Authored by Alastair Crooke,

The U.S. government is hostage to its financial hegemony in a way that is rarely fully understood…

It is the miscalculation of this era – one that may begin the collapse of dollar primacy, and therefore, global compliance with U.S. political demands, too. But its most grievous content is that it corners the U.S. into promoting dangerous Ukrainian escalation against Russia directly (i.e. Crimea).

Washington dares not – indeed cannot – yield on dollar primacy, the ultimate signifier for ‘American decline’. And so the U.S. government is hostage to its financial hegemony in a way that is rarely fully understood.

The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it.

Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.

What then is this ‘Great Surprise’ – the almost completely unforeseen event of recent geo-politics that has so shaken U.S. expectations, and which takes the world to the precipice?

It is, in a word, Resilience.

The Resilience displayed by the Russian economy after the West had committed the entire weight of its financial resources to crushing Russia. The West bore down on Russia in every conceivable way – via financial, cultural and psychological war – and with real military war as the follow-through.

Yet, Russia has survived, and survived relatively handsomely. It is doing ‘okay’ – maybe better, even, than many Russia insiders were expecting. The ‘Anglo’ Intelligence services however, had assured EU leaders not to worry; it’s ‘slam dunk’; Putin cannot possibly survive. Rapid financial and political collapse, they promised, was certain under the tsunami of western sanctions.

Their analysis represents an Intelligence failure on a par with the non-existent Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. But instead of critical re-examination, as events failed to provide confirmation, they doubled down. But two such failures are just ‘too much’ to bear.

So why does this ‘failed expectation’ constitute such a world-shaking moment for our era? It is because the West fears that its miscalculation might well lead to the collapse of its dollar hegemony. But the fear extends well beyond that too – (bad as ‘that’ would be from the U.S. perspective).

Robert Kagan has outlined how external forward motion and the U.S.’ ‘global mission’ is the lifeblood of American internal polity – more than any equivocating nationalism, Professor Paul suggests. From the founding of the country, the U.S. has been an expansionary republican empire; without this forward motion, civic bonds of domestic unity come into question. If Americans are not united for expansionary republican greatness, by what purpose Professor Paul asks, are all these fissiparous races, creeds, and cultures in America, bound together? (Woke culture has proved no solution, being divisive rather than any pole around which unity can be built).

The point here is that Russian Resilience, at a single stroke, shattered the plate-glass floor to western convictions about its ability to ‘manage the world’. After the several western debacles centred on regime-change by military shock-and-awe, even hardened neo-cons – by 2006 – had conceded that a weaponised financial system was the only means to ‘secure the Empire’.

But this conviction has now been upended – and states around the world have taken notice.

This shock of miscalculation is all the greater because the West disdainfully had taken Russia to be a backward economy, with a GDP on a par to that of Spain. In an interview with Le Figaro last week, Professor Emmanuel Todd noted that Russia and Belarus, taken together, constitute only 3.3% of global GDP. The French historian questioned therefore, ‘how then is it possible that these states could have shown such resilience – in the face of the full force of the financial onslaught’?

Well, firstly, as Professor Todd underlined, ‘GDP’ as a measure of economic resilience is wholly “fictional”. Contrary to its name, GDP measures only aggregate expenditures. And that much of what is recorded as ‘production’, such the over-inflated billing for medical treatment in the U.S.’ and (said, tongue in cheek) services such as the hundreds of economists’ and bank analysts’ highly-paid analysis, are not production, per se, but “water vapour”.

Russia’s resilience, Todd attests, is due to the fact that it has a real economy of production. “War is the ultimate test of a political economy”, he notes. “It is the Great Revealer”.

And what is it that has been revealed? It has revealed another quite unexpected and shocking outcome – one that sends western commentators reeling – that Russia has not run out of missiles. ‘An economy the size of Spain, the western media ask, how can such a tiny economy sustain a prolonged war of attrition by NATO without running out of munitions?’.

But, as Todd outlines, Russia has been able to sustain its weapons-supply because it has a real economy of production that has the capacity to maintain a war – and the West no longer does. The West fixated on its misleading metric of GDP – and with its normalcy bias – is shocked that Russia has the capacity to outpace NATO’s arms inventories. Russia was billed by western analysts as a ‘paper tiger’ – a label that now seems more likely to apply to NATO.

The import of the ‘Great Surprise’ – of Russian Resilience – resulting from its real economy of production vis á vis the evident weakness of the hyper-financialised western model scrabbling for sources of munitions has not been lost on the rest of the world.

