Quebec, Canada last week approved the used of psilocybin – the primary psychoactive in “magic mushrooms,” as a valid therapy under the state’s medical system.

Advocates hope the move will set a precedent for other Canadian provinces to take similar action, Forbes reports.

“This decision is a huge step forward for the use of psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy as a legitimate medical treatment,” wrote TheraPsil, a nonprofit group that advocates for the advancement of psilocybin therapies, in a Dec. 15 statement. “It not only provides greater access to this potentially life-changing treatment for patients in Quebec, but it also sets a precedent for other provinces to follow suit.”

Clinical research and other studies into psychedelics such as psilocybin have shown that the drugs have potential therapeutic benefits, particularly for serious mental health conditions such as depression, addiction and anxiety. Research published in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Psychiatry in 2020 found that psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy was an effective and quick-acting treatment for a group of 24 participants with major depressive disorder. A separate study published in 2016 determined that psilocybin treatment produced substantial and sustained decreases in depression and anxiety in patients with life-threatening cancer. -Forbes

As we noted in April, psychedelic mushrooms are becoming increasingly popular in the US as a possible treatment for psychiatric disorders, with their main active ingredient, psilocybin, moving from the fringes of medicine, to become increasingly mainstream. It appears that Canada, however, is actually making moves to bring the benefits to actual patients.

And while the benefits of psilocybin have been evident for some time, access to the compound – and related therapy, has been extremely limited in Canada. In some cases, terminally ill patients suffering from palliative depression have been made to wait more than a year for a response from Health Canada – the national health regulator – to gain permission to use magic mushrooms legally. What’s more, even when patients obtained a legal exemption to use the drug, healthcare practitioners were unable to bill for it due to a lack of codes to properly process charges.

That all changed after two doctors, Dr. Houman Farzin and Dr. Jean-François Stephan, successfully billed Quebec after treating a patient with psilocybin which was legally allowed by Health Canada.

After the treatment, Dr. Stephan compiled evidence and submitted a letter, cosigned by 15 colleagues, outlining the medical safety and efficacy of psilocybin. He argued that both doctors participating in the treatment should be covered, noting that existing codes would not allow two doctors to bill for the same patient at the same time. He also explained that scientific evidence demonstrates that patients who have legal access to psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy have a medical indication. -Forbes

“I think it’s amazing news that patients have covered access to such an important treatment option and it’s an encouraging sign for psychedelic medicine. Quebec has chosen to align with the science in regards to psychedelic medicine and recognize it as a medically indicated service in specific circumstances. They didn’t delay this unnecessarily,” said Dr. Stephan, who partnered with the governing body for general practitioners in Quebec, the Fédération des médecins omnipraticiens du Québec (FMOQ), which negotiated with the government to amend the codes.

“It’s encouraging to see them recognize the evidence available, and make the necessary adjustments to support the financial aspects of treatment so that it’s not an obstacle for patient access. I’m pleased this happened in Quebec, and I hope other provinces follow in their footsteps.”

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

There are at least 82 municipalities across 29 states now engaged in guaranteed income experiments, including more than 70 with pilot programs created within the past year, according to a coalition of more than 100 American mayors promoting the concept.

Mayors for Guaranteed Income, and proponents among municipal officials nationwide, are encouraging local governments to seed pilot programs with federal pandemic assistance from a $350 billion fund for state and local governments within the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), adopted in March 2021.

The mayoral group was established by Michael Tubbs, the former mayor of Stockton, Calif., in June 2020 after the city launched, and later extended, an experiment where 125 residents received $500 monthly in a program financed by the Economic Security Project, a nonprofit that supports guaranteed income experiments.

During a Dec. 15 virtual roundtable discussion, several municipal officials said there is growing public support for basic income models and accelerating momentum to expand these programs through a mix of federal, state, local, and private money.

In fact, much to the chagrin of conservatives and budget hawks, the ARPA state and local recovery fund is being used “as a seed for long-term policy change,” said DePaul University’s Dr. Amanda Kass, who studies how states, cities, and counties spend federal pandemic assistance.

Kass told the panel that ARPA is the first federal program “that has ever produced this amount of highly flexible aid to nearly all governments in the United States—to tens of thousands of governments.”

As a result, she said, because of “the unprecedented nature” of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak and its accompanying slate of federal pandemic-related bills, local governments are spending ARPA money in innovative ways which makes evaluating how they spent, or plan to spend, that money “a tricky question.” 

