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Exposing The Leftist Projectionistas: VDH

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Exposing The Leftist Projectionistas: VDH

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Projectionism

Projection is a Freudian psychological term.

It describes a particular defensive mechanism, when people, often unconsciously, attribute their own (usually undesirable) behaviors to others who do not have them.

These mental gymnastics are intended to alleviate one’s own guilt or sense of inadequacy at the expense of another.

Sound familiar?

But in the political sphere, projection involves more overt dissimulation. It is increasingly common for leftist candidates or political parties to falsely accuse their opponents of the very destructive behaviors and unpopular agendas that they themselves embrace, but out of political necessity must deny.

Rather than an unconscious Freudian defense mechanism, political projection is usually a conscious strategy of hiding one’s own negatives by fobbing them off on antagonists.

Projection often proves a quite successful ploy.

After all, the political projectionist knows best his own hazardous or off-putting conduct and policies. And so, he can most skillfully attribute just these liabilities to those who have had no experience with them.

Our Leftist Projectionists

The 2024 Harris-Walz campaign is turning out to be projectionist to the core. How?

First: Kamala Harris and her new running mate Governor Tim Walz have long advanced fringe leftist political agendas.

(Her “everyone needs to be woke” and his claim that riots happen because society doesn’t prioritize “equity and inclusion.”)

They have been loud in their fringe cultural commentaries, which are not just unpopular but roundly rejected by the majority of the electorate. And they know that if they become open and honest about what they have done, they will likely be defeated.

Second: On a more personal level, both are attacking the behavior and conduct of their rivals as a way of deflecting attention from their own weaknesses on that score.

Thus, this kind of projection, about both policy and personal behavior, is more common on the left because its ideology is fundamentally far more distant from the views of most voters.

A few examples reveal that 2024 is turning out to be the most projectionist campaign in memory—and logically so, because the Democratic Harris-Walz ticket is unappealingly left-wing and thus vulnerable.

Harris is now barnstorming the country, repeating many times per day a teleprompted narrative that she sought to close the border and stop illegal immigration.

Donald Trump, she claims, did just the opposite, and is thus weak on the border. This idea of an open-borders Trump pitted against a secure-borders Harris is a classic Big Lie—if not utterly unhinged and surreal.

As a senator in 2017-20, Harris repeatedly fought President Trump’s secure border efforts.

Trump battled for a secure border against the likes of Harris (whose record was the most left-wing in the Senate), the administrative state, “anonymous” moles within his own administration, DNC-spawned lawsuits, and liberal justices.

All of them battled to keep the border open and the inflow of illegal aliens as large as possible—given that they felt subsidizing a huge illegal alien population would create loyal voters in the new era of poorly audited early and mail-in balloting.

Innate to the new hard-left Democratic party is a globalist ideology that regards borders as anachronisms. Thus, anyone should be allowed to travel and reside in any country he pleases, while deserving state support to accomplish such migrations.

Those agendas were why the entire leftist consortium tried to halt Trump’s efforts to build a wall. They embraced catch-and-release and allowed illegal aliens to claim “refugee” status once inside the United States. They fought Trump tooth and nail when he tried to beef up ICE and other border security agencies.

Harris went to absurd lengths in her open-borders agenda. She bizarrely even blasted the public at Christmas time for daring to say “Merry Christmas” when, she alleged, young foreign nationals, here illegally, could not enjoy such holidays. When she called for reforming border security, she said of ICE—“And we need to probably think about starting from scratch.”

Harris accused the border patrol falsely of whipping Haitian illegal aliens and compared them to the enforcers of slavery.

As a California attorney general Harris championed sanctuary cities and the state’s neo-Confederate nullification of federal immigration laws.

She and Tim Walz both supported giving free health care to foreigners who arrived illegally in the United States. Harris claimed that illegal entry into the U.S. was not a criminal offense.

Most notoriously, Harris was part and parcel of the Biden-Harris-Alejandro Mayorkas administration that destroyed the border and allowed a record 10 million illegal aliens to enter the U.S. freely and without vetting.

So why is Harris projecting her own politics onto the border-hawk Trump, falsely claiming that he opposed bipartisan “comprehensive border reform”—a tired euphemism for the failed election-era gimmick of legitimizing the unimpeded entrance of millions more illegal aliens?

Because Harris knows that, of all the unpopular Biden-Harris initiatives, the wide-open border and accompanying unchecked influxes of unvetted illegal aliens have proved the most unpopular.

And Harris knows that she supported this nihilist policy and that she will again embrace it after the election in her remaining three months as vice president—and, if elected president, for another four years.