There is old history here. In the lead-up to WW1, the British Establishment was concerned that they might lose the coming war with Germany: British banks tended to lend short-term, in a ‘pump and dump’ approach, whereas German banks invested directly in long-term real-economy industrial projects – and therefore were thought to be able to better sustain war materiel supply.

Even then, the Anglo élite had a quiet appreciation of the inherent frailty to a heavily financialised system for which they compensated by simply expropriating the resources of a huge Empire to finance preparation for the coming Great War.

The backdrop then, is that the U.S. inherited the Anglo financialising approach which it subsequently turbo-charged when the U.S. was forced off the gold standard by ballooning budget deficits. The U.S. needed to attract the world’s ‘savings’ into the U.S., by which to finance its Vietnam war deficits.

The rest of Europe from the 19th century outset had been wary of Adam Smith’s ‘Anglo-model’. Friedreich List complained that the Anglos assumed that the ultimate measure of a society is always its level of consumption (expenditure – and hence the GDP metric). In the long run, List argued, a society’s well-being and its overall wealth were determined not by what the society can buy, but by what it can make (i.e. value coming from the real, self-sufficient economy).

The German school argued that emphasizing consumption would eventually be self-defeating. It would bias the system away from wealth creation, and ultimately make it impossible to consume as much, or to employ so many. Hindsight suggests List was correct in his analysis.

‘War – is the ultimate test – and Great Revealer’ (per Todd). The roots to an alternative economic view had lingered on in both Germany and Russia (with Sergei Witte), despite the recent preponderance of the hyper-financialised Anglo-model.

And now with the ‘Great Reveal’, the focus on the real economy is seen as a key insight underpinning the New Global Order, differentiating it sharply in terms both of economic systems and philosophy from the western sphere.

The new order is separating from the old, not just in terms of economic system and philosophy, but through a reconfiguring of the neurons through which trade and culture travels. Old trade routes are being bypassed and left to wither – to be replaced by waterways, pipelines and corridors that avoid all the choke points by which the West can physically control commerce.

The north-east Arctic passage, for example, has opened an inter-Asian trade. The untapped oil and gas fields of the Arctic eventually will fill the gaps in supplies resulting from an ideology that seeks to end investment by western oil and gas majors in fossil fuels. The North-South corridor (now open) links St Petersburg to Bombay. Another component links waterways from northern Russia to the Black Sea, the Caspian and from thence to the south. Yet another component is expected to pipe Caspian gas from the Caspian pipeline network south to a Persian Gulf gas ‘hub’.

Look at it in this way, it is as if the neural connectors in the real economic matrix are, as it were, being lifted up from the west, and are being set down in a new location to the East. If Suez was the waterway of the European era, and the Panama Canal represented that of the American Century, then the north-east Arctic waterway, the North-South corridors and the African railway nexus will be that of the Eurasian era.

In essence, the New Order is preparing to sustain a long economic conflict with the West.

Here, we return to the ‘Egregious Miscalculation’. This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.

In this respect, this highly financialised dollar paradigm possesses qualities reminiscent of a sophisticated Ponzi scheme: It pulls in ‘new investors’, attracted by zero-cost credit leverage and the promise of ‘assured’ returns (assets pumped ever upwards by Fed liquidity). But the lure of ‘assured returns’ is tacitly underwritten by the inflation of one asset ‘bubble’ after another, in a regular sequence of bubbles – inflated at zero cost – before being finally ‘dumped’. The process then, is ‘rinsed and repeated’ ad seriatim.

Here is the point: Like a true Ponzi, this system relies on constant, and ever more, ‘new’ money coming into the scheme, to offset ‘payments out’ (financing U.S. government expenditure). Which is to say, U.S. hegemony now depends on constant overseas dollar expansion.

And, as with any pure Ponzi, once ‘money in’ falters, or redemptions spike, the scheme collapses.

It was to prevent the world quitting the dollar scheme for a new global trading order that the signal was ordered to be promulgated, via the onslaught on Russia, to warn that to quit the scheme would bring U.S. Treasury sanctions upon you, and to crash you.

But then came TWO game-changing shocks, in close succession: Inflation and interest rates spiralled, devaluing the value of fiat currencies such as the dollar and undermining the promise of ‘assured returns’; and secondly, Russia DID NOT COLLAPSE under financial Armageddon.

The ‘dollar Ponzi’ falls; U.S. markets fall; the dollar falls in value (vis á vis commodities).