Kass said in analyzing how local governments are dispersing ARPA allocations, there’s “not just one avenue” but “many different stories” in how cities and counties “with unique socio-economic conditions” are using the money to address “unique needs.”

Guaranteed Income Programs Gaining Traction

Baltimore Chief Recovery Officer Shamiah Kerney said her city is sponsoring a guaranteed income pilot program in which 200 “18 to 24-year-olds who have children” receive $1,000 a month in supplemental income for two years. 

The city hopes to collect enough data to determine if providing a guaranteed basic income for low-income families with children benefits recipients and taxpayers, she said.

“We’re hoping that will inform the dialogue on a national basis,” Kerney said during the roundtable, cohosted by the National League of Cities and the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC), a watchdog panel created by the U.S. Office of Inspector General (OIG) to monitor federal pandemic allocations.

Baltimore’s Young Families Success Fund earmarks $4.8 million in ARPA money for the program. It began dispersing $1,000 a month to 200 recipients with incomes at or below 300 percent of the federal poverty level—$26,200 for a family of four—in August.

By fall 2024, Kerney said, the city suspects data collected from the pilot program will “demonstrate the need” for sustaining, if not expanding, the program.

In Cook County, Ill., which includes Chicago, the board of supervisors in September approved the nation’s largest guaranteed income pilot program, a $42 million plan mostly using ARPA money to provide $500 monthly to 3,250 households, at or below the federal poverty line, for two years.

Cook County Budget Director Annette Guzman said officials are looking at the program to determine if it should be “a permanent piece” in addressing poverty “going forward.”

On Dec. 13, the St. Louis Board of Aldermen in a 21-1 vote set aside $5 million in ARPA money for a test universal basic income program that will provide 440 families with $500 a month for 18 months.

St. Louis Senior Strategic Initiatives Manager Grace Kyung said the city had already dispersed more than $122 million in ARPA money for direct cash assistance programs, mostly related to housing needs, so the $5 million test program could prove to be a good investment.

The pilot program fits under the city’s “economic justice action plan,” she said, which dovetails with U.S. Treasury ARPA guidelines that “encourage” funding for programs that address “racial and economic inequities” predating, but aggravated by, the pandemic.

Under U.S. Treasury guidelines attached to ARPA state and local allocations “investments to support people or communities with low incomes are allowable” even if initial ARPA outlays “may require investments for an extended period to be successful.”

Using this framework, local governments have secured ARPA money for programs related to community violence mitigation, behavioral health, affordable housing, child care, eviction prevention, medical debt, and cash assistance.

More Than $220 Billion Still Available

According to PRAC, a team of 21 OIG inspectors general who monitor dispersement of $5.7 trillion in federal aid approved between March 2020 and March 2021—beginning with the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) Act and concluding with ARPA—there is still plenty of pandemic assistance money available to municipalities.

Read more here…

Russia and China have announced new large-scale joint naval drills to be held this week in the East China Sea at a moment the West has continued to be alarmed that relations between Moscow and Beijing have remained unfazed by the Ukraine war.

The Russian defense ministry (MoD) announced the drills will be held December 21-27, with a purpose to “strengthen cooperation between the two navies to maintain peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.” There will also be an anti-submarine warfare and missile launch training component to the drills.

“The Russian fleet at the exercise will be represented by [the] Pacific Fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, and [two] corvettes,” the Russian MoD statement continued.

Dubbed the “Maritime Cooperation 2022” exercise, air forces from both countries are also expected to continue patrolling the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, as they’ve been observed doing of late.

The AP reports based on official statements, “The Russian Defense Ministry said the Varyag missile cruiser, the Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer and two corvettes of Russia’s Pacific Fleet would take part in maneuvers in the East China Sea starting Wednesday.”

“The ministry said the Chinese navy planned to deploy several surface warships and a submarine for the exercise,” AP continues. “Russian and Chinese aircraft will also take part in the drills, according to the ministry.”

Large groupings of warships have been observed en route just ahead of the drills, with a detachment of Russia’s Pacific Fleet having departed the far eastern port of Vladivostok.

As for the Chinese side, Japan’s Defense Ministry previously said it monitored at least nine Chinese navy warships entering the western Pacific in preparation, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier.

