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Extreme Cold, Snow Places Texas Power Grid & Permian On Alert

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Extreme Cold, Snow Places Texas Power Grid & Permian On Alert

Texas’ top electricity regulator issued a “Weather Watch” from Monday morning through Thursday, citing “extreme cold weather” and the potential for snow, which could send electrical demand soaring across the state. 

According to the National Weather Service, snow is forecasted to begin in Houston on Monday evening and accumulate to upwards of 4 inches by Tuesday. After the snow, frigid temperatures are expected to sweep in, bringing dangerously cold conditions that could jeopardize the power grid and energy infrastructure. 

Weather Watch goes into effect today through January 23 due to forecasted extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves,” the Electric Reliability Council of Texas wrote on X, adding, “Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal.”

Tony Fracasso, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, said, “It’s a significant storm for so far south.” 

“It looks like almost the entirety of Texas has some chance of wintery precipitation,” Fracasso noted. 

The early alert issued by ERCOT implies that extreme cold could pressure the power grid. ERCOT stated that peak electricity demand is expected to rise over the next two days, reaching about 77.2 gigawatts. Even though ERCOT predicts high demand, it anticipates having sufficient supply to meet demand

“As freezing temps blanket Texas, the power grid is performing better than ever,” Governor Greg Abbott wrote on X Sunday evening, adding, “There is ample supply of power available to meet your needs.”

Besides potential grid strains, frigid temperatures could curtail natural gas supplies due to the freezing of oil and gas wells and pipes, known as “freeze-offs” by energy analysts. 

On Tuesday, West Texas temperatures will average around 29F. Through Saturday, average temperatures in the oil-rich Permian basin will remain below the 30-year average of 47F for this time of year. This cold could disrupt oil and gas output by freezing water in wells and pipelines

Ahead of the snow, Houston Airports announced that flights at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, William P. Hobby Airport, and Ellington Airport will be suspended on Tuesday morning. 

The storm is expected to blanket snow across the  Gulf Coast and Deep South coastal areas. 

Meteorologist Tony Pann questioned if this wintery weather for the Gulf Coast was a “once-in-a-lifetime event“…

Here’s our latest reporting on the polar vortex and energy markets:

Where did global warming go? Please come back

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 15:00

On Biden’s So-Called “Oligarchs”

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On Biden’s So-Called “Oligarchs”

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

In his last address, Joe Biden offered a Parthian shot at “oligarchs” and the dangers these “billionaires” pose to the republic. At the same time, left-wing senators hammered Trump cabinet nominees on the grounds that they would be too complacent in the face of a supposed takeover of the country by Trump’s “billionaires” and their “oligarchy.”

Many things could be said about Biden’s farewell address, but I will limit them to three.

First, Biden was attempting to copycat the warnings of outgoing president and iconic war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Some 64 years earlier—on January 17, 1961, the near day of Biden’s “farewell address,” a departing Eisenhower warned of a new “military-industrial complex” threat to the republic that had grown out of World War II and was cresting during the ongoing Cold War of the 1950s.

The fear, as Ike outlined it, was that a new small tech-corporate elite would sell the country on all sorts of expensive weapons and programs to ensure a near-permanent condition of hyper-military readiness and national insolvency.

This resulting “garrison state” would make the arms merchants and technocrats rich but also exhaust the U.S. treasury in the process. What would follow for the American people was a government octopus that demanded ever higher taxes while spending money in ways increasingly unknown or irrelevant to the public interest.

Eisenhower worried the grandees of the military-industrial complex—ex-generals revolving into defense contractor lobbyists and board members—would redefine the ancient laws of war and peace in terms of mumbo-jumbo techno-jargon. The resulting esoterica was designed to justify budget-busting defense expenditures, without enough care that the federal government would expand while the now overtaxed and overregulated citizen would be at their mercy.

Apparently, a departing Biden sought to graft his own “oligarchy” speech onto Eisenhower’s earlier blueprint.

But Ike was speaking as a successful two-term president. And he was an iconic war hero, as the architect of the successful American role in defeating Hitler—from the beaches of Normandy to the occupation of the defeated German homeland.

The postwar president Eisenhower was worried about a new world in which new nuclear-tipped missiles threatened to turn any conventional war between superpowers into nuclear Armageddon. In other words, Americans listened to Eisenhower, given his probity, gravitas, and experience—and the dangers of the new corporate-government fusion. But they have no reason to listen to Biden.

Or to paraphrase a famous quip from 1988 Democratic vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen, “President Biden, you’re no Dwight Eisenhower.” Biden was removed by his own party insiders from the Democratic ticket before he did further damage to his party as he was finishing his failing one-term presidency. He left the country in shambles, at home with hyperinflation, 12 million illegal entries, a nonexistent border, spiking crime, and destroyed deterrence abroad. He humiliated the armed forces in Afghanistan, encouraging enemies that prompted two theater-wide wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Moreover, after swearing he would not pardon his own son as Hunter Biden faced numerous felony indictments and convictions, Biden did just that—thereby likely preventing further investigations into the entire corrupt Biden family.

