The rollercoaster continues: US equity futures are in the red again, trading near session lows, and set to extend Thursday’s losses with as stocks underperform after yesterday’s spectacular plunge in the momentum trade as NVDA’s post record-breaking earnings/guidance plunge spooked markets that nothing is resolved about where AI goes next. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.6%, and set for a monthly loss after a whirlwind February marked by twin fears of a bubble in the AI trade and of the technology’s disruptive power. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%. In the latest AI contradiction, CoreWeave plunged 12% after data center operator reported a bigger-than-expected loss and higher capex fueling concern about overspending on infrastructure. But in a mirror image, Dell is 12% higher after its outlook for sales of AI servers exceeded estimates, a sign of robust demand for machines helping fuel the AI data center build-out. 10-year Treasury yields slid below 4%, while the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed, with Energy higher and Metals mixed (Silver outperforming vs Gold flat). Today’s macro data focus is on PPI and Construction Spending.

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Nvidia is up 0.4% after sliding Thursday, other names are mostly lower (Alphabet little changed, Tesla -0.2%, Amazon -0.5%, Apple -0.5%, Meta Platforms -0.5%, Microsoft -0.8%). 

• Block (XYZ) rallies 18% after the financial technology company said it was reducing its workforce by nearly half in a bet on AI. Jack Dorsey’s firm also raised its full-year outlook for gross profit, which was already above the average analyst estimate.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) slides 12% after the AI infrastructure software company reported a bigger-than-expected loss and boosted capital expenditures, spurring concerns about the company overspending on infrastructure.
• Flutter (FLUT) is down 15% after the gambling company reported fourth-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street estimates. Guidance for 2026 was worse than expected, according to analysts, who pointed to increasing competitive pressures in the US sports-betting market as a key concern.
• NCR Atleos (NATL) jumps 16% as The Brink’s Company said it will acquire the company in a cash and stock deal valued at about $6.6 billion.
• Netflix (NFLX) is up 8% after the streaming giant dropped out of the fight to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively ending the bidding war for the Hollywood studio.
• Zscaler (ZS) is down 9% after the security software company’s second-quarter results weren’t seen as strong enough to reverse recent negative sentiment toward software companies.

In other corporate news, Netflix rose more than 7% after dropping out of the bidding for Warner Bros. Dell Technologies surged 11% following a strong sales forecast for its AI servers. 

Nvidia suffered its worst day since April on Thursday, with the price action suggesting the world’s most valuable company is no longer being rewarded for spectacular results and remarkable guidance.

NVDA’s plunge happens as the disruptive potential of AI has rattled US equities for weeks in what traders have dubbed the “AI scare trade.” The technology’s bellwethers have also lost momentum after powering S&P 500 gains for years, prompting investors to rotate into markets abroad and companies tied to broader economic growth.

“The outperformance highlights the possibility of a lingering overvaluation in some asset classes in the US, as well as doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “Barring an economic downturn in Europe, the outperformance should continue.”

“The outperformance highlights the possibility of a lingering overvaluation in some asset classes in the US, as well as doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “Barring an economic downturn in Europe, the outperformance should continue.”

As Wall Street tries to assess likely job losses at the hands of AI, Jack Dorsey’s financial technology firm Block is cutting 4,000 employees, nearly half its workforce, in a bet on AI changing the future of labor productivity. Then again, considering that Elon Musk fired 80% of Dorsey’s last company before ChatGPT was even out – and it thrived – or that Block spent $68 million on a party a few months before the mass layoffs, suggests that the culprit here is bloat and terrible management, and not AI.

Block:
1. spend $68 million on a party
2. 200 days later fire 40% of workers
3. blame AI pic.twitter.com/TdgXnIVGNM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 27, 2026

The market’s unease about private credit persists. In an rerun of the collapse of First Brands, a spectacular new private credit blowup in London has Wall Street chasing billions. And a private credit fund overseen by Apollo Global Management cut its dividend and marked down the value of its assets amid signs of strain in parts of its loan book.

Elsewhere, Anthropic, the AI start-up that has wiped billions off the market value of US stocks, remains in focus. US lawmakers, flummoxed by the Pentagon’s negotiating tactics, are warning that carrying out those threats would have significant consequences for the military ecosystem. Meanwhile, investment-grade bond markets, which had emerged as a safe haven during recent AI-driven swings in equities, are starting to show signs of strain.  

US stocks saw inflows of $2.2 billion in the week ended Feb. 25, according to BofA citing EPFR Global data. Strategists led by Michael Hartnett see international stocks outperforming US for the rest of this decade. 

“I don’t see any major correction coming, but any hint of a recession linked to AI in the US would certainly trigger some unpleasant trading,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “Europe is currently better positioned than the US and outperforming as its tech sector is much smaller and there is much less uncertainty on monetary policy.”

Earnings season wraps up next week, and has so far been somewhat disappointing, with the fewest S&P 500 companies beating estimates since 2022. Of the 481 to have reported so far, 73.4% have beaten forecasts, while nearly 22% have missed. No major US companies are expected to report on Friday, but Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report is due on Saturday, including Greg Abel’s first annual letter to shareholders on performance since taking over as CEO from Warren Buffett.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 was on track for an eighth straight monthly advance, its longest such streak in more than a decade; telecommunications and mining stocks lead gains, while travel and consumer products shares edged lower. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Deutsche Telekom shares rally while Vodafone dips following an El Español report that Telefonica is in talks over a potential acquisition of 1&1 in Germany
• Prysmian shares reverse earlier losses to trade as much as 2.3% higher following 4Q results from the Italian cable make
• Holcim gains as much as 1.5% after the French building materials firm reported fourth-quarter earnings that were slightly ahead of expectations and an outlook that is unlikely to trigger any major revisions to estimates, according to analysts
• Clariane shares jump 17%, the most since June, as analysts highlight improving margins and cost-saving initiatives at the French nursing home operator
• Saint-Gobain shares fall as much as 3.2%, the most since Jan. 13, after the French construction materials producer reported fourth-quarter results. Jefferies noted that like-for-like sales in the period trailed expectations
• Melrose Industries plunges as much as 16%, the biggest drop in almost a year, after earnings guidance from the aerospace business fell short of expectations, overshadowing a profit and cashflow beat delivered in 2025
• BASF shares fall as much as 5.4%, after the German chemicals company’s full-year results disappointed analysts, who expect consensus downgrades, even though a January pre-release had already revealed price and currency woes at the company
• Grifols shares declined as much as 8.3%, the most since April, after the Spanish company’s adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter missed estimates and it issued guidance that analysts say fell short of expectations
• Valeo falls as much as 4.9% following its results, despite guidance implying upgrades to consensus free cash expectations, after this metric also surprised to the upside in the second half of the year. Net income was, however, impacted by higher tax
• Wizz Air shares slid as much as 10%, the most since July, after shareholder Indigo Partners offered 10 million shares priced at £12.50, a discount of 6.4% to Thursday’s closing price
• Fugro shares fall as much as 12%, the most since September, after the Dutch geological data company saw its year-over-year adjusted Ebit plunge by 92% in what Jefferies says was a “challenging winter season”

Asian stocks traded mixed, with a key regional benchmark on track to close its best February on record as investors snapped up shares of the region’s AI infrastructure companies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain as much as 0.6% Friday. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1%, as chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix fell. Key gauges rose in Japan and Hong Kong, while Taiwan’s market was closed for a holiday. Asian stocks have been outperforming global peers, with the region’s hardware firms seen as beneficiaries of the AI buildout even as concerns grow over spending levels and business disruption. The MSCI regional gauge is up 6.7% this month, poised for the best February since it started trading in 1998. Chinese technology stocks in Hong Kong capped their worst month in two years, weighed by weak earnings and a lack of buying by mainland investors. Sentiment toward China’s Internet giants has cooled amid concerns over valuations and rising competition that’s eroding corporate bottom line. Meanwhile, global investors offloaded nearly $5 billion of South Korean equities on Friday, in a sign of profit taking after the equity benchmark rallied nearly 50% this year. The index rose past the 6,000 threshold this week, just a month after surpassing President Lee Jae Myung’s political goal of 5,000.

