Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Now that Trump is on his way to the White House as the 47th president, it’s not too soon to start building a portfolio that will outperform the stock market in the early years of the new Trump administration.

This kind of active asset allocation requires close attention to prospective policy details and their possible impact on specific business models. Not all stocks will perform well under the new administration. Some will perform brilliantly.

Let’s first review the likely Trump policies and then consider their impact on certain stocks and sectors.

The Revival of the American System

Under the guidance of Trump advisors Robert Lighthizer (former U.S. Trade Representative) and Peter Navarro (former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy), Trump will pursue a twenty-first-century version of what was originally known as the American System.

The American System was invented in 1790 by Alexander Hamilton and supported by a succession of U.S. presidents and leading political figures including George Washington, Henry Clay, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, Calvin Coolidge, and Dwight Eisenhower.

There were opponents who favored agrarian interests over manufacturing interests, including early members of what later became the Democratic Party such as Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe. Yet, their financial failures, including the liquidation of the First Bank of the United States (an early central bank with limited powers) and difficulties in financing the War of 1812 led to the success of the mercantilist and manufacturing programs of the American System leaders.

The American System relied on the following policies:

• High tariffs to support manufacturing and high-paying jobs

• Infrastructure investment (public and private) to support productivity

• A strong army and navy to protect the U.S. but not to fight foreign wars

• A central bank with limited powers to provide liquidity to commerce

To the extent there was government spending, it was for productive projects such as canal and road building and later to support railroads. To the extent that early central banks existed, they were for secure lending to sound entities (including the U.S. government) and not for purposes such as printing money, fixing interest rates or “stimulus.” The entire program could be summarized as sound money, smart investment and a strong military in the service of high-paying American jobs.

The American System prevailed from 1790 to 1962 with occasional periods of agrarian ascendency and some disruptions such as the Civil War.

Beginning after World War I, the neo-liberal movement of Austrian economists and libertarians began to promote globalist policies of open borders, open capital accounts, and free trade.

Of course, free trade is a myth because of subsidies and non-tariff barriers. Comparative advantage is obsolete because the factors of production are highly mobile.

Taiwan had no comparative advantage in semiconductors in 1979, but today they dominate global production. They made that happen through a Taiwanese version of the American System.

In contrast, the neo-liberals were living an ideological fantasy in which globalism was to displace sovereignty. At a minimum, their goal was the encasement of sovereigns in a larger orb of multilateral institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, WTO and the United Nations.

Beginning with the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Trade Act of 1974, and successive rounds under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (today the WTO), the U.S. embraced the neo-liberal consensus including drastic tariff cuts. As jobs moved offshore to take advantage of cheap labor, capital followed as direct foreign investment.

The result was the hollowing-out of U.S. manufacturing, wage stagnation, slower growth, greater debt, and a succession of failed wars. The open border policy of Biden-Harris is consistent with neo-liberal views on the end of sovereignty but is a death knell for American jobs and social cohesion.

Trump, Lighthizer, Navarro, and others will return the United States to the pre-1962 glory days with the revival of the American System.

Foreign companies will be free to sell goods to Americans but only if they are manufactured in the U.S. This will lead to a wave of inbound investment in the U.S., a reduction in U.S. trade deficits, a stronger dollar (as the world demands dollars to invest here), and higher wages for U.S. workers. Higher wages will raise real incomes, stimulate consumption, decrease income inequality and expand the tax base to help reduce deficits without raising tax rates.

A Trump Portfolio

Sectors that will benefit from the return of the American System include:

Oil and natural gas drilling, production, and refining. This sector will benefit from Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” policies including increased leasing on Federal lands, increased offshore drilling, replenishment of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, new pipelines, and expanded refinery capacity.

Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium). Industrial metals will be in increased demand related to the expansion of U.S. manufacturing. Precious metals will be in demand as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and as a non-digital store of wealth.

Defense and National Security. This will especially benefit defense and intelligence contractors with extensive R&D programs. The U.S. does not need more obsolete weapons; we need newer and more sophisticated weapons to keep up with the high-tech systems that Russia is using. AI will be a valuable tool in intelligence analysis, especially from open sources (OSINT).

Automobile manufacturing. Foreign manufacturers will face huge tariffs. This will include Mexican manufacturers that are fronts for China. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be modified as needed to accommodate the tariffs.

Cryptocurrency plays. Trump will ease SEC and other regulatory constraints on cryptocurrency mining, distribution and use.

Banking and finance. As the economy grows, banks profit as intermediaries without the need for high leverage and high risk.

Trucking and airlines. These sectors will benefit from lower prices for refined products such as diesel and aviation fuel (basically kerosene).

Sectors that will underperform in a new Trump administration will be Big Pharma and Big Agriculture under the motto of Make America Healthy Again.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will lead this effort. Elon Musk will also lead an effort at government efficiency, which will hurt the profits of government contractors in sectors such as health care, education, and the Green New Scam (including EVs, and windmill manufacturers). DEI initiatives will wither and die. Portfolios that invest heavily in China or use ESG metrics will underperform.

Be sure to invest accordingly in the coming return of the American System, and rejoice as it brings prosperity back to U.S. citizens.

While Mark Cuban and other sore losers are leaving X to shout into the void, several major advertisers have returned to the platform.

Comcast, IBM, Disney, Warner Brothers, Discovery and Lionsgate Entertainment have all resumed ad spending on the social media giant – albeit this is more of a toe-dip than a full recommitment. According to Adweek, the brands collectively spent less than $3.3 million on X from January to September 2024, a far cry from the $170 million spent during the same period in 2023.

