Despite the positive development of a shaky US-Iran ceasefire holding, the reality is that Tehran still maintains de facto control over the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. A mere few vessels passed without incident on Wednesday, before Iran’s military closed the strait again, citing Israel’s massive attacks on Lebanon.

The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, “Iran’s approval system for ships granted safe passage – after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened.”

“Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said,” the AP report continues. “Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.”

There are currently few indicators revealing Iran’s intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel’s anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.

Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz.

While this has not been confirmed officially by the Islamic Republic or IRGC, the following comes via TASS on Thursday:

Under the ceasefire agreement, Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source told TASS ahead of talks in Islamabad.

“Under the current ceasefire, fewer than 15 ships per day are permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This movement is strictly contingent upon Iran’s approval and the enforcement of a specific protocol. This new regulatory framework, operating under the supervision of the IRGC, has been officially communicated to regional parties. There will be no return to the pre-war status quo,” the source said.

The same source additionally indicated that “the unfreezing of Iran’s blocked assets is a critical executive guarantee that must be realized within this two-week timeframe.”

Also, Iran is demanding that the end of the war must be formalized in a resolution of the United Nations Security Council: “If the termination of the war is not codified into a UN Security Council resolution based on our stipulated terms, we are fully prepared to resume combat against the US and the Zionist regim —just as we have over the past 40 days, and with even greater intensity,” the source told TASS. Iran is further saying the US cannot build up more forces in the region during the two week ceasefire interim.

As for Iran’s protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s list outlines the following on where things stand:

• Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
• Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
• IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation

All of this means that the Iranian delegation in Pakistan will possess real leverage when it meets with the US side led by Vice President JD Vance this weekend. The White House has said talks are set to begin Saturday.

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist of Rabobank

The trouble with ceasefires is that they often require both sides to agree to a set of terms, and then actually cease fire. However, if the set of terms are not comprehensively established and neither side can be held accountable to pause hostilities, then the so-called “ceasefire” loses all meaning.

Yesterday morning, Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth spoke about the Iran war ceasefire in a press conference. According to Hegseth, the US has achieved a “historic and overwhelming victory.” We have previously highlighted that in order for the US to achieve its stated goal of ending Iranian nuclear programs, regime change plays a fundamental role. 

Hegseth has explicitly said that regime change has been achieved, echoing Trump who posted on social media that Iran “has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change!” However, the rhetoric out of the IRGC and the continued execution of Iranian protestors may indicate otherwise. Hegseth also said that Iran will “never have nuclear weapons” and that the Strait of Hormuz was indeed open for business.

At around 1:00pm ET yesterday, it was announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed amid dispute over ceasefire terms. When a ceasefire is typically negotiated, this includes some formal written agreement. While that may be the case with the current “ceasefire”, the public has yet to see one. A lack of clearly defined and agreed upon terms leaves room for confusion. 

Just to show how much of a shitshow this whole thing is:

Qalibaf says that restraining Israel from attacks in Lebanon was the “first clause” of the 10-point proposal, but it wasn’t the first clause in versions published by Iran’s state news agency or IRGC-affiliated Tasnim… https://t.co/a3hbA8nNf7

— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) April 8, 2026

Israel conducted what was referred to as the “largest attack yet” on Hezbollah in Lebanon yesterday, with Israeli PM Netanyahu asserting that Lebanon and Hezbollah were not included in the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu also provided his view on the ceasefire, declaring that this ceasefire is not the end of the war, but rather a “station en route to achieving aims.” 

The war certainly does not seem to be over, given Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again, citing Israel’s “breach.” While the ceasefire announcement laid out by Iran does clearly state that the ceasefire extends to “Lebanon and other regions” (which may call into question the Iranian attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and the Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline in the ceasefire aftermath), the statement from the US does not, and Trump backed Netanyahu’s interpretation that Hezbollah was still fair game.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, of course, also breaches the US stipulations for the ceasefire, including the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” Crucially, US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that this also means Iran must operate the passage free of tolls or other duties.

