Authored by Peter St. Onge via Money Metals,

“Will Debt Sink the American Empire?”

So asks the Wall Street Journal, in an uncharacteristically gloomy article for the bull market’s paper of record.

They kick off with the problem: America is “cruising” into an uncharted sea of federal debt, with a government seemingly incapable of turning it around.

In other words, the uniparty has set its course, and there’s no cavalry coming.

The Runaway Train of Deficits

We’re currently adding a fresh trillion of debt every hundred days, on our way to $35 trillion.

Meanwhile, the deficit is about to break $2 trillion – for perspective, all federal revenue under George W Bush averaged around $2 trillion.

Debt interest *alone is set to cross $1 trillion, eclipsing even our bloated military budget that beaches quarter-billion dollar piers in Gaza for sport.

The next milestone after that is Medicare spending, which together with Social Security has its own $78 trillion unfunded liability, according to its own Board of Trustees – outside estimates are higher.

Governments Are Rabid by Nature

Now, none of this is shocking: governments by nature try to spend too much – indeed, much of economic history is made up of governments desperately trying to finance their mountains of debt.

Debt brought down Rome, first with hyperinflation then with a gutted military that barbarians walked right over.

It brought down Spain, as New World gold finances an effective government takeover of the private sector. And France, bankrupted by financing foreign wars – in this case, the American Revolution. The Qing collapsed under debt and even Great Britain who owned half the earth for nearly a hundred years.

It’s why we got the Magna Carta – indeed, Constitutions – as kings pleaded for more money. It’s how we got central banks, as first Britain then the rest of the world licensed money printers in exchange for debt finance.

To this day government debt crashes countries – countries from Turkey to Venezuela to Nigeria are currently undergoing debt crises, with Argentina desperately trying to pull out of one.

How Does It End?

And, with so many historical cases, we know exactly how this ends: investors stop buying government debt, shutting out governments and leading to massive austerity and soaring inflation as the government retrenches.

Going by history, the government will cancel the trillions it promised — starting with Social Security and Medicare — then pull back to where it can pay the Praetorian Guard and not much else.

In short, once debt hits the magic line, Washington goes from Sugar Daddy to wild animal. And, historically, it happens much faster than people imagine — in Hemingway’s famous phrase, countries go bankrupt gradually then all at once.

There Is a Ray of Hope

Washington’s spending freight train can be stopped – in fact, we did stop it in the ’90s under Clinton and Gingrich: From 1997 to 2000 we ran budget surpluses totaling nearly $600 billion.

The key was gridlock – two parties that despised each other so much that the only thing they could agree on was to sabotage each other’s plans.

Unfortunately, whether it was corporate donors or golden parachutes for politicians, both parties have long since folded and are now eager to cooperate so long as they both get everything they want. So Democrats feed their activist army at taxpayer expense, while Republicans instead give ammo to Ukraine.

This all means there is a ray of fiscal hope.

If, say, President Trump were to face a democrat Congress that hates him so much it blocks everything he does – not an impossible thing to imagine.

Or, if you swing that way, a President Biden – or Harris – is subjected to similar antipathy from a GOP Congress.

Or, dare we dream, a GOP that actually stands up on the debt ceiling, damn the media torpedos or wait a couple of years and it’s a crisis in the entire country.

We know which one Washington will pick. But it’s ultimately the voters who run the joint.

The latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reveals that monthly retail ground beef prices just recorded their most significant increase since early 2020, a period in time when major meat processing companies were shuttering plants nationwide. Prices of retail ground beef per pound jumped to new highs in June, with data going back to 2008. This is more bad news for the middle class, which is under severe financial pressure with elevated inflation and high interest rates, resulting in a pullback in consumer spending ahead of the presidential elections this fall. 

Let’s start with the 6.294% rise in June’s retail ground beef prices, marking the largest monthly increase since the 10% spike in May 2020. Back then, the theme was that the closure of packaging plants would crimp production. Now, it’s the summer grilling season as US cattle inventory plunges to the smallest size in 73 years. 

The average supermarket price for ground beef jumped .324 cents in June to a new record high of $5.472. USDA data goes back to 2008. 

Under President Biden’s first term, the percentage change of ground beef per pound has jumped a whopping 38%!

