JD Vance is a marked man. After accepting the nomination for vice president, Vance has been the subject of endless media attacks. Recently, Vice President Kamala Harris even questioned his “loyalty” to the country despite his serving as a Marine in the Iraq War. Yet, one of the most chilling attacks came from Germany where the publishing house Ullstein Buchverlage has stopped printing the sold-out German translation of Hillbilly Elegy, his 2016 autobiography.
As we have discussed previously in this country, it is the modern left’s equivalent of book burning. After all, why burn books when you can simply prevent their being printed under blacklisting campaigns?
In this country, we have seen the left successfully force book bans for writers and even justices who espouse opposing viewpoints. We have seen actual calls for book burning recently (here and here).
Ullstein is facing a high demand for Vance’s best-selling book Hillbilly Elegy, but has refused to print more copies due to his political viewpoints (unrelated to the book).
First published in 2016 and made into a movie in 2020, the book returned to the top position on The New York Times‘ bestseller list after Trump chose Vance as his running mate.
Some in the United States are already balking at the selling of any book by Vance. Seven Stories Press wrote, “Seven Stories Press is extremely thrilled to have never published JD Vance.”
Ullstein published the German translation of Hillbilly Elegy in 2017 and held the rights to reprints.
The company cited Vance’s allegiance with Trump and his politics as the reason in a statement to German media:
“At the time of its publication, the book made a valuable contribution to understanding the drifting apart of US society…In the meantime, he is officially acting alongside him and advocating an aggressively demagogic, exclusionary policy.”
German author Gerd Buurmann posted a mocking response that we should be happy that Ullstein had just thrown Vance’s book out of its catalogue and not into the fire – a reference to the notorious Nazi book burnings of the 1930s.
Other Germans have raised the same objections and referenced the painful history of book bans and burnings in Germany under the Nazis.
German readers want to read the book, which Ullstein acknowledged is one of the most influential works of this generation. However, because the company disagrees with his political viewpoints, it moved to block others from reading the book.
We have seen similar campaigns leading to the banning or burning of books by figures like JK Rowling because of her opposition to some transgender policies. The left now protests any programs on Rowling’s work and opposes the selling of her enormously popular Harry Potter series or even video games based on the series. When authors have defended her right to be published, they have also been subjected to cancel campaigns.
Yet, Ullstein’s decision is particularly chilling as a publishing house. Again, we have seen editors at publishing houses sign petitions to bar books by conservative figures like Justice Amy Coney Barrett from being published.
In 1933, thousands of books by Jewish and leftist writers were burned throughout Germany. Publishing houses further banned the printing of these books. The books were announced as corrupting the minds of German citizens. Many books were banned or burned on the basis of the authors being Jewish or known socialists or anarchists.
Now the left has developed a taste for censorship and blacklisting. Editors and publishing houses are blacklisting those with conservative or libertarian views as forms of dangerous viewpoints or disinformation.
Ullstein will, of course, not stop people from reading the work of JD Vance. While it may make it more difficult for Germans to find copies, ideas like water have a way of finding their way out. Blacklisting and censorship have not succeeded in killing a single idea. What it does is reveal the true character and values of those who want to prevent others from hearing opposing viewpoints.
Lithium Battery Fire Sparks Traffic Mayhem Across California Desert
Some X users have described the traffic chaos near Baker, California, on the northbound lanes of I-15 as ‘carmageddon.’ This followed road closures on Friday that extended well into the weekend due to an overturned truck carrying lithium-ion batteries that ignited on fire.
As of early Sunday, the California Highway Patrol wrote on X, “I-15 N/B at Harvard Rd remains closed,” adding, “Crews are currently grading the dirt around the trailer housing the hazardous material. Heavy-duty equipment is on scene, and efforts to move the trailer will continue once deemed safe for the crews.”
Update:
I-15 N/B at Harvard Rd remains closed. Southbound open. Crews are currently grading the dirt around the trailer housing the hazardous material. Heavy duty equipment is on scene and efforts to move the trailer will continue once deemed safe for the crews. pic.twitter.com/nwom71QdxO
“A crisis situation is unfolding in the California desert. Thousands of people headed to Las Vegas have been stuck on the I-40 for many hours, running out of gas and water. This is all due to the lithium battery truck fire that closed down I-15 yesterday,” X user Las Vegas Locally wrote on X late Saturday afternoon.
A crisis situation is unfolding in the California desert. Thousands of people headed to Las Vegas have been stuck on the I-40 for many hours, running out of gas and water. This is all due to the lithium battery truck fire that closed down I-15 yesterday. pic.twitter.com/PnoQRzd4mX
— Las Vegas Locally 🌴 (@LasVegasLocally) July 27, 2024
Drivers caught in the massive traffic backup were furious.
Was in Las Vegas for a few days with my oldest son to celebrate the end of Summer Vacation.
Unfortunately on our way back we were caught up in the biggest traffic jam of my life.
Interstate 15 between Las Vegas and Southern California was closed due to a big rig accident and…
“A different sort of energy crisis, also caused by alternative energy (a lithium battery fire),” X user Josh Young wrote.
The dangers of the ‘green’ energy transition are not being disclosed to the American people by radical leftists in the White House. There is limited transparency and unaccountability.
Let’s not forget that lithium-ion batteries contain a lot of energy and can spontaneously enter into a ‘thermal runaway,‘ in other words…
Though caused by a traffic accident rather than occurring spontaneously, the latest battery fire in the California desert highlights a major issue: firefighting crews nationwide are unprepared for EV fires.
