No president should be trusted to operate outside the bounds of the US Constitution, this is a lesson that has been repeated on multiple occasions throughout American history.  Each president should be held accountable for direct violations of their oath of office and each president should be scrutinized by the American public.  With that ideal in mind, it’s interesting that the establishment has devoted so much time and energy to pursuing only one president in recent memory for supposed constitutional violations, and that man is Donald Trump. 

The numerous trespasses perpetrated by the Clintons, the Bush family, Barack Obama, and the Biden/Harris team have gone completely ignored.  Why is it that they get a pass while Trump is placed under an electron microscope?

Keep in mind, only a couple years ago the American public was embroiled in a life-or-death battle to stop their constitutional rights from being erased forever by the Biden Administration and their globalist handlers.  Biden’s vaccine passport efforts were particularly troubling; if they have been successful the Bill of Rights would be effectively dead and the federal government would have total control over every detail of civilian life.

Good luck keeping a job, going to public places, keeping your kids and staying out of a covid camp should you refuse to take the latest mRNA booster shot.  That’s the future Americans were facing under Biden/Harris and the Democrats.

Covid hysteria and the government response is exactly what fascism looks like, and a large number of Democrats cheered for these policies.  This is why the accusations by the political left calling Donal Trump “literal Hitler” ring rather hollow.  They’ve been acting like authoritarians for the past four years they’ve been in power and the hypocrisy is steaming. 

Kamala Harris recently held a press briefing to make a statement comparing Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler, an action which smacks of panic in the midst of polling numbers which increasingly show Trump winning by a landslide in November.  In only two weeks, the Democrats face a conservative red wave the likes of which hasn’t been seen in decades.  It’s obvious they’ve run out of ideas on how to counter this outcome.  

NOW – Kamala Harris: “Trump would invoke Adolf Hitler, the man who is responsible for the death of six million Jews.”pic.twitter.com/Ncf68d853x

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) October 23, 2024

Harris’ accusation that Trump “wants generals like Hitler had” is based on a hearsay claim from Gen. John Kelly.  This is the same man that Trump fired while in office for incompetence.  The same man that claimed in 2023 that Trump called military casualties “suckers” and “losers”.  There is no proof to verify any of Kelly’s assertions.

‘Trump is Hitler’ was just one giant MSM psyop. 

‘Trump is Hitler’ was a Psyop. pic.twitter.com/SpalgEqDBQ

— Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) October 24, 2024

Data from Bloomberg shows MSM has been pushing ‘Trump Nazi’ hate campaign for nearly a decade.  

It is true, though, that Trump suggested using the National Guard to stop leftist riots.  Trump noted in an interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo in an interview on “Sunday Morning Futures” that:

“I think the bigger problem are the people from within. We have some very bad people. We have some sick people. Radical left lunatics…”

“I think it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen…”

The corporate media has latched onto this narrative, suggesting that this is a precursor to a fascist future.  But if one remembers back to the days of the BLM riots and burning cities, the idea of National Guard intervention makes perfect sense.  Military intervention is another matter and it’s fair to debate such a premise.  However, let’s not forget that there have been at least two separate and nearly successful assassination attempts against Trump by leftists (both donators to ActBlue). 

It’s not crazy to suggest that extreme violence on the part of the political left is possible in the event of a Trump win.  They’ve proven capable of it on numerous occasions.  Almost everyone expects a civil war to break out over the 2024 election.  Trump was commenting on that possible scenario. 

It’s also unlikely that Americans today are as willing to tolerate mass political violence from leftists the way they did four years ago.  Trump addressing the issue bluntly is not an endorsement of Hitler or fascism, its a recognition of the instability of our times.   

The political left is well aware that they are likely to lose in November; they might be giving their devout followers the green light to become violent post-election using the Hitler narrative as a rationale.  If Trump is “literally Hitler” then all violence is justified, is it not?  

Initial jobless claims tumbled last week from 242k to 227k as the impact of Hurricane Helene starts to fade from the benefits rolls…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Hurricane Milton’s impact on Florida is suddenly very evident…

…as North Carolina claims fall back…

Source: Bloomberg

However, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.897 million Americans – the highest since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

So, take your pick! Cut rates because of soaring continuing claims… or ‘hold’ as initial claims revert back towards multi-year lows?

After three straight days of selling, US equity futures are higher with tech stocks leading gains as Tesla surged 13% in premarket trading after it posted its biggest quarterly profit in more than a year. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 8:00 a.m. in New York, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.8%, setting up the tech index to rebound from its sharpest decline in almost seven weeks as traders look ahead to earnings from the rest of the “Magnificent Seven,” kicked off by Tesla’s strong performance. The benchmark has yet to fully claw back a summer slump. Overnight, NVDA supplier SK Hynix posted record profit amid strong AI demand; BA fell 2.7% as its bid to end strikes fails while IBM slumped after the it posted underwhelming revenue in the third quarter. Bond yields are lower and the USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-year yields are 3bp, 5bp, 5bp lower. Commodities, including oil, metals and Ags, are mostly higher: Oil +1.9%, Silver +1.8%, Aluminum +1.8% but Palladium is the standout, surging 10% on news the US may impose sanctions on Russian palladium exports (the country produces 38% of global palladium). The main data highlight will be the October flash PMIs from around the world. In the US, we’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims, along with new home sales for September.

In premarket trading, Tesla soared 13%, its biggest post-earnings jump since Q3 2019, after the EV maker reported its biggest quarterly profit in over a year and issued upbeat 2025 targets. IBM slumped 4% after reporting underwhelming revenue in the third quarter. Weakness in the company’s consulting and infrastructure businesses weighed on the results. Boeing slipped 3% as factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years. NVDA supplier SK Hynix posted record profit amid strong AI demand; NVDA +1.0%. BA fell 2.7% as its bid to end strikes fails. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Harley-Davidson (HOG) drops 2% as motorcycle shipments fell in the latest quarter on lower overall demand and fewer sales of its highest-margin bikes.
• Honeywell (HON) falls 3% after the industrial conglomerate lowered its revenue outlook for the year.
• Lam Research (LRCX) rises 6% after the semiconductor equipment maker reported better-than-expected 1Q results.  Investors will welcome this report after ASML’s weak report, analysts said.
• Newmont shares (NEM) drops 5% after the gold miner reported 3Q profit that missed amid higher costs.
• Seadrill (SDRL) surges 10% after Bloomberg reported the offshore drilling contractor is in talks to merge with rival Transocean, citing people familiar with the matter.
• T-Mobile (TMUS) advances 2% after reporting more monthly mobile-phone and broadband subscribers that analysts expected.
• United Parcel Service (UPS) jumps 7% after the company returned to sales and profit growth for the first time in nearly two years

Today’s market gains mark a resumption of the rally that took the S&P 500 to its 47th record high last week. Traders are bracing for more results from US tech giants, a turbulent US presidential race and the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. With Alphabet, Amazon.com and Meta reporting next week “I would be hesitant to say we are through this earnings season,” said Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies at Robeco. “Earnings expectations have been downgraded more this quarter than in previous quarters and the bar to beat them was really low this time.”

Investors also have a flurry of US economic data to parse Thursday for clues on the Federal Reserves’s next move on interest rates. The latest snapshot of the health of the labor market is likely to get the most attention.