Readers have been well informed about ‘beeflation’ and why it’s happening: 

• Dwindling US Cattle Herd Implies Supermarket Beef Prices May Rise Even More

• Hamburger Prices Might Continue To Rise As US Cattle Herd Shrinks

• US Cattle Prices Hit Nine-Year High As National Herd Drops To Half-Century Low

• US Beef Prices Hit Record High As Nation’s Cattle Herd Expected To Shrink Through 2025

• Tyson Foods CEO Unsure When Nation’s Collapsing Beef Herd Will Reverse

• Rancher: Record High Beef Prices May Be ‘New Norm’

Soaring beef prices comes at a time when the middle class is suffering in the era of failed Bidenomics. We have cited a number of reports from corporate America and top Wall Street analysts who are warning about a consumer slowdown:

• Goldman Tells Top Clients To Start “Shorting The Middle-Income Consumer”

• Goldman’s Commentary On Consumer Health Is An Ominous One

• “Did Something Change?”: Goldman Trading Desk Warns Hedge Funds Are Suddenly Dumping Consumer Stocks

• Pepsi Warns US Snack Demand “Subdued” As Consumer Slowdown Worsens

• Consumer Slowdown Spreads: Helen Of Troy Shares Crash After Big Earnings Miss, EPS Outlook Cut

If the US had a ‘strategic beef reserve, ‘ now would be the time to dump beef into the market. Otherwise, consumers should brace for even higher prices, with the US herd size unlikely to increase anytime soon.

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

Thousands of migrants streamed into Panama through the treacherous jungle of the Darién Gap last week, with many fearing that the route will be shut down, thereby dashing their hopes of reaching the United States.

The influx of migrants intent on crossing the U.S. southwest border unlawfully came as Panama’s new president, Raúl Mulino, took steps to stop the flow through the Darién Gap.

On July 1, the same day that he took office, Mr. Mulino forged a deal with the United States to pay for repatriation flights for migrants entering Panama on their way to the United States.

Migrants expressed desperation and sometimes frustration at the idea that Panama would close the dangerous passageway from Colombia.

In February, The Epoch Times visited the four migrant camps located in Panama, where migrants who had just made it out of the Darién Gap described lawless gangs, whose members robbed, raped, and murdered, along the route.

Several migrants interviewed on-site last week said Panama should start accepting migrants who fly into the country or create another pathway to facilitate their journey to the United States.

At least 1,000 migrants per day on average arrived at the camps last week.

Traffic dropped to roughly half that on July 5 as SENAFRONT, Panama’s national border patrol, began blocking jungle pathways using concertina wire, also known as razor wire.

Video recordings posted on social media by an Epoch Times freelance reporter about the Darién Gap being blocked prompted an avalanche of questions and requests for help in Spanish.

One social media user who said he had four children asked when the route would close because he wants to cross in late July, but he doesn’t yet have the money.

Users posted pleas for help in guiding them through the Darién Gap or into Mexico.

Some expressed disbelief that the passageway north was being shut down, while others cursed the news.

Of the migrants exiting the Darién Gap over a four-day period last week, at least 700 were Chinese nationals who made their way into camp Canaán Membrillo in Panama.

The more-affluent Chinese migrants use the Carreto route to get to Canaán Membrillo.

The Carreto route is used by smuggling organizations to move migrants into Panamanian territory by sea before docking and taking a shorter jungle trail by foot.

Panama President-elect José Raúl Mulino visits the Reception Center for Migrant Care in Lajas Blancas, in the jungle province of Darién, Panama, on June 28, 2024. Mr. Mulino has pledged to close the dangerous Darién Gap, a crucial corridor for migrants heading to the U.S. border. (Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images)

Several migrants who spoke with The Epoch Times said they are making their journey to America now because they fear President Joe Biden’s term is ending.

“He’s going, so I’m coming,” one Chinese migrant said.

Two Chinese migrants who spoke on camera but didn’t want to be named, cursed Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.

The pair indicated that they wanted to go to the United States because of the freedom that its citizens enjoy, saying there are no human rights in China.

Some migrants said family members had told them they could vote in the United States.

Many said they would vote for President Biden if given the chance. One of the Chinese migrants said he would vote for former President Donald Trump if he could “because Trump is more tough” on the Chinese regime.

He said he believes that some Chinese nationals crossing into the United States are Beijing spies.

