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Traders Buy Everything They Sold Yesterday As Rate-Cut Expectations Rebound

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Traders Buy Everything They Sold Yesterday As Rate-Cut Expectations Rebound

After yesterday’s selling in bonds, stocks, gold, and crypto; today saw the reverse as the dollar dipped and everything else (except crude) rallied… as rate-cut expectations increased modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘Trump Trade’ reignited in stocks today, back to its highest this cycle…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow lagged on the day, down for the 4th straight day. The S&P and Small Caps managed to fight for small gains as Nasdaq outperformed…

Memes and Most Shorted stocks squeezed higher today, putting big pressure on hedgies – which significantly underperformed today…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s been a tough year for hedgies indeed…

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave equity-land, it would remiss of us not to note the massive 21% surge ($145BN) in TSLA stock today after earnings last night…

which explains why hedgies were proper fucked today

Treasuries were mid across the curve today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -5bps, 2Y -1bp) with the whole curve still holding above 4.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index declined today… pause that refreshes…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s gain in gold (erasing most of yesterday’s loss)…

Source: Bloomberg

…moved it to a new ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) high since January 1980…

Source: Bloomberg

Palladium broke out of its recent range today, now at its highest since Dec 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver accelerated further after Russia central bank headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

After yesterday’s dramatic inflows into BTC ETFs – which saw BTC prices fall…

Source: Bloomberg

…Bitcoin rallied back above $68,000 today

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices pumped and dumped today to end slightly red…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, USA sovereign risk is on the rise once again, now at one year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Is that the ultimate hedge for a ‘sweep’ in the election (either way).

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 16:00

“Completely Fabricated Persona”: Doug Emhoff Alleged Assault Victim Speaks

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“Completely Fabricated Persona”: Doug Emhoff Alleged Assault Victim Speaks

The woman who says Kamala Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff assaulted her has spoken out, telling the Daily Mail that the second gentleman slapped her so hard she spun around at a celebrity event in France.

Emhoff allegedly smacked his then-girlfriend because he believed she had been flirting with a valet. AP

Emhoff allegedly struck the woman, referred to as “Jane,” in the face while waiting in a valet line after a 2012 Cannes Film Festival event, because Emhoff thought she was flirting with a valet.

Emhoff and “Jane” via the Daily Mail

“What’s frightening for a woman that’s been on the other end of it, is watching this completely fabricated persona being portrayed,” said the woman, a successful New York attorney.

“He’s being held out to be the antithesis of who he actually is. And that is utterly shocking”

The bombshell allegations, which followed DailyMail.com’s revelation in August that Emhoff cheated on his first wife with his daughter’s nanny Najen Naylor, received little or no coverage from politically center-left major news outlets.

Emhoff admitted the affair in a statement in August but his spokesman gave only a short denial of the alleged violence to a politics news site a day after we exclusively reported the slap allegation. –Daily Mail

Emhoff, through a spokesperson, told Semafor that the report is “untrue,” and “any suggestion that he would or has ever hit a woman is false.”

Jane is disgusted.

“Every time I see Doug on TV portraying the persona of a perfect spouse and non-toxic man, I wonder if Najen is watching too and feeling as disgusted as I am,” she told the Mail, adding that Emhoff “slapped me so hard I spun around,” and that he once told her that his mistress accused him of causing her to miscarry their child.

According to Jane, “I was living in New York, and Doug was living in Los Angeles,” adding “I met him on Match.com.”

“After work one night I met him for drinks at a hotel near Times Square.”

Jane says Emhoff’s odd behavior began immediately when he invited his son Cole to join them around an hour into their first date in March 2012.

“It was an odd request for a first date, but I also felt bad that his son was walking around the city waiting for his dad to finish his Match.com date. So I agreed. In retrospect, it should have been a red flag.”

According to Jane, their relationship consisted of “an intense few months,” during which Emhoff discussed marriage and children after just a few weeks.

“He flew me to Los Angeles in April [2012]. I stayed in his home for a week. The entire time, he was alluding to marriage and having children with me,” she told the Mail.

“He was totally love-bombing me. He grabbed me round the stomach and talked about wanting more babies.”

Less than a month into her relationship, she got a lucrative job offer in the UK – which Emhoff implied he was willing to leave his family behind and join her for.

