Workers at seven Amazon warehouses and other facilities went on strike Thursday morning in a nationwide labor action after the e-commerce giant refused to negotiate a labor contract with the union earlier this week.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said Amazon workers went on strike this morning at three Southern California locations, one New York City location, one Atlanta, Georgia location, and one in Skokie, Illinois. 

“Workers will join the picket line from DBK4 in New York City; DGT8 in Atlanta; DFX4, DAX5, and DAX8 in Southern California; DCK6 in San Francisco; and DIL7 in Skokie, Ill,” the union wrote in a press release.

🚨 BREAKING: The Teamsters Union has launched the largest strike against Amazon in U.S. history. 🚨

Amazon has forced this strike by refusing to follow the law and bargain with the thousands of Amazon workers who organized with the Teamsters.

Now, Amazon Teamsters at facilities… pic.twitter.com/9gRej7GANm

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) December 19, 2024

Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien explained, “If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed. We gave Amazon a clear deadline to come to the table and do right by our members. They ignored it.”

And it begins…

The Teamsters union launched a strike against Amazon that began Thursday morning. The strike will impact several facilities located in California, in addition to facilities in Queens, New York; Skokie, Illinois; and Atlanta, Georgia. pic.twitter.com/WTms20AthL

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) December 19, 2024

Breaking: After arresting an Amazon driver who tried to stop his van to show support to striking workers in NYC, police are now linking arms to protect the profits of Amazon & Jeff Bezos. No picture better illustrates the police’s role is to protect and serve capital, not people. pic.twitter.com/9URC37ATPU

— Power to the People ☭🕊 (@ProudSocialist) December 19, 2024

“These greedy executives had every chance to show decency and respect for the people who make their obscene profits possible. Instead, they’ve pushed workers to the limit and now they’re paying the price. This strike is on them,” O’Brien said. 

The union said, “10,000 Amazon workers have mobilized a movement and joined the Teamsters. They are fighting for higher wages, better benefits, and safer conditions at work,” adding other warehouses nationwide could soon join the labor action ahead of Christmas. 

.@Teamsters president warns strikes will “absolutely” expand if Amazon doesn’t come to the table just days before busy holiday rush. pic.twitter.com/UFGZMuUf7R

— CAPITAL (@capitalnewshq) December 19, 2024

“What we’re doing is historic,” said Leah Pensler, a warehouse worker at DCK6 in San Francisco

Historic in the sense of holding Christmas hostage for consumers? 

The problem is that Amazon will eventually automate these jobs by the end of the decade…

“I’ve seen the Teamsters win big battles,” said Dia Ortiz, a worker at DBK4 in New York, adding, “We’re ready to do what it takes to win this one.”

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

New Jersey is now subject to nonstop and often sensational civilian reports of swarms of nocturnal drones crossing city skies and violating the airspace of airports and military bases.

Terrified thousands demand to know what these drones are doing and to whom they belong.

In response, the Biden administration had initially kept mum.

Then, under mounting public pressure, it assured the public to be calm, given that most of the drones were likely launched by hobbyists and private citizens.

When that narrative failed to convince many, spokespeople pivoted to claims of mass hysteria and mistaken identity.

Amateur sightseers, they inferred, were subject to panic and hallucinations—supposedly wrongly confusing normal civilian and airline planes with drones.

Perhaps.

But as the sightings continued, more government narratives followed that the drones were unidentified but assuredly still harmless and certainly not foreign-operated.

Still, the mysterious sightings continued.

And the public’s initial curiosity soon turned to fear and finally to anger at their government’s silence, subsequent gaslighting, and final mendacity.

In its characteristic stonewalling, the Biden administration has only fueled speculations and occasional conspiracy theories when it could have at least reviewed logical theories and welcomed legitimate questions.

Is a controversial government agency—perhaps the CIA or the EPA—surveilling installations, areas, or people that would either be too embarrassing to be revealed or otherwise might set off panic? And for the public good or consistent with this administration’s weaponization of government?

Or are these drones the work of foreign surveillance in the mode of the 2023 Chinese spy balloon?

A government that long ago lost all its credibility could not reassure the people of the truth even if it wished to.

For nearly four years, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas assured the American people almost weekly that “the border is secure”—even as a reported 12 million illegal entrants easily crossed it.

