Update(1255ET): There are breaking reports from several Middle East outlets, including Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya that Hamas has accepted the ceasefire proposal of Egypt and Qatar.

BREAKING: Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal.

However, almost immediately on the heels of the above statement came this rejection:

Israeli army radio journalist: “Sources in Israel: Hamas actually approved a softened Egyptian proposal that is unacceptable to Israel.”

This was enough to elicit a rapid response in oil prices, with a sudden drop on the initial headline before quickly correcting upward…

According to a WSJ description of the “Egyptian proposal” in question:

Egypt offered a new proposal for a truce between Israel and Hamas in which some Israeli hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a three-week cease-fire, in a bid to stave off an Israeli military offensive in the southern Gazan city of Rafah.

Israel, which helped create the proposal, according to Egyptian officials, would commit to entering longer-term discussions once Hamas releases a first group of 20 hostages over the truce period—a formulation designed to overcome the militant group’s reluctance to release any hostages without any prospect of ending the war.

* * *

Update(10:50ET): As of Saturday the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations were widely reported to be very ‘close’ to reaching a truce deal to free up to 40 Israeli hostages, but with Israel’s military on Monday clearly preparing for an offensive on Rafah, the talks are collapsing. According to the latest via NewsSquawk: 

Hamas sources report that they have decided to freeze ceasefire negotiations with Israel and postpone the return of their delegation to Cairo, via Faytuks citing al-Jadeed.

Both sides are already blaming the other for what are increasingly looking to be failed talks. IDF strikes against parts of Rafah have at the same time intensified. “Israel’s military carried out airstrikes in Rafah on Monday, residents said, hours after Israel told Palestinians to evacuate parts of the southern Gaza city where more than a million people uprooted by the war have been sheltering,” Reuters reports.

“Fears are growing of a full-blown assault in Rafah, long threatened by Israel, against holdouts of the Palestinian militant group Hamas as ceasefire talks in Cairo stall,” Reuters continues. “Hamas official Izzat al-Rashiq said in a statement that any Israeli operation in Rafah would put the truce talks in jeopardy.”

Israel’s military announced the Rafah offensive would proceed, and warned civilians to evacuate the eastern part of the city, in the wake of a Hamas rocket attack on the outskirts of Rafah which killed four Israeli troops. Sunday through Monday IDF airstrikes on the city killed at least 28, including 11 children, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

An Egyptian official tells @Alhadath_Brk that Hamas attack on Kerem Shalom on Sunday that killed several IDF soldiers sabotaged the hostage deal talks https://t.co/nggj9fs6Q1

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 6, 2024

Some are accusing Hamas of sabotaging the deal with the deadly rocket attack, while others blame Netanyahu – alleging that negotiations were just a cover and stalling tactic ahead of a Rafah onslaught. 

On Monday Biden held a phone call with PM Netanyahu, wherein the US president likely urged against a new offensive and to advance ceasefire talks forward. According to Al Jazeera:

The United States is still concerned that this may go ahead while there is the possibility of talks over a ceasefire. But in Washington there’s also the suggestion that perhaps the Israelis are pushing ahead with this plan to force Hamas to the negotiating table and agree to Israel’s terms.

The talks come amid a backdrop of what Netanyahu said in an address to the Israeli people at the weekend – that you “cannot trust the promises of gentiles [non-Jews]”. That has angered a lot of people in Washington, not least because of the support President Joe Biden has given Israel, and the support that he has given them militarily.

Axios previously reported that the US has begun withholding ammunition transfers from Israel, but this is likely minimal and merely symbolic at this point.

* * *

The last several hours have seen a significant escalation of the situation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, sending Western diplomats scrambling and resulting in new threats and counterthreats between Hamas and Israeli leaders.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have urged many thousands of Palestinian civilians to urgently evacuate ahead of an impending ground offensive. In the overnight hours Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Israel now believes it has no choice but the carry on with the major ground operation, despite it having been stalled for months.

Gallant cited that a Hamas rocket attack was carried out from Rafah, killing four Israeli soldiers. Airstrikes in eastern Rafah have already begun, and residents and refugees there are being dropped flyers – and homes are also reportedly receiving urgent messages – telling them to evacuate immediately.

An expanded humanitarian zone is being set up by the IDF in the vicinity of the al-Mawasi and Khan Younis areas of southern Gaza.

“Driving through Rafah, the tension was palpable with people evacuating as rapidly as they could,” a British humanitarian health workers was cited by Al Jazeera as saying.

The IDF is calling this a “limited scope operation” – with army spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani describing that for now 100,000 people were being ordered to move to the humanitarian zone. The army has further issued a map of the evacuation area and ‘safe zones’.

A military statement said that “in accordance with the approval of the political echelon, the IDF calls on the population, which is under the control of Hamas, to temporarily evacuate from the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah to the expanded humanitarian zone.”

“This matter will progress gradually, according to an ongoing assessment of the situation,” it added. “The IDF will continue to pursue Hamas everywhere in Gaza until all the hostages that they’re holding in captivity are back home.”