“If today’s initial jobless claims come in much below consensus forecasts of 242,000, that could send a further signal to rate setters not to overdo it on the loosening front,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown

European stocks rise as good earnings reports from a range of companies boost the market after three days of declines. Retail stocks are the only sector in the red. The travel and leisure sub-sector is the strongest performer, boosted by Evolution which rallied after in-line results lay investor concerns to rest after a major strike. Miners and personal-care stocks also outperform.
Stoxx 600 rises 0.6% to 521.73 with 159 members down, 430 up, and 11 little changed. The purchasing managers’ numbers did little to ease fears that the region’s economy is slipping back into stagnation and the probability of a half-point rate reduction by the European Central Bank in December is now a coin toss. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Hermes shares rise as much as 3.4% after the French maker of high-end goods saw its sales beat estimates, signaling that companies catering to wealthy clients are weathering a luxury slowdown.
• Unilever shares gain as much as 3.1% after the consumer-goods company reported third-quarter underlying sales growth that came ahead of consensus estimates.
• Evolution shares gain as much as 14%, the biggest jump since April 2021, after the gaming firm delivered in-line results in the third quarter, offering relief in the wake of a major strike.
• Danone shares advance as much as 2.6% after the French yogurt maker reported third-quarter like-for-like sales growth that beat consensus expectations.
• Barclays shares jump as much as 4.3% to a 9-year high after it reported a surprise increase in 3Q fixed-income trading and total income that beat estimates, while upgrading guidance for UK NII.
• Orange shares rise as much as 2.3% after the French telecom operator reported revenue that beat expectations in its home market, easing concerns about rising competition.
• Dassault Systemes shares slip as much as 3.2% after the software firm delivered results for the third quarter which came in toward the bottom end of the guided range.
• Michelin shares drop as much as 8.1%, the most since March 2022, after the French tiremaker lowered its full-year segment operating income target, although lifted guidance for free cash flow.
• Kone shares fall as much as 3.9% after the Finnish elevator firm’s 3Q earnings arrived “mixed,” with Jefferies noting weaker demand in China and soft pricing key negatives in the report.
• SEB shares decline as much as 5.6% after missing expectations on the key net interest income (NII) metric, a disappointment following strong prints from its Nordic peers earlier, according to analysts.
• Edenred shares slide as much as 18%, the most on record, after the French payment-service provider said it faces a hit on Ebitda should a proposal to cap commisions in Italy go ahead.
• Hemnet shares slump as much as 14%, the most since August 2022, after the Swedish real estate listings platform saw results come in below analyst expectations in the third quarter.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities headed for a fourth day of declines, dragged down by Chinese stocks. Technology shares slid following few key earnings reports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% to its lowest level in a month after swinging between gains and losses earlier in the day. Benchmark heavyweight TSMC erased gains while Alibaba and Tencent declined. Korean memory maker SK Hynix advanced after posting record quarterly profit, while Asian EV stocks were mixed after strong results from Tesla. Key gauges in Hong Kong and China were the region’s worst performers, resuming this month’s losses after September’s big gains. Traders continue to assess Beijing’s commitment to delivering stimulus, with few details so far on its plans to boost the economy and markets.

In FX, Bloomberg gauge of the dollar fell alongside Treasury yields, paring gains seen over the previous three sessions, ahead of claims and PMI releases. The euro edged higher after a slate of mixed PMI figures. The yen outperforms most G-10 peers, rising 0.6% against the greenback after the finance minister warned he is raising the level of urgency for monitoring currency moves.

• EUR/USD rises 0.1% to 1.0796; common currency higher for first day in four
• USD/JPY down 0.5% to 151.97 after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned over “one-sided, rapid moves” in FX after a G-20 meeting in Washington
• GBP/USD rises 0.4% to 1.2977, just above pair’s 100-DMA at 1.2966; Gilt yields rise on report Chancellor Rachel Reeves will give herself an extra £53 billion of borrowing headroom in next week’s budget

In bonds, treasuries hold gains in early US session, paring losses that pushed yields for several tenors to multimonth highs Wednesday. US yields are richer by 3bp-6bp across the curve led by long end, leaving 2s10s spread ~2bp flatter on the day; 10-year, down 5bp at 4.19% near session low, outperforms UK 10-year by 8bp. European government bonds climbed on rate-cut expectations as data showed a downtrend in private-sector activity extended into a second month. German 10-year yields fall 3 bps to 2.27%. Most euro-zone yields also are lower while UK bonds fall after reports Chancellor Rachel Reeves will look to significantly increase borrowing in next week’s budget. UK 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 4.24%; gilts failed to match a rally in their US and European peers following reports Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be looking to significantly increase her ability to borrow in next week’s budget. Bunds extended gains after weak French PMI data as traders increased bets on a 50 bps interest-rate cut by the ECB in December. US session includes weekly jobless claims and S&P Global PMIs, following mixed European PMI readings.

In commodities, oil prices rebounded with WTI rising 1.9% to $72 a barrel as traders continued to await a retaliatory Israeli strike on Iran.. Spot gold rises $22 to around $2,737/oz.

Looking ahead, US economic data calendar includes September Chicago Fed national activity index and weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am), October preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am), September new home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack at 8:45am

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 5,865.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 522.34
• MXAP down 0.2% to 186.97
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 599.84
• Nikkei up 0.1% to 38,143.29
• Topix little changed at 2,635.57
• Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 20,489.62
• Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,280.26
• Sensex little changed at 80,013.97
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 8,206.26
• Kospi down 0.7% to 2,581.03
• German 10Y yield down 3 bps at 2.27%
• Euro up 0.1% to $1.0798
• Brent Futures up 1.5% to $76.08/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,736.77
• US Dollar Index down 0.22% to 104.20

Top Overnight News

• Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he is raising the level of urgency for monitoring currency moves, after the yen hit an almost three-month low against the dollar. BBG
• China is pressuring automakers to pause EU expansion plans due to its escalating EV tariff spat with Brussels, people familiar said. That’s already led to Dongfeng halting potential plans to make cars in Italy. BBG
• Eurozone flash PMIs are mixed for Oct, with a shortfall on Services (51.2 vs. the Street 51.5 and down from 51.4 in Sept) and modest beat on Manufacturing (45.9 vs. the Street 45.1 and up from 45 in Sept). RTRS
• Barclays shares climb in European trading after the company reported solid Q3 results, w/upside on pre-tax income (GBP2.2B vs. the Street ~GBP2B), and the company raised its full-year NII guide. RTRS
• BOE Governor Bailey says UK inflation is cooling faster than expected, although he warned that services inflation still needs to come down. FT
• Global bond sales will climb 17% this year to about $9 trillion after robust third quarter activity, S&P Global said, as it raised its previous estimate. Issuance may moderate to a 4% gain next year. BBG
• Trump takes a 2-point lead over Harris in a new WSJ national poll (47-45%), a shift from the last survey in Aug which had Harris up 2 points. WSJ
• Tesla shares jumped on its blowout results, buoyed by a profit-turning Cybertruck, and Elon Musk’s promise of 20% to 30% delivery growth next year. Uber and Lyft stock fell on Musk’s aim to roll out ridesharing in Texas and California in 2025. BBG
• Boeing’s largest union rejected a new labor deal Wednesday, extending a six-week strike that has plunged the jet maker into increasing financial peril. Members of the machinist union voted 64% against a proposed contact that would have delivered a 35% wage increase over four years, union leaders said. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded somewhat cautiously following the losses stateside where the major indices declined as participants digested earnings releases and negative stock-specific updates, while yields also continued to edge higher. ASX 200 initially retreated following a further deterioration in manufacturing PMI data but then gradually clawed back opening losses with the recovery spearheaded by resilience in defensives and tech. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as participants reflected on recent currency moves and Japanese PMI data contracted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid weakness in the tech and property sectors with the latter industry not helped after Moody’s noted that several developers are to feel earnings pain, while macro newsflow remained quiet and a continuation of the firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC also failed to inspire a turnaround.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels and intervention but noted it is desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and is closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, while he added that one-sided, rapid FX moves were recently seen in the FX market.
• BoJ Financial System Report: “Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand stress similar to the global financial crisis…”

