Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The giant ball of fire that our planet revolves around has been far more active than scientists originally anticipated this year, and that could have very serious implications for all of us in the months ahead.  Fluctuations in solar activity affect our climate more than anything else does, and we also tend to see more earthquakes when solar activity is at elevated levels.  The current solar cycle is supposed to reach a peak at some point during the next 12 months, but so far there are no signs that solar activity is slowing down. 

In fact, the average number of sunspots that we witnessed last month was the highest that we have seen since 2001…

The average number of sunspots reached 215.5 in August, according to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center at the Royal Observatory in Belgium. It’s the highest number since Sept.-Dec. 2001, according to SpaceWeather.com. July’s total was 196.5. Last month, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued a preliminary statement that solar activity is at its highest since March 2001.

This wasn’t supposed to happen.

Scientists were originally projecting that we would see about half as many sunspots during the month of August…

Experts had predicted that August would only see half as many sunspots, indicating that the solar maximum is imminent, and it may be more active than anticipated, possibly bringing intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

The number of sunspots has been increasing at an exponential rate for the past couple of months.

Hopefully we will get a reprieve here in September.

Because if we don’t, we could see more severe geomagnetic storms like we did in May…

In May 2024, Earth experienced its strongest geomagnetic storm in over 20 years, with auroras visible much farther south than usual, including regions as far as Florida and Mexico. If another large sunspot appears around the time of the September equinox, it could lead to a similar or even stronger event.

When a very large geomagnetic storm occurs, it can disrupt our lives in countless ways.

Back in May, even farm equipment was dramatically affected…

Ronald Rabon, the owner of Double R Farms, said back in May when the G-5 extreme solar magnetic levels occurred, he was out spraying his cotton field when his equipment started acting up.

“I didn’t know what was wrong with it,” Rabon said. “All I knew, it was, and you could get it straightened up and go for a few minutes. And it might go 20, 30 minutes and whatever minutes from then, all of a sudden, you’d be going through the field and it might just take a left.”

Rabon said one of the biggest problems with the solar flares is preventing his sprayers from being accurate. His GPS uses precise alignments for spraying, and when knocked out of its track, could overspray his crop and kill it.

Of course if our planet is hit by a large enough storm, it could fry power grids, take down the Internet, and cause massive societal problems all over the world.

Hopefully such a scenario will not play out any time soon.

All of the solar activity that we have been witnessing is also the primary reason why there has been so much intense heat this summer…

Summer broke global heat records for the second straight year, scientists have confirmed — putting 2024 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history.

The period between June and August — summer in the Northern Hemisphere — was the world’s hottest such period since records began in 1940, according to data published Friday by Copernicus, Europe’s climate change service.

Much more importantly, there tends to be a lot of seismic activity when solar activity is very high, and that is precisely what has been occurring.

In particular, a lot of experts are quite alarmed about all of the shaking that we have seen in California lately…

Residents in California experienced a swarm of five earthquakes within the last 48 hours.

A 4.4-magnitude was felt in the north around Lake County on Saturday and two more struck the area the following evening, ranked as a 2.7 and 2.8-magnitude.

Locals in southern California also reported two more quakes on Saturday, with the largest ranking a 3.9-magnitude.

Within the past 7 days, there have been more than 900 earthquakes in California and Nevada.

As I discussed the other day, I am extremely concerned about the instability that we have been witnessing on the west coast.

This is something that I will be watching very, very closely during the months to come.  In my brand new book, I explain why I believe that we have entered a time when we will see historic earthquakes of absolutely epic proportions.

Of course it isn’t just the U.S. that will be affected.

There has also been a lot of shaking south of the border lately too.

On September 6th, a gigantic crack in the Earth that suddenly opened up actually swallowed four cows…

A large earth crack opened in Ejido J. Cruz Gálvez, located in the Hermosillo municipality of Sonora, Mexico, on September 6, 2024, swallowing four cows.

The crack is reported to be approximately 3 km (1.8 miles) long and 1.5 m (5 feet) wide, with a depth of 4 m (13 feet) in some sections.

According to the rancher who recorded a video of the crack, it swallowed four cows. Local authorities have not yet issued any statements regarding the matter.

It is not normal for a crack in the Earth that is 3 kilometers long to appear out of nowhere.

When will people finally start to wake up?

Our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, and this should deeply alarm all of us.

Meanwhile, the skies above our heads are becoming increasingly active as well.

For example, a giant space rock that is “approximately the size of two football fields” will come flying by our planet on September 15th…

An asteroid approximately the size of two football fields is set to make a close approach to Earth this month. According to the New York Post, the 720-foot-wide asteroid named 2024 ON, will pass around 620,000 miles from our planet on September 15. While this distance might seem vast, it’s remarkably close in astronomical terms – equivalent to just 2.6 times the distance between our planet and the Moon. However, it poses no threat to Earth.

