Oil prices dipped very marginally today (with WTI holding above $70), down for the fourth day in a row as traders focused on an uncertain demand outlook – particularly from China, the world’s largest crude importer.

Additionally, traders have “largely priced in the Middle East tensions,” and the base-case scenario for many of them is that there will be a limited attack on Iranian energy facilities, if any, from Israel, Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told MarketWatch.

However, “the fact is that we are looking at a situation where two countries are attacking each other directly,” he added.

“[It] is a very serious situation because currently the U.S. is very much mediating the matter and tensions are incredibly high on both sides.”

“On the demand side, market participants are looking for clearer signals regarding China’s fiscal policy, as uncertainties about its economic recovery affect oil-demand expectations,” said Christopher Tahir, senior market strategist at Exness, in emailed comments.

“Both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency have lowered their forecasts for global oil-demand growth in 2024, mainly due to expected changes in China’s consumption,” he noted.

For now, the recent hurricanes are playing havoc with any analysis of the real-time supply/demand regime based on API/DOE data.

API

• Crude -1.58mm (+1.9mm exp)

• Cushing +410k

• Gasoline -5.93mm (-2.0mm exp)

• Distillates -2.67mm (-2.2mm exp)

After the large gasoline draw the prior week (and big crude build), the effect of Hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to ripple through physical energy markets. API reports major product draws and a surprise crude draw (build expected) last week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering just above $70 ahead of the API print and rallied into the green for the day after the print…

From a price perspective, Zaye Capital Markets’ Aslam believes oil is very much back to “normal fundamentals,” with the Chinese demand equation influencing the market.

“So in the absence of any serious geopolitical tension, the path of least resistance is skewed to the downside,” he said.

Tomorrow (a day late due to the Columbus Day holiday), we will get the official weekly data on US production, demand, and inventories.

VIX remains ‘sticky’ above 20… even as stocks manage gains…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-term vol market is anticipating some movement tomorrow around the retail sales print (likely to be a blow-out number according to BofA), then some calm before the storm of the election outcome and the FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

And while on the topic of the election, during the past 12 days, the market has seemed “very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.”

Source: Bloomberg

The former Soros money manager predicted that it’s “extremely unlikely” that Democrats will gain control of Congress even if Harris were to win the presidency.

If there were a so-called blue sweep, he said, equities may be troubled for three to six months.

He also said that a red sweep is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”

Since the Trump-Harris debate, stocks confirm Druck’s views, shifting sharply in favor of a Trump victory (to a new high today)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, Small Caps outperformed once again (amid another big shot squeeze and strength in financials). Nasdaq ended the day unchanged (ASML worries continues to weigh)…

Another day, another short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq underperperformed Russell 2000 once again, pulling that ratio down to the lower end of its channel from the last year…

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley surged higher today on earnings, catching up to Wells Fargo. Citi remains the biggest loser…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower across the curve today, but only modestly (1-2bps). The long-end continues to outperform on the week (notably curve flattening)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield slid to 4.00% and found support there today…

Source: Bloomberg

2025 rate-cut expectations are rising once again (now back to pre-payrolls levels) while 2024 expectations remain more hawkish…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit spreads remain ridiculously tight – both relative to equity risk as well as relative to historical cycles…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar pushed higher once again – reaching its highest since August 2nd’s payrolls puke…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite the dollar strength, gold rallied up to a new closing record high…

Source: Bloomberg

That’s quite a ‘decoupling’ between gold and the greenback…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continues to rip (Trump victory?), topping $68,000 today for the first time since July…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices trod water today, with WTI holding just above $70.00 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, USA sovereign risk has surged to its highest in a year…

Source: Bloomberg

What is the market worrying about?

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning about the rising tide of public debt in countries across the globe, with the United States standing out due to its persistent fiscal deficits and mounting spending pressures.

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, released on Oct. 15, projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion in 2024, equal to about 93 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), and could approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. The United States, in particular, faces significant risks if fiscal policies are not adjusted urgently.

The report emphasizes that countries, including the United States, need to address debt risks with carefully crafted fiscal strategies.

