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Michelob Ultra Surpasses Bud Light As Top Draft Beer, Data Shows

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Michelob Ultra Surpasses Bud Light As Top Draft Beer, Data Shows

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Bud Light, once the reigning champion of American draft beers, continues to experience a decline in its market position.

According to a statement from Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bud Light has been surpassed by Michelob Ultra, also owned by the company, as the top draft beer in the United States. Anheuser-Busch also owns Corona, Budweiser, and Stella Artois, among other popular beer brands.

Six packs of Michelob Ultra and Bud Light are displayed at a grocery store in San Anselmo, Calif., on Dec. 16, 2024. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

“We’re proud to have the top two beers on draft in the U.S. in Michelob Ultra and Bud Light, and by our data, Bud Light is more than 30% bigger than the next closest competitor,” the spokesperson told NTD News in an emailed statement, citing public Circana data.

They said beyond just draft beers, Michelob Ultra is leading the industry as the number one overall fastest-growing beer in the United States and also the second overall beer brand in the country, behind Bud Light in that category.

This shift in rankings followed a difficult year for Bud Light, which faced a widespread boycott.

In July, Bud Light fell to third place in overall sales at grocery and convenience stores during the critical period between Memorial Day and July 4th. Michelob Ultra claimed the second spot, while Modelo Especial, manufactured by rival Constellation Brands, secured the top position.

The boycott, which began in response to Bud Light’s partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, has had far-reaching impacts for Anheuser-Busch InBev.

In May, the company reported its first-quarter earnings results for 2024, which showed a 9.1 percent decrease in revenues in the United States, primarily attributed to a drop in Bud Light volume. During the same period, Anheuser-Busch reported global revenues increased by 2.6 percent, largely due to strong sales of Corona beer outside of Mexico. Overall revenue rose to $14.5 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of $14.3 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

At the time, Anheuser-Busch CEO Michel Doukeris said he was optimistic about the company’s performance.

“The strength of the beer category, our diversified global footprint and the continued momentum of our megabrands delivered another quarter of broad-based top-and bottom-line growth,” Doukeris said.

“We are encouraged by our results to start the year, and the consistent execution by our teams and partners reinforces our confidence in delivering on our 2024 growth ambitions.”

In an effort to rebuild its image, Anheuser-Busch has undertaken several strategic partnerships.

The company became the “official beer partner” of the UFC, a mixed martial arts league, and secured sponsorship deals with the U.S. Olympic team for its Michelob Ultra brand. Additionally, Corona Cero, AB InBev’s zero-alcohol beer, will be the global beer sponsor of the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

From NTD News

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 17:30

High Altitude Unmanned Balloon Passes Near DC, New Jersey

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High Altitude Unmanned Balloon Passes Near DC, New Jersey

A high-altitude unmanned balloon once operated by Loon, formerly an Alphabet subsidiary and now registered to Raven Aerostar as “N254TH,” traveled just north of the Baltimore-Washington, DC, airspace at 64,500 feet, moving east at 34 mph towards New Jersey. 

Data from FlightAware indicates that N254TH launched from Dangel Airport in South Dakota on Monday and has since traversed the eastern half of the US, now making its way into Delaware and soon New Jersey

Zooming in…

Balloon website Stratocat provided more details about the balloon under Loon’s prior ownership: 

Project Loon was an initiative to establish a network of high altitude unmanned balloons to provide Internet connectivity in underserved parts of the world or during disaster recovery efforts. The project started in 2011 and became public in 2013 as part of Google’s research and development of new technologies carried out through X Development LLC.

Loon, formerly an Alphabet subsidiary, was shuttered in 2021—the project aimed to provide high-speed internet to remote parts of the world. However, Elon Musk’s Starlink has largely taken over that role with its low Earth orbit satellites. 

Meanwhile, on X…

In addition to drones, residents of New Jersey will now have a giant balloon to speculate about.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 17:05

Supreme Court Agrees To Hear TikTok Appeal

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Supreme Court Agrees To Hear TikTok Appeal

By Catherine Yang of Epoch Times

The U.S. Supreme Court on Dec. 18 agreed to hear TikTok’s case challenging a law requiring its China-based parent company to divest of the app by Jan. 19, 2025.

The court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 10, 2025.

TikTok had challenged the divestment law as unconstitutional under the First Amendment, and a three-judge panel in federal court had upheld the law earlier this month.

