Having accelerated MoM for the past four months, analysts expected today’s CPI print (for November) will rise once again to +0.3% MoM and they were dead on (the biggest MoM rise since April). The 0.3% MoM rise pushed headline CPI up 2.7% YoY – the highest since July…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI also rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)…

Source: Bloomberg

There has not been a single monthly decrease in core consumer prices since Biden too office.

There is a silver lining however, with so-called SuperCore CPI – Services Ex Shelter – rising just 0.19% MoM which leaves it +4.3% YoY (the lowest inflationary print since Dec 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

Services inflation continues to slow (but remains very hot) as goods deflation is rapidly reversing…

Source: Bloomberg

On a three-month annualized basis, it is only energy’s deflation that is holding CPI back from a much bigger surge with Food Costs up nearly 4%…

Source: Bloomberg

CPI Highlights:

• The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase.

• The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent.

• The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

CPI Core:

• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in each of the previous 3 months.

• Indexes that increased in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles, and recreation.

• The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.

Details:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, as it did in the preceding 3 months.

• The shelter index increased 0.3 percent in November. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent over the month, as did the index for rent, the smallest 1-month increases since April 2021 and July 2021, respectively.

  • The lodging away from home index rose 3.2 percent in November, after rising 0.4 percent in October

• The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month, the same as it did in October. The index for physicians’ services increased 0.3 percent in November, while the prescription drugs index fell 0.4 percent over the month.

  • The hospital services index was unchanged in November.

• The used cars and trucks index rose 2.0 percent in November, after rising 2.7 percent in the previous month.

• The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.6 percent over the month as did the index for new vehicles.

• Other indexes that increased in November include recreation, education, personal care, and apparel. In contrast, the index for communication fell 1.0 percent in November after falling 0.6 percent in October and September.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.

• The shelter index increased 4.7 percent over the last year, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2022.

• Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+12.7 percent), medical care (+3.1 percent), education (+4.2 percent), and recreation (+1.5 percent).

With money supply on the rise again, it should be no surprise that inflation is also rising phoenix-like from the ashes of a pre-election money tsunami…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Trump is about to inherit?

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all the rancor of the election campaigns about how voters are clueless as to just how good they’ve got it – which was echoed by Jared Bernstein this morning on CNBC – Americans (as a whole) have seen real incomes drop 3.3% in the four years since Biden was elected (and up just 2% since the start of COVID)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, this includes EVERY American and is adjusted by EVERY item in the BLS CPI basket… how about we adjust nominal incomes for what really matters – food and fuel costs?

Finally, strong employment and resurgent inflation ‘data’ is not the kind of ‘data’ that a ‘data dependent’ Fed needs to justify rate-cuts next week? Or is this resurgence transitory?

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in Texas on Dec. 10 rejected the auction sale of Alex Jones’s Infowars website to satirical publication The Onion, ruling that the process did not result in the best possible bids and citing concerns about transparency in the auction.

The Onion was named the winning bidder of Infowars’ assets during the Nov. 14 auction, part of a personal bankruptcy case Jones filed in late 2022 after he was ordered to pay nearly $1.5 billion in several defamation lawsuits.

The lawsuits were filed against Jones in Connecticut and Texas by relatives of victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, which Jones repeatedly claimed was staged as part of a government plot to increase gun control.

A total of 20 children and six educators were killed in the shooting. Jones has since acknowledged that the shooting took place and was “100 percent real.”

He said that he attempted to correct the claims that he initially made, but that “[the media] won’t let me take it back.”

Following a two-day hearing in Houston, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez said he would not approve the sale. He rejected claims by Jones that the bankruptcy auction was plagued with collusion and fraud but noted problems, not wrongdoing, with the auction process.

The Onion’s bid of $1.75 million with additional incentives for Infowars’ assets was backed by the families of the massacre victims. The bid won despite a higher $3.5 million cash offer from First United American Companies, which runs a website in Jones’ name and sells nutritional supplements.

The Connecticut-based Sandy Hook families, who are Jones’ largest creditors, augmented the Onion’s bid by agreeing to forgo $750,000 of the proceeds from the sale in favor of other creditors, providing the creditors with more money than First United’s higher cash offer.

That concession caused the bankruptcy trustee to value The Onion’s bid at $7 million overall.

The judge said Christopher Murray, a court-appointed trustee who oversaw the auction made “a good-faith error” when he asked for final offers for Infowars instead of encouraging more back-and-forth bidding between The Onion and First United American Companies.

“This should have been opened back up, and it should have been opened back up for everybody,” Lopez said.

“It’s clear the trustee left the potential for a lot of money on the table.”

Lopez also said the two offers for Infowars were just a fraction of the money that Jones has been ordered to pay in defamation lawsuits, and noted the extent of his debts. He left it up to the trustee to resolve the disputes between the creditors before making a new attempt to sell Infowars.

After winning the auction in November, The Onion said it planned to relaunch Infowars in January as a parody website alongside advertiser Everytown for Gun Safety, the largest gun violence prevention organization in the country.

In a complaint filed in November, Jones urged the federal bankruptcy court in Texas to disqualify The Onion’s bid and instead recognize First United American Companies as the rightful winner of the auction.

Lopez’s ruling puts The Onion’s plan to take possession of the Infowars website and its associated assets on hold.

In a Dec. 11 social media statement, Ben Collins, CEO of The Onion’s parent company, Global Tetrahedron, said the publication is “deeply disappointed” but will “continue to seek a resolution that helps the Sandy Hook families receive a positive outcome for the horror they endured.”

Collins said the company will also continue to “seek a path” towards purchasing Infowars in the coming weeks.

“It is part of our larger mission to make a better, funnier internet, regardless of the outcome of this case,” Collins said.

Christopher Mattei, a lawyer for the Sandy Hook families who sued Jones in Connecticut, also expressed disappointment over the judge’s ruling.

Neil Heslin, father of Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting victim Jesse Lewis, holds a picture of him with Jesse during a hearing in Washington in a file image. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“These families, who have already persevered through countless delays and roadblocks, remain resilient and determined as ever to hold Alex Jones and his corrupt businesses accountable for the harm he has caused,” Mattei said in a statement.

“This decision doesn’t change the fact that, soon, Alex Jones will begin to pay his debt to these families and he will continue doing so for as long as it takes.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Jones for comment.

