Perhaps the most interesting angle to attempted Trump assassin Ryan Routh’s recent history in his Ukraine connection. We documented that when he went to Ukraine to recruit for its International Legion in 2022 he was a Western mainstream media darling for a time, having been quoted on behalf of the cause to get more foreign fighters to throw into the battle against Russia by a who’s who of major media sources from FT to Newsweek to the NY Times.

But when he arrived in Ukraine, according to these media reports, the 58-year old Routh himself was considered too old to fight alongside the Ukrainian army. “So plan B,” Routh described to one outlet, “was to come to Kiev and promote the idea of many others coming to join the International Legion. We need thousands of people here to fight alongside Ukrainians.” 

“There are about 190 countries on our planet, and if the governments are not officially sending soldiers here, then we civilians should pick up this torch and make it happen,” he described. He had told Newsweek in a video interview from Ukraine that the war with Russia was as simple as “good vs. evil” and essentially the same as good guys and bad guys in the Hollywood movies Americans grew up with. It was not a gray conflict, he described, but “black and white”.

In March of 2022, just a month into the Russian invasion, he tweeted that everyone around the globe should be willing to volunteer and “fight and die” in Ukraine. Still, much of his time was reportedly spent in a hotel room in the far western city of Lviv.

Among the more bizarre aspects to his campaigning on behalf of the Ukrainian military’s foreign legion were his efforts to recruit US-trained Afghan special soldiers to go to Ukraine’s front lines. The initiative appeared so large in scale (given Routh was seeking to transfer hundreds, or even thousands, of Afghan fighters – according to his words) – that one commentator questions in light of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump: “Who was he working with in the US government that was allowing him to do this?”

In a 2023 interview with the NY Times Routh openly displayed his proclivity toward violent acts by threatening to shoot his critics, and the Times featured the quote almost as if lionizing his commitment to defending Ukraine:

In a telephone interview with The New York Times in 2023, when Mr. Routh was in Washington, he spoke with the self-assuredness of a seasoned diplomat who thought his plans to support Ukraine’s war effort were sure to succeed. But he appeared to have little patience for anyone who got in his way. When an American foreign fighter seemed to talk down to him in a Facebook message he shared with The New York Times, Mr. Routh said, “he needs to be shot.”

There needs to be a full investigation of all the Washington officials and reporters the second would-be Trump assassin has interacted with over the last four years, including Malcom Nance, the entire Vindman clan, and everyone associated with the Helsinki Commission. pic.twitter.com/JErwzeSIzu

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) September 16, 2024

He has received the media attention also apparently as head of the International Volunteer Center in Ukraine. Importantly, he has boasted of having “had partners meeting with [Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense] every week and still have not been able to get them to agree to issue one single visa.” This raises the question of the degree of his involvement with US government officials at the time.

The Times had documented that Routh planned to move volunteers “in some cases illegally, from Pakistan and Iran to Ukraine” – and claimed that many had expressed interests. He further boasted of breaking or at least bending foreign countries’ laws in some cases. “We can probably purchase some passports through Pakistan, since it’s such a corrupt country,” he told NY Times. He announced on Facebook at one point, “Soldiers, please do not call me. We are still trying to get Ukraine to accept Afghan soldiers and hope to have some answers in the coming months… please have patience.”

He also recounted some of this experience in his self-published book, still available on Amazon, which is titled “Ukraine’s Unwinnable War: The Fatal Flaw of Democracy, World Abandonment and the Global Citizen-Taiwan, Afghanistan, North Korea and the end of Humanity.”

As if all of this weren’t shady enough, raising a myriad of questions over who in the US government knew what and when of the future would be Trump shooter, he had connections with Ukraine’s neo-Nazi Azov Brigade (often referenced by its earlier name Azov Battalion). 

🚨BREAKING: Ryan Routh was featured in an AZOV propaganda video in 2022. For those unaware, AZOV is a violent, far-right Ukrainian militia with neo-Nazi origins, notorious for its anti-Russian extremism—and supported by the CIA. Yet the media stays silent. pic.twitter.com/kfHvo6vZWx

— Dr. Simon Goddek (@goddeketal) September 16, 2024

For a brief background review of Azov, even mainstream media has long grudgingly admitted that “in response to the neo-Nazi ideology of the group’s founders, the US had banned the regiment from using American weapons in 2014.” But the State Department more recently claimed it found “no evidence” that the extremist militant group has committed human rights violations or war crimes (in which case US law would prohibit providing weapons or training). This after President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has long been seen paling around with Azov commanders in public appearances.

The US State Department in June of this year announced that it finally lifted a longtime ban on giving weapons and training to Ukraine’s notorious Azov Brigade (often referenced by its earlier name Azov Battalion). All the while, Azov’s members have never been shy about sporting Nazi-inspired patches. 

As of Monday, and with all of these deep Ukraine connections made evident with regard to Ryan Routh, the Zelensky government as well as Azov Brigade are attempting some serious PR damage control. But in the process, their statements serve to confirm Rough’s connections to the neo-Nazi outfit. According to EuroNews:

Meanwhile, a video appeared on social media linking Routh to the Azov Brigade, claiming he participated in a 2022 event to support the unit’s Mariupol brigade.

The Azov Brigade said the event was a peaceful demonstration open to all and that Routh was never part of the unit.

“We would like to officially state that Ryan Wesley Routh has no connection to Azov and has never had any connection to Azov,” the unit said in a statement on X.

So they are literally doing the “mostly peaceful” line. The statement from Azov Brigade continues with an attempt to blame all of this on Russia: “We believe that the spread of the narrative about the possible connection between Azov and Ryan Wesley Routh is playing along with Russian propaganda and discredits the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine and the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine in general,” it added.

And yet, below is an example of something Rough posted to his social media. The GrayZone reported on it before it was deleted by Facebook administrators, presumably amid the FBI/Secret Service investigation: An official Ukrainian military enlistment form Routh posted on his Facebook page, which administrators have deleted.

But one thing is still indisputable based on the piles of public evidence. As geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko says, “The suspect is a Ukro-maniac who’d been radicalized by the Mainstream Media into traveling to Kiev, trying to join the ‘International Legion’…”

Korybko further points out:

There’s no way that the earlier mentioned American “deep state” had no idea who Routh was after he’d already traveled to Kiev to try to join the “International Legion” and then openly told the New York Times about his plans to recruit Afghan soldiers that fled to Pakistan as refugees. He also brazenly boasted about how he’d purchase passports for them from there to facilitate their travel to Ukraine. The FBI might soon “do the meme” and admit that he was “on their radar”, but there’s much more to it.

The Newsweek interview… certainly the mainstream didn’t treat him as just some rando who happened to be passing through war-ravaged Ukraine.

#UKRAINE: Ryan Wesley Routh – who is the suspect in the assassination attempt against Donald Trump today – being interviewed, when he helped recruit foreign fighters for Ukraine 🇺🇦 @DonaldJTrumpJr pic.twitter.com/VuBeRE8Aep

— Russian Market (@runews) September 15, 2024

Clearly, this doesn’t look like a guy who had no connections in Ukraine, or was merely some ‘war tourist’ on the sidelines as the Ukrainian government and Azov would have us believe. Again the question remains: what did the US government know about this radicalized individual and when did they know it? Did he have help from US government officials in his Ukraine travels and recruitment campaign? 

