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All States Are Empires Of Lies

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All States Are Empires Of Lies

By Thomas DiLorenzo of The Mises Institute. This article is a version of a speech delivered at the 2024 Mises Institute Supporters Summit.

“Most economists are political apologists masquerading as economists,” wrote Doug Casey in one of his columns.

“They prescribe the way they would like the world to work and tailor theories to help politicians demonstrate the virtue and necessity of their quest for power.”

Moreover, wrote Casey, “The field of economics has been turned into the handmaiden of government in order to give a scientific justification for things the government wants to do.”

This of course is not a new development. Ludwig von Mises was calling the universities of his day “nurseries of socialism” but, thankfully, there is always a remnant of students who resist the statist brainwashing. The above quote about concocted “scientific” justifications for interventionism and socialism, by the way, sounds like a precise definition of Keynes’s General Theory. 

Casey’s sound advice is that to be a good citizen one needs to “become your own economist.” Don’t rely on the state’s mouthpieces in the “media” or even academe for your economic knowledge. Educate yourself to some degree; it doesn’t take a university degree. Indeed, everything we do at the Mises Institute is geared toward helping anyone anywhere to become their own economist (preferably Austrian School and not Keynesian or Post Keynesian!) and avoid being bamboozled by the state and its court historian economists. 

Mises never joined the American Economic Association, the association of academic economists founded in the 1880s. The association’s founding document provides a clue as to why. “The state is an educational and ethical agency whose positive aid is an indispensable condition of human progress,” the document purred. “The doctrine of laissez faire,” on the other hand, “is unsafe in politics and unsound in morals,” said the statist moral scolds who founded the American Economic Association.

There are exceptions, the Austrian School economists being the most prominent, but the majority of academic economists view themselves as advisors or potential advisors to the state. They are Rothbard’s “court historians” with degrees in economics instead of history. The role that they serve is the same as all “intellectuals” in our almost 100 percent state-funded universities. As Rothbard put it: “The majority [of the electorate] must be persuaded by ideology that their government is good, wise, and at least inevitable. Promoting this ideology . . . is the vital task of the ‘intellectuals.’” In return, the “intellectuals” are given government jobs, grants, placement at prestigious universities, book deals, and myriad other political payoffs. (Mises wrote that history, law, and economics are the disciplines most widely used to bamboozle the public about the supposedly good, wise, and inevitable state).

Take the Fed – please (as Rodney Dangerfield would say). Economist Larry White published a journal article several years ago that revealed that about 75 percent of all articles published in academic economic journals on the subject of monetary policy are published by economists who are in some way associated with the Fed. As Milton Friedman once said, “If you want a career as a monetary economist it is best not to criticize the major employer in your field.” And so they do not. 

If there is ever any criticism it is always constructive criticism about how to supposedly become even better at central planning. Most Americans are rationally ignorant of the Fed, and what little they do know about it is overwhelmingly shaped by the Fed’s “court historians,” especially the ones who teach economics at colleges and universities. The Austrian economists (but not all of them) are the only ones to challenge the existence of the Fed and call for its abolition. 

In addition to being the federal government’s legalized counterfeiting arm, the Fed is also another appendage of the government’s massive propaganda apparatus. The laughingly labeled “independent” Fed’s research, according to economist Emre Kuvvet writing in The Independent Review, increasingly focuses on “climate change, gender, race, and inequality” – the “woke” political agenda of the Democrat party. The one true statement that Joe Biden made as president was “It’s not Milton Friedman’s Fed anymore.”

The New York Fed has always been considered to be the most powerful and influential of all the Fed branches. Its homepage defines its mission as a “desire to root out the intolerable inequities and injustice grounded in systemic racism . . . steadfast in our commitment to work for a more equitable economy and society.” A clearer definition of socialism would be hard to find.

Kuvvet found that of all the employees of the Fed’s Board of Governors there are 97 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

“Leadership positions” on the Board consist of 45 Democrats and 1 Republican. As I said, it’s just another D.C. government propaganda mill. 

Some Examples of the Empire of Economic Lies

A typical introductory economics textbook devotes most space to endless stories of “market failure” (free-rider problems, externalities, monopoly and oligopoly, monopolistic competition, asymmetric information, and on and on), and almost nothing about entrepreneurship, the cornerstone of capitalism. 

It wasn’t always like that. When the first federal antitrust law was passed in 1890 (the Sherman Antitrust Act) the entire economics profession, which was very small at the time, opposed then new law as being inherently incompatible with competition, as Jack High and I proved by quoting all of them in a July 1988 Economic Inquiry article. They all viewed competition like the Austrian economists always have – as a dynamic, rivalrous process of discovery and entrepreneurship, and thought that antitrust law could only disrupt that process and distort markets.

By the 1930s a new and more “scientific-sounding” theory of “perfect” competition had been invented, which asserted that competitive perfection required all homogenous products and prices in an industry, perfect information in the minds of buyers and sellers, costless entry into and exit from industry, an “many” firms, whatever that might mean.

