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Warsh’s Mark Antony Moment

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Warsh’s Mark Antony Moment

Submitted by Peter Tchir, Academy Securities — Macro Strategy

Warsh’s Mark Antony Moment

I really wanted to go with Warsh is “puttin’ on the foil” as the title for our Jackson Hole preview, but I’m told the Hanson Brothers might not be as iconic as I thought. In any case, of all my failings as a parent, getting my kids to finally watch Slapshot is one of the easier ones to correct. I felt the “vibe” of Warsh “puttin’ on the foil” in the green room as he gets ready to speak to the Jackson Hole crowd was good, but today we’ll go a little more “highbrow.”

Friends, economists, central bankers, lend me your ears;
I come to bury inflation, not to praise it.

As you know we have been on the side of No Cuts:

  • We discussed this along with the danger of Cheap Chinese Compute on Thursday on CNBC.
  • On Friday, we discussed Iran, ProSec, and the Fed on Bloomberg TV (starts at the 2:19:40 mark, with Lisa giving her best Seinfeld impersonation of No Hikes For You (last weekend’s T-Report)). The segment before discusses why the Fed is still going to hike 75 bps, so the combination of the two segments makes for some interesting viewing.
  • The Path to a September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation). Restarting the conflict in Iran has not been good for this timeline, and the data task force is likely to take longer to come back with recommendations than I’d like, but the points, I believe, are still valid.

Arguing about what data the Fed uses and how they interpret the data is not new for the T-Report:

The role of a strategist is to determine what is likely to happen, not what one wants to happen. This report may skew a little to the “want” rather than “expect” side of the equation, but sometimes it is healthy to vent (and possibly influence policy).

The Warsh Reaction Function is Clear

Okay, that is probably an overstatement, but I think worrying about the reaction function is missing the main point. The main point is to figure out what data Warsh is going to react to. The “reaction function” consists of two parts:

  • The data that feeds into the equation.
  • The equation that processes the data to get an answer.

Why do so many people still think PCE or some other data point (that has likely led to bad policy decisions in the past) is what Warsh will use? I suspect his “reaction function” will be more or less “normal,” but what will be unusual is what data he uses to input into that function.

That is a key premise to my view on how he should attack his Jackson Hole Speech.

The Speech I Would Give

This is definitely a mix of what I’d say, what he may say, with a bit too much Shakespeare to keep the report aligned with the title. Mark Antony’s speech starts with one thing and ends with pretty much the exact opposite, which hopefully I’m able to replicate here (and I was tempted to put on the foil to help write this).

Friends, economists, central bankers, lend me your ears;
I come to bury inflation, not to praise it.

Inflation is Bad, But…

Step 1 — Argue inflation is bad, but it is at least a little unclear that this is always true, or if there is some scientific method to determine what level of inflation is bad.

Is inflation bad? Yes, some level of inflation, historically, has hurt a segment of the population. Do we know that exact level? No. Well, some say 2%, but why not 0%? Why not 4%? 2% seems like an awfully convenient round number. If we had rigorous scientific backing it would be one thing, but unlike “hard sciences” much of what we do in economics is conjecture. [Step 1a — inflation is bad, but how do we know 2% is the “right” target?]

Is inflation bad? Yes, but don’t we need to look at income growth as well? Inflation erodes purchasing power, but if wages are rising at or near the pace of inflation, should we be that concerned? If we had 4% wage growth, 1% real yields, and inflation running at 3%, should we try to stop it? Nominal is important but real numbers are important too. [Step 1b — inflation may be bad, but it needs to be thought of in an overall context.]

Is inflation bad? Yes, and Powell was an honorable man, but…

We’ve all agreed that inflation is bad, but yet, my honorable predecessor left rates unchanged even as inflation soared. Did this inflation in 2021 not seem bad? Surely the Fed must have been afraid of inflation above 4% using the auspices of the BLS data. While relying on the high priests to examine the entrails, could they have not looked for other signs that inflation was there? [Step 1c — hint at better ways to measure].

Then in 2024, just before an election, my predecessors were able to cut rates. Inflation must have been below 2%, no? No, inflation was above 3%, but we cut rates. Yes, I understand why everybody says inflation is bad, but did they act on it? [Step 1d — point out recent examples that don’t match the current angst on inflation].

Rate Hikes Quell Inflation, Except…

Step 2 — Argue that rate hikes are not always an effective tool against inflation.

Rate hikes will quell inflation. Yes, we have a conflict in the Middle East where the U.S., under the guidance of President Trump, is trying to make the world safe (I’m writing what he as an appointee might say). One offshoot of that conflict has been higher energy prices across the globe. The U.S. as a net exporter has weathered this better than other regions. Energy prices (including gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel) have risen, along with products reliant on oil and LNG as their feedstock. Will hiking rates cause oil prices to come down? Will people drive less because of a hike? How does raising the cost of funding help our great energy companies explore and produce more energy? Shouldn’t we be making it easier for companies to invest in energy production rather than the other way around? If we had a “natural” supply and demand imbalance, hiking rates might be effective. However, hiking rates due to a conflict, which could ultimately lead to lower energy prices, seems like the bigger mistake. [Step 2a — argue that hiking to offset inflation due to Iran is counterproductive].

Rate hikes will quell inflation. Yes, we have one of the largest capital investments this nation has ever seen! We are building data centers and AI processing power across the country! It is a “revolution” that is “transforming” the country. There are strong arguments that over time, this build out will increase productivity, thereby dampening inflation. Assuming that we think it is good policy to dampen future productivity gains (over today’s concerns), would it even work? Will a single “compute” project be put on hold because we raise rates by 50 bps? Given the profit potential being priced into the market, a 50 bp hike would be a mere blip for these companies regarding their willingness to proceed with projects. Yet every other part of the economy would be hurt. [Step 2b — argue that hiking to slow the “compute” spend is bad public policy and would not work anyways].

