Following on the heels of Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday, which was hawkish yet which also sent yields to multi-year highs thus refuting claims the Fed Chair regained some credibility, the data docket picks up this week with the main event being Friday’s August employment report. Regarding Warsh, he delivered a crisp message to market participants last Friday that resolved much of the confusion from his July post-meeting press conference. Indeed, Warsh went one step further and provided his own views on recent data trends. On inflation Warsh stated, “And while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” It will be interesting to see if Governor Waller reinforces this message when he takes part in a moderated discussion on inflation this Thursday at Reuter’s Next conference.

On the labor market, Warsh noted that “When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.” In short, Warsh delivered a message that was bullish on the economy and hawkish on inflation, reinforcing our longstanding view that the Fed will hike rates at the September 16 FOMC meeting.   

Market participants will no doubt be trading upcoming data within the context of the views Warsh laid out last Friday. Though economists expect headline nonfarm payrolls to rebound (+65k forecast vs. -23k previously) due to payback from state and local education hiring, the private payroll forecast is somewhat more muted (+25k vs. +30k). Meanwhile, Bloomberg economists say there is a “decent chance” of a second consecutive negative print… and the Fed has never hiked after two negative prints.

I think next week’s payrolls print will disappoint, and has decent (though not our baseline) chance of being negative.

Supposed it is a negative print. There is no modern Fed era precedent of Fed hiking after two negative payrolls prints.

Still 50-50?

— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) August 29, 2026

That said, with average hourly earnings (+0.4% vs. +0.1%) also expected to rebound following some unusually soft prints in specific sectors last month, the year-over-year growth rate of the DB payroll proxy for nominal income should remain around 4.0%. To be sure, Fed officials are likely to focus greater attention on the unemployment rate, which economists expect will remain unchanged at 4.1%, though there is some risk that it rounds up to 4.2%. However, even if the unemployment rate ticks up a tenth, it is unlikely to result in the Fed reappraising its labor market view, particularly given as Chair Warsh noted “Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades.”

As DB notes in its weekly preview, there are a few data points ahead of Friday’s employment report print that could on the margin impact sentiment heading into the print. While Tuesday’s JOLTS data are somewhat dated given that they correspond to July, they will nonetheless provide the latest readings on the hiring, layoffs and quits rates. Broadly speaking, most of these rates are expected to remain unchanged from recent tight ranges – still painting the picture of a “low hiring / low firing” labor market environment that we’ve been accustomed to for the past three years. Wednesday’s ADP private employment survey (+44k exp) should reinforce the picture of a stable labor market, albeit at depressed levels of gains partly due to low labor supply growth that Chair Warsh mentioned. Our ADP forecast is consistent with the latest reading for their weekly series.

Lastly, Tuesday’s manufacturing ISM (55.8 vs. 55.6) and Thursday’s services ISM (54.1 vs. 54.1), while not directly impacting forecasters’ payroll expectations, will nevertheless provide a more forward-looking view from businesses on hiring trends. Note that while the employment component of the manufacturing survey has been trending up over the last three months, the employment component of the services series has been moving in the opposite direction and remains below 50.

In summary, should this week’s labor market data come in close to expectations, it will reinforce monetary policymakers’ view of a stable labor market that is consistent with their maximum employment mandate. As Chair Warsh emphasized “Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.” As we noted in our Jackson Hole recap note, the specificity of Warsh’s comments and the uniformity of the color in a hawkish direction, has changed the setup for the September FOMC meeting. As long as incoming data do not surprise meaningfully to do the downside, Warsh’s speech has established a rate hike as the most likely policy outcome next month.