If you are still able to afford a decent home, you should consider yourself to be incredibly blessed, because vast numbers of Americans do not have a permanent place to live at this point. Homelessness in the United States is at the highest level ever recorded, and it has been growing at the fastest pace ever recorded. The homeless encampments that have been popping up all over our major cities have been making lots of headlines in recent years, but many of the homeless live and die in very isolated places far from public view. What I am about to share with you should deeply sadden all of us.
Way back in the woods in southwest Florida, trails that have been made out of discarded carpets lead to absolutely enormous homeless encampments where hordes of homeless people have made homes for themselves.
One man was able to find these infamous “carpet trails”, and he posted footage of them on his YouTube channel…
Coastal areas of southern Florida are very popular among the homeless because the nights never get too cold even during the winter.
But there are plenty of other hazards, and just trying to stay alive can be a real struggle.
Of course the west coast is dealing with an even greater crisis.
In Portland, homeless encampments have taken over vast stretches of the city and nobody seems to have any solutions.
KATU recently visited one of the most notorious homeless encampments, and they discovered that it has gotten even bigger since the last time they visited it…
This is what a collapsing society looks like.
Poverty and hunger are spreading like wildfire, and the deplorable conditions in many of our core urban areas are being openly mocked all over the globe.
The Chinese are now producing documentaries on the collapse of American cities. What this showcases is the grim aftermath of decades of deindustrialization, disastrous progressive policies, and an opioid crisis—ironically fueled by China.
“Chinese are making documentaries about ultra-extreme poverty and decaying cities since they don’t exist in China anymore,” X user S.L. Kanthan wrote in a recent post, accompanied by a short clip from the documentary highlighting the implosion of Oakland, California.
Since the video was narrated in Chinese, X user TranslateMom translated some of the captions, which said, “Everywhere is garbage … People don’t live in places. There are wanderers everywhere.”
One of the primary reasons why so many people are forced to live in the streets is because housing has become ridiculously unaffordable.
If you can believe it, there are now 237 U.S. cities where “buyers will find a price tag of $1 million or more on the typical starter home”…
A million-dollar price tag no longer means lavish and luxurious living. In more than 200 U.S. cities, buyers will find a price tag of $1 million or more on the typical starter home, a new Zillow® analysis finds.
The typical “starter home” — defined for this analysis as being among those in the lowest third of home values in a given region — is worth at least $1 million in 237 cities, the highest number of cities ever. Five years ago, there were only 84 such cities.
That is nuts!
Who can afford to pay a million bucks for a “starter home”?
This is what rampant inflation has done to us.
It has absolutely eviscerated our standard of living, and ordinary Americans such as you and I are feeling a tremendous amount of pain right now.
According to Zillow, California, New York and New Jersey are the states that have the most cities where a typical “starter home” costs at least a million dollars…
Exactly half of all states have at least one city with a typical starter home worth $1 million or more. There are 117 such cities in California, well ahead of New York (31) and New Jersey (21), which have the second- and third-highest numbers. Florida and Massachusetts round out the top five with 11 each.
Among metropolitan areas, the New York City metro, which includes parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, has the most cities with million-dollar starter homes at 48. The San Francisco metro has the next highest count at 44, followed by Los Angeles (35), San Jose (15), and Miami and Seattle, each with eight. Irvine, with a population of more than 300,000, is the biggest city with $1 million starter homes.
Of course California is also being overwhelmed by homeless encampments right now too.
Progressive policies have resulted in a chronic shortage of affordable housing, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.
Sadly, conditions are only going to get worse all over the nation because our economic momentum is rapidly taking us in the wrong direction.
A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments as they continue to battle high inflation and interest rates.
New data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows that credit card delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2024 rose to the highest level since 2012, when the Fed began tracking the data. All stages of credit card delinquency — 30, 60 and 90 days past due — rose during the first three months of the year.
And another major retailer just went bankrupt and is closing lots of stores…
Home goods retailer Conn’s HomePlus filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday and announced plans to close at least 70 locations across 13 states.
On its website, Conn’s says it will close 18 locations in Florida, nine in Texas and seven in Arizona. Other states that will see stores close include Virginia, Colorado, Mississippi and Oklahoma, among others.
Everywhere you look, there is suffering.
But for the moment, those at the very top of the economic food chain are still thriving.
In fact, the wealthiest one percent have actually gotten 42 trillion dollars wealthier during the past decade…
The world’s richest one percent increased their fortunes by a total of $42 trillion over the past decade, Oxfam said Thursday, ahead of a G20 summit in Brazil where taxing the super-rich tops the agenda.
Despite this windfall, taxes on the rich had plummeted to “historic lows”, the NGO added, warning of “obscene levels” of inequality with the rest of the world “left to scrap for crumbs”.
Trump Promises To Make USA The “Bitcoin Super-Power Of The World”; Democrats Panic U-Turn On Anti-Crypto Crusade
In a spirited keynote address, Former President Trump promised to make USA the “bitcoin super-power of the world,” ensuring that cryptocurrency is “mined, minted, and made in the USA.”
“We have to talk about Bitcoin. Our country is blessed with the extraordinary talent and genius in this room.
This spirit built America and will help us make it great again.
I admire what the Bitcoin community has achieved. In just 15 years, Bitcoin has gone from an idea to the 9th most valuable asset in the world.
