Authored by Jan Jekielek and Masooma Haq via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In what she has called a David versus Goliath battle, New York real estate lawyer Bobbie Anne Cox sued Governor Kathleen Hochul for issuing directives mandating quarantine for people exposed to or infected with highly contagious diseases such as COVID-19. The directives, dubbed “quarantine camp regulations,” have been compared to laws that relocated Japanese during World War II without due process. Cox won the lawsuit on the grounds that Hochul’s regulation was unconstitutional.

In a recent interview on Epoch TV’s American Thought Leaders, Cox told host Jan Jekielek that it’s crucial Americans learn about the U.S. Constitution so that they can prevent similar acts by state and federal governments.

“The constitution is not perfect, but it’s brilliant,” Cox said. Schools should require learning about the U.S. Constitution, “from the little kids all the way up through high school, into college. The constitution was written to keep the government in check. The constitution wasn’t written to keep the people in check.”

Our founding fathers came to this continent fleeing tyranny, Cox said. “They wrote the constitution in such a manner that if it’s followed, there wouldn’t be tyranny on these shores, ever. Yet, here we are, 250 years later, and we’re fighting tyranny.”

It is tyrannical for a government to take power to which it is not entitled, Cox explained. During the pandemic, state and federal governments gave themselves powers the constitution did not give them.

State governors are part of the executive branch of government. As such, she said, “they’re supposed to enforce laws, and their agencies beneath them are supposed to help them enforce laws. They’re not supposed to make laws.”

When a governor such as Hochul takes on powers that properly belong to the legislature, “that’s tyranny,” Cox reiterated.

“The attitude is kind of like, ‘Well, we know we can’t do this, but we’re going to do it anyway.’ And then the theory is, ‘Catch me if you can.’”

Understanding Our Rights

Unconstitutional mandates and regulations have been thrust upon the public, Cox said, because American citizens don’t know their rights. “I think if people understood what their rights are, they would say, ‘Hold on a second, you can’t do that.”

“In the history of mankind, no government has ever taken power from the people, and then just voluntarily given it back.”

Nonetheless, “the people have to demand it back,” Cox said. “The people won’t demand it back unless they know that they have the right to that power. So I think there needs to be an education process in the United States so that people understand, ‘Oh, these are my rights.’”

The Executive Branch Cannot Legislate

At the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns, former Governor Andrew Cuomo was given emergency powers by the New York legislature to implement “directives.” Those emergency powers, according to Cox, essentially gave him legislative powers.

“The legislative branch can’t delegate their lawmaking power to another branch of government, but they did, and for a whole year, Cuomo had this power … He then passed it on to his commissioner of health,” said Cox.

After Cuomo stepped down in August 2021 and Hochul became interim governor, she continued the regulations despite criticism that she was sidestepping the legislature. When Cox learned about this, she was impelled to sue in order to stop the government overreach.

Quarantine Regulation Based on Rejected Bill

Cox sees this type of control by the governor as tyrannical and “wholly unconstitutional” for many reasons, including the fact that the New York legislature rejected the quarantine rule in a bill years before.

“It’s the story of a tyrannical governor and her department of health, doing something that they want to do, but the people don’t want them to do it. And the people’s representatives in the New York state senate and the assembly don’t want them to do it.”

The quarantine camp regulation was based on a bill that was proposed in 2015 by New York state assemblyman Nick Perry (D-Brooklyn) during the Ebola outbreak. The regulation was rejected by the state legislature and withdrawn from consideration, said Cox.

After Cuomo resigned, through a simple vote, Hochul and her advisors issued the directive that ultimately gave the governor and the New York Department of Health the power to lock up anyone they deemed contagious.

“They could have locked you up in your home, or they could have removed you from your home and locked you into a facility of their choosing,” said Cox. There was no restriction on age, proof of sickness or exposure, or time limit to the quarantine.

“There was nothing in the regulation that would allow you to try to negotiate your way out of this,” added Cox, and the regulation does not follow either state or U.S. constitutions because it does not lay out the rights of the person forced into quarantine.

“In the judge’s decision, he actually said [that] this regulation gives lip service to due process,” said Cox. “‘You mention it, but you don’t actually have any due process built in there.’”

“Involuntary detention is a severe deprivation of individual liberty, far more egregious than other health safety measures, such as requiring mask wearing at certain venues,” the court’s opinion read. “Involuntary quarantine may have far-reaching consequences such as loss of income [or employment] and isolation from family.”

