In a new note out by Canaccord, the firm reiterates its BUY rating on USA Rare Earth and raises its price target to $32 from $29, arguing that the company is rapidly emerging as a cornerstone of a Western rare earth supply chain at a time when geopolitical urgency around reducing dependence on China is intensifying. Shares are already up about 50% over the past week and currently sit around $25:

The analysts frame the industry as a kind of “strategic chess match,” with the U.S. racing to build domestic and allied capacity, and position USA Rare Earth as one of the few companies attempting to build a fully integrated, end-to-end platform spanning mining through magnet production.

The centerpiece of the note is the company’s planned $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde in Brazil, which Canaccord describes as a “tectonic” move. The asset includes the Pela Ema operation, currently the only scaled producer outside Asia of all four key magnetic rare earth elements—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

As we noted days ago Serra Verde’s asset is especially valuable because it can supply key magnet materials—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—which are critical for high-performance permanent magnets. The mine is also backed by a long-term offtake agreement tied to U.S. government-related entities, covering 100% of production for those four elements.

Beyond simply adding volume, the deal gives USA Rare Earth meaningful exposure to heavy rare earths, which are the most supply-constrained and strategically valuable parts of the market. By 2027, Serra Verde is expected to represent more than half of non-China heavy rare earth supply, making it arguably the most important Western asset in the space.

Canaccord emphasizes that the acquisition is not just about scale but about accelerating the company’s path to profitability and securing feedstock for its downstream magnet ambitions. The combined company would span the full value chain—from mining at Serra Verde and Round Top, to separation through Carester, to metals and alloys via Less Common Metals, and ultimately to magnet manufacturing in the U.S.

The firm sees this vertical integration as critical to competing with China, which still dominates roughly 70% of mining and over 90% of processing and magnet production globally.

A major highlight of the note is the 15-year offtake agreement tied to Serra Verde’s Phase 1 production, which is backed by a special purpose vehicle funded in part by U.S. government entities. This agreement secures 100% of initial output and, importantly, includes price floors for both light and heavy rare earths—around $110/kg for Nd/Pr, $575/kg for dysprosium, and $2,050/kg for terbium.

Canaccord views this as a first-of-its-kind structure that effectively de-risks revenues while still allowing USA Rare Earth to capture upside if market prices exceed those levels. The analysts estimate the contract alone could generate more than $346 million in annual revenue from magnetic rare earths under floor pricing assumptions, with additional contribution from other elements like yttrium.

Financially, the note points to a dramatic inflection ahead. Revenue is projected to scale from essentially negligible levels today to over $1 billion by 2027 and roughly $1.3 billion by 2028, with earnings turning positive as early as 2026. Serra Verde is expected to be a major driver, potentially generating around $600 million of EBITDA by 2027 under an oxide production scenario, with total company EBITDA reaching as much as $1.8 billion by 2030.

The analysts also highlight a strong pro forma liquidity position of roughly $3.2 billion following the transaction and associated government support, which should help fund the buildout of the broader platform.

Stepping back, Canaccord’s core argument is that USA Rare Earth is transitioning from an asset aggregation story to an execution story, having assembled what it views as a unique portfolio of strategically important assets across multiple continents. While the firm acknowledges there is still significant operational work ahead to bring these assets fully online, it sees meaningful upside as production ramps, margins expand, and the company solidifies its role as a primary Western supplier of both light and heavy rare earth materials.

The full note is available at the usual place for Premium subscribers. 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise.

As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended closure of Hormuz (in the range of 2-4 weeks). However, the likelihood of escalation to achieve that de-escalation is very high, which risks more energy supply damage.

Trump just unilaterally and indefinitely extended the ceasefire, “based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured,” which the Iranians didn’t request, but Pakistan did. In the Middle East, making a threat and not following through smacks of weakness, and will be noted (again) by Tehran’s hardliners. He added US attacks would be held off “until such time as their leadership and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.” That’s as a Saudi tweet claimed Ghalibaf and Pezeskhian, willing to negotiate with Trump, have been arrested by the IRGC.

If true, that points to a unified Iranian position of defiance. That would then require a US response – either an attack or a 1956 Suez Crisis retreat. Of course, Iran may be incapable of a unified answer until its factions turn on each other (which is likely part of the US strategy) – that would also suggest the need for a US attack, to ‘shake the box’. Or this ceasefire extension can be a US deception as its forces continue to fly or sail into the region.

Meanwhile, the US economic blockade of Iran and the de facto Iranian blockade of Hormuz remain in place: critical energy and goods are not going to flow for longer, with exponentially rising economic damage. Indeed, the US says it will ramp up Operation ‘Economic Fury’ at sea and via sanctions. Iran claims it will break its blockade by force, if it persists, which would of course lead us straight to an escalation again.

Importantly, the threat of an extended throttling of Hormuz will increase the global pressure to act. On one hand, US allies might do something, though this seems unlikely. On the other, China may have to given it has already stated it wants Hormuz to reopen.

