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Trump Says He’ll Impose 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum On Monday

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Trump Says He’ll Impose 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum On Monday

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he will announce on Monday new 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, the Epoch Times reported.

“Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25 percent tariff,” he told reporters Sunday on Air Force One as he flew from Florida to New Orleans to attend the Super Bowl. When asked about aluminum, he told reporters, “aluminum, too” will be subject to the trade penalties.

Trump on Sunday offered no details about the aluminum or steel tariffs. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that the new tariffs would come on top of the existing duties on steel and aluminum.

Trump also told reporters that he would soon announce “reciprocal tariffs” on Tuesday or Wednesday, meaning that the United States could impose duties on products from countries that have placed tariffs on U.S. goods.

“If they are charging us 130 percent and we’re charging them nothing, it’s not going to stay that way,” he told reporters.

Steel and aluminum were among Trump’s earliest tariffs during his first term, implementing a 25% duty on steel and a 10% duty on aluminum  in 2018 on grounds of national security.The steel tariffs also come amid a stalled deal by Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. to buy US Steel Corp. for $14.1 billion. The transaction was blocked by former President Joe Biden and is also opposed by Trump.

Last week, Trump elaborated on the reciprocal tariffs during comments at the White House alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

“Where a country … charges us so much, and we do the same,” he said. “I think that’s the only fair way to do it. That way, nobody’s hurt.”

Trump also said that Nippon Steel is now considering investing in US Steel instead of purchasing the company outright. Trump told reporters on Sunday that Nippon Steel cannot have a majority stake in the US firm.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the European Union levies as much as 50 percent tariffs on motorcycles and 10 percent on automobiles, while India places 60 percent duties on U.S. cars and hefty tariffs on agricultural products.

During the campaign, Trump often said that he would place tariffs on a variety of goods and countries, sometimes even suggesting that the United States could abolish the income tax in favor of tariffs.

Earlier this month, he warned that he would place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, if those countries do not curb illegal immigration or fentanyl production and trafficking into the country. Ultimately, he pushed back the Canada and Mexico tariffs by a month after leaders of the two countries agreed to strengthen their border security.

“The orders make clear that the flow of contraband drugs like fentanyl to the United States, through illicit distribution networks, has created a national emergency, including a public health crisis,” Trump said in a statement before he agreed to not immediately issue those duties against Canada and Mexico. “Chinese officials have failed to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations.”

Both Mexico and Canada said they would send thousands of troops to their respective borders with the United States to stanch the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl trafficking. The 10 percent tariff on China took effect on Feb. 4.

Continue reading at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 19:21

NIH Slashes Indirect Costs, Says Move Will Save Billions Per Year

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NIH Slashes Indirect Costs, Says Move Will Save Billions Per Year

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The National Institute of Health (NIH) on Feb. 7 decreased the maximum indirect cost rate research institutions can charge the government to 15 percent. Indirect costs include utilities, facility, and personnel, and service contracts.

NIH predicts the change will save more than $4 billion a year.

In 2024, $9 billion of the $35 billion granted for research “was used for administrative overhead, what is known as ‘indirect costs,’” the agency said in a post on social media platform X on Friday.

“The average indirect cost rate reported by NIH has averaged between 27 percent and 28 percent over time. And many organizations are much higher—charging indirect rates of over 50 percent and in some cases over 60 percent,” the NIH said in its announcement.

The White House said in a statement Saturday that the new NIH policy is in line with what research institutions receive from private foundations.

The agency said “many of the nation’s largest funders of research—such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—have a maximum indirect rate of 15 percent.”

Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced that the Department of Health and Human Services canceled 62 contracts worth a total of $182 million.

One of the terminated contracts was a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

“These contracts were entirely for administrative expenses – none touched any healthcare programs,” stated DOGE, the new cost-cutting agency headed by Elon Musk, in a social media post on Friday.

The NIH has not returned a request for comment.

The changes have raised concerns by some in academia.

Jeffrey Flier, a Harvard University professor, wrote on X that cutting NIH grant indirect funding would cause chaos and harm biomedical research in hospitals, schools, and institutes around the country.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) called the move illegal.

“Trump’s proposal is ILLEGAL & amounts to an indiscriminate funding cut for research centers of all sizes, NOT just Ivies. It will mean shuttering labs across the country, layoffs in red & blue states, & derailing lifesaving research on everything from cancer to opioid addiction,” she said in a statement on X.

Some lawmakers welcomed the cuts.

“Eliminating excessive ‘indirect costs’ will save the American taxpayer tens of billions of dollars in overhead expenses,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) wrote on X.

Harris, who is also a physician, said the U.S. government pays significantly more than nonprofits. He also disputed claims that the cuts would eliminate research.

“The Trump administration did not cut funding for biomedical research. Funding excessive ‘indirect costs’ is not the same as funding the research itself,” said Harris.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 18:40

Trump: DOGE To Analyze Pentagon Spending After 7th Failed Audit

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Trump: DOGE To Analyze Pentagon Spending After 7th Failed Audit

President Donald Trump has directed Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to audit the Pentagon, after the Defense Department failed its seventh audit in a row.