As for the tens of thousands of warning flyers currently being dropped, one reads: “Anyone found near (militant) organizations endangers themselves and their family members. For your safety, the (army) urges you to evacuate immediately to the expanded humanitarian area.”

And the flyers further stipulate: “It is prohibited to come near to the eastern and southern security fences.” Humanitarian aid organizations, including the UN and some Western governments have warned that an all-out assault on Rafah, which has swelled during the war to some 1.5 million people (mostly internally displaced refugees), will be a humanitarian catastrophe.

There are also fears that at a moment CIA director William Burns is in the region trying to salvage negotiations toward reaching a deal for the return of hostages, any hope for a truce will dashed by the Rafah operation.

But so far, Hamas as indicated it is still committed to the talks. “We will continue the negotiations positively and with an open heart,” Hamas spokesman Abdul Latif al-Qanou told AFP. He said an agreement is still needed “for a permanent ceasefire and the fulfilment of the demands of our people.”

But Prime Minister Netanyahu has not backed off his ultimate aim of seeing the total eradication of Hamas complete, which requires going after the remaining battalions in Rafah city. According to Israeli media:

Israeli officials have said the terror group has six remaining battalions in the Gaza Strip, four of them in Rafah: Yabna (South), Shaboura (North), Tel Sultan (West) and East Rafah. Two more Hamas battalions remain in central Gaza, in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah camps.

Hamas is meanwhile warning in a fresh reaction statement to the IDF preparing its long awaited offensive that it will not be a “picnic” for Israeli forces. “Our valiant resistance, led by al-Qassam Brigades, is fully prepared to defend our people,” the group said of its armed wing.

As expected, this has triggered some pushback against Netanyahu both locally and internationally. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid slammed it as irresponsible, saying that in effect the Netanyahu government has “abandoned” the captives. 

France is among the first countries Monday to warn against the Rafah attack, with French President Emmanuel Macron holding a phone call with Netanyahu. Macron stated his firm opposition to a ground offensive and encouraged a ceasefire instead. In late March, Macron had actually warned that forced transfer of civilians from Rafah could be a “war crime”.

IDF flyers dropped over Rafah on Monday:

The IDF just dropped leaflets over Rafah which holds nearly one million displaced children…

We all know this will be an absolute massacre, look at all the innocent children… this is absolutely sick..🇵🇸💔 pic.twitter.com/WceE4HTFcb

— Pelham (@Resist_05) May 6, 2024

Likely sensing that Netanyahu would not halt military plans for a Gaza invasion, it has been widely reported that for the first time the Biden administration has put a hold on a shipment of US-made ammunition which was bound for Israel.

The revelation came in a Sunday report by Axios, confirmed by two Israeli officials. “The incident raised serious concerns inside the Israeli government and sent officials scrambling to understand why the shipment was held, Israeli officials said,” Axios reported.

Campus protests are likely to grow fiercer in light of a Rafah attack. “President Biden is facing sharp criticism among Americans who oppose his support of Israel,” the report noted. “The administration in February asked Israel to provide assurances that U.S.-made weapons were being used by Israel Defense Forces in Gaza in accordance with international law. Israel provided a signed letter of assurances in March.”

Below area some further geopolitical headlines Monday morning…

* * *

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli forces are now launching raids east of Rafah, via Sky News
• Israel military says not going to put a timeframe on the Rafah evacuation and will make “operation assessments”
• Israeli military says evacuating Rafah as part of a “limited scope” operation
• The Israeli army has ordered civilians in several parts of Rafah to leave the city as it begins an invasion of the southern city, via journalist Soylu
• Israeli Defence Minister, speaking with US Defence Secretary Austin, that action in Rafah is required due to Hamas’ refusal of hostage-release proposals
• Senior Hamas Official says to Reuters that Israel’s Rafah evacuation order is a “dangerous escalation that will have consequences”; Hamas may withdraw from truce talks due to Rafah operations.
• Israel’s military said the Kerem Shalom Crossing with Gaza is now closed to aid trucks after it came under fire with mortar shelling which killed 3 Israeli soldiers and wounded 12 others from the Givanti and Nahal brigades, while Hamas claimed responsibility for the mortar attack on Kerem Shalom and said it targeted an Israeli army base, according to Reuters.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said they cannot accept Hamas’s demands for an end to the war and the withdrawal of forces from Gaza, while he noted that ending the Gaza war now would keep Hamas in power and Israel would not accept terms that amount to a capitulation with Israel to keep fighting until its war aims are achieved. It was separately reported that Israel’s Defence Minister said Hamas appears uninterested in a deal meaning strong military action in Gaza’s Rafah could happen very soon, according to Reuters.
• Israeli army is said to have started to evacuate civilians from parts of Rafah, according to Haaretz cited by Walla’s Guy Elster. Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the Israeli military asks some Rafah civilians to move out of the city, according to Bloomberg.
• Hamas’ leader said they are still keen on reaching a comprehensive agreement, while the group said the round of negotiations in Cairo has ended and the delegation will leave to consult with the group’s leadership, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Hamas agrees that Israel can commit to ending the war in the second stage of the hostage deal not the first, according to Times of Israel via social media platform X.
• CIA chief Burns is to travel to Doha for an emergency meeting with Qatar’s PM as Gaza talks are said to be ‘near to collapse’, while Qatar and the US are to exert maximum pressure on Israel and Hamas to continue negotiations, according to an official briefed on talks cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that Burns will stay in Qatar on Monday and likely travel to Israel this week to meet with Israeli PM Netanyahu, according to an Axios reporter.
• US reportedly put a hold on an ammunition shipment to Israel last week, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
• Iraqi armed factions announced they targeted an Israeli air base in Eilat with drones, according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli Cabinet decided to close Qatari TV network Al Jazeera’s operations in Gaza, according to a statement cited by Reuters. It was later reported that Israel’s communications ministry said a police raid was conducted at an Al Jazeera premises in Jerusalem.

