Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

If Donald Trump gets past Kamala Harris on Nov. 5, he’ll likely face a fiercer opponent in court – her campaign attorney, Marc Elias, who has vowed to fight the election outcome in every close state she loses.

The longtime Democratic Party lawyer has already filed more than 60 preelection lawsuits to stop Trump from becoming president again by combatting what he calls Republican “voter suppression” efforts such as requiring voters to provide identification at the polls. Echoing a standard Democratic talking point, Elias maintains that such requirements are “racist” strategies designed to make it harder for minorities to vote.

At the same time, Elias has been sending letters to election officials in Georgia and other key swing states threatening legal action if they uphold challenges to voter rolls to remove noncitizens and other ineligible registrants. Some Georgia officials complain that his intimidation tactics are interfering with county registrars’ ability to check the qualifications of voters.

If Trump is declared the winner, the hard-charging attorney threatens to overturn his election by deploying an army of more than 75 lawyers to sue for ballot recounts in several swing states. Trump, in turn, has threatened to lock Elias up for election interference, as ABC News moderator David Muir pointed out in last month’s presidential debate between Trump and Kamala Harris.

Elias symbolizes the growing impact of lawfare on U.S. elections as both parties are turning increasingly to the courts to gain an edge. According to a newly disclosed Republican National Committee memo, the Trump campaign has filed or joined 123 election lawsuits in 26 states, 82 of which are in battleground states, to combat what it describes as voter fraud. It has also hired thousands of lawyers to fend off what a Trump lawyer expects will be “an onslaught of litigation” from the Harris campaign contesting the results of the election. Of course, that army of lawyers will also be used to push recounts should Trump lose.

Election experts say that these GOP efforts – fueled, in part, by Trump’s claim that Democrats stole the 2020 election – are playing catch-up. Democrats have long been at the forefront of strategies to use the court to impact elections, and no one has been more important to that cause than Elias, who keeps a sign behind his desk that warns: “BEWARE OF ATTACK DEMOCRAT.” 

To many Democrats, he is a hero. The headline of a 2022 profile of Elias in the New Yorker called Elias, “The First Defense Against Trump’s Assault on Democracy.”

Conservatives tend to see Elias in a much different light. “Mr. Elias is part of a massive and well-funded partisan leftist operation notorious for using lawfare to undermine election integrity,” says Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch. “Making it easier to steal elections is the antithesis of ‘democracy.’”

Nevertheless, in the expanding world of lawfare, Elias, a 55-year-old graduate of Duke University’s law school, continues to stand apart. While scoring many victories in the courthouse, he has also worked closely with campaigns on partisan efforts that have little to do with jurisprudence.

More Than a Courtroom Partisan

As general counsel to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, he helped lead the effort to manufacture and leak spurious “opposition research” claiming to reveal illicit ties between Trump and Russia.

Elias later testified that he was worried – then as now – that Trump was a threat to democracy: “I received information that was troubling as someone who cares about democracy.” That “information” turned out to be a fictitious “dossier” linking Trump to the Kremlin crafted by former British spook and FBI informant Christopher Steele, who huddled with Elias in his Washington office. 

“Some of the information that was in it I think has actually proved true. It was accurate and important,” Elias testified in a closed-door hearing on Capitol Hill in December 2017, according to a declassified transcript. Actually, Steele’s allegations proved to be a collection of improbable rumors and fabricated allegations invented by Steele’s top researcher and a Clinton campaign adviser.

Nonetheless, the disinformation was fed to the FBI and media, igniting criminal investigations (including illegal electronic surveillance), congressional probes, and a media frenzy that crippled Trump’s presidency with bad press for years.

In a parallel operation against Trump, Elias worked with his then-law partner Michael Sussmann and Clinton campaign officials – including Jake Sullivan, who is now President Biden’s national security adviser – to develop misleading evidence of a “secret hotline” between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that allegedly used a “back channel” connection between email servers at Trump Tower and Russian-owned Alfa Bank. These false allegations were posted on social media and brought to the attention of the FBI, triggering a separate criminal investigation targeting Trump and his campaign. Like other Russiagate probes, it was eventually discredited.

But the damage was done. By spreading fake Russian dirt on Trump, Elias was able to create scandals that dogged Trump for years, tarnishing his electability. The Democratic lawyer’s machinations, however, drew scrutiny from other investigators and hurt his own reputation – albeit temporarily.

During his probe of Russiagate, Special Counsel John Durham found Elias intentionally sought to conceal Clinton’s role in the dossier. According to court records, Elias acted as a cutout for more than $1 million in campaign payments for the dossier. By laundering its payments through a law firm, the Clinton campaign and Elias were able to claim attorney-client confidentiality when Durham sought their internal emails (the assertion of that privilege also blocked investigators from accessing communications between Elias and Steele’s immediate employer, the Washington-based opposition research firm, FusionGPS). But their shell game got the Clinton campaign in trouble with the Federal Election Commission, which later fined it and the Democratic National Committee $113,000 for misreporting the purpose of the payments as “legal expenses,” rather than opposition research, in violation of FEC laws.

The Durham probe, which Elias insists was “politically motivated,” nonetheless raised ethical issues with the D.C. Bar and Elias’ former law firm, Perkins Coie, reportedly leading to their breakup in August 2021, when Elias suddenly left the powerhouse after almost 30 years. The firm, which Elias had joined fresh out of law school in 1993, grew “increasingly uncomfortable” with the unwanted scrutiny the Durham probe invited on it, according to published reports. The veteran prosecutor exposed questionable billing practices by the firm. Durham also revealed the Democratic firm had set up an FBI workspace within its Washington offices, further calling into question the FBI’s impartiality in investigating Trump. 

In late 2021, Elias opened his own firm, the Elias Law Group, but soon lost major clients who reportedly grew weary of his aggressive tactics and go-it-alone style. Last year, the DNC severed its 15-year relationship with Elias; then more recently, the Biden campaign parted company with him. In 2020, Elias had quarterbacked Biden’s legal team that fought Trump’s claims in court that the election had been stolen. He also beat back GOP measures to ensure election integrity after Democrats took advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to dramatically loosen rules for voting – including allowing ballot harvesting, drop boxes, and ballots arriving up to four days after Election Day to still be counted.

Top Democratic Party officials were said to sour on Elias after he filed election-related lawsuits without consulting with them, some of which backfired with unfavorable – and lasting – rulings. Biden’s team reportedly also became frustrated with his fees. Elias billed the DNC and Biden campaign more than $20 million during the 2020 election cycle.

But Elias has since taken on other clients – including Kamala Harris – who have more than made up for the loss in revenue. So far in this election cycle, the latest FEC filings show the Elias Law Group has received a total of more than $22 million in disbursements from a host of major Democratic and anti-Trump clients. In addition to the Harris For President campaign, where he’s in charge of recounts and post-election litigation (it’s not known if he also has a hand in opposition research, as he did in 2016), Elias has signed retainer agreements with the:

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
• [Democratic] Senate Majority PAC
• Stop Trump PAC
• The Lincoln Project

Elias has also been retained by Mind The Gap, a political action committee set up to help Democrats take back the House. Mind The Gap was founded by Barbara Fried, the mother of convicted crypto kingpin Sam Bankman-Fried. In a lawsuit filed last year, Fried, a Stanford law professor, is accused of orchestrating a potentially illegal scheme to funnel political contributions from her son to her PAC.