We will hike rates when inflation is too high (if we believe that hiking rates will not only act to lower inflation, but also serve the longer-term interests of the nation). The key sources of inflation that we are experiencing will not be impacted by hikes and it would be bad public policy, at the national level, to slow the “compute build.”

Task Forces Are Ambitious, Or Just Common Sense?

Step 3 — Changing the Fed is “ambitious” but necessary.

Is a Balance Sheet Policy Task Force ambitious? Yes, but how did something that was once considered “extraordinary” become a basic part of the tool kit? The most recent Quantitative Easing ended in March 2022. We continued to buy bonds up until the day we first hiked? It is unclear why we waited so long to hike with inflation spiking, but to still be buying bonds right up until that moment in time seems wrong. If QE is “extraordinary,” that makes no sense. The 10-year Treasury was 1.5% in December 2021, with inflation soaring, and the Fed kept buying bonds?

Going back to COVID, we saw “near panic” in corporate bond markets. The need to raise money was overwhelming the ability to support prices. The “carnage” in ETFs attracted the Fed’s attention. A short-dated corporate bond ETF was trading at an extremely large discount relative to NAV, which was causing the ETF Spiral™ to play out (according to the T-Report at Academy Securities (wishful thinking plug on my part)). On a Sunday night, in conjunction with Treasury, the Federal Reserve announced programs to not only purchase corporate debt in the secondary market and to buy corporate debt new issues, but also to buy corporate bond ETFs. The result was instantaneous and markets recovered before the announced programs ever bought a single corporate bond or ETF. It in fact took weeks, or longer, to develop the protocols and piping to execute the plan, but we went ahead with the purchases, even though the announcement had done the heavy lifting. [Step 3a — is it ambitious to question how we use the balance sheet? Yes, but it seems like an extremely useful exercise].

Is having an Inflation Frameworks Task Force ambitious? Yes. Why weren’t we hiking earlier? Why were we cutting when inflation was well above target? Why would we hike (or cut) when many entities (including every person and corporation locking in long-term low yields during ZIRP) would not respond to that simple decision?

Is having a Data Sources Task Force ambitious? Actually, no, it is not ambitious, it is common sense! It has been a long time since anyone at the Fed used a slide rule, so why would we not reassess what data we look at? Businesses have been built around processing, analyzing, and procuring data in a timely fashion. These businesses only survive if they are useful. The Fed itself publishes a swathe of data that seems to be largely ignored by the Fed (at least at FOMC meetings — Cleveland Fed Tenant Repeat Rent). Let’s examine what we already have at the Fed and BLS that can be used. Let’s examine other outside sources. Let’s create a “best of breed” dashboard. I cannot even fathom why some view this as “ambitious” instead of standard operating procedure!

Bottom Line

If I were Warsh, I’d take the gloves off and come out swinging!

Hammer home the point that while “inflation is bad,” the exact level that is “bad” is difficult to determine. There have been inconsistencies in the application of interest rate policy with inflation readings. Get people to question the status quo on what data is useful or not.

Argue that not all sources of inflation would be impacted by raising rates. That understanding the drivers of inflation is key to effective policy — not a “knee jerk” reaction to a number.

Highlight how we have an opportunity to rethink much of the Fed policy making process from the ground up with these task forces, and that these task forces should be the “norm” and should have been in existence already.

I wouldn’t weigh in on jobs (recent data supports the cuts, but this is already getting too long).

I wouldn’t weigh in on the neutral rate — far too wonky and will let Miran or someone else champion that part of the argument on why policy is too restrictive.

Probably far too aggressive on my take (and use of Mark Antony), but I expect that by the end of Jackson Hole, we will see rate hike expectations continue to drop.

I’m not as bullish on rates out the curve, as global sovereign bond issuance (to support defense spending and infrastructure spending) and ongoing corporate debt issuance are likely to keep pressure on the longer end of the yield curve. It doesn’t help, at least for now, that traditional buyers like Japan and the Middle East are likely not buying as much of our debt as they once did (for different reasons).

Rising bond yields and a “hawkish” Fed are something that should not be a concern for equity markets!

Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once.

That seems like a good quote from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar as it is the approach I’d like to see Warsh take (he will emerge victorious, if this is done well).

Have a great weekend, and at least now I won’t have to write about Jackson Hole next weekend.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 18:40

The 10 States Losing Public School Students The Fastest

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The 10 States Losing Public School Students The Fastest

Public school enrollment is shrinking across much of the United States, but nowhere faster than West Virginia. An August 2026 study by family location-tracking app iSharing found that the state lost more than 10,500 public school students between 2021 and 2024, a decline of 4.2%, the steepest in the country, according to family location-tracking app iSharing,

The trend reflects a broader demographic shift. Births have fallen in 44 of the 50 states, meaning many schools are receiving smaller incoming classes. In West Virginia, births dropped 18.3% between 2005 and 2024. New Mexico experienced an even larger 26% decline. Migration can offset some of these losses, but in many states it has not been enough to reverse the trend.

The  iSharing study compared public school enrollment across all 50 states over three years and examined changes in births and migration. It also considered federal projections for 2031 to identify where enrollment could fall further.

West Virginia ranked first, with enrollment falling from about 252,000 students in 2021 to 242,000 in 2024. Although the state recorded slightly positive net migration, declining births continue to reduce the number of school-age children. Enrollment is projected to fall to roughly 217,000 by 2031, another 13.5% decline.

Hawaii ranked second after losing more than 6,000 students, or 3.5%, in three years. Unlike West Virginia, Hawaii faces pressure from both declining births and population loss. Births are down 16.8% since 2005, while net migration was negative. By 2031, Hawaii could lose another 16% of its public school enrollment, the largest projected decline among the states highlighted in the study.

New Hampshire followed with a 3.4% decline and nearly 6,000 fewer students. Although the state continues to attract new residents, births have fallen 18.4% since 2005. With about 11 students per teacher, shrinking enrollment also means increasingly small classrooms. Enrollment is projected to decline another 7.3% by 2031.

