Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Trump’s return to the White House is seen by India as an opportunity to repair the damage that Biden dealt to bilateral ties. Summer 2023’s alleged attempted assassination scandal, which readers can learn more about here, toxified their relations and was followed by American meddling in the latest Indian general elections. Bangladesh’s US-backed regime change several months ago was regarded by many Indians as a betrayal of their regional security interests. The US has also pressured India to dump Russia.  

All of that might soon be water under the bridge if Trump brings Indian Americans and Indian-friendly officials with him back to Washington.

This would be especially so if Kashyap Patel is confirmed as the next CIA chief like some have speculated that Trump is planning to propose.

If the stars align, then the first order of business that India would want to have happen is for the US to crack down on Delhi-designated terrorists-separatists to the maximum extent that American law allows.

The state protection that Khalistani leaders like Gurpatwant Singh Pannun enjoy while they openly imply threats to bomb Indian airliners and assassinate its diplomats among other crimes has convinced many Indians that these figures and their movement are being wielded as Hybrid War weapons against India. Trump campaigned on a law-and-order platform whose principles are incompatible with these provocations so there are hopes that he’ll put a stop to them as the first step to repairing ties.

Next on India’s wish list is for the US to stop meddling in its domestic affairs. Criticism of its socio-political situation is seen as unfriendly, while the efforts of various NGOs to cultivate anti-state sentiment – especially in the Christian-populated Northeastern States – is considered absolutely unacceptable. Relations can never truly return to normal until these activities are ended. For that to happen, however, Trump must successfully rein in liberal-globalist elements of his “deep state”, which will be a challenge.

Moving along, India also wants the US to pressure the new Bangladeshi government into respecting the rights of the country’s Hindu minority, who’ve been victimized by pogroms and other forms of violence since summer’s regime change. Truly free and fair elections should also be held as soon as possible. Speculative plans for a US military facility there are also troubling due to how much this could disrupt the balance of power in the region. The US should therefore keep India’s legitimate concerns in mind.

Elsewhere on the regional front, India would appreciate the US once again treating it as its top partner instead of continuing to balance between it and Pakistan. The Biden Administration departed from the first Trump Administration’s Indo-centric regional policy partially due to its liberal-globalist ideological agenda that set it at odds with Modi’s conservative-nationalist government. His team also flirted with improving ties with China, and distancing the US from India to a degree was seen as a means to that end.

American pressure on India to dump Russia should also stop if Trump wants to improve bilateral ties. He recently pledged to “un-unite” Russia and China, who he claims had been forced together by Biden, so India could argue that letting Indo-Russo trade blossom helps achieve this goal by preemptively averting Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China. Trump’s team is expected to follow a Kissingerian Great Power balancing strategy so this appeal to its global role might resonate with them.  

And finally, although India entered into a rapprochement with China just several weeks ago that the US was inadvertently responsible for as explained here, it wouldn’t mind if Trump took a tougher stance on China than Biden and privileged India as a counterbalance to the People’s Republic. In pursuit of that, the US could continue exporting high-tech military equipment to India and ideally make progress on negotiating a free trade deal. The latter is easier said than done but should still figure on the agenda.

Altogether, the future looks bright for Indo-US ties so long as Indian Americans, Indian-friendly officials, and geopolitical pragmatists follow Trump into the White House, all of which is expected judging by the latest reports. In that case, the challenge will then be reining in liberal-globalist elements of the “deep state” in order to prevent them from subverting the Indo-US rapprochement, which would be greatly facilitated if the Guajarati-descended Trump loyalist Patel becomes the next CIA chief.

Authored by Richard Truesdell and Keith Lehmann via American Greatness,

While there are a few close states not officially yet called, Trump is on his way to what we called several weeks ago, something close to a 312 – 226 Electoral College vote victory.

He’s swept all seven swing states. He made New Hampshire and Virginia competitive, expanding his electoral map and forcing Democrats to spend resources in the race’s waning days.

Best of all, he won a resounding popular vote victory, the final numbers of which will come in the days to come.

What did we learn from Trump’s victory in 2024? It played out much as it did in 2016 with the collapse of the vaunted Democrat “Blue Wall” of Rust Belt states. That it was Harris that had a ceiling below 50%, not Trump. With the exception of just one state, Michigan, where Trump won 49.8% of the vote, Trump won more than 50% of the vote in the six remaining crucial swing states.

Down ballot, Republicans made sizable gains in the Senate and it’s now looking likely that there will be no Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries in place to derail the Trump 47 legislative agenda. Not having to work to be reelected, Trump is, in essence, a lame-duck president when he takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025. On Day One, the Trump Administration can start cleaning house of the Deep State operatives who infest every level of the federal bureaucracy, especially top appointees and executives. And the deportation of criminal aliens will start immediately with the support of both houses of Congress.

That starts with the Department of Justice (DOJ), where on Wednesday it pulled off an unconstitutionally-appointed attack dog, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, from the two federal cases in DC and Florida. The Fani Willis election interference case in Georgia is on life support and faces the prospect of also being shut down by Georgia law. Only in the Alvin Bragg/Judge Marchon Stormy Daniels case in New York does Trump face the prospect of incarceration. But it’s likely until after his term ends, and this will cause far leftists’ heads to explode. Marchon is likely, if he has the good sense, to suspend the sentence while Trump’s attorneys wind the case through the appeals process.

As we said months ago, the real cost of this election for Democrats will be that Trump will get to appoint at least two more Supreme Court justices to replace Clarence Thomas and Samual Alito (who have stayed on the court awaiting a Republican victory in 2025) from a crop of young Conservative jurists in their 40s, so Trump’s impact will last long after both Trump and both of us will be six-feet under.

