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Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply ‘Black Hole’

Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply ‘Black Hole’

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.

One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf’s largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.

It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world’s aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a “metaphorical point of no return,” where the “global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage,” even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.

The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.

Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients,Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide.”

Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 06:55

A Model For Europe? Switzerland Moves To Strengthen Country Against Foreign Property Owners And Migration

A Model For Europe? Switzerland Moves To Strengthen Country Against Foreign Property Owners And Migration

Via Remix News,

Foreign property owners will see their access to Swiss housing significantly reduced, as the Federal Council has decided to require authorization for their purchases. With foreigners accounting for more and more real estate transactions in the Western world, Switzerland’s tough measures may be a template for other nations.

The new measure aims to combat the housing shortage, especially as the population is set to vote in two months on the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) initiative “No 10 Million Swiss Francs,” reports Blick, based on a statement from the ATS Swiss Telegraphic Agency.

The Federal Council intends to require authorization for the purchase of primary residences by nationals of countries outside the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), it stated in a press release. If these owners relocate, they will have to resell their property within two years.

Foreign owners will also no longer be able to acquire commercial properties for the purpose of renting them out. The aim is to prevent purchases made solely for investment purposes. The purchase of shares in publicly traded residential real estate companies and units in real estate funds will also no longer be systematically permitted.

The government also plans to tighten regulations on holiday homes. The annual quotas that cantons have to authorize purchases by foreign owners will be reduced. Sales between foreign nationals will again require authorization. Any acquisition of holiday homes by non-Swiss buyers will reduce the cantonal quota by one unit.

“These proposals aim to refocus the Koller Law on its primary objective,” the Federal Council writes.

The draft bill is open for consultation until July 15.

This series of measures was decided in response to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP/UDC) initiative “No Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants.” The agrarian party wants to curb population growth by capping the resident population at 10 million.

The Swiss People’s Party (UDC) behind the proposal stated that rising immigration had resulted in “housing shortages and rising rents, traffic jams on the roads, crowded trains and buses, falling standards of schools, increasing violence and crime, electricity shortages, income stagnating per capita, ever-higher health insurance premiums, indebted social services, and increased pressure on the beauty of the landscape and the preservation of nature.”

If the new limit is exceeded, measures regarding asylum will have to be taken. And the free movement of persons agreement concluded with the EU could be terminated.

The Federal Council is clearly opposed to this text, which would jeopardize the agreements with Brussels reached at the end of 2024 after years of negotiations. The package still needs to be approved by the Swiss and European Parliaments. The Swiss people will then have their say.

With the amendment to the Lex Koller, “the Federal Council is closing a loophole in the stock market exploited by foreign investors,” the Socialist Party emphasized in a statement on Wednesday. According to the parliamentary group, this decision “sends a strong signal.” 

Filling this gap “is a long-awaited step forward for tenants and those wishing to acquire home ownership,” said the co-president of the Socialist Group, National Councillor Samuel Bendahan (VD), quoted in the press release. According to him, “foreign investors could easily enter the Swiss housing market via the stock exchange, circumventing the Lex Koller, without authorization or oversight.”

“It was high time to reverse the relaxations of the Lex Koller that have driven up prices, and thus rents, over the past few decades,” adds National Councillor Christian Dandrès (GE).

Across Europe, housing affordability has become a major issue. On one end, mass immigration has fueled tight housing markets, driving up housing prices and rent. At the same time, foreign investors are increasingly buying up more and more property, pricing out natives. In cities like Paris, foreigners own nearly 4 percent of residential housing stock. In other countries like Germany, foreigners buying up property is also an issue, but it is difficult to ascertain how much of the housing stock is owned by foreigners, as they often buy the property through a company registered in Germany and through numerous layers of shell companies.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 06:30

World’s First Six-Gen Bomber Completes Aerial Refueling Test Flight

World’s First Six-Gen Bomber Completes Aerial Refueling Test Flight

Northrop Grumman released new images of its B-21 Raider stealth bomber performing “more advanced stages of flight test” and “aerial refueling.”

Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider continues to demonstrate outstanding performance as the program moves into more advanced phases flight test, including aerial refueling. (Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force)

The B-21 is the world’s first sixth-generation aircraft and the “most advanced aircraft to take to the sky now has global reach,” according to Northrop.

The B-21 Raider conducts aerial refueling with a KC-135 Stratotanker, which is a key part to the Raider’s role in projecting power globally. (Photo Credit: Northrop Grumman)

The test campaign of the B-21 comes as Eurasia is on fire in multiple conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf area.

Northrop did not say when the B-21 conducted the test flight but our reporting from mid-March had a timeframe then and over the Mojave Desert.

Northrop listed ten fun facts about the B-21:

1. Sixth-Generation Stealth

The B-21 Raider leverages decades of innovation to deliver superior stealth with extended range. Its advanced, fuel-efficient engines integrated into a sleeker airframe reduce tanker support reliance more than any previous bomber, enhancing agility and persistence across missions. 

The B-21 has demonstrated outstanding stealth performance in testing, showcasing the effectiveness of its advanced low-observable design that will allow it to penetrate the most sophisticated air defenses undetected.  

Modernized, low-observable processes will also make the B-21 easier and less costly to maintain than prior systems, ensuring the fleet’s operational readiness for our nation’s most critical missions.

2. Built to Deliver Strategic Deterrence

The B-21 Raider is designed to hold any target at risk, anywhere in the world. With the ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads, it provides decision-makers with flexible, survivable response options across the full spectrum of conflict. The B-21’s open architecture will deliver seamless upgrades, enabling the Raider fleet to evolve its mission and weapons capabilities to outpace any threat.  

3. Mission-Driven Partnership

The development of the B-21 Raider is a testament to the results-focused collaboration between Northrop Grumman and the Air Force. Northrop Grumman’s partnership is built on transparency and a commitment to shared success, exemplified by an industry-first agreement that provides access to valuable data, including the B-21 digital twin, enhancing affordability and agility in upgrades. 

As a proven partner, Northrop Grumman delivers effective, data-driven solutions that meet the demands of critical missions. Together, the company and the Air Force are demonstrating the B-21’s capabilities against adversaries.

4. Strategically Investing

Committed to leading the way, Northrop Grumman consistently invests in the technologies and tools that empower the best fighting force in the world. To date, the company has invested more than $5 billion in the B-21 program’s digital and manufacturing infrastructure. Our investments in manufacturing capacity are accelerating production, providing flexibility to support future fleet growth and ensuring long-term U.S. Air Force strike dominance. 

These investments power our digital ecosystem, equipping the B-21 Raider with highly advanced software, manufacturing and engineering tools. As a result, software certification time has already been reduced by 50%, ensuring the B-21 stays at the speed of relevance for future technology insertion. The ecosystem also enables real-time validation of aircraft performance during tests.  

5. Delivering Results that Ensure America Wins

Northrop Grumman’s expertise in advanced aircraft systems is driving flight test results that showcase speed, efficiency and exceptional performance. 

Multiple B-21 Raider aircraft are currently in flight test, consistently exceeding expectations. Most sorties achieve “code one” status, indicating the aircraft returned from its flight without maintenance issues and is ready to go fly again. This reaffirms the quality of the design and build, and signals strong future operational performance. 

Simultaneously, Northrop Grumman engineers are conducting ground tests to ensure the B-21 can operate in the most extreme mission conditions. These test results consistently surpass digital modeling predictions, further validating the aircraft’s design and capabilities.

6. Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing

Northrop Grumman’s advanced manufacturing processes, including digital and augmented reality tools, enable technicians to visualize tasks and solve problems before ever touching the plane. This approach connects technicians to design engineers as never before, improving efficiency and cultivating expertise throughout the manufacturing workforce. 