EU players also released a statement to say that they “welcome the two-week ceasefire” and that their “Governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Administration seemed skeptical of the EU’s commitment with Leavitt saying that over the course of the past few weeks, “they [the EU and NATO] were tested, and they failed.”

But the EU and NATO may have an opportunity to redeem themselves in Trump’s eyes. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said on X that three clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal had been violated, these being the aforementioned “ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions,” as well as the “entry of an intruding drone into Iranian airspace,” and finally the “denial of Iran’s right to [uranium] enrichment.” 

As Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi said on X yesterday, the ball is now in the US’ court. Everyone, but the US right now, is still lobbing missiles. So will the US hold up its commitment to halt offensive measures or put an official end to the ceasefire?

Markets are awaiting a response from the White House as well. Financial markets eagerly digested the ceasefire news from Tuesday in earnest, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.4% yesterday on the open, and trading around the $6,750-6,790 level all day, despite headline fury. 

Global macro markets were a little more sensitive to (war) hawkish headlines. While US Treasury yields gapped lower at the open, 2 year Treasury yields spent the day creeping higher 6bp to 3.79% from open, and 10 year yields up 3bp to 4.29%. But the market that (surprisingly) barely moved yesterday was crude oil. Crude one month futures fell more than $16 to $94/bbl after the news of a ceasefire first broke, but the Strait reclosing and the fragility of the ceasefire exposed resulted in minimal price action, with crude closing at around $96/bbl.

These market moves may provide some insight into the US Administration’s logic in attempting this ceasefire in the first place. While one school of thought suggests that a ceasefire is a way to walk back Trump’s pugnacious rhetoric from Tuesday morning, the Administration may also be banking on the temporary market reprieve. We have suspected that prior so-called “TACO” trades from the Trump Administration were partially driven by negative market reactions, like the stress in US Treasuries after Liberation Day in April of 2025, or last summer when Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell.

A ceasefire announcement that is well-received by the market could soothe markets and inflationary expectations, as well as depress the price of oil—which it has done for the time being. Should the Trump Administration choose to ramp up offensive measures in two weeks (or even today), it’s possible that the jump in prices may be somewhat mitigated, as we’re bouncing off of a “suppressed” crude level of $94/bbl, as opposed to the $110/bbl level we were at earlier in the week. While the moving parts here are extremely complex and there is likely much more at play here than just “because markets,” the markets angle is still something to think about.

In other markets-related news, yesterday the Fed released the Minutes from the March 18 meeting. According to said Minutes, “most” FOMC board members said that a “protracted war could hit jobs” and “warrant rate cuts.” On the other hand, “many” board members said “inflation higher for longer could call for hikes.” These very insightful and directional comments maintained US OIS pricing expectations at no hikes nor cuts this year. 

Fervo Energy and Turboden, part of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group, announced a three-year framework agreement to supply Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turbines for up to 35 of Fervo’s standardized 50 MW GeoBlocks. The deal totals 1.7 gigawatts of carbon-free, dispatchable baseload power, marking a major step toward scaling next-generation geothermal across the United States.

The agreement builds directly on an earlier pact covering three GeoBlocks at Fervo’s Cape Station project in Utah, where Phase I commissioning is now in advanced stages with startup expected later this year. By locking in supply chain capacity and shortening lead times for Turboden’s proprietary ORC technology, the framework strengthens domestic manufacturing resilience and accelerates project timelines at a moment when U.S. power demand is surging from data centers and AI infrastructure.

ORC units efficiently convert geothermal heat into electricity, delivering the firm 24/7 power that intermittent renewables struggle to match. Fervo CEO Tim Latimer called the collaboration with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries a key move to “strengthen the supply chain needed to build geothermal at scale.”

This announcement arrives as interest in geothermal and nuclear power intensifies. With electricity demand exploding from AI and data centers, the market is showing a growing distaste for intermittent renewables that cannot guarantee reliable baseload power when needed most.

We hope nobody has forgotten how (not) helpful renewable energy was during Winter Storm Fern…

There’s a difference between what wind and solar promise, and what they can deliver.