White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre asserted weekly that President Joe Biden was vigorous, in full control of his faculties, and always “sharp.”

In fact, she knew that the American people grimaced as their president slurred his speech, suddenly went mute, tripped, fell, and wandered aimlessly.

In late January and early February 2023, a huge Chinese surveillance balloon traversed across the United States. Public outrage grew as the administration changed its excuses by the day.

It variously assured the public that it was a mere weather balloon, that it would be too dangerous to shoot it down, that it did not transmit any of its photographic capability to China, or that its trajectory did not cross key military installations.

All those excuses were either half-lies or untrue.

In late July and early August 2021, it became clear that the Biden administration planned a massive, previously unannounced, and abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Rumors circulated that Joe Biden rushed to claim that he alone had ended the messy Afghan war misadventure after 20 years and would celebrate his triumph on the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

To assuage public fears, our top generals assured us that the Taliban was at bay, Kabul was secured, and the withdrawal would be orderly.

But within hours, sheer bedlam broke out.

Thirteen Marines were murdered by terrorists.

There were no audits or background checks on Afghans who were flown to America. Meanwhile, loyal Afghan interpreters and American contractors were ignored and left behind to fend off triumphant terrorists on their own.

Even as Americans watched the disaster on their screens, the Biden administration boasted of a supposedly heroic and Herculean effort to evacuate tens of thousands—in what the public saw instead as the greatest American military humiliation of the last half-century.

So, the American public understandably no longer believes much of anything the waning Biden administration says—not after its other chronic lies about denying the role of the Wuhan lab in the COVID-19 pandemic, only “moderate” inflation, and assurances that Hunter Biden would never be pardoned by his father.

This administration knows that anytime there is a scandal or embarrassment on team Biden’s watch, it wheels out megaphones that ignore inquiries, gaslight critics by claiming they are hallucinatory, defame them as conspiratorial, or simply flat-out lie and stonewall.

No one yet knows what, if anything, these drones are, what they are doing in our skies—and much less whether they pose any threat at all.

But almost everyone assumes the Biden administration knows and yet expects that it will likely deceive us that it doesn’t.

That didn’t take long at all… the Biden White House is already thinking about normalizing relations with al-Qaeda splinter faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who still has a $10 million US bounty on his head for the fact that he fought with AQI and ISIS.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US is receiving positive signs from the hardline Islamist group now in control of Damascus and major Syrian cities, to the point that the White House is thinking of dispatching officials to engage the new rulers.

“We’ve been in direct contact, and we’re also looking at getting people on the ground in Syria,” Blinken said Thursday in a Bloomberg television interview. “We need to see concrete action, not simply positive declarations.”

His reference to people on the ground presumably means dispatching top Middle East envoys such as Brett McGurk or Amos Hochstein, or other diplomats who have long worked on regional problems.

At this moment some Congressional leaders who previously led to the way in imposing severe sanctions on the Assad government are calling for those very sanctions to be removed now that Assad is out of power.

While Jolani has claimed that Syria’s ‘diversity’ and pluralist ethno-religious identity will be preserved and that he doesn’t intend to make Syria like Afghanistan, many Christians are in fear and unable to speak freely for fear of the hardline Islamists now in control.

Blinken has previously called for HTS to demonstrate that it will protect women and religious minorities, including Alawites, Christians, Shia and Druze. But so far signs on the ground are not at all positive in this direction…

Speaking in Damascus, Julani said that the regime’s morality police will operate under the Minister of Internal Affairs and be under the supervision of religious clerics and mullahs.

The morality police’s job will be to ensure that the public implements Sharia Law. pic.twitter.com/xdWQndTCRD

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) December 19, 2024

Things are relatively quiet on the streets of Damascus, apart from jihadist groups occasionally intimidating Christian neighborhoods with black-flag waiving ‘patrols’ and convoys. But in the Hama and Latakia countryside areas there have been reports of targeted killings of Alawites and Christians.

During Blinken’s Bloomberg television interview that a potential Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement is back on the table. He said that with Hezbollah and Iran now greatly weakened, chances have improved for peace in Gaza.