In FX, the dollar was set for a fourth straight monthly loss. The Norwegian Krone led G10 currencies with a +0.54% rise. The pound fell slightly against the dollar after a special election in the UK laid bare the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government.

In rates, treasuries extended gains, with the 10-year note on track for its best month in a year after yields have tumbled 26 basis points in February to 3.98%. Outperformance by front-end and belly steepened 2s10s spread by about 1bp, 5s30s by about 1.5bp. 10-year gilts and bunds are slightly cheaper vs US benchmark

In commodities, oil rose again, after sliding on Thursday. Gold traded flat, with prices headed for a seventh consecutive monthly advance.

The cross-asset moves reflect sustained demand for havens amid policy uncertainty from the Trump administration, tensions in the Middle East and questions about the strength of US economic growth. Swap traders added to bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with a July move again almost fully priced after being briefly scaled back earlier this week.

US economic data slate includes January PPI (8:30am), February MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), December construction spending (10am) and February Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). No Fed speakers are scheduled. Bloomberg Economics expects producer price inflation, which shows price trends before they reach consumers and feeds into the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, to have slowed to 0.2% in January from 0.5%. Potentially, that could bolster the case for further rate cuts.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 3.99%
• VIX +1.1 points at 19.74
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1188.36
• euro little changed at $1.1801
• WTI crude +1.8% at $66.38/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The United States and Iran made progress in talks over Tehran’s nuclear program on Thursday, mediator Oman said, but hours of negotiation ended with no sign of a breakthrough that could avert potential U.S. strikes amid a massive military buildup. RTRS
• Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that while military strikes against Iran remain under consideration by President Donald Trump, there is “no chance” that such strikes would result in the United States becoming involved in a years-long, drawn-out war. WSJ
• Anthropic rejected the Pentagon proposal to settle a dispute over terms for military use of its AI software. BBG
• A long-running conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban regime has turned into what Pakistan declared Friday to be “open war,” with attacks reported in Kabul and along the neighbors’ shared border. WSJ
• China announced it would remove a reserve requirement for forward contracts selling the yuan in a move aimed at cooling the currency’s advance. The yuan snapped its longest winning streak since 2010. Still, options traders are betting on a stronger yuan. FT, BBG
• Inflation in Japan’s capital cooled below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in over a year, but the slowdown is unlikely to derail further interest rate hikes. WSJ
• Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is planning to replace about 5,000 administrative jobs in Japan with artificial intelligence over the next 10 years, as the country’s third-largest lender tries to boost productivity. BBG
• The pound fell to its lowest level against the euro in more than two months as the Greens won a by-election in Manchester and Reform UK received the second-highest number of votes. The result underscored the threats facing PM Keir Starmer. BBG
• Netflix shares jumped premarket (NFLX +740bps premkt) after it dropped its bid for Warner Bros., clearing the way for Paramount’s $111 billion deal. The decision allows the streamer to focus on buybacks and its “build vs. buy” strategy. BBG
• IG bond markets are showing signs of stress, with spreads widening as investors grow wary of default risks in the software sector and pressure in private credit. Risk premiums, however, remain below long-term averages. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s MOFCOM announces adjustments to anti-discrimination measures against Canada effective Mar 1st till Dec 31st 2026, will not impose relevant tariffs on some imports from China.
• Japan’s PM Takaichi said US needs to honour its commitments on tariffs.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately higher heading into month-end but with price action choppy following the weak handover from the US, where sentiment was clouded by tech weakness, while participants also digested the recent US-Iran talks in Geneva. ASX 200 mildly gained as strength in tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in financials and consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a firmer currency and a slew of mixed data releases from Japan, in which Industrial Production disappointed, Retail Sales topped forecasts, and Tokyo CPI printed firmer-than-expected but slowed across the board with the Core reading falling beneath the central bank’s 2% price target for the first time since October 2024. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with outperformance in Hong Kong as participants digested earnings releases from the likes of Baidu and Sun Hung Kai Properties, while the mainland initially lacked direction in the absence of fresh catalysts and ahead of next week’s annual “two sessions”, while Trump-Xi summit preparations were said to falter. However, late upside was seen after comments from China’s Politburo meeting in which it stated that China’s development process during the 14th Five-Year Plan is extraordinary and that it is necessary to continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy.Top Asian News

Top Asian News

• China Politburo held a meeting on Friday and noted that China’s development process during the 14th Five-Year Plan is extremely unusual and extraordinary. Said that it is necessary to continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Necessary to focus on building a strong domestic market and step up the cultivation and expansion of new growth momentum.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are broadly firmer, with the SMI (+0.7%) the clear outperformer after Swiss Re (+3.6%) posted a 47% Y/Y rise in 2025 net profit while announcing a USD 500mln share buyback. Lagging behind its peers is the CAC 40 (-0.1%), with very company-specific news to drive the index. European sectors are mixed. Telecommunications (+1.3%) outperform after Spain’s Cellnex (+0.6%) saw 2025 operating profit rise more  than double annually and Telefonica (+3.7%) reportedly negotiating the purchase of 1&1 (+9.4%)in Germany in a EUR 5bln deal. On the flip side, Travel and Leisure (-1.8%) is underperforming despite positive IAG (-5.5%) earnings, in which the Co. beat FY profit expectations and announced a EUR 1.5bln share buyback.

Top European News

• UK former Deputy PM Rayner noted the Gorton and Denton by-election results are a “wake up call” and Labour “has to be braver”; Sky News suggests these remarks will be taken as a direct aim at UK PM Starmer and his leadership.
• EU Commission eyes a legal loophole to bypass Hungary’s veto of a EUR 90bln euro loan, according to FT.
• UK Green Party wins parliamentary seat in Gorton and Denton, defeating UK PM Starmer’s Labour in the by-election.

FX

• DXY is choppy but ultimately slightly softer following subdued APAC trade amid mixed sentiment, whilst the tone in Europe is tentative. Modest downticks in the index were seen as the EUR strengthened following the hotter-than-expected French CPI data (more below). Aside from that, newsflow in the European morning has been on the quieter side as USD traders gear up for US PPI data later in the session. DXY resides in a current 97.611-97.824 range at the time of writing, within Thursday’s 97.489-97.984 parameter.
• EUR/USD eked mild gains after oscillating around the 1.1800 focal point overnight, with a more convincing move above the level seen after the hotter-than-expected French and Spanish Prelim CPI metrics. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1789-1.1822 range awaiting the German Prelim CPI later today. The single currency then slipped to the unchanged mark after German state CPI metrics, where the Y/Y metrics generally showed a bit more cooling than what is forecasted for the mainland.
• GBP/USD languished near the 1.3500 level following the prior day’s underperformance owing to credit concerns, and with overnight price action contained after UK GfK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level that was last seen in November. Overnight, UK journalists focused on the Gorton and Denton by-elections in which the Green party won, with Reform second and Labour third. With Labour losing a seat they held for almost 100 years, UK PM Starmer’s leadership could be at risk. Nonetheless, GBP/USD saw little reaction to the results announcement, and currently resides in a 1.3461-1.3507 range, after finding support at its 200 DMA (1.3442) yesterday. Ahead, BoE’s Chief Economist Pill is due to give some remarks.
• USD/JPY retreated amid the early subdued risk appetite and following a slew of data, including Tokyo CPI, which printed firmer-than-expected across the board, but slowed from the previous with Core inflation back beneath the BoJ’s price goal. The pair pared back some losses as the DXY recouped some overnight losses. USD/JPY trades in a 155.54-156.12 range vs yesterday’s 155.70-156.43 parameter.
• Antipodeans rebounded from the prior day’s trough and narrowly outperform in the European morning, but with further upside contained by the mixed risk appetite and amid a weaker CNH, which was pressured after the PBoC actions to slow currency appreciation, in which it cut the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% and set a weaker-than-expected CNY fix by maintaining it at the prior day’s level.