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.7%) began the session very modestly in positive territory, and sentiment has continued to improve as the morning progressed; as it stands, indices generally reside at session highs. The complex was generally unreactive to the French/German/EZ. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Travel & Leisure tops the pile, lifted by post-earnings gains in Evolution (+12.8%) and Sodexo (+4.5%). Autos were initially towards the middle of the pile, but moved up the gears amid Bloomberg reports that China is pressuring automakers to pause expansion in the EU due to the escalating trade conflict. US Equity Futures (ES +0.5% NQ +0.5% RTY +0.5%) are broadly on a firmer footing, in tandem with strength seen across European indices, and in an attempt to reclaim some of the pressure seen in prior session.  Notable European earnings: Kering (+2%, rev. miss & guidance cut), Hermes (+1.9%, Sales beat), Barclays (+3.8%, strong results), Unilever (+3.9%, Sales beat).

Top European News

• ECB’s Holzmann said a quarter-point rate cut is probable in December and they are unlikely to have a 50bps cut in December but such a move is possible, while another option is a hold due to the October move, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Vasle says no urgency in talking about undershooting inflation target and cutting rates below neutral; should keep cutting rated in “measured” increments.

FX

• USD is softer vs. peers with the recent rally in DXY pausing for breath. Fresh macro drivers for the US have been on the light side, but will pick-up in the form of jobless claims and PMIs, later today. DXY remains on a 104 handle and within Wednesday’s 104.09-104.57 range.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers in the wake of this morning’s PMI data. EUR/USD was nudged lower in early trade following soft French PMI metrics; thereafter, the pair was granted some reprieve following slightly more encouraging German figures before the final EZ release printed mixed but underscored the complex growth picture for the region. EUR/USD currently sits around 1.08.
• GBP was top of the G10 leaderboard early doors following a Reeves-induced jump in UK yields before upside for the pound was tempered by a softer outturn for UK PMI data. Cable is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.2908-95 range and below its 100DMA at 1.2964.
• JPY is clawing back some ground vs. the USD in an attempt to reverse the recent trend which saw USD/JPY print a fresh multi-month peak at 153.18 yesterday. By way of comparison, yesterday’s low is still some way of at 150.97. Japanese Finance Minister Kato attempted to jawbone the currency overnight.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD as markets trade in a more pro-risk environment. AUD/USD has managed to move back above its 200DMA at 0.6628; NZD/USD is currently tucked within yesterday’s 0.5991-0.6053 range.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1286 vs exp. 7.1284 (prev. 7.1245).

Fixed Income

• Bunds are on a firmer footing and were heading higher into the French PMI metrics, which were weak and sparked some modest upside to a 133.27 peak. Thereafter, a strong (relatively speaking) set of data from Germany saw EGBs essentially pare this move to current levels of around 133.11. EZ PMIs were mixed and ultimately had little impact on price action.
• Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks and then extended lower by another 14 to a 95.70 base. Pressure which came on the back of a Guardian report that Chancellor Reeves will today confirm she will change the figure underpinning the existing fiscal rule to a broader measure, something she is expected to announce to the IMF later today. UK Flash PMIs were soft across the board with the outlook tepid and weighed on by numerous points of uncertainty; metrics which lifted Gilts modestly into the green, to a short-lived 96.31 peak. As it stands, Gilts are currently trading around 96.09.
• USTs are firmer and pulled around alongside the above Flash PMIs ahead of its own release and weekly jobs data. Holding towards the 111-12 session high with the curve modestly flatter though with action across it a touch mixed at points as the belly finds itself the marginal laggard from a yield perspective.

Commodities

• Crude is on a firmer footing, initially catching a bid following unconfirmed reports which indicated a fire in proximity to a Iranian nuclear facility in Karaj; this move ultimately proved fleeting given the lack of details. Soon after, upside returned alongside a pickup in broader sentiment with Brent Dec currently near highs at around USD 76.34/bbl.
• Spot gold is firmer, bolstered by the softer USD and yield environment in the US and EZ. At a USD 2737/oz peak, which is the lowest daily-high for the week thus far.
• Base metals are generally in positive territory, given the encouraging risk tone which has emerged despite a cautious APAC handover.
• Iraq’s Kerbala (140,000bpd) refinery to operate at around 50% capacity in the coming days.

Geopolitics

• “An Iranian opposition organisation reports a fire at the nuclear power plant in the city of Kharaj; There are no reports from official Iranian media”, via N12 News. Note, original N12 report on X has since been deleted.
• Israel Broadcasting Corporation announced IDF’s readiness to respond to the Iranian missile attack. Thereafter, Israeli Broadcasting Authority, via Sky News Arabia, reports “Israel on the verge of launching an attack on Iran despite US pressure”
• Explosions were heard in Syria’s capital Damascus as a result of Israeli aggression, according to Syrian state TV.
• Iraqi armed factions loyal to Iran announced the targeting of a vital target in the Golan with drones.
• Pentagon said US Secretary of Defense Austin expressed concern in a call with his Israeli counterpart about reports of strikes against the Lebanese army, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Turkey hit PKK targets in Northern Iraq and Syria after a deadly attack in Ankara, according to Turkish security sources.
• US President Biden said the US is announcing today that it will provide USD 20bln in loans to Ukraine.
• US asked G7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium, according to Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 242,000, prior 241,000
  • Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
• 08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.12
• 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.5, prior 47.3
  • Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.0, prior 55.2
  • Oct. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.8, prior 54.0
• 10:00: Sept. New Home Sales, est. 720,000, prior 716,000
  • Sept. New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -4.7%
• 11:00: Oct. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -7, prior -8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What started out as a one off vague curiosity 3 years ago has now seemingly become a permanent October half-term long weekend fixture, without me necessarily agreeing to it. Yes, we’re off to Center Parcs tomorrow and my wife has signed me up to do Kayaking and a high zipwire across a lake amongst many other things that aren’t golf. Happy days!

Markets continued to slide down the wire yesterday, with bonds and equities both losing ground for a third day running. Maybe the long awaited close election sell-off is arriving, albeit after 6 successive weeks of rallying. Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte have talked about it in their recent piece here. Basically the vol premium for the day after the election is currently moving progressively higher in the same way it did ahead of close elections in 2016 and 2020. In both these years it got ever higher as the election day approached as investors basically bought protection, thus putting downward pressure on the cash market. In 2016 and 2020, once the event passed and life moved on that protection either rolled off or was in the money, leading to buying of the market and starting the post-election rally. The irony is that at the moment, the election looks close, but if the current polling and prediction markets momentum around Trump continues its possible that the pre-election trends of 2016 and 2020 won’t reoccur as it will appear less close. But for now it’s starting to move to the 2016/2020 script. See Binky and Parag’s piece for more about the equity market as we head into the election and into year-end.