“He was really pushing me to pursue it, and he seemed like he was willing to come with me to London,” she said. “He was ready to uproot, even though he had a family, and he had a child still in junior high school.”

Emhoff has been previously dubbed by Democrats as a ‘wife guy’ and a ‘mensch’, a Yiddish term for an honorable, kind man. ‘He’s being held out to be the antithesis of who he actually is. And that is utterly shocking,’ Jane said

A copy of Jane and Emhoff’s itinerary shared with DailyMail.com shows a layover flight from Newark, New Jersey to Nice, France on May 22, 2012

Emhoff’s first wife and mother of his two kids, Kerstin, had filed to end their marriage three years earlier in June 2009, after splitting with him the month before, according to LA court documents. -Daily Mail

Jane said Emhoff seemed conflicted, however, about his ex. According to the report:

“We were in Santa Monica. He was driving his fancy car. And so I just straight out asked him: ‘I feel like you’re on the back foot in the divorce, like you’re trying to make up for something?”

“All I did was ask him one question, and he told me the whole story. Without skipping a beat, and staring straight ahead at the road, he tells me he had an affair with his daughter’s teacher and that subsequently she claimed that she was pregnant. He’s telling me this very casually like it’s no big deal.

“‘He yelled at her. He never said he hit her, but he said he got really angry with her, and she subsequently claimed that whatever he did caused her to lose the pregnancy.

“He said she got a lawyer and was threatening litigation. I was flabbergasted. And I was taken aback by how matter of fact he could talk about it.

“He tried to minimize it. He said there was no proof that the woman had become pregnant. He tried to make it seem like she was scamming him. 

“To be honest, I wanted to believe him at the time, because by all appearances this was turning into a serious relationship.”

“Every time I see Doug on TV portraying the persona of a perfect spouse and non-toxic man, I wonder if Najen is watching too and feeling as disgusted as I am,” Jane said.

According to LAPD records obtained by the Daily Mail, police were called to the house where Naylor was living for a “priority level three” (life threatening emergency) when she was allegedly pregnant in 2009. Jane says he settled with Naylor for around $80,000 and had her sign an NDA.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 15:45

Israel Delayed Iran Strike After US Intel Leak Of Attack Preparations

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Israel Delayed Iran Strike After US Intel Leak Of Attack Preparations

It has been over three weeks since Iran attacked Israel with huge ballistic missile strikes which numbered up to 200 projectiles, including alleged hypersonic missiles. At this point, one wonders whether Israel’s promised ‘retaliation’ strike will even take place by October’s end. Israeli officials have indicated it will happen before the US presidential election, however.

Israel’s military continues to telegraph the coming attack, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday having told pilots and air crews upon a visit to an air force base that “after we strike in Iran, everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process.”

A new report in Britain’s The Times newspaper claims that the potential retaliatory attack was delayed further when US intelligence on Israel’s preparations were leaked and made public.

Image via YNet News

“Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack,” The Times writes. “It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands.”

“The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components,” an intelligence source described as having knowledge of Israeli deliberations said.

“There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take,” the source told The Times.

The pair of documents were marked top secret and first appeared online Friday, and following an Axios report which verified their authenticity made headlines across the globe. They were authored by the Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the NSA.

One of the documents tracked the movements of heavy Israeli munitions from US spy satellites. “It made reference to Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles,” The Times notes – hence the concern over Iranians possibly being able to recognize ‘patterns’ on weapons movements based on the leak.

Officials have called this the most serious intelligence breach in years, which could damage the US-Israel intelligence sharing relationship.

Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer, explained to CNN that “the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded.”

Internal investigations have looked at the possibility that the leak was through a “Five Eyes” partner – which is the intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Reports have stated that the FBI and DoD believe the leak most likely came through an individual with clearance, and not a cyber intrusion or foreign hack. Given reports say that at least one of the documents was printed via a classified printer, it’s likely on a matter of time before the leaker is caught.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 15:05

KFC, Taco Bell, And Pizza Hut Remove Onions After E. Coli Outbreak 

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KFC, Taco Bell, And Pizza Hut Remove Onions After E. Coli Outbreak 

Update (1450ET):

Bloomberg reports that some Yum! Brands restaurants—such as Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC—are removing fresh onions from their menus in response to the E. coli outbreak affecting the US restaurant industry. 

Yum! told the media outlet that pulling diced onions is “out of an abundance of caution.” It did not disclose the produce supplier or specify which stores or affected regions. 