But for the next 80 days, Harris will lie, in utterly cynical fashion, that she is with the voters on enforced borders and regulated immigration and against Trump, the supposed open-border liberal. Note that Harris is still vice president and apparently remains “border czar” for the next five months. Thus, she could stop all illegal immigration right now. And, even if not elected president, she could ensure its end through November and until January 20, 2025.

In the personal domain, Tim Walz, and his supporters are now alleging that his opponent J. D. Vance is not a true veteran of the Iraq War, because he was mostly assigned to a non-combat unit.

Walz and company are projecting in this absurd fashion because Walz himself has lied that he served in a combat zone and implied he was deployed to either Iraq or Afghanistan or both when he in fact left the National Guard before it was deployed to a combat theater. On yet another occasion, he claimed to have carried weapons “in war” when he had never been in combat theater his entire life. He also falsely claimed to have retired as a Command Sergeant Major, when he instead demonstrably held a lower rank.

As a way of hiding these untruths, Walz projects lies onto Vance.

But anyone knows who has been to Iraq during the war, and especially during the surge—whether as a journalist embedded with ground troops or on an official military-arranged helicopter and plane visits to outlying American bases and troop installations—Iraq was a combat zone everywhere.

There were no traditional fronts and no safe areas. Troops got killed inside the supposedly safe “green zone.” They were shot and killed or blown up in Humvees while traveling on allegedly secure roads and in purportedly secure bases. Journalists and bureaucrats alike were killed by IEDs, barrages, and sniper fire—anywhere and everywhere.

Vance was in such a 24/7 combat environment when he was deployed to Iraq. Classic projection is clear when the soldier who avoided combat deployments projects his guilt, embarrassment, or fear of criticism onto an antagonist who chose the very opposite conduct and behavior.

In the year of the projectionist, watch how Harris—who obsessively avoids any live, impromptu, or ex tempore talk or interview—blasts Trump—who cannot restrain himself from talking publicly to anyone—for supposedly seeking to escape debating her.

Watch how she rails against voter IDs with accusations that her opponents want to warp balloting—while she has encouraged massive, unaudited mail-in voting and third-party vote harvesting, along with 10 million new potential illegal voters conveniently entering the U.S.

Watch how Harris blasts “radical Republicans,” as she intends (together with a Democratic congress) to pack the court, go after the filibuster, and admit new states to get on the cheap four left-wing senators.

Watch Harris scream that the near-unprecedented Biden-Harris inflation—which saw staples including food, power, gas, rent, cars, and insurance soar by 20-30 percent during her tenure—was supposedly caused by ex-president Trump, who left office three years ago with a 1.2 percent inflation rate.

Watch the projectionist Walz claim that Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy who grew up in an impoverished Appalachia, is actually an elite because he went to law school at Yale, while Walz was a rural Nebraska boy who stayed rural in outlook.

In fact, Vance is the first poor white boy presidential or vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton (who also went to Yale Law School) ran in 1992. Meanwhile, Walz once scoffed not to take the overwhelmingly conservative map of Minnesota too seriously since there were only “rocks and cows” out there.

Watch Walz scream about “weird” Republicans—as he let Minneapolis burn for days in the awful summer of 2020 before calling in the National Guard, as his wife opened their official residence’s windows to get an authentic whiff of the revolutionary arson, and as his daughter tweeted out assurances to rioters not to worry about being arrested or stopped by the National Guard given her inside knowledge, they would not be sent in.

Watch Biden claim that Trump will attack democracy if he loses. This comes from a president who has unleashed lawfare against his opponent, who was removed from his own reelection candidacy by a backroom cabal, and whose mental disabilities have been hidden from the public by the same dark forces who recently forced him out—but only when his polls dived, and he threatened other Democratic candidates. Note Harris is the first modern presidential candidate who has never won a single delegate in a single primary but was anointed by a fiat of unnamed donors and politicos.

The first cousin of projection is the more familiar vice of hypocrisy, marginally preferable to projection in that here the other side is at least doing what they’re accused of.

Harris’s hypocrisy is stunning and shameless. For example, she has blasted Trump’s demand for voter IDs as racist and voter suppression. Yet Harris demands the very same sort of photo IDs from all who would attend her rallies.

Her logic, apparently, is that verifying the citizenship of voters is not as important as proving you have obtained a ticket to her rally and are not unlawfully seeking to enter her own event. Her message to the public is that the security of American balloting is hardly as important as the security of her own rallies.

The second cousin of projection is simple lying about one’s real intentions, virtually inevitable for the side with the less popular ideology.

Once elected, Vice President Harris felt she could safely push unpopular restrictions on pipelines, existing oil and gas fields, and new federal energy leasing to please her leftist circle and in pursuit of her ‘green new deal’ agendas. Now facing a presidential election, and the need for cheaper gasoline and fracking jobs in swing states, she is pro-fracking and drilling for oil and gas.