He might even get to pick Justice Sotomayor’s replacement, giving the SCOTUS a 7 – 2 Conservative majority. More than the false flag of Project 2025, this is what Democrats now face on crucial social issues like abortion (which turned out to not be enough to motivate Republican women to vote against Trump, Senate Republicans, and the incoming Republican/Conservative agenda). With a few Senate races still to be decided, Republicans will control the Senate on their way to a 53 – 47 or 54 – 46 majority. This means that squishy Republican RINOs like Susan Collins from Maine and Lisa Murkowski from Alaska will be unable to derail the Trump Train on legislative issues and court appointments.

This is the nightmare scenario for Democrats that absolutely no one is talking about.

Sometimes it’s hard to accept trends that we really want because, as Conservatives, we’re used to disappointment. This election is a good example; we wanted Trump but were ready to accept Harris due to all of the money and power behind her. Yet, the people stepped up and made the right choice. It restored faith in the American electorate.

Thus far, we have not seen the massive cheat that took place in 2020 because the race was never close enough for the cheat to be plausible. Look at this chart comparing the popular vote over the past four presidential cycles:

Source: ZeroHedge

It starts with the 18 million “additional” votes in 2020. Harris did not benefit from the cheat machine this year because:

• No pandemic lockdown

• Lots of people watching for ballot fraud

• The race was not even close, thus the cheating would have been too obvious

• Kamala Harris…REALLY?

Look at the trajectory going back when Biden was “elected” in 2020. The Dems figured they could cheat their way into power forever, no matter how incompetent or unqualified the candidate. Putting Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket was their way of sticking a thumb into the eye of America, stating, “We are in control and can do whatever we want, and there is nothing you can do about it.” What effing hubris.

The election cycle’s biggest loser beyond Harris and her buffoonish running mate Tim Walz was Barack Obama and the cadre of so-called celebrities with their nonstop condescension toward America. Obama stands out, continuously expressing his “disappointment” at us. This cipher with a chip on his shoulder has always been the least accomplished person walking into any room yet portrays himself as some sort of statesman with no record of doing anything except feathering his own nest. Even many middle-of-the-road Democrats are tired of this guy and his outsized ego.

Harris is toast; now that she’s lost and conceded, she will be memory-holed by the media and cast out to sea, never to be let anywhere near a position of power—well, maybe in California, the only place where she has any chance whatsoever at being elected to anything. But nationally, a huge embarrassment for Democrats who thought they could nominate a ham sandwich and get away with it.

Democrats are now at a crossroads. They have no leadership that has any credibility due to the laughably ridiculous Harris-Walz campaign. We could write a scathing post-mortem on this but why even bother? This campaign was a joke—a fraud put upon the public by the Democrats who believed they were going to be in power forever and thought they could put a couple of stupid, malleable candidates with mental issues in front of the public and sell them as viable leaders of our country. This is worse than Chauncy Gardner in “Being There.” Chauncy could at least articulate his thoughts, as he fooled everyone into thinking he was some brilliant political and cultural philosopher. These two were a monumental train wreck, particularly when placed next to the Trump/Vance ticket.

The Democrats are in a disastrous position that might not even be fixable for a generation or two. There is no back bench of viable young lefties, only socialists/communists with Big Government positions that can only be implemented in deep blue states (CA, NY, IL, VA, MI) and have no national appeal. And these blue states have a population that is growing tired of the conditions with which they have been living for decades and are now empowered by Trump to effect change.

We strongly sense a cultural shift that is going in our favor. The abject bullshit that we as a nation have been force-fed over the past twenty years is coming to a reckoning that could only take place here in the U.S.

With Trump’s likely SCOTUS appointments and the house cleaning that is likely to take place, it will be glorious to envision. Democrats in the House of Representatives like the reprehensible Jamie Raskin (D-MD) and his bunch will challenge the election results because they have nothing to lose in the effort. They must play to their far-left base to keep them placated so they can retain power in some reduced way. But this will turn out to be theater in the end…and Raskin will be relegated even more to the position of radical weirdo screaming from the back bench, which, we’re sure, he’s okay with.

This is a second Reagan “Morning in America” moment, and it’s grand. It’s time to breathe a sigh of relief that we were correct in our prognostication for the 2024 election result.

The four-year-long Biden-Harris national nightmare is now over. Trump’s decisive win will be the beginning of a decades-long Golden Age of freedom, prosperity, economic growth, and a smaller, more accountable government that actually works for its citizens.

God bless Donald Trump and his band of happy warriors, ready for the battle ahead!

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has until Monday, Nov. 11 to transfer some of his assets from his Palm Beach property to the law firm representing plaintiffs in the defamation suit against him.

Giuliani was convicted of defamation after two Georgia election workers, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, a mother and daughter, sued him after he claimed that they had illegally tampered with voting devices during the 2020 presidential election. He was hit with a nearly $150 million judgement.

Last month, Judge Lewis Liman ordered Giuliani to hand over his Manhattan apartment and other valuables to the plaintiffs. His lawyer, Kenneth Caruso, has vowed to fight the judgement and have it overturned, and challenged aspects of the transfer order on technical legal grounds.

During a Nov. 7 hearing, Caruso called it “vindictive” for the prosecution to force Giuliani to give up a watch that once belonged to the former mayor’s grandfather – prompting a rebuke from Liman, who told Caruso that New York law makes no distinction between items of sentimental value and items lacking any such value.

As the Epoch Times notes further, the judge stated that he had an order from a Washington court, registered in his court, that mandated the transfer of assets to satisfy the defamation judgment, and that would guide his rulings.

Nathan, the Willkie Farr & Gallagher attorney, said the defense hasn’t been transparent or cooperative.

Nathan said he and his colleagues had only recently learned of the establishment of a limited liability company, Standard USA LLC, for which records indicate Giuliani held 88 percent ownership and associates of the former mayor held minority positions.

Logistics

During the hearing, the lawyers engaged in contentious exchanges with the judge about the location and value of certain of Giuliani’s assets. These included real estate, cars, jewelry, watches, and money.

At one point, the judge grew irritated with what he saw as vague and evasive answers on the part of the defense.

“The notion that your client doesn’t have any notion of where his assets are is farcical,” Liman told Caruso.