Wyoming experienced a similar 3.4% drop, losing more than 3,000 students. Births have fallen 15.9% since 2005, though migration remains slightly positive. Unlike some other states, Wyoming’s decline may soon stabilize. Enrollment is projected at about 89,300 students in 2031, close to its current level.

Maine completed the top five, losing nearly 6,000 students in three years. The state had the strongest positive migration among the leading states, yet that growth could not overcome a 17.8% decline in births. Maine also averages only about 11 students per teacher, and enrollment is expected to fall another 6.3% by 2031.

The consequences extend beyond smaller classrooms. Because public school funding is often tied to enrollment, fewer students can mean fewer resources. An iSharing spokesperson noted that declining enrollment can contribute to cuts in programs such as arts, sports, counseling and teaching support. School closures can also force remaining students to travel farther each day.

Research cited by the company found that 98 schools across 15 states closed during a single school year because of declining enrollment. For families, that can mean longer bus rides, changing districts and greater distances between children, schools and parents.

The numbers point to a challenge that is likely to outlast short-term population shifts. With birth rates falling across most states, many school systems are preparing for a future with fewer students, tighter budgets and difficult decisions about which schools and programs they can continue to support.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 18:05

How Socialism Gains Popularity

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How Socialism Gains Popularity

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

More than 80% agreed economic hardship can make socialist policies attractive even to people who oppose socialism.

Most Americans see communism in an unfavorable light, and a strong majority of Epoch readers say it’s incompatible with the United States’ founding principles. Yet socialism, an early stage of communism, continues to attract people by promising equal wages, low costs, and public benefits.

The goal sounds appealing, but the means have historically included higher taxes and extensive state control.

When asked about a movement in the United States to embrace socialism, Vice President JD Vance said in an Aug. 13 Fox News interview, “Our response to that can’t be to just ignore the economic concerns that I think are feeding this rising interest in socialism.”

American citizens deserve a good life in this country and a good government to make that happen, said Vance.

The Trump administration is rebuilding the industrial base and the heartland, making streets safer, and making it possible for young people to afford a home, Vance said.

“This is how you stop socialism.”

“You don’t stop socialism by throwing slogans at people about the free market—as much as I love the free market—you stop socialism by making people’s lives better, and that’s what we’re trying to do every single day,” Vance said.

Here is a look at Epoch readers’ attitudes towards socialist ideology and a government-controlled economy.

Socialism and Cost

The majority of survey respondents are against the socialist ideology of high taxes and income redistribution.

Ninety percent of readers opposed substantially higher taxes on high-income Americans to fund benefits for working- and middle-class families.

A whopping 97 percent opposed using the tax system not only to fund the government, but also to make incomes more equal, with 92 percent strongly against.

The same 97 percent agreed that the public ultimately absorbs the cost of free government benefits.

Additionally, more than 90 percent of readers would not consider voting for a democratic socialist candidate even if they supported the candidate’s economic policies.

Government Control

Around 96 percent of survey takers oppose greater government economic control in exchange for greater economic security.

Nearly all those polled (98 percent) were against government determining wages and prices rather than leaving them to the free market.

Ninety-three percent opposed allowing extensive government intervention in wages, prices, and social benefits, even if private ownership were preserved.

When it comes to life and affordability, readers’ attitudes softened toward government intervention.

Just over 80 percent of respondents opposed government limits on prices (85 percent), a higher mandated minimum wage (83 percent), and limits on rent increases (81 percent).

Public Benefits

Almost all of those surveyed (97 percent) opposed government providing more basic needs if it weakens individual initiative and productivity.

While 90 percent opposed fare-free public transportation, there was a modest drop to 80 percent who were against taxpayer-funded child care for needy families.

When asked about homeowners funding public schools through property taxes even if they do not use public schools, 67 percent of survey takers opposed, 16 percent were unsure, and 17 percent supported the idea.

How Socialism Gains Popularity

A majority of respondents (94 percent) agreed socialism can expand gradually by eroding private control of property while retaining the label of capitalism.

A similar majority of readers (93 percent) agreed that socialist policies can gain support when presented as benefits rather than as government control.

Eighty-seven percent agreed that people may reject socialism by name while accepting its policies one at a time.

Meanwhile, 82 percent agreed economic hardship can make socialist policies attractive even to people who oppose socialism.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 17:30

“US Can’t Bomb Its Way To Victory”: Scotiabank Maps Bessent’s Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

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“US Can’t Bomb Its Way To Victory”: Scotiabank Maps Bessent’s Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

Brent crude futures ended last week near $88.50 a barrel as traders awaited details of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s planned escalation campaign of the economic war against Iran.

Bessent said Friday that Washington would announce unprecedented economic-isolation measures next week, warning that the coming pressure campaign would be unlike anything “seen in the history of economic isolation on a country.”

For clarity on Bessent’s upcoming economic-isolation operation against Iran, Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank in Toronto, provided clients with an assessment in which Bessent’s warning could signal a move well beyond sanctioning shadow tankers and refiners, toward dismantling the entire financial network supporting Iranian oil exports.

Holt explained:

WHAT COULD BESSENT MEAN?

What could Bessent do to economically isolate Iran further that has “never been seen”?

• Target China and India: China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is involved in undermining US sanctions. The US sanctions some individual Chinese entities and, in April, announced sanctions against Chinese “Teapot” refineries (here). The US could step up its actions by sanctioning all Chinese banks, this time including large institutions, and blocking their access to the US and global financial systems. That would push China further away from the SWIFT system and block access to correspondent and other forms of banking. It could block access to US dollar funding markets. This would very likely enrage China and risk multiple forms of retaliation and escalation.

