Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Apparently today at 4:00 pm we will learn the details of this wave of tariffs.

Treasury Secretary said yesterday that this will represent a “cap” on tariffs and basically the starting point of negotiations from here (we will see if that messaging sticks).

What I think we know:

• Relatively little “negotiating” has occurred, which I believe is not what the administration expected. Other countries are “playing” the President differently than they did during Trump 1.0. It also probably doesn’t help that this time around, there is no “divide and conquer”.

• Other countries are already having conversations about trade, bypassing the U.S.  Apparently, Japan, China and South Korea are talking. That makes sense as the U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unclear and that could dramatically impact South Korea and Japan. Canada and Mexico are apparently having discussions. I’m sure Europe (or some countries within Europe) are having a variety of trade dialogues (it is really, really, really important to notice that they do not want to spend their increased military spending on U.S. equipment – to the extent they can avoid it).

• Other countries are likely going through their tariffs, line by line, estimating which ones they can give in on, with minimal impact and which ones are important. Given that the U.S. is fighting with everyone and allegedly still hasn’t finalized its plan, we are likely to not fare well at the granular level.

• The Geopolitical actions so far – from NATO, to Russia/Ukraine, to 51st State, to “take” Greenland, etc., have only added to the questions about dealing with the U.S. that other countries have.

• The U.S. does not have a lot of excess capacity (it will take time to build) and so far no legislation on the deregulation front  

Deliberate/Thoughtful Tariffs :

• Risk Assets can and should rally. If these sort of tariffs had been the starting point, we could probably move on. But they weren’t and coupled with the issues listed above, I think the rally will stall. It will need indications that global tensions with trading partners have eased to reduce. It will be curious to see how his base responds? Will there be any erosion of the aura of “the art of the deal”?

Medium Level of Tariffs:

• Anything less than 15% to 20% across the board tariffs. I expect slight risk asset rally (market seem desperate to rally on certainty) but think that fades quickly and we drift lower, trading on headlines going forward. 

Aggressive Tariffs

• Immediate sell-off in risk assets. Stocks drop 3% or more quickly with ongoing selling pressure. 10-year treasury likely breaks 4%.

I hear a lot of chatter that the policies will force the Fed to act. 

Maybe but, I think the Fed will act late and it will be too small relative to the total revamp of global trade to stop the slide. 

There were a lot of easier ways to get the Fed to cut – like stick to “drill baby drill”, reduce regulations (ideally via legislation as opposed to executive orders), etc. 

The whole “this is all to get the Fed to cut” is incredibly risky (who knows what was set in motion) and only seems to have gotten traction because Wall Street doesn’t want to believe how much this administration believes in the benefits of tariffs.

Hopefully I will be disappointed and wrong and markets can rally and threats to the global economy can be greatly reduced, but I think once we get beyond debating the tariffs, we will be forced to digest the mess that global trade is in, and that cannot be good for corporate earnings or the economy.

For better or for worse, here is Academy on Bloomberg TV this morning, where, the jetlag worked in my favor as I was up at 3 am anyways 

Should be an interesting few days, to say the least!

Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday following an anonymously sourced Politico report (keeping in mind Musk just yanked millions in government ‘subscriptions’ from them) that President Trump has told his inner circle that Musk would be stepping back from his advisory role in the coming weeks.

Musk, who Politico describes as “governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man” (totally not salty), claims that Trump “remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role.“

Then Politico gets extra nasty – writing that “Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points.”

One anonymous official allegedly told Politico that Musk is likely to retain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional face around the White House, while another said that anyone who thinks Musk is going to disappear entirely from Trump’s orbit is “fooling themselves.”

As we noted above, shares of Musk-owned Tesla rose more than 5% on the report.

While Polymarket odds that he’ll be out as the head of DOGE in 2025 spiked as well.

Earlier this week the Kremlin said it has given the Trump White House formal notification and evidence showing that Ukraine has continued attacking Russian energy sites, despite the US-backed agreement for each side to refrain from hitting this infrastructure.

On Wednesday Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that so far there’s been no response from the Trump administration. “So far, there has been no reaction to such actions by the Kiev regime,” Peskov said.

Previously Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described that a list of violations had been handed over to US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Russia’s representatives in the UN and the OSCE, “so that they in their work would present concrete facts demonstrating what the word of the Ukrainian authorities is worth,” according to TASS.

