Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

And so here we are, exhausted by the divisions, the frustration, the rage and our loneliness in a sea of madness few even see.

Isn’t it obvious? Of course it is. So what’s obvious? That there are sharply different views on what’s obvious.

Psychiatrist-author R.D. Laing noted back in 1967 as the Vietnam War raged that what was obvious to President Lyndon Johnson–that the war had to be prosecuted lest the Democratic party lose congressional seats in the 1968 election for being “soft on Communism”–was not obvious to those paying the price of the war as the collateral damage for the all-important political jockeying in Washington D.C.

As historian Peter Turchin has documented, the cycle of socio-economic-political disintegration-integration runs around fifty years, and so here we are. Turchin caught some flak for predicting the handbasket would start its slide into Heck in 2020, and voila.

A great many things are obvious, yet equally obvious is the chasm separating what’s obvious to each of us. The chasm is literally bottomless, and there are no bridges across it, no common ground, and so friendships–the glue of sociability, the foundation of our well-being–are tossed into the chasm with infuriated abandon–how dare you!

Having lived through the last cycle of tumult, discord and disintegration, that we’re in another such cycle is obvious to me, but not to others. That the end of the Debt-Speculation Super-Cycle is upon us is obvious to many of us, but hotly denied by the multitudes counting on The Everything Bubble never popping.

That mass media and social media have merged is obvious to me, but not to others. The source of income for all media players / content creators is now the same, and so the competition for “engagement” (i.e. attention, eyeballs, emotional vesting) is Darwinian on a heretofore unimaginable scale, a power-law scale in which the few winners at the very apex collect the vast majority of the winnings and the 99% trail off in the long tail, collecting the coins that roll off the table of the few.

By way of example, data collected by the Department of Justice on the 58,000 books published in a year revealed that 96% of books sell less than 1,000 copies, and 50 percent of all titles sold less than a dozen copies. (Source.) That’s one heck of a long tail: 30,000 books–most infused with the hopes and dreams of the authors–each sold 12 or less copies.

This aligns with the Pareto Distribution, the 80/20 rule, which distills down (80% of 80% = 64% and 20% of 20% = 4%) to the 64/4 rule: the top 4% scoop up two-thirds of the winnings, and the 96% brawl over the remaining third.

In social media, as in the rest of the economy, the percentages are even less favorable: the top 0.1% amass the vast majority of the gains. The top influencers rake in millions, the selfie-posting multitudes pick up pennies–if they’re lucky.

So what are the tools needed to win this Darwinian competition? Addiction, clickbait, emotional lassos and echo chambers: make the devices and endless scrolling addictive: you’re a winner. Feature sensationalized clickbait headlines: you’re a winner. Snare the unwary with emotional lassos: you’re a winner. Espouse shared beliefs to fellow true believers with ecstatic enthusiasm: you’re a winner.

So isn’t it obvious where this is going? Put another way: is this savage arena a healthy environment? Or is it deranging to all who wander in and are lassoed with such ease? What happens to those lassoed, addicted, ensnared? This chart of loneliness illuminates the inevitable result of making derangement the most profitable activity under the sun.

As others have insightfully pointed out, every individual who tries to walk past the arena has 100,000 well-paid, smart, highly motivated hawkers cajoling them into enter the arena. Hey pal, craving a dopamine hit? Come on in, we got dopamine hits galore inside. You’re gonna love it.

And so here we are, exhausted by the divisions, the frustration, the rage and our loneliness in a sea of madness few even see. Fortunately, I have the perfect antidote for you: click here, and you’ll be delighted by an endless scroll of adorable kids playing with puppies and kittens. Your dopamine levels are going to low-Earth orbit, you’re gonna love it.

Or if you have super-human powers, walk past the arena and keep walking.

*  *  *

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A California court dismissed class action certification for a lawsuit filed by a former employee that accused Twitter of not paying laid off workers bonuses that were allegedly promised.

Mark Schobinger, the plaintiff, was Twitter’s senior director of compensation during 2022–23, a time when the company was in the process of being acquired by Elon Musk, according to an Oct. 16 order issued by the U.S. District Court, Northern District of California.

At the time, Schobinger was a member of a group of employees eligible to receive annual bonuses in early 2023. However, the company was under no obligation to pay, a fact that is “undisputed” under the terms of the bonus, the order noted. Paying the bonus was “a matter of discretion” for the firm.

Schobinger alleged that the company promised employees in April, May, and August of 2022 that it would pay the bonus provided the workers stayed with the firm throughout the acquisition. The plaintiff claimed he did stay during this phase because of the promise. He filed the lawsuit after not getting paid, and sought class certification.

On Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria denied Schobinger’s motion, noting he is unfit to act as a class representative.

The judge pointed out that the plaintiff had argued against Twitter paying the bonus while he was under employment with the firm.

In November 2022, months after Twitter’s bonus promise, Schobinger sent a message to the company’s “Head of People Experience,” stating that whether to pay the bonus was purely dependent on the “discretion” of Musk. Schobinger also wrote that he recommended not to pay the bonus.

In February 2023, the plaintiff sent a “white paper” to several executives on the issue, stating that “not paying a bonus would be prudent.” Evidence also points to Schobinger telling Musk in a meeting a month earlier that the firm need not pay the bonus, the order stated.

These statements make Schobinger “not an adequate class representative,” Chhabria wrote.

“At his deposition, Schobinger offered a convoluted explanation for how he could possibly have believed he was entitled to the bonus while simultaneously advocating that the company not pay it. It seems likely that Schobinger’s explanation is untrue,” the judge said.

“But even if he is telling the truth, that’s beside the point for purposes of this motion. Because even if he is telling the truth, his conduct makes him the worst possible candidate to serve as a litigation representative for the other Twitter employees who didn’t get a bonus.”

The court also highlighted a major issue with the motion—a “large number” of proposed class members signed arbitration agreements with Twitter, some of which also waived off class action lawsuits against the company.

Based on these observations, the judge denied the motion.

Employee Lawsuits

Twitter faces multiple lawsuits related to employee layoffs. After Musk took over Twitter in 2022, the company cut down its workforce.

