Businessman Elon Musk is touring Pennsylvania until Monday to stump for former President Donald Trump, where he’ll give talks to votors across the state.

“Tomorrow night through Monday, I will be giving a series of talks throughout Pennsylvania,” Musk wrote early Wednesday on X. “If you’d like to attend one of my talks, there’s no attendance fee. You just need to have signed our petition supporting free speech & right to bear arms & have voted in this election.“

“To clarify, you need have voted in Pennsylvania,” he added.

Tomorrow night through Monday, I will be giving a series of talks throughout Pennsylvania.

If you’d like to attend one of my talks, there’s no attendance fee. You just need to have signed our petition supporting free speech & right to bear arms & have voted in this election. https://t.co/2cjdY7oPtB

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 16, 2024

Of note, the deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state, is Oct. 21.

🚨 #BREAKING: Elon Musk has just announced he will be touring Pennsylvania from tonight until Monday, giving talks to voters all across the state

This is HUGE!@elonmusk being on the ground here is the Kamala campaign’s worst nightmare.

In order to attend, you must be have… pic.twitter.com/EywVI2egdf

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) October 16, 2024

X via Nick Sortor

Meanwhile, Musk has donated nearly $75 million to his America PAC, and was the sole donor of $74,950,020 according to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

The PAC set a goal to get 1 million voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendments by Oct. 21.

“Sign our petition in defense of YOUR Constitutional rights to Free Speech & Bear Arms!” the PAC wrote on X earlier this month. “For each registered swing state voter you refer that signs the petition, you get $47!”

As the Epoch Times notes further, Musk is the world’s wealthiest person, with a net worth of $246.8 billion, according to the Forbes real-time billionaires list.

He announced the launch of the America PAC back in May, stating at the time that it was created to “support candidates who believe in the core values of America.”

According to its mission statement, America PAC was created to support six key values: secure borders, sensible spending, safe cities, a fair justice system, self-protection, and free speech.

The pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc, has spent $253,970,695 this election cycle, and the pro-Harris super PAC, Fast Forward USA, has spent $263,417,307 according to the non-profit.

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearInvestigations,

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.

But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. 

RCI discovered the change through a cryptic reference on the FBI website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” But there is no mention that the numbers increased. One only sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime data and comparing it to the file released last year.

After the FBI released its new crime data in September, a USA Today headline read: “Violent crime dropped for third straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” 

It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers.

“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”

“It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistical research organization, told RCI.

The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment.

Extensive Revisions in Violent Crime Stats

The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?

Without the increase, the drop in violent crime in 2023 would have been less than half as large – only 1.6% instead of the reported drop of 3.5%.

The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.

The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report.

Unfortunately that is simply not true.

The argument made by Trump and challenged by the liberal media, is whether crime has increased under Biden. It has – and very dramatically – according to the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS annual survey. Here are the facts https://t.co/1IbAX0ZDhe

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 27, 2024

“The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’ unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of Justice Statistics – the Department of Justice’s actual statistical agency,” says Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021. 

Anderson said when he headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “We definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to a rise in violent crime.”

Many Crimes Are Unreported

Another problem with FBI crime data is its reliance on reported crimes. Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes brought to the police’s attention, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI only tracks reported incidents and this gap is so large, researchers argue that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data, they should clarify that it reflects “reported” crime, not give the impression that total crime is changing.

Nonreporting of crime doesn’t affect all crimes equally. Nonreporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft, insurance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data.

Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates, even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels. 

A half-century ago, the DOJ provided a total crime measure, including both reported and unreported crime. The results of the department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey, released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI data. 

The NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal experiences.

Instead of the FBI’s 3.5% drop in the reported violent crime rate in 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase in the reported violent crime rate. Even with the revised FBI numbers, in 2022, the FBI’s 4.5% increase pales in comparison to the NCVS’s 29.1% increase.

Over the past few years, the number of police officers has declined because of cuts in budgets and many retirements. One result is that police departments nationwide – from  Charlottesville and Henrico County, Va., to Chicago, Ill. and Olympia, Wash. – are no longer responding to calls unless the perpetrator is still there actively committing the crime. Instead of police coming out to investigate and take a report, residents in those jurisdictions can still go to the police station and wait in line to get a police report filled out. In addition, despite the widespread belief that calling 911 is enough to report a crime, the FBI officially doesn’t tally 911 calls. It only counts crimes when police make out an official report.

Other Data Show Sharper Rises in Crime

While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.

The increases shown by the NCVS during the Biden-Harris administration are by far the largest percentage increases over any three years, slightly more than doubling the previous record.

Comparing 2023 rates with 2019 pre-COVID violent crime rates, the FBI’s new 2023 data show virtually no improvement – just a 0.2% drop – while the NCVS shows a 19% increase over that period. But the news media didn’t cover the crime survey when it was released last month.

“With the media using the 2022 FBI data to tell us for a year that crime was falling, it is disappointing that there are no news articles correcting that misimpression,” Moody told RCI. “We will have to see whether the FBI later also revises the 2023 numbers.”

At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in 2022 … there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off.

Even as polls show that Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and the media are making it difficult to see how crime rates have changed over the last few years. A Gallup survey late last year found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that, by a 4.7-to-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March that “crime and violence” was Americans’ second biggest concern, after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI data to try to convince people that they were wrong.

“This FBI report is stunning because it now doesn’t state that violent crime in 2022 was much higher than it had previously reported, nor does it explain why the new rate is so much higher, and it issued no press release about this large revision,” said David Mustard, the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia who researches extensively on crime. “This lack of transparency harms the FBI’s credibility.”

John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and he lives in Missoula. He served as senior adviser for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy at the Justice Department.

It’s starting to feel like every single day the embrace of nuclear to power the future of data centers takes hold tighter. Just hours ago, it was Google inking a deal with Kairos Power for small modular reactors.

Today, it’s Amazon, putting on display why our “next AI trade” will generate obnoxious amounts of alpha in the coming years, as they commit to investing more than $500 million to develop small module reactors, according to CNBC. 

Amazon Web Services is launching three projects from Virginia to Washington State. AWS has partnered with Dominion Energy to explore building a small modular reactor (SMR) near the North Anna nuclear station in Virginia. SMRs, which produce no carbon emissions, have smaller footprints and faster construction times than traditional reactors.

CNBC writes that Virginia hosts nearly half of the U.S. data centers, with Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley” in Loudoun County handling 70% of the world’s internet traffic daily. 