Looked at like this, there is nothing for markets to savor about a ‘chicken TACO Tuesday’. Indeed, screen oil prices only softened a little in response to the US ceasefire extension, and the price of physical oil and products in Asia will continue to rise unless Hormuz reopens.

Yet it’s undeniable the extended ceasefire also points towards a true TACO, which we’ve long made clear would be a geopolitical earthquake on par with the 1956 Suez Crisis. Were that to occur, it might be bearish for energy but could leave Iran in charge of Hormuz, which is less so; or Israel in charge of removing Iran from Hormuz, so far less so. Moreover, it would be it would be bearish for lots of assets markets don’t yet envision.

This is as Trump says a proposed currency swap with the UAE — which is pegged to the dollar– is under consideration, with some suggestions China will step in if not. That such an economy might need a dollar facility says a lot about the new world (dis)order that is emerging.

In parallel to Iran, Israel and Hezbollah’s ceasefire is holding on by its fingernails. Lebanon’s PM says his government will not let Hezbollah “intimidate us” – which lack of government actions shows it clearly does; and top US senators are calling to halt aid to Lebanon’s army over its failed Hezbollah disarmament efforts.

Things are also fluid –but not flowing– on other geopolitical fronts. Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again – as Russia halted Kazakhstan’s oil flows to Germany via it, worsening its energy crisis.

The €90bn EU loan to Ukraine may now proceed, with Kyiv expected to spend the bulk of it on US Patriots, UK Storm Shadows and its own drones – which will be used to hit Russian oil refineries based on the recent heuristic. Yet Ukraine is reportedly proposing naming part of the disputed Donbas region to ‘Donnyland’ in Trump’s honor, not Von der Leyen-land.

At the same time the EU is trying to ease new tensions with Turkey, which also hosts energy pipelines leading to it, after VDL used a media interview to name the EU neighbour alongside Russia and China as threats to Europe requiring Brussels to ‘Complete the continent.” To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, “To lose one key NATO ally may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.”

Meanwhile, as the Middle East and Russian energy complexes are mired in war, a key trader warns of a looming global food shock due to a squeeze on fertilizers; the EU is looking to revive joint gas buying as energy fears mount, which critics say will make little difference; Brussels said we should keep flying despite a looming fuel shortage as “Fears of widespread cancellations are overblown” – as Lufthansa axed 20,000 ‘unprofitable’ flights to save jet fuel; and EU lawmakers urged the Parliament to halt its monthly trip to Strasbourg over energy costs.

So, to central banks. See our US strategist Philip Marey’s take on Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing here, but note he had a tough time, reflecting how much political economy has shifted in the past few years. (Recall “Maestro’ Greenspan, anyone?)

Senator Warren called Warsh President Trump’s “sock puppet.” Then there were a series of questions over Warsh’s wealth, and the extent to which it was tied to Trump, Druckenmiller, China, or Epstein. That’s before we got to actual central banking, which was also disputed.

Warsh had to underline that he backs Fed independence. Yet he thinks interest rates rather than the balance sheet should be the dominant tool of monetary policy, because the distributional effects of the latter favoured the rich, while the more pervasive effects of the former reached everybody. That statement undoes most of the post-GFC central bank strategy.

Warsh also said he wants to work with the Treasury Secretary to see how the Fed can reduce the balance sheet and get out of fiscal policy. That’s as the Pentagon budget is about to increase by 40% and the Treasury is extending its reach into other areas as part of US economic statecraft.

Moreover, while there was some Q&A around the impact of the Iran war on inflation, there was no revealed view on how the Fed can keep CPI low if physical supply constraints matter, from oil to AI to the military; nor what to do if those constraints extend into the geopolitical realm, both in terms of freely-perceived problems and politesse-free solutions. Saying ‘That’s not my job,’ is not how economic statecraft works.

There was also a short discussion of crypto, which Warsh backed: and US dollar stablecoins are potential US economic statecraft, as we have previously explained. Yet there were no questions about political swaplines, perhaps because the Treasury is also muscling in on that territory of late(?)

Oil prices are modestly higher this morning, erasing overnight losses on Trump’s ‘ceasefire extension’ after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

While headline roulette continues to drive oil prices incrementally, this morning’s inventory/supply data from DOE will provide some color on how the

API

• Crude -4.5mm

• Cushing +700k

• Gasoline -5.2mm

• Distillates -4.6mm

DOE

• Crude +1.925mm

• Cushing +806k

• Gasoline -4.57mm – 10th weekly draw in a row

• Distillates -3.43mm – 4th weekly draw in a row

Crude stocks unexpectedly saw a build last week (after a draw the week before) as did Cushing inventories. However, on the product side, the sizable drawdowns continue…

Source: Bloomberg

Since the war started, Crude stocks have risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws…

Source: Bloomberg

Weekly US implied gasoline demand is holding up despite elevated prices. The 4-week moving average indicate a slight rise of 32,000 barrels per day, while the more volatile weekly data series ticked down by 33,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, US average gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon. It was near $3 a gallon right before the Iran war. 

