In the final days of 2022, Goldman’s economists predicted that “the biggest political risk” of 2023 will be the Congressional showdown over America’s favorite periodic drama: the debt limit.

This is what the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said then: “The debt limit likely poses the greatest political risk next year, and we expect it to rival the 2011 episode in its disruption to financial markets and the economy. That said, we do not expect Congress to enact major fiscal changes. Republicans might press for spending cuts in a debt limit deal, but we do not expect substantial cuts next year. The White House might press for increased fiscal support, but this also looks unlikely as we believe a soft landing is more likely and a divided Congress would have difficulty responding to a recession even if one occurs.”

And while the US has about 9 months to go until the mid-September D-Day, or the moment when various emergency measures meant to provide breathing room under the debt ceiling, the existing US cash balance and new tax payments are all exhausted, a new analysis by Wrightson ICAP has calculated that the recent surge in Treasury bill supplies will likely push the outstanding amount of public debt about $10 billion above the debt ceiling after the close of business on Jan. 19, absent the implementation of measures to extend the government’s borrowing authority. Currently, the government is roughly $64 billion away from reaching its $31.4 trillion statutory borrowing limit, a level it will breach in about a week.

More than half of that $64 billion buffer will be chewed up by a swath of benchmark bill, note and bond auctions taking place this week. The net increase to the debt pile from those, after the last of them is settled next Tuesday, will be around $36.6 billion, leaving a little under $27.7 billion of clearance, according to ICAP and Bloomberg.

And that doesn’t even account for the new cash-management bill which settles two days later on Jan. 19. To accommodate that $60 billion security, it’s likely the Treasury will need to implement its extraordinary measures before then. The Treasury plans to sell $36 billion of four-month bills Wednesday, which is $3 billion larger than the previous week’s auction.

Of course, all that hitting the debt threshold level – which is always just a formality for a country that is debt-funded like the US means, is that the Treasury will notify Congress it’s invoking extraordinary accounting measures in the next few days.

“Even if our projections of nonmarketable debt are too high, the Treasury would probably be too close to the ceiling for day- to-day operational comfort,” Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall writes in a note.

Once the Treasury invokes its extraordinary measures, that will give it “ample borrowing capacity” for at least the next few weeks so it could continue increasing the size of the three- and six-month bill sales for the next couple of weeks. Still, Wrightson expects Treasury to keep the sizes steady when it announces the next round Thursday.

Also, the fact that Treasury’s cash management bill offering is only 35 days suggests the department wants to “retain some flexibility” under the debt cap, which argues for relying on boosts to shorter maturities.

And while the debt ceiling will likely be breached in about a week, as the Goldman chart below shows, analysts doubt the government is actually at risk of defaulting until the second half of 2023 because of the extraordinary measures the Treasury usually uses to avoid exceeding the cap, including using up the existing Treasury cash balance and funding from tax payments.

And so, the question is not if and when the US will breach the debt ceiling and cross the infamous D-Day, but how will broken Congress reach a solution. As we explained one week ago in “Investors Are Already Dreading The Debt Ceiling Chaos In 2023”, not even the always cheerful Wall Street expects a smooth and drama-free resolution to a process that will be nothing short of absolutely chaotic and expose the full Congressional dysfunction for the entire world to see.

For those who missed it, here are our thoughts from last week:

With the House paralyzed indefinitely after Kevin McCarthy just lost his 10th House Speaker vote (the longest such stretch since before the civil war) as a group of Republican holdouts refuses to side the GOP establishment, Bloomberg rates strategist Alexandra Harris writes that the debt ceiling is already top of mind for investors even though the US isn’t likely to face the threat of a technical default until the second half of 2023 and Treasury bills aren’t yet pricing such concerns. That’s because the Republican standstill surrounding the House speak vote foreshadows the chaos that could unfold when must-pass bills, like government funding legislation and an increase or suspension of the debt ceiling, have to be addressed.

clip and save for fights over government funding and the debt ceiling https://t.co/HQaF98JcRs

— Grace Segers (@Grace_Segers) January 5, 2023

“Although the markets did not react on Tuesday to the political chaos in the House, the dysfunction is a clear signal that House Republicans will struggle to raise the debt ceiling when the time comes in 3Q23,” Stifel Financial’s chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner says in a note.

“Investors should be on guard as the summer approaches as to the possibility that the brinksmanship over the debt ceiling could lead to market volatility and a risk-off trade.” Well at least the Fed will be happy.

The good news is that the debt ceiling crisis isn’t due for a while: the government is roughly $102 billion away from reaching the $31.4 trillion statutory limit, although analysts doubt the government is actually at risk of defaulting until the second half of 2023 because of the extraordinary measures it usually uses to avoid exceeding the cap.

Treasury has been reducing its cache of bills in order to give itself more breathing room under the cap before invoking their accounting tricks. And speaking of tricks, California Democrat Brad Sherman floated a potential deal that would trade Democratic votes to make McCarthy the speaker of the House in return for rules aimed at preventing a US government shutdown or a debt limit crisis.