Either way, it’s an admission that pulling ad spend over ‘hate speech’ and ‘antisemitism’ was nothing more than a giant virtue signal, particularly considering Facebook and Instagram’s long history of providing a safe forum for child sexual abuse.

While a global survey by Kantar of senior marketers across 20 countries found that 26% of them plan to cut spending on X in 2025, the 2024 election may have changed that.

“X’s owner now has the ear of the president-elect, a man who has a long history of helping his friends, and punishing his enemies,” said Max Willens, senior analyst at Emarketer. “Sending at least a trickle of ad spending toward X may be seen as good for business, albeit in an indirect way.”

Advertising Cartel Under Fire

Speaking of the tide turning, the woke cabal of advertisers trying to starve conservative platforms out of a voice is now coming under fire (have we mentioned lately that we really appreciate our premium subscribers?).

In a Wednesday letter to Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Apple, and Meta, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr accused them of having “participated in a censorship cartel that included not only technology and social media companies but advertising, marketing, and so-called “fact-checking” organizations as well as the Biden-Harris Administration itself.”

“The relevant conduct extended from removing or blocking social media posts to suppress their information and viewpoints, including through efforts to delist them, lower their rankings, or harm their profitability.”

Carr then suggested that their protection from liability under Section 230 may be on the line.

“As you know, Big Tech’s prized liability shield, Section 230, is codified in the Communications Act, which the FCC administers. As relevant here, Section 230 only confers benefits on Big Tech companies when they operate, in the words of the statute, “in good faith.”

Wow…

Carr then set his sights on NewsGuard – which Jonathan Turley notes has been long accused by conservatives “of targeting conservative and libertarian sites and carrying out the agenda of its co-founder Steven Brill. Conversely, many media outlets have heralded his efforts to identify disinformation sites for advertisers and agencies.”

Basically, NewsGuard bombards conservative sites with struggle-session questionnaire emails demanding explanations for the slightest of indiscretions, after which they issue a “report card” that advertisers use to justify pulling ad spend.

As Carr notes in the letter; “It is in this context that I am writing to obtain information about your work with the one specific organization – the Orwellian named NewsGuard. As exposed by the Twitter Files, NewsGuard is a for-profit company that operates as part of the broader censorship cartel. Indeed, NewsGuard bills itself as the Internet’s arbiter of truth or, as its co-founder put it, a “Vaccine Against Misinformation.” Newsguard purports to rate the credibility of news and information outlets and tells readers and advertisers which outlets they can trust.”

Carr suggests following NewsGuard’s ratings may constitute a violation of Section 230 (this is huge).

“NewsGuard’s own track record raises questions about whether relying on the organization’s products would constitute “good faith” actions within the meaning of Section 230. For one, reports indicate that NewsGuard has consistently rated official propaganda from the Communist Party of China as more credible than American publications.“

“For another, NewsGuard aggressively fact checked and penalized websites that reported on the COVID-19 lab leak theory.”

Carr then demands the following information:

1. A list of every one of your products or services (if any, including advertising) that use or rely on any NewsGuard product, service, or ranking.
2. A list of every one of your products or services (if any) that enables any of your users or customers to use or rely on NewsGuard product, service, or ranking.
3. If you offer an advertising service, provide details on the use of any media monitor or fact checking service, including NewsGuard, that you may utilize.

The censorship and advertising boycott cartel must end now! https://t.co/jX7yyQspa3

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 15, 2024

Update(1120ET): Merely a year ago or less, Ukrainian officials and Kiev’s staunchest supporters essentially considered it ‘treason’ to even broach the possibility of peace talks with Russia. President Zelensky himself had frequently made it clear that he would not consider it so long as Putin is in power.

But on Friday, Zelensky issued some remarks which constitute a glaring 180-degree reversal, in the wake of Trump’s election victory, on the prospect of peace in Ukraine. Zelensky stated that under the Trump administration “the war will end faster”. He laid out the following in a fresh interview, according to a regional source:

“It is very important for us to have a just peace, so that we do not feel that we have lost our best because of the injustice that has been imposed on you. The war will end, but there is no exact date. Certainly, with the policies of this team that will now lead the White House, the war will end sooner. This is their approach, their promise to their society, and it is also very important to them,” he said.

As for the earlier Putin-Scholz phone call, it ended on a note that the two leaders should talk again soon. Their discussions has been described as “frank” and “detailed” concerning the Ukraine conflict. Putin conveyed to the German leader that Russia-German relations have seen “unprecedented degradation” – according to TASS.

Below is the call summary/readout from the Russian side:

“The chancellor and the Russian president agreed to stay in contact from now on. The German government will ensure that allies and partners, as well as the EU and NATO leadership are informed,” the source said.

In addition to the information released by the German government’s press service after the conversation, the source said that Scholz expressed concern over reports about the alleged deployment of North Korean servicemen to Russia. According to him, this could allegedly lead to “a significant escalation and expansion of the conflict.”

All of this – especially Zelensky’s apparent change of heart (or else realization that the war is unwinnable at this point) – points to strong momentum toward talks is already underway before Trump is sworn in on Jan.20. Zelensky, when he last met Trump in New York, had described that Ukraine has “been through hell”.

* * *

Potential near-term Russia-Ukraine negotiations to end the war continue to move toward reality in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladmir Putin are planning to hold their first phone call in almost two years on Friday. 

Bloomberg was the first to report the development, citing several sources, and highlights the uncertainty felt in Europe concerning Ukraine policy over Trump’s return to the White House. “Germany is Ukraine’s second-biggest supporter after the US and has pledged billions of euros in additional aid,” it notes.