Giuliani spoke briefly on his own behalf and criticized what he saw as overly aggressive questioning directed at people close to him about his assets.

“Some of the questions are inappropriate, because of the way people have been treated,” Giuliani said.

The judge maintained that the former mayor had not offered a legally material pretext for evading a question about his assets.

“Nobody is going to exercise self-help. You’re going to answer that question fully and truthfully. Do you understand that?” the judge said, before overruling the former mayor’s objection.

Caruso acknowledged that items of value, among them jewelry and watches, including the watch that once belonged to Giuliani’s grandfather, are currently in Palm Beach, Florida, and nothing is impeding their transfer.

Neither Willkie Farr & Gallagher nor Giuliani’s legal team responded by publication time to a request for comment.

By Simon Flowers, Chairman of Wood Mackenzie and author of The Edge

The US has a President-elect with power to wield. A likely Republican trifecta would strengthen President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration across domestic and global affairs. Along with the White House, the GOP will have control of the Senate and (probably) the House of Representatives.

President-elect Trump himself has declared he has a “mandate”, although he will be subject to the checks and balances inherent in the US political system. The Supreme Court, with six of its nine justices appointed by a Republican president, is also likely to be broadly supportive of his policy agenda.

A Trump administration means radical changes for tariffs on imports, climate policy and international affairs. For the energy and natural resources sectors, the implications are many. A pathway nearer to our new delayed transition scenario is now more likely. Here are our team’s initial thoughts.

Power and renewables and decarbonisation:

The US will backtrack on net zero. Bipartisan support for measures in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) means that a full repeal is unlikely, but the expiration of tax cuts passed in President Trump’s first term will force Congress to re-examine incentives for low-carbon energy.

Near-term growth expectations for wind, solar, battery storage and EVs rely on IRA incentives, including 10-plus years of eligibility for production and investment tax credits. Even if Congress doesn’t end those credits, various elements of the IRA – including tax credit timelines, financing mechanisms or bonus adders – are likely to be removed or modified.

If those tax credits are phased out, tariffs put on equipment imports and restrictions on permitting, then we estimate renewable deployments could be reduced by a third. The Biden administration’s emissions standards for thermal power plants will be scrapped, although the rules are likely to be the subject of further legal battles.

Prospects for new data centres and factories seeking an electricity supply look better under a Republican administration and Congress, especially if corporate buyers relent on meeting emission reduction goals. We have identified over 51 GW of new data centre announcements since 2023, and manufacturing is set to add at least 15 GW of new demand.

Broad permitting reform to expedite infrastructure development has the best chance in decades. Construction of new gas pipelines, electricity transmission and power plants should be able to respond faster to market load growth.

Support for domestic renewable energy manufacturing is one part of the IRA policy framework that is likely to be relatively resilient. And there’s potential upside for US manufacturers from increased protectionist measures. But if renewables deployment is lower, then that will mean a smaller market for US manufacturers. Plus, tariffs will raise the cost of low-carbon technologies for US consumers, dampening penetration rates.

For vehicles, the new administration is expected to revise tailpipe emission standards from 2027, easing the pressures that were pushing manufacturers towards EVs.

Reductions in support for low-emissions technologies will have implications for metals demand. But reforms of project approvals and a clear definition of ‘critical minerals’ could offer supply upside for large US copper and lithium project pipelines.

Oil market:

Tariffs could slow US and global economic growth, reducing oil demand by as much as 0.5 million b/d in 2025 – one-third of Wood Mackenzie’s current projection for next year’s global oil demand growth. This has the potential to soften oil prices by US$5 to US$7/bbl from current levels, assuming no other risks such as an escalation in Israel-Iran hostilities. Weaker oil demand growth represents a downside risk to the refining industry, but tariff protection should result in US refiners outperforming.

The Trump administration faces a complex and dangerous conflict in the Middle East with the potential to escalate into a full-on regional war. Iran has promised to respond to Israel’s last round of strikes, which could, in turn, provoke Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear installations and oil infrastructure. That scenario could push oil prices sharply higher until spare productive capacity – currently about 6 million b/d – brings more barrels into the market.

Liquefied natural gas:

Of all the energy and natural resources sectors, the US LNG industry will arguably benefit the most from the election outcome. A Trump victory provides more clarity on the industry’s direction, potentially paving the way for much-needed investments to help maintain more affordable global LNG prices post-2030. But the route ahead won’t be all smooth sailing.

President-elect Trump has promised that, on his first day in office, he would end the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG export permits for sales to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US. Inevitably, it will take time for the Department of Energy (DOE) to re-staff and satisfy requisite legal and environmental reviews, despite Republicans’ likely control of both legislative branches. New permits might only be issued after the spring, enabling projects to FID in the second half of the year.

But some risks remain. The Trump administration will have limited influence on the lawsuit that threatens to vacate FERC approval for the Rio Grande and Texas LNG projects. And while President-elect Trump might well shelve the soon-to-be-published DOE study on the environmental impact of the US LNG industry, environmentalist groups will likely step up legal efforts to stop projects, possibly leveraging the study itself. Trump’s economic manifesto also poses a risk. Proposed import tariffs could make US LNG exports a target for retaliation while the anticipated increase in domestic gas prices could still prompt second thoughts on how much additional LNG should be exported.

US upstream oil and gas:

A second Trump administration emboldens support for expanding domestic oil and gas production, but it’s unlikely to spur additional growth anytime soon.

Familiar Republican rhetoric such as “drill, baby, drill” resurfaced during the election campaign, and the president-elect even discussed opening new supply geographies previously inaccessible. However, for the large public E&Ps that control half of the US Lower 48’s rigs and develop much of the best leasehold, it’s the return of capital frameworks that will dictate investment. And increased tariffs threaten to expose the industry to cost inflation.

There will be some positives. Policy adjustments to streamline well permitting could encourage more niche onshore drilling on federal land. A new Republican administration may also attempt to overturn a lower court’s ruling in order to preserve legacy Gulf of Mexico permitting laws that are currently under review.