Dominion Energy, meanwhile, supplies 3,500 megawatts to 452 data centers across Virginia, with most in Data Center Alley. Typical data centers require 30 megawatts or more, and Dominion is now receiving requests for 60 to 90 megawatts. It expects demand to grow by 85% in the next 15 years. AWS’s new SMRs are projected to add at least 300 megawatts of power to the region.

Matthew Garman, CEO of AWS said: “We see the need for gigawatts of power in the coming years, and there’s not going to be enough wind and solar projects to be able to meet the needs, and so nuclear is a great opportunity.”

“Also, the technology is really advancing to a place with SMRs where there’s going to be a new technology that’s going to be safe and that’s going to be easy to manufacture in a much smaller form,” he continued. ″These SMRs will be powering directly into the grid, so they’ll go to power everything, part of that is the data centers, but everything that is plugged into the grid will benefit.”

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin added: “Small modular nuclear reactors will play a critical role in positioning Virginia as a leading nuclear innovation hub. Amazon Web Services’ commitment to this technology and their partnership with Dominion is a significant step forward to meet the future power needs of a growing Virginia.”

Recall, on Monday, Google – picking up on what we discussed last week in “Google Turns To Nuclear To Power Its Data Centers” – announced plans to buy power from Kairos Power’s small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of a growing industry shift toward nuclear energy to meet rising data center demands. 

By purchasing energy from multiple SMRs, Google aims to send a strong market signal while supporting long-term commercialization.

This week, ZeroHedge favorite Oklo, a SMR company backed by Sam Altman, announced it had received a key approval from the U.S. Department of Energy for its Conceptual Safety Design Report (CSDR) for the Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), where it plans on building. Those shares are responding to the Amazon news this morning again, after already charging higher by almost 40% since last Monday. 

Separately, we also wrote at the beginning of this month that the U.S. had closed on a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec’s Palisades Nuclear Plant. The report at the time said that the Biden administration aims to triple U.S. nuclear power capacity as demand rises and climate concerns grow.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has also been urging for Three Mile Island to reopen as quickly as possible. Following Microsoft’s agreement to purchase power from the dormant nuclear plant, Shapiro urged regulators to prioritize the reactor’s connection to the electrical grid, according to Barron’s.

The latest news out of Amazon and Google provide substantial tail wind for our “Next AI Trade” which we laid out in April as our favorite long-term trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.

The stellar returns of the trade in 2024 so far are just the start: as more capital is allocated to “those who provide the electricity to those who sell the picks and shovels for the next gold rush”, the basket will blow away every other segment of the market, and the biggest winners will be not those who bet on the revolutionary technology that is AI, but those who backed something much more primitive: the electricity needed to power it.

While it’s true that not many Americans watch MSNBC’s Joy Reid and take her seriously (her show ‘The ReidOut’ is #14 on the list of most popular news commentary shows in the US according to viewership), she does remain a symbol of the woke left and her views often give us a glimpse into the collective hive mind of progressives.  Similar to women on shows like ‘The View’, Reid is a standard bearer for perpetually angry, post-menopausal cat ladies that do sadly tend to vote in large numbers. 

These are the same women coming out in droves to support Kamala Harris based purely on her gender and skin color.  They are the same women that supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 simply because they wanted a woman president and they didn’t care who it was.  And generally speaking it is these kinds of women that use shaming tactics as a means to control the people around them.  Their only source of power in life is to henpeck others into submission.

The problem for Harris is that childless cat ladies are not a large enough demographic to ensure a presidential win; she needs men to vote for her as well.  As many critics have pointed out, this is rather ironic given the fact that Democrats and leftist activists have spent the better part of the last decade calling masculinity a “toxic” and oppressive social disease that needs to be eliminated.  They have worked hard to demonize all men as potential rapists, misogynists, mass shooters and fascists.  Now, not surprisingly, progressive women want men to lift them out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.  

But they don’t want to admit they were wrong about men or apologize for their behavior and accusations, no.  That would be asking far too much.  Instead, they have turned to the same old shaming tactics they always use to get what they want.

This week Joy Reid suggested that Kamala Harris’ plunge in the polls is due in large part to a ‘global fascist phenomenon’ led by white males.  She also argues that pockets of ‘black and brown men’ are a part of this supposed fascist takeover.

Joy Reid completely loses it on air and is now claiming black and brown men voting for Trump are fascists

Keep it up, this is exactly why Kamala Harris is losing the male vote

The Democrat desperation is glorious

pic.twitter.com/tRp3Cyj9pN

— Drew Hernandez (@DrewHLive) October 15, 2024

The campaign to drag black voters back to the Democrat plantation continues.

Reid’s comments come not long after Barack Obama (also a henpecker) tried to shame black men into voting for Harris by accusing them of bias against her because she’s a woman.  As 2016 taught Americans, it’s foolish to blindly trust the polls and the election isn’t over until it’s over – That said, numerous indicators suggest that Harris does not inspire trust or optimism among most Americans. 

Minority voters including black men have been loudly explaining why they don’t like Harris, and her being a woman is rarely on their list of complaints.

Oh man. Black Americans are DONE with Barack Obama. Listen to black voters respond to Obama trying to shame them into voting for Kamala.

These responses are🔥🔥🔥

We can now officially call Obama’s smug speech the greatest political backfire of all time… pic.twitter.com/m0e0Weh3ub

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 14, 2024

Here’s what most American voters care about according to the surveys:  The failing economy and stagflation, mass immigration and open borders and foreign policy leading to WWIII.  That’s it.  It doesn’t matter if they are white, black, brown, man or woman, these are the issues that concern people the most.  Electing the first black woman president is irrelevant compared to these problems. 

Black male voters in particular are walking away from the political left, not because they are turning “fascist”, but because they’re finally waking up to the game being played with their futures.       

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The financial media frequently opines on what the daily gyrations of the VIX (implied volatility index) signal regarding investor sentiment. Despite how often it is quoted and discussed, many investors do not truly appreciate what implied volatility measures.

We take this opportunity to help you better understand implied volatility. Furthermore, we discuss other lesser-followed measures of implied volatility that help better assess whether implied VIX readings infer bullish or bearish sentiment. 

The timing of this article is essential as the VIX has been rising alongside the market in a non-typical fashion. With the presidential election in a few weeks, the Fed changing course on monetary policy, and Israel potentially attacking Iranian oil facilities, the increasing level of implied risk should not be shocking. Will the elevated VIX persist alongside the rising market, or will the market correct?

What Is The VIX

The VIX volatility index, aka the “Fear Index,” is a well-followed measure of investor sentiment. Many investors believe that an increase in the VIX indicates that market participants are growing concerned about the stock market. While that is often true, it is not always true.