But Ukraine has said it has done the same thing, as both sides have lately accused the other of violating the partial ceasefire. “We have passed on all the necessary information about Russian violations in the energy sector,” President Zelensky said in a Tuesday evening address.

He has called on Washington to strengthen sanctions on Russia, and as of Thursday the US Treasury has issued some further anti-Russia sanctions on its website.

“I believe we have come to the point of increasing the sanctions impact, because I believe that the Russians are violating what they have promised America. At least what America has told us, and publicly,” Zelensky said.

This week for the first time a top Russian negotiator and Putin representative will meet with Trump official Steve Witkoff in Washington. The US has temporarily waved sanctions on the Russian official in order to grant him a visa for the visit.

“His visit will mark the first time a senior Russian official has visited Washington, DC, for talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and marks a further step in the marked warming in relations between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to office in January,” CNN writes.

Kirill Dmitriev is a “close adviser to Putin and traveled with top Russian officials to Riyadh in Saudi Arabia in February to start discussing a settlement for the end of the war in Ukraine,” the report notes. “He also worked with Witkoff to free American teacher Marc Fogel from Russia, which the Trump administration hailed as a goodwill gesture.”

As for where overall negotiations to end the war in Ukraine stand, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Tuesday that current US proposals on ending the war can’t be accepted in their current form.

Assuming CNN is accurate, Putin is sending a Harvard-educated financier—not a general, politician or spymaster—to meet Trump’s team in DC. Dmitriev runs Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. Until a month ago, he wasn’t even a Kremlin official. It says a lot about Moscow’s game plan. https://t.co/s6sOwpjJW6

— Brian McDonald (@27khv) April 1, 2025

He complained they don’t address the “root causes” and that Kiev doesn’t appear ready to get serious about pursuing peace.

“What we have today is an effort to find a framework that would make it possible to ensure America’s vision for a ceasefire. The idea is to then move on to some other models and frameworks, which, as far as we can see, leave no room for Russia’s core demand, that is, the need to resolve the issues stemming from the root causes of this conflict,” he said, as quoted in TASS.

Authored by Emel Akan and Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs for all nations starting April 2, the date he has dubbed “Liberation Day.”

Companies, markets, and governments are on edge, expecting the move to send shockwaves across the globe.

Liberation Day will impact all countries, Trump told reporters over the weekend aboard Air Force One. However, some countries will be more vulnerable due to their high trade imbalances with the United States and significant trade barriers against American goods, including China, India, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea.

The president will reveal details of his tariff plan at a White House Rose Garden event Wednesday afternoon after the stock markets close.

Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on March 31, Trump stated that his tariff rates will be lower—and in certain instances “substantially lower”—than what other countries have been charging the United States.

“We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were,” the president said. “We have a world obligation, perhaps, but we’re going to be very nice, relatively speaking. We’re going to be very kind.”

On Feb. 13, the president unveiled the concept, describing it as a “fair and reciprocal plan” for trade by raising U.S. levies to match duties that other nations impose on U.S. products.

He instructed his team to assess and recommend tariffs on countries that impose significant barriers to U.S. products, including tariffs, value-added taxes, and other non-tariff restrictions. The assessment will also consider the foreign exchange policies of America’s trading partners.

Trump’s tariff policies are anticipated to have a significantly broader impact on products, industries, and countries affected by tariffs compared to previous administrations. According to an estimate by consulting firm PwC, the measures could increase U.S. tariff revenues from $76 billion annually to almost $697 billion.

A key objective behind the administration’s tariff plans is to reverse America’s decades-long trade deficit.

The United States has recorded trade deficits every year since 1976. Last year, the U.S. goods and services trade gap surpassed $918 billion—a 17 percent increase from 2023.

Many factors have contributed to this decades-long trend. A low national savings rate, for example, has resulted in a higher dependence on foreign capital to fund investments. Foreign markets’ comparative advantage, mainly in the form of lower labor costs, has also led to cheaper imports, satisfying ferocious domestic consumption.

White House officials, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, believe tariffs could be a part of the solution to undo ongoing trade deficits.

“Part of the question is how large of a trade deficit do we want, because the trade deficit represents, in large part, manufacturing jobs that have [gone] overseas,” Greer told the Senate Finance Committee in February.

