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Bank of Canada Slashes Rates For 4th Straight Month In Biggest Rate Cut Since Covid

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Bank of Canada Slashes Rates For 4th Straight Month In Biggest Rate Cut Since Covid

In keeping up with the global easing frenzy, and also in keeping with its promises from last month when it said to “expects further cuts”, moments ago the Bank of Canada – home of what may be the world’s biggest housing bubble – stepped up the pace of interest-rate cuts and signaled that the post-pandemic era of high inflation is over when the central bank cut the benchmark overnight rate to 3.75% on Wednesday, the biggest reduction in borrowing costs since March 2020 during the early days of the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada started easing borrowing costs with a quarter percentage-point reduction in June. It cut again by 25 basis points at each meeting in July and September. The next and final rate decision for this year is on Dec. 11, when some economists already project another 50 basis-point cut.

Here is a redline comparison of the BOC’s statement vs last month (courtesy of Newsquawk):

Here are some highlights from the decision:

On Rates:

  • “the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information.”
  • “We will take decisions one meeting at a time”.

CPI:

  • The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2%.
  • With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

Growth:

  • GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates.
  • This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth

The jumbo cut – which was widely expected by markets and economists – aims to boost economic growth and keep inflation close to the 2% target in an economy where headline price pressures slowed to 1.6% in September and are no longer as broad, with inflation expectations now trending closer to normal.

The 50 basis-point cut suggests a new phase of monetary policy easing, where policymakers focus on returning interest rates to more neutral levels — where borrowing costs neither restrict nor stimulate growth — to avoid slowing the economy too much and having inflation undershoot the target.

“All this suggests we are back to low inflation,” BOC governor Tiff Macklem said in his prepared opening remarks. “Now our focus is to maintain low, stable inflation. We need to stick the landing.” The bank now sees upward and downward risks to its inflation projection as “reasonably balanced,” he added “but with inflation back to 2%, we want to see growth strengthen. Today’s interest rate decision should contribute to a pickup in demand.”

Here are some more highlights from his comments:

  • “We also expect growth in residential investment to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations.”
  • “Looking ahead. GDP growth is forecast to gradually strengthen to around 2% in 2025 and 2%% in 2026, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth.”
  • “With stronger demand, the downward pressure on inflation is also forecast to dissipate, keeping the upward and downward forces roughly balanced.”
  • “Going forward, we can expect to continue to see some monthly fluctuations in inflation.”
  • “Overall, we view the risks around our inflation forecast as reasonably balanced. With inflation back to 2%. we are now equally concerned about inflation coming in higher or lower than expected. The economy functions well when inflation is around 2%.”

Hilariously, just like every other central bank, the Bank of Canada’s latest forecasts see policymakers achieving a soft landing, where inflation normalizes without a deep economic downturn. GDP growth, which is expected to be just 1.2% this year, should accelerate next year to just over 2%, while inflation is expected to remain near the midpoint of the 1% to 3% target range, the central bank said. Just like magic.

“We want to see growth strengthen. Today’s interest rate decision should contribute to the pickup in demand,” Macklem said. “We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2% target and we want to keep it close to the target.”

BOC officials said they expect to reduce the policy rate further if the economy evolves in line with their expectations, but they cautioned that the “timing and pace” of future cuts will be based on incoming data.

Before the release, traders in overnight swaps were betting the Bank of Canada would lower its policy rate to about 2.75%, the mid-point of the so-called neutral range, by September 2025.

In the monetary policy report accompanying the rate statement, the bank said headline inflation will remain close to the 2% target through 2026, with core measures of consumer prices easing gradually. The upward inflationary pressures from shelter and services are also forecast to further diminish.

While economic growth in the second quarter was slightly stronger than July’s forecast, the third quarter appears to be weaker, the report said. The bank said the economy continues to be in excess supply — wherein there isn’t enough demand for goods and services being produced — and the labor market is still soft, with population increases exceeding job creation.

Growth is expected to accelerate and average 2.25% over 2025 and 2026. Consumer spending and business investment are forecast to strengthen, supported by interest-rate decreases.

Population growth is also expected to slow due to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s measures to curb the flood of immigrants.

Looking at the market reaction, the USDCAD was virtually unchanged as the decision and commentary were both very much as expected. Money markets now price in 31bps of Dec rate cuts (up from 30bps before the decision) and 60bps by January (up from 58bps).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 10:06

Arm Nukes Qualcomm Chip Design License In 60 Days Ahead Of Court Trial 

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Arm Nukes Qualcomm Chip Design License In 60 Days Ahead Of Court Trial 

UK-based chip architecture giant Arm Holdings is nuking its architectural license agreement with US-based Qualcomm, which certainly escalates an ongoing legal dispute between the two companies. 