The good news is that this particular giant space rock is definitely going to miss us.

In the future, we may not be so fortunate.

So much is happening in the skies above our heads, but most of the population is not paying attention.

Unfortunately, it is just a matter of time before major events start to happen that none of us will be able to ignore.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

In a move that’s undoubtedly going to be used to justify more censorship, 42 state and U.S. territory attorneys general are urging Congress to mandate Surgeon General warnings on algorithm-driven social media platforms, aiming to combat the growing mental health crisis among America’s youth. The group, representing 39 states, the District of Columbia, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, sent a letter on September 9 to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY.), calling for swift federal action to address the harmful impact of social media on young people.

The push follows U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy’s call in June for such labels, which would serve as a reminder that social media has not been proven safe for youth. Murthy pointed out that warning labels on products like tobacco have successfully raised awareness and changed behavior, suggesting similar potential benefits for social media platforms.

“We, the attorneys general of the 42 undersigned states, write in support of the United States Surgeon General’s recent call,” the letter stated. “Young people are facing a mental health crisis, which is fueled in large part by social media.” (and not vapid millennial parents who have no idea what they’re doing)

The attorneys general cited research linking social media use to increased rates of depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts among adolescents. They pointed to studies showing how these platforms disrupt sleep, foster body dissatisfaction, and promote self-harm, creating a compelling case for greater oversight.

While several states have already taken steps to address the issue—such as Tennessee’s Protecting Children from Social Media Act, which requires parental consent for minors to create social media accounts, and California’s law mandating platforms to assess and mitigate harms to children—the attorneys general argue that state-level efforts are not sufficient. They call for a unified federal approach to establish a consistent standard nationwide.

The letter highlights that 41 states and the District of Columbia have already filed lawsuits against Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, for allegedly encouraging harmful levels of platform engagement among young users. Other states, including Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa, have initiated legal actions against TikTok for violating consumer protection laws. Despite these efforts, the attorneys general emphasize that a broader federal mandate is essential for comprehensive protection.

While acknowledging that a Surgeon General warning label would not solve the problem, the attorneys general believe it would be a critical step in mitigating risks to youth. They argue that the labels would raise public awareness, encourage more research, and spur additional regulatory oversight of social media companies.

The letter also references recent legislative actions like the passage of the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act as evidence of Congress’s willingness to tackle the issue.

The attorneys general who signed the letter represent a diverse array of states, including Alabama, California, Florida, Michigan, New York, Texas, and Virginia, among others. However, some states, such as Iowa and Nebraska, while cited as examples of states that have implemented policies to protect children from the harms of social media, were not signatories on the letter.

The coalition closed their plea by stressing the urgent need for federal action, reinforcing the bipartisan nature of their concern for the mental well-being of America’s youth.

In a move aimed at curbing China’s growing influence on American soil, the House of Representatives passed a bill aimed squarely at slashing Chinese sway in U.S. universities. This legislative punch landed on the second day of “China Week,” a concerted effort by House Republican leadership to tackle China’s expanding footprint across multiple sectors.

On September 9th, the House passed 15 bills, all designed to ensure that the United States keeps its edge in tech and to combat China’s alleged subversive activities. Front and center was a bill introduced by Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX) that bars American schools, which are cozy with Confucius Institutes (CIs)—widely seen as CCP propaganda hubs—or are recipients of Chinese funds, from getting any grants from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The Senate now holds the bill’s fate in its hands as it sits with the relevant committee. But for schools that cozy up to CIs, the writing’s on the wall—you’re either with the U.S. or you’re helping the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) undermine America’s institutions.

“You’re either going to take a step in support of the strength of the United States and push back on the CCP… or you’re going to be on the side of somebody else’s security,” Pfluger thundered on the House floor.

Confucius Institutes Under Fire

The Confucius Institutes are funded by the CCP, which not only picks and pays for the textbooks but also sends over Chinese nationals to teach. A 2018 report from the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission even laid bare the “longstanding and formal ties” between CIs and the CCP’s United Front Work Department—a well-oiled machine for influence operations. And while many Confucius Institutes were forced to shut their doors in 2020 and 2021 after a State Department crackdown, the CCP has simply povited. Some of these so-called institutes just got a facelift, rebranding under different banners but maintaining the same mission.

As the Epoch Times notes further, A 2022 report revealed that although the institutes went through massive closure in the United States in 2020 and 2021 after the State Department designated the Confucius Institute U.S. Center (CIUS) as a Chinese foreign mission, a significant portion of them re-branded under similar programs.

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) spoke against the bill, saying that the language was too broad to ban all types of DHS funding, including disaster relief, for all American colleges that receive money from China.

In a statement issued on Sept. 10, the White House supported the spirit of the bill but questioned the approach.

