Authored by Carly Mayberry via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It’s been a year since four Department of Defense (DOD) whistleblowers found a sudden increase in various diseases in the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), which coincided directly with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccinations. Now, new data shows more evidence.

That’s according to Lt. Col.Theresa Long, M.D., MPH, a board-certified aerospace medicine doctor and Army Brigade flight surgeon with specialty training as an aviation mishap investigator and safety officer, who was one of the four whistleblowers. Long’s background has uniquely equipped her to recognize what she described as “unusual diagnoses and alarming trends only after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccinations.”

Sharp Increase in Serious Harm Reports in Pilots: DOD Data

Long said what she has now found has led her to file yet another whistleblower complaint with Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) office. She described this data as “more alarming DMED data” after she “went back into the ‘fixed’ DMED again to look for signals of harm for Army aviation.”

“What I found was a clear signal, that something in 2021 changed the health of service members,” Long told The Epoch Times. She said these signals were consistent with those in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports. But unlike VAERS reports, DMED data showed spikes in the number of diagnoses “made by a healthcare professional within the DOD on service members.”

According to the Military Health System, the DMED provides remote access to a subset of data contained in the Defense Medical Surveillance System (DMSS). The DMSS contains up-to-date and historical data on diseases and medical events (including reportable events) and “is available to authorized users such as U.S. military medical providers, epidemiologists, medical researchers, safety officers or medical operations/ clinical support staff for surveying health conditions in the U.S. military.”

“After querying all pilots across the DOD, for all-cause morbidity and mortality, I found a stunning increase in the number of reportable events, spiking from an average of 226 reportable events a year (2016-2019) to 4,059 reports in 2022,” she explained.

A DOD reportable event is any patient safety event resulting in death, permanent harm, or severe temporary harm—and all require a comprehensive systematic analysis and a follow-on corrective action implementation plan report.

“The point is there is a statistically significant increase in death, permanent harm, or severe temporary harm in young healthy fit pilots,” she continued.

Such injuries were more obviously shown in this population. Because aviation pilots are required to have a superior level of health and fitness, and their health conditions are under more strict monitoring, according to Long.

What spurred Long on to pull this second round of data was when she learned the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had quietly made changes to the acceptable parameters of PR intervals (representative of the first part of a heartbeat, measured in seconds or milliseconds) on electrocardiograms of pilots. The FAA didn’t respond with research and data to support their decision, according to Long.

Those actions led to the press release dated Jan. 27, 2023 from Johnson in a letter to the FAA, where he stated the following details:

“Based on data from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database, the whistleblower [Theresa Long] reported that the total number of disease and injuries [reportable events] in pilots across the DOD was 265 in 2016, 252 in 2017, 164 in 2018, 223 in 2019, 2,194 in 2020, 2,861 in 2021, and 4,059 in 2022.”

Johnson also told The Epoch Times these statistics “raise questions as to whether FAA has seen similar increases in disease and injuries in individuals in the aviation industry.”

Long noted that in the “post-glitch” DMED, the number of reportable events across the DOD had gone from a four-year average (2016-2019) of 40,813 to 110,000 in 2020 to over 200,000 in 2022.

“Some would ask why the numbers start increasing in 2020, you have to remember the Pfizer/DOD study with 43,448 participants started on July 27, 2020.”

Long emphasized that her opinions do not reflect those of the Army or the DOD.

Looking back, she said it was after being stonewalled for answers regarding adverse events from the COVID vaccine that she began performing queries in the DMED. She wanted to know if what she was seeing within her brigade were isolated anomalies or part of a wider disaster unfolding.

Whistleblowers First Report Discrepancies in DOD Data

It was in January of 2022 when Long, along with two other U.S. military doctors, Dr. Samuel Sigoloff and Special Forces flight surgeon Lt. Col. Peter Chambers, and Army Public Health Officer 1 Lt. Mark Bashaw first blew the whistle on the DOD. Together, they filed the initial whistleblower complaints regarding the DMED data, which showed an inordinate amount of negative health-related conditions related to the vaccine.

The initial DMED data given to Johnson showed a massive rise in cases of anxiety, esophageal cancer, breast cancer, female infertility, miscarriages, HIV, acute myocarditis, and Bell’s palsy among other conditions after the vaccine was mandated for U.S. military members.

Long added that after the DMED data was presented, Moderna, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology company behind one of the COVID-19 vaccinations and its mRNA immune response technology, lost $140 billion of dollars in stock.

