Think everyone and their cousin is already on Ozempic? And surely everyone can stop talking about it now?

Think again.

The weight-loss drug market still has a lot of room to grow, according to latest estimates by Morgan Stanley Research.

Visual Capitalits’s Marcus Lu visualizes their forecasted value of the global obesity drug market till 2030 and go into a few reasons to explain why it’s trending upwards.

A Tide of Weight Management Drugs Are Coming

Morgan Stanley expects the weight-loss drug market to be worth $77 billion by 2030, more than 5x what it is in 2024.

A key part of this is the broadening utility of these medicines. After all, semaglutide, the key ingredient in drugs like Ozempic, WeGovy and Rybelsus was initially developed for diabetes management.

Its appetite suppressant abilities put it on the weight-loss market. But weight management also lowers the risk of heart attacks and strokes, it could be prescribed for many related issues.

Meanwhile, viral social media promotion of before-and-after results creates a feedback loop, in turn increasing demand. And finally in the U.S., there is a concerted push to expand coverage for these drugs which can cost upwards of $900 a dose without insurance.

In fact, Morgan Stanley estimates that the current market value is restrained by supply, and as new players enter and regulations change, it will be able to grow to keep pace with demand.

The majority of obesity management drug revenue comes from the U.S., though its share of the global total is expected to decrease throughout this decade to 66% in 2030.

Currently the WHO estimates obesity causes 5% of deaths every year, and afflicts close to 750 million people, or about 9% of the world’s population.

Wondering why American demand for obesity drugs is so high? Check out Mapped: Countries with the Highest Obesity Rates to find out.

Authored by Eldar Vakhitov via BondVigilantes.com,

A few days ago, Bulgaria finally reached an agreement with Austria, removing the last hurdle that blocked its entry to the Schengen area. The EU council is now expected to approve the country joining the passport-free travel area in early December. This clearly represents a milestone in Bulgaria’s integration process into the EU and should help cross-border trade and investment. Meanwhile, a much more impactful achievement for the country’s economy – joining the euro area – remains elusive at the moment.

Back in July 2020, Bulgaria and Croatia joined the ERM II mechanism, marking an important formal step towards euro adoption. Since then, the seemingly similar economic fates of the two countries have diverged significantly.

In Croatia, the authorities were determined to join the euro area as soon as possible. After the minimum required two-year period in the ERM II mechanism, the European Commission assessed in its June 2022 convergence report that Croatia fulfilled all the required criteria, allowing the country to adopt the euro in January 2023. At the same time, Croatia also joined the Schengen area. Somewhat surprisingly, political stability proved to be the crucial element in the process. The Croatian Democratic Union has ruled the country since 2016, winning three consecutive parliamentary elections, with prime minister Plenkovic becoming the longest-serving prime minister in Croatia’s history. This stability allowed the authorities to consistently push through the necessary legislation and ensure continuous cooperation with the EU institutions.

Consequently, the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) were ready to somewhat soften their usually firm stance with regards to meeting the stringent requirements for euro adoption. In particular, the inflation criterion was deemed to be met despite the fact that Croatia’s inflation was likely to exceed the reference rate due to the global commodity price shock in 2022. Furthermore, the sizeable decline in public debt was deemed sufficient to outweigh the fact that it still significantly exceeded the 60% of GDP threshold at the time of the European Commission’s assessment. In the end, the EU institutions had full confidence that Croatia would meet the criteria anyway due to the government’s unwavering commitment to solid policies, so delaying euro adoption was not deemed necessary. And Croatia did deliver – current inflation is roughly equal to the euro area’s average, while public debt is expected to finally decline below 60% of GDP this year.

Source: IMF, M&G (December 2024)

Almost two years later, it is clear that adopting the euro has delivered significant benefits to Croatia. To start with, it has eliminated the foreign exchange risk in the economy, as significant euro-denominated government and private sector liabilities were ‘converted’ to local currency overnight. Euro adoption has also boosted trade, investment, and particularly tourism, which represents at least 20% of Croatia’s GDP. Since Croatia joined the EU in 2013, its real GDP growth was only slightly outperforming the euro area average. However, in the last three years, the outperformance has widened to 3 percentage points. This has allowed the country to accelerate its income convergence with more advanced euro area peers. Croatia’s GDP per capita (PPP) is expected to reach 78% of EU’s average this year, up from 71% in 2021.