It’s already bigger than ExxonMobil and soon it will surpass the market cap of silver.
That’s a big deal.”
He went on with some big promises:
“I pledge the day I take office the weaponization against Bitcoin ends.”
“On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC Chairman.”
“I will immediately shutdown Operation Chokepoint 2.0“
Trump also confirmed that he will appoint a crypto advisory council with “regulations written by industry-loving people within 100 days.”
Trump also confirmed that “there will never be a CBDC” while he is president.
“Those who say that bitcoin is a threat to the dollar have it exactly backwards, the danger to our financial future comes from Washington DC not crypto.”
Additionally, the former president pointing out that
“Bitcoiners understand inflation better than anyone. You all understood it first.”
Promising to ‘drill, baby, drill’, Trump notes that with low energy costs the USA will become the undisputed bitcoin mining center of the world.
Finally, Trump dropped the big guns:
“The policy of the Trump administration will be to keep 100% of all that it currently holds as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile,” and confirmed his promise to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to time-served.
🚨PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I WILL KEEP 100% OF ALL THE BITCOIN HELD BY THE UNITED STATES AS PART OF THE NATIONAL BITCOIN STRATEGIC STOCKPILE.” pic.twitter.com/fDNKvYe0uv
Watch the full keynote address at Bitcoin 2024 here:
Bitcoin price has risen significantly in the last 24 hours in anticipation of Trump’s speech…
Notably, the Democrats appear to be worried that crypto could be a vote-change for many people (and are pushing back against the Warren/Gensler attacks). A number of Democratic congressmembers have penned a letter to the DNC pushing for change…
Over 52 million Americans have embraced digital assets, seeing them as a means to democratize finance, spur innovation, and create new economic opportunities.
According to recent polls. 19% of voters have bought crypto, 19% self-identified as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 24% of crypto-owning voters are independents.
Data shows that digital assets are being adopted at higher rates among Gen Z, Black and Latino Americans, and immigrant communities key constituencies of the Democratic party compared to traditional financial products. These technologies are revolutionizing opportunities for these communities, reflecting their transformative potential.
From an electoral standpoint, crypto and blockchain technologies have an outsized impact in ensuring victories up and down the ballot. Crypto is at the top of voters’ minds in swing states, and a balanced approach to crypto that spurs innovation while protecting consumers is a net positive for policymakers and candidates.
Over 20% of voters in key battleground states identified crypto as a major issue in the 2024 election, and it is critical that our party presents a persuasive case to crypto voters while ensuring that consumers benefit from thoughtful and appropriate regulation.
The current financial system has left Americans behind.
According to recent surveys, 4 in 5 voters agree with the statement, “The current financial system favors elites over regular people.” Digital assets and blockchain technology are not merely financial instruments but represent a revolutionary shift that can enhance transparency, reduce fraud, and create a more inclusive financial system.
We believe this technology is non-partisan, and the Democratic Party should also champion these innovations to help reaffirm the U.S.’s position as the leader in the global digital economy.
They then make four suggestions that the DNC should back off the attacks on crypto:
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Democrats wrote to the DNC asking to shift away from the anti-#Bitcoin stance, responding to Trump speaking at the Bitcoin conference. pic.twitter.com/cgN4VhmKha
In the sixteen months since, we have seen a seismic shift in attitudes towards crypto from both Independents and Republicans; while Democrats continue to demonize the sovereign currency.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. praised the role Bitcoin could play in improving the US economy and the American way of life as he spoke to an audience at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 26. He promised to sign a number of executive orders on his first day in office to begin the process.
Kennedy would sign an order requiring the US Justice Department and US Marshalls to transfer the 204,000 Bitcoin held by the US to the Federal Reserve to be held as a “strategic asset,” he said.
Furthermore, Kennedy said he would also order the Treasury Department to purchase 500 Bitcoin daily until the reserve reaches at least four million BTC.
The United States would attain “a position of dominance no other country will be able to usurp” and its Bitcoin reserve would eventually reach a value of “hundreds of trillions of dollars,” he promised.
🚨Presidential Candidate RFK JR: “I will sign an executive order directing the US Treasury to purchase 550 Bitcoin daily until the US has built a reserve of at least 4,000,000 Bitcoins and a position of dominance that no other country will be able to usurp.” pic.twitter.com/u6JopH7yCu
In addition, CoinTelegraph’s Derek Andersen reports that Kennedy would order the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to treat all transactions between Bitcoin and the US dollar as nonreportable and nontaxable. He would also order the IRS to treat Bitcoin as eligible for exchange into real property under the 1031 Exchange program, which provides incentives for real estate investment.
“Transactional freedom [is] as important as freedom of expression in the 1st Amendment,” Kennedy said, and Bitcoin can provide that freedom and help restore the United States economy to its condition before President Richard Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard to fund the Vietnam war. Kennedy added:
“Fiat currency was invented to fund war. […] If the world was on a BTC standard, there would be no more war because you can’t print Bitcoin.”
“I understand that tomorrow President Trump may announce his plan to build a Bitcoin Fort Knox and authorize the US government to buy a million Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset,” Kennedy told the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on Friday, a day before Trump was scheduled to speak at the same event.
“And I applaud that announcement.”
However, most notable is the shift seen by former President Trump from his initial comments in 2019..
“I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated cryptoassets can facilitate unlawful behaviour, including drug trade and other illegal activity.”
