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Public Transport Hell: Foreigners Commit 53% Of Sexual Crimes On German Trains

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Public Transport Hell: Foreigners Commit 53% Of Sexual Crimes On German Trains

Authored by – Remix News Staff – via Remix News,

German Federal Police recorded 98,026 crimes at train stations and on trains in the first half of 2026, with foreign nationals substantially overrepresented among identified suspects in violent, property and sexual offenses relative to their share of the population. In the crime of sexual offenses, foreigners represented 53 percent of suspects.

The figures, provided by the Interior Ministry in response to a parliamentary inquiry from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) group, exclude high-volume offenses such as fare evasion. They include roughly 14,000 violent crimes, 1,104 sexual offenses, about 24,000 property crimes, approximately 16,000 cases of property damage, nearly 4,500 drug offenses, and 796 weapons offenses, according to German newspaper Berliner Zeitung.

For sexual offenses, 53 percent of known suspects were non-German, with Syrians, Poles and Afghans again ranking highest.

Among suspects of known nationality in violent crimes, 5,596 were German citizens and 4,631 were non-German, meaning foreign nationals accounted for about 45 percent of identified suspects. The most frequent non-German nationalities were Syrian (581), Polish (575), Ukrainian (439) and Afghan (351).

In property crimes, non-Germans made up 56.4 percent of known suspects, ,948 versus 5,283 Germans, led by Poles, Ukrainians and Romanians.

Foreign nationals make up roughly 15 percent of Germany’s population of about 83 million, according to federal statistics. The share of non-German suspects in these categories is therefore several times higher than their population proportion.

Similar overrepresentation has appeared in prior years’ data for stations and trains, including elevated rates in knife-related and sexual offenses.

In 44 cases of people being pushed onto the tracks, 16 of the 25 suspects with known nationality were foreign nationals. Knife attacks totaled 141 at stations and 54 on trains. Attacks on Federal Police officers and railway staff also featured notable shares of non-German suspects among those identified.

The stations with the highest overall crime counts included Cologne Central Station (2,664), Hamburg (2,662) and Frankfurt (2,226). For violent crimes, Leipzig recorded the most (397), followed by Hanover and Frankfurt.

AfD lawmaker Martin Hess called the numbers a “security policy declaration of bankruptcy” by the government, highlighting the prominence of Syrian suspects in violence and sexual offenses and arguing that stations and trains were being turned into areas of fear.

It is important to note that for all German suspects, there is no information available out their migration background. In many cases, it has been discovered through the analysis of first names of these suspects that at least half of them have foreign names, such as in the category of gang rape.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 06:30

“Everyone Has Blown Up”: London Macro Traders Carried-Out As French Carry Trade Implodes (Again)

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“Everyone Has Blown Up”: London Macro Traders Carried-Out As French Carry Trade Implodes (Again)

For the better part of three years, the hottest seat in London’s multi-manager world was a European rates book: lever up French OATs in repo, clip the carry, collect the seven-figure payout. This month, the French bond market sent the bill.

According to a must-read report from eFinancialCareers’ Sarah Butcher, London’s macro hedge funds are quietly emptying out their EGB desks. Funds aren’t talking about performance, but headhunters and bank traders who have been keeping score say the count of ejected European rates PMs and traders has climbed from the mid-70s a few weeks ago to close to 100 people. One senior trader at a liquidity provider summed it up in four words: “Everyone has blown up… they are all out”

In other words, the most crowded trade in European fixed income just found out what happens when the collateral is the problem.

And the bleeding hasn’t stopped. This morning Bloomberg flashed that the French bond risk gauge is nearing 160bps, a fresh 15-year high, while French 10Y yields hit 5% for the first time since July 2002.

Below we walk through what blew up, why it blew up (twice), what Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the rest of the Street make of it, and why the market’s attention is already drifting to the next domino: Italy.

The Trade: Borrow Against France, Pocket The Difference

The mechanics were simple enough to fit on a Post-it. Funds bought French government bonds, financed them in the repo market using those same OATs as collateral, and pocketed the gap between the bond’s yield and the repo cost. Lever it up enough times and a few basis points of carry becomes a career. Per eFC, as French yields rose amid political chaos, OATs sold off and the whole highly leveraged structure was turned upside down.

A bank trader watching from the sidelines was less charitable:

“These people weren’t even real portfolio managers,” claims one senior trader, watching from the sidelines in a London bank.

“They were just using EGBs as a carry asset. Buying bonds, sitting on the carry and getting a percentage cut. It was fun for a while. You had a lot of PMs who were long France and long Italy, but with inflation coming in and rates high, it wasn’t going to last.”

Another PM in the sector offered a more philosophical take: “every bubble gets its moment.”

The wider version of the trade, as Bloomberg reported on Oct 2, was the OAT asset-swap: funds including Taula Capital and Balyasny had built positions to harvest the spread between French yields and interest-rate swaps. Those were lucrative right up until the budget blowup of Oct 1, when the trades flipped from winners to liabilities and everyone hit the exit at once. RBC BlueBay’s Kaspar Hense told Bloomberg what that looked like from the inside:

“Most typical hedge-fund strategies are in risk reduction mode. There have also been stop-loss levels triggered, partly on the steepener trades and now on long France trades.” (emphasis ours)
— Kaspar Hense, RBC BlueBay Asset Management, via Bloomberg

Fidelity International’s fixed income CIO Marion Le Morhedec went further, estimating that hedge fund activity could explain roughly half of the recent moves in the French-German spread, pointing to particularly heavy Eurex activity. Turns out the “liquidity providers” were also the liquidity takers.

Regular readers will recall that we called this one in real time on the very first day of the month:

…which was followed hours later by “Debt Crisis Back? European Bond Markets Crash, CDS Explode Amid France Budget Panic Contagion” (Oct 1). By the next day, the OAT-Bund spread hit 154bps, the widest since 2011, and the deleveraging was in full swing.

Same Trade, Same Crowd, Same Exit Door

The most damning detail in the eFC piece: according to the liquidity-provider trader, many of the PMs who blew up this month had already blown up in March, on the same positions. That was when the Iran war and the Hormuz shock triggered the first great European rates unwind, and when, per Bloomberg, multi-strats from Millennium to Balyasny to ExodusPoint gave back some or all of their year-to-date gains as crowded trades unwound.

Seven months apart, the same book got carried out twice. Diversification at its finest.

“They’ve blown up twice on the same trades.”

Another trader observes that a lot of funds moved into the European fixed income space in the belief that it was easy money:

“The whole European carry system is now being questioned.”

You can see both episodes in Goldman’s own long-OAT/short-Bund rolling futures basket, which the bank’s Systematic Trading Strategies desk circulated to clients: a steady grind higher for three years, a wobble in March, and then a near-vertical collapse that has wiped out roughly five years of gains as the basket fell from a February peak of ~104.3 to ~99.2.

Goldman’s STS desk described the October contagion mechanism in that same note (available to pro subs here):

OATs have come roaring back into market focus over the last month. Where an unwind of popular rates positions following the latest ECB meeting (mostly steepeners), seemed to spread to wider carry trades in the rates space among a bid for volatility. A weak starting position for France with regards to debt and fiscal background and uncertainty into next year’s election as well as challenging budget process didn’t help. (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs STS, Tim Huiszoon, Oct 12

Translation: the steepener crowd got stopped out first, then the losses bled into every other levered carry position on the same risk books. Not a fundamental repricing so much as a margin call with a French accent.

