Summary

• Trump Hits Back, Seeks Narrative Control: “The war is going very well. As you know, we’re winning by a lot. Iran is making very big concessions.”
• Iran Declares MoU A US Defeat: Tehran says the Islamabad agreement proves Washington abandoned its pressure campaign.
• Hormuz Traffic Resumes under UN Auspices: About 72 ships carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil transited the strait in the past 24 hours under a UN-backed framework.
• Brent Falls Below $75, Iran war low: Oil prices dropped to their lowest level since the Iran conflict began, erasing much of the war risk premium.
• Trump, Tehran still at Odds despite MoU Signing, Switzerland Summit with Vance: Trump claims Iran agreed to “NO TOLLS” or shipping fees in Hormuz, while Iranian officials continue disputing key US claims.
• Despite these Contradictions, Fragile Calm Persists: Qatar is urging direct US-Iran communication as questions remain over inspections, sanctions relief, and the long-term durability of the deal.

*  *  *

Trump Hits Back: Iran Forced to Make ‘Very Big Concessions’

President Trump claimed Wednesday that Iran was offering significant concessions, stated within hours after Iran’s lead negotiator, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf told a Baku audience that Iran had secured ‘US defeat’…

“The war is going very well. As you know, we’re winning by a lot. Iran is making very big concessions,” Trump told reporters at the Capitol.

“We’ll see what happens — but it has been very, very, very powerful,” the US President added. Tehran has remained insistent it never agreed to allow nuclear inspector access, and that the Strait of Hormuz is opening on its terms.

Meanwhile, the latest on the Lebanon tenuous ceasefire and crisis:

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧The first day of the round of talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington ended yesterday without any progress and in a certain sense there was even a retreat, according to two sources briefed on the negotiations
🇺🇸🇱🇧🇮🇱One of the sources said that in some parts of the…

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 24, 2026

Tehran Provokes Trump: Deal to End War a ‘Declaration of US Defeat’

The post-war narrative battle between Washington and Tehran intensified Wednesday after Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf claimed the recently signed Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – and confirmed in Switzerland – amounted to nothing less than a US capitulation.

Speaking in Baku during a gathering of parliaments from member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Ghalibaf argued that the agreement validated Iran’s long-held position that negotiations only succeed when foreign powers abandon coercion and recognize the Islamic Republic’s rights.

“The Islamabad memorandum of understanding became a declaration of the US defeat,” Ghalibaf said.

The remarks underscore the widening disconnect between how Washington and Tehran are portraying the agreement. While the Trump administration has presented the MoU as evidence that its pressure campaign forced concessions from Iran, Iranian officials continue to frame the deal as proof that the United States ultimately backed away from attempts to dictate terms.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Wednesday that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding with Washington turned into “a declaration of US defeat.”
“The Islamabad memorandum of understanding became a declaration of the US defeat,” Ghalibaf said in Baku,… pic.twitter.com/HRUltq012R

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) June 24, 2026

Ghalibaf further suggested that the agreement demonstrated dialogue can only produce results when the opposing side ceases efforts to impose its will and instead accepts Iran’s sovereign rights. Iran has lately stated that it asserted its red lines through ‘action’.

Energy Secretary: 72 Ships Have Exited Strait in Last Day

Several vessels have already navigated the Strait of Hormuz utilizing a fresh evacuation framework established by the United Nations’ shipping agency, an official confirmed on Wednesday. More via newswires:

US Energy Secretary Wright says roughly 72 ships have exited Strait of Hormuz in last 24 hours.

“Ships have already begun to pass under the plan,” stated a spokesperson for the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO), though they opted not to disclose specific details regarding the transiting vessels.

According to the latest LSEG ship-tracking data Wednesday, at least two dry bulk carriers and one cargo vessel successfully crossed the strait under the new program within a 12-hour window.

An additional analysis of ship movements by Reuters, utilizing data from LSEG and MarineTraffic, indicated that at least 35 other commercial vessels – primarily dry bulk, cargo, and container ships – are gearing up to make the passage.

Brent Falls To Pre-War Levels

Brent crude oil prices fell below $75 a barrel late yesterday, marking the first time the global benchmark has traded under that level since the outbreak of the Trump-initiated Iran conflict.

The drop in crude prices could provide relief for consumers and businesses by easing pressure on fuel costs and inflation, a desired Washington outcome of the MoU signing – for which Trump has come under severe criticism from hawks at home. Speaking of escalating, we have another early morning Trump Truth Social statement, openly contradicting the consistent stated position of Tehran leaders.