Consumers are furious that ground beef, orange juice, eggs, cocoa, and food in general have skyrocketed in price. For low—and middle-income households, a trip to the supermarket has become a painful experience in the era of Bidenomics. Adding to the strain, the cost of a cup of coffee will rise even higher into the end of the year and likely in the first half of 2025.  

Bloomberg reports that premium arabica beans are experiencing adverse weather conditions in top producer Brazil, pushing prices up in New York to a 13-year high. 

Coffee rallies have been gathering pace from ongoing concerns about harsh weather in top producer Brazil. The nation is wrapping up its 2024-25 harvest and production prospects weakened after heat and dryness hurt fields. Attention is now shifting to next season’s potential, and Brazil has been gripped by its worst drought in decades, threatening further crop damage.-BBG

Arabica futures in New York jumped to $2.6475 per pound in New York, the highest since 2011. Prices are up 40% on the year as shortages of the cheaper robusta beans increase demand for arabica by coffee chains. 

Bloomberg outlines the latest price hikes:

Across the supply chain, the impact of this year’s rally is already evident. JM Smucker Co., whose brands like Folgers and Café Bustelo dominate the US’s at-home coffee market, hiked its prices earlier this summer. Restaurant chain Pret A Manger scrapped its UK coffee subscription that gave customers as many as five drinks per day.

Meanwhile, Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of coffee roaster Luigi Lavazza SpA, told Bloomberg in a separate report that low-cost robusta beans in Vietnam, the world’s top producer of robusta, have experienced adverse weather conditions contributing to a production shortfall, thus fueling prices higher and higher. 

“We’ve never seen something like that in the history of our industry,” Lavazza said, adding, “And what is very special is the long-lasting effect of this.”

Lavazza said the European Union Deforestation Regulation, which will be enforced by the end of 2024, will ensure companies do not source coffee beans from deforested lands. 

“No doubt that the coffee that European roasters are going to buy will cost much more,” he noted, adding, “Companies in the coffee industry are facing very strong headwinds.”

The big takeaway for consumers is that food inflation is very sticky. Get used to higher prices. And somehow, the Marxists in America believe supermarkets are gouging customers.

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The Great Debates

Another in a string of “interesting” weeks! Stocks surged on the week, with the S&P 500 rising 4% and breaking 5,555, which was discussed by many as being a critical level to breach. The Nasdaq led the way, up almost 6% on the week, but many of the laggards started to catch up. ARKK (a proxy for “disruption”) rallied a whopping 10% on the week! The first time in a while that I think it performed like a truly high-beta play on the market!

On the surface, a “simple” week of rallying, but we had some moments of downside, most critically on Wednesday as the S&P opened down more than 1.5% only to stage a “stunning” (at least for me) turnaround, finishing the day up over 1% (the Nasdaq trading was even more volatile).

As we continue to see the market whipsaw (the major indices are below where they rallied to in August, after the early August fear), I think that we can keep this week’s T-Report simple (my travel week was a bit draining) and cover the major bases, by sticking to the theme of “Debates.”

The Presidential Debate

I hate treading into this area as it is fraught with danger. So I will stick to what I think I know, from the data and commentary I’m collecting:

• Unlike the last debate, both Trump and Harris are likely sticking around for the election! (I figured I’d start with something easy).

• According to the betting odds, it seems that Harris has edged up slightly on most betting platforms. Not by much, but I think based on that we can assume that the debate seemed to work in her favor versus his favor (which might be backed up by the fact that Trump has now said he will not do another debate – though that could change on a moment’s notice).

So why did we sell off so hard overnight and at the open only to recover?

• There were some comments regarding AI, which we will discuss later (it certainly helped).

• The markets are pricing in that the Republicans will control the Senate, which means that we can start pricing in a split government and Wall Street does like gridlock. One view, which I agree with, is that if you are voting against someone as opposed to for someone, there is a greater probability of splitting your ticket – helping keep gridlock on the table. Gridlock will be generally good for Wall Street as opposed to the “risk” of a full sweep, which would likely scare the markets.

• As you know, I’ve been avoiding getting very specific on what I think either candidate’s campaign promises will mean for the economy after the election – namely because they are just that – “promises” from politicians on the campaign trail that rarely come to fruition. While I think we all have a sense of how Trump might govern if elected (since he already served 4 years as president) we are all trying to figure out how Harris would govern if elected. What seemed to give a lot of people comfort was a series of stories indicating that she is being pressured by large donors to move to the center. From my seat, she does seem to have changed her messaging over time – from when she was a prosecutor to when she was running for Senate, so maybe she will adopt a policy more centric than what she has advocated for in the fairly recent past. That is a bet that Wall Street seems to be making, and it seems reasonable to me.

The key for the election, from a Wall Street standpoint, seems as simple as:

• Wall Street would like gridlock. The anticipation of gridlock is helping bonds because the market would be able to discount the likelihood of some of the bigger deficit-producing “promises” ever becoming reality.

• Wall Street will like any sense that politicians are already pivoting towards the center as the election nears and they try to win over moderates and independents.

Only 7 more weeks of campaigning!

The Rate Cut Debate

According to the WIRP (Interest Rate Probability on Bloomberg) function, the market has priced in a total of 3 cuts in the next 2 meetings (to be honest, I had to check if the thing is working, because it certainly felt like 4 or more cuts were being priced in).

The meeting this week is priced in at 50/50 for a 50 bp cut. As someone who advocated for a July cut (and even thought 50 in July would be appropriate – Building the Case for Rate Cuts), I should be in the 50 bp camp (it is certainly what I think they should do, but will they?).

The Fed doesn’t like to surprise markets (though it is probably more against surprising on the negative side than on the positive) which leaves them in a bit of a quandary with markets pricing in a 50% chance. At that level, a 25 bp cut would surprise the market negatively (I cannot shake the impression that the contracts used to estimate the WIRP are less aggressive on the cut front than other markets). Let’s also not forget that on 9/11 (a day we should never forget and that still brings tears to my eyes, reliving that horrible time) the market was “only” pricing in a 17% chance of a 50 bp hike.

I’d go 50, but for a group that decided not to cut at all in July, has the data been good enough on the inflation front (maybe) or weak enough on the job front (maybe) to cut 50?

Either way I expect at least one dissent, as at least one person will say they wanted 50 if they go with 25, or someone will argue that 25 was right, if they go with 50. I find the dissent “fascinating” since I think (facetiously) that as far as “Chairmen” go, Mao and Stalin had more dissenters than the Fed Chair gets, which has always seemed weird to me.

Is this a Fed that is willing to cut 50 and risk seeing either an uptick in inflation or job creation? That is probably what will drive the debate at this meeting!

In any case:

• 75 in the next 2 meetings sounds correct (though I’m leaning towards 25 then 50).