Scholz first announced Sunday his desire to speak to Putin “soon” about achieving peace in Ukraine, bringing the war to an end. “Yes, I decided to talk to the president of Russia at the right time. But I’m a responsible politician, I don’t do it alone,” Scholz told a German broadcaster.

The timing of the German leader’s words suggest Trump being in the White House provides the nudge to finally get serious about diplomacy and negotiations with Moscow:

Scholz spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday, with the German chancellor’s spokesman saying the two discussed working “toward a return to peace in Europe.”

The last phone call between Putin and Scholz was all the way back in December 2022. Scholz made the call to urge that Russian troops leave Ukraine and return home, and there’s been radio silence between the two throughout the war.

Since then, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has insisted that Putin was “no longer even prepared” to speak with the chancellor, amid Berlin ramping up is military support for Ukraine and drastically expanding its defense budget, reversing a posture of historic neutrality.

France’s Macron had been the only European leader to hold semi-regular contact with Putin throughout the opening months of the war, but he came under severe criticism from some corners of Europe for doing so.

But the drastic political change in Washington is clearly changing the mood in war-weary Europe as well. Now, even Ukraine is getting the memo – that there’s about to be a different track.

“Ukrainian officials have said for months that they would not cede territory occupied by Russia in any peace settlement. Now, as Ukraine contemplates an accelerated timetable for negotiations pushed by President-elect Donald J. Trump, it is putting at least as much importance on obtaining security guarantees as on where an eventual cease-fire line might fall,” NY Times wrote Thursday.

“The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question,” one Ukrainian official told the Times. “The first question is security guarantees.”

Trump’s team has been talking about pressuring Kiev to halt aspirations to join NATO for twenty years. It would likely be on that basis that Ukraine will seek pledges from Western partners for protection in the event Moscow breaks any potential deal.

Several months after abruptly pulling the plug on a $15 charge just hours it was set to start, arguing it would have strained working families and small businesses, New York Governor Kathy Hochul decided to strain working families and small businesses anyway, and announced plans to revive congestion pricing for drivers entering large parts of Manhattan.

Hochul announced the initiative on Thursday, this time with a $9 charge for most motorists driving into Manhattan’s central business district.  However, the proposed plan is DOA: since Donald Trump opposes the plan, the governor has limited time to implement the new charge before the Jan 20 inauguration and avoid the incoming administration stalling the program, as it did during his first term. The $9 toll could bring in revenue that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs the city’s decrepit transit network, would borrow against to modernize a more than 100-year-old system.

Gov. Kathy Hochul announced the relaunch of the congestion pricing plan… starting as early as January 2025. The plan will toll drivers that enter the busiest part of Manhattan $9. Hochul says it would save daily commuters nearly $1,500 annually. @News12 pic.twitter.com/uboN5gCDyV

— Natalie Hernandez (@nataliehertv) November 14, 2024

“Governor Hochul paused congestion pricing because a daily $15 toll was too much for hard-working New Yorkers in this economic climate,” Avi Small, a spokesperson for the governor, said in a statement. “Tomorrow, the Governor will announce the path forward to fund mass transit, unclog our streets and improve public health by reducing air pollution.”

Donald Trump immediately responded, saying that “I have great respect for the Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, and look forward to working with her to Make New York and America Great Again. But I strongly disagree with the decision on the congestion tax.”

“It has never worked, but especially so with a city, town, or village that is trying to come back from very rough times, which can certainly be said of New York City. It will put New York City at a disadvantage over competing cities and states, and businesses will flee.”

Trump, whose platform of tax breaks for workers and retirees helped secure his return to the White House, said it would be those struggling to make ends meet who would suffer most.

“Not only is this a massive tax to people coming in, it is extremely inconvenient from both driving and personal bookkeeping standards. It will be virtually impossible for New York City to come back as long as the congestion tax is in effect,” he said.

So $15 is too expensive, as Hochul herself admitted, but $9 is “just right” for working families? Meanwhile, as it pleads that the MTA is in dire straits, New York spends over $4 billion on illegal aliens: If just these funds were redirected, NYC would have more than enough to support the MTA without further financial burdens. But, alas, Democrats seem unable to do simple math.

The liberal agenda seems relentless, never giving us a moment to rest. Just as we celebrated the election of a new president, Governor Kathy Hochul reminded us of our blue-state reality by reviving the push for congestion pricing. She wants to implement this plan by the end of… pic.twitter.com/fqr2UNBIZs

— Ying Tan (@YingTanForNY) November 14, 2024

Pausing the congestion pricing opened up a $15 billion deficit in the MTA’s current capital plan and deferred signal upgrades, subway renovations, accessibility projects and purchasing 250 electric buses; it did however enable continued embezzlement, corruption and inefficiency that have marked the MTA for decades. The MTA’s next five-year $65.4 billion capital budget is also at risk as nearly half of it is unfunded. The transit provider is seeking to rehabilitate aging structures after years of neglect and improve service to attract more riders to its system of subways, buses and commuter rail lines.

Hochul’s revised plan would initially slash the prior tolling structure by 40%, with E-ZPass motorists paying $9 rather than $15 to drive south of 60th Street during peak hours, according to the people familiar.

To begin the program, Hochul needs the federal government to approve the revised tolling structure and to also sign a value pricing pilot program agreement with New York. However, it is guaranteed that the incoming Trump administration will not make those authorizations after the president said he would terminate congestion pricing in his first week back in the White House.