It warns that debt levels could be worse than anticipated due to large spending pressures, sizeable unidentified debt, and overly optimistic debt projections.

Unidentified debt, which refers to liabilities that do not appear explicitly in budget documents—such as contingent liabilities, losses at federally-owned enterprises like the U.S. Postal Service, and other off-balance-sheet obligations—poses a significant risk to debt sustainability, according to the IMF.

“There are good reasons to believe that future debt levels could be higher than currently projected,” the report’s executive summary states, highlighting that actual debt-to-GDP ratios three years ahead tend to be about 6 percentage points higher than originally forecasted, on average.

The IMF attributes the potential underestimation of debt levels to several factors, including a political climate increasingly favoring higher government spending. This spending is being driven by concerns around security, an aging population, and the push to invest in green transitions.

“Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and containing debt is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability,” the report urges.

In a related blog post titled “Global Public Debt Is Probably Worse Than It Looks,” IMF economists assert that current efforts to curb debt growth are insufficient. Delays in fiscal actions, they argue, will lead to even higher costs and greater risks.

“[E]xperience shows that high debt and lack of credible fiscal plans can trigger adverse market reaction, constraining room to maneuver in the face of turbulence,” the economists wrote, emphasizing the need for proactive measures such as paring back spending.

The IMF’s analysis shows that planned fiscal adjustments—such as reducing spending by 1 percent of GDP over six years—are insufficient to stabilize debt. Instead, a cumulative tightening of 3.8 percent of GDP is needed to significantly cut debt levels, the economists contend, with the effort required in the United States being “substantially greater.”

Without substantial fiscal adjustments, U.S. debt will continue on an unsustainable path, the report warns. The country faces mounting spending demands, largely due to health care costs, aging populations, and defense needs, all of which are exacerbated by growing geopolitical tensions.

The IMF identifies reforming mandatory spending programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, as a crucial step. These programs account for a large and inflexible share of the U.S. budget, and reforming them could help rein in expenditures. Besides spending cuts, the IMF suggests that the United States could raise revenues by raising taxes or removing tax exemptions.

The IMF’s newly developed “debt-at-risk” framework—a tool used to estimate potential debt outcomes under different economic conditions—indicates that U.S. public debt could rise sharply under adverse scenarios.

Chapter 1 of the IMF report notes that, for “systemically important advanced economies such as the United States, in which the primary deficit is the largest driver of debt-at-risk, three-year-ahead debt-at-risk is estimated to exceed 150 percent of GDP, 20 percentage points higher than the baseline debt projection in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook.”

Stronger fiscal governance is also essential, according to the IMF, which describes it as “key to mitigating the buildup of unidentified debt and containing debt vulnerabilities.” Countries with better fiscal governance—marked by budget transparency and adherence to fiscal rules—tend to have lower levels of unidentified debt, even during times of financial stress.

The Biden-Harris administration misled the public with phony FBI crime statistics, pushing the narrative that far-left policies were actually making America safer. Weeks later, those numbers were “revised,” revealing a shocking truth: a 2.1% decrease in US violent crime in 2022 was actually a 4.5% increase! 

What a stunning revision – and not so shocking for readers. 

There it is: FBI “revised” violent crime data, now reporting that instead of a 2.1% drop in violent crime in 2022, it was actually a 4.5% increase. https://t.co/Bvbg0wKy1A pic.twitter.com/h6nfjRRlUb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2024

Biden-Harris officials gaslighted the hell out of Americans. Fortunately, this time around, very few folks believe any propaganda that is spewed by woke radicals in the White House and or their MSM cheerleaders. 

https://t.co/cT6DmJrxpT https://t.co/RU9AXBDDhD

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) September 24, 2024

This brings us to the current crime crisis spreading across certain New York City boroughs, like stage four cancer, where armed illegal alien kids are brazenly robbing citizens and tourists alike.

“We’re talking 20 individuals arrested a total of 50 times… and we have a mix-match of crimes embedded in those. We have anywhere from snatches to what I call wolfpack robberies, where anywhere between five and 15 individuals surround tourists and take their property. We have gunpoint robberies, knifepoint robberies. And these individuals are out, and it’s concerning,” NYPD Detective Bureau Asst. Chief Jason Savino told Fox News on Tuesday, adding these kids are connected with Venezuela’s dangerous Tren de Aragua prison gang.