Earlier this month, the Republican National Committee adopted an ambitious platform to promote innovation in the US’ digital assets industry and protect the rights of bitcoin holders.
For one, the official platform pledges that the Republicans will “defend the right to mine bitcoin.”
This represents a much-needed departure from the policies of the incumbent administration.
In February this year, the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued an “emergency” survey to bitcoin mining companies, demanding highly sensitive information such as the specifications of the machines being used, the specific locations of their mining operations, and contractual information relating to their commercial energy partners. The EIA not only demanded all of this information but pledged to publish even the most commercially sensitive bits of it.
This initiative represented an unprecedented intrusion into the activities of Bitcoin miners and a massive assault on the crypto industry. It prompted organizations such as the Texas Blockchain Council to launch legal proceedings to try and protect the rights of the crypto industry against federal outreach. The Republicans’ pledge to “defend the right to mine bitcoin” is therefore very welcome.
There are other encouraging pledges that the Republicans have made.
The GOP has said they will “ensure every American has the right to self-custody their digital assets and transact free from government surveillance and control.”
They have also come out strongly against the idea of a CBDC.
“Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency,” the party has said.
Of course, all of this is highly encouraging for digital asset industry advocates. But it still begs the question.
What caused President Trump to change his mind and start embracing the massive potential of digital assets and decentralized finance?
How has this pro-digital asset agenda vaulted into the limelight of Presidential politics?
If there is one man who has contributed more than anybody else to changing Republicans’ mind on crypto, it is Vivek Ramaswamy.
The former Republican presidential candidate and entrepreneur is clearly having increasing amounts of influence on the GOP inner circle. At the Republican Convention this month, Donald Trump Jr joked that he would like Ramaswamy to be his running mate in 2036. Indeed, ever since his presidential bid last year, it is clear that he has been one of the leading voices at the upper echelons of the Republicans guiding the party in a more pro-crypto direction.
Ramaswamy made waves in GOP circles when, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Texas last year, he released a detailed and comprehensive plan for the US crypto space.
What did he pledge to do? Perhaps the most eye-catching measure was his promise to fire most of the employees at the bloated Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and order the rest to stop trying to bully the crypto industry. Importantly, Ramaswamy defines many cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as commodities that are therefore not under the jurisdiction of the SEC.
“I think it’s nothing short of embarrassing that Gary Gensler, the current leader of the SEC, in front of Congress could not even say whether Ethereum counted as a regulated security or not,” Ramaswamy said during one of the Republican debates last year. “This is just another example of the administrative state gone too far.”
Ramaswamy has been a vocal advocate for innovation in the crypto space and the use of decentralized digital currencies as a tool for financial freedom. He has argued that the right to code should be a right protected by the First Amendment, protecting developers from the overreaches of federal agencies.
He has also said that consumers should have a right to possess self-hosted digital wallets beyond the grasp of the government. This has now been explicitly adopted by the Republicans for their 2024 election campaign, showing the practical influence Ramaswamy is having on Republican policy.
It is not just Ramaswamy who has been positively influencing Republican policy. Back in May last year, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, brought into force a law banning any potential CBDC being used in the state. The regulation “prohibits the use of a federally adopted CBDC by excluding it from the definition of money within Florida’s Uniform Commercial Code.”
Efforts like this have been essential in making the Republican leadership aware of the dangers associated with CBDCs and prompting them to pledge action.
But arguably the most important impactful of Ramaswamy’s crypto activism is to persuade the broader Republican Party that supporting crypto innovation is in line with their political philosophy and natural instincts.
He has powerfully argued that the current federal assault on the crypto industry is “an embodiment of our national decline” in the way it represents an attack on innovation and entrepreneurship, two values the Republicans have always claimed to hold dear.
Ramaswamy has similarly noted that Bitcoin mining is “a frontier in American innovation” in the same tradition as American heroes such as Thomas Jefferson – who Ramaswamy thinks “would have been a Bitcoin miner.” This rhetoric seems to have worked in convincing President Trump and Republican leaders that they should indeed be the pro-bitcoin party.
Another key emerging figure in the Republican party who is of a similar mind on digital assets as Vivek is Trump’s recent VP pick, J.D. Vance. Senator Vance is vocal about his support for bitcoin and digital assets and has a background in tech venture capital. He is young and he understands the importance of courting younger votes.
So, what will “four more years” of President Trump mean for the US digital asset industry?
Let’s end as we started, with another quote from the President – one that shows, thanks to the efforts of Vivek Ramaswamy, Senator Vance and others, just how much the Republican stance on crypto has changed over the last few years.
“I will end Joe Biden’s war on crypto. We will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of Bitcoin will be made in America.”
“If Trump is elected, the U.S. will have to add Bitcoin as a reserve, because it is digital gold,” said Arseniy Grusha, chief executive officer of data-center firm Dataprana, who attended the conference. “The earlier they do that, the better it will be for the United States.”
The massive wildfire raging in northern California, now America’s largest active blaze and the seventh-largest in the state’s history, has an official cause according to local officials: The Park Fire was ignited on Wednesday afternoon when a man pushed a flaming car down a hill into the dried brush in Chico’s Bidwell Park.
On July 25, 2024, NOAA’s JPSS Program satellites captured imagery of a smoke plume from the #ParkFire, located north of Sacramento, CA.
Images show a burn scar and intense heat, marked by yellow and red dots from the VIIRS Active Fire Product.
— Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) (@JPSSProgram) July 26, 2024
Since then, Park Fire has exploded in size, growing to more than 350,000 acres with only 12% contained as of early Sunday.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said the Park Fire is now number seven on the list of the state’s top ten Largest Wildfires.
“Extreme fire conditions continue to challenge firefighters as the blaze has now grown to over 350,000 acres. Every effort is being made to combat this devastating fire,” the state agency said.
— R. Scott Ernst, CPA, J.D. (@ScottErnstDSV) July 28, 2024
Cal Fire Incident Commander Billy See told reporters on Saturday morning the out-of-control wildfire had been “growing 5,000 acres an hour since the inception or the ignition of this incident started,” adding, “Okay, just to put that into perspective, we’re looking at almost 8 square miles an hour this thing is taking out. … It’s going to be another dynamic day.”
Local paper SFGate said there has been a “continuous stream of evacuations in Butte and Tehama counties, and more recently, Shasta County.” At least 4,400 people have been evacuated from unincorporated Butte County, and about 400 people have been evacuated in Chico.
“The entire town of Paradise has fallen under an evacuation warning. Paradise was devoured by the 153,336-acre Camp Fire in 2018; the devastating blaze destroyed more than 18,000 structures and killed 85 people,” SFGate noted.
Hartnett: The World’s Most Crowded Trades Are Getting Liquidated
While the move in the S&P over the past few days may not have been exactly brutal, for many traders last week has a distinct March 2020 feel to it, for one simple reason: every trade that had worked in the past year, suddenly hit a brick wall and cratered: everything from the Mag 7 (the most popular stock strategy), to the yen short (the most popular FX carry trade), to gold (the most popular anti-fiscal stupidity trade), to bitcoin, suddenly crashed and burned. Indeed, as BofA’s Michael Hartnett writes in his latest Flow Show note(available to pro subs in the usual place), the past 2 weeks have seen gold (an asset inflation play) tumble -8% in Japanese yen (an asset deflation play) as rates (Powell cuts) and politics (Trump wins) drove the liquidation of world’s most crowded trades (such as short yen, long copper, long AI).
And while many bulls have argued the correction was healthy, Hartnett warns that key levels that must hold are the following: yen (JPY) 152, copper (HG1) 9000, tech (NDX) 18700. Those same bulls will also say that as long as these levels hold, this will be just another dip-buying opportunity as some of the froth clears out; that’s because – as Hartnett wrote last week – investors had fully priced-in the bullish combo of Fed cut (100%), Trump victory (75%), and soft landing (68%)…
… and critically credit spreads – the “glue” for Wall St – have thus far been well-behaved… but this changes if IG CDX spreads (51bps) break above 60bps.
Meanwhile, the bears will counter that a steeper yield curve is recessionary…
… that bond vigilantes won’t allow Fed cuts to work (since US debt is up $2tn past 317 days to $35tn)…
… consumers are no longer willing to tolerate inflation (lower nominal GDP = lower not higher EPS)…
… commodity prices confirm global economy ill (China bond yields at all-time lows)…
… and we are one bad payroll away from cracking monopolistic/oligopolistic dominance.
Perhaps, but for now investors continue to flee cash and allocate to risky assets expecting the Fed to cut if not next week then definitely in September, and the latest weekly fund flows confirm it: according to EPFR data cited by Hartnett, the last week saw $22.2BN to equities, $16.1BN to bonds, $1.3BN to gold, $1.2BN to crypto… and $42.3BN out of cash, as investors start to frontrun the coming rate cuts.
And while cash saw its largest outflow in 3 months, the following inflows were especially notable:
Gold: biggest 2-week inflow since Mar’22 ($1.3bn this week – Chart 7);
IG bonds: 39th week of inflows ($8.8bn this week)
EM equities: largest inflow since Feb’24 ($11.1bn)
China: largest inflow since Feb’24 ($8.3bn)
Japan: largest inflow in 3 months ($4.1bn)
Yet while markets keep pressing continued risk-on trades, Hartnett won’t tired of doing just the opposite, and echoing what he has said for much of 2024, he remains bullish on bonds in the second half of 2024 as the contrarian reversals of the first half’s ABB “Anything But Bonds” trades continue to outperform, to wit:
“leverage” (REITs, small cap),
“value” (e.g. UK FTSE…the “anti-Nasdaq”),
“duration” (e.g. biotech);
… but the black swan – as Hartnett himself admits – is that the fiscal excess of 2020s can flip cyclical bond bull script.
That said, if the coming recession and spike in unemployment cause higher government bond yields as markets discount a fiscal policy panic to avert social & political unrest, e.g. politicians tell Fed to fund deficit and address AI-led unemployment via QE or yield curve control (AI = UBI = YCC), and Fed cuts in H2 and yields rise vs. fall, this will all be hugely bullish crypto/commodities, and hugely bearish US dollar.
Hartnett concludes his latest note by discussing the latest weekly political trends, where we have seen the probability of a Trump win drop to 64% (was 75% last week)…
… and of Harris win rising to 39% (was 28% Biden/Harris last week);
Still, the US President is elected by an electoral college (not popular vote) and the 2024 election will be determined by 7 “swing” states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (states that flipped between 2016/2020 elections or won by <3% margin in 2020). So some observations about the fundamentals on the ground: job growth in “Swing 7” states (1.5%) marginally lagging national data (US payrolls grew 1.7% in June); but note weaker job growth in critical “Rust Belt 3” of PA, MI, WI (payrolls up 1.2% in June)…
… driven by the manufacturing sector (focus of trade policy). The result is that manufacturing payrolls falling 0.5% YoY in “Rust Belt 3” states and falling 0.8% YoY in the “swing counties” in Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin.