“The administration appreciates Congress’s efforts to ensure that DHS funding is made available only to partners that advance U.S. interests, homeland security, and democratic norms.

“However, there may be more appropriate ways to prevent DHS funding from being directed toward academic institutions that are vulnerable to the PRC’s increasing monetary influence.”

The bill passed later in the afternoon with a vote of 249–161, with most representatives voting on party lines. Thirty-six Democrats voted for the bill.

The amended version narrowed down the definition of Chinese entities of concern to those that assist the persecution of Uyghur Muslims, work against U.S.–Taiwan relations, or take part in the Thousand Talents Program, a Chinese initiative to attract talent with critical military technology.

Only the recipient of funding from these Chinese entities of concern will disqualify an American higher education institution from receiving DHS funding.

The amended version also requires the Secretary of Homeland Security to report to Congress any colleges among DHS grant recipients that work with a Confucius Institute or Chinese entity of concern.

After the passage of his bill, Pfluger wrote in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times that the CCP is using Confucius Institutes to “infiltrate American university campuses and engage in espionage, steal intellectual property, intimidate Chinese dissidents, promote communist propaganda, and funnel sensitive information back to the People’s Liberation Army.”

“This bill protects students and universities while ensuring that American dollars are not enabling foreign malign influence,” he said.

The bill passed shortly after a prominent American university cut ties with the CCP.

On Sept. 6, Georgia Tech announced that it would not continue its Shenzhen Institute (GTSI) in Shenzhen, China’s southern city bordering Hong Kong. Georgia Tech reached an agreement with Tianjin University, a public research university in China, in 2016 to establish the GTSI.

The university cited its “extensive role in national security” and the fact that the Commerce Department has blacklisted Tianjin University since December 2020 as reasons to pull the plug on the institute in China.

Current students can still graduate through the program.

Several months ago, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House China panel, launched an investigation into Georgia Tech’s Tianjin University partnership.

Moolenaar welcomed Georgia Tech’s decision.

“I appreciate Georgia Tech’s productive engagement with the committee’s investigation and look forward to continuing to work with Georgia Tech as they proceed with the termination.”

The congressman also called for other colleges with similar ties to consider the potential impact.

“It is my hope that other American institutions of higher learning who have similar arrangements with Chinese institutions will pay close attention here and likewise think hard about the impact their pursuits in China are having on America’s long-term national security.”

Authored by Clint Siegner via Money Metals,

One of the best tips anyone can offer when it comes to investing in physical bullion is to choose your dealer well.

The wrong choice can mean a total loss for clients who are caught as an unreputable dealer took their money and disappeared before delivering their metal.

This is, of course, also true for people putting bullion into their self-directed IRA accounts.

But these investors have an additional imperative; they must also choose well when deciding where their IRA metal will be stored.

First State Depository in Delaware recently failed after it was discovered the vault owner had absconded with much of the metal that was supposed to be held for safekeeping.

When it comes to IRAs, the term “self-directed” has an important legal connotation. The account holders will be responsible for the choices they make.

Up until now at least, IRA custodians have generally tried to be hands off and avoid making recommendations as to which dealers or depositories might be best. They have interpreted IRS guidelines to mean they should be neutral and simply serve as a record keeper. After all, these IRAs are “self-directed.”

Oxford Gold Group Scandal Tars IRA Provider

Equity Trust Company, a provider of self-directed IRAs, was named in a class-action lawsuit last month. An unscrupulous metals dealer, Oxford Gold Group, had utilized Equity Trust as the custodian when clients purchased metal for their retirement accounts.

When Oxford collapsed, news reports indicated a great number of orders had been paid for from client IRA funds held at Equity Trust. But the precious metals purchased were never delivered to the IRA holders’ chosen depository.

Oxford Gold Group’s unfortunate victims seek to hold Equity Trust liable too, specifically for not warning them about Oxford’s failures to deliver.

It will be some time before a resolution is reached. Regardless of the lawsuit’s outcome, however, one thing is clear for self-directed investors…

Nobody should rely on a dealer list or depository list provided by the IRA custodian as anything more than a starting point.

The fact that an IRA custodian has listed a particular dealer or depository as “approved” does not mean the dealer or depository has been fully vetted by the custodian. It does not mean the dealer or depository provide fast delivery or great customer service.

These lists just mean some minimal setup has been completed. Conducting additional due diligence makes sense.

One way is to look at customer reviews online.

The reality, though, is that shady precious metals dealers have managed to create seemingly good reputations online using fake or paid reviews. (And bad reviews can also be fake, planted by a company’s unethical competitors.)

In our estimation, the Better Business Bureau (BBB) is the only reasonably credible review site out there. Buyers should watch out for BBB reports of delivery delays – just as they should carefully monitor delivery speed, communication, and service as to their own orders.

