By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

US markets have been in risk-on mode since early votes for Miami-Dade County (usually a Democrat stronghold) in Florida hinted that US voters would be sending Donald Trump back to the White House. The S&P500 had its best week of a very good year last week to close 4.66% higher than the previous Friday. A well-telegraphed 25bps Fed rate cut helped the rally to last into the weekend, with assists from the BOE and Rijksbank who both cut their own policy rates.

The extra liquidity from the Fed cut probably helped Bitcoin to crack the $80k barrier over the weekend. That’s up $10k/coin in the space of one week as crypto bros anticipate a more friendly regulatory attitude emanating from the White House once Trump is inaugurated early next year. RaboResearch is expecting a 25bp cut in December and another in January. After that we think the Fed will be on hold as Trump hits the ground running with executive orders on tariffs and deportations, and legislation to cut taxes that will be a strong chance of passing through Congress now that the Republicans appear to be on track to secure majorities in both houses. The margin in the House might be thin, but it would be a brave GOP dissenter to push back against a renewed MAGA mandate that saw a Republican candidate for the Presidency win the popular vote for just the second time in 30+ years.

Elon Musk has come away as a big winner from the election. As one ham joked on X, Musk “spent $44 billion on Twitter and all he got was control of all 3 branches of the federal government.”

Elon is such a dumbass. He spent $44 billion on Twitter and all he got was control of all 3 branches of the federal government.

— Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) November 6, 2024

Tesla stock closed a touch over 29% higher last week, suggesting that markets aren’t concerned that Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” rhetoric or past criticisms of green energy subsidies contained in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will put a dent in the outlook for future earnings. Either that or markets are still just trading vibes at this point.

So, in a nutshell the animal spirits are back, but not every security is sending an unsubtle ‘risk-on’ message. US 10-year treasury bonds, for instance, actually closed last week higher. Yields fell 8bps on the week, despite a 16bps rise last Wednesday when the Trump win was first confirmed. Spot gold fell 1.89% to $2,685/oz, marking a second consecutive week of losses after a strong run of gains since the start of the year.

Diverging price action in gold and Treasuries is interesting. People buy gold for different reasons, but one way to think of gold is as an infinite duration, zero-coupon adjustable face value bond. The face value of gold has been adjusting higher all year as markets priced in lower policy rates at the front end, a future awash with debt, and uncertainty over the future role of the Dollar as reserve currency. It’s certainly too early to call a halt in the rally (especially while the fundamentals appear conducive), but the strong surge in the Dollar post-election has seen the $2,800/oz resistance level respected for the time being.

While US equities have been surging, the same cannot be said of other markets. The EuroStoxx 50 closed down 1.54% last week – it’s fourth-consecutive weekly loss – and the FTSE100 fell by 1.28% (it’s third consecutive weekly loss). The divergence comes despite US equities being priced much more richly than their European counterparts. Debt securities told a similar tale, with both 10y Gilts and Bunds outperforming their US counterparts over the course of the week.

So, ‘Make America Great Again’ is in the price, while managed decline in Europe seems to also be in the price. European leaders are understandably unhappy about this. Emmanuel Macron responded to Trump’s election win with a strange metaphor about herbivores and carnivores, which seemed to suggest that the European Union would be on the menu while the United States and China battled it out for geopolitical dominance.

The recent disintegration of Olaf Scholz’s government in Germany perhaps hints that Macron isn’t too far wide of the mark. Fresh figures last week confirmed an acceleration in the decline of German industrial production, while trade numbers also confirmed a fall in exports and final PMIs again revealed a manufacturing sector in rapid retreat. Forced weaning off cheap Russian gas has collided with a challenging geopolitical and trade outlook to make Germany in 2024 start to look a bit like Britain in 1974 (except without the debt problem).

Perhaps emblematic of the malaise is the startling admission of the President of the German electoral commission, Ruth Brand, that Germany may lack the state capacity to hold snap elections due to a shortage of paper ballots. Commenting on the logistics surrounding potential timing of an election, the CDU’s Thorsten Frei reportedly said “we must be careful not to make ourselves look ridiculous internationally with a debate at this level.” Unfortunately the horse may have bolted on that score.

Thankfully, European leaders seem to recognize the difficult position that the union finds itself in, although solutions remain elusive. Strategic autonomy may be the goal for leaders like Macron, but that recalls the punchline of a popular joke that in order to get there “I wouldn’t start from here”. EU leaders meeting in Budapest issued a statement on Friday committing to improve the functioning of the single market, take steps towards a savings and investments union by 2026, ensure industrial renewal and decarbonization, pursue energy sovereignty and pursue an “ambitious, robust, open and sustainable trade policy” (among other things).

These are all admirable ambitions, but the ‘how’ is going to be much more important than the ‘what’ for items like energy sovereignty, while ambitions for open trade looks like a continuation of wishful thinking in an increasingly mercantilist environment. As our Global Analyst Michael Every has recently elucidated, economic statecraft is becoming more important than ever. Perhaps the political animals of the EU need to do more to recapture the spirit that led to previous success?

On Sunday The Washington Post reported that President-elect Donald Trump held his first phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin since being elected, saying it focused on achieving peace in Ukraine. The call supposedly happened from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Thursday.