During an interview with Fox News‘ Bret Baier set to air before the Super Bowl, Trump said he was directing DOGE to investigate both the Department of Education and the Pentagon.

“We’re going to find billions, hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud and abuse,” Trump said.

On Friday, Trump said during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that he was directing DOGE to investigate “Pentgon, education, just about everything,” adding that he thinks Musk will find “a lot” of waste, fraud and abuse.

“Sadly, you’ll find some things that are pretty bad, but I don’t think proportionally you’ll see anything like we just saw,” Trump said, referring to USAID – where the new administration has placed 97% of the staff on leave. Last week, Trump said that billions of dollars have been stolen by USAID.

Reviewing the Pentagon will be no small task for an agency which sees roughly $800 billion flow through it, and has never managed to pass its own financial audits with the exception of the Marine Corps.

The Pentagon employs nearly 3.3 million service members and civilians.

Musk, who has been appointed as a “special government employee,” is one of Trump’s key advisers, who has set a goal for DOGE to cut up to $2 trillion in federal expenses by July 2026.

Last week, DOGE claimed that it had managed to save over $1 billion by slashing contracts related to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), through halting “the hiring of people into unnecessary positions, the deletion of DEI, and stopping improper payments to foreign organizations,” as The Burning Platform noted on Sunday.

On Saturday, Musk said that DOGE and the US Treasury Department have agreed to new anti-fraud measures aimed at preventing tens of billions of dollars in fraudulent government entitlement payments each year, including the following:

– Require that all outgoing government payments have a payment categorization code, which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making audits almost impossible.

– All payments must also include a rationale for the payment in the comment field, which is currently left blank. Importantly, we are not yet applying ANY judgment to this rationale, but simply requiring that SOME attempt be made to explain the payment more than NOTHING!

– The DO-NOT-PAY list of entities known to be fraudulent or people who are dead or are probable fronts for terrorist organizations or do not match Congressional appropriations must actually be implemented and not ignored. Also, it can currently take up to a year to get on this list, which is far too long. This list should be updated at least weekly, if not daily.

The above super obvious and necessary changes are being implemented by existing, long-time career government employees, not anyone from @DOGE. It is ridiculous that these changes didn’t exist already!

Yesterday, I was told that there are currently over $100B/year of entitlements payments to individuals with no SSN or even a temporary ID number. If accurate, this is extremely suspicious.

When I asked if anyone at Treasury had a rough guess for what percentage of that number is unequivocal and obvious fraud, the consensus in the room was about half, so $50B/year or $1B/week!!

This is utterly insane and must be addressed immediately.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently defended DOGE’s actions at Treasury – telling Bloomberg in an interview with Bloomberg that the DOGE team is made up of highly trained professionals and “not some roving band running around doing things,” possibly in reference to claims by critics that DOGE has embraced and is applying the adage “move fast and break things,” which is part of the Silicon Valley start-up culture of being innovative, nimble, and disruptive.

 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 16:55

Secession From Illinois? It’s A Long Shot, But 6 Six Counties Voted Yes

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Secession From Illinois? It’s A Long Shot, But 6 Six Counties Voted Yes

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Long shot is a huge understatement, but the sentiment alone says what you need to know.

Secession From Illinois Is in the Air

Please consider Secession From Illinois Is in the Air

As states grow more politically polarized, the difference between good and bad governance is coming into sharper relief for voters. Enough people are noticing in Illinois that some counties want to secede from the Land of Lincoln and join a state that isn’t ruled by public unions and their political yes-men.

In November, to little national notice, seven Illinois counties voted to consider seceding, and now Indiana is rolling out the welcome mat. Voters in Iroquois, Calhoun, Clinton, Greene, Jersey, Madison and Perry counties approved a nonbinding ballot question on cutting ties with Illinois. The votes weren’t close. Six of the seven counties approved the advisory question by more than 70%. Iroquois County’s vote was some 72%, and Calhoun County’s near 76%.

The Illinois fiscal mess is so great that pressure will keep building to raise taxes again and again. Pension debt was $144 billion in 2024, up from $16 billion in 2000, according to Wirepoints and the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker called the secession idea a “stunt” and derided Indiana as a “low-wage state that doesn’t protect workers, a state that does not provide healthcare for people when they’re in need.” Illinois has a higher average income, but that’s a legacy of the state and city of Chicago’s economic glory days, which are long past.

Mr. Pritzker is essentially claiming the superiority of his welfare-state, public-union governance model. But fewer people are buying it. Since 2020, 33 Illinois counties have voted to consider breaking away from the state.

Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution says “no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”

This makes secession a high bar, since it would require Springfield’s agreement and approval from Congress. But maybe progressive lawmakers would be happy to be rid of those red counties so they aren’t regularly embarrassed by their votes to secede. Illinois Republican Rep. Brad Halbrook has introduced legislation for Illinois’s participation in the boundary commission.

When he runs for President in 2028, perhaps Gov. Pritzker can explain to voters why so many of his citizens want to flee his brand of tax-and-spend governance.

