Beyond Cookies – How To Stop The Invisible Browser Fingerprint That Tracks You Everywhere
For years, the privacy advice was simple: clear your cookies, use incognito mode, or click “Reject All” on those annoying consent banners. That advice is now outdated.
A groundbreaking study published last year has delivered the first peer-reviewed proof that the $600 billion online advertising industry has moved on from cookies.The new tracking method is called browser fingerprinting, and it works even if you never log in, never accept cookies, and have legally opted out under privacy laws.
Researchers from Texas A&M University and Johns Hopkins University built a tool named FPTrace to measure exactly how this works in the wild. They simulated real user sessions, systematically altered browser fingerprints, and watched what happened to the ads being served and the bids advertisers placed in real time. The results were clear: when the fingerprint changed, the price advertisers were willing to pay to target that “user” changed with it. Tracking signals dropped. The system was actively using the fingerprint to follow people across sessions and sites.
And crucially, this happened even in tests where cookies were fully deleted and users were in “opt-out” mode under GDPR and CCPA rules. The law’s exit door for cookies does not cover fingerprinting.
How Browser Fingerprinting Works (No Permission Required)
Every time your browser loads a page, it leaks dozens of tiny, seemingly harmless signals:
Screen resolution and color depth
Installed fonts
GPU model and graphics capabilities
Audio processing signatures
Browser version, plugins, and language settings
Time zone
Canvas rendering differences (how it draws hidden shapes)
Whether you run an ad blocker
Even battery level in some cases
Alone, each detail is common. Combined, they create a unique “fingerprint” that can identify your device with startling precision. No cookies. No login. No pop-up asking for consent. Just loading the page is enough.
Studies have long shown how pervasive this is. Princeton’s Web Transparency Project and related research have repeatedly found fingerprinting scripts running on a significant share of popular websites.
Princeton researchers tested the top 10,000 websites.
Fingerprinting scripts on 88% of them.
The EFF tested browsers directly.
83% had a fingerprint unique enough to track with no cookies at all.
You do not have to visit a shady site.
You just have to open a browser.
The Electronic Frontier Foundation’s long-running Cover Your Tracks test (formerly Panopticlick) has demonstrated that a large majority of browsers produce fingerprints unique enough to track users without any cookies at all—historically around 83% or higher in large samples.
Why This Matters Now
Cookies are dying. Google has been phasing out third-party cookies in Chrome, and Apple has aggressively blocked them in Safari for years. Advertisers needed a replacement that users cannot easily clear, block, or reset. Browser fingerprinting is that replacement: it is invisible, persistent, and rebuilds itself if your setup changes slightly.
The result? Targeted ads that follow you across devices and sessions, even when you think you’ve gone “private.” And because it operates below the surface of most privacy laws, the protections many people rely on simply don’t apply.
What Actually Works to Protect Yourself
Most people get privacy wrong by making their setup more unique (rare browsers + 30 extensions = the most identifiable fingerprint on the internet). True anonymity comes from uniformity, not obscurity.
Here are the proven defenses, ranked by effectiveness:
1. Choose the right browser (the single biggest decision)
Tor Browser – The gold standard. It forces every user to share the exact same fingerprint. Anonymity through uniformity.
Brave – Excellent middle ground for everyday use. It randomizes canvas, WebGL, audio, and other fingerprintable surfaces every session.
Firefox (with strict settings) – Strong out of the box and highly customizable. Avoid Chrome for privacy-sensitive activity; it offers no native fingerprint resistance.
2. Add the right extensions (Firefox or Brave only)
uBlock Origin – Blocks fingerprinting scripts before they can run. (Note: Chrome’s Manifest V3 severely limited the full version; Firefox is required for maximum protection.)
CanvasBlocker – Randomizes your canvas output whenever a site tries to read it.
3. Flip one powerful Firefox setting Type about:config in the address bar → search for privacy.resistFingerprinting → set it to true. This standardizes canvas, timezone, fonts, and other outputs so you blend in with everyone else. Takes 30 seconds and makes a measurable difference.
Bottom line: Clearing cookies no longer protects you. The advertising industry has quietly built a more resilient tracking system that operates in the shadows of your browser.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei Surrounded By 24/7 Medical Team In Hideout As Generals Run Iran: NYT
The NY Times in a new deep dive of what governing structures now look like inside Iran says what’s already long been obvious to many in the wake of longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death: “When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role.”
The publication says it was able to interview at least half-a-dozen Iranian insiders, including IRGC officials, and individuals who know the younger Khamenei “well”. The NY Times describes of Mojtaba Khamenei: “His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes.”
Apparently even top ‘trusted’ generals and IRGC commanders do visit him for fear of being surveilled and tracked to his location by Israel and the United States.
Per the sources cited in the Times, “Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health.”
And more: “One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery.”
All of this provides an explanation as to why he has never been seen or heard from in public since Trump’s Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. He has not so much as been photographed, and when state media has issued a few prior statements, it does so via text or what appears to be AI-configured audio over state media airwaves.
This fact has unleashed an avalanche of speculation as to his fate over the course of the war, and who is “really in charge”. And yet it’s also well-known that Iran is able to function militarily based on autonomy and dispersion of command among units, with the IRGC given more independence to act.