“During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe,” WaPo wrote, citing several sources.

But the Kremlin is denying that any of this happened. It is saying the call didn’t even take place. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blasted the Post report as “pure fiction” and said that currently there are no plans for the Russian president to speak to Trump.

“This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it’s just false information. There was no conversation,” Peskov told reporters in a briefing.

“This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications,” Peskov added.

He was asked if there are any plans of Putin to soon speak to Trump or be in contact, to which Peskov responded that “There are no concrete plans yet.”

American media reports of the alleged call, which Russia now denies happened, sounded hopeful – given the talks were said to focus on “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.”

Interestingly, Reuters had also reported the call had taken place, but all the reports were based on anonymous sources. The Trump team has essentially refused to confirm or deny on an official level:

Asked about the purported Trump-Putin call, Steven Cheung, Trump’s communications director, said: “We do not comment on private calls between President Trump and other world leaders.”

Ukraine had previously expressed it remained totally unaware of any call: “Reports that the Ukrainian side was informed in advance of the alleged call are false. Subsequently, Ukraine could not have endorsed or opposed the call,” foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi had said to Reuters.

Independent geopolitical analysis website Moon of Alabama views the Kremlin’s denial as likely more accurate:

I doubt that the Trump campaign was listening live to Putin and picked up the phone to call him on that very same day. I thus believe the Kremlin spokesman – i.e no call has taken place – and regard the Washington Post report as a hoax.

The Washington Post sourcing – “a person familiar with the call” – is extremely vague. The authors of the piece are Ellen Nakashima, John Hudson and Josh Dawsey.

Ellen Nakashima is known for ‘reporting’ this or that nonsense about ‘Russigate’ for which she and others received a Pulitzer Price. We today know that the alleged Russian influence in the 2016 election was a hoax that has since been thoroughly debunked.

One very curious line from the WaPo report included Trump warning Putin about “Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe”—which is unlikely to make Putin very fearful given US troop numbers in Europe are not yet in very substantial or huge numbers.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 KREMLIN: NO, WAPO, TRUMP DID NOT CALL PUTIN… YOU LIED.

Russia is denying reports that President-elect Trump called Putin last week to discuss ending the Ukraine war.

The Washington Post claimed Trump told Putin to hold back on making the conflict worse, but the Kremlin… pic.twitter.com/KI80MQZX0O

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 11, 2024

Russian state media reminds the world on Monday that “Russia, which currently has the advantage on the battlefield, has said that it will only accept an outcome that addresses the core causes of the Ukraine conflict.” The report adds: “Those include NATO’s enlargement in Europe and Kiev’s discriminatory policies against ethnic Russians, according to Moscow.

Via Remix News,

With the German government collapsing, one of the main proponents of an Alternative for Germany (AfD) ban, CDU politician Marco Wanderwitz, is pushing for a speedy procedure right before new elections.

“Our aim is still to submit the motion and vote on it in this legislative period and thus get the proceedings at the Federal Constitutional Court underway,” he told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland.

He said that things now have to “move quickly.”

CDU MP Marco Wanderwitz says the AfD, the second most popular party in the country, must be banned to save democracy. (Source: Wanderwitz.de)

As Remix News has long reported, MP Wanderwitz, who was defeated by an AfD politician in local elections but gained re-entry into the Bundestag due to being on the CDU party list, has been pushing for a ban for a year. In order to submit a motion to ban the AfD, he needs 37 fellow MPs, or 5 percent of the Bundestag MPs, to vote with him.

Germany 🇩🇪 may BAN the AfD party, the second-largest party in the country.

Activists want a ban “now,” not later. They argue that the only way to protect democracy is to ban the party from participating in democracy. pic.twitter.com/GSN3ZgfK0F

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 21, 2024

Wanderwitz is attempting to capitalize on the arrest of three individuals from the Saxon Separatists group who had links to the AfD, with Wanderwitz claiming that the group has connections to right-wing terrorism. The AfD has indicated that it has no ties to the Saxon Separatists and disavows the group.

Notably, many on the left have open connections to left-wing extremist groups, and even the country’s current interior minister, Nancy Faeser, wrote for Antifa Magazine shortly before she won her position, a group known to be funded by a government-designated left-wing extremist group.

Die AfD ist eine rechtsextreme Partei, eine große Gefahr für unser Land, unsere freiheitliche demokratische Grundordnung. Wir wollen, dass das Bundesverfassungsgericht ihre Verfassungstreue prüfen kann. Dafür arbeiten wir im Bundestag. Hier unser Antrag: https://t.co/9qPK5QJfw5

— Marco Wanderwitz 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@wanderwitz) October 17, 2024

Politicians in Germany have been split on the issue. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is allegedly no longer fundamentally opposed to a ban, but claims he wants to observe new developments. The FDP, which was once against the move, is now moving closer to a ban. Notably, both parties stand to gain voters from the rival AfD should a ban move forward.

🇩🇪❌ Will X be banned in Germany?

“With his call to ban X, Mr. Hofreiter of the Greens has shown the ugly face of the totalitarian spirit that dominates you.”