Dealer Delivery Delays Are a Red Flag

Rising numbers of complaints about delays receiving delivery of orders have been a reliable indication of trouble ahead for a dealer. It was for Oxford Gold Group and for many others in the past several years.

Trouble delivering on time is a sign that the dealer might be in financial trouble.

It could even be running a Ponzi scheme; i.e., money coming from most recent orders is being used to purchase the inventory needed to fulfill other orders placed weeks earlier.

The depository you select should be able to provide independent audits of the company’s financials and the metal they store. They should also be able to furnish a Cover Note of Insurance or similar document showing that stored metals are fully insured.

Money Metals Exchange has an A+ rating with BBB and lots of happy clients leaving reviews. Meanwhile, Money Metals Depository readily provides disclosures, audits, and insurance information.

Investors who choose Money Metals when buying, selling, or storing their gold and silver can have peace of mind.

Law-abiding Americans are watching in disbelief as Venezuelan prison gangs run amok nationwide. Leaked unclassified US Army documents show illegal alien prison gangs have become a major threat to the Homeland. The FBI recently warned that migrant gangs are attacking critical energy infrastructure in West Texas while entire towns, such as Springfield, Ohio, have been entirely overwhelmed by illegal aliens. The number of rapes and murders by migrants is also on the rise as the Biden-Harris administration has clearly encouraged all of this, which – to some, could appear to be an intentional political strategy to overload the current system.

Democrats spent years defunding the police and pushed disastrous social justice reforms that essentially transformed metro areas into chaotic murder zones. Baltimore, Chicago, Portland, and San Francisco are perfect examples of how failed progressive policies sparked a violent crime tsunami. 

On top of this, radical leftists under the Biden-Harris team, with VP Harris at the helm as ‘Border Czar,’ facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion on the southern and northern borders through open border policies. This move is seen as a death blow, a nation-killing move with ten million unvetted migrants, some of which are terrorists and criminals, running around the nation – often after having been detained and released by the Biden admnistration. Meanwhile, Iranian assassins are allegedly hunting US officials.

Furthermore, the open border has allowed China to flood Mexico with subsidized fentanyl precursor chemicals that are cooked by Mexican drug cartels and packaged up in pills, and sent north across the southern border. This has only exacerbated the drug crisis, killing 100,000 Americans each year, mainly military-aged men and women – a national security threat as war threats in the South China Sea or around Taiwan soar.  

At the same time Democrats pushed for defunding police amid race riots over various incidents, billionaire activist George Soros installed progressive DAs in metro areas that refuse to enforce ‘common sense’ law and order. On top of this, the left relentlessly pushed ESG and DEI on corporate America, while its acolytes have teamed up with advertising cabals to deplatform anyone who has a problem with it. On the latter front, the tide appears to be turning.

Cloward-Piven?

Sometimes Occam’s razor points to the obvious – in this case, the ole’ ‘Cloward-Piven Strategy‘ – a multi-year plan by dark forces to destroy capitalism by overloading the current system with intentions of destroying it (and of course, rebuilding it in their image – may the odds be ever in your favor). From the unfettered illegal alien invasion to soaring national debt to endless wars to installing the woke mind virus in universities and corporate America, all have led to mass dysfunction across the Homeland – and a plummeting birth rate.

The quiet part was said out loud earlier this year… 

An extremist on the mic says: “There’s only one solution, intifada revolution. We must have a revolution so we can have a socialist reconstruction of the USA.”

This isn’t just about Israel/Palestine. It’s an attempt of the Marxist takeover of America. Our colleges have become… pic.twitter.com/2IEqRyuorB

— A Man Of Memes (@RickyDoggin) April 30, 2024

So here’s the Cloward-Piven Strategy… 

1. Overload a system
2. Create mass panic and hysteria as the system is overloaded
3. Oversee the destruction of the system (We Are Here)
4. Replace the former system with a new system

Maybe now it makes sense. 

The Cloward-Piven Strategy | @ConceptualJames with @JoeRogan pic.twitter.com/o43CQnAT8L

— New Discourses (@NewDiscourses) March 28, 2024

The Cloward-Piven strategy of overwhelming the system is in full swing. Chaos driven by communists, socialists, globalists, anarchists, and Islamists working together has already engulfed Europe. God HELP US if the radicals complete their plans for America this November… pic.twitter.com/bs2CEFDbm6

— Glenn Beck (@glennbeck) August 29, 2024

“It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong.”
—Voltaire

The Cloward-Piven strategy aims to overwhelm and destroy from within.

Their goal? Collapse the system and rebuild it in their own image.

