By John Kemp of Kemp Energy

Exceptionally low gas prices have driven gas-fired generation to a record high in the United States, in the process eliminating most of the excess inventories inherited from the very mild winter of 2023/24.

U.S. electricity generators produced a record 2,069 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in the first six months of 2024, an increase of 98 billion kWh (5%) compared with the same period a year earlier.

Most of the extra electricity came from gas-fired units (+43 billion kWh), solar parks (+24 billion kWh) and wind farms (+19 billion kWh), with smaller contributions from nuclear (+10 billion kWh) and coal (+4 billion kWh).

Gas-fired units produced a record 857 billion kWh, and accounted for 41% of all generation, which was also a record high, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

As a result, gas generators consumed a record 6,264 billion cubic feet (bcf) of fuel, an increase of 314 bcf compared with 2023.

RECORD LOW GAS COSTS

The gas generation boom has been driven by extraordinarily cheap fuel, with prices declining to the lowest for more than five decades in March, after adjusting for inflation.

Gas generators were able to run for many more hours, including less-efficient single-cycle gas turbines and steam units, which normally only operate at times of peak demand.

Gas units seized share from coal-fired generators as the gas costs dipped below coal on an energy-contained basis between March and May, the first time this had happened since 1975.

On average, gas generators are more efficient, requiring 7,740 British thermal units of fuel to produce each kilowatt-hour of electricity, compared with 10,689 British thermal units for coal generators.

Because of their efficiency advantage, gas units can compete with coal when gas prices are as much as 30-40% more expensive.

Between March and May, however, gas was 10-20% cheaper, creating an enormous financial incentive to switch to gas.

SUMMER DEMAND PEAK

Since the start of the third quarter, gas generators have continued to produce record amounts of electricity, mostly at the expense of coal, according to data published by transmission operators.

In the Lower 48 states, gas units generated a record 540 billion kWh between July and September, up from 525 billion kWh in the same period in 2023.

Gas generation increased even though total electricity production was broadly flat compared with a year earlier.

Extra gas generation came at the expense of coal, where generation slipped to 201 billion kWh down from 221 billion kWh in 2023.

INVENTORIES NORMALIZE

Surging gas generation has combined with slower gas production and an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to eliminate most of the surplus fuel carried over from last winter.

Working gas stocks in underground storage rose by just 430 bcf over the summer quarter, the smallest seasonal increase since at least 2010, and 45% less than the average for the last decade.

By September 30, inventories were just 185 bcf (+5% or +0.70 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average.

The surplus had narrowed from 537 bcf (+21% or +1.42 standard deviations) at the end of June and 634 bcf (+39% or +1.36 standard deviations) at the end of March.

Gas prices have started to climb gradually as the surplus has eroded: front-month futures prices have averaged $2.80 per million British thermal units so far in October up from a low of $1.75 in March. 

But futures are still below the inflation-adjusted averages of $3.24 in October 2023 and $6.52 in October 2022, and barely above the cost of coal.

Gas generation is likely to continue setting record highs unless and until futures prices climb above $3.00-3.25 on a sustained basis.

France has embarked on a quiet force build-up and expansion of its troops and military presence in NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ country of Romania. It plans to send thousands more French troops to the country which shares a large border with Ukraine for major military drills planned next year.

“We used to play war,” French General Bertrand Toujouse was quoted in Politico as saying. “Now there’s a designated enemy, and we train with people with whom we’d actually go to war.”

Politico has further cited French army leadership as saying it has “new marching orders from NATO,” and that ultimately the plan is that by 2027 it “should be able to deploy a war-ready division in 30 days.” 

Within the next iteration of upcoming NATO drills in Romania, France will test “its ability to deploy a brigade, typically 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers, within a 10-day window.”

Over the past two plus years, and ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb.2022, France has led the way in providing soldiers for a NATO battle group stationed in Romania, including at least 800 French troops and climbing.

This build-up is happening in the face of constant Kremlin warnings about the expansion of NATO’s military infrastructure right up to Russia’s doorstep, a historic grievance which spans back to the 1990s and to the early 2000s. Russia has even recently changed and lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons.

It must be recalled that in Sept. 2023 testimony to the European Union Parliament, then NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (recently retired) admitted that it was the constant US-led push to expand NATO eastward that remains Moscow’s key rationale for invading Ukraine.

Stoltenberg’s revealing words are recounted as follows:

“The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition to not invade Ukraine. Of course, we didn’t sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second-class membership. We rejected that.

So, he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite.”

Fast-forward to this week, Oct. 2024, and a US state-funded source details the following of French military expansion eastward:

France doubled its contribution to the NATO Response Force in Romania on 28 February, 2022, just four days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sending 350 additional soldiers as well as a dozen armoured vehicles and a dozen Leclerc tanks.

Since 1 May 2022, the deployed force, operating under the name “Mission Eagle” (“Mission Aigle“) has taken the form of a multinational battlegroup of which France is the core. France also deploys a MAMBA ground-to-air defense system, logistics and fighting units, totalling more than 1,000 French soldiers.

Last month, additional vehicles from the French 7th Armored Brigade  arrived in Romania. In total eight Leclerc tanks and six armed personnel carriers reached the army camp General Berthelot, just outside Bucarest, escorted by Romanian military police. 