As president, she would inevitably revert to her consistent earlier advocacies. And they range from federal gun confiscation and nullifying (“snatching”) private enterprise patents to controlling not only food prices but also wages that she deems not meeting her standards of “gender equity”.

At long last, can’t we take away the projection, the hypocrisy, and the concealment of one’s real positions, not to mention all the past collusion, disinformation, and lawfare, and just let the people decide whether they really want to return to the leftist vision of America as fundamentally flawed, inherently racist, and in desperate need of corrective illiberalism?

Can’t the left be honest that it wants massive government redistributive action in health, education, and welfare, fueled by enormous government spending increases, more taxes, and more administrative-state overseers?

And can’t the left be honest to Americans about their globalist view that America is only exceptional to the degree that any country believes it is exceptional—but demonstrably not exceptional enough to warrant secure borders, a free market economy, legal-only immigration, a strong deterrent military, and a content-of-our-character-not-color-of-our-skin approach to race?

Or to put it another way, if you don’t want what the people want, you have to project.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 16:20

Dovish Fed & Dismal Job-Revisions Send Bonds, Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Higher

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Dovish Fed & Dismal Job-Revisions Send Bonds, Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Higher

‘Bad news’ – a record downward revision in payrolls – combined with a strongly ‘dovish’ bias to the FOMC Minutes sent rate-cut expectations soaring today…

Source: Bloomberg

…dominated by 2024 dovishness – dramatically more than The Fed’s single-cut expectation…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that sparked a buying-panic in bonds, bitcoin, stocks, and gold (but the dollar and crude tumbled).

Stocks and bonds are (arguably) disagreeing…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks initially surged on the BLS bad news and Dovish Fed, but some reality started to set in again that ‘growth scares’ are real enough to have prompted The Fed to consider a July cut and now a September cut seems locked in.

The market was completely confused at what to do with the payrolls revisions at first – which were delayed (but leaked to several banks).

Small Caps led on the day (big short squeeze) but the rest of the majors ended up giving gains back. The last ten minutes of the day saw the machines back in charge, lifting stocks off unchanged…

Small Caps gains were once again on the back of a major short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Mag7 stocks went nowhere for the second day, stalled at the pre-payrolls highs…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX rose for the second day in a row, back above 16…

…and worse still, VVIX (the real fear gauge) extended its bounce back above the 100 Maginot Line…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -6bps, 30Y -1bps). The entire curve is now below pre-CPI levels of yield…

Source: Bloomberg

…smashing the 2Y yield back below 4.00% (having stalled at pre-CPI high yields)…

Source: Bloomberg

That steepened the yield curve significantly, erasing the flattening post-CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued to dump, hitting 5-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above $61,000 (helped by potential short squeeze)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied after the Fed Minutes, having been stomped back below $2500 (once again near The London Fix) earlier in the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices tracked bond yields lower, with WTI dropping to a $71 handle…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is Harris’ honeymoon ending?

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Polymarket

Prediction markets are trending back towards Trump.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 16:00

44 DNC Delegates Snub Harris With ‘Present’ Vote

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44 DNC Delegates Snub Harris With ‘Present’ Vote

44 delegates at this week’s Democratic National Convention voted “present” during the roll call vote – a symbolic protest following Harris’ official nomination during a virtual roll call earlier this month.

Of note, during the 2020 election there were just 5 delegates who similarly abstained.

As the Daily Caller notes, among the 44 ‘present’ votes were likely 30 delegates from the “Uncommitted” protest movement – which says they “feel deeply hurt and betrayed by the President’s decisions to continue funding war crimes and the mass killing of Palestinians,” according to their website.

Some members of the Uncommitted movement represent officially uncommitted delegates, like Washington state’s Yaz Kader and Sabrene Odeh, according to The Seattle Times. Both voted present during the virtual roll call earlier in August in an effort to pressure Harris to support a ceasefire and an embargo on U.S. weapons to Israel, The Times reported.

“I entered my vote on behalf of a 10-year-old who was bombed and killed on her 10th birthday,” Odeh said, according to the outlet.

Kader and Odeh were two of 9 delegates from Washington voting present, while delegates from 12 other states joined in voting present – Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, and Tim Walz’ home state of Minnesota – with the latter leading the charge with 10 present votes, the most of any state.

Harris officially secured 4,567 out of the 4,695 available delegates.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 15:45

Judge: Virginia School District Must Allow Transgender Student On Girls’ Tennis Team

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Judge: Virginia School District Must Allow Transgender Student On Girls’ Tennis Team

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has ruled that a Virginia school district may not prevent a transgender student from playing on a girls’ middle school tennis team while the student’s lawsuit against the school board continues.