Watch this quick video to see how it’s… pic.twitter.com/oeFqlDz5OR

— Voltaire’s Looking Glass 🇺🇸 (@DrakeBehren) September 8, 2024

What is Happening to America? The Cloward-Piven Strategy

LISTEN to Frances Fox Piven herself in this video…
—— “People like what AOC are doing, what the squad is doing, is very important.…> it’s a very important and political moment in American political development, and we… pic.twitter.com/qcGOfZA4KA

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) August 16, 2024

Is Cloward-Piven Strategy about to become a household name like it did under the Obama era? 

And it’s only going to get worse unless the country sees meaningful change… 

🚨 El Paso, Texas

Venezualan Gang Tren de Aragua have Taken over the Gateway Hotel

• the “Gateway Hotel” received a temporary injunction and restraining order from the El Paso County Attorney on Monday for criminal activity and suspicions of “Tren De Aragua” gang members in… pic.twitter.com/wv8NOzijLv

— MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) September 10, 2024

Sigh.

Armed Venezuelan Prison Gang In Denver Highlights Map Of US Sanctuary Zones To Avoid Amid Migrant Crisis https://t.co/EzR9xqGDTp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2024

As you can see, progressives are attempting to usher in a fundamental transformation of America. VP Harris hinted at this with her first proposed communist economic policy of price controls.

Even WaPo called her out…

The radical far-left has taken Cloward-Piven to new extremes. 

Authored by Robert Hargraves via RealClearEnergy,

World Bank policy states: “WBG will not finance nuclear power generation or provide specific technical assistance for its assessment and development because safety of nuclear facilities and non-proliferation are not in the WBG’s areas of expertise, nor will the WBG build internal capacity in matters related to nuclear power generation.” Paraphrase: “We won’t do it and we won’t learn about it.”

You exhibited social leadership in your chairmanship of General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, and business leadership at Mastercard. Can you now lead World Bank directors to finance nuclear power, the only realistic, CO2-free route to changing energy poverty to economic prosperity for billions of people in developing nations?

To help mitigate climate change World Bank has stopped financing new coal-fired power plants. This is morally conflicting because such ample, reliable electricity is essential to prosperity in developing nations. As a half-measure the World Bank continues to finance natural gas power plants, because their CO2 emissions are half as bad.

Electrifying prosperity. Without better jobs poor people can’t afford labor-saving electric luxuries such as washing machines. A prosperous economy requires ample, full-time power to support industry and commerce. North America average power use is 1500 watts per person; European Union: 700 watts; China: 400 watts; India, SE Asia, and Africa: under 100 watts.

For developing nations, 100 watts of full-time average electricity use correlates with $3500 of GDP. A new 1 GW power plant can support $32 billion of GDP growth.

Electricity access for nearly one billion people without power is a noble goal for the World Bank, but installing solar panels for them is not enough. Intermittent solar and wind power can’t drive nations’ commerce and industry. 

Rich nations do what they want. Poor nations do what they must. Today they choose coal-fired power plants because they provide ample, reliable, 24×7 power at affordable costs, even if their CO2 emissions create societal costs. You can help change their choice by endorsing new low-cost nuclear power plants that can generate full-time electricity cheaper than coal-fired or LNG-fired power plants.

Fear. Will the World Bank remain a victim of the flawed ‘common knowledge’ that low levels of radiation cause cancer? Many nuclear power opponents are financed by fund flows they induce from public fear of all radiation. Yet nuclear power plants have the best safety record of power generation technologies.

Science shows that moderate radiation is not harmful, but biased scientists and international agencies such as International Commission on Radiological Protection ignore DNA repair and immune response biology revealed by three 2015 chemistry Nobel Prize winners. 

Many misled people are fearful of nuclear power, urging officials to further increase burdening over-regulation and costs. But no one was hurt by radiation from the Fukushima catastrophe. No one has been harmed by nuclear power in nearly four decades. 

Cost. World Bank reports state “solar PV now cheaper than nuclear in developed economies” but PV solar only seems cheap in nations with obscure, complex tax, subsidy, and backup power systems.

Radiophobia and resulting over-zealous regulation ballooned nuclear costs in rich nations that can also afford to invest trillions of dollars in expensive, intermittent, renewable energy. 

New nuclear power plants can be built for less in factories and shipyards, then set up on site within two years. Technologies such as low pressure liquid fuel simplify design and reduce costs. At least two developers claim ample, full-time energy cheaper than coal.

Willfull ignorance. Nuclear fear and cost evidence is ignored by World Bank refusal even to “build internal capacity in matters related to nuclear power generation.”

Blacklisting nuclear. One hundred voting member countries are interested in nuclear power, but it seems wealthy voting members Germany, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Ireland, and Australia are allowed to blacklist nuclear power.

Emission free prosperity. You can lead World Bank directors to recognize the truly benign health effects of nuclear power plant radiation and to finance low cost, reliable, nuclear power plants for developing nations seeking full-time, CO2-free, electric power.