Source: Bloomberg

The crude inventory build was more than offset by a huge 4.14mm barrel drawdown from the SPR…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production dipped once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, total US oil product exports accelerated to a new record high last week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains for now, near yesterday’s highs around $92…

Finally, as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts and commodities trading company executives are expressing shock at what they call a disconnect between market pricing and reality.

Prices of the most-active Brent futures contract are holding below $100 a barrel despite escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Just today, two attacks on ships in the waterway showed that the fight for control of the strait continues and spooked shipowners and crew members. Here’s what I’m hearing from experts and industry leaders at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland:

“The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future,” said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. Price discovery refers to the process of buyers and sellers determining the fair price of a good or an asset in the futures market.

“Futures prices are meant to do the job of giving signals to sort out supply and demand. We are doing the opposite,” she said in a panel.

In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the market didn’t experience nearly as large a physical disruption as this time, and yet oil prices went much higher and stayed between $110 and $125 a barrel for months, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Swiss commodity trader Trafigura, at the conference yesterday.

“This time, the scale seems to be something where the market cannot get its head around it, and therefore it says, we are not going to think about it.”

The world is already losing an average of 10 million barrels a day of crude oil and 5 million barrels a day of oil products. Hits to the world’s supply of fertilizers and chemicals are also severe.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Online interactive gaming platform Roblox has agreed to settle with West Virginia, Alabama, and Nevada for a combined $35.78 million, committing to strengthen children’s safety through measures such as mandatory age verification and chat restrictions.

Roblox reached an $11.08 million settlement with West Virginia. In an April 21 statement, the office of West Virginia Attorney General John B. McCuskey said that Roblox has agreed to “major child safety overhaul.” The settlement came after an investigation conducted by the office found that the platform exposed child users to sexual predators, sexual and violent content, and grooming risks.

McCuskey said there were “serious failures that left children exposed to real danger.”

Under the agreement, Roblox will verify the ages of all users before allowing chat access. This is expected to limit instances of adults contacting minors and reduce the risk of grooming. The company will block all chat until users verify their age, seeking to reduce the use of anonymous accounts by predators to target children.

Once age verification is complete, adults can contact under-16 users only through verified trusted friends, according to the statement. The accounts of all under-16 users will, by default, run on safe content mode, which will reportedly block out adult-rated material.

Roblox has also committed to recruiting an internet safety specialist in West Virginia. The settlement funds will be paid over several years.

“I have two young daughters who love Roblox, so I know how popular it is,” McCuskey said. “I am thankful that Roblox took our concerns seriously and worked with us to make these major safety changes.”

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall announced in an April 21 statement that the state has reached a $12.2 million settlement with Roblox.

Under the deal, Roblox has agreed to verify the age of users and restrict content accordingly, use facial estimation technology and government ID to verify users, and utilize behavioral monitoring to identify those whose ages may have been recorded incorrectly.

“Roblox will not allow communication involving minors to be encrypted. Unencrypted communication allows law enforcement to be able to more easily combat child exploitation networks, trafficking, and the distribution of illegal and harmful content,” the statement said.

Parents will have expanded control over their child’s use of Roblox, including deciding whom their children can talk to and what games they can play, according to the statement.

“This settlement sends a clear message to every platform operating in this space—you cannot turn a blind eye to the exploitation of children and expect to avoid consequences,” Marshall said.

“Platforms that host child consumers must do their part to give parents a fighting chance to shield their children from harm. While parents will always play the primary role in protecting their children online, we are raising the bar on what we expect from gaming platforms—parents need a partner, not a black box.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Roblox for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Roblox’s deals with West Virginia and Alabama follow an agreement with Nevada announced last week under which the company agreed to pay $10 million.

The company also committed to spending $1 million on a safety awareness campaign targeting users, and $1.5 million on a law enforcement liaison position. The Nevada deal includes commitments similar to those of Alabama.

California-based Roblox, which has about 151.5 million daily active users, is used by “nearly half of the entire U.S. population of children under 16 years old,” Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford said during an April 15 press conference. About 42 percent of Roblox’s users are under 13.

Responding to the Nevada settlement, Roblox Chief Safety Officer Matt Kaufman told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that it disputes the allegations made against the company.

However, “[Roblox is] proud to have worked alongside Attorney General Ford to reach this landmark agreement, which builds on our work to establish a new standard for digital safety,” Kaufman said.

“This resolution creates a blueprint for how industry and regulators can work together to protect the next generation of digital citizens.”

Child Safety Concerns

Activities of the online predator network “764” have been linked to Roblox, with the predators using the platform to communicate with minors. The network is linked to a broader extremist online system that encourages children toward self-harm, suicide, sexual exploitation, and animal abuse.