Geopolitics:

• Russia said it took full control of Ocheretyne village in eastern Ukraine, according to the Defence Ministry, cited by Reuters.
• Russian Defence Ministry says preparations are beginning for the commencement of a missile exercises in the southern district, incl. aviation & navy forces

We reported earlier Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his armed forces to conduct tactical nuclear weapons drills in order for the country to be fully ‘ready’ to deter threats against it.

A specific date for these nuclear drills has yet to be publicized, but importantly the Kremlin has made it clear that the order is directly in response to recent threatening comments by Western powers. For example both the US and UK have lately pledged to continue arming Ukraine “for as long as it takes” – and further British officials have openly stated that Ukraine may use UK-supplied weaponry to attack inside Russia if need be. There’s also the example of France’s Macron continually talking about being open to Western boots on the ground in defense of Ukraine.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron was in Ukraine late last week, his second trip there since the war began, where he stated provocatively, “Ukraine has that right. Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself.”

Russia’s foreign ministry in response promptly summoned UK Ambassador to Moscow Nigel Casey over the remarks. “Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russian territory could be any British military facilities and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and beyond,” the ministry stated after the meeting.

Importantly, the Kremlin laid out that Cameron’s words mean he “de facto recognized his country as a party to the conflict.” This marks possibly the first time that the Russian government specifically threatened to attack British military installations and equipment within Ukraine and beyond.

The foreign ministry statement further said this constitutes “evidence of a serious escalation and confirmation of London’s increasing involvement in military operations on the side of Kiev.”

Ambassador Casey has been urged to “think about the inevitable catastrophic consequences of such hostile steps from London and to immediately refute in the most decisive and unequivocal manner the bellicose provocative statements of the head of the Foreign Office.”

French Ambassador Pierre Levy has also been summoned to the Russian foreign ministry on Monday, and the French government likely was also issued similar warnings. Again this comes as Macron is still pushing the idea of NATO troops in Ukraine, which a number of allies have rejected.

A timeline for the drills has yet to be revealed, but the Kremlin has confirmed the exercise will take place “in the near future”…

Russia will test its ability to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, the Defense Ministry announced. The drills will be conducted ‘in the near future’ and were ordered by President Vladimir Putin. pic.twitter.com/QgAza5jDib

— RT (@RT_com) May 6, 2024

Moscow in a follow-up statement said the drills will “cool down the ‘hot heads’ in Western capitals and help them understand the possible catastrophic consequences of the strategic risks they generate.”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

A disbarred, serial perjurer walks into a courtroom and asks to take an oath . . . No, seriously, this is not a joke. Michael Cohen will soon appear in a Manhattan courtroom in what is sure to be one of the most bizarre moments in legal history.

Cohen nearly comprises the prosecution’s entire case against former President Donald Trump under a criminal theory that still has many of us baffled. It is not clear what crime Trump was supposedly trying to conceal by making “hush-money” payments to former porn actress Stormy Daniels.

What is clear is that none of the witnesses called in recent weeks has had any direct involvement with Trump on the payments.

The witnesses had a lot to say about Cohen, and most of it was not good. They described an unprofessional, self-proclaimed “fix-it man” who created a shell corporation to buy out Daniels with his own money. The money was later paid back by Trump after the election, with other legal expenses.

So Cohen will now make the pitch to the jury that they should put his former client in jail for following his own legal advice.

This would be difficult even for a competent and ethical lawyer. For Cohen, it is utter insanity. But Bragg is betting on a New York jury looking no further than the identity of the defendant to convict.

Cohen has an impressive history of lies and exaggerations that may be unparalleled. Just weeks ago, another judge denounced him as a serial perjurer who was still gaming the system.

This is not the defendant, mind you, but Alvin Bragg’s star witness.

I have been an outspoken critic of Cohen going back to when he was still representing Trump. His unethical acts were matched only by his unprofessional demeanor.