The governor’s regulation also conflicted with section 2120 of New York’s public health law, a longstanding regulation. “That tells you how you quarantine somebody if they’re a public health threat,” Cox said. However, the existing law contains multiple due process protections, beginning with a requirement to prove that the individual in question has the disease.

From Real Estate to Constitutional Law

Having worked with clients in property cases against local and state governments, Cox recognized that the government’s mandates were illegal. She said she knew that two weeks of lockdown would not end there.

“I also said to myself, this is completely unconstitutional. He can’t do this. He can’t force people to shut their businesses and stay home,” Cox said.

She immediately started speaking out about the illegitimacy of the lockdowns. She was bombarded by business owners and landlords asking her if the forced closures and rent moratorium were legal, and what they could do to fight back.

“We were seeing small businesses, landlords, people who were just getting decimated by the government.”

Cox started a YouTube channel explaining the rights that the Constitution ensures, but the platform removed her videos. She then moved the channel to Rumble.

Before moving forward with her lawsuit against Hochul, Cox wrestled with the decision to put her business and livelihood on hold. She took the case, convinced that the type of governmental overreach it hoped to stop would spread like “cancer” if not checked.

Getting Ahead of Hochul’s Regulation

Cox did not want to wait until the regulation went into effect and the public was injured by it, so she thought creatively about how to sue and prove the regulation was unconstitutional, she said.

Cox considers herself a Democrat but worked with Republican lawmakers because she believes government overreach is not a partisan issue.

“I’m actually a Democrat … In my mind, this is not a political thing. This is a human rights issue. This is a constitutional issue … This is about being an American, and something people have really forgotten. It’s not people’s fault. I think it’s because we just really don’t teach this in school anymore.”

She asked Senator George Borrello, Assemblyman Chris Tague, and Assemblyman Mike Lawler to join the suit. “They said, ‘Absolutely. We believe in this; we’re going to do it.’”

Ultimately, Cox proved the unconstitutionality of the quarantine camp regulation, but there were many challenges along the way.

Read more here…

Op-Ed by Jerry Hendrix via RealClear Wire,

As the Republican party considers its return to power on Capitol Hill with a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it should consider leaders who have the proper self-discipline, political experience and operational background to guide the party during this time of significant political unrest at home and great power competition abroad. Simply put, with the issues of economic recession, and the erosion law and order at home, and the policy of peace through strength for challenges abroad, as well as when factoring into account the fact that the newer, younger membership of the House on both sides of the aisle includes so many veterans of the recent two decades long Global War On Terror, the Republican House leadership team would be well served to include a veteran amongst its ranks to provide the unique perspective associated with that experience and background.

With the recovery of a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives there will be significant changes in the conservative leadership team in the House. Kevin McCarthy of California, who served as Majority Whip during John Boehner’s term as speaker and then majority leader during Paul Ryan’s tenure, will presumably assume the speaker’s gavel after leading the minority party through the past six years of Democratic Party rule, although there are signs of unrest in the ranks due to disappointments at the polls this past week.

Steve Scalise of Louisiana has served as McCarthy’s whip and loyal deputy over the past six years, including during the painful period following his near assassination from a gunshot wound from a Bernie Sanders supporter in 2017. Scalise will almost certainly be elevated to the role of majority leader as McCarthy mounts the rostrum at the center of the well of the House. This will leave the majority whip’s position open at the beginning of a Congress where every Republican vote will be needed. This will require a strong, disciplined hand at the whip.

It must also be noted, and without prejudice, that neither McCarthy nor Scalise have served in the military. Additionally, neither of them has served on the House Armed Services, Intelligence, Appropriations, Foreign Affairs or Veterans Affairs committees that deal with the issues of national security or their adjacencies. McCarthy’s focus has been largely on the Financial Services Committee while Scalise’s area of expertise has been found within the Energy and Commerce Committee. These are important roles, but they also highlight the fact that both men would be well served to have a colleague in the majority whip’s office who is intimately familiar with the nation’s national security challenges.

The competition for the whip position has already commenced and the candidates overall are strong, well-qualified, and respected amongst the conference.

Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who served as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee through the last election cycle, lacks military or broader national security experience. He worked as a lawyer prior to entering the state legislature and entered the House in 2019. In that capacity he has served, like McCarthy, on the Financial Services Committee. Emmer is a solid fiscal conservative who has consistently sought to rein in government spending. Unfortunately, this pursuit caused him to vote against several critical national security bills that sought to expand defense spending as well as protect the nation’s cybersecurity workforce. These votes as well as his rather unique opposition to President Trump’s reimposition of an economic embargo on Cuba suggests that his approach to national security remains more ideological than pragmatic, and diverges from previous eras of great power competition. Overall, he approaches national security with a lawyer’s legalistic eye rather than a veteran’s instinct for the terrain.