TikTok then appealed to the high court asking for a pause of the Jan. 19 deadline and asking it to treat its petition as one for review.

The Supreme Court wrote on Dec. 18 that it will hear arguments in the case before deciding whether to pause the deadline.

When President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) into law, it started a 270-day countdown for ByteDance to divest of TikTok or else stop operating the app in the United States. The law targets apps owned or controlled by foreign adversaries, in this case, the Chinese communist regime.

The law also allows the president to issue a one-time extension of a maximum of 90 days.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he can facilitate a sale of TikTok, which would prevent what TikTok calls a “ban.”  TikTok is arguing the deadline should be paused so the new administration can make the call.

The Justice Department argued the law did not violate the First Amendment because it targeted ownership by a foreign adversary for national security reasons, and that it did not target content.

The Supreme Court directed parties to argue on “whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, as applied to petitioners, violates the First Amendment.”

The parties have a Dec. 27 deadline to file opening briefs, and a Jan. 3, 2025, deadline for reply briefs. Amicus briefs have a Dec. 27 deadline. Oral arguments will last two hours.

TikTok argued in its Supreme Court petition that the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in finding that PAFACA satisfied “strict scrutiny” regarding whether it infringed on the right to free speech and that the court did not properly review the law under that standard.

TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, and a group of TikTok users argued that PAFACA was used to single out and target a specific speech platform and does not treat other apps equally.

Continue reading at Epoch Times

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 14:45

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Inflation Data Surges

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Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Inflation Data Surges

This should be good…

How is Fed Chair Powell going to explain why The Fed just cut rates AGAIN, despite inflation and growth (hard data) surprising dramatically to the upside? (with one dissent seeing sense and urging no cuts).

…and if they claim that “rates are still restrictive” – show them this… financial conditions are at their loosest since before The Fed started hiking rates…

Still we are sure that Powell will find a way to navigate the ‘tough’ questions from various economics reporters, leveraging the hawkish adjustments to the dots and inflation forecasts…

With Trump at the helm again, we wonder just how committed to the rate-cutting cycle Powell and his pals really are now – especially since they appear to have decided that Trump’s policies will be inflationary.

…so rate-cuts were transitory too?

Watch Fed Chair Powell live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 14:25

Hawkish Fed Cut Rates As Expected; Signals Dramatically Less Aggressive Rate-Cut Cycle

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Hawkish Fed Cut Rates As Expected; Signals Dramatically Less Aggressive Rate-Cut Cycle

Tl;dr: The Fed has clearly decided that Trump’s policies will be inflationary – ignoring for a moment the forced-hand of a rate-cut today, they hiked their inflation and interest rate forecasts dramatically, with the latter catching up to the hawkish market’s perception.

But despite the hawkish shift, they see the unemployment rate basically unchanged from where it is now…

We’ll see which of those is wrong soon…

Just a reminder – The Fed slashed rates by a dramatic 50bps (crisis-like move) less than 3 months ago!! And now – post-election – things are completely different.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting – on November 7th – the dollar and stocks have rallied while gold and oil have lagged as the dollar flatlined (amid significant volatility on the way from various macro data surprises)…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notable is the fact that inflation data has dramatically surprised to the upside and ‘hard’ data (excluding sentiment/surveys) has also soared since The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that financial conditions are at around the same ‘looseness’ or ‘easiness’ as they were before the Fed started the rate-hiking cycle…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is fully priced for a cut today but as the chart below shows, expectations for 2025 cuts have collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

…prompting many to expect a so-called ‘hawkish cut’ today.

Fed members will also release a new Dot Plot today – we assume they will, as always, adjust towards the market which is currently dramatically more hawkish than the dots…

Source: Bloomberg

So what did The Fed do?

As expected and fully priced in, The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 4.25%-4.50% target range.

The Fed also cut its overnight reverse repo facility rate from 4.55% to 4.25%.

Key highlights suggest The Fed is anything but on an automatic easing path…

  • *FED TO ASSESS DATA REGARDING EXTENT, TIMING OF FUTURE MOVES

  • *FED SAYS CLEVELAND’S HAMMACK DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF NO RATE CUT

The Fed’s dots spiked significantly (as we warned), catching up to the market’s more hawkish views:

Breaking that down historically, 2025 expectations surged (catching up to the two cuts priced in by the market – from over 6 cuts earlier in the year)…

…and 2026 rate expectations are now at a record high…

The Fed also hiked its inflation forecast:

  • *FOMC MEDIAN 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST RISES TO 2.5% VS 2.1%

The Fed has clearly decided that Trump’s policies will be inflationary.

