Shake Shack plunged on Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels since November 2023, after the burger chain slashed second-quarter guidance only about a month after issuing it.
Baird analyst David Tarantino said the new outlook is viewed as “incrementally negative” for Shake Shack.
Tarantino noted that management had set an “unusually high bar” for 2Q comparable performance with its previous outlook, implying mid- to high-single-digit comps in May and June after -.6%.
He added that the updated guidance ranges may be attributed to new CFO Michelle Hook, who started May 11, and said “desire to set a more achievable bar going forward.”
The burger chain, which has 445 stores in the U.S., now expects second-quarter revenue of $415 million to $420 million, down from its prior forecast of $424 million to $428 million.
Same-Shack sales growth is now expected to be 2.5% to 3%, down from the earlier 3% to 5% range. Shares sank 11% in the late-morning cash session, extending a nearly yearlong bear-market slide.
Here’s a snapshot of the 2Q Forecast:
Sees total revenue $415 million to $420 million, saw $424 million to $428 million, estimate $421.9 million
Sees licensing revenue $13.5 million to $13.7 million
Sees same-Shack sales 2.5% to 3%, saw 3% to 5%
Sees restaurant level operating margin 22% to 23%, estimate 24.2%
Sees Company-operating openings about 16, estimate 18
“These results are particularly encouraging in the face of a challenging macro environment and inclement weather,” Shake Shack wrote in a corporate presentation.
The downgrade adds to concerns that higher beef prices and other input prices are compressing margins. There are also concerns that cash-strapped consumers are dialing back purchases on higher-priced menu items.
Last month, Shake Shack reported a small multi-million-dollar loss in the first quarter despite a 14% revenue increase, reflecting the costs of investments to boost foot traffic.
Shares are now roughly 60% off their peak, a drawdown that has historically coincided with the stock’s bottom. That said, downside pressure could still extend toward the $40 to $50 range, which has served as support during previous selloffs.
Shake Shack’s guidance cut suggests the premium growth story is over for at least now, and the fast-casual restaurant chain may need a clearer turnaround plan to reignite Wall Street optimism. Perhaps that’s what CFO Hook is about to engineer in the quarters ahead.
The Pentagon announced Monday that reporters will no longer have open access to the War Department’s public affairs office after the space was redesignated as a classified facility to accommodate staff handling sensitive material.
The announcement marks the latest effort by the Pete Hegseth-led War Department to tighten operational security and reshape longstanding media access practices inside the Pentagon.
Under the new policy, the Pentagon’s public affairs office has been converted into a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, commonly known as a SCIF.
The office had previously allowed journalists to enter without escorts and directly approach military public affairs officials with questions.
Pentagon spokesman Joel Valdez said the change was necessary because speechwriters working in the office routinely handle classified material and require access to secure government systems.
“This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that,” Valdez wrote in a post on X.
This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that.
The Pentagon Press Office has been redesignated as a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility due to speechwriters from the Office of the Secretary of War… https://t.co/tlWb1XIeOk
— Acting Press Sec Joel Valdez (@JoelValdezDOW) June 1, 2026
“These speechwriters routinely handle classified material and require SIPRNet access. As a result, journalists will no longer be permitted to enter the office space. There’s nothing controversial about that,” he added.
Valdez said reporters will still have access to the Pentagon press secretary and the Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs through scheduled appointments.
The policy change comes months after War Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed additional restrictions on media operations at the Pentagon.
Last October, the department introduced new rules allowing officials to revoke press credentials from reporters designated as security risks.
The New York Times subsequently filed two lawsuits against the Pentagon, arguing the restrictions violate First Amendment protections. Both cases remain pending in court.
HSBC Warns Of Commodity “Super-Squeeze” As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts
Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a “super-squeeze” with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.
Let’s begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that “metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand.”
They warned that commodities were facing a “super-squeeze” with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
HSBC’s note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:
Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.
At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:
Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.
The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:
We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).
She mapped out three price scenarios for copper:
1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.
2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.
3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.
With Hormuz still all but shuttered and only a 22% chance that the critical waterway reopens by the end of June, according to a Polymarket bet, it would take many months, if not quarters, to normalize shipping flows. This indicates that the commodities cycle will likely remain bullish into early summer.
The State Department updated its travel advisory for Mexico on May 29, continuing to warn Americans who plan on visiting the country to be wary of terrorism and crimes.
“Many violent crimes take place in Mexico. They include homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, sexual assault, and robbery. There is a risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity in Mexico,” the advisory said.