Northrop Grumman has invested in manufacturing technology and capacity at our facilities across the U.S. to accelerate and scale production of the B-21 Raider. We are increasing production rates on capability that will project American power anywhere in the world.

7. More than a Bomber

As the world’s most advanced aircraft to take the skies, the B-21 Raider combines unmatched range, access and payload in a single system designed to perform specialized missions no other aircraft can accomplish. 

Instrumental in maintaining U.S. and allied security amid a complex global landscape, the B-21 is a key part of a powerful family of systems. It delivers a new era of capability and flexibility by seamlessly integrating data, sensors and weapons – enabling precision strikes and comprehensive situational awareness.

8. Ready on Day One

Northrop Grumman is developing comprehensive training, sustainment and fleet management tools for the Air Force as they prepare to operate and maintain the B-21 Raider. Leveraging extensive flight test data and decades of sustainment experience across a variety of systems, these tools ensure the B-21 enters service ready, affordable and sustainable at scale. 

Test pilots report exceptional handling during aerial refueling, noting a high degree of stability and control. These qualities reduce training requirements and enable faster refueling, increasing operational tempo and agility – further proving that the B-21 will deliver unmatched performance for U.S. Air Force operators.

9. American Made Deterrence

An all-American team of more than 8,000 industry and Air Force personnel are designing, building, testing and delivering on the promise of B-21. The team consists of more than 400 suppliers across 40 states. This is a nationwide effort to provide deterrence capability that strengthens and defends our nation.

10. Bold, Innovative, Courageous

The B-21 Raider is named in honor of the Doolittle Raid of World War II when 80 airmen, led by Lt. Col. James “Jimmy” Doolittle, and 16 B-25 Mitchell medium bombers set off on a mission that changed the course of World War II. The raid was a catalyst for a multitude of future progress in U.S. air superiority and serves as the inspiration behind the Raider name and the pioneering, innovative spirit instilled across the workforce bringing the B-21 to life.

Separate but related to the defense world, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is preparing to fire up the “war economy” by asking automakers to convert car production lines into weapons manufacturing. It’s a must-read report that can be found here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 05:45

Norway’s Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

Norway’s Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

Authored by Alex Komani via OilPrice.com,

Norway’s crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023.

As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023.

Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump:

Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social.

Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,he added.

North Sea oil and gas production is in long-term, structural decline, with over 90% of its producible resources already extracted.

However, Norway has been able to maintain high production by expanding exploration in the Arctic Barents Sea, pivoting to new, smaller discoveries in the North Sea, and investing heavily in the Norwegian Sea.

The Barents Sea is widely regarded as one of the most promising, yet under-explored, oil and gas frontiers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with roughly 80% of its remaining hydrocarbon resources yet to be tapped.

Meanwhile, the Norwegian Sea is an increasingly attractive area of interest, with roughly 50% of its remaining oil and gas resources yet to be discovered.

About one-third of the estimated resources in the Norwegian Sea are located in unopened areas, including off Lofoten and Vesterålen as well as around Jan Mayen.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 05:00

Gulf War Leaves $58 Billion Repair Bill And Global Equipment Crunch

Gulf War Leaves $58 Billion Repair Bill And Global Equipment Crunch

Last week, JPMorgan – which correctly noted that headlines tend to focus on the fact of damage not the scale – was the first itemize the damage from the war in Iran, finding more than 60 energy infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been affected by drone and missile strikes, with roughly 50 sustaining different degrees of damage. 

What about the actual dollar value of the inflicted damage?

According to Rystad, repair and restoration costs for energy-linked infrastructure as a result of war in the Middle East could hit $58 billion, with the total for oil and gas facilities potentially up to $50 billion. 