Allianz Trade agrees, noting in an Oct 9 report that speculative shorts, hedge-fund asset-swap unwinds and thin liquidity created a negative loop, with market depth more than 50% below normal:

“The speed reflects a positioning shock, not a pure repricing of fundamentals. Long-term investors are sitting out ahead of the elections… Fragmentation is far from 2012 or 2020 levels, but the ingredients are in place.” (emphasis ours)
— Allianz Trade, “Toasted, not burnt”, Oct 9

Note the second sentence: the real money that would normally buy the dip is sitting on its hands until the election. Which leaves… nobody.

The Plumbing Problem Nobody Wanted To Talk About

It’s not just about P&L. Hedge funds have stepped in as the marginal provider of liquidity in European sovereigns precisely as central banks, pensions and banks stepped back. Per Bank of France data cited by Reuters, French government debt accounts for roughly €100 billion of the €250 billion in euro-area sovereign bonds pledged as repo collateral. In other words, France is the euro repo market.

So far the repo market itself has held up, but the risk is obvious: a further ratings cut narrows the pool of institutions able (or willing) to take OATs as collateral, which raises funding costs, which forces more selling. Commerzbank flagged exactly this back in September after Fitch’s downgrade:

“…once a second agency downgrades to single-A, OAT repos may cheapen visibly, similar to BTPs, where more than half of bonds already trade above the depo rate.” (emphasis ours)
— Commerzbank, via MNI, Sep 16

With Moody’s reviewing France on Friday, that is not exactly a theoretical concern. And as we noted when the sell-side spent a day insisting the OAT rout was “just positioning,” the contagion had already jumped to the banks, with the selloff reactivating Europe’s “doom loop” (Oct 7). Goldman’s European financials desk is still hiding under the desk:

“We are staying in risk off mode on banks (topics remains Euro sovereign crisis fear + Rates + Competition + Agentic, ie peak ROTE)… Appetite for French banks is very low given how long it will take to have some clarity.” (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs EU Financials specialist sales, Oct 20

“Overshot Fundamentals”… Says Goldman (Two Weeks Ago)

To be fair to Goldman, the bank has been leaning against the panic. Its strategists argued earlier this month that the OAT selloff appeared to have overshot fundamentals, amplified by positioning, though they conceded France is cheap relative to peers but lacks a catalyst. GS’s STS desk went further on Oct 12, flagging GIR’s expectation that the spread stabilizes at tighter levels and pitching a 1-year principal-protected option on OATs vs Bunds as a reversal trade with the 10Y spread at ~135bps.

The market had other plans. After weekend riots across France (nearly 2,400 arrests), the spread widened another 8bps to ~145bps on Monday, per Goldman’s Daily Monitor, which ran this as its chart of the day: the OAT-Bund spread (inverted) dragging the euro down with it.

Goldman’s FX desk confirmed the hedge funds were already heading for the exits:

“EUR option volumes – which have been an key indicator for broader portfolio hedges – have also decreased and are more than 30% off the highs. Certainly, a lot of hedges have been put on already and broad de-risking across popular positions was a hallmark of last week’s activity.” (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs FX desk, Oct 19

Bloomberg’s Vassilis Karamanis reads the same options market more darkly: the premium for longer-dated euro downside now exceeds short-dated, suggesting the euro’s weakness “reflects more than a positioning adjustment.” So much for “just positioning.”

By Monday’s close, French 10Y yields had posted their highest close since 2002 (Oct 20), and on Tuesday the spread hit a 156bps peak:

And this morning the milestone everyone was waiting for finally printed: per Bloomberg, French 10Y yields hit 5% for the first time since July 2002, with the OAT-Bund spread out another 5bps to 158bps as Brent traded above $110. So much for stabilizing at tighter levels.

Goldman’s own economists, meanwhile, aren’t buying the government’s numbers either. In Tuesday’s European Daily, Alexandre Stott writes:

“Recent protests over school underfunding and cost-of-living pressures have been among the largest since the pension reform strikes of 2019 and 2023 and the ‘yellow vests’ movement of 2018… we remain sceptical that the government will meet its deficit target of 5.0% of GDP next year… Our poll-based model therefore continues to see Le Pen as the clear favourite to become President next year.” (emphasis ours)
— Goldman Sachs, European Daily: France—Budget Adoption Likely Later This Year, Oct 20

Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter, whose note we published on Oct 11, is just as blunt about the arithmetic, and about the cavalry:

At wider than 150bps, the 30yr OAT-Bund spread surpassed the 130bp mark reached in the euro area debt crisis a decade ago… Debt stabilization would require a primary surplus of roughly 2% of GDP, a turnaround of about 5 percentage points. That shift would be larger than the adjustment required in Italy in the early 2010s… We think the bar for direct ECB intervention is very high, but France may not be the last test. (emphasis ours)
— Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, Sunday Start

Put differently: the ECB is not coming to rescue anyone’s carry book, and certainly not before Paris finds a fiscal squeeze bigger than the one Rome needed in 2011. Good luck with that during riots. Bill Blain, for his part, awarded a “No Sh*t Sherlock” prize to anyone who spotted European yields spiking after the riots, warning in Tuesday’s Morning Porridge that the unrest could “metastasise into a potential bond crisis unless the ECB can swiftly demonstrate it is able, willing and stands ready to intervene.”

Where Do 100 Ejected Rates Traders Go?

The career fallout is where the eFC report gets really fun. Some will drift back to the banks, where one headhunter said dealers need them to manage ECB exposure and bond books. The catch, per a bank trader: these PMs were pulling in $1 million-plus, a number that at a bank you only see as a desk head. Many are also tied up in non-competes, and some are still collecting guarantees and in no rush to find work. Good news for the departed PMs; allocators may see it differently.

Not everyone was pushed: one source estimated roughly 10% left voluntarily, some to raise their own funds, because allocators are struggling to find people both willing and able to take risk. Which is one way of describing a market where everyone who took risk just got carried out.

More ominous is the verdict from the trading floors: one trader told eFC that funds piled into European fixed income believing it was easy money, and that the whole European carry system is now being questioned. A bank trader called it systemic. And per the headhunter, the big fear now is that Italian BTP spreads go the way of OATs, a risk Morgan Stanley also flags, noting that wider OAT spreads are already putting pressure on BTPs.

Bottom Line

Goldman’s bet is that this was a positioning flush: the levered carry crowd got shaken out, the forced selling is largely done, and spreads should drift back in. Maybe. But consider what has happened since the “overshoot” call: riots, a 5% 10Y, a spread nearing 160bps, a Moody’s review on Friday, and a presidential race where Le Pen polls at 34%-38% in the first round. The forced sellers may be gone, but the natural buyers never came back, and the marginal bid in OATs for the past three years was a levered London pod that is now on gardening leave.

And this was never just about politics. Since the Hormuz crisis began, France has underperformed every major bond market, Italy included:

Which is why we lean toward the skeptics: this isn’t the end of a positioning unwind, it’s the beginning of a regime where France trades like the periphery, and where Italy, with the same crowd long it on the same leverage, is next in line. When the people who spent three years harvesting European carry are now warning that the asset class may never look the same, it’s probably worth listening. Expect the ECB monetization chorus to get a lot louder. We’ll check back after Friday’s Moody’s decision.