For the next half century and more, economists would spin thousands o tall tales about how the real world fell short of this “perfection,” defined as market failure, and prescribed regulation, control, nationalization, or regimentation by presumably wise and, well, perfect politicians and bureaucrats. UCLA economist Harold Demsetz labeled this dishonest method of analysis “the Nirvana fallacy”: Comparing the real world to an unachievable never never land of Nirvana. As F.A. Hayek once described it, “In perfect competition there is no competition.” That is, there could not be product differentiation, price cutting, advertising, research and development, the rise to the top of a few superior-performing firms in an industry – all the ingredients of genuine competition.

Generations of students have also been taught that in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries large-scale production of electricity, water supply, telephone services and other similar products was producing “natural” (i.e., free market) monopolies. Governments then stepped in and legally mandated public utility monopolies, supposedly to be regulated “in the public interest.” I proved this to be yet another falsehood in my paper, “They Myth of Natural Monopoly.” There was vigorous competition in all these industries. They were monopolized by the state, not the free market, with loot-sharing agreements whereby state and local governments would share in the monopoly profits created by their government-mandated monopolies.

Then there’s the Big Lie of the Sherman Antitrust Act which was supposedly needed because of “rampant monopolization” in the 1880s as the industrial revolution proceeded in America. In an article in The International Review of Law and Economics I showed that the industries being accused of monopolization at the time were by far the most competitive, dynamic, price-cutting, innovative, and production-expanding industries in America. The purpose of the Sherman Act was to stifle competition, not to “protect” it. 

One of the most ridiculous things taught to generations of economics students was that because of the free-rider problem the U.S. would be spending far too little on “national defense.” “Efficiency” requires coercive taxation. There are economists who have defended Pentagon corruption and fraud on the basis that it expands defense spending, which is supposedly hindered by that nasty free rider problem. Who on earth would define Pentagon spending as “efficient”? !

It was only in the past ten years that the “mainstream” of the economics profession finally discovered that the massive interventions of the New Deal actually made the Great Depression more severe and longer lasting, something the Austrian economists have said all along. This Big Revelation was made in an article in the prestigious Journal of Political Economy by Professor Lee Ohanian of UCLA, an editor of the American Economic Review at the time. Better late than never.

Nobel prizes in economics have been awarded for many theories of “market failure” that subsequent research proved to be bogus. Janet Yellen’s husband, George Akerloff, was a co-recipient of the award for a paper that, in 1970, predicted that the used car market would soon disappear because of “asymmetric information” between buyers and sellers. He apparently never heard of thirty-day warranties that allow car buyers to determine whether or not they had been sold a “lemon.”

David Card was awarded a Nobel prize for a paper claiming that minimum wage laws do not cause unemployment that was called “deeply flawed” by a National Bureau of Economic Research redo of his study. There are many similar episodes.

Economics students are taught that the root cause of pollution is profit seeking, which ignores the fact that the worst pollution in all the world over the past century, by far, was in the socialist countries of the world in the twentieth century that prohibited private profit seeking. A corollary to the profit-seeking-causes-pollution theory is that wise and benevolent government bureaucrats are needed to solve this problem. This not only ignores political reality, but also ignores how the absence of property rights causes many pollution problems in the first place, and also how entrepreneurs solve many “externality” problems because it is profitable to do so. 

In public finance students are taught that tax “loopholes” are inefficient because they supposedly create “artificial” market distortions. It’s much more efficient, they are taught, to let government bureaucrats spend more of your money. Then there’s the cornerstone of Keynesian economics – the canard of “the paradox of thrift” which asserts that savings reduces consumption, which in turn reduces GDP, which leads to lower savings. This theory has “justified” confiscatory taxation of interest income on savings for decades. 

The intellectual godfather of mainstream economics will probably always be Paul Samuelson, whose Principles of Economics textbook dominated textbook sales for forty years, with almost all other textbooks during that time being imitations of his book. The statist bias that permeated that book and the others like it can be encapsulated by what Samuelson wrote in his 1988 edition – a prediction that by the year 2000 Soviet GDP would be larger than U.S. GDP. 

All of this demonstrates why Austrian economics is more important now than ever. The economics profession has not been immune from the cult of political correctness. In fact, it was politically incorrect before political correctness was cool, as Mises’ comment about how the universities of his day were “nurseries of socialism” shows. Doug Casey was right when he wrote that most economists are political apologists masquerading as economists. Yours Truly recognized this as a college student decades ago, and was blown away by the discovery of Mises and the Austrian School, the writings of which very clearly showed that the Austrians were unique in that they were powerfully devoted to the intellectual search for the truth about how the economic world (and beyond) works, and how governments don’t work, and were not at all interested in being apologists for the plundering class.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 17:30

Dems Float Plan To Push Ailing Justice Sotomayor Off Supreme Court So Biden Can Replace Her Before Trump Is Sworn In

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Dems Float Plan To Push Ailing Justice Sotomayor Off Supreme Court So Biden Can Replace Her Before Trump Is Sworn In

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Democrats are reportedly having serious discussions about mounting a pressure campaign to force ailing Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor to resign so Joe Biden can nominate a replacement before President-Elect Donald Trump is sworn in.