Yet, despite the alarming data coming directly from the DOD’s own $42 million medical surveillance database, the department’s official claimed that the discovery of the data was a “data glitch” and proceeded to take the database offline, supposedly “fixing” it.

As reported in The Epoch Times, the DOD claimed that the data in DMED was incorrect for the years 2016-2020, but the 2021 number was not affected. The corrected data saw the data for prior years increased, which made the 2021 data look normal.

After Long handed over the documents to DOD, it took officials 47 days to formulate a response to the data, only to explain it was a surprise to them. 

Based on the previous DOD data, “the cluster of medical conditions represents a dramatic shift in the acuity of medical conditions we normally see,” said Long, noting that the data is “so catastrophic,” at the very least when those numbers came out, the military would reflexively pause everything and investigate.

“They didn’t pause anything and it took them [the DOD] a month to complete their sham investigation.” She said. “It’s a gross indictment and dereliction of duty.”

“We introduce a brand new drug into our very healthy population and the surveillance people aren’t even paying attention to their own $42 million-a-year system?” asked Long, who noted that during her 30 years in the Army, many of which she served as a doctor, she and other colleagues never heard of such a database provided by the system’s contractor Ussiant until 2019. “Don’t you think introducing a drug that was rushed to an entire fighting force would make it a top priority that the surveillance system is working?”

Long also asked why, if the DMED just had a “glitch” during the COVID pandemic, no one is being held accountable for this egregious medical surveillance system failure. Long’s attorney, Todd Callender, noted the DOD failed to produce a single expert IT witness that would testify under oath that the shocking data was just a “glitch.”

“So if the data was that alarming, why didn’t anyone in the Defense Health Agency (DHA) sound the alarm or catch the ‘glitch,’” she continued. “How did they not see this huge spike in serious medical problems?”

Another question arises as to why military doctors like Long have not received any communication regarding this spike in reportable events, which wasn’t just limited to pilots but also general officers and those in the Special Forces.

“I was notified to comb over our inventory after a risk management alert notification alerted me to two defective earplugs found at Fort Sill, Okla.” Long said, “But I can’t even get them to send out an alert saying ‘Hey your pilots might get myocarditis from the vaccine.’”

For this story, The Epoch Times reached out for comment from Director of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, the Office of the Surgeon General, and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for comment.

‘I Can’t Un-see the Things I’ve Seen’

These new developments come as more physicians and patients have spoken out about a growing number of vaccine injuries while the science and research literature has simultaneously validated their claims and concerns.

Long said she was not only ignored but received threats against her career after speaking up. That’s because no action was taken on the part of military leaders to fully investigate the number and scope of adverse medical events that she, Sigoloff, Chambers, and Bashaw initially brought to their attention.

“When I found the DOD data, they pulled my credentials and took all my patients off my schedule,” said Long, noting that only left her more time to thoroughly look into the data.

While Long continues to add to her count of personally witnessed vaccine injuries, she also waits for a response from government officials with her latest filing.

Since she first came forward, she has also given testimony to the Idaho Legislature and at the Alaska Medical Freedom Symposium. Appearing recently on Fox News’ Tucker Carlson Tonight, she spoke about the FAA’s change in health requirements that significantly broaden the electrocardiogram range for pilots and allows those with cardiac injury damage to fly.

“In the light of emerging and overwhelming data showing cardiac damage from COVID and COVID vaccines on cardiac muscle, I can’t imagine why they would make this move and I think it’s a question that really should be taken to Dr. Susan Northrup, senior flight surgeon for the FAA,” Long told Carlson.

Read more here…

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

The online community has expressed bewilderment over how China’s crypto ban aligns with the United States’ proclaimed principles of freedom…

The cryptocurrency community has ridiculed well-known Bitcoin critic Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, for calling the United States to follow in the footsteps of China and ban crypto.

In an op-ed article in The Wall Street Journal, the 99-year-old investment veteran has once again slammed crypto, calling a cryptocurrency a “gambling contract with a nearly 100% edge for the house.”

Munger also said that a cryptocurrency is “not a currency, not a commodity, and not a security,” adding that “obviously” the U.S. should enact a new federal law that would ban crypto.

According to Munger, the best way to approach crypto is to follow the example of China, which put a blanket ban on crypto in September 2021.

The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman stated:

“What should the U.S. do after a ban of cryptocurrencies is in place? Well, one more action might make sense: Thank the Chinese communist leader for his splendid example of uncommon sense.”

The community was quick to react to Munger’s latest anti-crypto arguments, with many expressing bewilderment about how measures like China’s crypto ban stack up with the United States’ proclamations that it supports freedom.