During Winter Storm Fern, these energy sources failed to deliver the reliable power our communities needed. It’s time for Democrats to realize our grid requires coal, natural gas, and nuclear… pic.twitter.com/mZWFpohqW0

— Energy and Commerce Committee (@HouseCommerce) February 10, 2026

We first highlighted Fervo’s potential in the geothermal revolution reshaping America’s energy mix, where enhanced techniques and big-tech backing are turning the Earth’s heat into a practical solution for exploding electricity needs.

This latest supply deal also comes just weeks after we covered the DOE’s $171 million push for next-gen geothermal field tests.

With over 470 Turboden plants operating worldwide, the partnership positions Fervo to deliver reliable megawatts wherever the grid needs them most.

In an era of relentless demand growth, that kind of firm capacity looks increasingly indispensable.
 

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee on April 8 threatened to file contempt of Congress charges against former Attorney General Pam Bondi if she doesn’t testify before the House as part of its ongoing investigation into deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The House Oversight Committee confirmed to The Epoch Times on Wednesday that the Justice Department had said Bondi would no longer appear for a congressional deposition on April 14 “since she is no longer Attorney General and was subpoenaed in her capacity as Attorney General.”

“The Committee will contact Pam Bondi’s personal counsel to discuss next steps regarding scheduling her deposition,” the committee said in a statement.

Ranking Member Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said in a statement that if Bondi “does not come in to testify, we will begin contempt charges in Congress.”

“Our bipartisan subpoena is to Pam Bondi, whether she is the Attorney General or not,” Garcia said.

Committee Chair James Comer (R-K.Y.) issued a subpoena to Bondi on March 17 to order her testimony regarding the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files.

Democrats and several Republicans have accused her of violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act through the Justice Department’s piecemeal release of documents, and for redacting alleged co-conspirator names while leaving some victim names un-redacted.

Enacted late last year with bipartisan support, the Epstein Files Transparency Act mandates that the Justice Department publicly release all non-classified records related to the investigation and prosecution of Epstein and his convicted co-conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) moved in early March to subpoena Bondi to testify before Congress. Four other Republicans—Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Michael Cloud (R-Texas), and Scott Perry (R-Pa.)—joined Democrats on the House Oversight Committee to support Mace’s motion.

Bondi has repeatedly defended the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files and denied Democrats’ allegations that she was obstructing congressional oversight.

The Justice Department called the subpoena “completely unnecessary” at the time.

On Wednesday, Mace reacted to the news that Bondi will no longer appear at next week’s deposition and suggested the Oversight Committee may still subpoena her, now that the former attorney general is a private citizen.

“Pam Bondi cannot escape accountability simply because she no longer holds the office of Attorney General. Our motion to subpoena Pam Bondi, which was passed by the Oversight Committee, was for Bondi by name, not by title,” Mace wrote on social media.

“She will still have to appear before the Oversight Committee for a sworn deposition. The American people deserve answers, and we expect her to appear as soon as a new date is set.”

The House Oversight Committee also recently enforced subpoenas ordering former President Bill Clinton and former First Lady Hillary Clinton to testify regarding Congress’s investigation into Epstein.

As the dust begins to settle from the latest escalation in the Iran conflict, markets are left to grapple with a more complicated question: what comes next? Is this the beginning of a reset toward stability, another leg up in markets, and lower inflation -or- are the early stages of a broader economic unraveling tied to supply shocks, currency stress, and geopolitical fragmentation? Not to mention… is the Straight of Hormuz even open? Reports are that Iran is only allowing passage after a hefty payment in either cryptocurrency or Chinese Yuan.

Tonight at 7pm ET, longtime market commentator Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber squares off against Brent Johnson, with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money moderating. 

Faber is an OG dollar bear while Johnson is critical of the “US Empire is doomed to fail” crowd.

Remember when KSA was going to pivot from the west to the BRICS…? https://t.co/N34E8RiY4S

— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) March 28, 2026

Nonetheless Johnson has warned, in a recent post on his research blog, that “rationing hits next. And the downstream effects…energy prices, manufacturing inputs, food prices…follow on a timeline that stretches months, not days.” He says consequences are largely baked in, as most ships take 10 to 45 days to reach their destination and are just leaving now.