Related Posts

March 15, 2024: Congratulations to NY, IL, LA, and CA for Losing the Most Population

On a percentage basis, New York, Illinois, Louisiana, and California lost the most population between 2020 and 2023.

March 13, 2024: Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit

If you live in Illinois, get the hell out before unions take every penny you have.

August 11, 2024: Net Zero Climate Policies Could Leave the Midwest in the Dark

A cascade of net zero policies put Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois on a collision course with disaster when solar and wind fail.

November 25, 2025: When Do Mayor Brandon Johnson and the City of Chicago Finally Implode?

Chicago slashed 2,103 public safety job but added 184 administrators. The budget deficit is nearly $1 billion.

On October 5, 2019 I wrote Escape Illinois: Get The Hell Out Now, We Are

And we did in July or 2020. Hello Utah, we love it here.

Meanwhile, Illinois has only gotten worse. It’s truly incredible how the state keeps electing worse and worse governors.

And the City of Chicago had a seemingly impossible task of finding a worse mayor than Lori Lightfoot, but Brandon Johnson is not only worse, but amazingly worse.

Since secession is nearly impossible, I suggest voting with your feet.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 16:20

The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just The Game

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The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just The Game

With all the hype surrounding the Super Bowl, it’s easy to forget that in the end, it is still a sporting event.

However, if it weren’t for the spectacular halftime show and the special commercials airing during the broadcast, the Super Bowl probably wouldn’t be the global event it has become over the years.

According to a recent YouGov/Economist poll, only 30 percent of Americans said that the actual game was their favorite thing about the Super Bowl. 

Infographic: The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just the Game | Statista 

You will find more infographics at Statista

Meanwhile 26 percent of respondents said they enjoyed the commercials the most and 18 percent were most excited about the halftime show, featuring rapper Kendrick Lamar, who is having quite a week after winning five Grammys last Sunday.

Who Will Hoist the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans?

The Eagles and Chiefs will once again face off on Super Bowl Sunday. The Chiefs enter the contest as slight favorites, though they are arguably up against their toughest competition of the year. 

The Eagles underperformed to start the season, but now appear to be hitting their stride at exactly the right moment. Although favored, Kansas City will need to continue to play mistake-free football and put on a defensive display for the ages in order to three-peat, a feat that other dynasties such as the 1970s Steelers, 1990s Cowboys and 2000s Patriots failed to accomplish. The Chiefs are well-accustomed to winning close games, with narrow margins of victory common throughout the regular season and playoffs. 

That said, the Eagles have continuously turned close games into wide margins of victory over the course of the season. FWIW, Wells Fargo expects the Eagles to defeat the Chiefs 31-17, and we agree that an Eagles victory is overdue.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 15:45

The Most Dramatic Narrative Shift In Modern History

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The Most Dramatic Narrative Shift In Modern History

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

The most dramatic narrative shift in this post-lockdown period has been the flip in the perceptions of government itself. For decades and even centuries, government was seen as the essential bulwark to defend the poor, empower the marginalized, realize justice, even the playing field in commerce, and guarantee rights to all. 

Government was the wise manager, curbing the excess of populist enthusiasm, blunting the impact of ferocious market dynamics, guaranteeing the safety of products, breaking up dangerous pockets of wealth accumulation, and protecting the rights of minority populations. That was the ethos and the perception. 

Taxation itself was sold to the population for centuries as the price we pay for civilization, a slogan emblazoned in marble at the DC headquarters of the IRS and attributed to Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., who said this in 1904, ten years before the federal income tax was even legal in the US. 

This claim was not just about a method of funding; it was a commentary on the perceived merit of the whole of the public sector. 

Yes, this view had challengers on the right and left but their radical critiques rarely took hold of the public mind in a sustained way. 

A strange thing happened in 2020. 

Most governments at all levels across the globe turned on their people. It was a shock because governments had never before attempted anything this audacious. It claimed to be exercising mastery over the whole of the microbial kingdom, the world over. It would prove this implausible mission as a valid one with the release of a magic potion made and distributed with its industrial partners who were fully indemnified against liability claims. 

Suffice it to say that the potion did not work. Everyone got Covid anyway. Most everyone shook it off. Those who died were often denied common therapeutics to make way for a shot that clocked the highest rate of injury and death on public record. A worse fiasco would be hard to invent outside dystopian fiction. 

Participating in this grand crusade were all the commanding heights. That included mass media, academia, the medical industry, the information systems, and science itself. After all, the very notion of “public health” itself implies a “whole of government” and a “whole of society” effort. Indeed, science – with its high status earned from many centuries of achievement – led the way. 

The politicians – the people for whom the public votes and who form the one real connection that the people have with the regimes under which they live – went along but did not seem to be in the driver’s seat. Nor did the courts seem to have much role. They were closed along with small businesses, schools, and houses of worship. 

The controlling forces in every nation traced to something else we did not normally think of as government. It was the administrators who occupied agencies that were deemed independent of public awareness or control. They worked closely with their industrial partners in tech, pharma, banking, and corporate life. 

