Marc Andreessen, the billionaire investor who runs the influential Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, warned Impact Theory podcast host Tom Bilyeu that the “AI censorship wars” will likely be the biggest political battle over the next three decades.

TOM BILYEU: What’s your take on censorship? Where are we culturally, and what’s AI’s role going to be in either breaking us free from censorship or using that to really tighten down?

MARC ANDREESSEN: I am classic Gen X. I am 100% pro-free speech. By the way, the First Amendment guarantees that the government, at least in theory, is not supposed to censor us, although that’s been happening a bit lately. But the government also has case law around the First Amendment that defines illegal speech, and there are a bunch of forms of illegal speech, like child porn and incitement to violence—it’s terrorist recruitment, right? So there are carve-outs for that stuff. My philosophy is that U.S. law is actually very good on this, and it isn’t just U.S. law; this has been litigated culturally in the US as well as legally for 250 years, going back to the Bill of Rights. We and our predecessors in the US went through a long process to get to where the First Amendment is. Therefore, I think it represents more than just a law; it’s also a statement of culture and values.

I’ve always been an advocate that the code for internet freedom of speech should basically be the First Amendment with only limited carve-outs for things that are truly dangerous or truly destructive. I don’t want terrorist recruitment any more than anybody else, but should people be able to talk about their politics online without getting censored? 100%—full range of expression, of course. It’s the American way. So I’m 100% on that.

You probably know as much as I do about the last decade, which I’ve seen up close, where things generally went very bad. The internet companies ran into a variety of externally and self-inflicted situations where they ended up being a pervasive censorship machine for a long time. The most dramatic change of that is Twitter before and after Elon bought it. By the way, we’re a proud member of the syndicate that bought it with Elon, and so I’m completely thrilled.

TOM BILYEU: Thank you for your service, by the way. To me, it’s just so much better. I cannot believe that was controversial.

MARC ANDREESSEN: We’re also, by the way, the main outside investor in Substack, which I think has done a spectacular job navigating through this. They’re a small company, so when pressure is brought to bear on a small company, it can really have an impact. But the team there has done a fantastic job navigating to a real freedom of speech position, and as a consequence, Substack now has the full range of views on all kinds of topics in a really good way. So the good news is we have two case studies where this has gone really well. The other ones are more difficult.

Here’s what I would say: I think the internet social media censorship wars were the preamble to the AI censorship wars. I think the AI censorship wars are going to be a thousand times more intense and a thousand times more important. The reason for that is that internet social media is important because it’s what we all say to each other, but AI is going to be, I think, the software layer that controls everything. It’s going to be the software layer that basically tells us everything; it’s going to be the software layer that teaches our kids; it’s going to be the software layer that we talk to every day. And, you know, as I think you know, there’s already AI censorship.

The AI censorship conflict is already underway. The war—the information war around AI—is already underway. By the way, the same people who were pushing so hard for social media censorship have now shifted their focus to AI censorship. A lot of the actual censors themselves, who used to work at companies like Twitter, now work for the AI companies. So there’s been a direct transfer of lessons learned, and now it’s being applied at a larger scale. I think this is going to be a giant fight; I think it’s just starting. I believe it’s possibly the most important political fight in the next 30 years.

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Crypto predictions platform Polymarket is reportedly checking to ensure whales placing big bets on the United States presidential election are based overseas, as US users are banned from the platform.

“Polymarket is in the process of re-checking the details of users of its platform, particularly those making large wagers, to ensure compliance with its rules,” a report from Bloomberg said on Oct. 22, citing a person familiar with the matter.

While Polymarket has systems in place to block US users from its website, concerns have been raised that US residents may be circumventing the blockage via virtual private networks — prompting Polymarket to do more due diligence.

It follows speculation that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds for the November US presidential election in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.

Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently favors Trump (63.7%) over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%).

Live odds of the Polymarket’s US presidential election market. Source: Polymarket

The whereabouts of Polymarket whale “Fredi9999” have attracted considerable attention, as more than $20 million has been placed on Republican outcomes so far.

Trump also leads Harris on competitor prediction platform Kalshi at 60%.

Still, Trump’s lead in the crypto prediction markets isn’t currently reflected in most voter polls, including a Reuters poll with Harris in front at 46% to 43%.

In response to Polymarket media scrutiny, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said Polymarket’s results are accurate and not caused by inorganic manipulation.

“The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump, with the median bet for Harris coming in at $85 compared with Trump’s $58.”