Even if Hochul gets federal approval – which it won’t – Bloomberg reports that congestion pricing faces several lawsuits, including from New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, who says the environmental review of the tolling program was insufficient and doesn’t show the potential impacts to some Garden State neighborhoods. A lower fee fails to make up for the failures of that review, lawyers for Murphy wrote in a letter dated Wednesday and filed to the court.

“Merely lowering the toll amount would not cure the defects in the National Environmental Policy Act review process conducted by the defendants when the Federal Highway Administration issued its Finding of No Significant Impact,” the lawyers wrote in the letter, which urges the court to make a ruling in the case.

If implemented, the toll would apply to motorists entering Manhattan’s central business district, which runs from 60th Street to the southern end of the island. New York City is the world’s most-congested urban area, according to INRIX Inc., a traffic-data analysis firm.

The goal of congestion pricing is to reduce the number of the vehicles in the district by 17% and improve air quality. It may be difficult to hit those targets with a lower $9 toll because it may fail to persuade commuters and visitors to use public transportation rather than cars to get into Manhattan.

The tolling program could still face risks even after Trump takes office. Brad Lander, New York City’s comptroller — who supports congestion pricing and has been push Hochul to restart it — warned that the incoming administration could try to end the program through litigation or administrative action.

“Theoretically in the same way that New Jersey sued, the federal government could turn around and sue to say it was done improperly,” Lander said Wednesday, speaking about the environmental review process.

Trump and Hochul have been sharply at odds over the years, but had a warm phone call after the Republican won the Nov. 5 election over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Hochul, 66, has the power to pardon Trump of his May conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal reimbursement of 2016 hush money payments — should Judge Juan Merchan not dismiss the case outright pending sentencing later this month.

Trump’s ambitious tax-reform plans call for eliminating the $10,000 State and Local Tax (SALT) federal tax deduction cap — which hits New Yorkers particularly hard –– as well as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

After president-elect Trump nominated the likes of Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr. Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth to cabinet positions, the usual crowd of neocons, warmongers and screechy leftists are unhappy. Good.

First in line was RINO warmonger and all around lunatic John Bolton, who must be devastated that he won’t see a massive war with Iran any time soon.

Bolton was toured around the defunct legacy cable news outlets to label Gabbard and Gaetz as the “worst” and “second worst” cabinet nominations in history.

Really? Worse than these guys?

Biden Administration Declares Trump Cabinet Picks ‘Unqualified’ https://t.co/miNG5Te7kx pic.twitter.com/7o01n5KdlF

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) November 13, 2024

Bolton called for FBI investigations into Gaetz and Gabbard before anyone even thinks about Senate confirmation hearings.

He labelled Gabbard a “Russian propagandist,” and “a serious threat to our national security” without citing any evidence whatsoever.

John Bolton unknowingly making one of the best cases for why Tulsi Gabbard and Matt Gaetz are absolutely necessary in the Trump administration 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nIlQax9j4I

— 🇺🇸Jessica🇺🇸 (@Jessica_4_Trump) November 14, 2024

Later he called Gaetz “totally incompetent,” and “a person of moral turpitude.”

John Bolton just said Matt Gaetz is the “worst nomination for a cabinet position in American history.”

This confirms that Gaetz is indeed the best and most qualified person to lead the DOJ. President Trump made a revolutionary pick.

Inverse Bolton. pic.twitter.com/MfLipxw92I

— George (@BehizyTweets) November 14, 2024

Wow. John Bolton, a primary advocate of the Iraq War, someone who has overseen totally undemocratic coups around the world, is calling someone else immoral.

John Bolton has long been considered such a psychotic warmongering maniac that even during the War on Terror — when Congress gave Bush/Cheney everything they wanted — Bolton couldn’t get confirmed by the Senate for US Amb to UN.

Now he’s liberal media’s arbiter of conscience: https://t.co/puQbxw6DVk

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 14, 2024

If John Bolton hates someone… that means they’re good for the country.

— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) November 14, 2024

He then trounced Gabbard again while admitting he’s done no research on her.

Warmonger John Bolton is totally furious that President Trump nominated Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence.

“She’s totally not competent for that job. Gaetz is the worst. She may be tracking in at the second worst.”

All the worst people are mad right now 😂 pic.twitter.com/dMMvGTnjrp

— George (@BehizyTweets) November 14, 2024

On CNN Bolton declared that the Gaetz nomination “is like the legend of Caligula, the Roman emperor who wanted to nominate his horse as a Roman consul,” again claiming both he and Gabbard are “lacking in the in the moral characteristics, the character that you need to hold these jobs.”

Let John Bolton losing his absolute shit over Tulsi Gabbard and Matt Gaetz be the wholesome and quality content you need to kick off your Thursday morning. pic.twitter.com/KuBUyZ6PI6

— The Redheaded libertarian (@TRHLofficial) November 14, 2024

This is exactly the kind of person that its good to see pissed off.

John Bolton, who is a staggeringly dumb warmonger, being against someone is a great sign!

Gaetz will be great. https://t.co/IKtqnEKOKg

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 14, 2024

Next up, Bill Kristol, another Project For A New American Century neocon is annoyed that Trump has nominated Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense.

“There’s zero chance Roger Wicker thinks Hegseth a defensible selection. Nor do Tom Cotton or Dan Sullivan. Will they say that publicly? It will be easier if there’s thorough research into Hegseth’s background and marshaling of evidence for his unfitness.” https://t.co/Vuy87kFp9H

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 13, 2024

Good.

He’s got bad tattoos…or something and will use the military against Americans, according to Kristol.

