Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The EPoch Times,

U.S. authorities thwarted an Iranian plot to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump, new documents reveal.

The Justice Department unsealed criminal charges on Nov. 8 against three men who it is alleged were involved in a murder-for-iran network orchestrated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the United States designates as a terrorist organization.

“The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in an associated statement.

“We will not stand for the Iranian regime’s attempts to endanger the American people and America’s national security.”

The Justice Department said that authorities arrested Carlisle Rivera and Jonathon Loadholt in New York, and that a third man, Farhad Shakeri, remained at large and was believed to be in Iran.

Shakeri immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported in or about 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for a robbery conviction.

The criminal complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan alleges that an unnamed official in the IRGC instructed a Shakeri in September to put together a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump.

Shakeri was unable to create a plan by then, the complaint said, and the official told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him then.

Shakeri then went to work building a network of accomplices, offering $100,000 to locate and kill Trump and other individuals of U.S. and Israeli origin, according to the complaint.

“We have also charged and arrested two individuals who we allege were recruited as part of that network to silence and kill, on U.S. soil, an American journalist who has been a prominent critic of the regime,” Garland said.

The plot, with the charges unsealed just days after Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, reflects what federal officials have described as ongoing efforts by Iran to target U.S. government officials, including Trump, on U.S. soil. The Justice Department’s statement said that these efforts include assault, kidnapping, and murder, both to repress and silence dissidents critical of the Iranian regime and to take vengeance for the January 2020 death of then-IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a Trump-ordered U.S. drone strike in Baghdad.

“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in an associated statement.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a designated foreign terrorist organization—has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won’t be tolerated.”

The once-lucrative European auto market is an utter disaster after numerous brands, including Volkswagen, Mercedes, Aston Martin, BMW, and Stellantis, have warned about a downturn and EV programs hemorrhaging cash while China eats their lunch with cheap EVs. 

Providing more insight into the downturn, Autoblog’s Stephen Fogel penned a note with commentary on each auto brand and his thoughts on whether they will survive the ‘EV Apocaplyse.’ 

“The path to electrification is a very difficult one, for both legacy automakers and EV startups. The recent plateauing of EV demand has put additional pressure on manufacturers that have gone all in on EVs. For those that haven’t, it may be too late,” Fogel said. 

He noted, “Projecting into the future, companies that don’t yet have EVs consumers want to buy are unlikely to make it.” 

Here’s the list: 

• Tesla, the most successful EV startup, has the benefit of a decade-plus head start, which they have used to leapfrog their legacy competition, unburdened by the traditional way of doing things. With an international production base, advanced software-based electronic architecture, and direct-to-consumer sales, Tesla has blazed its own trail and generated the production volume needed to succeed.

• Ford: While the Mustang Mach-e is a credible product, F-150 Lightning production will soon be shut down until next year. Its three-row SUV has been postponed and Ford’s “skunkworks” low-cost EV has not yet been revealed. It doesn’t look good for Ford.

• Lincoln: There are zero Lincoln EVs at this point.

• Chrysler: With a single hybrid minivan and nothing else in the lineup, Chrysler’s going nowhere fast.

• Dodge: How many Charger EVs will be sold to those who love the ICE versions, at $61K and up? Are there any other Dodge EVs coming?

• Ram: The Ram 1500 REV may solve truck owners’ range and towing issues, but at an estimated $58,000-$85,000, will it be embraced by the average truck buyer?

• Alfa Romeo & Fiat: They couldn’t make it here as ICE brands, how will EVs help?

• Maserati: Sales are way down and the boss just got fired. Maser’s got big problems that EVs won’t solve (yes, there is the Folgore).

• Toyota: Regardless of its leadership in hybrids, the company has yet to produce a desirable EV. Can they get their act together in time?

• Lexus: Where’s this brand’s luxury EV leadership? A rebadged Busy Forks doesn’t count.

• Nissan: They blew their lead after the Leaf came out, and the Ariya is far from compelling.

• Infiniti: No EVs. Sales are down significantly the past three quarters. Who’s even shopping them?

• Mazda: The MX-30 was a compliance car. Where is the Mazda EV that’s as good as their ICE vehicles?

• Subaru: It will take more than a so-so Toyota-based EV to appeal to Subaru’s fans.

• Jaguar: Their plan to become an EV-only, low-production, high-end brand is extremely risky.

• Land Rover: Nothing yet. Will parent Tata put up the cash to fund LR’s EV transition?

• Mercedes-Benz: Benz’ EV sales recently dropped 30%, thanks to Chinese competition and high production costs in Germany. The current approach isn’t working.

