The death toll from the Dnipro apartment strike, which happened Saturday afternoon as the latest weekend Russian aerial attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure unfolded, has risen to at least 44 killed, including four children. An additional 79 people were injured, with reports that many residents are still missing and unaccounted for.

The city’s mayor, Borys Filatov, issued the update on Tuesday after two days of rescue workers frantically trying to pull people from the rubble. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Moscow for the attack which he called a “war crime”, vowing justice for the large number of civilian casualties.

The Dnipro strike now ranks among the single deadliest attacks of the entire war. “The rescue operation, the demolition of the rubble, will not end until the bodies of all the dead are found,” deputy head of the presidency Kyrylo Tymoshenko said.

But on Monday the Kremlin vehemently denied that it targeted and struck a civilian residential building in Dnipro, instead pointing to the likelihood of a Ukrainian anti-air missile falling on the building: 

“The Russian armed forces do not strike residential buildings or social infrastructure, they strike military targets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, before referring to the “conclusion of some representatives of the Ukrainian side” that the strike could have been caused by air defense.

Kiev responded by emphasizing the strike was “direct” and not the result of one of its own errant missiles. However, there has been division and controversy in the Ukrainian response, as noted by Peskov’s statement.

An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky actually initially said the apartment block in Dnipro was hit by an errant Ukrainian anti-air defense missile which had been fired in an attempt to intercept an inbound Russian rocket. The presidential aide, Oleksiy Arestovych, unleashed immediate controversy and anger from fellow officials in making the public remarks which aired live on a national television broadcast, and which were picked up in Russian media.

Ukraine officials say the rocket was a Kh-22, and argued that its forces lack the capability to shoot down this particular projectile. In the wake of the controversial statements Arestovych apologized to the nation and stepped down:

“I wrote a letter of resignation. I want to set an example of civilized behavior. A fundamental mistake means resignation,” Oleksiy Arestovych, posted on Facebook alongside a photo of his resignation letter.

Arestovych said further he made “a serious mistake, made during a live broadcast” in the initial TV interview with those comments. “I sincerely apologize to the victims and their relatives, the residents of the Dnipro and everyone who was deeply wounded by my premature error version of the reason the Russian missile hit a residential building,” he added.

But he also still sought to defend himself to some degree, saying, “The level of hate directed at me is incomparable with the consequences of the on-air mistake,” and said his apology was not issued specifically toward “the people who are spinning this issue.”

Below are the brief comments from the interview which unleashed controversy, and led to the Zelensky aide’s essentially forced resignation…

Zelensky’s adviser admits that the destruction of the apartment building in Dnipro was the result of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Aleksey Arestovich: “No, it [the missile] was shot down. It fell on the building. When it fell, it exploded.”

(via @thecoppermountain) pic.twitter.com/7yh28SEKsa

— the Lemniscat (@theLemniscat) January 15, 2023

Russian state media and Kremlin officials have also picked up Arestovych’s initial explanation of an errant Ukrainian missile hitting the apartment building, given that in coming during candid remarks from a high-ranking Ukrainian official, it’s a significant indicator that Russia’s denials and explanation are plausible. 

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The U.K. government has announced it will use a constitutional mechanism for the first time to block controversial gender reform legislation passed by the Scottish government to make it easier for people to change their gender.

The Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill was approved by 86 votes to 39 in Holyrood shortly before Christmas. If enacted, it would have removed the requirement for a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a doctor in order to apply for a gender recognition certificate (GRC).

It would also have reduced the time an applicant must live in their preferred gender from two years to just three months, and perhaps most controversially, would have lowered the minimum age a person can apply for a GRC from 18 to 16.

On Monday, the U.K. government’s Scottish Secretary Alister Jack announced he would invoke a clause in the legislation that handed the Scottish government devolved powers from Westminster to block the bill from becoming law.

“I have decided to make an order under section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998, preventing the Scottish Parliament’s Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from proceeding to Royal Assent,” Jack wrote in a statement.