Dr. Robert Hargraves teaches at Dartmouth’s Osher Lifelong Learning Institute and is a co-founder of nuclear-engineering company Thorcon International and author of New Nuclear is HOT!

Despite Goldman analysts highlighting the latest gloomy high-frequency economic data out of China, and others at the bank noting that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” with prices hovering around a multi-year low of $93/ton, a trader from the bank told clients on Tuesday that the base metal could be primed for a ‘short covering rally.’

“The desk turn slightly more constructive in the next couple of weeks, but remain structurally bearish for longer-term outlook,” Goldman’s commodity trader Mark Ma wrote in a weekly update on iron ore and steel markets, which was featured in a note distributed to clients by Thomas Evans. 

Ma said, “We expect to see short covering led rally before the long weekend and the Golden Week, after bears have gained >10% within a week only,” adding, “Pre-holiday restocking from steel mills would also add fuel to the rebound. Having said that, we still believe iron ore would remain structurally oversupplied in the long term on abundant shipment and poor Chinese demand. We don’t think the market could rebalance itself until we see production cut from mining juniors, which hasn’t materialized yet. Market sentiment can’t be more pessimistic. 9 out of 10 people in the market are bearish. Positioning wise, CTA is almost max short. Hedge ratio is high for large trading houses.” 

He expects any squeeze in the base metal could “trigger a 5% short covering bounce from here” and that clients should “be ready to sell at the $95-100” level. 

Ma continued, “Macro bears, CTA and discretionary money managers can’t wait for the peak demand season to pass to go short. Iron ore slumps for 5 consecutive days in a row to end the week 12% lower WoW.” 

The trader summarizes the driving forces behind the iron ore market, including there is elevated supply and soft demand for steel in China, and elsewhere: 

1. Market looks pass the seasonal demand recovery and continues to trade the longer term structural surplus in Fe content resulted from robust IO supply and lackluster domestic steel demand.

2. Pig iron output has bottomed out at 2.2mtpd and gradually picks up on marginal margin expansion due to lower met coke and IO price. There is more room for pig iron output to grow sequentially from here to 2.3mtpd if margin could hold or further improve.

3. Portside inventory stays at elevated level on back of strong shipment from Brazil and lack of production cut from mining juniors. Import arb stays slightly negative owing to the inventory overhang. 2/3 of 150mnt+ inventory is held by traders, which leaves very little room for trading houses to speculate.

4. Index-setting tons are well supplied in both port and seaborne market. MNPJ premium all stays in negative territory. SGX curve has shifted to contango from Sep to Dec, as a result of weak premium market and poor pricing.

5. Not only MNPJ premium, but also LP and 65/62 are sold off. LP retraces to 14c/dmtu upon traders puking and MOC offering down. 65/62 is compressed to the lowest level of the year, as mills continuously switch from high grade to low grade IO consumption to reduce productivity.

6. Steel mills take the tumble as a good opportunity to restock ahead of the long weekend and upcoming golden week in early Oct. Miners and traders are also keen to sell into the pre-holiday restocking flows, and thus transaction volumes grow at lower prices.

Hot metal production across China has slumped to a seasonal low amid high inventory levels at ports. 

As for the steel market, the trader said prices touched a “7-year low upon the continuation of distressed property demand and slowing infra demand, in spite of a resilient steel export push.” 

In a separate note, a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham and Daan Struyven said that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” as prices traded at a two-year low. 

This was the most stunning chart from the analysts’ report: Only 1% of steel mills are profitable in the world’s second-largest economy. As profitability collapses, hot metal output declines.

Earlier this month, Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky told clients, “Iron ore is dropping to 90, China will continue to struggle, and commodities as a whole, I think, are reflecting the downgrade to growth expectations in the geography.” 

A memo released by the China Iron & Steel Association to industry insiders also noted, “There will be a certain degree of recovery in steel demand through September and October, which is favorable for the steel market.” 

“However, we need to be cautious of the impulse to restart production,” the association said, adding the risk of too much steelmaking material output could dampen “any improvement in the situation will end up a flash in the pan.”

China’s steel industry has been under pressure amid a severe property market downturn and weak economic recovery.

Last month, Baowu Steel Group Chairman Hu Wangming warned that economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy felt like a “harsh winter.”

As the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Steel’s chairman said the steel industry’s downturn could be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure than expected,” potentially mirroring the severe downturns of 2008 and 2015.

Another team of Goldman analysts, led by Yuting Yang and Lisheng Wang, published high-frequency economic indicators, including consumption and mobility; production and investment; other macro activity, and markets and policy, that revealed there was no imminent recovery in China.