This scheme might be felled by Russian Resilience – and by much of the planet peeling away into a separate economic model, no longer dependent on the dollar for its trading needs. (i.e., new ‘money in’ to the dollar ‘Ponzi’ turns negative, just as ‘money out’ explodes, with the U.S. having to finance ever bigger deficits (now domestically)).

Washington clearly made a stratospherically bad error in thinking that sanctions – and the assumed collapse of Russia – would be a ‘slam dunk’ outcome; one so self-evident that it required no rigorous ‘thinking through’.

Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).

Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.

Authored by Isaac Orr via RealClearPolicy.com,

Mississippi residents are consistently told that renewable energy sources, like solar panels, are now the lowest-cost ways to generate electricity, but these claims are based on creative accounting gimmicks that only examine a small portion of the expenses incurred to integrate solar onto the grid while excluding many others.

When these hidden expenses are accounted for, it becomes obvious that solar is much more expensive than Mississippi’s existing coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants and that adding more solar will increase electricity prices for the families and businesses that rely upon it. One of the most common ways of estimating the cost of generating electricity from different types of power plants is a metric called the Levelized Cost of Energy, or LCOE.

The LCOE is an estimate of the long-term average cost of producing electricity from a power plant. These values are estimated by taking the costs of the plant, such as the money needed to build and operate it, fuel costs, and the cost to borrow money, and dividing them by the amount of electricity generated by the plant (generally megawatt hours) over its useful lifetime.

In other words, LCOE estimates are essentially like calculating the cost of your car on a per-mile-driven basis after accounting for expenses like initial capital investment, loan and insurance payments, fuel costs, and maintenance.

We can estimate the LCOE of new solar facilities in Mississippi by using overnight capital cost estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Electricity Market Module and other state-specific factors. We can then compare the cost of solar to the real-world cost data for the coal and natural gas generators at the Victor J. Daniel Jr. Generating Plant, and the Grand Gulf nuclear power plant using the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 1 database.

The graph below shows that electricity generated by new solar panels would cost $50.67 per megawatt hour when accounting for the fact that monopoly utilities are allowed to increase electricity prices to cover the cost of building any new solar facilities that receive approval from the Mississippi Public Service Commission, plus a ten percent rate of return, shown as “utility profits,” below.

Center of the American Experiment

These cost estimates are, I should point out, for the unsubsidized cost of solar – what you might call the real, or underlying cost of producing it. This matters because the Biden administration’s enormous $370 billion so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” offers massive subsidies for solar, which on the surface seem to reduce the cost of solar. In reality, what the IRA subsidies do is reduce the cost paid by some by passing on the costs to the taxpayer. Subsidy, in other words, does not change the underlying costs of solar, which remain unattractive no matter how many inducements the federal government offers us to go solar.

The most affordable electricity in the state was generated by the combined cycle (CC) natural gas units at the Victor J. Daniel Generating Plant at a cost $30.31 per MWh, based on the 2021 delivered cost of natural gas, which was $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), and electricity generation. Natural gas prices might have risen recently, but even at these increased prices, natural gas gives Mississippians better value than solar.  So, too, does nuclear.  

The next most affordable power plant was the Grand Gulf nuclear facility, which generated electricity for $32.10 per MWh, based on 2021 output. Lastly, the coal units at the Victor J. Daniel Generating Plant produced electricity for $43.83 per MWh, based on 2021 delivered coal prices of $2.55 per MMBtu and electricity generation.

But wait, there’s more.

Not only are solar panels more expensive than the existing natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants on Mississippi’s electric grid, but they also provide less value because they don’t provide electricity if the sun isn’t shining, which is most of the time.

Statistics from EIA show solar facilities in Mississippi only generated about 22 percent of their potential output in 2021, which means utility companies would need to install 450 megawatts (MW) of solar to generate 100 MW of electricity, on average, over the course of a year, requiring a huge overbuild of capacity to get the same annual energy output.

Creating an electric grid capable of incorporating all of these extra solar panels will require taking thousands more of acres of land, building more transmission lines to connect these panels to the grid, and moving the power to where it is needed. These costs, including the property taxes associated with the land, the lines, and the other equipment, will be passed along to customers through their electricity rates. 

According to the Midcontinent Independent Systems Operator (MISO), these transmission lines routinely cost between $2.5 million and $3.1 million per mile. Despite their enormous price tag, solar advocates don’t usually include these transmission costs in their LCOE calculations because they are inconvenient.