For private US Lower 48 producers, in particular, conditions to raise fresh capital could improve because investors perceive less terminal value risk under an oil- and gas-oriented Washington. And if corporate M&A becomes more streamlined, a build cycle of new private E&Ps could support some activity growth in the coming years.

The president-elect has been relatively outspoken about emissions regulations and we expect some rollback of the EPA’s new oil and gas framework. However, many E&Ps have already undertaken considerable self-regulation, as they did with their drilling activity, to lower their scope 1 and 2 emissions.

US economy:

President-elect Trump has pledged to hike tariffs on imports to at least 10% globally, with a more penal 60% rate for Chinese imports. The tariffs could be enacted early in 2025 by executive order, supplanting existing trade agreements.

In the short term, increases in domestic production to substitute for imports will be minimal. Shifting trade patterns, especially to reduce imports from China, will be material. But with tariffs rising for all trading partners, import costs will increase.

We estimate raising tariffs could cost an additional US$450 billion in import duties in 2025, a burden that US businesses and households would carry. And this is before any global retaliation.

While President-elect Trump is promising corporate tax cuts to compensate, gambling on aggressive protectionism is unlikely to pay off. We expect higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher debt.

Geopolitics:

US-China competition is set to remain the defining strategic relationship of the 21st century, as President-elect Trump’s tariff plans make very clear. His trade strategy is aimed not just at rebuilding US manufacturing industry, but also at strengthening US military capabilities and influence relative to other countries, especially China.

He will withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate and possibly the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, symbolic of his rejection of international efforts to limit global warming. The result is likely to be a more fragmented picture of global climate policy, with different countries and regions pursuing varying strategies to reduce emissions, rather than attempting to forge a global consensus on action. The US voice at the upcoming COP29 discussions will carry much less weight.

On the campaign trail, Trump had pledged to bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East. He can be expected to attempt to defuse international tensions by putting pressure on Ukraine to agree a peace settlement with Russia and will also try to broker agreements in the Middle East.

However, he remains a staunch supporter of Israel and will be expected to ramp up pressure on Iran with tougher enforcement of sanctions.

The lame-duck Biden administration has lifted a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine. The change had reportedly been formally approved a month before the election, but is officially taking effect now.

The move is being framed as necessary in order to maintain sophisticated equipment and defense technology provided to Ukraine by Western allies. “In order to help Ukraine repair and maintain military equipment provided by the US and its allies, DoD (Department of Defense) is soliciting bids for a small number of contractors who will help Ukraine maintain the assistance we’ve already provided,” a defense official was quoted in CNN as saying.

“These contractors will be located far from the front lines and they will not be fighting Russian forces. They will help Ukrainian Armed Forces rapidly repair and maintain US provided equipment as needed so it can be quickly returned to the front lines,” the official added.

And yet this clearly marks another huge step toward opening the floodgates for US private military firms. Already, there’s a significant presence of American foreign fighters in Ukraine, and this has already included foreign contractors on the ground.

However, American companies have never been able to operate inside Ukraine while servicing DOD contracts. US companies have so far been there under Ukrainian government contracts.

The Pentagon has further explained this as necessary in order to urgently work on systems like F-16s and Patriots missile batteries, which “require specific technical expertise to maintain.”

“It is worth noting that there already are a wide array of American companies who have personnel in Ukraine fulfilling contracts for the Ukrainian government, so this will not lead to a substantial increase of employees of US companies working on the ground in Ukraine,” a defense official was quoted separately in Stripes as saying.

In a sense this just cuts out the Ukrainian ‘middleman’ – given that Washington has sunk billions of dollars into Kiev’s coffers. From there, Ukraine used the American funds to then go and hire American companies.

So to a large degree billions in US taxpayer’s funds have been flowing the whole time from main street into the pockets of the major defense firms… who were already operating in Ukraine. Just now it will be a more direct process – the funds will get to the US defense companies faster.

This is a blatant attempt by the Biden-Harris administration to escalate tensions with Russian prior to President Trump taking office and to box him in on Ukraine policy. https://t.co/XEjuqlEdWJ

— Dan Caldwell 🇺🇸 (@dandcaldwell) November 8, 2024

President-Elect Trump has meanwhile promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia “within 24 hours” if being sworn into office. As for the lifting of the ban on US defense contractors, it’s unclear whether he’ll keep that policy in place. Very likely he won’t do anything to reverse it.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

These have been a dark few years in which many suppositions about the U.S. system of government have come into question. You can see it in the polls showing the loss of trust. It has pertained to everything from medicine to media to tech to academia and of course government.

In addition, the sources we once associated with expertise have pushed agendas that have contradicted all experience and hence have been rejected by vast numbers.

The United States is hardly alone in this. Most countries of the world today are dealing with a wrenching upheaval in politics and social order generally. Stability has turned to instability, certainty to uncertainty, and clarity to the fog of war. The resulting thicket seemed to offer no way out.

As an inevitable part of this, many people have questioned whether the democratic system of choosing leaders works properly anymore. Protests following election returns are common worldwide, not necessarily because people have stopped believing in the ideal but because they doubt that the count is accurate and the ballots are legitimate. Technology has not helped this problem but rather introduced more doubt.

This problem has massively afflicted the United States in recent years. There have been doubts at every point, not helped by a well-documented loosening of voting rules during the pandemic response (the CDC encouraged mail-in voting) and then after during a refugee wave that has disrupted many communities around the country. This is a serious problem: when people have doubts about such a core functioning of the system, there is a feeling of being caged in a machine only the elites control.

This is a major reason for the shock concerning election results. It’s not just that the Republicans swept the presidency and one if not both houses of Congress but also the popular vote, which no one really believed possible. The betting markets gave such an outcome very low odds.

Many people this year trudged the polls with grave doubts about the relevance of what they were doing. Is the system so broken that the will of the people no longer matters as compared with the power of the elites?