• Volkswagen: VW has yet to build any desirable, reasonably-priced EVs, which may ultimately be developed in China after their German plants close down. Not looking good.

• Audi: As goes VW, so goes Audi. Just announced closing of its EV plant in Belgium.

• Porsche: They are going all in with EV Macan, Boxster, and Cayman. Will enthusiasts bite? Will Chinese Hyper-EVs undercut them on price?

• Vinfast: Could any EV brand have had a worse start in the US market?

• Rivian: Hoping to reach 57,000 R1 sales this year. If they run out of cash before they get their smaller, higher-volume vehicles out, they’re finished.

• Lucid: Has yet to break the 10,000 vehicles per year mark. If the Saudis tire of pumping money in, and volumes remain low, they won’t last long.

• Polestar: Delivered a total of 32,300 cars worldwide in the first three quarters of 2024. Why are they separate from Volvo and how does this help?

In the US, President-elect Donald Trump’s historic victory over Vice President Kamala Harris will likely result in a new policy shift that will reduce or eliminate vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency.

The administration change could give legacy automakers focusing on petrol-powered vehicles a much longer operating time instead of pushing companies like Ford and GM into ‘all-electric futures’ by the mid-2030s. 

Tesla’s Elon Musk noted in July: “Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla. Also, remove subsidies from all industries!”

Does Tesla come out as the winner?

Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov and Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

President-elect Donald Trump will reclaim the presidency next year with a wide-ranging agenda for America and a significant electoral mandate to implement his plans.

Having already won 295 Electoral College votes by the afternoon of Nov. 6, Trump was on track to capture the national popular vote and sweep all seven battleground states.

The president-elect was ahead by nearly 4.7 million votes in the national vote as of 11:16 p.m. on Nov. 6 – a 3.3 percentage point margin. He is on track to best his own national totals from 2016 and 2020, having made significant gains in broad swaths of the country, notably in safe blue states, including New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic opponent, conceded the election in a speech in Washington on the afternoon of Nov. 6. A spokesman for the Trump campaign said Harris called Trump to congratulate him earlier in the day and that “both leaders agreed on the importance of unifying the country.”

Trump’s commanding performance was buttressed by that of the Republican Party, which recaptured the U.S. Senate and was well on its way to winning the House of Representatives. As of 10:39 p.m. on Nov. 6, Decision Desk HQ projected that the GOP had a 90 percent chance to retain control of the lower chamber.

“This was a movement like nobody has ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time,” Trump said in his victory speech.

Should Republicans win both the House and Senate, Trump will face a different Congress from the one he did in his first term that started in 2017. Now, his allies are in charge of the House Republican caucus, and all but a few of his biggest intra-party detractors have been ousted in closely-watched primary contests. In the Senate, the long-time leader of the Republicans, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is stepping down and setting the stage for a leadership contest all but sure to be decided by Trump’s endorsement.

With allies in both chambers, the president-elect is less likely to run into the legislative roadblocks that characterized his first term in office.

The Senate, in particular, will be key to confirming Trump’s headline Cabinet picks, which would have seemed impossible eight years ago—particularly Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who Trump wants to task with tackling federal food and health agencies.

As the Trump transition team prepares to take the White House, Americans can expect major changes in how the government handles the economy, foreign affairs, illegal immigration, tax policy, and health care.

Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine before Inauguration Day and to launch a massive operation to deport illegal immigrants. As president, he will have the power to achieve both without the help of Congress. The same goes for rolling back the tailpipe emissions rule, which Republicans call a de-facto electric vehicle mandate.

“We’re going to help our country heal. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly,” Trump said.

“We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country.”

The president-elect will have to work with Congress to deliver on some of his other promises, including ending taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income, as well as expanding the child tax credit. Other provisions in his tax plan include reducing corporate taxes to 15 percent from 21 percent, maintaining lower individual taxes and permanently expanding the $2,000 child tax credit.

On the campaign trail, Trump has floated the idea of ending taxation altogether and funding the government through tariffs on foreign goods. He has singled out China for 60 percent import tariffs and, a day before the general election, said he would threaten Mexico with a 25 percent tariff to get the southern neighbor’s help in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants.

To tackle inflation, Trump would boost domestic energy production by increasing oil drilling on public lands and offering tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. He said he would double down on the deregulation agenda he embraced in the first term, with a requirement to cut 10 current regulations for each new one.

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Sept. 9, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Trump plans to bring on billionaire Elon Musk to head a new Department of Government Efficiency, which Musk has said will be key to getting inflation under control.

In addition to Musk and Kennedy, Trump’s picks for his Cabinet are likely to include some of the Republicans who challenged him in the primary election, such as North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, are also likely at the front of the line for posts. Gabbard aligned with Trump’s opposition to so-called forever wars abroad. Shanahan is an attorney with experience in Silicon Valley.

