Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal prosecutors have charged a recently discharged U.S. Marine with making threats to attack white people in a mass shooting.

On Monday, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey announced the arrest of Joshua Cobb, 23, on a single-count indictment of transmitting an interstate threat over the internet. According to a complaint filed in the case, Mr. Cobb authored a social media post on Dec. 17, 2022, indicating his interest in inflicting mayhem “on the white community.”

The author of the Dec. 17, 2022, social media post states, “I want to cause mayhem on the white community. The reason i specifically want to target white people is because as a black male, they will NEVER understand my struggles.”

The post’s author goes on to state he has already begun planning the attack, which he intended to carry out somewhere in New Jersey at some point in 2023, though he had not chosen an exact time.

“I have not chosen a exact date but I am going to be sure it is close to an important holiday to their race. I have a location in mind already which I have frequented for the past year and I am certain nobody there is armed to be able to stop me from spraying them to the ground,” the suspect’s social media post continues. “I have already acquired 2 of the 4 firearms I plan to use for my attack, and I also know my entry and exit points already after the mayhem.”

The social media post was published under the handle “NearbyUserl0l.” Investigators determined that social media activity was associated with an internet protocol (IP) address matching the Trenton, New Jersey residence in which Mr. Cobb resided at the time.

Suspect Planned to ‘Continue Training’ For Attack

Federal prosecutors allege Mr. Cobb made subsequent posts on a second social media platform in the Spring of 2023, expressing homicidal ideations. A May 2023 social media post states, “Imagine the rush you’d feel while shooting some [expletive] up. Probably could get literally high off the adrenaline alone. I’d probably OD on my own adrenaline after the 10th body goes down.” Another May 2023 post states, “I hope I do progress into a serial killer because I [expletive] hate life man… But one day everyone will suffer. I promise I will make everyone feel my [expletive] pain. My deep, sincere, raw, & sharp pain.” Prosecutors say Mr. Cobb’s posts also indicated a plan to “continue training and buying more ammunition” until the day he could carry out his attack.

Mr. Cobb joined the U.S. Marine Corps and entered basic training in June 2023. The Marine trainee completed his basic training in September and was given a period of post-basic leave. He arrived at another duty station, the Marine Corps Air-Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms (Twentynine Palms), in California in February of this year.

Investigators eventually caught up with Mr. Cobb last month while he was still stationed at Twentynine Palms. They seized and searched his phone, finding additional notes he allegedly made in May 2023 expressing further homicidal ideations.

Suspect Discussed Attack Ideas in FBI Interview

The federal complaint indicates that FBI agents interviewed Mr. Cobb at the Marine Corps in April after they had seized his phone. The complaint states that during his interview, Mr. Cobb described to FBI agents his ideas for carrying out mass shootings, including one idea he had to shoot up a gym called New Jersey Strong, believing he could carry out the attack at the gym’s peak hours and then easily escape. Mr. Cobb described a second idea of attacking a grocery store because those are “almost always crowded.”

Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents he specifically thought of targeting an Aldi’s grocery store in Robbinsville, New Jersey, “cause it was like one of them grocery stores like where you just see all these [expletive] rich-[expletive] white people.”

Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents a third idea he had was to simply “go into like a rich white area and just like start shooting.”

During the April interview, Mr. Cobb allegedly suggested an affinity for the suspects in the 2018 Parkland High School shooting in Florida and the 2022 shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York. In the latter of those two shootings, federal prosecutors have alleged the shooter posted a manifesto expressing a desire to specifically target a black community. Despite their differing racial motives, Mr. Cobb said he “liked the element of surprise and style” of the 2022 Buffalo supermarket attack.

Mr. Cobb was discharged from the Marine Corps sometime after his April interview with the FBI.

NTD News reached out to a pair of public defenders assigned to Mr. Cobb’s case for comment, but they did not respond by press time.

Mr. Cobb faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted.

From NTD News

A team of Goldman analysts led by Jan Hatzius found that domestic migration trends from big cities continued through mid-2023. This trend, initially sparked by virus fears and remote working, was further fueled by rising violent crime in urban areas. People sought peace and quiet, moving to suburbia and rural areas for more land and larger homes.    

“The recent surge in immigration into the US is now well known. But newly released county-level population estimates from the Census reveal another major migration trend: domestic emigration from large cities,” Hatzius told clients on Wednesday.