According to Harris, from a money-market standpoint, a dragged-out fight over the debt ceiling will likely result in less T-bill supply at a time when there’s still a glut of cash in the overnight funding, pushing rates even lower and motivating eligible counterparties to keep parking cash at the Fed. Yes: that means the Overnight Reverse Repo balance will balloon even more.

This comes at a time when Federal Reserve policy makers are expecting balances at the overnight reverse repo facility to drop from its current levels above $2 trillion. It rose by another $41 billion on Wednesday to $2.23 trillion. In the minutes of the December gathering, Patricia Zobel, manager pro tem of the New York Fed’s system open market account, noted that greater competition among banks for funding could contribute to drawdowns in the RRP, but clearly that has not been the case since most banks still refuse to raise rates on their deposits.

All of which brings us to what Goldman predicted in its “10 questions for 2023“, would be the biggest political risk of this year. Not surprisingly, it was another debt ceiling crisis. For those who missed it, here is what Goldman said:

Will the debt limit have as negative an impact on financial markets in 2023 as it in 2011?

Yes. The political and fiscal conditions next year will be similar to the last two extremely disruptive debt limit increases, in 1995 and 2011. Like next year, in those periods a Democratic President in his third year faced a Republican House after losing the majority in the midterm election. Those episodes also followed a run-up in public debt as a share of GDP and/or a rise in federal interest expense, similar to the experience over the last few years. However, midterm gains of 54 seats in 1994 and 63 in 2010 gave Republicans a clearer political mandate and the votes to carry it out, at least in the House. By contrast, Republicans netted only 9 seats in the 2022 midterms and enter 2023 with a very thin House majority. Public focus on the public debt is also much lower compared to those prior periods, and Republicans have not emphasized fiscal restraint nearly as much recently as they had in the mid-1990s or early part of the Obama Administration.

Prior disruptive debt limit standoffs led to increased market volatility and a sell-off in Treasury securities maturing around the debt limit deadline, and we would expect this to occur next year. In 2023, we would expect yields on bills maturing around the deadline to rise by at least as much as they did in 2011 and 2013, and for volatility in financial markets to rise similar to those periods (Exhibit 14).

There is also a real chance that Congress fails to raise the debt limit in time next year, forcing Treasury to reduce daily payments to the level of receipts (i.e., immediately eliminating the budget deficit), resulting in a spending cut of around 10% of GDP at an annualized rate. While we think it is more likely that Congress manages to avoid this and raise the debt limit before it constrains Treasury’s ability to pay its obligations, the risk appears higher than at any point since 2011.

The deadline for Congress to raise the debt limit before Treasury must cut back net borrowing will likely be sometime in August but could be as late as October depending on Treasury cash flows. An early signal of the risk the debt limit poses will come at the start of 2023, when the new House of Representatives is seated. If Republicans reinstate the “motion to vacate” that allows any member of the House to call for a vote for a new speaker of the House—several Republican House members have recently called for this in return for their vote for speaker—it could be difficult for the next speaker to put a clean debt limit increase to a vote until forced by financial markets.

For more detailed on these, and other questions and predictions, read the full note available to pro subs.

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute, 

A Ukrainian official said it was logical for Kiev to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. The country’s Ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, claimed it was “silly” to exclude Kiev from the Brussels-based alliance because Ukraine will be “full” of weapons manufactured in NATO member states. 

In an interview with Newsweek, Prystaiko called for Kiev to gain immediate ascension into the North Atlantic alliance. The Ambassador said, “NATO is just logical. Ukraine will be full of NATO weaponry, and the people will be prepared. So what is the difference? Just place a seat at the table.” He continued, “So we’re becoming interoperable because we’re doing it on the ground. And that’s why I’m sure that whether the political decision is here or not now, we will be a part of NATO.”

Ukraine was put on the path to NATO membership, along with Georgia, in 2008. Giving Ukraine the status as a potential member crossed key redlines set out by the Kremlin.

While Ukraine has been on the path to membership in the North Atlantic alliance for nearly 15 years, Kiev falls short of meeting several requirements to formally join the defense pact. 

During that period, Washington has repeatedly told Kiev it does not qualify to join the alliance. At the same time, it refused to take membership off the table, violating a core Russian security concern. 

Under President Joe Biden, Washington took several steps to make Kiev a member of the alliance, including; signing agreements, providing billions in military aid, and conducting NATO war games in Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine’s growing military ties with NATO was a key factor in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade his neighbor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed his country was already a “de facto” member of the alliance. 

Prystaiko claimed that eventual membership in NATO and the EU was a guarantee for Kiev, and it was “silly” to pretend otherwise. “Our conversation with the rest of the world—at least the Western world—should be very easy. Ukraine wins, becomes a member of the European Union and NATO. And that’s it,” he said.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The Fed continues to maintain its hawkish stance and a desire to keep rates higher for longer. However, the weight of history lies with the market which, through the medium of the yield curve, is sending the message that a potentially deep recession – requiring steep rate cuts – is on the way.