• More “interesting” is that the market is pricing in 10 cuts, getting down to 2.86% by next September – which seems far too fast.

  • I’m not sure that the terminal rate will still be in the 2.75% to 2.875% range based on the dots. The median was 2.75% but the average was 2.875%. I don’t see it dropping and could see a case where it moves up a smidge – but that is only useful at the margin.

  • They would need to revise their dots for next year downwards rather significantly! Are they really prepared to do that?

The risk from the Fed is to disappoint holders of longer-dated bonds and equities, with more of the risk coming from what they say about the next year or so, than what they do at this meeting – though a 50 bp cut would allow markets to ignore any hawkish comments (which seems like a path the Fed would not like to go down – as it really would decrease their ability to jawbone).

The AI Debate

From a macro/econ/market perspective, the AI debate remains incredibly important as the AI stocks remain big drivers of most market moves. As discussed in Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, it is a debate surrounding valuations and current (call it next year or so) cost versus benefit. Is the cost of implementing AI outpacing the benefit? Has the market priced in competition or other risks? Or, is the risk still that the market hasn’t yet digested the true impact of AI?

Markets did respond to some industry leaders giving positive comments on the outlook and if “buy the dip” remains strong in any sector, it is the AI and chip sector (though NVDL actually saw the leveraged version of NVDA shares outstanding decrease on the week).

What I’m starting to play with is Open AI o1 (also known as Strawberry). It is designed to be a “reasoning model for solving hard problems.” It seems interesting at first blush. It is much slower than ChatGPT but seems to try to come up with actual answers (rather than what sometimes seems like glorified search results). It wouldn’t tell me who will win the election (something about data only until October 2023) or what the stock market would do (which I guess is bad, since it would be great to day trade this market perfectly and capture all those 1% moves, but probably good, as I’d have less reason to exist).

Speaking of which, I’ve been told this model is scoring 95% on average on the LSAT.

I just started to play with this, but since I’ve been on the “overvalued” side of the equation, I wanted to make sure people see this as soon as possible, as it could be another seminal moment in AI! While everyone was talking 50 bps on Thursday and Friday, this new version was released on September 12th , so I’m not sure how much, if anything, is priced in. However, given the valuations, even with this sort of advancement (if it is truly as impressive as it sounds), was it already priced in?

Bottom Line

My biggest fear, in both directions, for stocks and bonds (and even credit), remains that there seems to be very little depth in terms of liquidity.

Be small, be nervous, and expect volatility to continue – in both directions and for moves to be outsized relative to the news or information flow!

The “peaceful” days of summer seem like a distant memory already, and those days weren’t even that peaceful this summer!

Good luck, and I do wish the Fed would come out at 10am ET, as the hours ahead of the Fed are dull and filled with nothing but time to second guess every position you have, regardless of how much time, effort, and preparation went into setting up those positions!

Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo published a pre-order analysis report on the demand for the iPhone 16 on Sunday following last week’s launch event. He found less demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max and, inversely, more demand for base models. This report contradicts the optimism of many Wall Street analysts who forecasted that new AI Siri features embedded in the new iPhone would spark an upgrade “super cycle.” Apparently, that’s not the case.

Kuo wrote in the report posted on Medium titled “iPhone 16 first weekend pre-order analysis: estimated total sales of about 37 million units; Pro series demand lower than expected,” that his analysis was based on the “latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple’s official websites … I’ve compiled key data on iPhone 16’s first-weekend pre-orders for each model, including pre-order sales, average delivery times, and shipments before pre-order.” 

Here are Kuo’s top findings:

Table item explanations:

1. First Weekend pre-order sales: estimated based on each model’s delivery time and production plans for that period.

2. Average delivery time: results from Apple’s official websites in major iPhone markets 48 hours after pre-orders opened.

3. Shipments before pre-order: Production volume before pre-orders.

Kuo’s conclusion: 

1. iPhone 16 series first-weekend pre-order sales are estimated at about 37 million units, down about 12.7% YoY from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales. The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.

2. The delivery times of the iPhone 16 Pro series are significantly shorter than those of the 15 Pro series. In addition to the shipment increase before the pre-order, the key is that demand is lower than expected, as evidenced by the YoY decline in first-weekend sales.

3. The significant YoY growth in shipments before pre-order for iPhone 16 Pro Max is due to improved tetraprism camera production yields and Apple’s optimistic outlook for demand for this model.

4. One of the key factors for the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the major selling point, Apple Intelligence, is not available at launch alongside the iPhone 16 release. Additionally, intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand.

5. While first-weekend sales of the iPhone 16 Plus and standard version were up YoY, their impact on total iPhone shipments is limited.

6. Despite the YoY decline in first-weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series, the supply chain’s production plans are unlikely to change significantly in the near term. Apple still has opportunities to improve sales through the release of Apple Intelligence and peak season promotions (year-end holiday season in America and Europe and Double 11 in China). These factors will be key points to watch for changes in iPhone demand.

7. Strategies such as adding a tetraprism camera to the 16 Pro and maintaining iPhone 16 series pricing have had a limited help to iPhone 16 first-weekend pre-order sales. Suppose Apple Intelligence releases in 4Q24 and peak season promotions have a limited effect on iPhone 16 shipments. In that case, I believe that Apple will implement more aggressive iPhone product strategies in 2025 to stimulate market demand.

A key takeaway from the report is that consumers are more interested in the base iPhone models during this launch cycle than in the Pro series. This shift could be driven by pricing concerns in an era of elevated inflation and high interest rates, or possibly because the Pro models are too large in size. The exact reasons remain unclear.

In markets, shares of Apple are lower by more than 2%. 

Let’s not forget.

The whole reason AAPL stock levitated from the $170s to $240 is because AI was supposed to spark an iPhone upgrade cycle https://t.co/gnBXPTnvJD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2024

Wall Street’s expectations for a robust iPhone upgrade cycle driven by Siri AI now face serious doubt following this report. 

Futures are flat, erasing an earlier modest gain, ahead of a very busy week which will see the first Fed rate cut since March 2020. As of 7:45am, S&P futures were down fractionally, with small-caps outperforming following a trend from late last week as investors price in a 50bps rate cut on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures are down 0.3% as Semis lag and the Mag7 are mixed and AAPL slumps as much as 2.4% as noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo notes that, based on his first weekend pre-order analysis, demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is lower than expected. There was little reaction in markets to the second attempt to assassinate Donald Trump. Shares of Trump Media & Technology rose as much as 10% in premarket trading after the former president said he has “absolutely no intention of selling” his stake when a lockup expires this week. While JPM’s Andrew Tyler asks rhetorically this morning “let’s see if last week’s bid returns“, it does not look very likely since we just entered the worst 2 week calendar period for the year, and stocks enter a buyback blackout, plus there is no tech conference to spike the euphoric AI narrative yet again. Bond yields are down as the curve bull steepens, pressuring the USD which slides for the 4th day in a row to its lowest level in more than eight months. The move was driven by strength in the yen, which touched the highest since July 2023 amid speculation this week’s slew of central bank decisions will lead to a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan. Commodities are higher with Energy and Metals boosting the index. Today is a light macro day ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales and Weds’ Fed Mtg where the market remains split on 25 o5 50bps.