Among Elias’ other clients are Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, a leader of House efforts to impeach Trump who, records show, is shelling out a six-figure retainer for Elias as he runs for an open U.S. Senate seat in California, and Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman, who previously served as Schiff’s chief counsel during the first Trump impeachment. 

Elias also represents Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who polls show is narrowly leading GOP challenger Bernie Moreno in his race for reelection, according to the RealClearPolitics Average. That race could determine control of the Senate.

The business of political lawfare – or “protecting democracy,” as Elias calls his job – has made the super lawyer super-rich. The most recent property records show Elias lives in a $2.6 million mansion in Great Falls, Va., and FEC records show he has the wherewithal to donate generous sums to his party, including a combined total of at least $65,000 in gifts to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“Aggressive Bully”

Elias first earned his reputation as a fierce and effective advocate in 2009, when he won an eight-month recount battle to get his client, Al Franken, elected to the Senate. He also scored a series of victories against the Trump campaign in 2020.

“My team and I beat [Trump] in court 60-plus times,” Elias boasted on X last month, in his trademark brashness. “Here is my message to the GOP: If you try to subvert the election in 2024, you will be sued and you will lose.” 

Representing Biden electors in Arizona, for example, Elias in late 2020 defeated a post-election Trump lawsuit alleging voter fraud in Maricopa County by arguing at trial the plaintiff showed the court only “garden variety errors” but provided “no evidence about misconduct, no evidence about fraud, no evidence about illegal votes.”

But Elias’ aggressive posture has also backfired.

In 2016, he sued Arizona to strike down two laws that, he argued, made it harder for blacks and Hispanics to vote. One banned the practice of partisans going door-to-door and collecting mail-in ballots and bringing them to a polling place, and the other canceled ballots that were cast at the wrong precinct. Elias argued the measures violated a key part of the Voting Rights Act – Section 2 – prohibiting states from passing voting laws that discriminate based on race. After a lower court in Arizona refused to block the measures prior to the election, Elias appealed and won a favorable ruling from the liberal U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. But in the case, Brnovich v. DNC,  the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Arizona, ruling that the state’s ballot-integrity measures lacked discriminatory intent. 

UCLA law professor Rick Hasen speculates that the conservative Supreme Court used the Brnovich case as “an opportunity to weaken” Section 2, which Democratic voting-rights lawyers have relied on as a tool for civil rights enforcement. Regardless of the justices’ motives, the Brnovich decision does establish a precedent whereby voting rules resulting in only small disparities for voters of color can no longer be challenged. Some Democrats complain that Elias’ loss in Arizona opened the door for all red states to impose “restrictions” on voting.

“Marc didn’t listen to such criticism and he brought an extremely weak Voting Rights Act case in Arizona to disastrous results,” Hasen wrote in a recent blog. “It is fine to be zealous in one’s advocacy,” he added, “but one need not be an aggressive bully.”

Elias has also aggravated judges. He’s been disciplined for filing frivolous lawsuits and motions. In 2021, for instance, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit sanctioned Elias for refiling a motion that was previously rejected by a lower court “without disclosing the previous denial.” The appellate court ordered him to pay attorneys’ fees and court costs incurred by opponents in the Texas election case over his “duplicative” motion.

“Using lawfare as Elias does is legal – unless the litigation is frivolous,” said Paul Kamenar, general counsel for the National Legal and Policy Center in Washington.

Elias and an attorney representing him did not reply to requests for comment. But in a previous interview, he dismissed the criticism that he is unnecessarily belligerent, arguing that the “existential threat Trump poses to democracy” demands tough action. He acknowledged that he can be brusque but explained he discarded lawyerly circumspection and restraint after Trump’s 2016 election “radicalized” him. 

“And so I became a much more polarized person and a more polarizing lawyer,” Elias told The New Yorker.

In a recent column for his Democracy Docket website, Elias attacked Trump as another “Hitler” who is “plotting to overthrow American democracy.” He even warned that a reelected Trump “is almost certain to convert the military into his personal domestic police force” and “seize voting machines [and] control ballot counting,” even though state laws govern elections.

Still, he denies filing groundless grievances over voting rules. He insists many of the tighter rules imposed by Republicans serve no legitimate purpose. And he doesn’t buy their argument that they’re needed to stop fraudulent voting because, as he claims, voter fraud is rare (or, more precisely, rarely prosecuted).

Anti-Trump War Room

“Republicans are working every day to make it harder to vote,” Elias recently posted on X. “They are also planning to subvert the elections when they lose.”

Noting the GOP’s flurry of preelection lawsuits, including in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina, Elias recently told MSNBC that Republicans will do anything to push Trump over the top because he cannot win on his own. “He is set to lose to Kamala Harris,” Elias claimed, “and Republicans know that their only way of winning this election is by intimidating voters, making it hard for voters to participate in the process, and by setting up a structure after the election for them to be able to engage in the kind of frivolous and harassing litigation and ultimately the kind of tactics we saw in 2020 – but on a much wider scale.”

To combat this, “My law firm is litigating 66 voting and election lawsuits in 23 states,” he said on X, with most of them concentrated in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. “And we are winning!” By comparison, Elias filed 20 voting-related lawsuits in 14 states at this point in the 2020 election cycle, making him more than three times as litigious this time.

His anti-Trump legal war room includes a for-profit operation he founded in 2020 called Democracy Docket LLC, which employs 16 and is housed in the same office as his law firm, records show. The digital platform tracks several hundred voting-related cases and publishes a weekly organ distributed to more than 225,000 paid subscribers (at $120 a year), who include lawyers, politicians, and journalists.

A sister operation, Democracy Docket Legal Fund, supports election litigation to protect the voting rights of primarily minority voters. Another spinoff, the Democracy Docket Action Fund, raises money for voting rights lawsuits. According to the Capital Research Center, the two organizations are bankrolled by millions of dollars in so-called dark money, including from leftwing billionaire George Soros – whom Elias has called “a hero.” Through these vehicles, Elias has virtually “unlimited funding” to challenge any voting law in any state if he thinks it will help his party and his Democratic clients win elections, according to Americans for Public Trust, a government watchdog group based in Alexandria, Va.

While Elias publicly claims he’s “defending free and fair elections,” it’s clear from his actions behind the scenes that his motives are purely partisan, critics say. Last month, he sent a letter to Virginia state election officials threatening to sue them if they don’t remove Cornel West, the presidential nominee of the leftwing Justice for All Party, from the state ballot. Elias is also trying to keep West, a progressive black college professor, off the ballot in 15 other states, including key battlegrounds. These efforts clearly have nothing to do with voting rights. Elias is simply worried West will bleed off enough votes from his Democratic client Kamala Harris to cost her victories in states where she is leading by razor-thin margins against Trump.

In a column he wrote last year for Democracy Docket, Elias admitted: “A vote for No Labels, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or any other third-party candidate is effectively a vote for Trump.” 

In addition, Elias is quietly working with immigrant advocacy groups that want to make it possible for noncitizens to vote. In August, for example, Elias stepped in to represent El Pueblo in its quest to stop North Carolina’s State Board of Elections from removing noncitizens from voter registration rolls as required by a 2023 law. An estimated 325,000 “unauthorized” immigrants reside in the state.