– Alice Weidel, AfD party co-leader pic.twitter.com/JF5X7dgQNo

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 15, 2024

The Greens, meanwhile, want a gradual process towards a ban, including consulting with legal experts.

Wanderwitz himself sees a short window for a ban to come about, at least while he is leading the charge. He is set to retire from politics, which means by the time the next government is voted in, he will no longer be a part of it.

🇩🇪‼️German lawmakers file a motion to BAN the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in order “save democracy.”

🔺The AfD is the second most popular party in the country and has surged in the polls over its stance against mass immigration.

🔺 The establishment parties are worried… pic.twitter.com/i48WQVQapq

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 1, 2024

No matter what happens, a ban on the AfD could take years. Any final ban would have to be approved by the Federal Constitutional Court, and the burden for such a ban is supposed to be very high. Notably, the AfD party routinely polls between 16 and 20 percent of the national vote, and is the second most popular party in the nation. The courts have never banned such a popular party, setting the stage for a potential national crisis should the motion go through.

Another wild card in a potential AfD ban is Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Musk has come out as a quasi-supporter of the party on his X platform. Any move on democratic backsliding in Germany, including a ban on a major opposition party, could result in U.S. sanctions and increased tensions with a Trump-led United States.

Why is there such a negative reaction from some about AfD?

They keep saying “far right”, but the policies of AfD that I’ve read about don’t sound extremist. Maybe I’m missing something.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 9, 2024

Just last week, Musk called Chancellor Olaf Scholz a “fool,” in the latest sign that tensions are heating up between the new American power bloc and the left-liberal EU elite.

Read more here…

Although it’s Veterans’ Day today, with US bond markets closed (equities are open), it’s another important week with US CPI (Wednesday) the focal point, even though many will argue that the year is now basically over with the biggest events in the rearview mirror. Indeed, as DB’s Jim reid writes, US data may not be as heavily scrutinized as usual at the moment as with the Trump victory, the market might conclude that there may be changes in animal spirits in the near-term and policy in the medium-term. On this, any clues on Trump’s appointments may be market moving. Case in point the Dollar’s rise immediately after the FT reported late Friday afternoon UK time that Robert Lighthizer would be asked to be the US Trade Representative in the new administration. Given how central he’s been to Trump’s views on trade it was surprising that the market was surprised. However there has been no confirmation of this appointment and other wires have suggested no such approach has been made.

Having said that US data might not be the most important events of the week, outside of CPI the US highlights are the Fed’s senior loan officers survey (SLOOS) tomorrow, PPI on Thursday and retail sales, on Friday. There are a lot of Fed speakers so their view of policy post the election will be interesting after Powell navigated this uncertainty well last week. Powell himself speaks again on Thursday.

Internationally the key events will be UK employment and the German ZEW tomorrow, Japanese and Eurozone GDP alongside the ECB account of the October meeting on Thursday, and China’s main monthly data dump on Friday. See the full week ahead in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

In terms of US CPI, DB’s economists suggest that softer energy prices should lead headline CPI (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.18% previously) to be weaker than core (+0.26% vs. +0.31%) leading to a YoY rate that picks up a tenth in the headline to 2.5% but with core staying steady at 3.3% even if the 6-month rate would dip a tenth to 2.5%. Remember though that in the last several years the second half has been more seasonally favorable to inflation so it’s possible we’re coming towards the end of that help.

For context, and due to the election result, DB’s economists are leaning towards core PCE inflation being upgraded from 2.2% in 2025 to around 2.5% and by around 0.5pp to 2.5% in 2026 as tariffs kick in. For growth the 2025 upgrade is likely to be from 2.2% to 2.5-2.75% but with 2026 downgraded a few tenths to 2% as tariffs offset the fiscal boosts. So the outlook becomes more complicated from here with most uncertainty around how aggressive the tariff regime will be. As a result, DB’s economists believe now that the Fed may not be able to cut below 4%. Back in mid-September Dec 2025 Fed futures contracts were pricing in 2.78% so this is yet another example (around the 8th time) in this cycle where the market has got far, far too optimistic in terms of how much the Fed will be able to cut rates.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 11

• Data: Japan October Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, Denmark and Norway October CPI
• Earnings: Live Nation Entertainment, Salzgitter

Tuesday November 12

• Data: US October NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, UK September average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, October jobless claims change, Japan October machine tool orders, PPI, Germany November Zew survey, September current account balance, Eurozone November Zew survey, Canada September building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s SLOOS, Waller, Barkin and Harker speak, ECB’s Rehn, Centeno and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Home Depot, AstraZeneca, Shopify, Spotify, Tokyo Electron, Occidental Petroleum, Infineon, Bayer, Vodafone

Wednesday November 13

• Data: US October CPI, monthly budget statement
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan, Musalem and Schmid speak, BoE’s Mann speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Allianz, Siemens Energy, RWE

Thursday November 14

• Data: US October PPI, initial jobless claims, UK October RICS house price balance, Japan Q3 GDP, Eurozone Q3 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Powell, Barkin and Williams speak, ECB’s account of the October meeting, Schnabel and Guindos speak, BoE’s Bailey speaks
• Earnings: Walt Disney, Siemens, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, JD.com, Burberry

Friday November 15

• Data: US November Empire manufacturing index, October retail sales, industrial production, import and export price index, capacity utilisation, September business inventories, China October retail sales, industrial production, property investment, new home prices, UK September monthly GDP, Japan September Tertiary industry index, capacity utilisation, Germany October wholesale price index, Italy September general government debt, trade balance, Canada September manufacturing sales, October existing home sales, European Commission Economic Forecasts
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Alibaba

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the retail sales report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including speeches by Chair Powell and New York Fed President Williams on Thursday.