In December, Iowa announced a lawsuit against Roblox, accusing the platform of being the “perfect environment for child predators, pornographers, scammers, fraudsters, online sex rings, and inappropriate content.”

Roblox allows users to create Lego-like avatars and play various games, called “experiences.”

“Some experiences are at strip clubs, others are at ‘Epstein’s Island,’ where simulated underage sexual activity takes place,” the lawsuit said. “There are also hundreds of experiences just about Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs, who was recently convicted of trafficking and prostitution. … These are just a few of the thousands of examples.”

Other states like Louisiana, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida have also sued Roblox over child safety concerns.

On April 13, Roblox announced age-based accounts and expanded parental controls for users under 16.

Users between the ages of 5 and 8, and 9 to 15, will have separate accounts with stricter adult content censorship.

“All content uploaded to Roblox goes through their existing moderation systems, including AI asset scanning, ongoing user report review, and multimodal moderation that evaluates scenes in real time for potential policy violations,” the company said.

“For content made available to users under 16, they will apply an additional continuous process that dynamically selects games. This process will include developer verification, extended content evaluation and rating, and additional limits on content more suited to older audiences.”

Earlier this year, Robolox became the first online gaming platform to require facial age checks for users in order to access chat.

“Since then, over 50 percent of global and 65 percent of U.S. daily active users have completed an age check,” according to the company.

Child safety advocacy group Enough is Enough criticized Roblox for taking “so long” to institute stringent safety controls to protect children from predators, according to an April 16 statement from the organization.

Enough is Enough questioned the timing of these new measures, highlighting the numerous lawsuits Roblox is facing over child safety concerns.

“Once again, it is clear that nothing motivates tech platforms to protect children online like lawsuits or legislation,” Donna Rice Hughes, CEO of the group, said. “Tech platforms like Roblox must be compelled to do right by children. Congress must take note and pass online child safety solutions.”

When creating a short list of nefarious NGOs that manipulate government policy and socially engineer public opinion, the Southern Poverty Law Center is usually near the top.  The group has been fading in influence due to excessive exposure, with new and less visible left wing NGOs taking it’s place.  However, it remains a key pillar of the Democratic Party’s propaganda machine and a poisonous cloud looming over grassroots conservative organization.

News from the Trump FBI and DOJ indicates that this reign of political terror may finally be coming to an end.  The Southern Poverty Law Center has been indicted on federal fraud charges that accuse it of illegally raising millions of dollars to pay informants in white supremacist and other extremist groups.  

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the SPLC used paid operatives within extremist circles to incite and intensify racial tensions, arguing the group fostered the very threats it claimed to fight.  But why was an NGO allowed to operate like a covert federal agency for so long?

These operations were essentially endorsed by the Democratic Party (as well as some Neo-Cons).

One could say that the SPLC had two missions:  First, to drum up hysteria among weak minded liberals and make them believe that there are malicious “hate groups” under every rock and behind every tree.  Second, to make conservatives paranoid about informants when seeking to build political opposition movements.

Sadly, to this day, the SPLC was rather successful in achieving both goals.  The NGO’s efforts to create a false model of “hate networks” (especially during the Obama years) was a primary impetus for the eventual rise of the woke activist movement from around 2012 onward.  In other words, the insane cult obsessed with race and identity that plagues America today found its roots within the SPLC and their alliance with the Democratic Party.  

SPLC “informants” were a constant nuisance among conservative activist and protest groups as well as preparedness groups.  Nothing these conservatives did was actually illegal, but, the SPLC had a knack for making it sound as if they were engaging in criminality.  Far too many right wingers were frightened into refusing to engage in basic meetings and public discussions, simply on the possibility that SPLC informants might be present. 

No such infiltration was used to target left wing extremist groups like Antifa, which have carried out numerous criminal attacks, riots, sabotage and acts of intimidation against their political opponents.   

But, times change and the truth cannot be suppressed forever.  Conservative and nationalist movements grew exponentially, even if they still suck at organizing formally.  And today, the SPLC is a widely known and rightfully despised entity. 

The SPLC was specifically integral to the Obama and Biden Administrations, including a direct information sharing relationship with the DHS and FBI.  The majority of anti-conservative policy papers published by the federal government during this time were crafted using SPLC propaganda. 

The 2009 DHS Rightwing Extremism Report, a unclassified assessment warning of potential “surges” in right-wing extremism, drew input extensively from SPLC info. The report targeted militia groups as potential homegrown terrorists and was partially withdrawn because of political backlash. 

A separate 2009 state-level fusion center report – the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC) “Modern Militia Movement” report – linked supposedly dangerous militia members to “3rd party political groups” and  “supporters of Ron Paul, Chuck Baldwin, and Bob Barr.” The report flagged symbols like the Gadsden Flag, as well as anti-government, anti-new world order and anti-martial law discussion as potential indicators of homegrown terrorism.  The SPLC was a key participant in the formation of the MIAC report.