Source: Steve Hanke

Billionaire and Polymarket investor Mark Cuban said most of the bets placed on Polymarket’s US election market are coming from overseas – and as a result, are not a true reflection of eligible voter sentiment.

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Oct. 21.

Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the United States commodities regulator back in January 2022 for offering more than 900 event-based binary options event markets without obtaining registration.

In a different case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission partially lost a lawsuit it filed against Kalshi in September. The court ruled that the commodities regulator had “exceeded its statutory authority” by ordering the US-based entity to suspend its election markets.

In a day when stocks are dumping, having finally noticed the surge in yields, one would have expected today’s 20Y reopening auction (of 19Y, 10M Cusip UD8) to be solid. It wasn’t.

Stopping at a high yield of 4.590%, this was 55bps higher than last month’s 4.039%, the highest yield since May and also tailed the When Issued 4.574% by 1.6bps, the second consecutive tail in a row (if not as bad as last month’s 2.0bps tail).

The bid to cover was a solid 2.59, above last month’s 2.51 and the highest since July 2.78, if below the six-auction average of 2.64.

The internals were also ok, with Indirects taking down 67.9%, up from 65.1% but below the recent average of 72.8%. And with Directs awarded 17.6%, Dealers were left holding 14.5% of the final allotiment.

Overall, this was a mediocre auction, with respectable if hardly stellar internals, and which did nothing to help the relentless selling observed in recent days across the curve as the market finally starts retrading “Trumpflation” now not just a Trump administration, but a Red sweep appear increasingly likely.

For the first time of the war, the Pentagon has assessed that North Korean troops appear to be in Russia. “We are seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops that have, that have gone to… Russia,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters in Rome on Wednesday. “What exactly they’re doing, left to be seen.”

He also noted that “Our analysts… continue to look at this” – in reference to the intelligence community. “If they’re co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” he said of the North Koreans. “It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.” The Ukrainian government has been loudly alleging that North Korean troops are already fighting Ukrainian forces in the east of the country.

The Pentagon chief strongly suggested that this is a sign of growing Russian weakness and manpower problems.

The Washington Post wrote, “Austin said it was unclear what North Korea would get out of the deployment. But he said it suggested significant weaknesses in the military capability of Russia, which has had to tap allies Iran and North Korea for aid in its war against Ukraine.”

“This is an indication that he may be even in more trouble than most people realize,” Austin emphasized in reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This new US ‘confirmation’ marks a reversal of sorts. As recently as the start of this week the Pentagon refused to back Ukrainian and South Korean spy agency claims that some 10,000 North Korean troops are headed into the conflict. 

South Korean intelligence claimed that 1,500 DPRK troops had already been deployed to fight on behalf of Russia. 

“I’ve seen those reports in the media. I can’t confirm those reports at this point in time. This is something that we will certainly continue to investigate,” Austin said Sunday.

President Zelensky has been pushing the idea that the ‘enemies’ of the West have formed an axis to fight in Ukraine and ultimately push back NATO. He’s identified them as Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

He’s touted this curiously alongside desperate pleas for more urgent funding and weaponry from his Western backers. Kiev has especially sought long-range weapons for use inside Russian territory, and is now saying the war has been internationalized against Kiev. 

These reports of North Korean troops in Ukraine are giving fresh impetus to the hawks…

“If you clapped for Orbán two weeks ago, you are now on North Korea’s side.”

My speech on frozen Russian assets.

Ukraine must win. Russia must pay. Orbán must go. pic.twitter.com/BUsDxCt2jc

— Damian Boeselager (@d_boeselager) October 22, 2024

Some video clips of unknown context, origin or location have circulated online in the past days, purporting to show North Korean troops being outfitted by Russia’s military before deploying in Ukraine.

Pundits have described one circulating video as showing a base in Russia’s eastern Primorye region, which shares a small border with North Korea, incredibly far away from front lines in Ukraine.

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

Former presidential candidate and congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party two years ago, announced Tuesday that she’s joining the Republican Party because of her love for America and former President Donald Trump’s leadership.

Gabbard made the surprise announcement during a speech at Trump’s rally in Greensboro, North Carolina.

“It is because of my love for our country, and specifically because of the leadership that President Trump has brought to transform the Republican Party and bring it back to the party of the people and the party of peace, that I’m proud to stand here with you today, President Trump, and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party,” Gabbard said.

Moments prior to revealing her decision, Gabbard explained her reasoning.

She said that the Republican Party was welcoming to “independent-minded people” who are committed to the U.S. Constitution and to freedom, such as herself.

