Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

A federal investigative agency is requesting disciplinary action for Neera Tanden, who serves as one of President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisors, over her allegedly violating a law that prohibits solicitations for partisan political candidates.

The agency, known as the U.S. Office of Special Counsel (OSC), announced the complaint on Nov. 7 while highlighting recent posts Tanden made on the social media platform X. According to the agency’s complaint, Tanden violated the Hatch Act by posting or reposting solicitations for donations to Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, as well as multiple Democratic congressional candidates.

“Congress created a rule banning all federal employees from fundraising for political candidates,“ Special Counsel Hampton Dellinger said.

“The Hatch Act contains no escape hatch for White House officials.”

The White House did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time. According to Politico, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said Tanden took “compliance with the Hatch Act seriously.”

Tanden served as White House staff secretary before Biden promoted her last year to be one of his domestic policy advisors. Biden had nominated her to lead his Office of Management and Budget, but she backed out amid scrutiny over other social media posts.

In its Nov. 6 complaint, the special counsel office said it notified the White House Counsel’s Office on Aug. 30 that Tanden was in violation of the Hatch Act after her post two days prior promoting four candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Tanden eventually removed that post on Sept. 3 but two days later reposted a video of actor Michael Keaton asking for funds to support Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in his campaign for reelection, the complaint said. In September, subsequent posts from Tanden promoted solicitations for Democrat Lucas Kunce, who was running to unseat Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.); Democratic House candidate Rebecca Cooke of Wisconsin; and Democratic House candidate Will Rollins of California.

“Each of Tanden’s three subsequent posts … was also made after Tanden was notified that making such posts violated the Hatch Act prohibition against soliciting political contributions,” the OSC’s complaint read.

The OSC’s complaint requested that the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) penalize Tanden under a federal law that outlines removal, suspension, monetary fines, or “reprimand” as potential punishments.

Bates reportedly pointed to a 2021 report wherein the special counsel office raised constitutional concerns with the MSPB disciplining individuals directly appointed by the president. That report said that OSC “may not pursue disciplinary action through the MSPB” for commissioned officers, or those appointed by the president, and Senate-confirmed presidential appointees.

For both types of appointees, the OSC said it “must report its findings to the president” and allow the president to take appropriate action.

Reporting to the president was the course of action the OSC took in response to alleged Hatch Act violations by Kellyanne Conway, former counselor to then-President Donald Trump. In 2018, the agency said it concluded its investigation into Conway.

“Considering the president’s constitutional authority, the proper course of action, in the case of violations of the Hatch Act by such officers, is to refer the violations to the president,” its report to Trump said at the time.

The OSC did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time.

The OSC announced in September that it submitted a report to Biden over an alleged Hatch Act violation by Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, who expressed support for Biden winning a second term.

The agency added that it reached settlement agreements entailing unpaid suspensions for an employee within the Department of Commerce and a U.S. attorney’s office.

“While OSC deals with some close calls in its Hatch Act enforcement, federal employees soliciting donations for a political campaign is express advocacy and a clear-cut violation,“ Dellinger said as part of the announcement. ”We urge federal employees not to cross these brightest of lines.”

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and China stimulus disappointing.

For the latest example look no further than the plan revealed this morning by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, which approved a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt swap package for local authorities to refinance “hidden” local debt onto public balance sheets. Funds for that program – telegraphed last month but without a price tag or timeframe – will be provided through 2028, they said, after the move was authorized by the nation’s top lawmaking body.

The details of the 10 trillion (but really 12 trillion program) are as follows:

• 1) A one-off increase in the 6tn yuan local government debt issuance, over 3 years (2024-26);
• 2) 4tn yuan special LGB issuance under the annual quota, over 5 years (2024-29); and

Additionally, the government will guarantee to pay back 2tn yuan implicit debt related to shantytown redevelopment due in 2029 and after.

In total, according to the Chinese MoF, the implicit local government debt will be reduced from RMB14.2tn to RMB2.3tn, a total of 12tn.

While policymakers didn’t announce measures to directly stimulate domestic demand, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised “more forceful” fiscal policy next year, signaling bolder steps – and another round of stimulus – could come after Trump’s inauguration in January. The US president-elect has threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese goods that could decimate trade between the world’s largest economies, and blight exports that have been a rare bright spot for the Asian nation this year.

Putting it together:

• The good news: this should reduce pressures from near-term debt repayment and lower debt-servicing costs, giving local governments more room to execute budgeted spending that’s needed to lift growth up to this year’s 5% target.
• The bad news: this was the bare minimum and came at the very low end of market expectations. That said, some have suggested that Beijing doesn’t want to burn all of its dry powder before it knows what anti-China measures Trump has in stock, so maybe just another reason to wait.

“Policymakers probably saw no need for a robust response to Trump’s victory before he takes office, given the relatively restrained post-election market response,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Next year is a different matter, but officials will take that as it comes.”

China has labeled local government debt one of the three “major economic and financial risks” facing his country, as regions divert money away from growth-boosting projects to repay their debt. Most of that money is tied to entities known as local government financing vehicles (or LGFVs), which borrow on behalf of provinces and cities to finance investment in infrastructure.

But local authorities have struggled to service those liabilities in recent years as the property crisis wiped out land sales they relied on for revenue. Officials at the briefing said the outstanding value of so-called hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan as of the end of 2023, far short of the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of at about 60 trillion yuan.

While markets shrugged off the measures, Lan called the package “a major policy decision taking into consideration international and domestic development environments.” Policymakers also took the rare step of raising local governments’ debt ceiling mid-year for the first time since 2015.

That increase in the debt limit will allow local governments to issue six trillion yuan in additional special bonds over three years to swap hidden debt, Lan said at the briefing. Regional authorities will be able to tap another total of 4 trillion yuan in special local bond quota to be approved in tranches over five years — including 2024 — for the same purpose, he added.

“To really have a positive for markets, you want to see something which is two trillion or above specifically talking about consumption-related stimulus,” Bernie Ahkong, CIO at UBS O’Connor Global Multi Strategy Alpha told Bloomberg TV.  

So was this a disappointment?

According to the market – with Chinese stock futures and the yuan both tumbling – a resounding yes, but as SocGen’s China strategist Wei Yao notes, it is more certainty on the forward looking part. Ahead of the meeting, SocGen had wondered if the debt swap could total over RMB10tn over next 3-4 years including the annual bond issuance quota. So the announced plan is slower but not smaller, and the bank didn’t expect the entire package to be clarified today. Then some may argue that the RMB4tn is not “additional”, but this statement can only be true if we had known about the debt issuance plan in the next five years. That is – is the 800bn per year really deducted from an already-set trajectory? No, not even the MOF knows what’s the fiscal package for next year.