In 2015, after students on the Harvard Lampoon played a harmless prank on Trump, Cohen was quoted by a student on the Lampoon staff as threatening them with expulsion.

When a journalist pursued a story Cohen did not like, he told the reporter that he should “tread very f—ing lightly because what I’m going to do to you is going to be f—ing disgusting. Do you understand me?”

It is not hard to “understand” Cohen. He has long marketed his curious skill of voluntarily saying whatever the highest bidder wants him to say.

He is a convicted perjurer who seems to lie even when the truth would do. Each time he is caught lying, he claims to be the sinner who has finally seen the light, seeking redemption.

When he was called before the House to testify against Trump soon after his plea agreement with the Justice Department (for lying), Cohen was again accused of perjury. House Oversight Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), warned Cohen repeatedly that he had better tell the truth this time. Cohen then testified that Trump wanted him to work in his administration and offered him multiple jobs, which he turned down. He also claimed, “I have never asked for, nor would I accept, a pardon from President Trump.”

Multiple sources have said that Cohen’s lawyer pressed the White House for a pardon, and that Cohen unsuccessfully sought a presidential pardon after FBI raids on his office and residences last year.

Even after being stripped of his law license and sentenced to three years in prison, Cohen continued the pattern. In 2019, Cohen failed to appear to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee, citing an inability to travel due to surgery. He was then seen partying before the hearing date with five friends.

Even while in jail, Cohen was accused of lying to a court, in violation of an order for early release due to medical problems. He was ordered back into custody after being spotted at a high-end restaurant.

But the most impressive moment came when Cohen was put back on the stand under oath and matter-of-factly claimed that he had lied in his prior hearing, when he pleaded guilty to lying.

In his 2018 guilty plea before U.S. District Judge William Henry Pauley III, Cohen admitted to this conduct under oath.

Then, when Cohen was asked by Trump’s counsel, “Did you lie to Judge Pauley when you said that you were guilty of the counts that you said under oath that you were guilty of? Did you lie to Judge Pauley?”

Cohen responded, “Yes.”  He was then again asked “So you lied when you said that you evaded taxes to a judge under oath; is that correct?” He again responded, “Yes.”

Most of us expected the Justice Department to bring new perjury charges at that point. It is rare that a defendant will actually take the stand and confess to perjury. However, Cohen was now useful again. This time, he was willing to deliver Trump. The Justice Department and Manhattan prosecutors were clearly willing to tolerate a little perjury for that prize.

Cohen’s conduct has already loomed large in the Manhattan proceedings. When Keith Davidson took the stand — the attorney who represented both Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal — he recounted how Cohen was furious about not being offered a job in the White House. That directly contradicts Cohen’s congressional testimony. Davidson said that Cohen believed he might be named attorney general.

The account, if true, shows that Cohen is not only unethical, but also delusional. Cohen was found incapable of being an attorney, let alone an attorney general.

As prosecutors set the table for the grand arrival of their star witness, the testimony only got worse. David Pecker, the former owner of the National Enquirer, said charitably that Cohen was “prone to exaggeration.”

Davidson described Cohen’s profane and unprofessional conduct, stating that “the moral of the story is nobody wanted to talk to Cohen.” That may be the first time the word “moral” was used in the same line with Cohen.

Former Trump associate Hope Hicks mocked Cohen on the stand. She said that he constantly tried to insinuate himself into the campaign, without success, and that he “used to like to call himself Mister Fix It, but it was only because he first broke it.”

Mind you, these were his fellow prosecution witnesses, not the defense.

These witnesses also contradicted the basis for the prosecution. Pecker said that he killed stories for various celebrities for years, and that he did so for Trump for over a decade before he ran for office. Davidson testified that he did not consider the deal to be “hush money” but simply “consideration” to kill bad press.

Hicks testified that she believed Trump wanted to kill the stories in significant part to protect his family from embarrassment.

Cohen could not even maintain a consistent position during the trial. Many of us have denounced the gag order on Trump that prevents him from responding to Cohen’s unrelenting attacks in the media. Cohen then promised to stop any further comments. That promise may have set a record for Cohen. He kept it for roughly three days before being accused of trolling for dollars on social media by attacking Trump.

District Attorney Bragg will now call this disbarred, serial perjurer to make the case against a former president.

Under New York law, the oath administered by the court is supposed “to awaken the conscience and impress the mind of the witness in accordance with that witness’s religious or ethical beliefs.”

Before the bailiff administers the oath to Cohen, Judge Juan Merchan may have to warn spectators in the courtroom not to laugh. For anyone familiar with Cohen, it will sound like the ultimate punchline to a bad joke.

In the span of two months, two Boeing whistleblowers have died under mysterious circumstances.

The first, 62-year-old John Barnett, died from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound on March 9. He was found dead in his Dodge Ram truck holding a silver pistol in his hand in the parking lot of a South Carolina hotel after he failed to show up for the second half of his testimony for a lawsuit against the company. Barnett, who retired in 2017, warned that Boeing had cut corners to speed its 787 Dreamliners into service. He gave numerous interviews in which he described how he lodged internal complaints about serious security flaws. 