• Broaden the scope of sanctions on Iran: This would extend the scope to any global group, company or entity involved in buying, financing, insuring or shipping Iranian oil. Looking at you, global banks, currency exchanges, commodity traders, shippers, etc. Actions under this category would aim to entirely thwart the sale of oil from Iran to China in yuan and its conversion into dollars and other currencies via exchange houses in Iran and elsewhere. You target other Middle Eastern nations facilitating this trade by blocking their access to dollar funding and global banking markets, such as Dubai’s one-foot-in-and-one-foot-out stance on the war, which continues to facilitate Iranian transactions. Dubai fancies itself a financial center; you destroy such ambitions.

• Target Iranian crypto assets: This Treasury announcement last month targeted individuals and entities under a specific Iranian person’s name. The US could broaden this action to include freezing access to all Iranian global holdings of crypto, gold, real estate, foreign accounts, etc.

• Target global ports: Any foreign port that facilitates trade and transactions with shipping companies that transited Iranian ports could be targeted.

He continued:

And there may well be other creative options in scale and scope. The broad point is to escalate the economic and financial blockade of the Iranian economy and financial system by enveloping all parts of the global economy, namely China, and the global financial system that allow Iran to continue to sell oil and access funding markets.

Would it work? I’m not sure. Iran knows suffering. Iran is used to being a pariah. Iran still has friends in low places. Iran has its own means of escalating, including unleashing unspeakable terror.

The consequences to the global economy and financial system could also limit or entirely thwart the chances of success. I’m sure they know the risks, but Treasury would sharply amplify tensions with China and India and could potentially cripple individual banks while not ruling out increased systemic risk within the broader financial system. Cutting off access to dollar funding markets could destabilize major players in the financial system. The spillover effects through a complicated web of connections shouldn’t be treated lightly.

The US is finally getting that it can’t just bash and bomb its way to victory against Iran. I’m not sure it gets the limitations and risks that could be associated with escalating broader measures at an all-encompassing global level. It could well take a bungled war that the US and Israel entered without much thought, without a strategy and without an exit plan, while not consulting Congress or allies, and compound the missteps even further and potentially more seriously.

For context, China buys more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it the most likely target in any effort by Bessent to cut Tehran’s energy revenues. But the escalating economic war would carry significant risks. Sanctions on large Chinese companies or financial institutions could escalate tensions with Beijing ahead of a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Also removing discounted Iranian crude from the global market could also tighten supplies and push already elevated Brent and WTI prices higher.

Professional subscribers can read more institutional commentary on the Gulf region, covering energy markets and policies, at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 15:45

Autopsy Bombshell: Los Alamos Lab Worker’s Death Looks Like Murder

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Autopsy Bombshell: Los Alamos Lab Worker’s Death Looks Like Murder

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Fresh autopsy findings on the skeletal remains of a Los Alamos National Laboratory administrative assistant have delivered a direct challenge to any suggestion of suicide.

Melissa Casias was found propped against a tree in a remote stretch of New Mexico forest nearly a year after she vanished.

The gunshot path through the base of her skull has left investigators and family members pointing to foul play – and the case now sits inside a much larger cluster of dead and missing scientists tied to nuclear programs and UFO secrets.

Casias, 53, disappeared from her Ranchos de Taos home on June 26, 2025. She left without keys, wallet, or identification. Both her work and personal phones were found factory-reset. Surveillance caught her walking alone on State Road 518.

Her remains were discovered May 28, 2026, in the McGaffey Ridge area of Carson National Forest, a handgun nearby that her family says did not belong to her. Wildlife had scattered parts of the body.

Family-hired searchers later recovered additional evidence the initial police sweep had missed: bones, bloody clothing, orange peels, possible horse hair, shredded paper, and a tobacco pouch – items Casias did not use.

Attorney David Adams noted the rugged terrain and possible need for a horse to move a body. He also flagged chain-of-custody problems.

The Office of the Medical Investigator listed the cause of death as undetermined. The gunshot was perimortem, meaning it occurred around the time of death, entering near the spinal cord-brain junction damaging the C1 vertebra before exiting through the thin bone of the left temple.

Advanced decomposition prevented examiners from determining whether the gunshot was the actual cause of death or how close the weapon was held.

An anonymous law enforcement source told the Daily Mail the angle made suicide physically improbable: “There’s no way this was suicide, not from that angle… The kickback would have made the gun go straight up. That’s ridiculous. She was murdered.”

Earlier reporting established she left home with her toothbrush and thyroid medication – “things that might indicate you’re planning to stay alive.”

Former FBI agent Ben Hansen has assessed the case as roughly 80 percent foul play and raised the possibility of directed-energy weapons or voice-to-skull technology that could compel unusual behavior without conventional ballistic evidence. Initial CT scans showed no projectile in the skull.

Casias worked as an administrative assistant at Los Alamos, a facility with deep nuclear and historical Manhattan Project roots. Administrative staff in such environments often have broad awareness of sensitive operations. Her case is one of several involving New Mexico personnel linked to nuclear facilities.

The wider pattern stretches further. Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. William Neil McCasland, former commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory and long described as a UFO gatekeeper, vanished from his Albuquerque home on February 27, 2026 – days after President Trump ordered full disclosure of all UAP and UFO records. He left with hiking boots, a wallet, and a revolver. No phone. No glasses. No trace.

Monica Jacinto Reza, a materials engineer who co-invented a nickel-based superalloy for rocket engines and held ties to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, disappeared while hiking in the Angeles National Forest on June 22, 2025. Extensive searches turned up nothing.

Joshua LeBlanc, a NASA nuclear thermal propulsion team lead working on projects aimed at faster Mars transit, vanished from his Huntsville home in July 2025. His Tesla later crashed and burned; he was found charred inside.

James “Tony” Moffatt, a NASA-linked aerospace engineer and veteran pilot, died with his wife and two sons in a plane crash in South Carolina in April 2026.

Other cases in the same period include anti-gravity researcher Amy Eskridge (ruled suicide amid prior claims of directed-energy harassment), JPL scientist Michael David Hicks, nuclear contractor Steven Garcia, and additional researchers whose deaths or disappearances pushed the documented total past eleven by mid-April 2026.