US equity futures are flat ahead of the CPI report that will determine if the Fed cuts rates next week. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.1%, with the Mag 7 mostly higher led by NVDA, GOOG and TSLA. Bond yields and the dollar are also higher after a Reuters report that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. In commodities oil is up +1.0%, and gold is trading just shy of $2700. The main macro focus will be CPI at 8.30am ET (see our preview here). We will also have 10y auction at 1pm ET and ADBE earnings after the close.

Among individual stock movers, Walgreens Boots Alliance slipped 3.5% in US premarket trading, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% surge, as analysts questioned the probability of Sycamore Partners acquiring the pharmacy chain. Videogame retailer GameStop was flat after posting a surprise profit. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Acelyrin (SLRN) tumbles 16% after the biotech company said its Phase 2b/3 trial of izokibep to treat a form of eye inflammation failed to meet targets.
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) drops 14% after the entertainment and dining chain reported weaker-than-expected 3Q results and said CEO Chris Morris is resigning.
• General Motors (GM) gains 1% after the automaker said it will stop funding the robotaxi development of its Cruise unit and combine both Cruise and GM technical teams into a single effort for autonomous driving.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) declines 7% after the air-taxi startup entered into an equity distribution agreement.
• Macy’s (M) falls 8% after trimming its profit outlook after concluding its investigation into an employee plot to hide millions of dollars in expenses.
• Patterson Cos. (PDCO) soars 33% as Patient Square Capital agreed to buy the dental and animal health firm for $31.35 a share in cash.
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) climbs 21% after the online personal-styling service raised its year revenue outlook.

One day after we reminded readers that a yuan devaluation is looming…

One day later:

Yuan Slides on Report China Considering Weaker Currency in 2025: BBG https://t.co/bILDeGQxhJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 11, 2024

… Reuters reported that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency, sending the dollar higher.  The report saying Beijing could let the yuan depreciate, jolted markets that were in a lull ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data print and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It sent the the offshore yuan as much as 0.5% lower, while Bloomberg’s dollar index gained 0.3% to touch a two-week high. The move spilled over globally, triggering drops in China proxies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as in key emerging-market currencies like the South African rand.

“Last time we had the trade war, we saw a big weakening in the yuan,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. “That made sense at the time, it would make sense again if Trump comes up with tariffs again.”

Hetal Mehta, head of economic research at St James Place Management, said the dollar’s strength – it has risen 5% already this quarter – is unsurprising, given the “anticipation of tariffs, or just the pricing out of some of the rate cuts that people thought the Fed would implement.”

Meanwhile, while swap markets almost fully expect a quarter-point US rate reduction next week, they have trimmed bets on easing by the Fed over this cycle. Mehta also said that after a series of record highs on the S&P 500, traders will likely wait for details of Trump’s agenda before embarking on more significant moves. “Some of the recent strength is related to forthcoming tax cuts and what that would mean for corporate profits, so markets now want to wait and see that delivered,” she said.

European stocks are little changed as retail shares provide a drag after Inditex reported slower sales growth at the outset of the crucial holiday shopping season. US equity futures edge higher. Zalando SE slumped after the German retailer agreed to buy rival About You Holding SE, offering a premium of about 67% to Tuesday’s closing price. Inditex SA, the owner of the Zara fashion brand, fell on slower sales growth. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Publicis and RTL shares rise as JPMorgan upgrades both to overweight. Broker suggests a “pick and mix” approach to the European media sector to navigate an uneven macro picture heading into 2025
• Saipem gains as much as 4.5% after JPMorgan names the European oil services company its pick for 2025
• Man Group gains as much as 4.5% as Canaccord double-upgrades the hedge fund firm to buy from sell, removing the only negative analyst view, with retreat since the stock’s year-to-date high in April seen as an opportunity
• Inditex shares dropped as much as 7.7% in Madrid trading after Zara owner reported nine-month Ebit that missed estimates, with analysts noting trading update for the 4Q was also lighter than expected
• Siemens Energy shares drop as much as 8.7%, the biggest intraday fall since August, after competitor GE Vernova hosted an investor day that Morgan Stanley said created a negative read-across
• TUI shares drop as much as 8.5%, the biggest intraday decline since Aug. 5, after the travel company reported full-year results. Analysts flagged the slowdown in winter bookings from the pre-close update in September
• Zalando shares fall as much as 9.2% in early trading, the steepest drop since June, as analysts flagged the About You takeover deal will weigh on the balance sheet and reduce the chances of cash being returned to shareholders
• Carl Zeiss Meditec shares fall as much as 14%, after the German health-care supplier reported lower-than-expected earnings for the year and provided FY25 guidance which suggests downgrades to consensus estimates, according to analysts
• CVC Capital shares drop as much as 3.8% after shareholders in the investment management firm sold shares at a discount to yesterday’s closing price. The stock slipped to as low as €21.32 this morning, below the €21.54 price the shares were offloaded at
• Alzchem shares fall as much as 9.4% to €53 after LIVIA Corporate Development SE and HDI Vier CE informed the German specialty chemicals firm that they intend to sell a total of as many as 250,000 shares in a private placement

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, weighed by a slump in Hong Kong and Chinese shares as traders tempered expectations for further stimulus from a key policy meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.3%, with TSMC, Meituan and Tencent among the biggest drags on the gauge. The regional benchmark has moved in a tight range of less than 0.5% for the past five sessions. Shares in Hong Kong and mainland China ended the day lower after fluctuations. The moves suggest investors are bracing for potential disappointment from the Central Economic Work Conference, expected this week, despite vows of support made by the Politburo earlier. A major bright spot in the region was South Korea, where stocks extended gains to a second day following a selloff sparked by political turmoil. The impeachment case against President Yoon Suk Yeol could have “a little bit more serious impact to the overall economy” than previous impeachments given current macro weakness, said Ethan Seo, head of global markets at BNP Paribas in Seoul. Still, the South Korean stock market should stabilize if lawmakers pass the impeachment bill this weekend, while a delay would mean the turmoil “even getting worse.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, gaining for a fourth session to its highest level in two weeks ahead of US inflation data, boosted by weakness in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The USD/JPY pair climbs 0.5% to 152.65, pushing the yen to a two-week low, after Bloomberg reported BOJ officials see little cost to waiting before raising interest rates. The report also suggested some officials are not against a rate hike at the December meeting if it is proposed. The yuan falls 0.4% on a report that Beijing is considering allowing the currency to weaken next year in response to the threat of a trade war with the US. The USD/CNH gains 0.2% to 7.2733 and Aussie, kiwi dollars follow yuan lower. USD/JPY rallies 0.5% to 152.79 after whipsawing on BOJ report. The loonie was little changed ahead of Bank of Canada decision, USD/CAD steady at 1.4182. Swaps markets pricing some 44bp — or around 80% of a half-point cut — from BOC. The EUR/USD falls 0.2% to 1.0508; GBP/USD down 0.2% to 1.2741