“The story that emerges from Hegseth’s sleeve provides a veritable checklist of today’s Christian nationalist folklore…Is Hegseth likely to prevent Trump from using the military against Americans, as the president-elect has stated he intends to do?” https://t.co/yKdgkD2Upm

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 14, 2024

Dear President Trump and Elon Musk,

Palantir is on Team Trump!!!

We’ll even pretend Pete Hegseth is qualified to be SecDef. Please, please, please…be nice to us over the next four years.

Sincerely,

Your corporate allies who really do want to Make America Great Again https://t.co/UinL8Xu5No

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 14, 2024

It’s going to be a great 4yrs watching you lose your mind.

— Mr. Appalachian (@MrAppalachian) November 14, 2024

The most hilarious thing about this one is the fact that Kristol actually endorsed Hegseth for the Senate before Hegseth was allied with Trump.

Kkkkkkkk pic.twitter.com/y0eqXiJjIS

— Mirela Franz MAGA 🇺🇸 2️⃣2️⃣🇧🇷 @MiLick (@MiLick74) November 14, 2024

He’s bad now though! 😂

— Publius1787 (@Publius1787179) November 13, 2024

But, but but Hegseth works for Fox News.

Yes. He also served in Iraq and Afghanistan, was a platoon leader at Guantanamo Bay, a Major in the Army, has two Bronze Stars, two Commendation medals and a National Defense award.

He’s worked extensively with veterans, held a previous position in the government and has two degrees from Harvard and Princeton.

“He’s got 20 years in service. Afghanistan, Iraq. Two bronze stars. Princeton, Harvard. Yeah, he’s on TV, but so are the rest of us.”

Scott Jennings defends the @PeteHegseth pick for Sec. of Defense as CNN guests watch in shock 🔥 pic.twitter.com/iIrLaarCMe

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 13, 2024

Two Ivy League degrees and he’s been shot at

— vegasdoxi (@vegasdoxi) November 13, 2024

He’s also not an out of touch four star general ensconced in years of Pentagon bureaucracy.

Current DOD:

Failed the last six audits in a row
Readiness is at historic lows
Recruiting is in the toilet
Failing to recognize the China threat

Obviously putting government bureaucrats in charge has failed.

— Samuel Culper 722 (@politiwars) November 13, 2024

You just want someone who will bomb more countries. Just say it. Stop pretending otherwise

— The Guiltless Man (@theguiltlessman) November 13, 2024

Finally, moving to RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary.

pic.twitter.com/PyuJWR73Qp

— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) November 14, 2024

Need we say more?

Ok, there’s this.

RFK Jr. Was a star to the Hollywood left (especially the anti-vax Hollywood left, a demo we haven’t talked much about over the past 4 years), and appeared regularly on MSNBC and The Daily Show.

He’s basically just another Donald Trump they built up, and are now screaming that… https://t.co/HePU8vWKIi

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) November 14, 2024

Just because he’s now aligned with Trump he’s somehow not to be considered for a cabinet position.

2008: Obama is strongly considering RFK to run EPA

2024: RFK to run HHS

total realignment https://t.co/YBQgkB0ZDI pic.twitter.com/oKrOUHxGU8

— Will Manidis (@WillManidis) November 14, 2024

The guy has spent his life fighting to make food safe to eat and water safe to drink.

Best comment ever. 😎🪕🇺🇸

“I spent 30 years trying to get mercury out of the fish in this country, and nobody ever called me anti-fish.”-RFK JR. pic.twitter.com/yIwzeAtubF

— Dr. Ben Tapper (@DrBenTapper1) November 14, 2024

He’s qualified.

America, your new HHS Secretary RFK Jr. has a message for you about our food

This is the single most important video on the internet right now

We must stop poisoning ourselves & our children. Soon this will be illegal. Can’t happen fast enough

Thank Godpic.twitter.com/Y7lroE5T2y

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 14, 2024

*  *  *

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Elon Musk could be on his way to becoming the first trillionaire by the end of the decade, as two of his private companies soar in value, while his public company, Tesla, recently surpassed a trillion dollars in market capitalization. 

A new report from the Financial Times cites people familiar with the discussions, stating that Musk’s SpaceX—the world leader in rocket launches and high-speed space internet (via Starlink)—is preparing to launch a tender offer in December to sell existing shares at $135 each. This indicates that the rocket company’s valuation has surged by another $40 billion, reaching $250 billion, up from $210 billion earlier this year.

Starship rocket booster caught by tower pic.twitter.com/aOQmSkt6YE

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 13, 2024

The people said Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI recently raised $5 billion at a valuation of $45 billion, doubling in just a few short months. Soaring values in Musk’s private companies have added to his overall net worth. 

Musk’s cozy relationship with the Trump administration will likely result in Tesla winning the multi-year EV price war. A Reuters report from Thursday detailed how Donald Trump was planning to eliminate the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EVs. In return, this would destroy Musk’s competition, such as Rivian, Luicid, and legacy automakers.

As we previously noted, “Musk’s strategy to win the EV price war: Build the largest EV business with taxpayer dollars, popularize EVs, allow other startups and OEMs to enter the market, and then support politicians who want to end EV subsidies, crushing the competition and leaving Tesla reigning supreme.”

Meanwhile, ‘the Trump bump’ in equity markets sent Tesla shares over the trillion-dollar market cap level this past week.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s net worth has risen to $306.5 billion, up $77.5 billion on the year – primarily because of the latest Tesla price surge. 

In September, wealth-tracking website Informa Connect published a report forecasting Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire by 2027. This news is likely disheartening for struggling WeWork co-founder Adam Neumann, who famously said in 2019 that he wanted to live forever and become the first trillionaire. 