Against that pre-election backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.92%) was down for a third consecutive day. It did partially recover after trading down -1.5% a couple of hours before the close, but this still marks its worst 3-day run since early September (-1.15%). The reversal was led by a sharp loss for the Magnificent 7 (-2.15%), with Nvidia (-2.81%), Amazon (-2.63%) and Meta (-3.15%) all seeing sizeable declines.

After the close however, the mood turned a bit more positive as Tesla delivered a strong set of Q3 results. The automaker is now projecting a slight increase in deliveries for the current year, despite the earlier slump in the first half of the year, and with CEO Elon Musk forecasting a 20-30% growth in vehicle deliveries in 2025. Tesla’s share price jumped by 12% in post-market trading after sliding by -1.98% during the regular session yesterday. If that rise materialises today, it would largely erase Tesla’s -14% YTD decline. In turn, that’s helped to lift US equity futures this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.19%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.48%) both pointing higher.

With just 12 days until the US election, yesterday also saw “Trump trades” continue to outperform. That comes as forecast models and prediction markets have continued to move in Trump’s direction, with the RealClearPolitics average of betting markets now giving him a 59% chance of victory. In terms of market moves, that saw Trump Media & Technology Group (+4.42%) reach a three-month high, whilst the recent rise in Treasury yields has also been connected to a growing probability of a Trump victory. Conversely, solar energy firms continued to lose ground given the perception they’d do better under a Democratic administration, including losses for First Solar (-4.46%) and SolarEdge Technologies (-14.99%).

Earlier in Europe, equities posted modest declines, with the STOXX 600 (-0.30%) losing ground for a third consecutive day, alongside losses for the DAX (-0.23%) and the CAC 40 (-0.50%).

The US sell-off yesterday was probably also influenced by investors dialling back the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. In fact, by the close yesterday, futures were pricing in the most hawkish rate path since the market turmoil back in the summer. So with fewer rate cuts priced in, and post-election fiscal concerns edging up, US Treasury yields continued to move higher yesterday, and the 10yr yield was up +3.8bps to 4.25%. That’s its highest level in almost three months, and marks a decent comeback from its intraday low of 3.60% back on September 17. Yesterday’s move wasn’t helped by a soft 20yr Treasury auction that saw bonds issued 1.6bp above the when-issued yield, their largest tail since May.

In terms of that rate path for the Fed, the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2025 meeting was up another +6.3bps yesterday to 3.49%, meaning that it’s now up by more than 70bps from its recent low on September 16th. Or in other words, investors have gone from expecting 256bps of rate cuts by the end of next year (including the 50bps last month), to just 183bps by the close yesterday.

It was a different story in Europe however, as speculation mounted about the ECB delivering a larger 50bp rate cut. That was supported by comments from several officials, and ECB President Lagarde said they were “rather satisfied” with how inflation has moved lower. In the meantime, Portugal’s Centeno said that “50 basis points can be on the table”, whilst Bundesbank President Nagel said that “we keep our flexibility in every direction”. Later on, we heard Italy’s Panetta comment that “I would not take for granted, given the weakness of the economy, that we have to stop at the neutral rate”, echoing the tone of a Reuters report early in the day that some ECB policymakers have begun to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral. So that backdrop meant that yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-2.4bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) all fell back, in contrast to the moves among US Treasuries.

That speculation about a 50bp rate cut then got a further boost from the Bank of Canada, who delivered their first 50bp cut of this cycle, taking their policy rate down to 3.75%. In the press conference, Governor Macklem said that their focus was “to maintain low, stable inflation. We need to stick the landing.” Moreover, he said that they “anticipate cutting our policy rate further to support demand and keep inflation on target”. So with the Fed and the Bank of Canada having now cut by 50bps at their recent meetings, that contributed to speculation that the ECB could soon follow as well.

Elsewhere, the mixture of US rates underperformance and the broader risk-off tone saw the dollar index (+0.34%) advance to its highest level since the start of August. It’s now risen for 15 of the past 18 sessions, with the euro falling to its weakest against the dollar since early July. The risk-off tone wasn’t helped by the Fed’s Beige Book either, which painted a more cautious picture on the US economy, suggesting that “…economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts”.

Events in the Middle East continue to lurk in the background, particularly in terms of how Israel might retaliate against Iran’s missile strikes earlier this month. So far there’s still no news on that, and Brent crude oil prices (-1.42%) fell back to $74.96/bbl yesterday, while WTI (-1.83% to $70.77/bbl) posted a larger decline as EIA data showed a larger than expected increase in US crude inventories. However, that’s mostly reversed overnight, with Brent crude oil prices up +1.13% this morning to $75.81/bbl. Separately, gold prices (-1.22%) also came off their record high on Tuesday as US real yields continued to move higher and concerns about inflation slipped back slightly.

Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices are trading lower this morning, which comes against the backdrop of weaker economic data overnight. For instance, we’re starting to get the October flash PMIs now, and Japan’s composite PMI was down to 49.4, which is the weakest reading since November 2022. Moreover, both the manufacturing (49.0) and services (49.3) prints were also beneath the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Meanwhile in South Korea, Q3 GDP growth came in softer-than-expected, at just +0.1% (vs. +0.4% expected), after contracting by -0.2% in Q2.

With that in mind, equities are struggling in Asia this morning, with the Hang Seng (-0.99%) as the biggest underperformer overnight. That’s been echoed elsewhere, with losses for the CSI 300 (-0.80%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.50%), the KOSPI (-0.37%) and the Nikkei (-0.11%). Australia is the one exception however, as the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.02%) has just about managed to post a modest gain.

There wasn’t too much data yesterday, although US existing home sales slowed to an annualised rate of 3.84m in September (vs. 3.88m expected), which is their lowest level since October 2010. In the meantime, the European Commission’s consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area ticked up to -12.5 in October, which is its highest level since February 2022.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the October flash PMIs from around the world. In the US, we’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims, along with new home sales for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the BoE’s Mann, the ECB’s Kazaks and Lane, and the Fed’s Hammack.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Former Congressman George Santos claims that a devastating new story about Kamala Harris set to drop today will cause prominent Democrats to distance themselves from her campaign.

Santos made the claim in a video clip posted to X that has received over 2.5 million views.

“Gotta tell you something, it’s so crazy, I just off the phone with a source and they’re telling me that tomorrow the Kamala Harris ship sinks,” said Santos.

“You’re gonna see all the rats jumping off – the story that’s gonna break tomorrow is so damning and so so bad that Democrats are going to distance themselves from her like something you’ve never seen before and essentially you might even see some asking for people to vote for Trump,” he added.

Breaking! It’s all over for VP Kamla Harris tomorrow!

Democrats are going to be wishing they never dumped Joe!

These allegations that were just shared with me are horrible! pic.twitter.com/DFy8lCDuXQ

— George Santos (@MrSantosNY) October 24, 2024

“This is wild!” claimed Santos.