The second, 45-year-old Joshua Dean, a former Spirit AeroSystems quality auditor, died last Tuesday from a fast-growing infection. In 2022 he raised the alarm over improperly drilled bulkhead holes for the 737 MAX, and was fired less than a year later.

“I think they were sending out a message to anybody else,” Dean told NPR, adding “If you are too loud, we will silence you.“

Now, Boeing faces 10 more whistleblowers – and attorneys for the deceased men are hoping that the deaths don’t spook the rest away, the NY Post reports.

“These men were heroes. So are all the whistleblowers. They loved the company and wanted to help the company do better,” attorney Brian Knowles – who represented both Barnett and Dean, told the Post. “They didn’t speak out to be aggravating or for fame. They’re raising concerns because people’s lives are at stake.”

According to Knowles, “I knew John Barnett for seven years and never saw anything that would indicate he would take his own life,” but added “Then again, I’ve never dealt with someone who did (commit suicide). So maybe you don’t see the signs. I don’t know.”

Knowles pointed out that the Charleston, SC, police are still wrapping up their investigation of Barnett’s death — and that it may take some weeks for tests to reveal more about Dean’s passing.

“It’s a stunning loss,” Spirit AeroSystems spokesman Joe Buccino said of Dean. (The company is not to be confused with Spirit Airlines.) “Our focus here has been on his loved ones.”

Buccino insisted that Spirit “encourages” employees to come forth with their concerns and that they are then “cloaked under protection.” -NY Post

And while Boeing says they also “encourage” employees to speak up, that’s news to other Boeing whistleblowers who say they’ve either face retaliation or been ignored.

For example, Ed Pierson, 61, a former senior manager at Boeing’s Renton, Washington 737 factory, left Boeing six years ago and created the Foundation for Aviation Safety – after trying in vain to get Boeing execs to shut down production of the plane prior to two 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019 which left 346 people dead.

“It’s an unstable company right now from the top to the bottom,” Pierson told the Post. “Senior corporate leadership is so fixated on not admitting the truth that they can’t admit anything.”

Last month, Pierson told Congress about what he characterized as a “criminal cover-up” by Boeing bosses.

“Boeing is an American icon,” Pierson said. “This company is incredibly important to our country, both economically and in terms of national security with its commercial aviation side and its military defense work. But it doesn’t work when you have the wrong people driving the bus.”

Following Barnett’s death, Boeing employees told The Post that he had made “powerful enemies,” and one said that they were skeptical that it was a suicide.

This guy is about to become Boeing’s highest-paid employee. https://t.co/QcUPFz0D1h pic.twitter.com/qoOEvndPHe

— Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) May 5, 2024

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has warned that French President Emmanuel Macron’s threat to send NATO troops to Ukraine risks sparking World War III.

In an interview with The Economist last week, Macron said the question of sending western troops to Ukraine would “legitimately” arise if Russia broke through the Ukrainian front lines and Kyiv made such a request.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted by describing Macron’s statements as “very dangerous.”

Now Hungarian diplomat Peter Szijjarto warns that the French leader’s comments represent a stunning escalation.

“If a NATO member commits ground troops, it will be a direct NATO-Russia confrontation and it will then be World War Three,” said Szijjarto.

He also drew attention to the fact that such a conflict would likely escalate into nuclear confrontation.

“Let’s be clear: if there is a nuclear war, everything and everyone will be lost. If there is a nuclear war, everyone will die and everything will be destroyed, which no one with any common sense can wish for,” said Szijjarto.

Meanwhile, senior Italian government officials have joined the growing number of prominent voices condemning Macron over his comments.

“Sending Italian soldiers to fight outside the EU borders? Follow the obsessions of some dangerous and desperate European leader like Macron? No thanks, never in the name of the League,” remarked Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto also told the Corriere della Sera newspaper, “I don’t judge a president of a friendly country like France, but I don’t understand the purpose and usefulness of these declarations, which objectively raise tensions.”

As we previously highlighted, the former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command General Sir Richard Barrons said Ukraine is at “serious risk” of having to admit defeat to Russia this year.

Barrons said that pessimism is starting to set in amongst the population, generating a general malaise and a feeling that Ukraine “can’t win.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Former President Donald Trump has been found in contempt of court for a second time by a New York judge overseeing his hush-money trial.

On Monday, judge Juan Merchan said that Trump had violated a gag order with additional social media posts about witnesses in the case, and will consider jail if there are additional violations.

Merchan:

“The last thing that I want to do is to put you in jail,” calling it a last resort.

The judge notes that Trump is a former president and possibly a future one.

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) May 6, 2024

“It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent,” said Merchan. “Mr. Trump, I want you to understand the last thing I want to do is put you in jail.”

“The magnitude of such a decision is not lost on me, but at the end of the day, I have a job to do.”

Last week, Merchan fined Trump $9,000 and held the former president in criminal contempt of court for violating the gag order nine times.