To summarize – The Fed expects lower unemployment than it did in September (barely above where it is now), dramatically higher inflation than it expected, and significantly higher rates.

And the punchline – kiss goodbye to the 2% inflation target…

There was nothing in the statement about QT – suggesting the pace of unwind will continue.

Now the question is – how will Powell spin this?

Read the redline of the statement below:

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 14:05

J6 Cmte Legal Cover? Censorship Cartel Funding? Spending Package Riddled With Weaponized Pork

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J6 Cmte Legal Cover? Censorship Cartel Funding? Spending Package Riddled With Weaponized Pork

Update (1308ET):

The new spending package isn’t just riddled with pork as detailed below, it’s packed full of weaponized pork.

For starters, it gives the Global Engagement Center – the government’s censorship juggernaut, additional funding.

It also contains language that allows Congress to block subpoenas for House data – which could prevent an investigation into the Jan. 6 committee:

New Biolab funding?

Vivek and Elon weigh in

Vivek Ramaswamy, who will be in charge of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) along with Elon Musk, has analyzed the bill:

Via X:

I wanted to read the full 1,500+ page bill & speak with key leaders before forming an opinion. Having done that, here’s my view: it’s full of excessive spending, special interest giveaways & pork barrel politics. If Congress wants to get serious about government efficiency, they should VOTE NO.

Keeping the government open until March 14 will cost ~$380BN by itself, but the true cost of this omnibus CR is far greater due to new spending. Renewing the Farm Bill for an extra year: ~$130BN. Disaster relief: $100BN. Stimulus for farmers: $10BN. The Francis Scott Key Bridge replacement: $8BN. The proposal adds at least 65 cents of new spending for every dollar of continued discretionary spending.

The legislation will end up hurting many of the people it purports to help. Debt-fueled spending sprees may “feel good” today, but it’s like showering cocaine on an addict: it’s not compassion, it’s cruelty. Farmers will see more land sold to foreign buyers when taxes inevitably rise to meet our obligations. Our children will be saddled with crippling debt. Interest payments will be the largest item in our national budget.

Congress has known about this deadline since they created it in late September. There’s no reason why this couldn’t have gone through the standard process, instead of being rushed to a vote right before Congressmen want to go home for the holidays. The urgency is 100% manufactured & designed to avoid serious public debate.  

The bill could have easily been under 20 pages. Instead, there are dozens of unrelated policy items crammed into the 1,547 pages of this bill. There’s no legitimate reason for them to be voted on as a package deal by a lame-duck Congress. 72 pages worth of “Pandemic Preparedness and Response” policy; renewal of the much-criticized “Global Engagement Center,” a key player in the federal censorship state; 17 different pieces of Commerce legislation; paving the way for a new football stadium in D.C.; a pay raise for Congressmen & Senators and making them eligible for Federal Employee Health Benefits. It’s indefensible to ram these measures through at the last second without debate.

We’re grateful for DOGE’s warm reception on Capitol Hill. Nearly everyone agrees we need a smaller & more streamlined federal government, but actions speak louder than words. This is an early test. The bill should fail.

*  *  *

Speaker Mike Johnson, (R-LA), has unveiled a 1,547-page government funding bill that has Republicans seeing red – and not just because of the looming Friday midnight shutdown deadline. Packed with disaster relief, farmer aid – oh, and they’re giving themselves a raise, the short-term spending bill is a hot mess of pork.

The bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), keeps the federal government funded through March 14, buying Congress a little breathing room. But in classic Capitol Hill fashion, the measure is loaded with provisions unrelated to basic spending – and House conservatives are furious, according to Punchbowl News.

  • $100 billion in disaster relief for hurricane-hit states.
  • $30 billion in economic assistance for farmers.
  • Restrictions on U.S. capital investment in China, a win for GOP hawks wary of Beijing’s influence.
  • A delay in the implementation of a “beneficial ownership” database meant to curb money laundering until 2026.
  • The transfer of RFK Stadium to the District of Columbia, clearing the way for a shiny new Washington Commanders stadium.
  • The relocation of an Air National Guard fighter squadron from D.C. to Maryland.
  • Even the American Music Tourism Act of 2024 got squeezed in

And what’s this?