In a follow up post, the former Congressman asserted that he was not suicidal.

“Folks for the record, I George Anthony Devolder Santos aka George Santos am NOT suicidal!” he stated on X.

Folks for the record, I George Anthony Devolder Santos aka George Santos am NOT suicidal!

❤️🙏🏼

— George Santos (@MrSantosNY) October 24, 2024

Trump supporters will be treating the issue with caution given that there have been other supposedly ‘devastating’ stories about the Kamala and her running mate Tim Walz in recent weeks that turned out to be nothingburgers.

The fact that Santos was expelled from Congress last year following an investigation by the House Ethics Committee and a federal indictment will undoubtedly be used by Democrats to dismiss the credibility of the story.

Santos also pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identify theft in August of this year.

Suffice to say, he’s not exactly the best source, but it will be interesting to see what the story turns out to be nonetheless.

Meanwhile, journalist Eric Daugherty also says he has been pitched a story that would “end her campaign.”

👀👀

I’ve just been pitched a story.

If true, this would have severe ramifications for the Harris campaign.

My oh my… it would likely, dare I say, end her campaign.

That’s what I hear, at least.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

For decades, the US Federal Reserve has carefully cultivated and promoted the idea that it is somehow separate and independent from the US regime that created it. 

The ruse has certainly worked. Economists and media pundits frequently refer to this alleged Fed “independence” as if it were a given, and as if there were a wall of separation between the executive branch and the central bank. Others take it even further, and in podcasts and social media one encounters a variety of crackpot theories asserting that the Fed is somehow at odds with the regime, or that the Fed answers only to bankers without regard for the regime’s agenda. Some of those who have been hoodwinked by the Fed-independence myth will, at times, even claim that the Fed is some kind of benevolent fifth column that’s trying to undermine federal fiscal profligacy and save the dollar from tax-and-spend politicians. 

Yes, the senior technocrats at the Fed don’t always agree with Congressional or White House priorities, but the same could be said of diplomats at the State Department. Few would claim, however, that disagreement means there is “State-Department independence.” 

Indeed, its true that bureaucrats generally prefer to do their own thing without having to get approval from the higher-ups. In this respect, Fed personnel are no different from senior technocrats at any executive-branch department.

In practice, however, historical experience shows that, time and again, the Federal Reserve has “coordinated” its policies with those of the Treasury and the administration to ensure that the federal government gets exactly what it wants from the central bank. 

Keeping the War Machine Going

During the great Depression and the Second World War, for example, the executive branch under Franklin Roosevelt overtly managed the Federal Reserve and required the Fed’s close cooperation with the White House. During this period, the Fed had attempted to gain more autonomy, but only ostensibly succeeded in doing so with a 1935 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act. These timid efforts at independence were cut short by the onset of the Second World War. According to a report from the Richmond Fed, 

When the United States entered World War II, the Fed became again a mechanism by which the government could more cheaply finance the war effort. In April 1942, the Fed announced a policy of cooperating with the Treasury to keep interest rates low. By 1947, the Fed was summarizing its “primary duty” as “the financing of military requirements and of production for war purposes.” In his memoirs, [Fed Chairman Marriner] Eccles even described his work during this period as “a routine administrative job” as the Fed “merely executed Treasury decisions.” Alan Sproul, the president of the New York Fed, lamented, “We are not the masters in our own house.”

During this period, the Fed was called upon to perform the primary function of all central banks: help the regime finance war debts. The Fed was directed by the White House to intervene and purchase Treasurys whenever necessary to keep yields below a certain level. As Fed historian Allan Meltzer puts it: “the Federal Reserve’s role was to prevent the market from failing to accept a Treasury issue; in practice that meant it supplied enough reserves to keep interest rates from rising around the time the Treasury sold its offering.”

Into the 1950s, the union between the Fed and the rest of the executive branch was explicit in legislation. During the Korean war, however, the Fed attempted to attain greater independence, and thanks to the end of the war and the return to more sedate levels of federal spending, it appeared to some this might actually be possible. 

Yet, the needs of Cold War spending and new welfare programs quickly brought the true reality into view. 

The Great Inflation and the 1970s 

Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin is known for supposedly “taking away the punch bowl” during times of economic boom in order to tamp down price inflation. That may have been Martin’s preference, but as federal spending accelerated during the 1960s, the Treasury increasingly called upon the Fed to enable larger deficits without allowing Treasury yields to rise. The “guns and butter” policies of the Great Society and the Vietnam War meant the Fed would have to work closely with the Treasury to get the executive branch the deficit funding it wanted. This policy came to be called “coordination.” As Meltzer puts it, Martin “agreed that the Federal Reserve should assist in financing the deficit because Congress approved it. Thus, he accepted ‘coordination.’” By 1974, though, a debate remained as to how much the Fed should do this. Or, as stated in FOMC minutes from March 1974: “While the Federal Reserve would always accommodate the Treasury up to a point, the charge could be made—and was being made—that the System had accommodated the Treasury to an excessive degree.”

There is no clear position on what constitutes “excessive,” of course. This is decided not by any objective or scientific standard, but simply by the political needs of the regime. 

It was this “coordination,” that led to the Great Inflation—by which is meant price inflation—of the late 1960s and the 1970s. As annual federal deficits more than doubled from $10 billion to $25 billion each year in the second half of the decade, the new Fed Chairman Arthur Burns was clearly more than willing to do what it took to ensure that that there was plenty of “coordination” between the Treasury and the Fed in order to achieve political ends. In practice, this meant that the Burns Fed was unwilling to rein in price inflation. As Meltzer sums it up: 

The Great Inflation resulted from policy choices that placed much more weight on maintaining high or full employment than on preventing or reducing inflation. For much of the period, this choice reflected both political pressures and popular opinion expressed in the polls.

The Plaza Accords: Volcker Embraces a Weak Dollar 

By the early 1980s, price inflation itself had become enough of a political problem to force the new Reagan administration to request that the Fed—then led by Paul Volcker—abandon its usual policy of ongoing interventions to suppress borrowing costs for the Treasury. The result was a rapid increase in Treasury yields, but also led to a significant decline in price inflation. 

This turn toward hawkish monetary policy would only last a few years, however. A side effect of this pivot in monetary monetary policy was a stronger dollar—especially relative to the yen—which made American exports more expensive and fueled a larger trade deficit. 

Special interest groups soon began to demand a weaker dollar. Some within the Reagan administration were happy to oblige and Treasury secretary James Baker “recognized and wanted to respond to the political pressures from manufacturers, farmers, and especially members of Congress. Exporting manufacturers complained about the value of the dollar that, they said, made it difficult for them to compete.”5 In the words of economist Brendan Brown, the strong dollar “caused a surge of protectionism.”

So, administration officials began negotiations in 1985—resulting in the so-called Plaza Accord—during which “five finance ministers and central bank governors agreed to attempt an orderly depreciation of the dollar.” This happened on Volcker’s watch, and it should be noted that, in spite of his modern and undeserved reputation as a doctrinaire “hard money” man, Volcker’s acquiescence to the Plaza devaluation was not surprising. As Brown reminds us, Volcker 

had never changed his spots from his days as the devaluation diplomat when he served as under-secretary of the Treasury in the Nixon Administration. … He joined in the new dollar devaluation campaign, easing monetary policy ostensibly in response to the economic slowing but also in effect a key component of the Plaza Accord…

Through it all, the Fed remained ever at the side of the administration, ready to “assist” the Treasury and the administration with coordinated monetary policy. 