Earlier, Bloomberg shined the spotlight on onion producer Taylor Farms – after US Foods, the largest supplier of food in the country, issued a recall notification for onions from Taylor Farms. It urged restaurants nationwide that it supplies onions: “DESTROY THE PRODUCT.”

This all comes after a deadly E. coli outbreak linked to the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder left one person dead and dozens hospitalized. 

And it begins. 

*    *    *  

A fast-moving investigation into a deadly E. coli outbreak linked to the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder has left one person dead and dozens hospitalized. The probe prompted Taylor Farms to recall onion batches produced at its Colorado factory, which is suspected to be the source of the contamination. 

Taylor Farms, the supplier of onions to the McDonald’s locations involved in the multistate health investigation, announced that it has not yet detected E. coli in its products. However, Bloomberg noted that the commercial farm recalled the onions “out of an abundance of caution.”

Meanwhile, another big customer of Taylor Farms, US Foods, the largest supplier of food to food service operations in the country, issued a recall notification for Taylor Farms and Cross Valley Farms’ onion, urging restaurants nationwide that it supplies produce: “DESTROY THE PRODUCT.”  

The US Foods notice shows customers the affected onion products in various forms that must be destroyed.

The recall comes one day after the CDC investigated a deadly E. coli outbreak caused by McDonald’s Quarter Pound hamburgers with raw onions. A CDC post on X said 49 people across 10 states have been sickened, and one person has died.

Shares of MCD tumbled as much as 10% on the news on Tuesday- with shares Thursday morning still at the lows. 

The origin of the E. coli outbreak is still unclear. However, there is growing concern over food security risks as mega-corporations continue sourcing migrants for critical roles within the nation’s food supply chain. This could heighten the risk of contamination and disease spread. A serious conversation on this alarming issue is urgently needed on Capitol Hill. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 14:50

Trump Claims Kamala Isn’t Campaigning Because She Knows Something The American Public Doesn’t

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Trump Claims Kamala Isn’t Campaigning Because She Knows Something The American Public Doesn’t

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Donald Trump claimed that Kamala Harris is taking days off and not properly campaigning because she knows something about the election that the American public doesn’t.

Trump made the cryptic comments during his campaign rally in Georgia.

“This is a woman who took yesterday off, how do you take yesterday off?” asked Trump.

“You’ve got 13 days, you’re running for the presidency, she takes time off,” he added.

“I’ve got 52 days in a row and I’m not taking any days off, that I can tell you,” said Trump.

“I hear she’s taking another one tomorrow or something – it’s the craziest thing I’ve ever seen – maybe she knows something that we don’t know, that’s bad, right? Maybe she knows something we don’t know – does everybody understand that, maybe, maybe,” he concluded.

Respondents on X speculated that Trump was referring to Democrats cheating to win the election or the election not happening at all.

Harris had no speeches or public appearances scheduled for Tuesday, with her campaign only noting that she would take part in a recorded interview with NBC’s Hallie Jackson and another with Telemundo.

Her only major event yesterday was a town hall show with CNN that didn’t go too well as even Anderson Cooper made her look silly.

As we highlighted earlier, both former Congressman George Santos and journalist Eric Daugherty suggested that a story would come out today that will end Kamala’s campaign.

Some have expressed doubt given that previous supposedly scandalous stories about Harris and Tim Walz have fizzled into nothingburgers.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 13:20

Nobody Actually Reads Anything

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Nobody Actually Reads Anything

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Nobody actually directly reads anything

More US opinion polls are out: a mixed bunch but including a Wall Street Journal Trump +2, which is not just an electoral college, but a large popular vote win. More US early voting data is in: again, the story from Nevada and Georgia in particular looks good for Trump so far. While markets are taking a breather from the ‘Trump trade’ for the moment, yesterday saw the US 10-year yield hit 4.25% and USD/JPY push past 153, with that kind of action finally catching up with stocks for once, which dipped. It really needs to be underlined how out-of-the-ordinary it is to see yields soar and the dollar rip, alongside gold, after the Fed starts cutting with a 50bp move. These are far from ordinary times.