Three weeks after the energy consultancy published an initial estimate of $25 billion in repair costs across Gulf energy infrastructure, the scope of damage has expanded materially. The continuation of military strikes drove up the number of impacted assets across the region before largely subsiding following an 8 April ceasefire between the US and Iran. This pushed the estimate for the average in potential total repair and restoration spending to $46 billion – representing the midway point in the range of $34 billion to $58 billion – across oil and gas infrastructure, inclusive of an average of $5 billion across industrial, power and desalination assets. The ceasefire, combined with stalled negotiations and renewed escalation risk, continues to shape the operating environment, alongside risks of disruption and potential blockades affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Divergent recovery timelines 

This broader damage footprint is changing how the recovery will unfold. Capital availability is not the primary constraint; instead, access to equipment, contractors and logistics is emerging as the key limiting factor. Recovery timelines are beginning to diverge across assets and countries, reflecting differences in domestic execution capacity and supply chain access. At the same time, repair activity is likely to displace new project execution, as operators prioritize restoring existing production over advancing greenfield developments. 

Early recovery trends already reflect this divergence. Some facilities where damage was contained and contractor capacity was already present have resumed operations within weeks, particularly where work is limited to surface equipment and modular repairs. By contrast, facilities requiring reconstruction of core process units or that are dependent on long-lead equipment remain in early assessment stages, with timelines extending into years. 

Rystad Energy has assessed the damage across impacted energy-linked facilities and estimates total repair and restoration costs in the range of $34 billion to $58 billion. 

The lower end of the range assumes that, for facilities where the extent of damage is not yet fully clear, impacts are limited in scope, allowing for modular repairs supported by existing spare equipment and shorter procurement cycles. The upper end reflects scenarios where structural damage is confirmed across major facilities, requiring full replacement of critical systems, reliance on long-lead equipment and the inclusion of conflict-related premiums on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) execution, including contractor mobilization and war-risk insurance, alongside delays linked to contractor deployment, constrained logistics and in some cases restricted access to international supply chains.

Iran and Qatar bear brunt 

At a country level, this cost distribution begins to diverge more clearly, both in scale and across asset types. Iran accounts for the highest number of impacted facilities and the widest spread across asset types, with repair costs potentially reaching up to $19 billion under a high-damage scenario. Major disruptions are concentrated in the South Pars onshore gas processing facilities at Asaluyeh, along with the adjacent Pars Special Economic Energy Zone and Mahshahr petrochemical complex, removing significant gas processing and downstream petrochemical capacity. Additional impacts across key refineries, fuel storage depots in the Tehran region and export infrastructure at Lavan and Siri Island have further constrained domestic fuel distribution and reduced export flexibility, increasing reliance on fewer operational outlets. 

The impact in Iran therefore extends across the value chain, with simultaneous disruption to processing, refining, storage, and exports. Restoration timelines are structurally longer than elsewhere in the Gulf, not only due to the scale and dispersion of damage, but also because access to Western EPC contractors, original equipment manufacturers and process technologies remains restricted, narrowing execution options and extending procurement cycles. 

Qatar presents a different profile, where the impact is more concentrated but significantly deeper in terms of technical complexity. Damage is centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where multiple liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains have been affected alongside disruption at the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility. This is now intersecting with QatarEnergy’s ongoing North Field expansion program, including the latest award to a consortium led by Technip Energies, with contractors already active across multiple phases. 

With these projects already under execution or in early construction, there is a clear overlap between expansion work and repair activity within the same industrial cluster. Both draw on similar pools of engineering teams, fabrication yards and site crews, even if not always the same contractors. If some of this capacity is redirected towards repair activity, it could lead to delays of a few months in ongoing expansion projects, especially where timelines are already tight. The impact is more likely to show up as slower progress on execution rather than any formal change in project schedules. 

E&C takes largest share of costs 

Rystad Energy estimates facility repair and restoration costs for impacted oil and gas facilities could cost about $46 billion. At the facility level, engineering and construction accounts for the largest share of total expected outlay, followed by equipment and materials. This is consistent with the dominance of downstream and integrated assets in the damage profile, where repair activity involves rebuilding structural components, reinstating process units and re-integrating complex systems.