“The battle lines are being drawn. Freedom or tyranny. Non-custodial wallets are the hill we can’t surrender,” NFT APE author Adam McBride wrote on Twitter.

Others also mocked Munger for not understanding that crypto is virtually unbannable.

Indeed, even after “banning” crypto in 2021, China has continued to be the second-largest Bitcoin miner in the world, and possessing crypto is apparently still legal.

Moreover, the idea of lifting the crypto ban has been floating around in China for a while.

It’s sad that Charlie munger believes he’s doing something by calling for a ban. Doesn’t understand it’s math and can’t be banned. Old age deteriorates critical thinking skills.

— 941 (@level941) February 2, 2023

Given that Munger called cryptocurrency a “gambling contract,” it’s worth noting that gambling is legal under U.S. federal law, despite people losing significant money from it.

According to data from the American Gaming Association, U.S. casinos and mobile gaming apps hit a record $54.93 billion in revenue during the first 11 months of 2022. The revenues came at the cost of Americans losing more money on gambling than ever before by the first quarter of 2022.

Many European countries also allow at least some gambling, with about 420,000 British gamblers losing more than $2,000 per year.

Despite casinos causing significant losses for investors, Europe and the U.S. have not followed in the footsteps of China, which banned most forms of gambling back in 1949.

Despite the stock, bond, and crypto turmoil last year, Italian supercar maker Ferrari posted full-year profits up 13% year-over-year and revealed an even stronger outlook for 2023. The CEO said robust supercar sales were fueled by “persistently high demand for our products worldwide.” 

For the fourth quarter, Ferrari reported earnings per share of $1.33 from sales of $1.5 billion. Wall Street analysts were satisfied with the earnings. 

“Last year ended with outstanding financial results that met and exceeded our guidance and set new records across all metrics, such as a net profit of €939M and an industrial free cash flow generation of €758M. These figures provide the base for an even stronger 2023, fueled by a persistently high demand for our products worldwide.” 

“Despite a complex global macro scenario, we look ahead with great confidence, encouraged by the many signs and achievements of an evolving Ferrari,” CEO Benedetto Vigna said. 

Ferrari shipped an impressive 13,221 vehicles in 2022, up 19% from 2021. This was a new record for the company. 

US-listed shares of Ferrari were up nearly 5% in premarket trading. Shares traded near 2021 highs. 

Analysts from Credit Suisse were surprised by the strong 2023 outlook. Morgan Stanley analysts said the guidance was solid and supportive. 

Ferrari is bucking the trend as the overall auto industry wanes. High-interest rates have sparked an affordability crisis, while average folks with high monthly car payments struggle to service their debts. 

What’s impressive with robust Ferrari sales and a strong outlook for this year is that demand has yet to be impacted by market turmoil. Last fall, we noted that “crypto bros” were panic-selling G-Wagons and McLarens while Bitcoin tumbled to a low of $15,500. 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden met at the White House on Wednesday to discuss the debt ceiling, and spending cuts which are set to become major points of contention in the coming weeks.

“I thought it was a very good discussion. We walked out saying we will continue that discussion. And I think there is an opportunity to come to an agreement, and I think that’s the best thing,” McCarthy told reporters following the one-hour discussion.

McCarthy refused to state which areas Republicans are focusing on for cuts, or when he would announce their plan – and that ‘negotiating in public’ won’t help in reaching an agreement. The only thing McCarthy did say was that cuts to Medicare and Social Security are not on the table.

Biden, meanwhile, said of the meeting: “Let’s start treating each other with respect, that’s what Kevin and I are going to do.”

More via The Epoch Times:

The United States is close to exceeding its statutory debt ceiling, and Republicans are using the occasion to highlight the rapidly increasing federal debt and call for spending cuts.

The debt ceiling is the amount of debt Congress has authorized the federal government to have at one time.

Since the United States has operated on a deficit budget in all but four years since 1970, continued borrowing is essential to meet the country’s financial obligations.

The current ceiling is approximately $31.4 trillion, set 13 months ago.

“If we continue the trajectory that we’re in for the next 10 years, we’ll spend $8 trillion just on interest [on the national debt],” McCarthy said.

“The greatest threat to America is our debt. Our debt is now 120 percent of GDP, meaning our debt is larger than our economy.”

Setting Expectations

Prior to the meeting, both leaders attempted to define the terms of the discussion.

Biden characterized increasing the debt ceiling as a non-negotiable requirement for maintaining the integrity and economic stability of the United States.