Bloomberg obtained a document that specifies Arm has given Qualcomm 60 days to end their so-called architectural license agreement. This agreement has allowed longtime partner Qualcomm to produce chips based on standards owned by the UK company. 

The license cancellation will mean Qualcomm will have to stop selling products based on Arm designs by the end of the year. Bloomberg noted that this could “roil the smartphone and personal computer markets, as well as disrupt the finances and operations of two of the most influential companies in the semiconductor industry.” 

A Qualcomm spokesperson told the media outlet that the British company was trying to “strong-arm a longtime partner.”

It “appears to be an attempt to disrupt the legal process, and its claim for termination is completely baseless,” the spokesperson said via email, adding, “We are confident that Qualcomm’s rights under its agreement with Arm will be affirmed.”

The legal feud began when Qualcomm bought Nuvia in 2021 to boost its Arm-based CPU designs. Arm was furious that it had no say in the deal and canceled Nuvia’s licenses in 2023. Both sides are headed to court in December. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Tamlin Bason and Kunjan Sobhani commented on the legal dispute, noting, “Arm’s move to cancel Qualcomm’s architectural license looks like an effort to gain leverage in advance of the parties’ Dec. 16 trial.” 

BI analysts continued, “Our Thesis: Arm’s suit against Qualcomm likely ends in a negotiated license, granting the chipmaker rights to customize Arm architecture, but at higher royalty rate than Nuvia had been paying.”

In a separate note, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee told clients that the license cancellation is a significant escalation between the two firms. He said, “An eventual settlement is still the most likely outcome,” adding, The cancellation and 60-day notice appears to be a negotiating tactic to put further pressure on Qualcomm to find a solution sooner.”

“The timing of the cancellation notice suggests to us an attempt to force a pre-trial settlement,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note. Based on previous Qualcomm lawsuits, she said, “note that they do tend to typically settle prior to seeing the inside of a courtroom.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 07:45

Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes

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Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns. His research has highlighted that certain periods of the year consistently present better opportunities for investors to generate returns, while other times warrant caution.

The adage ” Sell May and Go Away “ is a common topic of discussion that many investors are familiar with. The historical analysis supports that the market tends to be the weakest of the year during the summer months. Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac introduced the idea that the stock market follows a seasonal rhythm, where certain times of the year offer greater return potential. This work has helped investors identify key windows where market performance historically improves, allowing them to align their strategies accordingly.

  • “Sell in May and Go Away”: One of the most famous adages in market seasonality, this concept reflects the tendency for stocks to underperform during the summer months, roughly from May through October. Investors are often advised to exit or reduce exposure during this time to avoid potential downside risk.

  • The Best Six Months: Conversely, the period from November through April has been historically stronger for stocks, with higher average returns. This seasonal trend is based on data showing that a significant portion of stock market gains often occur during this half of the year.

The Math

The chart below shows that $10,000 invested in the market from November to April has significantly outperformed the amount invested from May through October.

Interestingly, the max drawdowns are significantly larger during the “Sell In May” periods. Previous important dates of major market declines occurred in October 1929, 1987, and 2008.

However, not every summer works out poorly. Historically, there have been many periods when “Sell In May” did not work, and markets rose. 2020 and 2021 were examples of massive Federal Reserve interventions that pushed prices higher in April and subsequent summer months. However, 2022 was the opposite, as April declined sharply as the Fed began an aggressive interest rate hiking campaign the preceding month.

Technical analysis, however, can improve outcomes.

The Role of the MACD in Seasonal Investing

While the seasonal trends provide a useful framework, Hirsch’s research goes further by applying technical indicators like the MACD to refine entry and exit points. The seasonal MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) signal, in particular, serves as a trigger that confirms when it’s the right time to re-enter the market after the weaker summer period.

The MACD is a momentum-based indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price—typically the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). When the shorter-term EMA crosses above the longer-term EMA, it generates a buy signal, indicating the potential start of an uptrend. In seasonal investing, this technical indicator is combined with Hirsch’s seasonal trends to offer more precision in market timing.

  • Seasonal MACD Buy Signal: This signal typically triggers near the end of October or early November, aligning with the start of the “Best Six Months” period. It confirms that market momentum is shifting upward and is a favorable time to re-enter the market.

  • Seasonal MACD Sell Signal: Similarly, at the end of the “Best Six Months” (usually in late April or early May), the MACD sell signal indicates weakening momentum, suggesting it may be time to reduce equity exposure.

On Friday, October 11, 2024, the S&P 500 index triggered its seasonal MACD buy signal, marking the beginning of what has historically been a seasonally strong period for the stock market. This signal arrives just before November, reinforcing Hirsch’s findings that the months ahead tend to deliver better returns.

3-Market Supports For Seasonality

In 2024, three primary drivers will likely support markets from the middle of October through year-end and likely into early 2025.