At Panama’s Bajo Chiquito migrant camp, one Indian national who gave his first name as Monish said he is concerned that he could be deported if former President Trump is reelected.

Monish believes it is legal to walk into the United States because his friends who have already done so told him that the U.S. Constitution says that “no human is illegal.”

“Joe Biden is a very good person. He’s very helpful for immigrants,” Monish said.

Panama began placing razor wire inside the dense jungle, cutting off some routes used by human smugglers.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who attended Mr. Mulino’s inauguration, signed a memorandum of understanding to provide assistance to Panama for illegal migrant repatriation flights out of the country.

Illegal immigrants arrive at the Reception Center for Migrant Care in Lajas Blancas, in Darién, Panama, on June 28, 2024. Panama reported more than 500,000 migrant crossings in the Darién Gap in 2023. (Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images)

“As the United States continues to secure our borders and remove individuals without a legal basis to remain, we are grateful for our partnership with Panama to manage the historic levels of migration across the Western Hemisphere,” Mr. Mayorkas said in a statement about the deal.

The agreement is “designed to jointly reduce the number of migrants being cruelly smuggled through the Darién, usually en route to the United States,” according to a statement from National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson.

Sending migrants back home “will help deter irregular migration in the region and at our southern border and halt the enrichment of malign smuggling networks that prey on vulnerable migrants,” she said.

The United States agreed to supply Panama with equipment, transportation, and logistics to send migrants illegally entering Panama back to their countries.

Panama has reported record numbers of crossings along the Darién jungle pathway in recent years, including more than 520,000 in 2023 alone.

Mr. Mulino, the country’s 65-year-old former security minister and new president, promised to shut down the migration route controlled by criminal organizations.

“I won’t allow Panama to be an open path for thousands of people who enter our country illegally, supported by an international organization related to drug trafficking and human trafficking,” he said during his inauguration speech.

However, Panama will not be getting help from its neighbor Colombia.

The Ombudsman’s Office of Colombia put out a statement cautioning Panama to not violate the “mobility rights” of migrants.

Illegal immigrants who crossed the Darién Gap into Panama wait in line for bus transportation to Costa Rica, in the Lajas Blancas migrant camp in Darién, Panama. (The Epoch Times)

Colombia’s notice warned its neighbor to not violate international law, which forbids countries from returning asylum seekers to places where they may face danger.

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)—many of which have received millions in U.S. taxpayer dollars—embedded in Panama help migrants with food, shelter, medical aid, and maps at the migrant camps.

One NGO, Human Rights Watch, cast doubt on Panama’s ability to close the Darién Gap completely and feared it would force migrants to find more dangerous routes.

“Whatever the reason for their journey, migrants and asylum-seekers crossing the Darién Gap are entitled to basic safety and respect for their human rights along the way,” said Juanita Goebertus, Americas director of Human Rights Watch.

Fast food joints were once the go-to option for quick, cost-friendly meals, but now, they’re starting to pinch the budget.

Inflation has hit fast food chains hard in the past decade, with many restaurants seeing an average price increase on menu items of more than 50%.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the average price increase of 10 core menu items from select American fast food chains, as well as the change in the consumer price index (U.S. city average) for food away from home, from 2014 to 2024.

Fast food chain data comes from Finance Buzz and the food away from home figure comes from the Federal Reserve’s March 2024 Consumer Price Index data.

The Rising Costs of Dining Out

On average, eating at these 10 fast food restaurants has gotten 63% more expensive since 2014, as shown in the table below.

McDonald’s leads the pack in term of fast food inflation, with some of its food items doubling in price since 2014. The company likely took notice of complaints of its rising prices, and is preparing to roll out a month-long, affordable $5 combo meal deal this summer.

While not visualized on the graphic above, Subway and Starbucks were the only two restaurants that had average price increases that were lower than food away from home inflation, at 39% for both restaurants.

As the cost of dining out has increased across the board, with even fast food options surpassing overall inflation, consumers are running out of cheaper alternatives when it comes to having food away from home.

For the 10th week in the last 12 (basically since taxes), money-market funds saw inflows and last week was bigly with $51BN added pushing the total AUM to a new record high $6.15TN…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed balance sheet rose by $2.5BN last week…

Source: Bloomberg

But as The Fed balance sheet rise, banks saw large deposit outflows last week, -$67BN on an SA basis…

Source: Bloomberg

BUT on an NSA basis, deposits rose by $42BN….?