Judge M. Hannah Lauck of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia handed down the ruling against Hanover County Public Schools on Aug. 16.

In issuing the preliminary injunction, the judge said she found the 11-year-old student—identified in court documents only as “Janie Doe”—would likely succeed in the claim that the Hanover County School Board violated both Title IX and the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution when it barred the student from playing on the sports team during the 2024–2025 school year.

“Janie has established that the Board excluded her, on the basis of sex, from participating in an education program when it denied her application to try out for (and if selected, to participate on) her school’s girls’ tennis team,” Judge Lauck wrote.

The judge concluded that the district may not bar the student from trying out and playing on the girls’ tennis team this year while the lawsuit filed against the Hanover County school board proceeds.

The ruling stems from a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Virginia in July on behalf of the student—who was born a male but identifies as female—and his parents.

According to the lawsuit, the student, who “has a gender dysphoria diagnosis” and has identified as a girl since he was 7 years old, tried out for and earned a place on the girls’ tennis team as a sixth grader in August 2023.

However, shortly afterward, Hanover County’s school board sought medical documentation “evidencing Janie’s ‘consistent expression as a female.’”

About a month later, the school board “voted unanimously against permitting [Janie] to participate on the middle school girls’ tennis team,” the lawsuit states.

School Board Defends Its Decision

The lawsuit alleges that the school board discriminated against the transgender student in violation of the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause and Title IX, a longstanding federal education policy designed to protect females from discrimination based on sex.

The school board has said its decision not to allow the student to play on the girls’ team was based on ensuring fairness in competition.

It further argued in court documents that the decision was in line with the 2022 Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) model policies, which state that schools may have sports teams based on biological sex.

The judge wrote that the board’s actions “contravene the strong public interest in educational institutions being free of discrimination of all kinds, including on the basis of gender identity.”

“Because Janie Doe faces a litany of harms ranging from medical regression, social isolation and stigma, financial and logistical burdens, and the dignitary harms of either ‘outing’ her as transgender or communicating that transgender students are not welcomed or encouraged to participate in school athletics at all, Janie Doe has made more than a clear showing that the discrimination has harmed her,” the judge wrote.

ACLU of Virginia Senior Transgender Rights Attorney Wyatt Rolla welcomed the ruling, saying in a statement that the student “just wants to try out with her friends for the team she already made last year” and that “there is no evidence to support the fear that trans athletes have a categorical advantage over cisgender ones.”

Rolla accused the school board of “singling out” and bullying the transgender student.

“This ruling should make every school board—not just Hanover—think twice before using VDOE’s model policies to justify discrimination against its students,” Rolla said.

The Epoch Times contacted a Hanover County Public Schools spokesperson for comment but didn’t receive a reply by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 15:25

The Money’s On The Dresser: Harris Campaign Pays ‘Influencer Army’ To Feign Enthusiasm

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The Money’s On The Dresser: Harris Campaign Pays ‘Influencer Army’ To Feign Enthusiasm

A few short months ago, Kamala Harris was ‘dragging Biden down‘ in his bid for re-election. This, after a 2023 NBC survey found she was the most unpopular vice-president since polling began.

And while national polls are showing Harris and Donald Trump neck-and-neck, the president of the top Super PAC backing Harris says that their own internal polling is a disaster.

In order to convince voters that the cackling, intellectually challenged Harris isn’t one of the most unpopular politicians in modern history, her campaign has been engaging in a massive astroturfing campaign – paying an ‘army’ of about 200 social-media influencers to promote her at the event, Bloomberg reports.

Chartreuse green. Coconut trees. Venn diagrams. They’re motifs of a “brat” summer that has memed Kamala Harris into a narrow but perceptible lead against the master of social media — Donald Trump.

Now, as she prepares to be coronated as her party’s nominee in a presidential campaign dominated more by vibes than policy, Harris needs to keep the momentum going. So she is turning to about 200 social-media influencers, who for the first time ever have received privileges such as access to delegates and studio space at the Democratic National Convention.

For example, Monday night’s DNC in Chicago featured Deja Foxx, a Columbia University graduate (with less than 150,000 TikTok followers) who describes herself as an activist “leading thought at the intersection of social justice and social media.”

@deja_foxx #DNC Day 0 #OOTD ♬ BIRDS OF A FEATHER sped up – Lilly 🎀

Foxx, who worked on Harris’ failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, is based in Arizona – where polls are suggesting a tight race over her failure as ‘Border Czar.’

Aside from Foxx, four other influencers will speak at the DNC this week: Fox worked on Harris’ failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, according to the report.