They’ve also given themselves a pay raise through the resumption of the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA):

Since 2009, Congress has blocked COLA for lawmakers by inserting language into annual spending bills. While other federal employees receive regular pay increases, members of Congress have deliberately frozen their own salaries for over a decade.

The new CR, however, quietly amends language in a prior bill that blocked the member COLA, effectively clearing the way for a pay raise. As Bloomberg Government’s Jack Fitzpatrick first reported, the provision appears on page 15 of the 1,547-page bill and doesn’t state the pay increase explicitly.

Currently, members of Congress earn $174,000 annually—a substantial sum compared to the average American salary, but one that lawmakers argue no longer reflects the cost of serving in office. If COLA adjustments had been in place, their 2024 salaries would reach $243,300, according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report.

GOP Hardliners Demand Concessions

Johnson’s problems began Tuesday, when he sounded out hardliners on the House Rules Committee – Reps. Chip Roy (TX), Thomas Massie (KY), and Ralph Norman (SC) – to gauge their support for the bill. Unsurprisingly, the trio demanded a price for their cooperation:

  1. Adherence to the 72-hour rule to review the bill before voting.
  2. Spending offsets to counter the new funding.
  3. Restrictions on selling off border wall materials.

Johnson hasn’t agreed to these conditions, leaving him with little choice but to bring the CR to the floor under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage. A floor vote is expected Thursday, giving the Senate barely 24 hours to clear the bill before the clock strikes midnight Friday.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said he had “hoped to see @SpeakerJohnson grow a spine,” but “this bill full of pork shows he is a weak, weak man.“

“It’s silly to pretend this is just a skinny CR,” one GOP staffer told Punchbowl News. “It’s a three-month spending bill with ornaments hanging all over it.”

Meanwhile, conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus (HFC) are fuming at the bill’s scope and the speaker’s handling of the process. And GOP moderates are frustrated by the party’s inability to settle on a clean solution. Johnson, for his part, has no easy out – having opted for neither a clean CR nor a comprehensive omnibus spending package, and instead delivering a stopgap bill stuffed with unrelated provisions. Some hardliners are already withholding public support for Johnson ahead of his January 3 re-election bid for speaker, signaling that his light-handed leadership style may be backfiring.

Even Elon Musk has weighed in, voicing his displeasure online.

To which he essentially shrugged his shoulders.

Johnson has also pissed off the Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), over two trade programs: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and a program granting duty-free access to U.S. markets for Haitian apparel exports. While Smith was close to a deal to extend both programs for five years, Johnson allowed the Haiti trade program into the CR while leaving AGOA on the cutting-room floor.

With the shutdown deadline looming, Johnson has little time to spare. The House is expected to vote on the bill Thursday, but with opposition mounting from conservatives, passage under suspension of the rules is far from certain. If Johnson can’t corral enough votes, the federal government risks shutting down just as lawmakers prepare to leave town for the Christmas holiday.

For example, as X user @TexasLindsay_ notes:

The 1,547 page federal spending bill has so many outrageous things in it, it’s hard to know where to begin – but it without a doubt should NOT pass as-is. But a great example of why we need @doge  more than ever to reel in the governments insane spending & redundancies.

Highlights:

1. $8 BILLION—For Emergency Relief for damage caused by a cargo ship to the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, MD and 20 surrounding counties, including reconstruction of the bridge.

2. A section regarding our health agencies – has a lot of red flags – and appears to aim to limit what the new HHS Secretary (@RobertKennedyJr) can and cannot do:

“The Secretary may not revise the Vaccine Injury Table to include a vaccine for which the Centers for Disease Control &!Prevention has issued a recommendation for routine use in children or pregnant women until at least one application for such vaccine has been approved… Upon such revision of the Vaccine Injury Table, all vaccines in a vaccine category on the Vaccine Injury Table, including vaccines authorized under emergency use… shall be considered included in the Vaceine Injury Table and they also added “CLARIFICATION—Notwithstanding… an injury or death related to a vaceine administered at a time when the vaccine was a covered countermeasure subject to a declaration under section 319F-3(b) SHALL NOT BE ELIGIBLE FOR COMPENSATION under the Program.”

3. Drinking Water Infrastructure Risk & Resilience  Budget simply struck through their previous budget amount and just doubled their budgets across the board and updated the year(s)—because why not just double it.