The president-elect’s picks will be closely watched because many of the people he selected during his first term ended up turning against him, especially in the aftermath of the contested 2020 election.

Trump challenged the outcome of the 2020 race in seven battleground states and refused to bow out of the race until Jan. 6, 2021, when a crowd of his supporters clashed with police on Capitol grounds and breached the building while Congress certified the results of the election.

After Trump left the White House on Jan. 20, 2021, the Democrats used the events of Jan. 6 to impeach Trump in the House of Representatives, making him the first president to face two impeachments. The Senate exonerated Trump in both cases.

A Trump supporter waves a giant flag outside the White House on Nov. 6, 2024. Former President Donald Trump on Nov. 6 won a sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential election. Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

The impeachment was only the first in a series of unprecedented events that ultimately led to Trump’s comeback four years later. Trump was banned from several social media platforms, had his residence raided by federal agents, faced several indictments on the state and federal levels, posed for a mugshot taken at a Georgia jail, survived two assassination attempts, and went up against two Democratic Party nominees in a single election.

In the face of the challenges, he ran a successful campaign, took control of the Republican National Committee, beat GOP fundraising records, and made gains with parts of the electorate long-aligned with the Democrats, including Hispanics and young men.

“God spared my life for a reason,” Trump said during his victory speech on election night, referring to the assassination attempts on his life.

Trump’s 2024 campaign leaned into interviews with internet influencers, including Joe Rogan, the Nelk Boys, and Logan Paul. The strategy appears to have paid off in attracting young men. Exit polls by Edison Research show Trump gaining 6 percentage points with the group compared to 2020.

One campaign staple remained unchanged from Trump’s first run for the White House: the rallies. The president-elect held 119 of these signature events during the 2022–2024 campaign season. As he did in 2016 and 2020, he held the final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Trump rallies have evolved over the years to include elements of entertainment and visual aids. Some of the final rallies of the 2024 campaign, including a jam-packed rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, included live opera performances.

In Trump’s speeches, social media messages, and campaign ads, he focused on the three crises facing the Biden–Harris administration: inflation, the border crisis, and, more recently, the wars in Ukraine and Israel. The current administration has managed to get inflation under control, but illegal border crossings have remained stubbornly high and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East appear to be spiraling out of control.

Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine during the transition period between November and January. He has repeatedly said his top priority on the first day in office would be to seal the southern border with Mexico.

Path to Nomination

To win the 2024 Republican nomination, Trump defeated more than a dozen contenders without participating in any of the four Republican presidential debates.

Several contenders jumped into the race early in 2023 after Trump declared his candidacy in November 2022. By the fall of 2023, the field of candidates began to shrink. Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, withdrew from the race in October 2023. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) dropped out the following month.

Trump comfortably won the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, nearly 30 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out immediately after the caucuses. DeSantis quit the race several days later.

Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, hung on until March before dropping out.

Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pa., on Oct. 29, 2024. Arjun Singh/The Epoch Times

From Trump Tower to the White House

Now 78 years old and making his third presidential run, Trump started his rise to fame and fortune in his native New York. After leaving the White House in 2021, he now lives in Florida at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.

Following in the footsteps of his father, Fred Trump, he built an international real estate empire. Donald Trump became a household name during the 2000s while starring in the reality TV series “The Apprentice.” During the show, he coined his famous phrase “You’re fired!” while axing a contestant at the end of each show. Trump also has authored several books, including 1987’s “The Art of the Deal.”

Before he became the standard-bearer for a revamped version of the Republican Party, Trump had changed his political affiliation several times.

In 2004, he told CNN, “In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat.”

He said it seemed to him that the economy was healthier under Democrats. Trump switched to the Republican Party in 2011, records show.

In 2014, Trump took steps toward running as governor of New York but decided against it. The following year, he pursued politics in earnest, ending years of speculation about a Trump presidential run.

On June 16, 2015, he and his wife, Melania Trump, rode down an escalator at Trump Tower in Manhattan to announce his candidacy.

That day, he debuted his “Make America Great Again” slogan, echoing the “Let’s Make America Great Again” phrase that Republican Ronald Reagan used during his successful 1980 presidential campaign.

In 2016, Trump became the unlikely victor of the presidential election, making him the first U.S. president with no prior experience in public office or as a military commander.

Security in front of Trump Tower in New York City on Sept. 26, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Throughout the campaign season, polls showed Trump trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton, a longtime politician and wife of former President Bill Clinton. That pattern continued in 2020 and 2024, with Trump consistently outperforming polls.