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, lagging slightly vs core European rates, which are mostly little changed. WTI crude oil futures are up more than 1%, supporting higher Treasury yields ahead of the $39 billion 10-year reopening during US afternoon. US yields are higher by 1bp to 2bp across maturities with curve slightly flatter. 10-year around 4.24% is higher by ~1.5bp, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.7bp and 0.5bp. The treasury auction cycle continues with 10-year reopening, second of this week’s three coupon sales; Tuesday’s 3-year note tailed slightly, by 0.1bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures rose after a Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, a move that could tighten the market. WTI oil is up 1% to $69.30 a barrel. Spot gold adds $5. Bitcoin climbs back above $98,000.

The US economic data calendar includes November CPI (8:30am) and Federal budget balance (2pm). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of their Dec. 18 Fed policy announcement

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,051.75
  Brent Futures up 1.0% to $72.91/bbl
  Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,692.86
  US Dollar Index up 0.23% to 106.65

Top Overnight News

• China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 as they brace for higher U.S. trade tariffs as Donald Trump returns to the White House. The contemplated move reflects China’s recognition that it needs bigger economic stimulus to combat Trump’s threats of punitive trade measures. RTRS
• Bank of Japan officials see only a small cost to waiting before raising interest rates while still being open to a hike next week depending on data and market developments. Even if the BOJ decides to wait until January, authorities see it as not entailing a huge cost because signs point to little risk that inflation might overshoot. BBG
• US President-elect Trump’s Treasury pick Bessent said Fed Chair Powell can serve the remainder of his term, via CNBC. Trump said he picked FTC Commissioner Andrew Ferguson to chair the FTC. Trump said he picked Ron Johnson to serve as the United States Ambassador to Mexico.
• US President Biden is to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs, in an effort to protect US manufacturing, according to the FT.
• Biden will dramatically increase the US tariffs on cleantech imports from China (Chinese polysilicon and solar wafers will see their tariff double to 50%). FT
• Japan’s PPI for Nov overshoots the Street, coming in at +3.7% (vs. the consensus of +3.4% and up from +3.6% in Oct), providing fresh momentum for the BOJ to hike rates ahead of its meeting next week. BBG
• Biden considering a fresh round of sanctions and restrictions on Russia’s oil industry in an effort to weaken Putin’s war on Ukraine ahead of Trump taking power. BBG
• South Korea’s opposition Democratic Party is preparing to file another impeachment motion that has a better chance of passing. President Yoon Suk Yeol will probably fight any impeachment bid and appears to have rejected stepping down. BBG
• Trump selected Andrew Ferguson to replace Lina Khan as head of the FTC. While a second Trump administration may be friendlier to mergers and acquisitions, it is likely to keep up the aggressive pursuit of antitrust cases targeting tech giants. BBG
• CPI Preview: We expect a 0.28% increase in November core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.27% (vs. 3.3% consensus). We expect a 0.28% increase in November headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), reflecting 0.25% higher food prices and 0.3% higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.20% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.20% increase in core PCE in November. GIR
• New hedge fund launches are on track to log one of its toughest years in over 20 years. A total of 123 firms opened up shop this year through September — poised for the smallest annual tally of new entrants since at least 2000. BBG

APAC stocks traded mixed following a soft US handover as participants brace for the US CPI data, although Chinese markets continued to benefit from the easing in China’s overall monetary policy stance. ASX 200 was on a softer footing with almost all of its sectors in the red, whilst IT lagged following a similar sectoral performance stateside. Nikkei 225 was subdued but within narrow parameters whilst Japanese PPI topped expectations, with eyes on next week’s BoJ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both initially traded firmer in a continuation of the optimism from Politburo on Monday revising its overall monetary policy stance. Upside for the indices however were modest and capped ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, whilst the China A50 faded earlier gains and dipped into the red and was later joined by the Hang Seng.

Top Asian News

• China’s watchdog orders PDD (PDD) to fix controversial refunds policy, according to Bloomberg
• RBA’s Hauser says Australian inflation could move in either direction. The data needs to come in line with forecasts for the central bank to change policySays there is no particular trigger figure for inflation for the RBA to ease policy.
• Japan auto worker’s union calls for monthly pay increase of more than JPY 12,000 in annual labour talks next year.
• China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms, via Reuters citing sources.
• South Korea Finance Ministry said will make ample responses to curb any excessive volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
• South Korea’s economy and finance minister spoke to US Treasury Secretary Yellen, according to Reuters.
• South Korean police raid presidential office over martial law, according to Yonhap.
• Japan reportedly plans a 4% corporate tax surtax from 2026 to fund defence, according to Kyodo.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore survey: Singapore 2024 GDP growth at 3.6% (vs prev. 2.6%); 2024 core inflation seen at 2.9% (vs prev. 3.0%).
• ADB trimmed developing Asia 2024 growth forecast to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%), trimmed 2025 to 4.8% (prev. 4.9%); says growth outlook faces downside risks from the magnitude and speed of expected US policy shifts under Trump.

European bourses opened almost entirely in the red, but now display more of a mixed picture as sentiment gradually improves in the complex. Price action has been modest in nature, with traders mindful of the looming US CPI. European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but sentiment has improved a touch as the morning progressed to display a mixed picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile alongside Media. Retail is by far and away the clear underperformer in Europe, hit by a double whammy of losses from Inditex and Zalando. US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming slightly, attempting to pare back some of the losses seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• Scholz to Request Confidence Vote Triggering Snap Election
• Mizuho Boosts European Bond Trading Team With New Hires
• Danske Bank Markets Hires Head of Fixed Income from SEB
• Russia’s Africa Strategy at Risk After Syria Regime Collapse
• Publicis Gains; JPMorgan Says ‘Pick and Mix’ in Europe Media
• HSBC’s CEO Eyes $3 Billion in Potential Savings From Overhaul