The White House has alleged there are essentially two factions vying for power and direction over the war – the civilian leadership and the IRGC command sides.
“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House, claimed in the NYT report. But as expected the situation is nuanced: “There is, perhaps, deference to him,” he continued. “He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now.”
As we and other have pointed out, in public at least the de facto day-to-day leader of the country remains speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He has taken point as lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, and has been the public face of updating his country and the world on both the status of the war and the now stalled negotiations.
One other interesting detail in the Times report is seen in the following:
Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.
Some pundits have correctly pointed out that skepticism is warranted, also given the NYT’s often deeply inaccurate reporting on Bush’s Iraq war invasion, and other Mideast conflict zones including Syria:
With all due respect, remain skeptical about the credibility of the The New York Times report.
– If leaks of this magnitude were truly that easy, it would have been just as easy for Mossad to obtain precise information on Mojtaba Khamenei’s whereabouts, with obvious… https://t.co/g36ONAQUpd
The NY Times alleged findings has it to the conclusion that even big decisions are currently under control of the generals and IRGC apparatus: “The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei’s delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now,” the report concludes.
The United States military has an active node on the Bitcoin network, according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). The disclosure, made at a House Services committee hearing, marks the first known confirmation that a U.S. military combatant command is directly participating in the Bitcoin peer-to-peer network.
“We have a node on the Bitcoin network,” Paparo wrote. “We’re doing a number of operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol.”
The statement landed one day after Paparo made waves in Congress with testimony that framed Bitcoin as a tool of American power.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Four-star military officer Admiral Samuel Paparo confirms the USA is running a Bitcoin node.
“We have a node on the Bitcoin network right now. We’re doing a number of operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol.” pic.twitter.com/4JIOIMtlTW
On April 21, Paparo testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee during a FY2027 defense authorization hearing. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) asked Paparo whether U.S. leadership in Bitcoin could give the country an edge against China in the Indo-Pacific theater.
Paparo did not deflect. He told the committee that INDOPACOM’s research centers on Bitcoin as a computer science tool — not as a financial asset.
“Our research into Bitcoin is as a computer science tool,” Paparo said.
“It’s the combination of cryptography, a blockchain, and a proof of work. And Bitcoin shows incredible potential as a computer science tool that through the proof-of-work protocols, actually imposes more cost than just the algorithmic securing of networks and our ability to operate.”
He described Bitcoin as “a peer-to-peer, zero-trust transfer of value” and said that “anything that supports all instruments of national power for the United States of America is to the good.”
The testimony was notable for what Paparo did not say. He did not describe Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a payment system, or a speculative instrument. He framed it as a computer science system with direct military relevance — a distinction that set his remarks apart from most official government commentary on crypto.
What running a Bitcoin node means
A Bitcoin node is a computer that runs the Bitcoin software, maintains a full copy of the blockchain, and independently validates every transaction and block against the network’s consensus rules. Nodes do not mine Bitcoin. They enforce the rules of the protocol and relay data across the peer-to-peer network.
Running a node gives an operator direct, trustless access to the Bitcoin network without relying on any third party. The operator’s computer connects to other nodes worldwide, verifies incoming transactions and blocks, and rejects anything that violates Bitcoin’s protocol rules.
For INDOPACOM, operating a node positions the command as a first-hand participant in the Bitcoin network, not an observer.
The disclosure that the military is conducting “operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol” suggests the command is moving beyond theoretical research and into active experimentation with Bitcoin’s cryptographic architecture as a defensive tool.
As of early 2026, there are an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 publicly reachable full nodes on the Bitcoin network, though the actual number is likely higher since many nodes operate behind firewalls and are not publicly visible.
Crude Spikes On Israeli Report: Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf Resigns From Negotiating Team After IRGC Intervention
Summary
Israeli media says Iran Parliament Speaker resigns from negotiating team under IRGC pressure, oil spikes.
Trump orders US Navy ‘shoot & kill’ small Iranian boats amid concern over mines in Hormuz. Says US now “doesn’t need a deal”.
Overnight, US military intercepted two more Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade And in Indian Ocean US conducted a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran.
Media sources confirm based on prior Trump post that US has extended the ceasefire indefinitely until ‘unified proposal’ can be brought forward by Tehran.
Iran announces first Hormuz tolls paid to the country’s central bank. Also asserts US blockade breached & could build atomic bomb “if we wanted to”.
‘Air Defenses Active’ Over Tehran Reports: Oil Spikes to 2-Week High
Nour News says cause still unclear, and this could be another drill, or false alarm, or a mere lone drone. Israel is denying it has launched an attack. But oil immediately reacted:
Parliament Speaker Resigns after IRGC Intervention
Israel’s N12 News has issued a breaking headline claiming that Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf, who has appeared to run the day to day over the civilian government, has resigned from the country’s negotiating team following the intervention of the IRGC. There have been rumors and unverified murmurings that he was even arrested.