Biden leaves office desperate to sabotage his successor, extending even to the pettiest detail, such as selling off critical steel panels essential to the construction of the border wall that he suspended.

Again, Ike had credibility; not so with Biden.

Second, until November 2024, Biden had no problems with oligarchs.

In fact, he courted and used them. And they, in turn, eagerly donated lavishly to his agenda. Multibillionaire George Soros nearly wrecked the criminal justice system by pouring millions of dollars into big-city radical district attorney races to ensure the election of left-wing ideologues who would not arrest, indict, jail, convict or incarcerate thousands of dangerous violent felons—all in pursuit of bankrupt progressive ideas like “critical legal theory” and “critical race theory”.

So happy was Biden with Soros’s nihilistic multimillion-dollar work and his lavish contributions to Biden’s two presidential runs that he awarded the Soros the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

In 2020, Meta/Facebook CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg did the bidding of the Biden campaign team by pouring $419 million into Biden-related PACs and voting groups to change voting laws and absorb the work of the registrars in key states. And on the eve of the last 2020 presidential debate, it was Facebook, under pressure from Biden lackeys, that began censoring accurate news stories about the incriminating Hunter Biden laptop, in hopes of arming Biden with a credible lie.

Biden also mumbled about “censorship” and the loss of “fact-checkers.” But when the “oligarchs” who run Apple, Facebook, and Google decided to conspire to destroy upstart conservative social media platform Parler in 2021, Biden apparently thought it was wonderful. And, of course, he uttered not a peep of criticism of oligarchic-government strangulation of the market.

So why is Biden so worried about oligarchy?

The answer is as easy as it is insulting.

“Oligarchs” like Elon Musk, David Sachs, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Andreesen all realized that Biden’s ruthless team was leveraging their liberalism to use these “oligarchs” as illiberal megaphones for his own power and reelection.

When they understood that the new Democratic dream was to fuse their social media and high-tech companies with the government—but under the control of left-wing anticapitalism activists to help the obsequious and punish the free-thinking—they revolted.

In other words, they realized that their freedom was endangered by the left and that the country under Biden was descending into cultural chaos.

Third, quite unlike Biden, Trump is leveraging support from “billionaires,” many of whom have not donated to his campaign and were not previously his political supporters.

His appeal to them is not, as alleged, to further the Trump one-term presidency in political terms.

Rather, Trump, in his brief four years, has enlisted “billionaires” like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, David Sachs, and Mark Andresen in the way that Franklin Roosevelt, in 1941-1942, reached out to his other party’s millionaire captains of industry to fuel a Depression-era-recovering economy to produce the type and number of weapons to defeat Germany and Japan, who had a near decade head start. Roosevelt essentially gave these “oligarchs” and “multimillionaires” wide latitude to produce as much as they could to win the war.

The result was that shipbuilder and aluminum magnate Henry Kaiser began mass-producing historic Liberty and Freedom cargo ships in astronomical numbers to supply our troops overseas. The neo-socialist FDR even reached out to arch-paleoconservative Henry Ford. By 1949 Ford was building one B-24 heavy bomber per hour at his innovative and gargantuan Willow Run plant.

Roosevelt also created a “war production board,” staffed by the arch-conservative capitalists—and in Biden’s terms “oligarchs”—like Charles E. Wilson, the head of General Electric; William Murphy of Campbell Soup; Matthew Fox of Universal Pictures; and others, to create a national marriage of labor, capital, media, and advisors to radically reboot the nascent war effort.

The result by 1945 was that a once stagnant and virtually unarmed nation that was surprised at Pearl Harbor, in a short four years, built a navy larger than all the ships of the major combatants combined. America’s capitalists eventually fueled a GDP larger than all our major allies and enemies together. By the end of the war, they were supplying much of the entire Allied effort with everything from aviation and trucks to fuel, radios, and rations.

Trump knows that the current multitrillion-dollar annual deficits and $36 trillion debt are unsustainable—while high taxes, Draconian regulation, and profligate spending are strangulating the economy. And Trump further realizes that our dilemma is the work of both political parties in Congress and past Democrat and Republican administrations.

Trump fears the rise of China that seeks to absorb Taiwan, coerce our friends in the Pacific like Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and steal our technology.

So, he further insists that in the future, the U.S. must master emerging technologies and services—such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, cyberwarfare, cryptocurrency, drones, emerging fuels like small nuclear plants, hydrogen, and mega-batteries, and deadly new weaponry from lasers to hypersonic missiles.

In that regard, he knows that the talent that created and mastered these technologies and new services are not greedy billionaires and “oligarchs,” but, if enlisted in a common cause for their fellow citizens, could become the modern successors to Kaiser, Knudson, Ford, and Wilson.

Biden’s hypocritical parting shot at “oligarchs” should be filed with his eleventh-hour crazy pardons, his final lies about pardoning his son, and the bizarre edict that unconstitutionally, as some dictator, he could pass a 28th Amendment by fiat: all the sad end of a sadder presidency.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 14:30

Mexico Is All Talk: They Have No Power To Stop Trump’s Mass Deportation Plans

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Mexico Is All Talk: They Have No Power To Stop Trump’s Mass Deportation Plans

In the weeks leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration there has been an escalation in rhetoric from Mexico and the rest of Central America in regards to the plan for mass deportations of illegal immigrants.  The prevailing message from these neighbors to the south was, initially, that they will do anything they can to make the process difficult.  Trump, expecting this response, has used the threat of tariffs as leverage to gain cooperation.  And frankly, it’s working.