Earnings

The first is earnings season, which has proved normal so far, although this week and next will be very important in corporate outlooks. As discussed in the latest BullBearReport, analysts significantly lowered the “earnings bar” heading into the reporting season. As noted in “Trojan Horses,” analysts are always wrong, and by a large degree.

“This is why we call it ‘Millennial Earnings Season.’ Wall Street continuously lowers estimates as the reporting period approaches so ‘everyone gets a trophy.’” 

The chart below shows the changes for the Q3 earnings period from when analysts provided their first estimates in March 2023. Analysts have slashed estimates over the last 30 days, dropping estimates by roughly $3.40/share, but nearly $18 lower than their initial estimate.

Of course, lowering the bar will generate a high “beat rate” by companies, which will help fuel stock prices in the short term.

Performance Chasing

Secondly, according to Morningstar, during the first half of 2024, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual and exchange-traded funds outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500 index. There are several reasons for this, including the lack of allocation to the “Magnificent 7,” dispersion in returns of holdings, and lack of allocation to non-traditional assets.

This underperformance occurs during the best presidential election year in roughly 90 years, which will pressure fund managers to play “catch up” with performance moving into year-end reporting. Given the “career risk” to managers of significant underperformance, additional buying pressure could manifest.

Corporate Share Buybacks

Lastly, corporate share buyback windows will reopen in November and December as companies exit their earnings “blackout period.” Notably, the last two months of the year represent the best two-month period for corporate executions as companies rush to complete buybacks for the current tax year. With nearly $1 Trillion in authorizations for 2024, the pace of buybacks will be exceptionally strong this year.

As noted by Goldman Sachs:

“The VWAP machines will be lining up to buy $6bn worth of equities daily during November and December.”

Yes, that is $6 billion each trading day, which provides sufficient buying power to lift asset prices into year-end.

Seasonality: Not A Risk-Free Adventure

For investors, this seasonality signal could be an opportunity to increase exposure to equities, particularly in large-cap stocks that tend to drive the broader market. However, it’s essential to recognize that while the MACD signal aligns with historical trends, it does not guarantee future performance.

Despite the historical reliability of seasonality and the MACD buy signal, investors must still be aware of risks.

  • Monetary Policy: Inflation, interest rates, and global economic uncertainty could weigh on stock performance, even during a seasonally strong period. Given the recent bout of strong data, if the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts, this could disappoint markets. A good example is 2018, where the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance preceded a 20% correction in November and December.

  • Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, whether in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, or relations between major economic powers, can quickly disrupt financial markets. Unexpected events, such as escalating conflicts or trade wars, could derail the seasonal trends.

  • Market Volatility: Volatility can spike unexpectedly, leading to sharp market corrections. Even during strong periods like the “Best Six Months,” short-term market corrections are always possible. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility, especially if other risk factors, like earnings surprises or economic data, create uncertainty.

  • Historical Trends Are Not Guarantees: Past performance, while instructive, does not guarantee future results. Although the MACD buy signal has been a reliable indicator in the past, external factors could reduce its predictive power. Investors must be cautious and not rely solely on seasonality and technical signals.

Most crucially, the technical backdrop also poses near-term risks. The market has been up six weeks in a row, which historically is a very long stretch without a correction.

From a purely technical view, with the markets deviating well above MONTHLY moving averages and overbought, a correction or consolidation is becoming increasingly likely before the year-end advance can take shape.

Navigating Into Year-End

With the S&P 500 now in a seasonally strong period, bolstered by the weekly MACD buy signal, investors may want to consider several strategies:

  1. Increase Equity Exposure: Large-cap stocks historically perform well during this period. You could consider increasing exposure to diversified index funds or sector ETFs that align with historical trends.

  2. Review Portfolio Risk: While the MACD buy signal is a positive indicator, you should assess your portfolio’s risk tolerance and ensure it aligns with your long-term goals.

  3. Rebalance Allocations: Now may be a good time to rebalance by reducing positions in riskier assets or diversifying across asset classes.

  4. Use Stop-Loss Orders: To manage downside risk, consider using stop-loss orders.

Yale Hirsch’s research on market seasonality, paired with the power of the MACD signal, offers a disciplined approach to navigating historical market trends. The recent MACD buy signal for the S&P 500 provides investors with a potentially advantageous entry point into the market as we head into the historically strong “Best Six Months” period. However, it’s crucial to remain aware of the risks, including macroeconomic headwinds and market volatility.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 07:20

Restaurant Bankruptcies Piling Up, TGI Fridays May Be Next

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Restaurant Bankruptcies Piling Up, TGI Fridays May Be Next

Restaurant bankruptcy filings have been ticking higher this year as budget-conscious consumers cut back on eating out, and many eateries struggle with high debt loads in a toxic environment of high interest rates. TGI Fridays is the latest casual dining chain preparing a bankruptcy filing.