RealClearInvestigations has learned that Elias supports another group that provides “compassionate” pro-bono legal services to immigrants who have entered the United States, many illegally.

Elias and his wife Brenley, also a lawyer, are listed as “donors” on a mailing list kept by Just Neighbors, which partners with Justice for Our Neighbors, operating in the D.C.-Maryland area. The group’s website says it provides free lawyers to help illegal immigrants get out of detention, obtain asylum status, and avoid deportation. “Populations served: Individuals who are not in legal immigration status,” the website states, and “individuals with criminal histories.”

It’s not known if the Eliases have actually provided pro-bono legal services to illegal aliens. Elias and an attorney representing him did not respond to requests for comment.

Nevertheless, as more than a dozen jurisdictions run by Democrats now allow noncitizens to vote in some local elections, the push to redefine who is eligible for the franchise promises to become an ever more potent and divisive issue in American politics. Much of this debate will almost certainly be hashed out in the courtroom battles and behind-the-scenes political maneuvering that are Marc Elias’ special practice. 

Paul Sperry is an investigative reporter for RealClearInvestigations. He is also a longtime media fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Sperry was previously the Washington bureau chief for Investor’s Business Daily, and his work has appeared in the New York Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Houston Chronicle, among other major publications.

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

As should be evident by now, Donald Trump is about 90% bombast and 10% substance when it comes to policy matters. But every now and then one of his word bombs finds its mark, as this one did when he dissed the presumptuous little pissant who shuttled-in from Kiev last week to embark upon still another American treasure hunt. Referring to Zelensky, the Donald averred,

“…(he’s) the greatest salesman in history. Every time he comes into the country, he walks away with 60 billion dollars.”

My god, times are indeed desperate when the once and former Peace Party of America is represented by the likes of Kamala “lethal force” Harris and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, who saw fit to conduct a photo op ghoulishly signing artillery shells that are designed to blow to smithereens anyone in their glide path—man, woman, child or combatant. That is to say, we’ve reached the point, apparently, where the only hope to stop Washington’s vile War Machine is Donald J. Trump.

Still, we dare not be naive. Trump did not spend a lifetime delving deep into world history or thinking about how to promote a peaceful Taftian approach to an America First foreign policy in the world of 2024. The Donald’s sole preoccupation and expertise all along has been the promotion of The Donald.

Indeed, he actually had so little regard for the cause of world peace that he saw fit to populate his last administration with its sworn enemies—John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Mad Dog Mattis, Gina Haspel, Nikki Haley and Victoria Nuland, among a legion of other neocons and hawks. And when these warmongers brought him the transparently false flag “gas attack” on Douma in 2018 he didn’t hesitate to order “bombs away”.

Then again, what did the tiny god-forsaken hell-hole in Syria, with a GDP equal to 7.3 hours of annual US output and no blue water Navy or long range Air Force, have to do with the security of the US Homeland? Or with Making America Great Again?

Absolutely nothing, of course. The Douma bombing that Trump sanctioned was actually just another spasmodic strike of the War Machine attempting to enforce a US Imperium that is bankrupting America and making the world a far more dangerous place then it would otherwise be.

But this week’s contretemps at the Scranton munitions factory may be just what the doctor ordered to transform the Donald into the statesman who finally brought the Empire Home, and thereby at least slowed the nation’s headlong rush to fiscal Armageddon. That’s because for the Donald, policy positions are mainly a club to attack opponents and enemies.

So by coming to the ultra-swing state of Pennsylvania 40 days before what is likely to be the closest election in US history, Zelensky and his Deep State and military-industrial complex patrons have become the Donald’s mortal enemies. And about that we should know one thing by now without doubt.

To wit, the Donald is an angry, egomaniacal hot mess who gives the idea of holding a grudge a wholly new definition. So if elected, he will surely do all in his power to defenestrate Zelensky and cause the Deep State War Machine to suffer a humiliating defeat in Ukraine by flying to, say Budapest, and cutting a deal with Putin that does end the Ukraine proxy war very quickly indeed.

And he can do just that because the election interference of the once and current clown of Ukraine was so blatant that even the neocon hawks who dominate GOP national security policy on Capitol Hill have had their water shut-off by the revulsion of their own rank and file. For instance, Senator Ted Cruz, who ordinarily sports a very blackish plume of hawkish feathers, had this to say:

“Who the hell is Zelensky to be trying to interfere in our election? the arrogance of this guy,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on Wednesday in his “Verdict” podcast. “And the guy, I’ve got to say, is an absolute moron for coming to the U.S. six weeks before the election and attacking Trump and Vance. 

“This is just dumb on his part, because if Trump wins, he’s got a huge problem that just got bigger,” Cruz added.

The underlined phrase tells you all you need to know. The vast GOP majority is bolting from the authorized neocon position, leaving perhaps the likes of Lindsay Graham all by his lonesome out on the bleeding edge of the war paint parade.

Still, it just keeps getting better. The Dems have slid so far into the TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) tank that they are positioning themselves as bellicose, latter day McCarthyites. Yet these kinds of attacks by their presidential candidate are only sure to fire-up the GOP’s partisan juices, meaning there will be precious little Republican resistance to the Donald’s likely Inauguration Day actions to end the proxy war on Russia.

Harris in her remarks took a veiled swipe at Trump and Vance, saying “some in my country” would “force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory.”

“These proposals are the same of those of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” she said. “And let us be clear: They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”

Puleeese. There is nothing very “sovereign” about a tyrannical administrative unit put together by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev that had no prior organic national history of its own among the Russian, Polish, Lithuanian, Swedish, Austrian, Mongol and Turkish Empires that contested the Ukrainian steepes over the centuries before 1920. Nor would its partition today amount to anything remotely akin to “surrender”. In fact, quieting the guns, drones, tanks, artillery shells and warplanes along the line of contact in Ukraine would bring peace to the region, even as it spared what remains of the Ukrainian military age population and economic infrastructure from the senseless carnage now rampant all across the land.

Better still, the morning after the impending Trump-Putin territorial partition, which will likely carve away the Donbas and the Black Sea rim from a demilitarized, NATO-free rump of Ukraine, the dog that doesn’t bark will literally change the course of history. That is to say, the Baltics will not be invaded; Poland will not be occupied; the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin will not be entered by Russian troops; and the Benelux, France and England will slouch merrily onward toward socialist economic and moral decay without any assist from Vlad Putin, at all.

Stated differently, yet again no dominoes are destined to fall when the Washington War Party is forced once more to pack up the Empire and go home from the hideously misbegotten adventure in Ukraine. And by now it is deeply familiar with retreat, as in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and various lesser sites of previous imperial failure and humiliation.

Yet, hopefully, this time will be different. Perhaps this time a one-off defeat can be transformed into a history-making pivot away from Empire and the Warfare State to a renewal of America’s pre-1914 commitment to “no entangling alliances” and peaceful commerce with the rest of the world.

In that context, Donald Trump may become history’s paladin of salvation from the boot heels of the American Empire, but it will be up to the “Rescue the Republic” team led by Bobby Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard to ensure that the entire hegemonic framework of national security policy which spawned this calamity will be discredited, repudiated and abandoned in favor of a non-interventionist foreign policy consistent with America’s Republican tradition and future economic health and survival.