That is underlined by the current ‘ludicrous speed’ phase of the US election, where today’s headlines allege more Trump sex scandal from 30 years ago and a link to Jeffrey Epstein, while VP Harris compared him to Hitler and fascism: Trump has long called Harris a Marxist. All of this leaves the parts of the world wanting proper policy analysis and debate, and especially those with painfully vivid memories of Nazism and Marxism, despairing of Godwin’s Law and US electoral hyperbole that confuses an already historically illiterate generation into thinking “Arbeit macht fries.” For once the market’s stoic lack of interest in politics around it pays dividends.

What was worth paying attention to was a US Beige Book that noted “On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September… Despite elevated uncertainty, contacts were somewhat more optimistic about the longer-term outlook.” Which hardly screams “50 BASIS POINTS!” Neither does the labor market, where the view was, “On balance, employment increased slightly during this reporting period…Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. With the improvement in worker availability, contacts in multiple Districts pointed to a slowdown in the pace of wage increases. Still, larger than usual pay increases were reported for some workers.” Indeed, Boeing workers just turned down a 35% proposed pay hike by a 2-1 vote, and a logistics expert says there is an 80% chance that the globally disruptive ILA US east coast port strike will restart on 15 January.

That might flow through to views on inflation, where the Beige Book said things “continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts. Still, the prices of some food products, such as eggs and dairy, were reported to have increased more sharply… Contacts across several industries noted more acute pressures from rising insurance and healthcare costs. Multiple Districts reported that input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing firms’ profit margins.”

Let’s put that against what we saw/heard in other places:

  • The BOC met expectations by slashing rates 50bps, the most since March 2020, to 3.75%, declaring high inflation over. Except for house prices(?), where lower rates will help generate a recovery: exactly what an unaffordable market needs when wage growth will likely track inflation lower. CAD dipped and the 2-year Canadian yield briefly slipped below 3%.

  • South Korea’s finance minister commented, and retracted, that 1,400 in USD/KRW was a “new normal”, not a crisis (and, reportedly, that the BOK couldn’t raise rates to protect the currency).

  • The BOJ’s Ueda hinted at more rate hikes and risks from being overly cautious; but getting this right “Keeps me awake 24/7.” Not only him. The election result this weekend is also a wild card.

  • ECB speaker dovishness is evident too, with traders starting to speculate we might even see a 50bp Eurozooka for Christmas – which our expert Eurozone team are sceptical of.

  • The UK Chancellor is to reinterpret the fiscal rules so an extra £50bn in capex is possible by measuring government net liabilities vs. assets like student loans people may default on. Looser fiscal policy could imply less need for looser BOE monetary policy, but BOE Governor Bailey just underlined inflation is cooling faster than expected, suggesting more Carry On Cutting.

  • RBNZ Governor Orr bewailed, “I haven’t really talked to anyone who’s ever actually directly read the Monetary Policy Statement or the record of the meeting. Most people get it second-hand, filtered through a journalist’s mindset or a financial analyst’s position talking.” Here’s an open secret: journalists and analysts often don’t read the originals either! “Mindsets” are often pre-set.

That mindset, until recently, was that the Fed would lead the monetary policy charge, and everyone else would follow in synchronised fashion, but less aggressively. Are we now finally pricing for the Fed *not* being the most dovish major central bank, as it’s constrained to the downside looking at US yields, while most others are more constrained to the upside? The ‘Trump trade’ is dollar positive and shouts higher US yields; that drags everyone else’s yields up to some extent even if their economies can’t take it, unless they cut rates by more. Trump potentially using the Fed like the Reichsbank (I’ve been saying MEFO for years) has one hypothetical implication of a much steeper US curve; and of a much weaker US dollar; yet combined with a trade war that dries up global exporters’ dollar earnings, another is abundant dollar liquidity inside the US, but scarce greenbacks outside it, so a kind of USD-Y/USD-H à la Chinoise.

That would likely trigger major geopolitical issues few in markets are focusing on, but which the BRICS were all just discussing.

On which note, Israel’s Defense Minister Gallant just stated that planned airstrikes on BRICS member Iran -whom China has just pledged to develop “friendly cooperation” with- “will make the world understand its military might”, which doesn’t sound like a bluff from a man who understands deterrence. In terms of timing, there’s a logical case this could fall after the US election to minimize political fallout. On the other hand, in the Jewish calendar today is the anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel: if there’s political symbolism in that, it might point to action within the next 24 hours.