People knowledgeable of TGI Friday’s bankruptcy plans told Bloomberg that the US casual dining restaurant chain, with 600 locations in 55 countries, including 233 in the US, will file for bankruptcy protection in the coming weeks. 

TGI Fridays executives have been in multiple discussions with lenders searching for a loan to ensure operations run smoothly through the Chapter 11 process, the people said, who asked not to be named in the report. 

The people said Ropes & Gray LLP lawyers are advising TGI Fridays on bankruptcy preparations but noted plans have not yet been finalized. 

Bloomberg pointed out:

The chain’s obligations include asset-backed securities, which were the source of some drama last month after the company’s management breached their terms by failing to file documents to bondholders on time. As a result of that breach, they had to turn over control of some assets to an outside manager.

Credit rating agency KBRA recently reported that the chain lost control of much of its business functions through a manager termination event because of TGI Fridays’ “failure to furnish a report of the independent auditors or back-up manager summarizing the findings of certain agreed-upon procedures within a certain time period.”

Add TGI Fridays to the list of restaurant bankruptcies piling up this year as the space becomes extremely challenging in a period of thrifty consumers: 

  • Red Lobster Management

  • Rubio’s Restaurants

  • Melt Bar & Grilled

  • Kuma Holdings

  • Tijuana Flats

  • Sticky’s Finger Joint

  • Boxer Ramen

CRE news website Bisnow added more color on the restaurant downturn: 

Going back decades, this year is set to come second to only 2020 for the number of restaurant chains and operators declaring bankruptcy, according to BankruptcyData.com records reported by the WSJ. Traditional chain restaurants like Red Lobster and Buca di Beppo have had to resort to a court-facilitated restructuring, but so have fast-casual chains Roti, Tijuana Flats and fast-casual taco chain Rubio’s.

Same-store sales traffic at US restaurants was down 3.3% year-over-year this month, according to Black Box Intelligence, and casual dining restaurants saw visits fall 4.5%.

Other headlines in the space:

Yet corporate media and the White House say the US economy is humming along and nothing to worry about with consumers. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 06:55

Germany Is The EU’s Censorship Champion

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Germany Is The EU’s Censorship Champion

Authored by Robert Kogon via The Brownstone Institute,

Note that X, rebranded as a “free speech platform,” provides information on platform users to the governments of EU member states in connection with not just illegal speech – and, yes, national legislation in EU countries includes many “speech crimes” – but also legal speech that is deemed “harmful.” 

This is the real innovation involved in the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA): It creates an obligation for platforms to take action in the form of “content moderation” against not just illegal content, but also ostensibly harmful content such as “disinformation.” Note that in the period covered in X’s latest “Transparency Report” to the EU on its “content moderation” efforts, nearly 90% of such requests for information on the purveyors of ostensibly “illegal or harmful speech” came from just one country: Germany. See the below chart.

Note that X also takes action against posts or accounts for “illegal or harmful speech” that is reported to it by EU member states or the European Commission. Such action may involve deletion or geo-blocking (“withholding”) of content. But, as the “enforcement options” linked in the report make clear, it can also involve various forms of “visibility filtering” or restricting engagement — “in accordance with our Freedom of Speech, Not Reach enforcement philosophy,” as the report puts it.

Here again, Germany is top of the table, having submitted 42% of all the reports to X on “illegal or harmful speech” and nearly 50% of the reports from member states. See the chart below. Germany submitted nearly twice as many reports as any other member state — France finished a distant second — and over ten times more reports than comparably-sized Italy. The European Commission submitted around 15% of the reports.

It is also notable that Germany submitted by far the most reports on content entailing “negative effects on civic discourse or elections,” yet another category of speech that is clearly not illegal per se but that is deemed “harmful” enough under the DSA regime to require suppression. (Hence, while the content is not per se illegal, it would be illegal for platforms under the DSA not to suppress it. This ambiguity is at the very heart of the DSA censorship regime.) Germany submitted well over half of all such reports and over 60% of the reports from member states.

Finally, it is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of these reports and the related “enforcement actions” undoubtedly involve English-language content. This can be gleaned from the fact that nearly 90% of X’s “content moderation team” consists of English speakers. The “primary language” of 1,535 of the team’s 1,726 members is English, as can be seen in the below chart.

But why should Germany or the EU be accorded any jurisdiction over English-language discourse? Needless to say, Germans are not as a rule native English speakers and only 1.5% of the total EU population has English as their mother tongue.

In any case, two things are very clear from X’s “Transparency Report.” One is that Elon Musk’s “free speech platform” is not that and is in fact devoting enormous resources, both in terms of “trained” human censors and programming, to complying with the EU’s censorship regime. And the other is that Germany is the EU’s — and hence undoubtedly the world’s — undisputed, online censorship champion.