Lastly, it is important to remember that no matter how many solar panels are installed in Mississippi, the electricity needs of the state will still require the use of natural gas power plants or expensive new battery storge facilities to provide electricity when the sun isn’t shining, which happens every night. As a result, Mississippi families and businesses are forced to pay for two electric systems: one that works when the sun is out, and one that works when it isn’t. 

The data are clear: when all these costs are added up, we see that solar is much more expensive than using Mississippi’s existing natural gas, coal, or nuclear power plants. Therefore, the Mississippi Public Service Commissioners should protect ratepayers from the unnecessary cost increases that will inevitably result from building more solar facilities in the Magnolia state. 

*  *  *

Isaac Orr is a policy fellow specializing in energy and environmental policy at Center of the American Experiment.

A lawsuit filed in federal court in Nevada alleges hotel operators on the Las Vegas Strip colluded to overcharge visitors for rooms through an algorithm designed to artificially inflate prices above competitive levels, Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

Caesars Entertainment, Treasure Island, Wynn Resorts Holdings, and MGM Resorts International were named in the suit for allegedly sharing a price algorithm to set hotel rates instead of making “independent pricing and supply decisions,” according to the lawsuit, filed Wednesday.

The operator of the algorithm, Rainmaker Group Unlimited, a revenue management firm owned by Cendyn Group, was also named as a defendant for allowing “algorithmic-driven price-fixing … at the expense of consumers and in violation of antitrust laws.” 

Two people, one from Washington state and another in Florida, filed the lawsuit. Both stayed in the defendants’ hotel rooms and claimed the shared pricing data allowed hotel operators to “defy supply and demand dynamics.” 

“Our antitrust attorneys have uncovered what appears to be an unlawful agreement in which Rainmaker collects and shares data between Vegas hotel competitors to unlawfully raise prices of hotel rooms,” plaintiffs’ attorney with Seattle-based law firm Hagens Berman wrote in a statement. 

“What happens in Vegas will no longer stay in Vegas. We intend to expose the under-the-table deals perpetrated by these Vegas hotels, and we intend to hold them accountable,” the attorney continued. 

The plaintiffs’ lawsuit quoted confidential witnesses, a Rainmaker executive and two former employees, who estimated 90% of Vegas hotels use Rainmaker’s algorithm. 

Rainmaker “collects confidential price information from each of the hotel operators, and then tells them, through use of various algorithms, how to price,” the lawsuit alleged.

“The suit is the latest in a growing wave of antitrust cases to take aim at algorithmic models or data brokering services allegedly used to facilitate price coordination across an entire industry. The allegations echo dozens of recently filed suits hitting the country’s top residential landlords with similar claims,” Bloomberg said. 

Authored by Eurasianet via OilPrice.com,

The harshest winter since 2008 is contributing to shortages of staple vegetables across Central Asia and sending prices north in a region still suffering from COVID-induced food inflation. 

In Uzbekistan, record frosts have highlighted the shortcomings of the national energy system as even residents of the capital spent days on end without power. But the cold has also hammered the agriculture sector in the region’s most populous country.

On January 20, the Uzbek agriculture minister announced a four-month ban on exports of onions after prices doubled in three weeks.

The title of the ministry’s press release – “there are reserves of onions in Uzbekistan” – hints at panic. 

Once among the cheapest onions produced by former Soviet countries, Uzbek onions are now as expensive as onions from countries like Georgia and Moldova, the ministry said, reaching 6,000-8,000 sum (53-71 cents) per kilo.

While the frosts have ruined part of the onion stock in storage, that is not the only source of pressure on prices. Vast energy deficits have strained logistics, with gas stations shut down and roads covered in ice, the ministry said.

In comments to private news website Gazeta.uz, one resident of Bukhara region gave an account of this perfect storm: “Due to the closure of gas stations, there are problems with public transport. On Tuesday we went to the market and did not see a single bus. The only thing left is taxis. Food prices have gone up. They say that goods are not being brought from Tashkent. There are no sellers at the Kholkhozni bazaar because vegetables and fruits have frozen.” 

Potatoes have also jumped in price since the start of the year – by 14 percent, reported specialist agriculture news site East Fruit last week.

Price shifts elsewhere in Central Asia have been less severe, but experts say the true impact of the deep freeze will become apparent in the coming weeks and months. 

A consultant for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in Tajikistan, Bakhtiyor Abduvokhidov, told East Fruit that carrots could become scarce soon, noting that Tajik farmers tended to store harvested carrots in the ground due to a lack of warmer storage space. 