President Trump ordered the FBI and relevant agencies to examine the cases for any commonalities. He has since stated that so far the administration is finding “not much of a connection,” describing many as individual tragedies while promising a full report. Two sets of previously classified UFO and UAP files have been released under his disclosure directive, with additional batches following.

The official posture remains that no coordinated plot has been established. Families, private investigators, and some former federal agents continue to flag behavioral anomalies, missing evidence, and professional overlaps that refuse to sit quietly.

In an era of forced transparency on UAP records, the accumulation of unexplained deaths and vanishings among those with proximity to nuclear and advanced aerospace work keeps the questions alive.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 15:10

Tokenization Of H₂O: Elites Are Claiming The World’s Water Supply & Plan To Trade It

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Tokenization Of H₂O: Elites Are Claiming The World’s Water Supply & Plan To Trade It

Submitted by Patti Johnson,

Yep, you heard me right. This is not a joke or exaggeration. The facts are out there for all to see. I wrote about the tokenization of nature in my article “From Blockchain to Ball and Chain: Are We Being Borged?”

This article will deal primarily with the tokenization of the world’s water supply.

Tokenization: Turning Life Itself into a Tradeable Chip

For those who do not understand tokenization, here is a short and simple explanation: Tokenization means turning something real, like a share of water rights, a measured volume of water from a river or aquifer, or even credits for water that was “saved” or recycled, into a digital token (a unique digital certificate) that lives on a blockchain.

A blockchain is simply a shared digital notebook that many computers keep identical copies of at the same time, so the records of who owns what cannot be secretly changed by any one person or company.

That token can then be bought, sold, or traded on markets the same way people trade stocks or other assets. Instead of water simply belonging to the land, the local community, or the people who rely on it, it becomes a financial product that large investors, corporations, and institutions can own fractions of and exchange for profit. The right to use, claim, offset, or trade that water becomes the commodity.

Offset means making up for the water you use by helping save or restore the same amount somewhere else. A farmer switches to drip irrigation, a project restores a wetland, or a company reuses treated wastewater. That saved or restored water is measured and turned into credit. You buy or claim the credit. On paper your water use is balanced.

How Dare They Profit from Stealing Our Water

How dare they make money off this corrupt plan to steal, control, measure and meter the world’s water supply. Yes, I sound like Greta. The irony is thick: the same girl who made “How dare you” famous has been thoroughly programmed to cheer for Agenda 2030 and the very control grid she should be screaming against. Since she refuses to use her catchphrase where it actually belongs, then I will.

Water is the foundation of life itself. Every human, every animal, every plant depends on it. Yet the same elites who lecture the public about scarcity and climate are building the machinery to turn every last drop into a tradable asset they can profit from while ordinary people face rationing and surveillance.

This is exactly the process already described and promoted in official reports. Goldman Sachs itself published “Securing and Financing the Future of Water” in 2026, openly stating that tokenization can turn water rights into traceable tokens that track use across markets and deliver credits for companies that conserve or recycle water through connections to flow meters. Read it yourself: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/securing-and-financing-the-future-of-water

The United Nations has declared the world has entered an era of “Global Water Bankruptcy.” Their report argues that the old system of local rights is finished and that new enforceable limits, transparent accounting, and centralized management are required. See the official collection: https://unu.edu/inweh/collection/global-water-bankruptcy

The Mapping Machines Are Already Flying Over Your Head

Look at how they are already doing it.

Across the United States, helicopters now fly low over farms and aquifers towing giant electromagnetic loops that map the groundwater beneath our feet like an MRI of the earth. California’s Department of Water Resources runs statewide Airborne Electromagnetic Surveys for exactly this purpose. Click here to read how the water mapping technology works: https://water.ca.gov/programs/sgma/aem

More detail and images of the surveys: https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2024/Mar-24/Understanding-the-Underground-DWR-Completes-First-Phase-of-Innovative-Groundwater-Mapping-Program

USGS examples of the same helicopter-based technology used for aquifer mapping: https://www.usgs.gov/news/state-news-release/media-alert-low-level-helicopter-flights-image-geology-over-wyoming-and

These surveys create detailed maps of every major water source so that usage can later be tracked and limited.

The The All-Seeing Eye of Oracle Returns: Now It Watches Every Drop You Use

Oracle Utilities already processes data from more than 100 million meters worldwide with AI systems that detect irrigation, leaks, and individual household use in real time. Their customer platform is designed for exactly this level of precise control: https://www.oracle.com/utilities/customer-platform/

Larry Ellison didn’t just dream of a panopticon. He said the quiet part out loud: “Citizens will be on their best behavior because we are constantly recording and reporting everything that’s going on.” That wasn’t a warning. That was a sales pitch from the man who still owns roughly 40% of Oracle, the company now quietly embedding itself into the pipes that deliver the most basic resource on Earth: water.

Once you own the real-time ledger of every drop that enters every home, every farm, every factory, you don’t need jackboots. You just need a dashboard. Throttle the water, and compliance follows. The same technocratic elite that spent decades consolidating data, finance, and surveillance is now moving on the last ungoverned commons, water itself, under the soothing branding of “customer platforms” and “smart utilities.”

And Ellison isn’t some lone eccentric billionaire operating in a vacuum. He’s a Trump donor who poured roughly $45 million into supporting the 2024 campaign and has since enjoyed the kind of access that turns political proximity into regulatory profit. The same circle that lectures about freedom while building the tools to score, monitor, and ration everyday life now has one of its most unapologetic surveillance advocates sitting in their inner circle.

The water meters are just the latest sensor in a system that already knows when you open the fridge, when and where you drive, when you yawn, drink, text or speak and soon, how long you shower and how many times you flush your toilet.

This is not innovation. This is the elite’s operating system for managed scarcity and behavioral compliance, dressed up as progress and sold by a man who openly celebrated the idea that constant recording would keep the public “on their best behavior.” Oracle isn’t managing utilities. It’s helping construct the choke points. What’s next Larry? Are you going to regulate and tokenize oxygen?