FX

• The USD was lent a helping hand in early trade following a Reuters sources report that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. This sent DXY to a new high for the week at 106.68, stopping shy of last week’s MTD high at 106.73 (which has since been breached in recent trade). Today’s sees the release of November CPI data which is expected to see a +0.3% M/M outturn for core CPI.
• EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.05 following a pick-up in the USD after reports of China looking to devalue the yuan next year. EUR/USD went as low as 1.0489 but stopped shy of the December low at 1.0460.
• JPY was firmer vs. the USD during APAC hours following two consecutive sessions of losses as markets digested above forecast Japanese PPI data; the Yuan reporting also supported. Thereafter, JPY gained further ground vs. the USD after a Bloomberg sources piece noted that the BoJ sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike. This move was then subsequently reversed after markets digested another aspect of the report which noted that the BoJ sees less risk of a softer JPY boosting inflation (i.e less pressure to intervene). USD/JPY is back above its 200DMA at 152.00 with a session peak at 152.65.
• GBP is softer vs. the USD with UK catalysts on the light side. Friday’s monthly GDP print unlikely to be a gamechanger for the BoE. Cable went as high as 1.2781 overnight before returning to within yesterday’s 1.2724-1.2778 range.
• CNH was knocked lower in early European trade after source reporting via Reuters noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms.
• CAD is steady vs. the USD ahead of today’s BoC rate decision. The BoC is widely expected to cut rates with the consensus looking for another 50bps reduction, but with a risk of a smaller 25bp move.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1843 vs exp. 7. 2379 (prev. 7.1876)
• RBI likely selling USD to limit INR fall, according to Reuters citing traders.
• BoJ reportedly sees little cost in waiting for the next rate hike, according to Bloomberg; cites current prices. Next rate increase is seen as a “matter of time”. View is that there is less risk of a soft JPY boosting inflation.

Fixed Income

• USTs are back in negative territory after support from a Reuters report noting that China could be willing to let the Yuan devalue next year, proved to be short-lived. Mar’25 contract is currently tucked within yesterday’s 110.26-111.09 range, ahead of US CPI.
• Today is seeing a minor reversal of the recent outperformance of French paper over its German counterpart. European paper was dealt some minor support in early trade following the aforementioned Reuters source report on China. Bunds are back above 136 and towards the top end of yesterday’s 135.75-136.26 trading range.
• Gilts are reversing some of yesterday’s selling which didn’t appear to be driven by an obvious catalyst at the time. Mar’25 Gilt is currently towards the bottom end of yesterday’s 95.13-73 trading range. Modest pressure was seen in Gilt prices following the 2034 auction, given the relatively wider tail.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 2.87x (prev. 2.81x), avg yield 4.332% (prev. 4.475%) & tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.8bps).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are on a firmer footing, and has pared initial pressure which was sparked by Reuters reporting, which noted that China’s top policymakers are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as Trump tariff looms. Overnight trade saw oil prices propped up as traders digested reports that the US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office.
• Spot gold spent most of the European morning in modest negative territory, but has since climbed into the green. XAU has traded in a tight range of USD 2675.89-2704.35/oz range.
• Base metals traded on a firmer footing throughout overnight trade, with gains driven by the ongoing optimism surrounding China’s easing of overall monetary policy stance. Into the European morning, prices began to dive lower on the aforementioned Yuan-related reports.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.499mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate +2.452mln (exp. +1.4mln), Gasoline +2.852mln (exp. +1.7mln), Cushing -1.517mln (prev. +0.1mln).
• El Paso Natural Gas Co. declares initial force majeure – Line 1200, according to Reuters.
• Goldman Sachs pushes back on the argument that gold cannot rally to USD 3,000/oz by end-2025 “in a world where the dollar stays stronger for longer.” “Fewer Fed cuts are a key downside risk to our USD 3,000 end-2025 gold price forecast (not a stronger dollar).”.
• UBS forecasts Brent rising to USD 80/bbl and WTI rising to USD 75/bbl in 2025. UBS says for 2025, it holds a constructive natgas price outlook (see NatGas at USD 3.50/mmbtu in June 2025, rising to USD 3.60/mmbtu by September).
• Ukraine’s military says it struck an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region; military says the attack caused a ‘massive fire’. Attack on an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region did not affect oil transit to Europe via Ukraine, according to Reuters citing a industry source. Kazakhstan says Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia is not damaged by Ukrainian overnight strikes.

Geopolitics: Middle-East

• Sky News Arabia reports that it is monitoring the advance of Israeli tanks in the Golan.
• Two US Navy destroyers successfully defeated Houthi-launched weapons while transiting the Gulf of Aden, according to the US military.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US is weighing harsher oil sanctions against Russia weeks before Trump returns to office, according to Bloomberg.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia will “definitely be prepared to consider” another prisoner swap with the US, according to NBC.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications 5.4%, prior 2.8%
• 08:30: Nov. CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • Nov. CPI YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
  • Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
  • Nov. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.4%
  • Nov. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.4%, revised 1.1%
• 14:00: Nov. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$356b, prior -$314b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today’s EMR contains the largest number I think I’ve ever used in this document. See if you can spot it and try to work out how many zeros in this number without looking it up. That’s in a story covering AI which was a potential curveball in both directions in our “Curveballs for 2025” pack earlier this week (link here). Another was that inflation refuses to behave relative to expectations, particularly in the US. Today we’ll see the next installment in this saga with US CPI ahead of an interesting FOMC next week.

If inflation does make a comeback in 2025 and 2026 it may be centred around tax cuts and tariffs so today’s number is well before any of that might happen, but US inflation has been on the stubborn side in recent months in what has been the better half of the year for seasonals.

In terms of what to expect, the general consensus is it’s going to be a stronger one again, and our US economists are looking for a +0.30% monthly print on the headline measure. If realised, that would actually be the highest number in 7 months, and would lift the year-on-year CPI rate up to +2.8%. Moreover, they expect core CPI to come in at a monthly +0.27%, which would be the fourth consecutive month with a core CPI print rounding to +0.3%. So that’s a bit too fast for the Fed to be completely comfortable, although our economists think that the rise in the unemployment rate in last week’s jobs report should still allow them to proceed with a 25bp cut next week. See their full preview here, along with how to sign up for their subsequent webinar.

Markets have lost some ground over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.30%) extending its losses at the start of the week as we await the CPI report. Futures are pricing in a 86% probability that the Fed will cut rates this week but at the same point before the November meeting, a cut was priced as a 95% chance, so there’s more doubt than there was last time, and a strong print today would definitely raise the uncertainty into year-end. And given President-elect Trump’s pledge to introduce more aggressive tariffs, there’s also plenty of potential inflationary pressures still in the pipeline.