He also noted that worsening trade imbalances with particular countries were a “huge problem.”

In 2024, China ranked first, with the U.S. trade deficit reaching $295 billion. This was followed by the European Union ($236 billion), Mexico ($172 billion), Vietnam ($124 billion), Taiwan ($74 billion), and Japan ($69 billion).

Economists argue that the administration’s sweeping trade policy changes will have the greatest impact on industries that have traditionally benefited from low or no tariffs. As a result, these industries will be forced to evaluate the costs and benefits—such as logistics, tax rates, and tariffs—of relocating production to the United States.

Last year, the top U.S. importer jurisdictions were Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan.

Sectors Most Affected By New Tariffs

Higher tariff rates will impact a wide range of sectors and countries.

Automobile manufacturing in Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico could be the hardest hit. The auto industry will navigate potential disruptions from reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s higher import duties on steel, aluminum, foreign vehicles, and car parts.

Canada’s oil and gas sector is also expected to be hammered. The United States imports more than 4 million barrels of crude per day—up significantly from 15 years ago.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has already imposed tariffs on China over its failure to address its role in illicit fentanyl trafficking into the United States. Now, with the introduction of  reciprocal tariffs, China could face major disruptions in its exports of smartphone technology and lithium-ion batteries, the two items most heavily shipped to the United States.

Other industries facing significant impacts include critical medicines and health care equipment, which are primarily sourced from India, Ireland, and Switzerland.

The European Union and emerging markets could take a hit from reciprocal tariffs, says Mary Park Durham, a research analyst at JPMorgan Chase.

First, the E.U. accounts for approximately one-fifth of U.S. imports and registered a trade surplus.

“While the U.S. and EU have similar average tariff rates of 3.4% and 4.1% on each other’s imports, respectively, disparities arise at the product level,” she said in a note.

The U.S. government has highlighted the bloc’s value-added taxes (VATs), which it views as tariffs. VATs are consumption taxes absorbed by producers at each stage in the supply chain and consumers at the point of sale. The EU’s VAT rate averages 20 percent, higher than the average U.S. sales tax rate of 6.6 percent.

While the U.S. Trade Representative’s 2025 National Trade Estimate Report did not specify Europe’s VATs, White House officials have rebuked the policy, calling it a “double whammy.”

“No wonder Germany sells eight times as many cars to us as we do to them, and President Trump is no longer going to tolerate that,” an official told reporters in February.

Second, emerging markets such as Brazil and India maintain high average tariff rates on all imports. These countries generally impose higher import duties to shield vulnerable domestic industries from foreign competition.

“The difference in tariff rates between emerging markets and the U.S. in their bilateral trade tends to be wider than that for developed markets,” said Brian Coulton, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings, in a report.

Brazil and India were spotlighted as examples of unfair trade practices in a White House fact sheet.

Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18 percent levy, compared to the U.S. rate of 2.5 percent. “As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while the U.S. exported only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil,” the document stated.

India, meanwhile, imposes a 100 percent tariff on U.S. motorcycles. Conversely, the United States adds a 2.4 percent levy on Indian motorcycles, the White House said.

Countries Offering Concessions

A Bank of America report showed that the United States has the lowest trade barrier of any Group of 20 (G20) nations; the world’s largest economies.

“We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on March 28.

However, he said many countries are willing to make concessions and he didn’t rule out making deals with those countries.

“It’s possible if we can get something for the deal,” Trump said. “I’m certainly open to that.”

Some countries have already begun offering concessions. On April 1, Israel announced that it will remove all remaining tariffs on American products.

Prior to his long-awaited reciprocal tariff roll out, Trump has threatened to impose levies on friends and foes alike.

During the campaign trail and shortly after winning the election, the president said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that engage in anti-dollar activities.

He also threatened 25 percent tariffs on Colombian agricultural products over a short-lived spat involving President Gustavo Petro’s refusal to accept its nationals deported from the United States. Trump rescinded the levies once Petro caved and accepted his citizens.

After Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to cut off electricity flowing from the Canadian province to several U.S. states, Trump stated he would double tariffs on Canada. He reversed the decision after Ford confirmed he would not shut off the power or add taxes to electricity exports.