Most importantly, euro area adoption has greatly reduced Croatia’s cost of financing. The speed of the country’s credit rating upgrades has been quite remarkable, perhaps even unprecedented in recent history – less than three years ago, Croatia wasn’t even a full investment grade-rated country with a Ba1 rating from Moody’s. Meanwhile, this autumn’s upgrades allowed the country to join an elite club of about a dozen other emerging market economies that are A-rated by all three main rating agencies. In line with this, the spread of Croatian government bonds over German government bonds has tightened from about 150bp in late 2021 to about 70-80bp now.

Croatia’s success story only highlights Bulgaria’s lack of progress in the past few years. As a reminder, both countries joined the ERM II mechanism at the same time, making January 2023 the earliest possible date for euro adoption for Bulgaria as well. Almost two years later, there is still no scheduled date for this to happen. The delay looks even longer considering the fact that Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 – if it had managed to match Croatia’s speed of progress, it could have adopted the euro back in 2017.

Source: IMF, M&G (December 2024)

At first glance, the lack of progress looks even more surprising given that Bulgaria has never had a problem with meeting the (arguably most important) fiscal criteria for joining the euro area. In the past decade, budget deficits were consistently around 3% of GDP or below, even in 2020 when for most countries they skyrocketed due to the COVID pandemic. Due to robust budget policies Bulgaria has enjoyed one of the lowest public debt levels in Europe – during the past twenty years, it has never exceeded 30% of GDP. This is in stark contrast with Croatia’s somewhat volatile public debt path, which peaked at 86% of GDP in 2020. On the monetary policy front, Bulgaria has had a fixed exchange to the euro (and previously Deutsche Mark) since 1997, meaning it could have potentially joined the ERM II mechanism much earlier than 2020. Inflation has not been a problem either, staying below 3% (annual average) in the past decade apart from the 2022-23 global commodity price shock.

With economic criteria comfortably met, the reasons for long delays to the euro adoption lie in political and governance issues. According to the Worldwide Governance Indicators, Bulgaria has consistently scored well below Croatia (and most other EU members) in the past decade. In fact, its score notably deteriorated since 2019 due to weaker government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability. Since 2021, the country has been subject to a multi-year election cycle, with seven parliamentary elections happening in less than four years. The reason is that none of the elections has been able to produce a stable government due to a high degree of political polarisation, with coalitions between different parties proving to be short-lived. Needless to say, passing the necessary legislation required for the euro adoption and improving the country’s institutions has been slow in such circumstances. The latest election in October has so far failed to break the negative trend, with the largest party winning less than 30% of parliamentary seats and other parties not willing to cooperate with it or each other. This has already raised the likelihood of yet another election next spring.

Source: Bloomberg, M&G (December 2024)

According to the European Commission’s June convergence report, Bulgaria has met all euro adoption criteria except for inflation. However, inflation was temporarily high only due to a global commodity price shock and has in fact already declined below the euro area average in recent months (the European Commission’s assessment takes into account the average inflation in the past year). As Croatia’s example shows, perhaps the inflation criterion could have been softened by the EU institutions – if there had been a stable government to negotiate with. Unsurprisingly, the delay in euro adoption has been costly for the Bulgarian economy, which has witnessed lower real GDP growth and slower income convergence with the EU compared to Croatia.

Back in 2020, Bulgaria was rated higher than Croatia by all three main rating agencies – now it is rated one to two notches lower, having not seen any upgrades since 2020. The most vivid illustration is the relative yields of the two countries – in late 2021, Bulgaria was trading about 60bp tighter than Croatia; now it is trading 20bp wider. A January 2026 euro adoption target is still within reach for Bulgaria, but for that to be achieved, the political parties perhaps need to put their country’s interests first.

Via Remix News,

Bordered by Russia to the north and Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan to the south, Georgia is taking a sharp turn towards Russia. The government suspended talks on accession to the European Union after the European Parliament resolution on Georgian election fraud. Georgians took to the streets and fierce protests are ongoing; however, looking at the results of the Georgian economy, many things become clear.