Overall, Mexico is categorized with a “Level 2—Exercise Increased Caution” designation for travelers.
“The U.S. government has limited ability to help in many parts of Mexico, a large country in which conditions can vary widely from state to state and even within a state. U.S. government employees may not travel to certain high-risk areas, which may be within states that include low-risk areas,” the department said.
The travel restrictions on U.S. employees prohibit them from traveling between cities in the dark, waving down taxis on the street, driving between border cities and the interior of Mexico, and traveling alone, especially in remote areas.
Due to security risks, Americans visiting Mexico must follow the same restrictions as applied to U.S. government employees, the advisory said.
The State Department also published maps showing various restricted areas in Mexico.
Some states in the country are classified under “Level 4-Do Not Travel,” such as Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas. States designated as “Level 3-Reconsider Travel” are Baja California, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, and Sonora.
The department warned Americans that emergency services will be unavailable or limited in rural or remote regions. When met with a road checkpoint, visitors must comply, the advisory said, warning that “fleeing or ignoring instructions can lead to you being hurt or killed.”
There have been multiple cases of tourists being killed in Mexico. In April, a Canadian tourist was killed in the Teotihuacan archaeological zone after a gunman opened fire on tourists. Back in 2024, an American couple was shot dead in the state of Michoacán while traveling in a pickup.
According to the Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2025, there are “extremely high rates” of violent crime in Mexico.
“Security analysts estimate that around two-thirds of homicides are committed by organized crime. Two-thirds of homicides in 2023 were committed with firearms,” the report said.
The group also warned about the risk of arbitrary detention in Mexico.
“People accused of crimes often face extended periods of pre-trial detention. Approximately 37 percent of incarcerated people in 2023 were not convicted of any crime, and more than 20 percent of those in pre-trial detention had been there for more than two years,” it said.
World Cup Travel
The State Department’s travel advisory update comes as Mexico is set to host the FIFA World Cup 2026 games beginning this month, together with the United States and Canada.
In Mexico, the games will be played across three locations—five in Mexico City, four in Guadalajara, and four in Monterrey.
The U.S. Embassy and consulates in Mexico have issued guidance for Americans who wish to visit the country for the games.
“Book your transportation, accommodation, and tickets well in advance. Expect big crowds, heavy traffic, and longer travel times,” the embassy said.
“You can find game tickets on the official FIFA website. For your protection, FIFA runs an Exchange Marketplace, the only authorized way to purchase FIFA World Cup 2026 tickets on the secondary market in Mexico. The U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Mexico do not sell FIFA World Cup 2026 tickets.”
In an April 23 post, the embassy said that Americans planning to travel by land to Mexico for the World Cup should review the latest State Department travel advisory, assess information for each state along their planned route, and understand the risks they may face.
While navigation apps may show the desired route, they only display the most direct driving route and fail to account for the State Department’s advice on unsafe areas.
“Do not bring weapons or ammunition into Mexico. It is a serious crime, and you could face severe penalties, including years in prison. Permits to own or carry a gun in the United States are not valid in Mexico. Do a thorough check before leaving home,” the embassy said.
“Search your belongings and clothing pockets before travel if you regularly use items prohibited in Mexico. Bringing in banned items can result in serious penalties, even if accidental.”
Trump Blasts ‘Fake’ Reports Of Iran Talks Freeze As Rubio Insists To Congress Tehran Ready To Negotiate Nuclear Curbs
Summary:
Trump insists reports that Iran & US have not been talking for days is ‘fake news’; Rubio also tells Congress talks are ongoing, despite fresh Iranian denials, and even claims the nuclear file is part of it.
Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks, with Trump saying he expects a broader Iran deal “over the next week”.
But Fars denies this Tuesday: “exchange of messages between Iran & the US has been stopped for at least a few days” on MOU.
In Lebanon, “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight,” reports BBC, with more dead & wounded on both sides.
Trump: It’s ‘Fake News’ That Iran & US Stopped Speaking Days Ago
President Trump in a fresh Truth Social post has again insisted that Washington and Tehran are talking again. “The conversations between us have been going on continuously… where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, ‘It’s time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal.'”
Throughout the morning Secretary of State Marco Rubio was fielding questions on Capitol Hill. He too insisted that talks are ongoing, despite a Tuesday Iranian denial. He claimed the regime is ‘fragmented’ and because of this, back-and-forth messaging is extremely slow-going. “Iranian people would make a deal tomorrow if it were up to them,” Rubio said. “The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are a bit more immune to pressures.”