The problem is that markets were happy to frontrun all this and more: China’s boldest stimulus blitz since the pandemic had sent onshore shares soaring by about 30% since September, thereby taking the pressure off officials to act immediately, which of course reflexively meant that Chinese stocks would immediately dump – as they did – putting more pressure to act! Those rate cuts, along with stock and housing market support pledges, have put President Xi Jinping back on track to hit this year’s growth goal of around 5%, without taking on piles of extra debt to reflate the economy.

In any case, investors had waited for weeks for the fiscal side of that campaign, with media reports stoking expectations for much more spending to stabilize the property market and boost consumption. Sure enough, disappointment was palpable at the start of the presser, with the offshore yuan weakening as much as 0.6% before paring the decline to 0.3% as the full scale of the package was known.

What is the impact on the economy?

The debt issuance will not fund new measures and the MOF pledges to contain growth in any new LGFV debt. But the swap will free up fiscal resources and allow local governments to function more normally. That is, local government will be much abler to carry out necessary spending, reduce unnecessary fines and penalties, and pay back arrears owed to the private sector.

It remains to see how the issuance schedule will look like. The imminent issuance of RMB2tn LGB to replacement implicit debt, confirmed today, will require liquidity injection worth 100bp RRR cuts. This could also be managed by PBoC’s liquidity operations.

What about stimulus?

Here China’s message seems to be “be patient and to be continued.” Markets were disappointed by the absence of any detail on anything else other than the local government debt. But as SocGen had cautioned, the SCNPC chooses to signal, rather than deliver, a more forceful fiscal budget in 2025. Regarding housing and bank recapitalization, the message today is that it’s being worked out quickly – if not as quickly as markets wanted to see. Indeed, the test of market patience can be problematic for confidence.

Market momentum aside, Beijing’s willingness to act to stop the deflationary spiral is still there, at least this is what Wei Yao is clinging some hope on. But clearly, Beijing wants to do things at its own pace. For one, the 2025 fiscal budget is not for now. The thinking may also be that:

1. The economy is showing more signs of bottoming out, and so there is less rush to top up stimulus for 2024.
2. There is still so much uncertainty around Trump tariffs – how much and when. Why show all the cards now? Indicatively, raising US tariff rate on Chinese goods from 20% currently to 60% could require RMB2-3tn additional fiscal stimulus to counter.

Then, what’s next?

• The banking recapitalization looks to be a bank-by-bank approach. And so, there should be details coming in the next few months, albeit likely in several batches.
• The 2025 fiscal budget will be the real deal to watch in terms of “additional” stimulus for domestic demand. If one doesn’t want to be disappointed again, then one might better not expect much detail before the year-end or even before March 5th NPC meeting next year. At the moment, we expect RMB2tn in special CGBs issuance (i.e. additionally) in 2025 to support demand, and more if we get to know the tariff plan by March.

Putting it together,  Beijing will do what’s necessary to counter tariff shocks and stop deflation at least over the next few years, regardless of the timing of policy announcements, but not at a pace dictated by markets. And while Beijing’s “policy put” is here to stay, Beijing’s patience is tricky for confidence.

Investors will now be looking to December for the next major window for bigger fiscal measures, when the 24-man Politburo will discuss the economy at a monthly meeting and policymakers will huddle at the annual Central Economic Work Conference. By then, officials could have greater clarity on Trump’s stance on tariffs, and more time to devise a fiscal strategy to fireproof the economy.

Officials could still unveil a “meaningful” fiscal package in the near term, according to Xiaojia Zhi, head of research at Credit Agricole CIB. Additional spending of 12 to 13 trillion yuan is possible in the next three years, to offset the impact from aggressive US tariff hikes, she added. That said, by now everyone who has bet on a “bigger than expected” stimulus by China has been badly burned, so it’s safe to assume that going forward the market will no longer react to promises but will instead demand actions.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.

Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.

Stock Markets

Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he will also push for a new corporate tax cut bill at a lower rate, nearer 15%, which was his original goal during his first term. While maintaining the corporate tax rate at 21% will help corporations maintain current profitability, a lower rate would benefit certain sectors like consumer discretionary and technology, where earnings are especially sensitive to tax changes. Financial stocks could also benefit from Trump’s history of deregulation, potentially leading to more mergers and investment opportunities. In fact, during his first term, the S&P 500 rose nearly 70%, partly due to those pro-business policies​.

Technically, the market remains on solid bullish underpinnings with very high levels of expected earnings growth heading into 2025. The bullish trend remains intact, and as discussed, the seasonally strong period of the year has started. Notably, corporate share buybacks and year-end performance chasing will support the last two months of the year.

“According to Morningstar, during the first half of 2024, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual and exchange-traded funds outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500 index. There are several reasons for this, including the lack of allocation to the ‘Magnificent 7,’ dispersion in returns of holdings, and lack of allocation to non-traditional assets.

However, there are risks.

It’s Not All Roses

Downside Risks: It’s not all rosy. A Trump presidency also brings risk from protectionist trade policies, including higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Those tariffs can potentially disrupt supply chains and increase costs for consumers and companies. Furthermore, if there are deep cuts to Government employment or spending, such would also slow economic growth more than expected and could offset the benefit of the extension of tax cuts. However, while those risks are present, the most significant risk is a reversion of economic growth, negatively impacting corporate profitability. The risk of investor disappointment is elevated with corporate profits already significantly deviated from long-term means.

Bottom Line: Stocks might see an initial jump on business-friendly promises but could face challenges if tariffs or unpredictable governance introduce economic shocks that suppress corporate profitability.

Bond Markets

Reasons for Caution: The bond market sold off sharply following the announcement of a Trump presidency. Such was not unsurprising, as bonds typically react negatively to narratives that might lead to higher inflation and rising interest rates. The initial knee-jerk reaction in the bond market was the assumption that the administration would emphasize deficit-financed spending on infrastructure or defense. Such spending would certainly lead to stronger economic growth and higher wages, which would sustain a higher level of inflation than witnessed from 2008 to 2020. The Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates to align with stronger economic growth if stronger growth occurs. In such an environment, bond prices would fall to accommodate higher economic activity. Such an outcome would stabilize bond prices at a higher “terminal rate,” reducing the potential upside in owning bonds.

As discussed in “Rates Are Going Much Higher?” there is an important correlation between wages, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. To wit:

“If we create a composite index of wages (which provides consumer purchasing power, aka demand), economic growth (the result of production and consumption), and inflation (the byproduct of increased demand from rising economic activity). We then compare that composite index to interest rates. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation between economic activity, inflation, and interest rates as rates respond to the drivers of inflation.”

Therefore, the bond market has a right to be concerned if a Trump presidency can foster a sustained level of higher economic growth and increased wages, creating a comparative inflation level. Such inflation would raise yields to align with those variables.