Ahead of the CPI, Treasury yields ticked up, with the 2yr yield (+1.9bps) up to 4.15%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.5bps) rose to 4.23%. That got support from the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which surged to 101.7 in November (vs. 95.3 expected). Indeed, it was the biggest monthly jump in the index since it began as a monthly series in 1986, and it takes it up to its highest level since June 2021. So it speaks to a big shift in sentiment that we also saw in the NY Fed’s survey yesterday, where the share expecting their household financial situation to improve reached its highest since February 2020. That said, it remains to be seen to what extent this post-election jump in the surveys, many of which have been historically subdued over the past couple of years, will translate into hard activity gains.

Indeed, that positive data didn’t help equities much, with the S&P 500 (-0.30%) retreating for a second session in a row for the first time in three weeks. That was despite a strong gain for the Magnificent 7 (+0.99%), which hit an all-time high that took its YTD gain up to +68.80%. Those gains were led by Alphabet (+5.59%) after Google unveiled its new quantum computing chip, Willow, which is seen as delivering important progress towards building quantum computers with practical applications. According to the company, the chip “performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years” and can reduce errors while scaling up the number of qubits, which is a long-standing challenge in the field. I understand about half of what I’ve just typed I think.

Several more trade-exposed areas didn’t do so well however, with some putting it down to Trump’s description of Canadian PM Trudeau as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.” So investors interpreted that by suggesting Trump was less likely to back down on his tariff threats. And in light of that, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-2.47%) and the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (-4.34%) both had their worst daily performances in nearly a month, with the latter correcting from the +8.54% surge the day before. Equity losses were also seen in Europe, with the Stoxx 600 down -0.52%.

Over in Europe, attention is now turning to the ECB’s policy decision tomorrow, where they’re widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut. And ahead of that, bond yields saw modest moves across the Euro Area, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) essentially unchanged, while OAT (+0.8bps) and BTP (+1.0bps) yields edged slightly higher. The outlier was 10yr gilt yields (+5.3bps), which pushed the UK-German 10yr spread up to 220bps, which is the widest it’s been since September 2022 when Liz Truss was still PM. Bear in mind that the closing peak in the spread was 228bps under Liz Truss, and that hasn’t been exceeded in Bloomberg’s data series back to 1992. So we’re pretty close to a multi-decade record, and the widening interest differential also meant that sterling closed at its strongest level against the Euro since June 2016, the month of the Brexit referendum.

In European political news, French President Macron said that he plans to appoint a new prime minister in the next 48 hours in a meeting with French political leaders. That follows last week’s collapse of the government led by PM Barnier. According to reporting by Bloomberg and others, Macron is seeking to build a coalition of moderates that could last through to the end of his Presidential term in 2027.

Asian equity markets are struggling for direction this morning. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (-0.14%) is losing ground with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.47%), the CSI (-0.29%) and the Hang Seng (-0.29%) are also lower as a two-day annual economic meeting begins in Beijing today. The meeting comes after China’s Politburo on Monday offered its most dovish signals yet on plans to unlock more stimulus and support growth. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.73%) continues to gain ground for the second consecutive session following last week’s short lived martial law event. US futures are fairly flat.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation rose +3.7% y/y in November (v/s +3.4% expected), accelerating at the fastest pace in 16 months and compared to an upwardly revised gain of +3.6%. Following the stronger data release, the Japanese yen (+0.27%) is gaining ground, trading at 151.57 against the dollar amid growing inflationary pressure in the economy – thus keeping the door open for a possible interest rate hike by the BOJ next week.

There wasn’t too much other data yesterday, although US unit labour cost growth was revised down in Q3. So the previous reading had suggested unit labour costs were up by an annualised +1.9% rate, but the latest print lowered that to +0.8%. So that pointed to weaker inflationary pressures than previously thought. Otherwise in Italy, industrial production was flat in October, in line with expectations.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI report for November. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest policy decision.

U.S. gross debt increased from $34.4 trillion at the end of 2023 to $36.1 trillion as of December 2024, with some experts calling it unsustainable.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti brings a breakdown of U.S. debt composition, categorized by domestic and foreign investors as well as intragovernmental holdings.

The data is sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, as of year-end for 2023.

Key Data on U.S. Debt

The U.S. national debt increases when the federal government spends more than it collects through taxes and other revenue streams.

When government spending exceeds tax revenue, a budget deficit occurs. To cover the shortfall, the U.S. Treasury issues Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. The national debt is the cumulative total of the federal government’s budget deficits, adjusted for any surpluses.

Of the $34.4 trillion in gross debt in 2023, $27.3 trillion (79%) was public debt borrowed from domestic and foreign investors, while $7.0 trillion (21%) was intragovernmental debt, reflecting internal government transactions.

The Federal Reserve System was the largest domestic holder of U.S. public debt, with holdings of $5.24 trillion.

Debt held by the public represents the amount borrowed by the U.S. Treasury from external lenders via financial markets to fund government operations. It is considered a critical measure of debt because it directly impacts the government’s ability to manage economic crises and can influence economic stability.

As of December 2023, debt held by the public equaled 97% of the U.S. GDP.

Debt Under Trump

With the upcoming administration change in January, President-elect Donald Trump has appointed billionaire Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The department aims to identify and eliminate wasteful spending, with Musk claiming it could cut $2 trillion in government “waste,” potentially reducing the national debt or curbing expenditures.

If you enjoyed this post, make sure to check this graphic on which foreign countries own the most U.S. debt.

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The world’s consumption and exports of thermal coal are expected to rise this year from 2023 to hit fresh record-highs, according to export and power generation data cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Coal-fired electricity generation has increased so far this year by 2% compared to 2023, to hit new highs as power demand in emerging markets grows. Coal power emissions are also set to rise to a record high in 2024, according to data from energy think tank Ember quoted by Maguire.

Moreover, global exports of thermal coal – the type used in coal power plants – have also climbed this year, due to rising demand in India and China in particular.

The world’s thermal coal exports rose by 9 million metric tons between January and November 2024 compared to the same period of last year, per vessel-tracking data by commodity analysts at Kpler.

Indonesia, the largest coal exporter in the world, is set to ship more than 500 million tons of coal this year, for the first time ever, according to Kpler’s estimates cited by Reuters’s Maguire.

Last year, coal demand grew by 2.6% to hit an all-time high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a July overview of the coal markets. Back then, the agency expected coal demand for 2024 to remain broadly flat compared to 2023.

However, demand in China and India has continued to grow.