The VIX uses the prices of many one-month calls and put options on the S&P 500, weighing them based on their time to expiration and the difference between the strike price and the current price of the S&P 500. Based on the prices, the expected variance of the S&P 500 is estimated. After some advanced math, the VIX value is provided and expressed as an annualized percentage. Furthermore, the VIX is quoted as a one-standard deviation change. In other words, there is a 68% probability the S&P 500 will stay within the VIX percentage.

For example, a VIX of 15 implies expected annual volatility of 15%. In this case, the options market expects, with 68% certainty, that the S&P 500 will trade in a 15% range from the current level over the next year.

The graph below puts the recent range in the VIX in context. It shows how much change is and was expected for the S&P 500 based on the current (22), highest (37), and lowest (12) levels of VIX over the past year. The ranges vary significantly based on the VIX.

The VIX defines what market participants, in aggregate, think the possible market range will be. However, it doesn’t determine whether the put or the call has a larger influence. Accordingly, it doesn’t disclose whether the market is speculatively betting more on the upper band of the range or whether investors are aggressively protecting against the lower band.

Fortunately, as we now discuss, other volatility measures shine additional light on market expectations.

Put Call Skew

Put call skew measures the difference between put and call option prices at various strike prices for the same index or asset. When the price of a put and call differs despite being equally distanced from the strike price and with identical expirations, skew exists. Skew simply measures if investors are paying more for calls or puts.

A lower skew means investors are more aggressively buying call options than put buyers are looking for protection. Conversely, a positive skew implies investors seeking protection via puts are more aggressive than bullish call buyers.

The put-call skew helps us better appreciate whether bullish or bearish investors have a more significant impact on the VIX.

The graph below, courtesy of Market Chameleon, shows the put-call skew and its 20- and 250-day averages. Currently, it’s on its shorter 20-day moving average and above its longer-term averages. Thus, investors are more aggressive in buying puts than calls compared to recent history. This graph, like the VIX, implies that investor sentiment is bearish.

Put Call Ratio

Unlike the skew and VIX, the put-call ratio gauges sentiment by measuring the volume of options contracts. The ratio divides the volume of put options by the volume of call options over a specific period. A ratio below one suggests bullish sentiment, as more call options are being purchased than put options. Conversely, a ratio above one reflects a bearish sentiment.

As shown below, the index is currently at one year lows and the second lowest level since March 2022. Simply the volume of call buying is more than double that of puts. More simply, stock hedgers are few and far between.

CBOE Skew Index

Unlike the VIX, which measures expected market volatility with an expected one standard deviation or 68% band of accuracy, the Skew Index calculates the likelihood of extreme tail events defined as those of two to three standard deviations. While the Skew index and the VIX tend to move in the same direction, any differences can provide clues. Like the VIX, the Skew Index does not enlighten us on whether call or put trading drives the index.  

The Skew Index uses the prices of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. The index typically ranges from 100 to 150. Readings of 120 or less tend to reflect a stable environment. As it rises above 120, it suggests investors are increasingly betting on or hedging against a more outsized market move.

The table below, courtesy of VIXFAQ.com, quantifies the volatility implied by the Skew Index. For example, an Index reading of 130 indicates a 10.40% chance of a two-standard deviation move in the next 30 days and a 1.92% chance of a three-standard deviation change.

The graph below, courtesy of StockCharts, shows that the CBOE Skew Index is near its highest level in the past five years, suggesting investors are betting on higher-than-average levels of implied volatility to continue.  

Current Situation

We wrote this article to help better explain the VIX and implied volatility. Moreover, it’s important to consider whether the rising VIX alongside the market might be a warning worth heeding.

Such behavior is not typical, but it’s not unprecedented either. The first graph shows that the uptick in the VIX is still very mild in the context of its 30-year history. The second graph pinpoints similar periods where the S&P 500 was within 1% of a record high. As it shows, it may ultimately signal a significant drawdown, but that signal may be too early. In fact, based on history, it could be years too early.

In addition to the VIX, we presented other implied volatility calculations. The two skew measures support the theory that the higher VIX is more of a function of put buying than call buying. However, the put-call ratio, which sits at a one year low, does not confirm the negative sentiment. In fact, it is quite bullish.

The message we take away from the mixed options data is that the market is anxious but not fully committed to an overly bullish or bearish stance. As we note at the beginning, plenty of potential events warrant unease.

Summary

If the VIX remains elevated or continues to increase and the other indicators confirm that put buying is driving the VIX higher, stay alerted for changes in market patterns. Pay closer attention to technical analysis, including where prices lay compared to their key moving averages.

The VIX is currently warning of the potential for bearish price action. While the warning is helpful, remember that if one were solely positioned according to the VIX between 1997 and 1999, they would have forfeited massive profits. 

Futures are mixed as chip stocks recover partially from Tuesday’s rout and as traders looked ahead to more major earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, a day after a profit warning from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML rattled sentiment, and boosted by an across the board beat from Morgan Stanley which jumps 3%, Nasdaq 100 futs are up 0.2% with Nvidia rising 0.8% after sinking nearly 5% on Tuesday. Global equities trade mostly lower on follow through after ASML’s booking miss weighed on Semis and in turn broader markets (ASML call 9am EST today // Tokyo Electron -9%/SK Hynix -2% etc/Taiwan Semi -2% overseas overnight // watch for TSM earnings tomorrow). FTSE +55bps/DAX -35bps/CAC -50bps/Shanghai +5bps/Hang Seng -16bps/Nikkei -1.83%. Bond yields are lower with the 10Y yield dropping to just above 4.00%, the Bloomberg dollar index is unchanged. Commodities are mixed: precious metals are higher, while base metals are lower; oil edged higher as Israel said it was keeping options open in how to attack Iran: UST10yr -3bps @ 4.00% // WTI -$0.35 @ $70.20 // Bitcoin +2.10% @ $68,055. Main event for now is still earnings with ABT, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB reporting pre open // AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, FR, KMI, PPG, REXR, SLG, STLD post close. Focus today in US will be earnings (ABT, MS, PLD); ASML earnings call will be at 9am ET.