“I will not let anyone use the full faith and credit of the United States as a bargaining chip,” Biden said on Jan. 26 while making remarks on the economy in Springfield, Virginia.

A White House memo released on Jan. 30 reiterated the president’s position.

“As the president has said many times, the United States must never default on its financial obligations. Raising the debt ceiling is not a negotiation; it is an obligation of this country and its leaders to avoid economic chaos,” the memo stated.

As vice president, Biden was involved in negotiations in 2011 when House Republicans demanded that President Barack Obama make deficit reductions in exchange for an increase in the debt ceiling.

The showdown prompted volatility in financial markets and caused the credit rating of the United States to be reduced for the first time in history.

The two sides eventually agreed on an increase in the debt ceiling accompanied by a deficit reduction. But the confrontation hardened Biden’s resolve to never again negotiate over the debt ceiling, a White House staffer reportedly told NBC News.

McCarthy has repeatedly said that he would not refuse to raise the debt ceiling but would ask the president to agree to reduce runaway spending.

“Look, there will not be a default,” McCarthy said on Face the Nation Sunday. “But what is really irresponsible is what the Democrats are doing right now, saying you should just raise the limit.”

After today’s meeting, McCarthy was more emphatic about reducing the national debt.

“The one thing I do know is our debt is too high. We have waste in our government. And we need to sit down together in a responsible will put us on a path to balance that will make the future of America stronger into the next century.”

A Successful Start

McCarthy’s goal for the meeting was to begin negotiations, which he believes was accomplished.

“I’ve just walked out having an hour conversation with this president, that I tell you from my perspective was a good conversation. No agreements, no promises except that we will continue this conversation,” McCarthy said.

He did acknowledge that the two are not yet close to making a deal.

“We have different perspectives. But we both laid out some of our vision of where we want to go, and I believe after a while, we can find common ground.”

The United States would have exceeded its current debt ceiling on Jan. 19 but for “extraordinary measures” taken by Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen to keep the government solvent.

Yellen estimated that would keep the nation below the ceiling until sometime in June.

McCarthy is hopeful that he and Biden can come to an agreement sooner than that. “I told the president I would like to see if we can come to an agreement long before the deadline so we can start working on other things.”

To accomplish that goal McCarthy said he will look for ways to compromise through discussion and negotiation.

“I think this is exactly how the government in America is designed because you have to find a compromise. The American people made the decision to have the Republicans in control in the house.

“Democrats have a small majority of the Senate, and the Democrats have a president. But we’re all Americans. We all have to work together.”

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s corporate empire is crumbling. A deeper selloff forced Adani Enterprises Ltd. to pull a stock sale in the final minute. Two banks have rejected bonds tied to Adani companies as collateral for client trades. And the turmoil has pushed MSCI India Index to the brink of a technical correction. 

Adani Enterprises plunged 27% on Thursday in Mumbai trading after it was revealed late Wednesday that it abandoned a $2.4 billion follow-on share sale. Today’s losses added to a 28% tumble in the previous session.

The decision to pull the share offering comes as more than $100 billion in market cap has been wiped out in Adani group’s stocks following a scathing report from Hindenburg Research last Tuesday. Dollar bonds tied to the companies are also plunging into the distressed territory, raising the risk of default. 

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse designated a zero lending value for bonds sold by Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Green Energy, and Adani Electricity Mumbai. Now Citi’s wealth management arm has done the same. 

The meltdown in Adani shares has significant implications for Indian stocks:

“This is potentially a bigger problem for Indian equities, which have done so well during the pandemic as China pursued its Covid Zero policy.”

“The long-term ramifications could be quite negative,” said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark. 

Bloomberg added: 

The implosion of the Adani companies, which accounted for almost one out of every $10 invested in Indian stocks at the group’s peak in September, has provided a catalyst for investors complaining about the nation’s expensive valuations to trim their holdings. The fallout is likely to make it harder for other Indian corporations to raise funds, put them under increased regulatory scrutiny, while also testing the faith voters have in Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The turmoil has helped push MSCI India Index to the brink of a technical correction. 

Meanwhile, global funds have yanked a net $2 billion out of Indian equities in the three days through Tuesday. Funds are selling now, and asking questions later. 

“The Adani-related headlines are generating a high level of negative attention, which could dampen investor appetite for Indian stocks,” said Jian Shi Cortesi, who manages China and Asia equity funds at GAM Investment Management in Zurich.

One major risk we see is the deterioration in access to financing for Adani companies, some of which are highly leveraged. 