While French President Emmanuel Macron early in the Russia-Ukraine war attempted to play peacemaker and mediator with Russia’s Putin through a series of ‘controversial’ phone calls, any attempt at serious diplomacy between the West and Moscow has long gone out the window.

In the meantime, Ukraine has only kept up its ultra high risk drone attacks deep into Russia, destroying with some success oil depots, gas facilities, and key miliary assets at air bases, including also on the Crimean peninsula. But this has made no different on the front lines in Donetsk, where Ukraine forces are crumbling.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

This might be the first time that average Americans read a top Russian official’s views without a filter…

It’s rare nowadays for Russian officials to give interviews to Western media, both because the first suspect that their words won’t be accurately reported while the second fear being “canceled”, which is why it’s so important that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov just gave a written interview to Newsweek.

He concisely summarized his country’s positions on the Ukrainian Conflict, multipolarity, and the US’ upcoming presidential election, which will be reviewed.

Regarding the first, he reaffirmed the official position that Kiev should comply with Putin’s ceasefire request from over the summer and that Moscow wants to address the root causes of this conflict, not just freeze it for some time.

The spring 2022 draft peace treaty could form the basis for resuming talks with Ukraine if the latter revokes its decree on banning them, though some details would have to change. He also warned against letting Ukraine use Western long-range weapons deep inside of Russia.

As for the second, Lavrov emphasized the regional dimension of multipolarity by referencing several leading blocs before describing BRICS as a model of multilateral diplomacy and confirming the importance of the UN as a forum for aligning the interests of all countries. Respect for one another’s interests, a greater say in global governance for developing countries, and mutual cooperation are considered the driving forces behind this trend. China also shares Russia’s views on this too, he said.

Lavrov doesn’t expect that anything will change in Russian-US relations after the election regardless of who wins since both parties are committed to countering his country.

The Kremlin will consider whatever new proposals might be made in the event that this happens, however, thus leaving open the possibility for improving their ties if the will exists on the US’ side and it respects Russia’s interests. He ended by hoping that the US will stop looking for adventures abroad, but this comes off as wishful thinking.

There’s nothing novel in what he said and those who’ve been following this conflict closely won’t learn anything by reading his interview, but the importance rests in the fact that average Americans might hear more about Russia’s actual policies towards these subjects for the first time. They’ve mostly been insulated from this since it hasn’t been accurately reported by their media until now. To Newsweek’s credit, they shared Lavrov’s responses without any editorializing too, thus removing the usual filter.

None of this means that average Americans will now all of a sudden agree with everything that Russia is aiming to achieve in Ukraine and the world more broadly, nor might they be disabused of the false perception that it’s meddling in support of Trump, but it might warm some of them up to these ideas. Depending on the battlefield progress in the coming months, the outcome of the election, and next month’s G20 Summit in Rio, the trappings of a realistic compromise might finally begin to appear.

In that scenario, other Mainstream Media outlets might follow Newsweek’s lead by requesting interviews with Lavrov and other Russian officials. The purpose would be to precondition the public for accepting that the West’s maximalist goals in this proxy war aren’t realistic and that some of Russia’s goals aren’t as threatening as they were earlier portrayed. Of course, it’s also possible that nothing might happen, in which case this interview will stand out as an exception instead of the start of a new trend.

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

Americans are like members of a quarrelsome family, so intent on arguing their petty grievances around the kitchen table that they don’t smell the rising smoke from the oven. As our nation fumes and the world burns, neither major party presidential candidate is addressing the lapping flames around us.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are not simply ignoring our frightening national debt – both vow to ramp it up. Neither candidate has a serious plan to respond to the threats posed by China, Russia, or Iran.

The strangling costs of health care, the sharp decline in mental health, the disintegration of our public schools – which is sharply tied to the breakdown in the family – are all ignored in a race marked by gauzy references to policy and sharp personal attacks.

It’s not just Harris and Trump – our leadership in Washington has long refused to face up to the growing threats to our republic. Their empty promise is that everything is the other side’s fault. Help us annihilate the other guy and everything will be peaches and cream.

A third-grader wouldn’t fall for this nonsense. Neither side can vanquish the other. A Harris victory will not be the death knell of Trump’s populist message; Trump’s win will not defang progressivism’s leftward lurch. Whatever the outcome, we will continue to be a divided, angry nation. And yet, seemingly thoughtful Americans have bought this line hook, line, and sinker.

More importantly, even if one side did seize absolute power, they have no legitimate plan to right the ship of state. Sixty years of Great Society programs have shown us we can’t spend our way out of problems. The 44 years since the Reagan Revolution show us that tax cuts can only set the stage for reforms that have never come – a task that nears the impossible as ever more Americans become dependent on government aid.

America is in a second Age of Nero – our leaders fiddle as the country burns.

In past crises, the strength, resilience, and ingenuity of the American people have saved us from the depths of want and war. It is not clear we retain that grit.

Instead of demanding leadership, we seem content with the bread and circuses of mindless politics more akin to the gladiatorial battle of Rome than the edifying debates of ancient Greece. The broad embrace of victimhood and grievance on both sides has replaced any question of sacrifice for the common good with the desire to demonize our imagined tormentors. If anything, we savor the fight. It makes us feel important, alive – it gives our lives meaning.