Musk’s dominance in space, EVs, AI, and media—with no other billionaire even close to his level of success, and more importantly, to his contributions to the nation’s success in this global technology race—has only infuriated far-left, anti-American Democrats…

If you’re wondering how bitter the Left is at @elonmusk for trying to save America, Maddow is straight up demanding the Kamala administration (not gonna happen!) cancel all SpaceX govt contracts. Because “national security.” pic.twitter.com/kihdzhkAZS

— Buck Sexton (@BuckSexton) November 5, 2024

… who are now calling for the dismantling of Musk’s companies. 

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The original “Jetsons” series from 1962–1963 is not easy to find in syndication. That’s too bad. It was a wonderful show. 

The theme of this animated show (“cartoon”) was that in the future the technology would make life much more convenient but all the usual problems would still be there. The kids would still be annoying and expensive but ultimately del ightful, the job still arduous even if it is only a few hours a week, the boss would still be officious, people would still get sick, and all the normal dynamics of human life would still be there. 

The original Jetsons was the opposite of transhumanism. All that would really change is that everything would be speedier. The cars would fly. We would live in the clouds. We would have a video phone. Robots would do the chores. Teachers would be electronic. We would travel with ease. Buildings would appear much more quickly, and be torn down too. 

There would still be cops on the beat, thieves on the loose, lessons to learn at school, and teenage daughters that spend too much money. Hilariously, the little robots flying around always had puffs of smoke coming out of them as if powered by natural gas. You still had to fuel them. 

That’s what made the series so delightful. The future promises to be wonderful but not solve all our problems. Human nature itself would still be present, unchanged, and present the usual challenges and dilemmas. The series both ramped up our expectations and dialed them back. 

It was oddly realistic. We did (eventually) get video phones, electronic teachers, and work itself would be lessened in physical difficulty and time spent. But that would only leave us with the same old problems of quirky personalities, family instability, problems with coworkers, and capital depreciation (everything was always being repaired). 

In that way, the series perfectly captured the culture of a time and its forward vision. 

I wrote a book about it (“It’s a Jetsons World”). It was the height of techno-enthusiasm. I tried to be realistic but I was caught up in the moment, and was a bit too optimistic and had not considered the downside of digital everything. 

In particular, I had not thought through the implications of such a speedy conversion from analogue to digital and just how fragile that would be. Nor had I considered the surveillance angle much less the way our information would become commodified and sold to governments to oppress us even more. Finally I had not imagined that the corporate leadership of the new digital world would be so compromised by involvement in government. 

It struck me that all this new technology represented nothing but liberation. I was wrong about that and had not taken seriously the first lesson of the Jetsons show, namely that all the problems would remain present despite all the technological changes. 

In my book, I mention briefly that the series was rebooted twenty years later, in the mid-eighties. It had better production values, and some new characters. The biggest change was that the mood was darker. The gadgets changed from happy and friendly to vaguely burdensome even to the point of being menacing. 

The machines started talking back and even pushing back. Humans were less in charge and machines more so. They became a source of oppression rather than a universal force of emancipation. They seemed almost to have volition. In a brilliant anticipation of “artificial intelligence” humans seemed to lose some modicum of control as the machinery became ever more imposing. 

I never liked the rebooted series probably because it was suggesting something that I did not want to hear. I did not believe back in 2011 when my book came out that my glorious phone and my wonderful websites would eventually turn on me. But, as it turns out, the reboot of the series was precisely right, as we began to learn some twenty years later. 

It’s long past time that we all take a more critical look at the technologies that define our current times. The National Security Administration and the government generally have become major customers of all the main platforms, including Amazon with its acres of servers for sale and Microsoft which sells so much to the state. 

That’s just the start of it. Big tech giants have been found to be promoting, without being asked, visions of the world that are contrary to what a majority of Americans favor, as well as engaging in censorship surrounding key elections, showing themselves to be far from neutral. 

For making available a relatively censorship-free venue, Elon Musk’s X has been pilloried by lawfare of all sorts, and became a pariah in the tech world simply by showing support for Trump over the censors. 

There are ways to push back by simply saying no. I used to love these home appliances made by Google, Amazon and the like until I realized that, of course, they are, in effect, tools of surveillance. Yes, they are always listening, else they could not hear when you call them to attention. Once you think about it, the denials are preposterous. 

Because I was such a fan, one company kept sending more appliances to me. I had three in my home in addition to the main one, and started giving them out to friends. One day it dawned on me that this company was not being sweet and generous but rather had its own self-interest going on. I dreaded it because I had gotten used to them all, but I unplugged them all and threw them out. 

Thereafter I would have to check the time by looking instead of yelling and have to stop and start music by standing up and moving around the room. It turned out to be just fine. I missed nothing about these contraptions. In fact, it was the reverse. I found myself relaxing precisely because I did not have a surveillance device in my home! It felt private for the first time in many years. 

Try it out yourself! I took a hammer to mine. It felt good. 

I’ve turned off as many notifications as possible on my phone and experienced blessed peace as a result. I’ve learned to eschew all “smart” products and choose old-fashioned ones. I’m much happier as a result. Similarly, there is a case for storing up some silver dimes and cash in case the empire of digits goes down. 

There are many ways to secede from all the nonsense. It just takes a bit of effort. 

What I want is to go back to the first iteration of “The Jetsons” when the technology was fun while hoping to avoid the second interaction when the technology became a menacing threat to the good life. 