In premarket trading, Apple shares fall 2.2% as TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo notes that demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is lower than expected, based on his pre-order analysis of the first weekend. Intel rose 1% as the chipmaker officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) shares drop 1.5% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to underweight from equal-weight, saying the household and personal care products company’s growth is set to normalize.
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) shares rise 11% after the diagnostics company released performance data from a study of its blood-based colon cancer screening test candidate.
• Nuvalent (NUVL) shares jump 16% after the drug developer presented updated data from two early-stage trials of its lead cancer programs that impressed Wall Street.
• Stratasys (SSYS) shares rise 6.0% after the three-dimensional printer maker’s board authorized a $50 million share repurchase program. The new repurchase program represents 10% of the company’s current market value, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
• Trump Media (DJT US) rises 1.3%, with the stock set to extend Friday’s gains, after Donald Trump said he has “absolutely no intention of selling” his stake when a lockup period expires later this week.

Stocks have not reacted to the biggest news of the weekend, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump, who is safe after his Secret Service detail opened fire at a man who was wielding an AK47 assault rifle at his West Palm Beach, Florida, golf course Sunday, in what the FBI called an apparent (second) assassination attempt. According to law enforcement officials, Secret Service officers clearing the golf course ahead of Trump spotted a man in the woods with a gun. The suspect — later identified as radical left-wing nutjob 58-year-old Ryan Routh who had previously fought in Ukraine against Russia — fled in a black car but was later detained after a chase.

The start of a long-anticipated US easing cycle takes center stage this week, part of a 36-hour monetary roller coaster that includes policy decisions in Brazil, South Africa the UK and Japan. It’s come down to a virtual coin toss for traders on whether the Fed will go for a 25 or 50 basis-point cut.

“There has rarely been so much uncertainty over central bank intentions,” analysts at Edmond de Rothschild wrote in a note. “They are caught between signs of economic weakness and inflation which is stubbornly resisting a return to the 2% target.”

For Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan, the Fed has scope to make the bigger move and doing more now would probably send the right signal. “We are still sticking with a 50 basis-point call, but it is a debate, internally and within the broader market,” Chang said on Bloomberg TV. “When I talk to investors, 25 versus 50 isn’t so much the debate, but really how does the US growth story look.” That view was echoed by several other top Wall Street strategists, who suggested that the health of the US economy could have more bearing on stocks than the size of the Fed’s rate cut. The flipside, of course, is that a rate cut now with home prices once again rising, will spark another episode of runaway inflation, something which gold at a record $2580 is clearly anticipating.

“If the labor data weaken from here, markets can trade with a risk-off tone regardless of whether the Fed’s first move is 25 or 50 basis points,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote in a note. On the other hand, if jobs were to strengthen, a series of 25 basis-point reductions into mid-2025 could prop up equity valuations further, he said. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan analysts also warned that rates alone were less important for stocks, given the uncertain outlook for the economy.

The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is expected to keep rates on hold after roiling global financial markets with an increase at its last meeting. “The communication from the BOJ will be critical to let market participants know exactly, as clear as they can be, what the next move and the particular timings of the next moves will be,” Katrina Ell, director of economic research Moody’s Analytics, told Bloomberg Television.  

European stocks are little changed as mining shares provide a drag after data showed China’s economy lost momentum in August. Among single stocks Rexel and Ipsen are the biggest gainers, while the biggest Polish insurer PZU plunged as heavy flooding hit the country’s southwest region. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Rexel shares surge as much as 14%, their steepest gain in four years, after the French electrical equipment group said it rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from QXO Inc. because it “significantly” undervalued the company
• Ipsen advances as much as 5.8% following an upgrade to outperform from sector perform at RBC, based on a higher peak sales estimate for the French drugmaker’s Iqirvo for primary biliary cholangitis
• Saipem shares jump as much as 6.1%, the most intraday since March, after the Italian drilling company won an offshore contract with QatarEnergy LNG worth about $4 billion
• Icade gains as much as 6.9% to the highest in more than three months, after Citi double-upgraded to buy and set a Street-high target, saying the commercial property investor’s dividend yield of about 20% is “hard to ignore”
• Crayon jumps as much as 18%, the most since August 2020, after Bloomberg reported Swiss technology firm SoftwareOne is exploring a potential combination of the two firms as it considers strategic options
• Intermonte Partners SIM jumped as much as 20% in Milan after asset manager Banca Generali made a takeover bid on Monday at €3.04 per share, with the aim of delisting it
• TI Fluid Systems shares rise as much as 17% after the auto supplier rejected a second takeover proposal from ABC Technologies, arguing the bid “significantly undervalued” the business. Analysts at Jefferies agree the valuation is too low
• TT Electronics shares plunge as much as 37%, the most on record, after the electronics company warned revenue will be lower than previously expected in the second half because of “weak” trading at two of its North American sites, which will also hurt profitability
• PZU insurer drops 13% as heavy flooding hits southwest Poland

Earlier, Asian equities climbed for a third day, bolstered by expectations of a rate cut by the US Fed this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5%, with Hong Kong-listed tech stocks, including Tencent and Meituan, along with Australian lenders featuring among top gainers. Japan, Korea and China markets were closed for a holiday. In China, data published over the weekend showed industrial output recording its longest slowing streak since 2021, while consumption and investment were weaker than expected. That has bolstered expectations of more stimulus from the PBOC before year-end, adding to tailwinds from an expected Fed rate cut that might bring in larger emerging market flows.

“Support from fiscal policy, which has lagged throughout 2024, could step up,” Wei He, an analyst with Gavekal Research wrote in a note. “The government will probably introduce some additional stimulus measures in coming months.” Still, those measures are unlikely to convince market participants that nominal growth prospects are improving, she said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.4% to the lowest since January as traders added bets on a 50bps interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week while expectations of a narrowing rate differential between the US and Japan boosted the yen. The Japanese yen and Norwegian krone are the best performers among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.7% each.

In rates, Treasuries extended their gains, with the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year note falling to the lowest since September 2022 and outperformed as markets see higher odds that Wednesday’s Fed decision will be a half-point rather than a quarter-point rate cut. Front-end yields are richer by more than 2bp, longer maturities by 1bp-2bp; the 10-year yield is around 3.64% outperforming bunds and gilts slightly; 2s10s spread is ~1bp steeper on the day at ~8bp. Swap contracts price in around 37bp of easing for the September meeting and around 75bp by November, anticipating that one of the next two moves will be a a half-point cut. Corporate new-issue volume stands to be heavy Monday as borrowers aim to complete offerings ahead of the Fed decision. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals so far; around $25b of supply is expected this week, concentrated on Monday and Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. This week’s Treasury coupon supply includes $13b 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $17b 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.8% to near $69.20 after its first weekly gain in a month as a drop in Libyan exports was offset by China’s economic woes. Meanwhile hedge fund traders are net short the oil complex for the first time on record. Spot gold rises $9 to around $2,586/oz. Bitcoin falls over 1%. gold rose to a fresh record high as markets waited for the Fed easing.