Although we have serious problems, we are no longer a serious people. Hence our choice between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris.

They are not the disease, however, but a symptom. The first step toward a treatment, if not cure, is obvious: we must reject our empty politics of diversion in order to identify and address our urgent crisis. Honesty really would make a difference. It might also make us happier as we re-channel our energies from angry partisanship into thoughtful partnership.

Still, that would only get us so far. Life teaches that identifying one’s problems is the relatively easy part of change – we all know what’s wrong with the other guy and, sometimes, ourselves. Finding the will and discipline to do something about it is far harder. 

We are sinking before that challenge because it still seems possible to ignore the building fire. Many of us have it pretty good; our fears are mitigated by our confidence in escape. It won’t get me.

Ironically, the fact that much of the rest of the world is crumbling imparts a false sense of security. Instead of seeing those problems as canaries in the coal mine, we think, Hey, we’re still doing okay.

It’s true that history confutes the doomsayers. The world does get better in the long run. But that is little consolation to those whose one short life is spent during the ebbing flow.

History also teaches that judgment for past failure often comes with sudden swiftness, like a thief in the night. As we think about the immense problems we are allowing to smolder, recall Ernest Hemingway’s pithy warning from “The Sun Also Rises.”

“How did you go bankrupt?” one character asks a friend.

“Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

J. Peder Zane is a RealClearInvestigations editor and columnist. He previously worked as a book review editor and book columnist for the News & Observer (Raleigh), where his writing won several national honors. Zane has also worked at the New York Times and taught writing at Duke University and Saint Augustine’s University.

Authored by Huey Freeman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Drug studies sponsored by drug manufacturers tend to report higher drug efficacy than studies not sponsored by the drug company, a new report published in the Journal of Political Economy on Oct. 7 finds.

The report found a “sponsorship effect” that tends to bias sponsored studies toward reporting higher drug efficacies. The author could not find differences in study design between those funded by drug companies and those not.

“Removing the sponsorship effect would reduce the difference in efficacy … by about 50%,” Tamar Oostrom, an assistant professor of economics at Ohio State University, said in her paper.

“This effect was larger than I expected,” Oostrom told The Epoch Times over email. “My results suggest that sponsored arms of trials should be discounted substantially.”

She said that the difference in results between sponsored and unsponsored trials may be that “manufacturers are running multiple trials and selectively publishing those that are more favorable towards their drug.”

Even a small effect of bias by funding could affect the use of a drug, she noted.

“If some of the results from a clinical trial are biased, patients may be taking a less effective drug for them, or they may be taking a drug when alternate treatment might be more beneficial,” Oostrom said.

Her research analyzed the published papers of 509 trials and 1,215 treatment arms (groups of participants). Most of the trials were published after the drug gained approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). About three-quarters of them examined were for antidepressants, with the remaining quarter for antipsychotic medications.

“My paper is the first to examine the effect of financial sponsorship on outcomes by directly comparing a large set of trials in which the exact same arms are tested with differing financial interests,” Oostrom said.

Trials Comparing Drugs Vary by Funding

Oostrom examined two main types of drug trials: drugs that are compared to placebos and drugs that are compared to other drugs.

She found that the effect of drug company sponsorship was more pronounced in placebo trials.

There are multiple payoffs for results that favor a drug’s efficiency.

“Trials in which the manufacturer’s drug appears more effective are more likely to be published,” Oostrom said.

These published trials can be used in marketing to physicians. Prescriptions also tend to increase in response to favorable clinical trials.

Oostrom cited a 2023 study that found that when a clinical trial significantly favors a drug, “there is a large and immediate increase in demand.”

The trials Oostrom reviewed included an average of 100 participants, with a mean age of 42. Sex distribution was nearly equal, with 51 percent of participants being female.

Case Study: Effexor Versus Prozac

As an example of bias, Oostrom presented the case of Effexor, an antidepressant introduced by Wyeth Pharmaceuticals in 1993. Over the following 15 years, Wyeth funded 14 randomized controlled trials comparing Effexor’s effectiveness to its rival, Prozac. In 12 of these trials, funded solely by Wyeth, Effexor was found to be more effective.

However, when Effexor and Prozac were compared with alternative funding, only one out of three trials found Effexor to be more effective.

“Each of these trials is a double-blind RCT comparing the exact same two molecules and examining the same standard outcomes,” Oostrom wrote in her paper.

Expert Opinions on Research Bias

The study confirms that the funding of studies greatly influences their design and results, Dr. Chad Savage, an internal medicine specialist and founder of YourChoice Direct Care, told The Epoch Times.

“Multiple attempts have been made over the years to counter this effect, such as requiring financial disclosures from authors, but none have succeeded in fully eradicating the bias that can exist,” Savage said.

This bias often stems from the “self-preservation instincts of researchers, who are in a constant quest for funding” or possibly facing unemployment, he added.

“Solving this problem is challenging,” he said. “One potential solution is to return to the principle of reproducibility, a cornerstone of science. If a finding is valid, it should be replicable through multiple studies conducted by different researchers, with diverse funding sources, and published in different journals.”

According to Dr. Peter C. Gøtzsche, professor of clinical research design and analysis at the University of Copenhagen, the bias in industry-sponsored trials is massive.