Goldamn’s chief economist said – that most cities – with populations over a million – “experienced population growth nearly 1% below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while all but the most rural counties experienced above-trend population growth.” 

Here’s more color on the findings: 

First, the most urban Tier 1 counties, which include cities such as Kansas City, New Orleans, and Cleveland, experienced population growth nearly 1pp below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while counties in Tiers 2-7, which include cities such as Ann Arbor in Tier 2, Santa Fe in Tier 3, and Juneau in Tier 5, experienced population growth 0.4pp above the pre-pandemic trends on average over that period (Exhibit 1).

The rise of remote and hybrid work arrangements made it easier for workers to relocate away from offices that might have tied them to city centers prior to the pandemic. We noted previously that the share of US workers working from home at least part of the week peaked at 47% at the height of the pandemic and has now stabilized at around 20-25%, well above the pre-pandemic average of 2-3%.

Hatzius’ team also revealed that government county-level population data showed domestic migrants were leaving big cities in droves (about 750k in 2021, 650k in 2022, and 550k in 2023). More than half of them moved to areas between 250k to 1 million. This outflow comes as the Biden administration facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen, piling migrants into crime-ridden progressive cities.

Given the strong positive population trends outside large cities, Hatzius’ team determined housing markets were hotter in suburbia: 

“Stronger population growth outside the Tier 1 counties has meant somewhat faster house price appreciation relative to pre-pandemic trends compared to the Tier 1 counties.”

The bad news is that housing prices in suburbia are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels. 

Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit claiming that Wisconsin’s requirement for witnesses to sign for absentee voters clashes with federal law.

The claims by plaintiffs, four voters represented by Democrat firm Elias Law Group, are based on faulty interpretations of the law, according to U.S. District Judge James Peterson.

The challengers said the Voting Rights Act unilaterally bars requiring absentee voters to prove their qualifications, making the Wisconsin requirement illegal. The act states in part that “no citizen shall be denied, because of his failure to comply with any test or device, the right to vote in any federal, state, or local election conducted in any state or political subdivision of a state.” It defines “test or device,” in part, as any requirement that makes a person “prove his qualifications by the voucher of registered voters or members of any other class.”

However, that interpretation of the federal law is not correct, Judge Peterson said in his May 9 ruling.

“Plaintiffs say that Wisconsin law requires the witness to do more than ensure that the voter followed the proper procedure in preparing the ballot; rather, the witness must also certify that the voter is eligible to vote,” he said. “But that interpretation is inconsistent with the text and purpose of the statute, and it is inconsistent with how the law has been interpreted since it was enacted. Even the plaintiffs themselves do not say in their declarations that they believe they need to find a witness who can certify their qualifications to vote.”

In Wisconsin, any qualified voter who is “unable or unwilling” to vote in person is eligible for an absentee ballot. The law states that among requirements to vote by mail, another adult must observe the voter filling out the ballot and signing a statement that reads, in part, that “the above statements are true and the voting procedure was executed as there stated.”

As the “above statements” include the attestation from the voter that he or she is a resident of Wisconsin and entitled to vote in the state, plaintiffs said the requirement is illegal under federal law.

However, government officials argued that the witnesses only confirm the second part of the statements, which states that the voter certifies that he or she showed the enclosed ballot to the witness and that he or she marked the ballot and placed it in the envelope without assistance.

“If defendants are correct, there would be no violation of the Voting Rights Act. As other courts have held, a witness does not vouch for a voter’s qualifications by simply confirming with a signature what he or she observed,” said Judge Peterson, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

He said that the phrase “the above statements” is ambiguous but that the plaintiffs’ interpretation “simply does not make any sense.”

If they were correct, “every witness would have to determine the voter’s age, residence, citizenship, criminal history, whether the voter is unable or unwilling to vote in person, whether the voter has voted at another location or is planning to do so, whether the voter is capable of understanding the objective of the voting process, whether the voter is under a guardianship, and, if so, whether a court has determined that the voter is competent,” according to Judge Peterson.

“If plaintiffs’ interpretation were correct, it would mean that countless absentee ballots over decades were invalid because the witness certified that the voter was qualified to vote and met the other requirements in the first voter certification, even though the witness had no basis for such a certification,” he said.