After losing their Senate majority to the GOP, Democrats are concerned that Republicans will be “revving up the old conveyor belt of conservative judicial nominees” as soon President-Elect Trump takes office, Politico reported.

For Democrats, this is a hair-on-fire moment. And though the discourse in the media is presently dominated by recriminations about how this all happened, another arguably more urgent conversation is blowing up largely outside of public view: whether to push for 70-year-old Supreme Court Justice SONIA SOTOMAYOR to step down while Dems still have the power to approve her replacement.

This isn’t simply some flight of fancy happening among progressive activists online. It’s a conversation members of the Senate are actively engaged in.

 

A Democrat senator told Politico that the topic of pushing Sotomayor off the Supreme Court “has come up repeatedly this week in talks with their colleagues.”

These “Beltway speculative conversations,” according to Politico, have inevitably hit roadblocks for two reasons:

(1) It’d be a risky play with the party already trying to figure out how to handle a crowded lame-duck session

(2) no senator seems to be offering to be the person to put his or her neck on their line publicly (or even privately) by pushing for Sotomayor to step aside.

When Democrats first floated the idea of jettisoning Sotomayor last year, they were accused of ableism and racism.

The names of possible replacements have been discussed, including the allegedly “moderate” D.C. Circuit Judge J. Michelle Childs, who was reportedly on Joe Biden’s SCOTUS short list, and has already been vetted.

Another name floated on Friday was none other than Kamala Harris.

On CNN this morning, attorney Bakari Sellers,  a Democrat former member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, suggested that Biden could nominate Harris, giving her a new purpose in life after being vanquished by Trump.

Just as Democrat elders forced Biden to quit his campaign after his disastrous debate with Trump, the party could pressure Sotomayor to step down. Harris, of course, quickly replaced Biden as the presidential candidate and could potentially replace Sotomayor on the Supreme Court if Democrats succeed in their pressure campaign.

Sellers suggested the operation could be pushed through before Trump takes the presidency.

“I think that’s actually a very good plan. I think it’s something that should happen,” he said. “You know, Justice Sotomayor has been a more than able justice. I know that she may be having some personal issues that she contends with while serving on the bench. But, you know, I don’t want Justice Sotomayor to be another Ruth Bader Ginsburg in terms of staying too long.”

The plan is not without certain risks for Democrats.

If Sotomayor agreed to resign, “she can sort of resign conditionally on someone being appointed to replace her,” the Democrat senator told Playbook. “But she can’t resign conditioned on a specific person. What happens if she resigns and the nominee to replace her isn’t confirmed and the next president fills the vacancy?”

Then there’s the abbreviated timeline. Democrats would have to convince her to retire immediately, Biden would have to nominate a successor, they would have to figure out how to bring enough senators on board, dodge whatever obstructions Republicans throw in their way and get a whole floor vote before the new Congress is sworn in. There would be no room for error or delay.

“We would have to have assurances from any shaky senator that they would back a nominee in the lame duck, because what do you do if she announces she’s going to step down and then independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin doesn’t support her and then [Republican Sens.] Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski back off and say they’re not going to support a new nominee?” a senior Democrat told Politico. “Do you just rescind that letter?”

The senator told Politico that the logistics of the operation may well be “insurmountable,” and it might “be better to focus on confirming lower-court judges, filling vacancies Trump can’t later fill himself.”

Sen. Josh Hawley commented on the record Friday: “This is not happening. No way, no how,” he posted on X . “The Senate will not confirm any last-minute Dem Supreme Court nominee between now and January. The next SCOTUS justice will be nominated by Donald J. Trump.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 16:20

Musk Says “Time Is Up For The Warmonger Profiteers” In Nod To Trump Ukraine Peace Plan

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Musk Says “Time Is Up For The Warmonger Profiteers” In Nod To Trump Ukraine Peace Plan

The Wall Street Journal this week reported that President-Elect Donald Trump is being presented with an array of competing proposals from advisers related to his campaign promise to immediately end the war in Ukraine upon entering the White House.

While he’s reportedly yet to approve a specific plan, and much might also depend on his team identifying who will fill the top national security and foreign policy posts in the administration, what’s clear is the Zelensky government will feel the pressure to immediately sit at the negotiating table with Moscow.

The WSJ has revealed that the current options being considered all involve imposing a ‘freeze’ on the war, which to Kiev’s dismay would involve “cementing Russia’s seizure of roughly 20 percent of Ukraine” while imposing a 20-year suspension on Ukraine pursuing NATO membership.

Via Reuters

The front lines in the east “would essentially lock in place” according to the proposed plan which is reportedly attracting most attention within Trump’s team, and this freeze would be enforced by European peacekeepers along an 800-mile demilitarized zone.