Rep. Drew Ferguson of Georgia currently serves as chief deputy whip for the Republican conference and would normally be seen as the natural successor to Scalise. Ferguson, a dentist, entered the House after a hard-fought election and has served on the powerful Ways and Means Committee since. While Ferguson has been a strong supporter of both military modernization and expansion, aside from a “no” vote on the 2021 NDAA, he also lacks service on one of the relevant national security associated committees in the House and the real-world experience that comes with previous active duty in the military. His elevation to the whip position would leave the House without anyone with the fingerspitzengefühl feel for the national security challenges facing the nation.

This leaves Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana as the last remaining contestant for the whip position.

For transparency’s sake, I should say that Banks represents the district where I grew up, although I have not lived there in nearly forty years, but my people know his people, and that matters. Additionally, we are both Navy veterans, and when we see each other, we share more than a few sea stories.

Banks served in the Indiana state legislature and in the naval reserve, deploying as a logistician to Afghanistan, prior to entering the House in 2017. Since then, he has been elevated to the chair of the Republican Study Committee, the internal think-tank for Minority Leader McCarthy and a font of new ideas. Banks serves on the Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs committees, as well as the Education and Labor Committee, where he has taken a direct and focused interest in strengthening our national security and taking care of our veterans’ community.

Banks has taken a deep interest in the legislative process. It is one thing to vote for a larger Navy, but it is another to author a resolution to build a 426-ship fleet with specific numbers of types of ships assigned to specific strategic objectives. In addition, Banks has either authored or co-sponsored legislation expressly focused on the strategic threat posed by China.

It must be admitted that Banks, in his capacity as the chair of the Republican Study Committee has earned a reputation as a partisan, but the whip position is also a partisan position. However, he has in the past demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle, especially when working with fellow former military members to craft real alternative approaches to our nation’s future defense. He and his staff also have built a reputation for rolling up their sleeves and doing the hard work of crafting real legislation. He is a man of disciplined thought and action, as many veterans are.

The Republican Party is assuredly positioned to return to leadership in the House next year, but it will have only a narrow majority and it will be confronted with many key issues challenging the nation. Jim Banks, with his domestic experience on the Education and Labor Committee, as well as his service on the Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs committees, would substantively add to the Republican House leadership’s policy breadth and depth.

Banks has proven that he can think, act, speak, and lead, and would bring the pragmatic solutions of the Midwest farm country he represents to the House leadership team. Additionally, his addition to the House leadership would be a powerful nod of acknowledgment to the 70-plus veterans who serve in the lower chamber from both parties, a vast majority of whom are young and have served in front line positions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The House Republicans should not pass on the opportunity to place a veteran in leadership.

A freight train derailment and flooding have paralyzed vital transportation networks, completely cutting off Perth and Adelaide from Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. 

Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported dozens of shipping containers scattered across the tracks when a freight train derailed in Victoria’s west on Monday. 

Footage from the incident area shows at least 20 shipping containers piled on top of each other and water beneath the tracks. The location of the crash was about 56 miles from Melbourne. There’s reason to believe months of heavy might have led to track failure. 

The crash has broader implications for the country’s transportation network, as ABC explained:

“It is now blocking the rail line between Melbourne and Adelaide, cutting off Adelaide from the Port of Melbourne.” 

The national broadcaster then pointed out on a map that another critical rail line called Broken Hill was out of order due to heavy flooding, which means: 

“No trains are able to go east to west in the whole country. We were hanging by a single thread, which has now been severed.” 

Here’s a map showing the east-west train connection severed. 

ABC suggests supply chain misery could move even higher as the east-west train lines were already congested before the weather-related disasters. 

The east-west train lines are, according to government statistics, the busiest freight lines in the country. They carry all sorts of goods from Adelaide and Perth to Sydney and Melbourne.

The link between Adelaide and the Port of Melbourne is especially important. Many container ships are extremely large and don’t stop in Adelaide. So South Australia relies on goods being unloaded in Melbourne and brought along the rails. It is a 12-hour journey, usually.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau said it would take time to rebuild the rail line, a possible indication that supply chain disruptions are imminent. 

Despite ABC blaming “climate change,” we must note the heavy rains are due to an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon called La Nina. And remember, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has stated: 

“El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring climate patterns and humans have no direct ability to influence their onset, intensity or duration.” 