The sequencing of spending is equally important. Engineering and assessment activity progresses relatively quickly, but the overall timeline is largely governed by procurement and fabrication of critical equipment. While construction and installation can proceed in parallel once materials are available, delays in equipment delivery continue to define the critical path across most major assets. As a result, recovery timelines are less dependent on on-site execution and more on how quickly operators can secure access to constrained supply chains. 

What is emerging is less a reconstruction program and more a competition for access – access to equipment, contractors and logistics capacity. Those that move early will secure capacity and shorten timelines, while others may face delays that extend well beyond the physical scope of damage. The pace of recovery will therefore be defined less by the scale of impact and more by access to constrained supply chains. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 04:15

Germany’s Anti-Immigration AfD Party Jumps To 27%, 4 Points Ahead Of CDU

Germany’s Anti-Immigration AfD Party Jumps To 27%, 4 Points Ahead Of CDU

Via Remix News,

In a new poll from YouGov, the Alternative for Germany (AfD0 party jumped to 27 percent, now four points ahead of the rival Christian Democrats (CDU), in a sign that the AfD continues to distance itself as the most popular party in Germany.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel was quick to publish the poll results on X, writing:

“4 percentage points ahead of the Union, 4 out of 5 citizens dissatisfied with Merz: We no longer have time for undemocratic firewalls. The political turnaround must happen now.”

The governing parties that make up the federal government are seeing their fortunes quickly fall.

The CDU/CSU fell by three percentage points to 23 percent, which was the lowest figure measured by YouGov since December 2021.

The SPD figure is at 13 percent, which fell one point from 14 percent.

Meanwhile, the Greens and the Left each gained one point, jumping to 14 percent and 10 percent respectively.

According to the poll, more and more Germans are dissatisfied, totaling 79 percent, with the work of the federal government led by Friedrich Merz. In comparison, in June 2025, this value was only at 55 percent.

Most threatening for Merz, CDU voters are increasingly turning on his government, with only 34 percent saying they are satisfied, falling from 48 percent in March.

Other polls have shown AfD at the top, but with a narrower margin, averaging between 25 and 26 percent of the vote.

Despite the AfD leading, the CDU has vowed to never form a coalition with the party.

If the AfD’s values hold into the next national election, it may become increasingly difficult to form a coalition without the party’s support.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 03:30

Drone Attack On Russia’s Tuapse Oil Refinery Unleashes Fire So Large It Can Be Seen From Space

Drone Attack On Russia’s Tuapse Oil Refinery Unleashes Fire So Large It Can Be Seen From Space

Russia and Ukraine have continued trading blows on key oil and energy sites, with the latest being a drone attack targeting Russia’s Tuapse Oil refinery, which unleashed a fire so large it can be picked up by satellites in space.

The refinery is owned by Rosneft and has suffered major attack before, in a March 2025 Ukrainian operation. Local authorities have declared a state of emergency, after schools and residential buildings suffered damage, and all classes have been canceled.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, “NASA satellite imagery on Thursday showed a plume of smoke extending around 200 kilometers (125 miles) into the Black Sea from Tuapse, which is located 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of the resort city of Sochi.”

Krasnodar region Governor Venyamin Kondratyev confirmed that a woman and a teenage girl were killed in the attack on the northeastern Black Sea port town, with several more injured.

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the military had downed 207 drones overnight across multiple regions – listing off Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and the Krasnodar region, and the Black and Azov seas.

This is a somewhat ‘normal’ night in the now more than 4-year long brutal war. These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, however, given their frequency – to the point of being ‘routine’ (a grim reality).

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point.