During his presidency, Trump fought a barrage of political attacks that began immediately after he took the oath of office in 2017.

He became the third U.S. president to be impeached, and he stands alone as the sole president to be impeached twice. The Senate acquitted him both times.

During the first two years of his term, the president and dozens of people close to him were ensnared in the so-called Russian-collusion inquiry headed by special counsel Robert Mueller. The special counsel concluded the investigation with a report that did not document any evidence of collusion.

In the final year of his presidency, Trump grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic and a summer of race riots as he campaigned for reelection. His Democratic opponent was Joe Biden, a longtime senator who served as vice president under President Barack Obama.

A Trump White House statement said his presidential accomplishments included a strong economy with low interest rates, “massive deregulation” to spur business growth, and taking “historic action to promote peace in the Middle East.” He was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in the Middle East.

Trump was born in New York City on June 14, 1946; his parents, Fred Trump and Mary Trump, née MacLeod, had five children. Trump himself has five children through three marriages, and 10 grandchildren.

He received his education at the New York Military Academy, a private boarding school, followed by Fordham University and the Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in economics.

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

A Texas federal judge on Thursday struck down a Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) rule that allows illegal immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens to apply for residency.

The ruling sets aside a “parole in place” process announced in August that would have meant the illegal immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens could apply for legal status and temporarily remain in the United States. If approved, they could then pursue a green card and, eventually, U.S. citizenship, if they met certain eligibility criteria.

The criteria included having lived in the United States continuously for at least 10 years, having no disqualifying criminal history, and being married to a U.S. citizen by June 17.

In August, the DHS said that the government was trying to keep families together by granting parole in place on a case-by-case basis to eligible illegal immigrants, which they said would be a public benefit of promoting unity and stability of families.

Shortly after the rule was announced, 16 states, led by Texas, filed a lawsuit arguing that the program would encourage illegal immigration and increase financial burdens on states through health care and law enforcement costs.

On Aug. 26, U.S. District Judge J. Campbell Barker, who was appointed by President-elect Donald Trump during his first presidential term, halted the rule pending the outcome of the case.

In his Thursday final decision, Barker wrote that the DHS lacks authority to grant parole in place to illegal immigrants or “to deem parole ‘in place’ as used there to be parole ‘into the United States.’”

His judgment invalidated the agency’s action, published on Aug. 20 in the Federal Register, opening applications for this pathway.

Barker’s final judgment effectively ends the parole program, stating that DHS’s authority does not extend to the interpretation of “parole” outlined by the policy.

Although the judgment denies other relief sought by the plaintiffs, it leaves the door open for further legal challenges on similar grounds. Additionally, the court ordered the federal government to bear court costs associated with the suit.

President Joe Biden announced the Keeping Families Together initiative in June, shortly after he took a different executive action to significantly restrict asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. This initiative uses a federal law known as the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows federal officials to grant parole to illegal immigrants already in the United States.

DHS officials sought to use this authority to protect certain illegal immigrants who are married to U.S. citizens. The department also said that the policy would increase the economic prosperity of U.S. communities, strengthen diplomatic relationships with partner countries in the region, and reduce the strain on limited U.S. government resources.

It was estimated that about 500,000 of the 765,000 illegal immigrants who are in the United States and married to U.S. citizens were eligible for the extension of the parole authority.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has issued a formal congratulations to Donald Trump for his victory in the US presidential election, following some rare positive remarks also made by Russia’s Vladmir Putin.

Lukashenko signaled his support and openness to seeking the end of the Ukraine war by favorable negotiated settlement. “If he [ends the war], we’ll petition for the Nobel Prize. He’ll be rewarded for doing a good deed,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying in state-run Belta.

Among the more interesting statements was Lukashenko’s observation that “America was ready to elect a Black president, but America is not ready to elect a woman.”

But of Trump, the Belarusian strongman described, “They shot him, they pressured him, they wanted to put him in jail, but he bulldozed through.”

The backdrop to the remarks wherein Lukashenko hailed Trump was certainly interesting:

Speaking at a woodchopping event, Lukashenko called Trump a “powerhouse” who managed to return to the White House after what he described as a “kind of an unsuccessful” first term between 2017 and 2021.

This was very similar to Putin’s assessment the same day (Thursday), wherein the Russian President said that Trump acted “like a man” following the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania last summer.

“His behavior at the time of the attempt on his life made an impression on me,” Putin said at the Valdai Club in the Black Sea city of Sochi. “He turned out to be a courageous man. And it’s not just about the raised hand and the call to fight for his and their common ideals… He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a man.”