Of course, given this comes via Israel – which is a party to the conflict – it should be taken with a grain of salt until verified; however Newsquawk notes it was enough to hit stocks and cause a spike in crude…
Meanwhile, Iranian social media accounts of Iran’s two highest civilian officials have sought to push back against the current White House/MSM consensus that Washington is dealing with a fractured, divided Iranian nation when it comes to negotiations:
Same person controlling Iran’s top X accounts: Pezeshkian and Ghalibab publish identical posts 1 minute apart pic.twitter.com/fTVMm6jB9i
Iran Asserts US Blockade Breached; Could Build Nuke “If We Wanted To”
US CENTCOM on Thursday announced its forces have redirected 33 Iran-linked vessels in the Hormuz Strait since the start of the blockade; however, Iranian state media is citing the below public source tanker data (in a Telegram post) to proclaim that four Iranian oil tankers successfully crossed the US blockade and enter Iranian waters.
According to the latest statements out of top Iran officials, Tehran is demonstrating “strength” in the strait, and also the foreign ministry has insisted that while the country is still not seeking nuclear weapons, it possesses the capability to create a bomb if needed. Via Al Jazeera: “We are not seeking to manufacture a nuclear bomb from our stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and if we wanted to, we could.”
Meanwhile Iran’s foreign ministry has commented on the freeze on Pakistan talks, saying it has not decided to participate as of yet, but emphasized too that it is “not an option” to transfer out of the country its highly enriched uranium.
Based on today’s (2026‑04‑23) imagery, we have identified 9 Iranian tankers at Chabahar, Iran. There were 5 on 2026‑04‑21. HERO2 (9362073) and M.T HEDY (9212888) are back in Chabahar after exfiltrating the blockade line. DIONA (9569695), unmentioned below; has also returned. https://t.co/sx5KjSkAXNpic.twitter.com/6e1SQGzlxs
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 23, 2026
Iran Confirms First Hormuz Toll Payments to Central Bank
On Thursday Iran publicly announced for the first time that initial toll payments have been successfully transferred to the state-operated Central Bank of Iran (CBI):
The Iranian authorities have received revenue from tolls for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, Parliament Deputy Speaker Hamid Reza Hajibabai said.
“The first revenue received from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the Central Bank’s account,” the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.
A specific monetary amount was not given – but it can go up to $2 million per tanker, officials have indicated. This week has seen reports that several Iranian tankers, with transponders off, have made it past the US Navy’s blockade – which the Pentagon has denied.
Latest From Trump: ‘Doesn’t Need a Deal’
Talks have stalled, and don’t appear to be any closer – despite some optimistic Thursday early headlines – as the two sides are as far away as ever on the nuclear issue. This is perhaps why Trump has agreed the US ‘doesn’t need a deal’ to get what it wants from Iran. The president shared a Washington Post article wherein the author argues that Iran is running out of [oil] storage, money, and time.
The below fresh Truth Social commentary also generally reflects recent reporting and the outlook of WaPo’s Marc Thiessen, of Iraq War infamy as a former longtime speechwriter for Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush:
It should be noted that this is some of Marc Thiessen’s prior content and ‘reporting’. He’s the most hawkish of all the hawkish pundits, lately also appearing on Mark Levin. And…
Mark Thiessen, in Mark Levin interview Trump urged all his followers to watch, makes the case for troops on the ground in Iran: “We have to get what Donald Trump correctly calls ‘the nuclear dust.'”
Despite a ceasefire still technically being on, President Trump has just ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any small Iranian boat which poses a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, especially ones “putting mines in the waters” of the strait. This risks rapid escalation already amid tit-for-tat tanker seizures, and it means a shooting war could soon open up in the contested vital waterway.
Oil, and markets reacted immediately on the escalatory order from Washington:
Status of Stalled Pakistan Negotiations: ‘Breakthrough’ Soon?
US hours began with a somewhat optimistic headline, picked up by Reuters, which was strangely enough first issued by Chinese media. Iranian sources said preparations for Iran-US negotiations could produce a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow,” according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. However, this supposed ‘breakthrough’ speaks to merely getting to the table, which last weekend the sides failed to do in what was the planned, but canceled, second round.
Meanwhile a reported Pakistani proposal calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions on Iran.
Pakistani officials blamed the US blockade, not internal divisions in Iran, for the stalled talks, while President Trump apparently having extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing what he described as “fractured” leadership in Tehran.
Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. From a Tuesday Truth Social Post: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”
Another US Boarding… in Indian Ocean
US forces conducted “a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean” overnight, the US Department of Defense said on X.
The statement said the vessel was operating within the area of responsibility of United States Indo-Pacific Command. “We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” it said. “International waters cannot be used as a shield by sanctioned actors. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”
The interdiction video put out by US Central Command:
Overnight, U.S. forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean within the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.
The Hormuz chokepoint standoff between Tehran and the US military has become the center of the nearly two-month conflict. This standoff marks the next phase following an extended ceasefire with Iran after a second round of peace talks was canceled in Pakistan earlier this week.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is allowing Iran more time to respond to US demands, but expects Tehran to present a “unified proposal.”
“So, again, the president’s offering them a little bit of flexibility because we want to see a unified proposal to the president’s very strong proposal. And he’s made his red lines very clear,” Leavitt said.
Iran has stated that it will not resume negotiations with US officials while a US naval blockade on its ports remains in place, and the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade.