Much more in the full Goldman GS European Daily “France – Budget Adoption Likely Later This Year” note, both available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 05:45

European Regimes Renew Their Attacks On Free Speech

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European Regimes Renew Their Attacks On Free Speech

Authored by Ryan McMaken via Mises Institute,

In recent weeks, German and French politicians have denounced free speech, and especially the concept of “freedom of speech” as long envisioned in the libertarian tradition of natural rights. French President Emmanuel Macron on September 29 stated that”The so-called American ‘free speech’ today, which some people have promoted, is the opposite of free speech.” Macron compared speaking freely as comparable to walking down the street assaulting other people.

A week earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared,”Don’t anyone come to me with free speech!” He asserted we must “still be able to protect citizens from false information.”

Both were speaking on issues related to online speech through social media and similar platforms. Both see a grave danger to the ruling class posed by the ability of unvetted or anonymous users to post opinions freely.

In both cases, these attacks on freedom have been in the context of European regimes’ repeated efforts to impose new regulations on social media platforms to limit speech.

This has been going on for several years. For example, back in February, Macron stated that “free speech is pure bullshit.”

In Europe, the anonymity issue is no minor affair. In Germany, there are literal speech police who will arrest ordinary citizens merely for saying things online or reposting memes. It’s easy to see why anonymity could be an essential tool in posting ideas and facts the regime doesn’t like.

A European regime insisting on abolishing online anonymity is essentially tantamount to announcing that these regimes want the ability to make more arrests for wrongspeech. This is a growing problem across Europe, and a 2025 study concluded that British police were making 30 arrests per day for non-violent “offensive online messages.” Under British law, one can be prosecuted for hurting someone else’s feelings. That’s not how British apologists describe it, of course, but that is the essential reality.

Euphemisms for Censorship

Whether we’re talking about France, the UK, or Germany – all places where the despotic enemies of free expression have seemingly free rein – the regimes’ forces do not, of course, come right out and say that they support censorship.

They couch their censorship in the soft language of Leftwing ideology. The claim is that speech must be regulated in order to combat “hate speech” or to reflect the “common good” or to combat “disinformation.”

To wit, in recent years, European politicians have insisted that speech be made to fit into “a common framework” – to use Macron’s phrasing – and to be subject to some standard determining what is “false information.”

But here is the rub: Who is to determine what falls within this common framework? Who is to determine what constitutes “false information”? It is the ruling oligarchy and its political allies, of course, that will determine if some proposed fact or idea is to be allowed to be spoken freely.

The ruling elites will decide if some sentiment or phrase is to be defined as “hate speech” and thus will be punished by state police and regime jailers. The ruling elites will determine what is “science,” and therefore what constitutes “disinformation.” This was on full display in the United States during the Covid Panic, when the government bureaucrat Anthony Fauci effectively declared “I am the science.”

It is through these state-created and reasonable-sounding “exceptions” to free speech that the regime smuggles in its despotism.

For example, this has been the case for many years with defamation laws. Those who defend legal sanctions for “defamation” essentially advocate for government censorship to combat hurt feelings. Moreover, for centuries, governments have used defamation laws as a means of punishing criticism of the regime. Laws against “seditious libel” – employed by absolutist kings of old – have always essentially been laws against free speech.

An Assault on Truth Itself

The individuals who are directly punished will not be the only victims of this censorship. Truth and critical thinking themselves will be the victims as the regime’s subjects will no longer be allowed to fully and publicly examine the veracity of claims made by the ruling elites. It means that “truth” will be whatever the regime says it is.

This problem of using free speech to hide and distort reality itself was well described more than 100 years ago by the radical free-market libertarian Vilfredo Pareto. Pareto was no naive democrat who thought that freedom could necessarily be protected by elections or written constitutions. But he did understand that freedom of speech is at the very foundation of a free society, regardless of the type of regime or whatever other freedoms might be protected in writing.

Even as Pareto was facing the rise of violent radical socialists in Italy – and thoroughly doubted the ability of the liberal state to deal with it – he never wavered on the key importance of free speech. That is, Pareto remained a dogmatic hardliner on free speech, and in this was like nearly all libertarians before him, from the anarcho-capitalist Molinari to the American Revolutionaries.

Not surprisingly, then, Pareto concludes there were no “mitigating factors” that could legitimately limit speech in the name of some common good. Writing in 1916 he stated:

[B]efore a theory can be considered true, it is virtually indispensable that there be perfect freedom to impugn it. Any limitation, even indirect and however remote, imposed on anyone choosing to contradict it is enough to cast suspicion upon it. Hence freedom to express one’s thought, even counter to the opinion of the majority or of all, even when it offends the sentiments of the few or of the many, even when it is generally reputed absurd or criminal, always proves favourable to the discovery of objective truth (accord of theory with fact). …

Pareto goes on to insist that there can be no exceptions, even for the sake of protecting “truths” long held to be precious. Not even those assertions said to be essential to humanitarianism can be considered protected from the scrutiny of free speech. He continues:

Nor can an exception be made for humanitarian dogmas, nor for the dogmas of the sex religion so dear to Senator Berenger and other geniuses of the same magnitude. Let us keep the point strictly before us: There is no scientific liberty unless everything is open to doubt – even Euclid’s geometry and three-dimensional space. It is ridiculous to say that one is disposed to grant liberty for “truth” but not liberty for “error”; for the point at issue is none other than to discover where the “truth” lies and where the “error”; and it cannot be settled if “error” cannot be defended by every possible reason that can be advanced in its favour. Only after such reasons have been validly refuted is judgment of error affirmed – pending further investigation. Many people fail to understand that, because in judging of truth or error they substitute a criterion of sentiment for the logico-experimental criterion.

Clearly, the fact that free speech is now so under siege in Europe is simply the latest evidence of how far out of favor old historical liberalism has become in Europe. Every year, Europe more enthusiastically embraces its worst tendencies in which human rights are repeatedly jettisoned to protect the “rights” of those who rule over the continent. Yet, the antipathy toward free speech also demonstrates the weakness of the European regimes and their political programs. Were the German, French, and British states not so hampered by political division, economic decline, and public dissatisfaction, they would not be so fearful.

Americans have no yet traveled so far down this road. But the foundation is already being built. Republicans support laws deeming all criticism of a certain foreign government to be “anti-semitism” and therefore “hate speech.” Covid laid bare the American Left’s enthusiasm for anti-speech tyranny. All that is necessary for the First Amendment to be wiped away is for a handful of federal judges to agree with the enemies of freedom. There is no guarantee.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 05:00

French Counterterror Police Arrest ‘Ultra-Left’ Activist Over Limoges City Hall Fire

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French Counterterror Police Arrest ‘Ultra-Left’ Activist Over Limoges City Hall Fire

French police on Tuesday arrested a 34-year-old man suspected of taking part in the October 17 arson of Limoges city hall, three days after the riots that gutted the 1883 building. The elite RAID unit’s Bordeaux branch took him at 6:15 a.m. in a small, isolated house at Val d’Issoire, in the Haute-Vienne department, according to the Limoges prosecutor’s office. The prosecutor called him a “person suspected in the fire.” He is presumed innocent and has not been charged.

The burnt city hall of the central city of Limoges, France, on October 18, 2026. CLOTAIRE ACHI / REUTERS

A source close to the case told Franceinfo he is an “ultra-left activist” already on the “fiché S” security watchlist. Some outlets first reported his age as 40; Franceinfo corrected it to 34. The prosecutor said investigators identified him through “painstaking” cross-checking of images and videos. ICI, the public radio network, reports that he is from the neighboring Creuse department and is suspected of earlier sabotage of TGV overhead lines and construction sites. His record was clean until an appeal court convicted him of violence against a police officer at an October 2024 protest in Guéret, a ruling he has taken to the Court of Cassation, so it is not final.