Trump officials have told the WSJ that the president-elect is committed to seeing that no American troops are deployed as part of policing this buffer zone; instead the Europeans should shoulder the burden:

Who would police that territory remains unclear, but one adviser said the peacekeeping force wouldn’t involve American troops, nor come from a U.S.-funded international body, such as the United Nations.

“We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team said. “We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.”

The degree to which this plan is actually being mulled and favored by Trump is unclear. Ukraine is likely to object to being forced to give up such a large chunk of what it sees as its legitimate sovereign territory.

“Anyone—no matter how senior in Trump’s circle—who claims to have a different view or more detailed window into his plans on Ukraine simply doesn’t know what he or she is talking about or doesn’t understand that he makes his own calls on national-security issues, many times in the moment, particularly on an issue as central as this,” a former Trump National Security Council aide told WSJ by way of important caveat. 

However, Elon Musk, who was invited by Trump to join in on a phone call with Ukraine’s President Zelensky this week, has suggested the above peace plan is likely top of the list of what’s being considered.

“The senseless killing will end soon. Time is up for the warmonger profiteers,” Musk posted on X in direct response to X commentator Mario Nawfal, who wrote about “Trump’s plan for Ukraine.”

Nawfal in his original post which caught Musk’s attention wrote that Trump “reportedly plans an 800-mile demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine, with British and European troops patrolling the area” – quoting Newsweek. “Under the proposal, Russia would retain its territorial gains, and Ukraine would agree not to join NATO for 20 years,” Nawfal’s post added. 

Another controversial aspect to the plan would be Washington would continue to pump Ukraine full of weapons while declaring it ‘neutral’ regarding NATO. J.D. Vance has previously called for Ukraine being “heavily fortified so the Russians don’t invade again” as part of a future peace process.

But this would probably be especially objected to by the Kremlin, given a stated aim of Putin’s in executing the war is precisely to ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine, and to halt the advance of NATO infrastructure into the former Soviet satellite. Putin might perceive that the West continuing to arm Ukraine for many years to come would just set things up for another major future clash and war in Eastern Europe.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 15:45

US District Court Judge Blocks Illinois Ban On Certain Types Of Rifles, Attachments

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US District Court Judge Blocks Illinois Ban On Certain Types Of Rifles, Attachments

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

A U.S. District Court Judge has permanently enjoined the state of Illinois from enforcing its “Protecting Illinois Communities Act” (PICA), a ban on certain types of semiautomatic rifles and so-called “high capacity” magazines.

In a 168-page ruling, Judge Stephen McGlynn of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Illinois wrote that PICA was “unconstitutional under the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution as applied to the states by the Fourteenth Amendment.” The order is stayed for 30 days.

Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul’s office said it plans to appeal the ruling.

“Although this decision is disappointing, the Protect Illinois Communities Act remains in effect for the next 30 days. The law is an important part of the state’s comprehensive efforts to make communities safe from gun violence,” Raoul’s spokesperson Annie Thompson wrote in an email to The Epoch Times.

“We will continue to defend the law’s constitutionality, as we have in courtrooms throughout Illinois, and plan to appeal the court’s decision.”

Gun rights advocates hailed the ruling as a victory in their fight to preserve the Second Amendment.

“We are gratified that the Court properly found that these bans violate the constitutionally protected rights of Illinois residents and visitors,” Brandon Combs, president of the Firearms Policy Coalition, wrote in a post on X.

“As we clearly showed at trial, PICA fails even under the Seventh Circuit’s misguided test that conflicts with binding Supreme Court precedent.”

The ruling was issued for four lawsuits that had been combined because they covered the same issues. Gun Owners of America (GOA) and the Gun Owners Foundation, and plaintiffs in one of the lawsuits, issued statements celebrating the injunction as a step forward.

“We are thrilled with the victory and for the citizens of Illinois. We the People deserve the right to decide how best to protect ourselves and our loved ones,” Erich Pratt, GOA’s senior vice president, said in a statement on the group’s website.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed PICA into law in January 2023. It outlawed AK-47 and AR-15 style rifles, as well as rifle magazines that hold more than 10 rounds and pistol magazines that hold more than 15 rounds.

The only exceptions to the ban were for “trained professionals,” such as law enforcement officers, and people who owned such guns before January 2024. The law also expanded licensing and permitting regulations.

McGlynn ruled that the Illinois law did not meet the standard set under the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen. In that case, the high court ruled that gun laws must be in accordance with the plain text of the Constitution and comparable to the law in effect at the time the Second Amendment was ratified.

While the state referenced firearms regulations found in English Common law in its argument, McGlynn said it failed to meet the Bruen standard.

“Sadly, there are those who seek to usher in a sort of post-Constitution era where the citizens’ individual rights are only as important as they are convenient to a ruling class,” McGlynn’s decision states.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker gives a COVID-19 update in the Blue Room at the Thompson Center in Chicago on Feb. 9, 2022. Tyler LaRiviere/Chicago Sun-Times via AP

“Seeking ancient laws that may partner well with a present-day infringement on a right proclaimed in the Bill of Rights without reading it in conjunction with the aforementioned history is nonsense.”

