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Farmers Celebrate As Ag Boom Sends Incomes Soaring

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Farmers Celebrate As Ag Boom Sends Incomes Soaring

Believe it or not, now is a great time to be a farmer. Agricultural commodities are set to lock in another year of annual gains, the longest stretch in decades, prompting higher farm incomes. 

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex, which tracks everything from corn, soybeans, and wheat to sugar and coffee, will lock in the fourth year of annual gains today.

Bloomberg said this would be the “longest stretch of annual gains since at least the early 1990s as drought and war cut production and erode inventories, keeping global food inflation simmering.” 

High prices for crops and livestock indicate boom times for the US farm belt, making farmers, ranchers, and agricultural firms all winners after a decade of sliding net farm income. 

According to the latest US Department of Agriculture forecast, US net farm income is expected to jump to $160.5 billion this year. If realized, farm income would be at the highest level since 1973 in inflation-adjusted dollars, which would be a significant reversal from the agricultural recession that crushed farmers in the last decade. 

Kenneth Zuckerberg, a senior economist at agricultural lender CoBank, told WSJ that farm income for the current cycle has probably peaked but will remain high in 2023. He said, “there’s no way it’ll be as good as 2022.” 

Perhaps all those millennials who were told “learn to code” only to be fired this year in a Federal Reserve-induced downcycle in tech might find more opportunity in farming. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 09:16

Blain: The Markets Are Full Of Idiots… Listen To Them

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Blain: The Markets Are Full Of Idiots… Listen To Them

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The difficulty, the extraordinary, is not to score 1,000 goals like Pele – it’s to score one goal like Pele.”

I was going to take the whole of this week off, but I could not resist a final comment on this, the very last business day of 2022…

2022 has been an … “interesting” year. What’s the main lesson we’ve learnt?

  • That interest rates don’t stay low for ever?

  • Inflation is real?

  • Real events overcome hopes and expectations?

  • All Ponzis are uncovered – sooner or later?

Or,

  • Financial markets are largely driven by idiots, shysters, charlatans and fools?

I suspect the final one contains a sizable element of truth.

Markets are just enormous voting machines calculating the opinion of every participant, therefore no single “idiot” can drive them.. but they can certainly influence how the other participants vote.

A few months ago I mentioned one of my favourite Sci Fi authors, John Scalzi. I’ve been reading him for years. He’s written some very clever series including Old Man’s War, and the off-the-wall Kaiju Preservation Society. He also written fantastic tales for the Netflix series Life, Death and Robots – with some very unsubtle digs at big tech barons! This week a client posted me this fascinating and insightful comment by Scalzi: The Worthless Billionaires of 2022

It is spot on.

Scalzi debunks the whole mythos of the assumed competence and virtue of billionaires with style and aplomb. He focuses on the implosion of value-bunkum across crypto and big-tech, and is particularly scathing about the self-immolation of Elon Musk. He warns on the danger of believing billionaires come with inherent virtue. Believe that, and it’s easy to follow dangerous ideological concepts like trickle-down economics – which simply doesn’t exist, btw!

Scalzi can be quite blunt: 

“Billionaires do not deserve your respect simply for being rich, and that fact that people gave them respect because of that money allowed them to cover for their other and continuing ethical and moral deficiencies, of which there are many, and which continue to damage our society.”

The thing is… Billionaires are the not the only folk we should probably not be unquestioningly listening to.

It’s a false assumption to think people in positions of power know what they are doing or understand what they are saying. 2022 has been an extraordinary year for seeing our idols exposed as mere craven images.

If there is one lesson from this difficult year, it’s the realisation most folk are not that clever. Understand that, and suddenly everything becomes clearer in terms of how markets are driven by behaviour.

Behavioural economics: understanding why markets function the way they do by understanding why participants act in the ways they do…

Markets tend to follow the noise. Trading floors are absolutely littered with people who believe they are bone-fide geniuses – and loudly tell us just how clever they are. Typically, the successful ones might have been dealt a lucky hand or make a fortunate throw and ascribe their success to smarts. In reality, most don’t have a breeze about what they are doing, or the damage they could inflict upon us all. They got lucky – but think they are clever. Danger, Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

Herd stupidity is a problem, but it’s also an opportunity. When you realise that its ok to question, disagree, argue and counter the propositions of the consensus (which is often built around luck and stupidity), then markets start to get interesting again! Understand why others are wrong, and you are halfway to grasping why you might be right.