The Justice Ministry says he was not alone. Spokesman Sacha Straub-Kahn told ICI that “we are certain, from the images, that this person did not act alone,” calling it a “manifestly concerted action” and putting the crowd in front of city hall at 500 to 700 people with “fairly substantial pyrotechnic means.” No accomplice has been named or arrested. The only source for the ultra-left label is an unnamed one, and neither the prosecutor nor the ministry has said what role the suspect is accused of playing.

Custody, which began Tuesday, can run to 96 hours because the case falls under the special regime for organized crime. The investigation is run jointly by Haute-Vienne police and the national counterterrorism sub-directorate (SDAT). The national anti-terrorist prosecutor’s office has not taken the case, but is following it. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said Monday that anti-terror prosecutors would soon decide whether to treat the fire as a suspected terror attack.

The fire itself began around 6 p.m. Saturday, when masked protesters entered the town hall and set it alight, according to the prefecture. Prefect Maurice Barate said the fire was set deliberately. Overnight the roof and belfry collapsed, and only the modern rear section was saved. Nineteen people were taken into custody that day, and four police officers were seriously hurt. Prosecutors opened an inquiry into destruction of property by dangerous means by an organized group.

Mayor Guillaume Guérin says the state left his police to face the mob. Guérin, of the center-right Republicans, told Sud Radio that national police ran out of crowd-dispersal grenades at about 3:30 p.m. and fell back, and that he saw about 700 infiltrators among a march of roughly 5,000 (a figure the outlet did not verify). He told Public Sénat that 400 rioters faced only 30 municipal police officers, and that the state is “in part responsible” for what happened. He has asked for a special rebuilding plan like the one for Notre-Dame, full state funding of what insurance does not cover, and has said he may resign if he does not get it.

Reacting to the arrest, Guérin said he expects the courts to be “up to the task” and wants the suspect jailed, while noting the presumption of innocence, because “he destroyed the house of all Limousins.” He has secured a riot-police company for next Saturday, saying he needs national police and CRS officers “to maintain order.” Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to visit Limoges on Friday.

Democrats retreat from house races they hoped to flip

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 04:15

UK Landlords Offered More Than Double Council Rents To House Channel Migrants

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UK Landlords Offered More Than Double Council Rents To House Channel Migrants

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

British landlords are being offered thousands more each month to house small-boat arrivals than local councils pay to shelter vulnerable British families, a Daily Mail investigation has revealed.

The deals come from Clearsprings Ready Homes, one of three Home Office contractors operating under multi-billion-pound taxpayer-funded contracts.

In one south London case, a landlord was offered £4,500 a month for a three-bedroom flat he currently rents to Southwark Council for £1,790. That is an extra £32,520 a year, plus bills, council tax and maintenance covered for three years.

The anonymous landlord told the Mail: “I already rent to Southwark Council, and they are able to offer significantly more than the local authority, which to me is bizarre. The council has a ceiling on what they are allowed to pay landlords like myself.”

He continued, “For a three-bed flat I get £1,790 from the local authority to house families, while I would rent it to Clearsprings for £4,500 per month. I didn’t go with them because it would have meant terminating my contract with Southwark Council and putting families at serious risk of homelessness. I am not prepared to do that. But many landlords just see it as an opportunity to earn more, and just go with them.”

Clearsprings is understood to be targeting properties already used for council tenants, students and vulnerable people, including those fleeing domestic abuse.

The firm, run by Graham King (estimated fortune £726 million), houses around 30,000 asylum seekers and reported £62.6 million profit on £1.4 billion turnover in the year to January 2025.

It is one of three contractors (alongside Serco and Mears) with contracts originally awarded under the Conservatives and running until 2029.

The National Audit Office has previously put expected Home Office spending on the main asylum contracts at £1.67 billion for 2024-25.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp called it “a day of shame for Labour” and said: “It is insane that illegal immigrants who have broken our laws, and some of whom go on to commit appalling crimes against women and girls, are being prioritised above law-abiding citizens who work hard and pay their taxes.”

“Over 85,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the Channel under this Labour Government yet only seven per cent of arrivals are removed. This has led to a huge increase in HMOs and flats being used to house them – with over 93,000 people now in asylum accommodation,” Philp further urged.

A Home Office spokesman claimed that the department pays a capped contractual rate and that “any amount above that is covered by the contractor and not taxpayers.”

Officials pointed to hotel closures and claimed savings of more than £1 billion on asylum support since the election, along with 80,000 removals.

Meanwhile, Border Security Commander Duncan Capps has warned that nearly 3,800 migrants are currently waiting in camps between Calais and Dunkirk – almost double the usual number of around 2,000.

Capps told MPs: “I think the French estimate at the moment is that there is almost 3,800 people between those two camps. Previously it was broadly about 2,000 between them.” He added that larger boats and higher occupancy mean “it is only a matter of time till we have a mass casualty event in the Channel.”

Crossings so far this year are down on last year’s total, but the backlog in northern France shows demand remains high. Migrants typically make multiple attempts; French intercepts do not lead to detention, so the same people can try again.

Since Labour took office in July 2024, more than 83,000 people have crossed in small boats – more than the roughly 83,000 personnel in the British Army.

Total small-boat arrivals since records began in 2018 now exceed the combined strength of the Army, Navy and RAF. Former Royal Navy officer Chris Parry has described the intake under Labour as the equivalent of “six-and-a-half divisions of fighting-age men.”

Arrivals have at times averaged one every minute during peak periods. The system processing them has been described by a Home Office decision-maker who assessed thousands of claims as fundamentally broken.

Speaking to The Times, the official known as J said: “At best 1 per cent of asylum seekers are genuine. There’s almost no aspect of the asylum system that isn’t either a massive fraud or just really dysfunctional. Nothing works as it should.”

Common patterns include package claims from the same nationalities using near-identical stories, staged photographs, and networks charging thousands of pounds to coach applicants to claim they are gay or face political persecution. BBC undercover work has documented advisers offering fabricated evidence for sexuality-based claims.

The housing pressure is not new. Earlier this year the government signalled that every area of the country should expect to take a share of arrivals as hotels are closed and people are dispersed into residential property.

Projections have suggested migrants could account for 40 per cent of new UK homes by 2030 under current trajectories.

Local residents have repeatedly protested when HMOs or former military sites are converted for this purpose.

The current Clearsprings offers simply accelerate the same displacement dynamic with higher guaranteed rents funded through the contractor model.

The pattern is consistent: record crossings, low removal rates, an asylum system described by its own officials as riddled with fraud, and now private contractors using the resulting demand to outbid councils for ordinary housing.

British families on the housing list, students, and people fleeing domestic abuse are being asked to compete against a taxpayer-backed premium for people who arrived illegally.

The contracts were set under previous governments; the volume and the political choice to keep the system running at this scale sit with the current one.

Without a sustained reduction in arrivals and a higher removal rate, the housing pressure and the cost will surely spiral out of control.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 03:30

“Mobilization Will Be Massive”: French Govt Plans To Send Soldiers To The Streets After Admitting Failures

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“Mobilization Will Be Massive”: French Govt Plans To Send Soldiers To The Streets After Admitting Failures

French soldiers will take over guard duty so that police and gendarmes can be moved onto the streets for Saturday’s expected protests, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez told parliament on Tuesday.