Progressive Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been full of bluster but she is slowly and surely falling in line.  Sheibaum has been publicly combative with Trump on the issue of deportations, denying Trump’s claim that Mexico was planning to secure their border and threatening economic retaliation should tariffs be used.  She recently stated that Mexico’s policy was:

“…Not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and people”.

Whatever that means.  Analysts dealing in US/Mexico relations claim Sheinbaum is on the right track to ensure a strong ongoing relationship with Trump.  “She’s sending this message that she is a strong political leader,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, pointing to recent polling that shows Sheinbaum has increased her popularity to a staggering 80% approval rating, opens new tab after her first 100 days in office.  “Trump without a doubt comes with a lot of power and legitimacy, but she does as well,” Kloppe-Santamaria added. 

But does the Mexican president’s approval rating mean anything when it comes to deportation policy?  Not really.  After all, Mexico has been a parasitic element feeding on the US economy for quite some time; it’s not surprising that a large portion of the population wants the bloodletting to continue.

For example, Mexico receives billions of dollars in foreign assistance from the US every year.  In 2023 alone, the country was given over $63 billion in payoffs, right out of the pockets of American taxpayers.  This money is given to Mexico with the stated intent of “reducing irregular migration, yet illegal border crossings only skyrocketed along with subsidies.

Mexico is not alone.  Many Central and South American countries receive billions in foreign assistance from the US in the name of slowing immigration caravans.  In other words, these nations keep their borders open and allow millions of illegals to cross into the US, and then extort the US for cash to make the pain stop.  Then, when they get the money, they let even more illegals flood the border.  It’s an endless sham.

Beyond the subsidies is the exploitation of the US border as a steam valve to get rid of undesirables.  Criminals, malcontents and the poverty stricken are encouraged to migrate to the US illegally so that Mexico and other countries can avoid civil disturbances.  These corrupt governments don’t want to fix their own problems, they outsource them to the US instead. 

Border security is now a non-negotiable factor in America’s geopolitical agenda (as it should be) and the notion that the US is supposed to act as a sponge soaking up the refuse leaking out of the third world has lost all favor among native borne citizens (many legal migrants also oppose open borders).  With the majority of Americans in support the deportations are going to happen and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop them.

Trump’s tariff strategy carries real weight, especially when it comes to Mexico.  More than 80% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S., causing much of its economy to depend on American markets. The most prominent exports from Mexico to its northern neighbor are cars and car parts, while the U.S. purchases approximately 92% of Mexican agricultural exports.  Tariffs of 10% or more could wreck the Mexican economy within months.  They have no choice but to comply.

Mexican leaders argue that tariffs will also hurt the US, claiming that this will trigger inflation.  Claudia Sheinbaum asserts that there will also be extensive job losses in the US due to tariffs and deportations.  It’s clear she doesn’t understand how these things work.

Tariffs create job opportunities by encouraging companies to bring production back into the United States so they can avoid extra import costs.  Deportations, obviously, stop millions of illegal migrant workers from gaming the system by working under the table for much lower wages compared to American laborers.  The very presence of these people drives down the overall wage rate and makes it difficult for native born citizens to find jobs.

In terms of inflation, tariffs can raise prices on foreign goods, but illegal immigrants raise prices more.  The ten million-plus illegals that have entered the US under the Biden Administration have helped to drive up housing prices exponentially.  Their demand for goods and services creates shortages in necessities and because they are often subsidized by tax dollars through welfare programs they drive up the national debt at the same time.      

Mexico remains the leading country of origin for immigrants in the U.S., representing 23% of all migrants, according to the Pew Research Center.  Not only that, but the vast majority of migrants from other parts of the world use Mexico as an open highway to the southern border and the Mexican government does little to interfere. 

This is about to change.  The Mexican president has been adjusting her tune in the past week, stating that Mexico will be preparing to accept deported migrants.  Not only migrants from Mexico, but also those not from outside Mexico (they created the crisis by not securing their own border, so now they get to clean up the mess).   

Sheinbaum announced on Friday that her administration has outlined a contingency plan for Mexican nationals expected to be deported by the incoming United States President.   During her morning press conference, Sheinbaum announced jobs and social programs for ousted Mexicans if Trump decides to carry out his threats of mass deportations when he resumes power on January 20th.  

“We have been preparing to receive Mexicans who have a space at the border and in other places so that they can have access to social programs, employment, and be able to move within our national territory to return to their places of origin…”

It’s not that Mexico has become more reasonable in the past month; these kinds of mood changes require a sharp slap upside the skull.  It appears that Mexican and Central American authorities are finally being taken behind the woodshed after years of obstinate behavior. 

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 14:05

TIME Magazine Describes Trump’s Second Term As A “Disruption”

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TIME Magazine Describes Trump’s Second Term As A “Disruption”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a post unveiling a special Inauguration day cover depicting President Trump sweeping away everything on the Resolute Desk in the White House, TIME Magazine has captioned the image “Donald Trump’s disruption is back.”