Monday, November 11

• Veterans Day. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be open. SIFMA recommends that bond markets remain closed.

Tuesday, November 12

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, October (consensus 92.0, last 91.5)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech and take part in a moderated Q&A at the 2024 Clearing House Annual Conference. Text is expected. On October 14th, before the release of the October employment report, Waller noted that he expects “payroll gains to moderate from their current pace but continue at a solid rate,” noting that “the unemployment rate may drift a bit higher but is likely to remain quite low in historical terms.”
• 10:15 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech at an event in Baltimore. Text and Q&A are expected. On October 10th, Barkin noted that, while he “wouldn’t declare victory” on inflation, “we’re definitely headed in the right direction.” He characterized the labor market as a “low hiring, low firing environment” and noted that “unit labor costs are not driving inflationary pressures.”
• 02:00 PM Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released
• 02:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated conversation on Yahoo Finance. On October 21st, Kashkari said he expected “some more, modest cuts over the next several quarters to get to something around neutral, but it’s going to depend on the data.” Kashkari also noted that the economy had “continued to perform quite well” despite the FOMC’s interest rate increases since 2022, which he said made him “wonder [whether] maybe the neutral rate that balances everything out is higher than it was before the pandemic.”
• 05:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will deliver a speech on fintech, artificial intelligence, and the changing financial landscape at an event hosted by Carnegie Mellon University. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 05:30 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak to Salisbury-Wicomico Economic Development. He is expected to repeat his speech from earlier that day. Audience Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, November 13

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), October (GS +0.19%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), October (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), October (GS +2.43%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.4%); Core CPI (YoY), October (GS +3.30%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.3%): We estimate a 0.31% increase in October core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.3%. Our forecast reflects an increase in used car prices (+2.5%) reflecting a rebound in auction prices, another increase in airfares (+1.0%) reflecting a slight boost from residual seasonality and strong pricing trends, and another firm increase in the car insurance category (+0.5%) based on continued—albeit decelerating—increases in premiums in our online dataset. We expect roughly unchanged shelter components (OER +0.33%, primary rent +0.28%). The source data for the health insurance component is updated semiannually with the April and October reports. After swinging sharply between 2019-2023, methodological updates implemented last year have since kept health insurance inflation rangebound, and we expect similarly dampened readings over the next six months (we forecast -0.1% for October). We estimate a 0.19% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.2%) but lower energy prices (-1.3%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in October. We will update our core PCE forecast after the CPI is released and again after the PPI is released.
• 09:45 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver opening remarks at an energy conference hosted by the Dallas and Kansas City Feds. Text is expected. On October 9th, Logan noted that the risks that aggregate demand proves stronger than expected or financial conditions boost demand beyond what the economy can sustain “suggest the FOMC should not rush to reduce the fed funds target to a “normal” or “neutral” level but rather should proceed gradually while monitoring the behavior of financial conditions, consumption, wages and prices.”
• 01:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Memphis. Text and Q&A are expected. On October 7th, Musalem noted that he saw “the costs of easing too much too soon as greater than the costs of easing too little too late.”
• 01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will deliver a speech at an energy conference hosted by the Dallas and Kansas City Feds. Text is expected. On October 21st, Schmid noted that “while the loosening of the labor market has led to some concern that the economy is on shaky ground, my read is that we are seeing a normalization rather than a significant deterioration of conditions.” He also said that he thought “interest rates could settle well above the levels we saw in the decade before the pandemic.”

Thursday, November 14

• 07:00 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on central bank independence and the economic outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association in Uruguay. Text and audience and moderated Q&A are expected. On October 8th, Governor Kugler noted that, while she believed “the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2 percent,” she nevertheless supported “shifting attention to the maximum employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate.”
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%);
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 9 (GS 220k, consensus 223k, last 221k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 2 (last 1,892k)
• 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a discussion with Jodie McLean, chair of the Richmond Fed’s board of directors and secretary of the Real Estate Roundtable board of directors. Q&A is expected.
• 03:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed, the Dallas Regional Chamber, and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort-Worth. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. At the press conference following the November FOMC meeting, Chair Powell did not provide guidance about the December meeting and made it clear that the FOMC will not respond until it has greater clarity, saying “We don’t guess, we don’t speculate, and we don’t assume.” He said twice that the labor market is continuing to cool and the FOMC does not want further cooling, which we see as consistent with our view that Fed officials will want to see several months of labor market stabilization before slowing the pace.
• 04:15 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech titled “Making Missing Markets” at an event hosted by the New York Fed. Text is expected. On October 10th, Williams noted that “a wide range of metrics … indicate that the very tight labor market of the past few years has now returned to more normal conditions and is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressures going forward” and said he expected “the unemployment rate to edge up from its current level of about 4 percent to around 4-1/4 percent at the end of this year and stay around that level next year.” Williams also said that “the data paint a picture of an economy that has returned to balance,” and that the FOMC should therefore “continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.”