Trump recently revealed that he plans to announce tariffs on lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

A car hauler truck makes its way to the Ambassador Bridge to cross into Detroit from Windsor, Canada, on April 1, 2025. President Donald Trump has been referring to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when his administration will begin implementing sweeping new tariffs on goods imported into the United States from other countries. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Days after implementing a blanket 25 percent tariff on cars and light trucks manufactured outside the United States, the president stated that he doesn’t care if automakers raise car prices for Americans.

If prices on foreign automobiles increase, customers will shift their buying preferences to American-made vehicles, he said.

“I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty,” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker.

He added that higher prices would bolster U.S.-based manufacturers.

“If you make your car in the United States, you’re going to make a lot of money,” the president said. “If you don’t, you’re going to have to probably come to the United States, because if you make your car in the United States, there is no tariff.”

Auto tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 3 and will be permanent.

Various individuals have been integral in crafting the president’s tariff plans.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on March 31 that Vice President JD Vance has been “deeply involved” in trade discussions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, White House economist Kevin Hassett, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and senior counselor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro, have all contributed to shaping the tariff regime.

“All of these individuals have presented plans to the president on how to get this done, and it’s the president’s decision to make,” Leavitt said.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 1, 2025. Stocks opened up low as the market reacts to President Donald Trump’s April 2 expected proposal for a round of new tariffs. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Tariffs Fuel Market Volatility

Financial markets have wiped out trillions of dollars in value over the last several weeks. Investors fear that tariffs will revive inflation and slow economic growth—surveys suggest the United States could slip into a recession.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 5 percent in March. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1 percent last month. The broader S&P 500 has trimmed 3 percent to finish the first quarter.

Gold prices have extended their gains from last year, reaching a record high of $3,100 per ounce. The yellow metal gained 19 percent in the first quarter, fueled by strengthening safe-haven demand amid market turmoil.

U.S. Treasury yields have slumped since reaching a mid-January peak as traders concentrate on the economy’s long-term prospects.

The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen about 65 basis points to below 4.16 percent.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a metric of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has declined 4 percent this year. Tariffs and structural changes have fueled the recent weakness.

Uncertainty has been a sizable force behind the enormous volatility but April 2 should resolve some of the anxieties plaguing investors, says Jeffrey Buchbinder, the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

“April 2 is a big day for the stock market,” Buchbinder said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “There will still be trade policy uncertainty after that date but the Trump administration is expected to clear up some of the biggest questions investors have right now.”

Hours before President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs—threatening to unleash a global trade war on what he has called “Liberation Day”—the Chinese Communist Party is already preparing a financial counteroffensive. 

Bloomberg cites people familiar with the matter who say Beijing plans to restrict local companies from investing in the United States. This move would give the world’s second-largest economy more economic leverage in trade negotiations as Sino-U.S. tensions deteriorate.

Here’s more from the report:

Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the U.S., the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

. . .

There’s no sign that existing commitments by Chinese companies in the U.S. and elsewhere, or China’s purchases and holdings of financial products including U.S. Treasuries, would be affected, the people said. It’s unclear what prompted the NDRC to halt the processing of applications or how long this suspension might last.

The economic decoupling between the U.S. and China continues to accelerate, driven by trade wars and President Trump, who believes, as he said over the weekend to NBC: “The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more … and all we’re doing is being fair.”

Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs and China’s reported move to restrict outbound investment from local companies into the U.S. signals a new phase of superpower decoupling. This decoupling has been happening across multiple areas:

• Technology 

• Capital Flows

• Trade  

Goldman analyst Chloe Garber commented on the BBG report, noting:

BBG reported this morning that China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. Simply put – there are a lot of unknowns here still and mkts hate the uncertainty.

With just hours to go before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement—expected around 4 p.m.—here’s everything you need to know to stay on top of the tariff news cycle (read: here).

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“I have also to announce to Congress that during the night and the early hours of this morning the first of the series of tariffs in force upon the European Continent has taken place. In this case the liberating assault fell upon the coast of France. An immense armada of upwards of 4,000 tariffs, together with several thousand smaller tariffs, crossed the Channel. Massed airborne tariffs have been successfully effected behind the enemy lines, and tariff landings on the beaches are proceeding at various points at the present time… The Americans are sustained by about 11,000 first line tariffs, which can be drawn upon as may be needed for the purposes of the battle. I cannot, of course, commit myself to any particular details. Reports are coming in in rapid succession. So far, the Commanders who are engaged report that everything is proceeding according to plan. And what a plan! This vast operation is undoubtedly the most complicated and difficult that has ever taken place. It involves tides, wind, waves, visibility, both from the air and the sea standpoint, and the combined employment of land, air and sea tariffs in the highest degree of intimacy and in contact with conditions which could not and cannot be fully foreseen.”

