccounted for; however, Israeli and US intelligence believe many are deceased.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 15:05

Russia’s Shadow Shipping Fleet: How It Works And Why It Is Hard To Tackle

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Russia’s Shadow Shipping Fleet: How It Works And Why It Is Hard To Tackle

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

Russia has been growing its so-called shadow shipping fleet for several years but concerns have escalated in the last few months after some of them were linked to a series of incidents involving undersea infrastructure.

Germany, Britain, and 10 other European countries agreed in December on measures to “disrupt and deter” Russia’s shadow fleet.

“The shadow fleet presents risks to the environment, maritime safety and security, international seaborne trade, as well as international maritime law and standards. It also works to circumvent our sanctions and soften their impact,” the countries said in a joint statement.

But what is the shadow fleet, why does Russia need it, and can it be disrupted without breaking the international laws of the sea?

Neil Roberts, head of Marine & Aviation at Lloyd’s Market Association, said Russia may control around 1,100 ships—a mixture of oil tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers—but he said it’s something of a misnomer to call them a shadow fleet.

4 Types of Fleet

He told The Epoch Times there are four types of fleet.

“There’s the Western-administered A1 fleet which has all the right insurance and controls. Then, there’s a parallel fleet, run by China, India, and the Asian countries, which is well-maintained but does not follow sanctions.”

“Then, there’s the ‘gray fleet’, which is ships used for smuggling drugs and arms, completely illegal. But then you have the Russian fleet, which they have acquired. Some of it is of a reasonable quality but other vessels are older,” Roberts said.

The term shadow suggests they are secretive but Roberts notes they operate openly and use international shipping lanes, including the Suez Canal.

The ships—which often have a confusing array of aliases—have been plying the world’s seas since long before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. But the conflict and the growing tension with NATO has drawn them into focus.

Not only is the shadow fleet suspected of breaking sanctions but some of the ships are alleged to have tampered with undersea infrastructure, and others are feared to be so old or poorly maintained that they might cause marine pollution.

Last month, the state-owned news agency Tass reported that two Russian ships, the Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239, caused an “oil spill emergency” in the Black Sea after colliding. Both ships were reportedly over 50 years old.

On Dec. 26, a Russian-owned ship, the Eagle S, flying the flag of the Cook Islands, was stopped by the Finnish Border Guard after it was suspected of cutting an undersea cable, Estlink-2, which supplies power to Estonia.

The following day, the Estonian Navy was drafted in to protect the Estlink-1 cable, and the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the Eagle S incident was “the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure.”

Last month, Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Finland, and Estonia said they would begin checking insurance documents of vessels in the English Channel, the Gulf of Finland, and the Kattegat—the strait between Denmark and Sweden.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said, “If the ships do not cooperate, next steps will be taken. They will be put on a list for prohibition, or they will be boarded in certain areas.”

Roberts said those actions bring up the question of legality, “which might be a moot point if you’re in a conflict, but we’re not in a declared conflict.”

During World War II, Allied ships would frequently board and take over German, Japanese, and Italian commercial vessels—or sink them—but because the only countries who are at war here are Russia and Ukraine, there is no “declared conflict” that would permit such action by third parties.

Roberts also pointed to a treaty—posted on the CIA’s website—that prevents ships heading to or from Russia from being intercepted.

The 1857 Copenhagen Treaty states no ship is to be stopped while traveling through the straits between Denmark and Sweden. It was a clause that was scrupulously adhered to throughout the Cold War, when Soviet submarines and battleships would pass through on their way to the open seas.

He said one of the biggest concerns of the Western shipping industry is what would happen if a shadow vessel collided with a ship, or caused a major pollution event.

Lloyd’s of London is the one of the world’s biggest shipping insurance markets in the world, and the Lloyd’s Market Association represents 55 managing agents who together insure 52.6 billion pounds ($64.2 billion) worth of shipping and other assets.

Roberts said, “The question that everyone is asking is: ‘What happens if an insured vessel collides with a sanctioned vessel?’”

Shadow fleet vessels are often subject to obscure ownership, and an insurance structure that allows them to evade detection and sanctions.

But Roberts said while shadow fleet ships need a higher grade of insurance to enter a Western port, all they need to sail the high seas was protection and indemnity insurance, known as P&I.

Last month, Lloyd’s List reported that the European Union had sanctioned another 52 ships, bringing the total under sanctions to 79. Among them was the liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Pioneer, which flies the flag of the tiny Pacific nation of Palau, and is also sanctioned by the United States.

Another ship, also called the Pioneer but now known as Hero II, is an oil tanker sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for its links to Iran.

‘Bankroll His Illegal War’

In its statement on Jan. 6, the British government said it had now sanctioned more than 100 Russian ships, including 93 oil tankers that “Putin has been using to soften the blow of sanctions and bankroll his illegal war in Ukraine.”

Among them were the tankers Ocean Faye, Andaman Skies, and Mianzimu, which Britain claims each carried more than four million barrels of Russian oil in 2024.