Friday, November 15

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, November (consensus flat, last -11.9)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%)l Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%): We estimate core retail sales expanded 0.3% in October (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting healthy growth in measures of card spending. We estimate a 0.4% increase in headline retail sales, reflecting lower gasoline prices but higher auto sales.
• 08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus -0.1%, last -0.4%); Export price index, October (consensus -0.1%, last -0.7%)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS -0.4%, consensus -0.3%, last -0.3%); Manufacturing production, October (GS -0.5%, consensus -0.5%, last -0.4%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 77.1%, consensus 77.1%, last 77.5%): We estimate industrial production declined 0.3%, reflecting weak natural gas and mining production and a drag from recent hurricanes. We estimate capacity utilization declined to 77.1%.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Here’s another one you can add to the left’s ever-growing list of ‘do as I say, not as I do’.

A senior COP29 official in Azerbaijan reportedly used his role as heading up the fight on climate change…to secure meetings with potential investors in the country’s oil and gas sectors.

Energy production drives 60% of Azerbaijan’s economy. Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and COP29 chief, was covertly recorded discussing investment opportunities in the state-owned SOCAR, according to PJ Media.

“SOCAR Trading is trading oil and gas all over the world, including in Asia. To me, these are the possibilities to explore. But in any case this is something that you need to be talking to SOCAR, and I would be happy to create a contact between yourself and them,” he was caught on tape saying. 

He added: “We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed.”

The PJ Media report says that SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, reportedly responded to a fake investment group, indicating interest in meeting, according to Global Witness.

In the meeting, COP29 head and Azerbaijan’s Deputy Energy Minister Elnur Soltanov discussed the event’s goals, stating that COP aims to “solve the climate crisis” by “transitioning away from hydrocarbons.”

Still, he expressed openness to oil and gas investments, pointing to Azerbaijan’s gas expansion plans and new pipeline infrastructure. This marks the second year a petro-state has used its COP presidency to promote fossil fuel interests, raising questions for the UN on oversight.

Simon Roach from Global Witness called it “endemic corruption on a planetary scale,” emphasizing that COP standards, set by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, strictly prohibit such conflicts of interest.

COP29 is likely to see less high-profile attendance, as leaders like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plan to skip.

Scholz faces a political crisis at home, while others may anticipate waning support for climate initiatives, especially with climate skeptic Donald Trump’s political resurgence.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Executive order drafts are being prepared. Here’s five things to discuss.

Five Things

1. Immigration: Trump has said he would reimplement on day one his “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their cases are processed by U.S. immigration courts.

2. The Wall: He has also said he would resume construction of the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border—something he repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for failing to continue.

3. Pardons: Fire Jack Smith and pardon Jan. 6 offenders. Trump has called the people facing charges hostages and political prisoners.

4. Climate: Trump has said that he will sign an executive order once again withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, the international treaty which implements the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. President Biden on his first day in office had brought the U.S. back into the Obama-era accord after Trump had pulled out of it in 2019. Officials close to Trump said the order has been drafted and will be ready for Trump to sign on his first day in office.

5. Transgender Student Protections: In April, the Biden administration unveiled a final set of changes to Title IX to cover discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity for the first time. Trump has vowed to revoke such protections for transgender students the day he takes office.

The above list is from the Wall Street Journal article What Trump Can—and Can’t—Do on Day One.

I agree with most of those, at least partially.

1: I am fine with remain in Mexico but we do need faster decisions on an outcome.

2: If the wall was funded, then it can continue. If not, Trump can’t do that on day one.

3: I strongly disagree with blanket pardons, but I am OK with pardons for anyone who was totally peaceful (no destruction of property or violent actions). My guess is Trump will go way overboard.

4: Go for it. End the nonsense.

5: No new protections were ever needed in the first place. Adding them made a huge mess of things with absurd state actions and interpretations.

Here are some other ideas from the article

Mass Deportations

Trump has vowed to implement “the largest deportation program in American history” as soon as he takes office. Although such a massive logistical feat would likely take longer to carry out, officials familiar with his planning said it is likely he will sign a pre-drafted executive order when he takes office ordering the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies to deport undocumented migrants.

Mass deportations would be a huge mistake, especially for those here for over two years and is working, those with citizen spouses, and those with citizen children.

But please deport the criminals. Start there, then intelligently think about how to proceed.

Otherwise, many states will not go along.

Ending Birthright Citizenship

Trump has also said he would use executive action on his first day in office to put a stop to granting birthright citizenship to children born to anyone who entered the U.S. illegally. This is likely to face legal challenges.

We can debate the merits of the idea, but there would be a court challenge and Trump would lose.

The Constitution says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

That seems clear to me. The phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” refers the children of foreign diplomats and invading foreign enemies.