The mantra from many at the Fed continues to be to keep rates high, perhaps above 5%, and keep them there for an extended period. But the market is not really listening. The peak expected fed funds rate was 5.14% on November 3rd last year and has not been higher since.

Longer-term yields have been falling too, leading to the most inverted yield curve since the 1980s.

Much discussed is the yield-curve’s ability to predict recessions, but it also leads the ups as well as the downs in growth, by around one year. As the chart below shows, the yield curve is pointing to a potentially quite steep fall in growth.

There is overall a modestly positive relationship between the maximum yield-curve inversion before a recession and the subsequent peak fall in real GDP growth. The usual caveat applies with recession analysis in that the sample size is necessarily small, but nonetheless we can see that in general, steeper yield-curve inversions tend to precede deeper recessions.

Excluding the 2000 and 2007 recessions increases the correlation between the peak GDP trough and maximum curve inversion, leaving the 1970s and 1980s inflationary recessions that are more relevant to today’s backdrop.

There is an even stronger relationship between the depth of the curve inversion before a recession and the total size of the subsequent Fed cutting cycle. This suggests that it is how much “room” the Fed has to cut – gauged by how inverted the yield curve is – rather than how deep the recession proves to be, that is the ultimate arbiter of the size of the cutting cycle.

The current curve inversion is consistent with almost 500 bps of Fed cuts.

That’s not to say history will repeat itself exactly, but it gives a strong indication of the direction of travel.

The Fed currently foresees just over 100 bps of rate cuts from their expected peak by the end of 2024, according to the dot plot.

The market is increasingly at odds with this, with over 185 bps cuts priced in over the same period. 

Given the historical record, put your money with the market in who’ll be proven more right.

Update (1426ET):

Nav Canada, the not-for-profit corporation that operates Canada’s civil air navigation system, reports the Candian real-time safety alerts system for pilots, otherwise known as NOTAM — short for Notice to Air Mission — has been hit with an outage. 

So far, no delays have been attributed to the outage. 

“We are assessing impacts to our operations and will provide updates as soon as they are available,” Nav Canada said. 

pic.twitter.com/xLCZ0CVwvz

— NAV CANADA (@navcanada) January 11, 2023

This is the second NOTAM system in North America over the last 12 hours that has been hit with outages. As we explained below, the US grounded all planes earlier this morning due to NOTAM outages but restored departures around 0900 ET. 

The disruption was enough to spark a travel nightmare for US travelers today and is worsening by the hour. The latest figures from flight tracking website FlightAware show 8,000 flights have been delayed and another 1,200 canceled. 

So how do authorities explain the US and Canada’s NOTAM systems experiencing outages on the same day?

​*   *   * 

Update (1210ET):

This is one travel mess the airlines can deflect and blame the federal government. 

Three hours after the FAA reopened the skies after a nationwide grounding of all commercial jets following a computer outage, there are 7,000 flights delayed and another 1,000 canceled, according to flight tracking website FlightAware. 

People are not happy with Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg:

MAYOR Pete an expert? Where in the hell was the backup system dude? When system updates occur usually a backup or parallel system is running to make sure the update installed correctly.Delayed flights will happen and backup airports.

— Susan Kienle (@profskienle) January 11, 2023

Remember FAA is too busy going ‘woke’ to care about other important things. 

If you’re surprised that the FAA’s systems went down this morning grounding all domestic flights, you shouldn’t be.

Below are DOT and FAA’s approps focus in the 2023 budget:

“Racial equity,” “inclusion,” “income inequality,” “environmental justice, and “climate change.” pic.twitter.com/83N70Qs0aj

— John Cardillo (@johncardillo) January 11, 2023

Look what’s trending on Twitter. 

People aren’t happy with Buttigieg. 

Pete Buttigieg couldn’t organize a one-car funeral.

He was never remotely qualified for this role.

— Tom Cotton (@TomCottonAR) January 11, 2023

How many more transportation screwups are we going to tolerate from @PeteButtigieg. pic.twitter.com/u34XbsKGYl

— Stealthwave (she/it) 🔴 (@Stealth1014) January 11, 2023

.@PeteButtigieg is running a master class on how to f-up a political career. Somehow he was in better shape when he was just a former Mayor of a small town in Indiana.

— Michael Biundo (@MichaelBiundo) January 11, 2023

@PeteButtigieg you suck ass at your job. No pun intended

— ZMT (@RDZT44) January 11, 2023

Pete Buttigieg must have been busy “chest” feeding and dropped the ball.

— Intellectual Self Defense (@BenoJosi) January 11, 2023

*   *   * 

Update (0900ET):

“Normal air traffic operations are resuming gradually across the US following an overnight outage to the Notice to Air Missions system that provides safety info to flight crews. The ground stop has been lifted,” FAA tweeted. 

But, grounding all domestic flights for hours has sparked travel chaos this morning. There are currently 4,000 delays within, into, or out of the US, flight tracking website FlightAware showed. Another 700 were canceled.

​

And then there’s this…

If you’re surprised that the FAA’s systems went down this morning grounding all domestic flights, you shouldn’t be.