What’s likely to happen is all freight that would typically be hauled on rail networks will have to switch to the road, and even then, there will be logistical issues due to a limited supply of trucking availabilities. 

On Monday the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine, now nine months in. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for loss of life. 

The UN resolution states that the Russian Federation “must bear the legal consequences of all its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for injury, including any damage, caused by such acts.”

It further seeks to establish “an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss or injury” as a result of the war, and further calls for an “international register” to document evidence and claims of “damage, loss or injury” to Ukrainians and public buildings and entities.

In a Monday night video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the UN measure, saying: “The reparations that Russia will have to pay… are now part of the international legal reality.”

Western officials have from near the start of the invasion floated the idea of using seized Russian assets abroad due to sanctions enforcement to create a reparations fund for rebuilding Ukraine. 

The Kremlin was quick to condemn the UN resolution: 

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said Russia stands “categorically against” the proposal, adding that Moscow would do “everything possible” to stop the West from seizing its frozen international reserves or “plundering” them to pay for reparations to Ukraine.

The draft resolution passed in the UNGA with a clear majority and will now proceed to the next stage (a Generally Assembly plenary, likely next month). 

Out of 193 members…

• 94 countries voted in favor
• 14 against 
• 73 nations abstained

The breakdown of how countries voted is along familiar geopolitical fault lines…

Member states voting “no” (or a position seen by the West as “in favor of Russia”) …

• The Bahamas
• Belarus
• Central African Republic
• China
• Cuba
• North Korea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Islamic Republic of Iran
• Mali
• Nicaragua
• Russian Federation
• Syrian Arab Republic
• Zimbabwe

Below: the majority of countries (in green) voted “yes” – while many abstained…

Notably India was an absention.

The UN website described the words of Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya as follows, “The Ambassador outlined the impact of the Russian war on his country, including bombings targeting residential buildings and infrastructure, the demolition of nearly half of the power grid and utilities, massive displacement, and atrocities such as murder, rape, torture and forced deportations.”

In considering all of the above war atrocities, one wonders, where was the big Western push at the UN to make Washington pay war reparations over the 2003 “shock and awe” regime change invasion of Iraq, which by some estimates killed up to one million people? 

We have been waiting for the FTX bankruptcy docket to add anything more than merely procedural filings (or any filings for that matter), and certainly the so-called First Day filings which should lay out what really happened at the now bankrupt exchange-cum-hedge fund, but the only thing we have gotten so far is this: just two entries in the docket for a case which the entire world is closely following.

And while the criminal mastermind behind FTX, Bankman-Fried, should at least be doing everything he can to explain where the billion in client funds vaporized to, as he promised…

11) I’ll get to what happened. But for now, let’s talk about where we are today.

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) November 15, 2022

… at least until such time as he is finally arrested (which Elon Musk said will never happen because he is such a prominent Democratic donor), he appears to have little desire to do the right thing, and instead has been trying to salvage an unfixable situation and according to the WSJ, the 2nd largest democrat donor still thinks that he can raise enough money to make users whole.

Bankman-Fried, alongside a few remaining employees, spent the past weekend calling around in search of commitments from investors to plug a shortfall of up to $8 billion in the hopes of repaying FTX’s customers, the WSJ sources said. It wasn’t clear if any proceeds from such fundraising would go into his personal bank account, nor was it clear if he was merely calling other fugitive criminals such as Jho Low who made billions by robbing Malaysia blind with the help of Goldman Sachs, or is simply hoping to find even bigger idiots than his current roster of “erudite” investors.

The WSJ goes on to redundantly notes that the “efforts to cover that shortfall have so far been unsuccessful.” The paper also couldn’t determine what SBF is offering in return for any potential cash infusion, or whether any investors have committed. To be sure, the last thing on SBF’s mind is to transfer some of his well-hidden offshore funds to make those customers who trusted him whole.

Before the chapter 11 filing, Bankman-Fried had spoken to companies including rival crypto exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, plus hedge funds and venture capital investors in the hope of a bailout, according to people familiar with those talks. His largest rival, Binance, agreed briefly to buy FTX, before backing out.

The amount needed to make FTX solvent would likely be multiples of the $1.9 billion the company raised during its existence. FTX’s most recent funding round was in January, when it raised $400 million from a long list of Silicon Valley and Wall Street names, including Tiger Global and SoftBank Group Corp.