Apologies to Winston Churchill for misusing his D-Day speech: “We shall tariff on the beaches, we shall tariff on the landing grounds, we shall tariff in the fields and in the streets, we shall tariff in the hills; we shall never surrender,” would have been snappier, but historically, the above is the correct one for today.

Because it’s T-day, or “Liberation Day”, or Make America Wealthy Again (MAWA) Day. That’s all we know so far. One rumor is we may get a 20% universal tariff, which would say a lot about ‘state’ and not so much about ‘craft’; or a targeted scheme; that may or may not then be negotiated down. We all still have to wait and see. (Of course tomorrow we start 25% US auto tariffs, on which please see our latest report.)

Ahead of that last-second US decision, last-minute countermoves are being made. Israel (where not much work was needed) and Vietnam (where more was) have both cut all their tariffs on US goods in the hope of a better outcome, and India is reportedly considering the same. Europe (and Canada and Mexico) are instead preparing to fight back, the former even floating escalation into new areas like services and tech that will surely guarantee a furious US response.

The Wall Street Journal hopes tariff clarity today will calm markets, and that’s the White House view too. However, then we all have to wait and see what happens re: counter-tariffs, which seem inevitable –Europe is talking in suitably Churchillian terms again– and then what the US does in the trade space in response, and outside it to those who don’t see trade is now connected to things like US security umbrellas. In short, we need to quote Winnie again: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Yet while D-Day was a very brave and uncertain exercise, the underlying dynamic of US and Soviet military production vs. German and Japanese made the ultimate outcome of WW2 inevitable, just as the ideological split between the US and the Soviets would always then split the world in a different way afterwards. You can’t focus on just one front, no matter how dramatic, but always need to see the entire theatre of operations.

Place US tariffs in the context of a ‘grand macro strategy’ to retain global hegemony as it is now massively outproduced by China, which is allied with Russia and Iran, and you can again see the risks: global bifurcation that makes any one US tariff like a pebble on a Normandy beach.

Economic models that project the rest of the world trading more with each other in the absence of the US market are just that – models. The actual world economy will not work like that. As such, if the US goes it alone today, it implies certain uncertainty; and if it tries to lever others to join it against China, it implies different but equally certain uncertainty. That’s as:

• China just rehearsed encircling and blockading Taiwan again with more ships and jets. Recall the US Department of Defence memo leak said this is now its national security focus. Europe’s Von der Leyen, talking about fighting on the beaches vs the US tariffs, said nothing, but has spoken very bluntly on this in the past: but what would the EU do in a worst-case scenario if it’s also preparing to fight Russia and shooting back in a US trade war?
• Russia won’t accept US peace proposals on Ukraine in their current form; the US may impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil or even interdict the shadow fleet operating out of the Baltic as a response.
• The US CENTCOM chief was in Tel Aviv for 10-hour discussions, as the Pentagon orders more firepower to the Middle East. Russia says bombing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure “will have repercussions for the entire region.” And, depending on what Iran might do to others under any attack, not only for that region.
• US National Security Advisor Waltz, with the Signal scandal still swirling round him, is accused of conducting government business over his personal Gmail account. Is this a shotgun to his own foot, again, or friendly fire? How much longer will Waltz be around, and who might replace him if he goes?

Even the current data are uncertain. After yesterday’s US ISM data showing weak new orders and employment and a surge in prices paid, the Atlanta Fed now sees US GDP in Q1 at -3.7%. It’s not as bad stripping out recent gold imports, or all the other imports surging into the US to front-run tariffs. But it isn’t good.

Once again, central banks have no idea what to do and are clearly just hoping for the best. The Fed’s Goolsbee warned about a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment due to tariff uncertainty, which he sees may have a longer-lasting impact on prices than expected due to retaliatory tariffs and their effect on intermediate goods. That sounds like a long way to say “stagflation.”