In August, U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguin dismissed a lawsuit brought by former employees with disabilities who were fired after the takeover.

Dmitry Borodaenko, an ex-employee, argued that the terminations violated Americans with Disabilities Act as the layoffs treated disabled people differently.

After Musk’s acquisition, the firm reversed work-from-home policies and said that employees who remained with the company would have to work for long hours, according to the complaint.

Martínez-Olguin pointed out that the plaintiff did not back his claims with proof. “Borodaenko fails to show how employees with disabilities were treated differently by Twitter’s broad return-to-the-office policy and increased workload,” the judge wrote in her ruling.

“Borodaenko’s theory improperly relies on the assumption that all employees with disabilities necessarily required remote work as a reasonable accommodation.”

In July, a California judge sided with Twitter in another case related to mass firing of staff members. The plaintiffs sought at least $500 million as severance pay for around 6,000 terminated workers.

The lawsuit alleged that Twitter promised a favorable severance plan that resulted in the employees staying longer at the firm than they would have. When they were let go, they received less severance pay than expected, it said.

The judge in the case noted that after Musk took over, Twitter notified staff members that they would get lower severance payouts when laid off, thus dismissing the complaint.

More than ever, attending an NFL game is becoming a luxury commodity.

In 2023 alone, average ticket prices jumped 8.6% to $120. Driving up costs are new stadiums, which are being built with fewer seats as luxury boxes and premium seats take up more space. The newly-built Allegiant Stadium, for instance, which hosted last year’s Super Bowl in Las Vegas, has 65,000 seats—one of the lowest in the league.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the rising cost of attending an NFL game, based on data from Team Marketing Report via FinanceBuzz.

How Much Have NFL Game Costs Increased?

Below, we show the cost increase of an average NFL ticket, parking, beer, and hot dog since 2013:

Over the last decade, NFL game costs have risen by 39%, surpassing the rate of inflation.

The Las Vegas Raiders, with their new stadium and relocation, have experienced the most significant price hikes. Compared to 2013, attending a game is $103 more expensive. The Allegiant Stadium, costing a staggering $1.9 billion to build, is one of the most expensive in the world.

Meanwhile, attending a Cleveland Browns game is nearly double the cost compared to 2013.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl victories have contributed to higher ticket costs in particular, rising 103% over the past decade. On the resale market, Chiefs tickets were the second-highest in the league in 2023, with home tickets costing $468, on average.

In stark contrast, Dallas Cowboys game costs declined 1% compared to a decade ago. Despite being the world’s most valuable sports team, game costs remain fairly stable, at $160 in 2023 versus $162 in 2013. For context, the Cowboys had the highest game costs in 2013, while costs are slightly above the NFL average today.

Like the Cowboys, the New York Jets and New England Patriots have seen among the lowest price hikes overall.

To learn more about this topic from an earnings perspective, check out this graphic on the top NFL teams by revenue.

Authored by Anne Johnson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A mortgage goes on after your death. The lender will still require payment, or they’ll foreclose. Whether you’ve willed your home to a relative or you died “intestate,” someone needs to pay.

But how does that work? Can anyone pay the mortgage, or does it need to be refinanced? Establishing your wishes ahead of time will help with a smooth transition and protect your heirs. They’ll be able to keep your home and avoid foreclosure.

Who’s Responsible for a Mortgage After Death?

When you pass, your debts are paid from your estate, and your executor uses your assets to pay any creditors.

But what about the mortgage? If there is a co-signer on the loan, they will be responsible for paying the mortgage. If you have mortgage-protection insurance, the remaining debt will be paid by the insurance policy. The payments will go directly to the mortgage lender.

But if you don’t have mortgage-protection insurance and the loan only has your name on it, no one is responsible for paying it. The financial institution will foreclose on the house for nonpayment.

It should be noted that a co-signer of a mortgage loan is solely responsible for the mortgage regardless of whether they have rights to ownership of the property.

Inheriting a Home With a Mortgage

Usually, when a mortgaged property transfers ownership, an alienation clause or due-on-sale clause is activated. This means that the balance of the loan must be paid immediately.

There are laws that allow heirs to inherit the home’s title without triggering the due-on-sale clause. This means if you will a home to a relative, they can assume your mortgage and continue making monthly payments.

It’s important for the heir to keep the mortgage current even if they haven’t legally assumed the property’s title. That way there’s no worry of foreclosure.

Once you have legally taken ownership of the house, you can continue paying the current loan or refinance. You don’t have to have a credit check to take over the loan, but you will need one if you choose to refinance.

What Happens If There’s a Reverse Mortgage?

You may have inherited the house, but if it has a reverse mortgage, there are fewer possibilities than if it has a standard mortgage.

The surviving heirs or heir must pay off the entire loan balance or turn the deed over to the lender.

Who Pays Mortgage When Divided Among Multiple Heirs?

Multiple people could inherit a house. If they agree to assume the mortgage, they become co-borrowers and will continue to make payments.

Three out of four parents intend to leave their homes to their children. But almost 70 percent of those heirs say they will sell the houses. If the heirs agree to sell, they can use the proceeds to pay off the mortgage.

But if there are multiple heirs and one doesn’t want to sell, they can buy out the others. If the heirs cannot agree, the courts may require a sale of the property to pay off the lender.

What Happens If You Die Without a Will?

If you die without a will or trust, the courts will appoint an executor to distribute the assets. Unless there is a transfer on the deed, then the mortgage is entered into the unsettled estate.

The executor could use outstanding assets to make mortgage payments until an heir is settled or the house is sold.

How Does Your Heir Notify the Mortgage Company?

There is usually a formal process for notifying a mortgage lender, but generally, the heir must notify the lender in writing.

The letter should include:

• deceased person’s name
• address
• date of death
• account number

The lender will require a death certificate to confirm the borrower’s death.

If there is a will and named executor, the lender will require documents affirming the designation. Without a will, they will require an administrator appointed by the court to deliver the necessary documents.

The lender will require the contact details of the person handling the deceased estate.