He also generally acknowledged that Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and then said this justified the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in turn. There was also this interesting exchange when he echoed Trump’s line that the war is actually ‘over’ at this point…
— You keep telling us how we’re winning this war — Senator
— Well, the war IS OVER now — Rubio
— The war IS NOT OVER. We still find ourselves spending billions of dollars a week on war — Senator pic.twitter.com/WuofatTvoQ
A potential new nuclear framework regarding Iran was also a central topic to Tuesday’s Congressional testimony:
Marco Rubio:
Iran would be like North Korea, but worse, if they got nuclear weapons.
They would destroy the State of Israel, and you wouldn’t be able to do anything about it because they have a nuclear weapon. pic.twitter.com/5TDGPNBY1W
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Iran has agreed to discuss previously off-limits aspects of its nuclear program, raising hopes that ongoing negotiations could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader diplomatic breakthrough.
Speaking at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the State Department’s budget request, Rubio said: “We are in talks… There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week, that for the first time, certainly in my memory, they have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear program.”
He said the U.S. hopes such negotiations could lead to a broader understanding that would include the reopening of the strategic waterway.
“We’re hopeful that something like that could happen, in which the straits would reopen, we would enter into a period of negotiations on very specific topics, delineated negotiations, in the hope of reaching an outcome that’s acceptable to us and something they would be able to do as well,” he said.
The above was spoken with a few too many caveats… “which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week...”
Rubio in the hot seat over Iran war:
.@SecRubio shuts down @SenBooker: “No one’s ‘begging’ for anything here. The Iranians might be begging — because their economy is losing hundreds of millions of dollars a day.”
“I don’t know where you’re getting this perception that Iran is stronger. Iran has no navy left.… pic.twitter.com/XHVerZeo8D
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 2, 2026
Iran Denies Progress, Halt in Talks Still in Effect
State media has belatedly responded to Trump’s Monday claim that talks between the US and Iran are back on. Trump has even said Tuesday that he expects an agreement for an extended ceasefire to take place “over the next week” – along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“An informed source says that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US has been stopped for at least a few days for what is called the initial memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington,” Fars reports. So this is Iran in effect saying ‘not so fast’ – as it seeks to ‘hold the cards’ and maintain some leverage. Trump has not indicated a willingness to resume bombing the Islamic Republic, but his patience has seemed to be wearing thin over the last several days, as the White House is boxed in to only choosing among several ‘bad options’ in the wake of launching a war of choice 95 days ago.
Oil spikes on the negative news from Tehran, extends:
And more confirmation via newswires:
An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last communication with Washington concerned Lebanon and drew international attention, despite President Trump stating negotiations are advancing rapidly.
Latest on the Lebanon front:
“American sources for AI Hadath: Proposal for a 60-day plan during which Israel withdraws gradually from southern Lebanon”: AI Hadath reports.
“Negotiations propose the deployment of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon after Israel’s withdrawal.”
“Lebanon seeks to resolve Hezbollah’s weapons file politically, but after Israel’s complete withdrawal.”
Lebanon Fighting Persists Amid Nominal Ceasefire
Various regional and international reports have documented serious ongoing fighting in Lebanon, despite President Trump the day prior having declared that the shooting will cease and that Hezbollah and Israel were forging a limited ceasefire. Trump had said of both sides that “they agreed that all shooting will stop” – after Iran announcing it had suspended peace talks with the US over Israeli military action in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did affirm he would adhere to the agreement, and reports say that planned new airstrikes on Beirut were called off, but he also warned the attacks on the capital would go ahead “if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians” – and that forces in the south would continue operating.
BBC has freshly written that “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight.” The same report details:
Hezbollah said its fighters had targeted Israeli tanks in the southern Lebanese towns of Haddatha and Bayada with missiles and shells. The Israeli military said it had intercepted two projectiles that had been fired from Lebanon in the early hours of Tuesday. No injuries have been reported.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Israeli strikes on several southern areas and said a “very violent” explosion from a large-scale demolition rocked the town of Debbine.
Tuesday has witnessed some ongoing attacks on south Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli troop positions, wounding some. According to some of the latest from Al Jazeera:
Israeli forces have carried out multiple air raids on the city of Nabatieh, one of the largest in southern Lebanon, our colleagues on the ground report. The city, a strategic hub for Hezbollah, has been encircled by Israeli forces in recent days as troops continue pushing north.