Looking at today’s light calendar, the data includes only September Empire manufacturing at 8:30am; this week we get retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and existing home sales. Fed speakers are in self-imposed quiet period until the Sept. 18 policy decision

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,633.50
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 515.95
• MXAP up 0.5% to 183.99
• MXAPJ up 0.5% to 571.56
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 36,581.76
• Topix down 0.8% to 2,571.14
• Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 17,422.12
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,704.09
• Sensex up 0.2% to 83,022.63
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,121.60
• Kospi up 0.1% to 2,575.41
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.14%
• Euro up 0.4% to $1.1120
• Brent Futures up 0.7% to $72.12/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,587.72
• US Dollar Index down 0.43% to 100.68

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump survived a second assassination attempt on his golf course in West Palm Beach and the Secret Service opened fire at a suspected person with a weapon while Trump was golfing, according to law enforcement sources cited by AP. Trump’s campaign said the former President is safe following a shooting in his vicinity, while Trump said he will never give up and nothing will stop him. Furthermore, the FBI said it is investigating what appears to be an assassination attempt and a Palm Beach law enforcement official said the suspect was arrested and that they found an AK-47 type weapon.
• China economic data continues to fall short of expectations, with retail sales coming in +2.1% (down from +2.7% in Jul and below the Street’s +2.5% forecast) and industrial production at +4.5% (down from +5.1% in Jul and below the Street’s +4.7% forecast) while home price deflation worsens and time runs out for the gov’t to achieve its full-year targets. SCMP
• Major American retailers including Amazon and Walmart have been quietly exploring shifting toward a business model that would ship more goods directly to consumers from Chinese factories and require fewer U.S. workers in retail stores and logistics centers. NYT
• The US and UK are increasingly concerned Russia is giving Iran information and technology that may help it to build nuclear weapons, Western officials familiar said. Iran said it’s ready to enter talks under the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump scrapped as president. BBG
• Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has opened the door to accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts, signaling policymakers could switch to jumbo 50 basis point moves should growth disappoint. FT
• The Fed should cut by 50bp this week according to Greg Ip in the WSJ given cooling inflation (which is causing monetary policy to passively tighten) and rising employment risks. Ip said the Fed’s rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be and the real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be, while it added that the answer is much lower which argues for a half-point cut: WSJ
• DirecTV and Dish are in talks to merge, a combination that would create the largest pay-TV operator in the country (the firms hope regulators will be more amenable to a transaction this time around given shifting industry dynamics). BBG
• OpenAI could close a fundraising round at a valuation of $150B within weeks (demand has been strong), although the specific mechanism will be a convert, and the valuation could adjust lower if the firm is unsuccessful in altering its corporate structure to remove a cap on profits. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions with many key markets in the region closed and as participants braced for this week’s central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ. ASX 200 mildly gained as real estate and financials led the advances across most sectors aside from defensives. Hang Seng was dragged lower amid the absence of mainland participants and with underperformance seen in property developers after Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.

Top Asian news

• China is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly opposes the US locking in tariff hikes on Chinese imports. Furthermore, China urges the US to immediately correct its ‘wrongdoings’ and lift all tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard the interests of Chinese firms, according to MOFCOM.
• China Stats Bureau spokesperson said China will step up macro policy adjustments, while they expect a mild rebound in the consumer price index and for quickening bond issuance and policy initiatives to support China’s investment growth.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) began the session almost entirely in the red, albeit modestly so. As the morning progressed, sentiment gradually improved and now displays more of a mixed picture. European sectors hold a negative bias; Retail takes the top spot alongside Consumer Products whilst Basic Resources lags, largely a factor of the poor Chinese data over the weekend. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY +0.1%) are indicative of a flat/slightly firmer open, ahead of the FOMC Policy Announcement on Wednesday. Intel (+3.5%) gains after the Co. reached a deal to make chips for the US military; a deal worth as much as USD 3.5bln.

Top European news

• ECB’s de Guindos says ECB projections show that inflation by 2025-end will hover around 2% target. Inflation in services is still resisting, this remains the ECB’s main concern. ECB expects a significant slowdown in growth of labour costs next year. ECB wants to keep all options open when it comes to interest rate decisions. The ECB’s balance sheet is expected to decrease by around EUR 40bln per month.
• ECB’s Kazimir says the ECB will almost surely have to wait until December for the next rate cut; it would take a significant shift in outlook for ECB to cut in October; very little new info in the pipeline before October meeting. There is no rush to cut rates, safest to wait for the outlook to become clearer.
• UK Chancellor Reeves was advised by a group of leading economists that cutting public investment in the UK would damage the foundations of the economy, according to FT.

FX

• DXY has extended the slump seen since last Thursday with the dovish Fed repricing the main catalyst. Markets now assign a circa 59% chance of a 50bps reduction this week compared to 15% post-CPI last week. The next target for DXY comes via the YTD trough at 100.51.
• EUR/USD is back above 1.11 thanks to the softer USD. EUR/USD is now eyeing the post-payrolls peak from September 6th at 1.1155 with the YTD high at 1.1201.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD but flat against the EUR heading into the BoE on Thursday. Expectations are for an unchanged rate with a 7-2 vote split (dovish dissent expected from Dhingra and most likely Ramsden). Attention for Cable is on a test of 1.32; not breached since 6th September.
• JPY is the best performer across the majors as further dovish Fed repricing stands in contrast to a hawkish BoJ. USD/JPY has slipped below 140 for the first time since July 2023.
• Both antipodes are firmer vs. the USD and able to overlook the soft Chinese trade data overnight. AUD/USD has been able to undo much of the downside seen late last week with the current session high of 0.6736.
• CAD is a touch firmer vs. the USD but less so than peers following an interview in the FT with BoC Governor Macklem who signalled that the Bank could increase the size of rate cuts from 25bps to 50bps on account of softening labour market data and weakening crude prices.
• CNH is marginally firmer vs. the USD as the broadly softer dollar overshadows the negative follow-through from further soft Chinese metrics over the weekend.
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem opened the door to increasing the pace of rate cuts as growth fears mount, according to FT.

Fixed Income

• USTs are relatively contained as markets count down to this week’s FOMC policy announcement, as it stands market pricing has the odds of a 50bps cut at around 60% and a 25bps move at 40%. Despite the shift in pricing, USTs themselves are essentially unchanged at 115-15 in a thin five tick range.
• Bunds are incrementally firmer and towards the midpoint of 134.71-97 parameters. Holding within Friday’s 134.62-135.19 range. The main focus point for the bloc is a speech from ECB’s Lane at 13:00BST / 08:00 EDT, a text is expected.
• Gilts are also slightly higher and holding around 20 ticks above the 101.00 mark and just off a 101.30 session peak. For the UK, the week’s focus point is the BoE on Thursday (exp. to hold, 7-2 split possible).