However, such will likely be harder to do than many think.

It’s The Economy

Potential Silver Linings: On the flip side, a Trump presidency must deal with high debt levels and a large fiscal deficit. Increases in the national debt were squandered on non-productive investments, and rising debt service results in a negative return on investment. Therefore, the larger the debt balance, the more economically destructive it is by diverting increasing amounts of dollars from productive assets to debt service. As interest rates increase, more federal tax revenue is diverted into servicing the national debt.

While many expect that Trump’s policies will lead to inflationary pressures, what should be evident is that increases in debt and deficits continue to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare. The result is lower, not higher, economic growth, inflation, and, ultimately, interest rates.

When put into perspective, one can understand the more significant problem plaguing economic growth. A long look at history clearly shows the negative impact of debt on economic growth.

Furthermore, changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems. Trump or any other president cannot effectively resolve those particular issues.

Overall Takeaway

Under a Trump presidency, the outlook for the stock and bond markets presents a blend of opportunities and challenges. The outcomes for both are heavily dependent on which policies become realities.

The one big concern for us at RIA Advisors continues to be a market that has enjoyed outsized returns over the past two years and deviates from long-term means. With the markets being overbought monthly and trading at the top of its long-term trend channel, expectations of further market upside seem overly confident without some correction first. Since 2009, the market has retested the 4-year moving average numerous times. Such is a normal and healthy process for an ongoing bull market, and a mean reversion should be expected at some point in the future. However, such an event isn’t likely between now and year-end.

Furthermore, market predictions hinge on the balance between growth and inflation. While Trump has many policies on his wish list, those policies must be passed by a heavily bipartisan Congress. With only slim majorities to work with, there is a risk of defection on some bills, particularly by the “Freedom Caucus,” which would oppose large deficit spending bills.

Lastly, stocks could rally on tax cuts but might stumble if tariffs weigh heavily on global trade. Bonds could indeed face headwinds, but the “3-Ds” of debts, deficits, and demographics will continue to plague economic growth. While there was an initial surge in stocks and a sell-off in bonds on the announcement of a Trump presidency, there is still a very long road ahead that investors must navigate. Fed policy, economics, earnings and corporate profitability all pose risk to longer-term outlooks.

Investors should stay informed and consider a diversified approach, as the next presidency promises to bring both opportunities and risks across asset classes.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Turncoat Michael Cohen, who vowed to leave the United States if Trump won the election, was hilariously mocked during a livestream when viewers kept imposing a turkey filter over his head.

The disbarred lawyer and former Trump “fixer” pled guilty to lying to Congress in 2018 and later turned on Trump to testify against him during Trump’s hush money criminal trial back in May.

In September, Cohen revealed that he was working on getting a new passport and changing his name before fleeing the country if Trump was victorious.

“I’m out of here,” Cohen he told MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace. “I’m already working on a foreign passport with a completely different name.”

During a livestream after the election, Cohen angrily asserted that he had changed his mind and would now be staying in America.

🤣I’m Dying…Michael Cohen getting trolled during livestream.🤣 pic.twitter.com/efiixLElzE

— Still🏝️Roaming (@roaming_rn) November 8, 2024

However, the funniest part of the clip is that viewers kept using an Instagram filter of a Turkey and superimposing it over Cohen’s head.

Cohen seemingly didn’t know how to turn the filter option off and became increasingly irate at being mocked.

“Can we stop with that? I don’t appreciate it, I don’t like the stupid Turkeys, let’s just knock that stupid shit off please,” Cohen insisted.

“I did, I said I was leaving, and then the following day, get that through your dumb heads, the following day, I turned around and I said that there’s no chance in the world that I’m leaving,” he said, adding, “I’m not leaving anywhere, you leave!”

Cohen continued to have turkeys superimposed over his head as he tried to use his finger to block the screen.

“It’s my country and I have every right, every single right…alright, two seconds, I’m gonna end up blocking this idiot,” Cohen said looking exasperated as viewers continued to make him look like a complete idiot.

Trump winning the election has unleashed a deluge of golden content that will keep the MAGA movement laughing all through the winter.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Facing an influx of illegal immigrants, Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams said he’d be happy to share ideas on the crisis with President-elect Donald Trump.

At a post-election press conference, Adams said New York now hosts 220,000 illegal immigrants and has received negligible support from the federal government.

“I want to see the federal government fix a federal problem. This is a federal problem,” Adams said when asked what help he would like to see.

It is estimated that feeding and housing the illegal immigrants for three years will cost the city $10 billion.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has allocated $2.4 billion for this year.

Which is perhaps why the NYC mayor said the city will phase out out a program that gave prepaid debit cards to migrant families in city-funded hotels to purchase their own meals and essentials, according to CBS News New York.

The program will provide migrant families with debit cards until the end of the year. After that, the city will deliver food directly to migrants.

“As we move towards more competitive contracting for asylum seeker programs, we have chosen not to renew the emergency contract for this pilot program once the one-year term concludes. For over two years, we have provided care to more than 222,000 migrants while saving $2 billion in asylum seeker-related costs,” Adams said in a statement.

“We will continue to implement and learn from innovative pilot programs like the immediate response cards program as we care for hundreds of new arrivals every week.”

Adams said he planned to call Trump but had not done so because the president-elect is likely flooded with calls at the moment.

“I communicated with the president yesterday to state that there are many issues here in the city that we want to work together with the administration to address,” Adams said.

“The city must move forward, and that is what our call is to do.”

He said that if the new president would be willing to listen, he would happily share his ideas and experiences.

As The Epoch Times’ Oliver Mantyk reports, Adams has voiced disappointment with being unable to deport illegal immigrants who are repeat offenders after a number of violent criminals landed back on the streets after arrest.

The mayor has also been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the border. According to Adams, his administration took 10 trips to Washington to negotiate a solution. Plans for a statewide “decompression plan” to involve more counties in helping the immigrants are also underway.

Though Trump’s platform promised to secure the border and deport illegal immigrants, New York’s sanctuary city laws would make it harder for the Trump administration to detain illegal immigrants there. The laws prevent police from assisting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in many cases, and protect illegal immigrants from deportation.

At the press conference, the Adams administration reaffirmed its commitment to sanctuary laws.

Commissioner Manuel Castro, head of the Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs, said:

“As a sanctuary city, we intend to follow the law. And we expect that all our city agencies follow our sanctuary laws. … And we will continue to be a sanctuary city, and protect our immigrant communities.”

Castro stated that the most harmful thing facing immigrant communities right now is fear and misinformation. He maintained that immigrants will get the help and information that they need.