How to Assume the Mortgage of an Inherited House

First, the lender needs to know that the borrower has died. They also need to know who has legally inherited the house. The lender will require documentation from all the heirs.

If the heir is not the co-signer, they will need to work with the lender to initiate a transfer of ownership. The heir will need to show a death certificate and proof of inheritance. This is a simple process.

The heir should make payments where the owner left off to deter foreclosure.

If the heirs are listed on the bank accounts, they can use those funds to pay the mortgage (you’ll need to provide the bank or credit union with a death certificate).

An heir who wishes to live in the home but cannot afford the payments has the option to refinance the mortgage.

Your Heirs Pay the Mortgage

The bottom line is if your heirs want to keep the house, they can. But they will need to pay the existing mortgage or refinance it in their name.

When there are multiple heirs, it might be a little more complicated if they’re not all on the same page. Then, the house may need to be sold to compensate each heir.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2024. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Authored by Peter St Onge via The Brownstone Institute,

Authoritarianism is back across the West – from Europe to the Biden-Harris censorship regime that would fit perfectly in Communist China. 

I think many of us were surprised during Covid to realize just what the supposedly liberal West has become: Essentially the Soviet Union but with better uniforms — well, better video games, anyway.

Of course, it was decades in the making — Covid just showed their cards.

The question, as always, is What’s Next.

For better or worse, authoritarianism has happened many times in history — it’s kind of the human default. The original state.

Humanity has a lot of experience with authoritarianism.

So how did people protect themselves last time?

Dodging Tyranny in the 1940s

An elegant illustration is the 1940s, where essentially the entire globe went authoritarian socialist and then — as always — went to war. 

And the correct response very much depended on where you were.

If you were in New York, you adjusted your stock portfolio. 

FDR’s 52nd birthday party, dressed as Caesar. The fasces bottom right is unintentionally apt.

If you were in Britain you moved to the countryside and stockpiled canned food.

If you were in Switzerland you packed a go-bag in case the German army decided to fill in the map. 

And if you were in Germany, of course, the only plan was to get the heck out.

The problem is when to pull each trigger: When do you adjust the portfolio? Buy the canned food? Pack the go-bag? When do you get the heck out?

Each of these preparations has a cost. And the more successful you are — the more you’ve built or achieved — the higher those costs go. Moving your family, your business, converting your career to location-independent where you can support your family. 

People ask why people didn’t leave Berlin before it was too late, and those costs are why.

The good news is that this means the vast majority of us will stay and fight. 

I mean, true patriots will always stay and fight. But those mounting costs mean even apolitical people will fight. 

French Resistance taking a Sunday stroll.

They will fight in proportion to the risk — because the cost rises with it. And they will fight in proportion to what they’ve built. 

That is, the people with the most to lose – the natural elite – are the most likely to stay.

Every election since George W we’ve been treated to Hollywood liberals threatening to leave the country. You don’t hear influential people on the other side saying that. 

We will stay.

The Bleaker It Gets, the Better Our Odds

And stay we should. Because I know I’ve made this point repeatedly in videos, but we are going to win. 

Why? Partly tactical. They launched their takeover too soon. Because Covid fell into their lap, and they were still a generation away from the brainwashing it would take for a totalitarian takeover.

Instead, the people rejected it. The Covid state left dangerous remnants, to be sure, that will become malignant if not excised.

Still, it’s striking — perhaps unprecedented — the degree to which a totalitarian regime, once installed, was almost entirely removed. And the reason is encouraging: Because it polled atrociously — you may remember the Dems turning as one just after Biden assumed office. 

In other words, even with our shabby election infrastructure, they still fear the people.

What remains post-Covid is an institutionalized left that has lost credibility with the majority. That is overextended, that has completely lost touch with the people.

This loss of legitimacy means they are far weaker than pre-Covid. 

And Democracy is coming for them.

Liberty’s Moment

We’re already seeing the backlash with Trump surging in the polls, with Canada on deck next year, and European countries electing populists.

Even more encouraging, if you zoom out rarely in history has liberty had so many advantages. Thanks to the internet — with a big assist from Elon. 

Of course, liberty starts out with the advantage that man is not by nature a slave. Slavery is an unstable equilibrium. It’s fragile. Just waiting for the right push. 

But this is up against the natural advantage of authoritarianism — it has the money. And money buys guns.

It has the money because it seizes half of what you earn and uses it against you, then prints up whatever else it needs at the central bank. Then it uses that money to control the levers of society, from education to media to finance.

We have the numbers, they have the money.

Trust in Government Collapsing in Both Parties.

What’s Next

If it comes down to numbers vs money, our numbers are growing fast. Moreover, gloriously, the more they push the more we grow.

Meaning they only have 2 options: pull back and hold on for dear life against the backlash. Or keep pushing and they’re out of power. It’s only a matter of time.

In the 1970’s the great economist Murray Rothbard noted that you could fit the entire liberty movement in a New York living room.

Now there are literally a billion of us. 

Forget a living room, we couldn’t fit in a state.

Meanwhile their advantage – money – is collapsing before our eyes. Crashing in crippling debt, nervous financial markets, the limits of inflationary printing, and the moribund stagflation that always accompanies it.

In short, we’re getting stronger. They’re getting weaker. And the longer it takes, the more spectacular will be our victory.

A version of this appeared at the author’s Substack 

Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Short for nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide, NAD+ supplements are being studied for their effects on cellular energy production, mitochondria function, and DNA repair. Before reaching for a supplement, though, it’s important to explore the role of NAD+ in the body and the existing evidence on its ties to longevity, as well as ways to boost NAD+ levels naturally.

As researchers work to uncover the mechanisms behind aging, NAD+ has emerged as a promising therapeutic.

What Is NAD+?

NAD+ is a coenzyme, a small molecule that acts as a catalyst for enzymes to perform their functions. NAD+ is found in all cells in the body and has a critical role in transferring energy within our cells.

NAD+ is involved in various metabolic processes, including converting the food we eat into the energy our cells need to stay alive. It helps generate adenosine triphosphate (ATP), a final product our bodies can use. ATP is the end fuel source all our cells use. Without NAD, you cannot make ATP—an essential part of life.