What do the Syrian ‘rebels’ think of America?…

The brother tried to warn the audience about colonial powers attempting to divert the revolution’s path, but he was forcibly stopped. pic.twitter.com/5V212NePK0

— Muslim Hind🏴🏳️ (@Al_HindMuslims) December 12, 2024

“We’ve all been fanning out, working with all of the different partners who can make a difference,” Blinken said. But for well over a year, the hoped-for hostage exchange deal and truce with Hamas has proved elusive.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• Oil demand growth in 2025 is forecasted at 1–1.4 million bpd.

• China’s petchem sector drives oil demand growth, but growth from its transportation sector is flatlining.

• U.S. shale production growth may slow due to higher breakeven costs, depletion of Tier 1 acreage, and subdued oil prices limiting drilling incentives.

Doubts about oil demand growth will persist beyond 2024, and fears of a price slump will be there to keep them company. That’s according to some recent predictions about the state of the oil market in 2025, which see demand growing, China directing the market, and OPEC still likely to unwind its production cuts.

As early as November, some analysts warned that OPEC may decide it has had enough of losing market share and start bringing oil back whatever the price. This could bring the benchmarks down to $40 per barrel, Tom Kloza from OPIS told CNBC.

“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza said. These remarks echoed a forecast by the International Energy Agency, which in October said that OPEC might be facing a decline in its market share from 34% to a little over 31% by 2028, squeezed by producers including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

Perhaps the choice between flooding the market with crude to drown rivals, which OPEC has already done before, and keeping the output limits in place will be what marks 2025 for the production cartel. And perhaps the fear that analysts say OPEC producers should feel about the large non-OPEC oil countries is a little bit overrated.

The U.S. is the biggest threat to OPEC’s market share, according to those analysts. The largest oil and gas producer in the world, the country has boosted its production of both hydrocarbons significantly over the course of just two decades. Some in the industry are warning that this cannot continue forever at the same rate because the resources are finite, and the cheapest oil and gas has been depleted or close to being depleted. This means higher production costs down the line, even with the notorious efficiency gains that surprised the analyst tribe last year.

There is, however, a more immediate source of pressure on U.S. producers that is going to limit their own production growth next year, despite forecasts—and despite a very pro-oil president about to enter the White House in January. That source of pressure is simply the oil price. One Exxon executive spelled it out recently amid a flurry of predictions that the U.S. will become even bigger of an oil and gas producer thanks to Trump because everyone would start drilling at will.

“I think a radical change is unlikely because the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they’re doing,” Liam Mallon, president of upstream at the supermajor, said in November. “If those rules [on federal land drilling] were substantially changed, you would be able to drill more, assuming you have the quality and met your economic threshold,” Mallon also said. “But I don’t think we’re going to see anybody in the drill, baby, drill mode. I really don’t.”

Others have warned about drillers running out of Tier 1 acreage, prompting the Society of Petroleum Engineers to note that according to empirical data collected by Deloitte, there is not much of a difference between Tier 1 and Tier 2 acreage in terms of quality, at least in the Permian and the Eagle Ford plays. Whatever the tier, however, breakeven matters, and breakeven in the shale patch is higher than it is in many conventional plays. There is also the matter of oil demand and when forecasters talk about oil demand, all eyes are on China.

“We expect that China’s oil demand will continue to rise in 2025, but almost all of the growth will be accounted for by petrochemical feedstocks. Demand for transport fuels is likely to decline,” Wood Mackenzie wrote in a recent set of predictions for next year. The consultancy also said it expected global diesel demand to rise next year but only marginally, thanks to China’s new obsession with LNG trucks, which would undermine growth in this huge consumer. Wood Mac also predicted a decline in China’s gasoline demand because of EVs and growth in jet fuel demand that would not be able to offset the declines in the other fuels.

Speaking of demand, forecasts vary but moderately. The IEA sees demand growth next year at 1.1 million barrels daily. Wood Mackenzie sees it at 1.4 million barrels daily. ING cited demand estimates of “a little under 1 million bpd,” probably referring to an earlier IEA estimate of demand in a recent report on possible 2035 developments in oil. Morgan Stanley agrees with the IEA, forecasting demand growth of 1.1 million bpd for next year. Most forecasters appear to agree, however, that supply growth will exceed demand, invariably citing China as a driver of the slowdown in demand growth and non-OPEC producers as the driver of the surplus they expect.