In premarket trading, Morgan Stanley shares jumped 3.4% after the bank beat expectations across the board. ASML slid another 4% on continued follow through of light 3q orders (NVDA +70bps, AMD +50bps recovering); UAL is down 0.6% after better revs/eps/$1.5bn buyback (call 10:30am); JB Hunt Transport shares rose 7% in US premarket trading, after the logistics company’s third-quarter profit topped the analyst estimates. Among the biggest laggards was Qualcomm Inc., which fell on reports that it will likely postpone its offer to buy Intel Corp. until after the US presidential election. CSCO rose 1.5% on u/g away; NVCR +32% on FDA approval of Optune Lua Treatment. Here are some other notable pre-market movers:

• Interactive Brokers slumped drops 3% after the trading platform reported adjusted earnings that trailed the average analyst estimates.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 7% after the logistics company’s 3Q profit topped estimates. The company said demand for its biggest segment — intermodal service — improved throughout the quarter, supported by strong performance from its rail providers.
• Novocure (NVCR) soars 24% after the oncology company said the US Food and Drug Administration approved Optune Lua to treat metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in adults who have progressed on or after a platinum-based regimen.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) slides 14% after the semiconductor devices firm’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share missed consensus estimates.
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) rises 3% after reporting earnings per share for the 3Q that beat the average analyst estimate

ASML’s slide Tuesday sent ripples across the industry, resulting in more than $420 billion of market value loss for an index of US-traded chip stocks and the largest Asian peers. While the weakness in names like Nvidia and ASML has an impact on the broader market, Peter Fitzgerald, chief investment officer for macro and multi-asset at Aviva Investors, pointed to the strength of demand for artificial intelligence as well as supportive central bank policy.

“If the Federal Reserve is going to continue to ease and cut rates between now and the end of next year, we are in the soft landing,” Gerard Cassidy, head of US bank equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said on Bloomberg TV. That would be supportive for investment banking, especially initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions, he said.

The pound fell 0.6% below $1.30 for the first time since August and money markets bolstered wagers on Bank of England rate cuts after UK inflation slipped below the BOE’s 2% target for the first time since April ’21 (YoY headline 1.7% vs 1.9% cons // market now pricing more rate cuts in ’24). London’s FTSE 100 outperformed European stock indexes and yields on UK gilts tumbled. China announced that their housing minister along with officials from the MOF and PBOC will hold a press conference tomorrow which will likely provide details on new property support measures

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.4% after ASML extended losses and fell another 3.5% after yesterday’s 15.6% decline. LVMH and Salvatore Ferragamo SpA led the retreat in luxury stocks after weak updates, both slumping as much as 7%. Major European markets are mixed: UK stocks outperform as a result of lower than expected CPI print (Core CPI prints 3.2% YoY vs. 3.4% survey vs. 3.6% prior), with the FTSE 100 rising 0.7% as most of its regional peers decline. European stocks have been hampered by a double-dose of negative earnings news from ASML and LVMH. EU Most Short and EU Defence are higher; Periphery Banks and China Exposed Consumer are among the underperforming baskets. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Teleperformance rises as much as 6.3%, outperforming amid a decline in French stocks, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the customer-contact services firm to buy from hold
• Whitbread shares advance as much as 4.8% after the Premier Inn owner reported first-half revenue that met consensus estimates. The company also said it was making “excellent progress” on its five-year plan
• Rio Tinto’s London-listed shares edged about 0.9% higher after third-quarter earnings met analysts’ expectations. However, softer demand from China meant iron ore shipments rose only marginally, while analysts also noted ongoing issues at the miner’s Kennecott operation
• Quilter advances as much as 11%, to highest since April 2022, after the wealth-management firm delivered net flows significantly ahead of expectations in the third quarter
• ASML shares extend a decline on Wednesday, a day after the chip-equipment maker reduced 2025 guidance and reported weaker-than-expected quarterly bookings. A rout of its European peers also deepened
• LVMH shares dropped as much as 7.5% in Paris trading to its lowest level in over two years, after the luxury-goods company missed estimates for third-quarter organic sales in its important fashion & leather goods unit
• Adidas shares fall as much as 5.2% as a guidance upgrade from the German sportswear firm failed to impress investors, with the stock still up over 25% in 2024. Baader says the new numbers were already reflected in consensus estimates
• Ipsos falls as much as 12%, the most since July 2023, after the market and consumer analytics firm updated its guidance for 2024 and published preliminary 3Q revenue figures
• Kinnevik falls as much as 11%, the most since June, after the Swedish investment company reported its latest earnings, showing a 5% sequential drop in net asset values and a 14% decline year-on-year
• Nel shares drop as much as 6.6% as analysts highlight weak order intake for the hydrogen technology supplier, and commentary which suggests a cautious outlook for the market next year

Earlier in the session, a key Asian index declined to its lowest level in three weeks, driven by losses in chipmaker shares. Chinese stocks fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1%, with TSMC, Tokyo Electron and Samsung Electronics among the biggest contributors to the decline. Their weakness weighed on the tech-heavy markets of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Semiconductor companies faced selling pressure after ASML Holding NV missed order estimates and cut its outlook for next year, sparking a global rout in the sector. A Bloomberg gauge of chipmakers in Asia fell as much as 3.6%.

Chinese stocks faced another day of big swings, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index ending lower for the second straight day and coming close to entering a correction. A lack of clarity over the extent of fiscal stimulus, as well as muted economic data, has cooled sentiment toward the market.  On the other hand, a Bloomberg gauge of China’s property shares surged as much as 8.3% as markets prepared for a joint news conference to be held by government officials including the housing minister and central bank on Thursday.

“It’s mostly a wake up call to reality” for many investors in artificial intelligence stocks, Olivier d’Assier, head of investment research at SimCorp, told Bloomberg Radio. “Analysts or investors had outsized expectations for sales and earnings, so I think it’s a bit of a reality check but not yet a red flag for the global economy.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady; the pound falls 0.4% and earlier dipped below $1.30 for the first time since Aug. 20 after UK inflation slowed more than expected in September. Traders were quick to increase bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England, boosting gilts.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve amid steeper gains for gilts after UK inflation slowed more than expected in September. UK yield curve steepened as OIS contracts priced in a more aggressive path of rate cuts by the Bank of England this year and next year. Treasury yields are lower by 2bp-2.5bp across a slightly flatter curve as long-end outperforms; US 10-year is down ~2bp at 4.01% with gilts in the sector outperforming by 6bp; UK 10-year gilt yields fall 8 bps to 4.08%. The US session is expected to include more bank bond offerings following JPMorgan’s four-part transaction Tuesday.