The ongoing Russian aerial assault of Ukraine continues to be more deadly. Ukrainian officials say that overnight attacks there killed 14 people in the capital area as well as Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

At least 700 drones and missiles were launched by Moscow forces overnight, which is a significant and high figure, even after all these years of aerial bombardment.

Currently the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 02:45

Afghan Man Arrested For Series Of Rapes Of Goats And Sheep In France

Afghan Man Arrested For Series Of Rapes Of Goats And Sheep In France

Via Remix News,

A 19-year-old Afghan national has been arrested and charged following a series of brutal sexual attacks on goats and sheep in Pennes-Mirabeau, a municipality in Bouches-du-Rhône, near Marseille.

The suspect was taken into custody by the anti-crime brigade (BAC) on the night of April 9-10, 2026, after local sheep and goat owners alerted police.

Since early 2026, several owners had discovered their animals injured, with incidents reported in both February and March.

The animals had their legs tied and showed clear signs of rape, according to French newspaper La Provence.

After multiple similar episodes, the owners installed motion-sensor cameras on their properties in an attempt to identify the perpetrator.

The footage revealed the silhouette of a young man visiting their livestock at night, and the images were handed over to police, who were eventually able to identify a matching suspect.

The man appeared before a judge on Saturday, April 11, who ordered his placement in pre-trial detention. He was set to appear in court on Monday, April 13.

He faces up to three years in prison and a €45,000 fine for acts of cruelty toward domesticated animals.

The case has drawn the attention of the Animal Protection Association (SPA), which announced it would pursue civil action in the matter.

“[We] are going to take this barbarian to court,” the SPA declared.

“Thank you to the national police for their essential intervention.”

Previous cases

Last year in Germany, a shocking case has emerged from the beautiful town of Oberneufnach in Bavaria, which involved a 52-year-old Turkish asylum seeker allegedly breaking into a stable and sexually abusing ponies.

The man, who is from a refugee shelter in the nearby town of Anhofen, was arrested after he was caught on surveillance video.

The man broke into the horse farm at 6:45 p.m. while the family was having dinner. They heard the dog barking and then looked on surveillance monitors, where they saw the man in the stable with his pants down on top of one of the animals.

The boyfriend then ran to the stables to chase down the man, but he had already fled the scene. He continued his pursuit of the suspect though and eventually caught him. Police arrived and placed the man under arrest.

In 2023, a 27-year-old suspect was arrested after he was caught on a surveillance camera raping a pony at a stable south of Hamburg. The 18-year-old pony, which is named “Carrie,” was abused by the man at 1 a.m., with footage showing the man calmly walking onto the property and starting to attack the defenseless animal.

Steffi B. released the footage to German newspaper Bild, which posted stills of the perpetrator on its web publication.

The attack happened in Birkenmoor, which is in Harburg, just a few kilometers from the Hamburg city center.

Even the petting zoo at the park has not been safe. In 2017, a Syrian migrant raped a pony there in front of children.

“My babysitter was out with our son in Görlitzer Park. They witnessed the man sexually assault the pony,” one woman told Berliner Morgenpost at the time.

The babysitter took a photo of the man as he raped the pony and provided it to police. The migrant was banned from the petting zoo in response, but it is unclear if he was ever charged by police.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/17/2026 – 02:00

Mises, Rothbard, & Libertarian ‘Just War’ Theory In The 2026 Iran War

Mises, Rothbard, & Libertarian ‘Just War’ Theory In The 2026 Iran War

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

As of April 2026, the US and Israel are still at war with Iran. The war began on February 28 with surprise bombings that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials. Since then, attacks on infrastructure have continued, leading to significant disruptions in essential services and escalating tensions in the region. Iran has attacked targets in Gulf nations and tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz as a result.

The conflict has damaged the economy around the world, driving inflation and supply chain disruption fears.

The war is often considered a way to protect Israel, the Gulf nations, and, ultimately, the US against a brutal, theocratic dictatorship that was looking to build nuclear weapons and was the main financier of terrorism in the world.