NAD vs. NAD+

NAD+ is the functional form of NAD in the body. Although these terms are sometimes used interchangeably, they are not the same molecule.

“NAD+ is the one we are primarily focused on when it comes to longevity, cellular health, and energy,” Dr. Orel Swenson, founder of Aeonic Health, a regenerative and longevity medicine practice based in Boston, told The Epoch Times in an email.

As observed in mouse models, NAD+ levels naturally drop as we age. By the time we reach middle age, our NAD+ levels are at half of what they were in our youth.

“NAD+ levels decline naturally with age partly because the accumulation of DNA damage and loss of mitochondrial efficiency demand more and more NAD+,” said Swenson.

NAD Supplementation

A few existing methods to restore NAD+ levels include oral supplements, nasal sprays, transdermal patches, self-injections, and fusion therapy. The main differences lie in the delivery. Some methods are considered faster and more effective than others.

NAD+ itself isn’t really a supplement that can be effectively taken by mouth. The bioavailability is quite limited this way,” said Swenson.

For this reason, other methods of administering NAD+, such as via IV infusion or subcutaneous injections, are growing in popularity.

“Unsurprisingly, when taking an oral supplement, the increase in your NAD+ levels is more gradual. Infusions and injections are much quicker but are more expensive and require clinician oversight for safety,” he said.

“When given this way, it’s imperative to work with a healthcare professional familiar with NAD+ administration, as it can cause nausea, headaches, fatigue, and even low blood pressure if given incorrectly,” he continued.

NAD+ Precursors

Precursors are molecules that are converted into another substance or compound by a chemical reaction. NMN (nicotinamide mononucleotide) and NR (nicotinamide riboside) are substances the body can use to produce NAD+. While NAD+ is more challenging for the body to absorb, these precursors are more easily converted into NAD+.

“NMN needs fewer steps (i.e., it is closer to becoming NAD+) than NR, but both are available as oral supplements with good bioavailability,” explained Swenson.

A study published in GeroScience in 2023 determined that NMN supplementation increases blood concentrations of NAD+ and is safe and well tolerated in oral doses of up to 900 mg per day.

NR, a new form of vitamin B3, is also recognized as safe and effective in raising NAD+ levels at a cellular level. NR oral supplements are often found at a lower price point than NMN varieties.

Swenson explained the role of NAD+ in terms of longevity in four points. As a coenzyme, it interacts with other enzymes in the body to facilitate:

1. ATP production: NAD+ acts as a coenzyme, interacting with other enzymes in the body to produce ATP, the final energy source for cells.
2. Mitochondrial health: Mitochondria can be likened to a refinery or power station where ATP production takes place. NAD+ is essential for maintaining optimal mitochondrial function and for mitochondrial biogenesis, which involves the creation of new mitochondria.
3. DNA repair: Sirtuins are signaling proteins that have a critical role in the aging process, including energy metabolism, inflammation, and extending lifespan. By interacting with sirtuins, NAD+ mediates the repair of damaged DNA, which accumulates as people age.
4. Reduction of inflammation: NAD+ plays a role in reducing inflammation. As we age and levels decline, we may experience an accumulation of inflammation, known as “inflammaging.”

A review published in The International Journal of Molecular Science concluded that the existing research on the benefits of NAD+ on aging and healthspan is currently based on cell cultures and model organisms, and research on humans is warranted. Further research is also needed on long-term effects and dosage.

Swenson concluded, “It [NAD+] does not represent a magic bullet, but rather should be viewed as part of an overall strategy for maximizing healthy aging.”

Gauging NAD+ Levels

There may be too much of a good thing, as high NAD+ levels have been linked to cancer and impact immunity. Existing evidence on the exact mechanisms of the connection is limited. However, NAD+ levels seem to have both pro- and anti-cancer effects. It may serve as a protective factor early on in cancer development but as a promoting factor later in the progression of the disease.

A study published in Nutrients found that “Replenishing NAD pools by NR could inhibit tumor growth and cancer metastasis as well as promote the overall health status of tumor-bearing mice.”

Specifically, the authors suggested that boosting NAD by NR supplementation could be a novel strategy to prevent the progression of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Read the rest here…

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

One week before the absolutely crucial BRICS summit in Kazan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held a summit in Islamabad.

This convergence is important in more ways than one.

The summit in Pakistan involved the Council of the Heads of Government of SCO member-states. Out of it came a joint communique stressing the need to implement decisions taken at the SCO annual summit last July in Astana: that’s where the heads of state actually gathered, including new SCO full member Iran.

China, following the rotating SCO chairmanship of close ally Pakistan – now under a dodgy administration fully endorsed by the military goons who keep ultra-popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail – has officially taken over the SCO presidency for 2024 to 2025. And the name of game, predictably, is business.

The motto of the Chinese presidency is – what else – “action”. So Beijing took no time to start promoting further, faster synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), whose predominant power is Russia.

Cue to the Russia-China strategic partnership fast advancing trans-Eurasia economic corridors. And that brings us to a couple of key connectivity subplots featured prominently at the Islamabad summit.

Riding the steppe

Let’s start with the fascinating Steppe Road – which is a Mongolian idea crystalizing as an upgraded economic corridor. Mongolia is an observer at the SCO, not a full member: reasons for it are quite complex. Still, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin raved about the Steppe Road with his SCO interlocutors.

The Mongolians came up with the idea of a Taliin Zam (“Steppe Road” in Mongolian) back in 2014, containing no less than “Five Great Passages”: a maze of transport and energy infrastructure to be built with investments totaling at least $50 billion.

These include a 997 km-long transnational expressway linking Russia-China; 1,100 km of electrified railway infrastructure; the expansion of the – already running – Trans-Mongolian Railway from Sukhbaatar in the north to Zamyn-Uud in the south; and Pipelineistan of course, as in new oil and gas pipelines linking Altanbulag in the north to Zamyn-Uud.

Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai was as enthusiastic as Mishustin, announcing that Mongolia has already finalized 33 Steppe Road projects.