Israeli attacks were also reported across the wider Nabatieh district as Israel deepens its occupation of surrounding areas. Drones hit the towns of Kafr Sir and Aabba, while a strike targeted the road leading to Houmine al-Fawqa. The outskirts of Yahmour al-Shaqif were also hit.
There’s also been a lot of explosions in the southern city of Tyre, with Israeli jets active in the airspace above on Tuesday. And rescuers have recovered six bodies from another town, with Lebanese civil defense agency having said in a statement: “Since yesterday evening and continuing until this morning … personnel have been carrying out search and rescue operations in a residential building that was targeted in the town of Marwaniyah – Sidon district.”
Hezbollah’s fiber-optic drone attacks have at the same time not ceased: “Two Israeli soldiers have been wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon, the military says, describing their injuries as minor,” Al Jazeera reports Tuesday. This is after “Two other Israeli soldiers were killed over the weekend, also in drone attacks, bringing to 26 the number of soldiers killed since fighting escalated three months ago. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed.”
Impact of Trump’s ‘Steamrolling’ Netanyahu in Monday Call
President Trump’s angry dressing down of Netanyahu may have had very limited effect, it appears. To review, per Axios during a Monday call Trump was reportedly heard cussing at the Israeli leader and essentially ‘steamrolled’ him – angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel’s military not attack Beirut.
Trump is said to have told Netanyahu “you’re fucking crazy’” while demanding Lebanon truce: “I’m saving your ass,” he also reportedly said. Iran early Monday said it halted talks with Washington because of Israel’s escalation in Lebanon.
There’s been some reaction from Iran to the Axios report, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi having remarked, “In this regard, the US president’s claim of having dissuaded Netanyahu from launching a major attack on Beirut is more than a sign of Washington’s peace-seeking, it’s confirmation of America’s direct role in managing the Zionist regime’s aggressions.”
How many times have they sold and resold this same story about Biden and now Trump being secretly VERY VERY mad at Netanyahu https://t.co/uGpSULbhhM
The Iranian official continued to offer Tehran’s vew: “If the decision to attack the capital of an independent state can be changed with a single phone call the main question is: why did months of ceasefire violations, aggression against Lebanon, the displacement of its people, and threats to this country’s sovereignty – backed by Western political and military support – continue unabated?” he remarked.
Mark Levin rages over White House leaks of Trump-Netanyahu call…
Mark R. Levin, a close ally of both U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to confirm the veracity of the report earlier by Axios on today’s heated call between Trump and Netanyahu regarding peace negations with Iran as well as… pic.twitter.com/46qmYBJsJZ
Trump Returns to Optimism: Agreement ‘Over the Next Week’
But Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks. While there’s hasn’t been full confirmation from Tehran’s side, Trump has declared the talks as back on:
US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it’s not simple for both sides, but they’re getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
The very same network points on Tuesday morning:
Israeli and Hezbollah forces continued their attacks on Tuesday despite President Donald Trump’s claim that the warring sides had “stopped shooting each other” after his intervention to prevent escalation on Monday.
Lebanon’s state-run news agency, NNA, reported three Israeli strikes in separate areas in southern Lebanon. One person was killed, NNA reported. ABC News has contacted the Israel Defense Forces to request comment.
So, once again Trump touting the likelihood of a deal to reopen Hormuz by next week seems extremely wishful and ambitious, to say the least. And we’ve heard all this before, and been here many times over the past 95 days of war.
Tech advocacy group blames visa programs for enabling corporate tribalism.
A terminated software engineer is accusing Facebook parent company Meta of allowing Chinese migrants to take over entire departments while American employees face systematic exclusion and layoffs, Neil Munro of Breitbart News reported.
Jeremy Bernier, who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2012, lost his software engineering job at the company and has gone public with allegations of widespread discrimination. “At Meta, 90% of my coworkers were Chinese, and non-Chinese were routinely excluded, disadvantaged, and targeted for layoffs,” Bernier said. He continued that “6 out of the 7 layoffs I observed targeted non-Chinese despite non-Chinese being the vast minority. Certain org[anizations] like ads and MRS [Meta Recommendation Systems for prioritizing Facebook posts] are notorious for being Chinese dominated.”
The former employee shared his account through multiple social media posts. “On Wednesdays and Fridays I’d often be the only non-Chinese person on my team in the office, and they’d all get lunch together without inviting me,” Bernier recounted.
Meta was easily the most toxic company I’ve worked for. There’s a reason the Chinese call it “Squid Game”. Others refer to it as “Hunger Games” or “Lord of the Flies”. I think they’re all accurate.