Columbia University announced Monday that it’s canceling its two main 2024 commencement ceremonies on May 15, and will instead hold “smaller-scale, school-based celebrations,” according to officials.

The move comes after weeks of pro-Palestinian protesters had to be forcibly removed and suspended after they refused to leave their encampment which sprouted on campus April 17, when around 50 tents were pitched by students demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. The students also insist that the university divest from companies they say could be profiting from war. Dozens of faculty members came out in support.

NOW: Columbia University faculty link arms and form a wall in front of the entrance to the ‘Gaza Solidarity Encampment’ as hundreds of students encircle the both lawns

Students remaining in the encampment were told they could face disciplinary action after 2PM pic.twitter.com/C1XRgHzs8b

— katie smith (@probablyreadit) April 29, 2024

According to NBC News, the decision was made over security concerns, after administrators at Ivy League school met with student leaders following a NYPD raid on Hamilton Hall, after student protesters broke in, barricaded themselves inside, and wrecked the place.

Taking over Hamilton Hall as done in 1968, Columbia students unfurl a banner that reads “Hind’s Hall,” in reference to Hind Rajab, a six-year-old girl killed by Israeli forces.
Hundreds of students cheer as the banner is revealed, erupting into chants to “Free Palestine.” pic.twitter.com/Oi8WgdZmqf

— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) April 30, 2024

Destruction inside Hamilton Hall at Columbia University, after police cleared out protesters.

They were all released and all charges dropped so nobody will be held accountable and the destruction will continue pic.twitter.com/UM5tM5gtsF

— Rob (@_ROB_29) May 2, 2024

“Our students emphasized that these smaller-scale, school-based celebrations are most meaningful to them and their families,” the university said Monday. “They are eager to cross the stage to applause and family pride and hear from their school’s invited guest speakers. As a result, we will focus our resources on those school ceremonies and on keeping them safe, respectful, and running smoothly.”

Now, students will be “honored individually alongside their peers” in the smaller ceremonies, called “Class Days.”

The “Class Days” and other school ceremonies which were originally scheduled at the South Lawn of Morningside campus have also been relocated to the Columbia Baker Athletics Complex.

“These past few weeks have been incredibly difficult for our community. Just as we are focused on making our graduation experience truly special, we continue to solicit student feedback and are looking at the possibility of a festive event on May 15 to take the place of the large, formal ceremony,” said school officials.

“We are eager to all come together for our graduates and celebrate our fellow Columbians as they, and we, look ahead to the future.”

Now, on May 15, graduation ceremonies will take place at different times and different locations for the the journalism school, college of physicians and surgeons, Barnard College, and the school of arts. Other school-based ceremonies will occur throughout next week as well.

The University Of Southern California was the first known major university to cancel a graduation ceremony over the nationwide demonstrations.

So all that hard work for this, kids... and on the heels of the pandemic. Normal life eludes once again.

For all its positives, bitcoin is perhaps the only security that prices in the same news over, and over, and over again (especially when the news is bad).

We saw this last month when bitcoin tumbled repeatedly after every single fake attack in the fake “Iran-Israel war”, as if it was pricing nuclear Armageddon over and over instead of actually reading between the lines of the staged theater between the two middle-eastern states. It eventually rebounded and recouped most losses but not before finding something else to be just as shocked over, even though this too is not news at all.

Moments ago, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies dumped sharply when Bloomberg reported that Ken Griffen’s favorite retail frontrunning exchange, Robinhood, has received a Wells Notice, i.e., it has been formally warned by regulators that it may face an enforcement action tied to its cryptocurrency dealings.

The so-called Wells notice – which gives a company time to rebut the agency’s allegations and doesn’t necessarily indicate an enforcement action will follow – from the SEC concerns Robinhood Crypto and its cryptocurrency listings, custody of cryptocurrencies and platform operations, the company said in a regulatory filing Monday.

The agency’s staff told Robinhood that it made a “preliminary determination” to recommend that the SEC file an enforcement action.

The result could be an injunction, a cease-and-desist order, disgorgement and other penalties or limits on activities, according to the filing. The company was previously subpoenaed and has cooperated with the investigation, Robinhood said.  

Dan Gallagher, chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer at Robinhood Markets wrote in a May 6 blog post:

“After years of good faith attempts to work with the SEC for regulatory clarity including our well-known attempt to ‘come in and register,’ we are disappointed that the agency has decided to issue a Wells Notice related to our U.S. crypto business.”

Gallagher added that Robinhood doesn’t see any of its listed assets as securities:

“We firmly believe that the assets listed on our platform are not securities and we look forward to engaging with the SEC to make clear just how weak any case against Robinhood Crypto would be on both the facts and the law.”