2022 has been extraordinary for the sheer scale of mistakes people have made. The volume of miscalculations, most of which are then reinforced and magnified by denials and rebuttals after the initial mistakes have clearly been made, has been staggering.

From Liz Truss establishing herself as the least competent UK leader of all time, Putin beggaring Europe and Russia through the invasion of Ukraine, Musk buying Twitter, fund managers seeking bargains in big-tech, crypto-shills telling us this is the buy-moment before a new crypto-spring, to the man who is putting everything on Red because it’s come up Black the last three rolls (clue – its still a 50/50 discrete call), 2022 has been revelatory.

I suspect there are good reasons why 2022 represented “peak-silliness” in markets. We had a whole series of macro “behavioural” forces coinciding:

  • The end of the speculative era of easy QE money distorting markets

  • The instability in global systems from Covid, Supply Chains, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc

  • The growing income inequality caused by QE

  • Growing voter disenchantment and new generations feeling unwanted

  • FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) becoming a driver of wealth hopes

  • The rise of social media, fake news and news manipulation, and a pandemic of conspiracy theories..

Put all these trends/themes together, and its no wonder behaviours changed, people began to accept the unlikely as probable, and unquestioningly believed a pocketful of pixels was worth more than gold…

The bottom line is markets, and the factors that influence them, are full of idiots. They range from politicians making fundamental mistakes, fund managers dramatically mispricing risks, central bankers studiously miscalculating economic shifts, company boards focusing on all the wrong things, right the way down to investors who really did believe what the Reddit Boards told them.

It’s a skill to listen. Its even more skilful to question.

And on that piece of blindingly obscure advice….  Have a Guid and Prosperous New Year!

I will be back on Tuesday with my big worry for 2023 – The Bond Market!

*  *  *

Subscribe to Blain’s Morning Porridge here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 08:55

The Top 500 Richest People In The World Lost $1.4 Trillion In 2022

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The Top 500 Richest People In The World Lost $1.4 Trillion In 2022

We already know that 2022 was a torrid year for markets – but the extent of the damage to the top 500 richest people in the world has finally been quantified, and the damage is nothing short of massive. 

According to Bloomberg, the richest 500 people in the world – consisting of names like Elon Musk, and even Sam Bankman-Fried, lost a stunning $1.4 billion throughout the course of the year as Russia’s war on Ukraine and inflation catalyzed an ugly year for equity markets. 

Musk, in addition to Jeff Bezos, Changpeng Zhao and Mark Zuckerberg, saw a combined $392 billion in paper wealth evaporate over the course of the year. For Musk, the damage was considerable – he’s worth $138 billion less than he was when the year started, Bloomberg reported

But it wasn’t all losses for the super rich throughout the year. The report noes that the Kochs and the Mars families both saw an uptick in their fortunes. Bloomberg also reported that sports franchises also became more valuable in 2022 than they were the year prior. 

The report broke down the biggest losses on a per-month basis for 2022. 

In January, Musk lost $25.8 billion when Tesla warned about its business due to supply challenges. In February, Russian oligarchs saw $46.6 billion in wealth evaporate as a result of Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine. In March, China was the victim when $64.6 billion due to “trenuous Covid-containment efforts, a buckling property market, heightened scrutiny of the tech industry and trade tensions with the US.”

In April, Musk started what would become his eventual bid for Twitter, making a plan to borrow up to $21 billion in cash to finance the purchase. In May, soccer team Chelsea is bought for $5.25 billion – the highest price ever paid for a sports team. Shortly thereafter, in June, the Denver Broncos sells for $4.65 billion. 

Heading into the summer, pain for Chinese homebuyers continued, causing Yang Huiyan to lose the title of Asia’s wealthiest woman. By the time the fall came around, Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth is down $71 billion on the year. He’ll eventually fall 19 ranks on the Bloomberg wealth index, the report says. 

In November, FTX collapsed after its liquidity crisis, causing Sam Bankman-Fried’s once $26 billion net worth to go to zero. Binance CEO Zhao saw his wealth fall by about $84 billion in the same month, while anyone with bitcoin exposure felt the sting of FTX’s collapse. 