The plaintiffs hope the U.S. Supreme Court will agree to hear a similar case from Maryland and settle the question of so-called “assault weapons.”

Plaintiffs in that case, Snope v. Brown, filed a petition for certiorari—a request to be heard—with the high court on Aug. 21. The plaintiffs claim that, like PICA, Maryland’s law unconstitutionally prohibits firearms that are “in common use for lawful purposes.”

In 2013, Maryland adopted the Firearms Safety Act, which bans 45 types of guns, including AR15 and AK47-style rifles and various shotguns “or their copies, regardless of which company produced and manufactured that assault weapon.”

The plaintiffs originally sued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland on Dec. 1, 2020.

Snope v. Brown is the third iteration of the 2020 lawsuit. It is commonly known by its most recent title, Bianchi v. Brown.

“Certiorari is required in this case,” said Adam Kraut, executive director of the Second Amendment Foundation at the time the petition to the Supreme Court was filed, “to correct an increasingly widespread misunderstanding of the Supreme Court precedent, and the Second Amendment, itself. The specific type of firearm in question is commonly owned across the country, placing it well within the scope of the Second Amendment.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 15:10

Israeli Jets Wound Syrian Soldiers In Third Attack This Week

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Israeli Jets Wound Syrian Soldiers In Third Attack This Week

The Saturday overnight hours witnessed another Israeli attack on Syria, which marks at least the third such air raid this week, as part of a stepped up campaign to wage war on the ‘pro-Iran’ axis which includes Damascus and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The new strikes occurred in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib, wounding several soldiers and resulting in destruction of military infrastructure. “At around 00:45 after midnight, the Israeli army launched an air aggression from the direction of southeast Aleppo, targeting a number of sites in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib,” SANA news agency cited a military source as saying.

IAF jet, via Reuters

The UK-based anti-Assad opposition outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said the strikes had targeted military installations where units and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Tehran-backed factions are based.

Israel has been attacking Syria with increased frequency over the last several weeks in connection with the Hezbollah war in south Lebanon, despite widespread acknowledgement that Syria is staying out of events related to the Gaza war.

Many have asked why Assad has stayed relatively quiet in the context of the Gaza war, Hezbollah war, and the Israeli standoff with Iran. One anti-Assad pundit whose name is Hassan Hassan writes the following:

The regime has used the war to restore an older perception, established first by former President Hafez al-Assad, that it alone has the ability to keep Syria’s border with Israel quiet and secure. Rather than emerging as a new front for the Iranian axis, as many have long feared since the country descended into conflict in 2011, Syria is attempting to settle into its old role, while taking steps to gradually return to the regional fold through significant diplomatic and political overtures aimed at once more normalizing its position.

He continues by explaining that Syria is willing do endure smaller hits on infrastructure, without responding, if this ensures Assad government survival:

For Syria, the risks could be substantial and catastrophic if Israel escalates its attacks to include targeting Syria’s top leadership, rather than focusing solely on logistical hubs tied to Iran’s military buildup in the country. The rebels in the north could also take advantage in such a scenario, attacking regime areas after years of near quiet on the front lines, apart from frequent strikes in rebel areas.

It remains that the biggest al-Qaeda stronghold in the world today is centered in Idlib province in northwest Syria, on the border with Turkey – which has played a major part along with other NATO powers like the United States in propping up the hardline Islamic stronghold.

These latest Syria strikes happened alongside other offensives elsewhere in the region. The National reports Saturday that “Dozens were killed in separate overnight air strikes launched by the Israeli military on Lebanon, Syria and Gaza as it intensifies its attack on what it claims to be Hamas and Hezbollah positions.”

“Israel launched 14 air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs late on Friday, shortly after Israel’s military warned residents to leave parts of the area,” the report added, noting that there were an unknown number of casualties.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 14:35

Trump Flips Nevada, Nears Sweep Of Swing States

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Trump Flips Nevada, Nears Sweep Of Swing States

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

President-elect Donald Trump has flipped Nevada, nearly three days after he was declared winner of the 2024 race to the White House.

The race was called at 9:15 p.m. PT on Nov. 8. Trump has now won six of the seven swing states and appears poised to capture them all.

He is leading in Arizona, the final battleground that has not yet been called.

With this win, Trump becomes the first Republican to win the Silver State since 2004.

He lost the 2016 race here to Hillary Clinton by 2.42 percentage points and the 2020 contest to candidate Joe Biden by 2.4 points.

Republicans had reason to believe Trump’s third time would be the charm after posting a robust in-person early vote lead and registration gains since 2020.

While Harris has consistently, but narrowly, led in Nevada polls since succeeding Biden as the Democrat’s nominee in July, two of four late surveys showed Trump suddenly surging as a clear favorite.