There were 226,350 “enforcement actions” taken by X in response to reports from EU member states or the EU Commission in the reporting period covering barely more than three months. This is to say nothing of the “enforcement actions” taken proactively by X in accordance with its own DSA-compatible terms of service and rules.

Lest readers have trouble reconciling the foregoing with the viral kerfuffle between Elon Musk and Thierry Breton and the famous “proceedings” against X that were initiated under Breton’s leadership, please see Jordi Calvet-Bademunt’s helpful account of the “preliminary findings” of the EU Commission’s investigation here. 

According to a new Bloomberg report, EU officials are even contemplating taking into account the revenues of some of Musk’s other companies in calculating a potential fine against him. Needless to say, despite the fact that the sources are unnamed, this has been widely construed as a further escalation in a mammoth free speech struggle between Musk and the EU. 

But as Calvet-Bademunt’s analysis shows, the EU’s case against X, as it now stands, has nothing to do with insufficient “content moderation” — or, in other words, censorship — but merely concerns other, more arcane, aspects of the DSA.

Interestingly, the original proceedings opened against X did indeed involve “content moderation” and — believe it or not – could even have had a positive impact on freedom of speech, since X was ostensibly being investigated not for failing to remove or suppress user content, but rather for failing to inform users about such “content moderation decisions” or, in other words, shadowbanning. But, as Calvet-Bademunt shows, this aspect has been dropped from the investigation.

The fact of the matter, in any case, is that no online platform of any size can remain on the EU market and be a “free speech platform.” The DSA makes this impossible.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 03:30

Watch: Building In Beirut Collapses In Its Own Footprint After Israeli Strike

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Watch: Building In Beirut Collapses In Its Own Footprint After Israeli Strike

A missile fired by an Israeli fighter jet has absolutely obliterated a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburb of Chiyah. The airstrike came amid a series of attacks on the area, shortly after Israel’s military issued warnings and evacuation orders for residents of the building and of the area.

International media correspondents knew the strike was coming, and so were able to set up nearby and capture footage up-close, even including images of the missile flying through the air milliseconds before the strike. The building immediately collapsed in its own footprint.

The projectile may have been a bunker-busting munition, given the way the building collapsed onto itself, to the point of nothing being left.

The last several days have seen IDF warplanes bomb locations said to be sources of Hezbollah financing, including bank branches linked to the Shia organization.

But public hospitals have had their grounds struck as well. Israel’s military has shocked many by proclaiming that Hezbollah hides money or gold beneath the medical facilities which have come under attack.

The UN has said it is “appalled” by an attack on Rafik Hariri University Hospital:

UN rights chief Volker Turk said he was “appalled” by a deadly Israeli strike nearly a southern Beirut hospital yesterday, demanding a “prompt and thorough investigation”.

“I am appalled by the Israeli strike near Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut’s densely populated Jinah neighborhood that reportedly killed at least 18 people, including four children, and wounded 60 others,” Turk said in a statement.

“The fundamental principles of international humanitarian law concerning the protection of civilians must be respected.”

Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed Tuesday at least 18 people were killed in that attack, including four children. Nearly 2,500 Lebanese total have been killed in Israeli attacks since the start of the conflict, both civilians and combatants alike.

Scene of the attack in south Beirut, via AP

The number of wounded from the same attack close to the Rafik Hariri University Hospital is at least 60, the ministry said. A staff member at the hospital, Dr Abu-Sittah, was outraged and had this to say:

“The size of the country is bigger but the tactic and centrality of the strategy are identical. To ethnically cleanse an area you need to dismantle the healthcare system in it. When you look at the south of Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs that’s what they’re doing.”

In northern Israel, Hezbollah has continued sanding many drones on the key port city of Haifa. Alarms have been frequently sounding through the whole area.

The Israeli army has also belatedly confirmed the killing of Hezbollah Hashem Safieddine during a prior airstrike on Beirut earlier this month. He was widely expected to succeed Nasrallah as Secretary-General of Hezbollah.

In Gaza, fierce fighting has return to the north of the Strip. Hamas has issued a statement urging the global community “to stop the crime of forced displacement, ethnic cleansing and massacres” happening in northern Gaza.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently in Israel, seeking to discuss the potential for a ceasefire, but that prospect seems more distant than ever at this point.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 02:45

Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows

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Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The state-run Polish Press Agency recently reported on the publication of the latest survey by the publicly financed Center for Public Opinion Research about Poles’ attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war.

The results might surprise casual observers who hitherto assumed that this population is still gung-ho about both due to their supposedly innate and irredeemable Russophobia. Before diving into the details, the reader should review these three prior analyses on this subject:

* 21 February: “A Top EU Think Tank’s Poll Proved That Polish Views Towards Ukraine Are Noticeably Shifting”

* 27 March: “What Do The Latest Surveys Say About Poles’ Attitudes Towards Ukraine & The Farmers’ Protests?”