You can read Bloomberg’s full feature here

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 08:34

FTX Founder Reportedly Cashes Out $684K After Being Released On Bail

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FTX Founder Reportedly Cashes Out $684K After Being Released On Bail

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

SBF has allegedly cashed out $684,000 from a crypto exchange in Seychelles while being under house arrest, according to an on-chain investigation…

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is reportedly cashing out large amounts of cryptocurrency soon after being released on bail, on-chain data suggests.

SBF has cashed out $684,000 in crypto to an exchange in Seychelles while being under house arrest, according to the on-chain investigation by DeFi educator BowTiedIguana.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) analyst BowTiedIguana took to Twitter on Dec. 29 to report on a series of obfuscated wallet transactions allegedly linked to SBF, suggesting that the former FTX CEO could have violated release conditions to not spend more than $1,000 without permission from the court.

According to BowTiedIguana’s analysis, SBF’s public address (0xD5758) on Dec. 28 sent all remaining Ether to a newly created address (0x7386d). BowTiedIguana noted that SBF took over the address that was originally owned by Sushiswap creator from Chef Nomi in August 2020.

Within hours, 0x7386d received transfers totaling $367,000 from 32 addresses identified as Alameda Research wallets, with an additional $322,000 coming from other wallets. All funds were sent to a centralized crypto exchange in Seychelles and to the crypto bridge RenBridge, according to the DeFi analyst.

0x7386d sent a total of 519.5 Ether, or around $629,000, to 0x64e9B, which also received funds from addresses labeled as Alameda Research. BowTiedIguana also identified five separate transactions of less than 51 ETH ($61,000) that were used to move funds to newly created wallets and then “onwards to a Seychelles-based exchange.”

Additionally, the SBF-linked wallet 0x64e9B sent three tranches of 200,000 Tether (USDT) to the FixedFloat exchange.

“As the Ethereum blockchain is an immutable public ledger, this on-chain evidence is permanently available to law enforcement and the courts,” BowTiedIguana stated, calling attorneys from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to look at the issue.

Confirmed to be related to SBF or not, the transactions do not necessarily mean that FTX founder has violated bail release conditions, according to some industry enthusiasts.

“I don’t know that this necessarily qualifies as ‘spending’ money. They’re his assets already,” one industry observer suggested.

A number of online commenters also speculated that SBF himself was Chef Nomi, the anonymous co-founder of Sushiswap. Coinbase head of strategy Conor Grogan stressed that many of the recent SBF-linked transactions were heavily related to early Sushiswap activity. “These wallets — assuming they all belong to him — were heavily involved with LPing Sushi early on, well before Chef Nomi handed off the project to SBF,” Grogan stated.

SBF himself claimed in September 2020 that he didn’t have anything to do with building Sushiswap.

The alleged SBF-linked transactions occurred about a week after SBF was granted bail with a $250 million bond secured by SBF’s parents paid with the equity in their house. SBF previously claimed that he only had $100,000 in his bank account after the collapse of FTX.

The news comes soon after the government of Bahamas officially announced that local authorities seized $3.5 billion worth of crypto from FTX on Nov. 12. The authorities claimed that the action was taken in order to avoid a risk of “imminent dissipation” of funds after SBF warned about cyberattacks on FTX in mid-November.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 08:15

Futures Slide On Final Trading Day Of 2022

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Futures Slide On Final Trading Day Of 2022

US equity-index futures slumped on Friday, tracking European stocks lower, after Wall Street’s best session of the month and denting hopes that Santa Claus would make a late appearance on the last trading day of the year and ease the pain for investors as global stock markets are about to close the books on their worst annual performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Similarly to European bourses, US tech led the decline – after leading yesterday’s gain – with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 down 0.7% at 5:26 a.m. in New York. The tech-heavy index enjoyed a 2.6% jump during the previous session, thanks in large part to a sharp bounce-back in Tesla shares. The Nasdaq has lost a third of value this year as tech stocks emerged as some of the most vulnerable to rising rates. Optimism spurred by weaker than expected continuing job claims data signaling some easing in tight US labor markets faded overnight, taking contracts on the S&P 500 about 0.5% lower, and appears to be headed for that infamous JPM Collar strike of 3835.

Add bonds and you get a $36 trillion loss in market value, the largest ever.

The dollar extended declines against major peers, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index heading for its lowest level since June. Treasury yields inched higher and the yen rallied even as the Bank of Japan unveiled an unprecedented third day of unscheduled bond purchases.