And with the US election focus turning toward US manufacturing as Trump presses on with his favorite tariffs, this too is bearish for the US dollar.
In 2017, shortly before assuming the presidency, president-Elect Donald Trump asked Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he would be willing to investigate one of Trump’s top-of-mind concerns — the safety of vaccines. Trump’s goal, to have Kennedy chair a “Vaccine Safety and Scientific Integrity Commission,” was soon sidetracked by the Russiagate accusation and then Covid.
But it was not forgotten.
In a recent leaked videotaped discussion between Trump and Kennedy, Trump reminded Kennedy about their 2017 discussion and urged him to take on the vaccine issue again. “I would love you to do so,” Trump urged.
Trump’s preoccupation with vaccines — coming the very day after the assasination attempt on his life and shortly before his formal acceptance as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee — demonstrates that the government bureaucracies overseeing the vaccine industry remain top-of-mind to him.
“Something is wrong with that whole system,” he stated.
“When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is like 38 different vaccines and it looks like it’s meant for a horse, not a10-pound or a 20-pound baby… do you ever see the size of it, its massive, then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically. I’ve seen it too many times.”
In an attempt to clinch the deal, Trump pointedly referred to Kennedy’s long commitment to reforming the CDC and the vaccine industry, highlighting the personal satisfaction such an accomplishment would bring, and its importance to Kennedy’s legacy. “And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you.”
In their recent discussion, Trump and Kennedy didn’t discuss the specifics of what a renewed investigation of the vaccine industry would look like, but their 2017 discussion — an hour-long meeting held at Trump’s initiation that also included Kellyanne Conway and Mike Pence — raised the same issues that continue to preoccupy him today.
“He is troubled by questions of the links between certain vaccines and the epidemic of neurodevelopmental disorders including autism,”Kennedy told Science in a telephone interview at the time.
“And he has a number — he told me five — friends, he talked about each one of them, who has the same story of a child, a perfectly healthy child who went into a wellness visit around age 2, got a battery of vaccines, spiked a fever, and then developed a suite of deficits in the 3 months following the vaccine.
“He said that he understood that anecdote was not science, but said that if there’s enough anecdotal evidence… that we’d be arrogant to dismiss it. Those were his words.”
In their recent discussion, Kennedy didn’t agree to take Trump up on his offer. No formal, detailed offer was even made, the call was merely the beginning of a process that Trump hoped would lead Kennedy to join the future Trump administration in a vaccine-related capacity.
“When President Trump called me, I was taping with an in-house videographer. I should have ordered the videographer to stop recording immediately. I am mortified that this was posted. I apologize to the president,” Kennedy explained.
Following the leak, Kennedy told the press that he was continuing with his candidacy for president. Should his candidacy fail and Trump’s succeeds, as appears likely, look to negotiations between them to proceed for a vaccine-related role in Trump’s administration.
If Trump has a regret about his first term, it’s likely over his promotion of Covid vaccines — a policy that his base overwhelming opposes, so much so that it drew boos at his rallies. The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, with his decades-long record investigating vaccines and with his bestselling exposé of Fauci and the corruption of the public-health establishment, would loom large in Trump’s legacy as well as RFK Jr’s.
Italy Becomes First G-7 Country To Restore Ties With Assad
In a huge development, Italy has broken with its G-7 partners and become the first to restore full diplomatic relations with Syria.
President Bashar al-Assad and his government have long been under US and EU sanctions, having been accused of human rights abuses and war crimes by the West, which funded a decade-long jihadist insurgency in a failed attempt to topple the Syrian leader.
“Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, speaking in front of relevant parliamentary committees Thursday, announced Rome’s intention to re-establish diplomatic ties with Syria to prevent Russia from monopolizing diplomatic efforts in the Middle Eastern country,” Associated Press reports.
Italy has not had an ambassador in residence in Damascus in over a decade, like other Western countries. Again, this makes Italy under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni thefirst Group of Seven nation to formally return to the Syrian capital.
Its diplomatic staff initially withdrew from the embassy in Damascus in 2012. It suspended all relations in protest against the Assad government. But lately Italy has been among EU nations to have a change of heart, urging the bloc to reengage and take a more proactive stance on Syria. At this point a total of six EU embassies are active in Damascus.
Some Gulf countries, most notably the UAE and more recently Saudi Arabia, have also restored relations and returned their ambassadors.
Washington has meanwhile under multiple administrations tried to lobby foreign allies to stay the course in isolating Damascus and keeping up the sanctions, despite an occasional Iranian oil tanker offloading to Syria’s Mediterranean ports.
But the tide appears to be turning as a number of European countries, many in the EU and NATO, are increasingly acknowledging that Assad is ‘here to stay’ and thus they must work with Syria instead of warring against it.
A recent report in Israel’s YNet News says “Foreign ministers from Italy, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, Austria, the Czech Republic, Greece and Croatia have drafted a position paper calling for a change in the European Union’s approach to Syria, namely lifting sanctions and renewing diplomatic ties with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.”
“Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and his counterparts argue that the EU’s humanitarian aid policy has failed,” the report underscored.
BREAKING: 🇮🇹🇸🇾 Italy restores diplomatic ties with Syria
Italy became the first G7 nation to restore diplomatic ties with Syria on July 26, appointing Stefano Ravagnan as their new ambassador and ending a 12-year diplomatic break. pic.twitter.com/ZPdGTZgV5j
We explained earlier that longtime critics of the West’s drive for regime change have pointed out the years-long contradiction in policy: the EU allowed arms and ammo to be shipped into Syria (into the hands of anti-Assad jihadist insurgents), all while hand-wringing about the humanitarian and migrant crisis that resulted.
But increasingly these same powers are admitting that sanctions have only served to starve and compound the suffering for the common populace, and have in no way actually weakened the government’s grip on the country.
The Beijing Declaration cements the idea that global conflict resolution is now Made in China. But it also throws a wrench in US–Israeli efforts to manufacture a collaborator Palestinian government after the war in Gaza.
The Beijing Declaration, signed earlier this week, constitutes yet another stunning Chinese diplomatic coup, but the document goes far beyond affirming China’s pull.
The gathering of representatives of 14 Palestinian factions to commit to full reconciliation showed the entire world that the road to solving intractable geopolitical problems is no longer unilateral: it is multipolar, multi-nodal, and features BRICS/Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member China as an inescapable leader.
The concept of China as a peacemaking superpower is now so established that after the Iran–Saudi Arabia rapprochement and the signing of the Beijing Declaration, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba chose to tell his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing that Kiev is now finally ready to negotiate the end of the NATO–Russia proxy war in Ukraine.
Palestinians who came to Beijing were beaming. For Fatah Vice Chairman Mahmoud al-Aloul, “China is a light. China’s efforts are rare on the international stage.”
Hamas spokesman Hussam Badran said the Palestinian resistance movement accepted the Chinese invitation “with a positive spirit and patriotic responsibility.” All Palestinian factions have reached a consensus on “Palestinian demands to end the war,” adding that the “most important” part of the declaration is to form a government that builds Palestinian national consensus to “manage the affairs of the people of Gaza and the West Bank, oversee reconstruction, and create conditions for elections.”
The “three-step” Chinese proposal
Wang Yi cut to the chase: the Palestinian issue, says the Chinese foreign minister, is at the core of everything in West Asia. He emphasized that Beijing
… has never had any selfish interests in the Palestinian issue. China is one of the first countries to recognize the PLO [Palestine Liberation Organization] and the State of Palestine and has always firmly supported the Palestinian people in restoring their legitimate national rights. What we value is morality and what we advocate is justice.
What Wang did not say – and didn’t need to – is that this position is the overwhelming BRICS+ position, shared by the Global Majority, including, crucially, all Muslim countries.
It’s all in a name – everyone in the foreseeable future will note this is the “Beijing” declaration unequivocally supporting One Palestine.
No wonder all political factions had to rise to the occasion, committing to support an independent Palestinian government with executive powers over Gaza and the occupied West Bank. But there’s a catch: this will take place immediately after the war, which the regime in Tel Aviv wants to prolong indefinitely.
What Wang Yi left somewhat implicit is that China’s consistent historical position supporting Palestine may be a decisive factor in helping future Palestinian governance institutions. Beijing is proposing three steps to get there:
First, a “comprehensive, lasting and sustainable” ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible, and “access to humanitarian aid and rescue on the ground.”
Second, “joint efforts” – assuming western involvement – toward “post-conflict governance of Gaza under the principle of ‘Palestinians governing Palestine.’” An urgent priority is restarting reconstruction “as soon as possible.” Beijing stresses that “the international community needs to support Palestinian factions in establishing an interim national consensus government and realize effective management of Gaza and the West Bank.”
Third, help Palestine “to become a full member state of the UN” and implement the two-state solution. Beijing maintains that “it is important to support the convening of a broad-based, more authoritative, and more effective international peace conference to work out a timetable and road map for the two-state solution.”
For all the lofty aims, especially when it is patently clear that Israel has de facto buried the two-state solution – as witnessed in the Knesset’s recent vote to reject any Palestinian state – at least China is directly proposing what the Global Majority unanimously considers as a fair outcome.
Also important to note is the presence of diplomats from China’s fellow BRICS members Russia, South Africa, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, alongside diplomats from Algeria, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkiye at the signing of the declaration.
Genocide as a wellness treatment
Now compare China’s diplomatic coup with the US Congress giving 58 standing ovations to Israel’s psychopath-in-chief peddling the notion of genocide as a wellness treatment.
Bibi Netanyahu’s hero’s welcome in Washington takes the notion of collective psychopathology to new heights. And yet complicity in the Gaza genocide is not exactly an exception to the rule when it comes to American political leadership.
The Hegemon’s political “elites” – with Franco-British help – have also been active collaborators and weaponizers of the oppressive Saudi and Emirati bombing and blockade of Yemen, which, over nine years, collectively caused even more civilian deaths than in Gaza. Famine in Yemen is far from over, yet this has been a completely invisible war to the collective west.
At least karma ended up intervening. China promoted the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Riyadh has become a BRICS+ member and deeply engaged in the de-dollarization drive, in which the petroyuan is emerging.
Moreover, the Yemeni resistance movement Ansarallah managed to single-handedly humiliate the US Navy. The US–UK “revenge” was to open another war front, bombing Yemeni installations to protect Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and waterways beyond.