Authored by Jennifer Kary for Metal Miner via oilprice.com,

• Weak domestic demand in China has led to a significant drop in steel rebar and h-beam steel prices, impacting global steel markets.
• The US construction industry, hampered by high interest rates, is preparing for a potential resurgence in demand as the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts in late 2024.
• While interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate the US construction sector, the recovery may not be immediate.

The Construction MMI (Monthly Metals Index) broke further out of its sideways trend, dipping by 3.61%. The main culprits driving the index down month-over-month were falling steel rebar and h-beam steel prices, compelled by weak domestic demand within China. With China’s property sector not anticipated to strengthen in the short term, steel prices could continue to witness bearish pressure. This, in turn, could impact the steel and construction industries far beyond China’s borders.

H-Beam and Steel Rebar Prices Drop Amid Weak Chinese Demand

The global steel market took a turn over the past month as h-beam and steel rebar prices dropped in response to weakened domestic demand in China. This drop, a direct result of China’s ongoing construction slowdown and tightening restrictions on financing for real estate developers, continues to create ripple effects across global steel markets.

Slowing Demand, Sliding Steel Prices

China’s real estate sector, which accounts for a significant portion of steel consumption, witnessed a decline in new projects as government-imposed restrictions on developer financing weigh heavily on the market. This has significantly reduced demand for h-beam steel and steel rebar, essential components for heavy-duty construction.

For Chinese steel rebar, prices dropped by about 7% through August and early September. Meanwhile, the ongoing weak domestic demand is causing an oversupply situation that has spilled into global markets.

The h-beam steel market has experienced a similar downturn, with Chinese prices dropping approximately 7-8% from August to September. This, too, reflects the broader slowdown in infrastructure and construction in China’s property sector.

Global Impact of China’s Steel Slowdown on Steel Prices

China’s weakened steel demand continues to impact global demand as well. This is mainly because China is responsible for more than half of the world’s steel production. As Chinese suppliers flood international markets with excess steel products, other major economies are seeing downward price pressure on both h-beam and rebar steel.

This means that countries that rely heavily on steel imports are now witnessing price decreases in construction materials, which could benefit industries like real estate and infrastructure. However, this trend also risks creating imbalances in global trade. With the Chinese government showing no signs of loosening financing restrictions for developers, the construction sector is unlikely to see a rapid recovery.

Meanwhile, the outlook for steel rebar and h-beam steel remains similar. Without a clear resurgence in infrastructure projects within China, the oversupply of steel in the global market will likely persist, keeping prices low through the end of the year and further threatening domestic producers of steel in other countries, who can’t compete with such low prices.

U.S. Construction Industry Prepares for Anticipated Interest Rate Drops

The U.S. construction industry currently finds itself in a precarious, yet hopeful situation. For over a year, high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have cast a shadow over the sector, dampening new residential and commercial projects and pushing developers to the sidelines. However, the anticipation of rate cuts—projected to begin in the latter half of 2024—recently sparked a wave of preparation across the industry.

For the past 18 months, high borrowing costs have slowed the pace of U.S. construction. As high mortgage rates deterred buyers, developers, facing skyrocketing financing costs, significantly scaled back on projects. In fact, construction spending fell for the first time in over a year in mid-2024, signaling a growing weariness across the industry.

The business sector endured the most hardship, as expenditures on retail stores, medical facilities, and offices declined. Meanwhile, the rising cost of mortgages discouraged both developers and potential homeowners, negatively impacting residential building.

The Fed’s Shift in Strategy

The construction industry is already adjusting its strategy in light of signals from Federal Reserve officials that interest rate reductions may start by late 2024. Builders are preparing to profit from a drop in borrowing rates, which could spur demand for residential and commercial real estate once again.

Still, project planning acceleration is one of the tactics. Many developers delayed starting new projects to wait for anticipated rate decreases that will lower the cost of financing, hoping to capitalize on the surge of fresh demand.

How Will Interest Rate Cuts Impact the Construction Industry?

The Federal Reserve’s decision to start cutting interest rates will behoove the construction sector in several ways. First, developers will find it easier to finance new projects as borrowing costs drop. Both residential and commercial building will probably see a resurgence due to this, especially in the housing industry, which suffered significantly under high borrowing rates.?

Also, lower interest rates in the commercial real estate market will make borrowing less expensive for companies wishing to grow or restore real estate. This would revive the market for commercial buildings, shopping centers, and industrial sites, reversing some of the declines seen in recent months. However, while interest rate cuts will undoubtedly have a positive impact, the recovery may not be immediate.

An all-commercial group of four civilian space astronauts aboard the SpaceX Dragon Capsule via the Polaris Dawn mission has just achieved a significant milestone.

“Polaris Dawn and Dragon at 1,400 km above Earth – the farthest humans have traveled since the Apollo program over 50 years ago,” Elon Musk’s space company wrote on X early Wednesday morning. 