“It is still impossible to say how they [the carrots] endured the frosts – we need to wait for the soil to thaw and the first batches to be dug out to assess the damage,” Abduvokhidov said. “However, since the temperature in the regions where carrots remained in the ground for several days in a row dropped to -15 Celsius at night, it can be assumed that they are damaged.” 

Kazakhstan last week followed Uzbekistan’s lead in banning exports of root vegetables.

The Ministry of Trade and Integration on January 22 said that prices for Kazakh onions had risen more than 5 percent in the space of a week.

Minister Serik Zhumangarin told journalists two days later that there are around 150,000 tons of onions in the country – enough for around five months, but less than authorities had previously thought. The reason for onions disappearing, Zhumangarin argued, was surging demand in Uzbekistan and Russia, as well as Pakistan, a major producer that suffered floods last summer and now has a deficit of the vegetable. (In the months before the cold snap, East Fruit reported that Uzbekistan was ramping up onion exports to the South Asian nation.)

Zhumangarin said his ministry is working with officials at the border to prevent smuggling.  

Kazakhstan posted Central Asia’s highest figure for food inflation last year, at over 25 percent, partly powered by fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.  

After deadly unrest last January, authorities are especially anxious about this trend. In one measure to avert price spikes, the trade ministry said it had ordered Kazakhstan’s regions to buy from producers in the agriculture-rich southern Turkestan region. 

But there, too, the frosts have wreaked havoc, with Turkestan’s greenhouses – more than two thirds of Kazakhstan’s total – witnessing large scale harvest failures. 

Turkestan farmers interviewed by local outlet Otyrar.kz blamed poor-quality coal for the season’s losses, saying the fuel had failed to warm heating pipes inside the structures. One tomato grower told Otyrar that his operation had planned to harvest over 1,200 tons but managed just 250 tons, with the rest of the produce going to waste. 

Another initiative that the trade ministry believes will stabilize the local onion market is an agreement to purchase 6,000 tons from Tajikistan. 

Authorities in Tajikistan’s Khatlon’s region say they have reached export agreements with Kazakhstan’s ambassador and a delegation of Kazakh businessmen and sounded positive notes on the potential for ramping up agricultural exports to Kazakhstan.

Dushanbe seems ambivalent to the effect that this might have on domestic prices. 

According to a report by independent news outlet Asia-Plus, Tajik onion prices have tripled year-on-year to reach around 73 cents per kilogram, measured against the official exchange rate. An agriculture expert quoted by the website said that the most recent onion harvest in Tajikistan had been successful, with only “minor losses.”  

Tech layoff announcements continue to rise by the week. The latest notable firms to slash headcount to survive tightening monetary conditions and increasing risk of recession include Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Amazon. After every announcement, either leaked onto Twitter or published on the company’s website is a copy of the layoff memo from the CEO to staff. 

Over the last several quarters, we’ve read dozens of layoff memos from tech CEOs. We notice CEOs are usually blunt and to the point about firings in the first paragraph or draw out the inevitable to the very end. 

So far, 219 tech companies have fired 68,149 workers, according to the latest data from the layoff tracker website Layoffs.fyi. Last year, 1,040 tech companies fired 160,000 employees. 

With every firing comes a memo to staff. And we wonder just how many corporate execs tried to use OpenAI’s text generator ChatGPT to compose a layoff letter — after all, the AI-powered tool can write college essays, pass exams, and even apply for jobs. So how easy could writing a one-pager about firing employees be?

We tested this and asked ChatGPT to “compose a memo announcing massive layoffs.” 

And it didn’t deliver:

“I’m sorry, I am not able to compose a memo announcing massive layoffs as it would not be appropriate and could be considered insensitive. Instead, I suggest seeking guidance from a human resources professional or management team to ensure that any communication regarding layoffs is handled in a sensitive and professional manner.” 

Here’s a screenshot of the response. 

We couldn’t help think of how this worked out before…

It appears ChatGPT’s AI trainers might have censored such a response. The question is why, well, perhaps it’s to protect the view of AI development. If fired employees found out their CEO sent a layoff notice written by AI, that would be negative press for the company and the technology. 

This means all those tech execs who are about to fire thousands of more workers in the months ahead might have to actually put some thought into writing such a letter. 

By John Gallagher of FreightWaves,

The latest data from the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse reveals that drug use among commercial drivers may be at its highest level since the federal repository was set up in 2019 — but more are being cleared to drive again as well.

Total drug violations reported into the clearinghouse in 2022, including positive tests and refusals to take a drug test, increased 18% to 69,668 compared with last year’s 59,011, according to the most recent statistics released this week by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. That rate almost doubled the 9.2% annual increase in drug violations reported in 2021.