Meanwhile, Eric and Donald Trump, Jr. launched a Bitcoin mining firm and talked crypto up. Is this all-American speculation, Trumpian grifting, or a signal on a future US policy pivot towards a neutral reserve asset? Moreover, gold prices hit a new nominal record high of $3,133, up 37.5% over a year in which some were/are still thinking about “rate cuts!” If that doesn’t underline the structural uncertainty we are dealing with, not a lot does.

Let’s finish by paraphrasing Winston once more: markets are drunk on uncertainty today, and tomorrow they may be sober, but the global backdrop will still be ugly.

Allow me to add: “By diligent effort, they must learn to like it.”

This morning Tesla announced Q1 deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, falling below even the lowest expectations that Wall Street had set for the automaker and marking a -13% plunge in deliveries from the year prior period. 

In its press release, Tesla said “the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1,” but then added that “the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well.”

While FactSet’s consensus forecast projected 408,000 Q1 Tesla deliveries—a 5% year-over-year increase—recent signals suggested a decline instead. Wall Street consensus estimates reported by Reuters had expected Tesla to report roughly 373,000 vehicle deliveries for Q1—down 3.6% from the same period the previous year.

Some analysts, however, believed the actual figure might be closer to 350,000 or lower.  Major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS cut estimates to between 351,000 and 375,000. Prediction market Kalshi expected 353,000, marking a 9% drop. 

No one had a number in the 330k region. 

The company reported 12,881 deliveries of its other models, including its Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank had predicted as few as 340,000 deliveries, while Tesla’s declining sales in key markets like China and Europe further fueled skepticism.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Tesla shareholder Globalt Investments had told Reuters: “I think that the numbers are going to come in below 400,000 and, maybe as low as 350,000.”

After Tesla’s first annual delivery drop in 2024, Elon Musk vowed a return to growth. Wall Street was closely watching whether Model Y updates and new incentives would help.

Tesla faces both growing competition abroad and backlash at home, particularly over Musk’s political ties and role in federal spending cuts under President Trump. This has alienated many left-leaning customers, with trade-ins hitting record highs.

“We have seen major brand deterioration of Tesla across the entire world essentially,” said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, told Reuters earlier today.

“The brand has become far more politicized than any public company’s brand should wish to be.”

The only question now is whether Tesla has “kitchen sinked” this quarter to try and post a better looking rest of the year, as it has already been reported that Elon Musk will likely move on from DOGE and back to the company heading into the middle of 2025…

A bipartisan group of US senators have prepared an anti-Russia sanctions nuclear option in the case that Moscow refuses to sign on to Trump efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.

The 50 Republicans and Democrats which introduced the sanctions package Tuesday are led by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, and their bill would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and several other products. American citizens would also be prohibited from buying Russian sovereign debt.

“The sanctions against Russia require tariffs on countries who purchase Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. They are hard hitting for a reason,” the Senators wrote in a Tuesday statement.

“These sanctions against Russia are at the ready and will receive overwhelming bipartisan, bicameral support if presented to the Senate and House for a vote,” they added.

“The dominating view in the United States Senate is that Russia is the aggressor, and that this horrific war and Putin’s aggression must end now and be deterred in the future.”

This in part springs from growing concern that despite President Trump’s good-faith efforts, even dangling the possibility of dropping sanctions to get the Kremlin quickly to the negotiating table, Moscow is intentionally stalling while it presses the war forward.

President Trump told reporters over the weekend aboard Air Force one of Putin and his officials, “If I think they’re tapping us along, I will not be happy about it.”

China and India would come under the immediate crosshairs, as they’ve remained top importers of Russian oil since the start of the Ukraine war.

However, the bill leaves open the option of granting presidential waivers on national security grounds, with Bloomberg pointing to the likely chance of a “confrontation” with India and China over the secondary sanctions and the “difficult position” the EU has found itself in.

In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap Russian energy is ever-present, and as we noted, senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are “completely out of date” as they increasingly openly contradict “what the Americans are doing.”

Financial Times in a report quoted Kretschmer’s words to the German press agency DPA as follows: “When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right.”

50 US Senators have introduced a bill that includes the most intense Russia sanctions to date including a 500% (!) additional tariff on any countries buying Russian hydrocarbons & uranium, putting SWIFT into law, and perma-freezing Russian sovereign debt & securities. Wow. pic.twitter.com/Mg8hJIN1oY

— Maximilian Hess (@zakavkaza) April 2, 2025

At the same time, Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas – after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st – but are actually boosting these supplies.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity this week due to the stoppage through Ukraine.