When asked about any policy changes now that a possibly more supportive president will be in office, the mayor said that nothing would change, and that his administration would continue on the path it has taken with the Biden administration. He’s been advocating that big cities like New York should not be taking the brunt of the crisis, and that changes must be made, and support given.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The leader of the Netherlands’ largest political party has described the country as “the Gaza of Europe” after a wave of violence broke out in Amsterdam in the early hours of Friday morning, targeting Jews.

Harrowing video footage from the scene shows Jewish individuals being beaten, thrown into canals, and even run over by mobs of Muslim men. In one instance, an attacker can be heard shouting, “That’s for Palestine, motherfucker,” while repeatedly kicking a motionless man. Some Jewish visitors sought refuge in nearby buildings as crowds attempted to force their way inside, according to reports from The Jerusalem Post.

🇳🇱🇮🇱🚨 Horrific scenes from the Dutch capital of Amsterdam in the early hours with Jews running for their lives while being hunted down by Muslim mobs.

Videos surfacing online show Jewish football fans, in the city to attend Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League match with Ajax,… pic.twitter.com/54OslCOxm3

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 8, 2024

Those targeted were in the first instance appeared to have been Israeli football fans in town for the Europa League match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ajax, however, other footage from the night shows Muslim mobs walking around the Dutch capital interrogating passers-by, demanding they tell them were they are from.

The attacks, which have drawn widespread condemnation, were described by Dutch politician Geert Wilders as an “Amsterdam Pogrom,” prompting calls for urgent government action.

Wilders, leader of the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), responded forcefully on social media. “We have become the Gaza of Europe,” he declared, condemning the failure of Amsterdam’s authorities to prevent what he described as a “Jew hunt” and calling for the immediate resignation of Amsterdam’s mayor.

Wilders criticized the lack of police protection and demanded accountability from city officials, warning that he would not tolerate such violence under any circumstances.

“Condemning the hunt for Jews in Amsterdam is not enough. The perpetrators must leave the country,” Wilders wrote on X.

“I have been warning for over 20 years about the growing hatred of Jews in the Netherlands due to the continued mass immigration and Islamization of our country. I want an emergency debate with Minister-President Dick Schoof,” he added.

Israeli officials were also alarmed by the violence and the response from Dutch authorities. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett urged anyone who could act “to save lives by any means,” while Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirmed that Israel’s embassy was coordinating with Dutch officials and had set up emergency hotlines for those at risk. Two emergency planes from Tel Aviv were prepared to aid in evacuating those in danger, but the mission was ultimately canceled.

In a statement, the Israeli Ministry of Diaspora Affairs expressed deep concern over the lack of action from Dutch authorities. According to the ministry’s deputy director general, Israeli officials had warned Dutch security agencies of a planned attack against Jewish fans, sharing concrete intelligence at 7 p.m. the night before the violence erupted. Despite the information, the Israeli ministry claimed that the Dutch authorities failed to mobilize adequate protection.

Is dit waar @ministerjenv @MinBZK @MinPres?

Ik hoop het niet want dan hebben we een probleem. https://t.co/7uE7oHqFU0

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 8, 2024

Wilders took his criticisms further, targeting Justice Minister David van Weel and questioning the lack of police presence and foresight by Dutch officials.

Dat is allemaal niet genoeg! Waarom was er onvoldoende politie? Waarom was dit niet voorzien? Waarom stuur je dit tuig niet het land uit? Waar blijven de voorstellen om criminele moslims te kunnen denaturaliseren? Waarom is er geen extra ministerraad vandaag? Waar is de urgentie? https://t.co/BKWaXIocxd

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 8, 2024

“Why were there not enough police? Why was this not foreseen? Why don’t you send this scum out of the country? Where is the urgency?” he asked.

The Dutch nationalist has long advocated for stricter immigration policies and has linked the violence to what he describes as “Islamization” in the Netherlands. He called for an emergency debate among lawmakers to address the escalating antisemitic violence and to propose measures including the deportation of those responsible for the attacks.

The night of violence shocked the Jewish community in Amsterdam and prompted urgent calls for stronger security measures to protect Jewish residents and visitors.

Read more here…

The record election rally has finally fizzled and futs are slightly lower after China’s stimulus package revealed this morning disappointed investors. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were trading at exactly 6,000, down 0.1% from the first ever closing high above 6,000 but still on track for its best week in a year on the prospect of tax cuts and deregulation under Trump. Nasdaq futures are down 0.3%. Bond yields are 3bp lower after the Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point interest-rate cut and left the door open for further easing next month; the dollar reversed some of yesterday’s sharp losses when markets fretted they had taken Trump trades too far (they haven’t). Oil is down but base metals are higher. Overnight, Chinese stock futures and the yuan are lower having extended declines after authorities announced a total 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt, which was disappointing as (1) There was no lift to the Central Govt debt ceiling, and (2) There was no direct support for consumption or the property market, (3) The only announced a debt swap, not incremental stimulus. Today, the macro focus will be on Univ. of Michigan survey, where consensus expects an increase to 71.0 from 70.5 in October, although the rebound in mortgage rates could weight on sentiment. Later tonight, we will receive China PPI and CPI releases at 8.30pm ET.

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks declined as Beijing’s latest fiscal policies underwhelm. China announced a plan to refinance local government debt, but stopped short of announcing other measures to boost housing and consumption. Airbnb shares dropped 5.4% after the home-rental company reported third-quarter results. While analysts viewed the results as solid, they flagged the impact of investments on margins. Here are some other notable movers:

• Arista Networks (ANET) shares drop 5.1% after the computer networking company projected fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 15% to 17%, compared with 18% estimated by analysts.
• Cloudflare (NET) fall 8.3% after the infrastructure software company’s forecast for fourth quarter revenue fell short of consensus.
• Doximity (DOCS) shares soar 44% after the healthcare-software company raised its full-year forecast for both revenue and adjusted Ebitda. Analysts say the results are strong, highlighting the client portal roll-out as a catalyst.
• Five9 (FIVN) shares rally 22% as the call-center software provider raised its full-year guidance.
• Pinterest (PINS) shares fall 12% after the search and discovery network gave a weak revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. Analysts flagged weakness in food and beverage ad spend.

Friday’s moves follow a cross-asset rally on Thursday that was supported by Jerome Powell’s comments. He pointed to the strength of the US economy and said he doesn’t rule “out or in” a December rate cut. Powell added the election will have no effect on policy in the near term, and said he would not step aside if asked by Trump. Following yesterday’s cut, traders are betting on 82 basis points of Fed easing by September 2025. The yield on 30-year US bonds declined about two basis points to 4.51% Friday, falling for a second day to retrace some of its post-election spike. Bloomberg’s dollar gauge gained 0.2%.