The infrastructure for control is already being paired with the financial machinery. Chainlink, a decentralized oracle network that feeds real-world data such as meter readings and conservation verification into blockchain systems, has published detailed guides on digitizing water rights and conservation credits into tokens so companies can buy offsets just like carbon credits: https://chain.link/article/tokenized-water-rights-credits

In Dubai, the DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre), a government-backed free zone and major international trading hub, has signed agreements to launch the world’s first digital token backed by verified freshwater reserves, positioning water itself as a tradable commodity on global markets: https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2025/june/17-06/dmcc-signs-strategic-mou

They Already Seized the Food and Are Playing God with the Weather

The elites have been systematically taking control of the world’s food supply for years. Bill Gates, through Cascade Investment, has become the largest private owner of U.S. farmland, holding hundreds of thousands of acres across nearly twenty states. At the same time, major asset managers like BlackRock hold massive stakes in the dominant agribusiness corporations that control seeds, fertilizers, processing, and distribution.

Simultaneously, cloud seeding programs and solar geoengineering research, backed by Silicon Valley money and governments, are rapidly expanding. These efforts claim to manage rainfall and cool the planet, yet they place the power to influence weather patterns in the hands of the very institutions already pushing centralized control over water and food.

In other words, they are running the classic Hegelian dialectic to consolidate power:

  1. Create the droughts through weather geoengineering/modification

  2. Declare an emergency and frighten the public.

  3. Arrive with the “solution,” water tokenization that will supposedly save the planet but in reality just make them richer.

The pattern is unmistakable. Connect the dots. First, they buy the land that grows the food. Then they experiment with altering the weather that waters the crops. Now they are mapping, metering, and tokenizing the water itself so that every drop can be tracked, rationed, and sold.

This Is Not Theory. This Is the Takeover in Progress. Technocracy 101

They tell us water is too important to leave in local hands. They declare bankruptcy on systems that have sustained communities for generations. Then they create the digital and physical infrastructure to measure every use, enforce every limit, and profit from every token. The shared nature of water is being rewritten into a system of permission slips owned by the elite few who say that they, the experts, the financiers, the scientists, know best how to manage nature and humanity. It is all part and parcel of the plan of Technocracy Inc.

And make no mistake, this entire scheme sits squarely inside the United Nations Agenda 2030 and its Sustainable Development Goals. SDG 6 pretends to be about “clean water and sanitation for all,” yet the real machinery being built is the global accounting, metering, and financialization of every drop. The same institutions that wrote the goals now promote water “bankruptcy,” enforceable limits, transparent tracking, and market-based solutions that turn a basic necessity of life into a tradable asset class. What is sold to the public as sustainability and equity is in practice the transfer of control from communities and nations to the very financial and bureaucratic elites who drafted the blueprint. Agenda 2030 is the framework being used to justify seizing, measuring, and selling the world’s water under the banner of saving it.

This is the plan. It is already in motion. And the people pushing it expect the public to accept it as inevitable.

It is NOT inevitable.

Resistance is NOT futile.

Expose the plan. Shout if from the rooftops, news sites, podcasts and council meetings.

Don’t let the elites complete their takeover plan. They have the money but we have the numbers.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 14:00

Beijing Wants Nvidia Out But China’s AI Developers Aren’t Ready

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Beijing Wants Nvidia Out But China’s AI Developers Aren’t Ready

China has spent years pouring money and political capital into building a homegrown semiconductor industry. Yet when its AI companies need to train their most sophisticated models, many still turn to Nvidia, according to South China Morning Post.

The biggest obstacle may no longer be the chips themselves. It is everything developers have built around them.

Nvidia’s CUDA software has become deeply woven into the way AI labs operate. Models, training tools and internal workflows have been designed around the platform, meaning switching to Chinese hardware can resemble rebuilding part of the factory rather than simply swapping out a machine.

SCMP writes that Huawei’s Ascend processors are among the leading domestic alternatives, but moving an established operation onto them can require substantial engineering work. One researcher estimated that doing so could increase the time and expense of a project by at least 50%.

How painful that transition becomes depends heavily on the model. Widely available open-source models such as DeepSeek are easier because engineers can modify the code and lean on work already done by others. In those cases, migration might require only a few developers and several additional weeks.

Closed systems are another matter. Without access to the underlying source code, engineers may have to spend months rebuilding and optimizing parts of the training process. One industry estimate suggested a difficult migration could occupy roughly 10 engineers for more than half a year.

China has had more success moving the finished products onto domestic infrastructure. Once a model has already been trained, running it for everyday queries — known as inference — is generally much easier to adapt to different hardware.

And domestic chips are beginning to handle training as well. Meituan said its enormous LongCat-2.0 model was developed using a 50,000-chip Chinese computing cluster.

So China’s Nvidia problem is increasingly about inertia as much as technology. Domestic processors may continue closing the performance gap, but Nvidia has something much harder to manufacture quickly: years of software, developer familiarity and infrastructure built around its ecosystem.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 13:25

‘Wolves In White Coats’: 5 Key Takeaways From HHS Report On Alleged Pediatric Gender-Treatment Fraud

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‘Wolves In White Coats’: 5 Key Takeaways From HHS Report On Alleged Pediatric Gender-Treatment Fraud

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A report released Aug. 13 by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has shined a light on alleged fraud by health providers who performed pediatric gender procedures.

The report, titled “Wolves in White Coats: How Doctors and Hospitals Pushed and Profited from the Fraud of ‘Gender Medicine’,” examined the actions and motives of 225 healthcare institutions and found they allegedly put profits and gender ideology ahead of patient needs.

Here are five key takeaways from that study.

HHS Alleges Insurance Coding Fraud

The HHS report laid out an alleged pattern of deception, encouraged by groups promoting gender procedures in children, where hospitals and healthcare providers utilized incorrect insurance codes to ensure they got paid.