Nuñez said troops from Operation Sentinelle, the anti-terror deployment, would replace internal security forces mainly on static guarding duties. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the same day that Saturday’s mobilization of forces “will be massive,” Remix News reported, ahead of a major protest planned for October 24.

Sentinelle was launched in January 2015 and keeps about 10,000 soldiers across France to guard against terrorist attacks, usually at places of worship, schools, tourist sites, railway stations and airports. It also covered the Paris 2024 Olympics and Paralympics. Nuñez described a post-holding role for the troops in this case, not a crowd-control one.

The government now admits it failed to contain last Saturday’s riots. Lecornu acknowledged lapses in intelligence gathering, said police had been positioned too rigidly and said authorities chose not to cancel planned police leave, Reuters reported. He blamed far-left groups and framed the crisis as a choice “between violence and the Republic”; those groups say the government underestimated anger over living costs and declining public services. Nuñez told parliament: “I deeply regret what happened. I accept my share of responsibility.” He offered his resignation, and Macron rejected it.

About 60,000 police and gendarmes were on duty nationwide on Saturday, October 17, when roughly 500,000 people marched against the cost of living (authorities told Remix 550,000; organizers claimed over 800,000). Nuñez called that too few for the large crowds of rioters and looters on the edges of the marches. He said police had “lost control” in some cities and admitted a “lack of anticipation.” Riots and looting hit Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities, and in Limoges an arson attack brought down the roof and tower of the historic town hall.

The toll so far is large. Euronews counts more than 2,500 arrests and Remix more than 2,400 detained, while Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin put the number in custody at over 2,330, 70% of them adults. Almost 1,000 members of the security forces were injured. Alain Di Crescenzo, president of the chamber of commerce, said more than 2,000 shops were hit and put the damage at “hundreds of millions of euros.” On Monday Lecornu asked regional authorities for “localised and partial curfews” and said nearly 200 Paris police investigators would comb footage to identify looters. Parliament is also setting up a commission of inquiry into the causes of the unrest. As we reported, 8 p.m. curfews followed in northern cities.

Nuñez is also considering banning demonstrations that have not been declared and could lead to public disorder. Declared marches could be caught too, he said, but only if organizers or their stewards give authorities reason to think things will get out of hand. For marches judged low-risk, routes should steer clear of public buildings and high streets, and intelligence services are to step up estimates of turnout, especially of the most radical participants. He said security forces need more “responsiveness and mobility” against “scattered” and “extremely mobile” groups, and told parliament: “We will be there.”

The playbook has a precedent. In March 2019, for the 19th Saturday of the yellow vest protests, Sentinelle troops guarded sensitive sites so police could focus on order, and demonstrations were banned on the Champs-Élysées and in central districts of Bordeaux, Toulouse, Marseille, Nice and Rouen. Police made 31 arrests and issued 15 fines for entering banned areas, out of 2,322 street checks in Paris, NBC News reported. Macron brushed off opposition criticism of the army’s involvement: “Those trying to scare people, or to scare themselves, are wrong.”

Ministers of that period drew a line at confrontation. Armed forces minister Florence Parly said it was “hors de question” to put soldiers face to face with protesters, and said Sentinelle would relieve police and gendarmes of counter-terrorism tasks. Nuñez’s description of static duties fits that model, though the government has not said where in the country the troops will be posted.

The unrest is also reaching the bond market. We reported this week that French 10-year yields hit 24-year highs near 5%, with the spread over German Bunds close to 160 basis points and Moody’s due to review France’s Aa3 rating, which carries a negative outlook. Earlier, we described the country as entering a “point of no return” as the riots spread.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 02:45

NATO To Increase Black Sea Presence Following Drone Attacks On Shipping

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NATO To Increase Black Sea Presence Following Drone Attacks On Shipping

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

NATO will send additional military equipment and aircraft to the Black Sea, following a series of drone attacks on shipping vessels in the key waterway.

Ships wait in the Black Sea in Constanta, Romania, on Oct. 15, 2026. Andreea Campeanu/Reuters

Allison Hart, NATO’s principal spokeswoman, said in an Oct. 20 post on X that the assets will support surveillance, reconnaissance, and forensic activities.

The decision came after NATO ambassadors met at the North Atlantic Council, the defense alliance’s main decision-making body, to discuss Black Sea security.

“We will continue to stand united and ensure that we are ready and able to address any threat and to keep our one billion people safe,” Hart said.

NATO’s military spokesman, U.S. Army Col. Martin L. O’Donnell, said that in addition to sending the radar systems, drones, and patrol aircraft, allies will send or have sent intelligence agents and teams to conduct forensic examinations of explosives used against shipping vessels.

NATO has not attributed the attacks to any country.

The added presence comes in response to several Black Sea incidents in which drones struck cargo vessels.

Earlier this month, a number of cargo ships were hit off the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea in the space of one week.

On Oct. 13, the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity was sunk, and the Chelsea 3, sailing under a Maltese flag, registered in Odesa, and Ukrainian-owned, was also struck.

Drones struck two other cargo ships in the same waters on Oct. 6.

Bulgaria said that Russia was likely behind recent incidents off its waters. Russia’s ambassador to Bulgaria, Eleonora Mitrofanova, said at the time that she had no information from the Russian Ministry of Defense about attacks on commercial vessels.

Tankers Struck Near Romanian Coast

On Oct. 15, drones struck two chemical tankers near Romania’s Black Sea coast, setting them both ablaze.

The vessels were anchored near the Sulina Canal, which links the Danube River to the Black Sea. It is a major export route for Ukraine.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan called the situation in the waters “serious.”

“Commercial ships are being attacked and sunk. Seafarers killed, injured, and missing, very close to the shores of Romania and Bulgaria,” Dan said. “Lives, global trade, and critical infrastructure are at stake.”

Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the European Affairs Department at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Russian newspaper Izvestia on Oct. 20 that against the backdrop of NATO’s increased reconnaissance activities in the Black Sea, “the risk of incidents, including unintentional ones, is indeed increasing.”

Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine border the Black Sea, and it is a vital shipping route.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is also among the world’s largest producers of grain and seed products – both use the Black Sea to export their goods. Consequently, the waterway has become a target for both sides in the ongoing war.

In recent months, Russian forces struck Ukrainian targets on the Black Sea, including the ports of Chornomorsk and Odesa.

Ukraine, for its part, has been targeting Russian grain and farming infrastructure in the waters.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 02:00

The Turd-Eaters: France Gives Us A Lesson On The Pillager Class

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The Turd-Eaters: France Gives Us A Lesson On The Pillager Class

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Over the years I have written frequently about what I call the “Pillager Class” and the “Producer Class” in an attempt to explore the reasons why certain people, groups and cultures always seem to turn to looting and destruction rather than building anything of value of their own.

It is a threat the west has been dealing with for thousands of years: We engineer and create and plan for the future, and instead of doing the same, the pillager class decides it’s easier to take what we have. Sometimes they are subtle like a parasite, and sometimes they’re not so subtle, like a swarm of locusts.

There are numerous theories on why this happens. Some think it stems from genetics, others from low IQ, others think it’s purely a cultural phenomenon, and some people argue that it’s a mere reactionary response to poverty. I suspect it’s a combination of all these things. At bottom though, it seems that certain groups are simply born with the pillager instinct; a subset of the populace perpetually stuck in scavenger limbo.