“The Liaoning was spotted transiting from the East China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait, between Japan’s Miyako and Okinawa islands, last Friday,” writes South China Morning Post. “It was escorted by the Type 055 destroyer 103 Anshan, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang, and the Type 901 supply ship Hulunhu.”

The US has sought to pressure Beijing to back off its “no limits” partnership with Moscow (as was declared not long before Russia’s Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine); however, clearly all signals point in the other direction – that China has remained unswayed and is in fact deepening cooperation even on a military level.

Update (1250ET): Bankman-Fried reportedly wants to see the indictment against him before agreeing to extradition to the United States, according to Reuters, citing a statement made by SBF’s attorney to a court in the Bahamas on Monday.

As Cointelegraph notes, Some members of the crypto space, including the team behind YouTuber Ben Armstrong, also known as Bitboy Crypto, reported on Twitter they appeared in person at the hearing to “look SBF in the eyes.”

We ready. About to go in. Guess who is in front of the line? Finally getting to look @SBF_FTX in the eyes this morning. pic.twitter.com/TtdYXZiUnD

— Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) December 19, 2022

*  *  *

It appears crypto-criminal Sam Bankman-Fried would rather take his chances in the relative ‘luxury’ of an American jail than face another night in Bahamian’s corrections department, as he is expected to accept extradition as soon as this morning.

After being arrested and denied bail by a Bahamas court, the 30-year-old has been held at Fox Hill Prison in Nassau.

The facility has been criticized in international reports for overcrowding and lacking sanitation.

Reports indicate that he shares a cell with five other individuals.

The NY Times reports one former Fox Hill inmate Sean Hall, who was freed from jail last year, said:

“It’s no living situation for no type of living being.”

According to Hall, the width of his cell was less than the span of his stretched arms, and they slept on bare metal bunk beds infested with insects.

Another source acquainted with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that Sam Bankman-Fried’s team had provided meals that matched his dietary requirements, but they were uncertain as of Friday if he had received them.

According to people familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is due in a Bahamian court on Monday where he is expected to agree to be extradited to the US to face charges of fraud.

Extradition will pave the way for a protracted legal showdown in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Southern District of New York of the Justice Department unsealed a 13-page criminal indictment.

Bitcoinist reports, that, according to defense attorney Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma, Bankman-Fried would likely be detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn upon arriving in the U.S., although some defendants are being kept at jails just outside of New York City owing to congestion at the facility.

It didn’t take long for the Ukrainian government to blast and dismiss former US Secretary of State Kissinger’s peace plan proposal as “appeasing the aggressor”.

“Mr. Kissinger still has not understood anything… neither the nature of this war, nor its impact on the world order,” Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said in response to the 99-year old influential US statesman’s Saturday op-ed in The Spectator entitled How to Avoid Another World War.

“The prescription that the ex-Secretary of State calls for, but is afraid to say out loud, is simple: appease the aggressor by sacrificing parts of Ukraine with guarantees of non-aggression against the other states of Eastern Europe,” Podolyak stated, expressing a firm rejection of what Kissinger outlined in his piece. 

The Ukrainian official added that the proposal was simplistic, saying: “All supporters of simple solutions should remember the obvious: any agreement with the devil – a bad peace at the expense of Ukrainian territories – will be a victory for Putin and a recipe for success for autocrats around the world.”

In his weekend op-ed, Kissinger had warned that continued attempts to render Russia “impotent” could result in an uncontrollable and unpredictable spiral. He laid out that along with the sought after “dissolution” of Russia would come a massive power vacuum out of which new threats to the whole world would emerge as bigger powers rush in.

“The dissolution of Russia or destroying its ability for strategic policy could turn its territory encompassing 11 time zones into a contested vacuum,” Kissinger wrote. “Its competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence. Other countries might seek to expand their claims by force. All these dangers would be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons which make Russia one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers.”

Henry Kissinger Calls for Negotiated Peace in Ukraine to AVOID THERMONUCLEAR WORLD WAR III https://t.co/c34C0IUWgB pic.twitter.com/xhuKeCHv2w

— Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) December 19, 2022

Among the more controversial aspects of Kissinger’s plan was his suggesting the possibility of referendums for contested territories now occupied by Russia and still being fought over “which have changed hands repeatedly over the centuries” [i.e.: particularly the Donbas] – according to the essay.

Kissinger last May also angered Ukrainian officails for daring to propose that Ukraine be willing to recognize Crimea as under Russia, and in return Russian forces would fall back to their lines before the Feb. 24 invasion. Previously he’s been on record as saying “It was not a wise American policy to attempt to include Ukraine into NATO.”