The company culture is basically every man/woman for themselves. The performance…
He expressed frustration at the broader pattern he witnessed. “I think Americans would be outraged if they knew that their own citizens were getting marginalized and laid off at their own companies, while Chinese promote themselves up, conquer entire orgs, and reap millions [in pay and bonuses],” Bernier said. “Americans are practically non-existent in the most coveted, high paying tech jobs in the world at American companies in America.”
Kevin Lynn, who founded the advocacy organization U.S. TechWorkers, provided context for why corporations permit such arrangements. “Tribalism is a [C-Suite] tool that tamps down potential [internal executive] competitors because it changes incentives. If you’re either leading a tribe or you’re part of a tribe, you know you’re secure. Your position isn’t merit-based – it’s based on your race, your ethnicity, who you’re friends with, family, that kind of thing.”
According to Lynn, this dynamic stifles creativity and progress. “Innovation, inventiveness, novel ideas take a backseat to tribalism,” he explained, noting that “When 40 percent or more of your coworkers are from another country, from another culture, and prefer to speak another language, there’s not going to be any trust, any ability to bond to build something [innovative].”
The Trump administration has taken aim at workforce visa programs that channel foreign nationals into American corporations. Vice President JD Vance and other officials have criticized these initiatives for displacing domestic workers, per a report by Breitbart. Facebook previously paid a $14 million settlement in 2021 following extensive documentation of bias against American job candidates, as Breitbart previously reported.
Bernier offered nuance in his criticism. “Just to be clear, most Chinese are very kind so don’t take this as an attack,” he stated. However, he described the broader workplace atmosphere as brutal. “Meta was easily the most toxic company I’ve worked for. There’s a reason the Chinese call it ‘Squid Game’. Others refer to it as ‘Hunger Games’ or ‘Lord of the Flies’. I think they’re all accurate.”
Meta offered no response to Bernier’s claims.
Jose Nino is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino.
‘Crypto Spring’: StanChart Sees Ethereum Outperforming As Mt. Gox Moves $739M BTC From Cold Wallets
“Over the past week, we acquired 26,497 ETH,”Bitmine Immersion Technologies Chair, Tom Lee, said in a statement on Monday.
“In our view, ETH prices are not reflecting the strengthening of Ethereum fundamentals, but then again, this is not surprising given we are in the early stages of crypto spring.”
As CoinTelegraph reports,Bitmine is the largest Ether treasury company with 5.4 million ETH worth more than $10.5 billion.
Lee told CNBC on Monday that there is disappointment in crypto at the moment because it hasn’t moved while other sectors like software are rallying, but argued that it “always happens at the end of crypto winter.”
“As AI systems evolve, we’re now talking about using commerce and operating websites, you need decentralized identity and verification, and that’s really what crypto does,” he said.
“We know Wall Street wants to go toward tokenization; it’s a vast improvement in efficiency of how money actually moves, and it’s an innovation. That only happens on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other smart contracts. The future isn’t changed.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has tumbled to two-month lows, dramatically diverging from traditional equity markets’ recent surge…
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that some analysts have noted that Bitcoin is the only major asset in contraction right now, and the divergence is notable.
“It shows Bitcoin is trading more like a high-beta risk asset tied to macro sentiment rather than an independent hedge,” he added.
“This gap highlights current weakness, but it also sets up potential for stronger relative performance once macro conditions improve. I view it as a temporary phase in the cycle, not a permanent shift.”
Analytics platform Santiment said on Monday that “the gap between traditional equities and crypto has become increasingly difficult for traders to ignore.”
However, Santiment said that this pattern won’t last forever, and “mainstream influencers” discussing stock dominance over crypto is often a good sign that the crowd is leaning too far into the “equity FOMO and crypto FUD.” Markets generally move opposite to the majority of traders’ expectations, it added.
This most recent decline in bitcoin comes after Michael Saylor’s Strategy actually sold some of its holdings (admittedly a de minimus amount) and perhaps even more ominously, as CoinTelegraph reports, defunct Japanese crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved roughly $739 million worth of Bitcoin from its cold wallets early Tuesday, its first onchain movement in over two months, according to Arkham Intelligence data.
Blockchain data shows the exchange transferred 10,306 Bitcoin (BTC), worth approximately $730.8 million, from its cold wallet to an unmarked address at 4:47 am UTC.
The transferred Bitcoin is currently marked as “unspent” by Arkham. The exchange also made a separate transfer of 116.3 BTC, worth around $8.25 million, to its hot wallet at the same time, which is marked as “spent.”