In response to Trump’s ceasefire extension, Iran’s state TV cited the foreign ministry as saying it is monitoring developments and that the armed forces are ready for any threat.
With Hormuz effectively shut this week, roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows remain highly disrupted as the energy shock ripples from the Middle East to Asia, Africa, Europe, and finally the West Coast of the US.
A new Department of War assessment cited by The Washington Post said it would take US forces six months to clear the maritime chokepoint of mines deployed by Iranian naval forces.
Other overnight news includes Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announcing that Secretary John C. Phelan will be stepping down. “On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” Parnell said in a statement. “We wish him well in his future endeavors.”
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Ceasefire Extension
US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry
Iran has said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its port remains in place
Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad for peace talks, but Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently
Hormuz
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and another ship identified as ‘Epaminondes’ on Wednesday
Iran has collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker
Blockade
The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers Hedy and Hero II that tried to evade its blockade earlier this week
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers sailed past a US blockade this week, ferrying roughly 9 million barrels of oil to market
Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while two of its own oil supertankers tested the US blockade
Market Impacts
Energy prices are rising again due to the impasse and worsening tension over the Strait of Hormuz
Emirates is operating at 65% of capacity with about 13% of airports in its network still cut off
Honeywell’s outlook assumes the conflict will last through the second quarter and decrease revenue by about $100 million to $150 million
Sweden may need to restrict energy use if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, with the government examining potential limits on fuel use
Chart of the Day (via UBS)
Commentary on energy markets from UBS analyst Catherine Gordon:
The UBS oil & gas team continues to argue the scale of disruption is underpriced in both oil and equities: the UBS base case had de-escalation in early April and gradual resumption of flows over 2Q26, keeping Brent at $100/bbl in 2Q26 and in the low to mid-$80s in 2H26, but this path requires actual improvements in flows very soon, rather than only a ceasefire.
Absent progress toward normalizing energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz within the next week or two, UBS warns the market risks a significant spike in oil and LNG prices, with longer disruption into May breaching recent highs of ~$120/bbl for front month and ~$150/bbl for Dated Brent.
Energy‑dedicated investors continue to focus on barrels versus rhetoric: each day of stalemate implies a forfeiture of roughly 12–15mb/d of production. The market is now moving into an energy “air pocket,” which should drive a convergence between dated and forward oil prices, or between divergent price expectations in the physical and paper energy markets.
From a trading perspective, broader equities have remained resilient on “de‑escalation” headlines, but the setup still feels very fragile, with technicals having done much of the work (CTAs slowing), positioning has caught up, and index‑level valuations are pricing in relatively little disruption.
Brent crude futures are trading at $103 a barrel.
*This is the running blog of the US-Iran conflict for Thursday.
Republicans Open New Front In Growing Battle Against “Climate Lawfare”
Republicans in Congress are taking action to shield U.S. energy producers from “Climate lawfare,” the relentless barrage of frivolous lawsuits orchestrated by radical environmental activists.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) introduced S.4340, a bill that would bar frivolous lawsuits from green activist groups seeking damages, injunctions, or other relief for harms allegedly caused by the end use of energy products. Senators Ted Budd (R- NC), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mike Lee (R-UT) are cosponsoring the legislation. The House companion bill, H.R. 8330, was introduced yesterday by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY). The bill would also void any energy penalty law and preempts any states’ attempts to regulate interstate and global emissions.
“Radical environmental groups have waged a coordinated campaign to weaponize our judicial system against American energy producers, including many in Texas,” Cruz said in a statement. “They’re using meritless lawsuits to bankrupt our energy industry, kill good paying jobs, and drive up the cost of electricity and gasoline for hardworking families. I am proud to lead this bill to stop that abuse to protect American jobs, lower energy costs, and defend American energy dominance.”
“Energy security is national security, and we will not self-sabotage our critical industries with a cascade of costly lawsuits and extreme penalties that jeopardize American drilling. America’s energy producers should be protected from the dangerous legal precedent that would be set by the retroactive punishment of lawful activity,” Hageman said.
The bill has already won applause by energy groups aligned with President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda.
“Green left activists have always gone to extraordinary lengths to impose their anti-energy agenda on Americans. Filing sweeping lawsuits against oil and gas companies in an attempt to force policy outcomes they have failed to achieve in the legislative and administrative arenas is some of their most egregious work yet,” American Energy Alliance president Tom Pyle said. “This kind of politically motivated litigation threatens not only energy stability, security, and affordability but also the integrity of our legal system.”
The legislation arrives as California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont have taken landmark legal action aimed at holding fossil fuel companies accountable for misrepresenting to the public about their products’ role in climate change.
On Friday, the Supreme Court delivered a unanimous procedural victory for sanity, ruling that certain environmental damage lawsuits, including one against Chevron for alleged destruction of coastal wetlands in Louisiana, can be removed from hostile state courts to more neutral federal forums.
“Chevron’s case fits comfortably within the ordinary meaning of a suit ‘relating to’ the performance of federal duties,” said Justice Clarence Thomas. “Chevron has plausibly alleged a close relationship between its challenged conduct and the performance of its federal duties —not a tenuous, remote, or peripheral one.”