Much of the increase can be attributed to violations related to marijuana, the substance identified most in positive tests. Marijuana violations increased 31.6% in 2022 compared with 2021, to 40,916. That compares to a 5.3% increase between 2020 and 2021.

In fact, positive drug tests reported into the clearinghouse in 2022 increased in 12 of 14 substances tracked by the database, with only hydrocodone and heroin showing decreases.

Some of the increase in total violations can be attributed to the fact that completed registrations from drivers, employers and third-party organizations have been added each year since the clearinghouse began accepting registrations in September 2019. However, the number of registrations added annually has steadily declined since 2020 as the database gradually fills with all FMCSA-regulated registrants.

Regarding marijuana specifically, there has been speculation that increasingly liberal state marijuana laws could also be a factor — even though federal law preempts state law regarding the use of both medicinal and recreational marijuana by commercial drivers.

“While the numbers are a little jarring, it is clear the clearinghouse is working as intended,” P. Sean Garney, co-director of Scopelitis Transportation Consulting, which specializes in truck safety, regulations and compliance, told FreightWaves.

Garney pointed to data in the report showing that there were double the number of positive tests for preemployment screening versus positive tests taken randomly from drivers last year.

“It’s far more common for a driver to test positive in a preemployment environment, and before the clearinghouse, carriers had no way to know if a driver they were considering was prohibited from operating a [commercial motor vehicle] based on that test,” Garney said. “[This data] shows me the system works.”

In addition, the data shows that more drivers are getting rehabilitated and reentering the trucking workforce, he said. At the end of 2020, only 12.5% of drivers who had tested positive had been cleared to drive again. In 2021 that number increased to 22.7%, and it increased again in 2022 to 27.6%.

Garney also noted that starting on Jan. 6 — after three full years of clearinghouse operation — motor carriers were no longer required to query a driver’s previous employer to request drug and alcohol testing histories, because they are now able to go back three years within the clearinghouse.

“Some carriers have been nervous that eliminating the previous employer inquiry might cause them to miss important information about a driver’s drug testing history,” he said.

However, with more than 3 million drivers and over 443,000 employers registered, “the clearinghouse is operating at full tilt and as intended, making it a great source of truth for this information. This should make wary carriers feel better about streamlining their procedures by using the clearinghouse.”

Eight people were killed and ten more wounded when a gunman opened fire outside an east Jerusalem synagogue Friday night, according to the official Twitter account of the Israel Foreign Ministry. 

8 killed, 10 injured in synagogue in #Jerusalem 🇮🇱 terror attack

Paramedics have arrived onto the scene and began providing treatment to those injured.

— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) January 27, 2023

AP News said the gunman was Palestinian. Police said the attacker was “neutralized” by security forces while attempting to flee the scene. 

❗️ At least 7 people were killed and 10 others injured in a shooting in #Jerusalem

It is reported that an unidentified man entered a synagogue in the Neve Yaakov district in eastern Jerusalem while praying and shot people. The shooter has been eliminated.

📰 The Jerusalem Post pic.twitter.com/gstX04EMPe

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) January 27, 2023

Horrific images of carnage following terrorist attack at #Jerusalem synagogue. I took the photos from #Hamas telegram channel. They are celebrating the deaths of innocent civilians that only wanted to pray and celebrate the sabbath. pic.twitter.com/djUmM3IycL

— LTC (R) Peter Lerner (@LTCPeterLerner) January 27, 2023

US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel condemned the deadly attack, calling it “absolutely horrific.” 

“We condemn this apparent terrorist attack in the strongest terms. Our commitment to Israel’s security remains ironclad, and we are in direct touch with our Israeli partners,” Patel told reporters. 

The attack came amid soaring tensions between Israel–Palestine, some of the worst in years. Thursday was the deadliest day in the occupied West Bank in two decades after Israeli armed forces raided a building in Jenin and killed nine people. In response, rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. The Palestinian Authority halted all security coordination with Israel. 

On Friday, Israeli Defence Force said fighter jets bombed Gaza, targeting what’s believed to be a military base and an underground rocket manufacturing plant operated by Hamas. 

While all eyes are on Ukraine, Israel continues to drop bombs on Gaza and Syria, regularly, and no one even bats an eyelash. https://t.co/raVJnVmZqt

— sarah (@sahouraxo) January 27, 2023

The eruption in violence comes ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s weekend visit to Israel and the West Bank.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: What is the idea behind the so-called “Great Reset?”