The Georgian Dream party has been ruling Georgia almost independently since 2016, although it has been involved in government since 2012, but then as part of a coalition. It is now facing strong unrest in the country after elections that have been allegedly rigged, at least according to the European Parliament. In response, the Georgian government has suspended the accession process to the European Union for four years 

The sixth-highest economic growth in the world

Looking at the economic results, it must be admitted that during the Georgian Dream government, the country developed economically at a very high rate, one of the highest in the world. This year, according to the IMF’s October forecasts, it will see 7.6 percent GDP growth, which is the sixth-highest growth in the world. In 2023, only 11 countries developed faster than Georgia, including Georgia’s neighbor Armenia.

Since 2016, Georgia has moved from 95th to 75th place in the world in terms of national income per capita, calculated according to purchasing power parity (PPP). Poland is in 42nd place in this ranking.

While in 2016 GDP per capita according to PPP in Georgia amounted to 46 percent of that in Poland, this year it is to be 53 percent. Georgia is quickly catching up with us, although Poland is one of the fastest developing countries in the European Union.

Compared to Russia, this is a jump from 51 to 58 percent, and IMF forecasts say that next year it will exceed 60 percent. The level of Chinese GDP per capita was exceeded by Georgia in 2022, and this year Georgians are expected to exceed 104 percent. With Georgians able to boast about faster development than China, it is certainly a reason for satisfaction among the Georgian population

Their standard of living is improving quite rapidly, but what is driving this improvement? The economy is a good explanation for why the Georgian government chose Russia over the West.

Tourism and new technologies

The fastest growing sector in Georgia is the information and communications sector, which has grown by 260 percent since 2016 in current prices and accounted for 4.1 percent of GDP last year. This year, it grew by 19.8 percent in the second quarter. The growth of this sector in the Georgian economy was clearly helped by emigration from Russia immediately after the outbreak of the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. In 2022, the first year of the conflict, the dynamics of this sector amounted to almost 64 percent.

The entertainment and leisure sector, i.e., tourism, is also developing rapidly, with gross income increasing by 176 percent in current prices since 2016; this year it grew by 17.3 percent year-over-year and currently generates 3.5 percent of GDP.

The trade sector is also very dynamic, with a 157 percent increase since 2016 and 8.1 percent this year, which is 12.4 percent of GDP. This is related to the development of tourism and the increase in the wealth of society.

The most important segment in Georgian GDP is still industry, which has grown by 106 percent since 2016, and in the second quarter of this year by 15.9 percent y/y in current prices. It currently accounts for 15.9 percent of GDP.

Based on this data, from the economic perspective, it is industry and its export capabilities that are another reason for the Georgian government to shift its emphasis from the EU to Russia.

Collapse of exports to the EU

With the Covid-19 break in 2020, Georgia’s exports in dollars have been growing steadily. In 2022, they will grow by 31.6 percent y/y to $5.6 billion, and last year they will reach $6.1 billion (+9 percent y/y). However, the growth rate has fallen this year to +5.3 percent y/y, for the 12 months ending in October.

And it fell as a result of the collapse in exports to the EU market, while exports to Russia, despite the weakness of the ruble, grew in dollar terms in 2023 by another 2.3 percent to $657 million. Meanwhile, those to EU countries fell by as much as 18.3 percent to $704 million. In 2024, it looks even worse, with exports to the EU falling by as much as 27.7 percent y/y to $549 million in the 12 months ending in October, while exports to Russia, although they also fell, decreased by only 0.3 percent to $678 million.

Russia has become a more important market for Georgia than the EU, and a place where Russian tourists spend their money. The economic choice for Georgia is quite obvious at the moment.

Even neighboring countries are now larger recipients of Georgian goods than the EU: Azerbaijan ($759 million for the 12 months to October) and Armenia ($641 million). Georgia exports slightly less to Turkey ($475 million). The country’s economic interests are closely linked to the nearby geographical region, not the more distant EU.

Not wine, but KAZ trucks

At the same time, Georgia’s most important export is not the famous Georgian wines, but transport equipment. Its foreign sales increased since 2016 from $151 million per year to $872 million in 2023. What’s more, counting the 12 months to the end of October 2024, it is already as much as $2.5 billion, or as much as 36.4 percent of Georgian exports — according to data from the Georgian Statistical Office.