Another Bombshell Trump Post Contradicting Iran’s Public Stance

Since the Switzerland high level talks led by Vance, there’s been a series of issues where Tehran and Washington have issued clearly contradictory statements. 

Trump says in the fresh statement that Iran informed the United States that there would be “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND” imposed on vessels traveling through the strategic waterway.

Trump as is typical criticized media reports that had suggested Iran could seek payments from ships using the route, calling such coverage “Fake News.” He added that if the information provided by Iran proved inaccurate, ongoing negotiations between the two sides would end “immediately.”

The president also denied reports that the United States had provided funds directly to Iran or released Iranian assets without conditions. “No money has been given to Iran, or released from their money to them, by the U.S.,” he said.

However, Trump stated that Washington plans to make some Iranian funds available for agricultural purchases. According to the president, the money would be used to buy US farm products, including “Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and more.” But Iranian leadership has vehemently rejected this narrative too.

“Food is desperately needed in Iran,” Trump said, adding that the purchases would be made “exclusively from the United States.”

Oil drops to Iran war lows on the Trump Truth social statement…

Qatar Pledges to Washington Will Hold a Firm Line on Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, and any disruption or additional costs imposed on vessels passing through the channel could have significant implications for global trade and oil markets. It is officially ‘open’ in the wake of the MoU signing – but the next few days and weeks will be telling.

Meanwhile, some new developments on the Hormuz opening front, and Qatar LNG:

Qatar’s prime minister said establishing a hotline between the US and Iran is essential to prevent rogue actors impeding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as he predicted that the Gulf state would resume normal liquefied natural gas production “within a few weeks”.  –FT

Trump is also asserting that Iran will allow IEAE inspectors in, something the Islamic Republic is also vehemently rejecting.

Just over two years ago, we first penned our views on “The Next AI Trade“, which looked beyond the hyperscalers and the data centers supporting the AI revolution, and instead focused on the energy and logistical needs that would be so very critical in allowing the US to dominate China in the existential race to first reach Artificial General Intelligence (which many have dubbed the next nuclear arms race due to its profound civilizational implications). It was here that we defined the “Power Up America” basket as the next AI trade. 

Yet as one can see in the chart below, after outperforming the AI Data center and the TMT AI baskets in 2024 and much of 2025, the Power Up America trade has lagged and clearly underperformed, as some investors have started to express doubt that the US would ever be able to “grow” into its massive AI computing needs… with dire consequences for record AI capex budgets, something the market has yet to grasp.

And unfortunately, with every passing day, the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim. 

That’s because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas write two months ago, “the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction.” He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation’s planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

That’s right: half.

This collapsing inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

Taking a step back, despite over $800BN of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, a number which seems to jump by $50bn or see every quarter,  nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US in 2026 “will either face delays or outright cancellations.” The data, which comes from Sightline Climate’s 2026 Data Center Outlook,  suggests that just 30% – 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!

And the horizon only grows darker in the coming years. By 2027, the gap between ambition and reality widens further, as a mere fraction of the announced 21.5 gigawatts has actually broken ground. Worse, according to Futurism, data centers slated to open in 2027 are progressing far more slowly than anticipated. “Only about 6.3 gigawatts worth of computing infrastructure are actually under construction, compared to 21.5 announced gigawatts.”

And then visibility drops to virtually nothing beyond 2028 as uncertainty increases materially in the outer years. According to the article, “things get even dodgier in the coming years, with the vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 having yet to even break ground. There are a further 37 gigawatts of planned infrastructure which haven’t even received a firm completion date, only 4.5 [gigawatts] of which have actually begun work.”

This trend suggests an increasingly uncertain future for the industry, where power constraints and grid instability cast long shadows over projects slated through 2032.

But while one can pretend the future is irrelevant, the same limitations are visible in the here and now: according to the SightLine report, “at least 16GW of data center capacity is slated to come online this year across 140 projects. 53% will be grid connected, 3% will be powered solely by on-site power, and 25% have not disclosed their powering strategies. We expect 30-50% of these projects to be delayed. Only 5GW is currently in construction.”

And the punchline:

“We expect 30-50% of 2026 projects to be delayed, driven by power constraints (25% of projects have not disclosed powering strategies), increasingly effective community opposition, and potential grid equipment shortages. 11GW of 2026 capacity remains in the announced stage with no signs of construction, despite typical build times of 12 to 18 months. Itʼs still possible for this capacity to come online, but it would need to dramatically accelerate.”