Nick Giambruno: We’ve seen countless examples of the self-identified elite in the West using that term.

But let me first ask, who put these people in charge? Who anointed them the leaders of the world?

They’re not only talking about resetting the financial system but dramatically changing the nature of life.

I think something sinister is going on, and they’re not even trying to hide it anymore. It’s all in the open now.

So, let me try to summarize something incredibly complex.

These people recognize the current international monetary system based on the US dollar is on its way out. Even Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, acknowledges that the US dollar’s supremacy is fading.

Although they would prefer to continue milking the current system, they realize it’s failing and the need to bridge the gap to a new system which they hope to control.

Nobody knows what the next international monetary system will look like—not even the elites. However, they know what they want it to look like.

They want a complete control grid with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), movement licenses, mandatory medical procedures, and a social credit system, among other nasty things.

Simply put, the Great Reset agenda is a high-tech, totalitarian, global panopticon.

In short, they want total control over you in all domains—a new feudalism.

They’re emotionally manipulating people with fear and false narratives into accepting things they ordinarily wouldn’t—like their enslavement.

That’s what their Great Reset agenda is all about. It’s self-evidently anathema to personal freedom, human dignity, and self-determination.

Whether the self-proclaimed elites get all or some of those things is an open question.

The best scenario for mankind would be for most major governments to go bankrupt—which they are well on their way to—before they can implement the Great Reset agenda.

International Man: It seems changing the money so that governments can have more control over people is a big part of this plan. How do you see it?

Nick Giambruno: I see it like this.

Don’t let any government, whether it’s the US government, the Chinese government, or a global government entity like the IMF, tell you what money is.

Money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been brainwashed into believing.

It would be similar to transporting yourself back in time and asking the average person in the Soviet Union, “Where do shoes come from?”

They would say, “Well, the government makes the shoes. Where else could they come from? Who else could make the shoes?”

It’s the same mentality here regarding money today—except it’s much more widespread.

The truth is money doesn’t need to come from the government any more than shoes do.

People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times.

However, for over 2,500 years, gold has been mankind’s most enduring form of money.

Gold didn’t become money by accident or because some politicians decreed it. Instead, it became money because countless individuals throughout history and across many different civilizations subjectively came to the same conclusion: gold is money.

It resulted from a market process of people looking for the best way to store and exchange value.

So, why did they go to gold? What makes gold attractive as money?

Here’s why.

Gold has a set of unique characteristics that make it suitable as money.

Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most important, it’s the “hardest” of all physical commodities. In other words, gold is “hard to produce” relative to existing stockpiles and the one physical commodity most resistant to inflation of its supply. That’s what gives gold its monetary properties.

Bitcoin shares many of gold’s monetary characteristics. Like physical gold, Bitcoin does not have counterparty risk, and nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply.

Here’s the bottom line.

I would encourage people to be sovereign individuals and recognize what works best for them as a vehicle to store and exchange value, rather than thoughtlessly accepting whatever the government gives them as money.

International Man: What makes government money dangerous?

Nick Giambruno: Governments reap enormous power from their racket of printing fake money out of thin air and forcing their citizens to use it. Whether it’s Venezuela, Lebanon, Argentina, or the US, it’s the same scam. It allows governments to act like vampires and feast on their citizens’ savings.

Imagine if you had that kind of immense power?

You could create something with little to no effort and then force everyone else to accept and use it as money. You could create paper wealth out of thin air and cut your enemies off from the economy. You’d be very powerful.

That’s why all governments treasure their monopoly on money.

Remember, government money is political money. It’s a potent tool to steal from and control you.

Remember what happened to the truckers in Canada in early 2022? With no due process or judicial review, the Canadian government seized their bank accounts at the flip of a switch. The government granted itself the power and made it a simple administrative task.

We will see many more of these kinds of actions—and more severe ones—soon.

International Man: What can the average person do about this?

Nick Giambruno: I’ve studied money, monetary policy, and monetary history. I’ve been to Zimbabwe, Argentina, Lebanon, and other countries that have experienced hyperinflation.

In my view, the most important attribute of money is that it is hard to produce—its “hardness.” In other words, something that is resistant to inflation of its supply.

Think of money like a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

Would you want to put that in something that somebody else can create with no effort or cost?

Of course, you wouldn’t.

It would be like storing your life savings in Chuck E. Cheese arcade tokens or airline frequent flyer miles. Putting your savings into government currencies isn’t that much different.

What you want to do is to put your money into something that someone else cannot make easily.

Here’s the bottom line.