This was a real shock, from people from all sides. It was that the people’s voice rose above all the money, manipulation, claims of fraud, uncertainties over voter ID, technology, and so much more. For years now, people have habitually found fault with nearly everything. The prediction was that the conclusion of the vote in the presidency would take days, weeks, or even months. Such a prospect is enormously depressing for a nation that imagines itself to be a great one.

But sure enough, the results came in on a perfect schedule, as the polls closed, culminating in a result for a candidate that had for years now faced down attacks from every angle. It was the least expected conclusion to the most contentious election of our lives or perhaps in a century or more.

It was a clean victory for Donald J. Trump, including the popular vote. Not only that: it was a credible result. That’s the key.

The result accomplished much. It wiped out several years of partisan agitation against the system of the Electoral College as established in the U.S. Constitution. The purpose of this institution is to grant a more even representation of the states as entities over the popular will. This traces to the federalist system established by the Founders, not a unity government from the center but a federation of states that have come together for their common betterment. Wiping that structure out would have been transformative.

But with a victory of the popular vote, that is no longer an issue. It would not have changed the result. This feature, truly blessed, of the outcome also quelled much-predicted street violence. Even the concession speech by Kamala Harris was conciliatory, and contained not even one hint of funny business or rigging. It was a clear and challenged expression of popular will to which everyone on all sides had to accede.

As she said, this does not mean giving up principles or disappearing. It means working harder in the future for causes in which one believes to make them ascend in the public mind, waiting to be embodied in a candidate who can carry those concerns to the halls of power.

In other words, we have been granted, and mercifully, a peaceful transition of power. Herein lies the genius of the democratic form. It was never created or defended because it produces perfection. It is messy and difficult. Its purpose as forged hundreds of years ago, even tracing to ancient times, is to provide a better solution to public discontent than war and revolution. To prevent violence, bloodshed, and social dissolution is the whole point.

And that is precisely what has happened. We had in contest here two dramatically different visions of the role of government. Instead of civil war, we had ballot boxes and peace.

If you voted this time, you know this interesting feeling of being handed a ballot and given a private space to make your selection. It confers on the individual a sense of responsibility and influence, not ultimate power of course but something else: a right of participation in the civic commonwealth. The remarkable thing about 2024 is the voters were able to see how their participation makes a crucial difference.

This experience alone has done more to restore American patriotism than anything to occur in many years. Americans could feel pride in the wisdom of the Founders. Crucially, the results echoed around the world, encouraging millions and billions to see how it is possible to go against the grain of the establishment, the media, the academic elites, and the whole system of intimidation and control, and do so in a way that is consistent with civility and public order.

Once again, America provided a beautiful lesson to the world in how it is done. It’s been many years since we could feel pride in that. Many people around the world, watching the lockdowns unfold and the political conflicts grow ever more intense, had begun to wonder if we still had it, if this country was still capable of leading by example. Well, we did. And the example will resound all over the world, encouraging “populist” movements in all countries. We did it not through force of arms or financial pressure but rather by being an example of light in the darkness.

We should not underestimate the power of this. Many people the world over are looking to the United States to protect free speech, guarantee election integrity, uphold the ideal of democracy, and celebrate the possibility of living together under a system of transparent integrity.

There is a long way to go with much-needed and far-reaching reform, and everyone must hope that the new administration is willing to do what is necessary. That said, Election Day was a wonderful start, an example to the world that freedom still works and is still valued here and should be everywhere.

Do you feel a sudden sense of pride in what we have here, despite all the flaws and missteps? I certainly do. It’s been a long time coming but it seems finally to be here. For that we should all be deeply grateful.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and Chair of Obama’s CEA lectures people on how well off they are…

You might be thinking this is another Mish satirical fiction post, but it’s not. Here are some ideas to ponder by Jason Furman.

It’s the Media’s Fault

• “The macroeconomy is strong–high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation–the best of any advanced economy. But there was a reluctance to present/understand how families were still not out of the deep inflation hole. And too much masked by cherrypicking/misleading stats.”

• “Selective amplification has been rife. How many times did you see a chart of US GDP exceeding other G7 economies?”

• “Cherrypicking also rife.”

• “Most wage data shows that wages have, indeed, risen more than prices. BUT, most wage series show that it was well below trend but the few that showed above trend amplified much more often to the exclusion of showing other measures.”

• “Or the endless repeating of that graph w/ the increase in spending on manufacturing structures (often shown nominal, ignoring the big price increase) as a sign of a manuf resurgence when other manuf investment was down, manuf employment down & prodn flat.” [Mish Note – I never once saw that chart and if I didn’t, who did?]

• “Yes people suffer from money illusion (thinking they deserve their raises but price increases happen to them).”

• “Yes, many problems were amplified by misleading media and partisanship.”

• “I don’t pretend to know what message politicians should use. Maybe Harris should have bragged more about how great everything was by using selective data. Maybe she should have been more negative. I really don’t know.”

• [Mish comment: Gee, I wonder if lying about the economy on top of lawfare, calling Trump a fascist, and pretending to support fracking while saying she could not think of anything she would have done differently than Biden, would have helped. Then again perhaps telling people they were better off than the average person in Germany may have worked. I really don’t know.]

• “A lot of horrendous right-wing misinformation out there.” [Mish comment, note the irony of that statement vs the previous two bullet points.]

Reflections on Academic Wonderland

Academic clowns sit in their ivory towers telling people how good they should feel. On top of that they blame the media.

If I posted a chart of GDP of the US vs Europe, who the heck would have seen it other than those in academic wonderland, stock market investors, and a select few of us on Twitter?

More to the point, the idea is idiotic. The average person does not give a damn if US GDP is better than Europe. Only those in wonderland would concoct such a construct.

And seriously, has anyone here seen the “endless repeating” of the chart of manufacturing that Furman refers to?

Furman proves how much out of touch academia is with the lives of ordinary people.