After an initial stampede into “Trump Trades,” investors in some asset classes are tapering their enthusiasm as they question whether he will push through his ambitious tariff proposals as US president. “Even with red majorities across Congress, it’s likely that these policy actions will take time,” said James Athey, fund manager at Marlborough Investment Management. “That might make significant further gains in the short term a little harder to come by.”

Meanwhile, US equity funds attracted $20 billion on Wednesday when Trump secured victory in the election, the biggest daily addition in five months, according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett. US stock funds overall added $32.8 billion in the week through Nov. 6.

Halfway across the globe, Beijing’s disappointing stimulus measures “look like it is just a debt swap, which is frankly not going to be that exciting for markets,” said Bernie Ahkong, global multi-strategy alpha chief investment officer at UBS O’Connor. “The big factor between now and the end of the year is if we are going to get some incremental stimulus from the consumer side.”

“To me, there is little alternative to the US,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “The US is already the best performing equity market globally and we expect that outperformance to continue. US companies are the most profitable and likely to remain so, helped by the potential for lower taxes and less stringent regulation.”

European stocks were also hit by the China disappointment, with mining and consumer products shares leading declines, while real estate and healthcare subsectors were the biggest outperformers leading declines on the Stoxx 600 which falls 0.6%. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Dino Polska shares surge as much as 12% after Polish food supermarket chain reported improvement of Ebitda margin, despite challenging environment and slow same-store sales
• Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 8.5% in Copenhagen, after JPMorgan initiated coverage on the stock with an overweight recommendation, saying amylin is the “next wave in obesity.
• EDP shares rise as much as 5.4% in Lisbon after Portuguese utility reported nine-month net income of EU1.08 billion vs. EU946 million y/y
• IAG shares jump as much as 7.9%, reaching the highest level since June 2020, after reporting a significant Ebit beat in the third quarter. The airline group also announced a share buyback program of €350 million to end no later than Feb. 28
• IMCD shares rise as much as 7.1%, the most since early August, after the Dutch chemicals firm’s results showed improving organic growth that analysts praised. ING says the market could focus on the positives in the context of troubling macro and chemicals news
• Miners are underperforming the broader European market as copper and iron ore joined a slump in commodity prices after China’s debt-swap plan left traders disappointed, with stimulus seen remaining in the slow lane
• Richemont shares drop as much as 5.6%, dragging shares in luxury peers lower, after the jeweler and watchmaker’s first-half sales and operating profit missed estimates amid weakness in its Chinese market
• Vistry Group shares plummet as much as 21%, slumping to their lowest level since October 2023, after cutting its profit guidance yet again. The housebuilder warned it will build fewer homes than previously expected
• Serco shares plunge as much as 15%, hitting their lowest level in almost a year, after the outsourcing company failed to win a renewal to provide immigration services and facilities in Australia
• Greggs shares drop as much as 7.6% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the bakery chain to sell from hold, as the broker flagged measures from the Autumn Budget that are “disproportionately relevant to the labor-intensive leisure sector”

Asian equities rose, capping their first weekly gain in six, as the Fed’s rate cut drove broader risk-on trading despite declines in Chinese stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% Friday before paring some gains, with TSMC, Recruit Holdings and Hitachi among the biggest boosts. The regional benchmark was on course for a weekly advance of around 2.6%. Key gauges in New Zealand, Singapore, and Australia were among the biggest gainers, tracking a rally in US stocks after the Fed lowered its key interest rate by a quarter point. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that he doesn’t rule “out or in” a December rate cut also helped boost investor sentiment. Sentiment was gutted, however, by the latest disappointing stimulus announcement out of Beijing, which sent Chinese futures and the yuan sliding. After market close, authorities announced a total 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt, which disappointed investors who were expecting stronger fiscal spending. The disappointment spread to assets often correlated with the health of the Chinese economy.  Market watchers are now turning their focus to upcoming policy meetings for further stimulus clues.

“The announcement is a letdown and indicative of the underlying conservative framework that reduces the scope for large positive surprises in the next few months,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier. “It appears that the authorities are kicking the can to December policy meetings, including the Central Economic Work Conference.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%, hitting a session highs after China announced a disappointing 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt as part of policy support measures to boost flagging growth. The yen is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.4% against the greenback. The Aussie dollar drops 0.6% to the bottom of the G-10 FX leader board.

In rates, treasuries rise, with US 10-year yields falling 3 bps to 4.30%, underperforming bunds in the sector by 2.5bp, gilts by 0.5bp. Bunds outperform, supporting Treasuries, as euro-area stocks fall on global-growth concerns after China’s debt swap plan fell short of expectations. US data and Fed speaker calendars are light for Friday, and expectations for a heavy corporate issuance slate next week may drive hedging flows.

In commodities, the China disappointment hit prices with iron ore futures down 3%, and Brent crude down 1.5%. Spot gold fell $23 to $2,684/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes November preliminary University of Michigan sentiment at 10am New York time. Fed members scheduled to speak include Bowman at 11am on banking topics. Next week, Chair Powell speaks at an event put on by the Dallas Regional Chamber, Dallas Fed and World Affairs Council of DFW

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,008.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 508.65
• MXAP up 0.2% to 189.95
• MXAPJ little changed at 603.31
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 39,500.37
• Topix little changed at 2,742.15
• Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 20,728.19
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,452.30
• Sensex down 0.1% to 79,461.04
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,295.13
• Kospi down 0.1% to 2,561.15
• German 10Y yield down 6 bps at 2.38%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0784
• Brent Futures down 1.4% to $74.59/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.7% to $2,687.50
• US Dollar Index little changed at 104.43

Top Overnight News

• Advisers close to President-elect Donald Trump have been in discussions with House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on a broad tax package that is partially paid for by tariffs approved by Congress. As part of those conversations, staffers and advisers close to the Trump team have also investigated whether House rules need to be changed to use tariffs as offsets for tax cuts. Politico
• President-elect Donald Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy to undercut Tehran’s support of violent Mideast proxies and its nuclear program, according to people briefed on his early plans. WSJ
• A dollar rally triggered by Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election could heighten pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as soon as December to prevent the yen from sliding back toward three-decade lows. Reuters
• Japan’s households cut spending for a second month deterred by inflation, backing the case for the BOJ to take a cautious approach to rate hikes. BBG
• China announced a $1.4 trillion program to allow local governments to refinance debt, finally putting an amount on long-anticipated stimulus. Markets weren’t impressed: The offshore yuan, bond yields and commodities all fell. The finance chief promised more measures next year. BBG
• China auto sales jump 11.2% Y/Y in Oct (this is the second consecutive month of Y/Y increases, and the fastest growth since Jan). Reuters
• The Biden administration is racing to complete Chips Act subsidy deals with Intel, Samsung and others before Trump takes office. TSMC and Global Foundries are said to be readying announcements, but more than 20 companies are still in the process. BBG
• Susie Wiles — one of the top architects of Trump’s political campaign — was named his White House chief of staff. She’ll be the first woman to hold the position. Jared Kushner won’t join the administration, though he may advise on Middle East policy, the FT reported. BBG
• BlackRock is said to be in talks to take a minority stake in Millennium. BBG, FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the early momentum following the fresh record levels on Wall St and a bout of rate cuts by major central banks, with gains capped as participants awaited a potential Chinese fiscal stimulus announcement. ASX 200 outperformed its major peers amid gains in nearly all sectors and with financials kept afloat post-ANZ earnings. Nikkei 225 traded higher but with gains capped after a contraction in household spending and the recent currency rebound. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp wiped out early gains despite the HKMA’s 25bps lockstep rate cut with price action cautious as participants awaited the conclusion of the NPC Standing Committee’s session and potential stimulus announcement.