Hilariously, one of them (‘Noor’) deleted a post expressing “compassion for the innocent civilians” affected by the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas.

“If I could do one thing differently, it would be to be even clearer about my support for the Palestinian movement for peace and freedom while still sharing my sympathy of course for Israeli civilians,” she said. Awkward!

Meanwhile, less ‘influential’ influencers will be provided access to a special pavilion and luxury box to promote Harris’ candidacy – with Democratic aides parading party all-stars to a “blue carpet” to be interviewed by the social media gaggle, which sipped free beer while making clips for their audience.

“I’m not sure I understand it in its entirety, but I think it’s important and certainly it seems to be impactful with young people in particular, so you’ve got to embrace it,” Illinois Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia told Bloomberg, which also points out that the focus on influencers “stands in contrast to the Harris campaign’s approach so far to journalists.”

Since Biden’s exit from the race, the vice president hasn’t sat for an interview with a news organization or taken questions from reporters at a formal press conference. Her opponent Trump is engaging more with the press in a bid to goad Harris into unscripted settings herself, in the hope that she stumbles or reverts back to the more liberal policy positions she espoused before joining Biden’s 2020 campaign as his running mate. -Bloomberg

According to the NY Post, the Harris campaign is looking to enlist some 5,000 online influencers by the November election.

Trying to compete with Trump hype

On Monday, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) admitted that “One of the frustrations for us and our party is that these guys just captured the Internet.”

Hilariously, she suggested that ‘childless cat ladies’ offended by Trump running mate JD Vance “united” after Vance’s comment.

In short, the strategy is to mock themselves before MAGA can own said mockery.

“When they go after Kamala for coconut trees, there’s coconut memes, there’s brat summer, there’s her laugh set to Zoom music. We have taken this back.”

Meanwhile, Trump campaign senior advisor Alex Brueswitz told the Post: “There is a difference between influence and influencers. They have Harry Sisson who just yells into a Democrat echo chamber, we collaborate with individuals who have massive non-partisan audiences that may be Trump curious.”

“The same corporate media that let Biden pull the wool over people’s eyes is doing the same thing with Kamala… she won’t do an interview but she’ll pop up awkwardly into a seven second TikTok,” Trump Campaign Senior Advisor Danielle Alvarez told the outlet. “Everything about Trump is authentic and organic whereas people are trying to make Kamala cool because she is not capable of doing it herself.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 12:25

Jordan Peterson’s Free Speech Battle

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Jordan Peterson’s Free Speech Battle

Authored by Barry Bussey via The Epoch Times,

Since 2016, when Jordan Peterson criticized amendments to Canada’s Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code to include “gender identity and expression” as prohibited grounds for discrimination, he has been in the public eye. He argued that mandating the use preferred pronouns was a form of compelled speech and identity politics run amok.

Peterson’s latest ordeal of having to undergo mandatory training by his regulatory college in order to keep his psychologist’s licence after the country’s highest court refused to hear his appeal, marking another pivotal moment for the free-speech advocate, has once again brought him into the national spotlight.

The college seized upon complaints from individuals around the world—none of whom were Peterson’s patients—to demand that he undergo remedial training on how to conduct himself on social media.

This case transcends Peterson and sets a precedent for all professionals subject to regulatory bodies.

Professionals now face the reality that they must self-censor to avoid punitive actions by their professional overseers. Peterson’s case could impact all Canadian professionals, not just psychologists, by forcing them into ideological compliance or facing professional ruin. It demands serious reflection from all professionals. If you are regulated by a body that determines your livelihood, you have no choice but to recognize the danger and speak out against these encroachments on free speech before it’s too late—for you and for the country.

Peterson revealed that many professionals have reached out to him, emphasizing the importance of this case. But this issue goes beyond just regulatory bodies.

Our key institutions need to be free of ideology. Yet we have witnessed them becoming oriented in the same direction as the prevailing philosophical changes incubated at universities. Justices increasingly rely on law clerks—top law graduates—for research in writing their decisions. These clerks are frequently recommended by professors, some of whom were once court clerks themselves. This close-knit relationship with law schools makes the court system vulnerable to being swayed by the latest academic trends.

Moreover, the courts have increasingly been amenable to the idea that “experts” should be allowed to do their jobs with limited interference. Bureaucratic decisions become sacrosanct because the courts are reluctant to second-guess the “experts.” If charter rights are violated by these decisions, this can be excused if bureaucrats consider “charter values,” a judge-made doctrine requiring decision-makers to consider the “essence” of the charter when making decisions. In Peterson’s case, it is not his freedom of expression that is at stake as much as the “charter values” of diversity, equity, and inclusion.