After the Global Financial Crisis 

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed’s enthusiastic willingness to coordinate with the Treasury and the Congress has become all the more apparent and undeniable. Deficits mounted and the federal debt rose by more than five trillion dollars from 2008 to 2011. Consequently, the spirit of the 1940s had returned at the Fed as the central bank bought up trillions of dollars of Treasurys—with printed money—to force down federal borrowing costs. The Fed embraced zero-interest rate-policy for an astonishing eight years, and in spite of seemingly endless proclamations of economic strength, the Fed refused to allow the target interest rate to rise. The Fed also refused to sell off substantial portions of the Fed’s portfolio. As with the lead up to the Great Inflation, the Fed had again decided to serve the political needs of the federal government, choosing employment maximization and adopting an arbitrary new “two-percent target” allowing greater political flexibility for incessant price inflation.

Although it had promised to “unwind” its inflationary asset purchases in the several years following the 2008 crisis, the Fed never did so. So, when the 2020 Covid Panic arrived, the Fed needed no change of direction, but only had to accelerate its existing policies. From 2020 to 2022, the Fed bought up an additional three trillion in Treasurys with printed money reflecting its political commitment to facilitate new unprecedented levels of peacetime deficit spending. Even the Fed describes this political arrangement as an echo of earlier wartime political arrangements. According to a 2021 report from the Atlanta Fed, the Fed’s covid policy was similar to that of the Fed’s policies of the Second World War in that it was “a big increase in government debt accommodated by Fed bond purchases under an explicit commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels.” Naturally, federal deficits and debt skyrocketed after 2020 and has never returned to pre-covid levels. 

Given this long history of enabling the federal government’s gargantuan debts and runaway spending, its difficult to see where the legendary “Fed independence” fits into all of this. Rather, an honest look at Fed interventions suggests that the Fed never refuses to facilitate the federal executive branch in implementing its political program. Yet, even today, some more credulous observers still believe that the Fed is fighting the administration in the name of “fiscal responsibility.” These fantasies notwithstanding, the Fed has never done this, and the Fed is not doing it now. It means nothing at all that that Jerome Powell in recent months has made some scornful-sounding remarks about how the Congress needs to get its fiscal house together. What matters is what the Fed does, not what the Fed says. History has shown us that when the Treasury needs help with some new political scheme—such as inflating bond prices or blowing up anew employment bubble—the Fed will give the Treasury what it wants. 

The union representing about 33,000 striking Boeing workers rejected a tentative labor contract on Wednesday night, prolonging the strike that threatens the struggling planemaker’s investment-grade credit rating status. This comes days after Boeing mulled over asset sales and filed a $25 billion shelf registration amid dwindling cash reserves. Hours earlier on Wednesday, Boeing reported a net loss of $6.17 billion for the third quarter.

*STRIKING BOEING WORKERS REJECT TENTATIVE DEAL, UNION SAYS pic.twitter.com/LrVZLx2hW2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2024

About 64% of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union members rejected the new tentative agreement, which would’ve given them a 35% wage boost over a new four-year contract. 

“We remain on strike,” IAM District 751 President Jon Holden said moments after the vote, adding, “Our members deserve more and have spoken loudly.”

BREAKING: THE STRIKE WILL CONTINUE! @Boeing machinists REJECT deal that would’ve given them 35% pay raises over the next 4 years also provided $7k in signing bonuses. Vote was 64% to reject deal pic.twitter.com/SspVgn6O2n

— Ryan Simms (@RyanTVnews) October 24, 2024

Boeing shares in New York fell 2.5% in premarket trading. For the year, shares are down about 40%, on course for the worst annual decline since 2008. 

Boeing’s latest contract offer increased from 25%. IAM workers are pressing the struggling planemaker to reinstate a defined-benefit pension plan. 

Holden said, “The loss of the pension is still right at the heart of this for many union members,” adding, “We’re going to put all cards on the table” to see what Boeing can offer instead of the pension plan. 

S&P Global Ratings recently noted that the strike costs Boeing about $1 billion a month. The failed vote extends the five-week strike that has halted commercial jet production across Seattle. 

Also on Wednesday, Boeing reported a third-quarter net loss of $6.17 billion, bringing total losses in 2024 to a stunning $8 billion. Earlier this month, Boeing announced plans to shed its workforce by 10%, or about 17,000 jobs. It also disclosed in a filing about plans to raise $25 billion by selling debt or stock over the next three years.

Earlier, new CEO Kelly Ortberg told CNBC, “My focus is getting everybody looking forward, get them back to work, improve that relationship.” 

Here’s our latest coverage on Boeing:

• Another Catastrophic Quarter From Boeing

• Boeing Desperate For Liquidity, Files $25 Billion Shelf Registration

• Boeing Slashes 10% Of Workforce, CEO Warns “Hard To Overstate The Challenges We Face”

• Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint

Boeing worker Charles Fromong told Bloomberg:“The strike is just a byproduct of Boeing not paying people what they are worth.”

Goldman analysts reveal that Walmart continues to lead retailers in offering consumers the most competitive grocery prices, while Whole Foods remains the most expensive option. The report also includes updates on holiday meal promotions at retailers and consumer insights from data firm HundredX. 

The analysts were led by Leah Jordan and Kate McShane, who reviewed 38 SKUs in dairy, frozen goods, dry grocery, HPC, and produce categories at major retailers, including Kroger, Albertsons (under its banner Randalls), Walmart, Sprouts Farmers Market, Whole Foods, and Dollar General. 

They found Walmart had the lowest prices:

As shown in Exhibit 1, WMT had the lowest prices at -14.0% vs. the group average (widened from -12.2% last month), followed by DG at -4.5% (vs -7.8% last month). WFM had the highest prices in the group at +10.1%, followed by ACI at +9.3%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 37, followed by WMT and ACI at 36.

… and the lowest prices across all categories: 

Looking by category (Exhibit 2), WMT had the lowest prices in dairy products (-18.1%), frozen foods (-14.0%), dry grocery (-11.7%), and produce (-12.2%), while DG had the lowest prices in HPC (-14.8%). On the other hand, WFM had the highest prices in dairy products (+11.3%) and frozen foods (+19.0%), while ACI had the highest prices in dry grocery (+9.1%), HPC (+6.1%), and produce (+10.8%).

Latest holiday meal deal promotions by retailers…

Analysts noted, “Consumer survey data from HundredX revealed the strongest net purchasing intent for large regional grocers, clubs, hard discounters, and specialty grocers across our selection of food retailers, while dollar stores and conventional grocers tracked on the lower end.”

In a separate but recent note, UBS analyst Michael Lasser said Dollar General and Dollar Tree faced “existential uncertainties” as cash-strapped consumers dialed back spending and shifted to Walmart.

In other words, struggling consumers in an era of failed Bidenomics are just gravitating to the deals. 

Folks are financially stretched thin.