Speaking of which, can Trump please restore the old Smithsonian Museum of Arts and Industry in Washington, D.C.? It was the first one erected. It was a glorious homage to the practical arts that made America great. It was closed and replaced in the Obama years with a “Museum of the Future” filled with junk no one wants to see. The great things that filled the museum are now stored in a government warehouse somewhere. Maybe Trump can bring it back! 

We’ll see. I don’t believe a president can solve all the problems with technology today. That leaves it to the rest of us to be more attentive and not find ourselves blindly stumbling into a dystopian world created by a bunch of irresponsible and freedom-hating tech titans. We should be in charge of the machines and not the reverse. 

It’s good to be reminded of that from time to time. 

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Shares of vaccine makers slumped in premarket trading, extending losses for a second day after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Wall Street analysts told clients this development has sparked vast uncertainty across the biotechnology sector. 

The 70-year-old Kennedy has been a longtime health advocate, and Trump said he would let Kennedy “go wild” should he win the November 5 election.

“He’s going to help make America healthy again. … He wants to do some things, and we’re going to let him get to it,” Trump said during his victory speech.

However, making America healthy again will require a complete overhaul of the FDA and USDA. Kennedy could dismantle the longstanding cozy relationships between big pharma and the federal government during Trump’s second term. This very prospect spooked vaccine stocks in premarket trading in New York, extending losses from Thursday.

US Premarket: 

• Moderna (-2.2%), Novavax (-2.6%) and BioNTech (-2.1%) extended losses from Thursday’s decline

EU Cash: 

• In Europe, shares of European vaccine makers such as Sanofi and GSK traded lower

“Healthcare/Pharma in focus this morning (GSXEPHAR), following Robert F Kennedy being confirmed as Trump’s nominee for health secretary which sparked a pharma and specifically vaccine makers sell off into the close yesterday. To this point, Kennedy has been vocal on vaccines in the past, seen as one of the most prominent anti-vaxxer’s in the US. Hence witnessing a -3sd move in our Pharma basket,” Goldman’s Martin Ehigiator told clients on Friday morning.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Papadakis told clients this morning that his team slashed GSK’s rating to “Hold” following the news. 

“We consider vaccines to be amongst the greatest scientific achievements to impact public health: unfortunately this view is not shared by the nominee,” Papadakis said. 

Kennedy’s track record of questioning experimental mRNA vaccines and taking on government bureaucracies overseeing the vaccine industry has caught the attention of many Americans… 

He stated earlier this year:

“Something is wrong with that whole system … 

“When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is like 38 different vaccines and it looks like it’s meant for a horse, not a10-pound or a 20-pound baby… do you ever see the size of it, its massive, then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically. I’ve seen it too many times.”

And, of course, Kennedy taking on big pharma’s corruption in federal agencies and the entire public health sector is just bad news for profits. Wall Street analysts outlined this very clearly to clients (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

RBC Capital Markets

• Analyst Brian Abrahams says Kennedy’s selection may have “far- reaching and difficult-to-project implications for the biotechnology sector”
• This, Abrahams says, adds a “considerable layer of uncertainty and challenging investability until there is greater clarity on his likelihood of actually gaining the role, his directives, and who else will lead the other key federal healthcare agencies”
• There is uncertainty over whether Kennedy will ultimately take the role, and that could mitigate potential risks, though Abrahams says it looks “more likely than not he will”

JPMorgan

• Analyst Chris Schott says it is difficult to evaluate the exact impact Kennedy would have on the biopharma industry at this point, but is not surprised the sector has come under pressure due to Kennedy’s previously stated views
• With the HHS secretary overseeing organizations with around 80,000 employees along with various federal and state laws, Schott expects it would take time to enact major changes

Wells Fargo

• Analyst Larry Biegelsen says Kennedy’s recent policy ideas are not focused on medtech; this could result in the sector “being relatively well positioned within healthcare”
• However, while current policy ideas do not directly impact devices, they “may indirectly or they could in the future,” Biegelsen says
• For example, Kennedy’s concerns about vaccines may “lead to a reduction in vaccination rates which would negatively impact device companies that make the syringes for vaccines,” Biegelsen says

TD Cowen

• Analyst Rick Weissenstein says he continues to believe Kennedy will not be confirmed by the Republican-controlled senate, but notes Trump could use a recess appointment to get him into office
• “If Trump manages to make a recess appointment, RFK Jr.’s term would only last for about two years at the most, though Kennedy Jr. could be appointed again through the same recess appointment or through the regular senate confirmation process”

RBC’s Abrahams noted, “Whether RFK ultimately takes the seat is still uncertain,” adding, “The Senate may push back.” 

Kennedy founded the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense about a decade ago, one of the most well-funded organizations focusing on children’s health. 

Meanwhile, CNN’s Sanjay Gupta melted down over Kennedy’s new possible role to head up HHS. 

“I can’t think of any single individual who would be more damaging to public health than RFK,” Gupta said.

CNN freaking out about @RobertKennedyJr taking over HHS: “Somebody said to me today, ‘I can’t think of any single individual who would be more damaging to public health than RFK'” pic.twitter.com/r4742BvIwF

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 14, 2024

In other words, Kennedy would disrupt and ban big vaccine companies from controlling the airwaves with advertising dollars, and in return, ad revenues for CNN and other MSM outlets would plummet. 

Also, Stephen Colbert threw a tantrum overnight because this meant the late-night show’s ad revenues from big pharma would implode.

CNN freaking out about @RobertKennedyJr taking over HHS: “Somebody said to me today, ‘I can’t think of any single individual who would be more damaging to public health than RFK'” pic.twitter.com/r4742BvIwF

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 14, 2024

Colbert was big pharma’s cheerleader. 