Of this, as much as $974 million went to Kyrgyzstan this year, and €625 million to Kazakhstan. The surge in exports of transport equipment to these two countries has occurred since 2022, and it is hard not to link this to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

In 2021, exports of transport equipment from Georgia to Kazakhstan amounted to $24 million, a year later to $108 million, and this year to October to $625 million. 

To Kyrgyzstan, exports of transport equipment amounted to $2.2 million in 2021, $5.8 million a year later, $66.2 million in 2023, and $127 million in the first 10 months of 2024. It seems that the Georgian economy has been harnessed into Russia’s war machine, and it is benefiting from it.

The largest transport equipment company in Georgia is the Kutaisi-based KAZ truck manufacturer, part of the Georgian Industrial Group holding. This company was founded and is currently headed by David Bezhuashvili (30 percent of shares), a Georgian parliamentarian until 2016, whose brother Gela was even the country’s foreign minister.

Georgian wine is bought by Russians and Poles

When it comes to wine, Russia is also the largest recipient. In the 10 months of this year, out of the $237 million of wine exports, Russians bought $161 million. Interestingly, Poland is the second-largest recipient, but this means imports amounting to only $13 million.

As can be seen from the above, Georgia’s economy benefits from contacts with Russia. Economic links with the European Union are much smaller. At the same time, the data suggests that Georgia is making money from the war in Ukraine, fueling one of the highest economic growth rates in the world. A possible redirection of economic preferences could probably only occur after Turkey’s admission to the EU, which does not seem to be the case in the coming years.

Read more here….

Authored by Samuel Rodriguez via RealClearPolitics,

In recent months, a disturbing revelation has emerged from the heart of our nation’s immigration system: Over 300,000 unaccompanied migrant children who crossed the U.S. border during the Biden-Harris administration are unaccounted for. An internal Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report dated Aug. 19, 2024, confirms this alarming statistic, highlighting a profound failure in our duty to protect the most vulnerable.

The DHS report reveals that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has lost track of at least 32,000 unaccompanied migrant children, with the whereabouts of up to 323,000 remaining unknown. Without a doubt, we cannot deny the fact that many of these children are now tools and victims of the human sex trafficking industry – a heinous trade that represents the worst of the worst. This staggering number raises urgent questions about the safety and well-being of these children. They are left to fend for themselves in a dangerous world without proper oversight.

The House of Representatives has taken notice, holding a hearing on Nov. 19, 2024, entitled “Trafficked, Exploited, and Missing: Migrant Children Victims of the Biden-Harris Administration.” This hearing aims to address the systemic failures that have led to this crisis and to hold those responsible for the welfare of these children accountable.

The New York Times has previously reported on the challenges faced by unaccompanied migrant children. On Feb. 15, 2023, an article highlighted the surge in child labor among migrant children, noting that many are forced into hazardous jobs to survive. Another report on April 17, 2023, detailed the lack of proper vetting for sponsors, leading to situations where children are placed in unsafe environments. These reports underscore a pattern of neglect and systemic failure that demands immediate action.

It is worth recalling the outcry during the Trump administration over the alleged “children in cages” narrative – a claim that was later debunked. The media and public were swift to condemn what was perceived as inhumane treatment of migrant children. Yet now, faced with the reality of hundreds of thousands of missing children, there is a deafening silence. Where is the collective moral outrage? How is it that a false alarm over detention centers led to national protests, but the disappearance of over 300,000 children has not moved us to the same level of indignation?

The current administration must be held accountable for this humanitarian crisis. President Biden and Vice President Harris must take immediate and decisive action to locate these missing children and ensure their safety. Furthermore, those in positions of oversight who have failed in their duties must resign. The American people deserve transparency and accountability from their leaders, especially when the lives of innocent children are at stake.

This is not a partisan issue; it is a moral imperative. The missing children are not just statistics; they are human beings, many of whom are now trapped in a cycle of abuse and exploitation. The human sex trafficking industry thrives on the most vulnerable, and these children, abandoned by the very systems meant to protect them, are its latest victims.

We must demand answers and action. The time for complacency has passed. We must find the children. Let this be the rallying cry for a nation that claims to champion the cause of justice and freedom.

Let the moral conscience of America awaken. Let the lives of these children remind us of our responsibility. Let us not rest until they are found.

Rev. Samuel Rodriguez is lead pastor of New Season Church in Sacramento, California, and president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference. He has advised three U.S. presidents and is the first Latino to participate in multiple presidential inauguration ceremonies.  