SPLC President Richard Cohen served on Secretary Janet Napolitano’s CVE Working Group in 2010. Cohen and an SPLC colleague acted as subject-matter experts on right-wing extremism in the DHS Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Working Group.  Their purpose was to shift federal law enforcement focus almost entirely from Islamic-based terrorism over to right wing extremism. 

Under Biden, the SPLC was highly active in shaping public narratives surrounding the J6 trials.  SPLC staff provided training to DOJ prosecutors and SPLC leaders/staff visited the White House at least 11 times.  President Biden personally met with SPLC representatives at least 6 times.

With the fall of the SPLC, the Democrats lose a vital tool in their social engineering arsenal.  If the accusations turn out to be true and SPLC leaders are convicted, their activities should be considered as treason against the American people.  Any and all NGOs participating in social engineering operations against the US populace must eventually be indicted and erased if the country is ever going to rebuild the public trust, but bringing down the SPLC is a good start.

Summary

• Trump extends ceasefire by 3-5 days, per White House statement to Fox.

• IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today.

• Within hours, a third ship comes under fire by the IRGC.

• Senior Iranian adviser says the US naval blockade is “no different than bombing” and must be met “with a military response”.

*  *  *

Trump Extends Ceasefire for 3-5 Days

The White House has told FOX Wednesday morning that President Trump has extended the ceasefire by three to five days. This was also reported earlier by Axios, with the US seeking for the Iranian side to “come to the table with a unified approach.” There’s a growing assumption within the administration that it might be dealing with two competing factions: a civilian government side in Tehran, and the IRGC.

Tasnim meanwhile reports that Iran has made no decision as of yet to negotiate with the US, amid rumblings that talks could resume Friday. WSJ’s latest commentary:

Singh [former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council who is now at the Washington Institute think tank] warned that the blockade could prove a double-edged sword for Washington, at a time when the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is hurting the world economy and driving up U.S. energy prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“The blockade is a bet that Iran will break before the rest of the world will, but it’s a risky bet,” he said. “The Iranian regime is fighting for its survival and has demonstrated an ability to withstand the strangulation of its oil exports.”

The latest as both warring sides impose rival blockades in Hormuz:

FT: At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa, including several carrying Iranian oil— despite President Trump declaring the barricade a “tremendous success”. https://t.co/G3v3VbHnsA

— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) April 22, 2026

Third Ship Attacked by IRGC

The IRGC on Wednesday attacked a third vessel of the day in the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly escalating tensions further in the dangerous standoff. The container ship Francesca, owned by Mediterranean Shipping, was targeted while waiting to enter.

“An Iranian gunboat fired on a containership northeast of Oman, before a second vessel reported being fired at off the coast of Iran,” according to WSJ. “Then the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a third ship. The incidents within hours of each other demonstrate that while the aerial war between the U.S. and Iran is on pause, the fight for control of the strait continues.” The same publication offers the following outline summary of where things stand on the diplomatic front:

• A senior Iranian adviser said the U.S. naval blockade is “no different than bombing” and must be met “with a military response.”
• Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. said his country is ready to negotiate with the U.S. once it ends the blockade.
• Britain will host military planners from more than 30 countries for two days of talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz starting Wednesday.

Iran Seizes Two Ships In Hormuz

The semi-official news agency Fars reports on X that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. In total, three ships were targeted this morning by IRGC naval forces, and two were seized.

“The IRGC Navy seized two violating vessels and transferred them to Iran’s coast. IRGC Navy Command: Disruption of order and safety in the Strait of Hormuz is our red line,” Fars said, adding that both vessels had been “immobilized.”

نیروی دریایی سپاه دو کشتی متخلف را توقیف و به ساحل ایران منتقل کرد

فرماندهی نیروی دریایی سپاه: اخلال در نظم و ایمنی تنگه هرمز خط قرمز ماست pic.twitter.com/LyhPFqGMwV

— خبرگزاری تسنیم (@Tasnimnews_Fa) April 22, 2026

Earlier, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center reported that the two vessels had come under heavy fire in the narrow waterway.

Current snapshot of the waterway via Bloomberg ship-tracking data of tankers:

All three maritime incidents in the Strait come as President Trump has kept the U.S. blockade of Iran in Hormuz in place, and U.S. naval forces seized an Iranian ship over the weekend before boarding another tanker linked to Iran.

Related:

• Tehran Timeline: Iran Has 15 Days Until Its Oil Industry Begins Full Shut-Ins

Overnight, Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran so negotiators “can come up with a unified proposal,” but said the naval blockade will continue, while Tehran says it is an “act of war.”

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim cited the country’s envoy to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, as telling reporters: “We have received some sign that they are ready to break it and as soon as they break this blockade, I think that the next round of the negotiations will take place in Islamabad.”