* 8 July: “Interpreting A Top EU Think Tank’s Latest Survey On Polish Attitudes Towards Ukraine”

Having shared the evolving statistical context for those who are interested, it’s now time to highlight what the latest survey showed.

Only a little more than half of Poles (53%) support accepting more Ukrainian refugees, while two-thirds (67%) want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males (25-60 years old).

Less than half (46%) support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia, slightly less (39%) want it to give up territory for peace, and a little bit more (44%) believe that this will ultimately happen in any case.

The military-strategic context within which these results were obtained is that Poland confirmed in late August, several weeks before the survey was conducted between 12-22 September, that it had already maxed out its military support for Ukraine.

Mainstream Media outlets like CNN also began sharing glimpses of just how bad everything had become for Ukraine too.

The Volhynia Genocide dispute, which deeply enrages most Poles, returned to the fore of bilateral relations in early September as well.

This confluence of factors served to catalyze the preexisting trends that were discovered by the previously cited surveys and led to the surprising situation where two-thirds of Poles want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males even though less than half support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia.

In other words, they want to send them to their deaths for a cause that they themselves no longer support, which hints at a vindictiveness towards them that’s only now being discussed by top officials.

Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told an interviewer last week that:

“The fact is that our society is very shocked by the sight of young men from Ukraine driving the best cars, spending weekends in five-star hotels. And this is unfair to Poles, who contribute to healthcare, benefits, education, not to mention weapons supplies and other assistance.”

He himself also expressed resentment towards his state-level Ukrainian peers by accusing them of taking Polish aid for granted.

In his words, “We gave Ukraine military equipment worth over 15 billion złoty and we were the first to do so when others were wondering whether they could send anything. If we, as Poland, had not given them all those tanks, planes and other weapons, there would be no one to help today. And I have the feeling that the Ukrainian side does not remember this, is not aware that if it were not for this Polish help, they would not have reached the stage they are at today. This is not right.”

It therefore naturally follows that a growing number of Poles have become fed up with Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war after feeling that their country has been taken advantage of. Poles are a generous people, but they also have enough self-respect to not tolerate ingratitude from those who they help. Ukrainians and their state have spit in Poles’ faces for far too long, which is why most of the latter now want to throw those that have leeched off of them into the Russian meatgrinder as revenge. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/23/2024 – 02:00

The Danger Is Real: The Deep State’s Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working

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The Danger Is Real: The Deep State’s Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out … without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.”

– H. L. Mencken

If the three-ring circus that is the looming presidential election proves anything, it is that the Deep State’s plot to destabilize the nation is working.

The danger is real.

Caught up in the heavily dramatized electoral showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Americans have become oblivious to the multitude of ways in which the government is goosestepping all over our freedoms on a daily basis.

Especially alarming is the extent to which those on both sides are allowing themselves to be gaslighted by both Trump and Harris about critical issues of the day, selectively choosing to hear only what they want to hear when it casts the opposition in a negative light.

This is true whether you’re talking about immigration and border control, health care, national security, the nation’s endless wars, protections for free speech, or the militarization of the U.S. government.

For starters, there’s the free speech double standard, what my good friend Nat Hentoff used to refer to as the “free speech for me but not for thee” phenomenon in which the First Amendment’s protections only apply to those with whom we might agree.

Despite her claims to being a champion for the rule of law, which in our case is the U.S. Constitution, Harris isn’t averse to policing so-called “hate” speech. In this, Harris is not unlike those on both the Right and the Left who continue to express a distaste for unregulated, free speech online, especially when it comes to speech with which they might disagree.

Then there’s Trump, never a fan of free speech protections for his critics, who has been particularly vocal about his desire to see the military vanquish “radical left lunatics,” which he has dubbed “the enemy from within.”

If it were only about muzzling free speech activities, that would be concerning enough.

But Trump’s enthusiasm for using the military to target domestic enemies of the state should send off warning bells, especially coinciding as it does with the Department of Defense’s recent re-issuance of Directive 5240.01, which empowers the military to assist law enforcement “in situations where a confrontation between civilian law enforcement and civilian individuals or groups is reasonably anticipated.”

This is what martial law looks like—a government of force that relies on the military to enforce its authority—and it’s exactly what America’s founders feared, which is why they opted for a republic bound by the rule of law: the U.S. Constitution.

Responding to concerns that the military would be used for domestic policing, Congress passed the Posse Comitatus Act in 1878, which makes it a crime for the government to use the military to carry out arrests, searches, seizure of evidence and other activities normally handled by a civilian police force.

The increasing militarization of the police, the use of sophisticated weaponry against Americans and the government’s increasing tendency to employ military personnel domestically have all but eviscerated historic prohibitions such as the Posse Comitatus Act.

Yet sometime over the course of the past 240-plus years that constitutional republic has been transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

Unfortunately, most Americans seem relatively untroubled by the fact that our constitutional republic is being transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

The seeds of chaos that have been sown in recent years are all part of the Deep State’s plans to usher in martial law.