From the bill:
—in paragraph (4), by strike: “$5,000,000′ and inserting “$10,000,000′;
—in paragraph (5) strike “$10,000,000′ and insert “$20,000,000′;
—in paragraph (6)—strike “$25,000,000′ and insert “$50,000,000”; & strike “2020 and 2021” and inserting “2026 and 2027”.

4. $3.5 BILLION— For Capital Improvement & Maintenance [p. 81]

5. $2.5 BILLION—For Nat’l Forest Maintenance, which designates $75,000,000 “for the construction or maintenance of shaded fuel breaks in the Pacific Regions” —a cool $75 mil for shady gas breaks.

6.  The Department of Commerce added language that will make them exempt from the “Freedom of Information Act” [p. 269]

(A federally funded government agency—especially one overseeing Commerce should not be granted exemption from public transparency via FOIA. Unacceptable.)

7. $30.7 BILLION—Ag Research: Various research projects, including many viewed as low priority/redundant with a need for scrutiny to improve efficiency.

8. $1.5 BILLION—Economic Development Admin: criticized for funding projects with low economic return or favoritism. (Orwellian title FTW)

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 14:01

Extending Olive Branch? Houthis Reportedly Plan Security Maritime Seminar With Shipping Insiders

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Extending Olive Branch? Houthis Reportedly Plan Security Maritime Seminar With Shipping Insiders

In a surprising move, Iran-backed Houthi rebels—responsible for dozens of attacks on Western-linked commercial vessels and warships in the critical maritime chokepoint of the Southern Red Sea—are reportedly planning to host a seminar and webinar on “security of navigation in the Red Sea.”

The shipping news website gCaptain, citing a report from the maritime publication TradeWinds, indicated that the Houthis are extending an olive branch to industry insiders by seeking input on the agenda for an upcoming conference on security and shipping, aimed at providing insights to “enrich the discussion.” 

Here’s more from gCaptain:

The email, sent to TradeWinds by an events manager for the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), is raising eyebrows across the shipping community. HOCC is the same entity that has issued threats to shipping companies and shipowners, including warnings earlier this year that vessels failing to cooperate with Houthi authorities would be “banned” from crossing the Red Sea.

Those warnings also included direct threats that ships calling at Israeli ports would be “directly targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces” in locations “deemed appropriate.”

In stark contrast, the latest email strikes a markedly softer tone. It invites industry participation to discuss the “current state of navigation security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden” and Yemen’s role in ensuring safe passage.

“Within the framework of enhancing cooperation and discussing issues of common interest,” the email reads, “your active participation will undoubtedly contribute to ensuring the success of this event and achieving the desired effect.”

Experts warn that responding could inadvertently legitimize the group’s actions.

The irony in all of this is that the Houthis have been responsible for disrupting global shipping in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for over a year, targeting Western-linked container ships, tankers, and military vessels.

Washington Institute’s Noam Raydan penned a note this week outlining, “Houthis effectively turned the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into an anti-access/area-denial zone” this year, launching attacks on at least 100 commercial ships and warships. 

Houthis are extending an olive branch to the shipping industry at a time when tanker flows through the critical maritime chokepoint are surging from the lows (according to Goldman analysts)…

Source: Goldman

… and also come when the Trump administration is about a month away from entering the White House with expected hardline counter-Houthi policies. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 13:40

“Free Speech Is A Human Right!” Professors Jonathan Turley & Dave Karpf Clash

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“Free Speech Is A Human Right!” Professors Jonathan Turley & Dave Karpf Clash

In a divide that says a lot about where Americans stand, depending on whom you ask “The Twitter Files” were a revolutionary exposé of government censorship or a “nothingburger”.

George Washington law professor and favorite among ZeroHedge readers Jonathan Turley debated his left-leaning GW colleague, David Karpf, on the preeminent speech question of our age: how to secure free online discourse. Moderated by Gene Epstein of The SoHo Forum, they discussed Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and whether its new form — X — has been a net positive for society.

We encourage readers to listen to the full debate (linked below), but for those short on time here were the key moments:

“Nothingburger”

After Musk released internal Twitter documents from the previous regime to journalists like Taibbi and Shellenberger, we often heard from the left and mainstream media that it was exaggerated excerpts from routine and banal content moderation discussions. Karpf shares this view.

Turley, on the other hand, argues that it was a pivotal moment in exposing a censorship apparatus that had grown out of hand.

“The statement that the Twitter files was a ‘nothingburger’ is really breathtaking,” he says. “They were censoring jokes. They were censoring people who had dissenting views of COVID. People were barred and throttled and blacklisted.”