An Atlas Intel Nov. 1–2 survey of 782 likely voters had Trump leading by 5.5 percentage points and a Susquehanna Oct. 28–31 poll of 400 likely voters had Trump up by a breakaway 6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a NY Times/Siena Oct. 24 to Nov. 2 survey of 1,010 likely voters had Harris up 2-to-3 percentage points and an Emerson Oct. 29 to Oct. 31 poll of 700 likely voters put her up by 1 percent.

Many media outlets had declared Trump the winner of the battleground state’s six Electoral College votes for days before the AP formally finally did so.

AP called the race with 96 percent of statewide ballots counted. Trump had 724,498 votes, 50.7 percent, to Harris’s 678,399 votes, or 47.4 percent.

He led by 3.3 percent, or by 46,099 votes.

There had been as many as 13,000 mail-in ballots, including more than 11,000 from Clark County, flagged for discrepancies, primarily mismatched signatures. Elections offices had been frantically scrambling to contact affected voters to “cure” or verify those votes by Nov. 9.

Trump was not only winning Washoe County – which includes Reno and is Nevada’s second-largest voting constituency – by about 1,600 votes but had garnered more than 478,000 votes in Clark County, where 71 percent of the state’s 3.2 million residents and 2.03 million active voters live, and where Democrats need to run up big numbers to win statewide races.

That doesn’t appear to have happened in 2024. While Harris was leading in Clark County with 504,828 votes late afternoon Nov. 8, that was only 26,000 more than what Trump had received in the blue county, significantly below the threshold needed to overcome GOP votes across the state.

Interestingly, in both these cases – Arizona and Nevada – the incumbent Democrat Senators are leading despite President Trump’s lead in the presidential race:

Jacky Rosen (D) has been declared the winner over Veteran Sam Brown. Rosen got around the same number of votes as Kamala…

But, In Arizona, Kari Lake (R) is holding it close still. BUT notice that the Dem senator has received far more votes than Kamala did…

Lake and campaign officials have been expressing confidence that Lake, who lost the 2022 gubernatorial election, will ultimately win the Arizona Senate race. They’ve been urging people to cure ballots, meaning fix mistakes on ballots so their votes are counted.

Under Arizona law, voters have five days after Election Day to fix issues with their ballots.

“There are lawyers and trained observers monitoring tabulation of ballots, duplicating, and adjudication until we are done. I’m in constant touch with Kari’s lawyers and supporters about this and we are watching every ballot drop,” Harmeet Dhillon, a lawyer who leads an election integrity team for state and national Republicans, said on the social media platform X.

As of the current projections, Republicans will have 53 Senate seats in the next Congress, compared to 45 for Democrats or nominal independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 14:00

“Show No Mercy”: Trump’s Campaign Pledge To Annihilate Mexican Cartels Goes Viral

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“Show No Mercy”: Trump’s Campaign Pledge To Annihilate Mexican Cartels Goes Viral

Now, as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, Mexican cartels, Chinese chemical companies, money laundering networks across North America, and US-based drug dealers are on notice that the boom times under the Biden-Harris regime’s open southern border policies will soon be coming to an end. 

If Trump follows through with his 2023 campaign promise to “wage war” against Mexican drug cartels, then Americans could expect an end to the horrific 100,000 US drug death overdose crisis per year caused by fentanyl and other drugs – much of which starts as precursor chemicals shipped from China, cooked into fentanyl by Mexican cartels, then flooded in the Lower 48. 

Here’s Trump’s action plan to destroy the cartels:

  • Restore all Trump border policies and fully secure border

  • Deploy all necessary military assets, including the U.S. Navy, to impose a full naval embargo on the cartels, to ensure they cannot use our region’s waters to traffic illicit drugs to the U.S.

  • Order the Department of Defense to make appropriate use of special forces, cyber warfare, and other covert and overt actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations

  • Designate the major drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations

  • Cut off the cartels’ access to the global financial system

  • Get full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else fully expose the bribes and corruption that protect these criminal networks

  • Ask Congress to ensure drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty

Trump’s team released this video in December 2023 titled “President Donald J. Trump Declares War on Cartels.” 

Now the question arises: Does the Trump-Vance team still hold these strong cartel-busting views after announcing them nearly a year ago?

Absolutely… 

Here’s JD Vance on the campaign trail in late October: “On behalf of every American who has lost a loved one due to this border crisis, we’re going to kick some cartel ass when President Donald J. Trump takes office.”

Not too long ago, Trump announced financial armageddon for Mexican cartels: “I’m announcing that for the first time under my administration, we are seizing the assets of the criminal gangs and drug cartels and we will use those assets to create a compensation fund to provide restitution for the victims of migrant crime.” 

At the Republican National Convention, Tom Homan, who served as the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement between 2017 and 2018, told Mexican cartels: “You’re done.” 

Americans are desperately hoping for closed borders and a resolution to this drug death chaos and illegal alien invasion. Trump’s historic election sweep shows just that. Now get to work, Mr. President.