Although the share of coal in China’s electricity generation has been declining in recent years with the renewables boom, Chinese coal power generation and demand remains strong.

Coal still accounts for about 60% of China’s power generation, despite a surge in hydropower earlier this year after abundant rainfall, which reduced the share of coal in the country’s energy mix during the summer.

But hydropower saw a sharp decline in September, which boosted the use of thermal coal for power generation amid surging power demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

Deutsche Bank released a new note on coming 2025 themes, trends and top picks in the automotive industry this week. Among the standouts from the note were:

• Volkswagen (Europe): Volkswagen is addressing cost inefficiencies with bold restructuring efforts, such as plant closures and a canceled labor agreement in Germany. Its new product launches, particularly in premium brands Audi and Porsche, position it to have the youngest portfolio by year-end 2025, enhancing competitiveness.

• BMW (Europe): BMW leads German automakers in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption, helping it comply with EU CO2 regulations. Additionally, its cash return potential, with €2 billion allocated for share buybacks and plans for more, provides shareholder value.

• Michelin (Europe): Despite recent challenges, Michelin is expected to outperform in 2025 due to a recovery in volume growth, strong cash generation, and lower risk exposure compared to other European automotive companies.

• Pirelli (Europe): Pirelli continues to deliver earnings and margin growth, despite risks such as tariffs and potential Chinese stakeholder exits. Its strategic focus on high-value-added (HVA) volumes safeguards financial performance.

• Tesla (United States): Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving technology and cost-efficient BEV production. Its advancements in robotaxi technology and strong compute resources give it a competitive edge that is hard to replicate.

• BYD (China, 1H 2025): BYD excels in cost leadership and exposure to the fast-growing low-price vehicle segment in China. It is well-positioned to benefit from government incentives and increased domestic and export demand.

In the note, the bank concludes that the automotive sector is set for another challenging year in 2025, with continued volatility, pricing pressures, and regional disparities in demand. While the industry grapples with muted growth in Europe and North America, there are pockets of opportunity driven by electrification, restructuring efforts, and innovative advancements in autonomous driving technology.

In Europe, companies like Volkswagen and BMW are well-positioned to weather the storm. Volkswagen is aggressively restructuring to address high labor costs, a move that includes plant closures in Germany, while also leading in portfolio renewal with new launches across its mass-market and premium segments. BMW, benefiting from its robust Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) portfolio, is poised to meet stringent EU CO2 regulations and avoid fines. Pricing in the region is expected to decline slightly but remain relatively stable as OEMs resist aggressive incentives.

The U.S. automotive landscape faces uncertainties tied to the new administration’s policies on emissions and EV incentives. Tesla continues to dominate the autonomous driving space, leveraging its scale and technological edge to outpace competitors. Pricing in the U.S. is also under pressure, with GM maintaining disciplined inventory management to mitigate declines, while other OEMs like Ford face challenges in balancing inventory and demand. Companies such as Autoliv and Dana are positioned to capitalize on opportunities in safety systems and cost-efficient restructuring, respectively.

China presents a contrasting narrative, with double-digit growth expected in passenger vehicle volumes driven by government incentives and local OEMs like BYD and Geely gaining market share. Electrification in China remains a strong growth driver, particularly in the BEV segment, though volumes are still below initial forecasts due to policy adjustments. Exports from Chinese automakers are also expected to grow by 12% in 2025, supported by new overseas plants, expanded product portfolios, and entry into new markets.

Across the industry, electrification continues to be a pivotal theme. Europe leads in BEV adoption, fueled by tightening CO2 regulations, while China’s growth is underpinned by strong government support. In the U.S., electrification momentum is closely tied to federal policies, with potential shifts in EV incentives under the new administration. However, high electrification costs and the risk of regulatory fines in Europe remain challenges for profitability.

Pricing pressures are expected to persist across all regions. In the U.S., high inventory levels and muted demand are driving slight declines in new car pricing, while in Europe, pricing is softening as demand stabilizes. The used car market, which saw a surge during the pandemic, offers limited support as prices normalize. In China, competitive dynamics continue to exert downward pressure on prices, especially in the low-cost vehicle segment.

Restructuring emerges as a critical theme, particularly in Europe. OEMs are focusing on cost-cutting measures to address declining demand and high operational costs. Volkswagen’s aggressive restructuring plan is an example of the industry’s efforts to realign capacities and improve competitiveness. Such measures are expected to play a significant role in reshaping the automotive landscape in 2025.

Amid these challenges, certain companies stand out. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving and robotaxi advancements, setting a high bar for competitors. Volkswagen and BMW are poised for growth through portfolio renewal and emissions compliance, while BYD and Geely dominate the low-cost vehicle segment in China. Michelin and Pirelli remain strong players in the tire market, balancing challenges with consistent cash flow and innovative strategies.

The note concludes that while 2025 promises to be another volatile year, selective investments in OEMs with strong balance sheets, innovative electrification strategies, and effective restructuring plans offer significant upside potential. Regional dynamics, policy shifts, and advancements in technology will play pivotal roles in shaping the future of the automotive industry.

The full note can be found by premium subscribers in the in the usual place. 

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• A new report estimates the EU’s green transition could cost €1.3 trillion annually until 2030 and €1.54 trillion annually until 2050.

• The high cost of the transition may require higher taxes, subsidies, and potentially national green investment strategies.

• Concerns exist about public support for the transition due to rising living costs and potential harm to businesses’ competitiveness.

Climate finance is a white-hot topic right now. The COP2 delegates failed to agree on a generous enough deal for the transition in developing countries; in the U.S., project Veritas revealed that the EPA was funneling billions into climate activist organizations ahead of Trump’s presidency to ensure continued pressure on the government; and in the EU, a think tank put a price tag on the transition. The EU cannot afford it.

Bruegel, the Brussels-based energy outlet, published a policy brief this week focusing on what the EU needs to get to its stated goals of net zero and how much it would cost. It appears that, for these goals to be hit, the bloc would need to spend 1.3 trillion euros, or about $1.4 trillion, every year until 2030. After that, the price for the transition jumps to 1.54 trillion annually and stays this much until 2050.

The impressive amount of money that needs to be spent on the transition is divided into three categories by Bruegel: energy supply, energy demand, and transport. It may also be an underestimation by the EU itself—because it does not include all the costs associated with the transition, omitting, for instance, financing costs that could be quite significant in their own right. As Bruegel points out, “the cost of financing investment will be significant for cash-constrained agents, and public finances will need to step in with de-risking instruments to facilitate private investment.”