A good comparison to understand this is the classic “lottery winner” dilemma. Data suggests that around 70% of all lottery winners lose every dime they won in 5 years or less. It doesn’t matter if it’s thousands of dollars or millions of dollars; they can’t seem to keep their hands on wealth.

They go from cash windfall to bankruptcy and financial failure so quickly, winning the lottery is often treated like a curse rather than good luck. This happens because they are incapable of planning for tomorrow. Their brains are ostensibly stunted, and they can only think in terms of the present moment. They are doomed to live in poverty because they are incapable of growing beyond their most base desires.

The pillager class is very similar. You can take them out of the global ghettos, bring them to your home and give them every opportunity imaginable to improve their circumstances, and yet, they will always choose thievery and barbarism instead. The only thing that might change is the complexity of their crimes.

Somali daycare and medical fraud in the US is a prime example. Fake college degrees and the H-1B theft of American jobs by Indian scammers is another. The Muslim “Silent Jihad” – a strategy of invasion through false integration, is also a pressing threat.

These people aren’t thankful for the opportunities handed to them. They believe they are entitled. In every case they argue that it is Americans who should be grateful for the migrants on our soil, for it is they who “built our country” (Third world immigration to the US was highly restricted until the mid-1960s, so this claim is nonsense). They don’t care that their invasions will eventually kill the golden goose. Some of them WANT to kill the golden goose.

In France right now, migrant rioters say they are looting and burning because they want more. More access to education. A better cost of living standard. More influence in government. All of this is a lie; what they really want is an excuse to steal whatever isn’t bolted down and then tear apart the rest. But it’s interesting that their moral argument for ransacking Paris is that they are owed more freebies in a country that already took them in. This tells us all we need to know about them.

Beyond the average pillager’s tendency to covet what the west has, there is an element of conspiracy which feeds the multicultural influx. In my article “Pillagers vs Producers: There’s Only Two Ways To Save The Western World”, I look specifically at the alliance between third world cultures and Marxist activism. This alliance is the source of the radioactive sludge that is giving the west cancer. It is this partnership that fuels the rise of migrant incursions into the western world.

Those of us trying to fight against the organized demolition of our society are certainly not the first to see the danger coming. I recently came across a book which I can only call prophetic – A book which describes almost everything happening in the world today, and it was published back in 1973.

“The Camp Of The Saints”, by French author Jean Raspail, has been banned in many libraries around the world while the writer was accused of “racism” and “xenophobia” for his fictional depiction of a migrant onslaught in Europe, starting in France and leading to the fall of the west. The story is set in the near future and reads like a timeline of current events.

The root premise of the The Camp Of The Saints is that a demonic partnership exists between the liberal left and third world pillagers. The nihilistic progressives, reveling in atheism, Marxism and globalism, are represented by the character of “Ballan”, an arrogant and godless leftist philosopher very similar to the French Marxist, Jean Paul Sartre.

Ballan travels to the squalor of India as part of a “humanitarian mission” to send tens-of-thousands of migrant children to be adopted in Europe. The group is eventually accused of having nefarious motives to use pity and guilt to undermine the west. Ballan essentially admits to the plan, and screams at his accusers that borders, nations and cultures are “rubbish” that must be destroyed.

In his fury, Ballan marches onto the streets of Calcutta and stumbles across an Indian man referred to as the “Turd-Eater”; an absolutely pathetic specimen of a human being. The Turd Eater is part of the “untouchable class” in India and he works as a “dung roller”; a person who collects human feces from the streets and rolls the manure into bricks to be used as fuel for fires. He is also known to eat the bricks in times of starvation (all of this comes from very real practices in the recent history of India, unfortunately).

The Turd Eater is a large man charged with the care of his deformed son, who he often carries on his back. The child cannot speak and only makes incomprehensible noises. (Until the past decade, consanguineous marriages or inbred marriages in India represented around 23% of all marriages in the country. That rate has now supposedly fallen to 11% but remains an ongoing issue in rural areas).

Ballan sees the encounter as a miracle, a profound moment. He reasons that this man and his child have experienced the pinnacle of suffering and thus they possess the ultimate knowledge of humanity (This is a common delusion among leftists – the notion that the “oppressed classes” posses a superior knowledge of life and should thus be treated as precious, or perhaps even worshiped).

The Turd Eater dreams of going to the west, and Ballan seeks to help him. In the process, Ballan turns the Turd Eater into a demagogue, a leader of the migrant masses. The philosopher whispers dark rhetoric into the man’s ear, which the man then repeats, mixing eastern and Christian religious concepts into a theosophical gibberish about the East coming to save the Christian west. His deformed child becomes a messianic symbol of the movement, an “inspiration” for mass immigration.

Again, this is brilliantly prophetic. Today, the political left constantly feeds talking points to third worlders, teaching them to appeal to our Christian and Constitutional principles. How often in the US have we heard migrant representatives talk about the First Amendment, freedom of religion, America as a “melting pot”, and the conservative “Christian duty” to help those in need?

These are all carefully scripted manipulations designed to use our own ideals to destroy us. As I have covered in past articles, these claims are based on false and twisted versions of Biblical teachings and misrepresentations of the intentions of the Founding Fathers. At no point ever has western heritage called us to accept responsibility for the pillager class.

Ultimately, the character of Ballan falls victim to his own creation. A massive migrant army sets out under the command of the Turd Eater to ride an armada of flotillas to France, and Ballan seeks to join them. Instead, they beat him and drown him in the dirty and disgusting Ganges river simply because he is white.

Meanwhile, leftist politicians and activists in Europe welcome the migrant invasion with open arms in the name of empathy and humanitarianism. This leads to more flotillas and caravans flooding into the west. Eventually, westerners are culturally replaced as victims of genocide. The people who do try to fight back are accused of racism and their efforts are undermined by lack of strong leadership.

The leftists treat the destruction of the west as justified and they cheer the replacement, only to be replaced themselves. The story is about the ideological self-sabotage of the west through liberalism. It is a warning from 50 years ago that is coming true today.

The one thing that The Camp Of The Saints misses is the reality of an underlying and malicious agenda – The globalist influence, the NGO funding, the UN backing, all the elements of power that are maneuvering and helping the third world replacement to happen. They aren’t creating the pillager class, it already exists and has always existed. Rather, the globalists have identified the pillager class as a useful weapon and they are aiming the barbarian horde at the US and Europe to fulfill the Marxist vision of a borderless, homogenized socialist empire.

This is a righteous act according to progressives, because of the West’s colonial past. In their minds, westerners ARE the pillagers. As Marxist Jean Paul Sartre once said:

“But to become natives altogether, our soil must be occupied by a formerly colonized people and we must starve of hunger…”

“You will be convinced that it would be better for you to be a native at the uttermost depths of his misery than to be a former settler.”

The demonization of western settlement relies on an ignorance of history and a romanticized image of “indigenous peoples.” The west brought technology, infrastructure and an alternative to the savagery of the ancient world. There are many disturbing accounts of these archaic cultures written by explorers, missionaries and native witnesses. They read like the most grotesque horror stories you can imagine.