Needless to say, the one and only place to start is by “starving the beast” on the Pentagon and Langley side of the Potomac. That is to say, only be exploring what it would take to cut the defense budget by 50% can the outlines of a 21st century Fortress America national security policy be appreciated.

Such a deep cut in the Pentagon’s current hideously bloated budget would still leave $450 billion per year to insure the security and liberty of the American homeland. Not only is that more than enough, but the number itself has an uncanny level of historical verisimilitude.

As it happens, that was the level of the defense budget in today’s dollars of purchasing power when Bobby Kennedy’s uncle gave his powerful American University speech in June 1963. This soaring oration was delivered at the height of the cold war when the Soviet Union was still at the peak of its industrial and military vigor and just months after the Cuban Missile Crisis when the world had looked into the abyss of nuclear Armageddon.

Needless to say, the conventional politicians of the time were in a mode of full-throated anti-Soviet belligerence, yet JFK saw fit to make the greatest peace speech ever delivered by an American president. He well understood that at the then current level of defense spending, America had more than enough military capacity and deterrence power to discourage any would be aggressor, but that an adequate defense capability was but a pre-condition for the true security of a peaceful de-militarized world:

I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children–not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women–not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.

Since then there have been two huge changes in global geopolitics that have made the world far, far less threatening than the one JFK had faced months earlier during October 1962. To wit:

• The massively militarized, economically autarkic Soviet Empire has disappeared into the dustbin of history.

• The incipient militarized state in Red China under Mao failed five decades ago and was turned outward and transformed into a commercial export powerhouse by Deng Xiaoping after the early 1990s.

These epochal changes have profound significance for America’s homeland security. In the absence of a massively militarized autarkic state foe capable of global military power projection, the way is once again clear for a far more modest Fortress America national security posture.

To the point, today’s Russia is but a shadow of the Soviet Union with a GDP of just $2 trillion versus the $50 trillion of Europe and North America. And rather than absorbing upwards of one-third of GDP as in Soviet times, Russia’s paltry $60 billion defense budget prior to its special operation in Ukraine amounted to just 3.5% of GDP.

Even more importantly, Soviet Russia was a closed system with virtually no economic commerce with the world outside the communist bloc. Therefore it had nothing to lose economically in the event of an aggressive military assault on the west and the global conflagration which would have ensued.

To the contrary, China’s very economic modus operandi depends upon $3.5 trillion per year of exports to the outside world. The material prosperity in China that has given the ruling communist party an extended lease on life would collapse in a few months if Beijing even attempted a military assault on Western Europe or the United States. So PLA bombing of 4,000 Walmart stores in America will never happen. Nor will Chinese marines ever be landing on the California shores.

Accordingly, the United States today does not need a globalized, two-and-one-half war fighting capability that even JFK thought necessary in the early 1960s. Yet Washington continues to stand-up twice JFK’s military budget in real terms and maintain a global network of bases, power projection capabilities, alliances, commitments, interventions and occupations that were not even necessary in 1963.

As a practical matter, America’s ostensible “enemies” today have no offensive or invasionary capacity at all. Russia has only one aircraft carrier—a 1980s era vessel which has been in dry-dock for repairs since 2017 and is equipped with neither a phalanx of escort ships nor a suite of attack and fighter aircraft—and at the moment not even an active crew.

Likewise, China has just three aircraft carriers—two of which are refurbished rust buckets purchased from the remnants of the old Soviet Union, and which carriers do not even have modern catapults for launching their strike aircraft.

Indeed, invasion of the American homeland would require a massive conventional armada of land, air and sea-based forces many, many times larger than the military behemoth that is now funded by Washington’s $900 billion defense budget. The logistical infrastructure that would be needed to control the vast Atlantic and Pacific Ocean moats surrounding North America and to sustain an invasion and occupation force of the US mainland is so mind-mindbogglingly vast as to be scarcely imaginable.

For want of doubt, the graphic below compares Washington’s 11 carrier battle groups, which cost about $25 billion each including their escort ships, suites of aircraft and electronic and missile capabilities, with those of the other major powers. Self-evidently, none of the non-NATO countries shown in the red area of the graphic—China, India, Japan, Russia or Thailand—will be steaming their tiny 3, 2 and 1 carrier battle groups toward the shores of either California or New New Jersey any time soon. An invasionary force that had any chance at all of surviving a US fortress defense of cruise missiles, drones, jet fighters, attack submarines and electronics warfare would need to be 100X larger.

Yet there is no GDP in the world—$2 trillion for Russia, $3.5 trillion for India or $18 trillion for China—that is even remotely close in size to the $50 to $100 trillion GDP that would be needed to support such an invasionary force without capsizing the home economy.

At the same time, the 11 US carrier battle groups, which will cost upwards of $1.2 trillion over the next decade, would have no role in a continental Fortress America defense at all. They would be sitting ducks in the blue waters, and far less effective than aircraft and missile defenses based in the North American interior.

In short, these massively expensive forces have no purpose other than global power projection and the conduct of wars of invasion and occupation abroad. That is, they are white elephant military accoutrements of a day gone by, not even remotely relevant to a proper Fortress America defense in 2024.

In today’s world, in fact, the only theoretical military threat to America’s homeland security is the possibility of nuclear blackmail. That is to say, a First Strike capacity so overwhelming, lethal and effective that an enemy could simply call out checkmate and demand Washington’s surrender.

An absolutely invulnerable triad (air, sea and land-based) nuclear deterrent can be funded for just $75 billion per year, or barely 6% of the current national defense budget. Much of the rest has nothing to do with securing the American Homeland behind the great Atlantic and Pacific Ocean moats from conventional attack and, in fact, is useful mainly for power projection abroad and operating the now obsolete global network of cold war alliances and bases stretching across the globe.

*  *  *

The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

30 Miles!!!!

A U.S. Coast Guard helicopter crew on Thursday rescued a man spotted floating on a cooler in the sea, dozens of miles off Florida’s Gulf Coast after Hurricane Milton struck.

The Coast Guard said an Air Station Miami helicopter crew rescued the captain of a fishing vessel called “Capt. Dave” 30 miles off Longboat Key.

He was transferred to Tampa General Hospital to undergo further treatment, officials said in an Oct. 10 statement.

As The Epoch Times’ Katabella Roberts reports below, the Coast Guard said the man survived because he was wearing a life jacket and had an emergency position locator beacon and a cooler.

“This man survived in a nightmare scenario for even the most experienced mariner,” Dana Grady, the St. Petersburg command center chief of the U.S. Coast Guard, said.

The captain of the fishing vessel and a crew member first reported needing assistance about 20 miles off John’s Pass in Florida on Monday. A Coast Guard Station Sand Key rescue boat crew and an Air Station Clearwater rescue helicopter crew were deployed to the scene, according to the Coast Guard.

The captain and the crew members were rescued and brought back to Air Station Clearwater in “good condition.”

The boat was left adrift and “salvage arrangements were to be made,” the Coast Guard said.

On Wednesday, the owner of the fishing vessel informed the Coast Guard that the captain had returned to the boat at about 3 a.m. to make some repairs but had failed to check in.

“Watchstanders were able to make radio contact with the captain who reported the rudder was fouled with a line and became disabled during his transit back to port,” the Coast Guard said.