In separate news, FTX’s bankruptcy lawyers said the case could involve more than one million creditors: that means there will be a lot of angry people when the Democrat-controlled DOJ announces it has no plans to press charges against one of the most generous (and criminal of course) Democrat donors in history. Because the last thing anyone wants is to tie the money laundering loose ends between Democrats, Ukraine and crypto fund flows over the past year.

Authored by Albert Eisenberg via RealClear Wire,

It was shortly after viewing the clip of the wife of Doug Mastriano – Pennsylvania’s ill-fated Republican nominee for governor – jumping in front of a press conference microphone to tell reporters that they “probably love Israel more than a lot of Jews do” that I thought to myself: Are these people intent on offending the entire electorate before losing?

This moment was emblematic of the Mastriano campaign, one that sincerely aimed to address only the Donald Trump MAGA faithful while competing in the blue-ish state of Pennsylvania. After all, Mastriano had been photographed dressing up as a Confederate soldier while serving as a state senator and had called attempts to ban conversion therapy for LGBT youth “disgusting” – moments practically designed to turn off the large numbers of independent, moderate, and former Republican voters in Pennsylvania crucial to a successful statewide bid.

Jenna Ellis, a national Trump alum advising Mastriano’s campaign, thought it wise to echo this sentiment on Twitter, calling Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro, who has deep ties to the Southeast Pennsylvania Jewish community, “at best a secular Jew.” How on earth could she know that, and why on earth would she say it?

Advice for future candidates: don’t tell minority groups – or any groups – that you are better stewards of their interests than they are.

Maybe there was some explanation behind these moments — but as they say in politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing. What most voters saw of Mastriano was a picture of a bizarre and unlikeable political figure.

I was struck by the odd tone and presence from Mastriano when I moderated a Republican candidates’ forum in Harrisburg in April. With a number of candidates on stage, the dynamic between Mastriano and his sizable cohort of supporters felt oddly like the call-and-response of a preacher to his congregation. It was strange to witness.

This helps explain why Mastriano significantly underperformed the more moderate Mehmet Oz – the Republican U.S. Senate candidate – in Philadelphia’s vote-rich suburbs, where voters lean Democratic but have shown a willingness to split their tickets for Republicans like Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey.

Mastriano trailed Dr. Oz by more than 250,000 votes statewide, losing to Josh Shapiro by 14% and likely bringing multiple state house and congressional races down with him. Just north of Pennsylvania, the opposite occurred, with New York Republican Lee Zeldin putting up an impressive showing in his losing bid for governor, helping the GOP flip at least four congressional seats.

The biggest victims of Mastriano’s candidacy were Republicans running down-ballot for Congress and the state house, which is likely to revert to Democratic control for the first time in years. Incumbent Republican legislators like Todd Stephens in Montgomery County and Todd Polinchock in Bucks County were already facing a more Democratic map with redistricting; though they both outran Mastriano and Oz by significant margins, they appear to have been swallowed up in a mini Blue Wave.

Meanwhile, congressional hopeful Lisa Scheller nearly closed the gap to defeat Democrat Susan Wild in a rematch in Pennsylvania’s swingy Lehigh Valley-based Seventh Congressional District. Scheller outran Mastriano by tens of thousands of votes combined in the key counties of Northampton, Lehigh, and Carbon, but ultimately lost her race by 4,700 votes. Even a middling Republican candidate in the governor’s race would have likely helped her win it, delivering Pennsylvania Republicans a needed victory in an otherwise abysmal cycle. Only so many voters are willing to split their tickets.

Mastriano shared all of Trump’s bad qualities and none of his good ones. He showed bombast and an ability to offend, often needlessly, but notoriously avoided the media, including what should have been friendly outlets like conservative talk radio. He called one Southeast Pennsylvania conservative outlet “left-wing media” and accused it of resorting to “East German” tactics before ending an interview over a question about QAnon, which should have been a lay-up for a competent Republican candidate. He appealed to many of Trump’s diehards, but unlike the former president he made no effort to find new voters in Pennsylvania’s diverse, working-class communities that have moved rightward in recent election cycles. He embraced a Christian conservative playbook on a number of social issues, not just ignoring but angering the gay community. This contrasts with Trump, who waived a Pride flag in 2016.

Mastriano campaigned as an evangelist, not a candidate. His closing message was heartfelt and biblical – an image of a rainbow emerging over a Pennsylvania Trump rally – but not effective for the goal of winning a statewide election here. His message did not translate beyond his core supporters. 

Mastriano’s moment is up, but Pennsylvania Republicans will need to figure out how to field candidates with wider appeal if they wish to avoid another spectacular loss in 2024.