The transferred Bitcoin being marked “unspent” means the funds are sitting in the new address and have not yet been sent anywhere further. On the other hand, “spent” means those funds have already been moved on again to another address.
The large movement has raised questions about whether creditor distributions are imminent, which could weigh on markets, as creditors who have waited over a decade to recover their funds may choose to sell once they receive their Bitcoin.
Bringing all of this together, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick sees opportunity in buying Ethereum against Bitcoin here, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before ETH catches up to improving internal metrics.
Internal metrics for Ethereum (ETH) continue to improve – transaction numbers and total value locked (measured in ETH terms) both remain close to all-time highs.
However, the ETH price continues to underperform in both absolute and relative terms – ETH-USD has fallen 57% from its August 2025 high to around USD 2,100, while ETH-BTC is down 37% over the same period.
Describing Amazon during the 2001 dot-com bust, Jeff Bezos said, “While the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was going the right way”.
We think the same applies to the current ETH price.
Similar to the Amazon example, we see significant scope for the ETH price to catch back up to internal metrics.
Ethereum is poised to benefit as traditional finance (TradFi) equivalents migrate to digital assets.
We project that stablecoin market cap will increase 6x from current levels by end-2028, and that the market cap of tokenised, non-stablecoin real-world assets (RWAs) will multiply 50x over the same period. Ethereum dominates both of these segments, with 50-65% of each underlying market being on Ethereum. These segments now account for more than half of the value locked on Ethereum.
As such, Kendrick reaffirms his ETH forecasts of USD 4,000 for end-2026 and USD 40,000 for end-2030. This would take ETH-BTC back to the 2021 highs around 0.08.
And Kendrick notes that yesterday saw the beginning of ETH outperformance relative to BTC.
The market reaction to MSTR’s sale of 32 BTC (a ridiculously small amount for MSTR to sell, given it still owns 843,706 BTC) was telling.
Specifically, on days where the BTC price falls, yesterday was one of the largest ETH-BTC topside moves of the past few years (there have been just 23 days since the start of 2024 more than yesterday).
The StanChart analyst highlights the larger moves in this chart:
Figure – ETH-BTC price moves on BTC down days (that are bigger than yesterday)
Further, MSTR’s selling (whilst small) highlights the different business models of the BTC DATs from the ETH DATs.
Specifically, because ETH has a 3% staking yield there is zero need for the ETH DATs to ever sell ETH (differently to the BTC DATs).
As such I would expect the mNAVs of the main ETH DATs to go back above that of MSTR (and a higher mNAV makes these businesses more sustainable).
I highlight the mNAV of BMNR and SBET here:
Figure – mNAV of BMNR and SBET v MSTR
Days like yesterday form important turning points for ETH-BTC.
Kendrick sees that cross back at 0.040 by year-end (from 0.028 today), even if (as is likely) MSTR this week buys a large multiple of the 32 BTC it sold last week.
In Nantucket, there is an interesting conflict between churches after the Nantucket Unitarian Universalists (NUU) canceled its traditional celebration. In a letter from the church and the Rev. Erin Splaine of the Second Congregational Meeting House Society, residents were told the traditional reading of the Declaration of Independence would be canceled to better focus on the “on-going process within the congregation to better understand our own whiteness.”
Across the country, July 4th celebrations are being canceled, and protests are planned for the nation’s 250th anniversary. MS NOW anchor Ali Velshi declared this week, “I feel a deep unease about the celebrations to which I am invited to mark the 250th anniversary of our so-called democracy.” The comment mirrors a recent poll showing that 85% of Democrats describe the U.S. in negative terms, and only 10% said they view it positively.
For 25 years, the historic Nantucket Unitarian Meeting House has hosted a public reading of the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights.
The letter announcing the cancellation from Splaine and the NUU Nantucket church is full of the usual virtue-signaling jingoism that has become common on the left:
“Our cancelling the 4th of July celebration this year reflects … an on-going process within the congregation to better understand our own whiteness.
…For those of us who are white the experience of the Rights and Privileges conferred by the Declaration of Independence, The Bill of Rights, and the Constitution of the United States have, for centuries, been tragically, often violently, and unequally applied to fellow citizens who are not white.”
This type of pandering and posturing has become the norm today. In a time when the American flag is denounced as a divisive and “triggering” symbol, a refusal to celebrate our Independence is yet another way of proving one’s bona fides to the perpetually enraged.
Splaine and the church stressed that she would not “engage” with critics on social media because “Social media is not the place for important, tender conversations.”