Stunning admission by the NYPD:

20 Venezuelan gang members in NYC are behind 50 recent 42nd street robberies.

Every single one is still on the street. pic.twitter.com/U5yFIMWJxE

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 15, 2024

The New York Post reported earlier this week that some of these migrant gangsters are as young as 11 and being housed in the former Roosevelt Hotel in NYC.

Tren de Aragua members are recruiting these kids straight from the migrant hotels funded by the government. 

“Young kids are the primary target for recruitment of gangs,” a Department of Homeland Security source told NYPost on Tuesday, adding, “Their young, moldable, vulnerable and eager to please minds are easier to lure in than those who have matured more in life.”

The source continued, “Wanting to please a male father figure is something is something all young boys are eager to do,” adding, “They jump at the opportunity to feel involved with something that seems important.”

Here’s more from a separate NYPost report:

Law enforcement sources said gang members hid among the millions of asylum seekers who crossed the US border with Mexico since 2022, then scattered throughout the country.

…

In New York, gang members exploited the city’s migrant shelter system, running robbery crews, as well as trafficking drugs, guns and sex workers under the noses of private security guards. according to sources.

Tren de Aragua has become such a significant concern that leaked US Army documents estimate more than 5,000 of these gangsters, some of which are armed, are running amok nationwide.

Biden-Harris rolling out the red carpet to illegal aliens has created perfect conditions for trafficking of all sorts, from drugs to labor to prostitution.

Americans are learning very quickly that Democrats importing the third world (many of which are unvetted) into the first world has tremendous consequences…  

It may be time for folks to avoid these ‘sanctuary zones’.

Armed Venezuelan Prison Gang In Denver Highlights Map Of US Sanctuary Zones To Avoid Amid Migrant Crisis https://t.co/EzR9xqGDTp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2024

We’ll leave you with a dire message from ‘Ernie’ the truck driver from Charleroi, Pennsylvania, a small blue-collar town, who spoke at a recent Trump rally and described the migrant invasion as “nation-killing.”

This trucker is from Charleroi, a small PA town flooded with Haitians by Kamala

His message at the Trump rally: pic.twitter.com/aXe8TwvPeB

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 23, 2024

Do yourself a favor this holiday season: Avoid NYC and, in fact, boycott sanctuary towns. Spend your money elsewhere. 

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Nevada’s governor on Oct. 15 said he supports female volleyball players refusing to participate in a game because their opponent has a male who identifies as a female on their team.

Female players from the University of Nevada, Reno said earlier this month that they would only play against San Jose State University if the game was restricted to women.

Officials from the University of Nevada later said that they intend “to move forward with the match as scheduled” and that the players’ position does not represent the university’s position.

The school said that Nevada’s Constitution and law ensure equality of rights.

“The student athletes at the University of Nevada, Reno have determined that they do not want to play against San Jose State, and I wholeheartedly respect the decision of the players,” Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo said in a statement posted on social media. “No student athlete should ever be pressured to play a game where they don’t feel safe—period.”

Nevada Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony previously expressed support for the team.

Officials also said no players will be disciplined if they do not participate in the match, which is slated to take place on Oct. 26.

The female volleyball teams at Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State, and Wyoming previously chose not to play against San Jose State.

The governors of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming have said they support the forfeits.

“I applaud @BoiseState for working within the spirit of my Executive Order, the Defending Women’s Sports Act,” Idaho Gov. Brad Little said in September.

“We need to ensure player safety for all of our female athletes and continue the fight for fairness in women’s sports.”

According to a legal complaint filed in federal court, one of San Jose State’s volleyball players is a male.

The player, Blaire Fleming, told Brooke Slusser, another member of the team, earlier this year that he was born male, according to a Sept. 23 filing. Slusser is one of the plaintiffs in the case.

Officials with the school later told the team that members should not talk about Fleming’s sex with anyone outside the team, the filing states.

If members did not comply, “things would go badly” for the members, according to the complaint.