An animated online version of the cover, featuring sleepy Joe Biden’s trademark aviator sunglasses, was posted by the publication.

Respondents pointed out that while Trump’s second term might be a disruption to the agenda of the leftist media, it was the past four years that were really the disruption to the prosperity of the country.

Others pointed out that this is yet another example of TIME unintentionally making Trump look badass.

Meanwhile over at the White House today:

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 13:40

Watch: President Trump Hails Start Of “Golden Age Of America” In Inaugural Speech

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Watch: President Trump Hails Start Of “Golden Age Of America” In Inaugural Speech

Inauguration 2025 Livestream:

 

 

*   *   * 

Update (1325 ET):

Welcome back, Mr. President. 

President Trump declared, “America’s decline is over,” during his second inaugural address delivered in the US Capitol Rotunda. He described the election as a mandate to end “a horrible betrayal” and pledged to prioritize an “America First” agenda. The president also vowed to “rebalance” the scales of justice. 

“Our sovereignty will be reclaimed, our safety will be restored, the scales of justice will be rebalanced. The vicious, violent, and unfair weaponization of the Justice Department and our government will end,” Trump said. 

He said climate, education, and public health policies will change “starting today and very quickly.”  

Trump promised to sign an executive order to “immediately stop all government censorship and bring back free speech to America.”

He stated, “From this moment on, America’s decline is over.” 

The president then spoke about unity and criticized the Biden administration: “In the United States of America, as we gather today, our government confronts a crisis of trust. For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly incomplete disrepair …  We now have a government that cannot manage even a simple crisis at home, while at the same time, stumbling into a continuing catalog of catastrophic events abroad.” 

Trump continued on the subject of unity: “National unity is now returning to America, and confidence and pride is soaring like never before in everything we do. My administration will be inspired by a strong pursuit of excellence and unrelenting success. We will not forget our country. We will not forget our Constitution. And we will not forget our God.”

Trump shifted his speech to the migrant invasion crisis. He said that “criminal aliens” would be deported, catch and release would end, and US troops would secure the border, adding that drug cartels would soon be deemed terrorist organizations. 

“As Commander in Chief, I have no higher responsibility than to defend our country from threats and invasions, and that is exactly what I am going to do. We will do it at a level that nobody has ever seen before,” Trump spoke about the migrant crisis that Democrats and their globalist buddies unleashed across the Heartland. 

Trump addressed the inflation monster, saying, “I will direct all members of my cabinet to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat what was record inflation and rapidly bring down costs and prices.”

“We will drill baby drill,” Trump said, adding that a national energy emergency would be declared. We discussed this earlier… 

Trump’s policy rollout has been as expected and is consistent with his campaign pledges.

He said he would sign a “series of historic executive orders” and “with these actions, we will begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of common sense.”

Regarding gender, Trump said: “As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government, that there are only two genders: male and female.”

The president noted that all efforts to “​socially engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life” will be halted dead in its tracks. Instead, he said, he will “forge a society that is colorblind and merit-based.”

Trump then declared that the Gulf of Mexico would be renamed the “Gulf of America.” 

He praised President McKinley for the Panama Canal and his efforts during the Spanish-American war. He stated, “China is operating the Panama Canal,” indicating, “We’re taking it back.”  

Trump then spoke about space and wanted to “plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars.” 

He pledged to “end the chronic disease epidemic“… 

During Trump’s speech, the White House released a summary of Trump’s America First Priorities:

Make America Safe Again

  • President Trump will take bold action to secure our border and protect American communities. This includes ending Biden’s catch-and-release policies, reinstating Remain in Mexico, building the wall, ending asylum for illegal border crossers, cracking down on criminal sanctuaries, and enhancing vetting and screening of aliens.

  • President Trump’s deportation operation will address the record border crossings of criminal aliens under the prior administration.

  • The president is suspending refugee resettlement, after communities were forced to house large and unsustainable populations of migrants, straining community safety and resources.

  • The Armed Forces, including the National Guard, will engage in border security, which is national security, and will be deployed to the border to assist existing law enforcement personnel.

  • President Trump will begin the process of designating cartels, including the dangerous Tren de Aragua, as foreign terrorist organizations and use the Alien Enemies Act to remove them.

  • The Department of Justice will seek the death penalty as the appropriate punishment for heinous crimes against humanity, including those who kill law enforcement officers and illegal migrants who maim and murder Americans.

Make America Affordable And Energy Dominant Again

  • The president will unleash American energy by ending Biden’s policies of climate extremism, streamlining permitting, and reviewing for rescission all regulations that impose undue burdens on energy production and use, including mining and processing of non-fuel minerals.

  • President Trump’s energy actions empower consumer choice in vehicles, showerheads, toilets, washing machines, lightbulbs and dishwashers.

  • President Trump will declare an energy emergency and use all necessary resources to build critical infrastructure.

  • President Trump’s energy policies will end leasing to massive wind farms that degrade our natural landscapes and fail to serve American energy consumers.

  • President Trump will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.