“In head-to-head trials where Prozac was the drug of interest, significantly more patients improved on Prozac than in trials where Prozac was the comparator drug,” Gøtzsche told The Epoch Times.

He cited a 2004 study that found systematic bias in rating the effectiveness of Prozac, one of the first antidepressants on the market. Prozac is the brand name for fluoxetine.

The Epoch Times reached out to Eli Lilly, Prozac’s manufacturer, and Pfizer, which now owns Effexor, for comments.

Top Israeli officials, including senior ministers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met on Thursday to outline a war strategy for Israel’s retaliation against Iran, according to the New York Times, citing two officials who requested anonymity due to the private nature of the discussions. The move comes in response to Iran’s bombardment of Israel early last week, which involved up to 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles. This tit-for-tat escalation could spiral into a much larger and broadening conflict across the Middle East.

NYT cited Israeli officials, who have warned that coming retaliation for last week’s missile barrage “will be more severe.” President Biden this week spoke with Netanyahu, the first conversation in months, about Israel’s pending retaliation strike against Iran. 

Last Thursday, Biden was asked by MSM reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran’s critical oil export facilities. The president said, “We’re discussing that.”

President Biden was asked about Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities this morning. He said:

“We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little … anyway … Nothing will happen today.” pic.twitter.com/6AV2fxKHf4

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 3, 2024

Remember, on Sept. 27, Netanyahu told the United Nations General Assembly, “The curse of Oct. 7 began when Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza, but it didn’t end there. Israel was soon forced to defend itself on six more war fronts organized by Iran.”

We have detailed in multiple notes how the most likely high-value assets that IDF jets (F-35s) could hit first would be Iran’s ability to export crude and crude energy products: 

• Oil Surges On Report Biden “Discussing” Strike Of Iranian Oil Facilities

• Israel Mulling Attacks On Iran Energy Sites Despite Biden Objections, Oil Spikes

Providing more color on what a potential IDF strike on Iran would look like is David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former US State Department official who has worked on counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East. 

Asher penned an op-ed in the WSJ on Thursday titled “A Strategy for Striking Back at Iran“… 

Asher noted:

The strategy Israel has successfully implemented against Hezbollah must now be applied against Tehran directly. The regime is the puppeteer behind Oct. 7 and the multifront attacks against Israel.

He explained:

Israel’s most effective course of action would be to target key leadership, military support and financial infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence and Security Ministry. That would weaken the regime’s pillars while avoiding direct harm to civilians, which could otherwise foster sympathy for the regime. Combined with attacks on Iran’s external oil-export capacity to deprive the regime of its financial lifeblood, a top-down leadership-focused approach would pressure the regime without disrupting essential domestic services.

Israel should first neutralize the immediate missile threat posed by the regime. Striking Iran’s leadership and nuclear facilities without simultaneously addressing Iran’s offensive missile capabilities would allow the regime to retaliate aggressively. Iran knows this, which explains why its rulers are posting web images of their subterranean “missile cities.” Next, Israel must attack the regime’s headquarters, command facilities and military. No key Iranian leaders should be spared. The precision killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran apartment demonstrates that Israel can strike anyone, anytime and anywhere.

Then Iran’s military training camps on the Iraq border should be smoked. For decades, these camps have been used to train Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas and Iraqi special-group operatives for campaigns against Israel, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and global antiterrorist operations. After that Iran’s central bank and oil export facilities should be destroyed.

Asher pointed out he was critical in counter-terrorism operations against ISIS’s central bank and cash distribution centers across Mosul, Iraq, in 2015-16.

He said the combination of kinetic warfare and economic warfare could be a winning strategy for Israel to dismantle Tehran’s financial apparatus, adding that only after “disrupting command, control, and financial and logistical infrastructure should Israel consider direct action against key Iranian nuclear facilities.”  

 …

Iran’s largest power plant:

This power plant produces a total of about 2880 megawatts of electricity pic.twitter.com/TjKjdLrSOV

— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) October 1, 2024

Asher said Americans should not forget… 

The U.S. should provide direct and public support to Israel’s counterstrikes, not just sit on the sidelines. America should never forget the large number of Americans who have been murdered by Iran and its terrorist action network since Hezbollah attacked the U.S. Embassy in Beirut multiple times in the 1980s and obliterated U.S. barracks there in 1983, killing 241 Marines and sailors. These attacks were followed by the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996 and numerous Iran-directed attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq between 2003 and 2012 that killed and wounded thousands.

The U.S. military has a blood grievance against Tehran’s regime. Yet there has been little retaliation beyond taking down Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Now is the time to join Israel in retribution at scale and scope.

A 2018 book by Col. Richard Kemp and Maj. (ret.) Chris Driver-Williams, titled “Killing Americans and Their Allies: Iran’s Continuing War against the U.S. and the West,” detailed how over 1,100 US deaths in Iraq are estimated as attributable to Iran. 

Segwaying into energy markets… Brent crude prices would surge if IDF fighter jets neutralized Iran’s oil-export capacity. 