As noted above, the market had been stubbornly ignoring the physical limitations in the data center rollout… until last night, when recently IPOed chipmaker Cerebras reminded everyone of just how profound the data center limitations truly are. 

Cerebras shares plunged in early trading after the newly public chipmaker gave an annual sales forecast that disappointed investors who were expecting the company to carve out a bigger slice of the AI data center market.

Like other rivals of Nvidia, Cerebras is navigating high expectations from investors who’ve grown accustomed to the rapid revenue growth and profits tied to a worldwide buildout of AI data centers. Nvidia and a small group of chipmakers have regularly blown past Wall Street estimates, creating an environment in which even solid earnings results don’t necessarily translate into share-price gains.

And at first glance, Cerebras fell into that bucket: the company said that revenue in 2026 will be $855 million to $865 million, above the sellside analyst estimate of $824.8 million. First-quarter sales jumped 94% to $193.4 million, beating estimates of $181.4 million. The Sunnyvale, California-based company reported a net loss of $14 million in the period ended March 31, also beating the estimated loss of $58.6 million. Cerebras’ hardware business generated sales of $110.6 million. Cloud and other services reported $82.8 million.

The company reported earnings for the first time since raising $5.5 billion in May as part of the biggest initial public offering in chip industry history. Cerebras has carved a niche for itself in artificial intelligence infrastructure with novel technology built around a massive chip that it says is better at running large AI models and generating fast responses for users.

And yet despite the solid earnings, the stock was punished, tumbling 15% below $200 and the lowest price since it broke for trading at $311 in early May (but still above its IPO price of $185).

Why the disconnect? After all sales easily beat estimates and grew at an impressive rate.

The answer: margins. The chip designer warned that annual profit margins ‌would undershoot first-quarter figures. Cerebras forecast adjusted gross margins of 38% to 41% for 2026, compared with the 47% it reported ‌for the first quarter.

The ⁠projection is far below those of rivals such as Nvidia’s mid-70% range and Advanced Micro Devices’ mid-50%, even as it ⁠came above analysts’ estimates of 29.58%. 

To be sure, analysts had flagged that gross margins could be pressured by the company manufacturing relatively larger-sized chips, and as it rents back ​its own ​systems from an existing client to ​meet short-term demand while it ‌builds out more data center capacity.

But according to the CEO, the biggest challenge right now is not the chip size, but – going back to what we said at the beginning – getting enough data center space. As CEO Andrew Feldman said , “It’s a grand irony that after all this technology that we’ve invented, and Nvidia’s invented, buildings are the limiting factor,” he said in an interview before the results were released.

The scarcity of data center space is leading Cerebras to rent back some of its own systems from a customer and “aggressively” build out its own capacity, CFO Bob Komin said on a conference call after the report. It is these costs that will hurt margins by about 10 to 15 points this year, he said.(Adds premarket share move starting in first paragraph).

Which begs the question: where the hell are all the massive orders of GPUs and memory going if there are no data centers to hold them? 

We don’t know but, like Canaccord’s George Gianarikas, we admit “we’re a little spooked.”

In a note published earlier this month, the Canaccord strategist wrote that “At this moment, count us as hand-wringers. Panicans. Doomers. We have been writing a series of notes for ~2 years called “Something’s Got to Give” and “Glitch in the Matrix” where we voice our concerns about the speed at which the necessary energy infrastructure for AI is being constructed. Add in data center moratoria. And, financing concerns. Throw in a dash of loopy circularity. Not to mention, eery similarities to the telecom bust.”

And yet, Gianarikas goes on, “the happenings of the past few months have been fascinating, historic, and head-scratching. In the face of all that glitching, hyperscalers continue to up the ante – deploying increasingly massive capital to expand data center capacity. While structural inflation and rising component costs are playing their part, the underlying catalyst is simpler (at least to us): an insatiable demand for “more cowbell”, driving perhaps the most profound cycle of FOMO in human history.”

To be sure, this spending is very much showing up in earnings results. Look no further than semis or power-related deal announcements (e.g., Generac and Fluence) or elements of the industrial supply chain or revenue growth at some of the hyperscalers.

Or look at US GDP. As we noted a month ago when we pointed out that AI now accounts for 75% of US GDP growth, “there is a troublingly disproportionate reliance on AI spending to anchor economic progress.”

But – the Canaccord strategist asks – “what about the power? Can the power keep up with the build plans? We don’t think so. Channeling our inner Scotty from Star Trek: “I can’t do it, Captain! I don’t have the power!””

Even the Wall Street Journal has taken taking notice. In an article published last month, they said that “America’s Data Center Build-Out Is Falling Way Behind Schedule”. Yes. Yes, it is.