These projects happen to neatly align with Russia’s own Trans-Eurasian Corridor – a connectivity maze which includes the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Trans-Manchurian Railway, the Trans-Mongolian Railway and the Baikal Amur Mainline (BAM).

Back in July at the SCO summit, Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh spent quite some time discussing the finer strategic points of Eurasian logistics.

Then Putin visited Mongolia in early September for the 85th anniversary of the joint Soviet-Mongolian victory over the Japanese at the Khalkhin Gol River. Putin was received as a rock star.

All that makes perfect strategic sense. The Russia-Mongolia border is 3,485 km-long. The USSR and the Mongolian People’s Republic established diplomatic relations over a century ago, in 1921. They have been working together on key projects such as the Trans-Mongolian gas pipeline – yet another Russia-China connection; modernization of the Ulaanbaatar Railway joint venture; Russia supplying fuel to the new Chinggis Khaan International Airport; and Rosatom building a nuclear power plant.

Mongolia harbors the proverbial wealth of natural resources, from rare earth minerals (reserves may reach an astonishing 31 million tons) to uranium (prospective reserves of 1.3 million tons). Even as it applies what is called the Third Neighbor approach, Mongolia needs to maintain a careful balancing act, as it is on the radar non-stop of the US and the EU, with the collective West pressing  for less Eurasia cooperation with Russia-China.

Naturally Russia holds a major strategic advantage over the West, as Moscow not only treats Mongolia as an equal partner but can provide its neighbor’s needs when it comes to energy security.

What makes it all even more enticing is that Beijing envisions the Steppe Road as “highly consistent” with BRI, complete with the proverbial enthusiasm hailing the synergy and “win-win cooperation” between both projects.

This is not a military alliance

Complementing the Steppe Road drive, Chinese Premier Li Qiang went to Pakistan not only for the SCO summit but with a connectivity priority: advancing the next stage of the $65 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguably BRI’s flagship project.

Li and his Pakistani counterpart Sharif finally inaugurated the strategically crucial, Chinese-financed Gwadar International Airport in southwest Balochistan – against all odds plus intermittent raids by CIA-funded separatist Baloch guerrillas.

CPEC is an extremely ambitious multi-level infrastructure development project encompassing several nodes starting from the China-Pakistan border in the Khunjerab pass, down through the – upgraded – Karakoram highway and descending south across Balochistan all the way to the Arabian Sea.

In the future CPEC may even include a gas pipeline from Gwadar going up north all the way to Xinjiang – further easing China’s reliance on energy transported across the Strait of Malacca, which could be blocked by the Hegemon in no time.

The pre-BRICS SCO summit in Pakistan once again reiterated the synergy of several aspects concerning both multilateral bodies. SCO member states – from the Central Asians to India and Pakistan – overwhelmingly understand Russian reasoning when it comes to the inevitability of the Special Military Operation (SMO).

The Chinese position, officially, is a marvel of equilibrium and suave ambiguity; even as Beijing stresses the support for the principle of national sovereignty, it has not condemned Russia; and at the same time it has never directly blamed NATO for the de facto war.

Geoeconomic connectivity is very much the priority for top SCO powers and strategic partners Russia-China. Since the early 2000s the SCO has evolved from counter-terrorism to  geoeconomic cooperation. Once again in Islamabad it was clear that the SCO will not turn into a military alliance in an anti-NATO mold.

What matters most now for all members, apart from geoeconomic cooperation, is to combat the West’s war of terror – bound to go on overdrive with the imminent, humiliating failure of Project Ukraine.

A mechanism that could further solidify the SCO and pave the way for a merger with BRICS further on down the – rocky – road is the Chinese concept of Global Security Initiative, which happens to dovetail with the Russian concept presented to – and rejected by – the US in December 2021, only two months before the inevitability of the SMO.

China proposes to “uphold the principle of indivisible security” as well as “build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture” and firmly oppose “the building of national security on the basis of insecurity of other countries”. That’s something that every member of the SCO – not to mention BRICS – subscribes to.

In a nutshell, indivisibility of security as envisaged by Russia-China amounts to the de facto application of the UN Charter. The result would be peace on a global level – and by implication the death knell to NATO.

While indivisibility of security still can’t be adopted Eurasia-wide – as the Hegemon deploys a war of terror in several fronts to undermine the emergence of a multi-nodal world – win-win cross-border connectivity keeps on rolling, from the Steppe Road to New Silk Road corridors.

Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via Americvan Greatness,

Vice President Kamala Harris’s disastrous performance in her interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier was notable for two reasons.

• First, to the degree that there was any discussion of foreign national security threats to America, Harris only mentioned Iran. She failed to mention the disastrous war in Ukraine, where more than a million are dead, and the threat of nuclear war exists. Harris failed to reconcile her administration’s billions in dollars of military and civilian aid to Ukraine and policy actions against Russia for the most significant military threat in Europe since the end of World War Two. Worse though was her failure to make any reference to the existential threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

• Second, her performance in response to salient questions—ones that had the chance to inform American voters—was an amalgamation of incoherence, anger, and deception that revealed a candidate who is uniquely unsuited to be president of the United States. The fact that she is the Democratic candidate and might become president is alarming to America’s friends, as it is welcomed by America’s enemies.

In the interview, she had the opportunity to discuss her analysis of threats to America. While Iran is certainly a regional danger and a threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, it pales in comparison to the existential threat of the CCP. Indeed, Iran and Russia would be far less of a concern if the CCP were not given a free hand to back these aggressor nations. That the PRC is a grave and fundamental threat is revealed by its hyper-aggressive policies against the American people, U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines, and partners like India and Taiwan.

An example of the CCP’s threatening military posture was put on display when Exercise Joint Sword 2024B launched on October 14, in which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces encircled Taiwan to coerce its new leader, President Lai Ching-te, into a posture of subservience to the PRC. Thus far, those coercive attempts have failed. But Joint Sword 2024B revealed three aspects of the growing PRC threat. First, it showed the increasing capabilities of the PRC. Second, it demonstrated the ever-increasing penetrations of Taiwanese air and seaspace in an effort to normalize those violations and mask the actual invasion when it comes. Third, the first participation of the Chinese Coast Guard in the encirclement of Taiwan occurred.