According to S&P Global…

Iran’s crude export loadings remained well below normal levels Oct. 10 as oil markets continued to brace for an expected retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran that could target the country’s oil infrastructure and disrupt Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Register Now Crude loadings from Iran averaged 816,244 b/d in the week to Oct. 9, according to preliminary observed and estimated tanker movements in S&P Global Commodities at Sea. A 2 million-barrel cargo of Iranian crude was seen leaving Iranian waters Oct. 9, the second VLCC crude cargo in four days after an apparent hiatus of VLCC liftings since Sept. 28, when the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel escalated.

Here’s a detailed map of oil assets across the Middle East:

Late last month, Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham told clients a war risk premium in Brent crude prices was absent. If IDF forces target Iranian energy assets, especially knocking out Tehran’s ability to export crude to buyers in Singapore and China, then Brent prices would instantly reprice much, much higher. 

Asher penned a note in March about a “Global oil shock could trigger a crisis ala 2007-2008″ if the Middle East spirals out of control.

The looming question is whether Israel will strike Iran before or after the US presidential election. 

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly 3 million Americans have cast early ballots either in person or by mail with under four weeks to go until Election Day, an election tracking site shows.

As of 6:43 p.m. on Oct. 9, 2,877,590 people had cast ballots in states that report early voting data, according to an update from the University of Florida’s Election Lab website.

Early Voters By Party

Of that figure, nearly 504,000 people had voted early in person, and more than 2.37 million had voted by mail, the tracking site found.

About 47.5 million mail-in ballots have been requested so far. In comparison, more than 92 million mail-in ballots were requested through the 2020 election, according to the university.

In the states reporting how people voted by party, 56.3 percent of people who had returned early ballots were Democrats, representing about 732,378 people. Another 27.4 percent were Republican, representing 356,797 voters, and 16.2 percent, or 210,980, were independent or members of a third party, according to the website.

By Age, Gender, Ethnicity

When broken down by age, nearly 60 percent of early voters were over 65, the tracking site found. Another 28 percent were age 41 to 65, while 9 percent were age 26 to 40, and only 3.2 percent were aged 18 to 25.

Slightly more than 54.4 percent of people who returned early ballots were female, and roughly 44.6 percent were male, the site found. The remaining 1.1 percent were marked “unknown,” according to the site.

Among early voters, about 72 percent were white, 8.6 percent were black, 2.2 percent were Hispanic, 2.4 percent were Asian, and 14.3 percent were marked “unknown,” the site stated.

Early Voting Starts in Arizona

Early in-person voting started on Oct. 9 in Arizona, making it the earliest of this year’s presidential battleground states to enable residents to cast a ballot at a traditional polling place ahead of Election Day.

The start of in-person voting in the closely contested state is also drawing the presidential tickets, with both campaigns scheduling visits in the state this week.

The Oct. 9 start date for early voting overlaps with campaign stops by both vice presidential nominees, Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Republican Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who are each holding events in Tucson, Arizona, on that day.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is scheduled to host a rally in Phoenix on Oct. 10, while former President Donald Trump will hold an event on Oct. 13 in Prescott Valley, north of Phoenix.

Early voting, particularly by mail, has long been popular in Arizona, where nearly 80 percent voted before Election Day in 2020, according to the secretary of state’s office. Each of Arizona’s 15 counties is required to open at least one site for in-person early voting, which runs until the Friday before the Nov. 5 general election. In Maricopa County, a dozen voting centers are scattered around the metro Phoenix area.

Early in-person voting has been underway in some states for several weeks now. It begins next week in four more swing states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada.

Changes in North Carolina’s Election

Following the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina, the state’s election board this week approved an emergency measure that changes voting rules.

The rule changes apply to 13 counties that saw infrastructure, voting sites, and mail delivery impacted by Helene, which made landfall in late September.

One change approved by the board includes enhancing in-person early voting by allowing county boards to modify early voting sites, dates, and hours. It will also allow a county election board for one county to open a polling site in another county, depending on the circumstances, the state election board stated.

Voters in affected counties can now request an absentee ballot in person up until Nov. 4, the day before the general election, according to the election board. Completed ballots can be dropped off by Nov. 5 at 7:30 p.m. at a polling location.

Voters who were displaced are also allowed to turn in ballots to another county’s elections board by the same deadline, the state said. Previously, voters could turn in absentee ballots to early voting sites only in their county or to their county elections board by Election Day.

Other Activities

South Carolina took action earlier this month to extend its voter registration deadline to Oct. 14, while Georgia elections officials have said they do not expect major disruptions from Helene.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order allowing election supervisors in 13 counties impacted by Helene to make voting-related changes. The state is bracing for a major hurricane, Milton, which is expected to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast on the night of Oct. 9.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

A high-ranking Iranian military officer who was considered a “key figure” that oversaw Tehran’s support to the ‘resistance axis’ abroad was slain in the Israeli airstrike which killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 in south Beirut. 

Iran had soon after the Israeli attack confirmed the death the IRGC’s #2, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan. But his body had not been found even long after Nasrallah’s remains were recovered. Iran’s government had vowed that his killing “will not go unanswered.”

The IRGC deputy commander’s body was finally recovered on Friday by Lebanese search and rescue workers, regional media has announced, a full two weeks after the strike:

The Public Relations Department of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced that the body of IRGC Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan has been found.

On September 27, Nilforoushan was killed by Israeli strikes in Beirut. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was also killed in the attack.