The stance appears similar to Elon Musk’s recent thoughts on a “Russia-Ukraine peace” plan. Musk had evoked widespread anger and denunciation from US and Ukrainian officials and pundits, given he said that nuclear-armed showdown among superpowers over Ukraine must be avoided at all costs, even if that means difficult territorial concessions must be made.  

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• The recent crude price slump may not be indicative for what is to come in oil markets according to several investment bank analysts.

• OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018.

• Structural underinvestment in new oil supply may lead to structurally higher prices.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel. Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities.

Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.

Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles, too, are largely based on China’s reversal of its zero-Covid policy. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good.

“We remain constructive on oil prices driven by recovering demand (China reopening, aviation recovering) amid constrained supply due to low levels of investment, risks to Russia supply, the end of SPR releases, and slowdown of U.S. shale,” Morgan Stanley said this week in a note.

Yet the situation may be a lot more serious with regard to supply, as noted in a recent market commentary by TortoiseEcoFin’s President and Portfolio Manager, Matt Sallee.

“Global oil inventory is at the lowest level since 2004, the Department of Energy has released 200 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, OPEC continues to struggle to produce at their stated quota and US producers are helping but can only do so much.”

This s a pretty succinct description of the global oil supply situation, but the picture is not one that would invoke positive emotions. It is one that is more likely to evoke concern, and with a good reason. Because there is little evidence that any of these trends will change meaningfully any time soon.

OPEC, for example, has zero motivation to try and boost production, Sallee noted in follow-up comments for Oilprice. It would only do so if it knows oil will remain over $100 per barrel for a longer period of time, but there is no way to be confident about this right now.

Then there are the purely physical constraints on OPEC production, as evidenced by the consistent failure of the group to hit its own—reduced—production targets. Most OPEC members have ambitious production growth plans, but they remain plans while actual production remains subdued for reasons such as natural depletion at mature fields and, ultimately, not enough investment.

As Sallee notes, OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018 when it did so deliberately in a bid to destroy U.S. shale and, to a great extent, succeeded, temporarily. And that’s because it neither wants to nor can it do so.

Underinvestment is turning into a thing in U.S. shale as well, at least from the perspective of the White House. According to the Biden administration, all U.S. producers need to do is spend more on additional production. According to the U.S. producers themselves, the long-term outlook for oil demand is too uncertain about investing in more production.

Then there is the issue of prime acreage, which several experts have been warning is running out. TortoiseEcoFin’s Sallee is among them:

“Best acreage has been drilled, the industry is struggling to attract labor and has limited sources of financing,” he told Oilprice.

According to him, U.S. oil production is unlikely to ever again record annual output increase rates of 1 million bpd or more, as it did in the recent past. A growth rate of 500,000 to 750,000 bpd is far more likely, he believes. And that’s not good news for consumers because demand, although targeted by the energy transition camp, is not going down soon.

The International Energy Agency, one of the most active members of the energy transition movement, in its latest Oil Market Report revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand next year because of an unexpected increase in consumption this year.

Chances are this is a sustainable trend in the absence of viable alternatives to oil products. And this means that demand and supply will be in a precarious balance in the future, constantly on the brink of a shortage or even deep in a shortage, should Big Oil’s pivot to low-carbon energy continue, as it requires they reduce their oil production to hit their net-zero goals. What all this means is that the era of cheap crude oil may well be over for good.

In the latest episode of ‘THE TWITTER FILES,’ journalist Michael Shellenberger reveals “How the FBI & intelligence community discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings both after and *before* The New York Post revealed the contents of his laptop on October 14, 2020.”

In Twitter Files #7, we present evidence pointing to an organized effort by representatives of the intelligence community (IC), aimed at senior executives at news and social media companies, to discredit leaked information about Hunter Biden before and after it was published.

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

Continued…

The story begins in December 2019 when a Delaware computer store owner named John Paul (J.P.) Mac Isaac contacts the FBI about a laptop that Hunter Biden had left with him

On Dec 9, 2019, the FBI issues a subpoena for, and takes, Hunter Biden’s laptop.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

By Aug 2020, Mac Isaac still had not heard back from the FBI, even though he had discovered evidence of criminal activity. And so he emails Rudy Giuliani, who was under FBI surveillance at the time. In early Oct, Giuliani gives it to @nypost

Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad

Shortly before 7 pm ET on October 13, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, emails JP Mac Isaac.