  • All agencies will take emergency measures to reduce the cost of living.

  • President Trump will announce the America First Trade Policy.

  • America will no longer be beholden to foreign organizations for our national tax policy, which punishes American businesses.

Drain The Swamp

  • The president will usher a Golden Age for America by reforming and improving the government bureaucracy to work for the American people. He will freeze bureaucrat hiring except in essential areas to end the onslaught of useless and overpaid DEI activists buried into the federal workforce. He will pause burdensome and radical regulations not yet in effect that Biden announced.

  • President Trump is announcing an unprecedented slate of executive orders for rescission.

  • President Trump is planning for improved accountability of government bureaucrats. The American people deserve the highest-quality service from people who love our country.

  • The president will also return federal workers to work, as only 6% of employees currently work in person.

  • President Trump is taking swift action to end the weaponization of government against political rivals and ordering all document retention as required by law. President Trump is also ending the unconstitutional censorship by the federal government. No longer will government employees pick and require the erasure of entirely true speech.

  • On the president’s direction, the State Department will have an America-First foreign policy.

Bring Back American Values

  • The president will establish male and female as biological reality and protect women from radical gender ideology.

  • American landmarks will be named to appropriately honor our Nation’s history.

White House website: “America Is Back”… 

Listen to Trump’s speech here:

Now, it’s time for a barrage of executive orders. 

*   *   * 

President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance are set to take the oath of office in the US Capitol Rotunda in just a few short hours, officially ushering in the era of Trump 2.0 (‘America First’). The ceremony marks the peaceful power transfer from the Biden-Harris regime to Trump-Vance-MAGA.

Trump and Vance will be sworn in at 11:40 AM ET inside the US Capitol Rotunda, a decision attributed to dangerously cold temperatures outside (though speculation about security concerns, such as potential drone threats…). 

Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the oath of office to Trump on the Lincoln Bible and a Bible gifted to him by his mother in 1955. Then, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh will administer the oath of office to Vance. 

President Joe Biden’s and Vice President Kamala Harris’ terms will officially end at noon, as directed by the 20th Amendment in the Constitution.

Trump, as president, will then deliver his inaugural address, where he is expected to lay out the America First vision for his second term. 

According to CBS News, the inaugural ceremonies were planned by Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota.

Klobuchar’s committee oversees eight events on Inauguration Day:

  • the procession to the Capitol;

  • the vice president’s swearing-in ceremony;

  • the president’s swearing-in ceremony;

  • the inaugural address;

  • the honorary departure of the outgoing president and vice president;

  • the signing ceremony, during which the new president signs nominations, memorandums, proclamations or executive orders;

  • the inaugural luncheon;

  • the pass in review, during which the president and vice president review military troops;

  • and the presidential parade, which will take place at Capital One arena in downtown Washington due to the cold.

Exact Timing of Today’s Inauguration Ceremony: 

After the inaugural ceremony, the Trump-Vance administration will be hard at work – expected to issue “close to 100” executive orders, if not more…

CNN cited sources that Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming deputy chief of staff for policy, reviewed some of the planned executive orders with senior congressional Republicans on Sunday. 

One of the executive orders Trump is expected to issue is “declaring a national energy emergency…” 

We expect a barrage of lawsuits from DC swamp law firms to hit the Trump administration in the hours and days after taking power to slow the ‘America First’ progress that will upend many swamp creatures. 

As for the state of the economy as Trump enters the White House, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, told clients earlier:

On Inauguration Day 2025, the US economy is in the sweet spot of healthy growth and gradual disinflation. We estimate that real GDP grew 2.6% in Q4 and expect a similar pace in 2025. Our forecast is ½pp above the latest Bloomberg consensus, in part because we are still more confident than others that real disposable personal income will grow solidly in 2025 and in part because of a sturdy forecast for business investment. That said, we are not as far above consensus as for most of the last two years because other forecasters have become more optimistic given ongoing strength in the data and, in some cases, high expectations for the growth-positive aspects of the Trump agenda.

Maybe Hatzius forgot to mention that the economy’s “sweet spot” is being produced by debt rising $1 trillion every 100 days.

We suspect BlueSky users suffering from ‘TDS’ will rage this afternoon.

*Follow this running blog for more updates. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 13:25

DC Swamp Law Firm To Sue Elon Musk’s DOGE Minutes After Trump Inauguration

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DC Swamp Law Firm To Sue Elon Musk’s DOGE Minutes After Trump Inauguration

President-elect Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated early Monday afternoon in a ceremony inside the Capitol Building. This morning has already been chaotic, with reports that Trump plans to issue hundreds of executive orders, while President Joe Biden announced last-minute preemptive pardons for Dr. Anthony Fauci and others.

The Washington Post reports that minutes into Trump’s second term, the DC non-profit public interest law firm National Security Counselors will file a lawsuit claiming Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” violates federal transparency rules. 

WaPo’s Jeff Stein obtained a 30-page complaint that will be filed later today. The complaint alleges that the nongovernmental DOGE panel violates a 1972 law requiring advisory committees to the White House to adhere to rules on disclosure, hiring, and other practices.