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign deposits, domestic banks saw $83BN in deposit outflows on a seasonally-adjusted basis – the biggest since April’s Tax Day decline. The drop was dominated by large banks losing $72BN (small banks saw an $11BN decline). On an NSA basis, domestic banks saw $43BN inflows (large banks +$30BN, small banks +13BN)…

Source: Bloomberg

Did the genii at The Fed just make the ‘adjustment’ clean up?

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, there was an overall shrinkage in loan volumes with large banks seeing volumes drop $4.7BN while small bank loans rose $4.3BN…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed rose last week but the chasm between US equity market cap and those reserves remains near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And that liquidity gap is evident on a global scale…

Source: Bloomberg

Are stocks pricing in a massive central bank balance sheet expansion?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“If the entire political and media elite can manufacture the lie for 4+ years that candidate now-President Biden isn’t cognitively impaired, what else might they have lied about and are lying about now?”

– Stephen Miller

You can’t deny that “Joe Biden” did his goodest last night facing down a half-dozen pre-selected reporters representing blob-adjacent news orgs such as Reuters and NPR at the post-NATO meetup damage-control event billed as a “news conference.” Only a week after he declared himself to be the “first black woman vice-president,” he pivoted to correct the record, telling the DC press corps that he’d “picked Vice-president Trump to be vice-president. . .” and everyone in the room saw that they were back in that mortifying scene in The Caine Mutiny when the confused and incompetent Captain Queeg reaches for the ball bearings in his pocket.

At the end of the harrowing hour, he minced his way offstage, leaving his Party of Chaos evermore so perplexed as to how they might lever this burnt-out old hack out of the nomination they foolishly secured for him months ago.

It ain’t gonna be easy, as “JB” repeatedly insisted he had no intention of stepping aside, despite the forces mustering against him in Congress, the media, and Hollywood. Even CNN is turning on him. Meanwhile, the #VeepTrump clip went viral on social media. So much for damage control.

You understand, don’t you, what a fiasco the 75th Anniversary DC NATO meetup itself was?

Everyone in the room, including the key prime ministers and presidents, could sense how flimsy the alliance now appears, as led by our maundering near-zombie president. Like “Joe Biden,” NATO’s raison d’être has been exposed as badly out-of-date and dangerously unhinged. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg kicked things off declaring that “Ukraine is on an ‘irreversible’ path to NATO.” This controverts what everybody in NATO knows is Mr. Putin’s clearest red line, and is therefore either a jape or a bit of recklessly provocative idiocy.

The truth of the matter is this: following its transition out of the failed Soviet experiment thirty years ago, Russia was never a threat to its European neighbors. All the talk of Vladimir Putin seeking to reassemble the old USSR empire was knowingly false, as is the chatter now about Russia looking to invade Europe. What Russia actually sought was to be regarded, once again, as a normal European nation able to conduct normal business with the rest of Europe. The USA wouldn’t allow it.

Exactly why remains partially mysterious. Surely, post-1991, it was in the interest of US military contractors to maintain their Cold War revenue streams. To do that, a foreign hobgoblin had to be invoked — and perhaps China was not the best candidate, since it had begun manufacturing everything on sale in the Walmart — so Russia, with practically no export economy, was cast in that role. And the politicians, too, surely liked creaming off their share of that military-industrial revenue stream, so they went along policy-wise, with figures like John McCain and Lindsay Graham leading the charge. But the US intel blob and State Department had darker motives, driven by an animus that has slowly revealed itself to be insane — just as the Democratic Party has turned obviously insane, adopting a playbook that could have been written by Franz Kafka.

Being likewise insane, the intel blob and the neocons at State harbored an unappeasable hatred toward Russia that, since the Soviet collapse, allowed no accommodation and gelled into a naked avarice for seizing the resources of Russia with a long-term plan to subvert the Russian state, break it up the way they broke up Serbia in the 1990s, and direct a corporate looting operation of Russia’s oil and mineral riches. Ukraine was the doorway they had to go through to get that done.