The Constitution did not matter. Neither did the long tradition of rights, liberty, and law. The workforce was divided between essential and nonessential in order to survive the great emergency. The essential people were the ruling class plus the workers who serve them. Everyone else was deemed unessential to social functioning. 

It was supposed to be for our health – government merely looking after us – but this claim lost credibility quickly, as mental and physical health plummeted. Desperate loneliness replaced community. Loved ones were forcibly separated. The aged died alone with digital funerals. Weddings and worship were cancelled. Gyms were closed and then opened later only for the masked and the vaxxed. The arts died. Substance abuse skyrocketed because while everything else was closed the liquor stores and pot shops were open for business. 

Here was when perceptions dramatically changed. 

Government was not what we thought. It is something else. It does not serve the public. It serves its own interests. Those interests are deeply woven into the fabric of industry and civil society. The agencies are captured. The largesse flows mainly to the well-connected. 

The bills are paid by the people who had been deemed nonessential and who were now being compensated for the troubles with direct payments that were created by a printing press. Within a year, this showed up in the form of inflation that dramatically reduced real income during an economic crisis. 

This huge experiment in pharmacological planning ended up flipping the rubrical narrative that had largely covered public affairs for everyone’s lifetimes. The terrible reality was being broadcast to the whole population in ways no one had ever before experienced. Centuries of philosophy and rhetoric were being shredded before our eyes, as whole populations came face-to-face with the unthinkable: government had become a grand scam or even criminal enterprise, a machinery that served only elite plans and elite institutions. 

As it turns out, generations of ideological philosophizing had been chasing fictional rabbits. This is true for all the main debates about socialism and capitalism but also the side debates about religion, demographics, climate change, and so much more. Nearly everyone had been distracted from seeing the things that matter by hunting for things that did not actually matter. 

This realization transversed typical partisan and ideological boundaries. Those who did not like to think about issues of class conflict had to face the ways in which the whole system was serving one class at the expense of everyone else. The cheerleaders of government beneficence faced the unthinkable: their true love had become malevolent. The champions of private enterprise had to deal with the ways in which private corporations participated and benefited from the entire fiasco. All major political parties and their journalistic backers participated. 

No one’s ideological priors were confirmed in the course of events, and everyone was forced to realize that the world worked in a very different way from what we had been told. Most governments in the world had come to be controlled by people no one elected and these administrative forces were loyal not to voters but to industrial interests in media and pharma, while the intellectuals we had long trusted to say what is true went along with even the craziest of claims, while condemning dissent. 

Making matters more confusing, no one in charge of this disaster would admit error or even explain their thinking. The burning questions were and are so voluminous as to be impossible to list in full. In the US, there was supposed to be a Covid commission but it never formed. Why? Because the critics far outweighed the apologists, and a public commission proved too risky. 

Too much truth could get out, and then what would happen? Behind the public health rationale for the destruction, there was a hidden hand: national security interests rooted in the bioweapons industry that has long lived under a classified cover. This is likely what accounts for the strange taboo concerning this whole topic. Those who know cannot say while the rest of us who have been researching this for years are left with more questions than answers. 

While we wait for a full accounting of how it is that rights and liberties were crushed worldwide – what Javier Milei has called a “crime against humanity” – there is no denying the reality on the ground. There was certain to be a blowback, the ferocity of which would only intensify the longer justice is delayed. 

For several years, the world had awaited the political, economic, cultural, and intellectual fallout, while the perpetrators held on hoping that the whole subject would just go away. Forget about Covid, they kept saying to us, and yet the sheer size and scale of the calamity would not go away. 

We live in the midst of that now, with minute-by-minute revelations of where the money went and who precisely was involved. Multiple trillions were squandered as the people’s standard of living took a dive, and now top among the burning questions is: who got the money? Careers are being wrecked as famous anti-corporate crusaders like Bernie Sanders turn out to be the US Senate’s largest single beneficiary of pharma largesse, exposed for the world. 

The Sanders story is just one data point of millions. The news of the sheer number of rackets is spilling out like an avalanche minute-by-minute. The newspapers we thought were chronicling public life turned out to be on the take. The fact-checkers were always working for the blob. The censors were only protecting themselves. The inspectors we believed were keeping an eye out were always in on the game. The courts keeping tabs on government overreach were enabling it. The bureaucracies tagged to implement legislation were unchecked and unelected legislatures in themselves. 

The shift is beautifully illustrated by USAID, a $50 billion agency that claimed to be doing humanitarian work but which was really a slush fund for regime change, deep-state operations, censorship, and NGO graft on a scale never before seen. Now we have the receipts. The entire agency, lording over the globe like an unchecked colossus for decades, seems destined for the trash heap. 

And so on it goes. 

Frequently overlooked in all the commentary on our times is how the second Trump administration is Republican in name only but mostly consists of refugees from the other party. Tick through the names (Trump, Vance, Musk, Kennedy, Gabbard, and so on) and you find people who only a few years ago were associated with the Democratic Party. 