Brutal slavery, torture, mass murder, child sacrifice, rivers of blood, the stench of death permeating the air, all of it at the hands of more powerful tribes subjugating smaller tribes. The old world was a pagan hell on Earth. The average leftist growing up in the unprecedented security and sanity of the modern west cannot comprehend the nightmares that existed before settlers arrived on the shores of Africa, Asia and the Americas.

When we exited some of these places in the name of “social justice”, we left behind stunning infrastructure. Billions upon billions of dollars in advanced systems and industry, clean water, waste management, healthcare and transportation.

The natives ended up dismantling all of it out of greed or they let it rot out of laziness. Many countries reverted economically and technologically. Even nations like India which still maintain deep trade and political ties to the west are giant dung heaps otherwise, with mountains of garbage and feces in the streets. They simply cannot run their civilizations properly, and so, they all want to travel to the west.

It is time to put an end to the western self-loathing and nihilism championed by the political left. We need to accept the fact that our culture is superior in design, or at least it was until the progressives got hold of it. And, ultimately, we need to adopt a philosophy of selectivity, merit and a refusal to compromise. If this means deporting third worlders in large numbers, so be it. If it means booting out militant leftists and sending them to an island somewhere, so be it.

They declared war on us first. There is no rule that says we have to let them win. As Jean Raspial notes in The Camp Of The Saints:

“In the strange war that was coming, victory would go to those who loved themselves the most…”

The novel describes the death of the west as suicide by empathy; a condemnation of the liberal tendency to view the dregs of the world as our moral responsibility. But it is not the responsibility of the west to save the world. If we did save it, the only practical method would be colonialism.

Bringing the west to the third world is the only way to pull them out of the gutter. Bringing the third world to the west is a sure way to drag us all into the gutter. After a decade of invasion by the pillager classes into the US and Europe, after the recent infestation of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, after the riots and looting we are seeing in France this week, the terrible end result is predictable and undeniable.

The truth is, if the downfall of our civilization continues, it is only because we allowed it to happen.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2026 – 23:50

Israel Detains NY Congressional Nominee In West Bank Olive Grove, Sets Free After Learning Who He Is

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Israel Detains NY Congressional Nominee In West Bank Olive Grove, Sets Free After Learning Who He Is

Some candidates kiss babies two weeks before an election. Brad Lander picked olives in the West Bank.

Lander, the former New York City comptroller and the Democratic nominee in deep-blue NY-10, posted this at 6:29am ET on Wednesday:

Brad Lander speaks before being detained at the olive harvest. Video via The Guardian.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani chimed in, writing on X “Harvesting olives is not illegal. The occupation is,” adding “[O]ther New Yorkers remain detained, and they must be released immediately … The same Israeli government detaining them has committed a horrific genocide against Palestinians, killing more than 74,000 people over the last few years alone. “

In other words, a brief detention in a disputed olive grove has turned into an Israel-vs-New-York-City diplomatic spat, two weeks before the midterms and six days before Israel votes.

“Released Once The Matter Was Brought To Our Attention”

According to NPR, which had a team on the ground in Nahalin, Israeli forces declared a closed military zone around an olive grove near the settlement of Beitar Illit and detained Lander along with about 80 American and Israeli rabbis and activists. Two Israeli lawyers told NPR it was the largest mass detention of activists in the West Bank in at least a decade. The IDF’s explanation for letting only one of them go was refreshingly honest:

“Regarding reports of the detention of a congressional candidate, we note that he was released once the matter was brought to our attention.”

Lander put it his own way: he said he was released “with a ‘warning,’ apparently because of my public profile (I told them I wasn’t even a congressmember yet, just a nominee).” The rest of the group, from the Rabbis for Human Rights delegation, was still being held at a police station in Beitar Illit hours later, according to the Times of Israel.

About That Map…

Here is where it gets interesting. The IDF told CBS New York that “harvesting in this area requires a request to be submitted to the relevant authorities in advance,” and Israel Police said the group had entered an area near the settlement fence that needed approval. Lander called it “a bald-face lie.”

The Times of Israel’s US bureau chief then reported that a map handed out to Palestinian farmers by Israel’s own Civil Administration shows the spot where the group was detained did not require prior coordination. Once reporters started posting the map, the IDF’s new explanation was that the area isn’t marked because Palestinians had never asked to harvest there before. Very reassuring.

Jerusalem’s diplomats weren’t having any of it. Israel’s Foreign Ministry hit back a little before noon ET:

To be fair, the ministry has a point about the optics. Lander’s own posts framed the trip as an effort to shed light on the occupation, and a candidate who knows his district is safe has little to lose and plenty of cable hits to gain. The ministry’s claim that his team was told ahead of time that coordination was needed hasn’t been independently confirmed, but it hasn’t been denied either. And Mamdani’s “genocide” line is exactly the kind of thing that earned him bipartisan blowback over his Oct. 7 statement just two weeks ago.

Not all the criticism came from the left, though. Israeli MK Gilad Kariv warned (via the Times of Israel) that if someone doesn’t stop “this madness, it will cause enormous damage to relations with Jews of the United States – and entirely justifiably so.”

Who Harvested What

Lander’s camp says a future congressman was hauled off for helping a farmer pick his own olives. Israel says it was a planned stunt in a restricted zone. Our summary is less so: by detaining 80 people and releasing only the one with a press office, Israel handed Lander and Mamdani a bigger platform than any olive grove could, and its own map undercut the explanation. With Israelis voting Oct. 27, Americans voting Nov. 3, and dozens of rabbis still in custody when this was written, we’ll check back on whether the other detainees are deported, which would keep this story going right through both elections.

Then again, if harvesting headlines was the goal, it’s been a bumper crop.

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2026 – 23:25

Ukraine’s Anti-Graft Cops Raid The Central Bank… So Where’s The Gold?

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Ukraine’s Anti-Graft Cops Raid The Central Bank… So Where’s The Gold?

Ukraine’s wartime corruption saga, which so far has swept through the state nuclear monopoly, the president’s former chief of staff and the prosecutor general’s office, has now reached the one institution that was supposed to be above it all: the central bank.

On Wednesday morning, detectives from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), working with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), searched the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) headquarters in Kyiv and the home of what the bureau coyly called “one of its employees.” According to a law enforcement source cited by the Kyiv Independent, the premises searched belonged to Governor Andriy Pyshnyi himself, and MP Danylo Hetmantsev said as much publicly: the “employee” was the governor.

The NBU confirmed the searches and said it was operating as usual. By evening, Pyshnyi was on Facebook insisting that, per the court order, the criminal case concerns neither the central bank’s activities nor his duties as governor, and that the searches turned up no evidence of wrongdoing by him or any NBU staffer. The central bank also denied rumors that he had resigned. Which, as anyone who has followed Ukrainian politics knows, is usually what happens right before someone resigns, or is resigned. 

Follow The Sense Bank

So what are the detectives actually looking for? NABU hasn’t said, but lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak, who first publicized the raid, says it is tied to two cases: the Karpatnaftokhim petrochemical complex in western Ukraine, and the running of state-owned Sense Bank by outside individuals. Zhelezniak also called on Pyshnyi to step down.

Sense Bank is the thread worth pulling. The lender, formerly Alfa-Bank Ukraine and part of Mikhail Fridman’s empire, was nationalized after Russia invaded. It has since become a recurring character in the Energoatom kickback probe, the largest corruption case of Zelensky’s tenure. Prosecutors say a Hr 150 million ($3.4 million) bail payment for former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko was routed through Sense Bank with allegedly laundered money, and in August they charged Zelensky’s former deputy chief of staff Iryna Mudra, Sense Bank CEO Oleksiy Stupak and others over the scheme. The NBU, as supervisor, has been criticized for not stopping it.