The lawsuit claims that DOGE meets the requirements of a “federal advisory committee,” which is required by law to have a “fairly balanced” representation. These include filing annual reports summarizing the committee’s activities with the General Services Administration, tracking minutes and other meeting documents that must be made publicly available unless exempted by law, and filing a charter with Congress. 

“DOGE is not exempted from FACA’s requirements,” NSC stated in the lawsuit, written by Kel McClanahan, executive director of National Security Counselors. 

McClanahan said, “All meetings of DOGE, including those conducted through an electronic medium, must be open to the public.”

The lawsuit asks the court that any report produced by DOGE “does not reflect the views of a lawfully constituted advisory committee” and to ban Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who also leads the panel, from conducting any official business until it complies with FACA.

McClanahan told WaPo in a statement, “We’re not trying to say DOGE can’t exist. Advisory committees like DOGE have been around for decades. We’re just saying that DOGE can’t exist without following the law,” adding, “If DOGE turns around and complies with FACA, the case is over.”

Meanwhile, Sam Hammond, senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, said DOGE primarily implements ideas within the White House and should be exempt from FACA: “DOGE isn’t a federal advisory committee because DOGE doesn’t really exist. DOGE is a branding exercise, a shorthand for Trump’s government reform efforts.”

Hammond added: “The president is allowed to take advice from external experts without creating a formal advisory committee.”

On X, the account featuring National Security Counselors stated, “Pub interest law firm for natsec, info/privacy law. I’m not here anymore. Come find me on Bluesky.”

Bluesky is a social media app for anti-Trumpers suffering from ‘TDS’… 

The non-profit’s Director, Bradley P. Moss, is another Bluesky-er in the DC swamp.

Not a fan of Musk’s X. 

DC Swamp is poised to unleash a barrage of lawsuits against Trump. Let the chaos begin. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 12:15

Trump’s Tariff Playbook: All You Need To Know

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Trump’s Tariff Playbook: All You Need To Know

As we head into the inauguration, let’s take a look at some of policy changes that we can expect from Trump 2.0.

First, the table below from Goldman’s research team, provides a useful summary of the key policy changes expected:

Below, we summarize some thoughts from a weekend call by Goldman chief political strategist, Alec Phillips, discussing the focus be for day 1 action:

  1. Immigration (border control actions & deportation planning (although not expecting rapid mass deportation))
  2. De-regulation (more specifically, energy de-regulation – leasing federal land, LNG export approvals etc.)

What about tariffs?

  • Don’t expect day 1-2 actions here.
  • Aside from anything else, Alec thinks Trump will want the first 24-48hrs of headlines and market reaction to be uniformly positive.
  • China: Goldman expects fast action on China tariffs, but more like week 1-to-month 1 (rather than day1). The Goldman baseline equates to an average additional +20pp tariff rate (table of baseline views below, note Mex auto’s also in baseline (70% odds)).
  • Universal: We have long-had 40% odds of a global all-imports tariff, think that’s roughly right still; but arguably see the skew around this as higher odds of some form of global tariffs, while being less likely on all imports (due to reports like WaPo etc.).
  • Timings: Think any early announcement outside China would more likely be on process/launching investigation on import categories etc., rather than actual tariffs themselves. The Mar-Aug tax legislation process, and May-Jun Senate hearings may well include more detail for fiscal revenue plans.

In 2017, Trump began using executive orders immediately upon taking office, reflecting his intent to fulfil key campaign promises (he issued 7 executive orders in his first week in 2017). There is an expectation (according to Polymarket) he could be even more aggressive this time around:

Which policies matter most?

The most consequential policies for markets (particularly RoW) will be those related to trade. This is reflected in client polls:

There is an expectation that some of these trade policies could enacted quickly. For example Polymarket puts a 44% probability of tariffs on China in the next week:

What tariffs could be implemented?
 
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump emphasized the use of tariffs as a central component of his economic policy. He advocated for a universal baseline tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, aiming to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits. He also proposed targeted tariffs on specific countries (for example a tariff of up to 60% on Chinese goods) and specific industries (such as autos).

Goldman expects Trump to increase tariff rates on imports from China by average of 20% — less for consumer goods but by as much as 60% for non-consumer goods — and to impose some additional tariffs on auto imports. A universal 10-20% tariff on all imports is a serious risk—they assign a 40% probability—but is not their baseline.

Polling of Goldman’s clients is broadly inline with the above view, with investors assigning an average probability of 35% to a universal tariff:

What impact could this have on Europe?

Goldman estimates a 10% tariff could hit Euro area GDP by 1% and European EPS by 6-7% should the entire impact come in 2025. It is also worth noting that trade uncertainty has a significant negative impact as companies delay investments until the policy outlook becomes clearer. For example, Goldman estimates that a rise in trade policy uncertainty as large as the increase observed in the 2018-19 trade war could lower GDP growth by 0.9% in the Euro area.

Broadly speaking, EU equities (particularly exporters) and EURUSD will trade lower on any tariff announcements – even if they are limited to China/Mexico initially. The trade policy uncertainty as well as potential market share losses (for example Chinese companies dumping goods on Europe) are enough to create significant headwinds for European exporters (particularly Autos and Chemicals industries).