Which is to say that this aggressive rooting out of the deep state is being achieved by what is a de facto third party aimed at overthrowing the establishments of the legacy ones. And this is not just in the US: the same dynamic is taking shape throughout the industrialized world. 

The entire system of government – properly conceived of not as a democratically elected conduit of the peoples’ interest but instead a complicated and unelected network of unfathomable industrial racketeering with a ruling class at the controls – seems to be unraveling before our eyes. 

It’s like the old episodes of Scooby-Doo when the scary ghost or mysterious specter has the mask removed and it is the town mayor all along, who then proclaims that he would have gotten away with it but for these meddling kids. 

The meddling kids now include vast swaths of the world’s population, burning with a passionate desire to clean up the public sector, expose the industrial scams, unearth all the secrets that have been kept for decades, put power back into the hands of the people as the liberal age promised long ago, while seeking justice for all the wrongdoing of these last hellish five years. 

The Covid operation was an audacious global attempt to deploy all the power of government – in all the directions from and to which it flowed – in service of a goal never before attempted in history. To say that it failed is the understatement of the century. What it did was unleash fires of fury the world over, and whole legacy systems are in the process of burning down. 

How deep is the corruption? 

There are no words to describe its breadth and depth. 

Who is regretting this? 

It’s the legacy news media, the legacy academic establishment, the legacy corporate establishment, the legacy public-sector agencies, the legacy everything, and this regret knows no partisan or ideological bounds. 

And who is celebrating this or, at least, enjoying the upheaval and cheering it on?

It’s the independent media, the genuine grassroots, the deplorables and nonessentials, the pillaged and oppressed, the workers and peasants who were forced to serve the elites for years, those who have been truly marginalized through decades of exclusion from public life. 

No one can be sure where this ends up – and no revolution or counterrevolution in history is without cost or complication – but this much is true: public life will never be the same for generations to come. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 15:10

Israeli Troops Withdraw From ‘Death Zone’ Corridor Which Cut Gaza In Half

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Israeli Troops Withdraw From ‘Death Zone’ Corridor Which Cut Gaza In Half

As part of the ongoing ceasefire deal Israeli troops have withdrawn from the militarized zone that cut Gaza in half, called the Netzarim Corridor, and have been removed to the enclave’s eastern border, Al-Jazeera has reported. It has long commonly been called “the death zone”.

The result is that for the first time in well over a year Palestinians can freely cross between the north and south of Gaza. The corridor stretched the Mediterranean Sea, and videos show large groups of people returning to their largely destroyed communities.

Netzarim corridor in central Gaza, via IDF

Israel’s military has described that troops were “implementing the agreement” to leave the corridor in order to facilitate the return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.

Israeli sources told the NY Times that IDF troops have already exited the Netzarim Corridor by Sunday morning. The day prior, Hamas had released three more emaciated-looking hostages. 

Hamas has declared the IDF withdrawal, which was agreed to as part of the 42-day first phase of the ceasefire, a “a victory for the will of our people, a crowning achievement for the steadfastness and heroism of our valiant resistance, and a confirmation of the failure of the goals of the terrorist aggression.”

The deal next stipulates that on day 50 of the ceasefire Israel is required to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.

Since major Israeli ground operations began in the wake of Oct.7, Israel has sought to order all residents of northern Gaza to flee south. However some 400,000 defied these orders and remained in their communities in the north, amid heavy battles.

“We endured famine, thirst, bombings, fear, everything. We lived among corpses, under ruins, eating food that wasn’t fit for animals. But we never left northern Gaza,” one eyewitness, Saaed Salem, told The Guardian. 

“Each time the Israeli army ordered an evacuation before a ground invasion, I moved only to a nearby neighborhood. And as soon as the invasion ended, I was the first to return,” he said.

Meanwhile, Trump has continued pressuring Egypt and Jordan to take in the Gaza Strip’s one million plus Palestinians. But the reality is that it will simply be a non-starter and practically impossible, without Arab support. The Arabs in turn have blasted this as brazen and open ethnic cleansing campaign of historic and sovereign territory. The United Nation has also issued such condemnations.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 14:35

Government Data Is Garbage: Elon Should Focus On Fixing That Next

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Government Data Is Garbage: Elon Should Focus On Fixing That Next

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Data, “Rules” & Messiness

It is difficult to believe that the inauguration was only 2 weeks ago, given the fast and furious pace of executive orders and headlines. DOGE has been even more “prolific” in terms of generating headlines than I would have ever guessed, and I already thought it would be impactful. It is going to be interesting.

But that takes us away from a few key topics for today.