So now it appears that Putin and Lukashenko agree that Trump represents the best hope that Washington could get more reasonable in its approach to the proxy war in Ukraine.

While Belarus has not directly entered the conflict, it has allowed Russian troops and assets to be stationed within its borders, and has facilitated the launch of drones against Ukraine from its territory. Russian tactical nukes are also widely reported to be stationed there.

The Belarusian leader still emphasized in the Thursday remarks that achieving peace “is not a unilateral process” and would likely require the cooperation of other international partners.

Meanwhile, Trump this week signaled there could be a potential phone call between and Putin soon. The Russian leader surprisingly said Thursday, “It wouldn’t be beneath me to call him myself.” And Trump in turn told NBC news, “I think we’ll speak.”

This type of positive dialogue while the Ukraine war rages was unthinkable under the Biden-Harris administration, and for that reason the Kremlin was very closely watching the US election.

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

A federal investigative agency is requesting disciplinary action for Neera Tanden, who serves as one of President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisors, over her allegedly violating a law that prohibits solicitations for partisan political candidates.

The agency, known as the U.S. Office of Special Counsel (OSC), announced the complaint on Nov. 7 while highlighting recent posts Tanden made on the social media platform X. According to the agency’s complaint, Tanden violated the Hatch Act by posting or reposting solicitations for donations to Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, as well as multiple Democratic congressional candidates.

“Congress created a rule banning all federal employees from fundraising for political candidates,“ Special Counsel Hampton Dellinger said.

“The Hatch Act contains no escape hatch for White House officials.”

The White House did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time. According to Politico, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said Tanden took “compliance with the Hatch Act seriously.”

Tanden served as White House staff secretary before Biden promoted her last year to be one of his domestic policy advisors. Biden had nominated her to lead his Office of Management and Budget, but she backed out amid scrutiny over other social media posts.

In its Nov. 6 complaint, the special counsel office said it notified the White House Counsel’s Office on Aug. 30 that Tanden was in violation of the Hatch Act after her post two days prior promoting four candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Tanden eventually removed that post on Sept. 3 but two days later reposted a video of actor Michael Keaton asking for funds to support Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in his campaign for reelection, the complaint said. In September, subsequent posts from Tanden promoted solicitations for Democrat Lucas Kunce, who was running to unseat Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.); Democratic House candidate Rebecca Cooke of Wisconsin; and Democratic House candidate Will Rollins of California.

“Each of Tanden’s three subsequent posts … was also made after Tanden was notified that making such posts violated the Hatch Act prohibition against soliciting political contributions,” the OSC’s complaint read.

The OSC’s complaint requested that the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) penalize Tanden under a federal law that outlines removal, suspension, monetary fines, or “reprimand” as potential punishments.

Bates reportedly pointed to a 2021 report wherein the special counsel office raised constitutional concerns with the MSPB disciplining individuals directly appointed by the president. That report said that OSC “may not pursue disciplinary action through the MSPB” for commissioned officers, or those appointed by the president, and Senate-confirmed presidential appointees.

For both types of appointees, the OSC said it “must report its findings to the president” and allow the president to take appropriate action.

Reporting to the president was the course of action the OSC took in response to alleged Hatch Act violations by Kellyanne Conway, former counselor to then-President Donald Trump. In 2018, the agency said it concluded its investigation into Conway.

“Considering the president’s constitutional authority, the proper course of action, in the case of violations of the Hatch Act by such officers, is to refer the violations to the president,” its report to Trump said at the time.

The OSC did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time.

The OSC announced in September that it submitted a report to Biden over an alleged Hatch Act violation by Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, who expressed support for Biden winning a second term.

The agency added that it reached settlement agreements entailing unpaid suspensions for an employee within the Department of Commerce and a U.S. attorney’s office.

“While OSC deals with some close calls in its Hatch Act enforcement, federal employees soliciting donations for a political campaign is express advocacy and a clear-cut violation,“ Dellinger said as part of the announcement. ”We urge federal employees not to cross these brightest of lines.”

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and China stimulus disappointing.

For the latest example look no further than the plan revealed this morning by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, which approved a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt swap package for local authorities to refinance “hidden” local debt onto public balance sheets. Funds for that program – telegraphed last month but without a price tag or timeframe – will be provided through 2028, they said, after the move was authorized by the nation’s top lawmaking body.

The details of the 10 trillion (but really 12 trillion program) are as follows:

• 1) A one-off increase in the 6tn yuan local government debt issuance, over 3 years (2024-26);
• 2) 4tn yuan special LGB issuance under the annual quota, over 5 years (2024-29); and

Additionally, the government will guarantee to pay back 2tn yuan implicit debt related to shantytown redevelopment due in 2029 and after.