What are the trades?
 
The recent rally (and surprising outperformance relative to the US YTD) in EU equities provides an opportunity to add some downside hedges, according to Goldman’s Anton Tran. Any tariff announcements in the first few weeks of the new Trump administration have the potential to catch investors offside, particularly given the turn around in positioning. After reclaiming short/medium term thresholds in the last few weeks, the Goldman model suggest CTAs are now long EU delta with downside convexity in DAX and SX5E:

First, the most liquid and vanilla:

Buy 21st Mar25 98%/93% PS in DAX for 79bps

Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

  • DAX is the most exposed to world trade of the liquid European indices
  • It also had the worst 5day returns around tariff announcements in 2018-19

For those looking for a more targeted (and higher beta) custom basket:
 
Buy 21st Mar25 98%/93% PS in GSXETRFS (GS EU Tariff Exposed) for 1.45%

Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

  • GSXETRFS is a basket composed of European companies with high US Sales exposure but limited US manufacturing presence/ high % of US exported goods, screened with a qualitative overlay.
  • Names are expected to face challenges in the event of implementation of tariffs on US export goods. They had significant beta to tariff announcement days in 2018/19 (see chart below).
  • Basket is OW Automobiles & Electrical Equipment names.
  • For those who prefer listed product, the SXAP put spread trades at similar premium

Finally, for traders who want even more leverage and play in the exotic space, SX5E/EURUSD down/down dual binaries look interesting:

  • Buy 17th Apr25 SX5E < 95% & EURUSD < 98% for 8.5% (22%/26% EQ/FX indivs)
  • Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

Much more in the full Goldman tariff note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 12:00

Trump To Issue Flurry Of Border & Immigration EOs, Along With DEI, Trade, Energy And TikTok

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Trump To Issue Flurry Of Border & Immigration EOs, Along With DEI, Trade, Energy And TikTok

President-elect Donald Trump will issue 10 executive orders related to immigration and the border on Monday, including declaring a national emergency at the border, NBC News reports, citing an incoming White House official.

By declaring a national emergency, the Department of Defense will be authorized to deploy the military and national guard to the border. Officials did not elaborate on how many troops would be sent, or the scope of their involvement – saying it would be up to the DoD to make those decisions.

The official also said the Trump administration would continue building the border wall and suspend refugee resettlement for at least four months.

According to the NY Times, the following is a list of notable EOs Trump will issue;

  • Close the border to asylum-seeking migrants and end asylum and birthright citizenship. The president cannot change the Constitution on his own, so it’s not yet clear how Trump plans to end the guarantee of citizenship for those born in the United States, which is in the 14th Amendment.

  • Involve the U.S. military in border security. This would draw immediate legal challenges because of the strict limits in American law for how the armed forces can be deployed inside the country.

  • Declare migrant crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border to be a national emergency, which would allow Mr. Trump to unilaterally unlock federal funding for border wall construction, without approval from Congress, for stricter enforcement efforts.

  • Designate drug cartels as “global terrorists.”

Designating MS-13 and Tren de Aragua as Foreign Terrorist Organizations would make it illegal for anyone to provide aid or collaborate with the groups.

  • End remote work policies and order many agencies back to the office 4-5 days a week.

  • Establish biological sex definitions for federal workers and as part of revised Title IX guidance to schools

  • Remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons.

  • Remove protections for transgender migrants in U.S. custody.

  • Direct federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices, including trade deficits, unfair currency practices, counterfeit goods and a special exemption that allows low-value goods to come into the United States tariff free.

  • Assess China’s compliance with a trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020, as well as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

  • Order the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.

  • Declare a national energy emergency, which could allow him to unlock powers to speed permitting for pipelines and power plants..

  • Order the federal government to roll back regulations that impede domestic energy production.

  • Signal an intention to loosen the limits on tailpipe pollution and fuel economy standards.

  • Roll back energy-efficiency regulations for dishwashers, shower heads and gas stoves.

  • Open the Alaska wilderness to more oil and gas drilling.

  • Eliminate environmental justice programs across the government, which are aimed at protecting poor communities from excess pollution.

Mr. Trump vowed early Sunday to issue an executive order to give ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, more time to make a sale and satisfy a law that would ban it in the United States. The incoming White House officials previewing Mr. Trump’s executive actions on Monday did not address any executive action on the app.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 11:35

Peter Schiff: All The Data Confirms Stagflation

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Peter Schiff: All The Data Confirms Stagflation

Via SchiffGold.com,

On Wednesday, Peter marked his return to the Peter Schiff Show studio. He tackles the most recent batch of 2025 economic data, highlights inflation signals in commodity prices, and comments on President Biden’s legacy as his term comes to a close. Donald Trump is set to take the reins on Monday, and Peter also analyzes the latest from the president-elect.

To start the show, Peter praises Trump for what appears to be a behind-closed-doors negotiation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Despite his strengths, Trump is unlikely to solve America’s economic troubles:

You know, I criticize Trump when criticism is due. And believe me, there’s a lot of criticism that is due. And I’m going to be criticizing him later in this podcast. But I do want to get credit for what credit is due. And it’s my feeling that he has a lot to do with this. There will be some successes during the Trump presidency. Unfortunately, economically, there’s going to be a lot of failures. And it’s not necessarily because of what Trump’s going to do. It’s kind of preordained. It’s baked into the cake here.