Fixed Income

• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks this morning, and trades within a 113-16 to 113-19 range. Really not much driving things for the US paper this morning, and remains towards the prior day’s peaks. The upside in USTs on Thursday was facilitated by subdued risk appetite and a decent 7yr auction. Focus remains on the geopolitical situation, following US-Iran talks. Meetings have concluded, and whilst there have reportedly been some positive developments, uncertainty remains. Reports suggest that US President Trump is expected to convene senior advisers on Friday for detailed discussions on Iran and to decide on a course of action toward Tehran. Internal deliberations are said to be focused not on whether a strike would occur but on its scope and potential targets. Next up, US PPI.
• Bunds are incrementally firmer/flat, and currently reside within a 129.76 to 129.99 range. Initially held towards recent highs, but has since slipped towards the unchanged mark following the hotter-than-expected French/Spanish inflation metrics. Though the German State CPIs thereafter spurred some modest upticks in Bunds, given the Y/Y metrics generally showed a bit more cooling than what is forecasted for the mainland.
• Gilts are firmer by around 10 ticks, to currently trade near the upper end of a 93.00-93.30 range. Overnight, UK journalists focused on the Gorton and Denton by-elections in which the Green party won, with Reform second and Labour third. With Labour losing a seat they held for almost 100 years, UK PM Starmer’s leadership could be at risk – which in theory would place pressure on UK-assets. This has not been reflected in price action this morning, though analysts at GS opined that the risk had already been priced in by markets.
• Japan sold JPY 2.15tln in 2-year JGBs; b/c 3.32x (prev. 3.88x); average yield 1.244% (prev. 1.253%).
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 2.75% November 2028 bonds, b/c 3.86, avg. yield 4.1849%.

Commodities

• WTI Apr’26 and Brent May’26 futures are firmer within USD 64.85-65.90/bbl and USD 70.42-71.49/bbl intraday ranges thus far, respectively. Gains follow yesterday’s US-Iran negotiations, which ultimately failed to reach an accord, but the sides agreed to continue technical talks. Mediators reported “unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas”. Both sides reportedly moved closer on specific elements of an agreement related to nuclear limits and sanctions relief. That being said, major sticking points remain.
• Spot gold trades within a narrow range after only modestly gaining on yesterday’s US-Iran saga, which ended in no deal, but talks are poised to continue next week. Traders will be focused on any potential US military action this weekend in a bid to pressure Iran. Spot gold resides tight USD 5,167-5,200.64/oz range at the time of writing. Spot silver is firmer by some 1.5% intraday but contained to within Wednesday’s ranges.
• Base metals are firmer across the board despite the choppy risk tone in Asia, but prices are underpinned by the softer USD. Some desks attribute the rise to the stalled US-Iran talks and strengthening demand signals from China. The upside also comes ahead of next week’s China “Two Sessions”, where formal approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan and new stimulus measures for infrastructure and technology (AI, EVs, grid networks) are anticipated. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,243.73-13,508.13/t.
• London Metal Exchange announces the consultation for introducing regulatory position limits, exemptions and position management controls.
• Iron ore port stockpiles hit record levels in China as mines continue to add supply.
• Abu Dhabi reportedly offers more oil to partners, heading into the OPEC+ meeting, Bloomberg sources say.
• India is reportedly looking to cut coal imports for power plants at least 30% this year, sources say.
• China SHFE warehouses weekly changes: Copper +43.7%, Aluminium +19.7%, Zinc +44.9%.
• A local ceasefire has been established near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, TASS reported. Further by RIA stating one power line is being repaired at the power plant.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US authorises the departure of some embassy personnel and families from Israel amid safety risks.
• Iran urges US to abandon “excessive demands” to reach deal, Sky News Arabia reported citing AFP.
• Iranian spokesperson said “In the event of any conflict, American soldiers and their equipment will be destroyed, and all US resources and interests in the region will be within the range of Iranian forces”, via Iran International.
• Top Middle East commander briefed US President Trump on military options on Iran, according to ABC News.
• US VP Vance said negotiations depend on what the Iranians do and there is no chance that any potential strikes on Iran will result in engaging in a war for years.
• US President Trump is expected to convene senior advisers on Friday for detailed discussions on Iran and to decide on a course of action toward Tehran, according to Israel Hayom citing US officials. Internal deliberations are said to be focused not on whether a strike would occur but on its scope and potential targets, while options under discussion include nuclear facilities, missile sites, state institutions and infrastructure.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said further progress has been made in our diplomatic engagement with the US, also said mission of the technical teams is as important as our mission.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister is scheduled to meet with US VP Vance and other US officials in Washington on Friday.

Geopolitics: Others

• China said it is not possible to join denuclearisation talks at this stage.
• AFP reported of clashes near a major border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• Afghan Ministry of Defence said their military operation resulted in casualties among Pakistani forces and came in defence of their territory and people, while it vowed to respond to future attacks.
• Loud explosion heard in Afghanistan’s capital of Kabul and Pakistani fighter jets are reportedly conducting a raid on Kabul.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

d

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure to reinvent his ailing Labour government with a leftwards pivot after the Green Party captured one of its House of Commons seats via a special election.

The result underscores the recent fragmentation of UK politics and the disruption of long-held electoral certainties.

It has “torn the roof off” British politics, said Green Party Leader Zack Polanski.

Spencer’s win marks the first-ever by-election victory for the Greens, as well as their first seat in northern England, highlighting the increasing reach of the left-wing party in a context where Labour voters are abandoning it in both directions.

Spencer’s margin of victory was much more comfortable than commentators had expected, with polls consistently understating the Greens’ appeal.

The swing from Labour was 26% in Gorton and Denton, and the Greens now have five MPs in Parliament.

Andrea Egan, general secretary at workers’ union Unison, said Labour should be “taking the fight” to Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage “rather than letting him set the agenda.”

As Tom Jones reports below for TheCritic.co.uk, the election has grim implications.

The Gorton and Denton by-election, by virtue of having been won by the Greens, marks a more momentous shift for the left than the right. Ava Santina has written about this for us, and a recent Critic Show episode is devoted entirely to the fracturing of the left. 

But like the overweight kid trying to avoid getting near the ball in PE, just because you don’t win, that doesn’t mean there aren’t lessons to be learned. 

The first is that Reform may need to start thinking about expectation management. As an insurgent party, they were happy to talk up their chances of winning in order to build the narrative that the two main parties are finished. But this made the race seem closer than the result ended up being: 4,000 votes behind the Greens and  just over 1,000 votes ahead of Labour therefore will be made to seem like an underperformance by the media. 

It was not. In terms of the size of the swing needed from the 2024 General Election, Gorton and Denton was 413th on Reform’s target list. Even with their polling shoring up at around 30 per cent, as it is in national polls, turning the sixth Labour seat over was a stretch too far. On the upside, a national campaign against the Greens will be a much more favourable proposition for Reform, coming as it does against a weaker campaigning machine than Labour — and increased scrutiny on the Green Party, which it will fail.