Swedish police have finally boarded the Yi Peng 3, a 225-meter bulk carrier suspected of sabotaging undersea fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea last month. This was done at the invitation of Chinese authorities, according to Reuters. 

The Chinese bulk carrier is at the center of the sabotage investigation and threatens to push the limits of maritime law after EU investigators believe the ship deliberately drug its anchor along the Baltic seabed for more than 100 miles, damaging the Cinia C-Lion1 submarine cable between Finland and Germany. 

More from Reuters:

Swedish police said on Thursday they participated on board the Yi Peng 3 as observers only, while Chinese authorities conducted investigations. “In parallel, the preliminary investigation into sabotage in connection with two cable breaks in the Baltic Sea is continuing,” the police said in a statement. The actions taken on board the ship on Thursday were not part of the Swedish-led preliminary investigation, the police added.

Reuters noted: 

Western intelligence officials from multiple countries have said they are confident the Chinese ship caused the cuts to both cables. But they have expressed different views on whether these were accidents or could have been deliberate.

Shipping data from Marine Traffic shows Yi Peng 3 anchored in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden, along with several military vessels, including ones from Sweden and Germany. 

Media outlet ScandAsia cited underwater footage data showing drag marks from the bulk carrier’s anchor:

Experts have raised suspicions of sabotage attempts related to underwater cables near Læsø, following new underwater footage obtained by TV 2. The underwater footage reveals drag marks on the seabed coinciding with the mysterious maneuvers of the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3, which occurred just ten days prior to the cable breaks in the Baltic Sea.

Recent underwater drone operations conducted by TV 2, TV 2 Nord, and Swedish TV 4 off the coast of Læsø captured footage of a broad, dark line on the seabed. Drone operator Trond Larsen from Blueye Robotics confirmed that the marks align with the coordinates where the Yi Peng 3 passed over Danish data cables on November 7.

“There is a distinct mark that shares the same course as Yi Peng 3,” said Larsen while observing the sonar footage. This latest discovery has strengthened experts’ suspicions that the Yi Peng 3 may have participated in sabotage against three Danish-Swedish cables located on the seabed off Læsø. The 224-meter-long cargo ship carried out an unusual maneuver just ten days before the cables sustained damage.

Here’s our reporting on the ongoing situation:

• Baltic Undersea Data Cable ‘Disruption’ May Take Two Weeks To Repair

• Danish Navy Hunts Down Chinese Ship Suspected Of ‘Sabotaging’ Baltic Sea Cables

• NATO Flotilla Surrounds Chinese Ship Suspected Of Sabotaging EU Undersea Baltic Cables

FP’s Jay Solomon asked earlier this month: “Is World War III Already Here?”

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a temporary ban on drone operations in multiple areas across New Jersey until next month unless operators are given special permission, amid heightened concerns over recent sightings of the unmanned vehicles.

Over the past several weeks, drones – sometimes swarms of them – have been spotted in New Jersey by local residents and police, drawing alarm from elected officials in the state. Some, including Reps. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) and Chris Smith (R-N.J.), have called for the federal government to take down the drones, while federal officials say the drones don’t pose a threat to national security or public safety.

An Epoch Times review of the FAA’s Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) messages for New Jersey shows that the federal agency, starting from Dec. 18, has barred people from flying drones across most of the state, with some exceptions.

The ban went into effect on Dec. 18 and will end on Jan. 17, 2025, according to the messages.

“No UAS [unmanned aircraft system] operations are authorized in the areas covered by this NOTAM (except as described),” the FAA said on Dec. 18 for multiple regions across New Jersey.

Those exceptions include law enforcement, Homeland Security, firefighting, disaster response missions, drone operations in “support of event” operations, and commercial drone operations with a valid work reason. People who are operating drones for commercial purposes must also have an approved federal waiver while the ban is in effect, the notice said.

The FAA also recommended that operators check its NOTAMS section on a regular basis to see if “possible changes” were made by the agency.

An Epoch Times review of the NOTAMs shows that the temporary restrictions on drone flight operations were implemented in the following municipalities in the state: Bayonne, Branchburg, Bridgewater, Burlington, Camden, Cedar Grove, Clifton, Edison, Elizabeth, Evesham, Gloucester City, Hancocks Bridge, Hamilton, Harrison, Jersey City, Kearny, Metuchen, North Brunswick, Sewaren, South Brunswick, Westampton, and Winslow.