“After thorough and careful consideration of all the relevant advice and the policy implications, I am concerned that this legislation would have an adverse impact on the operation of Great Britain-wide equalities legislation.

“Transgender people who are going through the process to change their legal sex deserve our respect, support, and understanding. My decision today is about the legislation’s consequences for the operation of GB-wide equalities protections and other reserved matters.

“I have not taken this decision lightly. If the Scottish Government chooses to bring an amended bill back for reconsideration in the Scottish Parliament, I hope we can work together to find a constructive way forward that both respects devolution and the operation of UK Parliament legislation,” Jack added.

The decision has sparked outrage among the government in Scotland, run by Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), which has long advocated Scottish independence from Westminster.

In response, Sturgeon called the move a “full-frontal attack on our democratically elected Scottish Parliament and its ability to make its own decisions on devolved matters.”

She vowed to “defend the legislation and stand up for Scotland’s parliament,” warning that if the U.K. government was successful in vetoing the bill, “it will be the first of many.”

Progressives in Holyrood passed the bill despite polling results published last month showing as many as two-thirds of Scots aged 16 and over oppose the plans. In particular, 66 percent opposed reducing the minimum age required to apply for a GRC from 18 to 16 years old.

Against a background of some recent ‘better than expected’ macro prnts that bolstered the ‘soft landing’ thesis spurring stocks higher and rate-hike-odds lower, the Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey just stole the jam out of the bulls’ donuts.

The NYFed’s general business conditions index crashed nearly 22 points to -32.9 this month (twice as bad as the weakest analyst estimate).

Aside from the trough of COVID lockdowns in May 2020, this is the weakest print since March 2009, and has been in contraction in five of the last six months.

New orders dropped nearly 28 points to minus 31.1, also the lowest since May 2020 and marking the third-straight month of contraction. 

Shipments plunged by a similar amount to the lowest since August.

Factory employment fell to its weakest level in more than two years, indicating that hiring has essentially stalled.

Moreover, an index of the employee workweek shrank to the lowest since August.

…but, but, but ‘soft landing’?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The CPI data for December buoyed markets and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is winning its war against inflation. But in his podcast, Peter explained that the Fed isn’t winning the war. It is losing and will ultimately surrender to inflation.

Markets rallied after the CPI data appeared to show further cooling in price inflation. Most people assume that means the central bank can be less aggressive and ease up on rate hikes in the coming year. And if there is enough progress, many people think the Fed will reverse course and start cutting interest rates later in 2023.

Peter said he agrees that there is a good chance the Fed will cut rates this year. And he thinks there is an even better chance the central bank returns to quantitative easing, whether it cuts rates or not. But this pivot won’t be because of a victory in the war against inflation.

No. They’re going to surrender. Inflation is going to win that war. The Fed is going to run to fight another battle — at least it’s going to try to fight because it’s going to lose that battle too. That battle is going to be recession, maybe financial crisis, maybe a battle to try to prop up the US government whose insolvency is becoming a bigger problem with rising interest rates.”

The US government continues to run massive budget deficits even as its interest costs rise. Interest payments on the debt rose 41% in 2022. According to the Peterson Foundation, the jump in interest expense was larger than the biggest increase in interest costs in any single fiscal year, dating back to 1962.

If interest rates remain elevated or continue rising, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.)

Because servicing this debt is going to become so problematic in 2023, that’s another reason that the Federal Reserve is going to back off of its rate hikes, and, in fact, may have to go back to quantitative easing because they will need to buy Treasuries that private buyers don’t want at interest rates that the US government can’t afford.”

Along with the massive federal debt, there is also a growing level of consumer debt that will create problems for the Fed’s inflation fight for the same reason. The average credit card interest rate has ballooned to 19.6%. Meanwhile, credit card debt alone grew by 15% in 2022. It was the biggest year-over-year gain in 20 years.