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told senators on April 21 that glyphosate, a key ingredient in herbicides like Roundup, causes cancer and that human consumption of the chemical should be minimized.
His comments came amid growing political and legal controversy over the chemical, which is widely used in agriculture. During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked Kennedy whether the chemical caused cancer.
Without hesitation, Kennedy replied, “Yes.” Schatz also asked if the chemical was safe for human use.
“I mean, safe, or does it kill weeds? It kills weeds,” Kennedy said. “I would say it’s important to minimize consumption of glyphosate as much as possible.”
Schatz told Kennedy he was being “uncharacteristically diplomatic about glyphosate,” which Kennedy, a standard-bearer for the Make America Healthy Again movement, denied.
Kennedy helped secure a $289 million award from Monsanto in 2018 while representing a client who alleged Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Now, Kennedy is the leading health official for an administration that is defending Monsanto in a Supreme Court case set for oral argument just days after the health secretary’s testimony.
That case, known as Monsanto v. Durnell, similarly involves a man alleging that Monsanto’s Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Justice Department didn’t argue as much on glyphosate’s alleged health hazards as it did that the lower-court verdict against Monsanto was legally flawed.
President Donald Trump addressed the issue in February, signing an executive order that said glyphosate-based herbicides were critical to the nation’s economy and national security.
“Any major restrictions in access to glyphosate-based herbicides would result in economic losses for growers and make it untenable for them to meet growing food and feed demands,” his order reads.
“Ensuring an adequate supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides is thus crucial to the national security and defense, including food-supply security, which is essential to protecting the health and safety of Americans.”
Schatz told Kennedy he had many friends in Hawaii who supported the health secretary, but they were shocked when Kennedy put out a February statement in support of Trump’s executive order on glyphosate, which would also give immunity to manufacturers if Congress were to pass it into law.
“Pesticides and herbicides are toxic by design,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X. “Unfortunately, our agricultural system depends heavily on these chemicals.”
The executive order, and Kennedy’s reaction, led to pushback among Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, supporters, who denounced Trump’s characterization of glyphosate as critical to national security.
“I was very clear with the president about my own displeasure with the executive order,” Kennedy told Schatz. “The president felt it was necessary for national security reasons.”
The health secretary said the idea for the executive order came from the Pentagon, and the administration regards the issue as one that Trump inherited—not created.
The overwhelming majority of American agriculture relies on glyphosate-based herbicides, and “100 percent of that is coming from China,” Kennedy said.
“You have an adversary that could literally shut down the American food supply overnight,” he testified. “[Trump’s] executive order does not increase the use of glyphosate. All it says is, as long as we’re dependent on it, we’re going to make it here.”
In Kennedy’s X post, he stated that cross-agency steps are being taken to shift away from harmful agricultural practices. The health secretary reaffirmed this goal to lawmakers at the April 21 hearing.
Monsanto has denied Roundup causes cancer and has argued no cancer warning is necessary because the Environmental Protection Agency has historically considered Roundup and glyphosate safe to use.
While mediators are pushing to get Iran and the US back into negotiations on Friday, the US still says it wants to see unified response from Iran which hands over its enriched uranium. But what will change between now and Friday? Two things, perhaps, and both pointing towards an expected escalation before any deal.
First, Axios quotes US officials that there is an unofficial 3-5 day window for Iran to get the correct unified proposal together before bombing restarts; the Israelis report Sunday is the real deadline.
Second, despite the ‘ceasefire’, there is lots of firing and no cessation in blockading in Hormuz and further afield. Within the Strait, Iran fired on ships and outright seized two, while there are suspicions it used speedboats to mine the key waterway more extensively. Outside Hormuz, CENTCOM denied reports that its blockade is leaking and intercepted three Iranian oil tankers near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, as US Senator Graham warned the Iran oil blockade “could become global soon.” Against that backdrop, the US Navy Secretary is leaving his post and Navy Undersecretary Hung Cao, a notably MAGA figure, will for now replace him.
In the broader Middle East, the US is now using Ukrainian counter-drone tech and support teams, underlining how rapidly things can change when tech and war get together. Certainties, production methods, and tactics and strategies can all flip faster than those at the top of large organisations realise.
Lebanon is said to be seeking a one-month truce extension of its current ceasefire with Israel as Hezbollah again targeted IDF troops with drones, drawing fire back, with casualties. The US embassy in Beirut is urging its citizens to leave the country amid security risks.
The US has suspended dollar shipments to Iraq and frozen security cooperation programs with its military to try to force Baghdad to act against Iranian militias active in the country. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent claims several Gulf and Asian allies, not just the UAE, have requested dollar swap lines. That’s further extends the list of potential recipients outside the cloistered ‘economic policy era’ circle of the UK, Europe, and Japan, etc., as part of a new US ‘economic statecraft era’ aimed at anchoring the global role of the US dollar on US, not global, terms. Indeed, while FX markets still look at EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY as benchmarks, they are arguably far less important in the emerging physical economy of a new world order based on resources, industrial production, and AI.
Finally, a Trump envoy is seeking to replace Iran with Italy in the looming 2026 FIFA World Cup, which isn’t likely to shift Tehran from its strategy of playing for extra time and winning on penalties.