Observe for yourself what has been happening right before our eyes.

Domestic terrorism fueled by government entrapment schemes. Civil unrest stoked to dangerous levels by polarizing political rhetoric. A growing intolerance for dissent that challenges the government’s power grabs. Police brutality tacitly encouraged by the executive branch, conveniently overlooked by the legislatures, and granted qualified immunity by the courts. A weakening economy exacerbated by government schemes that favor none but a select few. Heightened foreign tensions and blowback due to the military industrial complex’s profit-driven quest to police and occupy the globe.

This is no conspiracy theory.

There’s trouble brewing, and the government is masterminding a response using the military.

Just take a look at “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command.

The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset, the way its views the citizenry, and the so-called “problems” that the government must be prepared to address in the near future through the use of martial law.

Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution, about the rights of the citizenry, and about the dangers of locking down the nation and using the military to address political and social problems.

The training video anticipates that all hell will break loose by 2030, but the future is here ahead of schedule.

We’re already witnessing a breakdown of society on virtually every front.

By waging endless wars abroad, by bringing the instruments of war home, by transforming police into extensions of the military, by turning a free society into a suspect society, by treating American citizens like enemy combatants, by discouraging and criminalizing a free exchange of ideas, by making violence its calling card through SWAT team raids and militarized police, by fomenting division and strife among the citizenry, by acclimating the citizenry to the sights and sounds of war, and by generally making peaceful revolution all but impossible, the government has engineered an environment in which domestic violence is becoming almost inevitable.

The danger signs are screaming out a message

The government is anticipating trouble (read: civil unrest), which is code for anything that challenges the government’s authority, wealth and power.

According to the Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command, the U.S. government is grooming its armed forces to solve future domestic political and social problems.

What they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

The chilling five-minute training video, obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request and made available online, paints an ominous picture of the future—a future the military is preparing for—bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

And then comes the kicker.

Three-and-a-half minutes into the Pentagon’s dystopian vision of “a world of Robert Kaplan-esque urban hellscapes — brutal and anarchic supercities filled with gangs of youth-gone-wild, a restive underclass, criminal syndicates, and bands of malicious hackers,” the ominous voice of the narrator speaks of a need to “drain the swamps.”

Drain the swamps.

Surely, we’ve heard that phrase before?

Ah yes.

Emblazoned on t-shirts and signs, shouted at rallies, and used as a rallying cry among Trump supporters, “drain the swamp” became one of Donald Trump’s most-used campaign slogans.

Now the government has adopted its own plans for swamp-draining, only it wants to use the military to drain the swamps of futuristic urban American cities of “noncombatants and engage the remaining adversaries in high intensity conflict within.”

And who are these noncombatants, a military term that refers to civilians who are not engaged in fighting?

They are, according to the Pentagon, “adversaries.”

They are “threats.”

They are the “enemy.”

They are people who don’t support the government, people who live in fast-growing urban communities, people who may be less well-off economically than the government and corporate elite, people who engage in protests, people who are unemployed, people who engage in crime (in keeping with the government’s fast-growing, overly broad definition of what constitutes a crime).

In other words, in the eyes of the U.S. military, noncombatants are American citizens a.k.a. domestic extremists a.k.a. enemy combatants who must be identified, targeted, detained, contained and, if necessary, eliminated.

In the future imagined by the Pentagon, any walls and prisons that are built will be used to protect the societal elite—the haves—from the have-nots.

If you haven’t figured it out already, we the people are the have-nots.

Suddenly it all begins to make sense.

The events of recent years: the invasive surveillance, the extremism reports, the civil unrest, the protests, the shootings, the bombings, the military exercises and active shooter drills, the color-coded alerts and threat assessments, the fusion centers, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, the distribution of military equipment and weapons to local police forces, the government databases containing the names of dissidents and potential troublemakers.

The government is systematically locking down the nation and shifting us into martial law.

This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls.

Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out. Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities, and persuade them that there is nothing they can do to alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

Before long, no one will even notice the floundering economy, the blowback arising from military occupations abroad, the police shootings, the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure and all of the other mounting concerns.

It’s happening already.

The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

Few seem to care about the government’s endless wars abroad that leave communities shattered, families devastated and our national security at greater risk of blowback.

The Deep State’s tactics are working.

We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned about the government’s nefarious schemes to lock down the nation.

Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that labelled right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) and called on the government to subject such targeted individuals to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance. Almost a decade later, after spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

And then you have the government’s Machiavellian schemes for unleashing all manner of dangers on an unsuspecting populace, then demanding additional powers in order to protect “we the people” from the threats.

Are you getting the picture yet?

The U.S. government isn’t protecting us from terrorism.

The U.S. government is creating the terror. It is, in fact, the source of the terror.