The fact that credit card debt is skyrocketing as savings rates are plunging — this is very problematic for the economy. It shows that Americans are struggling to make ends meet.”

Rising consumer debt also indicates overall credit is expanding. That is, by definition, inflation. Keep in mind, inflation isn’t just rising prices. Properly defined, it is an expansion of the money supply and credit. People can use credit to buy things and bid up prices.

Consumers are dealing with rising prices not so much by cutting back and buying less, although in some circumstances they are. But they’re also taking advantage of credit so that they can just keep buying the same amount and just making up the difference by borrowing money. So, the Federal Reserve is still keeping interest rates too low and allowing credit to grow too plentifully so that additional credit is available to consumers to continue to bid up higher prices. And so they’re not being priced out of the markets because they’re staying in the market because of their access to credit. So, in other words, the inflation is continuing in the credit markets.”

The bottom line is that the increasing level of debt is not a sign of a strong economy. It’s a sign of economic weakness. And it is exacerbating the inflationary pressure. It’s indicative of the fact that the Fed is losing the inflation battle.

The Fed needs to discourage spending and encourage saving. But that’s not happening.

The Fed is raising interest rates but consumers don’t care. They’re just borrowing more money and spending more money. So, the credit supply is expanding and that is going to continue to put upward pressure on prices. The Fed is making no real headway in its battle against inflation.”

Authored by Michael Msika via Bloomberg,

European stocks are surging like never before in the new year, revved up by a surprise softening in inflation readings as well as resilient economies. While low positioning and bullish technicals point to more upside, there are roadblocks ahead.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index just had its best start of a year on record, advancing 6.5% over the first two weeks. The performance already exceeds strategists’ forecasts for the full year.

“Markets may have good reasons to see the glass half-full on inflation and dismiss hawkish central banks’ rhetoric,” says Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau, while warning that some consolidation “would make sense and feel rather healthy.”

But overall, the strategist says positioning and sentiment are not as bullish as European price action suggests, and sees further gains possible, noting the rally seems more due to short covering than capital reallocation to the region.

Additionally, equity flows are still muted, exposure from CTAs and hedge funds is below normal, and investor sentiment indicators are still bearish, Cau says.

And technicals are rather bullish, according to DayByDay analyst Valerie Gastaldy, who says the Euro Stoxx 50 could well gain another 10% within a few weeks once it catches a second wind. She sees the first real resistance for the index at 4,415 — the high from 2021.

“In the short-term, the market may feel overheated, especially as there is no confirmation yet that yields will rise more slowly,” Gastaldy says, but technicals signal that the most probable scenario for the Euro Stoxx 50 is to rocket to a new high, with the current rally having at least the same size as the one in November.

No part of the market is oversold and there seems to be a lack of interest in buying downside protection, even with volatility under 20 — which was a key sell signal over the past year.

In fact, many strategists are scratching their heads and sticking to a view that a storm is coming and investors should hedge. BofA strategist Sebastian Raedler even sees 20% downside by the second quarter as economic growth momentum fades due to monetary tightening.

Separately, UBS strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda recommend buying risk reversals on European equities (sell calls/buy puts), seeing 8% downside ahead on declining earnings and margin expectations.

“The market significantly under-prices downside risks,” they say.

The upcoming earnings season could be a reality check for Europe, although even the salvo of profit warnings from the past few days — including Logitech, Ubisoft, Halfords, Signify, VAT and Gym Group — failed to dent investor optimism.

For now, bears are lacking arguments. The extension of the rally from 2022 losers, along with Europe’s largest company LVMH trading at an all-time high, makes finding shorts very difficult, according to Cowen’s EMEA head of trading Carl Dooley.

“So some kind of pullback looks fair,” he says. “It certainly feels like one is due. But aren’t we all thinking that?”

Russia and Belarus have kicked off joint aerial drills over Belarusian skies on Monday, in a worrying prospect for neighboring Ukraine given the exercises will last for a full two weeks, until Feb.1. 