Data

If you thought that we were going to start with jobs data, you are mistaken. Today, “inflation expectations” deserve some attention. Right around 10am ET Friday, the stock market started to decline. Until that moment, it had done fairly well even as yields increased on the back of the jobs report. Then out came the University of Michigan CONsumer CONfidence data, showing 1-year inflation expectations jumping from 3.3% to 4.3%! This was lucky for us, as we had pointed out in our NFP Instant Reaction – What to Do With Data You Don’t Trust that we were moderately bearish risk assets. Consumer inflation expectations were not on my bingo card of what could turn stocks, so I guess that we can classify that under “better lucky than smart.” We should just run with it, but we cannot help ourselves. We have never fully understood:

  • Why does the Fed place so much weight on inflation expectations, particularly from survey data? From people who aren’t experts?
  • Not saying that “experts” have all the answers, but do these individuals really have precise, realistic estimates in mind? Maybe the options should be high, above average, average, below average, and very low? I’m hesitant to put a specific number on inflation for the next year and I spend a LOT of time thinking about it.
    • For the first time in my life, I was motivated to go to their site and see what it takes to become a respondent. But with my VPN turned on during my flight from San Diego (where Academy just hosted a great Geopolitical Summit), I couldn’t access the site. But it is on my “to do” list now.
  • But this is the real kicker!

  • I have no idea how UMich comes up with an average of 4.3. Nor do I really care. Not just for the reasons listed earlier, but also the fact that Republicans are expecting 0 and Democrats are looking for 5% seems insane. It is “almost” like Republicans put in low numbers, hoping the Fed sees and cuts rates (or they just believe in DOGE and the president). It is also “almost” like Democrats put in high numbers, hoping the Fed sees and doesn’t cut rates (or they don’t believe in DOGE and the president’s policies). I understand that political views could influence inflation expectations, but this seems extreme!

Since the inflation expectations data helped trigger the risk asset sell-off that I was leaning towards, I should be happy, but it seems so ridiculous that it needed to be highlighted!

“Rules”

Speaking of things so ridiculous that they need to be highlighted, let’s look at some economic “rules.”

In physics, what we consider rules are termed laws. But for most people, rules are a set of “things” that need to be followed. Whether they are laws or axioms, they are things that are clear and explicitly define and control actions. On the other hand, conjectures, educated guesses, and “rules of thumb” are general guidelines that often work or point you in the right direction. But by no means are they immutable rules that must be followed.

So why do economists insist on terming certain things rules that are really conjectures? Probably because it sounds better, especially if you want people to believe that they work. Or maybe it just makes it easier to win prestigious economic awards?

But we revisit this subject today, not to focus on how inaccurate it is to call many of these things rules, but to highlight that the so-called rules definitively don’t work when they are based on inaccurate data!

Let’s look at the Sahm Rule which came to prominence this summer. It predicts that when relatively rapid changes in the unemployment rate occur, a recession will follow. I was too lazy to look up the exact definition (airline wi-fi, limitations of working on a laptop, lack of interest), but it is something like when you get a 0.5% increase from high to low (using a 3-month average) within 6 months, we get a recession. Many claimed it happened this summer. Some, I think, argued that with rounding, it didn’t occur. But NONE OF THAT MATTERS! We just learned on Friday that the BLS said there were 2 MILLION more workers in the labor force last year than previously thought! A big enough number, that if we knew in real-time, would likely have dramatically changed all of the unemployment rate data that not only triggered things like the Sahm Rule, but also probably affected monetary policy!

And let’s not even get started on things like the Taylor Rule or anything that depends on R*.

GDP – a somewhat wild guess that gets amended, often significantly.

Inflation, time and again, seems to defy what we live and breathe. With hedonics, measurement issues, and well-known issues (like the lag on OER), it is difficult to take it as seriously as we are expected to (measured to 1 or 2 decimal places).

So, basing “rules” on things where the data is unlikely to be accurate is bad enough, and then layer in the risk of treating something as a rule, rather than a decent theory, and we are ripe for more policy mistakes (yes, I believe these issues contributed to transitory, etc.). Let’s not even get started on R* or the neutral rate.

If this rant seems at all familiar, it is because we covered it last month in Jobs and AI. Maybe I’m motivated to hammer this home because I’m actually hopeful that there is the possibility of achieving some change?

Whether or not we like any, all, or none of the things this administration is doing, they do seem open to change.

If we could get better, more accurate, and timely data, we should be able to make better decisions.

That would reduce the risk of policy error, poor business decisions, etc., which would be great and is why I think it should be a priority for the government to revisit – especially in this day and age where almost everything is stored electronically, updated in real-time, and we have the ability to harness AI like we’ve never had before!

Elon, if you read this, please think about it! Wouldn’t you want better, more accurate, and more timely information in your decision making?

Messiness

Reciprocal Tariffs came up on Friday, adding to the problems stocks and bonds were facing. This is very much in line with my current concerns and the view that this year will be messy, but manageable.

