Chinese e-commerce platforms are selling miniature heads that, according to Fred Lambert at the EV blog Electrek, are being used to “trick Tesla’s cabin camera into thinking a driver is paying attention.”

Priced at $20 to $50 and marketed as dashboard decorations or “travel companions,” these miniature heads are mounted near the rearview mirror to mimic a human face while Autopilot or Full Self-Driving is engaged.

via Instagram user “decentmiss_” … 

While FSD is engaged, Tesla’s cabin camera monitors driver attentiveness, including whether the driver repeatedly looks away from the road, and issues warnings when attention appears to lapse. Tesla requires increased supervision when FSD is in “Mad Max” or “Hurry” mode.

Videos of the miniature heads recently went viral on social media, suggesting that some users in China are employing them to trick Tesla’s driver-attention safeguards.

😈🔥The Chinese have already found a hack for the driver-monitoring cameras inside the cars. 💀😂 pic.twitter.com/owW95q0ERp

— Alladdin (@Alladdin1983) July 11, 2026

Here is Lambert’s first take:

Let me be direct: anyone mounting a fake head to defeat their Tesla’s driver monitoring system is putting their life and the lives of everyone around them at risk. And the sellers profiting from these devices are enabling potentially fatal behavior for $30 a pop.

Over the years, drivers have used various defeat devices, such as counterweights attached to the steering wheel to trick the torque sensor into believing someone was holding it. Tesla countered that workaround with the cabin camera, but now must address the issue of miniature heads.

Related:

• Is Tesla About To Use Facial Recognition Before Activating Full Self-Driving

Tesla’s fastest countermeasure would likely be an over-the-air software update that uses facial recognition of the driver.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Inflection Point Overload? 

Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use.

In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet). 

We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing). 

While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks. 

Possible Inflection Points 

AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well. 

• Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA). 

Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time? 

Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade. 

Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on. 

Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex. 

There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows. 

Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But: 

• Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down. 
• While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected. 

For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do. 

Bottom Line 

While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season. 

Holtec announced last week that the major refurbishment projects at Palisades are complete.

Reactor vessel inspections, head penetration replacements, steam generator tube refurbishment, primary system decontamination, and operator training all wrapped up. New fuel now sits on site, ready for loading. The company called it a “watershed moment” and shifted focus to grinding through the remaining work.

Yet there is still no restart date…

     “Holtec International remains on track to restart operations at Palisades in October 2025”

These are the comments provided by a Utility Dive article in 2025 after they spoke with Holtec’s International Director of Government Affairs and Communications Patrick O’Brien.

Needless to say, that date has passed. Starting earlier this year, the company pivoted to the vaguer line that Palisades would restart “when the plant is ready for long-term operations.” CEO Kris Singh told the Financial Times he still expects the plant back this year, ahead of the March 2027 power supply contract. But “this year” is now half over with no firm schedule attached.

When the $1.5 billion DOE loan closed in 2024, expectations centered on a late 2025 restart. As the first deadline came to pass near the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, material issues, particularly with steam generators, had pushed the target into the middle of 2026. 

Each update added a few more months. Now the language has softened further into “steady progress” and “when ready.” More than 5,000 individual work activities remain on the checklist. Most are described as routine maintenance, testing, inspection, and operational readiness items. 

The legal and financial pieces have at least moved forward. A federal court dismissed the environmental groups’ lawsuit challenging the NRC exemption that allows a decommissioned plant to restart. 

Holtec is also preparing an IPO that multiple outlets peg at a roughly $10 billion valuation.

Palisades was always presented as the easiest restart project on the table. An existing plant on an existing site, with a recently operating license framework, the first major DOE loan guarantee, and novel NRC regulatory pathways created specifically to enable it. If any restart should have translated funding, approvals, and major refurbishment work into electrons on the grid without prolonged slippage, this was the one. 

The repeated movement of internal targets and the current shift to “when the plant is ready for long-term operations” instead makes reactor restarts look more uncertain and execution-heavy than simply licensing and building a new plant from scratch. That undercuts the core industry argument that restarts represent the lowest-risk, fastest path to new nuclear capacity.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument.

That’s exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company’s evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right?

The result wasn’t a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today’s euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset.

Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility.

My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why “Bitcoin Yield,” once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management.

Larry’s response was that I’m confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market’s tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company’s new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable.

His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn’t support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown.

I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market’s biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller.

Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn’t, they become increasingly important.

Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has.

One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy.

The biggest takeaway wasn’t who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn’t automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn’t the same as predicting disaster.

Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market’s best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That’s exactly what made the conversation worth having.

Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself.

(WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE). 

—

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Did the Israelis do it?  Did the US government?  Did Charlie Kirk’s wife plan it?  Did Trump have Charlie killed?  Nope. It turns out that all the theories raging online about the “real” assassins behind the Charlie Kirk murder were complete bunk – A distraction away from the obvious suspect and the leftist movement that inspired him.     

Anyone waiting for concrete evidence to be produced before forming conclusions on the Tyler Robinson case was richly rewarded in the past week, because the preliminary court hearing did not disappoint. 

The prosecution produced a substantial evidence trial implicating Robinson in the killing, including testimony from his trans lover and roommate, Lance Twiggs (aka “Luna”).  Twiggs recounted Robinson’s confession that he did, in fact, shoot Charlie Kirk, and he identified Robinson in multiple surveillance videos showing Robinson scouting the UVU campus in Orem, Utah.  

🚨 WATCH: FULL video of Lance Twiggs’ DAMNING testimony about accused Charlie Kirk kiIIer Tyler Robinson

It’s pretty clear why the defense worked SO hard to hide this

KEY MOMENTS:

01:08 – Placed under OATH, agreeing to give testimony under penalty of perjury
01:58 -… pic.twitter.com/tUubdhC1yD

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 9, 2026

Not surprisingly, Robinson’s defense team tried unsuccessfully to block the release of this testimony to the media and the public.  The Twiggs interview confirms statements made in the original arrest report, which included the fact that Robinson confessed to his own family members that he committed the crime.  It’s the reason they arranged for Tyler to turn himself in to law enforcement.    

This arrest report was made available to the public not long after Kirk’s assassination.  Yet, Robinson’s confession to his family was ignored and conspiracy theories persisted.  Unless everyone involved is “in on the conspiracy”, including Robinson trans lover and his own family, then there is no viable defense.  Robinson’s defense team’s only recourse has been to block as much evidence as possible from being seen by the public. 

This includes never before released high definition footage which media witnesses in the courtroom describe as detailed images of a man identified by investigators (and witnesses viewing the footage) as Tyler Robinson climbing to the roof, going prone with a rifle, and “jolting” (as if absorbing the recoil of a rifle shot). 

Just witnessed something at the Charlie Kirk assassination pre-trial in Utah that has NOT been made public yet and you need to hear about it…

Erika Kirk asked for us to be here today. We sat inside the small courthouse in Provo with the family. The Judge told the media to turn… pic.twitter.com/vDFCnY53ah

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 10, 2026

He then runs across the roof and jumps off the edge with an item wrapped in a towel.  Robinson’s defense team presented no alibi for his whereabouts during this time, which means he doesn’t have one. 

Oh, what’s this?

The prosecutors in Charlie Kirk’s murder trial telling the Judge they have video of Tyler Robinson taking the shot:

“Tyler makes his way to the sniper’s perch. Takes the shot. Then runs, drops off the building. All captured on video.”
👀 pic.twitter.com/89YNx9WtxN

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 11, 2026

Though this video will not be released to the public (yet) on the request of the defense team, it corroborates already available footage of a man identified as Tyler Robinson leaving a vehicle (a gray Dodge Charger) registered to him, walking across the campus and entering the building stairwell with a limp just before the shooting. 

New video shows what a law enforcement officer identified as Tyler Robinson walking with a limp on the UVU campus shortly before Charlie Kirk’s murder. It’s been suggested that it may have been due to a concealed gun or gun part. pic.twitter.com/4tR7LNjx5H

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 7, 2026

Beyond the video footage, DNA evidence from the rifle and the towel it was wrapped in was identified as belonging to Tyler Robinson and Lance Twiggs.  Twiggs testified that Robinson had also asked him about the use of a Dremel tool to etch “messages on bullets”.  The rifle rounds recovered from the Kirk shooting was etched with Antifa related phrases including ““Hey fascist! Catch!” and “Oh Bella, ciao, bella, ciao Bella ciao ciao ciao” (From an Antifa rally song). 

Robinson’s family and Lance Twiggs noted in the arrest report and interviews than Robinson had expressed political anger against Charlie Kirk and Donald Trump leading up to the shooting.  Robinson was, without a doubt, motivated by left-wing politics, which undermines the false narrative promoted by media pundits and celebrities like Jimmy Kimmel that Robinson is conservative. 