For some of us who believe that the Declaration of Independence embodies natural rights that ultimately prevailed in a more perfect union, the letter is maddening.
As I discuss in Rage and the Republic, the continuation of slavery was recognized at the time as a fundamental betrayal of those values. However, we created a system that would ultimately reject slavery and then later segregation. It was indeed a stain on our history and a sin of our founders to continue slavery. Yet, despite those imperfections, we rallied behind the founding values that define us as a people.
Thomas Paine, who (like other founding figures) was vehemently against slavery, still celebrated the founding of a new nation and a new people: “We have it in our power to begin the world over again . . . The birth-day of a new world is at hand.”
John Adams represented Massachusetts, including Nantucket, at the Continental Congress and fought to end slavery, but still understood that they had created a country based on freedoms that would ultimately prevail for everyone. He wrote his wife Abigail to predict that Independence Day would be:
“celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the Day of Deliverance by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires and illuminations from end of this continent to the other from this time forward forever more.”
Rather than Adams, Massachusetts now has figures like Rev. Splaine who focus not on the natural rights that bind us to those ongoing conflicts that divide us. This is a holiday that allows us to take one day of the year to celebrate our shared values. In an age of rage, it is a respite from the anger and hate that consumes so many in this country.
Yet, there remain some in Massachusetts who still understand what Adams was describing 250 years ago. Another church has stepped forward to take up the celebration. St. Paul’s Episcopal Church announced it would read the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. St. Paul’s Rev. Max Wolf declared, “We may not be there yet but we felt it was important to gather together and try to live up to the promises our country has made. Those documents are aspirational.”
Euro Area Inflation Tops 3.0% For First Time Since 2023, Cementing ECB Rate Hike
Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since September 2023, further cementing expectations for a rate hike when the ECB meets next week.
Consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago in May, and up from 3% the previous month, in line expectations. But core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, jumped more than anticipated to 2.5% (technically 2.55%), while the closely watched services gauge jumped to 3.5%, the highest since last November, and non-energy industrial goods inflation printing at 0.87%YoY.
Energy inflation increased to 10.9%YoY, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation fell to 1.97%YoY, notably below the weak 2.2%YoY Goldman was expecting.
“The acceleration of headline and core inflation in May cements the case for a 25 basis-point rate increase from the ECB next week. Those moves have been driven by services prices, which have probably been pushed up by pass-through from oil prices. That may be used by the hawks on the Governing Council to argue broad-based inflation requires a follow-up move in September” said Bloomberg economist David Powell.
Incorporating the May flash release into the Euro area inflation path, but also accounting for the potential Easter-related nature of the outsized move in services which should not be fully persistent, Goldman’s medium-term path continues to show core inflation at a weak 2.5%yoy in 2026, peaking at 2.7%yoy in 2027Q2 before gradually declining to 2.0%yoy in 2028Q4, above the ECB staff March projections. As for headline inflation, Goldman expects it to peak at 3.4%YoY in Q4, using the bank’s latest baseline path for gas and oil prices.
The latest hot inflation print has cemented the ECB’s first rate hike since September 2023 on June 11, with officials appearing to conclude that they can no longer wait to respond to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. ECB rate hike odds are now at 98% on Polymarket. They’re worried chiefly about workers demanding steep pay rises and firms boosting selling prices, viewing such consequences as probably now inevitable as the war drags on.
Most policymakers, however, remain cautious on the path beyond June according to Bloomberg, as growth in the region’s 21-nation economy also takes a hit. Business activity shrank in May at the quickest pace since 2023.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, viewed as the most hawkish Governing Council member, suggested Monday that it’s too early to specify how many rate increases may be needed. Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus has said a second move after June “is more likely than not,” though it’s unclear when.
“It’s quite important to react in a timely manner to this emerging inflationary environment so we can prevent a possible acceleration of inflation and the inflationary spiral, prevent it at its very beginning with the least possible impact on the economy,” Simkus said Tuesday in Vilnius.
His Finnish counterpart Olli Rehn described inflation expectations as still anchored so far, but said action is needed this month to keep prices under control. “While inflation risks have increased, a rate increase in June would be an insurance one, but not due to entrenched inflationary pressures,” he said in a speech.
Today’s CPI print should not have been a major surprise: data last week showed inflation gathering pace in three of the bloc’s biggest member states, and remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target in all of them. Propelled by the war-induced surge in energy costs, May readings for France, Italy and Spain quickened to 2.8%, 3.3% and 3.6%, while the headline number for Germany moderated to 2.7%.