  • The market seems to have settled on the view that these are all just “negotiating” ploys. That has led to muted or short-lived market reactions. While we were fully on board with fading last weekend’s tariff war (kind of comical to write that sentence), we are not so comfortable fading tariffs now.
    • Both Canada and Mexico got 30-day reprieves (to some extent) just for agreeing to do what they had already been planning to do on some level. Small win for the president, but not overwhelming. In the case of Canada, I expect the president to decide that it wasn’t enough, and he needs more tariffs. I think that is a mistake for many of the reasons (regarding supply chains) listed last weekend in The New Trump Tariffs. The complexity of existing agreements and the efficiencies built into the supply chain will be disrupted, causing more harm than good for both countries.
    • There are many in the administration (presumably based on UMich responses) that like the idea of getting more and more revenue from tariffs (in order to cut taxes). I cannot say that I completely disagree with that view, but it could be taken to extremes.
    • You can rattle the cage (so to speak) so often before the people inside that cage start making some plans of their own. Tariff uncertainty, even if intended to be a bargaining tool, could turn into tariffs depending on the responses, but could also cause changes to supply chains as companies get tired of the risk. If you assume, as I do, that supply chains are fairly optimized to be efficient, changes (for whatever reason) will be problematic (with inflation being the first potential issue).

Expect more noise on tariffs as the market has become too complacent, and I think that it is now far more likely to face a downside rather than an upside surprise from “negotiations.” A different view than I had last weekend, but things move fast in 2025!

Crypto

We now, apparently, have a sovereign wealth fund (more on that in the future). We have a “Crypto Czar” who gave a speech surrounded by crypto supporters. We have multiple states trying to pass some sort of crypto reserve (no idea why, other than it is popular and probably attracts some nice campaign promises), yet as of the time that we are writing this, Bitcoin is “only” at $96k.

That seems odd to me. Never has there been so much public support, but so much has been priced in that it is difficult for it to go higher. Maybe, also, on the down days, we realize that because it is hard enough to put a price on things that in theory we know how to value (stocks and bonds), it is nearly impossible to figure out a “fair value” for a bunch of 1s and 0s? The Rise and Fall, or more like the Meteoric Rise and Plummet of meme coins, might also be making some wonder about the validity of the “store of value” nature of this “scarce asset?”

When you get positive headline after positive headline and don’t get the response that you expect, it is time to get nervous.

Bottom Line

Look for moderately higher yields. Shorts have been squeezed. This market, which seems to rapidly oscillate between overbought and oversold, appears to be overbought again. Expect a lot more “cost savings” headlines from DOGE, especially as they start looking at big programs (like Medicare and the Defense Budget). However, it won’t be enough to offset spending, tax cuts (the deficit will continue to rise), or the very real risk that supply chains will be less efficient (due to tariffs or the response from tariff noise) creating inflation pressures (for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, alike). Still targeting 4.8% to 5% on 10s with 2s/10s getting to at least 50, with 75 as a longer-term target. Bessent does seem focused on getting 10s down, but that might be far easier said than done, especially given the current policy priorities.

On equities, look for some overall weakness in U.S. markets. Expect value and equal weighted indices to outperform market weighted indices. Be wary of small caps. As much as I’d like to include small caps in my list of outperformers, they seem more likely to bear the brunt of tariffs and policy mistakes than large companies. Just above 5,800 on the S&P 500 is my target, with risk of a big move to the downside if markets decide we’ve been too optimistic about what can be done quickly. Longer term I’m optimistic, but I don’t like the overall market right now (especially since I don’t think yields/the Fed will be helpful).

Look for foreign markets to outperform the U.S. (positioning is so tilted the other way, that it won’t take much to get this going). Especially if the dollar continues to increase on the back of tariffs.

I don’t like commodities themselves, but I do like the commodity producers and those companies that play an important role in the extraction and processing of commodities!

For the first time in what seems like eons (I’m pretty sure it has been shorter than that) I’m leaning towards being bearish credit spreads. Last time we were bearish on corporate credit, this time it is on spreads (in addition to overall yields).

  • IG is tight. We all know that, but with all the uncertainty, it could be difficult to maintain current levels of tightness. A strong dollar may hurt profitability at some large global corporations. If spreads weren’t so tight, not a big deal, but they may need to widen a touch on that. If M&A is returning (part of our thesis), that tends to be negative for IG as those are the companies that can be levered up. Not thinking a big move, but time for some caution.
  • HY is more susceptible than IG. If I’m getting a bit worried about small caps, I have to worry a bit about high yield. Though there seems to be an entire cottage industry dedicated to shorting high yield, so any damage to the market should be small.

Good luck and hopefully I’m not the only one who already feels like this has been a long year! No shortage of things to think about, to react to, to anticipate, and to do!

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 14:00

San Diego Supervisor Says Border Now Ghost Town Under Trump’s New Policies

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San Diego Supervisor Says Border Now Ghost Town Under Trump’s New Policies

Donald Trump has been in office for about three weeks. In that time, he signed an executive order to secure the southern and northern borders, deploying thousands of US military troops to restore national security. Now, a senior official at one of the nation’s busiest illegal border crossings has taken to X to highlight the stark difference at the border under the Biden-Harris regime in the last four years and the current situation. 

On Saturday afternoon, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond said the San Diego border region was one area left wide open by Democrats… 

“For the past four years, our border has been wide open, allowing millions of people to enter the country without proper vetting, including hundreds of thousands here in San Diego. I saw it firsthand—human traffickers dropping people off and walking through into the country without being stopped. Last year, for the first time since the 1980s, San Diego had the highest number of border crossings in the nation,” Desmond said. 