“What’s actually happening right now is slower, quieter, and more consequential than anything in the financial press.”

Faber has consistently bashed paper money, in all its forms, as destined to fall to zero against the price of gold:

pic.twitter.com/nbFE21ssKn

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) April 8, 2026

Where he and Johnson might agree is that it is unlikely for the Euro or the Japanese Yen to unseat the dollar. But could the Chinese Yuan or a basket currency put forth by BRICS? Especially if backed by gold (or advertised as such), might other countries begin making the switch?

Iran has long known the risks of dealing in U.S. dollar-denominated assets that may be frozen unilaterally. However, the country has also now learned the consequences of challenging U.S. (or perhaps more accurately in their case, Israel) regional hegemony. So, if more countries announced their intention to de-dollarize, would the American government strike such initiatives down by force a la Libya? And even if the U.S. tries, does it become too many impossible fires to put out? Global market forces could usher in a return to gold whether the Pentagon likes it or not.

Taggart, Faber, and Johnson will answer these questions tonight, here on the ZeroHedge homepage at 7pm ET.

Weather forecasters are sounding the alarm about what could become a “super” El Niño event, potentially one of the strongest on record.

“Strongest El Niño on record this year?!” meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X. Noll said the latest ECMWF outlook indicates a 75% chance of a super El Niño by October, with “some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.”

Strongest El Niño on record this year?!

New ECMWF guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.

It will bring wide-reaching weather impacts that last into 2027 🧵 pic.twitter.com/cRZrxGCxAa

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 6, 2026

Noll said, “El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.”

Latest El Niño odds:

• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August

• 80% chance of a strong event

• 98% chance of a moderate event

El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.

By the numbers:

• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August
• 80% chance of a strong event
• 98% chance of a moderate event

That’s according to data from 50 ensemble members. pic.twitter.com/LDOogrRcEC

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) March 6, 2026

Meteorologist Ryan Maue noted:

New maps causing meteorologists to lose their minds in disbelief at massive heat build-up in the Equatorial Pacific

The oceans will not literally be boiling red 🔴 in the early autumn, but the Super El Niño will drive unprecedented global extreme weather events. pic.twitter.com/cEAmGIHuFI

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) April 7, 2026

Impacts for agri traders:

As we get into the middle/end of the growing season, the influence of a Super El Niño will need to be monitored going forward in all outlooks. Check out the SST Anomalies for August!

Come chat with us about this as we continue to tweak summer outlooks: https://t.co/FOJHGVeXkc pic.twitter.com/GgTB4XXNJn

— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 7, 2026

If that scenario materializes, it could shift weather patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of flooding in some regions, drought and wildfires in others, and further raising global temperatures. An El Niño event typically strengthens the Pacific jet stream and redistributes heat and moisture globally.

Across the U.S., an El Niño influences seasonal rainfall, especially during winter. The stronger, more active jet stream typically shifts south, bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the southern U.S., including California, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-South.

The good news is that El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.

Remember, left-wing corporate media is just a few months away from firing up the “hottest ever” global warming headlines to peddle junk climate science.

Global warming doomers, such as Greta, have shifted more recently from climate alarmism to Palestine activism. It is all about following the money. 

Via Remix News,

Polish Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Mariusz Kamiński raises alarm about the European Commission’s plans to change Europol’s operations, warning that “the European Commission is quietly building EU law enforcement agencies,” reports Do Rzeczy. There are now fears that Europe could have its own FBI, with vastly expanded and centralized powers.

“The European Public Prosecutor’s Office has already been established, and now the European Commission wants to turn Europol into a ‘truly operational EU police agency.’ This means that citizens of member states will be able to become the target of investigations and operational activities of European law enforcement agencies, bypassing national authorities. This would be a real ‘milestone’ in the construction of a centralized European state. A very dangerous situation!” wrote the former interior and administration minister on X.

Kamiński sent a letter to the European Commission questioning the activities described and defending Europol as it stands.

The agency has been in operation since Jan. 3, 1994.