As much as Yemen remains at war on two fronts – against the Hegemon and Israel while keeping an eye on potential Saudi shenanigans – Palestine continues to be decimated by a fully US-backed Israel. The Beijing Declaration will not mean anything if not implemented. But how?
Assuming a partial success, the declaration may be able to put a spanner in the works of the absolute impunity of the Tel Aviv–Washington agenda because after the Beijing deal, finding a collaborator Palestine government to perpetuate the occupation could be much more difficult.
All Palestinian factions now owe China a serious debt; internal squabbling will have to cease. Otherwise, it would amount to a serious loss of face for Beijing.
At the same time, the Chinese leadership seems very much aware that this bet is a Global South bet – laying bare the Hegemon’s hypocrisy for the whole world to see. Much like the Saudi–Iran deal clinched in Beijing, the optics could not be more auspicious, especially when compared to the Israeli–American refusal of a meaningful ceasefire.
Real Palestine unity will also give extra bite to each and every global initiative at the UN, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and other global forums.
All of the above, though, pales in comparison to the dire facts on the ground. The ideologically genocidal Israelis – fully supported by US political “leadership” – continue to get away with what they really want: the outright mass murder-cum-ethnic cleansing of millions of Palestinians, something that, in theory, should lead to an absolute demographic majority for Israel’s expansion into all Palestinian lands.
This tragedy will not stop anytime soon. The Beijing Declaration won’t make it stop. Only the Hegemon severing its weapons funnel to Tel Aviv can force it to stop. Yet today, what we’re instead seeing from Washington is 58 standing ovations for genocide.
* * *
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle or ZeroHedge.
In the hundred years between 1900–2000, Africa’s Muslim and Christian populations grew 20x and 70x respectively. A large part of this staggering increase was simply population growth.
But the percentage of followers of the respective religions grew as well. Now, one in three Africans is a Muslim, one in two a Christian, and only one in 10 a follower of a traditional faith.
At a glance, Northern Africa is heavily Muslim, and sub-Saharan Africa heavily Christian.
Country
Largest Religious Group
% of Population
🇳🇦 Namibia
Christian
97
🇨🇬 Congo
Christian
96
🇿🇲 Zambia
Christian
96
🇱🇸 Lesotho
Christian
95
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea
Christian
93
🇷🇼 Rwanda
Christian
92
🇸🇿 Eswatini
Christian
90
🇨🇫 Central African Republic
Christian
89
🇨🇩 DRC
Christian
87
🇧🇮 Burundi
Christian
86
🇰🇪 Kenya
Christian
86
🇱🇷 Liberia
Christian
86
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
Christian
86
🇲🇬 Madagascar
Christian
85
🇨🇻 Cape Verde
Christian
84
🇸🇨 Seychelles
Christian
82
🇺🇬 Uganda
Christian
82
🇿🇦 South Africa
Christian
81
🇬🇦 Gabon
Christian
80
🇦🇴 Angola
Christian
79
🇧🇼 Botswana
Christian
79
🇲🇼 Malawi
Christian
77
🇪🇹 Ethiopia
Christian
73
🇸🇹 São Tomé & Príncipe
Christian
72
🇬🇭 Ghana
Christian
71
🇨🇲 Cameroon
Christian
69
🇹🇿 Tanzania
Christian
63
🇲🇿 Mozambique
Christian
62
🇸🇸 South Sudan
Christian
61
🇧🇯 Benin
Christian
49
🇹🇬 Togo
Christian
42
🇪🇷 Eritrea*
Christian/Muslim
49
🇲🇺 Mauritius
Hindu
49
🇩🇿 Algeria
Muslim
99
🇲🇷 Mauritania
Muslim
99
🇲🇦 Morocco
Muslim
99
🇸🇴 Somalia
Muslim
99
🇹🇳 Tunisia
Muslim
99
🇰🇲 Comoros
Muslim
98
🇳🇪 Niger
Muslim
98
🇬🇲 The Gambia
Muslim
97
🇱🇾 Libya
Muslim
97
🇸🇳 Senegal
Muslim
97
🇩🇯 Djibouti
Muslim
94
🇲🇱 Mali
Muslim
94
🇸🇩 Sudan
Muslim
91
🇪🇬 Egypt
Muslim
90
🇬🇳 Guinea
Muslim
85
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone
Muslim
77
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso
Muslim
64
🇹🇩 Chad
Muslim
52
🇳🇬 Nigeria
Muslim
50
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau
Muslim
46
🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire
Muslim
43
Note: Inclusive of all denominations and sects. *Estimates vary on which is the largest religious group. Data unavailable for Western Sahara.
In the 7th century AD, the Umayyad and Abbasid caliphates spread Islam through their conquests along the northern edge of Africa.
Meanwhile, Christianity had already spread to the continent in the first century AD. However, 15th century European colonial missions took the religion into sub-Saharan Africa.
Noticeably, countries in the middle of the continent tend to have large populations of both, with one group holding a slim majority. For example, Nigeria is only about 50% Muslim. However, this translates into the the highest number of Muslims in a country in absolute terms, at 115 million.
Mauritius is the only African country with a Hindu majority—a religion brought by indentured Indian labor for French and British colonial plantations.
Interestingly, Eritrea may be an even split, though depending on the estimate, either side may hold the majority. These religious demographics also played a part in the country’s previous civil wars.