But the deference to bureaucrats leaves Canadians—including Peterson—without true freedom of expression regarding which ideologies predominate in society.

We are all at a loss in this new reality.

There are too few “Petersons” with the means and courage to fight this societal Goliath. We lose the benefit of professional discourse on issues that matter.

We need the free speech of professionals so that we may benefit from their collective wisdom.

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Peterson has thrown down the gauntlet. He is not willing to back down.

He will go through the mandatory re-education process but has no intention of giving the regulatory college an easy ride, and will be keeping up his challenge.

This is a battle for the very soul of free speech in Canada. It is time to build resilience for what lies ahead.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 12:05

Cyberattack Hits US Defense Supplier Of Critical Chips, Impacting “Ability To Fulfill Orders”

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Cyberattack Hits US Defense Supplier Of Critical Chips, Impacting “Ability To Fulfill Orders”

US chipmaker Microchip Technology disclosed that an “unauthorized party” had compromised “certain servers and some business operations.” This cyberattack raises significant concerns due to Microchip’s critical role in supplying advanced chips to the US defense industry, supporting critical systems such as precision strike and missile defense weapons, radar systems, autonomous platforms, image processing, and command and control centers. 

Microchip first detected “potentially suspicious activity involving its information technology (“IT”) systems” on Saturday, the Chandler, Arizona-based company wrote in an SEC filing on Tuesday. 

“Upon detecting the issue, the Company began taking steps to assess, contain and remediate the potentially unauthorized activity,” Microchip said. 

Microchip admitted that some of its manufacturing facilities had to operate at reduced capacity because of the cyber incident:

As a result of the incident, certain of the Company’s Company’s manufacturing facilities are operating at less than normal levels, and the Company’s ability to fulfill orders is currently impacted. The company is working diligently to bring the affected portions of its IT systems back online, restore normal business operations and mitigate the impact of the incident.

Cyber blog BleepingComputer noted, “While the company has not yet disclosed the nature of the incident, the SEC filing suggests it was ransomware. However, no ransomware operation has claimed responsibility for the attack.”

The cyber incident comes as Washington is supercharging efforts to rebuild the nation’s chip manufacturing base to mitigate supply chain snarls from Asia. This incident is particularly alarming because if the country were locked in a major conflict directly with Russia and/or China, and a cyber incident brought down chip production for defense applications, it would have real consequences on the modern battlefield. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 11:45

Biden Approved Secret Nuclear War Strategy Focused On Simultaneous Conflicts

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Biden Approved Secret Nuclear War Strategy Focused On Simultaneous Conflicts

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Biden approved in March a new nuclear strategic plan that includes preparations for a simultaneous nuclear war with Russia, China, and North Korea, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The US nuclear strategy is updated about every four years or so and is highly classified. The Times described the new strategy as the “first to examine in detail whether the United States is prepared to respond to nuclear crises that break out simultaneously or sequentially, with a combination of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons.”

Via AP

US officials, including Pranay Vaddi, an arms control official on the National Security Council, have made public comments about the changes to the strategy.

Vaddi said in June that the new strategy emphasizes “the need to deter Russia, the [People’s Republic of China] and North Korea simultaneously.”

The strategy also focuses on China for the first time, as the Pentagon has claimed China could increase its nuclear stockpile to 1,500 by 2035. Current estimates put China’s arsenal at about 500.

China’s arsenal is still just a fraction of what the US and Russia possess. The State Department said in July that the US has 5,748 warheads, including 2,000 that are retired and awaiting dismantlement.

According to the Arms Control Association, Russia has 5,580 warheads, including 1,200 that are retired and awaiting dismantlement. Russia has 1,549 nuclear warheads that are deployed, and the US deploys 1,419.

The New START treaty between the US and Russia caps the deployment of warheads at 1,550. While the treaty has broken down due to tensions over the war in Ukraine, both sides have committed to staying within the deployment limits, but it’s unclear if they will once New START officially expires in 2026.

While China has significantly fewer warheads than the US and Russia, a nuclear exchange between the US and China could still be enough to end life as we know it.

Despite the risk of a US-China war quickly turning nuclear, US military officials are openly planning for a direct clash with Beijing and claim that the US could “win.” 

The nuclear strategy’s focus on China aligns with the Pentagon’s 2022 National Defense Strategy, which names Beijing as the top threat facing the US, with Russia coming in second.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 11:25

US Jobs Revised Down By 818,000 In Election Year Shocker, Second Worst Revision In US History

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US Jobs Revised Down By 818,000 In Election Year Shocker, Second Worst Revision In US History

Back in March, when most of Wall Street and economists still believed the lies spewed forth by the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics, which intentionally uses inaccurate, rushed “data” from the Establishment survey which is meant to pad sentiment and make the economy appear far stronger than it is for propaganda purposes (as one can see by the constant monthly downward revisions), we did an in-depth analysis looking at the actual, “uncooked” numbers published by the Philadelphia Fed preview of the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment revision, and warned our readers that actual US payrolls are overstated by at least 800,000.