In our view, the Trump team next year could start by disrupting the financial networks – or command and control centers – of cartels. Trump already mentioned seizing assets, but what’s rarely mentioned is the possibility of sanctioning Mexican banks.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 13:25

Trump’s Election Victory Proves That The Hollywood Elite No Longer Matter

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Trump’s Election Victory Proves That The Hollywood Elite No Longer Matter

Kamala Harris is toast.  The political spin has been crushed underfoot.  The polls were wrong (again) and the presidential race wasn’t even close.  But Harris’ defeat is only a symbol of something much bigger; the national repudiation of an elitist system that has long thrived on the public worship of false idols.

The narrative throughout the Joe Biden campaign was that the old ghoul was “sharp as a tack”.  That fantasy was quickly exposed to the masses in a single election debate.  The Harris campaign narrative was that Democrats are the “party of joy”, and they tried real hard to sell this illusion using a horde of celebrities and legacy media talking heads as a foil. 

It’s difficult to artificially generate joy.  But beyond that, the era of the celebrity endorsement is long gone.  Americans don’t care anymore and this seems to be confounding the progressive media.  According to them Harris ran a “flawless campaign”.  Joy Reid argued that with the number of celebrity endorsements Harris received her victory should have been assured.

Kamala even had the cast of The Avengers on her side.  The problem is that The Avengers and Harris never presented a valid economic policy plan, which is what the public really cares about.

Though one could argue that the Trump campaign also highlighted their celebrity endorsements (or that Trump’s TV stardom years ago is an example of celebrity power), the difference is that actors and pop stars were central to Kamala’s presidential run while they were a side note for Trump.  He didn’t need Hollywood to rally for him. 

There is an assumption by media pundits that movie star endorsements are somehow organic; but actors and singers can be bought.  Rumors abound that both Biden and Harris were paying big money to social media influencers in the early days of the election cycle and it’s a fair bet that they were doing the same thing with celebrity mascots. 

How much Harris campaign money was flowing into the pockets of these people?  Recent reports indicate that the Biden/Harris camp generated double the amount of donations that Trump received, yet she spent so much bread her campaign is now allegedly $20 million in debt.  If this is true then it highlights the incredible expense involved in creating fake joy, as well as the pointlessness of the Hollywood cult.

In other words, they can’t buy hype anymore. 

Cash might have been a big motivator for celebrities to jump on the Kamala bandwagon, but there’s also the issue of impending investigations into Hollywood’s degeneracy and pedophilia.  With Trump in office there will be increasing public demands for the release of the Esptein client lists as well as the exposure of the alleged Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs tapes.  Trump is likely to oblige.

Finally, the residents of Tinsel Town are notorious for living within a bubble of ideological delusion.  It’s true that decades ago celebrities had far more influence on the opinions of the general public, and perhaps they think they’re still living in that “golden” era.  It’s simply not the case, as the latest election proves.  The realization is hitting them like a ton of bricks.

Narcissists cannot handle the revelation that they are irrelevant, and so they quickly become unhinged.

The political left roots itself in the idea that they are the core of culture and they pride themselves on being the gatekeepers for what the public sees and hears.  They have long sought to dominate popular media through subversion and they’ll often brag about their success in infiltrating every corner of the entertainment industry.  But does any of this matter anymore?  Ricky Gervais answers this question in brilliant parody.

The alternative media today is dominating the establishment media.  Celebrities, once living behind a carefully crafted marketing image, are now exposed on social media as the dunces they really are.  Trump’s latest victory in the face of the La La Land army might just herald the total destruction of old Hollywood regime.  

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 12:15

Unaffordable Housing And Homeless Encampments: How Did It Get This Bad?

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Unaffordable Housing And Homeless Encampments: How Did It Get This Bad?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

To reverse the damage wrought by financialization, we must reverse financialization.

The post-election hope that festering problems can now be solved doesn’t seem to extend to unaffordable housing and homeless encampments, two blights on the socio-economic landscape. Perhaps this reflects a sense that these blights aren’t readily fixable, or an unsure grasp of the causes of these blights.

Let’s focus on the primary cause that led to unaffordable housing and homeless encampments. There are many contributing factors, of course, such as the NIMBY (not in my back yard) restrictions on new housing, the soaring cost of construction permits, materials and labor, and so on, but all these factors are subservient to one: financialization, which enriched the wealthy and incentivized them to pursue housing not as shelter for their family but as a low-risk investment that generates income and capital appreciation.

As the wealth to be parked in assets exploded to unprecedented heights, those seeking housing as an investment outbid those seeking housing as shelter. As demand generated by financialized investment pushed housing valuations higher, the wealthy gained more capital to be sunk into housing, creating a virtuous cycle of increasing demand and higher valuations.

Those without substantial portfolios of stocks and housing could no longer afford a home as shelter.