Iravani added, “If they want to sit at the table and discuss and find a political solution, they will find us ready. If they want to go to war, in this case also Iran is ready.” The status of the next round of US-Iran talks remains unclear. Vice President JD Vance has not departed for Pakistan as expected on Tuesday.

More Latest Regional Developments

via Newsquawk…

Via RFE/RL,

• Global trade is shifting away from vulnerable maritime chokepoints toward overland routes like the Middle Corridor amid rising geopolitical instability

• A $3.3 billion World Bank-backed investment push aims to address infrastructure gaps and unlock the corridor’s long-term potential

• While promising, the route still faces major capacity and coordination constraints before it can rival established northern trade flows

While diplomatic efforts struggle to stabilize access to the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions between the United States and Iran, Eurasian trade is increasingly being redirected toward overland alternatives, with the Trans-Caspian Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, emerging as a key diversification route in Eurasian logistics.

The World Bank described the Middle Corridor back in 2023 as a strategically important but structurally constrained route. While geopolitical fragmentation, driven in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine, has increased the demand for alternative corridors, the World Bank emphasized that the corridor’s long-term viability requires coordinated investment, the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks, and improved cross-border customs and transport procedures.

To address these roadblocks, the World Bank and its partners on April 14–15 committed $3.3 billion to strengthening key missing links along the corridor, including $1.9 billion for Turkey’s Istanbul North Rail Crossing and a $1.4 billion investment in the reconstruction of Kazakhstan’s Karagandy–Zhezkazgan highway.

On the same day that this was announced, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Y?lmaz underscored the importance of such investment at a meeting in Astana.

“The Northern Corridor [through Russia] has become unpredictable due to geopolitical tensions. The southern route is pushing the limits of its capacity,” he said.

“This situation has made the Middle Corridor not an alternative but a mandatory choice.”

Dosym Satpayev, director of the Risk Assessment Group in Almaty — an independent think tank analyzing political risks, corruption, and foreign policy processes in the region — says that Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions deepened global dependence on maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. but the current crisis has potentially long-term consequences for global trade.

“Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, I believe that the image of it as a stable transport and logistics route has been damaged for many years, if not permanently,” Satpayev said.

“The same applies to the stereotype that the Persian Gulf and Middle Eastern countries can guarantee stable supplies of energy resources and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Uncertainty is already reshaping global pricing and trade behavior, he added, saying that a “risk premium” will most likely be embedded in prices of oil and nitrogen fertilizers.

“About 25–35 percent of global fertilizer supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and this will inevitably be reflected in final prices. Therefore, many countries will seek to diversify routes regardless of how the situation develops. Most likely, instability will persist for a long time, which means risks will remain high. And this is bad for business, because business needs predictability.”

A Region Surrounded By Geopolitical Chaos

A key factor behind the growing appeal of the Middle Corridor, Satpayev says, is the relative stability of the regions it passes through. Despite the conflicts raging nearby, Central Asia and the Caucasus have “demonstrated stability in the conditions of geopolitical chaos.”

“This has increased interest in it as a platform for transport and logistics projects,” he said. “As a result, the region’s status at the global level has risen.”

The Middle Corridor suits everyone, he added, except Russia.

“We see that major geopolitical players are seeking to strengthen their positions in the region, primarily in the economic and transport-logistics spheres. China and the European Union are particularly active,” Satpayev said.

“The Samarkand summit last year demonstrated the EU’s interest in developing the Middle Corridor, including investments in hubs around the Caspian Sea. The United States is also showing interest in the Middle Corridor, as it seeks access to critical materials and rare earth metals in Central Asia.”

However, some analysts caution that the Middle Corridor is not yet capable of fully replacing existing trade routes, especially the northern land route via Russia.

Central Asia analyst Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that while geopolitical narratives increasingly favor diversification, the physical and logistical realities of trade still impose clear constraints.

“The Middle Corridor, however interesting and potentially ambitious it may appear, is not yet developed to a level where it can replace the northern flows through Russia,” Umarov said. “The issue is not a lack of interest in the Middle Corridor, but the simple fact that it is technically impossible, for now, to reroute the entire flow of goods and energy resources through it instead of the existing northern routes.”

He adds that this structural limitation is not only about infrastructure gaps, but about time and scale.

“From a practical perspective, it is still too early to expect the Middle Corridor to absorb full trade volumes. It will require sustained investment, coordination between multiple countries, and years of development before it can operate at the scale of established northern routes.”

What Does The Middle Corridor Mean For Kazakhstan?

For Kazakhstan, the significance of the World Bank-backed highway project extends beyond infrastructure financing. It signals the country’s growing role as a central transit hub in a rapidly evolving Eurasian logistics landscape, one increasingly defined not only by geography but by geopolitics, risk diversification, and the search for resilient trade routes.

If Central Asian governments manage the process effectively, investments in the Middle Corridor could also translate into tangible benefits for ordinary people in the region, Satpayev maintains.