The ‘Minecraft’ story above is crucial to note. The marine drones now being employed are relatively untested compared to older minesweeping techniques, but estimates using previous benchmarks run from weeks to months to clear Hormuz, depending on how many mines are present. That could add to an energy normalization timeline which already risks seeping into Q4. (See our latest analysis from Joe Delaura and Florence Schmit here, but note that it says in red, bold font: “Futures markets are still materially under-pricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.”)
The Iran war is also driving up Panama Canal lane prices to a record high of up to five times the pre-war level, mainly as Asian LNG importers bid for access.
Indeed, showing warcraft doesn’t only appear in the energy (then food) components of CPI, the World of Warcraft online platform just increased its UK 12-month subscription rate by 7%, its Georgian by 19.1%, its Kazakh by 37.5%, and made Turkish subscribers pay in euro. At the same time, the US monthly rate for an annual contract has remained unchanged at $12.99 since 2004. Ironically, that captures the Great Game being played out globally better than the market analysts uncomfortably talking about wars do.
EU-Turkey relations have separately nosedived following impolitic comments just before an EU summit today in… Cyprus. Its key itinerary covers plans for the energy crisis, “defensive autonomy”, and strategic links between Europe, the Middle East, and India.
Brussels reportedly has a plan for what it now (correctly) calls the “world’s biggest energy crisis”, but the focus is apparently on “coordination”: in doing what?
Cyprus wants an EU collective defense plan after being attacked by an Iranian drone. That’s defence autonomy; but it would imply the bloc getting dragged into a war it insists is not its. Then again, what use is collective defence if there is a ‘Yes, but not this war’ opt-out?
Re: strategic links, the key plan is the IMEC corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East (as Saudi Arabia talks of building a railway to Europe through Syria and Turkey). However, that involves not just ending the Iran war but defeating Tehran, which has blocked IMEC. Europe’s stand-off approach therefore gives it no voice on the emerging geopolitical architecture.
In terms of that defense autonomy, Trump is reportedly considering a tiered system for NATO to reward allies who rearm and are willing to fight, and punish those who don’t and won’t (and won’t allow the US to use the bases they have built on their territory). It might imply a shift of US forces, and focus, from west to east Europe, and perhaps from Spain to Morocco.
The USTR is also pushing allies to pay more for critical minerals to decouple from China’s monopoly, which, as long argued, will also require tariffs and subsidies. Obviously, that’s inflationary. Yet the only alternative is accepting Chinese dominance in the sector. Reportedly, many US allies seem to prefer that option… which points to a US trade split with those allies.
Meanwhile, the US is reportedly demanding concessions from Canada before USMCA trade talks start as a form of “entry fee.” These include opening dairy markets beyond USMCA commitments, eliminating the digital services tax that affects US tech giants, and accepting expanded US border enforcement jurisdiction on Canadian soil. Such US demands reduce the negotiation from one of equals to a realpolitik reflecting the economic weight each has, as well as treading on direct issues of sovereignty. Indeed, one wonders if/when the US will raise the issue of a common external tariff for the USMCA, de facto set by the US, which seems the logical economic statecraft move. For Canadians, this is all shocking and unprecedented.
Yet the same realpolitik and sovereignty dynamics were evident in UK–EU negotiations during Brexit and are again now as the UK flirts with a European realignment. Canada can reject these US demands or even risk walking away from the USMCA. As with the UK, it would then have to work out where it fits in globally instead. Ottawa is already looking for alternative options for the 75% of its goods that go to deeply integrated US supply chains. However, while the world likes its raw materials (if the infrastructure to deliver them can be built), industrial goods providing good jobs in Canada may prove a trickier question. Notably, US auto tariffs are already threatening the kind of downturn which that key Canadian industry last saw post-GFC. In short, the outcome of this US economic statecraft exercise remains unclear – but the potential economic impact is not.
Minecraft; Warcraft; Statecraft. You’ll notice I couldn’t craft any “rate cuts?” in either.
UBS Warns Drought Shock Unfolding Across Breadbasket Of America
It’s not just us sounding the alarm about severe drought conditions hitting America’s breadbasket as spring plantings ramp up, or warning about the second- and third-order effects that could push food prices higher later this year.
UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients on Thursday morning that drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in more than 130 years:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since records started in 1895, and March was the third driest month recorded, regardless of time of year, behind only the famed 1930s Dust Bowl”: July and August 1934. Water levels on the Mississippi look fine, the seasonal lows are typically in the fall, but river levels in Memphis sit 24 feet below this time last year.
The primary effect of drought conditions on farmland is a direct hit to production: reduced soil moisture, weaker germination, lower yields, poorer crop quality, reduced pasture and forage, and greater stress on the nation’s cattle herd (already seen with soaring beef prices).
USDA says drought can slash planted or harvested acreage, reduce livestock productivity, and raise feed and irrigation costs; it can also reduce crop yields and quality, with some perennial crops taking years to recover.
Then the third-order effects emerge: lower farm output and higher production costs (diesel and fertilizer), which can be transmitted through food supply chains into higher retail food prices, tighter supplies for processors, and pressure on food security.