At the time of the rescue operation, the weather was “quickly deteriorating” as Hurricane Milton approached, with waves reaching six to eight feet and winds of around 30 mph, according to the Coast Guard.

Air Station Miami airplane crews fly over Florida’s west coast looking for people in distress and assessing damage, on Oct. 10, 2024. Courtesy of Mike O’Keefe/U.S. Coast Guard

The captain was instructed by the Coast Guard to put on a life jacket and “stay with the boat’s emergency position indicating a radio beacon.”

The Coast Guard lost communication with the captain at about 6:45 p.m. on Wednesday.

Search and rescue teams eventually spotted him adrift with the cooler at about 1:30 p.m. on Thursday.

The Coast Guard shared video footage of the rescue on social media platform X.

#Breaking An @USCG Air Station Miami 65 helicopter crew rescued a man clinging to a cooler approximately 30 mi. off Longboat Key.

The man was taken to Tampa General Hospital for medical care.

Sector St. Pete lost communications w/ the man at approx. 6:45 p.m., Wed. #SAR pic.twitter.com/64wSHuRAeH

— USCGSoutheast (@USCGSoutheast) October 10, 2024

It shows the captain kneeling on the cooler as a Coast Guard helicopter from Air Station Miami approaches. A crew member is then lowered into the water before swimming toward the captain. The video ends before he is hoisted out of the sea.

The rescue came after Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, on Wednesday evening as a powerful Category 3 storm, bringing with it powerful winds, deadly storm surges, and flooding.

At least 10 people are believed to have died in the storm. Search and rescue operations are continuing.

Authored by Nick Braynt via nickbryantnyc.com,

Andre Damian Williams Jr., U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, once again has the distinction of covering up child sex trafficking. He received that distinction for overseeing a federal grand jury that didn’t indict Sean “Diddy” Combs on a single count of child sex trafficking and/or molestation. 

Before I address Williams’ new offenses against children, I should offer a reminder about his prior offenses. Williams was appointed the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York in December of 2018, and he became the point-man for the Epstein cover-up. He was slated to oversee the trial of Jeffrey Epstein, but Epstein became preoccupied with his death. Williams, however, oversaw the Ghislaine Maxwell trial, which was a travesty of justice even before it commenced: Federal prosecutors only indicted Maxwell on one-count of child trafficking, even though her and Epstein had trafficked children for approximately 25 years. Moreover, the federal prosecutors were aware of over 30 child Epstein trafficking victims, but they only called four victims as witnesses, and those victims had been exclusively molested by Epstein and Maxwell. The federal prosecutors were aware of various Epstein procurers (pimps) and numerous perpetrators. But the prosecutors’ flagrant objective was a cover up of the procurers (pimps) and perpetrators in the Epstein network. One-count of child trafficking carries a 15-year to life sentence, and Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years. 

In the wake of Maxwell’s trial, Williams said the following with a straight face: “Today’s sentence holds Ghislaine Maxwell accountable for perpetrating heinous crimes against children. This sentence sends a strong message that no one is above the law and it is never too late for justice. We again express our gratitude to Epstein and Maxwell’s victims for their courage in coming forward, in testifying at trial, and in sharing their stories as part of today’s sentencing.” His statements were rather ironic, because he just facilitated the cover-up of the largest child trafficking network ever acknowledged by US law enforcement. The cover-up of a crime is aiding and abetting that crime, so Williams is guilty of aiding and abetting child trafficking.

Williams’ offenses against children were again on display as he oversaw the Combs’ grand jury that returned the following indictments against Combs.

• One count of racketeering conspiracy 
• One count of sex trafficking by force, fraud, or coercion
• One count of transportation for purposes of prostitution

Two of the sexual assault lawsuits that are pending against Combs were filed by minors. One of those lawsuits was filed by Liza Gardner who alleges that Combs raped her when she was 16 years old. A second lawsuit, filed by “Jane Doe,” alleges that minions of Combs flew her from Detroit to New York City when she was 17 years old, where Combs plied her with alcohol and took turns raping her with two other men. The latter is a blatant case of the interstate sex trafficking of a minor, but it seems to have been overlooked by Williams and his cadre in the Southern District. Either Williams thought she was lying or he’s covering up Combs’ child trafficking. 

Combs is charged with one count of “racketeering conspiracy” but, thus far, his co-conspirators haven’t been indicted. Ghislaine Maxwell, too, was indicted on multiple conspiracies:

• One count conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts
• One count of conspiracy to transport minors to participate in illegal sex acts 
• One count of sex trafficking conspiracy

Though Maxwell was indicted on multiple conspiracies, Williams’ office didn’t indict one of her co-conspirators. Combs has also been indicted on conspiracy, but his co-conspirators have not been indicted. Is the Combs’ case history repeating itself?

According to a BBC article, “Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs faces more than 100 new assault allegations,” a Texas-based attorney, Tony Buzbee, is representing “more than 100” alleged victims of Combs. And he maintains that 25 of the alleged victims he is representing were minors when they were molested by Combs et al, including an alleged victim who was nine years old at the time. Like Epstein, Buzbee believes that Combs had connections to Mount Olympus. “The names will shock you,” he said at a press conference. Combs engaged in the trafficking of adults and minors for years. Also like Epstein, how could Combs pull off such heinous crimes for years without a little help from his friends in state and/or federal law enforcement?

Combs is now on suicide watch. The federal corrections officers at Manhattan’s Metropolitan Correctional Center excelled at ensuring Epstein’s death either by gross negligence or outright malfeasance. Combs is incarcerated at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. So perhaps Combs jailers in Brooklyn will prove to be more competent than Epstein’s jailers in Manhattan?

Epstein and Maxwell had a penchant for hidden cameras and blackmail, and they molested children for 25 years. Combs also had a penchant for hidden cameras and a penchant for blackmail. Lil Rod’s sexual assault lawsuit filed against Combs was our first inkling of P. Diddy’s hidden cameras and blackmail.

But, since then, numerous sources have stated that Combs homes had clandestine cameras. The New York Post reported the following: “One of the Department of Homeland Security agents who helped raid Diddy’s Florida abode claimed that the music mogul had rooms that were clearly ‘dedicated to sex’ with cameras all around. ‘So if you were in those sex parties, you were being recorded from every possible angle, including angles you wouldn’t have known about,’ the source said, referring to the sometimes days-long orgies he called “freak offs” where drugged-up victims were allegedly forced to have sex with male prostitutes.”

A former bodyguard for Combs, Gene Deal, divulged that he had an affinity for blackmailing the high and mighty. He said: “I don’t think it’s only celebrities gonna be shook. He had politicians in there; he had princes in there. He also had a couple of preachers in there.”

Suge Knight, the incarcerated, former CEO Death Row Records, has stated that Combs is an FBI informant, and that’s the reason he’s been given a Get Out of Jail Free card for his heinous crimes over the years. Granted, Knight and Combs are antagonistic towards each other, and Knight certainly isn’t a cherub, but sometimes the truth has a way of percolating on the streets. Knight also believes that Combs might be an endangered species, because of the secrets he harbors.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams isn’t a cherub either, nor is he your average U.S. Attorney. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is a position whose occupants have included future judges, senators, cabinet members, and a New York City mayor. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is considered to be the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan. 