Below are DOT and FAA’s approps focus in the 2023 budget:

“Racial equity,” “inclusion,” “income inequality,” “environmental justice, and “climate change.” pic.twitter.com/83N70Qs0aj

— John Cardillo (@johncardillo) January 11, 2023

​​​What a mess. At least airlines, this time around, can blame the government for flight disruptions. 

*   *   * 

Update (0742ET):

President Biden has been briefed about the FAA’s system failure. 

*PRESIDENT HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON FAA SYSTEM OUTAGE, PRESS SEC SAYS

*JEAN-PIERRE: NO EVIDENCE OF CYBERATTACK AT THIS POINT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 11, 2023

And now domestic departures halts will extend 30 minutes until 0930 ET.

*US FAA DOMESTIC DEPARTURES PAUSE EXTENDED TO 9:30 AM ET: CBS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 11, 2023

Hmmm. 

*BIDEN: FAA EXPECTS IN A FEW HOURS TO HAVE A SENSE OF CAUSE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 11, 2023

*   *   * 

Update (0730ET):

FAA ordered all airlines to halt domestic departures until 0900 ET. 

Update 3: The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage.⁰⁰The FAA has ordered airlines to pause all domestic departures until 9 a.m. Eastern Time to allow the agency to validate the integrity of flight and safety information.

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) January 11, 2023

So far, 1,366 flights have been delayed within, into, or out of the US, flight tracking website FlightAware showed. Another 108 were canceled. 

*   *   * 

Update (0719ET): 

“The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage … some functions are beginning to come back online, National Airspace System operations remain limited,” FAA tweeted.

Cleared Update No. 2 for all stakeholders: ⁰⁰The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage. ⁰⁰While some functions are beginning to come back on line, National Airspace System operations remain limited.

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) January 11, 2023

*   *   * 

Early Wednesday morning, the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) system that notifies pilots about hazards or any changes to airport facility services suffered an outage that might result in a nationwide grounding. 

The FAA wrote in an advisory update that its NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) system had “failed.” The aviation agency provided no immediate estimate for when it would return online. 

“THE FAA is experiencing an outage that is impacting the update of NOTAMS. All flights are unable to be released at this time,” the FAA said in a statement.

In a statement to NBC News, the FAA said, “Operations across the National Airspace System are affected.” 

So far, 1,162 flights have been delayed within, into, or out of the US, flight tracking website FlightAware showed. Another 94 were canceled. 

Flights are being grounded nationwide. 

Just an FYI if you are planning to fly today (as I sit on a plane I boarded at 5am), FAA’s NOTAM system is down and basically all planes within and coming in and out of the U.S. are grounded. Our pilot says they have no idea when it will be functioning again. So. pic.twitter.com/4iW11Ns2vr

— Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) January 11, 2023

BREAKING NEWS: 🚨🚨
Dozens of flights have been delayed at Charleston International airport due to a FAA computer malfunction.
We haven’t seen any flights leave Charleston in the past 40-45 minutes.
Tune into @ABCNews4 for the latest updates #Working4You pic.twitter.com/kcZugsJaqo

— Sean Mahoney (@SeanMahoneyTV) January 11, 2023

It’s probably not a good time to fly this morning. 

BREAKING: Widespread U.S. flight delays expected after critical FAA system goes down; agency currently working on getting it back online pic.twitter.com/DVQAw4nsTE

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 11, 2023

Passengers are beginning to complain on social media about delayed flights. 

FAA computer outage has grounded flights nationwide this morning. Boarded at 5:30AM as the first flight of the day. Currently delayed indefinitely. Idk if I’ll be making this cruise out of Florida… 😢🌴🚢 pic.twitter.com/SBy8q2sD2N

— Stephanie Grindley (@StephanieGTV) January 11, 2023

FAA outage also affecting flights abroad. Our flight from FCO – PHL is halted on the runway.

— Allie Evans (@whattheklutz) January 11, 2023

The FAA has grounded all flights due to a computer outage. Sitting on a plane @EWRairport on @UnitedAirlines pic.twitter.com/Rlq5OBmiJd

— Alan Smith (@alan_f_smith) January 11, 2023

Currently sitting on the runway and am seeing that the FAA is grounding all flights in the US for a system outage…

if yal gone cancel, do it now so I can go get back in my bed 😩🙏🏽

— Jay Dub (@TheSweetest_Jay) January 11, 2023

Sitting in DCA, they just told us there is a nation-wide FAA outage. No flights are moving anywhere. Anyone have any clue what’s going on?

— GChris (@GChris65) January 11, 2023

@AmericanAir I’ve been sitting on a full plane at the gate at LAX for 2+ hours for a system issue with the FAA. When will this be resolved? #flightdelay

— Lynn (@birdsonglynn1) January 11, 2023

The Illinois State Senate has just approved legislation for a sweeping “assault weapons” ban that is expected to pass the House and be signed by Governor J.B. Pritzker.  The bill is an adapted version of the “Protect Illinois Communities Act,” which would ban at least 100 different semi-automatic weapons and high-capacity magazines from being manufactured or sold. The bill also makes devices intended to increase the rate-of-fire of semiautomatic weapons illegal, and increases the duration of a firearm restraining order from six months up to one year under the state’s red flag law. 