The challengers never provided evidence of any witnesses being penalized for not confirming a voter’s qualifications, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s guidance does not mention witnesses taking any steps to confirm voters are eligible to vote, the ruling noted.

The lawsuit also stated that the witness requirement violates the Civil Rights Act, which bars people from “[denying] the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relating to any application, registration, or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified under state law to vote in such election.”

The Wisconsin Elections Commission, the defendant, declined to comment.

The law group did not return an inquiry.

The organization Restoring Integrity and Trust in Elections, which lodged an amicus brief in support of the government in the case, welcomed the ruling.

“It’s essential that people voting by mail follow the law in doing so, and Wisconsin has implemented a witness signature requirement that helps ensure they do just that,” Derek Lyons, president of the group, said in a statement. “This case marks another example of liberal activists’ transparent and shameful efforts to co-opt important civil rights legislation for their partisan agendas.”

President Donald Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen had his “knees chopped out” by Donald Trump’s defense attorneys in cross-examination during Trump’s ‘hush money’ trial.

Cohen was grilled by Trump attorney Todd Blanche about a pivotal phone call that connected Trump to allegations that he approved reimbursements to pay porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. In one exchange, Blanche accused Cohen of lying about speaking with Trump on the phone in October 2016 to reassure his boss that he was handling the payment to Daniels.

Blanche then confronted Cohen with text messages that contradicted the lie – revealing that Cohen in fact spoke with Trump’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller.

Trump attorney Todd Blanche grilled him about a pivotal phone call that had connected President Trump to the allegations at the center of the case. He accused Mr. Cohen of calling the former president’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller, to complain about harassing phone calls—not to disclose an update on a plan to purchase the silence of Ms. Clifford.

Mr. Cohen said that the prank calls were a part of the conversation with Mr. Schiller.

“Now your memory is that you were testifying truthfully on Tuesday, and you had enough time to update Mr. Schiller about all the problems you were having with these harassing calls?” Mr. Blanche asked him.

“I always run everything by the boss immediately,” Mr. Cohen said. “It could’ve just been me saying, ‘everything’s been taken care of, it’s been resolved.’”

“That was a lie. You did not talk to President Trump that night,” Mr. Blanche said. “You can admit it.” “No sir, I can’t,” Mr. Cohen said. “Because I’m not sure that’s accurate.”

“This jury doesn’t want to hear what you think happened,” Mr. Blanche said. –Epoch Times

Cohen appeared blindsided by the line of questioning, and wavered in his recollection of the phone call before blurting out “I believe I was telling the truth!”

Blanche then slapped Cohen around for telling Congress that he didn’t want to work in the Trump administration – only to be confronted with conversations in 2016 in which he expressed disappointment that he was overlooked for the role of Trump’s chief of staff.

Cohen also lied about seeking a pardon from Trump, for which his attorneys later had to issue a statement to correct the record.

After Cohen had his ass handed to him, CNN pundits were beside themselves.

“It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie,” said host Anderson Cooper.

Anderson Cooper was left stunned by Trump’s attorney’s cross examination of Michael Cohen

“It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie” pic.twitter.com/WKnKCs8TkU

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) May 16, 2024

The network’s top legal analyst said “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a star witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.”

CNN legal analyst: “I don’t think I’ve never seen a star cooperating witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.” pic.twitter.com/NcghETrUIJ

— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) May 16, 2024

Rep. Matt Gaetz says Cohen was “dog walked through the series of lies he has told.”

The alleged “crime” by President Trump is made up!

No other American in the country would be charged with this type of crime.

I watched Michael Cohen get dog walked through the series of lies he has told. There is literally no branch of government that he has not lied to. pic.twitter.com/Fi1GpbCF13

— Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) May 16, 2024

Fin…

Authored by Salena Zito via RealClearPolitics,

NEWTON SQUARE, PA – In childhood, Tasliym Morales was always interested in civic affairs, so it was no surprise to those who knew her that as soon she turned 18, she registered to vote. What did take her family and friends aback, however, was the political party affiliation she chose.

“Republican,” she says with a broad smile.

The striking mother of six is sitting at the head table of the Delaware County Republican Party chairman’s dinner, dressed in a rich red jacket topping a paisley dress discussing her reasons for choosing the Grand Old Party when most of her peers and family – Morales is black – were Democrats.