According to 28 U.S. Code § 544, a U.S. attorney takes an “oath to execute faithfully his duties.” But Williams disregarded his oath when he facilitated the cover-up of the Epstein/Maxwell trafficking network. So, what would motivate the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan to disregard his or her oath, especially for such egregious crimes? Williams cherishes his power and doesn’t want to lose it and/or Williams himself is compromised and/or Williams and his family has/have been threatened.

Williams has spent a lot of time among political shakers and movers. He worked for John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. Williams was then a “body man” for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe. In politics, a body man is a ubiquitous personal aide or assistant. 

Former Virginia Governor Terry McAullife has certainly been tainted by allegations of corruption. Quoting the New York Times: “Mr. McAuliffe is a walking symbol of the wretched excess of the Clinton years. He raised millions in special-interest money for President Clinton’s campaign.” McAuliffe founded a company, GreenTech Automotive, which the Virginia Economic Development Partnership concluded was a visa-for-sale scheme. McAulliffe resigned from the company. The FBI scrutinized $120,000 donation made to McAulliffe’s Virginia gubernatorial campaign by Chinese national Wang Wenliang. McAulliffe initially denied knowing Wang until a preponderance of evidence linked him to Wenliang, who also donated $2 million to the Clinton Foundation.

In addition to aiding purportedly corrupt, political heavyweights, Williams received substantial funding from the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans. Williams parents immigrated from Jamaica to the United States, which made him eligible for the fellowship. Thirty Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships are awarded every year with a selection rate of 1.2%. Each fellow receives up to $90,000 in funding toward their graduate education. Williams attended Yale Law School on a Soros fellowship. (Prior to attending law school, Williams graduated with a BA in economics from Harvard.)

Peter Soros is the son of Paul & Daisy, and nephew of George Soros. Peter is on the Board of the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans, and he also has the distinction of being circled twice in Epstein’s “Black Book.” Epstein’s house manager Alfredo Rodriquez purloined the Black Book, and he circled those who he perceived as being in cahoots with Epstein with regards to pedophilic pandering. Peter Soros reportedly being in cahoots with Epstein and also on the Board of an organization that gave William’s a substantial fellowship could be a very bizarre coincidence or it could be something more ominous.

If, or until, Williams indicts Combs on multiple counts of child trafficking, he will play the same role that he played for Epstein regarding the coverup of child trafficking and abuse.

In what some have called a panic/desperation negotiating tactic, Boeing has announced (late on a Friday afternoon) that it will slash its workforce by 10% as the pummeled planemaker struggles with a cash-crunch amid a drawn-out strike and ongoing quality control (to put it nicely) issues.

In a memo to employees, CEO Kelly Ortberg noted that the reductions will include executives, managers and employees, warning that:

“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together.”

Boeing ended 2023 with 171,000 employees.

The company said it expects to report third quarter revenue of $17.8 billion, and a loss per share of $9.97, according to preliminary figures.

The company unveiled the measures and the earnings figures as it seeks to get its negotiations with labor unions back on track.

Boeing has made two offers for higher wages, both of which were turned down by workers.

About 33,000 employees at its main Seattle-area facilities have been on strike for a month now, devastating production and draining Boeing’s reserves.

The latest talks collapsed earlier this week, with no clear path when and how they might resume.

Boeing shares tumbled after hours, erasing the day’s gains…

Ortberg also said the company has notified customers that the first deliveries of the 777X are now expected in 2026, citing the ongoing work stoppage and flight test pause.

Read the full press release below:

“While our business is facing near-term challenges, we are making important strategic decisions for our future and have a clear view on the work we must do to restore our company,” said Kelly Ortberg, Boeing president and chief executive officer.

“These decisive actions, along with key structural changes to our business, are necessary to remain competitive over the long term. We are also focusing on areas that are critical to our future and will ensure we have the balance sheet necessary to invest, support our people and deliver for our customers.”

Commercial Airplanes expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $3.0 billion on the 777X and 767 programs. The company now anticipates first delivery of the 777-9 in 2026 and the 777-8 freighter in 2028, resulting in a pre-tax earnings charge of $2.6 billion. This schedule and resulting financial impact are based on an updated assessment of the certification timelines to address the delays in flight testing of the 777-9, as well as anticipated delays associated with the IAM work stoppage. Commercial Airplanes also plans to conclude production of the 767 freighter and recognize a $0.4 billion pre-tax charge on the program, which also reflects impacts from the IAM work stoppage. Beginning in 2027, the company will solely produce 767-2C aircraft in support of the KC-46A Tanker program. Commercial Airplanes expects to report third quarter revenue of $7.4 billion and operating margin of (54.0) percent.

Defense, Space & Security expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $2.0 billion on the T-7A, KC-46A, Commercial Crew, and MQ-25 programs. The T-7A program pre-tax charge of $0.9 billion was driven by higher estimated costs on production contracts in 2026 and beyond. The KC-46A program pre-tax charge of $0.7 billion reflects the decision to conclude production on the 767 freighter and impacts of the IAM work stoppage. Results also include unfavorable performance on other programs. Defense, Space & Security expects to report third quarter revenue $5.5 billion and operating margin of (43.1) percent.

Finally, a quick thought for all the other corporations out there…

*BOEING PRELIM 3Q REV. $17.8B, EST. $18.58B
*BOEING EXPECTS TO RECOGNIZE ABOUT $5 BILLION EARNINGS CHARGES

going woke was not such a great idea https://t.co/rF33WdGSgz pic.twitter.com/cwmw6izvsH

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 11, 2024

Live by the capitalist sword, DEI by the socialist sword…

Goldilocks it wasn’t… as inflation macro data surprised to the upside and growth macro data to the downside (we love the smell of stagflation in the morning)…

Source: Bloomberg

… but that didn’t stop stocks soaring for the fifth straight week, with Small Caps exploding higher today (back into the green for the week)…

…as “most shorted” stocks saw a massive squeeze higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, a market wrap would not be complete without discussing the shitshow in Shanghai as Chinese stocks witnessed the greatest volatility since their meltdown in 2015, capping almost $500 billion of combined losses in mainland and Hong Kong markets, as investors demanded even more stimulus than authorities in Beijing have already pledged.

The CSI 300 Index’s weekly trading range – the gap between high and low prices – surged above 600 index points this week for the first time since July 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

Back then, Chinese markets witnessed an exodus of foreigners driven by mounting economic concerns and a government crackdown on traders which only exacerbated the panic.

Source: Bloomberg

This time, the turbulence is driven by sluggish consumer demand that threatens even the scaled-down growth ambitions of the country. The index’s 10-day and 20-day realized volatility also rose to a nine-year high.