Minsk, however, has called the drills “defensive in nature” amid accusations from Kiev that Belarusian armed forces are about to join the Russian invasion. Seeking to downplay that this signals escalation in Ukraine, Minsk also called the exercises mere “technical drills” which seek greater compatibility among the allies’ air forces.

An Al Jazeera correspondent in Moscow said that “We all know that last month President Vladimir Putin went to Minsk, where he met his counterpart [Alexander] Lukashenko, where they agreed that Russia will provide the Belarusian air force with training to be able to use what they described as aircraft that could carry unconventional weapons.”

But the correspondent noted: “there are many concerns with the role Belarus is playing with respect to the war, whether this is going to have [an] impact.”

As of last week, the Pentagon said it had yet to observe any Russian troop movements in Belarus that would indicate the two countries are staging a fresh attack on Ukraine together. Over the last weeks there have been widespread reports of Russian heavy equipment moving across the border by train into Belarus.

According to an AP description of the Monday joint air force drills, “The exercise will feature joint air patrols, action to support ground forces, airborne operations, air reconnaissance and transport flights, the ministry said. It didn’t mention the number of aircraft that will be involved in the drills.”

Ten days ago, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko paid a visit to a military base where Russian troops are stationed, in but the latest sign of Belarus’ growing support to Russian efforts in Ukraine.

“At this stage, units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are ready to carry out tasks as intended,” a defense ministry official said at the time. Lukashenko himself had referred to the conflict in Ukraine as part of his country’s “common cause” with Russia.

The Ukrainian government, meanwhile, has continued to charge that Russia is using Belarusian territory to launch drones as it targets energy infrastructure.

Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

A man has been arrested under terrorism laws after traces of uranium were found in a cargo package at Heathrow Airport, police said.

Uranium was detected in a package at the airport on Dec. 29, London’s Metropolitan Police confirmed on Jan. 11.

The man, who is in his 60s, was arrested after counter-terror officers searched an address in Cheshire on Saturday.

He was arrested on suspicion of an offence under Section 9 of the Terrorism Act 2006, which covers the making and possession of radioactive devices.

He has been released on bail until April, the Metropolitan Police said on Sunday, adding that there does not appear to be any direct threat to the public.

People queue to enter Terminal 2 at Heathrow Airport, London, on Jan. 18, 2021. (Henry Nicholls/Reuters)

According to the Sun newspaper, which first reported the incident, the package had originated from Pakistan and arrived in the UK on a flight from Oman. The uranium was found in a shipment of scrap metal, according to the BBC.

Uranium can be used for civilian power generation and scientific purposes and is a key ingredient in nuclear weapons. Certain isotopes emit radiation that can be harmful to humans, and the metal itself is toxic if ingested or inhaled.

‘Very Small Amount’

Police stressed that the amount of uranium detected was “very small.”

Commander Richard Smith, who leads the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “The discovery of what was a very small amount of uranium within a package at Heathrow Airport is clearly of concern, but it shows the effectiveness of the procedures and checks in place with our partners to detect this type of material.

“Our priority since launching our investigation has been to ensure that there is no linked direct threat to the public. To this end, we are following every possible line of inquiry available to us, which has led us to making this arrest over the weekend.

“I want to be clear that despite making this arrest, and based on what we currently know, this incident still does not appear to be linked to any direct threat to the public. However, detectives are continuing with their inquiries to ensure this is definitely the case.”

Undated photo showing the New Scotland Yard sign outside the Metropolitan Police headquarters in London. (Kirsty O’Connor/PA Media)

On Jan. 10, after the incident was reported in the press, Smith said, “I want to reassure the public that the amount of contaminated material was extremely small and has been assessed by experts as posing no threat to the public.”

“Although our investigation remains ongoing, from our inquiries so far, it does not appear to be linked to any direct threat. As the public would expect, however, we will continue to follow up on all available lines of inquiry to ensure this is definitely the case,” he added.