In premarket trading, travel and leisure stocks are under pressure as a surge in Covid-19 cases in China has prompted authorities to consider flight and travel restrctions. Technology shares are also under the spotlight after a volatile week, notably for Apple Inc. and Tesla. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • China Securities Regulatory Commission will ask Futu Holdings and UP Fintech Holding to correct illegal acts in cross-border securities business, according to a statement from the regulator. Futu shares fall 25% in premarket trading.
  • Sesen Bio rises 27% in US premarket trading after the company said it will increase a previously announced one-time special dividend following its merger with Carisma Therapeutics, to around $0.34 per share from as much as $0.12 per share.

With low visibility on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, the surge in Covid cases in China or the war in Ukraine, strategists are being cautious in calling the direction of travel for the next few weeks.

“On equities, I expect a choppy first few weeks of the year, while central banks keep their hawkish tone, but then a more positive second quarter and onwards as inflation declines,” said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management.

The market’s uncertain direction sapped hopes for a rally to close out 2022, a year when inflation reasserted itself to wipe a fifth in value from global stocks, the worst run since the financial crisis. Bonds lost 16% of value, the biggest decline since at least 1990 for one leading measure, as central banks raced to slow rising consumer prices by hiking interest rates around the world.

European stocks dropped 0.7%, and was trading at session lows, as technology and telecommunications shares led a broad-based decline in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, which is heading for its worst year since 2018. The gauge held a decline even after data showed Spanish inflation slowed for a fifth straight month in December as energy costs continue to decline in the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed higher on their last session for 2022 as shares in China advanced on mobility figures that showed economic activity rebounded in several of the nation’s cities where infections have likely peaked. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, the most in a week, with most markets in the region gaining. US data allayed fears of a supercharged jobs market that would support a more aggressive policy path. Bourses in South Korea and the Philippines were closed Friday. Despite the gain, Asian stocks are down almost 20% this year in their worst slump since the 2008 financial crisis. Vietnam and South Korea were the region’s worst performers in 2022, with both losing at least a quarter of their value. India and Indonesia were among the world’s top gainers. The annual loss for Asia is in line with the drop in global and US equities.

While investors remain concerned about the supply-chain impact from China’s Covid infection surge ahead of its Lunar New Year holiday in January, the reopening of the nation’s economy has helped support sentiment.  Expect Asia’s “discount to intrinsic value to narrow across the region in 2023 due to an improvement in sentiment on the back of China’s reopening and US rate hike expectations plateauing,” said Sukumar Rajah, director of portfolio management at Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity.

Emerging-market stocks  were set for the first weekly advance in three as the benchmark index remained on track for a decline of more than 20% in 2022.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.3%; the pound underperformed, losing ground against the greenback which dropped to the lowest level since June. The yen rose against all G-10 currencies even after the BOJ announced unscheduled bond purchases for the third day. USD/JPY fell more than 1% to 131.55 after dropping 1.1% on Thursday. The combination of additional fixed-rate and fixed amount purchases announced Friday have boosted BOJ’s buying this month to about 17 trillion yen, a monthly record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg

“Our view is that the BOJ’s yield curve control policy is on borrowed time and the central bank will have to eventually let go of the policy — this is one key factor why we see USD/JPY heading toward 120 per dollar in 2023,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “JPY flow implications are also likely supporting the yen with Japan domestic yields starting to look more appealing for Japanese insurance companies as well as any offshore investor with FX hedged positions”

In rates, treasuries were under pressure as the last US trading session of the year gets under way, with yields higher by 2bp-3bp across the curve, inside weekly ranges. 10-year TSY yields were higher by 2.4bp at 3.84%, near the highest level since mid-November and above 50-DMA level; German 10-year is up ~7bp on the day; Bunds and most other euro-zone bond markets underperformed after bearish Spanish inflation data. Treasuries may draw support into month-end index pricing at 1pm New York time. Sifma recommended a 2pm close for cash bonds.  Global market focus remains on the impact of China’s unwind of Covid restrictions, with the nation facing as many as 25,000 deaths a day later in January, according to estimates.

In commodities, oil rose after a three-day run of declines on worries about a rise in crude stockpiles and concerns that rising Covid-19 infections in China would slow demand in one of the world’s top oil importers.