However, there is a common libertarian question: Do libertarian ideas support sending troops to other countries to stop tyranny?

Ludwig von Mises, writing during the fight against Nazi Germany, supported quick military action.

In Omnipotent Government: The Rise of the Absolute State and Total War (1944), Mises stated that etatism, socialism, and autarky lead to absolute state control, which always leads to violence. Nazism was not an anomaly but the inevitable outcome of such policies, and compromise was unachievable.

Mises said Nazism was not only a German problem but also a threat to Western civilisations. The reader may observe strong parallels between the Iranian regime and its political and terrorist links to other totalitarian regimes, as well as its “death to America” and “annihilation of Israel” policies and its expansionist intentions toward Sunni nations.

Mises believed that if Nazism were not destroyed, the result would be total totalitarianism, reducing people to “slaves in a Nazi-run society” where the individual is rightless.

“The reality of Nazism faces everybody else with an alternative: they must smash Nazism or renounce their self-determination, i.e., their freedom and their very existence as human beings.” “If they yield, they will be slaves in a Nazi-dominated world.” Mises called on the Allies to “fight desperately until the Nazi power is completely broken.”

Mises was clearly against neutrality, saying, “In the current situation, neutrality is the same as supporting Nazism,” highlighting that a decisive victory or the ultimate defeat of Nazism were the only ways to bring back peace and liberal order.

People could only begin to construct a free society subsequent to “the total destruction of Nazism.”. We can argue that Mises believed that the government had a role in protecting civilisation from totalitarianism.

In 2026, a Mises follower would say that the Iranian regime’s theocratic totalitarianism, which includes spreading its influence and power globally, silencing dissent, fighting proxy wars, and looking for nuclear weapons to destroy Israel, is similar to Nazi etatism.

The free world might use strikes to destroy the Iranian regime’s military power and leadership in order to protect itself and avoid a larger war in the region or globally. If everyone had worked together to stop Hitler sooner, World War II might not have happened. Today, using strong force against Tehran could potentially stop a nuclear holocaust, Shiite terrorism, totalitarian expansion, or the massacre of Iranian civilian protesters.

However, Murray Rothbard disagreed with this rationale. He thought that all wars fought by the government were wrong, regardless of who they were against. Rothbard wrote about the non-aggression principle (NAP) in his articles “War, Peace, and the State” and in his bigger libertarian theory of conflict. Violence, he said, is acceptable solely for the protection of individuals from specific criminals, rather than against innocent individuals or through governmental coercion. “It is acceptable to use violence against criminals to protect one’s rights to life and property; however, it is completely unacceptable to infringe upon the rights of innocent individuals.”

Rothbard said that countries can’t fight just wars because they get their money through taxes and their military forces through conscription. He also reminded us that modern weapons are so deadly that they always kill civilians. Even a “defensive” war against tyranny gives the country that becomes involved more power at home. “War is the health of the state.” “True freedom from tyranny must come from the oppressed rising up against their oppressors, not from outside forces that only put a new ruler in place.” Rothbard would probably call U.S.-Israeli strikes “aggressive state expansion” in Iran, no matter how authoritarian the government was. He could argue that wars in the Middle East never seem to end to support his claim that foreign “liberation” always leads to more oppression at home.

There are important additional elements of debate.

The protests in Iran in 2025 and 2026 showed that it was almost impossible to obtain rid of the government from the inside, as evidenced by the government’s strong response to dissent and the lack of effective opposition movements that could challenge its authority. In late December 2025, protests about the economy quickly turned into calls for regime change all over the country. Security forces killed tens of thousands of people in January 2026. The government cut off the internet for the whole country, arrested over 50,000 citizens, tortured and made thousands disappear, and accelerated executions. This brutal suppression, one of the bloodiest crackdowns in modern history, may create doubts about Rothbard’s point. When a totalitarian regime has complete control over its security forces and is willing to kill its people, peaceful or even armed internal revolution becomes virtually impossible. If the regime has expansionary policies and finances terrorism and totalitarian regimes elsewhere, it may even be more problematic, as such actions can lead to increased international instability and the potential for external conflicts that distract from internal dissent.