Specifically, we concluded that “the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024)” and added that “it’s truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.”

Furthermore, we also noted that the revision “also means that far from the stellar 230K average monthly increase in payrolls in 2023, which the White House would spin time and again as direct evidence of the benefits of Bidenomics, the true average monthly payroll increase in 2023 was only 130K! The full monthly change in payrolls as originally reported by the BLS (in green) and the actual monthly number, as per the QCEW (in red) is shown below.”

This matters because as we reminded our followers this weekend, today at 10am, the BLS would publish its annual nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision where it would unveil as , which it did (with the usual 35 minute delay because that’s the kind of service $35 trillion in debt buys you), and it confirmed that we were right almost to the dot, because as the BLS unveiled in its CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, “the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent)” or just above the 800,000 was said to expect back in March.

The revision is mainly due to the highest-paying sectors: i.e., professional services -358k, leisure -150k, and manufacturing -115k. Not at all surprising: government was revised +1,000.

As an aside, while the data were scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. in Washington but didn’t appear on the BLS’s website for more than a half hour later. A spokesperson for the agency didn’t answer Bloomberg’s questions as to why the figures were delayed, but we have some pretty good guesses about the panic that gripped the BLS as they realized they needed a green lights from the propaganda ministry before going live with this number.

How big is the 818,000 revision in context? As the chart below shows, the 2024 revision was the biggest in the past decade, and the second biggest on record, with just the 824K downward revision in 2009 just (barely) greater.

The revisions confirm that – as we had been warning for much of the past year – the labor market started moderating much sooner than flawed conventional wisdom thought. It wasn’t until earlier this month that markets and economists grew concerned with the release of the July jobs report. That set off alarm bells with a weak pace of hiring and a fourth month of rising unemployment, but other metrics like jobless claims and vacancies have suggested a more moderate slowdown.

Putting it all together, we now know – as we reported first back in March – that the labor market is, and was, far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls would end up “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 218K jobs added on average every month but rather 150K, a 31% decline. Needless to say, the market would look very different if it had known that effectively all the payroll “beats” of the past year would be deleted!

Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics, or Kamalanomics, or whatever it is now, in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs. On the flip side, pretending that the US had added an additional 800,000 jobs in the past year is precisely what Biden, and now, Kamala would have wanted to generate the kind of buzz and momentum that somehow translates into the “greatest economy ever”… at least until it is all revised away as the admin’s lies finally wash away.

What is the implication for the market? Well, as UBS trader Leo He correctly notes, “the Fed is well aware of nonfarm payrolls (establishment survey) overstating the job market, but unemployment rate (household survey) underestimating the job market” and he goes on to quote Governor Bowman’s speech on Tuesday:

“There are also risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating, and it appears that the recent rise in unemployment may be exaggerating the degree of cooling in labor markets. The Q4 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) report suggests that job gains have been consistently overstated in the establishment survey since March of last year, while the household survey unemployment data have become less accurate as response rates have appreciably declined since the pandemic. The rise in the unemployment rate this year largely reflects weaker hiring, as job searchers entering the labor force are taking longer to find work, and layoffs remain low. It is also likely that some temporary factors contributed to the soft July employment report. The rise in the unemployment rate in July was largely accounted for by workers who are experiencing a temporary layoff and are more likely to be rehired in coming months. Hurricane Beryl also likely contributed to weaker job gains, as the number of workers not working due to bad weather increased significantly last month.”

At the end of the day, all this does is cement the Fed’s 25bps rate cut next month.

As for broader socio-political implications, back in March we concluded our article, which predicted today’s revision with near 100% accuracy, by warning that the staggering size of the revised data “is also why nobody in the mainstream media – which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state – will ever mention this report.”

Today it will be more difficult for the propaganda press to ignore it.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 11:16

Macy’s Plunges On “Sharp Cut” To Full-Year Forecast; Goldman Expects Consumer Weakness To Persist

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Macy’s Plunges On “Sharp Cut” To Full-Year Forecast; Goldman Expects Consumer Weakness To Persist

Department store chain Macy’s missed analysts’ estimates for its quarterly revenue and lowered its outlook for sales for the full year, citing “more discriminating consumer and heightened promotional environment relative to its prior expectations.” 