Notably, the rise in macro surprise data has come as financial conditions have loosened to their ‘easiest’ since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw the 45th all-time-high of the year, but none of the prior 44 have occurred alongside this elevated a level of volatility; this will be the first week of the year where the VIX has closed above 20 every day, and so ongoing elevated risk is expected as we progress through October…

Source: Bloomberg

The vol term structure is notably upward-sloping into the election now (and the coincidental FOMC meeting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very mixed today and on the week the short-end dramatically outperforming (practically unch on the week as the long-end blew out)…

Source: Bloomberg

After a huge flattening last week, the yield curve steepened by the most since the start of August this week with 2s10s dropping to inversion to start the week and steepening to erase the post-payrolls plunge by the end…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations rose modestly this week (with all the focus on 2025 as 2024 remains priced for less than 2 full rate cuts now)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second straight week, testing up to August’s highs before stalling a little today…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, Gold extended yesterday’s rebound to end the week higher, finding support at $2600 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was flat today holding on to gains on the week (with WTI back above $75)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin exploded back higher today (from $59,000 to $63,000), to end the week solidly in the green (after testing near one-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the start of Bitcoin’s rip on the back of surging liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this weekend represents the two year anniversary from the bear market lows. The S&P is up 66% from the lows in October 2021, helped by and endless supply of liquidity from global central planners…]

Source: Bloomberg

BUT… the last week or two has seen liquidity start to contract a little (even as stocks soared to record-er highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the money-printers get back to work… or will stocks sink into the election (which Trump is now leading in all the prediction markets – but not the polls)?

Source: Bloomberg

There’s no bears left…

Source: Bloomberg

…well maybe some…

San Francisco is gearing up to shut down 9% of its public schools in a desperate move to fix a massive budget deficit. With student enrollment plummeting and pandemic relief funds drying up, the city is set to close or merge 11 out of its 121 schools, leaving the future of thousands of students and teachers hanging in the balance.

The proposal, which was announced late Tuesday, comes as the school district faces a whopping $113 million in cuts by 2026, or risk a dreaded state takeover. “Without a balanced budget and a plan to consolidate our resources, we risk a state takeover,” warned Superintendent Matt Wayne, adding that such a takeover would “further deplete resources directed to our schools, erode our collective decision-making power, and likely compound educational disparities for our most vulnerable students.”

The schools on the chopping block serve about 2,000 kids, while another two will merge with other locations, according to local reports. And it’s not just the school closures – San Francisco’s school district has already been slashing jobs and cutting back on school supplies. Things could get worse when the final list of schools is voted on next month by the school board, Bloomberg reports.

This is the latest blow to a city grappling with skyrocketing homelessness and a fentanyl crisis. San Francisco’s public school enrollment has plunged by over 4,000 students in the last seven years – costing the district $80 million. By 2032, they’re expecting to lose another 4,600 students thanks to falling birth rates and demographic shifts.

Feeding the ‘Doom Loop’

The planned school closures are more than just a budgetary issue – they are a reflection of the larger economic “doom loop” San Francisco finds itself trapped in. As described by the San Francisco Chronicle, the city’s economic ecosystem is spiraling as the decline of core public services like schools accelerates a broader exodus of residents and businesses.

Thanks to crime, filth, and the pandemic – downtown SF has seen a sharp reduction in foot traffic as remote work has left office buildings and businesses empty. This shift has eroded the city’s tax base, leading to budget shortfalls across vital services. Now, with the closure of schools, families may be even more likely to leave the city, taking their children and spending power with them.

The doom loop is driven by a vicious cycle: diminished public services push people and businesses away, shrinking the tax revenue the city relies on to fund those very services. The closure of schools, much like the rise in homelessness and the overdose epidemic, threatens to further compound the fact that San Francisco is a city in decline, locked in a downward spiral.

As San Francisco’s public institutions falter, the question looms – how much longer can the city sustain these losses before it hits a tipping point?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.

A set of New York Times/Siena College Senate Polls shows Republicans are ahead in three crucial Senate races they need to win to take control of the Senate.

• Florida: Scott 49%: Mucarsel-Powell 40%

• Montana: Sheehy 52%: Tester 44%

• Texas: Cruz 48%: Allred 44%

In addition, Cook Political (paywalled)

Cook Political

Bear in mind, Cook Political uses “Tossup” liberally. That emphasizes MT leans Republican.

On Wisconsin

On October 8, Cook Political commented Wisconsin Senate Shifts From Lean Democrat To Toss Up

With less than a month until Election Day, many of the Senate battlegrounds have begun to tighten. Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

Another poll from the respected Marquette Law School last week still showed Baldwin with a seven point edge, 53%-46%. However, private polling from both parties mirrors what our survey found — that this race is within the margin of error — and both Republicans and Democrats view other polls as outliers.

This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable. Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by one point. While Baldwin is still leading independents by eight points, 50%-42%, we have seen an 11-point swing among the bloc toward Hovde since August.

Hovde, a self-funding venture capitalist, was initially touted as ….

The rest is paywalled.

Blue Wall Cracks

On October 9, a Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI

Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling seven issues…

The economy:

• PA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
• WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Immigration:

• PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
• WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:

• PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
• MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.

Abortion:

• PA: 37 percent say Trump, while 55 percent say Harris;
• MI: 40 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
• WI: 39 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

The conflict in the Middle East:

• PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

As Commander in Chief of the U.S. military:

• PA: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:

• PA: 46 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Trump generally comes out on top except for abortion.

Michigan Senate

The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48 percent of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.

This compares to September when Slotkin received 51 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent support.

In today’s poll, Democrats 98 – 1 percent support Slotkin, while Republicans 92 – 5 percent support Rogers. Independents are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Slotkin and 48 percent supporting Rogers.

Electric Vehicles

That is another outstanding poll for Republicans. Don’t be surprised if this all hinges on EVs.

Likely voters 57 – 34 percent oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles.

Republicans (91 – 5 percent) and independents (58 – 32 percent) oppose government incentives, while Democrats (69 – 18 percent) support them.

The Trump campaign ought to be flooding the airwaves and TV ads in Michigan with the message on EVs.

Pollster Ratings

Republicans tend to knock New York Times polls, but NYT polls are really conducted by Siena College. And according to Nate Silver Siena is one of the top rated pollsters with almost no historical bias.

Quinnipiac University is also an unbiased pollster. This news is very favorable for Republicans.

Final Thoughts

I am a believer in momentum, and momentum has shifted, more so in Senate polls than in the national election. Regardless, Nate Silver lags. I will cover this separately.

Trump remains his own worst enemy. If Trump practiced the debate against Harris, he would not have dug himself into a huge hole. But here we are.

I would not go so far to say for certain that Trump is out of the hole, but at least he is near the edge. No one knows how this will turn out nationally because there is still time for either candidate to make a major error.

However, we can say it is now likely Republicans take the Senate.

After Wednesday’s phone call involving President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the US and Israel have moved closer on achieving consensus regarding Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran. 

There have been reports that Netanyahu is now seeking the approval of his security cabinet, however regional media says that no big resolutions have been reached. The expected big counterstrikes have yet to come, despite Iran firing some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1st.

But The Wall Street Journal has described Iran’s “secret warning” conveyed to other Middle East regional countries this week as it braces for Israel’s potential retaliation.

“Tehran is threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, said Arab officials,” writes WSJ.

Israel could potentially use Jordanian, UAE, or possibly Saudi airspace in such an attack, despite these countries on an official level rejecting such a possibility. We detailed this week that the gulf states are pushing hard for Israel to avoid hitting Iranian oil facilities, on fears that Tehran would in turn authorize its proxies to attack Saudi Aramco sites, like happened in 2019.

According to more from the WSJ:

The Arab officials said the countries that Iran has threatened include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host U.S. troops. These states have told the Biden administration that they don’t want their military infrastructure or airspace to be used by the U.S. or Israel for any offensive operations against Iran, the officials said.