Commodities

• Crude is modestly firmer intraday amid the softer Dollar but despite the downbeat Chinese data over the weekend which reinforced the theme of an ailing Chinese economy following the Chinese inflation and trade balance figures in the week prior. Brent November trades within 71.52-72.39/bbl.
• Precious metals are firmer across the board amid the softer Dollar and with added optimism for precious metals as spot gold continues printing fresh all-time highs, with today’s parameter between USD 2,577.59-2,589.72/oz.
• Mixed trade across base metals with copper on a softer footing following the sub-par Chinese data. 3M LME copper resides in the middle of a 9,219.50-9,291.50/t range.
• UBS cuts Q4 2024 Brent price forecast to USD 75/bbl from USD 83/bbl; Cuts 2024 Brent forecast by USD 4/bbl to USD 80/bbl
• Almost a fifth of US Gulf of Mexico crude oil production remained offline and nearly 28% of natural gas production was shut-in in the aftermath of Francine on Sunday, according to the US offshore energy regulator cited by Reuters.
• BP (BP/ LN) is restarting operations at its Castrol lubricants facility in Port Allen, Louisiana after determining conditions are safe to return and Shell (SHEL LN) is ramping up production at Perdido following the resolution of downstream issues, according to Reuters.
• Chevron (CVX) said its US Gulf of Mexico Jack/St Malo and Big Foot platforms are producing at reduced rates due to onshore gas plant disruption, while it continues to return workers and restore oil production at the US Gulf of Mexico Anchor and Tahiti platforms shut-in by Francine with initial assessments showed that neither the Anchor nor Tahiti platforms suffered significant damage, according to Reuters.
• ANZ expects gold to reach USD 2,900/oz by end of 2025 (current spot price USD 2,587.50/oz).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Sirens sounded in Avivim in the Upper Galilee to warn of rocket launches, according to Al Jazeera.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for a missile attack on central Israel and stated that a Yemeni missile reached Israel after 20 missiles failed to intercept it. There were separate reports that Israel’s military announced sirens were set off by a missile which crossed into the country from the east and fell in an open area but caused no casualties.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Yemen’s Houthis should know that they will exact a heavy price for every attempt to harm Israel and noted that a missile fired from Yemen most likely fragmented in mid-air, while he also said the current situation in northern Israel will not continue.
• Houthis said they downed a US drone over Dhamar

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia’s Medvedev said Russia already has formal grounds to use nuclear weapons but has so far chosen not to do so, while their patience has its limits and their response might come in non-nuclear form.
• Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister said Moscow is aware that the West decided on whether to allow Ukraine to strike deep within Russia and that Moscow should use other means since verbal warnings to the West against escalation are not working, according to TASS.
• G7 Foreign Ministers condemned in the strongest terms Iran’s export and Russia’s procurement of Iranian ballistic missiles, while they called for Iran to immediately cease all support to Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine and halt such transfers of ballistic missiles, according to Reuters.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine brought home 103 POWs from Russia in a second swap in two days and noted the incursion into Kursk helped bring about a prisoner exchange with Russia.
• Ukrainian spy chief Budanov said North Korea’s artillery supplies to Russia are a major problem and have a visible battlefield impact. Budanov said that Russia has ramped up production of Iskander ballistic missiles and guided bombs, as well as commented that Russia expects to face recruitment problems in the summer of 2025.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said long-range weapons permission is the subject of intense consultations among allies and that fighting around Ukraine’s Pokrovsk is of unique concern, while the US is preparing to present a substantial Ukraine aid package this month.
• US military member was detained in Venezuela and it was also reported that two additional US citizens were detained, according to a State Department spokesperson cited by Reuters.
• Russian and Chinese warships practiced missile and artillery firing in the Sea of Japan as part of Ocean-2024 drills, according to RIA.
• China’s military said the transit of two German warships in the Taiwan Strait increased security risks and sent a wrong signal. China’s military also stated that Chinese troops are always on high alert and ready to counter all threats and provocations.
• China’s Coast Guard said Philippine vessel 9701 withdrew from the Sabina Shoal on September 14th which ‘illegally’ stayed there for nearly five months, while it added that China took measures against the Philippine vessel in accordance with the law and the Philippines’ repeated attempts to organise supple replenishment to the vessel had all failed. However, the Philippines said it would send another vessel to immediately takeover from the vessel in the disputed Spratlys.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Sept. Empire Manufacturing, est. -4.0, prior -4.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This time last week we suggested that if we were going to get 50bps from the Fed on Wednesday we probably needed a media leak as we approached or entered this past weekend. Thursday’s WSJ and FT articles certainly weren’t smoking guns towards 50bps but they suggested the prospect was higher than where it was after Wednesday’s slightly firmer CPI report. It’s hard to know how informed the WSJ article was but as you will remember, the same author (Nick Timiraos) wrote a much firmer endorsement of a surprise 75bps hike just before the June 2022 FOMC which completely moved the needle at the time. There was little doubt that this was well informed. As you’ll see from my CoTD on Friday, our economists and strategists put both WSJ articles (2022 vs 2024) from this same author into our proprietary AI tool (it’s not called ChatDBT but I’ll refer to it that way) and it told us that “the June 2022 article conveys a strong sense of urgency and conviction regarding the need for a significant rate hike to combat inflation. The September 2024 article, while discussing the possibility of a rate cut, presents a more balanced and less decisive outlook, reflecting the Fed’s cautious approach in navigating economic uncertainty”. So it confirmed our prior about the fresh WSJ article that although this could be a signal that things were closer than we thought, there is no slam dunk here. We feel this is a good use case for AI as we all have our biases and its nice to see what the unbiased linguistic analysis suggests. I’ll be typing everything my wife tells me into this now to ensure I get the true meaning not what my biases interpreted.

Back to the Fed, in the absence of any weekend articles that could have been sourced to the Fed, it really leaves the decision on Wednesday on a knife-edge, something that hasn’t often been the case by the time we ultimately arrived at each FOMC in recent years. Normally its been fairly obvious that close to the meeting or the Fed have found a way of guiding the market to the eventual outcome. At the moment DB is expecting 25bps but with market pricing where it is (41bps priced in and up 3-4bps overnight), and if no Fed leaks push us back towards 25bps over the course of the next 12-24 hours, our economists could easily move to a 50bps today as they don’t think the Fed will want to surprise the market too much on the day. We will see. As important as the 25 vs 50 debate will be the communication from the Fed. Would a 50bps be the start of 50s or a one off larger move to start the cycle? Would a 25bps mean the bar for subsequent 50s is high? There will be lots to digest.

It will be difficult to deviate the messaging too far away from the latest updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plots though. So in many ways that constrains the messaging unless we see large changes. Our economists think the Fed’s growth forecasts are likely to be little changed but the median core PCE inflation forecast could fall by a tenth or two. They believe the unemployment rate forecast will move higher this year – likely into the 4.3-4.4% range – but be mostly unchanged in subsequent years. If the Fed cuts by 25bps on Wednesday, they would expect a median of 75bps of cuts this year and if they cut by 50bps, they would expect the SEP to reflect 100bps of cuts through year-end.