The Kremlin in a fresh Wednesday statement appeared to engage in a bit of trolling of South Korea and its Western backers like the US following the prior day’s wild and short-lived martial law events.

“North Korea’s concerns over its security are understandable given the political instability in the South,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, which is somewhat ironic given the West constantly stresses the real threat and source of regional instability is actually Pyongyang. 

Her comments sought to emphasize the unpredictability of democracies supported by Washington. “In my opinion, many have understood why the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea)… is so concerned over its security,” she said.

“It’s because they see that in a couple of hours [South Korea] can morph from a professed democracy into absolute chaos, with tanks on the streets, a storming of parliament, popular confrontation and some brute-force tactics,” Zakharova continued. 

This means the north’s vigilance and constant state of war readiness – which has included increased weapons testing of late – is entirely justified, she suggested in her explanation, given the “unpredictable” neighbor to the south.

Just before 5am local time on Wednesday South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol lifted his martial-law declaration after parliament voted unanimously against the measure. Troops had at one point stormed the parliament building, and there were bizarre scenes of lawmakers scaling fences to get back in.

He had argued his drastic move was necessary as his political opponents made the nation vulnerable to North Korean “communist forces” as government couldn’t function. Parliament rejected the rationale.

https://t.co/PO46lo60pi pic.twitter.com/UTBBhXjYeS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 3, 2024

“The martial law is aimed at eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom,” the 63-year old Yoon had claimed while declaring martial law on Tuesday.

The less than day-long episode marked the largest flare-up in political turmoil in South Korea since full-scale martial law was declared in the spring of 1980.

Authored by Nick Kayal via RealClearPennsylvania,

Donald Trump completed his comeback to become the 47th president of the United States in resounding fashion. Trump was able to sweep the seven swing states, win the popular vote, and lead the charge as the GOP took back the Senate and retained the House, all while the party holds a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. There are many positives to highlight about Trump’s win, including his gains among black male and Latino voters, but the most fascinating ingredient of his success may be his appeal to Generation Z and young males, thanks in part to the evolving media landscape and how media is now consumed.

According to NBC News exit poll data, Trump received 43% of Gen-Z voters (those between the ages of 18 and 29). Within that subset, Trump also received 42% of those aged 18 to 24. This youngest voting- eligible demographic accounts for only 14% of those who voted, but it’s fascinating to analyze how a 78-year-old Republican was able to appeal to them. He did so by making himself available where young people spend their time – on social media, following influencers, and listening to podcast hosts.

As Politico has reported, Republicans increasingly seek out alternative news sources. Only 21% of Republicans read newspapers in 2024. Just 35% watched national network news. Republicans go to websites and apps 39% of the time. Forty-six percent gather information from social media (presumably X, Truth, and Rumble). A staggering 55% consume on-demand audio and video, such as podcasts and streaming services. Trump and his campaign staff understood this.

Enter Joe Rogan.

Trump appeared on Rogan’s Spotify show and spent three hours talking with the top podcast host in the world. Trump also joined the Theo Vonn podcast. He visited other hot properties such as Aidan Ross’s gamer channel and “Bussin’ with the Boys.” These interviews had an impact on young American voters; the casual, conversational approach to politics has appealed to Gen-Z and created a connection with Trump.

“Trump’s victory isn’t a result of a failure by news outlets to sufficiently hold him accountable,” an article at Semafor explains. “The real answer is one that is a lot more uncomfortable to grapple with: The national news media is more limited in its reach and influence than ever in the modern era.”

The NBC News exit polling data for swing states reveals striking numbers for the Generation Z demographic. In Pennsylvania, Trump received 41% of the Gen Z vote. In Georgia, it was 39%. In North Carolina, Trump won almost half (forty-nine percent); in Wisconsin, he took 45%, and in Michigan, 49%.

Worth noting, too, is that Trump did better with Gen Z women than in 2020, which seems almost unfathomable when you consider that he was running against Kamala Harris, who made abortion rights a centerpiece of her campaign. Trump lost young women to Joe Biden by 35 points in 2020. In 2024, he reduced that deficit by eleven points, as Harris won by twenty-four points. Trump also made a 13-point swing in his favor with young men overall, compared to 2020, when Biden won these voters by 11 points.