“Infrastructure such as railways and roads, especially given the size of Kazakhstan, can revive certain regions that are economically depressed,” he said. “From the perspective of building hotels, gas stations, services, and maintenance infrastructure, this can create a multiplier effect that gives such regions a second life.”

He added that this potential is not automatic but depends on governance and implementation quality.

“There’s hope that if this is implemented under the supervision of investors and international organizations financing these projects, it will also to some extent improve the well-being of citizens in our countries.”

The Middle Corridor, formally the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, was established in 2014 by Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to connect China and Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, with onward links through Turkey. For years, it remained secondary to the Russian-led northern route.

The corridor is supported by a mix of multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, EBRD, and ADB, alongside EU funding initiatives and major state-led investments from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, with China acting as a key trade driver through its Belt and Road connectivity.

We knew there was a reason why China had accumulated a cool 1.5 billion barrels in its strategic petroleum reserve: the reason, to become the world’s strategist petroleum reserve when the time arises… for a price of course.

According to the chief executive officer of commodity trader Mercuria, Chinese oil companies have been aggressive sellers in recent weeks, selling barrels to several nations in tenders.

“What has been happening in the last two or three weeks is actually they have been aggressively selling crude oil,” Mercuria CEO Marco Dunand said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne on Tuesday. “They’ve taken out a lot of demand from various countries and offered aggressively in tenders.”

Dunand said there are a variety of possible explanations for the selling. They include the release of oil inventories within China, continued sales of Iranian oil in the weeks after the war started, and possible optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen quicker than it has so far. 

He also said that Mercuria sees Chinese gasoline demand falling by 1 million barrels a day this year as a result of electric-vehicle adoption, which also could have played a factor in the sales.

But the most important thing Dunand said, was his response to question how long this last: “How long can they do this for? I think the guess would be probably for about another three weeks and then I think at that point they would have to revise their position.”

Well, three weeks is also how long Iran has before its oil sector is permanently shut in. The good news: the end of the Iran war is – one way or another – now in sight. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Britain’s immigration system has hit a new low. A convicted Islamist terrorist who helped plot a bombing at the London Stock Exchange remains free to live in the UK, protected by human rights laws despite his asylum application being thrown out years ago.

The case of Shah Rahman exposes exactly how foreign terror offenders exploit loopholes that put British citizens at risk while officials tie themselves in knots over “rights.” As the migrant crisis spirals and taxpayers foot the bill for endless monitoring, this is not justice – it’s institutional surrender.

Rahman was jailed in 2012 alongside three other extremists inspired by Al-Qaeda over the plot to plant an improvised explosive device. He was released onto Britain’s streets just five years later in 2017, only to be recalled to prison in 2022 for breaches of his licence conditions.

This guy plotted to blow up the London Stock Exchange, went to prison twice and married a woman who was banned from Britain for life for having ISIS material, yet he gets to stay in the country because it would ‘violate his rights’ to deport him. https://t.co/MlKnUBupjs

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 21, 2026

After his initial release he lodged an asylum claim. It was rejected under Article 51 of the Refugee Convention, which bars refugee status for those convicted of “war crimes, crimes against humanity, terrorist acts or other serious criminal offences.”

Yet despite that rejection, an immigration judge ruled he could not be deported to Bangladesh. The judgement stated: “He was granted restricted leave to remain in the United Kingdom on the basis that he could not be removed to Bangladesh without breach of his rights under Article 3 of the Human Rights Convention.”

Article 3 guarantees the absolute right to be free from torture, inhuman or degrading treatment. In practice, it has become a get-out-of-deportation-free card for some of the most dangerous individuals on British soil.

Details of Rahman’s continued presence emerged during a separate legal battle involving his wife, Mauritian national Parveen Purbhoo. The pair married in an Islamic ceremony at East London Mosque in 2019 while he was on licence. Purbhoo was later barred from Britain for life by then-Home Secretary Suella Braverman after officers at Heathrow discovered Isis-related material on her phone.

A recent judgement in her case confirmed Rahman’s situation and delivered a damning assessment of her own conduct: “The applicant was complicit in Mr Rahman’s unlawful breach of notification requirements; and she has not provided either the police or SIAC with an explanation of how Islamist material came to be on her phone. Her willingness to place her own interests over and above legal or administrative processes is troubling and risky.” The court found she had been “reasonably assessed as a national security risk” and upheld the ban.

This is the same pattern of weakness we have highlighted before. In February we reported how the UK released another dangerous bomb-plot terrorist from prison early.

And back in January we covered the case of a convicted terrorist who plotted to bomb the British consulate now standing for election in the UK. Time after time, the system chooses leniency over public safety.

While ordinary Brits face rising costs, crime and the constant threat of terror, the state bends over backwards to accommodate those who plotted mass murder on our streets. Rahman’s case is not an outlier – it is the direct result of open-borders policies, ECHR activism and a political class more worried about international lawyers than British security.