Meal kit delivery service HelloFresh has been accused of using monkey labor to obtain coconut milk in Thailand, according to allegations from the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), which has called for a boycott of the company.

According to a Monday report detailing findings of a PETA investigation into 57 operations across nine Thai provinces, monkeys are chained, whipped, beaten and forced to spend long hours picking coconuts, CBS News reports.

“Monkeys are chained around the neck and forced to toil day in and day out, all for HelloFresh and other companies that lack a conscience,” said PETA Executive VP, Tracy Reiman, in an emailed statement to CBS. “PETA is calling on everyone, including HelloFresh, to stop buying canned coconut milk from Thailand until moneys are no longer used and abused for profit.”

HelloFresh told CBS MoneyWatch that the company receives written assurances from suppliers that monkey labor isn’t used to procure coconuts.

“HelloFresh strictly condemns any use of monkey labor in its supply chain, and we take a hard position of not procuring from suppliers or selling coconut products which have been found to use monkey labor. We have written confirmation from all of our suppliers — in the U.S. and globally — that they do not engage in these practices.”

Brokers to HelloFresh’s coconut milk suppliers showed PETA the monkeys, who were chained on trash-strewn patches of dirt and flooded areas with car tires as their only shelter, according to the animal rights group, which published photos from its investigation as well as video footage.

Most of the monkeys are kidnapped from their families in nature, even though the species exploited by the coconut trade are threatened or endangered, according to the animal-welfare group. -CBS News

Based in Berlin, HelloFresh operates in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K. and the U.S., and had 7.5 million active customers in the third quarter.

Palpable divisions over the war in Ukraine have become apparent at the G20 summit in Bali as the US tries to make the case that Russian aggression is to blame for the global rise in food and fuel, and cost-of-living crisis generally.

Reuters has seen a 16-page draft declaration which the countries have failed to achieve unity on, which stated, “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and aggravating existing fragilities in the global economy.” The US went into the Bali summit announcing that it expects the G20 to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resultant disastrous consequences for the global economy.

And FT says there will be a communique later in the week. “The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital,” the draft reads. “Today’s era must not be of war.”

However, despite a generally positive assessment from both sides concerning Monday’s Xi-Biden meeting, which lasted over three hours and was described as frank and straightforward, China has stuck by its “friendship without limits” declaration with Russia, which has seen Beijing maintain previously that sanctions are “counterproductive” and are being threatened on an “illegal and unilateral” basis. 

It remains that other G20 members, among them summit host Indonesia, as well as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Argentina have also refused to fall in line on imposing anti-Russia sanctions.

While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz joined the US push to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, it remains as Reuters observes that—

G20 ministers’ gatherings have failed to produce joint declarations due to disagreement between Russia and other members on language, including how to describe the war in Ukraine.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the summit in a virtual address that now was the time to stop Russia’s war in his country under a plan he has proposed “justly and on the basis of the UN Charter and international law.”

So this year the “joint G20 communique” will perhaps only serve to highlight the deep division on how to assess the nature of the war in Ukraine. As for the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blasted the attempts at “politicization” of the G20 meeting by Western countries, underscoring their failed attempts to manipulate the communique. 

“Mr Lavrov said Russia had put forward an alternative view, and the draft would be completed on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.

“With Russia’s foreign minister sitting there, we highlighted both the illegality and barbaric nature of Russia’s war”

Speaking from the G20 summit of world leaders, PM Rishi Sunak says “we saw international condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine”https://t.co/3UjskNf3zb pic.twitter.com/G54swL7o1o

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 15, 2022

The UK’s prime minister Rishi Sunak joined his US and German counterparts in saying consensus was building toward open condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

As for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in his address to the body he referenced global supply and food and energy problems without any direct reference to the war, saying according to The New York Times: 

“All countries should replace division with unity,” he said, according to a transcript from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. China, which has an increasingly strong partnership with Russia, has not condemned Moscow’s invasion, but this month Mr. Xi cautioned against “the threat or use of nuclear weapons” in the conflict.

Despite the evident division in approaches, summit host President Joko Widodo of Indonesia urged the nations to “set aside our differences” and find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict. “Being responsible means creating win-win, not zero-sum situations,” he said. “Being responsible here also means that we must end the war.”

Meanwhile, Western officials are still calling the draft communique to be issued a “win”, per the FT:

The communiqué was agreed by country delegates on Monday night after days of wrangling between western officials and those from Russia and China. It will be formally adopted by G20 leaders on Wednesday.