Hunter and Mesires had just learned from the New York Post that its story about the laptop would be published the next day.

7. At 9:22 pm ET (6:22 PT), FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter.

8. The next day, October 14, 2020, The New York Post runs its explosive story revealing the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Every single fact in it was accurate.

9. And yet, within hours, Twitter and other social media companies censor the NY Post article, preventing it from spreading and, more importantly, undermining its credibility in the minds of many Americans.

Why is that? What, exactly, happened?

 

10. On Dec 2, @mtaibbi described the debate inside Twitter over its decision to censor a wholly accurate article.

Since then, we have discovered new info that points to an organized effort by the intel community to influence Twitter & other platforms

12. And yet, during all of 2020, the FBI and other law enforcement agencies repeatedly primed Yoel Roth to dismiss reports of Hunter Biden’s laptop as a Russian “hack and leak” operation.

This is from a sworn declaration by Roth given in December 2020.https://t.co/IvTjyYw9iR pic.twitter.com/5iq2ATB3bW

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

14. Were the FBI warnings of a Russian hack-and-leak operation relating to Hunter Biden based on *any* new intel?

No, they weren’t

“Through our investigations, we did not see any similar competing intrusions to what had happened in 2016,” admitted FBI agent Elvis Chan in Nov. pic.twitter.com/tFPMqbydbA

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

15. Indeed, Twitter executives *repeatedly* reported very little Russian activity. E.g., on Sept 24, 2020, Twitter told FBI it had removed 345 “largely inactive” accounts “linked to previous coordinated Russian hacking attempts.” They “had little reach & low follower accounts.”

17. After FBI asks about a WaPo story on alleged foreign influence in a pro-Trump tweet, Twitter’s Roth says, “The article makes a lot of insinuations… but we saw no evidence that that was the case here (and in fact, a lot of strong evidence pointing in the other direction).” pic.twitter.com/jJjnczZnA5

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

19. Pressure had been growing:

“We have seen a sustained (If uncoordinated) effort by the IC [intelligence community] to push us to share more info & change our API policies. They are probing & pushing everywhere they can (including by whispering to congressional staff).” pic.twitter.com/HWeaYdvNqo

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

20. Time and again, FBI asks Twitter for evidence of foreign influence & Twitter responds that they aren’t finding anything worth reporting.

“[W]e haven’t yet identified activity that we’d typically refer to you (or even flag as interesting in the foreign influence context).” pic.twitter.com/ghGNz4ZzXB

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

22. Then, in July 2020, the FBI’s Elvis Chan arranges for temporary Top Secret security clearances for Twitter executives so that the FBI can share information about threats to the upcoming elections. pic.twitter.com/YXCR2Guxz5

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

24. Recently, Yoel Roth told @karaswisher that he had been primed to think about the Russian hacking group APT28 before news of the Hunter Biden laptop came out.

When it did, Roth said, “It set off every single one of my finely tuned APT28 hack-and-leap campaign alarm bells.” pic.twitter.com/RKoR4NtH1s

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

26. Who is Jim Baker? He’s former general counsel of the FBI (2014-18) & one of the most powerful men in the U.S. intel community.

Baker has moved in and out of government for 30 years, serving stints at CNN, Bridgewater (a $140 billion asset management firm) and Brookings pic.twitter.com/FggRI2zITX

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

28. Baker wasn’t the only senior FBI exec. involved in the Trump investigation to go to Twitter.

Dawn Burton, the former dep. chief of staff to FBI head James Comey, who initiated the investigation of Trump, joined Twitter in 2019 as director of strategy.

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

30. Efforts continued to influence Twitter’s Yoel Roth.

In Sept 2020, Roth participated in an Aspen Institute “tabletop exercise” on a potential “Hack-and-Dump” operation relating to Hunter Biden

The goal was to shape how the media covered it — and how social media carried it pic.twitter.com/lQSorONUSh

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

31. The organizer was Vivian Schiller, the fmr CEO of NPR, fmr head of news at Twitter; fmr Gen. mgr of NY Times; fmr Chief Digital Officer of NBC News

Attendees included Meta/FB’s head of security policy and the top nat. sec. reporters for @nytimes @wapo and others pic.twitter.com/3yO5ZIc2Jy

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) December 19, 2022

Developing…

And some thoughts from the peanut gallery:

Thankfully the @FBI didn’t let a lack of evidence stop them from spreading their “Russian disinformation” disinformation anyway. https://t.co/Ro6nM404Ww

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) December 19, 2022

Matter of fact, why did Yoel Roth crack down on the relatively few Russian bots but do nothing about the millions more Ukrainian bots?