At the same time, the US is now saying it also believes North Korea may send troops to fight in Ukraine, which has seen South Korea threaten to send arms to Kyiv. While this is unconfirmed, it underlines how the wars in Europe and the Middle East risk conflating, as would any geopolitical tensions in East Asia. Like financial crises, what starts in one locale rarely stays there if other parties have interests, and in Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia everyone has a stake of sorts. This time, of course, central banks are not going to be able to do much about it – except listen to what politicians tell them they have to do to help.

We’ve flagged these fat tail risks – and that’s still all they are for now- repeatedly for years in various thought pieces and dailies. Of course, nobody actually reads reports, do they?

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 13:00

More Than 1,600 Voters Removed In Virginia Under Noncitizen Program

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More Than 1,600 Voters Removed In Virginia Under Noncitizen Program

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

More than 1,600 people have been removed from voter rolls in Virginia since August under the state’s program targeting noncitizens, which the Department of Justice (DOJ) and advocacy groups, who are suing the state, contend is illegal.

The scope of the removals was revealed after a federal magistrate, on Oct. 21, ordered the state to disclose the names and addresses of those removed to plaintiff groups, including the DOJ and the League of Women Voters.

Gov. Glen Youngkin (R-Va.) announced the program in August as part of an executive order that codifies election security measures that include creating a “best-in-the-nation voter list maintenance” program. He said that all legal votes should be counted without being “watered down by illegal votes or inaccurate machines.”

This prompted the Department of Justice (DOJ) to file a lawsuit earlier this month, alleging the program violates a 90-day “quiet period” ahead of the November election as required by the National Voter Registration Act.

“States must complete any program that systematically removes the names of ineligible voters from the official list of eligible voters no later than 90 days before a Voter Registration List Maintenance primary election or general election for federal office,” according to the DOJ’s website.

The quiet period exists to prevent the accidental disenfranchisement of legitimate voters in the election season by not providing an opportunity to fix errors before the election.

The DOJ has requested an injunction to block the program and restore the registrations of those removed from the rolls. A hearing is scheduled for Thursday in Alexandria.

The state has objected to an injunction in court filings, saying it would be an unnecessary intrusion into Virginia election procedures.

Youngkin has defended the Aug. 7 executive order, saying that it is based on the precedent of a 2006 state law. That state law directs the Department of Motor Vehicles to update the state Board of Elections monthly with a list of people who failed to prove their citizenship status. The list of noncitizens is forwarded to local registrars. The executive order called for noncitizens to be removed daily using that information.

The governor said that the process is “individualized” and not systematic, in a media interview.

“It starts with a basic premise that when someone walks into one of our DMV’s and self-identifies as a noncitizen, and then they end up on the voter rolls, either purposely or by accident, that we go through a process individualized, not systematic, an individualized process based on that person’s self-identification as a noncitizen, to give them 14 days to affirm they are a citizen and if they don’t, they come off the voter rolls,” Youngkin told Fox News.

Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares supported this argument in a court filing opposing the plaintiff’s request for the court to order the state and county election officials to “place back on the voter rolls people who were recently removed after identifying themselves as noncitizens in information they provided to the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles.”

The filing contends that the nature of a person self-reporting as a noncitizen at the DMV is done on an individual basis and therefore does not qualify as systematic.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 12:45

Angry Democratic Karens Rage-Review PA McDonald’s On Yelp After Trump’s Successful Campaign Stop

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Angry Democratic Karens Rage-Review PA McDonald’s On Yelp After Trump’s Successful Campaign Stop

Yelp has been forced to turn off reviews for the McDonald’s restaurant that President Trump made an appearance at over the weekend, after being flooded with “numerous negative reviews”.

Trump stopped at the McDonald’s on E. Street Rd. in Feasterville-Trevose, which closed for a few hours Sunday so Trump could mirror – and openly mock – Vice President Kamala Harris’ claim of working at McDonald’s in the 1980s. 

The visit sparked backlash, prompting Yelp to temporarily freeze the restaurant’s review page, according to Patch.

“This business is being monitored by Yelp’s Support team for content related to media reports,” Yelp’s page said. 

Patch reports that over 145 reviews were posted before Yelp paused comments with an “unusual activity alert” Tuesday, NBC10 reported. Some comments were vulgar or joking, while others criticized the franchise owner for hosting Trump.

Yelp wrote on the restaurant’s page: “This business recently received increased public attention, which often means people come to this page to post their views on the news.”