Turning to President Biden’s farewell speech, Peter reiterates how decisively the American electorate renounced the Biden presidency

He also talked about his accomplishments in his four years as president, which, of course, you know, he doesn’t really have any accomplishments. These are made up. I mean, the things that he’s bragging about actually undermined the economy during his four years. That’s why the public didn’t vote for four more. … The public didn’t feel that the Biden presidency was a success. They didn’t want four more years of that. They wanted four more years of Trump. And that’s because they thought the economy was better when Trump was president than it was when Biden was president.

When looking at recent economic statistics, Peter is reminded of commodity price action during the 2020 pandemic. If history repeats itself, the economy is in for another year of tough inflation:

If you remember, commodity prices really started to boom in the second half of 2020. I was talking about that on this podcast constantly, how we were going to have a big move up in inflation just looking at commodity prices. That’s when the Fed was not worried about it at all. …Look at commodity prices. They’re a leading indicator. And the big increase that we have in commodity prices in 2024, that’s not going to show up in the CPI until 2025 this year. So CPI was up 2.9% last year. Now we have soaring commodity prices. So what’s the odds that the CPI is going to be up less in 2025 than it was in 2024 before we had this big run up in commodity prices?

With alarming CPI numbers downplayed in the headlines, Peter points out that another important metric– the Empire State Manufacturing Index– plummeted this week, signaling recessionary pressures to go with inflation:

You know, while everybody was celebrating the fake good news about inflation, nobody noticed the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which was another disaster. They were looking for a positive number. They didn’t get one. They were looking for plus 1. They got minus 12.6. I think that’s about a seven-month low in the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Look, as far as I’m concerned, all the data confirms stagflation. 

Peter lambasts Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for understating the role of the Fed in causing inflation in a recent interview. In fact, the Fed monetizing deficit spending was the primary driver of inflation over the last 5 years:

The deficit spending financed by Fed money printing, that was the inflation. So it wasn’t that the deficit spending may have contributed to it. It was it. It was part of it. It takes two to tango. And in fact, Chairman Powell actually asked for these deficits. He told Congress, ‘Run big deficits, spend a bunch of money, I’ll buy the bonds.’ He was encouraging the inflationary fiscal policy during COVID. So it didn’t just have a casual incidental effect. That was it.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 11:10

Putin Says Trump Will Help Prevent WW3 In Inauguration Day Congratulations Message

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Putin Says Trump Will Help Prevent WW3 In Inauguration Day Congratulations Message

Russia has congratulated Donald Trump as he takes office as US president on Monday, with President Putin making statements expressing hope for speedy resumption of official contacts between the two countries.

The Russian leader made the remarks in a meeting of the country’s National Security Council, crucially suggesting Trump’s return to the White House will help prevent world war three.

“We’re hearing the statements of the newly elected US president and members of his team about the desire to restore direct contacts with Russia, which were halted by the outgoing administration,” Putin began.

Source: Kremlin.ru

That’s when he stressed, “We also hear his statement about the need to do everything to prevent world war three.” A separate translation of the televised national security speech reads as follows:

“We hear [Trump’s] statements on the need to prevent World War III. We undoubtedly welcome such a disposition and congratulate the elected U.S. president.” 

“Of course, we welcome such an attitude and congratulate the elected US president on taking office,” he continued, explaining that Moscow has never “refused dialogue” with the United States. He said any fresh dialogue must be done on an “equal and mutually respectful basis.”

According to more of Putin’s congratulatory remarks via The Wall Street Journal:

Putin, in comments to the Russian security council on Monday, said Russia sought a “long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all peoples who live in the region.” He added that his country would “Fight for the interests of Russia and the Russian people, which is the objective of the special military operation.” Trump, who has been skeptical of aid to Ukraine, has said that he wants to see an end to the war, which is about to enter its fourth year, and has called for a cease-fire administered by European forces.

A week ago Trump said of Putin, “I know he wants to meet, and I’m going to meet very quickly.Trump had described, “I would have done it sooner, but… you have to get into the office.” 

These words came soon on the heels of incoming national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz teling ABC News that “the preparations are underway” for a meeting between Trump and the Russian leader.

“I do expect a call … at least in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said. “So, that would be a step, and we’ll take it from there.”

Prior reporting on the ‘Trump peace plan’ suggests that the US side will offer Ukraine a twenty-year waiting period before it can hope to join NATO; however, Moscow has rejected even this possibility as a non-starter.

Without doubt, Moscow sees itself in the driver’s seat – even as Ukraine tries to inflict as much damage as possible through drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. Russian forces have made weeks of rapid gains in the Donetsk, including having captured several villages and towns just on the outskirts of Pokrovsk.

There’s widespread understanding that as soon as Pokrovsk falls, the whole of Donetsk will firmly be in Russian military control, given the city is central to the Ukrainian army’s logistical operations in the area.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/20/2025 – 10:45