Those who currently own such guns would not be required to surrender them but would have to register them with the Illinois State Police — including serial numbers.  Universal firearms registration is, historically speaking, the first step towards total confiscation.  Gun rights advocates in the state say they are ready to enter into civil litigation over the new law, arguing it is a direct attack on their constitutionally protected rights. 

The action by Illinois comes not long after the Democrat controlled state of Oregon tried to implement a bill, known as the Reduction of Gun Violence Act, which would create a permit system for firearms ownership along with a list of requirements for approval by state officials.  Broad permit laws for firearms have traditionally been rejected by courts because they transform gun rights into gun privileges; a direct violation of the 2nd Amendment.

Multiple Sheriffs in Oregon have stated they will refuse to enforce the law if it passes, and the bill has been frozen by the Oregon Supreme Court awaiting decision.  

Gun control proponents often use imagery of high capacity semi-automatic rifles like the AR-15 or the AK-47 in their campaigns because they present a more imposing psychological reaction in the public.  However, the vast majority of gun related crimes involve handguns, not semi-automatic rifles.  Around 60% of all gun crimes are committed using pistols – Only 3% of gun crimes involve weapons commonly referred to as “assault rifles.”

It should also be noted that Democrat run cities across the country top the statistical lists for violent criminal activity including gun violence despite the fact that they tend to have strict gun control laws already in place.  The rationale for firearms bans is generally in response to a set of high profile crimes rather than an actual increase in overall violence, and such laws represent mass punishment of millions of law abiding citizens for the actions of a handful of people.    

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) has signed an agreement with the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, to set up a joint company that will invest in mining assets abroad to secure strategic minerals.  

Under the joint venture agreement, Ma’aden will own 51% of the new company, while the Public Investment Fund (PIF) will own the remaining 49%, Ma’aden said in a statement on Wednesday.

The joint company plans to initially invest in the iron ore, copper, nickel, and lithium sectors as a non-operating partner taking minority equity positions, Ma’aden said.

“This will provide physical offtake of critical minerals to ensure supply security for domestic minerals downstream sectors and positioning Saudi Arabia as a key partner in global supply-chain resilience,” the company noted.

Separately, Ma’aden announced an agreement to buy 9.9% in U.S.-based technology firm Ivanhoe Electric Inc for $126.4 million and form with Ivanhoe Electric, a Saudi-based joint venture company, to explore and develop mining projects in Saudi Arabia.

According to Ma’aden’s statement, Ivanhoe Electric “applies a suite of technological solutions to dramatically increase the quality and efficiency of metals-focused exploration campaigns, which aligns with Ma’aden’s strategy to gain leverage of commodities with long-term growth potential.” 

In October 2021, the top executive of the state miner of the world’s top oil exporter said that the company plans “huge” investments in exploring for lithium and nickel in Saudi Arabia over the next two decades.

“In the next 10 to 20 years we are going to spend huge amount of money looking for those metals in Saudi Arabia,” Maaden’s chief executive officer Abdulaziz Al Harbi told Bloomberg at the time, asked about the key battery metals lithium and nickel.

The world’s largest oil exporter is thus betting on critical battery metals, whose demand is set to grow exponentially in the energy transition. 

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

I have adopted the position that when a central bank allows its government to overspend and abuse its currency, something has to give. You could say this is one of the unwritten laws of fiat currencies. Time and time again history has proven this to be true and it is the reason many people claim gold is the only true form of money that cannot be corrupted. In a world where everything seems subject to manipulation, this claim about gold is still up for debate. 

The overspending by governments coupled with inflation has really started to affect the perceived value of currencies in relation to other currencies. As these relationships break the losers are the people holding the de-valuated currency. Of course, many factors feed into how we value a currency but the crux of this article is not about whether a currency is over or undervalued but rather what a country must do to defend its value if it comes under attack.

Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital is credited with coining the term the “Dollar Milkshake Theory.” It explains how our debt-based monetary system can cause the US Dollar to rise despite the increasing liquidity injections around the world. Whether this was a “grand master plan” or a situation that just developed over time, it is something that may bode well for the dollar. Johnson recently took part in a discussion that included subjects such as the future price of oil, housing, and the probability of a huge global huge recession. 

About 28 minutes into the discussion which came out in both video and transcript form here:

Johnson conveys what many of us see as a truth that haunts fiat currencies. This is rooted in the fact that when the value of a currency falls, a country and its central bank cannot save both its currency and its bonds. In his “slightly edited” words;

“The problem is you cannot, and this is for every country, the US included, again, there’s a progression in how it’ll go, but you cannot save both the bond market and the currency market because they work at cross purposes. Whatever you do to save the bond market hurts the currency. Whatever you do to save the currency hurts the bond market. And every central bank in history has promised they won’t sacrifice the currency, and every central bank in history has ultimately sacrificed the currency.