Vox has an Excellent Discussion of Birthright Citizenship.

Trump would be wise to not step into this mess.

Ukraine and Israel

Trump has vowed to take several measures aimed at putting what he sees as America’s interests first and has vowed to end conflicts around the world, including in Ukraine and the Middle East, before he takes office. Among them, he has said he would give priority to American national security and economic interests at home over paying billions to support allies abroad, and would impose steep tariffs on imports to stimulate domestic job creation.

Trump may have luck encouraging Ukraine, which has been losing ground, to the negotiating table, but Russia’s Vladimir Putin—as well as Hamas and Israel—have shown no signs they want to end the fighting in their respective conflicts.

Ukraine and Israel are not day one issues that can be addressed by executive order.

Trump has also said that he would demand the resignation of any general involved in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by “noon on Inauguration Day.”

Demanding resignation is doable, but Firing is Complicated, says Lawfire.

The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

The most disturbing day one action would be blanket deportations. I strongly disagree. But that won’t be day one regardless.

I discussed blanket deportations and the Dignity Act in The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

Please click on the link and play the interview with Republican Florida rep. Maria Salazar. 

I endorse the bipartisan Dignity Act she sponsored. It is exceptionally balanced and well thought out. But it’s not what Trump promised.

Liberals have spent the last five days following Trump’s victory last Wednesday with blood pressure levels through the roof—many having complete meltdowns on social media, and some even plotting their exit to Canada. 

The good news is that while President-elect Trump heads to the White House in January, those infected by the woke mind virus are planning their exit…

Kamala Harris supporters are moving to Canada

🤣🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Yhz4VqAE8i

— TONY™ (@TONYxTWO) November 10, 2024

… there is another story unfolding of inbound migration to America, beginning with Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt, who will now live in the US after a Trump victory. 

On Sunday, Pratt wrote on LinkedIn:

Honoured to be granted my Green Card for permanent USA residency last month.

We decided it was time to live in America because:

1. My family are all US citizens.

2. Over the past 30 years we have invested to build 70 factories in America, creating 12,000 well-paying American manufacturing jobs.

3. I will remain Chairman of Visy Australia, and will be returning to Australia on a regular basis.

Data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows Pratt has a net worth of about $12.3 billion, ranking him 209th on the list and sixth in Australia.

He’s also a member of Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago Club.

Exchanging liberals experiencing mental health crises for businessmen who know how to make this nation great again—now that’s a fair trade.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Veteran leftist political strategist James Carville says that the stand out moment when Kamala Harris cemented her historic loss to president elect Donald Trump was when she couldn’t think of a single thing she’d do different to Joe Biden.

Harris first made the comment while appearing on The View, something that should’ve been a walk in the park.

“There is not a thing that comes to mind. And I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had an impact,” she stated at the time.

But it was even worse than this sounds.

Harris was also asked “What do you think would be the biggest specific difference between your presidency and a Biden presidency?”

Harris responded, “We’re obviously two different people.”

“If anything, would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?”

KAMALA: “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”

🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/kvS3zkMc4p

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 8, 2024

Carville, the former lead strategist in Bill Clinton’s winning 1992 Presidential campaign, noted “When we go back and history unearths this, it’s going to be right there on the View.”

“Sunny Hostin, Houston, whatever asked the question. That’s the most devastating answer you can imagine,” he added.

James Carville on how Sunny Hostin ended Kamala Harris’ campaign:
“When we go back and history unearths this, it’s going to be right there on the View.
Sunny Hostin, Houston, whatever asked the question. That’s the most devastating answer you can imagine.”

Thank you Sunny Hostin… pic.twitter.com/rtiDCzSECV

— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) November 8, 2024

It’s still astounding that she did not have an answer prepared to this completely basic softball question?

Sunny Hostin thought she was giving Harris the easiest question ever but Harris was such a bad candidate she failed it.

But I think this incident will lead to lefties being even more scripted and devious in providing ?s ahead of time and working together on answers https://t.co/ZLkSwNQLhx

— Ashe Short (@AsheSchow) November 8, 2024

The remarkable thing is that she was repeatedly asked the same question in the weeks after this and STILL couldn’t give an answer.

.@PeterAlexander: What is one policy you would have done differently over these last three and a half years than president Biden?

Harris: “To be very candid with you, even including Mike Pence, vice presidents are not critical of their presidents. I think that really in terms of… pic.twitter.com/IRuDvEdFie

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 18, 2024

Let’s not forget, the Democratic Party made a monumental error in running with cackles. 

I’ve always thought Carville was a nut case, but he nails this moment… what he doesn’t say is they fielded the worst candidate in 150 years or more.. https://t.co/QG3K2rMB5P

— TheRifleman (@TheRifleman11) November 9, 2024

They didn’t have much choice, however after Biden screwed them over.

The most delicious thing about this might be the total meltdown that the screeching witches on The View engaged in once the results were in.