In total, according to the Chinese MoF, the implicit local government debt will be reduced from RMB14.2tn to RMB2.3tn, a total of 12tn.

While policymakers didn’t announce measures to directly stimulate domestic demand, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised “more forceful” fiscal policy next year, signaling bolder steps – and another round of stimulus – could come after Trump’s inauguration in January. The US president-elect has threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese goods that could decimate trade between the world’s largest economies, and blight exports that have been a rare bright spot for the Asian nation this year.

Putting it together:

• The good news: this should reduce pressures from near-term debt repayment and lower debt-servicing costs, giving local governments more room to execute budgeted spending that’s needed to lift growth up to this year’s 5% target.
• The bad news: this was the bare minimum and came at the very low end of market expectations. That said, some have suggested that Beijing doesn’t want to burn all of its dry powder before it knows what anti-China measures Trump has in stock, so maybe just another reason to wait.

“Policymakers probably saw no need for a robust response to Trump’s victory before he takes office, given the relatively restrained post-election market response,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Next year is a different matter, but officials will take that as it comes.”

China has labeled local government debt one of the three “major economic and financial risks” facing his country, as regions divert money away from growth-boosting projects to repay their debt. Most of that money is tied to entities known as local government financing vehicles (or LGFVs), which borrow on behalf of provinces and cities to finance investment in infrastructure.

But local authorities have struggled to service those liabilities in recent years as the property crisis wiped out land sales they relied on for revenue. Officials at the briefing said the outstanding value of so-called hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan as of the end of 2023, far short of the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of at about 60 trillion yuan.

While markets shrugged off the measures, Lan called the package “a major policy decision taking into consideration international and domestic development environments.” Policymakers also took the rare step of raising local governments’ debt ceiling mid-year for the first time since 2015.

That increase in the debt limit will allow local governments to issue six trillion yuan in additional special bonds over three years to swap hidden debt, Lan said at the briefing. Regional authorities will be able to tap another total of 4 trillion yuan in special local bond quota to be approved in tranches over five years — including 2024 — for the same purpose, he added.

“To really have a positive for markets, you want to see something which is two trillion or above specifically talking about consumption-related stimulus,” Bernie Ahkong, CIO at UBS O’Connor Global Multi Strategy Alpha told Bloomberg TV.  

So was this a disappointment?

According to the market – with Chinese stock futures and the yuan both tumbling – a resounding yes, but as SocGen’s China strategist Wei Yao notes, it is more certainty on the forward looking part. Ahead of the meeting, SocGen had wondered if the debt swap could total over RMB10tn over next 3-4 years including the annual bond issuance quota. So the announced plan is slower but not smaller, and the bank didn’t expect the entire package to be clarified today. Then some may argue that the RMB4tn is not “additional”, but this statement can only be true if we had known about the debt issuance plan in the next five years. That is – is the 800bn per year really deducted from an already-set trajectory? No, not even the MOF knows what’s the fiscal package for next year.

The problem is that markets were happy to frontrun all this and more: China’s boldest stimulus blitz since the pandemic had sent onshore shares soaring by about 30% since September, thereby taking the pressure off officials to act immediately, which of course reflexively meant that Chinese stocks would immediately dump – as they did – putting more pressure to act! Those rate cuts, along with stock and housing market support pledges, have put President Xi Jinping back on track to hit this year’s growth goal of around 5%, without taking on piles of extra debt to reflate the economy.

In any case, investors had waited for weeks for the fiscal side of that campaign, with media reports stoking expectations for much more spending to stabilize the property market and boost consumption. Sure enough, disappointment was palpable at the start of the presser, with the offshore yuan weakening as much as 0.6% before paring the decline to 0.3% as the full scale of the package was known.

What is the impact on the economy?

The debt issuance will not fund new measures and the MOF pledges to contain growth in any new LGFV debt. But the swap will free up fiscal resources and allow local governments to function more normally. That is, local government will be much abler to carry out necessary spending, reduce unnecessary fines and penalties, and pay back arrears owed to the private sector.

It remains to see how the issuance schedule will look like. The imminent issuance of RMB2tn LGB to replacement implicit debt, confirmed today, will require liquidity injection worth 100bp RRR cuts. This could also be managed by PBoC’s liquidity operations.

What about stimulus?

Here China’s message seems to be “be patient and to be continued.” Markets were disappointed by the absence of any detail on anything else other than the local government debt. But as SocGen had cautioned, the SCNPC chooses to signal, rather than deliver, a more forceful fiscal budget in 2025. Regarding housing and bank recapitalization, the message today is that it’s being worked out quickly – if not as quickly as markets wanted to see. Indeed, the test of market patience can be problematic for confidence.