As Gianarikas concludes, “Though macro market mechanics sit outside our mandate, we cannot ignore the parabolic split between the AI-enablers and the AI-dislocated. It is a stark tale of haves and have-nots – and it leaves us with a haunting question: What happens if the lights don’t turn on?”

We got one answer from Cerebras. But the bigger problem is what happens if there is simply not enough data center capacity to light all the unlit components? And what will the returns be on those hundreds of billions in debt spent to fund the AI rollout? We 

ROI is not the right metric for AI. The right metric is what is the ROI assuming all the planned data centers are built and energized for the IRR period.

SPVs have made funding a non-issue (for now). But if components remain unlit, they are a $1 TN inventory paperweight

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 5, 2026

Understandably, Canaccord is asking precisely that question: “where is the capital actually going? It has to be landing somewhere. The reality, we suspect, is that mountains of expensive compute hardware are currently operating as high-tech paperweights. While the industry boasts of sky-high capacity utilization, a closer look causes that narrative to fray – at least to us. “Lit” capacity may be humming, but how much remains in the dark?” 

The answer from Cerebras is clear: “a lot“… and as more AI companies admit the unpleasant truth, expect a reckoning as the market finally asks the trillion dollar question. 

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Market operator Cboe Global Markets has entered the prediction markets business with the launch of Cboe Predicts, a platform debuting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500.

The contracts are now available through Interactive Brokers and are expected to launch at Charles Schwab and other retail brokerage platforms in the coming months, according to a Tuesday press release.

The contracts allow traders to take “yes” or “no” positions on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a specified price level.

Cboe is the latest traditional finance firm to expand into prediction markets as investor interest in outcome-based contracts grows. The launch comes days after reports that Charles Schwab was seeking to enter the sector through a partnership with Cboe that would offer customers similar S&P 500-linked contracts.

Contracts tied to the S&P 500’s daily closing price are already available on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Cboe launches XSP Binary Options in prediction markets offering. Source: Cboe

Traders seek more binary event contracts

Cboe’s customers are showing more demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading opportunities, which led to the debut of the prediction market offering, according to JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe. 

Cboe’s new contracts are security options that will trade within the same regulatory framework as US-listed options, providing “institutional-grade liquidity” and transparency, Cboe said.

Meanwhile, prediction market platforms have drawn increased regulatory scrutiny over political betting and sports-related event contracts.

Kentucky was the latest state to sue five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of “operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms,” as Cointelegraph reported on Thursday.

In January, US lawmakers proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials after a Polymarket user netted over $400,000 on a contract related to the removal of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fueling insider trading concerns.

With Case-Shiller reporting existing home price declines in half of America’s largest cities, New Home Sales were expected to rebound from April’s ugly decline.

But they didn’t… at all…

NAR reports that New Home Sales in May plunged 7.3% MoM (versus the 3.2% MoM rise expected). That print was below the lowest analysts forecast.

April’s 6.2% MoM plunge was revised up modestly to a 5.7% decline, all of which left new home sales down on a YoY basis…

Overall, new home sales have really gone nowhere for four years (but on the bright side, they are not as bad as existing- and pending-home-sales)…

It seems lower mortgage rates (admittedly having risen for the last month) did nothing to help move new home sales…

Finally, while existing home prices are lower, median new home price rose 2.0% MoM to $424,900, unchanged YoY…

Average and median new home prices continue to diverge as sales of ultra-expensive homes drag the average higher even as median price is dropping…

The biggest two-month jump in median new home prices in four years is more than offsetting any gains from lower mortgage rates. 

Gold plunged back below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025 this morning, as a resurgent dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates bring bullion’s three-year bull market to a halt (now down 30% from its January highs).

The precious metal has posted double-digit gains for each of the last three years, more than doubling in price as central banks, money managers and retail investors all piled into the trade.

That rally ran out of steam in late January, shortly after the precious metal hit an all-time-high near $5,600 an ounce.

Chief among the factors that weighed on bullion’s performance was the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

Higher energy prices have fueled inflation and increased the likelihood of rate hikes, making bullion less attractive relative to yield-bearing assets like Treasuries.

Additionally, during the early period of the war, Gold reserves were used as a ‘piggy bank’ by Emerging Market nations to fund the huge increase in costs to procure energy (and manage currency runs).

Although oil prices are now falling as the US and Iran are negotiate a permanent peace deal, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised markets with a hawkish tone at his first rate-setting meeting last week, putting more downward pressure on the metal.