The only economic datapoint on the last trading day of the year is the Chicago PMI which is expected to bounce modestly to 40.0 from 37.2.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,853.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 428.18
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 155.91
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 506.39
  • Nikkei little changed at 26,094.50
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,891.71
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 19,781.41
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,089.26
  • Sensex down 0.6% to 60,775.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,038.69
  • Kospi down 1.9% to 2,236.40
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.52%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0660
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $83.55/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $83.55/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,816.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Bank of Japan announced an unprecedented third day of unscheduled bond purchases as it fights back against speculation it is about to end its super-accommodative monetary policy
  • European and US equity futures edged lower and Asian shares were mixed on the final trading day of a brutal year in financial markets that has dragged stocks and bonds to their worst annual run in more than a decade.
  • China will extend the trading hours for the onshore yuan as the government pushes ahead with plans to internationalize the currency
  • No novel Covid-19 variants have emerged in China, according to a global consortium that’s tracking coronavirus mutations
  • China appointed its ambassador to the US, Qin Gang, as the new foreign minister, as the Asian nation shows signs of moving back to a lower-key diplomatic strategy after a growing backlash against its confrontational style

US Event Calendar

  • 09:45: Dec. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 40.0, prior 37.2

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 08:02

Trade Union Boss Accuses UK Government Of Putting “Fingers In Their Ears” Over Pay Disputes

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Trade Union Boss Accuses UK Government Of Putting “Fingers In Their Ears” Over Pay Disputes

The new general secretary of the Trades Union Congress (TUC) has accused Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government of refusing to listen or negotiate about pay demands which have led to strikes on Britain’s railways and in the National Health Service.

Train services over Christmas were badly hit by strikes and Network Rail warned this week that “industrial action means rail travel will be significantly disrupted throughout December and January.”

The NHS has seen unprecedented strikes by nurses and ambulance workers this month and there have also been pay disputes with postal workers, civil servants, and university staff which have led to industrial action.

Ambulances parked during a strike outside Waterloo ambulance station, London, on Dec. 21, 2022. (Kirsty O’Connor/PA Media)

As Chris Summers report at The Epoch Times, Paul Nowak, who will take over as TUC general secretary next week, accused the government of refusing to negotiate over NHS pay claims.

He said in an interview with PA:

“We want to see public services where workers are properly rewarded and respected. There is overwhelming support for NHS workers, so it is not good enough for government ministers to continue to put their fingers in their ears.”

In an interview with the BBC’s Today programme, Nowak also doubted whether pay review bodies were “genuinely independent” and said they found their “hands tied” by the government.

The new General Secretary of the Trades Union Congress, Paul Nowak, pictured outside the TUC’s office in London, England, on Dec. 21, 2022. (PA)

Nowak said:

“Our unions are looking very seriously at the pay review bodies and looking particularly at the way the Government has used them effectively as a human shield in this discussion about public sector pay.”

He added:

“The pay review body process itself is in danger of being brought into disrepute because the government is hiding behind the pay review bodies, refusing to negotiate on pay and refusing to reach a reasonable settlement with our public sector unions.”

The government, which is battling inflation and trying to keep down the national deficit, has tried to restrict pay rises.

But Nowak said: “Starting off the conversation about NHS pay by saying ‘We’ve got this limited amount of money, that’s all there is, it doesn’t matter what evidence the unions bring to the table, it doesn’t matter what the pressures are on the workforce’ I don’t think is a reasonable starting point for a reasonable conversation about public sector pay.”

Nowak’s Predecessor Has Become Labour Peer

Nowak, who replaces Frances O’Grady—who was given a peerage in October and became a Labour peer, Dame O’Grady of Upper Holloway—accused the government of “sabotaging” attempts to resolve the wave of strikes which have spread across the country since the summer.

He added: “Today I am issuing a challenge to government and employers. Work with unions to end Britain’s living standards nightmare. UK workers are on course for two decades of lost pay. This is the longest squeeze on earnings in modern history. We can’t go on like this.”

Nowak said: “We can’t be a country where nurses are having to use food banks, while City bankers get unlimited bonuses. Unless we get wages rising across the economy, families will just keep lurching from crisis to crisis.”

“Unions stand ready to work with good employers to drive up growth, living standards, and productivity,” he added.