And the reason they always choose the currency over the bond or the reason they always choose to sacrifice the currency over the bond market is for two reasons. One, the currency affects the citizens more than the government, and the bond market affects the government more than citizens. So they’re going to bail themselves out before they bail the citizens out. And the second thing is if the bond market blows up and the banking system blows up, there is no longer a distribution system for the government to raise money.

So they can’t let the bond market blow up because then they can’t get money anymore. And then if they can’t get money, they can’t operate. So this is a very long way of saying that I understand why the market moved the way it did. I think maybe in the short term it makes sense, but in the medium to long term, it doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Again, kind of watch what they do, not what they say.”

He later added “The problem, as we’ve kind of figured out and found out that it’s very hard to just get four for four or 5% inflation. It goes from 2% to 12% pretty quickly. They don’t have as much control as they think they do, right? And the problem with four or 5% inflation, you can kind of get away with it because it’s annoying and it is frustrating, but it’s not totally ruining your life. But with 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 80% inflation, that starts to ruin the pledge life, as you mentioned. And that’s when they start to push back from a political perspective. And that’s what central banks and governments don’t want. They don’t want the populace revolting” 

When you think about the true motivators driving this “system,” it is logical the government and central banks would throw the populace under the bus. This is about their survival. As to the question of equal pain, those in power justify taking raises to offset the impact of inflation under the idea we “need them” to steer things forward for the “greater good.” 

While Johnson’s remarks were aimed at what is most apparent in the actions of Japan, this truth is problematic to all fiat currencies. For more on the Dollar Milkshake Theory see; 

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

The new Republican-majority House voted Tuesday afternoon to create a select subcommittee to investigate the “weaponization of the government” by federal law enforcement agencies under Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration.

The special panel would have various functions, including the authority to have subpoena power to receive information on intelligence-related activity that’s typically only shared with the House Intelligence Committee.

It would also have the authority to probe the federal government’s expansive role in investigations on U.S. citizens, including in ongoing criminal investigations. The panel would also have the power to probe how federal agencies communicate with private companies to collect information on Americans, according to the text of the resolution.

The resolution to create the “Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government” passed on a straight party-line vote of 221-211.

The panel is part of the House Judiciary Committee. Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is also expected to chair it. It would comprise 15 members—nine Republicans and six Democrats—to be appointed by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who chairs the House Rules Committee, said the new panel is modeled on the Church Committee, a U.S. Senate select committee in 1975 that investigated U.S. intelligence agencies. That committee “uncovered and exposed a wide variety of abuses, including many [abuses] directed against American citizens,” Cole told fellow lawmakers on the House floor on Tuesday.

“Similar to the situation that confronted America in the 1970s, in recent years we have witnessed abuses of the civil liberties of American citizens committed by the executive branch,” Cole said, adding that such violations are “often for political purposes.”

He said the newly-created panel “will be tasked with studying and reporting on the executive branch’s authority to collect information on or otherwise investigate citizens of the United States.”

“The American people deserve to have confidence in their government,” Cole said. “They deserve to know that the broad powers granted to the federal government through the FBI, to the Department of Homeland Security, and to the intelligence agencies, are not being abused.”

“They deserve to know that the executive branch is not positioning itself as the final arbiter of what constitutes truth,” he continued. “And they deserve to know that they will not be labeled a domestic terrorist for advocating for their children in front of a school board.”

Rep. Jim Jordan (D-Ohio) nominates House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for Speaker of the House of the 118th Congress during a speech in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol Building on Jan. 3, 2023 in Washington. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

‘This is About the First Amendment’

Democrats have raised concerns about a provision that authorizes the committee to probe “ongoing criminal investigations,” which are generally outside the purview of congressional oversight.

“This is a violation of separation of powers, and it’s also very dangerous,” said Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee.

They have also claimed that Republicans could use its broad new authority to disrupt ongoing investigations into the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as well as former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents, for which the FBI conducted a raid on his Florida property in August 2022.

Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) derided the panel on the House floor late Tuesday, calling it “nothing more than a deranged ploy by the MAGA extremists who have hijacked the party and want to use taxpayer money to push their far-right conspiracy nonsense.”

Jordan argued against that assertion on the House floor.

“A ploy? It’s not a ploy when the Department of Justice treats parents as terrorists—moms and dads simply showing up at a school board meeting to advocate for their son or daughter,” Jordan said. “It’s not a ploy when the FBI pays Twitter $3 million to censor American citizens.”

“It’s not a ploy when the Department of Homeland Security tries to set up a ‘disinformation governance board’ because we all know that the department of homeland security can tell what’s good speech and what is bad speech,” he continued. “You got to be kidding me. I’ll tell you what—dozens of whistleblowers have come talked to Republican staff on the Judiciary Committee doesn’t think this is a ploy. That’s why they talked to us. They know how serious this is.”

Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee in November 2022 released a 1,000-page report (pdf) titled “FBI Whistleblowers: What Their Disclosures Indicate About the Politicization of the FBI and Justice Department.” Citing multiple examples and whistleblower disclosures, the report outlined how the Justice Department and the FBI abused their authorities to target conservatives for political purposes.