We’d like to thank the women of @theview, and — in particular — @sunny for the role they played helping elect @realDonaldTrump by such a decisive margin. https://t.co/KqNQQOQKLt

— Arlington GOP (@goparlington) November 9, 2024

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Mark Cuban was one of Kamala Harris’ most vocal supporters, posting tweets expressing his admiration for Harris-Walz while denouncing Trump and his supporters. After Trump’s presidential election victory, Cuban appears to have scrubbed posts on the ‘free speech’ social media platform, though he claims this is just regular activity.

“Mark Cuban is apparently deleting a bunch of his pro-Kamala posts,” Libs of TikTok said…

Mark Cuban is apparently deleting a bunch of his pro-Kamala posts. What’s going on @mcuban?? pic.twitter.com/JXLuYLNplr

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 10, 2024

X user Kevin Dalton said Cuban’s account conducted a “pretty serious purge of posts on the 7th.” 

Definitely a pretty serious purge of posts on the 7th pic.twitter.com/1YKVhNWa8C

— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) November 11, 2024

Clown World said, “Mark Cuban just scrubbed every post he ever made about Kamala.” 

Mark Cuban just scrubbed every post he ever made about Kamala 😂 pic.twitter.com/xHybbr14c1

— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) November 11, 2024

Cuban then responded to Libs of TikTok’s post, “I’ve always gone back and deleted tweets.  For years.  Same with 2020 election. 2016 election. Same with other stuff.  You can use the wayback machine if you really want to see them.” 

I’ve always gone back and deleted tweets. For years. Same with 2020 election. 2016 election. Same with other stuff. You can use the wayback machine if you really want to see them

— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) November 10, 2024

Libs of TikTok responded with: “Thank for clarifying. Was this one of your deleted tweets? Why delete it?” 

CNBC’s Joe Kernen couldn’t stop laughing about the whole situation, which he said, “LoL.” 

lol

— Joe Kernen (@JoeSquawk) November 10, 2024

Let’s remind readers that Cuban enthusiastically picked up his liberal pom-poms in the months before the election, cheering across X and in corporate media about how fantastic the Harris-Walz campaign was… And he also bashed Trump supporters. 

DISGUSTING: Top Kamala surrogate Mark Cuban says no “strong, intelligent women” support President Trump.

They’re now openly attacking the millions of strong, intelligent women fighting alongside President Trump every day to Make America Great Again.

Will @KamalaHQ disavow? pic.twitter.com/5sPihbzJ8t

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 31, 2024

Then, in the days before the election… (was this the point when Harris’ team ran out of money? – after blowing a billion dollars…): 

🚨🚨🚨

BREAKING : The Kamala Harris campaign has told Mark Cuban to stop doing interviews on behalf of the Harris Campaign. pic.twitter.com/3tLhsyRVSp

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) November 1, 2024

Why did Cuban nuke his credibility in backing one of the worst political campaigns in a generation? After all, Trump secured 312 electoral votes, the popular vote, the Senate, and a majority in the House.

Also, the nation shifted heavily towards the right. 

If Cuban plots a future presidential run, X users won’t forget this meme…

Come on, Mark, you’re smarter than this.

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

“You can never go home again” rings true for combat veterans, especially the part of them that can never forget.

People have called war many things—cruel and tragic, the final court of appeals, a racket, and the most noble thing people can do for their country. It depends on how you look at it.

Lysander Caligo, 39, a former U.S. Marine from Mesa, Arizona, saw the beauty and ugliness of the battlefield in Afghanistan in the early 2000s.

Lysander Caligo, a former U.S. Marine who served in Afghanistan, stands behind a mesh barrier at a restaurant in Mesa, Ariz., on Nov. 3, 2024. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

He was a counterintelligence specialist with the Third Battalion, Seventh Marines, and he hunted high-value targets for eight months before his discharge.

Though Caligo, the man, would return to civilian life, the boy in him would never see home again.

Sitting at a restaurant table, Caligo told The Epoch Times that Afghanistan shattered his rose-colored glasses.

On his right bicep is a tattoo of Che Guevara, the Argentine Marxist revolutionary.

He said it is a long story how he got the tattoo, and he is not a fan of communism. The short version is that the tattoo is a constant reminder of the uncertain nature of war, and of a high-value Taliban target—the one who eluded him—who used Guevara’s tactics to significant effect.

“We take violence and aggression and death as something very personal,” Caligo said. “It’s an offense to us—it’s an offense to our senses. It’s an offense to our lives.”

But the reality on the battlefield is different.

“The reality is that death and war are very impersonal. You see that very quickly. If you don’t, you end up having mental issues,” he said.

‘War Is Human Nature’

Caligo sees conflict as both a shock to the system and a necessity—a perpetual state of human existence written into the human genome.

Soldiers go to war and are injured. Soldiers die. If they are lucky, they will go home intact. There is no room for “boyish idealism,” Caligo said.

Even though his job as a soldier demanded violence, his conscience is clean.

“I never did anything so terrible that I had to question myself morally,” Caligo said.

“I could stop myself in those moments and think about how they would impact me in the future and how my future self would look at me. I’ve had those moments. … I’m lucky there.”

Caligo said it was more direct and personal to kill with a sword or spear in ancient times, compared to using today’s bullets, drone strikes, or bombs. He learned that firsthand when he met enemy insurgents hiding in plain sight or as he walked through a field or along the roadside.