A lesson may also be on the need to find local candidates. I hate that local candidates boost election performances, I hate that Hannah Spencer claimed she had never seen Matt Goodwin in the local Asda “doing his big shop”, but most of all I hate that it works. A local candidate would not have swung Gorton and Denton their way, but there will be a significant number of seats where it will. It’s yet another problem for Reform’s candidate selection team to deal with. 

As for the other right-wing parties, the question is, “why bother?” 

The Conservatives took just 706 votes. 1.9 per cent of the vote. That is their lowest ever vote share in a by-election. They lose their deposit for the first time at an English by election for nearly 40 years.

We have heard much about the need for a Reform-Conservative pact. It has come, overwhelmingly, from establishment media figures whose professional relevance depends on preserving their access to the Conservative Party — and who can see that access, and therefore their own influence, draining away. Such a pact would necessitate the Conservatives to stand aside in hundreds of seats like this. It is so ingrained in the Conservative psyche to stand candidates everywhere that it is part of the party’s constitution. Farage has been burned before with a Conservative pact — it is incumbent on the Conservatives to make any such a deal happen.

The Conservative statement after the result spoke much about this result rendering Starmer a lame duck, but nothing about their failure to play any role in this result being delivered. 

Meanwhile Advance UK, the Ben Habib vehicle, took 154 votes — less than the Monster Raving Loony Party. A vision of Restore Britain’s future? Perhaps. There is a question here. If things are really as bad as the leaders of these parties claim, then how can they justify siphoning off votes from adjacent right-wing parties over ever-finer points of right-wing doctrine? When the house is on fire, it is a strange moment to insist on arguing about the exact brand of extinguisher.

Perhaps parties formed with the sole aim of giving histrionic social media addicts something to do will not be Britain’s salvation. Who knew.

Finally, the lesson that all parties of the right should take is in the dangers of sectarian voting.

For a long time the conventional parties have been happy with sectarian voting, so long as it delivered conventional parties.

The salience of the Muslim vote in this election — coupled with the Green Party’s campaign videos in Urdu and Bangla — has reinforced a narrative that has been gathering force since the rise of the so-called “Gaza independents”: that Britain has a sectarian voting problem that can no longer be ignored. 

It is fast becoming an ingrained part of our political culture: Sky’s coverage of the result included Sam Coates examining and speaking about the proportion of the seat that is ethnic minority.

There is a risk here.

A political class steeped in American news and habits of thought may interpret this development as merely the British version of familiar US-style demographic politics, where politics is more attuned to minute changes amongst identity and interest groups.

It is not. American immigrants, and therefore their voting patterns, are markedly different to those in Britain. We are not getting “suburban moms”.

The Electoral Commission grants Democracy Volunteers access to polling stations during elections, and the group has reported seeing “concerningly high levels” of family voting (an illegal practice in which two voters occupy a single polling booth, often with one directing the other’s vote) in the by-election. 

John Ault, director of Democracy Volunteers, said: “Today we have seen concerningly high levels of family voting in Gorton and Denton. Based on our assessment of today’s observations, we have seen the highest levels of family voting at any election in our 10 year history of observing elections in the UK.”

He added: “We rarely issue a report on the night of an election, but the data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high. In the other recent Westminster parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby we saw family voting in 12 per cent of polling stations, affecting 1 per cent of voters. In Gorton and Denton, we observed family voting in 68 per cent of polling stations, affecting 12 per cent of those voters observed.”

Manchester City Council have hit back, arguing that “No such issues have been reported today”, and blaming Democracy Volunteers for not reporting these issues at the time. This issue is too obvious to ignore (although some will try), and at least some parties will find it politically expedient to oppose it. These voting patterns have been documented for a long time. Perhaps, after the next election, we will finally have the chance to deal with them. Small mercies, but mercies nonetheless. 

Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister who is bookmakers’ favorite to succeed Starmer, said the result was “a wake-up call.”

Cocoa prices have collapsed 75% from their 2024 peaks, and Goldman’s latest note points out that the worst of the cocoa shock for chocolate makers may finally be passing after being squeezed by soaring bean costs through 2023, 2024, and into the first half of 2025. This only suggests that lower chocolate bar prices at the supermarket could materialize later this year. Against that backdrop, Goldman reiterated Buy ratings on two confectionery stocks.

Analysts led by Sam Darbyshire said the global chocolate production costs should drop by as much as 10% in 2026 and 2027. She pointed out that weather patterns in West Africa – the mecca of global cocoa farming – have supported increased production for the upcoming harvest, leading to stabilization in global supplies.

Darbyshire pointed out that the cocoa futures curve is no longer backward-dated, with December 2027 delivery now 17% more expensive than March 2026 delivery. She said this would help top confectionery firms to commit to increased volumes.

“Double-digit raw material deflation in chocolate over the next two years is likely to drive an increasingly competitive operating environment as manufacturers strive to return to volume growth,” she wrote in the report.

Darbyshire noted that, with elevated chocolate prices, current Nielsen data show that consumer demand for chocolate remained soft in January, with elasticities worsening in Europe (consistent with Mondelez commentary). She said that private players are being more competitive on pricing, with Mars and Ferrero pricing below market.

“With weak underlying volumes and easing raw material inflation, we expect promotional activity to intensify throughout the year,” the analyst said.

Darbyshire said this new cocoa pricing regime has generated a “Buy” in Barry Callebaut and Nestle, but “Sell” in Lindt.

Why this matters is that the chocolate industry is about to transition from a period of price hikes to one of greater discounting and tougher competition.

In a separate note, Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman, highlighted in December that sliding cocoa prices could produce “tailwinds” for candy and junk food companies. Read that note here.

Professional subscribers can read the full note on the inflection point the chocolate industry is entering this year, along with many more charts via Goldman, on our new MarketDesk.ai portal. As noted above, attractive setups are emerging in several beaten-down candy stocks.

Authored by Lipton Matthews via The Mises Institute,

I recently attended an event at the Prosperity Institute in the United Kingdom, and, as a foreigner listening to the discussion unfold, I found it both unsettling and clarifying.

The panel addressed the grooming gang scandal, a subject that remains profoundly uncomfortable for Britain’s political and cultural establishment. What distinguished this event was its refusal to soften the reality of what occurred or to retreat into evasive language. The discussion did not merely revisit past failures; it exposed a deeper pattern in how British institutions exercise power.

At the center of the panel was Fiona Goddard—a victim of grooming who spoke with calm precision.

She described how the police betrayed her trust after she came forward with her story, only to discover that information she had shared in confidence had been passed back to members of the grooming gang. That institutional betrayal placed her at renewed risk and compounded the original abuse. She also recounted something even more disturbing. The men who groomed her told her explicitly that they targeted her because she was white and that their aim was to destroy white girls. The starkness of her testimony stripped away any remaining illusions about the ideological framing that has often surrounded these crimes.

Listening to Fiona, what struck me was not only the brutality of what she endured, but the nature of the state’s response. Fiona explained that her claims were subjected to extraordinary scrutiny. She was examined by ten attorneys, her credibility tested repeatedly before her story was taken seriously. This stood in sharp contrast to the cultural climate of the #MeToo era, when allegations of harassment were often treated as self-validating. Men whose names appeared on the “Shitty Media Men” list were publicly ruined without due process or serious examination of the accusers. The disparity raises uncomfortable questions about which victims are believed, which are doubted, and how ideology governs the distribution of moral concern.