It continued: “While we don’t take a stand one way or the other when it comes to this incident, we’ve temporarily disabled the posting of content to this page as we work to investigate whether the content you see here reflects actual consumer experiences rather than the recent events.”

“Please note that we apply this same policy regardless of the business and regardless of the topic at issue. Read more on Yelp Support. If you’re here to leave a review based on a first-hand experience with the business, please check back at a later date.”

Thank you, come again!

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 12:25

Over 80% Of Americans Are In Favor Of Requiring Photo ID, Proof Of Citizenship To Vote

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Over 80% Of Americans Are In Favor Of Requiring Photo ID, Proof Of Citizenship To Vote

By Megan Brenan of Gallup

With less than two weeks to go in the presidential campaign and voting already underway in many states, 76% of U.S. adults favor the concept of early voting. Two other election law policies are supported by even more Americans — requiring photo identification to vote (84%) and providing proof of citizenship when registering to vote for the first time (83%).

Smaller majorities of Americans — 60% each — favor automatic voter registration, whereby citizens are registered when they do business with state agencies such as the Department of Motor Vehicles, and sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters. In contrast, majorities of Americans oppose removing people from voter registration lists if they haven’t voted in any elections in five years (64%) and limiting the number of drop boxes or locations for returning absentee ballots (58%).

Six of the seven election law policies measured in Gallup’s Oct. 1-12 poll were previously included in a July 2022 poll, and the public’s attitudes about all of them are similar now. The measure on views of requiring proof of citizenship for first-time registrants is new this year.

Forty-seven states and the District of Columbia offer early voting, and 36 states request identification of some kind to vote. All states offer voter registration at motor vehicle offices and other state agencies by federal mandate, while about half have implemented automatic registration, under which an interaction with a state government agency results in voter registration unless the person opts out. While states are required by federal law to maintain accurate voter rolls, which includes purging deceased and ineligible voters, implementation is left to the states, as are decisions about drop boxes for voting.

Requiring verification of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections has proven to be a contentious issue. While a handful of states have laws requiring proof of citizenship, they have faced legal challenges. The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in July — mostly on partisan lines — that would mandate proof of citizenship, but the U.S. Senate has not voted on it.

Democrats More Likely to Favor Laws Expanding Voting

Partisans’ attitudes about all seven of the election law policies tested diverge significantly, with Democrats more supportive than Republicans of policies that make voting easier and more accessible. Democrats broadly support early voting, sending absentee ballot applications to all voters and automatic voter registration, while far fewer Republicans favor each. Of these three policies, only early voting garners majority-level backing from Republicans — but at 57%, Republicans’ support is 38 percentage points lower than Democrats’.

Republicans are more supportive of policies that would help ensure ineligible people don’t vote. Republicans nearly unanimously back requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and photo identification when voting, but Democrats’ support for each policy is about 30 points lower (though still at the majority level). Smaller majorities of Republicans favor limiting drop boxes (61%) and purging voter rolls after five years of non-voting (51%). No more than one in five Democrats support either of these measures.   

Independents’ views of each policy are on par with the national averages.

Partisans’ views of most of the election law policies are generally stable; however, Democrats’ and Republicans’ opinions have each shifted significantly on one of them. Democrats are now 14 points more likely than they were in 2022 to support requiring photo identification to vote, and Republicans’ current 57% support for early voting — while not significantly different from 2022 — is down from 74% in a 2016 survey.

Broader Voter Access Higher Among People of Color

The ability of racial/ethnic minority groups to vote is a central concern of critics of restrictive election laws. People of color (those who identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian, Alaska Native, American Indian, or Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander) are more likely than White adults to support certain policies that aim to increase access to voting, including sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters and enacting automatic voter registration.

Meanwhile, White adults are more likely than people of color to support limiting drop boxes, removing people from voter registration lists and requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. The two broad racial/ethnic groups hold similar views on early voting and requiring photo identification when voting.

Bottom Line

Majorities of Americans favor a range of election law policies that expand voters’ access to the ballot box, including early voting, automatic voter registration and sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters. They also broadly support measures to limit fraud and ensure election integrity, including requiring photo identification to vote and providing proof of citizenship when first registering to vote. The public is much less supportive of two policies that would make it harder to vote, including limiting the number of drop boxes for absentee ballots and purging non-voters from voter registration lists.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 12:05

All The World’s A Stage: Everything Is Fake

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All The World’s A Stage: Everything Is Fake

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

No wonder we’re restless, teetering on the edge, frustrated by our addictions to fakery and excess, starved for what cannot be marketed or made profitable, so it no longer exists except in the shadows.