Explaining her choice is still amusing to her. “Democrats, reporters, strategists often come to our county because of how important the vote is here in determining which way Pennsylvania will go in big elections and often assume all black women are Democrats,” she explained of the Philadelphia collar county she calls home.

“I understand why because let’s be honest, many educated black women are Democrats,” she added. “However, I think more and more people of all colors are starting to vote for what is best for their personal lives and what is best for their community. Even more importantly, people are starting to vote like the other members of the community, rather than vote one way because of the color of their skin.”

Seated across the table from Tasliym was Alfe Goodwin, a former Philadelphia police officer and U.S. Army veteran who holds a doctorate degree in public policy and is running against incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon in Pennsylvania’s 5th Congressional District.

Goodwin, whose parents labored in the civil rights movement in Philadelphia in the 1960s, said she was initially a Libertarian and became drawn to the Republican Party because of a sense of purpose she felt among fellow members.

A shift in the polls toward Donald Trump among black voters has been met largely with skepticism by the national press and dismissed by talking heads on cable news – perhaps because they don’t know any person of color in their social or professional circle who would ever consider voting Republican.

Late last month, a Gallup survey found Democrats’ lead over Republicans among black Americans had dropped by 20 percentage points in the past three years.

Muhlenberg College political science professor Chris Borick said that in a swing state like Pennsylvania where polls show a tight race between Trump and President Biden and everything is decided within the polling margin of error, “no party can afford to lose even the smallest amount of their reliable voting bloc.”

“You cannot take any of your coalition for granted, this can be a problem for Joe Biden but also Bob Casey Jr. in the Senate race,” Borick said.

Pennsylvania is a prime example. Four years ago, Biden carried more than 90% of the black vote in the state according to exit polls. Black women that year gave Biden an impressive 94% of their vote, a number that secured the 20 critical electoral votes needed for him to win the state.

Monday’s New York Times/Siena Pennsylvania poll showed some interesting nuggets; voters like Morales and Goodwin are starting to show up in the numbers.

Morales, 41, explains the generational shift among black voters has been incremental, “But it has been moving for a while,” she said. “As a woman of color, I sit in Republican spaces so they can see me, hear me, and understand me.”

The issues that drive her are no different than those of her white or Hispanic neighbors. “I don’t like my whole check going to taxes,” she said. “I hate that people cannot freely express themselves religiously without retaliation. I don’t like that tolerance is one-sided.”

Morales said the first Republican she voted for was for George W. Bush, and she did it twice. Disapproving of Sarah Palin, she did not support John McCain in 2008 but voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

In 2020, she could not bring herself to vote for Biden or Trump. “I couldn’t do it again,” she said of Trump. “The crazy thing is I agree with him on a lot of issues; I just hate his deliverance and disposition.”

Although Morales was a Nikki Haley fan and is undecided about the top of the ticket, her down-ballot support for Republicans is unwavering, “Dave McCormick? Yes he has my vote.” she said of the Republican businessman who is challenging Sen. Casey.

Youngstown State University professor Paul Sracic notes that 2024 is shaping up as a very close contest that will be decided by perhaps fewer than a couple hundred thousand votes, maybe less, in a handful of states – with the two candidates’ records on the economy looming over the election.

“Voters, regardless of race, have two recent economic records to compare,” Sracic said. “The perennial question for an incumbent is ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ In 2024, Trump can add to that,  ‘When I was last president…’”

At the same time, each major party is relying on a coalition of voters whom they have come to take for granted – perhaps at their peril. “If any part of that coalition were to switch sides, even in small numbers, it could change the result of the election. For example, if Republicans were to lose even a small percentage of evangelical voters, it could make a huge difference in the outcome,” Sracic said.

A similar dynamic exists for Democrats with various demographics, especially African American voters. “If we are talking about the potential voting behavior of middle-class black women, why wouldn’t we think that they might be responding to the same economic variables, and making the same comparisons, as middle-class white voters,” Sracic added.

Michele Reynolds agrees. In an interview in March, the first African American woman elected as a Republican in Franklin County to the Ohio state Senate said black middle-class or working-class voters have the same economic problems as their white neighbors.