What this means is that the European Union will need to step up subsidies in all of its transition directions in order to motivate private investors to join it in funding the transition. That could be a tough job given the current context in transition technologies, which is one with subdued demand despite the strong government support in the form of subsidies.

Yet the European Union—as represented by its executive arm, the Commission—also omits other costs from its financial plans for the transition. It does not include the manufacturing costs associated with that transition into the budget, and these could be steep as well. As Bruegel notes, the buildout of local manufacturing capacity in line with a policy that requires 40% of European transition tech to be made in the bloc would require additional investments of 100 billion euros annually between this year and 2030.

It sounds like the tab just keeps getting items added to it, but who is going to pick it up and how they are going to afford it is becoming increasingly unclear. Of course, on the face of it, the payers are perfectly clear: governments and private investors. It is below this face that things get interesting—and challenging.

The government receives money from the taxpayers. So, the government part of the transition tab will be, in effect, picked up by people who pay taxes—and who vote. But with the transition about to get even more expensive than it already is, European governments would need to find more money than previously expected in order to do their bit for the common green good, and that would have to mean higher taxes—while trying to incentivize taxpayers to adopt greener and more expensive lifestyles.

Per Bruegel, “There will be a great need from 2025-2030 to deal with the complex distributional implications of buildings and transport decarbonisation, from which emissions reductions have so far been relatively small. Avoiding political backlash may involve offering financial incentives to households in return for adopting costlier green technologies.”

This is quite a conundrum because it effectively comes down to European governments taking money from people with the one hand and giving them some back with the other, all for the purpose of reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide by 55% from 1990s levels by 2030 and then achieving net-zero status by 2050. Judging by the latest political events in Europe, notably Germany, Romania, and now France, it is not going well.

It might get even worse in the near future because Bruegel has suggestions about how to ensure the money for the transition is there: by effectively binding all national policies with the European Green Deal. The EU is currently seeking to achieve its transition goals via a scheme featuring national energy and climate plans, or NECPs. Per Bruegel, in order to be effective, NECPs “must be turned into real national green-investment strategies, providing a point of reference for investors, stakeholders and citizens in making investment decisions.”

“Governments should be obliged to set out in their NECPs a detailed, bottom-up analysis of their green investment needs, and an implementation roadmap with clear milestones or key performance indicators (KPIs),” the think tank also wrote, basically suggesting that transition policies should be turned into the focus and basis of all national policies.

While that might be possible, if difficult, to do with all pro-transition governments across the EU, the implementation remains dependent on over a trillion euros in investments every single year between now and 2030—and Europeans are already angry enough with their rising cost of living. Bruegel calls the criticism of EU climate policies populism and accuses critics of making false statements about the damage that the transition would do to the EU’s competitiveness. Yet evidence points in the opposite direction: the transition is making life in the EU a lot more expensive, destroying European businesses’ competitiveness and even threatening their survival. The impossibility of finding enough money to fund the transition could be a blessing in disguise.

The world continues to “warm” back up to nuclear, with the latest example coming out of Japan, where its Shimane nuclear power station in western Japan has been restarted for the first time since the 2011 Fukushima meltdown.

Japan’s long-delayed restart of the 820 MW No. 2 reactor at the Shimane plant, shut down since January 2012, raises the number of operational reactors to 14, with a total capacity of 13,253 MW, according to Reuters.

Tohoku Electric Power also recently resumed operations of its 825 MW No. 2 reactor at the Onagawa plant, reducing Japan’s reliance on liquefied natural gas and thermal coal.

Reuters writes that the expanded use of nuclear energy is expected to support Japan’s growing power needs, particularly for semiconductor plants and AI-driven data centers.

The government projects power demand will rise from 1 trillion kWh this decade to 1.35–1.5 trillion kWh by 2050, fueled by the expansion of energy-intensive industries like chip manufacturing.

For Chugoku Electric, restarting the Shimane reactor, after investing 900 billion yen ($6 billion) in post-Fukushima safety upgrades, is set to improve profitability. The utility expects a recurring profit increase of 11 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March, driven by reduced fossil fuel costs, the report says. 

About a week ago, Meta became the latest tech giant to embrace nuclear power with open arms. 

We noted that the tech giant had issued a sweeping “request for proposals” (RFP) aimed at identifying developers capable of bringing nuclear reactors online by the early 2030s to support its energy-intensive data centers and surrounding communities.

Axios wrote that Meta’s RFP targets an ambitious pipeline of new generation capacity ranging from one to four gigawatts. The company seeks partnerships with entities that can streamline the entire lifecycle of nuclear projects—from site selection and permitting to design, construction, and operation.

And just days ago we published a note from OilPrice.com asking whether or not the world has finally overcome the Chernobyl Disaster. It noted what we have been predicting for years: despite past challenges, there is a growing global interest in nuclear power as a key component of a sustainable energy future.

And as we have continued to report, accelerating power demand growth from AI data centers has sparked a nuclear power revival in the US:

• Amazon To Invest More Than $500 Million In Small Modular Nuclear Reactors To Power AWS

• Nuclear Names Surge After Three Mile Island Planned Restart To Power Microsoft Data Centers

• Nuclear Is Back: US Closes On $1.5 Billion Loan To Resurrect Holtec’s Palisades Nuclear Plant

• Sam Altman-Backed Nuclear Startup Oklo Signs Agreement With Dept. Of Energy For Next Phase Of Siting In Idaho

For those who missed it, in our note “The Next AI Trade” from April of this year, we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, most of which have dramatically outperformed the market.

Via The Cradle

Extremist armed factions across Syria are carrying out executions of civilians and soldiers amid the chaos following the fall of deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Al-Mayadeen reports on Tuesday that a video circulating on social media shows armed militants from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Al-Qaeda offshoot that took control of Damascus on Saturday, carrying out field executions of unarmed men in the village of al-Rabia in the countryside of Latakia.

The militants referred to the men as ‘Shabiha’, a derogatory term long used to describe pro-government Syrian soldiers and civilians.

The HTS military operations administration reported ongoing clashes in Al-Rabia, including the encirclement of a group of officers inside a fortified farm in the village, Al-Mayadeen stated.

In the Nawaha and Al-Asadiya neighborhoods, SNA militants burned houses of civilians, stole their property, and executed at least three people, including a woman, SOHR added.

On Monday, ISIS militants killed 54 Syrian army soldiers who were fleeing an attack by the terror group in the central province of Homs.