The restrictions also stipulate that no drone systems can operate within a distance of the airspace that is specified in each notice, including from the ground level up to 400 feet in height.

FAA rules allow drone operators to fly their unmanned aircraft at a maximum height of 400, although professional and commercial drones can fly above that range if they are within 400 feet of a building. But in the aforementioned areas in New Jersey, those rules are suspended until the FAA lifts the restrictions next month.

Several weeks ago, the FAA set up temporary flight restrictions for Bedminster and Picatinny Arsenal, which will remain in effect. President-elect Donald Trump has a golf course and residence in Bedminster, which he often visits.

U.S. agencies and the White House have said the spike in drone sightings does not pose national security risks and appear to be mostly aircraft, stars, or hobbyist drones, although several lawmakers have sounded the alarm that some drones may have nefarious intent. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul told reporters this week he believes some are being operated by the Chinese Communist Party, namely those seen near military bases.

Separately, the FBI’s Newark office warned people not to shoot at drones—or what they think are drones—with firearms or shine lasers at them.

The bureau warned that the practice “could be dangerous” and could lead to “deadly consequences if manned aircraft are targeted mistakenly,” because pilots may be blinded by the lasers.

Drone sightings have led to the shutdown of at least one military base in recent days, with Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio being closed temporarily over the past weekend, a spokesperson for the base told The Epoch Times on Tuesday. Another “drone incursion” was reported a few days later, on Dec. 17 and Dec. 18, a spokesperson for the base separately said.

On Wednesday, U.S. Marine Corps officials confirmed to The Epoch Times that a drone was spotted flying near Camp Pendleton base in Southern California between Dec. 9 and Dec. 15, stressing they posed “no threat” to ground or air operations.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul beefed up the number of New York National Guard members patrolling NYC subway stations, marking the largest military presence in the city’s subway system since the aftermath of 9/11. This heightened security measure coincides with mounting public hysteria over unidentified drones in NJ-NY airspace and the rising threat of terrorism.   

On Wednseday, Gov. Hochul told reporters that 250 additional Guard members will join the already deployed 750 Guard members to combat rapes, murders, and robberies that plague NYC’s subway system.

In March, when we heard about the initial deployment, we asked…

Terror Threat? NYC Mobilizing 1,000 National Guard Troops In Subways https://t.co/OKN0DiUeMt

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 7, 2024

“This marks the largest military presence in the city’s subway system since the aftermath of 9/11,” local paper Gothamist noted. 

Really need rifles to combat criminals in the subway? Seems like there has been an ongoing terror threat. 

BREAKING: New York National Guard and State Police have arrived at NYC Subways after the governor deployed them to combat a big increase in violent crime

Perhaps if New York prosecutors weren’t soo busy going after Donald Trump, they could spend their time locking criminals up pic.twitter.com/4wWbzgogzY

— George (@BehizyTweets) March 6, 2024

The governor said, “I’ve heard from many people that the presence of the National Guard has made not just a physical difference, but a psychological difference in how they feel about safety. When people see a person in uniform, NYPD, MTA, transit, even our national Guard, they feel more secure than why it’s a deterrent to those who would break our laws and threaten other riders,” adding, “They see that sense of security that if they have a problem, there’s someone there to help.”

Hochul credited the increased military presence, first deployed in March, with making riders feel safer… 

Sure, increasing the number of Guard members to combat subway crime might make sense. But why not simply beef up NYPD patrols? Or the threat is much larger than NYPD officers can handle. There must be something the government is failing to tell folks in NYC – just like the feds went weeks with keeping the public in the dark about mystery drone flights in the region.

The most alarming issue NYC faces comes from disastrous Biden-Harris’ open borders that flooded NYC with upwards of 200,000 unvetted migrants, some of whom may be pre-trained terrorists. 

In the short term, the threats to the homeland are rising, as described by Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, an Associate Professor and Research Faculty with Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University: 

“Radicalized Hamas members may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda as a more viable destination for their operations, given Al-Qaeda’s growing capabilities and its strategic ties to Iran. This shift could significantly strengthen Al-Qaeda’s position in the region, making it an even more formidable threat to Western and Israeli interests in the future.” 