Reynolds, who was hosting an event for Bernie Moreno in a former church in a working-class black neighborhood in Columbus, said no matter what color you are, the economy is failing middle America, “And people are looking at the message that everything is fine and they know it is not because they have to pay the bills,” she said.

While Trump holds a sizeable lead over Biden in Ohio in the RealClearPolitics Average, Reynolds warns that it is the Ohio Senate race between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican businessman Bernie Moreno where the black voters, men and women, could change everything for who holds the majority in the Senate come next January. 

The event for Moreno that Reynolds held was filled with black, white, and Hispanic voters looking for someone to hear their concerns. Nanette Taylor, a local entrepreneur, handed people Moreno signs as they left. “Events like this go unnoticed,” she said. “We are tucked away off the highway and not many people are paying attention. Then when Election Day [comes] and what most folks thought would happen doesn’t, they wonder how did we miss that?”

Salena Zito is a reporter for the Washington Examiner, Wall Street Journal contributor, and co-author of “The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above the historic 40,000 mark in late morning and early afternoon trading. Euphoria was high as bulls celebrated Dow 40,000. This week’s gains across broad equity indexes were primarily driven by a cooler April CPI print and dismal retail data on Wednesday, along with cooling Philly Fed data, surprisingly weak home-building activity, and a flat industrial production report on Thursday. The macro-intensive week puts the economy potentially on a soft-landing approach, with the Federal Reserve likely to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. However, around 1300 ET, broad selling pressure hit US equity indexes, pushing them flat to red for the session. The Dow has since lost the 40,000 mark.

The S&P 500 flirted with the 5,300 level for most of the session. Walmart surged to a record as earnings guided higher as wealthy consumers traded down to the big box retailer, driving sales higher. 

Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co told Bloomberg that the stock market experienced a breakout to all-time highs this week, though it might be time for a short-term “breather” before further gains are seen. 

The GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings short squeezes by Roaring Kitty faded into the end of the week. 

Long-short hedge funds were hit hard on Monday and Tuesday as the most shorted stocks, including meme stocks like GME and AMC, surged higher. However, as the rally in these heavily shorted stocks reversed, hedge funds have managed to recover most of their recent losses.

“Our HF VIP vs. Most short (GSPRHVMS Index) is +215bps today, now down only -2.5% in the last five days. As of Tuesday, this was down as much as -12%. This feels much more orderly (Unwinds of macro hedges),” Goldman’s Chloe Garber wrote in a midday note. 

Here are some of Garber’s key observations in markets today via the bank’s trading desk:

• All micro today: WMT +6% on EBIT upside and sales at the high end of the range; DE -3% on a Q2 beat but full year cut; UAA (+66bps) went from -15% to green on the day… shorted name/ one of the worst guides of the EPS season so far. Goldman thinks the stock went green because ppl aware of the consumer pressures at this point.

• 45% of the total market volume so far today is in <$1 stocks (CRKN, GWAV, FFIE, SINT stick out specifically. This compares to YTD average of ~12% for <$1 stocks.  Clearly a knock-on effect associated w/ meme stock activity.

• Volumes elevated today +30% vs the rest of the week, with S&P top of  book tracking higher as well. The floor is skewed +8% better to buy today led largely by LO buying.

• LOs most active in tech and macro products on the buy side, vs selling cons discretionary. HFs also much better buyers with  demand concentrated in macro products, HC, Industrials, and Tech. HFs are selling Fins, staples, and Energy.

The macro-intensive week has sent the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to its lowest level since September 2022, as economic data increasingly prints to the downside as the economy slows. 

After all this data, yields on 10-year US Treasuries are marginally higher on the session, trading around 4.37%. 

Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance said, “Breaking the 40,000 barrier is a big psychological boost for the bulls as round numbers hold special significance in people’s hearts and minds.” 

Goldman’s Chris Hussey writes in a midday note, “As for markets, the equity market continues to like what it’s seeing in the data — data that is pointing to a decidedly ‘soft’ landing and not the ‘strong’ landing that many had started to worry about through March.” 

Interest-rate swaps showed traders have priced in just two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Probabilities at the moment have the first cut at 86.5% in September. 

The gap between 2-10 year yields inverted further, approaching the 200-day moving average of around 41bps. 

“The re-establishment of a disinflation trend in the coming months should allow the Fed to start easing policy in September,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. 