Top Asian News

• PBoC says they will firmly guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting. Further interest rate cuts face dual constraints of net interest margin and exchange rate
• PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Report: Reiterates monetary policy is to be flexible & targeted. To enhance the guiding role of central bank policy rates. To keep expanding monetary policy toolbox. Sticking to accommodative monetary policy stance. Maintain yuan exchange rate. To further improve monetary policy framework
• China’s MOFCOM says China made progress in talks with EU on EV tariffs, with technical talks next week.
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its base rate by 25bps to 5.00%, as expected, in lockstep with the Fed.
• China’s Ambassador to the US Xie Feng said there are no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, science and technology wars, and industrial wars, while he added that the Taiwan issue is the first red line that cannot be crossed in Sino-US relations and words must match deeds. Furthermore, he said no challenge can stop China’s progress and that any containment and suppression will only “hit a wall.”
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they will closely monitor the impact of Trump policies on the Japanese economy, while he wouldn’t comment on the FX level but reiterated it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and that they will take appropriate steps on excessive moves.
• Sony (6758 JT) 6-month (JPY): Net 570bln, +36%; Operating 734bln, +42.3%; PBT 767bln, +43.8%.
• Softbank (9434 JT) 6-month (JPY) Sales 3.15tln, +7.4% Y/Y, Op. Income 585.89bln, +13.9% Y/Y; Sees FY Net Income 510bln (prev. guided 500bln); Op. Income 950bln (prev. guided 900bln)
• China Q3 (USD) Prelim current account surplus 146.9bln (prev. 54.5bln Y/Y), via China FX Regulator
• Acer (2353 TT) Oct consolidated revenue TWD 18.82bln Year to October +10.1%

China NPC Press Conference

• China’s top lawmakers have approved the local debt swap plan; to raise the local gov’t debt ceilings to replace existing hidden debts, via Xinhua.
• China’s NPC Vice-Chairman says they intend to raise the local gov’t debt ceiling by CNY 6tln. Moves to reduce local gov’t debt will help to promote growth, expect to save CNY 600bln in interests for local gov’ts over five years; In addition to the 6tln debt limit approved, the local debt repayment resources will be directly increased by 10tln. New debt quota will help to replace existing debts. Will help to increase the local debt ceiling. Will raise the end-2024 local gov’t special bond ceiling to CNY 35.5tln from CNY 29.52tln. Debt burdens in some regions are “big & heavy”. Must resolutely curb new “hidden” debt.
• China’s Finance Minister (Q&A): must resolutely curb new “hidden” debt; China Government debt burden relatively low and still has relatively big room to raise debt; will increase counter-cyclical measures. Will roll out new policy measures. Will issue measures to support the property market. To implement more forceful fiscal policy in 2025. Will soon issue special sovereign bonds to replenish the capital of big state banks. Issue special local bonds to support the purchase of idle land and unsold flats. Will issue ultra-long special treasury bonds.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.7%) are entirely in the red and to varying degrees vs futures initially indicating a positive open. Sentiment was hit following the China’s NPC press conference, where it largely refrained from providing specific details on fiscal stimulus, but did promise more forceful fiscal policy in next year. Bourses continued to trundle lower and currently reside just off worst levels. European sectors hold a negative bias; Healthcare takes the top spot, lifted by AstraZeneca after it reported a positive update on one of its treatments. Basic Resources and Consumer Products sit at the foot of the pile, with the former hampered by losses in underlying metals prices whilst the latter is weighed on by poor results from Richemont. Additionally, sentiment across these China-exposed sectors was hit given the lack of fresh stimulus measures from China’s NPCSC. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY U/C) are flat/incrementally lower, but have been edging ever so slightly lower in recent trade, given the weakness also seen in Europe. TSMC (2330 TT) has reportedly informed Chinese customers that it will be suspending production of some of their AI and high-performance chips, via Nikkei citing sources; as the Co. increases efforts to comply with US export controls

Top European News

• Grifols Profit Rises on Biopharma Sales, Repeats Guidance
• Erdogan Expects Lower Interest Rates With Slower Inflation
• German Economy Minister Habeck Returns to X After Five Years
• Cartier Owner Richemont’s Profit Slumps on Weak China Demand
• Logitech CEO Takes Diving Lessons to the Metaverse: Leader Q&A
• Scholz Under Mounting Pressure to Agree to January German Vote

FX

• DXY is slightly higher, with USD stronger vs. most peers (DXY is sluggish on account of JPY strength). DXY has been as high as 105.44 post-election but has since returned to a 104 handle.
• EUR is on the backfoot vs. the USD with the pair unable to hold above the 1.08 mark after venturing as high as 1.0824 on Thursday. For now, today’s session low is at 1.0762 is still comfortably above yesterday’s base at 1.0712.
• GBP softer vs. the USD to a similar magnitude as peers. Downside for Cable is limited relative to Thursday’s moves with the current session low at 1.2936.
• JPY is the only of the majors to be up against the USD in an extension of yesterday’s price action. Markets seem willing to fade some of the post-election rally seen in USD/JPY with Japanese officials out in full force attempting to jawbone the pair lower. USD/JPY has been as low as 152.28 with the next targets coming via the 200 and 21DMAs at 151.67 and 151.66 respectively.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD after yesterday’s post-election recovery vs. the USD. Today it is likely that some of the disappointment surrounding the Chinese NPC meeting is acting as a drag on both pairs.
• Yuan is on the backfoot vs. the USD with the outcome of the Chinese NPC meeting judged to be somewhat of a damp squib as some expectations for bazooka stimulus were left disappointed.