“Bombs are the worst things because bombs were so [expletive] scary. You were fearful every step you took,” he said.

“Imagine taking every step and thinking, ‘I’m either going to be disfigured or badly injured.’ The biggest fear was losing limbs. Then there were the concussions,” traumatic brain injury, and post-traumatic stress that followed, he said.

U.S. Marines direct a Chinook helicopter arriving to pick up a container with supplies at Forward Operating Base Edi in the Helmand Province of southern Afghanistan on June 9, 2011. Anja Niedringhaus/AP Photo

The former staff sergeant can’t place an exact number on the people he aimed his rifle at during missions.

“But the boy inside me died. The rose-colored way of looking at the world through an ideological lens died—and I’m glad,” he said.

“You learn your base roots as a human being … that it’s there and it’s always going to be there.”

One of the most challenging parts of coming home for Caligo was seeing how much he had changed compared to everyone else.

Band of Brothers

His experience in war surprised him; it was not only about life or death, dog-eat-dog, or black-or-white survival in the desert. “I hate to say it—it was beautiful,” he said.

Most people never get to experience the closeness that develops between combat soldiers, who live every day and die together.

“It’s you and your bros,” Caligo said. “It’s about fighting and eating and cleaning your weapon and doing it all over again.”

U.S. Army flight medic SGT Tyrone Jordan (R) of Dustoff Task Force Shadow, 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, helps Marines carry a wounded Afghani man to a MEDEVAC helicopter near Marjah, Afghanistan, on Sept. 29, 2010. Scott Olson/Getty Images

“We loved it. Not like it was any sadistic thing. It’s just that it was real. Then, you come back to this illusion. You start to see how fake and phony people are—dressing in the latest fashions, buying furniture, buying vehicles, buying X, Y, Z, to try to fit in or be someone else.”

It’s reality—raw and painful, but with meaning and purpose—in the field of combat, he said. You’re there for your fellow soldier.

Sam, 55, a former Marine who lives in eastern Arizona, served in the Seventh Marine Regiment, First Battalion, during Operation Desert Storm from 1990 to 1991. He received a medal for exemplary conduct in battle.

“The Marine Corps is great at treating you like a man and holding you accountable for your [actions],” Sam, who asked not to use his surname, told The Epoch Times.

“When you come back and there’s civilians around you, you look at everybody differently—in a bad way.

A long line of vehicles, including destroyed Iraqi Army Russian-made T-62 tanks and trucks, stand abandoned by fleeing Iraqi troops on the outskirts of Kuwait City on March 1, 1991. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990, led to the Gulf War, which began Jan. 16, 1991. Pascal Guyot/Getty Images

“There were no happy pills or things like that.”

Sam, like Caligo, said that combat made him grow up quickly.

Into the Lion’s Den

The day ended with poor visibility in late February 1991, and Sam radioed ahead after spotting an Iraqi tank dug in and firing at his unit near al Jabbar.

The Marine lance corporal destroyed the tank with one anti-tank missile shot to the front turret.

He engaged an enemy personnel carrier and destroyed it on the second day of fighting. He identified an enemy platoon on the third day of battle and was able to destroy multiple vehicles using three BGM-71 TOW missiles.

Sam received a Navy commendation medal for his “exemplary and highly professional conduct” and is humble about it.

“There are lots of guys who did more than I did,” he said.

“It was an interesting transition coming back. I’m super glad I did the Marine Corps. It was the best thing I ever did. The second best thing was getting out, but that’s just me.”

The war in the Persian Gulf killed 219 Americans, while the war on terror killed 7,000 soldiers and 8,000 contractors.

Marsha Vance, a member of American Legion Post 30 in Springerville, Ariz., stands outside the hall on Nov. 9, 2024. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Marsha Vance, from Springerville, Arizona, is the daughter of the late Wallace Tucker, who served as an Air Force sharpshooter in Vietnam from 1966 to 1969.

“He didn’t really want to talk about it,” said Vance, a member of American Legion Post 30 in Springerville. “He didn’t want to do it. He carried those memories all those years.”

During the eight-year U.S. military intervention in Vietnam, more than 58,000 men and women in uniform died.

In Vietnam, Tucker left his innocence behind.

The Vietnam Veterans Monument at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on March 29, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“He did have some poems he wrote about Vietnam—about seeing the things a human being should never see and do to another human being and that he never should have done,” Vance said.

She cries when she thinks about her father and the terrible things he went through, and how he dealt with it until he died from Agent Orange complications at age 68.

“He had to grow up fast. He had to be quick and make split-second decisions. It was either him or them,” Vance said. “It was something he never recovered from completely.

“There are certain things he wouldn’t talk about, and I wouldn’t push it because I knew it would trigger him.”

Her father lies buried in the National Memorial Cemetery of Arizona in Phoenix.

Never the Same

Caligo feels that he has mostly transitioned back into society since he left the military. An avid fitness and Brazilian jiujitsu enthusiast, he recently opened a health club, Deep End Scottsdale.

“The beauty of going to war,” Caligo said, is figuratively “killing the boy” inside.

“You went into the abyss. You’re not supposed to come back out the same person,” he said.