The vast majority of humanity does not understand what makes for a good money. Instead, they’ve been hypnotized into believing something inferior—the scraps of paper or digital entries that governments can create with no effort—is good money.

It’s a sad state of affairs and one of the biggest swindles in human history.

To enact their Great Reset agenda, the elites count on the average person not understanding the issues around money. They are relying on people blindly swallowing their poisonous CBDCs.

The most effective thing the average person can do to fight against this agenda is not to store their life force in government currencies. That way, the government—and the elites behind them—cannot use inflation to siphon off your monetary energy to fund their nefarious plans.

The idea is to put a meaningful portion of your savings into hard assets, apolitical, neutral money that has no counterparty risk and is resistant to inflation.

I put physical gold coins in your possession, as well as Bitcoin, in that category. But only Bitcoin where you control the private keys and do not depend on the permission of a third party—like an exchange or custodian—to access your money.

There’s much more to cover…

*  *  *

I have more details in an urgent PDF report I just released on where this is all headed. It includes how to protect yourself and the best ways position yourself for big gains no matter what happens. It’s called “The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.” Click here to download the PDF it now.

US Macro data surprised to the upside this week (the biggest weekly jump in the macro surprise index since August 2022) helping lift global macro notably higher, sparking hopes for a ‘soft landing‘ (or no landing?)…

Source: Bloomberg

Digging into the data, it is very much the Labor market that is holding up the macro data, as ‘soft’ survey data slumps… (so let’s hope all these mass layoffs don’t ever show up in the official data)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, the ‘soft landing’ narrative pushed Fed rate trajectory expectations hawkishly firmer… Translation – the market has removed 10bps of expected easing from the second half of 2023 in the last week or so….

Source: Bloomberg

But the markets ignored all that and pushed financial conditions to their loosest level since August (dramatically pulling forward expectations for The Fed to pivot to cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, financial conditions are as loose as they were in June of last year, 100s of bps of Fed Funds rate lower…

Source: Bloomberg

And financial conditions eased thanks in large part to soaring stocks this week. Led by Nasdaq (up 4 weeks in a row) which rallied over 5% (its best week since early Nov)

There was some aggressive selling into the close today which left The Dow almost unchanged (Nasdaq still managed a 1% gain)…

The meltup of the last couple of days was heavily influenced by 0DTE gamma squeezes and good old-fashioned short-squeezes. Today saw ‘most shorted’ stocks soar almost 7% – the biggest short-squeeze day since Nov 10th (3rd biggest short-squeeze day in 18 months)

Source: Bloomberg

For context, unprofitable tech stocks ripped 13% off their lows on Wednesday morning (and are up 30% YTD)…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P is getting close to a golden cross (50DMA crossing above its 200DMA)…

Nasdaq closed above its 200DMA (at its highest since September)…

TSLA has been up for 6 straight days, rallying over 40% – its biggest such move since July 2020…

VIX was crushed this week to an 18 handle, but we do note that demand for downside protection has picked up as skews have started to accelerate…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the week with the long-end outperforming and the belly of the curve weakest (5Y +6bps, 30Y -3bps). Yields tumbled as stocks rallied today however during the US day session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week marginally lower (finding support at the May 2022 lows). NOTE that every day this week the dollar was dumped around the European close…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed this week with Bitcoin outperforming, up around 5% holding above $23,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum notably underperformed on the week (down around 2-3%), but has been lagging bitcoin significantly for two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed very modest gains this week, the 6th straight weekly gain for the precious metal…

Oil prices fell on the week with WTI back below $80…

NatGas fell for the 6th straight week, with Henry Hub trading at its lowest since April 2021 (bouncing off $3)…

Finally, we wonder do traders really think Jay Powell wants to see LUCID and all the worst stocks of last year (BZFD?) exploding blindly higher on the back of frontrunning The Fed’s potential for a pivot to a cut (not just a pause)…

Source: Bloomberg

Do traders really think The Fed will do that kind of pivot in the face of just a ‘soft landing’?

In fact, as Bloomberg pointed out today, the landing could be a lot harder. Analysts have pointed to diminishing pandemic stimulus cash cushions and a declining saving rate as reasons US consumers could ultimately pull back and tip the economy into recession.

Source: Bloomberg

Spending data show households did indeed cut back on purchases in the last two months of 2022. And at the same time, they started socking away more money throughout the fourth quarter, suggesting Americans may be preparing for tougher times ahead.

And the equity market is definitely not pricing in a harder-landing for the economy (no matter how quickly one believes the pivot would come).