Did Yoel Roth & the Gov run a psyop on the American people? To gain approval and $$$ from us?

Thread:https://t.co/S5n8b6DXhP

— Sam Parker 🇺🇲 (@SamParkerSenate) December 19, 2022

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Watch the 3m30y and the 5y30y segments of the yield curve for early signs that a recession is coming into view. Extra caution will be required at this point as equities and equity earnings have yet to adequately price in a downturn.

The yield-curve’s utility as a recession indicator has been a hot topic in recent years. It has an almost unblemished record of forecasting recessions, with the 2s10s curve only giving one false positive in the postwar years. However, it is limited in its usefulness due to the variability between when the curve inverts and when the recession hits, which ranges between six months and two years.

Overall, the yield curve is a bit of red herring when it comes to recession prediction. A much broader suite of indicators is more effective in giving a more timely sign of an economic contraction, with one next year looking highly likely.

Nonetheless, it’s not the yield-curve inversion that’s the more imminent sign of a recession, but the subsequent re-steepening. Even then, not all parts of the yield curve are equal.

If history is a guide, when 3m30y curve meaningfully steepens and then the 5s30s un-inverts, that will be a sign an NBER recession is as little as two months away.

The chart below shows the set of the most liquid parts of the yield curve before and after recessions going back to 1969 (where certain yields maturities do not have enough history, I only include more recent recessions). The chart shows clearly that the 3m30y curve steepens first, about three months ahead of the recession. It also steepens by the most before and after the recession.

The 5s30s curve also tends to be one of the first to un-invert before a recession, about six-to-eight weeks prior.

At the moment, the 3m30y curve is still flattening and 5s30s is still inverted, suggesting a recession is at least a few months away.

But investors will need to remain vigilant. These trends can change quickly, and recessions always surprise by the rapidity of their onset.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the situation in neighboring Ukraine is “escalating” just before receiving a rare in-country visit by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. In statements published by the presidential press service, Lukashenko sought to refute rumors and allegations that Moscow is essentially running the country. This as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were already in Minsk on Monday just ahead of Putin’s arrival in Minsk. 

While still under Western sanctions over Belarus’ role in assisting Russia as a staging ground for the Ukraine invasion, Lukashenko has struck a fiercely defiant tone, saying “I would like to emphasize this feature once again: no one, except us, governs Belarus.” He added: “We must always proceed from the fact that we are a sovereign state and independent.”

On deep ties with Russia as part of the ‘Union State’ Lukashenko said Belarus will “never be enemies” with the country. “This is the state closest to us, the peoples closest to us,” he explained . “I think that as long as we are in power, we will adhere to this trend. If it were otherwise, it would be like in Ukraine.”

The two countries do indeed seem to be signaling escalation in Ukraine, given their militaries launched huge joint drills in Belarus involving tank and infantry maneuvers, and artillery and sniper exercises.

“From the morning until the evening twilight – there is not a single second of silence at the training grounds of Belarus,” the Belarusian defense ministry said in releasing footage.

This has sparked fears in Kiev and among its Western backers that Belarusian forces could directly enter the Ukraine conflict in support of the Russian defense ministry.

Last February, a major Russian military build-up on Belarusian soil ostensibly for “training exercises” turned out to be the precursor to major invasion. While there were conflicting reports at the time that Belarusian ground units had entered Ukraine, this turned out to be premature, as Belarus limited its participation to playing host to Russian forces as a logistics and staging ground of sorts.

All eyes will be on the potential for a huge announcement by Putin and Lukashenko, given the timing of the official trip…

Lukashenko personally meets Putin at the airport in Minsk.

Putin visited Belarus for the first time since June 2019.

Presumably, he arrived to persuade Lukashenko about direct involvement in the war pic.twitter.com/jSW6EN8vIz

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 19, 2022

It will mark Putin’s first state visit to Belarus in three years, as The Hill has noted. If Belarus is about to enter the war, it could be the result of several of Moscow’s “red lines” having been cross.