The legal case is against groups and individuals including the National Collegiate Athletics Association, which in 2022 allowed males to participate in women’s sports.

A spokeswoman for San Jose State University (SJSU) did not respond to a request for comment.

In a recent statement, the school said: “SJSU student athletes are in full compliance with NCAA and Mountain West rules and regulations. We remain committed to supporting all of our student athletes—including their mental health and physical safety, both on and off the court—during this challenging time. We continue to work to ensure their ability to participate in an inclusive, fair, and respectful environment.”

Citadel founder Ken Griffin has gradually withdrawn from Chicago’s real estate market after relocating his hedge fund from the lawless city run by far-left Democrats to Miami in 2022. In addition to violent crime, an unfavorable tax environment was another primary driver for Griffin in moving his hedge fund and family to the Sunshine State. 

Bloomberg cited Zillow data showing Griffin went under contract for his 38th-floor penthouse at 9 West Walton. He never lived in the 7,500-square-foot (670-square-meter) condo, marketed as unfinished. The condo was listed 89 days ago in July for $11 million, or half of what the billionaire paid in 2017.

“The first time ever offered- This true penthouse at Chicago’s most distinguished address, No. 9 Walton! This a one-of-a-kind and exceptional opportunity to create a 7500+ square feet dream home, plus the added exclusivity of a private 39th-floor interior space and rooftop pool accessed by an in-unit private elevator,” listing broker Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty wrote in the description of the condo. 

Bloomberg noted that Griffin, ranked 36th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, has been trying to offload other residential real estate properties:

Griffin’s attempts to offload his Chicago real estate have faced challenges in a market where prices lag behind cities like Miami and New York. He previously sold properties in the Park Tower and Waldorf Astoria, each at losses exceeding $3 million. At No. 9 Walton, Griffin spent a total of nearly $59 million on the penthouse he’s now selling and three other units in the largest residential real estate transaction in Chicago’s history.

Taking a multi-million dollar hit to escape an imploding metro area is likely well worth it for Griffin. In 2021, during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, the hedge fund manager warned that Chicago would be limited to “years, not decades” unless violent crime was properly addressed. 

“It’s becoming ever more difficult to have this as our global headquarters, a city which has so much violence,” Griffin said at the time, adding, “I mean Chicago is like Afghanistan, on a good day, and that’s a problem.”

By 2022, he announced he was moving Citadel’s headquarters to Miami in a multiyear process. In a letter to employees at the time, he wrote that he personally moved to Florida—a state that doesn’t collect personal income. He noted that Florida has a better corporate environment than Chicago. 

So if all the rich people leave Chicago and dump real estate in the town, who will pay for the soaring, unfunded pension debt of the unionized public workforce? We have a hint: the suckers that are still there. Good luck. This must be the ‘utopia’ Democrats have been promising… 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During speeches Monday, both Kamala Harris and Tim Walz claimed that president Trump wants to use the military against Americans who disagree with him.

Harris rolled VT of multiple mashed together clips of Trump talking about the threat of the “enemy within,” then spliced in a clip of him talking about radical leftists.

Harris then claimed that Trump wants to use the military against “journalists whose stories he doesn’t like, election officials who refuse to cheat…for him,” and “Judges who insist on following the law instead of bending to his will.”

She then stated that Trump “is increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is out for unchecked power and control over your lives,” adding “he wants to send the military after American citizens.”

Vice President Harris plays a montage of Trump calling to deploy the military on Americans who don’t support him: “A second Trump term is a huge risk for America. He is increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is out for unchecked power and control over your lives” pic.twitter.com/BtnTTfiMT4

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 15, 2024

If she had played any of the footage in context, it would be clear that Trump is talking about violent criminal illegal alien gang members, some of whom have been convicted for murdering Americans.

More cherry-picked, out of context clips to mislead your base of course. Do you ppl honestly think he would call for military action against American citizens? Put your TDS aside for a second and think rationally. Maybe look up a few of his speeches and get the context before…

— Watsername (@chronicparent) October 15, 2024

Notice she couldn’t play a full sentence of his. Because she can only take him out of context. Big “good people on both sides” vibes here

— Mauifever (@bmower1) October 15, 2024

Walz repeated the exact same lie about Trump siccing the military on Americans to a group of supporters, telling them “Just so you’re clear about that, that’s you. That’s what he’s talking about. This is not a mythical thing.”