Polaris Dawn and Dragon at 1,400 km above Earth – the farthest humans have traveled since the Apollo program over 50 years ago pic.twitter.com/rRDeD1dY1e

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 11, 2024

Musk quoted SpaceX’s post by saying, “Strive to greater heights, For a future brighter than the past, Waking up each morning inspired, To learn new secrets of the Universe!” 

Polaris Dawn on X provided a mission update:

The Polaris Dawn crew completed their first day on-orbit, also known as Flight Day 1. After a successful launch by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 5:23 a.m. ET, the crew took off their spacesuits and began their multi-day mission.

Shortly after liftoff, the crew began a two-day pre-breathe protocol in preparation for their anticipated spacewalk on Thursday, September 12 (Flight Day 3). During this time, Dragon’s pressure slowly lowers while oxygen levels inside the cabin increase, helping purge nitrogen from the crew’s bloodstreams. This will help lower the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during all spacewalk operations.

About two hours into Flight Day 1, the crew enjoyed their first on-orbit meals before engaging in the mission’s first science and research block and testing Starlink, which lasted about 3.5 hours.

About two hours into Flight Dragon made its first pass through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), a region where Earth’s magnetic field is weaker, allowing more high-energy particles from space to penetrate closer to Earth. Mission control operators and the crew worked closely to monitor and respond to the vehicle’s systems across all high-apogee phases of flight, particularly through the SAA region.ay 1, the crew enjoyed their first on-orbit meals before engaging in the mission’s first science and research block and testing Starlink, which lasted about 3.5 hours.

Mid-day, the crew settled in for their first sleep period in space, during which Dragon will perform its first apogee raising burn. Orbiting Earth higher than any humans in over 50 years, the crew will rest for about eight hours ahead of a busy day on Flight Day 2.

Most excitingly, during its first orbit, Dragon reached an apogee of approximately 1,216 kilometers, making Polaris Dawn the highest Dragon mission flown to date. Following a healthy systems checkout, the crew and mission control will monitor the spacecraft ahead of the vehicle raising itself to an elliptical orbit of 190 x 1,400 kilometers at the start of Flight Day 2.

Polaris Dawn Flight Day 1 Update

The Polaris Dawn crew completed their first day on-orbit, also known as Flight Day 1. After a successful launch by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 5:23 a.m. ET, the… pic.twitter.com/pcmEF5k2S3

— Polaris (@PolarisProgram) September 10, 2024

Meanwhile, back on Earth, radical leftists in the Biden administration have ramped up their weaponization of federal agencies against Musk’s SpaceX.

Elon Musk Says First Starship Mars Mission In Two Years; Make America Healthy Again To Ensure Space-Bearing Civilization https://t.co/UlI8RcxufW

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2024

Musk expects the first uncrewed Starship mega-rocket to Mars will lift off in two years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. 

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

In a remarkable exchange, a leftist Kamala Harris supporter argued that her accepting an endorsement from Dick Cheney was justifiable, and that even accepting endorsements from the most genocidal of maniacs would be just fine.

The comments were made by leftist streamer and YouTuber ‘Destiny’, who was invited onto Piers Morgan’s show to defend Harris’ “honor” at being championed by Cheney, who many consider to be a war criminal.

When Morgan asked Destiny if he would be accepting of Cheney’s endorsement, he responded “you take any endorsement you can get, of course. Just because somebody endorses you doesn’t mean that you support their beliefs.”

Morgan shot back “Really? Woah, woah, woah — hang on. You’d take any endorsement you can get? So if Adolf Hitler decides to offer an endorsement, you would accept it?”

The Harris supporter then claimed “a vote is a vote” prompting Morgan to again ask if he would “literally take an endorsement from Adolf Hitler to win power.”

The guy then responded that “Hitler is dead,” prompting Morgan to note “So my question to you was frivolous to start with, would you accept Hitler’s endorsement for a candidate and you said absolutely, didn’t dispute it, and then you said, ‘But he’s dead.’ So then I said, ‘What about Kim Jong-un or President Xi or Vladimir Putin or the Ayatollah Khomeini?’ I mean, at what point do these endorsements, if you accept them proudly, become actually disgraceful slurs on your own integrity?”

The streamer then suggested it was all “nonsense” and suggested Ron Paul was once endorsed by white supremacists and didn’t disavow it.

“Just because somebody endorses me doesn’t mean that I support all the views of that person. You would agree with that, right?” he asked Morgan.

“Sorry no. I would say — no if the KKK wants to endorse me, I will publicly denounce that endorsement and say I want nothing to do with it. That is called being a civilized human being. You appear, Destiny, correct me if I’m wrong, to be of the view that literally any endorsement that helps you win power is absolutely fine even if they’re genocidal maniacs,” Morgan responded.

Watch the segment below.

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