The document’s language “represents quite a diplomatic victory for us”, said a western official involved in the negotiations.

Lavrov told Russian state news agencies that western countries had attempted to “politicise” the communiqué by including an explicit condemnation of Moscow. “But let’s do this in a fair way and let’s make it clear that, on this topic, we have differences,” Lavrov said of the discussions.

Moscow, meanwhile, has charged the US and UK in particular with actively thwarting the possibility of peace by pushing President Zelensky at every turn away from the negotiating table and to double down on the battlefield, also by flooding weapons into the conflict, heightening the potential for direct escalation with NATO.

Just days after the CPI missed across the board sparking a record surge in stocks, moments ago the PPI followed suit when the BLS reported that in October wholesale inflation not only eased across the board but missed every single forecast, with the highlight being the unchanged print in core PPI, a sharp drop from last month’s 0.2% increase and far below the 0.3% forecast. Here is the breadown:

• PPI 0.2% M/M, Exp. 0.4%, Last 0.2% (revised from 0.4%)
• PPI 8.0% M/M, Exp. 8.3%, Last 8.4% (revised from 8.5%)
   
• PPI Core 0.0% M/M, Exp. 0.3%, Last 0.2% (revised from 0.3%)
• PPI Core 6.7% Y/Y, Exp. 7.2%, Last 7.1% (revised from 7.2%)

The YoY increase in headline PPI of 8.0% was the lowest since July 2021, the lowest in over a year.

The energy contribution to PPI continues to shrink, and while services was clearly a major contributor on q YoY basis…

… the services PPI actually posted its first decline since Nov 2020, even as final demand goods rose sequentially.

The index for final demand goods moved up 0.6% in October, the largest advance since a 2.2% rise in June. Most of the October increase can be traced to a 2.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The index for final demand foods advanced 0.5 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy decreased 0.1 percent.

According to the report, more than 60% of the increase in prices for final demand goods is attributable to the index for gasoline, which rose 5.7%. Prices for diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, residential electric power, chicken eggs, and oil field and gas field machinery also advanced. In contrast, the index for passenger cars declined 1.5 percent, while prices for gas fuels and for processed young chickens also fell.

But the big surprise in today’s report was the drop in final demand services fell 0.1% in October, the first decline since moving down 0.2 percent in November 2020. Leading the October decrease, margins for final demand trade services fell 0.5 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved down 0.2 percent. Conversely, the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing increased 0.2 percent.

According to the report, a major factor in the October decrease in prices for final demand services was the index for fuels and lubricants retailing, which fell 7.7%. The indexes for portfolio management, long-distance motor carrying, automobile retailing (partial), and professional and commercial equipment wholesaling also moved lower. In contrast, prices for hospital inpatient care increased 0.8 percent. The indexes for services related to securities brokerage and dealing (partial), apparel wholesaling, and airline passenger services also rose. 

Finally, we note that the pipeline of PPI pain is easing further as intermediate goods inflation eased further, and is about to overtake final demand PPI to the downside, a clear indicator of much more weakness to come.

The data was so bad that, when combined with last week’s CPI, traders are increasingly wondering if after December’s 50bps rate hike (and upcoming dismal NFP report) that will be it from the Fed. Naturally, futures soared on the big PPI miss.

Walmart Surges After Beating Expectations, Boosts Forecast, Unveils New $20BN Buyback

Q3 Earnings season unofficially closed with a bang this morning when retailing giant Walmart reported blowout results, beating across the board, and boosting sales and EPS forecast; specifically, Walmart forecast a smaller then previously forecast fall in annual profit  – it now sees adjusted EPS for the year down 6%-7% versus its prior view of down 9%-11% – as demand for groceries holds up despite higher prices, while discounts on clothing and electronics attract more inflation-hit shoppers to the top U.S. retailer’s stores. The company also demonstrated improved inventory management, and raised its full-year net sales expectations and announced a new $20 billion share buyback plan, pushing its shares up more than 7% in premarket trading.

A quick look at what WMT reported for Q3, which saw beats across virtually every category:

• Revenue $152.81 billion, +8.7% y/y, beating estimates of $147.88 billion
• Adjusted EPS $1.50, beating estimates of  $1.32 (excludes $1.05/Shr from opioid settlements)
  • Total US comparable sales ex-gas +8.5%
  • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +8.2%, beating estimates of +3.46%
  • Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +10%, beating estimates of +7.03%
  • 2-year same store sales stack +17.4%, beating estimates of +13%
  • Walmart-only US comparable ticket +6%, beating estimates of +2.5%
  • Walmart-only US comparable transactions +2.1%
  • Change in US E-Commerce sales +16%, estimate +1.05%

Digging into the details of Walmart’s sparkling comparable sales number, The average ticket was up 6% in the third quarter — no big surprise at a time of high inflation. But transactions rose 2.1%, which is twice the gain from the previous quarter. Wall Street will like that — it’s a sign that shoppers are seeking Walmart out.