Even after the latest slide in Adani group shares, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nitin Chanduka believes there is more downside ahead. 

In a mirror image of the dovish BOE earlier this morning, which hiked 50bps but signaled that its tightening cycle may well be over sending sterling and gilt yields sliding, moments ago the ECB, which continues to believe erroneously that if only it can crash the European economy it will somehow have control over Russian commodity prices, hiked interest rates by 50bps, as expected.

We raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points.

See our latest monetary policy decisions https://t.co/m4C5jKNH0j pic.twitter.com/EopgGBQEcE

— European Central Bank (@ecb) February 2, 2023

Also in a dovish twist of forward guidance, the central bank also said intends to hike another 50bps in March, and only then will it “evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.” This is actually dovish because in December’s press conference Lagarde flagged that we could see as many as three more 50bp hikes… not any more. Here is the statement:

“In view of the underlying inflation pressures, the Governing Council intends to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in March and it will then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy. Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. In any event, the Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.”

Compare this to December, when the ECB expected “to raise [rates] significantly further, because inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above the target for too long”. It also said that “rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace” and future decisions will “be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach ” In December its outlook was “euro area economy may contract in the current quarter and the next quarter, owing to the energy crisis, high uncertainty, weakening global economic activity and tighter financing conditions.” adding that “a recession would be relatively short-lived and shallow ” Ahead “growth [was] projected to recover as the current headwinds fade.”

Breaking down the statement, let’s look at Guidance first:

• Governing Council judges that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target
• The Governing Council intends to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in March and it will then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.
• Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach

… and QT (as a reminder, in December, the APP portfolio will decline by €15 billion per month on average from the beginning of March until the end of June 2023, and the subsequent pace of portfolio reduction will be determined over time):

• Remaining reinvestment amounts will be allocated proportionally to the share of redemptions across each constituent programme of the APP and, under the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), to the share of redemptions of each jurisdiction and across national and supranational issuers.
• In particular, the remaining reinvestments will be tilted more strongly towards issuers with a better climate performance. Without prejudice to the ECB’s price stability objective, this approach will support the gradual decarbonisation of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

And while it is of secondary important, the most hilarious part in the statement was the ECB’s disclosure of what can only be dubbed Climate QE, to wit:

For the Eurosystem’s corporate bond purchases, the remaining reinvestments will be tilted more strongly towards issuers with a better climate performance. Without prejudice to the ECB’s price stability objective, this approach will support the gradual decarbonisation of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Yup: just when you thought the idiots in charge of the ECB couldn’t shock us any more, they go ahead and totally redeem themselves.

What happened next?

Well, in wake of the ECB policy announcement, where a 50bp hike was delivered as expected, a marked dovish reaction has been seen given the dialling down of the hawkish language from December. In December’s press conference Lagarde flagged that we could see as many as three more 50bp hike (i.e the February. March and May meetings): however in the February statement the language has now been altered to guide participants towards a 50bp hike in March and thereafter the ECB will “evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.”

Looking at market, the Mar 2023 bund spiked from 137.91 to an eventual session peak of 138.62 with the accompanying 10yr yield dropping from 2.21% to 2.15%. Given the pronounced EGB move, USTs and Gilts have also rallied with USTs at a fresh session high of 115.25.

In FX, the EUR/USD also came under immediate pressure falling from 1.0988 to 1.0961. before trimming back around half of the move as we await further commentary and guidance from President Lagarde and any fresh insights into the ongoing debate between the ECB’s hawks and doves, particularly on core inflation and the possibility for a step-down from 50bp increments to 25bp at a post-March meeting.

While ‘soft’ survey data (and hard industrial data) have disappointed recently, the last few months have seen an oddly positive surge in labor market indications, serially outperforming analysts’ expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

From initial claims (near record lows) to JOLTS (near record highs) to ADP (slowing pace of job additions but “because of the weather”) and of course BLS (which refuses to stop trending higher), establishment indications of the labor market are anything but what The Fed wants to see from its mammoth rate-hikes… especially in the face of massive layoffs that have spread from some of the larger tech companies to more industrial (FedEx as the latest example).

For example, this morning’s initial claims print tumbled to its lowest since April 2022 (near its record lows)…

Completely decoupling from the ‘tightening monetary policy plan’ of The Fed…

Kentucky and California (you mean where all the major layoffs have been concentrated?) saw the largest drop in jobless claims while Georgia and New York saw the biggest jump in jobless claims last week…

All of which is a long-winded way to get to a discussion of today’s labor market data, from Challenger, Gray & Christmas which showed US employers in January announced the most job cuts since 2020.