Soft point .30 cal bullet fragments were recovered from Charlie Kirk’s body and shown in the hearing.  And though identifying tool marks were destroyed by the impact and fragmentation, the bullet caliber matches the rifle that was recovered (with Robinson’s DNA all over it).  

The evidence is so overwhelming that many commentators expect Robinson to change his plea to guilty.  This would likely save his parents from being put on the stand and going through the pain of testifying against their own son (which they’re going to do if the case goes to jury trial).  The presiding judge (Judge Tony Graf) has until September to decide if the case will go forward.  The extended wait time may be designed to give Robinson an opportunity to change his plea in order to avoid the death penalty.  

Everyone Robinson knows is confirming his guilt, because he confessed to them that he did it.  

It is unfortunate that Charlie Kirk’s wife and family have been made to suffer through the indignity of unfounded theories while waiting so many months for this evidence to be released.  It’s greatly distressing that the woke left also continues to engage in political violence and assassination attempts, emboldened by Robinson’s success. 

It should not surprise anyone that the person most likely to have killed Charlie Kirk is a leftist.  Leftists have been enacting organized violence for years now.  The real conspiracy is that conservative groups were tricked into infighting about who did it when the answer was obvious.  

Authored by The Federalist Papers Project (@TheFederalist1) via X,

Ayn Rand was right when she wrote these words, and she is still right now.

“Fascism, Nazism, Communism and Socialism are only superficial variations of the same monstrous theme: collectivism.”

That is the part too many people refuse to understand.

These systems may use different slogans.

They may wave different flags. They may promise different futures.

One may speak in the language of nationalism, another in the language of equality, another in the language of compassion, another in the language of revolution.

But underneath the branding, the heart of the thing is the same.

The individual is pushed aside. The family is weakened. Faith is mocked or controlled.

Property becomes conditional. Speech becomes dangerous. And the State becomes the final authority over your life.

That is collectivism.

It always starts with beautiful promises. Free this, fair that, justice for all, power to the people. But somehow, every time, the people end up with less power and the rulers end up with more.

Why anyone would want this in America is beyond my understanding.

The only explanation that makes sense is that generations have been trained not to recognize the pattern. They were taught to hate capitalism, distrust liberty, and look to government as the answer to every problem. That did not happen by accident.

A free people cannot stay free if they forget what freedom is.

That is why this warning matters.

Rand was not saying these systems are identical in every historical detail. She was saying they all lead back to the same ugly principle, the group over the person, the State over the citizen, the collective over the individual soul.

Different heads.

Same beast.

And once that beast gets inside a nation, it does not leave quietly.

Update 1210ET. 

* * *

Update 10:40pm ET.

Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war – Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media:

IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV

Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran – now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) – could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this). 

What’s clear is that things are back to square one – with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder.

Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan

Reports of 3 impacts.

The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote…

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors “The Escalation Trap,” has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah’s funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

“The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend,” Pape said. “The balance of political will shifted.“

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: “The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation.” 

*  *  *

Update 8:40pm ET.

At 7:15pm ET, the US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week after Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice”, and Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after the latest Iranian attack on the Hormuz-crossing vessel. Central Command said a civilian crew member is missing and the ship was unable to continue its journey after suffering significant damage.

At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026

Shortly after the Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: The IRNA news agency says more than 10 explosions have been heard in the port city of Jask in the southern Hormozgan province.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/sfnZg9WSSH pic.twitter.com/FAzm8nC9ou

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 12, 2026

According to unconfirmed reports, the US strikes on Iran have reached all the way north to the Capital of Iran, Tehran as the US goes “full scale from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.”

CBS Reports the Strikes on Iran have reached the Capital of Iran, Tehran

The U.S. is going FULL SCALE from the bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran’s air force is in the air and air defenses are active over TEHRAN pic.twitter.com/S0c6DWz9dE

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

“Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.”

Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay. https://t.co/8m4fEfgrXv

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) July 11, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Hormuz closure, saying it won’t allow any vessels to pass through until foreign interference ends, according to state-run IRIB News. The IRGC said it halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite being told not to, the outlet added.

The developments cast significant doubts over the potential for talks aimed at trying to reach a more lasting peace deal. The rhetoric had been getting more heated on both sides in recent days even as the two parties had suggested there was still room for conversations. 

Reports from Iran of heavy new U.S. airstrikes in a Bandar Abbas, Bushehr nuclear facility, Minab, Qeshm, and several other locations pic.twitter.com/k2zK9N5pOm

— Emily Schrader – אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) July 11, 2026

Earlier on Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the future of Hormuz, but there was no sign of involvement by senior US envoys. Also Earlier, Iran demanded that the US implement key commitments under a recent deal before more talks take place, rejecting Trump’s contention that negotiations could continue without a ceasefire. Tehran said Washington must meet Iran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports.