This division of ideas exemplifies the fundamental libertarian just war theory.

The non-aggression principle (NAP) takes the old ideas of just war—just cause, right aim, last resort, proportionality, and discrimination and improves them. You can only attack people who are a real aggressive threat.

Both views may be relevant in the Iran war, and opinions may change depending on one’s personal perception of the threat posed by the Iranian regime.

Mises’ realism may be used to highlight the regime’s aggression, threats to Israel and America, and use of terrorism and proxy militias to justify strikes aiming at the lowest possible count of civilian casualties. Critics, following Rothbard, may say that the campaign goes against just war principles because it uses state force.

Is the Iran regime a global and national security threat or just another autocracy like so many others that exist in the world? The difference in perceptions about the war is likely to come down to this question. Consider whether you believe the actions of the Iran regime, both inside and outside the nation, pose a global threat or are irrelevant. I believe we can all agree that the Iranian regime has significant differences with other dictatorships. It is undeniable that the Iranian regime has a policy of annihilating Israel, states that “death to America is not a slogan but a policy,” and is involved in terrorist activities and the financing of dictatorships from Latin America to Lebanon. The question, then, is what actions should be taken in response? The answer will come down to each person’s view of the extent of the global threat that the Iranian regime supposes.

The war in Iran is sparking numerous debates among libertarians, demonstrating that libertarianism is not a cult that imposes unified thought. What matters, ultimately, is that independence of thought and free will remain as core principles of the debate.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 23:25

US Navy Destroyer Shows Off New Launcher For Mystery Weapons

US Navy Destroyer Shows Off New Launcher For Mystery Weapons

The U.S. Navy has quietly equipped one of its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with a previously unseen launcher, reflecting a broader effort to counter the growing threat posed by drones in contested maritime environments, according to TWZ.

USS Carl M. Launcher mounted on Levin (DDG 120) (U.S. Navy, VIRIN: 260329-M-FP389-1205)

A U.S. Marine Corps photograph released April 8, taken March 29 at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, shows the USS Carl M. Levin fitted with the system on its aft upper deck. The multi-cell launcher, positioned between the port-side torpedo tubes and the aft Mk 41 Vertical Launch System, was not visible in imagery of the ship as recently as December 2025, TWZ reported.

A Japanese-language defense blog first noted the addition on social media, prompting speculation that it may be designed for counter-unmanned aerial systems missions.

Similar launcher configurations appeared last year aboard the USS Bainbridge and USS Winston S. Churchill for Raytheon’s Coyote counter-drone interceptors, which have been used to engage low-cost aerial threats in the Red Sea and other regions, according to TWZ.

It remains unclear whether the system installed on the Levin is intended to deploy interceptors, loitering munitions, decoys or a combination of capabilities. Navy officials did not respond to requests for comment from TWZ.

The upgrade comes as President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports beginning April 13. The operation, launched after the collapse of weekend talks in Islamabad, is aimed at interdicting maritime traffic to and from Iran, including along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, in an effort to increase economic pressure on Tehran. The blockade, applied across vessels of all nations, has contributed to volatility in global oil markets, with prices rising above $100 a barrel.

In the first 24 hours of the blockade, under direction from U.S. Central Command, no vessels succeeded in breaching the cordon, according to the Pentagon. Six merchant ships complied with instructions from U.S. forces and turned back to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. More than 10,000 U.S. sailors, Marines and airmen, supported by more than a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, are involved in the operation.

Trump has warned Iranian military ships against interfering with the blockade.

“Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated – 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, ‘fast attack ships,’ because we did not consider them much of a threat,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 23:00