“The primary driver behind gold’s recent decline has been a significant repricing of interest-rate expectations,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV wrote in a note Wednesday.

Additionally, the debasement trade, a strategy favoring assets such as gold and Bitcoin over currencies vulnerable to inflationary, fiscal and monetary excess, has been losing momentum since President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed.

Warsh’s statement that price stability is his overriding priority and his reputation as an inflation hawk have introduced doubts about the direction he would take, causing some investors to hedge their bets and leading to a decline in the debasement trade.

“Anyone who thinks that he is some kind of a stooge that’s been put in there to cut interest rates regardless of inflation is going to really, really be disappointed with Kevin Warsh,” said Gavyn Davies, co-founder and chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and a former chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

“He’s not that kind of chair.”

The debasement trade – broadly defined as a strategy favoring assets such as gold and Bitcoin over currencies vulnerable to inflationary, fiscal and monetary excess like the dollar – had been one of the defining market narratives of the past two years.

“If the Fed has got the hiking bias, it’s really hard to play the debasement card,” Meera Chandan, JPMorgan’s co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy, said in an interview.

In the US, surging government borrowing and inflation running above target for more than half a decade fueled concerns that the greenback’s purchasing power would erode.

“What people were worried about was the inflation target, the Fed’s credibility and its independence,” said Jonathan Owen, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.

“I think those concerns were largely put to rest.”

All of which has helped push the dollar up to its highest since May 2025 (around the Nov 2025 highs)

As Bloomberg’s Jack Ryan and Yihui Xie report, several major banks have cut their gold forecasts in the last week.

Though revised targets imply prices will gain from current levels, Wall Street analysts are markedly less bullish than before.

Goldman Sachs axed $500 from a forecast that now sees bullion ending the year at $4,900 an ounce, while Deutsche Bank AG cut its fourth-quarter estimate by 17%.

It seems that Specs have thrown in the towel on the barbarous relic…

As the gold price has caught down to ETF holdings.

As Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, continued sales from gold-backed ETFs showed that the usual support for the metal is “notably absent,”

Meanwhile in China, the metal’s onshore discount to Comex prices in New York suggests imports will not be a support for the market, the bank’s analysts said.

But Goldman noted that gold ETF holdings that have undershot their federal funds rate-implied level

Still, one bright spot for bullion is the continued strength of central-bank demand.

“The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand, and we expect this to be the case for some time to come,” Deutsche Bank wrote.

The monetary institutions added to their holdings at the fastest pace in more than a year in the first quarter, and survey data indicates they intend to buy more.
 

President Trump said on Wednesday that he had instructed the Department of Justice (DOJ) to open an investigation into oil companies over high gasoline prices.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said that oil companies have not lowered their prices at the pump despite a recent decline in crude prices following the U.S.–Iran preliminary agreement.

“Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged,’” he said.

“Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!”

Brent crude futures fell below $75 per barrel on Wednesday (back near pre-war levels), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped to $72.29, amid the resumption of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg’s energy guru, Javier Blas, remarked after President Trump’s post: 

“US President Trump, all political theatre, has just discovered the refining (and marketing) margin.”

The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.93 per gallon on June 23, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), down from $4.04 the previous week.

The gas price was $4.53 per gallon a month ago.

Of course, given the supply/refinery chain, it takes time (two weeks) for crude prices to ripple through to pump prices…

AAA said it observed that gas prices remain above the levels before the conflict with Iran erupted in February.

The national average price for regular gas was $2.98 on Feb. 28, the day when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, triggering the war.

“Getting prices back down to prewar levels will take longer because of the time it takes to resume shipping and production,” Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho, said in a statement.

As Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week to end the war. Under the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened, and Tehran would not procure or develop a nuclear weapon. The United States also agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told ABC News on June 21 that commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal levels, and that Americans should expect further declines in oil, gasoline, and other energy prices as traffic resumed.

“Flows of oil and natural gas through the straits have already returned to normal, and they will continue that way whatever happens with the negotiations with the Iranians,” he said.

Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, said on June 23 that more than 11,000 seafarers stranded in the region due to war would be evacuated under a coordinated effort with Iran, Oman, other coastal states in the region, the United States, and the maritime industry following the U.S.–Iran preliminary deal.

“We have secured the necessary safety guarantees and have thoroughly verified the conditions for safe navigation to support these operations,” Dominguez said in a statement.

Iran had previously blocked traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway through which a significant share of global oil and gas shipments passes—in response to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on its nuclear and military sites.