Here’s Your Money Illusion

Hello Jim Bianco, please give Jason Furman a call.

Blaming the Media for Amplification

Blaming the media is an amazing hoot of its own. Hell yes, everything was amplified, about 15-1 against Trump.

The media repeated every charge of racism, lawfare (without calling it lawfare), and finally, things accelerated so much we had Obama and Biden calling Trump a Nazi and a fascist.

Wage Revisions

Real hourly compensation fell 4.2 percent in 2022. And it fell a revised 0.2 percent in 2023.

Damn that BLS Productivity Report.

That report was out yesterday. So, Furman believed things were better in 2023 than they were. But people didn’t. It’s “money illusion” says Furman.

Professor, can we discuss the real world instead of your illusion?

The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad

The Brookings Institute is right there with Furman. It called low consumer sentiment a paradox.

I gave a helping hand to the Brookings Institute.

Dear Brookings, Here’s Your Paradox

• The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary

• Negative 818,000 job revisions

• Job openings crash

• Full Time Employment: -1,000,600 from a year ago

• Total employment: only +216,000 from a year ago

• Excluding government, year-over-year employment is negative for the last 9 consecutive months

• Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.

• The unemployment rate is up 0.7 percent from the low at a pace that strongly suggests recession.

• Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years to new record highs.

• A $150,000 house in 1988 now costs $707,500.

• The mortgage rate is back above 7 percent.

• The share of first-time buyers of existing homes is at a record low.

• Even if you have a home, what about flood insurance, fire insurance, and car insurance.

• The Fed’s Beige Book looks very recessionary

• The immigrant crime spree is real. The FBI lied about the crime rate dropping.

• Evictions are at record highs in many states and might be everywhere were it not for eviction moratoriums.

• Tens of millions of people want to buy a home but can’t afford one and a different set of tens of millions of people are trapped in their homes but won’t because of mortgage rates.

• A Bank of America survey shows over 40 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck.

Please consider The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad, I Can Help

In my post, I offer 10 charts and many links that I challenge Furman and The Brookings Institute to refute.

Please click on the above link, and give it a crack. Tell me and my readers why GDP and warm fluffy thoughts would have mattered more than my allegedly cherrypicked data.

Citing GDP, the stock market, CEO confidence, and even increased air travel (things the average Joe does not give a damn about), the Brookings Institute could not figure out why sentiment is in the gutter.

I am pleased to report Jason Furman has figured this out.

It’s the Media!

In academic wonderland, if we do not tell people they are losing money to inflation, then they wouldn’t know.

And then they would have voted for Harris. And that’s why she lost.

Silly Me

I thought that 40% of the nation living paycheck-to-paycheck mattered. I thought negative year-over-year employment for the last nine months, except for government, mattered.

I thought that millions of people trapped in their homes unable to move, somehow mattered. And I thought millions of other people unable to buy a home (but let’s not call that inflation) mattered.

For more of my thoughts, please see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture

Please check it out and tell me where I went wrong.

Bottom line, Furman nailed it.

Harris lost because of the media. If only we would have told people they were better off than they were, people would have believed it.

This week Hezbollah rockets targeted Israel’s Trump Heights settlement, a remote community in the central Golan Heights – which was taken from Syria after the Six Day War of 1967.

Iranian state media as well as a report in Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen indicated that Hezbollah specifically targeted Trump Height the day after he won the Tuesday US presidential election.

“Sirens sounded in Trump Heights as Hezbollah rocket attack targeted the Golan Heights on Wednesday,” an Israeli regional sources also said. “The attack came shortly after the election results were announced, indicating that Trump was the victor.”

The tiny Jewish settlement was named after Trump in 2019, during his first term, in acknowledgement of his declaring that the US recognizes Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

It was an ultra-controversial move at the time, given most of the rest of the world considers it “Israeli-occupied territory” belonging to Syria.

At the time of the attack sirens blared not just in Trump Heights, but across other locations of northern and central Israel.

But the “Trump Heights” designation has always been more about a PR move for the existing community to improve and expand, as the Associated Press explains:

But a large-scale influx of new residents never materialized after that 2019 ceremony, and just a couple dozen families live in Trump Heights, or “Ramat Trump” in Hebrew. Job opportunities are limited, and Israel’s more than yearlong war against Hezbollah militants in nearby Lebanon has added to the sense of isolation.

Trump’s election has inspired hope in the community that it will attract more members and also more funding for security improvements.

Hezbollah is salty after Trumps win.

Hezbollah launched rockets targeting Ramat Trump, the town named after Trump in recognition of his acknowledgment of the Golan Heights as part of Israel. pic.twitter.com/ecp6ISgAmx

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) November 6, 2024

One resident observed that “President Trump’s return to the White House definitely puts the town in the headlines.”

It had also made big headlines when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went there for an unveiling ceremony in 2019. During that June 2019 ceremony, BBC noted that “Building work has yet to begin but a sign bearing Mr Trump’s name and US and Israeli flags was unveiled. However, it also noted that “Critics called the move a publicity stunt with no legal authority.”

Authored by J.G.Martinez via The Organic Prepper blog,

A total economic and social collapse is a catastrophic event characterized by the widespread dysfunction of critical systems, including government, economy, infrastructure, and basic services. While such a scenario is extreme, recognizing early warning signs can be crucial.

I have been monitoring the Cuba scenario.

To me, that is the definition of a failed State holding to the remains of a collapsed country ruled by thugs terrified of a popular armed uprising.

As our economy was destroyed by design, to control the population and crush the opposition among other goals, I believe I can describe the indications better than someone who never watched this happening.

In my research, a few events arose, as expected. Nevertheless, there were a couple of not-so-evident things that I’m going to point out.

By now, most of you reading this are very much aware of the loom and doom that destroyed the Venezuelan economy, and even these days, we feel panic every time the exchange rate with the USD changes.

For this past month (Oct. 2024), it went up 13%.