Taking a look at GS’ latest earning results as 88% of total S&P 500 market cap has reported:

60% beat earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 48%) and 10% of companies missed earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 13%). Consensus expected EPS to grow by 3% at the start of 1Q reporting season. With reporting season almost complete, EPS growth year/year is tracking at +6%.

Chart of the day via GS are energy companies saw the largest increase in AI mentions on earnings call vs the prior quarter. 

Let’s not forget while this is happening…

Dow hits 40,000 on the day the Citi economic surprise index dumps to the lowest level since Sept 2022 pic.twitter.com/QJQj2Fmbws

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 16, 2024

The Vix has tumbled to its lowest intraday level since December. 

Bloomberg outlines one of the most notable Vix option trades today:

• A VIX trader seemingly bought a 22/47.50 call spread expiring Aug. 21 in a 1×2 ratio 20,000 times
• Paid $0.36 per position
• VIX approached 12 midday

Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that persistent inflation will surprise markets, which is an ominous sign for corporate bond markets. 

Ending with S&P500’s daily RSI approach ‘overbought’ levels… 

It’s all or nothing for Dow 40,000. Will the level be sustained, or is this a ‘kiss of death’?

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

PHOENIX, Ariz—Matthew Martinez bounded from map to map, a broad smile on his face.

He pointed out important areas of Arizona and Wisconsin—“super chase” jurisdictions scattered throughout the two battleground states.

Behind him, a few other Turning Point Action staffers were working at a bank of computers.

In the organization’s Phoenix headquarters, the workforce skewed young, in keeping with Turning Point’s focus on organizing and activating young conservatives. Mr. Martinez, a leader of the “Chase the Vote” initiative, is just 23.

He was okay with a journalist photographing his meticulously subdivided maps.

“I’m proud of this operation,” he told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Martinez was showing off the fruits of years of planning by his conservative organization, now ready for the 2024 cycle.

Using a relatively simple equation, Turning Point Action is going after crucial wards and precincts in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. To pull it off, they’re hiring hundreds for a full-time “ballot-chasing army.”

Their goal: turn out Republicans who sat out the last two presidential elections. That includes more positive messaging around early voting and absentee voting.

Turning Point Action’s chief operating officer, Tyler Bowyer, told The Epoch Times his organization was “handed the playbook” they’re using by “defectors from the Left.” He declined to provide any names.

According to Mr. Bowyer, the strategy is downstream of the successful “Colorado model” that Democrats and liberal activists used to flip Colorado from red to blue.

“This is no secret. The Democrats have done this,” Mr. Martinez said.

A Little Counterintuitive

Many of the areas the group is targeting are in deep red territory—for example, Rep. Eli Crane’s (R-Ariz.) district, rated solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report, or Waukesha County, Wisconsin, where President Donald Trump claimed 60 percent of the vote in 2020.

But others are well within Blue America, like chunks of Dane County, home to the University of Wisconsin–Madison. President Joe Biden claimed more than 75 percent of the vote there in the last presidential election.

For those used to politicians contesting competitive purple zones, the approach can seem a little counterintuitive.

While Turning Point Action spokesman Andrew Kolvet said the group is concerned about races “up and down the ticket,” the Chase the Vote strategy seems geared towards winning the presidency, with a few Senate races rendered more competitive in the process.

“We may not flip Dane County, but we can definitely flip the state if we make sure that Republicans turn out to vote in Dane County,” Mr. Martinez said of the “super chase” districts in that area.

“We need ten groups, a hundred groups doing similar things,” Mr. Kolvet said, stressing that Turning Point Action must steward its resources efficiently.

The project is much bigger than a row of colorful maps in Turning Point Action’s HQ, located a few feet away from the headquarters of its sister organization, Turning Point USA. For one thing, they’re chasing a lot of money.

Turning Point Action aims to raise $108 million for Chase the Vote. Mr. Kolvet said the organization has already raised tens of millions of dollars and described the $108 million figure as “aspirational.”

The initiative also aims to make GOP voters more comfortable with early voting, absentee voting, and other alternatives to same-day voting. After the controversial 2020 election, that might prove difficult. Yet, signals from the top could smooth the path.

“Absentee voting, early voting, and election day voting are all good options. Republicans must make a plan, register, and vote!” President Trump posted on Truth Social on April 19.