Tim Walz peddles a disgusting lie that President Trump will use the U.S. Army against his political opponents: “That’s you, that’s what he’s talking about.”

This is reckless, dangerous rhetoric. Tim should be ASHAMED of himself. pic.twitter.com/19SLsWtHMI

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 14, 2024

Is it any wonder that their gullible supporters are terrified that Trump is going to throw them into gulags?

A caller asks Kamala Harris “Please respond to Trump’s claim that he’s going to use the Illegal Alien Act of 1798 to round up immigrants… He’s going to use this law to put anyone who doesn’t look white in camps and I’m scared.”

Unless you are an illegal alien gang member, you… pic.twitter.com/VSBFeobGe1

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 15, 2024

Wow. And Harris has the temerity to accuse Trump of running on fear.

As commentator Kyle Becker explains in the following post (click through for the full text), this is a complete contrived hoax using out of context clips.

Trump used the phrase “the enemy within” to also describe those seeking to disrupt, violently or otherwise, the election on November 5th. It was in this context that he said the National Guard or the military could be used, to secure the election.

The Enemies Within Hoax: Democrats Cherry Pick Soundbites to Frame Dangerous Narrative

Both Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the past 48 hours have attacked Donald Trump over the former president allegedly wanting to sick the military on his political enemies and put radical… pic.twitter.com/dLan8Dgp0v

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) October 15, 2024

Let me add: This hoax is just stupid.

Why would a presidential candidate threaten to send the military against potential voters in the 2024 election?

Our politics are just crazy. And that’s due to depraved Democratic politicians spreading lies about their opponents rather than…

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) October 15, 2024

This latest hoax is up there with the “very fine people” and “suckers and losers” lies.

“very fine people” ❌
“suckers & losers” ❌

“enemies within” 🤡

As per usual, they can’t sell their candidate so they have to try to discredit Trump with fear-mongering and/or lies

— Jocular Josh 🇺🇸 (@lifeasjosh) October 15, 2024

Harris and Walz are essentially parroting the propaganda of their own media mouthpieces such as Rachel Maddow, Democrat elites including Hillary Clinton, and TDS suffering lunatics such as Michael Cohen, all of whom have made these claims about the military and suggested Trump is going to throw them in detention camps.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Israel is trying to show its powerful backer Washington that it is taking urgent action over the spiraling humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

On Tuesday the Biden administration submitted a letter to the Israel government warning that the US could withdraw key aspects of US military aid to Israel if it doesn’t reign in the devastating humanitarian situation in Gaza. As we noted, like with prior such ‘warnings’ (this isn’t the first), the message seems more timed for the November election

Israel on Wednesday has announced that fifty trucks loaded with supplies have entered northern Gaza—much of which was supplied by Jordan.

A statement from the Israeli Defense Ministry agency overseeing the supplies said that “50 trucks carrying humanitarian aid — including food, water, medical supplies and shelter equipment provided by Jordan — were transferred today to northern Gaza through the Allenby Bridge Crossing and the Erez West Crossing as part of our commitment to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza.”

Israel said that “will continue to facilitate and ease the entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza.” The Israeli military has stood accused of blocking aid, including trucks with American-supplied support.

“Blinken and Austin raise alarm in the letter that the amount of aid entering Gaza has dropped by 50 percent compared to assurances provided in March and April,” The Hill among others has noted.

The letter, issued by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is being widely considered the ‘strongest’ written warning by the US thus far.

“We are now writing to underscore the US government’s deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, and seek urgent and sustained actions by your government this month to reverse this trajectory,” it said.

“We are particularly concerned that recent actions by the Israeli government – including halting commercial imports, denying or impeding nearly 90% of humanitarian movements between northern and southern Gaza in September, continuing burdensome and excessive dual-use restrictions, and instituting new vetting and onerous liability and customs requirements for humanitarian staff and shipments – together with increased lawlessness and looting – are contributing to an accelerated deterioration in the conditions in Gaza,” the letter laid out.