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun shifting American workers away from occupations most vulnerable to automation, but its overall effect on U.S. employment and wages still remains “muted,” according to a European Central Bank study released on Monday.

U.S. companies have been investing heavily in AI in recent years amid predictions that humans will be ​replaced at increasing rates.

According to the European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin article, certain workers, especially junior staff in highly exposed sectors, are starting to become more vulnerable to being replaced by AI.

“All ‌else being equal, between 2019 and 2025 jobs with a high substitution risk grew by around 15 percentage points ​less than jobs with a low substitution risk,” the report reads.

The ECB said that the U.S. economy has started to adjust to AI, and such effects are likely to have become visible earlier than in other major economies, given that it is home to some of the most advanced early-adopting companies and has a relatively flexible labor market.

Employment in jobs with ​a high risk of AI substitution, such as economists and graphic designers, declined on average by more than 4 percent between 2019 and 2025.

Employment in jobs with a low risk of AI substitution, like electricians or high school teachers, increased by 13 percent over the same period.

“The share of low-risk jobs in total US employment has increased from 23 percent to 25 percent, while the share of high-risk jobs has dropped from 35 percent to 33 percent,” the report reads.

“While AI’s potential to disrupt job markets could be significant, its effects on aggregate employment appear to be muted so far.”

The study also found that the relative impact of AI on job growth has “not yet translated into significant differences in wage growth.”

“Over time, ⁠as the labour market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative, income ​effects may be more pronounced,” it reads.

According to a Jan. 19 survey report from professional services company PwC, most CEOs worldwide have not yet seen financial returns from their organizations’ investments in artificial intelligence.

“More than half (56 percent) say their company has seen neither higher revenues nor lower costs from AI, while only one in eight (12 percent) report both of these positive impacts,” PwC said.

Less than one-third of CEOs said their companies achieved tangible results in the form of additional revenues from adopting AI over the past 12 months. Just about one-quarter said costs have decreased following AI implementation.

In an interview clip released in August, Geoffrey Hinton, the pioneering computer scientist known as the “godfather of AI,” warned that he was “fairly confident” AI would drive massive unemployment.

The bigger danger from artificial intelligence extends beyond the workplace, according to Hinton.

“The risk I’ve been warning about the most … is the risk that we’ll develop an AI that’s much smarter than us, and it will just take over,” he said.

“It won’t need us anymore.”

However, SpaceX’s trillionaire Elon Musk is bullish on AI.

In an interview with Forbes on May 19, Musk said that by 2031, he thinks that “digital intelligence will exceed the sum of all human intelligence.”

He also predicted that in five years, there may be “at least a 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”

In terms of both of the above’s impacts, he said the economy is probably “twice its current size in five, maybe six years.”

“Because you’re going to hit a doubling period … where the economic output is increasing so so fast […] plus minus a few years … we’ll see giant changes,” he said.

The British establishment has remained deeply adversarial to Russia even as across the pond President Trump has tried to improve bilateral relations with Moscow.

The UK was among the first nations to hand Kiev long-range missiles, especially the Storm Shadow (a Franco-British low-observable, long-range air-launched cruise missile) – and so Moscow doesn’t have high hopes for improving relations with London anytime soon.

This week’s huge news out of Britain – in the form of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, has been largely met with a shrug out of the Kremlin, which has said things regarding the UK stance on Ukraine remain unchanged.

But it was Russian Special Presidential Envoy Kirill Dmitriev’s comment on X which raised most eyebrows in Europe, as he openly celebrated the news. He wrote: 

“We did it. Starmer’s resignation unites us all,” echoing comments made earlier by US President Donald Trump.

“We did this jointly by exposing Starmer’s warmongering and consistently wrong policies on immigration, crime, energy and economy. He failed to protect Britain and was destroying Western civilization,” the top Russian negotiator and close Putin confidant wrote on X.

We did this jointly by exposing Starmer’s warmongering and consistently wrong policies on immigration, crime, energy and economy. He failed to protect Britain and was destroying Western civilisation.

Merz is next unless he changes policies. pic.twitter.com/iT2RGyzAkP

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) June 22, 2026

As for the much more ‘official’ Russian line, this was issued by Peskov…

“There are many questions about whether things could improve after him, but it is unlikely that anyone on Britain’s political scene will have a position on our bilateral relations that differs significantly from Keir Starmer’s,” Peskov said.

Indeed UK-Russia relations have deteriorated over a period spanning many UK leaders in rapid succession. After all, with Starmer’s resignation announce, the country will soon see its seventh PM within only a decade.