Businesses reported 102,943 cuts in the month, more than twice those announced in December and up 440% from January 2022. The technology sector made up 41% of the planned reductions…

For some context, can you see the odd one out in the chart below…

“We’re now on the other side of the hiring frenzy of the pandemic years,” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., said in a statement.

“Companies are preparing for an economic slowdown, cutting workers and slowing hiring.”

There is one caveat to all this real world carnage, these laid off workers are receiving solid severance packages (during which they cannot claim jobless benefits), but remember these are the highest-paid employees of the stack… if/when they stop spending, who do you think takes the hit and at what scale…

And are the folks who are getting laid off above to find a new job within the 3m+ severance periods that they are getting? pic.twitter.com/S697kohJq3

— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) February 2, 2023

So, if you want to believe in the B(L)S, that’s fine, but as even Goldman Sachs admitted recently, both claims and JOLTS data is misrepresenting the underlying economic reality in an overly cheerful manner.

While the world and his pet rabbit is now sold (by Powell) on ‘peak Fed’, we wonder at what point does the establishment unleash the real picture of the labor market, that will then ‘allow’ The Fed to shift tone from ‘higher for longer’ to ‘shit, we need rate-cuts or the world will end?’

Maybe the market is on to something after all…

Or has the world changed?

Layoffs will become more and more common

Companies realize they can do more with fewer employees pic.twitter.com/SFUEZKakRH

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) February 1, 2023

Cough… ChatGPT… cough

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

On January 17, the Saudi minister of finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, announced that the Saudi state is open to selling oil in currencies other than the dollar. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV.

If the Saudi regime does indeed embrace substantial trade in currencies other than the dollar as part of its oil-export business, this would signal a shift away from the dollar as the dominant currency in global oil payments. Or measured another way, this would signal the end of the so-called petrodollar.

But how large of a shift is this? With the increasingly frequent Saudi comments about trading in nondollar currencies, we’ve also seen an increasing number of pundits announcing the “collapse” of the dollar or the imminent implosion of the dollar’s currently outsized global power.

Will a shift away from the dollar in the global oil trade really lead to a big relative decline in the dollar? Probably and eventually. But a number of other dominoes would need to fall first, most especially the domino we call “Eurodollars.”

On the other hand, it would be foolish to simply dismiss the potential end of the Saudi preference for the dollar with hand-waving. The end of the petrodollar would indeed weaken the dollar, even if this would not be a mortal blow in itself. Moreover, it is especially foolhardy to ignore the status of the petrodollar because that status also has geopolitical implications. Saudi comments on the dollar signal that the Saudis no longer consider its alliance with the United States to be as important as it has been since the 1970s. What’s not an immediate economic problem for the US regime or the dollar may nonetheless be an immediate geopolitical problem.

In context, probably the best way to look at the potential end of the petrodollar is to see it as one piece of the dollar-based portion of the global economy. Since the 1950s, the dollar has experienced an immense amount of support in terms of global trade and investment and in terms of dollar reserves held by foreigners. This has greatly propped up demand for US debt and for dollars, and this has had enormous disinflationary effects in the domestic US economy. That is, newly created dollars are soaked up by foreigners who both want and need dollars to pay off dollar-denominated debt and to pad bank reserves. But if global dollar dominance truly is in decline, we could potentially expect both higher domestic price inflation and higher interest rates than what Americans have become accustomed to over the past thirty years. In other words, as the dollar declines, the US regime will no longer be able to monetize debt and heap up immense new deficits without fear of high price inflation or falling Treasury prices. The end of the petrodollar is not a reason to panic right now, but it is the latest sign that the US regime’s power via the dollar is being reined in.

What Is the Petrodollar?

The petrodollar is the result of US efforts to secure access to Middle Eastern oil while also lessening the slide of the dollar in the early 1970s.

By 1974, the US dollar was in a precarious position. In 1971, thanks to profligate spending on both war and domestic welfare programs, the United States could no longer maintain a set global price for gold in line with the Bretton Woods system established in 1944. The value of the dollar in relation to gold fell as the supply of dollars increased as a byproduct of growing deficit spending. Foreign governments and investors began to lose faith in the dollar.

In response to these developments, Richard Nixon announced that the US would abandon the Bretton Woods system. The dollar began to float against other currencies. Not surprisingly, this devaluation did not restore confidence in the dollar. Moreover, the US had made no effort to rein in deficit spending. So the US needed to continue to find ways to sell government debt without driving up interest rates. That is, the US needed more buyers for its debt. Motivation for a fix grew even more after 1973, when the first oil shock further exacerbated the deficit-fueled price inflation Americans were enduring.