And so, the blob and State neocons overthrew democratically-elected Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, and installed Poroshenko followed by Zelensky. Veep “Joe Biden” was given the Ukraine “portfolio,” making him a sort of viceroy, and he took full advantage, plopping his son Hunter on the board of Burisma, the huge Ukrainian natgas company that American oil and gas companies drooled over. Hunter managed to milk the Ukrainian government for tribute to the Biden Family bank accounts far above the roughly million-dollar-a-year salary he grifted from his no-show job on the Burisma board. (Hunter also apparently dabbled in a set of bioweapons labs set up in Ukraine by the CIA.) Thus, along with the sheer insanity of the CIA and State Department, the Biden family had a deep and criminal involvement in Ukraine that had to be concealed.

That degenerate relationship has been revealed since the discovery of the laptop that Hunter stupidly left in a Wilmington computer repair shop, and all the disclosures that have followed — including the sedulous recovery of bank records for the many shell companies the Bidens used to conceal their moneygrubbing in Ukraine and other foreign lands.

When Mr. Trump first scented it in the fall of 2019, they impeached him for it. But now that he threatens to return to the White House, the blobists and the Bidens are running out of options to evade an accounting for all this mischief.

That desperation is what drives disintegrating “Joe Biden” to remain president and to continue pressing the malevolent and foolish proxy war against hobgoblin Russia and its vilified president, Mr. Putin. So, now you know.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

A bad data week…

Source: Bloomberg

…was good news for doves as rate-cut expectations soared…

Source: Bloomberg

…and despite yesterday’s bloodbathery, all the US majors managed to rally into the green for the week early on today, with Small Caps literally exploding higher (up around 7% on the week!). A late-day selloff dragged Nasdaq red on the week though…

That was the Russell 2000’s best week since November and broke it out to its highest since Jan 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the biggest RTY/NDX outperformance week since Nov 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were aided by a massive short-squeeze this week which saw “most shorted” stocks soaring 10% – the biggest squeeze since Dec…

Source: Bloomberg

And while MAG7 stocks ended the week lower, it was only marginally, as today’s bounce back erased some of yesterday’s losses…but the late-day selling was predominantly among the mega-cap tech names…

Source: Bloomberg

And of course, after yesterday saw all 7 names ending red (for the first time since April), the rebound today was ‘inevitable’…

Source: Bloomberg

0-DTE tracked stocks up and down today but the late-day selling pressure in stocks was NOT related to 0-DTE flow, in fact they bought the dip…

Source: SpotGamma

Stocks vs bonds this week… no idea!!!

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled on the week, led by the short-end…

Source: Bloomberg

…which prompted a dramatic bull steepening and almost un-inversion of the curve (2s30s)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled for the second straight week (the biggest two-week drop since December), erasing all of the gains seen since June payrolls…

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks in large part to USDJPY and BoJ ‘help’…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed gains on the week as ETF inflows dominated the German govt’s dumpfest (as they emptied their coffers of every coin)…

Source: Bloomberg

BTC ETFs saw inflows for 5 straight days…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back up near record highs this week, closing the week back above $2400…

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to weakness today, crude prices ended the week lower as WTI rejected $83.50…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it was a big week for market moves but in the big picture equities remain in a universe of their own relative to global liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Are stocks expecting a massive liquidity fest?

Open-border advocates love to tell you that “diversity is our strength.” Unfortunately, illegal immigrants flooding into the United States are diversifying the criminal threats Americans face on city streets, exposing them to a tactic widely used across Latin America but rarely seen here — until now. 

Latin Americans — and US followers of Phoenix, Arizona-based Active Self Protection‘s popular YouTube channel — are quite familiar with attacks carried out by two criminals riding a single moped or dirt bike — a modus operandi that facilitates both surprise and a quick getaway. Sometimes the criminals don’t even dismount. In other instances, one or both may get off the ride. Regardless, they frequently wield deadly weapons to compel their prey to part with valuables. 

That was the recent experience of two friends strolling in Brooklyn’s Greenpoint neighborhood after 11pm on a Thursday night. They say a man in a ski mask jumped off the back of a moped and pointed a gun at one of them, taking the 29-year-old man’s watch and the 32-year-old woman’s purse. The gunman then hopped back on the moped and the getaway driver sped the two criminals off into the night.  