“I am joining the party of the people, the party of equality, the party that was founded to fight against and end slavery in this country. It is the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace,” said Gabbard, who serves in the U.S. Army Reserves.

She noted that Trump has “pledged to end wars, not start them.”

Gabbard served as a member of Congress from 2013 through 2021, representing Hawaii’s second district as a Democrat.

While countless Wall Street banks try to one-up each other with ridiculous guesstimates on how many more new iPhones Apple’s still to be released AI Siri will sell, not based on any fact-based evidence but on goalseeking “vibes” to justify their ridiculous price targets, one independent analyst has demonstrated a proven track record of being accurate time and again, and as such his calls have an outlier impact on the stock.

We are talking about TF International Securities’ Apple-watcher Ming-Chi Kuo, and the reason why AAPL just dumped to session lows is because according to Kuo, iPhone 16 orders were cut by around 10 million units for 4Q24–1H25, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models. As a result, iPhone 16 production for 2H24 is now estimated at 84 million units (down from around 88 million previously).

Following these cuts, total iPhone production for 4Q24, 1Q25, and 2Q25 is now forecast at around 80 million, 45 million, and 39 million units, respectively, all down YoY (vs. around 84 million, 48 million, and 41 million in 4Q23, 1Q24 and 2Q24, respectively).

Separately, iPhone SE4 mass production will start in December 2024, with projected production of around 8.6 million units from December 2024 to 1Q25.

Here is Kuo analysis and conclusions:

• Apple’s iPhone revenue in 4Q24 may not fully reflect the impact of production cuts, as the gap between production and sell-through in 4Q23 was larger than in 4Q24, and the product mix in 4Q24 is more favorable (with increased production of the Pro Max model for Sep-Oct). However, iPhone revenues are expected to come under pressure in 1H25 due to a YoY shipment decline and a less favorable product mix due to the launch of SE4.
• Most iPhone suppliers are expected to experience pressure from late 4Q24, with a more significant impact in 1H25.
• Some market participants are optimistic that Apple Intelligence could dramatically boost iPhone shipments soon. However, Apple’s recent order cuts suggest this optimistic expectation may not materialize in the short term. I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service. However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.

The reaction in the stock price was immediate, and it is hitting both the Nasdaq and the broader market, especially with Nvidia also dumping today.

After two days of gains, oil prices roller coastered overnight with WTI testing down to $70 before bouncing back up to $71.50 ahead of this morning’s official inventory and supply data. API reported a mixed bag last night as we are sure the impact of the Hurricanes is still rippling through this data.

API

• Crude +1.64mm (+800k exp)

• Cushing -216k

• Gasoline -2.02mm (-1.3mm exp)

• Distillates -1.48mm (-1.6mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +5.47mm (+800k exp)

• Cushing -346k

• Gasoline +878k (-1.3mm exp)

• Distillates -1.14mm (-1.6mm exp)

Crude stocks soared by 5.5mm barrels last week (well above expectations), Gasoline stocks unexpectedly built as gasoline inventories dropped for the 5th straight week…

Source: Bloomberg

Including the 760k barrels added to the SPR, this is the biggest weekly build since April…

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed total crude stocks up to their highest since August…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains at record highs (13.5mm b/d)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI dipped off rebound highs after the official data…

“As concerns about Iran oil supply have eased, market focus is shifting back to the risks of oversupply in 2025,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note.

“Downside price risks from high spare capacity and potentially broader trade tariffs outweigh upside price risk from geopolitical supply disruptions.”

A state Turkish aerospace and defense company in Ankara has come under apparent attack on Wednesday, with a large explosion followed by gunfire heard at a complex in the country’s capital.

The site has been identified as the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) facility in Kazan district. Turkish broadcasters have said the attack may have started with a suicide bomber. 

Security forces quickly engaged one or more other attackers at the scene, and a gun battle ensued.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya in an initial statement has assessed that their are dead and wounded at the scene, amid a heavy emergency response. 

“A terrorist attack was carried out against the Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc. (TAI) Ankara Kahramankazan facilities,” he said in a statement.

“We have martyrs and injured people,” he said. A chaotic emergency response situation is unfolding.

Turkey’s Daily Sabah writes:

Unconfirmed reports said it may have been a suicide bomber.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya confirmed the blast heard outside the premises was a terrorist attack but did not specify and said further statements would follow.

Security forces, ambulances and firefighters were dispatched to the TAI campus, which employs over 15,000 people.