• First, with respect to the increased capabilities of the PLA Navy, it should be noted that their first aircraft carrier, Chinese Navy Ship (CNS) Liaoning/CV-16, conducted 90 fixed-wing take-offs and recoveries and 50 more from their embarked helicopters during their operations in the exercise. That is 140 sorties from a PLA Navy aircraft carrier in just one day. By any measure, the PLA Navy’s carrier aviation capabilities are now approaching U.S. Navy aircraft carrier air wing levels in terms of the number of sorties. It is the case that PLAN aircraft have a more limited range and weapons capacity than their U.S. Navy counterparts, due to the Liaoning’s ski-ramp launch, but the fact remains that within just two years, the Liaoning has gone from launching an average of just 30 sorties a day in 2022 to a 140 today. That is a real strategic trendline that presidential candidate Harris demonstrated no awareness or strategy to counter.

• Second, regarding PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air and seaspace, exercise Joint Sword 2024B provides another inflection point in the PRC’s dramatic transformation of the military status quo in the cross-strait environment. During the exercise, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that it detected a total of 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN ships, and 12 Coast Guard ships operating around Taiwan and that 111 of those aircraft crossed the centerline of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zones from the west, southwest, and east. To put that into perspective, from 1954 to 2020, PLA aircraft only crossed the centerline four times. This pattern of PLA air force incursions across the centerline began in earnest in 2022 when the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the PRC no longer recognized the centerline—a clear violation of the previous agreements between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington to not forcibly alter the status quo. Yet since then, and now with exercise Joint Sword 2024B, the Biden-Harris administration has made no mention of this hyper-aggressive behavior by Beijing or taken any actions to rectify it.

• Third, the Joint Sword 2024B exercise was unique in that it demonstrated the use of non-PLA ships from the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) in this PLA-led exercise. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported up to 17 CCGs were detected operating in the waters off Taiwan, or as the PRC’s Global Times noted, the “CCG conducted multi-unit, multi-formation, and multi-subject drills around the island of Taiwan, focusing on strengthening the control network around the island.” The implications of these unprecedented actions by the CCG are to demonstrate that the CCP’s strategy to bring Taiwan under its control, either by blockade or an outright invasion, will use the entirety of the PRC’s assets—a whole of government effort. These facts at sea demonstrate that the PRC’s 2019 declaration of a “People’s War” against the United States is not just propaganda but is advancing in tangible ways.

Americans need to understand the scope and scale of the CCP’s grand strategy as evidenced by the PLA Navy and the CCG’s demonstrated actions during exercise Joint Sword 2024B. The evidence is undeniable: the CCP intends for the PRC to become the dominant naval force, not just in Asia but across the globe.

This reality comes against the backdrop of a Biden-Harris administration that keeps downsizing the size and capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

So, when Bret Baier asks candidate Harris what America’s number one foreign adversary is and there is no mention of the PRC, Americans know this candidate is not competent to assume the office of the Presidency. Americans need to pay attention because U.S. national security is on a knife’s edge—to the U.S., the CCP is a hyper-aggressive regime that is determined to realize its grand strategic objective of dominance. Yet Harris displays no strategic gravitas. She evinces no evidence of the seriousness of the situation or of an understanding that deterrence of the CCP’s hyper-aggression is on her shoulders—let alone having a plan to address this threat.

Deterrence of the CCP is everything. If it fails, this country will be at war with the PRC. Harris appears oblivious to the demands and requirements of deterrence. Accordingly, before the PRC blockades or invades Taiwan or launches an attack against the Philippines in the South China Sea, Americans must have a president sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office who has the knowledge, experience, and courage to prepare our nation for the demands of deterrence of the CCP’s aggression. It must have a president who signals in stark and no uncertain terms to the CCP that their aggression is certain to fail—and so they had better not try it in the first place. A president who not only can talk tough but has the wherewithal to rebuild the U.S. deterrent. The catechism of deterrence is straightforward: weakness invites aggression; strength deters it. Americans must elect a president who understands this catechism and so defends our nation from all threats—most especially from the existential threat of the PRC.

On Sunday, Donald Trump poked fun at Kamala Harris’ dubious claim that she ‘worked at McDonald’s and made fries,’ by going to a McDonald’s and making fries, plus working the drive-thru.

President Trump serves fries to a Fox 29 Philly crew in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/hUnVM4b9OR

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 20, 2024

Ding, fries are done!

HAPPENING NOW: President Trump is killing it on his first day on the job at McDonalds. Perfectly salted hot crispy fries. pic.twitter.com/DTH2cdGkEI

— Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) October 20, 2024

Memes have been made.

🚨BREAKING: New McDonalds ad featuring Trump just dropped! pic.twitter.com/frJN5yQz3s

— Jason Rink (@TheJasonRink) October 20, 2024

pic.twitter.com/MWEUVcY6YG

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2024

McTriggered!

While most on the right thought it was a fun pre-election publicity stunt, it really triggered the left – which didn’t know what to do.

If @McDonalds will hire adjudicated rapists and 34x convicted felons, I’m never eating there again. https://t.co/YR0uvZdHxQ

— Eccentrical Foodie☮️🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦💙🫏 #TeamHarris (@FoodieEccentric) October 21, 2024

The sourpusses even posted a gotcha! Suggesting that because the McDonald’s closed for Trump’s event, the whole thing was staged. Well, duh. The guy was only almost assassinated twice (or thrice) and this is for fun.

So awesome! @realDonaldTrump working at McDonald’s today (something Kommiela never did) has triggered the worst people on the left! The meltdown is WILD. https://t.co/dgnrJLBplM

— Jase (@JaseSTL) October 20, 2024

Cope and seethe https://t.co/hG9Tee3gW5

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 20, 2024

Tim Walz had jazz hands of fury – and despite all the lies, insisting that Kamala Harris actually worked there. We’re sure he’s not lying this time too.

This guy spent decades stiffing workers pay, cut overtime benefits for millions of people, and opposed any effort to raise the minimum wage.