Rates

• USTs are in the green, as markets digest the 25bps move from the Fed and continued data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting guidance alongside Powell saying he intends to serve the entirety of his term (mid-2026). Given the cut, yields are lower across the curve though there is no overt flattening/steepening bias currently. USTs at a 110-16+ peak, just off the 110-21+ WTD high. No real follow through from the underwhelming Chinese press conference.
• Bunds are firmer, taking directional impetus from USTs but primarily bouncing back from the marked pressure seen yesterday when the German coalition essentially collapsed. Stopped two ticks shy of the 132.00 mark but remains in striking distance.
• Gilts are directionally echoing peers but the modest outperformer. Action which comes as Gilts pare back the hawkish-skew from yesterday’s BoE. Gilts currently above the 94.00 mark but just off a 94.21 peak, resistance at 94.34 and 94.73 from Monday and last Friday.

Commodities

• A softer session for the crude complex complex thus far in a continuation of the weakness seen overnight following yesterday’s choppy performance but with price action contained amid light oil-specific newsflow and against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical risks. Weakness this morning also emanated from China’s NPC press conference which was overall a damp squib – China’s much anticipated NPC Standing Committee meeting concluded today with an announcement on a debt swap plan to rein in hidden local government debt, whilst future fiscal stimulus was promised. Brent trades towards the lower end of a USD 74.45-75.61/bbl.
• Precious metals are softer across the board after rebounding yesterday as the dollar softened on a Trump trade fade, with the broader commodity complex overall underwhelmed by the Chinese NPC press conference.
• Base metals are lower across the board following the underwhelming Chinese NPC announcement which omitted specifics regarding sizes of fiscal stimulus, although China’s Finance Minister said China will roll out new policy measures.
• US President-elect Trump reportedly intends to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales, via WSJ citing sources.

Geopolitics

• “Deputy Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament to Sky News Arabia: A ceasefire is possible within a few weeks”, according to Sky News Arabia; details light
• Iranian Supreme Leader said Iran should put an end to Israel and make a sound decision on responding to its attack, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu is aware of serious violence against Israeli citizens in Amsterdam and directed that two planes be sent immediately to assist citizens in Amsterdam after reports of Israeli football fans being attacked by assailants chanting ‘Free Palestine’. Furthermore, Israel’s Foreign Minister asked his Dutch counterpart to help get Israelis out safely following the security incident in Amsterdam.
• Israeli occupation forces stormed the city of Dhahriya, south of Hebron in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 71.0, prior 70.5
  • Nov. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 65.5, prior 64.9
  • Nov. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 75.0, prior 74.1
  • Nov. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
  • Nov. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in another very strong performance over the last 24 hours, with US risk assets continuing their post-election surge. In fact after yesterday’s moves, the S&P 500 (+0.74%) is now up more than +25% on a year-to-date basis, and the last time it was up this much YTD by November 7 was back in 1995. Moreover, US IG credit spreads tightened another -2bps yesterday to just 75bps, which is their tightest closing level since 1998. So there’s an incredibly buoyant mood right now, and the S&P 500 has also just recorded its strongest 3-day move (+4.56%) since 2022.

Of course, the main news yesterday came from the Fed, although the policy decision was a widely-expected 25bp cut, which took the target range for the fed funds rate down to 4.50-4.75%. The language in the FOMC statement was largely unchanged, keeping the view that “the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.” Looking forward, Powell avoided sending any signal about the December meeting, emphasising the data still to come before then. But relative to the previous meeting in September, the overall tone leaned slightly hawkish, as Powell mentioned how the recent data pointed to “diminishing downside risks” as “the economy remains strong”. He also added that “the right way to find neutral… is carefully, patiently”. Our US economists continue to expect another 25bps cut in December, but they think the bar for a skipping a cut at that meeting isn’t high. See their full reaction here.

In terms of recent political developments, Powell steered clear of discussing the implications of the election for the Fed, saying that “We don’t know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be”. He also replied “No” when asked if he’d resign if Trump asked him, and said that dismissal of any Fed board members was “not permitted under the law”. Separately, a CNN report earlier cited a Trump advisor saying that Trump would allow Powell to serve out the rest of his four-year term until May 2026.

When it comes to the election results, the only outstanding question now is whether the Republicans will take the House of Representatives. That’s still not formally confirmed, but the chances of a Republican sweep on Polymarket have now risen to 97%, and the latest seat count from AP now stands at 211 for the Republicans and 199 for the Democrats, with 218 required for a majority. Meanwhile in the Senate, the latest total now stands at 53-45 for the Republicans, with two seats left to be called. Finally, Trump announced his first appointment yesterday, saying that Susie Wiles, his campaign manager, would become his White House chief of staff.

Before the Fed’s decision, US Treasuries actually unwound some of their post-election moves yesterday, with 2yr Treasury yields ending the day -6.2bps lower at 4.20%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -10.6bps to 4.33%. This also meant the dollar index (-0.55%) posted its worst day since August, albeit giving up just a third of Wednesday’s +1.61% gain. And looking forward, investors believe that another 25bp cut in December is likely, but far from certain, with futures only giving that a 71% probability as we go to press this morning.

Elsewhere, US equities saw continued gains as Powell struck an upbeat tone on the economy. That saw the S&P 500 (+0.74%) reach its 49th all-time high this year, with its YTD gains crossing the +25% mark. Tech stocks led the advance, with the NASDAQ (+1.51%) and the Magnificent 7 (+2.28%) reaching new highs of their own. That said, some of Wednesday’s strongest performers did see a reversal, with the Russell 2000 (-0.43%) and the KBW Bank index (-2.68%) retreating. But positive sentiment dominated overall, with the VIX index (-1.07pts) falling to its lowest level since August at 15.20.

Overnight in Asia, the focus is now on the Standing Committee meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, and what measures they may announce, particularly with the prospect of higher US tariffs under a Trump administration. Ahead of that, equity markets have seen little moves in either direction across Asia, with the Hang Seng (-0.29%), the CSI 300 (-0.09%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.14%), the KOSPI (-0.12%) and the Nikkei (+0.11%) all seeing pretty modest moves. That’s been reflected among US equity futures as well, with those on the S&P 500 up just +0.05% this morning.

Ahead of the Fed, the Bank of England also delivered a 25bp rate cut yesterday, taking their policy rate down to 4.75%. The move was widely expected, and the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favour of the decision, with the dissenting vote to keep rates unchanged. Their latest forecasts also included the impact of the government’s budget the previous week, which announced higher borrowing plans for the years ahead. Their statement said that the budget was “provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under ½ of a percentage point at the peak”, and Governor Bailey said that the Budget changes “are expected to reduce the margin of spare capacity in the economy over the forecast period”. Looking forward, the BoE signalled that rates would continue to move lower, and Governor Bailey said that “a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate”. From here, our UK economist expects the BoE to leave rates on hold at the next meeting, before delivering another cut at the subsequent decision in February, and eventually moving to a terminal rate of 3.25%.