Enough to shake many people and make others begin thinking again about migrating.

Meanwhile, we have a single-digit “growing”, and a 50% inflation…in USDs. (This year!)

It is awesome to see how, despite oil production increasing at a snail’s pace, inflation seems to be looming again. It has been up almost 15% since 2022.

Here are some key indicators:

Economic Indicators

• Hyperinflation: Uncontrolled inflation that rapidly erodes the value of currency. Shortly after the bus driver got into the Palace we started to see how our currency started this infamous process. This was so severe that it wiped off most of the wealth and living standards. We haven’t been able to recover it ever since 2015 when it started. This is so self-explanatory that there is not too much need for further discussion.

• Commodity Shortages: Severe shortages of essential goods like food, water, and fuel. At the present moment, supermarkets are overflowing with all kinds of products. Of course, getting the money to buy them is the hard part. Most of them come from Brazil, for the sake of money laundering schemes related to gold, and the fees charged by the concession of the narcotics trafficking routes control to the “producers”. But can’t prove it though.

• Mass Unemployment: it occurs when a significant portion of a nation’s workforce is unable to find suitable employment. Here, “suitable” refers to jobs that align with an individual’s existing skills and experience. Unemployment in large amounts, is often viewed as a symptom of a deeper malaise within a society. It can serve as a powerful indicator of a nation’s economic health and can signal the onset of more severe societal problems. Mass unemployment is a financial issue at its core. When a large number of people are out of work, it has a ripple effect throughout the economy. Consumer spending decreases as people have less disposable income. Businesses are forced to lay off more workers because of the decline in demand, in a downward spiral.

• Recession/Depression: This can lead to a recession or even a depression, depending on the severity and duration of the unemployment. The effect of mass unemployment deteriorates the nation’s tax base. With fewer people working and paying taxes, governments have less revenue to fund essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. This can lead to a decline in the quality of life for citizens and further erode the nation’s competitiveness. The social consequences of mass unemployment are equally profound. High unemployment rates are often associated with increased crime rates, societal unrest, and political instability.

• Uptick in property crime: When people are searching for work without success, they may turn to desperate measures to support themselves and their families. I have seen this happening. This means an increase in property crime, drug use, and other serious antisocial behaviors. We have experienced first-hand how mass unemployment is eroding the social cohesion. It is not as if we had faith in the ruling gang to begin with, but re-engineering of our social fabric executed by Cuban agents made it much worse. This led to a breakdown of social trust and made it difficult for communities to come together to solve problems. Mass unemployment can have a significant impact on a nation’s political landscape, and Venezuela is (sadly) one of the most relevant examples in modern History. Discontent with the handling of the economy can lead to political instability and even regime change (as it is already happening, happily!). Populist politicians often exploit the economic anxieties of unemployed workers to gain power, promising easy solutions to complex problems.

• Unsustainable Debt: A national debt that exceeds a country’s capacity to repay. An enormous external debt has exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis. This situation brings along a payload of negative consequences that have made our circumstances even worse. Let’s define this: debt is considered unsustainable when a country is incapable of paying back the interest or principal on its loans. This situation is known to generate a crisis involving both economic and societal aspects. The government is then forced to allocate a large portion of its resources to debt service, rather than investing in areas such as health, education, and infrastructure.

Traditionally, our country has experienced a weakness in the public sector regarding these three areas mentioned above. The trend then goes downhill with time, as the real responsible for the crisis are those controlling all the aspects of the public financial system, including the monetary policy. There are no experts that want to be involved in that mess, by the way; most of the “official” public “servants” with middle rank and choice makers don’t have neither the skills nor the will to do something to improve the situation. Their only goal is to perform as financial operators to help them in the cover-ups. The 100% control of the price of the USD is what makes our Central Bank a joke.

• Financial Market Collapse: The collapse of stock markets and a general loss of confidence in financial institutions. Mind you, in the most recent post-apo movie that sparkled our interest in one of the streaming sites, one of the main characters could read something was happening…in the charts of the stock exchanges of the world. I have read some good fiction, and it’s quite interesting to see how some of the characters are related to the financial world and can read the writings and make some predictions.

Social Indicators

• Increased Violence: crime, civil unrest, and social conflict are (obviously) among the most visible.

As a side note, why wait for this to happen? Any sane prepper should know that leaving early to avoid a potentially harmful situation is the way to go. You don’t have a place to Bug Out? Can you Bug in safely for a while until things clear up? Can you Bug out at all? Include here the State-sponsored actions to “pacify” the country and you will see how advanced the collapse is. Another failed State that we should be looking at is Cuba. The collapse is total there. Over one million people left in 2023 only. 

Add this book to your library to keep all the Organic Prepper articles on dangerous times in your library.

• Mass Migration: A large-scale exodus of people seeking better living conditions. I consider this as the most painful indicator. Being part of these statistics, I can say I share encountered feelings regarding this. This is not only the most painful but the most visible. If things were livable, people wouldn’t flee away.

• Family Breakdown: A rise in family disintegration and social issues like poverty, mental health issues like depression, and substance abuse. Another catastrophic effect of all the circumstances mentioned above.

• Infrastructure Collapse: Failures in essential services such as electricity, water, and sanitation.

• Erosion of Trust: A widespread loss of confidence in government, businesses, and other institutions. This should have disappeared in Venezuela like back in the early 60s. The influence of the red Caribbean gang dates from that era, indeed.

Political Indicators

• Political Instability: Weak governance, frequent regime changes, and internal conflict.

• Corruption: Widespread corruption at all levels of government.

• Human Rights Abuses: Restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution, and state-sponsored violence.

Environmental Indicators

• Environmental Degradation: Severe pollution, deforestation, and biodiversity loss.

• Resource Depletion: Scarcity of essential resources like water and energy.

• Natural Disasters: Increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters.

It’s crucial to note that these indicators often interact and can exacerbate one another.