Chipping Away

With less than half a year to go before Election Day, President Biden is facing headwinds, including Democratic infighting over Israel and historically low approval ratings. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College showed former President Trump ahead in five of six battleground states by margins as wide as 12 percent in Nevada and 10 percent in Georgia.

Yet, more than a few metrics favor the Democrats, at least for now.

Read more here…

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, head of the Duquesne Family Office, sees the artificial intelligence bubble as overextended. He has slashed some of his holdings in “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks, including Nvidia. He’s not alone. Other notable fund managers and company insiders are jumping ship and unloading their shares. 

A recent 13F filing reveals that Druckenmiller’s family office sold over 441,000 shares of Nvidia Corp. in the first quarter, reducing its stake to only 176,000 shares, or worth just about $158 million. Since 13F filings are backward-looking, the firm may have further divested or adjusted those holdings since the first quarter.

We suspect Druckenmiller has not added to his Nvidia holdings. 

Early last week, the billionaire investor appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” explaining that his exposure to Nvidia was reduced after it went from $150 per share to $900 in just over a year. 

“I’m not Warren Buffett,” Druckenmiller emphasized, noting, “I don’t own things for 10 or 20 years. I wish I was Warren Buffett.”

Druckenmiller said that when Microsoft-backed ChatGPT soared in popularity, he doubled down on his Nvidia position because it was an obvious no-brainer. 

“Even an old guy like me could figure out what that meant,” he said, adding the AI boom is likely a “mega-trend like we’ve never seen,” with the potential to be bigger than the internet. 

Druckenmiller concluded: “I just need a break. We’ve had a hell of a run. A lot of what we recognized has become recognized by the marketplace now.” 

Besides Druckenmiller, 13F filings showed David Tepper slashed his holdings in Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms. David Bonderman’s Wildcat Capital Management sold Meta stock, bringing his position to $23.7 million. Michael Platt’s BlueCrest Capital Management dumped Nvidia and Amazon. 

It wasn’t just high-profile fund managers selling tech stocks. Insiders were, too… 

Let’s also remind readers of Druckenmiller’s comments on CNBC last week, where he rated Bidenomics as an “F.” This is an ominous sign that his outlook on the US economy is far from optimistic.

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: “If I were a professor, I’d give them an ‘F’.” pic.twitter.com/WfsU4ecO6y

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) May 7, 2024

Smart money doesn’t want to be caught standing in the game of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s musical chairs when the music stops. 

Via The Cradle

A sizable surveillance aerostat owned by the US military crashed on Wednesday near the town of Rmelan in Syria’s northeastern Al-Hasakah province.

Footage on social media showed the aerostat descending from the sky and, subsequently, its debris on the ground close to Rmelan, which was also near a US base. Allegedly, US fighter jets were seen flying over the vicinity during the event.

The US maintains several illegal bases in Syria, including the one in Rmelan, primarily in the northeastern provinces of Al-Hasakah and Deir Ezzor, as well as Al-Tanf in the southeast, purportedly to combat ISIS remnants. 

Several local sources said the spy balloon crashed due to a technical malfunction, while others indicate that unidentified culprits shot down the aerostat. The Pentagon has yet to comment.

The US initially introduced aerostats to its Syrian bases years ago, although they were considerably smaller than the one that crashed near Rmelan.

The significant size of this aerostat indicates it likely carried sophisticated surveillance equipment, potentially including aerial radar systems.

US spy balloon shot down near Rmelan in NE Hasakah, #Syria. https://t.co/0XGm0zT2rF pic.twitter.com/OBiw1zbj2x

— tim anderson (@timand2037) May 16, 2024

The day prior, the Lebanese group Hezbollah carried out multiple operations against Israel, including the downing of an Israeli surveillance balloon in the south of Lebanon and the demolition of the launching base and the control equipment utilized for its operation.

Hezbollah has been launching daily assaults on Israeli military installations since October 8, in solidarity with Gaza and in support of Palestinians. It has pledged to persist until the war on Gaza is stopped.

Hezbollah announced that it targeted and destroyed an Israeli balloon used to spy on Lebanon over the Israeli settlement of Adamit.