“[Social media companies] were one monolithic whole, and they were all working with the U.S. government in a censorship system that a federal court called ‘perfectly Orwellian’.”

The Silencing of Jay Bhattacharya

The question of Stanford physician Jay Bhattacharya was raised. The Context: A now-infamous leaked email between Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci, then-directors of National Institute of Health (NIH) and National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), respectively, revealed that the top Biden Admin scientists privately ordered a “devastating published take down” of Bhattacharya’s criticism of national lockdown policy. It was additionally revealed that he was shadow-banned on Twitter.

Asked whether these actions taken against Bhattacharya — now Trump’s pick to lead the NIH — constituted a free speech infringement, Karpf replied that Bhattacharya’s current success proves that his “cancelling” was ineffective and thus inconsequential.

Turley took issue, saying Karpf and his ilk are essentially advocating for certain voices to be “disappeared”.

“I’m really troubled by this line of argument,” Turley rebutts. “It’s sort of like a doctor saying, ‘Yes I committed malpractice, but I didn’t kill the patient… The fact that people can survive is a rather chilling test when determining whether this was a good or bad thing.”

Grasping Governments

As Turley points out, for centuries governments have tried to limit the means through which their subjects can communicate via unauthorized channels.

“The internet itself is the most important invention since the printing press,” he argues. “When the printing press came out, the first reaction of governments was to limit the printing press. The internet scared the daylights out of governments. Also now with social media.”

Turley describes social media platforms as powerful tools that have scaled communication from orators standing atop boxes on urban street corners to everyone having global reach at all times. He views this as tremendously positive for speech while Karpf believes Musk abused this power to elect Trump and that Turley is only celebrating because “his side” won.

Karpf: “We are now at a version of Twitter where Elon Musk is spending basically every day with President-to-be Donald Trump, helping to dictate what government policy should be and which agencies should effectively go away. And he’s calling for people who work for the government to be fired.”

Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify:

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 11:45

The Tone Regarding Ukraine’s Future Has Shifted Significantly And Fast

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The Tone Regarding Ukraine’s Future Has Shifted Significantly And Fast

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

While Trump still has to be officially inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States of America, it almost seems he already entered the White House. This has already been demonstrated by Trumps attendance of the formal reopening of one of the pinnacles  of French gothic architecture. Indeed, the Notre Dame. In the limelight of this event, Trump, Macron and Zelensky had a meeting where they discussed the future of Ukraine. While no clear deal(s) seem to have been made yet, some would argue that it boiled down to going from a celebrative event organized in a holy place to a meeting that could lead to an unholy deal. While it is unsure yet what has been exactly discussed during the meeting between the three leaders, the tone regarding the future of Ukraine has definitely shifted significantly and fast!

Since February 2022, the Western mantra was that Ukraine would be supported for as long as it takes and that it was up to Ukraine to decide whether it wanted to engage in negotiations with Russia. A logical argument for those who also continued to emphasize Ukraine’s sovereignty and, directly related to it, the right of self-determination. Both are crucial pillars of the concept of the nation state that has it roots in the Treaty of Westphalia. If the West would be as serious about upholding the international rules-based order as has been voiced so often, then Ukraine should be considered the litmus test.  Not continuing or even stepping up support would in effect boil down to the alternative scenario in which the West would signal that they are unreliable guarantors of security alliances or partnerships (remember that Ukraine received those guarantees from the US and the UK in exchange for giving up its nuclear deterrent), that might makes right and that the West can be impressed and coerced by rattling the nuclear sabre, amongst others. The negative consequences should be clear to anybody with even a basic understanding of security studies or international affairs. 

History also provides us with clues of what might be the result of such an approach. During the 1930’s, Germany felt humiliated because of the treaty of Versailles and the Nazis came with a fascist concept of a civilization state claiming territory based on both historic and ethnic grounds. After it could seize some territories without putting up a real fight, it eventually decided to test France and the UK by invading Poland. Back in the late 1930’s, the United Kingdom was still recovering from the impact of the Great War and the gradual loss of control over its empire and its hegemonic status. From Chamberlains point of view, another large war was to be avoided at all cost. But as all of us know by now, this attitude soon proved to be even more costly in a such a way that nobody could ever have imagined. The parallels with the current situation should be clear and as such have often been drawn by international relations observers. 