The department store operator said Wednesday in a statement that sales in the second quarter through Aug. 3 fell 3.8% to $4.9 billion, missing the Goldman Sachs consensus of $5.10/$5.06 billion. 

“In the second quarter, we began to see the customer become even more discerning,” CEO Tony Spring said in an interview, as quoted by Bloomberg. 

Spring continued, “We did not see any material change in our traffic. We did see a change in conversion, and that to us really means people were either distracted, or they were even more cautious than we had seen previously.”

A team of Goldman analysts led by Brooke Roach and Evan Dorschne wrote in a note to clients that their first take on Macy’s earnings was “Weaker comp trends and cautious revenue outlook overshadows better 2Q margin delivery.” 

Here’s the analysts’ detailed breakdown of second-quarter results: 

M reported F2Q24 EPS of $0.53, ahead of GS/FactSet consensus of $0.30 with the beat driven by better margins. Despite the beat, sales fell notably light of expectations in the quarter, with retail sales of $4.94bn well below GS/consensus at $5.10/$5.06bn, driven by a sequential slowdown in owned reported comps which decelerated to -4.0% vs. GS/FactSet consensus of -1.0%/-0.9%. This softer sales trend was offset by better profitability with gross margin as a % of retail sales at 40.5% (above GS/consensus 39.8%/40.1%), and SG&A as a percent of total sales at 38.7% (below GS/consensus at 38.8%/38.9%). Inventories were reported +6.0% Y/Y, compared to our expectation of +1.2% Y/Y.

After the weaker-than-expected quarter, attributed to a cautious consumer, Macy’s lowered its annual outlook on sales for the fiscal year to between $22.1 and $22.4 billion, compared with the previous forecast (as of May 31) of between $22.9 billion and $22.3 billion.

Goldman’s Roach and Dorschne added more color to the dismal outlook: 

On the forward outlook, M reaffirmed its FY EPS guidance of $2.55-$2.90, vs. GS/consensus at $2.85/$2.78. However, management took a much more cautious tone on the consumer, pointing to a more discriminating consumer and a heightened promotional environment vs. prior expectations. As a result, management now expects comps (owned + licensed) at -2.0% to -0.5% (vs. -1.0% to +1.5% prior), and net sales are now guided at $22.1bn-$22.4bn (vs. $22.3bn-$22.9bn prior), indicating -4.3% to -3.0% Y/Y declines (vs. -3.4% to -0.8% prior), which compares to GS/consensus at -1.2%/-2.4%. For 3Q, management expects EPS at -$0.04 to $0.01 vs. GS/consensus at $0.07/$0.01.

The analysts noted, “This is a disappointing result for Macy’s and a sharp cut to the company’s forecast for sales and comp trends for the full year.” 

CEO Spring warned in the interview that “it will be a more rocky remainder of the year” for the consumer. 

The retailer decided to increase product discounting to counter the slowdown in discretionary spending.

“We are leaning into every available expense stream” that doesn’t erode customers’ shopping experience, Spring said, adding, “We are trying to make sure that our cost of operations, our packaging, our delivery expense, our costs for paper and shopping bags” are decreasing. 

Goldman analysts concluded, “We are Buy rated on M. Our 12-month price target of $23 is based on 3.85x Q5-Q8 EV/EBITDA and includes a $1 per share contribution value from M’s real estate.” 

Shares of Macy’s are down more than 13% in the early US cash session…

…extending a multi-year trend lower…

Separately, Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations, yet issued a cautious note on the consumer and gave a mixed outlook because of uncertainty surrounding discretionary spending in the months ahead.

Goldamn’s consumer specialist, Scott Feiler, provided clients with commentary surrounding the latest and most important earnings from big box retailers, noting consumer weakness will still be a theme through year-end: 

The big debate post WMT’s beat and better than expected consumer commentary last week was whether they were just taking a lot of share, or if in fact they truly thought the consumer was stable. Post WMT’s huge comp beat and comment that general merchandise flipped positive, expectations for TGT’s comp moved from the +1% range to the +1.5% range. They hit the very high-end of the recent expectations (+2%) and importantly, beat margins by 90 bps, which they did not do last quarter. Is this an all clear in consumer? I would argue it is not, given that they are now talking to the low-end of the prior FY comp guide (probably some conservatism), despite this beat. However, it will certainly be good enough for TGT at this valuation and a little bit more of a relief for the space, even if not an all-clear (Macy’s revenue miss and cut this morning).

What’s clear with Home Depot and Lowe’s executives is that home improvement trends remain under pressure. McDonald’s and Disney have warned about waning consumer spending. And travel companies have warned about a slowdown. The theme building is that low/mid-tier consumers are under pressure in the era of failed Bidenomics.  

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 10:05