Donald Trump is a generational political figure. He surrounded himself with staffers who understood the shift in electoral and communication dynamics – how to get your message out and who to get it out to. Platforms matter. Evolving is essential. Trump did so, and it proved a major factor in defeating an opponent and a party that the media portrayed as more tech savvy. They were wrong, again – and Trump has won, again.

“Remember y’all laughed at me when I first got my Bitcoin – who’s laughing now?”

In early 2022, Adams took his first three paychecks as New York City mayor in Bitcoin and Ethereum – a sum of crypto that would have equaled roughly $32,000 at the time, according to publicly available data.

Since then, Bitcoin has more than doubled in price and Ethereum has climbed some 40% in the same period.

This morning, Adams, currently facing wire fraud and conspiracy charges, appeared to mock attendees at the groundbreaking ceremony for a museum over his Bitcoin holdings. 

#IYKYK #FFTB

“You all mocked me, ‘You’re taking your first 3 paychecks in #Bitcoin, what’s wrong with you?’ Now you wish you would have done.”

NYC Mayor Eric Adams

pic.twitter.com/PtRMiGMhIb

— Steve | Crypto.com (@skalifowitz) December 4, 2024

As CoinTelegraph’s Turner Wright reports, speaking at the American LGBTQ+ Museum on Dec. 3, Mayor Adams responded to a question about Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s potential role in the United States government, pivoting to Bitcoin he received while in office.

According to the mayor, people “should not be afraid of Bitcoin” then appeared to mock viewers and attendees.

“Remember y’all laughed at me when I first got my Bitcoin — who’s laughing now?” said Adams.

“Go look at my Bitcoin now. You all mock me. ‘You’re taking your first three paychecks in Bitcoin, what’s wrong with you?’ Now you wish you would have done it.”

Adams, who assumed office as the Mayor of New York City in January 2022, announced after winning his election that he intended to accept his first three paychecks in Bitcoin.

The price of BTC at the time of his announcement was roughly $61,000 – the cryptocurrency has since surged to roughly $96,000, an increase of 57%.

In September, US authorities indicted Adams on one count of conspiracy to receive campaign contributions from foreign nationals and commit wire fraud and bribery, one count of wire fraud, two counts of soliciting campaign contributions from foreign nationals, and one count of soliciting and accepting a bribe.

If given the maximum sentences for each charge served consecutively, he could face decades in prison if convicted.

As mayor, Adams has often been a proponent of many policies favorable to digital assets, including promises to make New York City the “center of the cryptocurrency industry.”

He also criticized legislation passed by the state’s government in 2022 that imposed a two-year moratorium on proof-of-work mining using non-renewable energy sources.

Adams’ offer to accept his paychecks in Bitcoin came in response to a social media challenge for elected officials to earn a crypto-based salary.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who won reelection in 2021, said he would accept his first paycheck in BTC, prompting Adams to say he would take the first three.  

As with many subjects, Adams’ relationship to crypto is not without controversy.

A year after taking a chunk of his salary home in BTC and ETH, the mayor landed in hot water for failing to disclose his crypto holdings in a mandatory report filed with the city’s Conflict of Interest Board.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

In recent months, quite a few pundits have been openly warning us that World War III has begun.  Sadly, those pundits are quite correct.  Right now, a historic global struggle is being waged by two very powerful alliances.  The “western alliance” made up of the United States, Europe, Israel and their allies is engaged in a battle for supremacy with the “eastern alliance” made up of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Syria and their allies.  Over the past week, this battle for supremacy has erupted on a couple of new fronts, but most Americans have no idea what is really going on.

Just look at what is happening in Syria.  Most Americans have no idea that radical Sunni Muslims backed by the western alliance just conducted a highly successful offensive on Syria’s second largest city and are threatening to overthrow the Assad regime once and for all…

The Syrian military and its ally Russia conducted deadly joint air raids Monday on areas that Islamist-led rebels seized control of over the weekend. The strikes were a response to a lightning offensive by the rebels that saw them wrest control of swathes of northwest Syria from government forces.

The conflict that started more than a decade ago took a significant turn several days ago, catching many — including, it seems, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his Russian backers — by surprise. On Saturday, rebels, including many with the U.S.-designated Islamic terrorist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), took control of the major city of Aleppo in northern Syria.