Sales of food and other essentials that fill much of Walmart’s shelf space have proved resilient, even as shoppers cut back on discretionary spending amid decades-high inflation. The company’s heavy discounting and focus on keeping prices lower than rivals have also helped it take market share from smaller players. However, those moves have hit the company’s gross profit margins, which tumbled 89 basis points in the third quarter ended Oct. 31.

Some more details on the quarter:

• 3Q Intl Net Sales Hit by $1.5B FX Headwinds
• U.S. 3Q Inventory Increase Relates to Inflation
• Raises Year Outlook on Strong Results for Q3
• New York AG Secured a $3.1B Settlement From Walmart to Combat Opioid Crisis
• The Quarter Included $3.3 Billion Related to Opioid Settlements

Walmart also showed improved inventory positioning vs prior quarters, and reported that 3Q inventory increased 12.4% Y/Y, a sharp improvement from the 25.6% Y/Y at the end of Q2. Walmart enters the holiday quarter with inventories valued at nearly $65 billion, up from about $60 billion three months ago. Speaking on the earnings call, CFO John Rainey said that about 70% of the increase in inventory is due to inflation, not unit volumes. That’s a sign he’s confident that the company is getting a handle on the inventory problem that hammered profit earlier this year as Walmart was forced to offer discounts to move goods such as apparel, electronics and home goods.

Looking ahead, the company’s 2023 forecast was also solid, if a little weaker at the Q4 point:

• The company said it expects fiscal 2023 adjusted earnings per share to fall 6% to 7%, compared to its previous forecast of a 9% to 11% decline.
• Walmart said it expects fiscal 2023 net sales to increase 5.5%, compared to its previous forecast of a 4.5% increase, and above the consensus estimate of 4.19%
• Walmart forecast holiday quarter U.S. same-store sales, excluding fuel, to increase about 3%, below estimates of a 3.4% increase.
• Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to decline 3% to 5%, compared to analysts’ estimates of a 4.5% fall.

Here are the five key take homes from WMT’s results according to Bloomberg:

• Raising the forecast: Walmart improved its full-year profit outlook after a big beat on adjusted EPS during the third quarter. The company now expects EPS to fall only 6% to 7%, compared with the previous forecast that called for a decline of as much as 11%. Shares are up more than 6% in pre-market trading.
• Consumers: Walmart said its forecast “assumes a generally stable consumer in the US, continued pressure from inflation and mix of products and formats globally.” Emphasis on “generally stable consumer”: In other words, the nation’s largest retailer says shoppers are still hanging in there despite inflation.
• Grocery: The retailer says it’s gaining market share, according to third-party data, and comparable sales in the US soared 8.2%. Notably, Walmart said unit volumes in food rose after a slight decline in the previous quarter. The takeaway: More and more US shoppers are going to Walmart for its low prices. The company said last quarter that it was getting more business from higher-income customers, and that seems to be continuing.
• Inventory: Walmart is reining in the surge in stockpiles that has forced it to cut prices on an array of goods this year. Inventory rose only 13% in the quarter compared with last year, a much slower pace than in the last two quarters. And gross margin, a broad measure of profitability, was in line with estimates, signaling that markdowns weren’t worse than expected.
• International: CEO Doug McMillon had particularly kind words for Flipkart, the company’s majority-owned business in India, and Walmex, its operation in Mexico and Central America. Walmart has been paring its international portfolio but those two regions along with China and Canada are still key markets.

As for what Walmart’s results suggest about the broader US economy, on one hand, the sales beat could point to consumer resilience despite growing concerns about recession. But on the other hand, it may indicate that Americans who typically shop at higher-end brands are trading down to Walmart as they seek lower prices.

To ensure the market reaction to its earnings was favorable, the company approved a new $20 billion share buyback authorization, replacing existing program, which had about $1.9 billion remaining at the end of 3Q.

Walmart stock rose more than 7%…

… with the solid results and guidance from WMT also helping push peer retailers higher: Target, Costco and Dollar Tree all climb, with TGT up as much as 3.9%, COST +2.4%, DLTR +2.7%, Macy’s +1.3%.