Rather than use already-existing, specific codes related to gender identity disorders, HHS alleged they used what the study called “proxy diagnosis codes” that were vague, or outright false.

One common diagnosis was “endocrine disorder—unspecified,” which allowed doctors to bill for cross-sex hormones. HHS data showed that between 2015 and 2025, more than $42 million was billed to insurance companies under the unspecified disorder diagnosis.

A 2023 study by the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics found that out of 1,480 patients diagnosed with unspecified endocrine disorder, only 71 actually had such an illness. An analysis by the Manhattan Institute also found a 30 percent rise in such diagnoses between 2020 and 2022, HHS said.

Another common miscoding was for “precocious puberty,” which allowed the doctors to prescribe and bill insurers for puberty blockers. The study found that between 2015 and 2025, insurers were billed more than $11 million under this diagnosis for patients aged 13 to 17.

But that can’t be accurate, the report said, because 13 to 17 is the natural age for puberty.

Advocates Encouraged ‘Alternative Diagnosis Codes’

The World Professional Association of Transgender Health, Planned Parenthood, and other groups encouraged healthcare providers to use “alternative diagnosis codes” not related to gender dysphoria, the HHS report stated.

The Epoch Times reached out to these organizations for comment.

In one instance, a Harvard-affiliated gender clinic called Fenway Health advocated using “more vague” diagnosis codes, but also warned that using inaccurate coding is illegal.

Another organization, the Campaign for Southern Equality, put together a toolkit called “Insurance Coding Alternatives For Trans Healthcare” that outlined workarounds for patients with gender dysphoria.

Most insurers exclude gender procedures unless state law requires coverage, the document states. The toolkit shows which coding is frequently rejected by insurers, and which commonly accepted codes to use instead.

If the insurer denies coverage, the toolkit suggests appealing repeatedly. After the third appeal, the case “goes to an outside agency, and is often accepted.”

For example, a patient can claim orchialgia—persistent pain in the testicles—to justify surgical castration, according to the report.

“How do you do a mastectomy, but then bill an insurance company and not raise any red flags? … You bill it as breast reduction instead of a mastectomy,” said Dr. Eithan Haim, an author of the report.

“This guide is essentially a template for how to commit medical fraud. We should all remember that this is something that people go to prison for. This is a major deal.”

In 2024, Haim was indicted by the DOJ for allegedly exposing private information on patients after he accused a Texas hospital of secretly providing gender surgeries on minors in violation of state law. His case was dismissed with prejudice the next year.

Lifelong ‘Captive Patients’ and Revenue

So-called gender affirming care is lucrative as the “captive patients,” as the report called them, require continual medical maintenance that can last decades—or a lifetime.

“You take a little girl and put her on testosterone, or a little boy and put them on estrogen. Well, they’re going to be on that forever and ever, right?” Assistant HHS Secretary Adm. Brian Christine said in an interview with NTD, The Epoch Times’ sister media outlet.

The surgeries and hormone treatments can also result in severe side effects, requiring more doctor visits and racking up hospital fees, the report noted. Mental therapy is often needed, too.

Citing data from the Human Rights Campaign—an organization that supports these procedures in minors—the report said the costs can range from $25,000 to $75,000 per patient.

If the client chooses to have surgeries, the total can skyrocket as high as $170,000 and beyond. Those numbers don’t include peripheral costs, such as hair removal, voice therapy, or reversal procedures.

The report included testimony from one young man who was told that “facial feminization” surgery would cost him $200,000.

“This new patient cohort—young, insured, or Medicaid-eligible, and requiring perpetual follow-ups—represented a strategic area of growth,” the report stated.

“Endocrinology and surgery departments gained volume and prestige, while hospital administrators gained a reliable revenue line that helps subsidize lower-margin services.”

The industry has brought in an estimated $120 million since 2019, the report stated.

Biden Administration

According to the report, President Joe Biden’s administration facilitated youth gender procedures, putting pressure on hospital systems by threatening to go after institutions that refused to perform them.

The Biden administration said healthcare workers were bound by the rules of the Affordable Care Act, and refusing gender treatments was “discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.”

“Attempts to restrict, challenge, or falsely characterize this potentially lifesaving care as abuse is dangerous,” a Biden-era HHS document stated.

The approach was multi-faceted. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission told employers that their insurance couldn’t exclude such procedures. HHS, the DOJ, and the Department of Education also “took the position in guidance, regulations, and litigation that prohibitions on disability-based discrimination … may apply to individuals with gender dysphoria.”

The Office of Personnel Management also mandated that federal insurance carriers cover the procedures. The National Institute of Health also conducted a $10 million study to probe the impact of gender procedures on children, the HHS report said.

The Biden administration’s gender initiatives were overturned by President Donald Trump at the beginning of his second term in office. The Federal Trade Commission has also sued the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, alleging youth gender interventions are offered under false pretenses since they don’t resolve patients’ mental distress.

WPATH, in a June statement, said the suit was a product of “a relentless and targeted campaign to undermine gender-affirming care.”

Vance Calls for Investigation

In the wake of the report’s publication, Vice President JD Vance asked the Justice Department to look into the fraud accusations.

“These allegations are crazy, and they demand investigation,” Vance said in a video posted to social media Aug. 13.

The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ to learn if the department would do so but received no response by time of publication.

As Fenway Health noted in one of its guidance documents, deliberately miscoding to deceive insurers is illegal, and the liability risk increases when Medicaid is involved because such fraud can run afoul of the  Federal False Claims Act.

That law allows the government to recoup triple damages and impose other financial penalties, and opens the door for private citizens to file civil suits on its behalf.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 12:50

The Decline Of Higher Education Continues

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The Decline Of Higher Education Continues

Authored by Mike McDaniel via AmericanThinker.com,

During my second career teaching high school English, I noticed several darkly funny but disturbing trends in “higher” education.  They were fueled by three primary drivers: abandoning merit, the federal government taking over the student loan industry, and DEI hysteria.