Stephen Colbert, winning hearts and minds of the vaccine hesitant pic.twitter.com/fa98vRrcRj

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 29, 2021

Before the 2020 election Stephen Colbert was doing skits encouraging people to be skeptical of Big Pharma and its motives.

After the election he was dancing like a fool while surrounded by people dressed as syringes. pic.twitter.com/9IXtxKRi7M

— MAZE (@mazemoore) March 29, 2024

Why does the only remedy for illness always seem to be vaccines and medicines from big pharma? Well, it’s a big business. Eating healthy and exercising doesn’t make Wall Street money. It’s time for reform. 

By Russell Clark, author of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack

America Created The Trade Imbalance

Donald Trump has rallied against nations that run trade surpluses with the US, accusing them of stealing American jobs. Prior to the 1980s, the US ran a flat current account (of which the trade balance is the largest component). Moving from the gold standard was a key driver in the ability for trade deficits to open up. But why does only the US run such large trade deficits?

Korea offers a good explanation of how America created the trade deficit. The Korean example pretty much generalizes across east Asia, and unlike Japan in 1980s, or China now is not seen as a threat, so it allows for more rational analysis. During the boom years of Korea in the early 1990s, it was running a close to flat trade balance. It was importing as much as it was exporting.

Korea’s problem was that it had come to rely on global (read American) financing. We can most clearly see this using BIS data. This looks at claims of foreign banks by Koreans versus claims by Koreans on foreign banks. When the number rises, it means foreign banks are more heavily participating in the Korean financial system.

Surges in lending in 1997 and 2007, preceded the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial Crisis. When the flow of capital turned, the Korean Won suffered, and economic activity in Korea weakened dramatically.

Koreans (and in fact Asian, Latin American, Russians and most emerging markets) learned that foreign (mainly American) financing could not be relied on, so nations needed to have strong exports, and to build up foreign reserves. In this respect they were following in the steps of Japan. Prior to Japan, almost all foreign reserves were held as gold, but Japan started to build US treasury reserves, in part to try and slow the strengthening of the Yen.

The rest of the world followed suit, and by 2013, we can count 12 trillion in foreign reserves.

Talk of foreign reserves, and currency movements tend to obscure the simplicity of what is really happening. Governments learned that financial markets can be volatile, and so made a choice to reduce their consumption, and build up savings. Someone had to lend to them, and that was the US. Unlike a bank, this lending happened via trade balance, where the US consumed more that it made. The problem, as we see above with Korea, is when lending nations, like Korea also start to become borrowers. When there are only borrowers, someone is going to not get a loan, and the cycle breaks down. So far, China has been happy to be a lender, in so far it has a record trade surplus.

Trump’s trade policies seem to be focused on getting the trade surplus in balance. I can also safely assume, that he does not plan to achieve this through austerity and recession. For Asian nations they are faced with a tricky choice. Relying on exports, and building foreign reserves leaves them exposed politically, and at risk of tariffs and trade wars. The better option is to stimulate. Japan is probably ahead of the curve in this respect. They have embarked on very stimulatory policy, although relied too heavily on Yen weakness.

But despite Yen weakness Japanese foreign reserves are declining. When I was there in May, it was booming.

We have already seen an inflection in the long term trend of Treasuries versus gold. What happens when China realizes it has no option but to stimulate?

In a strange way, perhaps China’s refusal to stimulate is perhaps the most bullish thing in the market. Collapsing Chinese yields have coincided with great strength in US assets.

In contrast to China, US 30 year treasury yields are looking to test 5% again in my view.

If China chooses to stimulate to reduce its trade surplus, then even higher yields look likely to me. I think Asians have been slow to realize that the game has changed, although Shinzo Abe and Japan seemed to understand it early on.

Stimulus is the only game in town now. When China stimulates, who will be left to lend to the US?

If the omniscient chaps at BofA are right, the soft landing narrative is about to crash as they forecast a well below consensus tumble in retail sales this morning…

Source: BofA

…but notably this is mainly due to seasonals, apparently. Seasonal adjustments are likely to impact the October retail sales report. The Census Bureau’s projected seasonal factor (SF) for October 2024 is considerably less favorable than the October 2023 SF. Meanwhile, the October SF in the BAC card data is little changed from last year.

Source: BofA

So, given all that, what happened!?

Well, a lot!

• The headline retail sales print beat expectations rising 0.4% (+0.3% exp).

• Core retail sales (ex-autos and gas) disappointed, rising just 0.1% (+0.3% exp).

• But the Control Group – which is used for GDP calculations – tumbled 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).

BUT – the disappointments are likely driven by major upward revisions to the prior month

• Headline September revised up from +0.4% MoM to +0.8% MoM.

• Core revised up from +0.7% to +1.2% MoM.

• Control Group revised up from +0.7% MoM to +1.2% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

The driver of the headline beat was all cars and food…

Core retail sales growth slowed on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales jumped 6.8% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

A big outlier of an adjustment for an October… it’s almost as if they wanted to make the numbers look bad on purpose…

This is odd: Census Bureau used a surprisingly weak – and a big negative outlier – seasonal adjustment factor for retail sales. If comparable adj factor had been used as prior Octobers, retail sales would have been a 1% increase pic.twitter.com/TbtKyyNQop

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 15, 2024

The Control Group data is ‘noisy’ – September was revised up to its strongest MoM jump since Jan 2023 (but this was the second monthly decline in nominal retail sales in three months)…

Source: Bloomberg

A real Goldilocks of a data set there – hot headline, cool core, ugly control group – take your pick, dove or hawk!