Outside of the Fed the main highlights are tomorrow’s US retail sales and industrial production, Wednesday’s US housing starts and permits and UK inflation, Thursday’s Bank of England decision (DB expect unchanged, see preview here), US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, and Friday sees the BoJ meeting (DB preview here, view is for unchanged), China decide on 1 and 5-yr prime rates, Japan’s CPI, and German PPI.

Over the weekend, China’s latest monthly data dump was weaker than expected across the board. Industrial Production (4.5% vs. 4.7% expected), Retail Sales (2.1% vs. 2.5% expected), the Jobless rate (5.3% vs. 5.2% expected) and Fixed Asset Investment (3.4% vs. 3.5% expected) were all soft alongside slightly lower than expected new and used home prices. Our economists have downgraded their GDP forecasts and believe YoY growth likely slipped to 3.7% in August from 4.6% in July.
We can’t see the immediate market response as mainland Chinese markets (and South Korean) are closed until Wednesday with markets in Japan also closed today for a holiday. The Hang Seng opened -0.76% lower but has rallied back to -0.29% as I type. US equity futures are fairly flat and Treasuries aren’t trading due to the Japanese holiday.

Another big story to break last night was what the FBI are calling a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at his Florida golf course. This may steer the campaign in a different direction again over the next few days.

Recapping last week now, markets put in a very strong performance, with risk assets recovering the bulk of their losses from the previous week. Initially, that was driven by growing optimism about the economic outlook, with fears diminishing about a potential downturn in the US. Then by the end of the week, markets got a further boost as the prospect of a 50bp Fed rate cut this month came back into view, which provided a fresh uplift for equities and bonds. In many respects, it was the best of both worlds from a near-term market perspective, as the perceived likelihood of a 50bp rate cut went up, but unlike in early August, it wasn’t because of negative data surprises.

For equities, this was a very good combination, and the S&P 500 advanced every day last week to gain +4.02% (+0.54% Friday), leaving the index less than 1% beneath its all-time high from mid-July. Tech stocks helped to drive the gains, and the NASDAQ advanced +5.95% (+0.65% Friday). For both indices, this was their best weekly performance of 2024 so far. There were more modest equity gains around the world, with Europe’s STOXX 600 up +1.85% (+0.76% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei up +0.52% (-0.68% Friday). However, Chinese equities underperformed, and the CSI 300 fell -2.23% last week (-0.42% Friday) to close at its lowest level since January 2019.

The growing prospect of a 50bp rate cut, which was 49% priced by the end of the week, was also very good for sovereign bonds. For instance, the 2yr Treasury yield was down another -6.5bps last week (-5.8bps Friday) to 3.58%, whilst the 10yr yield was down -5.7bps (-2.2bps Friday) to 3.65%, its lowest weekly close since May 2023. Illustrating a more dovish market perception of the Fed’s reaction function, the decline was even more noticeable for real yields, and the US 10yr real yield fell -10.3bps last week (-4.0bps Friday) to 1.57%. Meanwhile in Europe, sovereign bond yields fell slightly last week, with the 10yr bund yield down -2.3bps (-0.2bps Friday) to 2.15%.

Finally, it was an eventful week for oil prices, with Brent crude closing beneath $70/bbl on Tuesday for the first time since December 2021. But over the week as a whole, it was actually up by +0.77% (-0.50% Friday) to close at $71.61/bbl. Those gains were echoed across other commodities, and gold prices closed at an all-time high in nominal terms of $2,578/oz, having risen by +3.21% over the week (+1.06% Friday).

The Malaysian High Court was informed last week that a staggering $2.4 million in stolen funds was diverted from the scandal-plagued 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) sovereign wealth fund, into the accounts of celebrity Kim Kardashian and musician Pharrell Williams, who is also men’s creative director at Louis Vuitton, through fugitive businessman Jho Low’s shell company, Good Star Ltd.

According to The Star, Richard Templeman, a financial fraud investigator, made the revelation as part of his testimony in the US$6.59 billion lawsuit brought by 1MDB against former Treasury Secretary-General Tan Sri Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah and former 1MDB CEO Arul Kanda Kandasamy.

Templeman told the High Court that the investigation found, by October 25, 2011, 1MDB had transferred US$1.03 billion to Good Star for the benefit of Low.

“These funds were transferred through a series of offshore companies and used for, inter alia, the personal benefit of the co-conspirators and their relatives and associates”, he detailed in his witness statement,

Templeman explained that from the billions flowing through Good Star, $2,025,000 was moved to a Suntrust Bank account under the name of Talamasca Inc. Transactions between August 11 and November 17, 2011, were noted as “part payment for music production” and “Letter of Agreement DD 3 NOV 2011 Red Spring Investments And Talamasca/Pharrell Williams.”

“I note that publicly available information links Talamasca Inc. with musician Pharrell Williams,” Templeman was quoted as saying. However, he added, “I have no further information regarding this transfer of funds.”

The Star also reported Templeman as revealing that further sums were paid from Good Star to various entities, including US$306,000 to reality TV star Kim Kardashian and another US$100,000 to Kardashian and her then-husband Kris Humphries.

The purpose of these transactions remains “currently unknown,” according to Templeman.

Templeman, who is a director of investigations at Kroll Advisory, oversees the ongoing probe into misappropriated funds from 1MDB and SRC International Sdn Bhd, which were channelled through liquidated companies.

In May 2021, 1MDB initiated a lawsuit against Mohd Irwan and Arul Kanda for breach of trust and conspiracy, leading to a reported $1.83 billion in losses related to an investment in 1MDB-Petrosaudi Ltd, later converted into the Brazen Sky Limited investment, which 1MDB claims is recoverable from the Bridge Global Fund.

The lawsuit also alleges that the defendants misappropriated $3.5 billion in funds paid to Aabar Investments and US$1.265 billion paid to International Petroleum Investment Company on May 9, 2017.

Furthermore, 1MDB accuses Mohd Irwan of colluding with Arul Kanda to extend an employment agreement, resulting in a RM2,905,200 payment to Arul Kanda and additional losses to the company.

As a result, 1MDB is seeking $6.59 billion in damages from both defendants and an additional RM2.9 million from Mohd Irwan related to the employment agreement extension.

The hearing will resume this afternoon before Judicial Commissioner Raja Ahmad Mohzanuddin Shah Raja Mohzan.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

London’s High Court on Friday quashed a planning permission for the UK’s first new coal mine in three decades, ruling that the permit was unlawful as it hadn’t considered the emissions from burning the fuel. 

Earlier this year, climate campaigners, including Friends of the Earth, challenged the approval of the coal mining project.

The UK’s previous Conservative government approved in December 2022 the Woodhouse Colliery project in Whitehaven, northwest England, developed by West Cumbria Mining.  

The project to mine metallurgical coal, the one used for steelmaking, will be required to support steelmaking throughout the transition to Net Zero over the next few decades, WCM said at the end of 2023.

However, the new Labour government in the UK pulled in July its support for the project and said that it would no longer defend the case at High Court.

The UK’s new Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Angela Rayner, has accepted there was an “error of law” in the approval from December 2022. 