In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.3% to $70.80 a barrel after slumping on Tuesday, as traders continued to monitor the risk of escalation in the Middle East and the outlook for next year. Gold surged $16 to a new all time high of $2,679/oz as investors turned their attention to the upcoming US election, with polls forecasting a razor-thin contest with less than three weeks to go. . Spot gold climbs

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes the latest MBA Mortgage Applications (which plunged 17.0% after sliding 5.1% the previous week) and the October New York Fed services business activity and September import/export prices (8:30am); no Fed members scheduled for Wednesday

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,862.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 518.87
• MXAP down 0.9% to 190.10
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 604.62
• Nikkei down 1.8% to 39,180.30
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,690.66
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,286.85
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,202.95
• Sensex down 0.2% to 81,631.61
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 8,284.75
• Kospi down 0.9% to 2,610.36
• German 10Y yield down 3 bps at 2.20%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0880
• Brent Futures little changed at $74.23/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,677.53
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 103.38

Top Overnight News

• Chinese property-developer stocks rallied on speculation the government and central bank will announce new measures to boost the housing sector at a joint briefing scheduled for Thursday. BBG
• Adidas shares slide in European trading despite the company issuing a modest upside preannouncement on Q3 GMs/op. income and nudging up its full-year op. income guidance (they now see op. income of EU1.2B vs. the prior forecast of EU1B) as the revenue performance was approximately inline. RTRS
• Saudi Arabia is entering a new phase of austerity as the Kingdom dials back on aggressive spending amid a drop in oil revenue. FT
• UK inflation in Sept tumbled sharply, spurring calls for more aggressive BOE easing (the headline CPI sank to +1.7% in Sept, down 50bp from +2.2% in Aug and below the Street forecast of +1.9%). RTRS
• Indonesia is blocking sales of the iPhone 16 after Apple failed to meet its investment commitments in the country. SCMP
• Georgia judge blocks a new rule that would have required county election workers in the state to count ballots by hand (many worried this rule would have delayed the state reporting its results). WaPo
• Donald Trump has elevated his threat to impose sweeping tariffs on imported cars including from Mexico and the EU, placing increased US trade protectionism at the heart of his agenda if he wins a new White House term. FT
• Elon Musk has given nearly $75mn to help Donald Trump’s bid to win back the White House, as the world’s richest man tries to influence the outcome of next month’s US presidential election. FT
• Private equity investors are selling second-hand stakes in ageing funds at a blistering pace this year, as pensions and endowments find ways to get out of unlisted investments amid a slump in deal activity that has curtailed cash payouts. FT
• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said the US economy is performing quite well and he is confident inflation will get back to the 2% target, while he doesn’t have a recession in his outlook but expects inflation to be choppy and employment to stay robust. Bostic also noted his dot was for 25bps more in 2024 beyond the 50bps September cut and is keeping his options open.
• JPMorgan sees good chances of a US economy soft landing; expects caution to Chinese stocks to continue; Fed is facing challenges managing the impact of supply chain and inflation from geopolitics.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with early declines seen as the risk-off mood rolled over into the region after Wall St pulled back from record levels with global sentiment sapped by disappointing earnings updates from ASML and LVMH. ASX 200 was restrained as weakness in tech and consumer stocks overshadowed the gains in financials and real estate,  while miners were also lacklustre with Rio Tinto shares pressured following its quarterly update. Nikkei 225 underperformed after slipping beneath the 40k level and amid disappointing Machinery Orders.     Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp clawed back opening losses following the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and with China to hold a press briefing tomorrow on promoting the steady and healthy development of the property sector.

Top Asian News

• BoJ announces the continuation of relaxation of terms and conditions for securities lending facility for cheapest-to-deliver issues
• BoJ Governor Ueda to visit China from Oct 17-18; attending meeting of central bank governors from Japan, China, South Korea
• Chinese President Xi said China is willing to be a partner and friend with the US, while he added the success of China and the US is an opportunity for each other and both countries should boost each other’s development rather than be an obstacle, according to state media.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said in his annual policy address that they plan to reduce wait times for public housing and will streamline procedures for companies seeking to list in Hong Kong as they seek to attract international enterprises listings. Lee also announced to cut duties on liquor with an import price of more than HKD 200 to 10% from 100% for the amount above HKD 200, while it was later reported that Hong Kong is to relax mortgage rules for some homes.
• BoJ’s Adachi says the risk of upward pressure heightening from the bigger-than-expected JPY fall has reduced significantly. Markets have stabilised when compared to when there was huge volatility in August.
• BoJ Board Member Adachi said conditions are already in place for the BoJ to start normalising monetary policy and it must take rate hikes in several stages, but added they must avoid drastic policy change that could stoke fear of a return to deflation. Adachi said the BoJ will raise rates at a very moderate pace and maintain an accommodative financial environment until underlying inflation stably and sustainably hits 2%, while he also stated that hiking rates at a rapid pace after the inflation target is met could cause a big shock to economy and the BoJ should raise rates in several stages to achieve smooth policy normalisation. Furthermore, he said the BoJ must avoid a premature rate hike, which means it should use conservative estimates in gauging Japan’s natural rate of interest.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) are mostly trading in negative territory, with sentiment hit after poor earnings from heavyweights ASML and LVMH. The FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is the European outperformer, assisted by the cooler-than-expected UK inflation report. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Energy is towards the top of the pile, attempting to recoup some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Consumer Products is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in LVMH (-3.60%), whilst ASML (-3.8%) acts as a drag on Tech. US Equity Futures (ES U/C NQ +0.1% RTY +0.2%) are trading mixed, with the ES and NQ flat, taking a breather from the losses seen in the prior session, whilst the RTY sees very modest gains. China’s Cyberspace regulator has called for a systematic examination of the risks of Intel (INTC) products. Intel -4% pre-market. Google (GOOGL) says multiple Google Cloud products are impacted in the US-West2 Region, US-West2-A Zone. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Energy is towards the top of the pile, attempting to recoup some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Consumer Products is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in LVMH (-3.60%), whilst ASML (-3.8%) acts as a drag on Tech.