The failure to secure a ceasefire in #Gaza, has caused violence to now spread in #Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East. The violence has to stop.

Demand the UK government helps to secure a permanent #CeasefireNOW at https://t.co/AB2WJngyuj pic.twitter.com/wHj0D49F5Q

— Oxfam (@oxfamgb) October 16, 2024

It emphasized that Israel “must, starting now and within 30 days” act on a series of measures to rapidly boost aid or else this will “have implications for US policy”. This is being taken as a threat that the US could begin restricting or else throttling defense aid deliveries to Tel Aviv.

Israel has since affirmed that it has received the letter and said that the country “takes this matter seriously” and intends to “address the concerns raised” with its American ally.

As soon as polling came out showing that Donald Trump is doing better with black voters than any Republican since 1960, Democrats went into panic mode – wheeling out Obama to scold black men into voting for Kamala Harris, while Harris launched a black pandering campaign – offering weed, loans, and protection from crypto scams (what?).

Consider that in 2012, President Obama dominated the black vote by an 85-point margin. Today, Harris is up by just 54 points. The numbers are even worse among black men age 18 to 45: Obama won by 81, and Harris is up 41. Among all black men and women, Harris is poised to have the lowest share of the black vote since John F. Kennedy faced Richard Nixon in 1960.

Now, Harris says reparations are on the table!

During a Tuesday interview with Charlamagne Tha God’s “The Breakfast Club,” grassroots group founder Zeek Williams asked Harris about her stance on reparations and how she plans to address issues within the black community.

“With all that black Americans have been through and contribute to the success of America, I feel that there should be an in depth investigation or evaluation of the lack of resources and current living conditions in black communities nationwide. My question to you is, what’s your stance on reparations?” Williams asked.

“We all know that America became great off the backs of free black labor. How progressive are you on making it a priority and righting America’s wrongs,” he continued. “It’s understood that you are running for president for all people of America, asking for specifics for black communities doesn’t mean don’t do for others, but black Americans are heavily asked to vote Democrat in every election for over half a century, with very little in return. What are your plans to address these very important issues and change that narrative?“

To which Harris replied:

“So to your point, yes, I am running to be a president for all Americans. That being said, I do have clear eyes about the disparities that exist and the context in which they exist, meaning history to your point,” adding “So my agenda, well, first of all, on the point of reparations, it has to be studied. There’s no question about that. And I’ve been very clear about that position.“

Watch:

Vice President Kamala Harris says she’s open to using taxpayer’s money to pay racial reparations: “It has to be studied, there’s no question about that.”

She adds: “In terms of my immediate plan … as it relates to the economy … I grew up in the middle class” pic.twitter.com/HPjdHSgB29

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) October 15, 2024

When Harris was a senator from California, she co-sponsored a bill which would create a federal commission to examine slavery reparations and provide guidance on the issue. 

Meanwhile…

Charlamagne (@cthagod) uploaded his entire audio town hall with Kamala Harris to YouTube late last night…

His subscribers are absolutely demolishing Kamala in the comment section.

Over 15K comments calling her out for being the worst VP in history.

The more people hear from… pic.twitter.com/Bgag6JR9Rl

— Alex Bruesewitz 🇺🇸 (@alexbruesewitz) October 16, 2024

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Most Beautiful Word in the Dictionary

Donald Trump sat down for an hour long interview with Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait yesterday. The conversation was mostly centerd on the economy, and Trump played the hits early by describing ‘tariff’ as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. Trump’s comment came in response to a question about the impact of his policies on the federal debt in light of analysis from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, which claimed that a second Trump Presidency would grow the debt by $7.5 trillion whereas Kamala Harris’ program would add $3.5 trillion.

Under Trump Mk II “we’re going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it” has become “we’re going to build a tariff wall, and everyone else is going to pay for it”. Trump reprised the Laffer Curve by suggesting that he was the only candidate with a plan for growth and that stronger growth, alongside tariffs, would be sufficient to pay for sweeping tax cuts as companies seek to relocate production inside the United States.