But by 1974, the enormous flood of dollars from the US into Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter, suggested a solution. Nixon secured an agreement in which the US would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment as well. In return, the Saudis would use their dollars to purchase US Treasurys and help finance US budget deficits.

From a public finance point of view, this appeared to be a win-win. The Saudis would receive protection from geopolitical enemies, and the US would get a new place to unload large amounts of government debt. Moreover, the Saudis could park their dollars in relatively safe and reliable investments in the United States. This became known as “petrodollar recycling.” By spending on oil, the US was creating new demand for US debt and US dollars.

As time went on, thanks to Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the dollar’s dominance was extended to OPEC overall, which meant that the dollar became the preferred currency for oil purchases worldwide.

This petrodollar arrangement proved to be especially important in the 1970s and 1980s, when Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries controlled more of the oil trade than they do now. It also closely tied US interests to Saudi interests, ensuring US enmity toward the kingdom’s traditional rivals, such as Iran.

The Petrodollar Is a Type of Eurodollar

In terms of its economic role, however, the petrodollar has always just been a type of Eurodollar.

What is a Eurodollar? According to Robert Murphy:

The term Eurodollar actually refers to any US dollar-denominated deposit held at a financial institution outside of the United States, or even a USD deposit held by a foreign bank within the US. It thus has nothing to do with the euro currency, and is not restricted to dollars held in Europe; they are dollar deposits that are not subject to the same regulations as US dollars held by American banks, nor are they guaranteed by FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) protection (and hence they tend to earn a higher rate of return).

The trade in Eurodollars is huge, although it’s difficult to quantify exactly how huge. One estimate puts Eurodollar assets at around $12 trillion. For context, we can consider that all assets in US banks total about $22 trillion. Or put another way, “offshore dollar banking now amounts to about half of the US total.” So, the Eurodollar economy is very large, and this “dollar zone” is also a key component of many of the world’s leading economies, given that half or more of the world economy lies in that zone.

In contrast, in 2020, the petrodollar trade amounted to less than $3.5 trillion annually. That’s not insignificant, of course, but even a sizable reduction in this amount will not on its own cause global demand for the dollar (relative to other currencies) to collapse. With so many trillions in dollar-denominated loans floating around the global economy, the petrodollar remains only a piece of a larger pie.

Nevertheless, we could also conclude that the end of the petrodollar is part of a larger and important trend away from the dollar. The relative size of the Eurodollar market has decreased since 2008, dropping from a peak of 87 percent of the size of the US banking system to under 60 percent. Meanwhile, the share of US dollars in the reserves of foreign central banks has fallen, dropping from 71 percent twenty years ago to 60 percent today. This is a twenty-five year low. Russia, China, and India all have shown interest in freeing the global economy from the dollar.

Even if this trend continues, demand for the dollar will most certainly not disappear next week or next month, or next year. There is still a hoard of trillions of dollars’ worth of dollar-denominated debt in the global economy, and—for now, at least—that means continuing demand for dollars. Moreover, the dollar remains one of the safest currencies to keep on hand, given that the central banks in Japan, Europe, the United Kingdom and China, are hardly embracing “hard money.” Given that the US economy remains enormous, and US Treasurys remain at least as safe as other regimes’ bonds, foreigners will still keep a lot of dollars on hand to buy American assets. This is also true because—in spite of the myth that “America doesn’t make anything anymore”—foreigners also buy US products and services.

This certainly doesn’t mean everything is just fine for the dollar, though. A movement away from the dollar—even in slow motion—will mean a rising cost of living for Americans. With fewer foreigners holding on to dollars, the US regime’s current runaway monetary inflation will create more domestic price inflation. In other words, movement away from the dollar will mean the US regime must engage in less monetization of the nation’s debt if it wishes to avoid runaway inflation. It also likely will lead to a need to pay higher interest rates on US government bonds, and that will mean a need for more taxpayer money to service the debt. It will mean that  it will become more difficult for the US regime to finance every new war, program, and pet project that Washington can think up.

The Geopolitics of the Petrodollar

The more obvious short-term effects of the move away from the petrodollar will be in geopolitics rather than in the currency order. In addition to signaling that it is no longer wedded to the dollar, Saudi Arabia has also recently announced its openness toward Russia and a willingness to join the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) nations. This shift in strategic interests for Saudi Arabia potentially poses an immediate threat to US strategic interests, in that the US regime has become accustomed to dominating the entire Persian Gulf region through the US’s Saudi ties. A Saudi turn away from the petrodollar will magnify this shift. That will be enough to further threaten the American standard of living, but not enough in itself to end the dollar. After all, the pound sterling did not cease to exist after its own fall from its vaunted position as the preferred global reserve currency. But it did become far less powerful. The dollar is headed in the same direction.