“It was very quick, but it was obviously super rattling. I’ve lived in the area for over seven years now, and I’ve never felt unsafe,” the woman told the New York Post, asking that her name be kept out of print for fear of criminal retribution.

The female victim is certain the criminals were Venezuelan — based on her familiarity with their accents, thanks to her having grown up in that country. What she said next spoke volumes:

“It’s pretty insane for this to be happening here. My family left Venezuela because crime like that is very common there, and they just didn’t want us growing up in that kind of like, like lack of safety.”

NYPD told Fox News that, earlier this year, they arrested two armed Venezuelans on a moped — and believe just this one pair was connected to more than 100 robberies. 

Awash in hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, New York City is the top hotspot for moto-crime. “Mopeds as a means of flight from the seven major [crimes] is up over 400% since 2022,” an NYPD source told the Post, “and that’s when we believe we first started seeing the beginning of the wave of new arrivals.” 

Some victims have been targeted because of their foolish choice to wear outrageously pricey watches in public (compounding their foolish choices to spend their money that way in the first place). On June 26, a man in Greenwich Village had a gun pointed at his head before surrendering his $40,000 Rolex. On June 18, armed robbers stole another man’s $100,000 watch outside a Manhattan hotspot. They’ve also been known to yank gold chains off people’s necks. 

Don’t think you’re immune from a moto-attack if don’t flaunt your money. An iPhone, purse or wallet could be all the enticement the low-lifes need. In June, there was a spree of at least four moped-launched robberies in which the thieves yanked headphones off pedestrians’ heads. 

You’re not even safe once you’ve left the street. On June 21, two men with guns entered Williamsburg’s Birds of a Feather restaurant. “They basically held up the entire restaurant at gunpoint,” NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny told NBC New York. He believes the two perpetrators are newly-arrived migrants. 

New York City has seen a massive spike in armed robberies committed by moped raiders. The NYPD says they are #illegal #migrants.

The raiders enter cafes and restaurants and take wallets, watches and jewelry at gunpoint. Then they escape on mopeds. There’s nothing the police can… pic.twitter.com/vpBTPYU4Cy

— UinHurricane (@UinHurricane) July 11, 2024

Of course, you can’t commit a moto-crime without a moto, so they’re also stealing mopeds left and right — as was the case when a food delivery worker was stabbed in the chest and robbed in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn last month. In a May incident in Queens, thieves demanded that 15- and 19-year-old victims give up their moped. When they refused, both were slashed with a knife and yanked off the vehicle. 

Sometimes the criminals simply grab what they want and hit the gas, with no regard for their victims’ lives — as seen in this February attack on a woman in New York City: 

This is what these #NYC moped robberies look like: A victim dragged across the sidewalk and slamming into a pole as suspects on a scooter grab the purse off her shoulder and hit the gas. https://t.co/E3Rv6JNHcU pic.twitter.com/12FhU20feO

— Michael Ruiz (@mikerreports) February 5, 2024

It’s not clear in which country this happened, but here’s how one quick-thinking woman foiled an attempted purse-snatching (keep in mind this defensive tactic carries the risk of triggering punitive violence): 

Typical moped operator behavior here.

1. Smart thinking by the woman.

2. Luckily they were after her purse and not her.

Plan accordingly…#CityLife #crime #smart #moped #urban #purse #women pic.twitter.com/VU4uV0ULWW

— Mrgunsngear (@Mrgunsngear) July 7, 2024

…and here’s another failed robbery with an even more fulfilling ending: 

Via SchiffGold.com,

As student loan debt in America swells to a staggering $1.7 trillion, President Joe Biden’s new SAVE plan could actually cost $230 billion, a CBO report finds. This is not only a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul — it will bring more inflation, make college more expensive and give the federal government unprecedented control over higher education.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The federal student debt loan amount is $1.7 trillion. This debt portfolio is an installment personal loan. Payments occur monthly. Active students have loan totals not due this year. We have no idea how much of the total will be repaid.

The Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan is President Joe Biden and Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona’s reply to the Supreme Court, who ruled the administration’s original sweeping forgiveness program was unconstitutional. The SAVE plan was announced in August 2023. The White House bulletin included a table of payment amounts, indexed by the number of dependents and size of loan.

It is the greatest gift for all income-dependent student-debt payoff plans. It is a Trojan horse for the state to control higher education.