The assassinations, along with the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, triggered Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, in which it fired almost 200 ballistic missiles on October 1.

The fact that there was enough rubble to bury his remains to the point that the body took two weeks to recover speaks to the enormity of the bombs’ impact and destruction.

The strikes have been described as happening as a high-level meeting between Nasrallah and top Iranian officials was taking place. It’s believed that the meeting was being held in a bunker underneath office or apartment buildings.

Israel likely used heavy US-supplied ‘bunker busters’ to penetrate that far down. Hezbollah and Iranian officials attending the meeting were essentially buried under the massive layers of rubble.

According to a backgrounder on the slain Gen. Nilforoushan:

Born in Isfahan in 1966, Nilforoushan began his military activities in the 1980s joining the Basij and later the IRGC, holding various positions including Deputy Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces for Operations.

Iranian media outlet Student News Network (SNN) described Nilforoushan as a “key figure” with extensive battlefield experience who played a crucial role in supporting the “Resistance Axis, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian resistance groups,” helping to strengthen their capabilities against Israel.

Following the assassination of IRGC General Mohammad Reza Zahedi in an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, Nilforoushan “assumed command of the Lebanon front,” according to the Tehran-based Fararu website.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has confirmed the recovery of the body of Commander Abbas Nilforooshan, following tireless efforts by specialized teams. pic.twitter.com/9sJTKItakm

— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) October 11, 2024

Hezbollah has since claimed to have reconstituted its command and communications structure, but it’s anything but clear who exactly leads the paramilitary organization at this point. Likely no specific name will be publicized anytime soon, given the person would immediately become a top target of Israel.

Authored by Sina McCullough, Mercura Wang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Whether it is turning food into fuel, building cells, repairing DNA, detoxifying, recycling nutrients, or defending against oxidative stress, niacin provides the energy to keep it all running smoothly. Without it, your cells would be like a phone stuck with a 1 percent battery: desperately low on power and struggling to keep up!

But niacin does more than energize your body. It also plays a vital role in specific functions, like supporting skin health—a finding that dates back to the discovery of this remarkable vitamin.

In the 1910s, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, a U.S. Public Health Service medical officer, was investigating the mystery of pellagra. This debilitating disease was sweeping South Carolina and other parts of the world, leaving a trail of severe symptoms: rough, scaly skin, digestive issues, and mental disturbances, with a fatality rate of 40 percent. Tens of thousands were affected, and the cause was a mystery. Most thought it was an infectious disease.

Goldberger suspected pellagra wasn’t caused by a germ but by something missing from people’s diets. By restricting corn and adding foods like fresh milk, buttermilk, eggs, beans, and peas to the diets of pellagra patients, Goldberger showed the symptoms could be reversed. But what was the magic ingredient in these foods?

Years later, a biochemist identified niacin as the specific factor behind this dietary solution. It turns out that niacin was the key to preventing pellagra and restoring health.

Special Talents

Niacin has many talents and roles, but a few main ones are highlighted below.

1. Energizer

Niacin is the star player in your body’s grand energy production team. Fats, carbohydrates, and specific proteins are broken down into energy when you eat. Turning these foods into usable energy is where niacin truly shines. In the presence of oxygen, these nutrients travel through a series of pathways to transform the food you eat into energy, known as adenosine triphosphate (ATP), which powers nearly everything you do, from thinking to moving.

ATP is in constant demand but exists in only small, rapidly depleted amounts. To keep us alive, our cells must regenerate ATP continuously—and that’s where niacin steps in as a genuine “energizer.” Niacin, in the form of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD), acts as the critical energy carrier in the pathways that convert nutrients into ATP, ensuring that despite our limited ATP stores, we always have a fresh supply ready to fuel every heartbeat, every breath, and every thought.

Without niacin, the body’s energy production would cease, making this nutrient essential for sustaining life itself.

2. Nerve Protector

Niacin has shown exciting potential in protecting the nervous system and combating neurological diseases. Pre-clinical trials suggest it could be beneficial for conditions like multiple sclerosis (MS), Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and glioblastoma.

Niacin helps repair the myelin that protects your nerves and reduces inflammation in the brain. A 2004 prospective study found an association between higher niacin intake and a lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease and cognitive decline. Niacin also speeds up the transformation of stem cells into nerve cells and helps those cells survive, even under oxidative stress.

3. Cancer Fighter

Niacin enhances DNA repair by maintaining cellular energy levels, preventing ATP depletion, and increasing excision repair, which is essential for reducing cancer risk. In clinical trials, niacin reduced the incidence of skin cancer. In patients with cancer, higher niacin intake increased the odds of survival. Niacin may also help prevent certain cancers, as niacin deficiency can impair DNA repair, thus leading to genomic instability and increased tumor development in rat models, including a higher risk of chemically induced leukemia.

Also, niacin has been shown to effectively reduce the incidence of premalignant actinic keratosis by 11 percent, squamous cell carcinoma by 30 percent, and basal cell carcinoma by 20 percent among cancer patients, compared to a placebo after a 12-month trial. Furthermore, if you have certain cancers, such as carcinoids, you may also need more niacin.

Other Talents

Niacin also helps in the production of reproductive and stress-related hormones, improves circulation, regulates the secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines, and suppresses inflammation.