He notes that “Europol’s success is based on cooperation, supporting member states, and coordinating the fight against cross-border crime. Europol’s activities are particularly important in combating drug crimes, human smuggling, and VAT fraud. This model is a good example of effective cooperation at the European level.”

“Therefore, I oppose the announcements of transforming Europol into a fully operational police agency, which have been met with criticism from many experts and member states. During the LIBE meeting on March 19, 2026, Commissioner Brunner concluded his statement by saying that it will not be a European FBI, which can be interpreted as a departure from the Commission’s radical announcement,” he continued.

The PiS MEP asks: “How does the Commission understand the concept of a ‘truly operational police agency’?” and about safeguards to ensure that Europol “remains an agency supporting member states and not an authority exercising direct police powers.”

Read more here…

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

If the Union had been waiting for a favorable moment to save face and quietly escape the energy-policy fiasco, that moment has probably arrived. On Thursday, the European Parliament formed a broad coalition of the Union-backed EPP faction with the national conservatives. The goal: initiate a migration turnaround, prevent citizen chat controls, and soften the grotesque Supply Chain Act.

Among the national-conservative parties in the EU Parliament is also the AfD faction, showing that the firewall against this party is a German phenomenon—a product of hysterical left-green media makers and bloated politicians of the firewall cartel, who fear competition for their privileges.

Never has the opportunity been more favorable to leave the paralyzing logic of the firewall behind once and for all and to form national-civic coalitions than today.

Time is pressing. Germans face a wave of inflation already visible at gas stations and in heating costs. Citizens are approaching a defining initiation moment of truth. Since the beginning of the Iran crisis, fuel prices in Germany have risen by up to 25 percent on average. Gas prices rose another 20 percent in the same period. Going back to 2005, electricity prices in Germany rose a staggering 70 percent—an undeniable proof of the catastrophic failure of the Energiewende.

What the green central planners have left behind can hardly be called energy-market design in the proper sense. On the ruins of a once well-oiled, highly complex structure and the blown-up cooling towers of nuclear plants, a system with built-in fragility has arisen. In a crisis, there are neither sufficient reserves nor systemic resilience against blackouts and the looming economic super-disaster. Above it all hangs the Damocles sword of potential crises that could erupt anywhere in the world at any time and directly hit Germany.

Hormuz reveals the extent of this fragility and exposes the unbelievable hypocrisy behind the green transformation. The story of sun and wind bringing free energy was from the start a bitter fairy tale for anyone not drunk on Trittin, Habeck, and Merkel’s chatter. A mood is brewing, ranging from deep anger to utter contempt for the cult-like transformation ideology.

It is no longer hideable: green transformation is a code word for establishing a vulgar, aggressive extraction mechanism fueled by climate apocalypse fears and moralizing degrowth ideology.

A turn toward modern forms of nuclear energy and the development of Germany’s own enormous gas reserves must now be undertaken—never has public willingness to accept fracking been greater, as the economic crisis sinks into general awareness. Reasonable policy would return to the negotiating table with Russia to urgently discuss resuming gas deliveries. Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart de Wever also called for this. He is far from alone in this view. Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy are forming a real opposition that Brussels will have to reckon with.

But for now, paralysis dominates in the face of economic fallout.

It is painfully clear: Friedrich Merz and his economic minister Katherina Reiche have so far not grasped the extent of the crisis. They rely on the continuity of the green transformation and do not understand that this very construct is both the cause and the end point of the crisis. The bridge that they could now cross together with the AfD has so far been ignored. Reiche did discuss the strategic errors of German energy policy surprisingly openly last week. A possible extension of coal use is suddenly back on the table. But largely, the course remains. Together with Environment Minister Carsten Schneider, Reiche helped secure existing climate policy. Another eight billion euros will be pumped into the green patronage economy. The CO2 market and the ban on combustion engines are held fast.

Beneath it all, green hippie politics shines through like a monolith, blocking any reform effort. Strategic thinking is now needed, beginning with an honest stocktaking to make citizens aware of the true weight of political errors over the past decades. Everyone must understand: there is no simple solution. Politically induced artificial scarcity in the energy sector cannot be erased by chancellor decree.