🚨🇹🇷EXPLOSION AND GUNFIRE ROCK TURKISH AEROSPACE HQ IN ANKARA

An explosion followed by gunfire erupted outside the Turkish aerospace headquarters in Ankara, sparking immediate chaos and panic.

No further details have been released regarding casualties or the motive behind the… pic.twitter.com/ZHPZ00FvnG

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2024

Employees at the company which is located in the outskirts of Ankara fled and sought shelter, and have reportedly been evacuated to a safe area.

Hurriyet Daily describes of the company:

TAI is a key player in Türkiye’s aerospace industry, designing, developing, and manufacturing various air platforms. The company also produces parts for international projects, including components for the Airbus A380 passenger jet and the A400M military transport aircraft.

Shots could be heard ringing out near the parking lot soon after the blast…

#BREAKING #Turkey JUST IN: Terrorist Attack in Ankara: Multiple Casualties Reported at Aviation Company Headquarters

Turkey’s Interior Minister has confirmed that several individuals have died and many more have been injured in what officials are describing as a “terrorist… pic.twitter.com/IykKJ3zSDq

— The National Independent (@NationalIndNews) October 23, 2024

Authorities have not named any of the perpetrators or potential groups involved in the attack. ISIS has long been active in the region, as have various al-Qaeda groups in relation to the war in Syria. Turkey has also been engaged in a decades-long conflict with the Kurdish PKK, which the state considers to be a terrorist organization.

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor’s suggestion that crypto users should use big banks to custody Bitcoin is “batshit insane,” Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said, adding to a growing backlash from the crypto community. 

“I’ll happily say that I think Saylor’s comments are batshit insane,” said Buterin in response to an Oct. 22 post on X from Bitcoin custody firm Casa’s chief security officer and cypherpunk Jameson Lopp, who was extolling the virtues of self-custody. 

It’s the latest criticism aimed at MicroStrategy’s Saylor after he suggested on Oct. 21 that Bitcoin holders should rely on “too big to fail” banks that are “engineered to be custodians of financial assets” – an apparent U-turn on his previous comments about self-custody. 

Source: Vitalik Buterin 

Buterin said Saylor appeared to be “explicitly arguing for a regulatory capture approach to protecting crypto,” such as investment managers BlackRock and Fidelity holding the asset with “all the lawmakers and law enforcement arms invested in those entities.”  

“There’s plenty of precedent for how this strategy can fail, and for me, it’s not what crypto is about.”

Saylor also called out “crypto-anarchists” during the interview with financial markets reporter Madison Reidy, warning that non-regulated entities that don’t acknowledge government, taxes or reporting requirements will increase the risk of the asset’s seizure. 

Criticism of Saylor’s comments has been mounting since.

Lopp argued that self-custody is important to individual Bitcoin holders, and that “It’s important for the continued strengthening and improvement of the entire network.”

On Oct. 22, ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees added to the rebuttal, saying that the ability to withdraw Bitcoin into self-custody is the “check that prevents the centralization and corruption inevitable under any other arrangement,” before adding: 

“For Saylor to so casually dismiss this fundamental precept is wholly inappropriate and deserves the backlash.”

In an interview with Blockware head analyst Joe Burnett back in 2022, Saylor gave several examples of why he thought crypto should be custodied by large centralized intermediaries. 

“This was three weeks after FTX imploded and users lost BTC left on the platform,” the Blockware team noted in a post on X on Oct. 22.

Existing home sales disappointed (yet again) in September, declining 1.0% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise). August’s 2.5% MoM drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM drop, but still left existing home sales down 3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total sales SAAR dropped to 3.84mm, the lowest since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the weaker September sales figures, “factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in his ubiquitously optimistic statement.

“There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy.”

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low.

Some 1.39 million homes were for sale in September, up 23% from a year earlier, the NAR report showed. The supply of homes still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

At the current sales pace, available inventory would last 4.3 months, the longest in more than four years.

The median sales price rose 3% in September from a year ago to $404,500.

Around the country, previously owned home sales dropped in three of four regions, including a 1.7% decline in the South to the slowest pace since the start of 2012.

Closings fell 2.2% in the Midwest to a 13-year low, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Sales rose 4.1% in the West, driven by California and Arizona.

While the short-term (lagged) may bring an improvement in existing home sales (based on the lagged impact of declining mortgage rates), as the chart below shows, since The Fed unleashed its rate0cutting cycle, mortgage rates have risen aggressively once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…not a good sign for the housing market’s affordability.

However, inventory problems could persist since “84 percent of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, so the number of sellers that would be financially incentivized to sell would remain limited,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp. said in the report.