Just think about it for a minute: Cyberwarfare. Terrorism. Bio-chemical attacks. The nuclear arms race. Surveillance. The drug wars.

Almost every national security threat that the government has claimed greater powers in order to fight—all the while undermining the liberties of the American citizenry—has been manufactured in one way or another by the government.

Did I say Machiavellian? This is downright evil.

We’re not dealing with a government that exists to serve its people, protect their liberties and ensure their happiness. Rather, these are the diabolical machinations of a make-works program carried out on an epic scale whose only purpose is to keep the powers-that-be permanently (and profitably) employed.

Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats.

I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

I’m referring to the corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country and calling the shots in Washington DC, no matter who sits in the White House.

Be warned: in the future envisioned by the government, we will not be viewed as Republicans or Democrats. Rather, “we the people” will be enemies of the state.

For years, the government has been warning against the dangers of domestic terrorism, erecting surveillance systems to monitor its own citizens, creating classification systems to label any viewpoints that challenge the status quo as extremist, and training law enforcement agencies to equate anyone possessing anti-government views as a domestic terrorist.

What the government failed to explain was that the domestic terrorists would be of the government’s own making, and that “we the people” would become enemy #1.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we’re already enemies of the state.

It’s time to wake up and stop being deceived by Deep State propaganda.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:25

Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt

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Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt

A local TV reporter was struck in the arm with a bullet fragment while covering a campaign event for a Democratic Senate candidate featuring former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R).

Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce applies first aid to KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa after Gamboa was struck by ricochet from a bullet fragment shot from a gun handled by Kunce during a sport shooting campaign event with former Republican representative Adam Kinzinger on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

Missouri Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce – who’s trying to unseat Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) – was shooting an AR-15 at the time, and was the only person shooting when KSHB-TV’s Ryan Gamboa was struck.

Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce fires rounds from a custom AR15 during a sport shooting campaign event Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

Kunce, a former Marine, wrapped gauze around Gamboa’s arm and applied a tourniquet using his belt, according to the Kansas City Star, which notes that ‘Kunce has his military background in campaign ads, some of which show him firing a gun.‘

After he was treated, Gamboa soldiered on covering the event.

Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce takes questions from KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa after Gamboa was struck by ricochet from a bullet fragment shot from a gun handled by Kunce during a sport shooting campaign event Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

Maybe ‘hunters’ Kamala Harris and Tim Walz should have stopped by to offer some tips – like how to load a shotgun with your crotch?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:00

Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At ‘Resettle Gaza’ Conference

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Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At ‘Resettle Gaza’ Conference

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Monday, Israeli Knesset members and senior government ministers attended a conference on re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip that was held in southern Israel near the Gaza border.

The conference, titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” was organized by the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Image: Times of Israel/Nachala Settlement Movement

At least ten out of the 32 Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset were set to attend the conference, including May Golan, who is in Netanyahu’s government as the minister for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women.

In a speech at the rally, which drew hundreds of attendees, Golan vowed Palestinians in Gaza would face another “Nakba,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs when the modern state of Israel was formed in 1948.

“We will hit them where it hurts – their land,” Golan said, according to Haaretz. “Anyone who uses their plot of land to plan another Holocaust will receive from us, with God’s help, another Nakba that they will tell their children and their grandchildren about for the next 50 years.”

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, also delivered a speech at the conference, and he received a very warm welcome. Haaretz reported that attendees broke out in chants of “Look over here, it’s our next Prime Minister” and “Death penalty for terrorists,” referring to Ben Gvir’s calls to execute Palestinian prisoners to make room in Israeli prisons.

In his speech, Ben Gvir said, “We will encourage the voluntary transfer of all Gazan citizens. We will offer them the opportunity to move to other countries because that land belongs to us.”

Ben Gvir and other proponents of conquering Gaza have framed their idea as “voluntary” for the Palestinians, but the Israeli military campaign has made most of Gaza uninhabitable. Palestinians in northern Gaza are currently facing Israeli evacuation orders to move to the south under the threat of death by military action or starvation.

Other Israeli ministers who attended the conference include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the minister for the development of the Negev and Galilee.

Daniella Weiss, a leader of Nachala, vowed that Jewish settlements would begin popping up in Gaza within a year. “In less than a year, each one of you can call me and ask me if I succeeded in fulfilling my dream,” she told reporters at the conference. “Actually, you don’t even have to call me. You will witness how Jews go to Gaza and Arabs disappear from Gaza.”

Weiss also made it clear that her ambitions for Israeli expansion did not stop in Gaza or the West Bank. “The real borders of greater Israel are between the Euphrates River and the Nile.”

Haaretz recently reported that the Israeli government is not seeking to revive ceasefire talks with Hamas and is now pushing for the gradual annexation of large portions of the Gaza Strip.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/22/2024 – 22:35