A total collapse is typically a gradual process, marked by a series of interconnected events. It won´t be like your typical Hollywood collapse, where the family is someday having dinner or hanging out in a mall and the next fighting for survival with a horde of…whatever your favorite monster is.

While it may seem like a distant possibility, understanding the warning signs can help mitigate risks and prepare for potential challenges.

This is not intended to be a political article; on the contrary.

I found it amazing to learn that a war does not have to be necessarily declared; it can unfold without such formalities.

If it’s like this, then I’m afraid we should be pretty much aware of the facts, and the actions of everyone involved in such plays; and pay much less attention to the biased mainstream media nonsense.

A remarkable education success story in Western Maryland plays out in the heart of Trump’s coal country—where “Trump Digs Coal” signs lined the roads during this past election cycle. It’s a heartwarming story of how community, family, traditionalism, and conservative values come together and foster the proper learning environment that allows children at one of Maryland’s poorest elementary schools to achieve massive education outperformance compared with hundreds of other schools in the state. 

Investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore visited Crellin Elementary School, Maryland’s westernmost school, just about a mile from West Virginia. It’s a Title 1 school, meaning it has a massive concentration of impoverished students. Of the more than 1,400 public schools in the entire state, 464 are considered Title 1.

A public school w/ bee hives, an amphitheater built from coal, hemlock forest, apple orchard, greenhouse, vegetable garden, goats, sheep, chickens, wetlands & a trout stream.

It’s Maryland’s only high-poverty 5-Star school.@FOXBaltimore @GCPSHappeningshttps://t.co/Fat6gYWOlM

— Chris Papst (@chrispapst) November 7, 2024

Of those 464 schools, Crellin is the only one earning a five-star educational excellence rating from the Maryland State Department of Education. 

Even though the children come from some of the poorest households in the state and possibly the nation, the educational miracle at Crellin is very simple: community. 

“We took the walls down to the school and open it up to the community. So, the community is part of our school,” Principal Dana McCauley told Papst. 

Papst’s report continues:

Principal Dana McCauley knows her school, Crellin Elementary, in Garrett County is unique. She knows Crellin is Maryland’s westernmost school, just about a mile from West Virginia. She also knows it’s likely the only one in the state where elementary students walk chickens at recess.

“The kids have a stake in the school?” Asked Project Baltimore’s Chris Papst.

“Oh yes. Yeah. So, they’re responsible for there’s many chores that need done around here. Many chores,” explained McCauley.

“The kids do chores?” Replied Papst.

“They do chores. Yes,” replied McCauley. “There’s all the barn work that needs done. The stalls have to be cleaned, the animals need fed and watered every day. The eggs need collected.”

So, how does this translate to educational success? McCauley says the students feel like the school is “their place” and “they’re invested in it”.

…

So, how did that happen? The story begins 23 years ago.

McCauley has been leading Crellin Elementary since 2001. Not just as its principal, but also as a teacher. And it was in that role that, 23 years ago, she made a life-changing discovery.

“I remember my first year here sitting in class watching some of the kids. And then going outside with them, going down to the stream and watching some of our squirrel-iest kids in the classroom thrive. I thought, there’s got to be something to this,” McCauley told Project Baltimore.

Soon after, McCauley learned Crellin sits on the polluted land of an abandoned coal mine where acid mine draining has colored the rocks orange. At first, to McCulley, that seemed like a big problem. But it was within the rocks that she had an idea.

“It’s good to not know what you don’t know. That makes sense? So, you’re not afraid of the obstacles because you’re not even aware of what they might be,” explained McCauley.

On a whim, McCauley gathered community support and petitioned Garrett County, which awarded the school ownership of a six-acre site of the mine to clean up. That was the moment Crellin’s unique story began.

“We took the walls down to the school and open it up to the community. So, the community is part of our school,” said McCauley.

Over the next few years, the students, staff, parents and neighbors worked to restore the land. Now, there’s thriving wetlands, a hemlock forest and trout stream, which is all made possible by a limestone retention pond the school built to naturally filter and clean the acid mine drainage.

Once the school had fully cleaned the six-acres, McCauley expanded her vision. Maryland does not have sanctioned agricultural programs for elementary schools. So, in 2013, McCauley started her own. Today, Crellin has an apple orchard, greenhouse, vegetable garden and multiple barns with goats, sheep and – of course – chickens.

Parents, according to McCauley, built the hen house. And now it is maintained by the school community, which includes the students.

You see, where the students work is also where they learn. A classroom amphitheater is built from a giant pile of coal covered in dirt. Class is held in the greenhouse all winter long.

Crellin Elementary is a public school. But McCauley says no public education dollars were used for any of the school’s agricultural or coal mine reclamation projects. Over 23 years, McCauley has applied for dozens of local, state and federal agricultural and reclamation grants. She won most of them, collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars for the school and its many projects.

“It’s a lot of work,” McCauley told Project Baltimore.

Work that over two decades has culminated in Crellin’s five-star rating which makes this school one of one in Maryland.

“Is what you’re doing here. Could it be done at any school?” Questioned Papst.

“I think it’d be different. Because this is unique to our community,” explained McCauley. “Because it’s not about the stream. It’s not about the stream. It’s about those who help make that all possible. That’s what it’s all about.”

The education miracle in the mountains of Maryland, at one of the state’s poorest elementary schools, shows that massive budgets aren’t necessary to improve test scores. Instead, community, family, tradition, hard work, and conservative values create an environment that money can’t always buy, uplifting these children spiritually and setting them up for success.

Must Watch: 

On the opposite side of the state, in the liberal hell-hole of Baltimore City, education budgets for the city are nearly $2bln annually, yet test scores are some of the worst in the nation. Papst has led an investigation into a massive grade-switching scandal in the school system.

The educational miracle happening at Crellin should be examined by the folks on Trump’s transition team, some of whom will be lining the education department. Apparently, success can be achieved with local communities—not necessarily by throwing endless amounts of taxpayer funds at school systems hoping for test scores to rise.