The wider panel discussion was notable for its candor. Panelists criticized diversity and multiculturalism not as benign aspirations, but as governing ideologies that discourage honesty and enforce selective silence. It was repeatedly noted that in many cases connected to the grooming gang scandal, the individuals who faced punishment were not the professionals who ignored, enabled, or concealed abuse, but whistleblowers who attempted to raise concerns. Those who spoke out were disciplined, sidelined, or removed, while senior officials who presided over failure often escaped consequences altogether.

Several speakers sharply criticized politicians and senior security officials for ignoring, minimizing, or suppressing the scandal over many years. This pattern reflected not incompetence but fear, fear of reputational damage and fear of challenging ideological orthodoxy. Enforcement did not fail because institutions were incapable, but because they were unwilling.

One panelist in particular, Leila Cunningham—a prosecutor and Reform politician—was especially forthright.

Cunningham identified herself as Muslim and criticized what she described as police cowardice, arguing that law enforcement repeatedly failed to act decisively out of fear of being accused of racism. In her assessment, the grooming gang scandal amounted to a systemic cover-up by legal and political authorities.

Cunningham stated that local councils were aware of what was happening for years and yet chose inaction. This was not ignorance or bureaucratic delay, but deliberate suppression. The failure of councils, police forces, and senior officials to intervene represented a national shame, one that discredited Britain’s claims to moral seriousness and institutional competence.

She also argued that British institutions apply justice unevenly. When perpetrators are white, she claimed, the system acts swiftly and punitively. When offenders fall outside that category, it becomes hesitant and evasive. This asymmetry is not justice but ideology masquerading as principle. She further emphasized the class dimension of the scandal, pointing out that the victims were overwhelmingly working-class girls whose lack of social power made them easy to ignore.

In one of the evening’s most controversial moments, Cunningham argued that elements within Pakistani immigrant communities had encouraged what she described as “rape tourism” and that Britain’s immigration and visa regime had failed to respond. She called for strict visa bans and enforcement measures against countries that refuse to take back convicted offenders, naming Pakistan explicitly. Whether one agreed with her conclusions or not, the bluntness of her language stood in stark contrast to decades of official euphemism.

These criticisms of multicultural orthodoxy were reinforced by Labour peer Lord Maurice Glassman, who criticized multiculturalism as an ideology that deters solidarity. By fragmenting society into competing identity groups, he argued, multiculturalism had weakened shared moral obligations and eroded the foundations of working-class politics.

Despite the severity of the subject, the atmosphere in the room was introspective rather than confrontational. The audience was largely composed of elite professionals, yet there was a palpable sense of unease. During the question-and-answer session, a man of Pakistani descent criticized the media for its longstanding refusal to speak honestly about the ethnicity of the groomers. He accused journalists of deliberately suppressing factual description and of turning truth-telling itself into a punishable offence. The reflex, he argued, was not to investigate wrongdoing, but to manage narratives.

It was only after hearing these accounts and observing the broader patterns of selective enforcement that the evening’s discussion began to coalesce into a sharper insight, one that echoes the warnings of the late political theorist Sam Francis. What unfolded before us was a clear case of anarcho-tyranny—a system in which the state withdraws from enforcing basic law and order where it is most needed, while simultaneously expanding its authority over thought, speech, and symbolic behavior. Police and councils proved incapable or unwilling to protect vulnerable girls, yet the same institutions have shown remarkable zeal in punishing those who defy approved narratives.

Across Europe, governments increasingly appear more interested in prosecuting thought crimes than confronting serious harm. In Britain, Sam Melia sits in prison for posting stickers reading, “It’s OK to be white,” while blogger Pete North was reportedly arrested for sharing an anti-Hamas meme. In Germany, a woman was given a harsher sentence for insulting her attacker, calling him a “disgraceful rapist pig,” than the rapist himself received for the crime.

Words are treated as dangerous, while actions are often tolerated or excused.

By the end of the evening, it was difficult to ignore the sense that something was shifting. The event suggested a broader ideological change, even within elite environments long aligned with liberal orthodoxies. There was a growing willingness to question the dogmas of diversity and multiculturalism, and an emerging resistance to what several speakers openly described as liberal, anti-white politics. More fundamentally, there was a dawning recognition that a state which punishes speech while tolerating predation is not compassionate or progressive, but decadent. Whether this shift will endure remains uncertain, but the discussion itself felt like a decisive break from years of silence, deflection, and managed anarchy.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has unveiled a critical minerals agreement with Kazakhstan on Thursday as Western governments move to shift supply chains away from China, moving ahead on London’s plans to diversify its critical mineral sourcing.

This after the British government in its Critical Mineral Strategy published last year identified Kazakhstan as producing 22 of the 36 minerals identified in the report as vital and needed by Britain.

Britain’s top diplomat is hosting foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at Lancaster House in London – and Beijing officials are no doubt watching closely from afar.

“Central Asia is an important region with huge potential to boost economic growth,” Cooper said in a statement to Politico. “These agreements deliver for British businesses, strengthen economic security and are a clear demonstration of U.K. support for the independence of the Central Asian states.”

A memorandum of understanding has been signed by Kazakhstan’s Deputy Industry Minister Olzhas Saparbekov and UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant, amid the summit.

Kazakhstan supplies more than 40% of the world’s uranium and ranks among the top producers of titanium. It is also a top-ten exporter of copper and zinc.

Needless to say, this makes the central Asian country a top competitor to China – and thus ‘alternative’ source for the West – given it has huge rare Earth deposits that could power the next tech boom.

“Unlike in the West, Central Asian governments are enthusiastic about the prospect of turning their vast deposits of [rare earth minerals and rare metals] into a new source of revenue for the local economies,” a prior report in The Interpreter stated.

“The U.K. set out a Critical Minerals Strategy last November to ensure that by 2035 no more than 60 percent of Britain’s supply of any one critical mineral comes from a single country.” —Politico

Chinese firms have have also recently invested heavily in Kazakh copper, aluminum, and rare earth projects – driven by President Xi’s long-running and ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

“The shortages center on rare earths such as yttrium and scandium, niche members of the family of 17 elements, which play tiny but vital roles in defence technology, aerospace and semiconductors and are almost entirely produced in China.” https://t.co/SRJffJXj1c

— Shehzad Qazi (@shehzadhqazi) February 26, 2026

As we’ve highlighted previously – and something the UK, US, and Europe are belatedly becoming fully aware of – Beijing has been eagerly acquiring rare earth reserves and contracts in emerging markets across the world for years now, resulting in what is currently an effective chokehold on global supply chains.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

McDonald’s latest marketing stunt in Germany syncs billboards to show empty packaging by day and full meals only after sunset, drawing backlash for prioritizing a minority’s religious observance over the broader customer base.

As Ramadan unfolds, McDonald’s Germany has rolled out a campaign that effectively erases tempting food visuals from digital billboards during fasting hours, a move seen by critics as yet another concession to cultural shifts driven by mass immigration.

The fast food chain’s digital out-of-home posters display empty fries containers and burger boxes throughout the day, filling them with food images precisely at sunset when Muslims break their fast. 

🇩🇪 In Germany, McDonald’s has removed food images from its billboards during daylight hours for Ramadan

McDonald’s Germany launched a new outdoor campaign in which digital billboards sync with the sun, revealing food only after dark throughout the month of Ramadan. pic.twitter.com/iG3lcXdafj

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 25, 2026

According to Newsweek, the ads carry the message “Happy Ramadan” and use sun-synced data tied to local prayer times to trigger the switch from empty to full.

McDonald’s Duitsland heeft een gimmick bedacht om moslims te pleasen tijdens de Ramadan.