Q. Your proposed policies would wreck the economy, and lead to higher inhalation and $7.5 trillion in debt. Even the conservative WSJ says it.

Trump: “What does the Wall Street Journal know? They’ve been wrong about everything. So have you.” pic.twitter.com/UPHb2LObaS

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 15, 2024

To illustrate his point on the beauty of tariffs, Trump recounted a conversation he had with an auto executive where he claimed that large-scale automotive factory projects in Mexico had been abandoned once it became clear that Trump was running and was competitive in the race for the White House. “If I run this country, I’m going to put a one-hundred, two-hundred, one-thousand per cent tariff. They’re not going to sell one car into the United States.” The Mexican Peso promptly slumped after his comments.

Europe also came in for criticism with Trump complaining that Europeans treat America “very badly”. He pointed to how few Chevrolets and Fords are sold in Germany, while “millions” of Volkswagens, BMWs and Mercedes Benzs are a feature on American roads. Trump contended that high tariffs would force European automakers to relocate production to the USA, which seems timely given the Empire Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly fell to a reading of -11.9 yesterday from +11.5 in September.

No doubt the specter of (further) forced deindustrialisation from mercantilist trade policies will send a shiver down the spine of European industrialists. Especially in light of news yesterday that Dutch tech giant ASML’s stock experienced the sharpest 1-day drop in 26 years after missing third quarter sales estimates by almost 50%. The sharp fall for ASML bled over into prices for US chipmakers, helping the S&P500 to finish 0.75% lower on the day while the NASDAQ dropped 1%.

While former President Trump was talking tariffs with Bloomberg, Vice President Harris gave an extended radio interview with Charlamagne Tha God. Polling data suggests the Harris campaign has been losing ground in recent days, particularly with male voters, and Nate Silver’s election outcome prediction model now sees the race as a 50-50 dead heat. Betting markets began pricing in Trump momentum somewhat earlier, and now indicate that Trump is most likely to be the next President.

Harris’s interview with Charlamagne Tha God was likely intended to target the important African American male demographic and covered off on issues like Harris’ support for the legalization of recreational marijuana, whether or not Donald Trump is a fascist (Harris says he is) and, sensationally, the concept of reparation payments for African Americans to which Harris says “it has to be studied. There’s no question.” Presumably the cost of reparations payments are not factored into the CBO’s $3.5trn estimate of the impact of Harris’ policies on the national debt.

Kamala says she’s open to taxpayer funded reparations for slavery. Every interview she does is a disaster. pic.twitter.com/kq51kHSlK2

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 15, 2024

As we approach the November 5th election date the Treasuries curve has trimmed the steepening that had been a feature in September as long yields jumped following the Fed’s 50bps rate cut. Recent flattening has been mainly due to the rising short end yields as exuberance over potential rate cuts collided with higher than expected payrolls and CPI figures over the last two weeks. Yields finished lower across the board yesterday with the short end continuing to outperform.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly picked up on recent strong data by intimating that the Fed could skip a cut at one of the two remaining policy meetings this year. That stands in contrast to clear forward guidance from Jerome Powell at the NABE Conference in late September, where he suggested that the Fed was likely to cut by 25bps at each meeting. Trump remains unimpressed with the Fed Chair’s command of monetary policy, telling Bloomberg that “it’s the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month and you say ‘let’s say flip a coin’ and everybody talks about you like you’re a God.”

While bets on the pace of cuts in the US are pared back, the inflation pulse seems to be fading fast almost everywhere else. The final read of September CPI in France saw the year-on-year EU harmonized figure revised down 1-tick to 1.4%, Canadian September CPI undershot expectations by two-ticks to sit at 1.6% y-o-y (lifting the odds of a 50bp cut from the BOC next week) and New Zealand’s Q3 CPI also printed a little softer than expected to take the annual headline rate to just 2.2%.

When asked whether the soft CPI figures could prompt the RBNZ to cut by 75bps in November, Assistant Governor Karen Silk studiously avoided answering the question.

‘Tariff’ might be the most beautiful word in the dictionary, but in financial markets the most beautiful words are still ‘rate cuts!’