Peskov somewhat downplayed the issue of the resignation, while other Russian officials sounded closer to Dmitriev in their perspectives. Russian media reviews:

The criticism extended to Russia’s parliament, where Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov predicted Starmer would be gone by autumn, branding him “a destroyer of everything possible” who “only sets countries against each other” and “hinders any negotiation process.”

Speaking to RT on Monday, Nikolay Topornin, director of the Center for European Information and an international observer, said Starmer’s departure is unlikely to bring any major shift in British foreign policy.

“The British course to support Kiev, to punish Russia, and to provide military and financial support to Ukraine will remain unchanged,” he said.

Starmer’s stepping aside was directly catalyzed by last week’s by-election victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield. Burnham, the fiercely popular former Greater Manchester Mayor, has long loomed as the “King in the North” and the ultimate threat to Starmer’s sterile brand – according to many – of leadership. By securing a seat in the House of Commons, Burnham effectively checked Starmer into a corner.

Burnham is heavily favored as the UK’s next leader. From Russia’s perspective, this is likely to be a “same as the old” situation, as the UK’s entire defense/political/intelligence institutions are lock-step in anti-Russia policies and actions.

Authored by Aaron Wood via CoinTelegraph.com,

Amid waning poll numbers and pressure from inside the Labour Party, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stepped down. 

During Starmer’s tenure, the government introduced a moratorium on cryptocurrency donations to political campaigns, citing concerns that crypto could become a vector for foreign influence in UK elections. Beyond the ban, the UK has charted a cautious path on crypto regulation under the Labour government. 

Starmer’s departure from Number 10 has started discussions about his successor.

A frontrunner has emerged in Andy Burnham, a member of parliament for Makerfield and former Mayor of Greater Manchester. 

Burnham has expressed optimism about the blockchain industry’s ability to support economic development. But it remains to be seen whether that enthusiasm can translate into real policy moves.

Burnham wanted Manchester to be a “Web 3 powerhouse”

A graduate of Cambridge, Burnham served as a Cabinet minister under both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, both as Health Secretary and Culture Secretary. From 2010 to 2015, he served as Shadow Education Secretary and Shadow Health Secretary under Ed Miliband before unsuccessfully contesting the Labor leadership bid in 2015.

From 2015-2016, he was Shadow Home Secretary under Jeremy Corbyn before leaving Westminster to become Mayor of Manchester in 2017. 

As mayor, Burnham has consistently framed digital technology as an economic development tool and a way of driving growth and jobs in the city. This framing was evident at a Stand With Crypto and Manchester Blockchain Alliance event, where he said, “I’m bought in.”

He further noted his commitment to “make [Manchester] the Web3 powerhouse that we want it to be.”

Whether this will translate into a coherent national policy is another matter. As mayor, Burnham championed a model dubbed “Manchesterism,” which prioritized devolution, regional economic control and public-private partnerships.

It’s a bottom-up approach that, some observers in the crypto industry say, needs to be amplified if it’s to bring national-level change to the industry.

Nick Jones, founder and CEO of UK digital assets services platform Zumo, told Cointelegraph, “Burnham’s rhetoric on crypto has to date been heavily influenced by his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester. For example, he has previously drawn parallels between digital innovation and historical developments, pointing out that Manchester was the home of the Industrial Revolution and has the potential to become the home of the Web3 revolution.”

“But such soundbites were to be expected in the context of his role. If he becomes Prime Minister, he will be well aware of the need to amplify that ambition and ensure the UK as a whole sits at the heart of the world’s future financial system,” he said.

Benoit Marzouk, the CEO of GBP stablecoin tGBP, told Cointelegraph that Burnham’s Manchester experience “is not a handicap.” Rather, his experience outside Westminster, “could help implement and accelerate the right policies for the digital asset industry across the UK.”

Burnham has not yet published a detailed digital assets policy. His public comments about crypto reflect broader enthusiasm rather than specific regulatory commitments. He has not yet addressed the Financial Conduct Authority’s crypto framework, stablecoin law, or the crypto political donation ban on public record. 

The donation ban, politics, and what Burnham could actually do

In March, Stamer’s government banned crypto donations to political campaigns over concerns of foreign influence in British elections. 

The ban followed an independent review by Philip Rycroft, a former civil servant turned consultant, who found that the pseudonymous nature of crypto assets created unacceptable risks to political financing transparency.

Reversing a policy introduced on the recommendation of an independent review carries political risk. Labor’s left could scrutinize any move that appears to open the party to crypto money, which Reform UK has used to fund its leading performance in recent local elections.