Through close surveillance, the group was also able to determine and target the spy balloon’s control center, which appeared to have been in a… pic.twitter.com/1NLKV82beN

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) May 14, 2024

Hezbollah said, “After tracking the movement of the spy balloon to monitor and spy on Lebanon and after determining its control center, our fighters targeted it with missiles.”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Have a Florida condo? Can you afford a $100,000 or higher special assessment for new safety standards?

After the collapse of a Surfside Building on June 24, 2021that killed 98 people, the state passed a structural safety law that is now biting owners.

Not only are insurance rates soaring, but owners are hit with huge special assessments topping $100,000.

New Florida Law Roils Its Condo Market

The Wall Street Journal reports New Florida Law Roils Its Condo Market

Condo inventory for sale in South Florida has more than doubled since the first quarter of last year, to more than 18,000 units. While the sharp rise in Florida home insurance costs is driving some to sell, most of the units on the market are in buildings 30 years or older. Under the new law, buildings must pass milestone structural inspections no later than 30 years after they are built.

In Miami, about 38% of the housing stock is condos, the highest of any major metropolitan area in the U.S., according to Zillow. Of those buildings, nearly three-quarters are at least 30 years old. For those that have large repairs looming, many owners are scrambling to sell before Jan. 1 when building reserves must be fully funded to be in compliance with the law.

“I think this is just the beginning,” said Greg Main-Baillie, an executive managing director at real-estate firm Colliers, who oversees 40 condo renovation projects across the state.

Owners are struggling to find all-cash buyers because mortgage lenders are increasingly unwilling to take on the risk associated with these units. “It’s not the buyers that aren’t qualifying,” said Craig Studnicky, chief executive at ISG World. “It’s the buildings that aren’t qualifying.”

State law previously allowed condos to waive reserve funding year after year, leading many buildings, including the nearly 50-year-old Cricket Club, to keep next to nothing in their coffers. Now, about 40 units in the building of 220 are listed for sale but are seeing little interest.

“These units are practically being given away,” said Sari Papir, a retired real-estate agent who has lived in the Cricket Club with her partner Shaul Szlaifer since 2018. “Even if we found a buyer, what could we buy with the pennies we’d receive for our unit?”

Some are worried developers may already be purchasing condos in the building for a potential takeover, where a developer tries to gain control of a building to knock it down and build a newer, more luxurious one. These condo terminations are happening up and down the state’s coastline. While the rules can vary by building, if enough people vote to sell their units, the others have to follow along.

No Way to Escape the Assessment

Those who cannot sell and don’t have the special assessment, will be evicted and their units seized for whatever the Associations can get for them.

South Florida listings have doubled in the past year to over 18,000. Few of those units will sell, and those that do sell will be at a huge haircut.

The Journal noted the plight of Ivan Rodriguez who liquidated his 401K to buy a condo for $190,000. He then faced a $134,000 special assessment. Eventually he sold the unit for $110,000.

Got the Insurance Blues?

Auto insurance is up more than 20 percent from a year ago. In many places, private home insurance isn’t available at all. Consumers are steaming.

Insurance data from the BLS, chart by Mish

On February 17, 2024 I asked Got the Insurance Blues? Auto and Home Insurance Costs are Soaring

Car insurance is on an amazing run. For 13 straight months, insurance is up at least 1.0 percent. For 20 straight months car insurance is up at least 0.7 percent.

Home insurance, if you can get it at all from any private insurer, is also rising at a fast clip.

If you live in a flood zone, hurricane zone, or fire zone, insurance may be very difficult to get.

Proposition 103 Backfires, State Farm to Cancel 72,000 California Policies

Citing wildfire risk, State Farm will not renew policies on 30,000 homes and 42,000 business in California. Blame the state, not insurers.

On March 26, I noted Proposition 103 Backfires, State Farm to Cancel 72,000 California Policies

Proposition 103 limited the annual increases of insurance companies. State Farm responded by cancelling 72,000 policies.

The Idiot’s Response

Carmen Balber, the executive director of Consumer Watchdog, said “The industry is not going to start covering Californians again without a mandate.”

“That is why we think the legislature needs to step in and require insurance companies to cover people.”

Force companies to cover people. What a hoot. The insurers would all leave and everyone would be on the “FAIR” plan.

Think!

Think carefully about where you want to live. And if it’s a condo, you better be prepared for huge special assessments.

And most of all, know your builder. For discussion, please see America’s Homebuilder: D.R. Horton Homes Falling Apart in Months