You know who has actually worked at McDonald’s, joined workers on picket lines, and fights for working people? @KamalaHarris. https://t.co/QzFMVLiuaj

— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) October 20, 2024

Even Matt Drudge opined (2016 Matt, blink twice if you need help).

pic.twitter.com/0sXg5izMmN

— Matt Drudge (@DRUDGE) October 20, 2024

Hilariously, The Atlantic‘s David Frum revealed he doesn’t know the difference between grilling and frying (and earned a nice ratio).

“Frying” pic.twitter.com/By5VmOCjqC

— Gummi (@gummibear737) October 20, 2024

This is how you know the publicity stunt worked…

Matt Drudge’s slide into mainstream media obscurity has been one of the more remarkable events of the post-Trump era, yet – like an insane uncle locked up in the attic – few would bring it up in polite conversation (especially since so little is known about what caused Drudge’s striking U-turn in his one-time embrace of Trump). However, his tweet (or post) from last week that according to Wall Street, Kamala had a 72 chance to win (since deleted)…

… prompted us to respond.

That’s completely incorrect: according to Goldman Sachs, the Trump Victory index just hit an all time high while the Kamala index is back to Joe Biden Levels. Meanwhile, JPMorgan said that hedge funds are piling into Republican winner trades while dumping Democrat winners. https://t.co/wZBPOHbMBG pic.twitter.com/mq3uCxWjEI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 18, 2024

We were the first, but hardly last, and shortly after our response to Drudge, both Goldman and JPMorgan chimed in, with reports that validated our criticism of Drudge’s naive – and dead wrong – claim.

Later that day, JPMorgan’s closely followed Positioning Intelligence team published a must read report (available to pro subs), in which John Schlegel summarized the recent hedge fund positioning rather simply: “all-in on Trump themes.“

This is how the JPM trader summarizes the findings of his report:

As odds of a Trump presidency and Red Wave have increased over the past few weeks, we’ve seen themes that are perceived to be Republican Winners (JPREPWIN) outperform Democratic Winners (JPDEMWIN) by ~7% over the past month. Crypto stocks and small caps have performed better, while Renewables have underperformed. In addition, the wider US equity market continues to make new ATHs and positioning appears to be elevated. Based on the thematic shifts, historical returns around elections, and elevated positioning, there’s room for a bit of disappointment and reversal in coming weeks if odds start to shift the other way.

In other words, the “smart market” is increasingly going all-in on a Trump victory.

Below we excerpt the main highlights from the report (much more in the full report available to professional subs):

• 1. All in on Trump Themes? Hedge Fund flows have shown a strong preference for Republican themes with Rep Winners (JPREPWIN) bought over the past few weeks, putting positioning near ~2yr highs, while Dem Winners (JPDEMWIN) were sold throughout the year and positioning at multi-year low. The relative Rep vs. Dem flows have shifted from -2z a few weeks ago to +2z over the past 10 days. Renewables (JP11RNEW, a clear proxy for a Dem win) have been sold a lot in the past couple weeks and positioning is turning more bearish again.

• Crypto stocks have seen volatile flows, though buying lately has not been as strong as it was in mid-July.

• 2. Flows Turning Positive & Positioning Relatively High Ahead of Election (vs. Prior Cycles). HF and ETF flows have been turning more positive lately and 4 week HF net flows have shifted materially from -2z in early Sep to +1z most recently.

• ETF flows tend to stay positive post elections and even in years when they’re very strong, but S&P returns are often very muted in Oct during election years since 1950 (avg +10bps with range of +2.6% to -2.7% (ex. 2008)).

• Overall positioning level for US equities remains somewhat elevated (+1.0z, >90th %-tile) and in prior election years since 2012, both positioning and SPX returns have tended to trend lower in the weeks heading into the election.

• 3. Small Caps and Momentum…What’s the Setup? Small Caps / Russell 2000 is perceived to rally if we get a Red Wave, but Russell 2000 futures positioning seems pretty elevated already (vs. more neutral prior to the July bump).

• Looking at a 3yr z-score of net positioning, it’s at +2z already, in line with prior highs. ETF flows into small cap ETFs vs. the broader universe are neutral, though not as bearish as they were heading into the July rally, while HF net exp to Size factor is biased more towards Large on a multi-year basis, but not particularly so on a 12m basis.

• Momentum tends to underperform in the 10d leading up to the election (and continues to decline on average in 3m post-election), but its performance has been quite correlated to the wider market.

• HFs don’t appear to be running material net exposure to Momentum, but flows have shown a bias towards selling laggards lately

* * *

Turning to Goldman Sachs, we find a similar bias. As we noted last week, a Republican Sweep Scenario, has emerged as one of the bank’s preferred trades ahead of the elections. This is how Goldman put it:

Long our Republican Policy Pair (GSP24REP), consisting of long Republican Policy Outperformers (GS24REPL, ex-commods version is GS24RLXC) vs short Republican Policy Underperformers (GS24REPS)

• Buy GS24REPL 20Dec24 107% / 117% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 15% delta. 23 iv. Max loss premium paid.
• Buy GS24RLXC 20Dec24 108% / 118% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 16% delta. 25 iv. Max loss premium paid.

As shown below, the Goldman Republican victory pair trade discussed above just hit an all time high.

Decomposed into its constituents indexes, we find that the Republican Victory basket just hit an all time high, while the Democrat Victory basket is back to Biden levels.

In a new report from Goldman FICC vice president Vincent Mistretta (available here to pro subscribers), the trader confirms what we have said, namely that “positioning in markets leans toward Trump-win expressions. That has been the case since even before the recent run up in betting market odds for Trump.”  To help its clients, the bank has come up with a dashboard enumerating these aforementioned preconceived notions, and some trades that should perform well in scenarios that feel under-positioned, underappreciated or are anti-consensus.