While Hochul claims beefing up the Guard’s presence to the highest levels since the aftermath of 9/11 is merely to combat crime, the expanded deployment is likely a response to a more significant threat than drug addicts and rapists, considering Democrats have transformed America into a “terrorist playground” with open borders. 

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

I just had a moment thinking about today’s action in the market that inspired me to pen a small note tonight, ahead of tomorrow’s regularly scheduled programming.

The market sold off in sharp fashion today after the Federal Reserve did exactly what almost everybody on Wall Street thought they would do: cut by 25 basis points.

Interestingly, the “whisper scenario” that started to bubble up to the surface over the last few days was whether the Fed might even wait on cutting, despite more than 95% of the Street unanimously believing a rate cut was set for this month. The last-minute concern came from inflation and producer price index data that all but indicated inflation is under control. In fact, progress on inflation appears to have stalled, while at the same time, the economy continues to slow and the job market follows suit.

Today gave me an immediate flashback to the week before Christmas in December 2018. Those who have been reading my blog for a long time know that I have harped endlessly on the fact that market crashes don’t usually occur until the Fed actually starts cutting rates. From September:

This situation is not unlike the one we have with the stock market and the economy now. In addition to the American consumer being tapped out, I’ve pointed out multiple times that the stock market has a history of finally cracking and giving way after cuts begin. In essence, cuts finally happening could wind up being the biggest “sell the news” event in recent memory.

In countless posts here, I have used 2018 as an example. When the market started to drop precipitously at the end of 2018, just days before Christmas, the Fed sped up rate cuts and blew more air back into a bubble that would continue up until today.

Remember just a few months ago when I was making fun of Jeremy Siegel for requesting an emergency 75 basis point cut during the yen carry trade chaos?

Well, the market is more than 15% higher than those lows right now and, despite today’s “chaos,” is still just a couple of percent off its all-time highs. The market is going to return nearly 30% this year unless all hell really breaks loose in the next 12 days.

Today stood out because, over the last week, including in an interview with Chris DeMuth that I’ll be releasing in a couple hours, the idea of leverage has haunted me.

Perhaps it was Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy talking about the alarming amount of margin outstanding that he saw, or perhaps it was crypto’s recent skyrocket higher—as I pointed out in this piece just days ago—that alerted me to the idea of leverage. Day after day, I’ve watched Bitcoin skyrocket higher, fully aware that people are likely utilizing monster leverage to buy it. I’ve watched public companies sell stock to buy more Bitcoin. I’ve watched insane volume in the options market driving tech stocks higher and pushing the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio to almost 40x. As I discussed with Chris DeMuth, even equities now have leverage—with what feels like more 2X and 3X levered ETFs out there than there are underlying products for those ETFs to track.

Source: WSJ (and this was before the election, from August 2024)

The options market, levered ETFs, options on futures, and leverage on crypto are all tails that have been wagging the dog. As the market has moved higher, an entirely new generation of unsophisticated gambling addicts disguised as investors has pressed their bets all the way up. This includes every single person on social media who told you to “have fun staying poor” and every self-made millionaire you’ve seen posting on r/WallStreetBets as a result of buying options in tech stocks.

It’s these kinds of examples that make me ponder the question: Is it really different this time? But today, I’m remembering another lesson—that for every single time I’m exasperated at how euphoric things have become and mystified by the market’s resilience, there lies an even larger comeuppance and devastating lesson for those who get the market wrong.

Heading into the close today, we may have gotten a small taste of how much leverage the system has taken on. But whether or not we are even close to being fully liquidated remains to be seen (spoiler alert: hell no). One thing is for sure: we don’t have another rate cut planned to balance us out anytime soon, and Jerome Powell’s commentary today leaves the door open to a hawkish 2025. Of course, that won’t happen if the market seriously crashes before President Trump takes office.

🎄 HOLIDAY SALE – 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

So once again, we are faced with the question: Is this simply another “BTFD” situation, just like every other plunge in markets has been for the last hundred years? Do we turn a blind eye to valuation and the economic reality here in the United States because the central bank won’t let markets crash for long? Or could it really be different this time, heading in the wrong direction for most market participants?