Top European News

• Italy’s Economy Minister Giorgetti says the government has reached a deal with the EU over a seven year adjustment path for deficit and debt

FX

• USD is mixed vs. peers. DXY has traded near the upper-end of today’s 103.17-39 range, but in recent trade has pulled back from best levels to reside towards the mid-point of today’s confines. Docket ahead includes US import and export prices.
• EUR is ever so slightly firmer vs. the USD but with EUR/USD attempting to climb back above 1.09 in recent trade. Fresh macro drivers for the EZ remain light in the run up to Thursday’s ECB policy announcement. For now, EUR/USD is managing to hold above its 200DMA at 1.0872.
• GBP is the worst performer across the majors in the wake of soft UK inflation data which saw headline Y/Y CPI slip further below target and services inflation decline to 4.9% vs. the MPC forecast of 5.5%. Cable has slipped onto a 1.29 handle for the first time since August 20th; technicians flag the 100DMA at 1.2952.
• Despite an attempted recovery vs. the USD yesterday, JPY is once again struggling against the greenback. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 149.48.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD by similar magnitudes. NZD/USD was in focus overnight and saw some weakness following CPI metrics which saw a softer-than-expected outturn for Q/Q CPI.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are firmer in a continuation of the upside seen in Tuesday’s session. Initial upside stemmed from cooler-than-expected UK CPI and has since extended to a 134.12 peak.
• Gilts gapped higher by 68 ticks and then extended further to a 97.76 multi-week peak after softer-than-expected UK inflation. A release which has all but cemented a November cut and makes one in December very likely as well.
• USTs are holding in the green, taking the lead from the above but yet to extend much further with US specifics light. USTs are just off a 112-20 peak, resistance at 112-21 from last week and thereafter 112-24 and 112-28+.
• UK sells GBP 3.5bln 4.0% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 2.98x), average yield 3.988% (prev. 3.814%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 1.6bps)
• Germany sells EUR 0.822bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 and EUR 0.854bln vs. exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 Bund.

Commodities

• Crude began the European session on a firmer footing as the complex took a breather from recent pronounced pressure. However, as the morning progressed oil prices edged lower, with Brent’Dec now residing near session lows at USD 74/bbl.
• Spot gold is bid, holding around a USD 2677/oz peak with support coming from the generally tentative risk tone (influenced by earnings), soft yields and ongoing geopolitical concern.
• Base metals are firmer paring back some of the pressure seen in yesterday’s session which was driven by the performance of China and continued assessment of recent stimulus efforts.
• Indian Gold imports (Sep) USD 4.39bln vs. USD 10.06bln in August, according to the Trade Ministry.
• Qatar has set the December term price for Al-Shaheen oil at USD 1.93bbl above Dubai quotes which is down vs. November, according to Reuters sources

Geopolitics

• Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s attack is ready, according to CNN sources.
• “An Israeli official says a letter received from senior US officials on Gaza and is being carefully reviewed by Israeli security officials”, via Sky News Arabia
• Israel’s army presented PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant with a list of targets for a possible attack on Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government began disabling GPS in Tel Aviv in anticipation of the Iranian response to a possible Israeli attack, according to Al Arabiya.
• IDF said it killed a large number of Hezbollah members in raids and exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon during the last day, while it added that it hit more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations including weapons stores.
• Israel targeted a site in the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since Friday.
•    
• Israel’s army said about 50 rockets were detected from Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee, and a number of them were intercepted, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is to visit Jordan, Egypt and Turkey as part of a diplomatic reach out to countries in the region ‘to end genocide, atrocity and aggression’, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
• Iran has told the UN that it is prepared for a decisive response if Israel attacks it, via journalist Elster.

US event calendar

• 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -17%, prior -5.1%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index YoY, est. 0%, prior 0.8%
• 08:30: Oct. New York Fed Services Business, prior 0.5
• 08:30: Sept. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.7%
• 08:30: Sept. Export Price Index YoY, prior -0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I went to a parent’s evening last night for 9-yr old Maisie and the Maths teacher flew through how they teach long division nowadays so we could help Maisie at home if needed. I must admit I didn’t have a clue what she was going on about, but given I’ve worked with numbers for nearly 30 years with many before that studying, I was too embarrassed to say and just nodded along. Then I accidentally spent most of the time with the English teacher, who is a Liverpool fan, speaking about the season so far. Fair to say I got a slight reprimand when I got home. I’m not looking forward to my domestic appraisal. Strengths: “sports”. Weaknesses: “everything else”.

Some rare weakness has come through in risk over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.76%) falling back from its record high the previous day. That followed significant disappointment among chipmakers after ASML’s earnings (-15.64% and its worst day since June 1998) were beneath expectations, whilst energy stocks also took a hit from the latest decline in oil prices. Indeed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -5.28% over the day, whilst Nvidia was down by a similar -4.69% partly also because of the previous night’s story that the US was mulling stricter chip export rules for certain countries.

Even with the tech sell-off, in some ways the most important move yesterday was the decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-4.14%) down for a third consecutive day to $74.25/bbl. That followed the Washington Post report we mentioned yesterday, saying that Israel would strike military infrastructure in Iran, and not oil or nuclear facilities. So that took out some of the geopolitical risk premium from oil prices, but there remains significant concern about an escalatory spiral and the potential for a wider conflict, as Iran have said that they would respond to any Israeli attack.

That decline in oil prices meant investors became more relaxed about inflationary pressures, which have moved increasingly onto the radar over recent weeks. In fact, the 5yr US inflation swap fell by -4.1bps yesterday to 2.48%, marking its biggest daily decline in over a month. And in turn, investors dialled up the likelihood of rate cuts over the months ahead, with the rate priced in for the Fed’s June 2025 meeting falling -2.8bps to 3.62%. That also came as the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that debt delinquency expectations moved higher once again, with the mean probability of not being able to make a minimum debt payment over the next 3 months rising to 14.2%, which is the highest since April 2020 at the height of the pandemic.

With rate cut expectations moving higher again, that led to a sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, that meant the 10yr Treasury fell -6.7bps to 4.03%, although the 2yr yield was down by a smaller -0.9bps to 3.95%. The decline was most pronounced at the long-end, with 30yr yields (-9.1bps) seeing their sharpest decline since the vol shock on August 2.

Over in Europe, bonds saw a similar rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-7.8bps) and BTPs (-8.4bps) all moving lower. This also meant that the spread of Italian yields over bunds tightened to just 124bps, which is the tightest since March when it fell to 122bps. This came ahead of the Italian government last night announcing its 2025 Budget Bill, which our European economists’ previewed in a note earlier yesterday. Meanwhile, in a separate report overnight ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, they discuss what the recent oil market volatility may imply for ECB policy.

For equities, it was a tougher day that saw the major indices struggle on both sides of the Atlantic. In large part that was driven by the semiconductor drop mentioned above, and the Euro STOXX 50 (-1.87%) saw a major decline given ASML’s weighting in the index, which itself was down -15.64%. In fact, it was the worst day for the Euro STOXX 50 since early August, when the underwhelming jobs report led to significant market turmoil. The plunge in ASML’s share price came as the company reported Q3 bookings of EUR 2.6bn, around half that expected by analysts, and lowered its 2025 guidance. The stock is now -33% down from its July peak amid more cautious demand for its advanced chip-making equipment and more restrictions on where it can export.