The “original” student loan program from the sixties repaid loans plus interest in a straightforward installment-style plan. A $7,500 loan might take ten years to fulfill. Larger loans received longer terms.

The federal government’s interjection into debt financing came with the Income-Contingent Repayment plan, passed in the 1993 Student Loan Reform Act signed by then-president Bill Clinton. The Student Loan Reform Act set payments at 20 percent of discretionary income. After twenty-five years of eligible payments, the plan writes off any outstanding debt. This was the first signal that the plans anticipated partial payments on student loans.

The slide toward free university accelerated in 2007 with income-based repayment. Monthly payments were calculated on what a student could pay, not what was owed, resetting Income-Contingent Repayment plan payments from 20 percent of income to 10 percent or 15 percent of discretionary income depending on the date the borrower first started borrowing student loans.

In 2010, President Barack Obama signed the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010. Both the lending and collecting of loans was consolidated within the Department of Education (DOEd). This act nationalized the student loan process, putting it in the hands of political appointees, managed by an unprepared, non-banking-experienced staff. In 2010, student loan debt was half the 2023 total.

Income-dependent payback plans describe the four remaining options for paying student loans. SAVE is a new income-dependent plan. There are four common elements to all income-dependent plans.

Published poverty wages:

Poverty wages are deducted from adjusted gross income to produce “discretionary income.” Early plans deducted 100 percent of poverty wages. In the Affordable Care Act of 2010, poverty wage deductions became 150 percent. Later, the DOEd increased the multiplier to 200 percent. SAVE uses 225 percent of poverty wages.

Payment percentage:

Discretionary income is assessed by a fixed percentage to create a payment due. The original plan from 1993 used 20 percent of discretionary income. This changed to 15 percent of discretionary income in 2007. President (“I have my phone and a pen”) Obama issued a presidential memorandum reducing it from 15 percent to 10 percent.

Length of loan and unpaid balances:

If there is an unbroken record of payments, unpaid balances at the end of a loan term are forgiven. The DOEd waved the surrender flag for taxpayers. All loans will not be paid back to the Treasury.

Special status:

Most recently, the DOEd forgave the administration recently using extralegal authority for 1.5 million debtors with $28 billion in debts that were expunged by a department ruling of “substantial misconduct” by colleges that closed early. $45.7 billion was zeroed out by reclassifying 662,000 public service workers. This type of skullduggery is easier in the SAVE plan.

SAVE uses 225 percent of poverty wages as a deduction to reduce the subjective discretionary income. This reduced discretionary income uses a 5 percent calculation to create a payment due. The smallest amount of discretionary income assesses at the smallest percentage as calculated by the White House.

The SAVE plan is not eligible for loans in default. However, a phone call to the DOEd and enrollment in the “Fresh Start” program makes previously ineligible loans available for SAVE. Student payments that are seventy-five days delinquent will automatically enroll in the SAVE program. This can start the delinquency clock on loans greater than 270 days, erasing the record from credit reports. SAVE will eventually bring all loan payments under one process and one department, directed by the president.

We cannot be certain of the ultimate costs. With appropriate disclaimers (for static budgeting with hyperdynamic plans), the Congressional Budget Office suggests that the cost of implementing SAVE could cost $230 billion. Based on a five-year-old study, just under half of all student debt is estimated to be on income-dependent plans. The current number is likely greater based on trends. These plans have variable monthly payments during the term and have a forgiveness option, making any predictions of a final cost speculative. These plans are continually in flux. Any estimate of cost is a guess, more so after covid.

SAVE has legal challenges from attorney generals from three states. This challenge is not creating headlines. Without an injunction or congressional action, the plan would be initiated in July 2024. In June, twenty-five courts in Kansas and Missouri blocked further enrollment in the SAVE plan.

The SAVE plan fits the long-term goal of increased federal control of public higher education. The president can manipulate the plan to modify payments for a population demographic such as “dreamers” or for a major employment segment such as green energy ambassadors.

The courts’ challenge to this plan must succeed. We need a pause for a better fix on the actual debt. Both political parties have mismanaged this program. There are responsible measures in Congress to bring forward to cap this vote-buying scheme and protect taxpayers.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

If it wasn’t evident going into yesterday that President Joe Biden was going to need to step aside, all doubts should now be out of the way.