The official then described the current border situation under Trump and his new policies: “With a new administration in place, I went back to the San Diego border to see what’s happening now. The numbers have dropped dramatically—less than 100 people are crossing a day in San Diego. It’s a stark contrast to the chaos we saw just months ago.” 

At the end of Trump’s first full week in office, the president posted a graph on Truth Social that shows the collapse in daily encounters of illegals on the border. 

Voters are witnessing swift progress at the border, strengthening their confidence in the president. Folks have now seen firsthand that securing the border only takes a few short weeks and an executive order. At the same time, globalists in the Biden-Harris regime lied to the American people that the only way to secure the border was through Congress. 

Meanwhile, globalist Democrats and their billionaire funders who pushed open borders and wrecked national security will no longer be able to hide behind their public/private censorship blob as Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE rip down the leftist Matrix. The era of accountability has arrived. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 12:15

Trump Doubles CBS Lawsuit Damages To $20 Billion Over Harris’s 60 Minutes Interview

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Trump Doubles CBS Lawsuit Damages To $20 Billion Over Harris’s 60 Minutes Interview

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has expanded his lawsuit against CBS, doubling the damages sought to $20 billion and adding CBS parent company Paramount Global as a defendant.

(Left) Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater in North Las Vegas, Nev., on Oct. 31, 2024; (Right) Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, greets supporters during a campaign rally at the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno, Nev., on Oct. 11, 2024. Ethan Miller, Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The amended complaint, filed on Feb. 7 at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, alleges news distortion, election interference, and financial harm caused by CBS’s handling of its “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It is beyond dispute that Defendants wanted Harris to win the Election, and indeed political gain for Harris was certainly Defendants’ intent behind their tampering with the Interview,” the amended complaint reads. “But Defendants’ primary motivation was commercial and pecuniary gain.”

Trump’s legal team claims that CBS deceptively edited Harris’s responses to make her appear more articulate and composed, while also diverting viewership from Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, reducing ad revenue. The complaint asserts that CBS intentionally aired different portions of Harris’s remarks on “Face the Nation” and “60 Minutes,” misleading the public about her full statements.

“Once Defendants finally released the unedited version of the Interview, it became apparent that they had engaged in gross broadcast distortion cover-up and manipulated not only Harris’s Reply about Prime Minister Netanyahu, but the Interview in its entirety,” the amended complaint reads.

CBS has dismissed the claims and maintains its edits were standard journalistic practice.

“We are posting the same transcripts and videos of our interview with Vice President Kamala Harris that we provided to the FCC [Federal Communications Commission],” the network said in a Feb. 5 statement. “They show–consistent with 60 Minutes’ repeated assurances to the public–that the 60 Minutes broadcast was not doctored or deceitful.”

CBS further stated that a longer portion of Harris’s response aired on Face the Nation while a shorter one aired on 60 Minutes for the sake of brevity.

“As the full transcript shows, we edited the interview to ensure that as much of the vice president’s answers to 60 Minutes’ many questions were included in our original broadcast while fairly representing those answers,” the network stated. “60 Minutes’ hard-hitting questions of the vice president speak for themselves.”

The uncut transcript reveals that some of Harris’s answers were cut roughly in half and clarifies her full response to a question about the Israel–Hamas war, which Trump’s campaign claimed was awkwardly phrased and was unfairly edited to improve her image. The transcript also shows that Harris’s complete answer was a combination of the two aired clips.

“Well, Bill, the work that we have done has resulted in a number of movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by, or a result of many things, including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region. And we’re not going to stop doing that. We are not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end,” Harris said, per the transcript.

Reacting to the transcript’s release, Trump wrote in a post on social media that it shows CBS had removed Harris’s “horrible election changing answers” and replaced them with better ones and that this was election interference and “election fraud at a level never seen before.” He also called for CBS to lose its broadcasting license.

Trump’s original lawsuit, filed on Oct. 31, 2024, sought $10 billion in damages from CBS for alleged news distortion and election interference. The amended complaint seeks an additional $10 billion under the Lanham Act, which covers false advertising and unfair competition, citing harm to Trump’s business interests, including Truth Social.

“As a direct and proximate result of Defendants’ misconduct, significant viewership was improperly diverted to Defendants’ media platforms, resulting in lower consumer engagement, advertising revenues, and profits by TMTG and President Trump’s other media holdings,” the amended complaint reads.

The new filing also names Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) as a plaintiff, arguing that he was harmed as a consumer of misleading broadcast news.

Trump’s lawsuit coincides with the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) decision to reopen a news distortion complaint against CBS, initially dismissed in January but revived by new FCC Chairman Brendan Carr.

“CBS played the same question on two different programs and clearly the words of the answers were very different,” Carr said in a Fox News interview. “Was it edited for clarity and length—which would be fine—or are there other reasons?” 

Democrat FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez called the move a retaliatory effort to intimidate the media.

The Epoch Times has reached out to CBS and Paramount with requests for comment on the amended complaint.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/09/2025 – 11:40