Pingle continued:
Drought severity sees much of the country; April very warm The USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Report highlights the unusual warmth during the April employment report survey reference period, which should be on net supportive of the data this month, and potentially postpone pull forward from March until May or June. The pay period including the 12th of the month is the payroll survey point and the week including the 12th of the month is the survey reference for the household survey, where the unemployment rate is estimated. In figure 4 below we show the deviation from normal temperature, and the populated east saw very warm weather highs in Concordia, KS (91°F), and Lincoln, NE (90°F). Warmth covered much of the Midwest on April 14, when daily-record highs soared to 88°F in Des Moines, IA, and Cape Girardeau, MO. By mid-week, some of the earliest 90-degree heat on record affected the middle Atlantic States. With a high of 90°F on April 15, Georgetown, DE, set a record for its earliest-ever high of 90°F or greater (previously, 94°F on April 17, 2002). Wilmington, DE (90°F on April 15), experienced its second-earliest 90-degree reading, behind only April 10, 2013. Similarly, Atlantic City, NJ (90°F on April 15) tied 1967 for its second-earliest 90-degree temperature, behind April 7, 2010,” said the report.
“However, extremely dry conditions persisted Plains, with cascading impacts on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. Notably, jointing wheat in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska that has been greatly stressed by persistent dryness and periods of record-setting warmth experienced another setback at week’s end, when hard freezes occurred. Drought also continued to worsen in much of the South, particularly across the southern Atlantic States,” said the report.
Worth watching, the drought could lead to supply pressure and price pressure from the agricultural sector, on top of other pressures of concern at the moment. Last week, the USDA wrote in the Weekly Weather and Crop Report “Most immediately, portions of the South had little moisture for pastures, winter grains, and the germination and establishment of spring-sown crops. Despite patchy precipitation on the Plains, a significant portion of the winter wheat crop continued to exhibit drought stress, with the crop heading ahead of schedule as far north as Oklahoma. By April 12, roughly one-half of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas (54 percent), Oklahoma (48 percent), Nebraska (47 percent), and Colorado (44 percent).”
US Business Confidence Soared In April Amid “Panic, Emergency” Buying Ahead Of Price Spike
Despite the recent slide in ‘hard’ macro data, analysts expected an incremental improvement in the preliminary April S&P Global PMI data this morning.
Consensus was right as both Services and Manufacturing surveys signaled an uptick in April
US business activity growth recovered slightly in April having slowed to near-stagnation in March following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the overall pace of expansion remained subdued, most notably in the services economy where demand faltered.
Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.3 (March: 49.8). 2-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 (March: 52.3). 47-month high.
“…over the past three months we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024 with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame.”
The April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with the vast service sector acting as the principal drag.
“Orders for services ranging from travel and tourism to financial products barely rose as the war caused hesitancy for spending among both household and business customers, with surging prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs acting as a further deterrent.”
There was better news from manufacturing:
“here an expansion of output and orders could be partly traced to the building of safety stocks, with survey respondents reporting “panic” and “emergency” buying ahead of price hikes and supply shortages in echoes of the problems seen during the pandemic.
While there is no prices paid (nor other subcomponents) released in the flash PMI, the market is looking for signs of inflation and margin pressures in the press release.
Prices paid have already picked up in the March ISM, although less so far in the PMI surveys.
And, as Williamson notes, not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services.
“The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years.”
Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma.
However, as Williamson concludes, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.
Trump Orders Navy ‘Shoot & Kill’ Iranian Boats, Says ‘Doesn’t Need A Deal’ As US Intercepts Tankers From Hormuz To Indian Ocean
Summary
Iranian sources to Chinese state media says ‘breakthrough’ toward restarting US talks again could come ‘tonight or tomorrow’.
Trump orders US Navy ‘shoot & kill’ small Iranian boats amid concern over mines in Hormuz. Says US now “doesn’t need a deal”.
Overnight, US military intercepted two more Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade And in Indian Ocean US conducted a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran.
Media sources confirm based on prior Trump post that US has extended the ceasefire indefinitely until ‘unified proposal’ can be brought forward by Tehran.
Iran announces first Hormuz tolls paid to the country’s central bank.
Iran Confirms First Hormuz Toll Payments to Central Bank
On Thursday Iran publicly announced for the first time that initial toll payments have been successfully transferred to the state-operated Central Bank of Iran (CBI):
The Iranian authorities have received revenue from tolls for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, Parliament Deputy Speaker Hamid Reza Hajibabai said.
“The first revenue received from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the Central Bank’s account,” the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.
A specific monetary amount was not given – but it can go up to $2 million per tanker, officials have indicated. This week has seen reports that several Iranian tankers, with transponders off, have made it past the US Navy’s blockade – which the Pentagon has denied.
Latest From Trump: ‘Doesn’t Need a Deal’
Talks have stalled, and don’t appear to be any closer – despite some optimistic Thursday early headlines – as the two sides are as far away as ever on the nuclear issue. This is perhaps why Trump has agreed the US ‘doesn’t need a deal’ to get what it wants from Iran. The president shared a Washington Post article wherein the author argues that Iran is running out of [oil] storage, money, and time.