We cited Goldman in mid-June…

Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Finds Top Supermarket Offering The Best Grocery Deals https://t.co/0WSTOWex5J

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 15, 2024

In May, Walmart’s earnings call showed that even higher-income consumers traded down to the mega-retailer to find deals. 

A more recent note by Goldman analysts found the “trade-down phenomenon” has occurred across “high-end and low-end consumers.” 

The last time “trading down” mentions spiked on earnings calls, it was GFC.

Bidenomics has transformed American households into a nation of Walmart customers …

Would you have done something differently during the past 4 years? KAMALA HARRIS SAYS THERE IS NOT A THING THAT COMES TO MIND.

FOUR YEARS OF BIDENS FAILURES AND SHE HAS BEEN A PART OF THOSE DECISIONS OF IMPACT.

KAMALA IS A TOTAL FAILURE

VOTE TRUMP TO SAVE AMERICA 🇺🇲 pic.twitter.com/ygEAvciI3t

— 5DME81 (@5dme81) October 10, 2024

… yet another indication that the standard of living in the West has imploded amid reckless Bidenomics spending, sparking the inflation storm. 

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The sister of slain soldier Vanessa Guillén slammed The Atlantic after it used anonymous sources to allege that President Donald Trump disparaged her after discovering the funeral expenses. 

Guillén’s death at the hands of a fellow soldier and his girlfriend became national news in 2020, with Trump comforting the grief-stricken family and extending death benefits. He also offered to cover the costs personally if the Army did not pay for the funeral expenses. 

The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, however, attempted to rewrite history on Tuesday, claiming that Trump was outraged when he learned that Guillén’s funeral, which included heightened security and closed streets, cost $60,000. 

According to the magazine—relying on an anonymous source—Trump allegedly said, “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!” and ordered then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to deny payment. 

Guillén’s sister, Mayra, issued a viral statement on X, condemning The Atlantic’s distorted portrayal of her experience with Trump. 

“I don’t appreciate how you are exploiting my sister’s death for politics- hurtful & disrespectful to the important changes she made for service members,” Mayra wrote on X, garnering over 3 million views. 

“President Donald Trump did nothing but show respect to my family & Vanessa. In fact, I voted for President Trump today,” Mayra added.

Wow.
I don’t appreciate how you are exploiting my sister’s death for politics- hurtful & disrespectful to the important changes she made for service members. President Donald Trump did nothing but show respect to my family & Vanessa. In fact, I voted for President Trump today. https://t.co/o8cDrKOKBV

— Mayra Guillen (@mguilen_) October 22, 2024

FOREVER 20
Happy heavenly birthday sister. You’d be 25 years old today. Time has passed by so unexpectedly, it feels like it was just yesterday that we were having breakfast….you now have a legacy that we have to fulfill in your honor. I love you & miss you very much sister. ❤️‍🩹 pic.twitter.com/sbVgIWvQXh

— Mayra Guillen (@mguilen_) September 30, 2024

In another post, Mayra emphasized that her sister’s death should never be politicized. 

“Unbelievable,” she continued. 

The denials did not stop there as Meadows took to X, refuting the allegations. 

“Any suggestion that President Trump disparaged Ms. Guillen or refused to pay for her funeral expenses is absolutely false,” Meadows wrote.

“He was nothing but kind, gracious, and wanted to make sure that the military and the U.S. government did right by Vanessa Guillen and her family.”

I was in the discussions featured in the Atlantic’s latest hit piece against President Trump. Let me say this.

Any suggestion that President Trump disparaged Ms. Guillen or refused to pay for her funeral expenses is absolutely false.

He was nothing but kind, gracious, and…

— Mark Meadows (@MarkMeadows) October 22, 2024

Meadows’s spokesperson, Ben Williamson, explicitly denied that Trump ever made the remarks in comments provided before publication.

The Atlantic omitted these comments, claiming that Williamson denied ever hearing such remarks.

On the left: I sent Atlantic a comment saying President Trump “absolutely did not say that,” referring to the alleged comments about Ms. Guillen they printed.

On the right: Atlantic translated that comment to “didn’t hear Trump say it.”

Treat this dishonest piece accordingly. pic.twitter.com/pM1o1c9fEm

— Ben Williamson (@_WilliamsonBen) October 22, 2024

This marked the second instance of The Atlantic publishing demonstrably false claims against Trump.

The magazine previously claimed that Trump refused to visit a veteran cemetery because he allegedly called fallen soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” 

It was later revealed that the cemetery trip was canceled due to poor weather, which required Trump to travel by helicopter. 

Authored by Joseph Lord, Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

While most national attention is on the top-of-the-ticket race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, control of Congress will be equally consequential.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of eight seats in the House, meaning they can only spare three defections on big votes. Democrats, with four independents, hold a one-seat majority in the Senate and the tie-breaking vote.

While Republicans are favored to reclaim the Senate, the fate of the House remains more uncertain.

Whoever is president will need full control of Congress to get much done during their term.

House Republicans seek to grow their thin, ideologically divided majority and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has indicated his intention to seek reelection as speaker.

Democrats are seeking to reclaim the majority, which they controlled from 2019 to 2023, and to place House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in the speaker’s chair.

Of the 435 House races, there are around two dozen that are expected to ultimately determine control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress.

Each race listed here is rated by the Cook Political Report as a “toss-up,” making these races among the hardest to predict.

New York

Republican control of the House is largely due to the party’s victories in New York in 2022, when several Republicans won districts that had voted for candidate Joe Biden just two years prior.

While the expected red wave didn’t fully materialize nationwide, there was a notable Republican surge in New York.

The most surprising win was Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-N.Y.) defeat of incumbent Rep. Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the then-chair of the Democrats’ House campaign arm.

Lawler, whose district lies just north of New York City, won by a 0.6 percent margin in an upset that shocked even bullish Republicans.

This year, Lawler is leading his Democratic opponent, Mondaire Jones, by just one point, an Oct. 3 Emerson College poll shows.

Meanwhile, Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.)—both of whom represent Biden-voting districts—are also seeking to hold onto their closely contested seats.

Molinaro won by just around a 1.6 percent margin, while D’Esposito enjoyed a more comfortable 3.6 percent.

Current polling results for both candidates lie in the margin of error: the most recent polling of each race has each trailing the Democrat candidate by three points.

However, other polling showed D’Esposito in a stronger position, leading earlier polling by six points.

Although the results in 2022 suggested New York could be trending Republican, it remains to be seen if the party can maintain that momentum in 2024.

California

Equally important to Republicans’ narrow reclamation of the House in 2022 was California, where Republicans also made gains in districts outside of the blue strongholds that dot the state’s coast.

Now, several GOP incumbents face tight reelection battles to hold on to those districts.

Five California Republicans—Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel—are in extremely close races. All but one of these districts voted for Biden in 2020, highlighting their competitive nature.

Duarte narrowly won his central California seat in 2022 with 50.2 percent to his Democratic opponent’s 49.8 percent, a difference of just 0.4 percent. Polling this cycle shows them neck and neck, with the latest poll giving the Democrat a 1-point edge.

Valadao, who won by a 3-point margin in 2022, faces a much closer race this time, with recent polling showing the race tied.

Garcia won by 6.4 points last cycle, but polling shows him trailing by two points in his northern Los Angeles district.

Calvert and Steel both won by more than four points in 2022. This time around, Steel is again ahead by four points, while Calvert is tied with his Democratic opponent.