The government’s move to drop its defense of the project follows a landmark Supreme Court judgment from June 2024, which ruled that a local council unlawfully granted approval to an onshore oil drilling project as planners must have considered the emissions from the oil’s future use as fuels, in a landmark case that could upset new UK fossil fuel projects.

Today the High Court agreed with the legal challenges that the lifetime emissions of the proposed Whitehaven mine, mostly from burning coal, were not properly considered and the approval was unlawful. 

“We have to leave fossil fuels in the ground and build the cleaner, brighter future that will slash emissions, cut bills and create the well-paid jobs of tomorrow that areas like West Cumbria so urgently need,” said Niall Toru, senior lawyer at Friends of the Earth.  

Six years ago, when we first described Goldman’s catastrophic foray into consumer banking, we joked that the Goldman of 2008 would be shorting the Goldman of 2018 for that ridiculous idea.

Here’s Why The Goldman Of 2008 Would Be Shorting The Goldman Of 2018 https://t.co/SdcJs3i4zO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 3, 2018

Fast forward to today when the joke is indeed on Goldman, and the bank’s losses on its now defunct subprime, pardon, consumer lending unit have hit the stratosphere: according to the WSJ, Goldman is still looking to exit its partnership with Apple as losses continue to mount, and the bank is set to take a $400 million hit this quarter due to its floundering consumer business.

Speaking at a conference this week, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon explained that this $400 million hit comes from two primary things: selling off its General Motors credit card partnership and selling real estate loans. According to the report, the GM card business will be sold to Barclays, with around $2 billion in card balances.

In total, Goldman Sachs has lost a staggering $6 billion pre-tax since the beginning of 2020 “on a big chunk of its consumer-lending businesses, including its credit cards”, a sad confirmation of our 2018 warning. Several factors contribute to Goldman’s massive losses associated with Apple Card, including lax underwriting standards and the resulting charge-off rates that are nearly double those of other credit cards.

In fact the latest Fed stress test revealed that Goldman – the former master of the universe – now has the second crappiest, subprimiest credit card portfolio of all US banks; only Ally bank, whose stock got absolutely crushed last week, is worse.

In the years ahead of the covid crisis, Goldman had planned to its Apple Card to bolster the bank’s efforts and expand into consumer banking. However, in the intervening years, the bank – which had exactly zero previous experience with consumer lending – bank began pivoting away from consumer-financing in 2022 after accumulating staggering losses, focusing its attention on its core strength: catering to big business and ultrarich clients.

Looking toward the future, Goldman Sachs is still looking to exit its partnership with Apple, which consists of the Apple Card and Apple Card Savings Account. Currently, Apple Card credit card balances total $17 billion. The Wall Street Journal says that Goldman Sachs could face even bigger losses when it offloads the Apple partnership than the losses associated with the GM sale to Barclays.

Last November, the WSJ reported that Apple had “sent a proposal to Goldman to exit from the contract in the next roughly 12-to-15 months.” The current fate of that proposal remains unclear. It’s previously been reported that Goldman has talked to American Express and Synchrony Financial about taking over the Apple Card business.

By Denis Albert of Rmx.news,

The German government is under enormous pressure as it sinks in the polls due to mass immigration, but much of the government is staffed by radicals, many who support open borders. It has now been confirmed that taxpayers financed an anti-deportation guidebook called “Handbook Germany,” with the funds flowing from the budget of the Federal Government Commissioner for Integration, Reem Alabali-Radovan (SPD).

The information was disclosed after a request from MP Joana Cotar, who is currently unaffiliated but belonged to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) until November 2022.

🇩🇪‼️ Germany’s far-left government sinks to RECORD low in polling.

At the same time, the AfD is jumped in the polls to 19.5% just before key elections in Brandenburg.

The ruling government (Greens, SPD, FDP) is in serious trouble, mainly due to the migration crisis. pic.twitter.com/GB8sXG7F7Y

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 12, 2024

The “Handbook Germany” is a website aimed at migrants in Germany, which explains how to avoid deportation. The various tips can help extend asylum seekers’ stay in the country, potentially for years, even if the individual has criminal convictions.

One of the first tips is filing a complaint against the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).

“You cannot be deported while your complaint is pending,” the guide notes.

The site also notes that in the case of asylum applications that have been classified as inadmissible under the Dublin Regulation, the six-month transfer period begins again as soon as the asylum seeker submits an urgent application. The Solingen Islamist who killed three people during the “Festival of Diversity” actually used this legal loophole to stay in the country.

🇩🇪 Germans say they’re “shocked” about the mass stabbing by a Syrian national at the “Festival of Diversity” in Solingen.

But there is nothing to be shocked about. Knife crime in Germany is soaring, predominately due to mass immigration.

That is a statistical fact. pic.twitter.com/NWAxJp2gBe

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 28, 2024

There are also other topics on integration on the site, including a link to the page “Stop deportations. Right to stay for all.” This is a radical left-wing group in Frankfurt that opposes deportations “for political reasons.” This page even contains information about how an asylum seeker can avoid deportation once he or she is even on the plane.

The guide suggests the rejected asylum seeker should “not sit down on the plane and make it clear that they are not flying voluntarily.” Additionally, “supporters” of the rejected asylum seeker should inform “other passengers” on the plane and “urge them to protest.”

Handbook Germany also contains details about how asylum seekers can react after they have already been deported, including follow-up applications. In such a case, the handbook advises the applicant find “new” reasons for an application, including “severe war trauma” that “has not yet been recognized.” In such a case, the application may be approved.

Overall, 90 percent of the project is funded by the EU’s Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF). Co-financiers include Integration Commissioner Alabali-Radovan, the anti-racism commissioner, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, and the International Rescue Committee.

According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), youth unemployment hit its lowest level in the past 15 years in 2023, at 13%, marking a strong recovery from the high rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, these unemployment figures vary significantly by geographical region.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes youth unemployment rates by global region in 2023. Youth are defined as individuals between the ages of 15 to 24.

The data comes from the International Labour Organization’s 2024 Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024 report.

Which Region has the Highest Youth Unemployment?

Below, we show youth unemployment rates by region in 2023.

The Arab States, consisting of countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Yemen, and others, recorded the highest (28.6%) youth unemployment rate globally, with Northern Africa, consisting of countries like Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco, following closely behind at 22.5%.

According to the Brookings Institution, youth unemployment rates in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region have been the highest in the world for over 25 years.

In 2019, just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, 30% of youth in the MENA region were NEET–not in education, employment, or training, according to the ILO.

Experts say the combination of low infant mortality rates and high fertility rates, which translated into high labor force growth rates from 1970 onwards could be a leading cause of the high youth unemployment rates in the region.

In contrast, the Northern America region saw the lowest youth unemployment rate in 2023, at only 8.3%. The U.S. saw a significant decrease in the youth unemployment rate last year, with young workers seeing the lowest unemployment rate in 70 years at 7.5% in March of 2023.

However, in the first half of 2024, both the U.S. and Canada both have seen increases in youth unemployment rates.

To learn more about youth employment, check out this graphic that show employment rates for U.S. college and high school students since 1993.