With the BoE cutting rates, UK gilts saw a strong outperformance yesterday, which saw the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds tighten by -10.4bps to 205bps. That took it down from its two-year high the previous day, and it also marked the biggest move tighter in the spread since July 2023. But even as gilts rallied, sovereign bonds elsewhere in Europe struggled, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps) and OATs (+2.8bps) both moving up to their highest level since July, at 2.44% and 3.20% respectively. For equities it was the reverse picture however, with the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.32%) lower amidst the stronger pound, whilst Germany’s DAX (+1.70%) posted its best daily performance of 2024 so far. Otherwise, the broader STOXX 600 posted a +0.62% gain.

Elsewhere in Europe, there’s been plenty happening in German politics after the federal coalition broke up on Wednesday night. As a reminder, the breakup happened after Chancellor Scholz of the SPD dismissed finance minister Christian Lindner, who also leads the FDP, and the other FDP ministers then left the coalition as well. In turn, Scholz said he would call a vote of no confidence on January 15, which would pave the way for new federal elections after that. There were calls yesterday for that vote to be brought forward, including from opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU, but Scholz said again that he wouldn’t put the vote of confidence to the Bundestag until the start of next year.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the US weekly initial jobless claims were broadly as expected at 221k (vs. 222k expected). However, the continuing jobless claims for the previous week ending October 26 ticked up to 1.892m (vs. 1.873m expected), their highest level since November 2021. Over in Europe, German industrial production contracted -2.5% in September (vs. -1.0% expected), and Euro Area retail sales were up +0.5% in September (vs. +0.4% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November, and there’s also Italy’s retail sales and industrial production for September. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and Musalem, the ECB’s Vujcic, and the BoE’s Pill.

Authored by Michael Johnson via Evergreen Gavekal blog,

Cryptocurrencies have undergone an astonishing evolution over the past 15 years.

What began with Bitcoin’s (BTC) launch in January 2009 has grown into a dynamic yet highly volatile asset class, capturing the attention of individual investors, financial institutions, and governments worldwide.

Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” has generated phenomenal, unprecedented returns for early adopters, as shown in the chart below. However, despite this dramatic ascent, the cryptocurrency market remains a speculative and often misunderstood corner of the financial world. Wild price swings, regulatory concerns, and complex underlying technology make cryptocurrencies both exciting and risky.

In the lead-up to Tuesday’s Presidential election, investors closely watched market movements, with some speculating that a victory by former President Donald Trump could act as a catalyst for crypto prices. For crypto enthusiasts, the election results did not disappoint. Bitcoin’s price surged nearly 8% in early trading, crossing the $75,000 mark for the first time and breaking its previous all-time high set in March. Other cryptocurrencies followed suit; Dogecoin, for example, saw significant gains, partly due to its association with its most notable supporter, Elon Musk. Musk’s frequent endorsements of Dogecoin have fueled its popularity, despite its origins as a “joke” cryptocurrency.

The recent price jumps following the election raise two crucial questions:

1. Is the Price Jump in Cryptocurrencies a Knee-Jerk Reaction or Sustainable Momentum?

History has shown that cryptocurrency markets often react to macroeconomic and political events, with sharp price increases or decreases around significant news.

In this case, the election results have likely fueled short-term speculative buying. When large investors and traders anticipate a favorable outcome, they can inject a wave of capital into the market, driving up prices. However, the long-term sustainability of this momentum is less certain and depends on multiple factors, such as post-election regulatory policies, interest rates, and investor confidence in the broader economy.

Many analysts argue that Bitcoin and other digital assets are increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, much like gold. If this narrative continues to hold, these assets may find more sustained support from both retail and institutional investors, especially if inflation remains high or the economic landscape is uncertain. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market will almost certainly benefit if support from the new administration remains strong.

2. Does a Change in Administration Provide Tailwinds to Cryptocurrencies?

Shifts in political leadership often influence regulatory landscapes, which could, in turn, affect the future of the cryptocurrency market. President-elect Trump has signaled his support for the industry, declaring his affection for the digital currency on several occasions. Additionally, he has promised to remove existing SEC leadership leading the US government’s crackdown on the crypto industry.

On Tuesday night, Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, offered his perspective on what the change in leadership means for the industry: “Tonight the crypto voter has spoken decisively — across party lines and in key races across the country. Americans disproportionately care about crypto and want clear rules of the road for digital assets. We look forward to working with the new Congress to deliver it.”

Many governments continue to explore central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which could bring legitimacy to digital assets while also create regulatory competition for cryptocurrencies. Should the U.S. choose to advance its own CBDC initiatives, there could be an indirect benefit to the crypto space by fostering broader digital asset literacy and infrastructure improvements.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Cryptocurrencies?

 The cryptocurrency market remains unpredictable, and investors should remain cautious.

While speculative rallies provide opportunities for quick gains, the risk of rapid declines is ever-present.

Moving forward, the path will likely be shaped by a combination of policy changes, economic conditions, and technological developments.

For those who embrace the potential of digital currencies, this election-induced rally serves as a reminder of both the opportunities and the risks inherent in this asset class.

Whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can sustain their momentum, or if they will once again face turbulence from political and economic shifts, remains an open question.

However, the increasing integration of these assets into mainstream finance suggests that cryptocurrencies are evolving from a speculative fringe to a central component of the modern financial landscape.

An administrative restructuring is underway at Soros Fund Management, founded by billionaire George Soros in the 1970s, as it plans to shutter its Hong Kong office, according to a Bloomberg report. Although the exact reasons were not disclosed, this move comes just days after Soros’ son, Alex Soros, through the family’s Open Society Foundations, wasted tens of millions of dollars backing the biggest Democrat loser in a generation: Kamala Harris. 

The New York-based investment firm, best known for its $10 billion trade against the British pound in 1992, explained in an emailed statement that its Asia investments will now be managed by traders in its New York and London offices. The firm added that it will continue allocating capital to managers in Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

Bloomberg reporters working on the story could not obtain further comment from the investment firm. 

A key question remains: Why is Soros Fund Management shrinking its Asian physical footprint? Bad china bets?

This administrative restructuring at the investment firm comes months after a major restructuring occurred within OSF over the summer. OSF reportedly laid off over 40% of its workforce worldwide and implemented a new operating model.

Even with all this restructuring, the philanthropic organizations controlled by the Soros family, with Alex Soros somewhere at the helm—and even further off the reservation than his father—wasted a lot of daddy’s money on supporting the biggest Democratic loser in a generation: Harris-Walz. This historic loss will be detrimental to the Soros family and far-left Davos elite, who push nation-wrecking globalist policies. The tide has turned.