The rebels seized Aleppo’s airport and started pushing into towns and villages in the countryside around the city on Sunday after leaving piles of dead government soldiers in the streets. Observers said the rebel forces were often met with little to no resistance by regime forces, but by Monday the pace of the surprise offensive appeared to have slowed, with Assad and his Russian backers ramping-up their response.

While she served as Secretary of State during the Obama administration, Hillary Clinton was instrumental in starting the civil war in Syria.  That civil war caused a massive refugee crisis that western Europe is still wrestling with to this day.

Now the civil war in Syria has freshly erupted, and if Assad gets toppled that will be a major victory for the western alliance.

Of course the eastern alliance does not plan to go down without a fight.  Over the weekend, Iraqi militia groups that are backed by Iran “have been pouring across the border into eastern Syria”…

Widespread reports, including observers on the ground, have indicated that Iran-backed Iraqi militias have been pouring across the border into eastern Syria to assist Damascus in repelling the Islamist militant advance after Al Qaeda splinter group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham took over Aleppo this weekend.

A Syrian army officer has told Reuters that Iraqi militia forces crossing the border are “fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the frontlines in the north.”

Many of the fighters have been identified as belonging to the Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups. The US has long been in an internecine conflict with Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, with over the years periodic rocket fire even targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad, as well as various bases which host remaining American troops.

And it appears that Iranian military forces could be on the verge of intervening directly in the conflict…

Boroujerdi told a news conference in Damascus that Iran was ready to render military assistance to Syria. “Iran’s military aid will be provided as soon as Tehran receives a request from the Syrian government. We are going to announce it immediately,” the Iranian deputy said.

Boroujerdi, who is heading an Iranian delegation, arrived in Damascus on Wednesday for talks with Syrian Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to meet Boroujerdi on Thursday.

The Iranian deputy stressed the importance of the four-sided coordination of efforts by Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria in fighting terrorism.

Iran normally prefers to fight their wars using proxy forces.

But desperate times call for desperate measures.

Meanwhile, Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah seems to be breaking down already…

The ceasefire in Lebanon, barely five days old, is near collapse as of Monday after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, following the Biden-Harris administration’s erroneous claim that Israeli surveillance drones violated the agreement.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported Monday that two Hezbollah rockets had been fired at Har (Mount) Dov, a strategic mountain that Breitbart News visited last Thursday and which Hezbollah claims, wrongly, is Lebanese.

If Hezbollah is forced to keep their forces in Lebanon in order to contend with the IDF, they won’t be able to intervene in the conflict in Syria.

Ultimately, so many of these conflicts are interrelated.

Ukraine is hoping that at least some Russian forces get diverted to Syria to help the Assad regime, because last month the Ukrainians lost a great deal of territory…

Ukraine has endured a tough three months in which Russian forces made gains across the front, which are likely continue over winter, a military analyst has said.

“The trend is very worrying, and there’s no reason to expect the situation to calm down in December either,” Emil Kastehelmi, from the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, told Newsweek.

In an X, formerly Twitter, thread, the OSINT analyst said that, in the three months to December, Moscow’s troops had captured around 617 square miles in Ukraine and 190 in Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukrainian forces had staged an incursion but where they have lost the western flank, as well as positions in the Donbas region.

Ukraine is the one place where the western alliance is losing badly, and western politicians are extremely determined to turn things around.

But the truth is that unless NATO gets directly involved, Ukraine will definitely lose.

As the war drags on, Ukrainian soldiers are deserting from their posts in staggering numbers…

More than twice as many Ukrainian soldiers have been charged with desertion this year than in 2022 and 2023 combined, the Financial Times has reported. The spike in desertions has hampered Kiev’s ability to replenish its thinned-out ranks.

Ukrainian prosecutors opened 60,000 cases against deserters between January and October of this year, the British newspaper reported on Saturday, noting that those convicted face prison terms of up to 12 years.

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have already died on the killing fields of eastern Ukraine.

Let us hope for an agreement that will bring the endless slaughter to an end.

Before I conclude this article, I want to mention one more nation where the great battle between east and west has suddenly erupted.

In Georgia, angry protesters that are being backed by the western alliance have been clashing violently with the police for days.  Just like we witnessed in Ukraine in 2014, it appears that this could be an attempt to overthrow the democratically-elected government of Georgia…

Days of protests have rocked Georgia following the government’s controversial decision to delay the former Soviet country’s bid to join the European Union.