Fun Facts

• Niacin is not technically an essential vitamin because your liver and certain microbes in your intestine can make it from tryptophan, the amino acid famous for making you sleepy after Thanksgiving turkey.
• While some organizations discourage its use as a first-line therapy, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved niacin to treat high cholesterol and high triglycerides. Niacin was the first cholesterol-lowering drug before the discovery of statins.
• Unlike some of the other B vitamins, niacin is stable when exposed to heat and light. It survives most cooking methods, so the niacin in your food is unlikely to be destroyed during preparation.
• More than 400 enzymes depend on niacin, making it critical for proper body function.
• There’s growing interest in niacin’s role in the production of serotonin, a neurotransmitter that helps regulate mood, sleep, and appetite.

Favorite Hangouts

Niacin hangs out in liver and meat, including chicken, turkey, beef, lamb, salmon, tuna, shrimp, and sardines. Vegetarians can find niacin in unfortified nutritional yeast, mushrooms, asparagus, sweet potato, bell pepper, almonds, sunflower seeds, sesame seeds, nuts, lentils, peas, and legumes. Niacin bioavailability is higher in meat compared to plants because it is mainly in the form of the coenzyme NAD.

Some of the foods rich in niacin are listed below. Their daily consumption quantities are calculated based on the Food and Nutrition Board’s Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) for niacin, which is 16 milligrams per day for adult males and 14 milligrams per day for adult females.

Food portions and the percentage of the daily value they meet include the following:

• Pan-fried beef liver (3 ounces): 93 percent
• Grilled chicken breast (3 ounces): 64 percent
• Marinara sauce (1 cup): 64 percent
• Roasted turkey breast (3 ounces): 63 percent
• Cooked sockeye salmon (3 ounces): 54 percent
• Light canned tuna (3 ounces): 54 percent
• Roasted pork tenderloin (3 ounces): 39 percent
• Pan-browned ground beef (3 ounces): 36 percent
• Cooked brown rice (1 cup): 33 percent
• Dry-roasted peanuts (1 ounce): 26 percent

Recipe: Energizing Chicken Salad

Short on time? No worries! Grab an organic rotisserie chicken, and this meal will come together in under five minutes. It’s a quick and easy way to load up on niacin and its supporting cast, vitamin B6, riboflavin, vitamin B1, iron, and tryptophan (covered later).

Ingredients:

• 1 cup cooked chicken breast
• 2 cups spinach
• ½ avocado
• 1 tablespoon olive oil
• 1 tablespoon lemon juice
• Handful of sunflower seeds and sliced almonds

Directions:

1. Shred the cooked chicken breast and place it in a large bowl.
2. Add spinach and diced avocado.
3. Drizzle with olive oil and lemon juice.
4. Sprinkle almonds on top.
5. Toss well and serve chilled for a refreshing, niacin-packed meal.

How to Optimize Absorption

Some of the niacin in foods like coffee, grains, and seeds is bound, so for it to be released, it requires special processing, like roasting, germinating, fermentation, or alkali treatment.

For coffee lovers, roasting is key; the more robust the roast, the more niacin available, while decaf contains less.

Grains are often marketed as a good source of niacin, but here’s the twist: This is only true if they’re germinated, fermented, alkali-treated, or fortified. About 70 percent of the niacin in whole grains in their natural state is bound up in a form our bodies can’t easily absorb.

Diets that relied heavily on grains like corn and sorghum were the culprit behind widespread pellagra outbreaks in South Africa, India, and Southern Europe in the 18th century and later in the United States after the Civil War. In the postwar South, diets were largely grain-based, relying on cereals like corn, wheat, and grits, which left them dangerously low in niacin. It wasn’t long before physicians, including Goldberger, connected the dots: Niacin deficiency was at the heart of these health crises, and eating niacin-rich foods could save countless lives.

Long before modern science understood the importance of niacin, many ancient cultures had already developed ways to make it more available in their diets. The Aztecs, for instance, boiled and soaked corn in an alkaline solution, such as water with lime or calcium hydroxide—a method known as nixtamalization. Other cultures added alkalizing substances like juniper ash or lye made from hardwood ash.

This alkalizing process freed the bound niacin, making it more bioavailable and likely protecting against pellagra in regions like South and Central America, where these techniques were practiced. Unfortunately, it is thought that when these traditional methods of processing corn were abandoned, niacin deficiency may have become more widespread, potentially contributing to pellagra outbreaks.

Today, to help prevent such deficiencies, the FDA requires niacin to be added to flour and bread and labeled as “enriched.” That’s why added niacin is listed on many bread labels in the grocery store.

If you’re cooking at home and want to unlock more niacin from whole grains, try these tricks:

• Germinate (or sprout) raw grains.
• If whole-food forms of corn are a staple in your diet, consider preparing them in lime water.
• When making bread, use yeast or baking soda to help it rise.
• Combine three days of sprouting with an eight-hour sourdough fermentation.

Supporting Cast of Nutrients

The amino acid tryptophan is a dietary source of niacin because it can be converted into niacin by the liver and certain microbes in your intestine. Including tryptophan-rich foods like turkey, eggs, and cheese in your diet can help boost niacin levels.