As AFP has reported Monday, Ukraine has once again launched attacks on a border city and region inside Russia proper. “In fighting that has spilled over into Russian regions bordering Ukraine, one person was killed, and others were wounded Sunday in Belgorod following attacks that the local authorities blamed on Kyiv.”

#Belarus On December 16, another echelon with around 50 Ural trucks arrived in Belarus from #Russia. This is in addition to 30 trucks that were delivered a few days earlier. Russia is definitely moving military equipment to Belarus. pic.twitter.com/LJzgBzx4mQ

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) December 19, 2022

“Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Ukrainian strikes left around 14,000 people without power in a district of the Belgorod region,” the report indicated. 

Another among Moscow’s red lines is the potential for Washington to provide Ukraine with Patriot anti-air defense missiles. The White House is said to be finalizing plans, however, could be stalling the decision especially given the latest maneuvering between Russian and Belarus.

In what appears to be a forceful attempt to squash rumors that it is suffering from a liquidity shortage amid a surge in outflows which sent its native token plunging to the lowest level since June, moments ago Binance – the world’s largest crypto exchange – announced that its US sub (BAM Trading Services aka Binance US) would acquire the asset of bankrupt crypto lender Voyager Digital for $1 billion. While it is unclear if this is the long-awaited injection of new capital that sets the lows in the crypto space, or just an attempt by CZ to pull an SBF and shuttle funds between two entities, remains to be seen.

According to the press release, the Binance.US bid “sets a clear path forward for Voyager customer funds to be unlocked as soon as possible” and is comprised of (i) the fair market value of Voyager’s cryptocurrency portfolio at a to-be-determined date in the future, which at current market prices is estimated to be $1.002 billion, plus (ii) additional consideration equal to $20 million of incremental value.

So really all Binance is doing is buying Voyager’s crypto portfolio and throwing in $20 million for tip value.

The release also noted that the Company’s claims against Three Arrows Capital remain with the bankruptcy estate, and any future recovery on these and other non-released claims will be distributed to the estate’s creditors.

Here is the press release:

Voyager Digital Ltd. (“Voyager” or the “Company”) (OTC Pink VYGVQ; FRA: UCD2) announced today that its operating company Voyager Digital LLC selected U.S. exchange BAM Trading Services Inc. (doing business as “Binance.US”) as the highest and best bid for its assets after a review of strategic options with the core objective of maximizing the value returned to customers and other creditors on an expedited timeframe.

Binance.US is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA, and is incorporated in Delaware. It is an independent legal entity and has a licensing agreement with Binance.com.

The Binance.US bid, which sets a clear path forward for Voyager customer funds to be unlocked as soon as possible, is valued at approximately $1.022 billion and is comprised of (i) the fair market value of Voyager’s cryptocurrency portfolio at a to-be-determined date in the future, which at current market prices is estimated to be $1.002 billion, plus (ii) additional consideration equal to $20 million of incremental value. The Company’s claims against Three Arrows Capital remain with the bankruptcy estate, and any future recovery on these and other non-released claims will be distributed to the estate’s creditors.

The Binance.US bid aims to return crypto to customers in kind, in accordance with court-approved disbursements and platform capabilities.

Binance.US will make a $10 million good faith deposit and will reimburse Voyager for certain expenses up to a maximum of $15 million. Should the deal not close by April 18, 2023 subject to a one-month extension, the agreement allows Voyager to immediately move to return value to customers.

Voyager Digital LLC will seek Bankruptcy Court approval to enter into the asset purchase agreement between Voyager Digital LLC and Binance.US at a hearing on January 5, 2023. The sale to Binance.US will be consummated pursuant to a Chapter 11 plan, which will be subject to a creditor vote and is subject to other customary closing conditions. Binance.US and the Company will work to close the transaction promptly following approval of the chapter 11 plan by the Bankruptcy Court.

This sale agreement follows Voyager’s July 5, 2022 entrance into a voluntary restructuring process aimed at returning maximum value to customers. Additional information about the timeline and customer access to crypto will be shared as it becomes available. A copy of the asset purchase agreement and other pleadings filed in this case may be obtained free of charge by visiting the Voyager case website https://cases.stretto.com/Voyager.

Voyager was advised by Kirkland & Ellis LLP, Moelis & Company LLC, and Berkeley Research Group. Binance.US was advised by Latham & Watkins LLP.

In response to the news, BNB – which tumbled as low as $220 early on Saturday amid growing FUD, bounced to recover almost all losses sparked by the recent outflow fears.