Tensions have been brewing for months in the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million people, where critics accuse the ruling Georgian Dream party of following increasingly authoritarian, pro-Russia policies in a turn away from the West that has tempered hopes for Georgia’s long-promised path to EU membership.

The protests have been met with a violent police crackdown as the ruling party and thousands of protesters become locked in a deepening battle over the country’s future and whether Georgia should forge closer ties with Russia or Europe.

The U.S. and Europe would love to see a “color revolution” that removes the Georgian Dream party from power.

Of course the Russians and other eastern alliance nations would very much like to avert such an outcome.

I just wish that every country would be allowed to do what they want without outside interference.

But that isn’t going to happen, is it?

Sadly, the great struggle between east and west that we are witnessing is just going to continue to intensify, and at this stage it should be obvious to everyone that it is not going to have a happy ending.

We live in such perilous times, and if you have not been paying much attention to what is going on around the world now would be a great time to start.

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Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Soon after the fall of Aleppo last week, rumors began to circulate that the longtime head of Syrian Al-Qaeda (now called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS) Abu Mohammad al-Julani, was killed in a Russian retaliatory airstrike in Idlib. These claims made it into Lebanese and Israeli media, but with no verification.

But the rumors were laid to rest on Wednesday with Julani’s unexpected appearance in the center of historic Aleppo. Al Jazeera featured footage (below) of the HTS leader descending the steps of the historic and iconic Aleppo citadel in what was clearly a ‘victory’ celebration.

The terror leader, who has a $10 million bounty on his head by the FBI and US Rewards for Justice program, is asserting ownership over the major northern Syrian city. His jihadist forces are currently threatening the central city of Hama as well.

According to the latest from the Associated Press, “Syrian insurgents captured four new towns early Tuesday, bringing them closer to the central city of Hama, opposition activists said, while government forces retook some territory they lost last week.”

Large Syrian Army reinforcements have been observed heading north from Damascus over the last 24 hours. The HTS militants and AQ-aligned groups are less than six miles from Hama, and have threatened and taken adjacent towns on the edge of the city.

Julani is believed supported from Turkey, and likely by other allied Western nations’ intelligence services as well, despite his Al-Qaeda background. Once known as the Nusra Front, which early in the Syrian war of the last decade cooperated at times with the Islamic State, the group now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has long attempted a rebranding campaign. 

قائد هيئة تحرير الشام “أبو محمد الجولاني” يزور مدينة #حلب بعد سيطرة فصائل المعارضة عليها ضمن عملية #ردع_العدوان#فيديو pic.twitter.com/IjN6Il1QqX

— الجزيرة سوريا (@AJA_Syria) December 4, 2024

HTS has gone through many names and iterations over the years while holding on to much of Idlib province bordering Turkey, even as much of the rest of Syria came back under the control of the Assad government. 

Still, Washington has long admitted it is a terror organization. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday  that HTS remains “a terrorist organization designated by the United States” and expressed that the US has “real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.” But he also admitted that the US will not “cry” over the pressure the Syrian government and its allies are facing from the successful offensive on Aleppo.

Meanwhile, just like in the opening years of the war, the US mainstream media is once again working overtime trying to whitewash Syria’s Al Qaeda factions, presenting them as mere ‘rebels’ and ‘revolutionaries’. The below is a real line from The Wall Street Journal this week:

Once affiliated with Islamic State and al Qaeda, Jawlani professes religious tolerance.

“They look scary… exactly how you imagine when someone says a terrorist: long beards and crazy hair. But they’re nice.”@yarotrof and @IsabelColes on HTS’ reinvented leader Jawlani whose rebels stormed Aleppo and reignited Syria’s civil warhttps://t.co/TjCPGJPKYM

— Sune Engel Rasmussen (@SuneEngel) December 3, 2024

Likely there will much more such obvious propaganda efforts to come. But the supposedly ‘tolerant’ Julani is still on the FBI’s ‘most wanted’ list, and no amount of obfuscation or Gulf think tank sponsored rebranding campaigns will change that.

Given that the terror chief just appeared out in the open, posing on top of the Aleppo Citadel, the CIA or US military likely could have taken him out with a drone… but they won’t.