Another sanctioned ship is the Feng Shou, a crude oil tanker that flies the flag of Panama and is currently in the Russian Far East. The ship, previously known as the Andromeda Star, was also sanctioned by the European Union in June 2024.

The Open Sanctions website, which is part-funded by the German government, said, “In March 2024, the vessel crashed near Denmark when it was on its way to load Russian oil in the [Baltic] port of Primorsk.

British Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed on Jan. 6 that Britain would lead a 10-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to track potential threats to undersea infrastructure, and monitor Russia’s shadow fleet.

Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) released a statement saying the new system, called Nordic Warden, was activated last week.

The MOD said Nordic Warden “harnesses AI to assess data from a range of sources, including the Automatic Identification System (AIS) ships use to broadcast their position, to calculate the risk posed by each vessel entering areas of interest.”

The statement said, “Specific vessels identified as being part of Russia’s shadow fleet have been registered into the system so they can be closely monitored when approaching key areas of interest.”

The MOD added, “If a potential risk is assessed, the system will monitor the suspicious vessel in real time and immediately send out a warning, which will be shared with JEF participant nations as well as NATO allies.”

It said JEF’s operational headquarters in Northwood, on the outskirts of London, was currently monitoring 22 areas of interest, including the English Channel, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Kattegat.

Roberts said, “There’s a lot of spoofing going on, which is where you say you’re in one place, and you’re somewhere else. And that’s being done in the eastern Mediterranean a lot, and in the Black Sea.”

There is a legal system governing the world’s seas and oceans, called the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS), which was adopted in 1982 but only came into force in 1994.

A sailor keeps watch on an Estonian naval ship patrolling in the Baltic Sea on Jan. 9, 2025. Hendrik Osula/AP

Russia is one of 170 signatories to UNCLOS, but the United States has never signed or ratified it, despite several presidents, including most recently President George W. Bush in 2007, urging the Senate to do so.

Roberts said the convention states clearly the different gradations of water boundaries, from inland waters to oceans.

He said there is no “right of innocent passage” for foreign ships in a country’s lakes, canals, rivers, or ports and they need permission to enter.

“Then, you have your territorial waters where you’ve got full sovereignty, up to 12 nautical miles. Then there’s a contiguous zone up to 24 nautical miles, where you’ve got some ability to intervene if there’s been an offense in your territorial waters,” Roberts said.

“Now, past that, is the EEZ (exclusive economic zone) where, as a country, you’re able to use and exploit marine resources in that area,” he said, referring to the area up to 200 nautical miles from a country’s coast.

“Then, there’s the continental shelf. Not everyone has that, but that’s out to 350 miles, and beyond that is the high seas,” he said.

“Anything outside 12 nautical miles, you haven’t got full power. If you start boarding vessels in what would be considered to be international waters without due cause, that would be antagonistic to the country of the vessels that you’re boarding.”

He said the shadow fleet vessels do not all have the same flag.

“They have a variety of flags, so the number of states that you are likely to offend is quite wide, unless you’ve negotiated with them, unless you can prove that you have due cause,” Roberts said.

He said the 10 countries seeking to “disrupt and deter” Russia’s shadow fleet will have to prove the vessels are not engaged in “innocent passage.”

“How that’s done is quite hard,” Roberts said.

There is also the danger that Russia could retaliate by boarding Western ships in areas such as the Black Sea, or the White Sea, north of Murmansk.

Roberts said he questions whether sanctions against Russia can be effective, especially considering Moscow’s trade links with China.

“There’s a Western desire to show support for Ukraine … and they chose to use sanctions as a way of showing that support. And I think there was an expectation they’d be more effective than they were,” he said.

Roberts said President Woodrow Wilson’s idea in 1919 to use economic sanctions was based on the premise that “they should be more terrible than war.”

But Roberts said, “Unless you’re targeting a very small area, you need international support. And this is where the weakness is: they haven’t got everybody onside.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 14:45

Incoming: “Big Dumps Of Cold Air. Reminiscent Of 2013/14 Winter”

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Incoming: “Big Dumps Of Cold Air. Reminiscent Of 2013/14 Winter”

US natural gas futures spiked to an intraday high of $4.279/MMBtu during Sunday evening trading, driven by forecasts of another round of cold air set to sweep through next week.

“The pattern ahead is about as favorable as it gets for big dumps of cold air. Reminiscent of 2013/14 Winter at times in terms of the cold set up. Most of the country in the deep freezer by Day 8,” private weather forecaster BAMWX wrote on X. 

BAMWX said the “major cold shot” will be the “coldest air yet this year” and “extend all the way to the Deep South.”

“One feature that has continued reoccur throughout this winter has been what we call the +TNH or the Hudson Bay Vortex,” the private weather forecaster said, adding, “We haven’t had a consistent +TNH pattern through winter in several years. The only recent year that had a strong +TNH was 2022.” 