Of course, anyone with a room-temperature IQ would have been able to anticipate this turn, which comes about a year after the SEC served Coinbase with an identical Wells Notice, and which comes just days before the SEC has to rule – negatively, at least until the courts force it to reverse its decision – on whether to greenlight an Ethereum ETF, something which Liz Warren’s pocket fascist enforcer, Gary Gensler, has sworn he will not allow simply because it goes against the interests of Warren’s biggest backers. To be sure, eventually the courts will greenlight an ETH ETF, just as Larry Fink requires in order to complete his vision of tokenization as “the next generation for markets” but not before some token resistance from the anti-crypto Democrats in Congress.

And while we wait, bitcoin and ETH both dumped on the news – as of course they always do because the algos that trade them have a 10 millisecond attention span and can’t be bothered to even google that what they are reacting to has been widely priced in countless times in the past.

It goes without saying that the rebound is just a formality at this point as the algos that sold just minutes ago on the Wells Notice “news” forget why they sold, and being a momentum ignition program higher, but the bigger question is whether the end of the anti-cyrpto Biden admin in early November will be the biggest pro-bitcoin catalyst in recent history, far bigger even than the halving.

Authored by Ven Ram, Bloomberg cross-asset strategist,

US stocks are seeing no evil and certainly hearing none, but Berkshire Hathaway’s ever-growing cash pile should hold a tacit warning for those who are overexuberant.

Berkshire’s war chest surged to a record $189 billion at the end of the first quarter, and Chair Warren Buffett told shareholders over the weekend that he expects the pile will rise to $200 billion soon:

“We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money.”

Wall Street, of course, equates higher return with higher risk, but here is one of the best investors of all time decrying the very notion that one needs to do something egregiously risky to earn the additional dollar of return over and above what is available to passive investors who buy the entire market.

Stocks rallied on Friday after the markets interpreted the April non-farm payrolls data as providing just the right backdrop for the Federal Reserve to cut rates eventually. Considering that since of the end of 2022 alone, the S&P 500 has surged about 33% and the Nasdaq almost 50%, one would think that all the good news out there and more is already reflected in their price tag.

Over the long term, stocks can’t yield returns in excess of corporate earnings and economic growth, but investors have been in no mood to listen — and they may yet stay complacent in the short term. The S&P 500 now promises an earnings yield of less than 5%, well below the historical average. The Nasdaq 100 is, of course, trading even loftier, offering a prospective earnings yield of less than 4%.

At the moment, investors are paying a lot for stocks on the premise of promise. That is what Buffett may characterize as too much risk.

The last several hours have seen a significant escalation of the situation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, sending Western diplomats scrambling and resulting in new threats and counterthreats between Hamas and Israeli leaders.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have urged many thousands of Palestinian civilians to urgently evacuate ahead of an impending ground offensive. In the overnight hours Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Israel now believes it has no choice but the carry on with the major ground operation, despite it having been stalled for months.

Gallant cited that a Hamas rocket attack was carried out from Rafah, killing four Israeli soldiers. Airstrikes in eastern Rafah have already begun, and residents and refugees there are being dropped flyers – and homes are also reportedly receiving urgent messages – telling them to evacuate immediately.

An expanded humanitarian zone is being set up by the IDF in the vicinity of the al-Mawasi and Khan Younis areas of southern Gaza.

“Driving through Rafah, the tension was palpable with people evacuating as rapidly as they could,” a British humanitarian health workers was cited by Al Jazeera as saying.

The IDF is calling this a “limited scope operation” – with army spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani describing that for now 100,000 people were being ordered to move to the humanitarian zone. The army has further issued a map of the evacuation area and ‘safe zones’.

A military statement said that “in accordance with the approval of the political echelon, the IDF calls on the population, which is under the control of Hamas, to temporarily evacuate from the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah to the expanded humanitarian zone.”

“This matter will progress gradually, according to an ongoing assessment of the situation,” it added. “The IDF will continue to pursue Hamas everywhere in Gaza until all the hostages that they’re holding in captivity are back home.”

As for the tens of thousands of warning flyers currently being dropped, one reads: “Anyone found near (militant) organizations endangers themselves and their family members. For your safety, the (army) urges you to evacuate immediately to the expanded humanitarian area.”

And the flyers further stipulate: “It is prohibited to come near to the eastern and southern security fences.” Humanitarian aid organizations, including the UN and some Western governments have warned that an all-out assault on Rafah, which has swelled during the war to some 1.5 million people (mostly internally displaced refugees), will be a humanitarian catastrophe.

There are also fears that at a moment CIA director William Burns is in the region trying to salvage negotiations toward reaching a deal for the return of hostages, any hope for a truce will dashed by the Rafah operation.

But so far, Hamas as indicated it is still committed to the talks. “We will continue the negotiations positively and with an open heart,” Hamas spokesman Abdul Latif al-Qanou told AFP. He said an agreement is still needed “for a permanent ceasefire and the fulfilment of the demands of our people.”

But Prime Minister Netanyahu has not backed off his ultimate aim of seeing the total eradication of Hamas complete, which requires going after the remaining battalions in Rafah city. According to Israeli media:

Israeli officials have said the terror group has six remaining battalions in the Gaza Strip, four of them in Rafah: Yabna (South), Shaboura (North), Tel Sultan (West) and East Rafah. Two more Hamas battalions remain in central Gaza, in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah camps.