Van zonsopgang tot zonsondergang is er geen eten te zien in de reclames van de vunzige hamburgerboer dat dan weer terugkomt wanneer het iftartijd is geworden.#Ramadan @McDonalds #Ramadan pic.twitter.com/c68aplm5Ev

— widtvoet (@widtvoet) February 26, 2026

The post sparked sharp reactions online. One user remarked: “What a great way to ignore the majority of your customers ????”

Another called it: “This is a sign that your country has been conquered without a shot fired.”

A third questioned: “Great idea if you are in the Middle East. What about the non-Muslims? Or do we not count any more?”

This campaign echoes recent events underscoring tensions around cultural accommodation in the West. 

Just days ago, videos of thousands of Muslims gathering for Ramadan prayers in New York City’s Times Square went viral, with observers labeling it a “disturbing display” amid chants of “Allahu Akbar.” Professor Gad Saad quipped sarcastically: “What’s the big deal!? Just a bunch of pious men praying to Allah. I’m sure that it will all work out.”

That incident is tied to broader controversies, including Rep. Randy Fine’s response to activist Nerdeen Kiswani’s claim that dogs are “unclean.” 

Fine announced the “Protecting Puppies from Sharia Act,” aimed at withholding federal funds from areas banning dogs as pets, highlighting concerns over cultural shifts in regions with expanding Muslim communities.

Across the Atlantic, a similar dynamic played out in London, where a Metropolitan Police officer defended a Christian preacher’s right to free speech against an angry crowd in Whitechapel, declaring: “In this country, we have freedom of speech.” 

She added: “I understand that you guys don’t want to hear it, so I would just recommend that you walk away and don’t listen to him. He’s not in your home.”

The episode raised questions about inconsistent policing, contrasting with past arrests of preachers like Pastor John Sherwood for expressing biblical views on family.

These developments paint a picture of Western institutions—from corporations to law enforcement—yielding ground to avoid offense, often at the expense of longstanding traditions and majority norms. 

In Germany, home to millions of Muslim residents following waves of migration, such gestures risk alienating the wider public while fueling debates over integration.

As globalism pushes for unchecked diversity, moves like McDonald’s billboard tweak serve as reminders that true coexistence demands mutual respect, not one-sided surrender. Defending core Western values remains essential to preserve the freedoms that built these societie

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

China has removed nine military lawmakers from its national parliament, escalating President Xi Jinping’s purge of senior defense officials, which has been a months-long trend, tracked closely by global headlines.

In this latest move, first reported internationally by Bloomberg Thursday, the country’s top legislative body stripped Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support Force Political Commissar Li Wei of their seats, along with seven other officers.

The dismissals were handed down this week, with state-run Xinhua reporting from the 14th National People’s Congress that those targeted include Ground Force’s chief Ding Laifu; Central Military Commission officials Bian Ruifeng and Wang Donghai; Navy officers Shen Jinlong and Qin Shengxiang; Air Force’s Yu Zhongfu; and Rocket Force’s Yang Guang. 

State media has not immediately issued details for the dismissals, or specifics on investigations. Back in late January, when Xi’s own right-hand military man, Gen. Zhang Youxia – at the time vice chairman of the Central Military Commission – was abruptly removed, the charge was simply “grave violations of discipline and the law.”

Such language is often presented in such crackdowns as a euphemism for corruption, which President Xi has in the recent past described as “the biggest threat”. But critics as well as Western observers say this has served as a convenient and public PR mechanism for sidelining political rivals, and strengthening Xi’s power and hold on the levers of power.

Such is likely also the case with the new firings of these nine military officials. In this fresh case, Beijing has only offered that the officials are suspected of “serious discipline and law violations” – again, just like with the ambiguous Zhang Youxia case.

Xi sent a campaign to eliminate corruption in the armed forces into overdrive around mid-2023, months after securing a precedent-defying third term. Since then, authorities have ousted two vice chairmen of the military commission, three CMC members, a former defense minister, and at least a dozen senior generals who commanded major military units, and possibly many dozens – or perhaps even hundreds – of other officers.

A former CIA analyst who follows Chinese elite politics, Christopher K. Johnson, recently told the NY Times of the ongoing purge trend, “This move is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese military and represents the total annihilation of the high command.”

The PLA has seen significant internal turmoil, especially since the Communist Party’s 20th Congress in late 2022. Several top military figures – including Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, and CMC Political Work Department head Miao Hua – have disappeared or been removed, and many more followed. 

How Xi’s military purges could hamper China’s ability to fight

Two new studies document the crackdown and raise questions about the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to carry out large-scale operations, such as a potential assault on Taiwan.https://t.co/NlKJO7iebT

— Taiwan News 247 (@TaiwanNews247) February 26, 2026

In China, the military is controlled by the Communist Party, not the state, and survival at the top depends on absolute loyalty. Even the most senior and trusted officers are not safe in today’s political climate.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Russia’s control over it, whether through Ukraine’s withdrawal or forcible expulsion, is considered to be the basis of the US’ peace plan that the Brits and French are dangerously trying to subvert.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported on the four-year anniversary of the special operation that the Brits and French are plotting to help Ukraine go nuclear. The alleged plan is to provide it with relevant European components and equipment that would then be misrepresented to the world as proof of a domestically developed nuclear program. They’ll also give it at least one actual warhead and/or materials for a dirty bomb.

The purpose is to give Ukraine an edge over Russia in the negotiations.

Zelensky recently claimed that “Both the Americans and the Russians say that if you want the war to end tomorrow, get out of Donbas”, which he flat-out refuses to do, emboldened as he’s been by European support led first and foremost by the Brits and French.

The first are considered to be the masterminds behind various anti-Russian provocations, including false flag plots that Moscow warned about but which never materialized, while the second has been leading the charge to send NATO troops to Ukraine.

Russia has been tight-lipped about what compromises it might consider in exchange for Ukraine at the very least withdrawing from Donbass due to the confidential nature of the negotiations, but it’s possible that its compliance with this demand could lead to a ceasefire. Zelensky and his top two European backers don’t want that even though the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas claimed, regardless of whether one agrees with her, that “Moscow has failed to achieve any of its strategic objectives” so far.

Therefore, the Brits and French want Ukraine to go nuclear out of desperation to hold onto Donbass at minimum, the Kiev-controlled remainder of which consists of the country’s top military fortifications. They expect that Russia would then agree to a ceasefire along the frontlines if Ukraine obtains nuclear capabilities, even if only a dirty bomb, and threatens to use them if it doesn’t comply. At most, this could also hypothetically be leveraged to get it to withdraw from all the territory that Kiev claims as its own.

The reality is that Russia won’t accept a nuclear-armed Ukraine. Putin alluded to Zelensky’s speech at the 2022 Munich Security Conference in which he threatened to revoke Ukraine’s participation in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which it transferred Soviet nukes (that were always under Moscow’s control and never Kiev’s) to Russia in his address to the nation announcing the special operation. Most Russian-friendly observers accordingly expect Russia to not let this happen under any circumstances.

Head of the Duma’s Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov debunked the scenario of Ukraine developing its own nuclear program in fall 2024 after Zelensky sensationally suggested going down this route if it’s kept out of NATO before walking his words back later that same day. With that in mind, Russia certainly knows that the only way for Ukraine to obtain nukes is from the Brits and/or French, and any attempt to do so would amount to them going behind Trump’s back to subvert his peace plan.

The gist is that Trump reportedly wants Putin to freeze the conflict if Ukraine withdraws from Donbass or is forcibly expelled from there, with the incentive to do so being a resource-centric strategic partnership between Russia and the US. Regardless of whether or not Putin would agree to this, the point is that the Brits and French’s efforts to help Ukraine go nuclear out of desperation to hold onto Donbass undermine the basis of Trump’s peace plan, so he should thus do everything to stop them if he truly wants peace.