After the European close, we also had disappointing results from luxury giant LVMH, as weaker demand in China saw the company’s key luxury unit post its weakest revenue growth since the early phase of the Covid pandemic. Its ADRs fell by -7.94% in US trading and looks set to give up all the gains (and more) made since China’s stimulus announcement. Elsewhere, it wasn’t quite as bad, but the STOXX 600 was still down -0.80%, and in the US the S&P 500 fell -0.76%. The tech underperformance saw the NASDAQ slip by -1.01%, though the Mag-7 (-0.58%) actually outperformed slightly as the mega caps were fairly stable aside from Nvidia’s -4.69% fall. Defensive sectors including consumer staples (+0.64%) and utilities (+0.45%) outperformed within the S&P 500.

US banks also outperformed amid amidst positive earnings results, with the KBW Bank Index (+0.28%) rising to its highest level since April 2022. The gains were more pronounced for smaller banks, as the KBW Regional Banking Index advanced +1.18%. By contrast, some of the larger banks reporting actually saw their share price fall, with Citigroup down -5.11% despite beating headline estimates.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower after ASML earnings with the Nikkei leading the losses (-2.05%), followed by the KOSPI (-0.43%), and the CSI (-0.24%). By contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.90%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) are higher. S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ futures (+0.23%) are also rebounding a bit.

Early morning data revealed an unexpected decline in Japanese core machine orders for August, which fell by -1.9% month-on-month, compared to an expected increase of +0.1% and a previous month’s decline of -0.1%.

Here in the UK, the latest employment report was reasonably positive yesterday, with unemployment ticking down to 4.0% in the three months ending August (vs. 4.1% expected). It’s true that the number of payrolled employees was down -15k in September (vs. -3k expected), but the previous month was revised upwards to show a smaller -35k decline (vs. -59k previously). Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey for October showed a decline in the current situation reading to -86.9 (vs. -84.0 expected), which was the weakest since May 2020. However, the expectations measure picked up to 13.1 (vs. 10.0 expected) after three consecutive monthly declines. Finally, the ECB’s latest quarterly Bank Lending Survey pointed to some ongoing improvement in bank credit conditions, especially for housing loans.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde. Otherwise, today’s earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Abbott Laboratories.

Via Remix News,

The first pro-caliphate protest in Hamburg caused a lot of consternation and outrage in the German media when it took place earlier this year, but now it looks like they are set to become a regular occurrence.

Just like past protests in support of establishing an Islamic caliphate in Germany, another one on Sunday night demanding the introduction of Sharia law in Germany saw thousands attend. The videos, once again saw masses of Islamists screaming, “Allahu Akbar,” along with other pro-Islamic chants.

Muslim Interaktiv, the group behind the demonstrations, reported that 5,000 took part. The group is active in Germany organizing rallies, including protests against Israel’s war in Gaza in Palestine.

Muslims take over Hamburg, Germany, protesting to establish a new caliphate.

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/YeeIFUbydW

— AF Post (@AFpost) October 12, 2024

Past protests were treated with a shrug. Hamburg police chief Frank Schnabel told ZDF in April that he saw no legal grounds for banning the organization. Federal Justice Minister Marco Buschmann also made a similar statement, saying that the call for a caliphate is “politically absurd” but not a punishable offense.

Even more remarkably, Thomas Haldenwang, the head of Germany’s Office of the Protection of the Constitution, a powerful domestic spy agency, also brushed off the caliphate protests, simply stating they are a “conceivable” form of government.

🇩🇪☪️ Germany’s top spy chief: An Islamic caliphate is “is one conceivable form of government among many that exist around the world.” pic.twitter.com/tsn1UE9cKV

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 27, 2024

Notably, he is the same spy chief rabidly opposed to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and has actively spoken out against the party in a highly politicized manner.

The German BfV is somewhat comparable to the FBI in the United States, but is even more openly politicized. For example, Haldenwang is a member of the CDU party, which views the AfD as an intense electoral rival.

Compare how Haldenwang addresses the AfD and how he treats the… pic.twitter.com/36Sj0Dj6W0

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 27, 2024

German teenagers who danced and sang “Auslander Raus” (“Foreigners Out”), faced arrest and massive police responses. Teens caught singing the song on video faced widespread public witch hunts, which have seen them lose their jobs and smeared on the front cover of newspapers across the country. In the most famous case on the island of Sylt, German left-wing politicians called for the “maximum penalty” and years in prison against those caught simply singing the song during private events.

Is a caliphate possible in Germany?

For those who believe demographics is destiny, the idea of a caliphate in Germany may not sound so absurd. Germany’s Muslim population is expected to grow rapidly, and for those who adhere to a hard-line form of Islam, they are likely to see even faster population growth due to their fundamentalist interpretation of the Quran and higher birth rates.

Powerful demonstrations of the type seen in Hamburg may also serve to recruit more Muslims into their ranks as well, especially with authorities showing they have no effective tool to call off such demonstrations. After all, these protests are presumably protected by freedom of speech.

However, the call for the implementation Sharia law, which would in theory jeopardize Germany’s democratic constitutional order, is treated with a laugh and a shrug by top politicians. Meanwhile, calls to close Germany’s borders and drastically reduce immigration are treated as near terroristic threats by the state security services.

As Remix News previously reported, Pew Research already predicted up to 75 million Muslims could live in Europe by 2050. The prestigious research firm noted that in Germany, this number could reach 17.4 million Muslims. Over the coming decades, their strength could grow and they could have serious political influence in countries like Germany. That means such demonstrations may not only become more and more frequent, but also be coupled with voting blocs and political power.

The fact that Germany is now openly sending weapons to Israel amid monumental conflicts in the Middle East may only fuel further terror attacks aimed against the nation.

🇩🇪🇮🇱 Germany will continue shipping weapons to Israel, says Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Scholz made the statement after the CDU accused him of not doing enough to support Israel.

The move comes despite some factions of the German left decrying the humanitarian situation in Gaza. pic.twitter.com/iARhHSmvLT

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 13, 2024

German politicians may continue to downplay the issue of these caliphate protests, along with the various other social ills due to mass immigration, but they are only set to get worse. The data and trends all point in that direction. The question now is only how hard these same politicians and security services will come down on anyone pointing out these trends, and especially those actively opposing them.

🇩🇪‼️ NEW: The Germany city of Hamburg has canceled a Jewish Street Festival over fears it will be attacked by Islamists.

The organizers’ statement reads:

“Unfortunately, we have come to the conclusion that, despite security and police support, we cannot guarantee safety. Just… pic.twitter.com/XljJzODeQn

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 29, 2024

Read more here…

The world’s largest luxury goods company reported third-quarter organic sales that missed the average analyst expectations tracked by Bloomberg. This signals a broader slowdown across luxury markets in China and the West. The results raise concerns about cost-conscious consumers as central banks reverse interest rate hiking cycles with interest rate cuts to prevent a hard economic landing in the global economy.