Voters in six states will go to the polls today for a series of key races.
The biggest item of the night will be the litany of races in California, the nation’s largest state. Others will be held in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
Here are the most important races to watch.
California Governor
The race to replace outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom is one of the most-watched in the nation.
California’s gubernatorial elections are designed to be nonpartisan. With about six candidates polling with at least 5 percent support, only the top two vote-getters will be on the general gubernatorial election ballot in November, even if both are of the same party.
In the final weeks leading into the primary, the election underwent a total shake-up when front-runner Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) left the race – and Congress – following multiple allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault. Swalwell has denied the allegations.
Currently, the Democratic front-runners are former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra and billionaire Tom Steyer. The two are polling close, although Becerra retains a slight advantage.
The main Republican candidates in the race are Steve Hilton, a British American TV show host and conservative commentator, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Polling leaves it unclear whether Hilton or Steyer is favored for second place.
Los Angeles Mayoral Primary
Residents of Los Angeles will also vote in the nonpartisan mayoral primary.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is facing off against 10 other contenders. She is expected to win the top spot in the primary.
Meanwhile, the top Democratic contender for the second-place spot – member of the Los Angeles City Council Nithya Raman – is seeking to hold off a challenge from former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, running as a Republican, and make it to the general election.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
In California’s 22nd Congressional District, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) will face off in a nonpartisan primary with state Rep. Jasmeet Bains and Randy Villegas, both Democrats.
Valadao is expected to win a place in the general election, although his final opponent will be decided by the outcome on June 2.
Polling in the district is sparse. A single poll conducted at the beginning of May by Data for Progress, a left-leaning pollster, showed Valadao with 44 percent support, Villegas with 25 percent, and Bains with 21 percent.
California’s 48th Congressional District
In California’s 48th Congressional District, a flurry of candidates have put their names into the ring.
Republican Jim Desmond leads in polls in the nonpartisan election, with fellow Republican Kevin O’Neil coming in second in some polls. Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar are the Democratic front-runners.
The seat was one of five redrawn to favor Democrats last year – but that advantage only holds if a Democrat wins the nonpartisan primary.
California’s 11th Congressional District
In California’s 11th Congressional District, a slate of Democrats is competing to replace outgoing Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
Most polls show a lead for candidate Scott Wiener, a Democrat, while Pelosi has endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. Chan has come in second in some polls, and Wiener enters the primary as the clear front-runner.
The two Republicans in the running – when they have made it into the polls at all – have pulled less than 5 percent support.
Iowa Senate
Although Iowa has long been a lock for Republicans, it is among Democrats’ targets this year, as there are indications that the party could flip Senate seats previously considered safe. This year, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) will not be seeking reelection, leaving the seat open.
Polls indicate that Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is favored for the Republican nomination over her rival, state Sen. Jim Carlin.
Iowa’s gubernatorial race is open after Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, announced that she would not seek reelection in 2026.
Several Republicans are contending for the nomination to replace her. The polls show that candidates Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), Zach Lahn, and Adam Steen are leading in that race. On the Democratic side, only state Auditor Rob Sand is running.
A general election poll conducted in April by Echelon Insights, a Republican-aligned pollster, found that Sand had 51 percent support against Feenstra, who was polling at 39 percent.
Montana Senate
In Montana, the last-minute exit of Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) from the race left Republican challengers little opportunity to register against former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who registered for the GOP nomination just as Daines exited the race.
On the Democratic side, no polls have been conducted, leaving it unclear who is in the lead for the nomination.
As recently as 2024, the state was represented by Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat. Some general election polls have shown 44 percent support for a generic Democrat.
New Mexico Governor
In New Mexico, Democrat and former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Debra Haaland is highly favored to win the Democratic nomination in the blue-leaning state, which some Republican strategists had eyed as a potential target in 2024.
On the Republican side, Gregg Hull narrowly leads Doug Turner in polls for the nomination.
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District
One of the two top targets for Democrats in New Jersey is the seat of Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.).
Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is favored to win the nomination, leading in most polls. Her closest rival is Brian Varela.
New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District
In New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) is retiring, leaving open a safely Democratic seat in a district where the primary essentially is the general election.
The race has exposed ideological rifts in the Democratic Party.
Leading the progressive side in the race is Dr. Adam Hamawy, a Princeton trauma surgeon and Army veteran with endorsements from progressive heavyweights such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
The main other contenders for the Democratic nomination include East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen, state Rep. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson.