The prices of luxury items, more specifically pre-owned watches, soared during the early day of the virus pandemic as central banks injected trillions of dollars into the economy. By early 2022, central banks reversed course, tightening monetary conditions, which led to panic in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrency. In late spring last year, we pointed out that mounting macroeconomic headwinds were beginning to cool luxury watch demand, and ‘boom times’ were over. 

Recall some of our commentary on the watch market throughout last year:

• Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools
• “Boom Time Over”: Rolex Prices Crash In China
• Rolex, Patek, And Audemars Piguet Watch Prices Continue Drop As Crypto Winter Worsens

After double-digit declines in some timepieces, we even asked: Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?

But that might not be the case as demand continues to sour. The latest sign of worsening trouble for the watch industry is the world’s largest marketplace, Chrono24 GmbH has reduced its workforce by 13%, eliminating about 65 jobs. 

The reductions underscore the losses faced by dealers who purchased expensive watches during an unprecedented price surge in 2021 and early 2022. Since then, values for the most desirable models have plunged on secondary markets and on resale platforms such as Chrono24.

The decline in second-hand prices for the top brands has been linked to rising inflation, slowing economic growth in the US and Europe and the crash in cryptocurrencies. The bursting of the crypto bubble erased paper profits for some investors who had turned to luxury watches as a new speculative asset class.

The supply of previously rare pre-owned watches on secondary markets has also increased significantly, driving down values. –Bloomberg 

Speaking on watch market gyrations, Chrono24’s co-CEO Tim Stracke said:

“We have seen very volatile, you could call it a roller-coaster situation, in the industry,”

Latest data from the Subdial50 index, an index tracking the top 50 most traded second-hand luxury watches on the pre-owned market, has slid nearly 33% in 12 months. 

Some of the watches in Subdial50. 

The secondary luxury watch market might bottom when central banks reverse course, but judging rates markets, the Federal Reserve might not pivot until late ’23, if not next year. 

Authored by Mandiner via Remix News,

Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets represents a new level of support the U.S. should not entertain…

Very shortly after the announcement of the decision to supply Western tanks, the Ukrainian leadership came up with the idea that it now wants F-16 aircraft.

A fighter-bomber is a completely different category in every respect than the weapons promised and/or delivered so far.

Let’s start with the price. The F-16 costs between $13 million and $80 million, depending on the version, and its operating cost per hour flown is between $7,000 and $20,000. In light of the above, it can be seen that the air force is clearly the most expensive of the modern armed forces.

And this begs the question: What would be the purpose of these machines? Air superiority?

For a modern fighter aircraft flying twice the speed of sound, i.e., Mach 2, a runway 1.5-2 kilometers long is essential. A runway is a large and immovable target, just like the Russian supply bridges. Ukrainian air defenses, already struggling, would thus have to defend additional targets.

In addition, a significant and well-trained ground support staff is required for jet fighters because, like all Western technology, the F-16 has significant maintenance requirements.

This begs yet another question:

If they wanted modern fighters, why didn’t they ask for Swedish Gripen fighters, which can operate from improvised airfields, as opposed to F-16s?

According to an article in Business Insider in December, Russia has so far deployed over 770 modern fighter-bombers of the fourth generation or higher to Ukraine, out of the nearly 1,200 available. To succeed against this significant number, Ukraine would need hundreds more combat vehicles. Let’s face it, the chances of this are extremely slim.

And this raises a question to which we have no good and/or morally acceptable answer. What is NATO’s plan? More precisely: What is the plan of the current U.S. leadership, because Europe is irrelevant, militarily insignificant.

Getting away with defending Ukraine on the cheap? Not provoking the Russians too much? If Ukraine’s victory is so important, and some, like Denmark, are already acting at the expense of their own defense capabilities — why did they not hand over the assets constantly demanded for Ukraine’s defense earlier, say at the beginning of the conflict? As a reminder, the Danes donated all 19 of their French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine without reimbursement.

The prerequisite of any consistent military equipment support to Ukraine — whatever the numbers so far — should be to clearly define the strategic objective NATO (and more pertinently, the United States) has regarding the war and the two countries involved in it. We have yet to see that definition.