Passengers wait at the barriers at King’s Cross station following a strike by members of the Rail, Maritime, and Transport union (RMT), in a long-running dispute over jobs and pensions, in London, on Dec. 27, 2022. (James Manning/PA Media)

The TUC—an umbrella group which speaks up for the whole trade union movement in Britain—has traditionally been allied to the Labour Party and, with a general election looming in the next two years, Nowak made a party political point when he said: “For too long we have been trapped in a vicious Conservative cycle of stagnant growth, stagnant investment, and stagnant wages. It’s time for a proper long-term economic plan that rewards work not wealth.”

‘Dangerous Trap’

Earlier this month Health Secretary Steve Barclay accused the Unite, Unison, and GMB unions, which have been coordinating the ambulance strike, of refusing to work with the government at the national level to set out plans for dealing with medical emergencies during the strike.

In an article in The Telegraph on Dec. 20, Barclay said: “The British people would not forgive if politicians like me spent every single winter frozen in negotiations with trade unions, rather than getting on and solving the very real challenges we face as a country. It is a dangerous trap we have been determined to avoid.”

Barclay said the government had accepted the advice of the independent NHS pay review body and he added: “Most ambulance staff received a rise of at least four per cent this year, following the body’s recommendation. On average, ambulance staff have additional earnings worth around 37 per cent of basic pay, covering unsocial hours, geographical supplements and overtime. This takes total earnings to around £47,000 per person.”

But Nowak said workers were facing two decades of “lost pay” and he accused the government of being “blind” to the staffing crisis in the NHS, which he said was largely the fault of low pay.

A government spokeswoman told The Epoch Times, in an email: “The unions have chosen to strike over Christmas to cause maximum disruption. We are doing all we can to mitigate the impact, but the union bosses should be reasonable, stay around the negotiating table and call off these damaging strikes.”

She added: “Pay must be affordable and fair, which is why we accepted the recommendations from the independent pay review bodies to pay our valued public servants more. Inflation-matching pay increases for all public sector workers would cost everyone more long-term—worsening debt, fuelling inflation, and costing every household an extra £1,000.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 05:45

ExxonMobil Launches Legal Challenge Against EU Over Windfall Profit Tax

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ExxonMobil Launches Legal Challenge Against EU Over Windfall Profit Tax

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

ExxonMobil has filed a lawsuit against the European Union (EU) over a windfall tax on energy companies announced in September, arguing that the move is “counterproductive” and will “undermine investor confidence.”

The Texas-headquartered oil and gas company announced the legal challenge against the bloc, which will be decided on by the European General Court, in a statement to media outlets on Dec. 28.

“Our challenge is targeted only at the counter-productive windfall profits tax, and not any other elements of the package to reduce energy prices,” a company spokesperson said.

“This tax will undermine investor confidence, discourage investment, and increase reliance on imported energy and fuel products. European industries already face a very real competitiveness crisis and governments should be supporting the production of reliable and affordable energy,” the statement added.

In a separate statement to multiple media outlets, the company added that whether or not it invests in Europe will “primarily depend on how attractive and globally competitive Europe will be.”

EU Announces Windfall Tax

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen announced in September emergency measures that would charge energy companies who make record profits in 2022.

Under the new measures, a 33 percent tax on this year’s oil, gas, and coal profits will be rolled out if they are 20 percent or more above average profits between 2018 and 2021. The measure will be effective as of Dec. 31.

ExxonMobil’s lawsuit was filed on Dec. 28 by its German and Dutch subsidiaries at the European General Court in Luxembourg City, The Financial Times reports.

Specifically, it challenges whether the EU has the legal authority to impose the new tax and its use of emergency powers in getting member states to approve the measure, according to the publication.

European Commission spokesperson Arianna Podesta said in a statement to The Hill that the commission “maintains that the measures in question are fully compliant with EU law.”

Additionally, the tax measure will “ensure that the whole energy sector pays its fair share in these difficult times,” the spokesperson said.

ExxonMobil reported a quarterly profit of almost $20 billion in October.

At the time, Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer, said the results “reflect the hard work of our people to invest in and build businesses critical to meeting the demand we see today.”

“We all understand how important our role is in producing the energy and products the world needs, and third-quarter results reflect our commitment to that objective,” Woods added.

ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods speaks during a press conference in Doha, on June 21, 2022. (Karim Jaafar/AFP via Getty Images)

Tax Could Cost ExxonMobil $2 billion

Chief Financial Officer Kathryn Mikells told analysts on a call on Dec. 8. that the windfall tax profits imposed by the EU could cost the company at least $2 billion through the end of 2023. The company said it had invested $3 billion in the past decade in refinery projects in Europe, helping the country to get more energy while reducing its reliance on imports from Russia.

The EU previously had a long-running relationship with Russia when it came to natural gas imports, but that relationship turned sour this year following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, with Europe vowing to end dependence on Russian gas by 2030. This has left the 27-member bloc scrambling to find alternative sources.

EU ministers estimate that they can raise €140bn ($148 billion) by imposing the windfall tax on emergency companies raking in larger-than-usual profits.

Biden Threatens Similar Tax

In the U.S., President Joe Biden also threatened a similar tax on oil company profits if they don’t boost production.

In November, Biden accused oil companies of profiting from the war in Ukraine, saying that the profits are “not because they’re doing something new or innovative” but instead are “a windfall of war—the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe.”

“Any company receiving historic windfall profits like this has a responsibility to act beyond their narrow self-interest of its executives and shareholders,” he said.

Biden has repeatedly blamed increased oil prices on Russian President Vladimir Putin, or what he calls “Putin’s price hike.” Some Republican lawmakers have taken aim at the President and a number of his energy policies, including his decision to suspend construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have brought oil from Canada to the United States.

The Epoch Times has contacted ExxonMobil for comment.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 05:00

Ukraine Lashes Out At Orbán’s Pro-Peace Stance On Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

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Ukraine Lashes Out At Orbán’s Pro-Peace Stance On Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been harshly criticized by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, according to remarks published on the ministry’s website on Tuesday, Dec. 27, German news agency dpa reports.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba talks during an interview with The Associated Press in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Dec. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Orbán’s statements “demonstrate a pathological disregard for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people who are fighting against Russian aggression,” the Ukrainian ministry said, accusing the Hungarian leader of “political short-sightedness.”

As Denis Albert reports at Remix News, the comments came in response to a statement by Orbán that the war could end if the United States stopped supplying arms to Ukraine. Orbán was working in this way towards Ukraine’s defeat, even if it would increase the danger of Russian aggression directed at Hungary, the Ukrainian ministry said.

“The Hungarian leader should ask himself if he wants peace,” the ministry said in a statement.

In an earlier interview Orbán said, “Ukraine can continue fighting only as long as the United States supports them with money and weapons. If the Americans want peace, then there will be peace.”

As Remix News reported, in a recent interview Orbán said that while it is important for his government that Russia poses no security threat, continued economic relations is essential for not only Hungary, but also for the entire European economy.

The answer to the question of whether we are on the right or wrong side of history is that we are on the Hungarian side of history. We support and help Ukraine, it is in our interest to preserve a sovereign Ukraine, and it is in our interest that Russia does not pose a security threat to Europe, but it is not in our interest to give up all economic relations with Russia. We are looking at these issues through Hungarian glasses, not through anyone else’s,” Orbán said.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 04:15

Turkey Bets On Black Sea Gas To Slash Import Dependence

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Turkey Bets On Black Sea Gas To Slash Import Dependence

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Turkey announced on Monday a new natural gas discovery in the Black Sea.

  • Erdogan: Turkey’s natural gas reserves in the Black Sea have now increased to 710 billion cubic meters.

  • Earlier this year, Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin agreed to set up a natural gas hub in Turkey.

Turkey announced on Monday a new natural gas discovery in the Black Sea and upgraded estimates for an already discovered field in the basin, in what could be a major step for the country in slashing gas imports and diversifying its energy sources.   Turkey’s natural gas reserves in the Black Sea have now increased to 710 billion cubic meters (bcm), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday.

The country upgraded the resource estimate of a previously discovered gas field and announced a new discovery in its Black Sea waters.  

The already discovered Sakarya field saw its reserves upgraded, while a new discovery at Caycuma-1 further boosts Turkey’s estimates of gas in place that could replace much of its imports, on which the country is heavily dependent. 

“As a result of the analysis of the data, we have revised the previously declared 540 billion cubic-metre reserve to 652 billion cubic metres,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by Reuters

“With our new discovery at Caycuma-1, our gas reserve in the Black Sea has risen by 170 billion cubic metres to 710 billion cubic metres,” said Erdogan. 