BAMWX noted, “This type of pattern was more common in the early 2010s/late 2000s.” 

According to data compiled by Bloomberg and several weather models, average temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to plunge early next week. Depending on the model, temperatures could range between 20°F and 30°F, remaining well below the 5-, 10-, and 30-year averages through the end of the month.

Heating degree days, a measurement of how cold the temperature is and how much energy is needed to heat a building, for the Lower 48, is expected to soar. This is an indication energy demand will jump even higher. 

The continued cold blast and another round of frigid temperatures sent US NatGas prices as high as $4.279/MMBtu in the overnight hours. 

Last week, Goldman Sachs co-head of Global Commodities Research Samantha Dart explained more about the next round of cold plus elevated LNG exports that forced her to revise her Henry Hub summer 2025 $2.90/mmBtu forecast to $3.30/mmBtu. The prospect of rising LNG exports leaves the analyst’s 2026 target of $4/mmBtu “skewed to the upside.” 

BAMWX’s meteorologist Bret Walts provides clients this morning with a long-range forecast for the Lower 48:

All eyes are on the $4/mmBtu level.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 14:27

Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump As Labor Market, Household Finance Sentiment Crumbles

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Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump As Labor Market, Household Finance Sentiment Crumbles

Inflation expectations among consumers polled in December by the New York Fed unexpectedly jumped at the 3-Year horizon, rising from 2.6% to 3.0%, the highest since 2023; the increase at the three-year horizon was broad-based across age, education, and income groups. At the same time, median 5-year inflation expectations declined to 2.7% from 2.9%, the lowest since March 2024. However, the decline at the five-year point was driven by respondents below age 40 and was most pronounced for those with a high-school education or less (who, we have learned lately, tend to be much more accurate about pretty much everything than their college educated peers). Inflation expectations also rose modestly at the 1-year horizon, where they increased from just below 3.0% to just above. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) was unchanged at the one-year horizon, increased at the three-year horizon, and decreased at the five-year horizon. Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and three-year horizons and declined at the five-year horizon.

The findings follow the release of prelim results of the latest U of Michigan survey published Friday, which showed long-term inflation expectations, five to 10 years ahead, jumped this month to the highest since 2008 on concerns about potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. They also showed consumers see prices rising 3.3% over the next year, up half a percentage point from December’s survey.

The surge in inflation expectations comes as investors sharply scaled back recent bets on Fed rate cuts and the yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes have risen to the highest in over a year as inflation worries have seeped into financial markets. The surveys indicate households also remain uncertain about the central bank’s ability to return inflation to its target in the near term. Monthly data on consumer prices are due Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Year-ahead commodity price expectations for food increased by 0.2% point to 4.0%, while price expectations for other commodities declined. Year-ahead price expectations fell by 0.7% for gas to 2.0% (the lowest reading since September 2022) – good luck with that now that BIden has unleashed a barrage of Russian sanctions that will send oil prices soaring – by 1% point for the cost of college education to 5.7%, by 0.2% for the cost of medical care to 5.8%, and by 0.2 percentage point for rent to 5.5%.

Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%. The series has held in a range from 3.0 to 3.3% since August 2023.

Separately, the New York Fed report showed mixed sentiment on the labor market: While the perceived likelihood of job loss fell, the chances of leaving one’s job voluntarily also declined (as the recent plunge in the JOLTS Quits data set showed) and the perceived chances of finding a new position in the event of job loss fell to 50.2%, the lowest level since April 2021, hardly a ringing endorsement of the validity of Friday’s “red hot” jobs report, which as we will learn in a few months, was complete fake news.

There was more bad news: among other labor market indicators, the NY Fed revealed that median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. At the same time, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months declined by 1.6 percentage points to 11.9%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also declined by 2.0 percentage points to 18.2%. Both readings are the lowest since January 2024. The declines were most pronounced for the respondents with some college education and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.

Turning to household finance, there was more weakness here too: the median expected growth in household income declined by 0.3% point to 2.8%, the lowest reading since May 2021. The series remains slightly above the pre-pandemic level of 2.7% from February 2020.

Meanwhile, median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.8%, remaining well above pre-pandemic levels.

Here are some more observations on the Household Finance part of the survey:

  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions. Expectations about credit access a year from now also deteriorated, with a smaller share of respondents expecting looser credit and a larger share expecting tighter credit a year from now.
  • The median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.0%, its lowest reading since October 2020.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.9%, reaching the lowest level since January 2018 (good luck with that).
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 25.2%.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now declined by 0.6 percentage point to 39.8%.

Finally, consumers are also growing more concerned about their ability to keep up with debt payments, according to the survey results. The perceived odds of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 14.2%, matching the highest reading since April 2020. Those earning more than $100,000 reported the highest probability of missing a payment in more than 10 years.

Overall, consumer sentiment is becoming increasingly stagflationary as inflation refuses to drop (and remains sticky) while most other economic reading are starting to deteriorate: slowly at first, then all of a sudden…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/13/2025 – 13:50