Everything is staged, and therefore fake. Given the near-zero cost of posting content in the digital world, everyone discovered that staging wasn’t limited to high-end political events, parades and Hollywood sets; since all the world’s a stage, everything could be staged, from every selfie on social media to every video on YouTube to every public display.

With staging comes spectacle, with spectacle comes self-serving artifice, and with artifice comes excess. The captivating idea of staging is by mimicking authenticity, we manifest an implicitly self-serving purpose: we stage the film to mimic “real life” to entertain the audience, and by this means reap a fortune.

By staging a political event, we rouse blood lust to serve our ascension to power. By staging a selfie in a swank bar sipping a costly cocktail, while home is a shared room in a squalid, overpriced flat, we serve our desire for a digitally distributed simulacrum of a status we cannot possibly achieve in our real lives.

Now that everything is staged, the competition to get noticed in a sea frothing with endless scrolls of “content” demands excess. Everything is now so sensationalized that we are desensitized to it all. As a result, everything distills down to self-parody, rendering parody impossible, for everything is already a parody of itself.

Mimicking authenticity to make the sale is now so embedded, so ubiquitous, that irony is also lost: we are living in a Philip K. Dick story come to life in which young women fabricating fake lives of glamor and luxury to boost their visibility are now competing with digitized imaginary young women that are idealized versions of the sexually compelling female.

Now that engagement is the coin of the Attention Economy realm, traditional media and social media have merged: everybody’s competing for engagement because that’s everyone’s source of income. Never mind that the Big Tech platforms skim the bulk of the engagement revenues and a handful of influencers reap the majority of what’s left; the mob is furiously dedicated to the task of picking up the pennies scattered in the sand-covered floor of the Coliseum.

In my view, engagement is the polite term for addiction, the core value proposition in Addiction Capitalism. As every dealer knows, there’s no more reliable source of revenue than a junkie with a monkey on his back, and encouraging addiction to screens is astoundingly profitable.

The fevered competition for eyeballs / visibility has generated a self-reinforcing feedback of faking authenticity better than other spectacles. The goal isn’t to present “real life,” what would be the point of such absurdly uncompelling, boring anti-spectacle?

The goal is to stage the mise en scene so cleverly that it really looks real: the rural kitchen in all its handmade glory, the “real food” lovingly prepared with simple tools, or the high-wire emotions of the indignant, filled to the brim with passionate intensity, planning their role when the rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born.

But authenticity cannot be profitably milked for long; we caught on long ago. The transformation into sensationalized, self-parodying staging makes a mockery of authenticity, and as everyone crowds onto the world stage seeking visibility and the money the right staging brings, authenticity dissipates into dark energy, present but invisible, undetectable, a fleeting shadow lost in the churning wake of spectacle.

French philosopher Guy Debord’s 1967 book, The Society of the Spectacle, sheds light on this transformation. (This is a PDF of the entire text.) “The vague feeling that there has been a rapid invasion which has forced people to lead their lives in an entirely different way is now widespread; but this is experienced rather like some inexplicable change in the climate, or in some other natural equilibrium, a change faced with which ignorance knows only that it has nothing to say.”

This reminds me of a comment French writer Michel Houellebecq made in an interview: “I have the impression of being caught up in a network of complicated, minute, stupid rules, and I have the impression of being herded towards a uniform kind of happiness, toward a kind of happiness that doesn’t really make me happy.”

The ceaseless staging and spectacles have deranged us. The mood of the mob is fast becoming ugly; even the victors of the staged games are being booed. The attention span of the audience has dwindled to the point that few even wait for the outcome of the contest to scream for somebody’s blood. The crowd is no longer satiated by gore or drama, and even the comedic interludes no longer mask the sense that the mob is one spark away from taking their rage and frustration out on each other–the vicarious thrills are no longer enough.

This is the fruit of relying on fakery, of believing that no one can tell the difference between authenticity and staged simulacra. The audience craves something real, and what’s served up as “real” is just another self-serving mise en scene. No wonder we’re restless, teetering on the edge, frustrated by our addictions to fakery and excess, starved for what cannot be marketed or made profitable, so it no longer exists except in the shadows.

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/24/2024 – 09:25