Market momentum aside, Beijing’s willingness to act to stop the deflationary spiral is still there, at least this is what Wei Yao is clinging some hope on. But clearly, Beijing wants to do things at its own pace. For one, the 2025 fiscal budget is not for now. The thinking may also be that:

1. The economy is showing more signs of bottoming out, and so there is less rush to top up stimulus for 2024.
2. There is still so much uncertainty around Trump tariffs – how much and when. Why show all the cards now? Indicatively, raising US tariff rate on Chinese goods from 20% currently to 60% could require RMB2-3tn additional fiscal stimulus to counter.

Then, what’s next?

• The banking recapitalization looks to be a bank-by-bank approach. And so, there should be details coming in the next few months, albeit likely in several batches.
• The 2025 fiscal budget will be the real deal to watch in terms of “additional” stimulus for domestic demand. If one doesn’t want to be disappointed again, then one might better not expect much detail before the year-end or even before March 5th NPC meeting next year. At the moment, we expect RMB2tn in special CGBs issuance (i.e. additionally) in 2025 to support demand, and more if we get to know the tariff plan by March.

Putting it together,  Beijing will do what’s necessary to counter tariff shocks and stop deflation at least over the next few years, regardless of the timing of policy announcements, but not at a pace dictated by markets. And while Beijing’s “policy put” is here to stay, Beijing’s patience is tricky for confidence.

Investors will now be looking to December for the next major window for bigger fiscal measures, when the 24-man Politburo will discuss the economy at a monthly meeting and policymakers will huddle at the annual Central Economic Work Conference. By then, officials could have greater clarity on Trump’s stance on tariffs, and more time to devise a fiscal strategy to fireproof the economy.

Officials could still unveil a “meaningful” fiscal package in the near term, according to Xiaojia Zhi, head of research at Credit Agricole CIB. Additional spending of 12 to 13 trillion yuan is possible in the next three years, to offset the impact from aggressive US tariff hikes, she added. That said, by now everyone who has bet on a “bigger than expected” stimulus by China has been badly burned, so it’s safe to assume that going forward the market will no longer react to promises but will instead demand actions.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.

Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.

Stock Markets

Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he will also push for a new corporate tax cut bill at a lower rate, nearer 15%, which was his original goal during his first term. While maintaining the corporate tax rate at 21% will help corporations maintain current profitability, a lower rate would benefit certain sectors like consumer discretionary and technology, where earnings are especially sensitive to tax changes. Financial stocks could also benefit from Trump’s history of deregulation, potentially leading to more mergers and investment opportunities. In fact, during his first term, the S&P 500 rose nearly 70%, partly due to those pro-business policies​.

Technically, the market remains on solid bullish underpinnings with very high levels of expected earnings growth heading into 2025. The bullish trend remains intact, and as discussed, the seasonally strong period of the year has started. Notably, corporate share buybacks and year-end performance chasing will support the last two months of the year.

“According to Morningstar, during the first half of 2024, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual and exchange-traded funds outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500 index. There are several reasons for this, including the lack of allocation to the ‘Magnificent 7,’ dispersion in returns of holdings, and lack of allocation to non-traditional assets.

However, there are risks.

It’s Not All Roses

Downside Risks: It’s not all rosy. A Trump presidency also brings risk from protectionist trade policies, including higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Those tariffs can potentially disrupt supply chains and increase costs for consumers and companies. Furthermore, if there are deep cuts to Government employment or spending, such would also slow economic growth more than expected and could offset the benefit of the extension of tax cuts. However, while those risks are present, the most significant risk is a reversion of economic growth, negatively impacting corporate profitability. The risk of investor disappointment is elevated with corporate profits already significantly deviated from long-term means.

Bottom Line: Stocks might see an initial jump on business-friendly promises but could face challenges if tariffs or unpredictable governance introduce economic shocks that suppress corporate profitability.

Bond Markets

Reasons for Caution: The bond market sold off sharply following the announcement of a Trump presidency. Such was not unsurprising, as bonds typically react negatively to narratives that might lead to higher inflation and rising interest rates. The initial knee-jerk reaction in the bond market was the assumption that the administration would emphasize deficit-financed spending on infrastructure or defense. Such spending would certainly lead to stronger economic growth and higher wages, which would sustain a higher level of inflation than witnessed from 2008 to 2020. The Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates to align with stronger economic growth if stronger growth occurs. In such an environment, bond prices would fall to accommodate higher economic activity. Such an outcome would stabilize bond prices at a higher “terminal rate,” reducing the potential upside in owning bonds.