“This new discovery will open the door for new ones. We’ll start drilling new wells as soon as possible,” Bloomberg quoted Erdogan as saying at a press conference after a cabinet meeting.

The Sakarya gas field is on track to produce first gas as early as next year, Turkey’s Erdogan said in November. 

“Hopefully we’ll start using this gas next year,” the Turkish president was quoted as saying last month. 

This week, Erdogan said Turkey had already drilled 13 wells in the Sakarya field.   

The new discovery, at Caycuma-1, could be connected to the larger Sakarya gas field and from there to the country’s national grid, the president said on Monday.   

The newly developed gas fields are set to go a long way toward Turkey’s energy diversification. So far, the country has mostly relied on imports to procure energy supply. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has hit Turkey’s economy and energy prices hard and has made energy imports much more expensive for Ankara. 

Before this week’s reserves update, Turkish officials had expected that the Black Sea gas resources could meet around one-third of the country’s gas demand, Bloomberg notes. 

Turkey is also preparing to potentially host a gas hub for Russian and other gas, which, however, may not be politically palatable to the EU. 

Earlier this year, Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin agreed to set up a natural gas hub in Turkey, the Turkish president said.

“And in his own words, Putin announced to the world that ‘Europe can get its natural gas from Türkiye’,” Erdogan was quoted as saying.

A week earlier, Putin first suggested that Russia redirect natural gas supplies intended for the damaged Nord Stream pipelines to the Black Sea and the creation of a European gas hub in Turkey

Since Putin first suggested the creation of the gas hub in Turkey, the two countries have not wasted time and instructed in October their respective energy regulators to immediately begin technical work to make the Russian proposal a reality.  

“There will be no waiting” on this issue, Erdogan has said, as carried by AP.  

Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that any decisions on the potential gas hub in Turkey would be taken in 2023. 

“Currently Gazprom is actively working with Turkish colleagues, with other potential participants of this project from other countries,” Novak was quoted as saying in an interview with the Rossiya-24 TV news channel on Friday.

“As supplies to Europe in the southern direction are underway from both Algeria, and Qatar, and Azerbaijan as of today, fundamentally, the issue about the creation of a certain hub with not only Russian suppliers, but other exporters participating as well,” TASS quoted Novak as saying.  

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 03:30

Finland Proposes 30% Windfall Tax On Power Companies

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Finland Proposes 30% Windfall Tax On Power Companies

By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

The Finnish government has announced on Thursday that it has proposed a temporary windfall tax on profits from the country’s electricity companies as part of a European Union response to soaring power costs. The proposed 30% tax would apply to any profits exceeding a 10% return on capital in 2023, with the government estimating it could bring in between 500 million and 1.3 billion euros ($533 million-$1.9 billion).

If the Finnish government goes ahead with its plans, it will join Germany and the UK as the other EU members that have introduced a windfall tax to energy and power companies. Starting December 1, Germany introduced a special levy that will see the country’s oil, gas and coal firms pay 33% of windfall profits, potentially generating a revenue of between one and three billion euros, Reuters reports.

Dubbed the “EU energy crisis contribution”, the tax is likely to affect dozens of energy companies and will target their 2022 and 2023 profits.

The tax would be implemented by the end of 2022. 

The new levy will affect oil, gas and coal companies whose profits for the current year and the coming one exceed by 20% or more than their 2018-2021 average. However, the tax has a major drawback: according to Katharina Beck, spokeswoman on financial matters for the Greens, the planned levy can be circumvented on a large scale by companies moving profits abroad.

The draft of the finance ministry for windfall profit levy for oil and gas companies falls well short of what is necessary,” Beck said in a statement carried by Reuters. 

The fat profits being earned by energy companies in many oil-producing countries courtesy of high commodity prices has attracted the attention, and sometimes ire, of governments with some imposing windfall taxes. 

Back in May, former UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak imposed a windfall tax on oil and gas majors as the government tries to alleviate the country’s worsening cost-of-living crisis. Chancellor Sunak said that the levy would be taxed on energy companies that were making “extraordinary profits” due to the spike in commodity prices.

The British government imposed what it calls a “temporary targeted energy profits levy” with a so-called “investment allowance” levied at 25% to incentivize oil and gas firms to reinvest their profits.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden has threatened to introduce a windfall tax for oil and gas companies as they continue to post record profits.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/30/2022 – 02:45