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Internal FBI chat logs revealed that the bureau imposed a “gag order” on agents regarding the New York Post bombshell story on the Hunter Biden laptop. Along with showing Hunter’s depravity, the laptop revealed Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings. 

The chat logs, published Tuesday by the House Judiciary Committee on X, show that the gag order extended to an FBI analyst who attempted to alert social media companies that the laptop was authentic—before these companies moved to censor the story’s spread. 

The FBI had Hunter Biden’s laptop, but on the day the NY Post story came out, the FBI refused to tell Big Tech the truth.

— House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025

On Oct. 14, 2020, the New York Post released its first story on the laptop’s content. That same day, FBI officials instructed agents, “please do not discuss Biden matter.” 

Earlier chats show a group of agents—including Laura Dehmlow, Bradley Benavides and James Dennehy—debating the Post’s story.

“You guys are tracking the coverage of the laptop right?” Dehmlow wrote. Both Benavides and Dennehy replied affirmatively. 

Later, agents whose names remain sealed sent messages stating, “right answer – nobody on call is is [sic] authorized to comment upon NY Post story” and “nobody [is] authorized to comment.” 

One agent asked if another had “admonished” the colleague who nearly revealed the laptop’s authenticity to Big Tech companies. “yes but he wont [sic] shut up,” one response read. 

Hours later, agents reiterated that they were forbidden from commenting on the laptop story, with messages like “official response no commen [sic] and “we cannot comment.” 

A previous transcribed interview with Dehmlow revealed that during a Zoom meeting with Big Tech, an FBI agent was interrupted before he could confirm the laptop was real and already in the bureau’s possession. 

The FBI had verified the laptop in 2019 by cross-referencing its serial number with Hunter’s iCloud storage, FBI special agent Erika Jensen stated during Hunter’s criminal trial in 2024. 

Despite this verification, the bureau remained silent while social media companies debated whether the Post’s story was tied to a Russian disinformation campaign.

Notably, the FBI had warned them weeks earlier of an imminent “hack-and-leak” story about the 2020 election, leading many to mistakenly equate that warning with the laptop exposé. 

The laptop revealed that while Hunter failed to pay millions in taxes, he also consumed drugs, paid for prostitutes and launched what Republicans call an “influence-peddling scheme” aimed at selling access—or at least the appearance of access—to Joe Biden in exchange for payments. 

According to the laptop, 10% of these payments were earmarked for the “Big Guy,” a term confirmed by former Biden ally Devon Archer to refer to Joe Biden. 

Biden went on to win the 2020 election, and before leaving office in 2025, he issued sweeping pardons to his siblings and Hunter, covering offenses committed between 2014 and 2025.

Read the full House Judiciary Committee’s X thread on the chatlogs:

The Committee had testimony from key FBI personnel, but until now, the FBI refused to produce the internal communications from that day in unclassified form for the American public to see. pic.twitter.com/I5uGnJICVM

— House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025

The internal FBI chat log also shows how far senior FBI officials went to silence this analyst.

After the meeting, a senior FBI lawyer put a “gag order” on the analyst. pic.twitter.com/9AzXIl565B

— House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025

Despite the ongoing strength in jobless claims data, fears are growing in the soft data that Friday’s payrolls print might be a game-changer. Today, we get a glimpse of what’s possible as, following last month’s ‘weak’ report, ADP’s Employment shows the US economy added 155k jobs in March (more than the 120k expected and almost double the 77k added in February)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, once again, the soft data and constant mainstream narrative of recession is crushed by the hard data.

“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

Is it just us, or can you sense the disappointment in her statement that the US economy didn’t implode?

Service industry jobs showed a major rebound from weakness in February while goods-producing job additions slowed…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturers added 21k jobs in March – the biggest addition since Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The other piece of ‘good’ news is that wage growth slowed for both job-stayers and job-changers…

Source: Bloomberg

So much for runaway inflationary pressure and recessionary labor market stagnation… and the surge in manufacturing jobs suggests Trump’s plan is working?

Is Trump’s plan to reshore manufacturing already working: biggest increase in manufacturing jobs since October 22, which was followed by a 2 year manufacturing recession. pic.twitter.com/7iyA11BSRr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 2, 2025