As discussed in “Rates Are Going Much Higher?” there is an important correlation between wages, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. To wit:

“If we create a composite index of wages (which provides consumer purchasing power, aka demand), economic growth (the result of production and consumption), and inflation (the byproduct of increased demand from rising economic activity). We then compare that composite index to interest rates. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation between economic activity, inflation, and interest rates as rates respond to the drivers of inflation.”

Therefore, the bond market has a right to be concerned if a Trump presidency can foster a sustained level of higher economic growth and increased wages, creating a comparative inflation level. Such inflation would raise yields to align with those variables.

However, such will likely be harder to do than many think.

It’s The Economy

Potential Silver Linings: On the flip side, a Trump presidency must deal with high debt levels and a large fiscal deficit. Increases in the national debt were squandered on non-productive investments, and rising debt service results in a negative return on investment. Therefore, the larger the debt balance, the more economically destructive it is by diverting increasing amounts of dollars from productive assets to debt service. As interest rates increase, more federal tax revenue is diverted into servicing the national debt.

While many expect that Trump’s policies will lead to inflationary pressures, what should be evident is that increases in debt and deficits continue to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare. The result is lower, not higher, economic growth, inflation, and, ultimately, interest rates.

When put into perspective, one can understand the more significant problem plaguing economic growth. A long look at history clearly shows the negative impact of debt on economic growth.

Furthermore, changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems. Trump or any other president cannot effectively resolve those particular issues.

Overall Takeaway

Under a Trump presidency, the outlook for the stock and bond markets presents a blend of opportunities and challenges. The outcomes for both are heavily dependent on which policies become realities.

The one big concern for us at RIA Advisors continues to be a market that has enjoyed outsized returns over the past two years and deviates from long-term means. With the markets being overbought monthly and trading at the top of its long-term trend channel, expectations of further market upside seem overly confident without some correction first. Since 2009, the market has retested the 4-year moving average numerous times. Such is a normal and healthy process for an ongoing bull market, and a mean reversion should be expected at some point in the future. However, such an event isn’t likely between now and year-end.

Furthermore, market predictions hinge on the balance between growth and inflation. While Trump has many policies on his wish list, those policies must be passed by a heavily bipartisan Congress. With only slim majorities to work with, there is a risk of defection on some bills, particularly by the “Freedom Caucus,” which would oppose large deficit spending bills.

Lastly, stocks could rally on tax cuts but might stumble if tariffs weigh heavily on global trade. Bonds could indeed face headwinds, but the “3-Ds” of debts, deficits, and demographics will continue to plague economic growth. While there was an initial surge in stocks and a sell-off in bonds on the announcement of a Trump presidency, there is still a very long road ahead that investors must navigate. Fed policy, economics, earnings and corporate profitability all pose risk to longer-term outlooks.

Investors should stay informed and consider a diversified approach, as the next presidency promises to bring both opportunities and risks across asset classes.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Turncoat Michael Cohen, who vowed to leave the United States if Trump won the election, was hilariously mocked during a livestream when viewers kept imposing a turkey filter over his head.

The disbarred lawyer and former Trump “fixer” pled guilty to lying to Congress in 2018 and later turned on Trump to testify against him during Trump’s hush money criminal trial back in May.

In September, Cohen revealed that he was working on getting a new passport and changing his name before fleeing the country if Trump was victorious.

“I’m out of here,” Cohen he told MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace. “I’m already working on a foreign passport with a completely different name.”

During a livestream after the election, Cohen angrily asserted that he had changed his mind and would now be staying in America.

🤣I’m Dying…Michael Cohen getting trolled during livestream.🤣 pic.twitter.com/efiixLElzE

— Still🏝️Roaming (@roaming_rn) November 8, 2024

However, the funniest part of the clip is that viewers kept using an Instagram filter of a Turkey and superimposing it over Cohen’s head.

Cohen seemingly didn’t know how to turn the filter option off and became increasingly irate at being mocked.

“Can we stop with that? I don’t appreciate it, I don’t like the stupid Turkeys, let’s just knock that stupid shit off please,” Cohen insisted.

“I did, I said I was leaving, and then the following day, get that through your dumb heads, the following day, I turned around and I said that there’s no chance in the world that I’m leaving,” he said, adding, “I’m not leaving anywhere, you leave!”

Cohen continued to have turkeys superimposed over his head as he tried to use his finger to block the screen.

“It’s my country and I have every right, every single right…alright, two seconds, I’m gonna end up blocking this idiot,” Cohen said looking exasperated as viewers continued to make him look like a complete idiot.

Trump winning the election has unleashed a deluge of golden content that will keep the MAGA movement laughing all through the winter.

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