Lest you think this is an exaggeration, consider An estimated 26% of Fort Worth’s single family homes are owned by companies, city says. That is a non-trivial percentage of homes owned by corporations, and this doesn’t include homes owned as rentals / short-term rentals (AirBNBs) by wealthy individuals, households, trusts, etc. So up to one-third of all single family homes being owned by investors of one type or another in desirable regions is not unreasonable.

Note that this is 26% of single-family homes, not rental apartments. For context, the U.S. has about 145 million housing units, 15 million of which are unoccupied (second homes, available for rent, rarely occupied, left empty, etc.) 82 million single-family homes of which 68 million are owner-occupied, and about 45 million rental households.

The flood of capital seeking housing created a wave of gentrification that wiped out remaining pockets of low-cost housing. Cheap housing was available in undesirable neighborhoods until financialization created trillions of dollars seeking assets that could be snapped up, renovated and sold or rented at a profit.

Once small landlords learned that studio apartments in the newly renovated flophouse were now renting for $2,000 a month, they naturally raised their rents to “market.” Gentrification–driven by financialization–pushed rents higher, too.

With all the cheap rental housing gentrified, those on the margins ended up on the street. This includes addicts and those suffering from mental illness, but it also includes people who fell on hard times who were now priced out of any shelter other than an underpass or sidewalk.

Let’s tell the story in charts. Here is the Case-Shiller housing index, which shows the 2007-8 housing bubble as a modest blip compared to the current financialization-driven Everything Bubble which has pushed housing valuations out of reach in desirable (i.e. places with plenty of jobs) regions.

Measured by per capita–how many housing units are there per person in the U.S.–there is no housing shortage, as the number of housing units per capita has never been higher.

Wealth and income equality in the U.S. tracks the global asymmetries shown here: the top 10% collect half the income and own 76% of the wealth / assets. (In the U.S., the top 10% own 90% of all stocks.)

Non-bank financial assets are a proxy for financialization, which rose by roughly $50 trillion since the 2009 financial crisis.

The wealth held by the top 0.01% soared by $7 trillion just since 2019, topping $20 trillion. If this elite’s wealth had only risen with inflation. it would be around $4.3 trillion rather than $20 trillion. The increase far above inflation was generated by financialization.

All the monetary and fiscal stimulus, the super-low interest rates and massive appreciation of assets didn’t do much for America’s bottom 50% of households, who saw their share of the nation’s financial wealth fall from 3% in 2010 to 2.6% as tens of trillions of wealth were added to the swollen portfolios of the top 10%–wealth that sought a safe haven in housing.

Financialization has widened the gap between the top 10% and the bottom 50% to the kind of extreme asymmetry that typically presages social upheaval.

To reverse the damage wrought by financialization, we must reverse financialization. Doing anything other than this will have little effect, for no matter how many new homes are built, the wealth of the top 10% will have increased such that they will easily outbid mere wage-earners for the new housing. Building more homes for the wealthy to snap up with their ballooning wealth won’t address the root cause of unaffordable housing and homeless encampments: financialization.

Gordon Long and I discuss The Slow Death of the Single Family Home (30:57 min) in this new podcast.

To further the discussion of the opportunities and limits of state power, I’m making my 2018 book Pathfinding Our Destiny free (Kindle ebook) from November 7 to November 9. Yes, the book is now in the “free box” out on the sidewalk until Saturday, 11/9/24.

I was invited to discuss the upsides and downsides of central planning on two recent podcasts:

Charles Hugh Smith on the China Real Estate Bubble (29:28 min) Host Richard B. of the Financial Repression Authority

Charles Hugh Smith on The failure(s) of central planning across the globe (42:56 min) Host Rob S. of the Contrarian Capitalist (Substack)

*  *  *

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 11:40

Boeing 737 Freighter “Destroyed” By Cargo Fire 

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Boeing 737 Freighter “Destroyed” By Cargo Fire 

A Total Linhas Aereas 737-400 freighter was destroyed on Saturday morning after a fire ripped through the aircraft’s cargo hold. The freighter was forced to make an emergency landing at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International Airport in Brazil. 

X user Breaking Aviation News & Videos reported the incident earlier this morning. Footage shows the 737-400 freighter was a total loss. 

Here’s more from the aviation news outlet: 

Total Linhas Aereas 737-400 freighter destroyed by a cargo hold fire after making an emergency landing at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International Airport in Brazil.

Three vehicles from the airport’s own fire brigade and another five from the Fire Department worked to fight the flames on the airport runway. At around 7 am, firefighters were already doing the rescue work and removing the cargo from the plane.

The Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents (Cenipa) said it will investigate the causes of the fire and forced landing. No injuries reported during the accident.

Given the location of the fire in the cargo hold, one can only speculate about the potential for an electronic device to have malfunctioned, especially if it was equipped with lithium-ion batteries. Still, without a proper investigation, it’s only speculation.

The incident comes days after Western security officials told the Wall Street Journal that “two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the US and Canada.”

What is clear for the air freight industry is that handling increasing volumes of electronic goods is fraught with danger.  

Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/09/2024 – 11:05