Jordan continued: “This [committee] is about the First amendment. Something you guys [Democrats] used to care about. I would hope we could get bipartisan agreement on protecting the First Amendment—the five rights we enjoy as Americans under the First Amendment: Your right to practice your faith, assemble, right to petition the government, freedom of press, freedom of speech. Every single one’s been attacked in the last two years.”

“The government was telling people they couldn’t go to church a few years ago,” he noted. “Your right to assemble, petition the government—the Democrats kept the Capitol closed, a citizen couldn’t come to your Capitol that you pay for to redress your grievances because Nancy Pelosi wouldn’t let you in!”

“Freedom of the press—I just told you what the head of the intel committee tried to do to a journalist,” he continued. “The most important right we have, though, is your right to talk. Because if you can’t talk, you can’t practice your faith. You can’t share your faith. You can’t petition your government. The right to speak is the most important, and that’s what they [the federal government agencies] are going after.”

The US Virgin Islands case against JP Morgan just got even weirder.

Recall that in late December, Attorney General Denise George sued the bank, claiming they reaped financial benefits from Epstein’s sex-trafficking operation.

Three days later, George was fired.

The original complaint against the bank filed by George included a lengthy-but-redacted section on “High Net Worth Clients” Epstein brought to JPMorgan. It had 11 separate entries spanning three pages of the complaint – which James O’Keefe of Project Veritas wants to get his hands on.

Send us the un-redacted version of this lawsuit from the Virgin Islands lawsuit naming Epstein’s clients, to Veritastips@protonmail.com

Our investigative reporters will corroborate and meet with the named using hidden cameras

Privacy of the list? Or the public’s right to know? pic.twitter.com/rKpRdOl0Sf

— James O’Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) January 10, 2023

The original complaint notes that Epstein had an extensive relationship with former JPM Exec Jes Staley, who was CEO of Barclays until he resigned in 2001 over his ties to the pedophile.

One week after George’s firing, the US Virgin Islands has filed an amended complaint which significantly shortens the “High Net Worth Clients” list to just three entries, and unredacts a name we already knew about; Glenn Dubin, the owner of Highbridge Capital Management whose wife once told Epstein’s probation officer that she was “100% comfortable” with Jeffrey Epstein being around her minor children.

This is also nothing new – as we’ve known since 2019 that Epstein introduced Dubin to Staley, and reportedly received a $15 million fee in 2004 after JPMorgan Chase bought control of Dubin’s hedge fund, Highbridge Capital.

The Dubins and Epstein were close, and remained close after his 2008 conviction for pedophilia – inviting him to their Palm Beach home for Thanksgiving the following year. According to Vanity Fair, several sources said that Epstein was the godfather to the Dubins’ three children – a claim which the family disputed (“The Dubins are Jewish and Jewish people do not typically do godparents,” said a spokesman). 

Dubin also directed some of Epstein’s money to at least two hedge fund mangers; Dan Zwirn and Joseph Kusnan – both former Highbridge employees who left to start their own firms. 

“Glenn Dubin introduced me to Epstein as a new manager that he was familiar with and thought highly of,” Kusnan told Vanity Fair – insisting that he and Epstein only met once, and never communicated again. Notably, Kusnan delivered “a good rate of return on his modest investment.” 

The relationship between Epstein and Dubin also ventured into more controversial realms, if one believes the depositions recently unsealed in an old court case between one of Epstein’s alleged victims, Virginia Giuffre, and Epstein’s longtime companion and alleged madam, Ghislaine Maxwell. According to Giuffre’s May 2016 deposition, Dubin was the “first” powerful person that Maxwell sent her to have sex with “after my training.” She also said that she was instructed by Maxwell to have sex with, among others, Alan Dershowitz, the Harvard Law professor; George Mitchell, the former U.S. senator; Bill Richardson,the former New Mexico governor; and Jean-Luc Brunel, a French model scout. “My whole life revolved around just pleasing these men and keeping Ghislaine and Jeffrey happy,” Giuffre said in her deposition. “[Maxwell and Epstein’s] whole entire lives revolved around sex. They call massages sex. They call modeling sex.” She said Maxwell told her to give Dubin “a massage.” (The Dubins categorically deny Giuffre’s allegations. Their spokesperson also provided evidence they say disproves Giuffre’s account. Dershowitz, Mitchell, Richardson, and Brunel have also denied her allegations.) –Vanity Fair

Did the Dubins bring in a 15-year-old girl?

Former Dubin chef and assistant Rinaldo Rizzo claimed in an unsealed June 2016 deposition that when he and his wife Debra worked for the Dubins, Andersson-Dubin brought home a 15-year-old Swedish girl who had been with Epstein and Maxwell during a visit to the Dubins’ home. 

The girl was “distraught,” “upset,” and “she was shaking” said Rizzo, who added that the girl seemed “on the verge of crying.” 