However, the conversion process is inefficient, requiring about 60 parts tryptophan to make just one part niacin. This ratio is why niacin intakes are expressed as niacin equivalents (NE), with 1 milligram of NE equal to 1 milligram of niacin or 60 milligrams of tryptophan.

Therefore, niacin should be consumed with foods containing vitamin B6, riboflavin, vitamin B1, and iron. These nutrients help convert tryptophan into niacin.

Pairing niacin with foods containing unsaturated fatty acids is also a good idea. Adding unsaturated fatty acids to your diet can help increase niacin synthesis from tryptophan. Avocados, olives, nuts, fatty fish, and dark chocolate are a few examples of these types of foods.

Deficiency

Niacin deficiencies are rare in industrialized nations, primarily because of adequate dietary intake and the addition of niacin to numerous foods and multivitamin supplements.

Recommended Dietary Allowance

The current RDA (16 milligrams daily for men, 14 milligrams daily for women) is based on preventing deficiency. Still, some experts suggest higher amounts may benefit those dealing with high levels of oxidative stress, such as athletes or people with chronic conditions.

Symptoms and Signs

Common niacin deficiency symptoms include the following:

• Depression
• Headache
• Fatigue
• Memory loss
• Hallucinations
• Indigestion
• Canker sores
• Vomiting
• Poor circulation
• Pellagra-related symptoms

Pellagra is often recognized by the “3 D’s”: dermatitis (inflammatory patches on the skin), dementia (cognitive decline), and diarrhea. In its most severe form, there is a fourth D: death. These symptoms typically appear in the late stages of niacin deficiency.

Pre-pellagra symptoms include:

• Weakness and fatigue (often the earliest symptom)
• Exercise intolerance
• Hair loss
• Tongue inflammation and mouth sores (vitamins B2 and B6 and iron deficiencies can all lead to this)
• Anxiety, depression, mood swings
• Gas, bloating, indigestion (these precede diarrhea)
• Neuropathy, or numbness and tingling in hands and feet (vitamins B1, B2, B6, and B12 and folate deficiencies can all cause neuropathy)
• Migraine-like headaches and light sensitivity

Who Is at Risk?

The risk factors that raise a person’s likelihood of niacin deficiency in the United States include the following:

• Alcoholism (chronic alcohol consumption interferes with niacin absorption)
• Limited diets (e.g., eating disorders or food insecurity)
• Carcinoid syndrome
• Liver cirrhosis
• Inflammatory bowel disease
• Hartnup disease
• Inadequate riboflavin, pyridoxine, or iron intake
• Certain medications

People with Parkinson’s disease who are taking medications like levodopa might face a higher risk of developing or worsening a niacin deficiency. Levodopa is commonly prescribed to Parkinson’s patients to help increase dopamine levels in the brain, easing motor symptoms. It’s often paired with carbidopa to prevent levodopa from breaking down in the bloodstream before it reaches the brain. However, carbidopa can interfere with the body’s ability to make niacin naturally.

Parkinson’s patients often experience systemic inflammation, which can compromise niacin levels. Adding dopaminergic medications like carbidopa/levodopa may further reduce the body’s natural niacin production, worsening a potential deficiency. For this reason, Parkinson’s patients on these medications may need to monitor their niacin levels to avoid deficiency.

Toxicity

Niacin was commonly prescribed for high blood lipid levels until statins were discovered. At high doses (generally 1 to 6 grams per day), niacin can increase high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and triglycerides. However, high doses can also lead to liver damage and failure, with a higher risk associated with the sustained-release form.

Niacin at 50 or more milligrams per dose can cause a “flush,” which increases blood flow to the skin. It typically starts at the top of your head, turning your face bright red before spreading down your body, and is often accompanied by a warm, tingling sensation. If you want to avoid the flush, niacinamide is an alternative form of niacin. While it is not as effective, it does not cause the flushing effect.

Timing also matters. To reduce the chance of niacin flushing, take supplements with food and start with a lower dose before working your way up.

Even higher doses of niacin (3,000 milligrams a day) may lead to jaundice, abdominal discomfort, blurred vision, worsening of hyperglycemia (high blood sugar), and triggering of preexisting gout. Other risks are the formation of stomach ulcers and increased uric acid levels, which may increase the risk of gout.

Also, if you’re allergic to aspirin, you may be sensitive to tartrazine, which is found in some forms of niacin. Avoid taking niacin without consulting your health care provider if you have liver problems or an active peptic ulcer. If you are pregnant, avoid taking niacin supplements altogether.

Interactions

Niacin may reduce the effectiveness of certain medications, including those that lower cholesterol (bile-acid sequestrants) and treat gout, as well as the antibiotic tetracycline. Certain anti-seizure medications (e.g., phenytoin and valproic acid) and the tuberculosis medication isoniazid may cause niacin deficiency in some people.

Niacin supplements may increase the levels of carbamazepine and mysoline in the body. Niacin can also strengthen the effects of blood thinners and alpha-blockers (one type of blood pressure drug), thus increasing the risk of bleeding and low blood pressure, respectively.

Combining niacin with statins may slow down heart disease progression while increasing the risk of muscle inflammation or liver damage. Therefore, if you are taking any of the medications mentioned above or regularly consuming alcohol, it’s essential to consult your health care provider before starting niacin supplements. Additionally, using nicotine patches alongside niacin may increase the risk or severity of niacin flush.