(Warning: Graphic)

🚨🇸🇾 Even more suspected SAA members are currently being EXECUTED by ISIS forces! pic.twitter.com/sKUsBWQGlS

— The Saviour (@stairwayto3dom) December 10, 2024

ISIS militants captured “personnel fleeing military service in the desert … during the collapse of the regime” of president Bashar al-Assad and “executed 54” of them in the Sukhna area in the Homs desert, SOHR stated.

Syrian sources reported the assassination on Tuesday of Sheikh Tawfiq al-Bhouti by unknown attackers. Bhouti was the son of the world-renowned Sunni Muslim scholar Sheikh Muhammad Saeed Ramadan al-Bhouti, who was assassinated along with 40 others in a mosque in 2013 by members of the Nusra Front, now known as HTS.

More ughly killings appearing in Syria.

Here is the Turkish-backed militia called Maghawir al-Sham as it combs through an Alawite village in the Homs countryside and carries out liquidation operations. https://t.co/finsaaf1r8

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) December 10, 2024

The elder Bhouti was an advocate of Sufism, and an opponent of Salafi interpretations of Islam that teach hatred against non-Muslims. Bhouti was a strong supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s government and spoke against the extremist armed groups attacking Syrian civilians, police, and soldiers during the war that began in 2011.

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls.

Despite being removed from the SWIFT banking network and being cut off from a large percentage of global trade, Russia has continued to garner solid export revenues. We certainly aren’t seeing the total collapse of the Russian economy that so many media “experts” predicted.  The reason? Russia is resource rich and in an inflationary environment countries that are heavy in commodities sold at lower prices are always sought after. The BRICS event this year was a reminder that the west’s financial influence is in decline.

At that same meeting, Putin called for an alternative international payment system and passed around a mock-up of what he called a BRICS “bank note”. The paper note was purely symbolic, but it’s presence at the summit started an uproar within the establishment media. Pundits were quick to “fact check” the story and declare that this was not a real unified currency announcement. As far as I know, no one said it was. What we did say, however, is that a real multilateral currency system cutting out the dollar is MUCH CLOSER than most people realize.

Putin flashed that banknote around because this is something the BRICS have been working on for well over a decade. Those cynics that think such a thing is impossible are living in denial, or, they have an agenda to peddle.

Donald Trump in particular seems to understand quite well that the BRICS currency concept is not a bluff or a joke. In a recent social media post, Trump threatened to increase tariffs for any nation that tries to diminish or replace the dollar’s world reserve status (the dollar is the premier currency used in the vast majority of international transactions). Putin responded with a warning that Trump’s efforts to reinforce the dollar would backfire.

Overall, Putin is right. Any move to force the dollar onto developing nations as a reserve currency will only result in them dumping it faster. Tariffs act as leverage for short term adjustments to trade imbalances, but they aren’t going to be effective in preventing other countries from using alternative currencies.

The problem with the dollar reserve system is its foundation. Officially established with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 as we neared the end of WWII, the unspoken deal underlying the dollar was that the US would get the economic benefits of reserve status, but in exchange America would be required to carry the bulk of military defense obligations for allies around the globe.

Five years later in 1949 NATO would be founded, the dollar was made the common currency denominator for all members and the US would end up paying 60% or more of all funding for the alliance for decades to come. The economic trade off was established – The US dollar gets the advantages of reserve status and the rest of the western world gets military protection from the US.

However, as far as eastern nations and the BRICS are concerned today, NATO is not an ally. There’s no agreement or unspoken doctrine which convinces the developing nations to maintain the dollar’s reserve status; only precarious import/export arrangements that can fall apart quickly if conflict arises.

And let’s be honest, the sparks of wider conflict are everywhere. At my current count, there are at least three regional proxy wars going on simultaneously that have the potential to kick off WWIII – Ukraine, Israel and Syria. Then there’s Taiwan, North Korea, and Georgia (Eastern Europe); regions that are constantly on the verge of going hot.

On top of that, there’s the steady decline of Western Europe, with Germany and France now in governmental limbo, not to mention the UK turning into an Orwellian police state. Americans are so insulated from the global crisis that’s unfolding that I worry millions will be caught completely off guard when it finally arrives on our doorstep.

To be sure, the US has its share of instability. The stagflation crisis is in its third year (officially) and prices don’t look like they will be coming down on most necessities any time soon. The illegal immigration crisis is about to come to a crescendo and we’re all waiting to see if the Trump Administration follows through on his promise of mass deportations. Then there’s the incredible debt crisis – Our government has added $6 trillion to the national debt in the past two years alone. We are creating over $1 trillion in new debt every 3-4 months and our debt to GDP ratio is 124%. This is unsustainable.

That said, we haven’t experienced any catastrophic economic disruptions yet. The loss of the dollar’s reserve status would bring historically devastating consequences, at least in the short term, and that’s only if our country devises a plan to weather the storm.

Conflicts between east and west are only going to grow given the existing conditions, and the calls for a dollar alternative are going to continue. There’s not much Trump can do about that. We also have to keep in mind that there are globalist institutions like the IMF and BIS that are, as I write this, getting ready to introduce CBDCs and cashless systems that would limit the dollar’s global influence by default.

When globalists pontificated endlessly about a “Great Reset” during the pandemic era, what they were talking about was primarily an economic reset and a currency reset. Klaus Schwab of the WEF stated ‘Now is the time for a great reset of capitalism’, and this event was supposed to precede a global shift into a cashless system.

There can’t be a global currency reset without the dollar being demoted. There can’t be a reset without a reversal of the old Bretton Woods system. They know it, and they aren’t going to warn the rest of the public about the consequences.

Everything is working against the dollar right now, and there’s a lot of people out there that question if it’s even worth saving. The Federal Reserve has been the source of considerable corruption within our government and I have often referred to central bankers as economic suicide bombers. But, the dollar is all we have until a tangible safety net can be established.

Instead of focusing on trying to intimidate the BRICS into sticking with the dollar, Trump should be drafting a plan to backstop our currency system with hard commodities to prevent greater inflation and ensuring that the US has the capacity to manufacture all our necessities domestically.

There is a chance this could be done under Trump; there was zero chance it would have been done under Kamala Harris. So, at least there’s hope.

At bottom, it’s impossible to keep the dollar in a position of global dominance when every element of geopolitics is working against it and the very globalist organizations that helped create the Bretton Woods system are now trying to dismantle it. It’s time to localize, build redundancies and get ready for the greater crisis at hand., because one way or another difficult changes are coming.

*  *  *

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