He added that the incident “does highlight the excellent capability” of UK police and other security agencies to monitor the country’s ports and borders “in order to keep the public safe from any potential threats to their safety and security that might be coming into the UK.”

Giving evidence at the Police and Crime Committee of the London Assembly on Jan. 11, Smith said that it was “understandable” that media reports on the incident would attract “considerable attention and potentially concern.”

He said: “The circumstances are that in the course of routine scanning at London Heathrow an element of cargo was identified that was emitting a radioactive signal. There are procedures in place to deal with these sorts of incidents and those procedures were enacted. As part of that, the counter-terrorism commands were contacted and have opened an investigation into the surrounding circumstances.”

Armed police officers patrol the new Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport prior to its official opening, in London, on March 14, 2008. (Dan Kitwood /Getty Images)

Britons ‘Should Be Pretty Reassured’

Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a chemical and biological weapons expert, told the BBC Radio 4 “Today” programme on Jan. 11 that people should be reassured that the uranium was detected.

He said, “It’s very clear that the comprehensive surveillance network that we have in place in this country, run by the security services, the police, and others, has actually worked and picked up potentially a very dangerous containment that could provide a threat.”

De Bretton-Gordon, the former head of the UK’s nuclear defence regiment, added, “In this country I think people should be pretty reassured that we’re not going to see dirty bombs from this type of material.”

Asked what could have happened to the metal, he said: “If it is for nefarious reasons, for bad reasons, to create mayhem by Iranians or some sort of Russian proxy, then that is an area of concern. But I think the key thing is that there are people looking out for this, and this should not worry the public unduly.”

Last autumn, former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget sparked financial turmoil across UK markets. The Bank of England was forced to intervene with a massive bond-buying scheme to halt pension fund deleveraging. One market that was exceptionally roiled by the chaos was the UK commercial property market. 

Truss’s then-chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, caused financial turbulence and fears of a 2008-style financial crisis by unveiling the mini-budget, also known as “The Growth Plan,” which was designed to boost economic growth through tax cuts that were funded by fiscal stimulus. This caused dysfunction in the UK gilt market and led to pensions unloading everything from stocks, bonds, collateralized-loan obligations, and even office buildings. That quickly cooled investments in London office buildings in the fourth quarter. 

Real estate information provider CoStar Group Inc. revealed £400 million ($488 million) of offices in the UK were bought and sold in the fourth quarter, an 88% plunge from the prior quarter. 

Bloomberg noted, “the dealmaking freeze — worse than the decline during the financial crisis or Covid-19 lockdowns — came as former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s proposals for unfunded tax cuts spooked markets.” 

CoStar’s data shows the two-decade quarterly average for offices bought and sold is around £3.5 billion ($4.2 billion). So the last quarter’s figure reflects the turmoil sparked by Truss. Also, buyers are on the sidelines as they wait for price adjustments due to higher borrowing costs and the rising risk of recession.  

At the time of the turmoil last fall, pensions were unloading positions in the UK’s largest property funds, causing these funds to gate redemptions to avoid asset “firesales.”  

And the turmoil is unlikely to be over. US fund manager BlackRock recently suspended redemption requests from investors in its £3.5 billion ($4.2 billion) UK property fund. 

The net asset value of the BlackRock UK Property Fund has been on a rollercoaster ride in the last few quarters and roundtripped Covid lows. 

It seems like a combination of Truss’ disastrous mini-budget sparking financial chaos late last year and increasing economic uncertainty have led to freezing the UK office property market. 

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A Ukrainian activist who has been lauded by legacy media outlets called for “all Russians” to be “wiped off the face of the Earth.”

The genocidal remarks were made by blogger Melania Podoliak in response to a missile hitting an apartment block in the Ukrainian city of Dnepr.

The building was struck after a Russian missile was shot down by a Ukrainian anti-air weapon, according to Aleksey Arestovich, an adviser to President Vladimir Zelensky.