For his opening act on Thursday, Biden made his way out of bed and to the NATO summit across town, all for the honor of stepping on stage and referring to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy — whom U.S. taxpayers have gifted hundreds of billions of dollars at Biden’s direction to fight Russia — as “President Putin”. To refer to Zelenskiy as Putin, and at a NATO event nonetheless, is about as big of a f*ck up as you can possibly make given the world’s geopolitical climate right now.

This would have been like introducing President George W. Bush throwing out the first pitch at Yankee Stadium after 9/11 as “President Osama Bin Laden”.

And if you weren’t in stitches after his first set, Biden returned later in the evening for an encore at the much heralded ‘Big Boy’ press conference he had been scheduled to give in order to show the world, to quote the movie Big Daddy, that he could “wipe his own ass”.

But instead of instilling confidence in the nation, Biden coughed, mumbled and stumbled his way through about an hour’s worth of prepared remarks and softball questions.

At one point, he referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump”.

Sadly, Biden is slurring his words far more noticeably each day. Even for a skeptic of Biden’s, I had to sigh and turn the press conference off before it finished, writing on X last night: “He is cooked. This has to be the end.”

In other words, even for us conservatives, libertarians and critics of the Biden administration, it’s just getting difficult to watch. Each day jokes about elder abuse look closer and closer to reality, and the humor of a massive clusterf*ck in the Democratic political arena is eroded away by the blossoming realization that it’s simply depressing to watch a human being — somebody’s son, father and husband — deteriorate publicly, without dignity, and surrounded by people too cowardly to do the right thing for him.

The gaffes last night quickly shot down what little chance Biden had of trying to stay in the race, in my opinion. I know it’s technically “up to him” but the powers that be couldn’t have scripted a worse outcome than him calling Zelenskiy “Putin” and then calling Harris “Trump”. Biden’s goose is cooked, mark my words.

This means, as I pointed out days ago, the Democrats are likely going to promote Vice President Airhead to the potential nominee spot, despite her outright horrific polling in the 2020 primaries and the fact that for the most part it appears the country still finds her detestable.

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And while the Trump campaign has publicly stated they are happy to sit back and watch the Democrats self-immolate, I also believe they are holding off on announcing their Vice President pick until the Democratic nominee is solidified. There’s going to be a significant amount of strategy that goes into Trump’s VP pick: pick someone innocuous because you’re leading or continue on offense? Target minority demographics with a person of color or pick the best person for the job? Find someone who can be as aggressive as Trump or settle for someone who knows how to play the role of second fiddle? I played out a number of these scenarios last month.

Without trying to answer all of these questions, I’m certain I can answer one: if Kamala Harris winds up as the Democratic nominee, Trump must pick Tulsi Gabbard as his Vice President. There is no better option.

Not only is Tulsi world famous for having already beat Kamala to a pulp during the 2020 primary debates…

…but she’s also is extraordinarily intelligent and well spoken…

…and happens to be an active member of the U.S. military and a woman. She didn’t have to do any “favors” to make her way in the political world, she has had the courage to stand up to the most terrifying political force, the Clintons, in 2019 accurately calling Hillary the “personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long”.

Additionally, Tulsi’s long held non-interventionist foreign policy ideas fall in line with Trump’s policy of “let’s just use some common sense and get these global conflicts settled and stop the killing, regardless of who is deemed the ‘winner’”. She has made it clear that avoiding World War 3 is far more important to her than prolonging wars and changing regimes overseas. While Nikki Haley’s lobbyists may not like this, it’s what’s best for the nation.

Photo: The New Yorker

If you’re a Trump strategist, you have to know that Tulsi not only immediately throws a wet blanket over all the independents who would vote for Kamala because she’s a woman, but in my opinion would also be a perfect compliment for Trump’s style. Tulsi could soften Trump’s image up a bit — she is rife with charming moments — but could also help hold the ‘edge’ Trump conducts business, especially foreign policy business, with. At the end of the day Tulsi went to boot camp and, let’s be honest, could probably kick Kamala Harris’ ass in a fight.

But, like Trump, I’m sure she’d rather just emanate ‘peace through strength’. And you can say what you want about that strategy, but it kept us out of wars and kept the world at peace for the 4 years Trump was in office. It’s tough to argue with those results. Aloha, Tulsi!

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