GS Trading Views:

• Anshul Sehgal (Co-Head of Global Interest Rate Products Trading & Head of US Interest Rate Products) – Don’t have strong views or a robust framework for the election. It’s a binary event, and unclear what the policies/implications will be either way. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile. The market is pricing a 20bp breakeven move over the election, which seems a bit high, but not so high that you want to be short that convexity over the event. If you have a Republican sweep scenario, the night of the market probably doesn’t move a lot – it’s rates higher, risk assets higher initially, largely because what you would likely expect is that the Trump tax cuts get extended and there may well be more fiscal coming. We think the right area of the curve to be short is 2y2y. On Harris victory with divided Congress, we expect the curve to initially bull steepen, and for risk assets to trade weaker – which we would view as an opportunity to set up belly shorts.
• Mark Salib/Fernando Alvarado Aguilar (FX Trading):  Many clients are long USDCNH via risk reversals to position for a possible Trump presidency, as there isn’t a strong case for USDCNH to depreciate significantly from here. We also like AUDJPY or USDJPY topside on a Trump win. On a potential Harris win we think USDMXN downside is one of the best trades, with favorable entry levels after the recent squeeze higher amid buying from all client types this week, including hedge funds to position for a possible Trump win (especially given Trump’s comments throughout the campaign on implementing tariffs) as well as CTA and real money buying. In a Harris scenario we think EURUSD may rally around 1.5%, but think the moves would be larger in USDMXN and would prefer to express the trade there.
• Shawn Tuteja/Joseph Clyne (Equities Derivatives Trading/Index Trading) – Among a host of macro factors, we think that the run up in stocks, the collapse in implied vols, and the outperformance of RUT over NDX are partially due to the recent uptick in Trump odds, and a reversion of that move could reverse all three trends. Generally, we like owning year-end upside in SPX on a 12 vol handle which we think can carry flat/positive through the election while having spot up vol up beta on any sustained rally. On the sector side, we’ve seen the “Trump trades” from 2016 start to work, as this last leg higher in SPX has been driven by regional banks (KRE), large-cap banks (XLF), and energy. We’ve seen this buying come at the expense of AI in the past week or so. Interestingly, we’ve gotten a lot of questions from clients in the past 24 hours on best ways to “fade a Republican sweep,” thinking the odds and market pricing have run too far on this.
• Nick Bartal (Oil Products Trading) – There is currently little positioning in oil directly related to the election. The conflict in the Middle East has shaken a short/low positioned oil market into having length. However, the consensus still remains that the oil balance will be heavy in 2025, which led to the short positioning coming into the Israel/Iran conflict rally in early October. While little direct positioning surrounding the election exists, a Trump victory would likely be day 1 bullish for oil, as he may strengthen sanctions on Iran.

Much more in the Goldman note available to pro subscribers.

* * *

Taking a quick look at UBS, the bank has its own thematic pair trade, and writes that the recent surge in the “Republican Sweep” basket supported the S&P 500 rallying to an all-time high. Indeed, as shown below, the UBS Republican Win basket has trounced the Democrat Win having closed higher for 14 consecutive days! Also, UBS notes that the dramatic ascent in dollar has largely been driven by Chinese Yuan weakness thanks to the surge the Republican Sweep theme.

Elsewhere, in a note from UBS trader Michael Romano, he writes that “the UBS Republican vs. Democrat election pair trade is up 15% month to date to fresh highs in virtually a straight line, suggesting the market has largely priced former President Donald Trump’s victory.” Romano adds that “the election repricing, driven primarily by banks and solar, coincided with a growth re-pricing following a strong payrolls and strong earnings, making it less clear whether the recent moves are election or growth driven.”

His conclusion: “While the end result is the same, i.e. banks higher, cyclicals/consumer/growth oriented stocks higher, the more the repricing was driven by an actual growth re-pricing, the more upside there still is on a Trump win. As most of the moves followed bank earnings, with strong follow-through on consumer, my money is on a lot more upside to come on a Trump win.“

* * *

By now the big picture should be clear: whether due to his surge in online betting markets, or simply because Kamala’s honeymoon is dead and buried, there has been a rush of sentiment – by people who put money where their mouths – into the Trump Victory/Republican sweep camps, which also largely explains why stocks continue to make new all time highs day after day. However, if one takes a step back and asks a more neutral question without assuming the outcome, such as How will markets react to different US election outcomes?

To help with the answer, we go to a recent note from Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos (available to pro subscribers), who took recently published Deutsche Bank Research economics estimates of the likely impact of different election outcomes and translated them in to a market reaction across asset classes with a specific focus on FX. The table is intended to capture the immediate market reaction to year-end rather than the long-term impact. Below are DB’s four main conclusions:

• There is large variance of opinion on the likely market and growth outcomes within the DB team. This largely stems from uncertainty on three fronts: the fiscal outcomes in the event of divided government, the extent to which tariff policy is applied, the medium-term effects of supply side policies relating to regulation, immigration and energy. Even with full certainty on tariff policy for example, the countervailing growth-inflation impact of a negative supply shock creates great ambivalence.
• The largest variation in fiscal policy and growth outcomes is likely under a Trump administration: a red sweep would likely lead to the largest deficits while divided government could lead to the smallest deficits via the revenue impact of tariffs. By extension, a Trump victory has the most potential to generate the largest market moves in both directions in bond markets.
• The largest variation in relative growth differentials between the US and the rest of the world is likely under a Trump versus Harris administration, irrespective of the Congressional outcome, due to tariff policy. By extension, the FX market outcome is more clear cut than the bond market in the event of a Trump victory.
• We see the most bullish dollar outcome as a red sweep and the most bearish dollar outcome on a blue sweep, but the magnitude of the moves is likely larger in the former. There is also likely to be a large degree of variation in market response across different currency pairs: we see the dollar rising across all currency pairs in a red sweep. We see the dollar strong but FX carry trades as most likely to suffer in a Trump victory without Congress. Asia FX is likely to rally the most in the event of a Harris victory without Congress, while the broadest dollar losses would likely be in a Blue Sweep, albeit more limited than the dollar gains in a Red Sweep. We see short EUR/CAD and long MXN/ZAR as the two most asymmetric trades in FX heading in to the election.

Much more int he full notes from JPMorgan, Goldman, UBS and Deutsche Bank