“It’s absolutely fair for me to wish for all Russians and Russia to be wiped off the face of the Earth,” Podoliak tweeted.

“It’s not hate speech, it’s not horrible of me, it’s just FAIR,” she added.

It’s absolutely fair for me to wish for all Russians and Russia to be wiped off the face of the Earth. It’s not hate speech, it’s not horrible of me, it’s just FAIR.

14.01.2013, Dnipro, a residential building after Russian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/4TPHYm13a8

— Melaniya Podolyak (@MelaniePodolyak) January 14, 2023

Quite how it was “fair” for all Russians to be killed in response to their government being embroiled in a war wasn’t explained by Podoliak.

Her comments were flagged after it was noted that Podoliak has been given a platform by numerous western legacy media outlets, including on NBC News as a “political activist” and by Fox News as a “media consultant.”

Critics accused Podoliak of being “pro-ethnic cleansing,” to which she responded by tweeting swear words.

Fuuuuuck you

— Melaniya Podolyak (@MelaniePodolyak) January 14, 2023

After some respondents said they knew Podoliak’s home address, she told them they were in for “a big fucking treat,” posting a photo of herself holding a shotgun.

Cool, now these bots threaten me by letting me know they have my address

Well if you know that, you also know your in for a big fucking treat. Cya!

(Unless you want to waste an entire missile on me, which is going to change nothing for you, you’re still gonna get fuucked) https://t.co/4iesIszNGw pic.twitter.com/EbRkD8krPp

— Melaniya Podolyak (@MelaniePodolyak) January 15, 2023

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard such genocidal rhetoric.

As we previously highlighted, Ukrainian TV host Fahruddin Sharafmal took to the airwaves to demand the genocide of Russian children, quoting top Nazi Adolf Eichmann as he called for “killing children.”

*  *  *

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Record warmth spread across Europe in the first half of January. Temperatures in the energy-stricken continent felt more like spring as several metropolitan areas recorded the warmest temperatures on record. Now a pattern shift is underway as parts of northwest Europe brace for a cold snap starting Monday. 

The latest runs for global weather models, including GFS Operational and ECMWF Operational, show what appears to be a downward shift in temperatures for northwest Europe. Average temps are expected to average in the low 30s degrees Fahrenheit this week, below 5,10, and 30-year averages. 

GFS and ECMWF models show temperatures in London could decline to the low 30s by tomorrow — well below average for this time of year. 

A similar cold spell in Paris is slated for early this week. 

As well as colder temperatures in Berlin. 

Freezing temperatures across northwest Europe for the second half of the month will push up heating demand.  

Mild temperatures curbed heating demand and allowed for injections into natural gas storage at a time when supplies should be drawing. But that could change with the return of winter. 

The return of freezing conditions did very little to boost EU nature gas prices, which fell to the lowest level since September 2021 as the supply outlook remained robust. 

“There currently appears to be no end to the losses on the European gas market,” analysts at trading firm Energi Danmark A/S wrote in a note. They added: 

“The panic-like situation from last year has been replaced by confidence that Europe will get through this winter without any supply issues.”

Still, some are warning winter isn’t over:

#natgas
Weather models are cooling by the day. European snow cover is forecast over half of Europe including Greece, Italy, Turkey, even Lebanon and North Africa reaching 3 foot of snow. #natgas pic.twitter.com/L5hjnXWgbW

— Heinrich Leopold (@LeopoldHeinrich) January 16, 2023

forecast #polarvortex pic.twitter.com/2rqHLgNv9N

— PV-Forecast (@PvForecast) January 16, 2023

#natgas
To the astonishment of weather forecasters models (Jan17,23,31) are becoming colder and colder in Europe. This is exactly what the weakening of the polar vortex suggests. This will intensify as an historic strong vortex has accumulated a record amount of arctic cold air. pic.twitter.com/jI9txxPD8n

— Heinrich Leopold (@LeopoldHeinrich) January 15, 2023