As for America’s gulf allies’ pleading for Israel and the US to not use their airspace for counter-Iran operations, the WSJ has noted further, “The Arab countries’ requests remain informal, a U.S. defense official said.”

A key complication, and one which puts the Saudis in a precarious and delicate position vis-a-vis their allies, is that the United States has bases and a troop presence in the kingdom, including significant US Air Force assets.

Washington has already pledged to help the Israelis repel any future Iranian ballistic missile counterattacks, as it did in the last two rounds of drones and ballistic missiles fired on Israel.

🛢 Bullish #Oil Bets Rose Most in Y.ears After Iran Attack Last Week – Bloomberg
*Net-long positions held by hedge funds, exchange-traded funds and other speculators jumped by the equivalent of 139 million barrels last week, according to a weekly commitments of traders report… pic.twitter.com/CzSuvh1BdA

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) October 11, 2024

A broader Iran-Israel war would certainly see the US pressure the Saudis and GCC to allow American fighter jets based out of the Gulf to engage Iran.

Meanwhile Saudis appear to be taking steps to appease Iran: “As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles said,” Reuters detailed this week.

Prominent black Trump booster Rob Smith has responded to the former president’s condescending screed over ‘brothas’ who are afraid to vote for Kamala Harris. In a now-viral reply, Smith tells Obama: “There is no amount of lecturing or bullying or shaming that you can do that is going to make me change that decision [to vote for Trump].

Watch:

Sorry Obama!

I’m a BLACK MAN

I am voting for DONALD TRUMP on November 5th!

And NO amount of LECTURING or SHAMING is going to change that.

DEAL WITH IT. pic.twitter.com/Y8Z8YStuQu

— Rob Smith (@robsmithonline) October 11, 2024

More:

.@BarackObama should be ashamed for berating, rebuking and scolding Black men, because they won’t vote for Madam Lock Up A Brother…@KamalaHarris. As if we are too stupid to vote our interest and what best for ourselves and our families.

BO, you owe every Black man in America… pic.twitter.com/2WXvqpPcTp

— Vernon Jones (@VernonForGA) October 11, 2024

My name is CJ Pearson. I’m 22 years old. And in 25 days, I’ll be joining millions of other young black men and voting for Donald J. Trump!

And we don’t give a damn about what Barack Obama has to say about it. pic.twitter.com/tKzupKL0N1

— CJ Pearson (@thecjpearson) October 11, 2024

Even CNN slammed Obama!

NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings rips Democrats for being surprised that men don’t want to vote for Harris, calls out Obama for insulting black men.

“This is a political party that thinks gender is just a state of mind, and all of a sudden they’re like, ‘we have trouble with moderate… pic.twitter.com/OCONIkDAHg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 11, 2024

Meanwhile, are you man enough to vote for Kamala?

I present to you the cringiest political ad ever created. pic.twitter.com/P0JMI1caNS

— Champagne Joshi (@JoshWalkos) October 11, 2024

*  *  *

Former President Barack Obama hit the campaign trail for Kamala Harris on Thursday — and hit some flat notes, as he condescendingly scolded black men for their lackluster support of the vice president, even going so far as to accuse them of sexism.  

While Harris seems certain to win the overall black vote, she’s on course to do so by a significantly slimmer margin than recent party standard-bearers. In 2008, 95% of blacks voted for Obama. This year, only 63% of blacks say they’ll vote for Harris, according to a recent NAACP survey. What’s particularly alarming to Democrats is that, among black men under 50, only 49% support Harris, with 26% saying they’ll vote for Trump.   

“We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” said Obama at an unannounced, pre-rally stop at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh. “I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothas.”

Appealing to race, Obama then told the mostly-black group at the campaign office that the choice in 2024 was clear, given that, “on the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences…”

The DNC has sent out Barack Obama to scold Black men and try to shame us into supporting his fellow NON- Foundational Black American candidate Kamala Harris

🤦🏾‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/hq2wvAB7Jv

— Tariq Nasheed 🇺🇸 (@tariqnasheed) October 11, 2024

Having exhorted black men to embrace racism in the voting booth, Obama then suggested the same group’s sexism was at the heart of Harris’ problem with them: 

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that. Because part of it makes me think— and I’m speaking to men directly— part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

“…And now, you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.“

Obama’s remarks seem to reflect a growing sense of desperation — and they seem likely to backfire. It’s bad enough for him to publicly spotlight Harris’ weakness compared to his own performance, but it’s even worse that he felt the best way to remedy the situation was to publicly shame black men — to the point of saying, “you’re lucky Michelle’s not here” — and to accuse black men of sexism. 

I’m tired of Barack Obama lecturing Black men.

— Madison Payton (@MadisonPayton2) October 11, 2024

Reggie Jones, a black “brotha” selling Harris products at the Pittsburgh rally, attributed weak black support for Harris to her record in California. “[It’s] because she locked a whole lot of us up as a prosecutor,” Jones told the New York Post before adding, “I’m just selling her stuff for the money.” 

Meanwhile, the black vote is just one of several crumbling cornerstones of the Democratic electoral coalition. Democratic campaign operatives are sweating bullets as they also see Harris underperforming with Hispanics, Muslims, young people and labor union members.

All aboard the shame train!

Kamala went on “Call Her Daddy” because she’s losing young voters.

She’s got Obama on the campaign trail now lecturing Black men because she’s losing Black voters.

And now, here she is on Univision with a Hispanic accent because she’s losing Latinos.pic.twitter.com/O4KCl4PhCF

— Javon A. Price 🇺🇸 (@JavonAPrice) October 11, 2024

Obama out here telling Black men what they “should” do. He never had a real “Black” experience. He knows nothing about “that life”. He was raised by his White Mother and Grandmother in Hawaii, and attended Harvard. He needs to stop cappin…

— Dr.Darrell Scott (@PastorDScott) October 11, 2024

BREAKING NEWS: @BarackObama sent out by White liberals to “Blackman-splain” to get Black men to vote for @KamalaHarris. Wait, his mother and Kamala’s mother are both “WHITE.”

Obama doesn’t even have Black neighbors, and 99% of his handlers are White.

I don’t have anything in… pic.twitter.com/0cb5WEr0hs

— Vernon Jones (@VernonForGA) October 11, 2024

During Obama’s years in office, there were multiple mass shootings and viral police killings. Not once did Obama lecture police officers or white males. His hallmark is using his identity to denigrate Black men publicly because everyone loves it.

— Charles Preston (@_CharlesPreston) October 11, 2024

Obama views Black ADOS men with the same lens as a casual white man.

He doesn’t really know us.

His energy is white basketball coach at an inner-city Black high school. It’s all thinly veiled derisive contempt, with a dose of disdain, a heap of condescension. #YC4PRES #ADOS https://t.co/XxhzIHIDEO

— Soul American (@SoulAmerican2) October 11, 2024

[ ADOS = American Descendants of Slavery ]  

Read the room. Being patronizing to Black men is what got yall into this mess in the first place. Obama knows better than this. That approach is…not going to work. Do better https://t.co/pPIcU1I5u6

— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) October 10, 2024

NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings rips Democrats for being surprised that men don’t want to vote for Harris, calls out Obama for insulting black men.

“This is a political party that thinks gender is just a state of mind, and all of a sudden they’re like, ‘we have trouble with moderate… pic.twitter.com/OCONIkDAHg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 11, 2024