Successive governments have talked tough on migration. Yet here we are in 2026 with an Islamist terrorist who targeted the London Stock Exchange still here, his wife’s Isis links exposed, and human rights lawyers still calling the shots. The Home Office insists it takes national security seriously. The evidence suggests otherwise.

Britain does not owe protected status to those who plotted to kill its citizens. Deportation should not be optional when the threat is this clear.

File this latest farce alongside a growing litany of ridiculous reasons sex criminals and other offenders have dodged deportation under the same broken system.

Albanian migrant Klevis Disha, who entered the UK illegally in 2001 under a false name and was later convicted for possessing £250,000 in dirty money, successfully fought deportation by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son – who apparently dislikes “foreign” chicken nuggets because of texture issues. 

First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso accepted the Article 8 family-life argument. Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf said: “A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created.”

A Somali criminal, schizophrenic and alcohol-dependent for nearly 20 years, was allowed to stay because deportation would cause him excessive “stress” and breach Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights by worsening his mental health. Deputy Upper Tribunal Judge Ian Jarvis ruled: “I conclude that the weight of the evidence before the Tribunal indicates that the [man] will very quickly become noncompliant with his medication… without the 24/7 support and monitoring which he currently receives in the United Kingdom.”

An insane Pakistani paedophile who reoffended by assaulting a teenage girl after release from prison for sex offences escaped deportation because his “uncontrollable” alcoholism would allegedly lead to “inhuman or degrading treatment” in Pakistan without proper treatment. He remains in Britain.

A separate Pakistani migrant arrived on a spousal visa and was convicted of attempting to cause children under 16 to engage in sexual acts after grooming decoy “barely pubescent girls” online while his wife was hospitalised with Covid. He won his appeal because deportation would be “unduly harsh” on his British children and family life.

Migrant shambles as unnamed judge lets paedophile we cannot name (to protect HIS privacy) stay in UK because pervert’s Pakistani family might disapprove of him lusting after ‘barely pubescent girls’ https://t.co/4by6HxEcZ6

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) February 7, 2025

The judge even factored in the wife’s lack of intimate relations during her illness. Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick called the case “disgraceful,” adding: “The public are right to think that our immigration system is rigged in the interests of people who mean us harm, illegal migrants, against the interests of the British public.”

And as the Daily Mail also revealed, another migrant won asylum by claiming he was gay and fleeing persecution – only to be exposed with a secret wife and child back in Cameroon. 

Revealed: Migrant granted asylum in Britain after claiming he was gay has a secret wife and child in Cameroon https://t.co/TMiC6wcoUI

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 22, 2026

Even being a convicted pedophile as well as an illegal migrant isn’t enough to warrant deportation:

The pattern is undeniable. Activist judges, human rights laws that handcuff the Home Office, and a political class addicted to open borders keep handing victories to those who should never have been here in the first place. 

Britain’s children and communities deserve better. The safety of the public must come first – not endless excuses for foreign criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

For a growing share of Americans, retirement no longer starts at 65.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Gabriel Cohen, shows where people aged 65 and older are still working across U.S. states, based on 2024 data from the U.S. Census Bureau via FinanceBuzz.

About 22% of Americans 65+ remain in the workforce, but the share climbs to nearly one-third in some states. The gap highlights how cost of living, job availability, and shifting retirement systems are reshaping when—and whether—Americans stop working.

The Workforces With The Most Seniors

The New England states of Vermont and New Hampshire (both 28.6%) lead the country in the number of seniors still working, followed by South Dakota at 27.6%.

A clear regional pattern emerges: Northeastern states dominate the top ranks, with many posting rates above 26%. Higher living costs and longer life expectancy likely contribute to more Americans 65+ staying in the workforce.

Most people are not working full-time, however. In fact, among its retirement-age workers, Vermont has the highest concentration of part-time employees nationwide, reflecting in part the social role work plays in many older Americans’ lives.

The Two Full-Time States

On the flip side, there’s Maryland, which has the highest share of full-time retirement-age workers in the country.

Maryland and Hawaii are actually the only two states in which a majority of working people aged 65 and up are employed full-time. Full-time work is generally essential for seniors who cannot rely on other retirement sources of income, such as Social Security, or who obtain needed benefits through their job.

The decline of traditional pensions is a key driver behind this shift. With retirement savings increasingly tied to 401(k) plans and market performance, many Americans are working longer to maintain financial security.

West Virginia and the Truly Retired

Among the 50 states in the country, West Virginia (16.7%) has the lowest share of retirement-age workers. It’s followed by Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, and Oregon, all of which sit around 19%.

In lower-ranking states like West Virginia and Arkansas, fewer Americans 65+ remain in the workforce—likely reflecting a mix of fewer job opportunities and lower living costs. In these areas, retirement may still be more attainable than continuing to work.

They may also have differing lifestyle preferences, electing to devote more time to family commitments than to the structure or social component of a job or so-called “side hustle.”

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapping Unemployment Claims per 100,000 Workers on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.