According to Reuters, crypto donations from billionaires based overseas put Reform well ahead of Labour in the fundraising race. Reform’s leader Nigel Farage is under investigation for an undisclosed 5 million pound ($6.6 million) gift from British Thai-based businessman Christopher Harborne. 

Despite obvious ethics concerns, Farage said he should be able to spend the gift however he wishes, be it for campaigning, or on Ferraris and betting on horses.

Amid political concerns over the temporary moratorium, a 180-degree ban reversal from Burnham seems unlikely. 

Marzouk expects Burnham to exhibit “pragmatism rather than political announcements.” For tGBP, success in the first year of a Burnham premiership would include a finalized stablecoin framework, pilot programs involving government and GBP stablecoins and continuing work on tokenization.

Tom Rhodes, chief legal officer for UK stablecoin issuer Agant, told Cointelegraph, “We don’t expect the next PM to interfere with any specific policies. The regulators remain independent and cryptoasset regulation is nearly settled.”

Jones said that Burnham is “on record strongly backing the underlying economic potential of our nascent sector.”

“If he does become the next Prime Minister, it’s unlikely his position will change. I believe he would continue to pursue the current growth-focused policy approach.”

The transition period could be bumpy, stalling momentum, according to Jones. “Any potential cabinet reshuffle could displace ministers who are familiar with the evolving regulatory regime at the critical inflection point when regulators and industry alike are preparing for authorization, and that would be a problem.”

Labour is yet to announce an official timetable for replacing Starmer, although the former PM has said that he’d like to see nominations open on July 9, after a NATO summit. According to Sky News, it could be a week later, on July 16, when parliament goes on summer recess. 

The winner must receive more than half the votes cast. If no one receives the necessary votes, then ballots are recast based on preference. 

Via Remix News,

A public swimming pool in Germany has introduced strict new admission rules barring entry to anyone who cannot speak German, with management insisting the policy is essential to guarantee the safety of guests.

The Heidebad natural swimming pool in Halle, Saxony-Anhalt, now requires visitors to demonstrate German language skills before being allowed in. Managing Director Mathias Nobel defended the rule publicly, explaining that he is responsible for the safety of thousands of swimmers and will not compromise when it comes to protecting children and families.

The facility says that emergency alerts, water-depth warnings, and direct verbal instructions from lifeguards have repeatedly been ignored or misunderstood because of language barriers.

In one recent emergency, Nobel, while acting as a lifeguard, had to pull a young child out of deep water due to a language barrier. To reduce these risks, staff will now deny entry to any guest if they determine that essential safety communication cannot be reliably established, according to German media outlet MDR.

Pool management acknowledges that the rule has triggered considerable backlash, but says the public dissatisfaction is being “deliberately accepted in the interest of general safety.”

From the operators’ perspective, dealing with angry patrons is preferable “than an avoidable swimming accident.” The policy is already being actively enforced, and several would-be guests have been turned away at the gate.

The Heidebad is part of a wider trend of European public pools tightening entry requirements in response to regional migration shifts. Last year, an outdoor pool in Porrentruy, located in the Swiss municipality of Pruntrut, initially banned foreigners entirely due to violence, sexual harassment and constant disturbances. Swiss visitors to the pool and employees were generally happy about the move.

The ban came about after ‘French youths with a migration background’ continuously caused problems at the pool and in pool bathrooms, including the sexual harassment of young girls. The situation even sparked international headlines.

However, the Swiss paper 20 Minuten reported a surge in season ticket sales after the ban was put in place.

“It went very well. Citizens have rediscovered the bathing establishment with the peace and quiet that comes with it,” said Lionel Maître, the municipal councilor for tourism and leisure in Porrentruy.

“We have seen an increase in season ticket sales as citizens have finally regained the long-awaited sense of security. There have been no problems and no new bathing bans since then.”

The swimming pool has since changed its policy and now charges non-locals double ticket prices. The municipality has also added extra administrative steps for certain visitors. Anyone who is not a local resident and lacks a valid Swiss residence, work, or settlement permit must buy admission online in advance. Visitors without a recognized regional tourist card must also present valid identification at the entrance, and those who fail to do so are refused entry.

Mayor Philippe Eggertswyler publicly backed the new pricing and entry framework, stating that “It’s not about pitting Swiss and foreigners against each other, but about guaranteeing calm.”

The swimming pool may have backed down from its total ban on foreigners due to pressure from the federal government. The Federal Commission against Racism called the blanket exclusion “problematic and irritating.”

Read more here…