In some respects, I hope that I continue to be wrong with my prognostications about eventual disorder and chaos the likes of which we’ve never seen before. But the word leverage continues to haunt me – as does the idiom that unprecedented monetary policy, blowing an unprecedented bubble, will yield unprecedented results.

To close out 2024, we’re going to see how much it haunts the rest of the market.

Everybody is already ready to close the book on an extremely successful 25% or 30% year for markets. But as the old saying goes: “Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.” So if I were bullish, I’d be hoping and praying that today was just an aberration, because if it is the beginning of a bigger deleveraging or liquidity event, people’s historical recollection of 2024 may be starkly different than many have already written in the history books to close out the year.

There are 4 trading days until Christmas, and 9 trading days until 2025. Strap in.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has been disqualified from prosecuting President-elect Trump in his election interference case by a Georgia court of appeals.

While the court didn’t throw out Trump’s indictment, Willis and the assistant DAs working in her office were found to have “no authority to proceed” with the case.

🚨JUST IN🚨

Fulton County DA Fani Willis is disqualified from the so-called election interference case against President Donald J Trump.

This ruling coming from the GA Court of Appeals. pic.twitter.com/82jvjYOfXQ

— Breanna Morello (@BreannaMorello) December 19, 2024

The new ruling means that Georgia’s Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council will need to find another prosecutor to take over the case and decide whether to continue pursuing it – though if Willis decides to appeal to the state Supreme Court, that could be delayed.

Needless to say, CNN is crestfallen.

pic.twitter.com/Q3UYpHV7rU

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) December 19, 2024

Developing…

With Friday’s government shutdown looming – and odds spiking after everyone figured out that the 1,547-page Continuing Resolution (CR) was full of Orwellian bullshit and other malarkey, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has gone to Donald Trumps team with hat in hand.

The new plan will be a federal funding stopgap plan that includes disaster aid, pushing off the debt limit fight for two years, and a one-year farm bill extension, Politico reports, citing Republicans familiar with the discussions.

No word on how close this comes to a “clean” bill, or how much of the aforementioned bullshit is gone – such as funding the Global Engagement Center, shielding the Jan. 6 committee from subpoenas, and funding new biolabs, but we guess we’ll find out.

Also unknown is whether Democrats will support the plan.

But Trump had made an 11th hour public demand that any stopgap bill should deal with the debt limit. Trump’s team is pushing for at least a commitment to lift the debt limit before Jan. 20.

The level of disaster aid and whether it’s completely paid for is still unclear. The package would also likely include some additional economic aid for farmers, amid threats from rural Republicans to oppose any stopgap that doesn’t include the funding. -Politico

In a closed door meeting on Thursday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told Democratic lawmakers: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate,” citing JFK.

Polymarkets odds of a government shutdown went from 15% yesterday to 49% this morning.

According to Punchbowl News, here’s what happened, and what’s next;

At some point today, House Republicans and Democrats will likely have separate party meetings to chart their path forward. Democrats have announced their meeting for 9 a.m. We’ll talk more about them below.

But make no mistake — this is Johnson and Trump’s mess to solve. And we’re inching toward a shutdown as government funding runs out at midnight Friday.

Johnson was mostly MIA Wednesday, holed up in his Capitol office for hours without showing his face. Even the House GOP leadership team felt like they were being kept in the dark about what was happening.

Late in the evening, Johnson met with Vance, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rules Committee Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas). Jordan and Roy are conservative hardliners. Diaz-Balart is a senior appropriator.

As Scalise left around 10 p.m., he told reporters “We’re not there yet” when asked whether the debt-limit boost would be part of any new government-funding plan. “A lot of things have come up,” Scalise added.

A somewhat obvious play may be a funding bill with a two-year debt-limit extension. Why? Because Trump supports increasing the debt limit now. Given how volatile Trump was during his first term, there’s no guarantee he’ll do this again. (For what it’s worth, Biden administration officials estimate the debt limit won’t be reached until sometime next summer. GOP leaders were planning to handle it in a reconciliation bill).

Trump is giving Johnson cover for the time being. It’s limited, however. Because Trump, once again, has put his party in a bind. There are probably dozens of Republicans who have never voted for raising the debt ceiling. Now Trump is forcing them to do so.

Check back for updates.