The below fresh Truth Social commentary also generally reflects recent reporting and the outlook of WaPo’s Marc Thiessen, of Iraq War infamy as a former longtime speechwriter for Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush:
It should be noted that this is some of Marc Thiessen’s prior content and ‘reporting’. He’s the most hawkish of all the hawkish pundits, lately also appearing on Mark Levin. And…
Mark Thiessen, in Mark Levin interview Trump urged all his followers to watch, makes the case for troops on the ground in Iran: “We have to get what Donald Trump correctly calls ‘the nuclear dust.'”
Despite a ceasefire still technically being on, President Trump has just ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any small Iranian boat which poses a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, especially ones “putting mines in the waters” of the strait. This risks rapid escalation already amid tit-for-tat tanker seizures, and it means a shooting war could soon open up in the contested vital waterway.
Oil, and markets reacted immediately on the escalatory order from Washington:
Status of Stalled Pakistan Negotiations: ‘Breakthrough’ Soon?
US hours began with a somewhat optimistic headline, picked up by Reuters, which was strangely enough first issued by Chinese media. Iranian sources said preparations for Iran-US negotiations could produce a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow,” according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. However, this supposed ‘breakthrough’ speaks to merely getting to the table, which last weekend the sides failed to do in what was the planned, but canceled, second round.
Meanwhile a reported Pakistani proposal calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions on Iran.
Pakistani officials blamed the US blockade, not internal divisions in Iran, for the stalled talks, while President Trump apparently having extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing what he described as “fractured” leadership in Tehran.
Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. From a Tuesday Truth Social Post: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”
Another US Boarding… in Indian Ocean
US forces conducted “a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean” overnight, the US Department of Defense said on X.
The statement said the vessel was operating within the area of responsibility of United States Indo-Pacific Command. “We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” it said. “International waters cannot be used as a shield by sanctioned actors. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”
The interdiction video put out by US Central Command:
Overnight, U.S. forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean within the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.
The Hormuz chokepoint standoff between Tehran and the US military has become the center of the nearly two-month conflict. This standoff marks the next phase following an extended ceasefire with Iran after a second round of peace talks was canceled in Pakistan earlier this week.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is allowing Iran more time to respond to US demands, but expects Tehran to present a “unified proposal.”
“So, again, the president’s offering them a little bit of flexibility because we want to see a unified proposal to the president’s very strong proposal. And he’s made his red lines very clear,” Leavitt said.
Iran has stated that it will not resume negotiations with US officials while a US naval blockade on its ports remains in place, and the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade.
In response to Trump’s ceasefire extension, Iran’s state TV cited the foreign ministry as saying it is monitoring developments and that the armed forces are ready for any threat.
With Hormuz effectively shut this week, roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows remain highly disrupted as the energy shock ripples from the Middle East to Asia, Africa, Europe, and finally the West Coast of the US.
A new Department of War assessment cited by The Washington Post said it would take US forces six months to clear the maritime chokepoint of mines deployed by Iranian naval forces.
Other overnight news includes Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announcing that Secretary John C. Phelan will be stepping down. “On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” Parnell said in a statement. “We wish him well in his future endeavors.”
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Ceasefire Extension
US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry
Iran has said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its port remains in place
Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad for peace talks, but Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently
Hormuz
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and another ship identified as ‘Epaminondes’ on Wednesday
Iran has collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker
Blockade
The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers Hedy and Hero II that tried to evade its blockade earlier this week
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers sailed past a US blockade this week, ferrying roughly 9 million barrels of oil to market
Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while two of its own oil supertankers tested the US blockade
Market Impacts
Energy prices are rising again due to the impasse and worsening tension over the Strait of Hormuz
Emirates is operating at 65% of capacity with about 13% of airports in its network still cut off
Honeywell’s outlook assumes the conflict will last through the second quarter and decrease revenue by about $100 million to $150 million
Sweden may need to restrict energy use if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, with the government examining potential limits on fuel use
Chart of the Day (via UBS)
Commentary on energy markets from UBS analyst Catherine Gordon:
The UBS oil & gas team continues to argue the scale of disruption is underpriced in both oil and equities: the UBS base case had de-escalation in early April and gradual resumption of flows over 2Q26, keeping Brent at $100/bbl in 2Q26 and in the low to mid-$80s in 2H26, but this path requires actual improvements in flows very soon, rather than only a ceasefire.
Absent progress toward normalizing energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz within the next week or two, UBS warns the market risks a significant spike in oil and LNG prices, with longer disruption into May breaching recent highs of ~$120/bbl for front month and ~$150/bbl for Dated Brent.
Energy‑dedicated investors continue to focus on barrels versus rhetoric: each day of stalemate implies a forfeiture of roughly 12–15mb/d of production. The market is now moving into an energy “air pocket,” which should drive a convergence between dated and forward oil prices, or between divergent price expectations in the physical and paper energy markets.
From a trading perspective, broader equities have remained resilient on “de‑escalation” headlines, but the setup still feels very fragile, with technicals having done much of the work (CTAs slowing), positioning has caught up, and index‑level valuations are pricing in relatively little disruption.
Brent crude futures are trading at $103 a barrel.
*This is the running blog of the US-Iran conflict for Thursday.