On Friday Trump threatened to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!”

The US had also demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran would face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters. Those demands followed several days of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week. 

The Islamic Republic is holding a three-day memorial ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a days-long funeral that drew large crowds to cities in Iran and neighboring Iraq. Khamenei was killed in an attack as the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February.

His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday called for revenge for the killing of his father.

“It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said in a post on X.

Earlier

Iran has thrown Trump’s ultimatum and Saturday deadline right back at Washington, saying that instead it is the United States that must first meet the agreed-upon conditions in order to normalize shipping and energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars news agency reports Saturday that Iranian leadership is demanding that the US implement “agreed-upon understandings” before any talks take place. While the White House has declared the ceasefire to be ‘over’ – it has also indicated ongoing contacts and talks with Iran via mediators. But this appears to have been reduced to simple ultimatums being shuttled between capitals by Qatari mediators. There are no actual sit-down talks on the horizon after two rounds of fresh tit-for-tat attacks broke out this past week.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) itself is barely alive at this point, also with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, separately announcing that Tehran could stop honoring the MoU if US attacks continue. 

“Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfil its obligations under the MoU,” Iravani told reporters at UN headquarters.

But he did make clear that Iran is still committed to the agreement “provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations.”

President Trump has meanwhile continued to issue his own warnings and threats. He said Friday that the US military would “completely decimate” Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out his assassination. He took it a step further in an overnight Truth Social Post, saying he has 1,000 missiles “locked and loaded” – aimed at Iran – should he be targeted by Tehran’s agents.

Strangely, the US President signed off with his puzzling “praise be to Allah!” reference – perhaps mockingly or sarcastically.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still hasn’t been seen in public after the Feb.28 US-Israeli airstrikes took out his father, killed members of his family, and reportedly badly wounded him. Mojtaba is said to be observing a private memorial for his slain father, and made no known appearance at the week-long funeral processions and burial.

But on Saturday he did call for revenge in a rare public message. “It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said.

“We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers,” the Ayatollah also stated. “This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done.”

He issued a series of statements tinged with Shia Islamic references. His words contain repeat vows to enacting vengeance, including this not so veiled threat to kill Iran’s enemies: 

The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave.

— Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) July 11, 2026

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors “The Escalation Trap,” has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah’s funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

“The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend,” Pape said. “The balance of political will shifted.“

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: “The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation.” 

Should foreign governments be allowed to support or fund lawsuits against the US government over its immigration and enforcement policies?  US sovereign immunity aside, the very idea of foreigners trying to influence American immigration law through indirect civil suits sounds insane.  Why, oh why, should Americans care what Mexico thinks?

To put the issue in context, it’s important to understand that the Mexican government has been actively encouraging and enabling mass illegal immigration into the US for decades.  This strategy accomplishes a few things simultaneously:

First, the southern border acts as a steam valve for poverty stricken malcontents and criminals.  Mexican leaders like to have the option of leaving the door open to citizens crossing illegally into the US en masse because this means less mouths to feed, less strain on social services and less crime for Mexico. 

Second, the Mexican economy relies heavily on foreign remittances.  Illegals from Mexico enter the US, work under the table, then wire around $64 billion back home every year.  Mexico’s annual federal welfare programs cost only $57 billion per year.  In other words, remittances from migrants in the US are bigger than Mexico’s entire welfare budget.

It has become increasingly clear since Donald Trump took office in 2025 that far too many third-world countries are using the US as a cash cow for their own national economies.  And, they have been doing this primarily through illegal immigration, or, work visa and refugee loopholes.  Without Trump’s migrant crackdown, this problem may have never been exposed to the wider public. 

Third, mass immigration acts as a destabilizing element in US politics and economics.  There are many socialist elements within Mexico, not to mention Central and South America, who would like to quietly sabotage the US to make way for “La Raza” – An ideological movement of Hispanic activists that wants to invade and reconquer North America. 

They aren’t satisfied with simply bleeding the US for a trickle of wealth.  Rather, like any group of barbarians at the gate, they want to pillage the entire country because they live under the delusion that they’re “owed” something.  This agenda, of course, relies heavily on progressive politicians staying in power in the US, which is not currently the case. 

Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that her government plans to file criminal complaints in the U.S. regarding ​Mexican citizens who have died in immigration custody or while being targeted in anti-immigration ‌operations. The goal is to escalate these complaints while supporting civil suits. Fourteen Mexican nationals have died while in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and three more died in arrest operations conducted by the agency, the Mexican government said.

The latest incident in Houston involved an arrest which was disrupted by a Mexican migrant who was not the original target of the operation.  Agents report that the man tried to ram them with his van while they were looking for a different suspect.    

Lorenzo Araujo, a Mexican immigrant who had lived in the United States without authorization for 35 years, was on his way to work with three other men.  When agents tried to stop the vehicle, the encounter quickly escalated when he allegedly tried to run them over.  An agent shot Mr. Araujo in the abdomen. He died at a hospital hours later.  Suspects generally only end up dead when they present a physical threat to ICE agents.   

Mexico’s president intends to exploit these events as a way to rally lawfare operations.  She seems to believe that she can leverage against deportation policies by burying the Trump Administration in litigation.  She’s not alone.  Democrats are also using similar tactics while ignoring the circumstances of the shootings and the self defense of immigration agents. 

Democrat Rep. Al Green says Americans are obligated to give illegal aliens protection under the Constitution: “Mr. Arajo belongs to us! He should not receive any less attention from the Constitution that I or any of you would receive!” pic.twitter.com/3rW5DFgQoA

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 10, 2026

When it comes to deportations, illegal immigrants do not have the same constitutional protections as American citizens.  Due process for migrants only involves identifying them as legal or illegal.  If they are illegal, then they can and should be kicked out of the country with haste.  No trial.  No jury.  No wasted time or wasted taxpayer money.

It makes no sense that Democrats under the Biden Administration can open the borders to millions of illegals without any legal checks and balances, then they demand that the Trump Administration pursue years of court cases to remove just a handful.

Meanwhile, it’s obvious that Mexico’s government has every reason to subvert the deportation process.  By labeling it a “human rights violation” and creating a legal fog, the Mexicans, like the Democrats, are hoping they can stall the accelerating deportations so that their economy can continue to benefit from the parasitic relationship they have with the US. 

Mexico’s only goal is to create as many obstacles as possible with the expectation that Democrats will eventually return to power and open the floodgates once again.  

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“Witness list expanding in multi-conspiracy probe out of Fort Pierce. . . .”

– Paul Sperry, Real Clear investigations.

The scene: February of 2027, a federal courtroom in Fort Pierce (St. Lucie County), Florida, the third day of trial in the RussiaGate matter.

Defendants seated on the right (from the judge’s vantage) are so numerous they require two tables, including John Brennan, James Comey, James Clapper, Andrew McCabe, Rod Rosenstein, Strzok & Page, Bruce Ohr, Lisa Monaco, Mary McCord, Christopher Wray, Marc Elias, and seven other former federal officials.

Former President Barack Obama and former Sec’y of State Hillary Clinton, named as “unindicted co-conspirators,” are not present in the courtroom for the sake of decorum. Former MI6 agent, the slippery Christopher Steele, purveyor of the infamous “dossier,” is on-the-lam, whereabouts unknown. The charges against the bunch are Seditious Conspiracy (18 U.S. Code § 2384), Conspiracy to Obstruct Justice (18 U.S.C. §§ 1503, 1512, 1519), Conspiracy Against Rights / Deprivation of Rights Under Color of Law (18 U.S.C. §§ 241, 242), Perjury (18 U.S.C. § 1621), Concealment (18 U.S.C. § 1001).

At 10:00 a.m., a “surprise” witness is ushered into the room…

Gasps erupt from all angles.

The witness is immediately identified by his snow-white hair and beard. Everybody sees it is Julian Assange. He is a surprise witness for security reasons. He has been flown from Sydney to New Delhi to Frankfurt, and finally to Miami in a US government airplane, the lone passenger.

Recall: in June 2024, Assange reached a plea deal with the US DOJ: guilty on one count of conspiring to obtain and disclose classified US national defense information. He was sentenced to sixty-two months (time served), crediting the approximately five years he had already spent in Britain’s Belmarsh prison while fighting extradition — but not counting the six years and ten months he was holed-up before that in the Ecuadorian embassy in London. There was no additional jail time, supervision, or financial penalty.