Hamas is meanwhile warning in a fresh reaction statement to the IDF preparing its long awaited offensive that it will not be a “picnic” for Israeli forces. “Our valiant resistance, led by al-Qassam Brigades, is fully prepared to defend our people,” the group said of its armed wing.

As expected, this has triggered some pushback against Netanyahu both locally and internationally. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid slammed it as irresponsible, saying that in effect the Netanyahu government has “abandoned” the captives. 

France is among the first countries Monday to warn against the Rafah attack, with French President Emmanuel Macron holding a phone call with Netanyahu. Macron stated his firm opposition to a ground offensive and encouraged a ceasefire instead. In late March, Macron had actually warned that forced transfer of civilians from Rafah could be a “war crime”.

IDF flyers dropped over Rafah on Monday:

The IDF just dropped leaflets over Rafah which holds nearly one million displaced children…

We all know this will be an absolute massacre, look at all the innocent children… this is absolutely sick..🇵🇸💔 pic.twitter.com/WceE4HTFcb

— Pelham (@Resist_05) May 6, 2024

Likely sensing that Netanyahu would not halt military plans for a Gaza invasion, it has been widely reported that for the first time the Biden administration has put a hold on a shipment of US-made ammunition which was bound for Israel.

The revelation came in a Sunday report by Axios, confirmed by two Israeli officials. “The incident raised serious concerns inside the Israeli government and sent officials scrambling to understand why the shipment was held, Israeli officials said,” Axios reported.

Campus protests are likely to grow fiercer in light of a Rafah attack. “President Biden is facing sharp criticism among Americans who oppose his support of Israel,” the report noted. “The administration in February asked Israel to provide assurances that U.S.-made weapons were being used by Israel Defense Forces in Gaza in accordance with international law. Israel provided a signed letter of assurances in March.”

Below area some further geopolitical headlines Monday morning…

* * *

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli forces are now launching raids east of Rafah, via Sky News
• Israel military says not going to put a timeframe on the Rafah evacuation and will make “operation assessments”
• Israeli military says evacuating Rafah as part of a “limited scope” operation
• The Israeli army has ordered civilians in several parts of Rafah to leave the city as it begins an invasion of the southern city, via journalist Soylu
• Israeli Defence Minister, speaking with US Defence Secretary Austin, that action in Rafah is required due to Hamas’ refusal of hostage-release proposals
• Senior Hamas Official says to Reuters that Israel’s Rafah evacuation order is a “dangerous escalation that will have consequences”; Hamas may withdraw from truce talks due to Rafah operations.
• Israel’s military said the Kerem Shalom Crossing with Gaza is now closed to aid trucks after it came under fire with mortar shelling which killed 3 Israeli soldiers and wounded 12 others from the Givanti and Nahal brigades, while Hamas claimed responsibility for the mortar attack on Kerem Shalom and said it targeted an Israeli army base, according to Reuters.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said they cannot accept Hamas’s demands for an end to the war and the withdrawal of forces from Gaza, while he noted that ending the Gaza war now would keep Hamas in power and Israel would not accept terms that amount to a capitulation with Israel to keep fighting until its war aims are achieved. It was separately reported that Israel’s Defence Minister said Hamas appears uninterested in a deal meaning strong military action in Gaza’s Rafah could happen very soon, according to Reuters.
• Israeli army is said to have started to evacuate civilians from parts of Rafah, according to Haaretz cited by Walla’s Guy Elster. Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the Israeli military asks some Rafah civilians to move out of the city, according to Bloomberg.
• Hamas’ leader said they are still keen on reaching a comprehensive agreement, while the group said the round of negotiations in Cairo has ended and the delegation will leave to consult with the group’s leadership, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Hamas agrees that Israel can commit to ending the war in the second stage of the hostage deal not the first, according to Times of Israel via social media platform X.
• CIA chief Burns is to travel to Doha for an emergency meeting with Qatar’s PM as Gaza talks are said to be ‘near to collapse’, while Qatar and the US are to exert maximum pressure on Israel and Hamas to continue negotiations, according to an official briefed on talks cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that Burns will stay in Qatar on Monday and likely travel to Israel this week to meet with Israeli PM Netanyahu, according to an Axios reporter.
• US reportedly put a hold on an ammunition shipment to Israel last week, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
• Iraqi armed factions announced they targeted an Israeli air base in Eilat with drones, according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli Cabinet decided to close Qatari TV network Al Jazeera’s operations in Gaza, according to a statement cited by Reuters. It was later reported that Israel’s communications ministry said a police raid was conducted at an Al Jazeera premises in Jerusalem.

Geopolitics:

• Russia said it took full control of Ocheretyne village in eastern Ukraine, according to the Defence Ministry, cited by Reuters.
• Russian Defence Ministry says preparations are beginning for the commencement of a missile exercises in the southern district, incl. aviation & navy forces