Or will we possibly start a course correction and dare a 180-degree turn in energy policy? Ideology must give way to reason, green bubble politics to economic prudence, state interventionism to real market design. These are the pillars of the bridge that would then need strengthening and expansion.

But Friedrich Merz is not the Pontifex Maximus we need. He resists all criticism of Brussels’ transformation policies, defends the CO2 certificate trade to the bitter end, and is now preparing, together with his socialist SPD allies, a massive tax hit on the middle class. This man, along with the Union’s leadership team, stands in the way of the future. Merz is the antagonist of the national-conservative turnaround, one of many executors of green hippie politics.

Future national-conservative or national-liberal governments will waste no time fully exposing fiscal fraud, deception, and ideological madness—such as the climate complex. Restoring balance to Germany’s budget, halting Ukraine aid, ending transfers to the green complex, Brussels, and NGOs worldwide will be easy. Necessary social-state reforms, including programs to return illegal migrants, will follow.

As the crisis deepens in the coming years, patriots will gain massive support. This includes libertarians and European cultural patriots, who express their passion for homeland, their will to repair past economic damage, and their desire to preserve Europe’s cultural diversity authentically.

The willingness of people to embrace a reform course, when recognized as contributors to society again, will be overwhelming. Politicians like Katherina Reiche will regret not being part of this turnaround. No bridge will be built for today’s fence-sitters and opportunistic turncoats into future political responsibility.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Amid a major war on Iran waged in partnership with the United States, Israel’s reputation among Americans has continued to deteriorate, with 60% of US adults viewing Israel unfavorably. That’s a hefty 18-point increase from 2022, according to a new survey from Pew Research. Over the same stretch, Israel’s “favorable” share cratered by 18 points.  

While the top-line unfavorable rating is bad news for Israel, things are even worse when you look under the hood: The proportion of Americans who have a very unfavorable view of Israel now stands at 28% — triple what it was in 2022.  

Alongside his country’s sagging standing with the US public, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also increasingly unpopular, as 59% of American adults have little or no trust that he will “do the right thing regarding world affairs,” also a seven-point worsening from last year’s finding. 

Pew conducted the survey during the week of March 23-29, roughly a month into the US-Israeli war on Iran, but a few weeks before this week’s brinksmanship –which had many fearing a years-long global economic catastrophe if President Trump followed through on his threats to eradicate Iran’s “whole civilization” and Iran carried out its promised destruction of energy and water infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.   

There continue to be significant differences between Americans who associate themselves with the Democratic Party and those who are Republicans or Republican “leaners.” A whopping 80% of Democrats have an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Israel, almost doubling the 41% of Republicans who feel that way. In what may be the most significant sub-trend in US-Israeli politics, a solid 57% majority of Republicans under age 50 now have a negative view of Israel. Unless that turns around, this suggests that the GOP’s status as a fortress of Israeli support will soon be a thing of the past. Republicans are split on Netanyahu: 45% have some or a lot of confidence in him, while 44% have little or no confidence.  

There are also interesting contrasts by religious affiliation. Here’s the percent that have mostly positive views of Israel: 

• White Evangelical Protestants: 65%
• Jewish Americans: 64%
• White Non-Evangelical Protestants: 39%
• Catholics: 35%
• Black Protestants: 33%
• Unaffiliated/Atheist/Agnostic/”Nothing In Particular”: 22%

As for Trump’s handling of the US-Israel relationship, 55% lack confidence in him to make good decisions. Here again, party differences are huge: Only 16% of Democrats are confident in Trump’s management of the relationship, compared to 73% of Republicans. Here again, a huge difference within the GOP across age cohorts:  Only 52% of Republicans under 30 are confident in Trump’s decision-making vis a vis Israel, compared to an overwhelming 93% of those 65 and older. 

While Pew didn’t explore the drivers of Israel’s steadily-sagging standing with Americans, it’s safe to say that Israel’s wholesale destruction of Gaza and skepticism over the rationale for US-Israeli warfare on Iran last summer and again this year have played a big part.