Paris-based LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, commonly known as LVMH, unexpectedly reported lower sales in the third quarter, primarily due to the pullback in Chinese luxury demand. It reported organic revenue of -3%, missing the Bloomberg Consensus of +.39%. Each division, from fashion to perfumes to watches to fine wine, missed analyst expectations. It reported revenue of 19.94 billion euros, which missed the 20.05 billion euro estimate. 

Here’s a snapshot of LVMH’s third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Organic revenue -3%, estimate +0.93% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Fashion & Leather Goods organic sales -5%, estimate +0.48%

• Wines & Spirits organic sales -7%, estimate -2.41%

• Perfumes & Cosmetics organic sales +3%, estimate +4.26%

• Watches & Jewelry organic sales -4%, estimate -3.71%

• Selective Retailing organic sales +2%, estimate +5.09%

• Revenue EU19.08 billion, -4.4% y/y, estimate EU20.05 billion

• Fashion & Leather Goods revenue EU9.15 billion, -6.1% y/y, estimate EU9.74 billion

• Wines & Spirits revenue EU1.39 billion, -8.2% y/y, estimate EU1.47 billion

• Perfume & Cosmetics revenue EU2.01 billion, +1% y/y, estimate EU2.07 billion

• Watches & Jewelry revenue EU2.39 billion, -5.5% y/y, estimate EU2.43 billion

LVMH’s outlook was a dismal one that only suggests consumers in its top markets remain under pressure through year-end: 

In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands, drawing on the authenticity and quality of its products, excellence in distribution and agile organization. 

After the earnings report, RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania told clients that results “indicate a more pronounced slowdown than expected.”

The pandemic-era spending boom that drove luxury sales has run out of steam around the world. In the US, low/mid-tier consumers are cost-conscious and heavily indebted with depleted savings. The luxury behemoth is considered a bellwether for the entire sector. 

In markets, LVMH ADRs dropped 6% late in the session, just 50bps from entering a bear market for the year. 

As LVMH shares decline, Bernard Arnault’s luxury empire takes a hit, reducing his net worth by billions of dollars (according to Bloomberg data):

Rivals Ralph Lauren Corp., Estee Lauder Cos, and the ADRs of Gucci owner Kering SA also fell in New York as growing concerns mounted among traders that consumers were losing momentum.

Authored by Vance Voetberg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

From Starbucks to Red Bull to Coke, caffeine has become an energy bump for 75 percent of Americans who consume it on a daily basis. Many count it as the spark that ignites their brains and bodies to get through a long day.

However, not all caffeine presents itself the same, according to emerging research demonstrating that synthetic caffeine may accelerate aging while naturally occurring caffeine could slow age-related decline.

Does Synthetic Caffeine Accelerate Aging?

The type of caffeine in your coffee may play a role in its protective effect against aging.

About 60 percent of the caffeine consumed by Americans is synthesized in a lab, meaning it doesn’t come from natural sources such as coffee beans or tea plants. Synthetic caffeine is what popular companies such as Pepsi, Coke, and Red Bull add to their beverages to give their drinks an extra kick. 

In a 2017 study published in Nutrition & Metabolism, higher caffeine intake was associated with shorter telomeres, a marker of cellular aging, in adults. However, increased coffee consumption was linked to longer telomeres. This suggests that compounds beyond caffeine may provide anti-aging effects.

“On the surface, it might be assumed that caffeine intake and coffee consumption are essentially the same variable,” the researchers wrote. “They are not.”

These findings echo earlier ones that greater coffee consumption was associated with longer telomeres among 4,780 female nurses in the United Kingdom. 

However, a 2023 study published in Nutrients found instant coffee to be negatively associated with telomere length, potentially because of higher DNA-damaging mineral lead content. Standard filtered coffee showed no adverse effect.

Research also indicates that green tea could protect against telomere shortening, while synthetic caffeine indicated DNA damage. The authors of a study investigating green tea, coffee, and caffeine from soft drinks reported findings that might help inform drink choice.

“We suggest beneficial effects of green tea consumption and potentially disadvantageous effects of soft drink consumption on LTL [leukocyte telomere length] shortening, which may reflect accelerated biological aging,” they wrote. 

Coffee and Tea’s Anti-Aging Secrets

Multiple antioxidant compounds present in coffee and tea likely contribute to their anti-aging effects, according to some research.

Studies show that coffee and tea protect DNA integrity and reduce oxidative damage. In one randomized controlled study involving 50 men and 50 women, dark roast coffee reduced DNA damage by 23 percent in just four weeks. Similar results were identified in a separate eight-week interventional study that included 96 adults.

“Caffeine that is found in coffee or tea exists in a matrix of over 1,000 other chemical compounds, most notably polyphenolic compounds that have potent antioxidant effects,” David Wiss, who holds a doctorate in public health and is a registered dietitian nutritionist, told The Epoch Times. Polyphenols are known to reduce oxidative stress by scavenging free radicals that can cause cellular damage, he added. For this reason, he said, both coffee and tea have anti-inflammatory properties that “isolated caffeine does not offer.”

Although coffee and tea have demonstrated protective effects against neurogenerative conditions such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s, some research shows that isolated caffeine fails to protect against neurodegeneration. Coffee may still be the best source of caffeine to protect against Alzheimer’s disease because of a component in it that synergizes with caffeine to enhance protection against disease progression.

How Much Is Too Much Caffeine?

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends consuming no more than 400 milligrams of caffeine, the amount in four to five cups of coffee, daily.

Whereas a naturally caffeinated food such as chocolate contains about 12 milligrams of caffeine, and beverages such as coffee and tea contain up to 95 milligrams of natural caffeine per serving, energy drinks can contain as much as 300 grams of synthetic caffeine per serving.

This spike in caffeine content has been associated with heart attacks in young people, but some studies show that coffee and tea have cardioprotective effects.

But even with these reported benefits from coffee and tea, some experts advise caution.

The United States’ dependence on caffeine—both natural and synthetic—reflects an “addiction crisis” that is problematic, according to Mr. Wiss. “Our society is too reliant on caffeine as a stimulant,” he said.

He recommends eating breakfast before ingesting caffeine and waiting 60 to 90 minutes after waking before indulging in caffeinated beverages or other sources of caffeine.

“My other recommendation is to take a three-day (or longer) break from caffeine every three to six months,” he said.