It was Barack Obama who federalized the student loan industry, pushing the idea that everyone should go to college.

To make that idea a reality, it was necessary for the government to guarantee student loans.

That had plenty of unfortunate and foreseeable effects. Because Colleges no longer had any financial skin in the game, they went on a mad administrator-hiring binge, which required enormous amounts of money, which required unprecedented numbers of students. 

Combined with a faux-religious devotion to DEI, colleges admitted all manner of people who in past years would have reasonably been found to be poorly suited to do college-level work. To cover this, it was necessary to do away with any sort of predictive testing like the SAT. All that was required for college admission was a student loan, unless one was a white male applying at an Ivy League school. Those guys, regardless of academic qualification, were often denied.

Enormous DEI departments with all manner of administrators and functionaries were established, and hundreds of millions were wasted on DEI gurus imported to inspire them.

So unprepared were so many, colleges were forced to establish remedial high schools on campus. It was a great scam. Full tuition for no credit, and blame students’ lack of ability on high school teachers like me, who could have told them who wasn’t academically capable if anyone had bothered to ask.

Grade inflation was a direct result of these disasters. It was necessary to hide the scams, so professors were required not only to dumb down the content of their classes and to require far less work, but to award unearned grades. An entire generation of college students was conditioned to expect maximum grades for minimum and poor work. And God help any professor who gave a minority student the grade their lack of work deserved.

As a result, innumerable students took 6-7 years to get a 4-year degree at enormous cost, but many simply dropped out without a degree, bearing enormous debt they had no credentials or ability to pay off.

I’m certainly not arguing college should be denied to anyone. I’ve known many people who struggled greatly but managed to earn a degree and were better and more productive people for it. I am arguing for rational decision-making and fiscally sound, ethical colleges.

The second Trump Administration has seen substantial success in forcing higher education to do away with DEI and to restore some degree of credibility to college degrees, which in recent years have come to mean little or nothing. But as the University of Michigan has recently demonstrated, there remains much to be done:

Graphic: X Post

So, students get a semester off to “acclimate to the demands of a University of Michigan education?” Not terribly long ago, students were expected to be ready for that when they first set foot on campus, and if they weren’t, academic probation was ready to encourage them.

And there’s a “mental health crisis” at the University of Michigan caused by expecting college students to do college-level work? Graduating people who lack the mental stability to be sufficiently responsible to do college assignments tends not to give employers faith in University of Michigan degrees, particularly in science-related fields.

The misadventures of Jason Arday at Cambridge, one of the Western world’s storied universities, are instructive. Without question an outrageously DEI hire, Arday didn’t show up to teach classes, had no teaching ability, was a blatant plagiarist, and, when challenged, cried “racism,” and so did Cambridge in defending his indefensible conduct and manifest lack of ability. How he managed to obtain a doctorate remains unanswered, perhaps unanswerable. In the aftermath of Arday’s forced resignation, a Cambridge faculty member felt the need to remain anonymous:

Graphic: X Post

That academic’s conclusions are remarkable mainly because circa 2026, it would be necessary for anyone to publicly state such obvious understandings about the nature of higher education. Arday, whose supposed qualifications and accomplishments should have set off every alarm at Cambridge, was instead praised and defended despite being far more of a charlatan than Professor Harold Hill, but without the roguish charm.

Those lies apparently cost Arday far more than an academic reputation.

Replacing merit with identity/sexual politics and eternal grievance has been a disaster for higher education and for America.

College has been, and ever must be, a proving ground, a place where one not only learns a body of useful knowledge but demonstrates the character necessary to apply it.

Hard work, determination, reliability, sincerity, honesty, and more must be forged in that crucible, just as it still is in the professional trades where one produces or walks.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 11:40

‘Delusional’: Iran Fires Back At Trump’s Make ‘Hormuz Strait A Territory Of The US’ Ambitions

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‘Delusional’: Iran Fires Back At Trump’s Make ‘Hormuz Strait A Territory Of The US’ Ambitions

Predictably, Iran has on Saturday issued a full-throated rejection of President Trump’s Friday evening words related to the status on the conflict and energy transit in the region.

In a speech on New York’s Long Island, Trump introduced the idea of declaring the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated — pretty soon, I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump told a crowd of law enforcement officers.

“Essentially, that’s what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to,” he added. He claimed oil prices were coming “way down”.

Some pundits pointed to what seemed like classic hyperbole and his penchant for floating extreme scenarios in off-the-cuff fashion; however, Trump made the statement without any qualifiers other than it will happen when Iran is “badly defeated” by the United States. That seems to be the big if in the future scenario.

A Saturday X response from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi asserted the US has zero authority to claim the strait:

“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,” he wrote, as translated from Persian to English. “This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command.”

The Iranian official then claimed all of Trump’s assumptions about the conflict were delusional, showing that Washington does “not accept the reality of defeat” and so must stop indulging in its “delusions”.

The Iranians have been reiterating that they will continue to enforce their blockade, also as the US Navy continues blocking imports and exports from Iranian ports.

Tehran continues to present the Oman deal – still pending finalization – as completely independent of US desires and conditions, and so better not interfere:

Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of technical negotiations, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has told state-run Defa Press.

“Despite US obstruction, the talks have made positive progress over the past three weeks and an agreement has been reached on the shipping route map.”

He added that both sides were still negotiating outstanding issues, including a statement to be issued by Tehran and Muscat, noting that exchanges between the two countries would continue until the process was finalized.

Given the two sides continue holding to conflicting absolutist demands and conditions, there’s a likelihood of further fighting – though it could continue to at a limited, tit-for-tat and slow pace.

Some Republican hawks are calling for some kind of bold military action by Trump, such as ordering the takeover of Kharg Island in order to show the Iranians and the American public that Tehran does not have the upper hand ahead of US November midterm elections.

However, the nearly six months of war so far has tended to demonstrate that each new escalation has not tended to go well for Washington, as Iran digs in its heels and escalates a response in turn.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2026 – 11:05

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