Authored by Paul Crespo via RealClearWire,

As many focus on the world’s largest island, Greenland, and President Trump’s aggressive efforts to acquire it, another strategic Arctic island, nearby Svalbard, may be an even more likely future point of contention and conflict.

Not a conflict between the United States and Denmark, or the U.S. and NATO, but between Russia and Norway, and perhaps all of NATO.

Or maybe not with NATO. This is because Svalbard, is not just sovereign territory of Norway, but also has legally established Russian settlements dating back two centuries. And that makes Svalbard uniquely dangerous.

Svalbard, more properly an archipelago, about twice the size of Belgium, with total population of about 2,500, nominally belongs to Norway, but under the terms of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, certain countries, including the United States, Denmark, China, and Russia have rights of access.

While Norway claims sovereignty, Russia, which has the second largest population on the islands and two long-standing Soviet-era settlements, frequently contests Norway’s claim.

This long-standing presence is one of the main justifications for the Russians laying their own claim to being the second major arbiter of what happens on Svalbard, after Norway.

And China, since 2004, now has a polar research facility, Yellow River Station, with links to its military, on Svalbard, further complicating the strategic equation.

Strategically located just 429 miles east of Greenland at its closest, Svalbard is the northernmost populated land in the world. It lies 404 miles north of the Norwegian mainland and just 621 miles from the North Pole and enjoys ice-free anchorage in the south.

My Visit to Svalbard

I visited Svalbard in June and July of 2025 for almost a month, staying in the capital Longyearbyen as well as the two Russian settlements, Barentsburg and Pyramiden. Two years earlier, Tom Cruise filmed parts of his recent film, “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning,” on Svalbard.

Just days prior to our visit, Norway’s 88-year-old King Harald and Queen Sonja—as well as Vladimir Putin’s trouble-making Russian Orthodox bishop Vladika Iakov, known for promoting Russian territorial claims in the Arctic—made competing visits to the island at the same time, albeit in different locations.

The Kremlin is using the Orthodox Church as a spiritual weapon to create a narrative that the Arctic belongs to Moscow. In the same vein, King Harald’s visit was also intended to demonstrate that Norway’s sovereignty of Svalbard remains solid.

Russian Presence

Today, the Russian presence is far smaller than during its Soviet-era heyday, when its two coal-mining towns, Barentsburg and Pyramiden, alone had a combined population of almost 2,500—or when Russians outnumbered Norwegians on Svalbard by nearly 2.5 to 1.

Now there are barely 500 Russians there, although their numbers are greatly outsized by their puffed-up presence.

Pyramiden is now a ghost town, boasting the world’s northernmost statue of Lenin, and a treasure trove of Soviet-era artifacts and buildings (with only a skeleton crew of caretakers, usually less than 10), while Barentsburg, still an active mining town (for now), hosts a few hundred Russians.

The Russian flag flies there, and occasionally nostalgic Soviet ones as well, and there is also a Russian Orthodox Church closely tied to Putin’s regime. There is also a heliport at Pyramiden for use by two Russian Mi-8 helicopters on Svalbard.

Barentsburg also hosts a heliport, and the Russian helicopters use the facilities at Longyearbyen Airport in the capital as well.

An unmarked black van driven by a chain-smoking Russian in a black leather mobster jacket quietly picked us up from our hotel in Svalbard’s capital on the way to Pyramiden.

When we arrived at the Russian town of Pyramiden, the hotel staff quickly noted that they already knew who I was. So much for my visit remaining under the radar.

Later, after we visited the old Russian consulate in Barentsburg, painted a mint green, now a museum, the Russian “museum guide” briskly rushed to the new secure Russian consulate just behind the old one, to the left in brick color, likely to file her report on me.

Why Svalbard Matters

While largely unknown to the general public, Svalbard is critical to global communications as it also hosts the Svalbard Satellite Station (SvalSat), the world’s largest ground-based satellite communication and tracking installation, located on a flat mountain plateau just above the capital town of Longyearbyen.

The site comprises 170 massive radio domes, radomes, containing huge dish antennae to track and communicate with satellites for everything from weather observation, maritime surveillance, navigation, and search and rescue.

In 2021, Russia complained about Norway’s satellite infrastructure, claiming the SvalSat station violated the treaty because it is a “dual-use” facility with potential military uses.

While administered by Norway, Svalbard is a demilitarized territory, The 1920 treaty prohibits the use of the archipelago for “warlike purposes.”

Only a very small Norwegian police force is allowed on the island. It is fully integrated into the Norwegian police system but operates as a specialized district.

The Governor of Svalbard has the same authority as a chief of police on the Norwegian mainland.

Svalbard Is Demilitarized

Norwegian police jurisdiction includes the entire archipelago and its territorial sea focused on environmental crime, search and rescue (SAR), and keeping public order.

However, as of 2026, the police are monitoring increased Russian intelligence activity, espionage, and potential threats to infrastructure in the region.

Of note, when I landed in Svalbard in June, I quickly noticed several fit, Russian-speaking, military-aged men in civilian clothes at the airport, with military style packs and bags. They immediately began scouting around with binoculars.

One can only speculate if they were GRU, Russian military intelligence, or something just as sinister.

Following the letter of the law in the treaty, Norwegian coast guard ships patrol the fiords for months at a time, but don’t dock.

While there, I witnessed a modern Norwegian coast guard ship, the KV Jan Mayen (W310)—the lead ship of the new class of offshore patrol boats—cruising nearby during our entire visit.

Having a lawfully allowed Russian presence on the island and being required by treaty to remain demilitarized, makes Svalbard’s connection to NATO and ensuring it falls under Alliance protection, potentially problematic.

But, just as a look at a polar projection map shows how vital Greenland is to North America, a glance at the map reveals why Svalbard’s location matters to Russia. The Kola peninsula, key to Russia’s nuclear capabilities, is immediately to Svalbard’s southeast.

The Russian Threat

Russia’s growing northern fleet is also based north of Murmansk, and Franz Josef Land archipelago, annexed from Norway by the Soviets in 1926, hosts major Russian military assets, and lies about 250 miles to the east and partly to the north of Svalbard.

Russia constructed a new air base on Franz Josef Land in 2021, publicly justifying it to defend their nuclear weapons on the Kola Peninsula. It uses its base there to threaten the surrounding areas around it, including Svalbard.

As noted by Arctic Today in September 2025:

“Russia has significantly strengthened its military presence at the archipelago. The Nagurskoye base today includes a major building complex, an airfield and powerful arms, including the Bastion system, a Monolit-B coastal radar, as well as anti-drone equipment. In a bid to intimidate Norway and its NATO allies, the Russian war ministry emphasizes that the onyx missiles are ‘almost undetectable’ for modern air defense systems and capable of ‘destroying naval vessels of any size at distances of up to several hundred kilometers.’ …

“As part of Zapad-2025, Russia this week also conducted mock strikes with its Kinzhal missile over the Barents Sea. Also the coastal missile system Bal has been engaged, according to the Russian armed forces on Telegram.

“Launch of missile Uran from coastal missile complex Bal. Video by Russian armed forces. Large areas in the Barents Sea have been sealed off in connection with the training. Several of the areas are in the Norwegian exclusive economic zone. According to Northern Sentry, a Norwegian account on X with focus on the High North, one of the exercise scenarios of Zapad-2025 is an attack of Svalbard and subsequent occupation of the archipelago.”