Making a leap in time, Putin has been very clear all along about his views of the collapse of the Soviet Union which he calls the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. So to be clear, apparently from the Kremlin’s point of view it is not the more than 25 million Russians that died during World War II fighting Nazi Germany but the nonviolent collapse of a communist block that subjugated many previously independent and sovereign states, that was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the (last) century. 

Eager to reverse what the Kremlin seems to consider as an unpalatable humiliation, Russia embarked on several ‘adventures’ in Georgia, Chechnya, and now clearly Ukraine. This is relevant because this point of view makes it less likely that a deal between Russia, Ukraine and the West will turn out to be a stable and durable one. 

Taking all of the above into account it is the West that now seems to position itself as deal takers instead of deal makers when dealing with rule breakers. The majority of blame should go to Europe. While the war has already been dragging on for almost three years, many European member states continue to talk the talk instead of walk the walk. At the cost of precious lives and Europe’s own security. It is again a demonstration of Europe’s infamous lack of true leadership. We have plenty of Chamberlains and government officials dragging their feet but there is no Churchill in sight, except perhaps for some countries in the east that have been ignored in the past but have been warning the rest of us in Europe for many years. 

Now what does this all mean for the economy the curious and impatient reader might rightfully ask by now. While the government is primarily responsible for offering security to its inhabitants, It also means that businesses – and especially strategic sectors) should be mobilized to support efforts to enhance security in the broadest way. This means efforts to secure the physical (supply chains, industry and logistics) the digital (cyber security, AI and quantum computing) and increasingly space. It should be clear that part of such a mobilization includes much needed funding.

It is here that the financial sector comes into play. Until recently, many politicians and governments were highly critical on financial sector involvement related to the defense industry, making the banking sector wary of providing funding. The pendulum has swung. At least amongst politicians. In the Netherlands  former Minister of Defence Kaisa Ollongren called for pension funds and other players in the financial sector to increase investments in this specific sector. But this also applies on a European level.  And that means that financial markets will also have to play an important role. 

On a European level we have seen initiatives for EU funding for the defence industry financed via the issuance of Eurobonds. While common debt is still a thorny issue for the more frugal European member states, alternative ways to coordinate funding and effectively channel this to relevant industries or new industrial initiatives should be taken into consideration. The previous Recovery and Resilience Fund could (partly) serve as a blue print. This means that there could also be a role for the ECB. While the possibilities are plentifully it becomes increasingly urgent to act.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 11:25

Textron Halts ATV, UTV, Snowmobile Production Amid Imploding Consumer Demand

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Textron Halts ATV, UTV, Snowmobile Production Amid Imploding Consumer Demand

Defense contractor and industrial conglomerate Textron has halted production of its entire powersports product line within its Specialized Vehicles unit, which includes golf carts, utility vehicles, side-by-sides, ATVs, and snowmobiles. Textron cited “soft” consumer end-market powersports demand, a warning that overlaps with Polaris’ concerns about “challenging retail demand” for its ATVs, UTVs, and jet skis.

Textron’s powersports line includes ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles by Arctic Cat, golf carts by E-Z-GO, and utility offroad/ turf vehicles by Cushman and Jacobsen. 

“The consumer end market demand for powersports products continues to remain soft,” Textron wrote in a filing on Wednseday morning. 

Sliding consumer demand for ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles has forced Textron to pause powersports production “indefinitely in the first half of 2025.” 

As a result these developments, Textron noted that it expects restructuring costs between $190 million to $205 million, up from a previously announced range of $165 million to $170 million. 

“The increased charges of $25 million to $35 million are related to contract termination costs associated with the powersports production pause,” Textron said, adding, “These charges will be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, with additional cash outlays of $25 million to $35 million expected primarily in the first half of 2025.” 

In addition to Textron, Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen wrote in the fall that “consumer confidence and retail demand remain challenging” for its ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles. 

Demand for off-road vehicles has been crushed in a high-interest-rate environment that will continue into 2025. Plus, everyone who wanted a Polaris RZR or Arctic Cat ATV bought those vehicles with cheap money during the Covid bubble. 

Not all is lost for Textron. Goldman’s Noah Poponak recently told clients that the stock is a “Buy” on strong private jet demand and overall aerospace in a “strong demand cycle.” 

As for readers who have been actively searching for deals on ATVs, UTVs, and snowmobiles but did not pull the trigger during Covid because of high prices and shortages… Well, Arctic Cat might be offering some of the best deals.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/18/2024 – 11:05