Holding these seats is vital for the Republicans to maintain or grow their House majority in 2024.

Rust Belt

While Republicans may be on the defensive in blue strongholds like New York and California, Democrats are similarly on the defensive in two of this election’s most crucial states: Michigan and Pennsylvania.

At the presidential level, these two states are expected to play a huge role in determining the ultimate victor in the election.

These states, along with Wisconsin, were once known as the “Blue Wall” for their long streak of backing Democrats and formed the backbone of their electoral strategy.

Since Trump, however, Republicans have seen a resurgence in the region as its many white working-class voters move over to the GOP camp.

In both 2016 and 2020, these three states, particularly Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, were decided by razor-thin margins.

In Michigan—generally considered the most liberal of the three—Republicans are vying to flip control of two open seats abandoned by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

While Slotkin won by 5 percent in 2022 and Kildee won by 10 percent, polling shows that the two races are on track to be far more competitive this time.

Republicans lead by four points in Slotkin’s 7th Congressional District, according to polling from early October, and by a single point margin in Kildee’s 8th Congressional District, according to polling from the beginning of August.

Picking up one or both of these seats would represent a major gain for Republicans, who stand to benefit from the loss of the two Democratic incumbents.

Over in Pennsylvania, considered the most consequential swing state this cycle, Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) are seeking to hold their seats.

Wild, representing Allentown and its environs, won by a narrow two-point margin in 2022.

Recent polling suggests she’s on track to hold the seat, with the most recent poll ending Oct. 3 finding a six-point lead for Wild.

Cartwright, meanwhile, won with 51 percent to Republicans’ 48 percent in 2022. Polling this cycle shows a 3.1 percent lead for Cartwright, though low sample sizes in these polls mean the race is still within the margin of error.

Arizona

Arizona, another battleground state, is home to some of the most contested races in the 2024 cycle.

Two Republican incumbents, Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), face tough reelections in districts that narrowly voted for Biden in 2020.

Schweikert won his 1st Congressional District seat in 2022 by less than 1 percent of the vote after the district backed Biden by 1.5 percent in 2020.

Polling shows a slight edge for Democrats, who led by 1 percent in a poll that concluded on Aug. 13, though two earlier polls showed a tie. More recent polling isn’t available.

Ciscomani won his 6th district seat by similarly thin margins in 2022, securing 50 percent to Democrats’ 49 percent. Like Schweikert, his district backed Biden in 2020 by around 1.1 percent.

There’s no recent polling available for Ciscomani’s race.

Retaining the districts is crucial for Republicans to grow their House majority, with both expected to be decided by razor-thin margins in 2024.

Read the rest here…

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The House China panel has called on the State Department and the Pentagon to take stronger action to address “problematic” Chinese research in the Arctic that could be used for both civilian and military applications, saying that these activities may pose significant security risks to the United States and its NATO allies.

The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) outlined its concerns in an Oct. 16. letter addressed to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“In recent years, the PRC has increased its effort to seek access to and exert influence in the Arctic, including expanding dual civil-military research efforts in the region,” Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), chairman and ranking Democrat member of the panel, respectively, wrote in a letter, using the acronym of communist China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

“The Arctic is critical to U.S. national security interests and the defense of our homeland, and we must work with our allies to preserve our defense treaty commitments.”

The lawmakers pointed out that China’s “access to the Arctic for satellite communication ground stations and scientific research greatly expands the operational effectiveness of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and furthers the PRC’s global ambitions.”

The bipartisan panel wants to know, among other things, how the U.S. government evaluates the threats posed by Chinese research involvement in the Arctic, especially “in terms of missile defense, submarine detection, and satellite tracking capabilities.”

The lawmakers requested a response by Nov. 15.

China has teamed up with Russia to expand its military and coast guard presence in the Arctic region, which harbors an estimated 13 percent of the planet’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its undiscovered natural gas reserves, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Earlier this month, China announced that its coast guard vessels had ventured into the Arctic Ocean for the first time, conducting patrols alongside Russian ships in waters where the CCP had long sought to exert its influence.

Despite being 900 miles away from the Arctic Circle, China has declared itself a “near-Arctic” state and has added the “Polar Silk Road” to its Belt and Road Initiative, a multibillion-dollar project aimed at bolstering Beijing’s geopolitical sway by building ports, railways, and other infrastructure worldwide.

China’s Research Stations in NATO Allies

Norway’s Svalbard archipelago is a crucial location for the CCP’s Arctic ambitions, the lawmakers pointed out in the letter.

The first Chinese research station, the Arctic Yellow River Station, was established in Svalbard in 2004. Among the organizations operating at the station is the China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation (CRIRP), a unit of China Electronics Technology Group Corp., which the Pentagon designated as a military-controlled company.

The lawmakers said that some CRIRP projects in Svalbard, as registered at the Norwegian government’s Research in Svalbard portal, could have “significant military uses.”

“CRIRP replicated these projects in its research collocation with PLA units, enhancing the PRC’s military capabilities, particularly in areas such as missile guidance, over-the-horizon radar detection, satellite communications, space object tracking, early warning systems, electronic warfare, submarine detection, and strategic communication and control in polar regions,” LJ Eads, who founded the Data Abyss, an open-source intelligence platform funded by the Pentagon, was quoted as saying in the letter.

In addition to Norway, China also operates research centers in another NATO member state, Iceland.

The China–Iceland Arctic Science Observatory (CIAO) was formally established in 2018, but according to lawmakers, data collection began in 2013, a year after the Polar Research Institute of China and the University of Iceland signed an agreement to establish CIAO.

According to the letter, data collected by CIAO have never been made publicly available despite assurances of open access.

The lawmakers expressed concern that China could use this data to improve the “accuracy of its radar systems that detect submarines, ships, and aircraft across long distances, thereby improving military surveillance and target tracking.”

The letter cited a 2021 research paper, stating that the riometer and antenna system deployed at CIAO “covers a large area in the Denmark Strait.”

Gregory Falco, a professor of systems engineering at Cornell University, told the House panel that this system can monitor the strategic submarine traffic of the U.S. and NATO through the GIUK Gap, the naval choke point encompassing the seas between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK.

Lawmakers also noted that by 2023, the Polar Research Institute of China, a subordinate directly under China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, had poured approximately $5 million into the observatory, covering almost all of its expenses.

“Although some Icelandic stakeholders raised concerns regarding the security implications of the research conducted and planned at CIAO, no formal security review has taken place,” the letter reads. “Icelandic law currently lacks specific provisions for national security-related review in such cases.”

Iceland has no military, and under a 1951 defense treaty, the United States is responsible for the island nation’s defense under the NATO umbrella.

The lawmakers urged Washington to support Iceland in conducting a national security review of research activities carried out by Chinese scientists and to halt any Chinese research used for military purposes on Icelandic territory.

The State Department said it doesn’t comment on congressional correspondence but highlighted the U.S. concerns about the CCP’s growing presence in the Arctic region.

“We have growing concerns about the PRC’s increased activities and presence in the Arctic, including dual-use capable scientific research, which could be used for future military operations,” a department spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email.

“As the PRC engages in the Arctic, we encourage it to uphold international standards of transparency, rule of law, and accountability and to abide by its international legal obligations.”

The Pentagon didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment by publication time.