Also, during the Zapad-2025 exercise, according to Arctic Today, a key target in the exercise was an imagined enemy flotilla in the Barents Sea.

The scenario included the landing of Russian troops, weapons and armored vehicles from the landing ship Aleksandr Otrakovsky, and the destruction of imagined enemy saboteurs that had infiltrated the archipelago.

Meanwhile, there have been growing tensions between Norway and Russia on Svalbard.

Growing Tensions

In January 2022, one of two key undersea fiber optic cables connecting mainland Norway to Svalbard was damaged in the Greenland Sea. The Svalbard Undersea Cable System is crucial for satellite data. Russian sabotage was suspected though never proven.

Later, in June 2022, a small crisis also highlighted how Russia could easily escalate a local incident into an excuse for military action.

Norway’s Foreign Ministry denied Russian state-owned coal mining company Arktikugol’s request to open a supply route to Barentsburg, citing sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia responded quickly.

Norway’s actions, the Russians claimed, “violated the provisions” of the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, which grants citizens of all signatory nations, including Russia, equal access to the archipelago’s resources.

“Following Norway’s actions, the sovereignty of this country over Svalbard is a big question from now on,” Russian Senator Andrei Klishas said.

Norway’s Foreign Minister denied that Oslo had violated the Svalbard Treaty, saying the shipment “has been stopped on the basis of the sanctions that prohibit Russian road transport companies from transporting goods on Norwegian territory.”

The next month, Norway allowed the goods to be shipped to Barentsburg, relieving the immediate tension.

Still, Russia’s recent rhetoric suggests Svalbard may be a growing target in Moscow’s sights.

In 2023 Russian officials ramped things up and skirted the letter of the law of the 1920 treaty by holding a military style parade down the main street in Barentsburg, including flying a helicopter overhead.

The blatantly militarized display created a lot of concern in Norway.

China Also Eyeing Svalbard

But Russia isn’t the only threat to Svalbard. China, now closely allied to Russia, has been showing increasing interest in Svalbard, and the High North in general, calling itself a “near-Arctic” power.

The Chosen recently reported how the Chinese, who have a had a polar research station on the island for 20 years, are aggressively trying to infiltrate Svalbard as well, and how Norway has responded:

“In July 2024, controversy arose when cruise tourists from Shanghai and Hong Kong took photos saluting in military uniforms while waving Chinese flags in front of a granite lion statue at a Chinese base within the Svalbard archipelago. Despite repeated orders from Norway, China has not removed the [two] statue[s].

“Norway has implemented control measures, including prohibiting foreign sales of private property in Svalbard and denying Chinese students permission to study at local universities on security grounds. It has also restricted voting rights previously allowed to foreign residents, permitting them only if they have resided in mainland Norway for over three years. State Secretary Eivind Vad Petersson stated, ‘No country grants voting rights to foreigners. The Svalbard Treaty guarantees ‘equal access’ but not ‘equal rights.’”

Meanwhile, members of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party believe the Chinese, who have access to a powerful radar system that monitors space weather and the atmosphere, are performing military research on Svalbard, which is not allowed under the treaty.

According to an online portal, at least three current research projects using data gathered from on Svalbard have been shared with the China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, a Chinese defense organization.

So, China is now also showing a growing, likely military, interest in Svalbard, making it part of the new Cold War occurring in the far north. And potentially the next crisis flashpoint in the Arctic.

The following has made for quite the headline, as a retired elite US Air Force pilot is in very hot water and faces US intelligence and military questioning: “A former US Air Force fighter pilot with more than two decades of experience with nuclear delivery systems and aircraft, including advanced F-35 stealth jets, has been arrested and charged with conspiring to help the Chinese military,” according to CNN.

65-year old Gerald Eddie Brown Jr. was arrested in Jeffersonville, Indiana, on Wednesday after one or more lengthy recent trips to China where it’s believed he not only briefed officials from China’s defense establishment, but provided training for Chinese PLA military pilots. 

US interrogators are said to be most alarmed at Brown’s vast experience with America’s most advanced stealth jet – the Lockheed Martin F-35, as well as nuclear delivery systems and tactics.

“Providing US military training to our adversaries represents a significant threat to national security,” Lee Russ, executive director of the Air Force Office of Special Investigations Office of Special Project, said in an official statement after the retired Air Force pilot’s arrest. He’s specifically accused of violating the Arms Export Control Act 

Brown retired as a major all the way back in 1996, having served 24 years of active duty Air Force, but he has since been a top US Air Force adviser and trainer of US combat pilots. As Fox reviews:

During his career, he commanded units responsible for nuclear weapons delivery systems, led combat missions and worked as a fighter pilot and simulator instructor on aircraft including the F-4, F-15, F-16 and A-10. After leaving the military, Brown worked as a commercial cargo pilot and later as a contract simulator instructor training U.S. pilots to fly the A-10 and the F-35 Lightning II.

The US Attorney’s statement alleged that while in China “Brown answered questions for three hours about the U.S. Air Force on his first day in the PRC and then, on his second day, prepared and presented a brief about himself for the PLAAF,” the statement said. The rest of the time he trained Chinese pilots.”

FBI New York Assistant Director in Charge James Barnacle followed with: “Brown’s alleged betrayal exposed sensitive military tactics, threatening the security of our nation, our armed forces, and our allies.”

Apparently Brown wasn’t quiet at all about his activities in China, and which also comes at a moment of military tensions around Taiwan and in the South China Sea:

According to the complaint, Brown began negotiating a contract “in or around” August 2023 to train Chinese military pilots, working through a co-conspirator who dealt with Stephen Su Bin, a Chinese national previously convicted in the U.S. of conspiring to hack into the computer networks of major American defense contractors and steal sensitive military data.

Prosecutors say Brown made clear in those discussions that he intended to train Chinese pilots in combat aircraft operations. In a résumé, he listed his objective as “Instructor Fighter Pilot” and later wrote that, upon arriving in China, “Now…. I have the chance to fly and instruct fighter pilots again!”

A former American pilot has in recent years been prosecuted by the DOJ under similar circumstances related to instructing PLA pilots: “Former US Marine Corps pilot Daniel Duggan was charged in 2017 of violating the Arms Export Control Act, specifically for allegedly helping Chinese pilots learn aircraft carrier operations,” notes CNN.

It’s understandable that the US government gets extremely nervous about active or retired officials with nuclear secrets going abroad to rival nations, but there’s some lingering questions of consistency. For example, what about Blackwater founder Erik Prince, whose Chinese military ties are so well known as to be featured in his permanent Wikipedia page?

Prince co-founded a firm called Frontier Services Group and until April 13, 2021 he was also chairman. Frontier Services Group is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Frontier Services Group is backed by China’s state-owned CITIC Group and Hong Kong-based investor Johnson Chun Shun Ko [zh], with the Chinese government listed as the largest investor. Prince advised and supported Chinese mining and construction firms in Africa.

In May 2017, FSG acquired a 25% stake in a Chinese private security training school called the International Security Defense College, located in Beijing. The college provides training in counterterrorism, high-risk operations, and overseas security for military, law enforcement, and private personnel. FSG has since overseen the school’s program of training “overseas security specialists”.

There’s a good chance that if Brown, on the other hand, was close personal friends with various Trump admin officials, the US government would be looking the other way.

Yet the Intel committee, of which you chair, didn’t ask Erik Prince a single question *when he was under oath* about his security company which is based in China and whose investment arm is his biggest shareholder. https://t.co/TfT9Mot4rD

— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) March 26, 2018

Also, the same scenario could have played out with a more ‘friendly’ country and the investigators probably would not have come knocking. But military tech secrets and China remains a hot, sensitive issue at this moment.