According to the report, “[T]he girl told him and his wife that she worked for Epstein as his “executive personal assistant,” and when Rizzo expressed shock that such a young girl could have that job, “she just breaks down hysterically.” Rizzo stated that the girl told him she was involved in some forced sexual activity at Epstein’s Caribbean island and was told by Maxwell and Epstein not to discuss it.“

But about a month later, according to Rizzo, the Dubins, along with the girl and the Rizzos, were on Dubin’s private jet back to Sweden and the girl was returned home. “We flew to Sweden,” Rizzo said in his deposition, “we stopped at an airport we didn’t usually stop at and she got off the plane.” The Rizzos left the Dubins’ employ in October 2005, following those events, he said in his deposition. “My wife and I had discussed these incidents, and this last one was just, we couldn’t deal with it,” he said. –Vanity Fair

The Dubins have denied everything – stating through a spokesman who shared flight records “There was never a 15-year-old Swedish nanny in the Dubins’ home and flight records for trips to Sweden on the Dubins’ plane do not include any minors other than family members.” The Dubins’ longtime live-in nanny also attested “with certainty” that they had never employed an underage nanny. 

That said, the Dubins did confirm having traveled with Epstein on his private jet – occasionally flying between Palm Beach and New York, where they all had homes. Maxwell, meanwhile, flew on Dubin’s plane twice along with his children; once in 2004 and again in 2010. 

Pilot Jim Dowd who flew for both Epstein and the Dubins said that both men were “friends” who liked “vacationing together.” 

Dubins and Wexner

Last but not least, Vanity Fair‘s Cohan notes that the Dubins were close enough to Victoria’s Secret boss (and former Epstein pal) Leslie Wexner, the billionaire founder and CEO of L Brands. Wexner – Epstein’s only known financial client – allowed the Dubins and their children to use their 316-foot, $100 million yacht, Limitless, for a Mediterranean vacation.

“Wexner’s wife, Abigail,“graciously invited the Dubins to use their boat for four days while Eva Dubin was recovering from breast cancer surgery,” Dubin’s spokesperson explained,” according to the report – which adds that it was “quite unusual for Wexner to let anyone use Limitless when he was not on board.” 

Interestingly – all parties have denied all wrongdoing, and many claim to have had no knowledge of Epstein’s proclivities despite hanging out with him during and following his conviction for pedophilia. What’s wrong with these people?

The bottom line, however, is that the US Virgin Islands fired AG George, then one week later filed an amended complaint with significant edits to the “High Net Worth Client” section, and unredacted names of people we already knew about.

Amended complaint below:

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last year was a tough one for investors. In fact, it was the worst year for Wall Street since 2008. The Dow was down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 fell by 19.4%, dropping more than 20% from its high. The Nasdaq took the worst hit, tumbling by 33.1%. Meanwhile, the bond market tanked, bitcoin collapsed, and the air started coming out of the real estate bubble.

Peter Schiff recently did an interview with the Epoch Times. He predicted more pain in 2023, primarily driven by inflation and the Federal Reserve.

While price inflation has cooled a bit, it is still running far above the Fed’s 2% target. Nevertheless, there is talk about a Fed pivot to rate cuts in the year ahead. Peter pointed out that “the last couple of times the Fed was able to orchestrate a pivot, it did it when inflation was 2% or less.” If the central bank makes that move in the near future,  it will “throw gasoline on the fire.”

High inflation gets even higher, and in that environment, I don’t see financial assets as a group doing well.”

Peter said bonds, in particular, will get killed.

That’s bad news for the US government as it continues to borrow and spend. A tanking bond market means higher interest rates – a big problem for a country trying to borrow more and more money.

Peter said that the year ahead could be particularly rocky for unprofitable tech companies that benefited from the Fed’s easy money policies in the past, and he sees a continued rotation into “value” stocks from companies with a proven track record of profitability.

If money is losing value much faster than 2% a year, you don’t want to wait 10–20 years to get your money. … It’s not companies that are promising earnings in the future. It’s companies that have earnings right now.”

More broadly speaking, Peter said inflation will continue to wear down consumers and make it more difficult for companies to maintain revenue streams.

If your customers are spending a lot more money on food, on energy, on insurance, on rent, on taxes, and they have nothing left over, then it doesn’t even matter if you cut your prices. You don’t have any customers.”

Peter said the Fed has turned the markets into “a casino” with artificially low interest rates and money printing. It has distorted markets and created all kinds of malinvestments.

It’s really helped undermine the productivity of the American economy, which is one of the reasons we have huge trade deficits.”

In fact, the central bank has become the dominant factor in investors’ decision-making.

The Fed should be irrelevant. Nobody should be making investment decisions based on the Fed. Right now, the Fed is the only thing anybody cares about. ‘Are they going to raise rates? By how much?’ Everything is riding on the decision of a few guys sitting in a room in Washington, DC That’s not how capitalism is supposed to work.”

Peter questioned why the Fed should have the power to decide the price of money.

That makes no more sense than putting together a bureau to decide the price of oil, or the price of milk, or the price of bread … That’s what the Soviet Union used to do, and it was a disaster.”