Assange is sworn and seated, led through preliminary questions as to his identity, place of residence, his former occupation running the news service known as Wikileaks, blah blah. The prosecuting federal attorney will now turn to the subject of one Seth Rich — remember him? The twenty-seven-year-old was working for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2016 as Voter Expansion Data Director. At 4:00 a.m. July 10, 2016, Rich was found dead, shot twice in the back, on Flagler Place NW, in the Bloomingdale neighborhood of Washington, D.C., in what police called “a botched robbery.”

Rather bizarrely from a police procedural standpoint, Rich’s wallet, stuffed with money, his watch, and his cell phone remained on his person. Only his laptop was taken in the “robbery.” It has been a “cold,” unsolved case all these years.

Sometime before the murder, as early as Spring 2016, well before the Democratic party’s nominating convention, Assange’s Wikileaks received a large packet of information containing as many as 58,000 emails hacked out of the account of John Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman. The emails detailed many curious machinations inside the DNC that year, including sketchy efforts underway to derail Clinton’s rival, Bernie Sanders, excerpts from Clinton’s paid private Wall Street speeches (e.g., to Goldman Sachs), references to Clinton’s health problems, her private email server issue, various Clinton foundation dealings, and a lot of strange chatter about “pizza” and other mundane food items that would eventually spawn the “PizzaGate” story alluding to alleged child sex cult activities centered around John Podesta and his brother Tony.

It was quite a juicy load. But Wikileaks sat on it until just before the election. That spring and summer, Hillary was already laboring under the scandal about the private email server she had set up in her suburban Chappaqua, NY, home. She had apparently used it casually when she ran the State Department to conduct official government business, including classified information, instead of her official government email address. That itself was against the law, apart from what else the content of the Podesta email trove revealed. The FBI had been working the server case that spring, and just weeks before the convention, FBI Director Jim Comey made a big public show of exonerating Hillary, declaring incorrectly that he declined to prosecute — since it is not the FBI’s job to prosecute, only investigate, and for the DOJ to actually decide whether to prosecute. But he did add for the record that her doings had been “extremely careless.”

Anyway, Comey’s blunder became a low-grade scandal unto itself, colored by the suspicious meeting a month earlier between Bill Clinton and then Attorney General Loretta Lynch in her official airplane parked on the tarmac of the Phoenix airport. Both claimed they just talked about their grandchildren. Hence, Comey letting Hillary off the hook in July had the odor of a set-up. She was duly nominated July 26, 2016.

In October, 2016, Wikileaks began dribbling out the hacked Podesta emails they had obtained earlier that year, just in time for the election. To complicate things, the FBI and the New York City police were just then investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner, husband of Clinton’s closest aide Huma Abedin, for sending sexually explicit messages to a minor. In the course of things, they obtained Weiner’s laptop, which was stuffed with 140,000 additional emails between Ms. Abedin and Hillary. Yikes!

On October 28, 2016 (eleven days before the election), Comey sent a letter to Congress notifying them that the FBI was reviewing these newly discovered emails to determine if they contained classified information (they did), in effect re-opening Hillary’s private server case. Comey later testified he felt obligated to inform Congress to avoid accusations of a cover-up close to the election. He called it a “no-win situation.” On November 6, 2016 (two days before Election Day), Comey announced the review found no new evidence warranting charges, reaffirming the July conclusion.

All of this intrigue revolved around the question of who, exactly, hacked those DNC emails. In June 2016, a cyber-security outfit called CrowdStrike, run by former FBI agent Shawn Henry, identified two Russian intelligence-linked groups — Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear — as responsible for the DNC hack. By that time, the Steele Dossier was already circulating between the CIA, the FBI, and the White House. The Russia collusion story (the RussiaGate hoax) was busy being born. Russia Russia Russia !!! It was all the people of the USA heard the whole four years of the first Trump term.

Which brings us forward to the courtroom scene, February, 2027, Julian Assange in the witness chair. The young lead federal prosecutor (one of several) in the room, finishes his preliminary questions and asks Assange: “Are you willing to tell the court now, who exactly was your source for the DNC emails?” Assange has kept it secret for all these years. But he had been very badly abused by some of the very US government officials who are sitting at the two defendant’s tables, and he is rather sore about all the years he had to hide out in the Ecuadorean embassy in London before the Americans induced the British authorities to stuff him in Belmarsh prison for another five.

“Yes,” he says placidly.

“It was a young man named Seth Rich. He copied it onto a thumb-drive directly from the DNC.”

And that is how all the bullshit about RussiaGate finally dissolves into a rancid cloud of sedition for the folks slumped in their seats on the defendants’ side of the courtroom.

Shout out to the valiant podcaster Mel K for pointing us in the right direction on this one.