The direct link to Pyshnyi: Sense Bank’s former supervisory board chairman told a parliamentary inquiry that Vasyl Veselyi, a figure in the leaked NABU “Mindich tapes,” was appointed to the bank on Pyshnyi’s recommendation. Pyshnyi denies making any such recommendation. In those same tapes, Veselyi and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman reportedly discussed influencing board appointments at the bank and talking to Zelensky’s then-chief of staff Andriy Yermak about it.

That last name matters, because Pyshnyi got the job in October 2022 as a Yermak ally, after his predecessor Kyrylo Shevchenko abruptly resigned and then said NABU had accused him in a Hr 206 million embezzlement case at a state lender. Pravda reported in August that Zelensky was already unhappy with Pyshnyi and that his dismissal had been discussed. So two of the last two NBU governors have now had anti-graft detectives at the door. Not a great hit rate for the institution that also happens to guard the nation’s gold reserves.

And as a bizarre coda, on the very same day Hungarian authorities detained György Matolcsy, Viktor Orbán’s longtime central bank governor, whose son is the subject of a separate probe into corruption at the Hungarian central bank. Central bankers across the region probably had a quiet dinner tonight.

Speaking Of Reserves… Where Is The Gold?

Which brings us to the question nobody in Kyiv was asked today. To be clear upfront: nothing reported so far ties the NBU probe to Ukraine’s reserves, and Pyshnyi says the case has nothing to do with the bank’s operations. What follows is speculation, labeled as such. But if the central bank’s supervisory function was compromised by people with access to the president’s office, it seems fair to ask what else was sitting within reach.

On paper, the answer is reassuring. Ukraine’s international reserves hit a record $57.7 billion as of Feb. 1 (unclear how much of that is US “donations”) and monetary gold made up 8.5% of them, up from 5.7% a year earlier, thanks largely to gold’s price surge rather than any buying spree. The World Gold Council puts Ukraine’s holdings at 27.37 tonnes, unchanged through the second quarter, worth roughly $4.9 billion as of January per CEIC data.

Holdings peaked at 42.6 tonnes in early 2014, fell to a nine-year low within months, and have only partly recovered since.

Long-time readers will recall that Ukraine’s gold has a habit of wandering off at moments of political upheaval. On March 10, 2014, days after Yanukovych fled, we flagged an entirely unsubstantiated report from pro-Russian outlet Iskra that the reserves had been loaded onto an unmarked plane at Boryspil and flown to the US, and asked whether the price of Ukraine’s “liberation” was the handover of its gold to the Fed.

The NBU denied it. Then in November 2014, then-Ukraine Central Bank chief Valeria Gontareva casually admitted on TV that gold was down to about $1 billion of reserves, which, on our math at the time, implied far less than that, and we wrote that Ukraine admits its gold is gone (Gontareva currently now faces Up to 12 Years in Prison and Confiscation of Property in Case Involving Collaboration with Russia).

Here is a transcript of the clip above:

  • 0:00 The NBU firmed the hryvnia by only 2 kopecks, to 15.75 per dollar. On the interbank market the dollar sold at 16.05 and the euro at about 20.
  • 0:14 The devaluation sent gold up 5% in a day. A gram of top-purity gold now costs 665 hryvnias, an all-time high, and the price has nearly doubled since January.
  • 0:38 Gold is disappearing from the NBU’s vaults and is only a tiny share of the reserves. Gontareva said so herself on Channel 5 (5 Kanal).
  • 0:49 Gontareva says “Actually, practically, if you want to know, physically there isn’t any. There’s a small amount of gold bars, but it’s literally, probably, up to 1%.”.
  • 1:00 She didn’t explain how it happened. Official NBU data show almost $1B of gold at the end of October, about 8% of reserves, or eight times what she says.
  • 1:20 Even by the official figures, holdings fell by more than a third in October alone. Gold prices are falling, so the NBU is selling into the drop and losing money.
  • 1:38 The gold was built up under former governor Serhiy Arbuzov, who decided in early 2011 to raise gold’s share of reserves.
  • 1:57 Arbuzov, in an archive clip, says: “Roughly 21 tonnes of gold. That’s several billion dollars… these are reserves that aren’t subject to the changes paper money goes through, so the value will only grow.”
  • 2:08 The bet made several hundred million dollars by late 2012, and the gold sat in a secure vault that journalists toured two years earlier.
  • 2:35 How the gold is now vanishing from the vaults is unclear.

A week later the central bank admitted the outflow and called it an “optimization of reserve structure,” which is probably the most central-banker phrase ever coined for “it’s gone.”

IMF data later showed holdings dropping to 23.6 tonnes in November 2014, a nine-year low, from over 42 tonnes at the start of the year. The official explanation was sales to prop up reserves, and by December lawmakers were turning on their own central bankers over it. Weeks later came the cherry on top: the NBU had been conned into buying painted lead bricks as gold, about $300,000 worth, allegedly with help from someone on the inside.

So where is the gold now? Probably in one of three places, and here’s where the speculation starts:

1. Where they say it is. The boring and most likely answer: the bulk sits in NBU vaults or, more plausibly given a war with missiles landing on Kyiv, in custody abroad. Wartime central banks routinely park bullion at the Bank of England, the New York Fed or the BIS, and the NBU has never published a bar list or a vault-by-vault breakdown. That opacity was a feature during the war. It looks a bit different on the day detectives are walking out of the governor’s office with (heavy) boxes.

2. On the road. Ukraine’s physical gold and cash do move, and we know this because one shipment got hijacked. In March, Hungary’s counterterrorism unit stopped two Oschadbank armored vans near Budapest carrying $40 million, €35 million and nine kilograms of gold from Vienna to Kyiv, with Orbán accusing Kyiv of bankrolling the Hungarian opposition. Hungary’s own tax authority later traced it to a documented Raiffeisen deal and closed the money-laundering case, and it is now Orbán, not Ukraine, facing a potential criminal case over the seizure. Still, it was a rare look at the logistics of state-owned precious metal moving across Europe in vans, and a reminder that gold, unlike a SWIFT transfer, actually has to be driven somewhere.

3. Pledged, swapped or lent. This is the one worth watching. Central banks under funding stress have a long history of quietly using gold as collateral, via swaps or leasing, while still reporting it as reserves. Nothing suggests the NBU has done this (or that it hasn’t). But if the institution’s governance was porous enough for outsiders to steer board seats at a state bank, independent confirmation that 27 tonnes are allocated, unencumbered and physically where they’re supposed to be would seem like cheap insurance. Maybe the IMF, which has a seat at every Ukrainian table these days, could ask.

A Run On Trust, Not On Gold

For now, the more immediate risk is institutional rather than metallic. The NBU’s independence is one of the few things Western lenders have consistently praised in Kyiv, and the IMF program and the EU’s Ukraine Facility both lean on it. A governor ousted under a corruption cloud, with the president’s office reportedly already wanting him gone, would hand critics of continued aid exactly the narrative they’ve been building since the Energoatom tapes leaked.

And if it turns out the case really does have nothing to do with the central bank, well, NABU just raided the head of the monetary authority of a country at war for a case unrelated to his job. Either way, someone in Kyiv is about to have a very uncomfortable meeting with the IMF mission.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2026 – 23:07