Here is a day by day preview courtesy of Rabobank

• Monday: sees German inflation numbers for August, starting with the regional states and followed later that day by the first estimate for the nationwide and harmonised gauge. Last week, data from France, Belgium and Spain already indicated that the rebound in energy prices would push inflation higher again following its easing trend since May. We expect the same in Germany. In the US, the main figure to watch is the (second-tier) Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity survey for August.
• Tuesday: German retail sales (July), Italian GDP details (Q2) and UK money supply and credit (July) all feature in the morning session, but the key figures to watch are Eurozone headline and core inflation for August. In particular, a renewed rise in core inflation (not our base case, but a possibility) could trigger further rate hike expectations beyond the September meeting. No change in the Eurozone unemployment rate for July would only underscore those risks. In the US, we have the JOLTS (July) labor-market flows data. Normally not a market mover, it could nevertheless shed more light on the recent slowdown in job growth. Meanwhile, only a small fall in the US ISM manufacturing survey for August (as per the consensus) could be interpreted by the market as a sign that US, as well as global, manufacturing activity is recovering despite ongoing concerns over tensions in the Middle East.
• Wednesday: Australia releases its Q2 GDP numbers. Consensus expects quarterly growth to match Q1 at 0.3%. The Fed also releases its Beige Book, but Wednesday’s key event is likely to be the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, which investors may suddenly see in a different light since the eruption of the US-Canadian trade war. There are no signs that negotiations will resume anytime soon.
• Thursday: Australia releases July trade balance figures, while the US calendar includes the July trade balance and August ISM services survey. Final S&P Global PMI releases and country extensions are also due, including for Spain and Italy, alongside Eurozone PPI and German factory orders for July.
• Friday: The US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures are the highlight of the day. The street forecasts net job creation of 55,000 in August, following an unexpected dip in July. Although the jobs report is always a market mover, Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole suggest the Fed’s focus is now on the near-term path for inflation rather than the labour market. Eurozone retail sales for July are expected to recover from a dip in June, but the underlying trend remains lacklustre as households face slowing real wage growth. The ECB’s Lane speaks in Dublin, but since –by then– the ECB’s pre-rate decision quiet period has commenced, he may not address current policy issues. 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week including events with Governor Barr on Tuesday and Governor Waller on Thursday. 

Monday, August 31 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, September 1 

• 09:05 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak about the economic outlook and financial inclusion at the Second Chance Lending Forum in Washington DC. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August final (consensus 53.3, last 53.2)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, August (GS 56.0, consensus 55.2, last 55.6): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index edged slightly higher to 56.0 in August, reflecting a modest improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 0.3pt to 56.3 in August—and a slight tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, July (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, July (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,313k, last 7,359k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 7.3mn in July based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.

Wednesday, September 2 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, August (GS +55k, consensus +47k, last +44k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.3%)
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige Book, September meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the July FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in all but one Federal Reserve Districts and that consumer spending edged up as higher prices, particularly for fuel, dampened sales in other categories. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East, the evolution of labor demand, and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, September 3 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$91.1bn, consensus -$90.0bn, last -$73.3bn)
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 final (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%); Unit labor costs, Q2 final (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.3%): We estimate that nonfarm productivity growth will be unrevised at +1.4% quarterly annualized in the second release for 2026Q2. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.1%, a much stronger pace than the 1.6% average pace of the prior cycle. We estimate that unit labor costs—compensation divided by output—will be revised down by 0.2pp to +1.1%.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 29 (GS 205k, consensus 205k, last 203k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 22 (consensus 1,787k, last 1,778k)
• 08:30 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak in a moderated conversation at the Reuters Next event about the outlook for inflation, the U.S. economy more broadly, and the Fed’s policy response;  
• S&P Global US services PMI, August final (consensus 56.8, last 56.8); 10:00 AM ISM services index, August (GS 54.1, consensus 54.1, last 54.1)  We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 54.1 in August, reflecting a decline in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.1pt to 53.5) but a tailwind from potential residual seasonality.
• 03:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give pre-recorded opening remarks at an event called Connecting Communities: When Every Dollar Counts: Worker Perspectives on the Economy. On August 27, Hammack said, “I think it’s appropriate for us to put some restraint there to help bring inflation back down to target… The longer inflation stays above our objective, the harder it will be for us to bring it back down.”

Friday, September 4 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +40k, consensus +55k, last -23k); Private payroll employment, August (GS +40k, consensus +53k, last +30k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 40k in August, reflecting a softer signal from alternative data. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias—particularly in initial prints—over the last decade. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, reflecting positive calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in August, reflecting a stabilization in continuing claims.

Source: Rabobank, DB, Goldman

The US Treasury Department plans to roll out new secondary sanctions every week to intensify economic pressure on Iran, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed Sunday.

“You’re going to see a lot more of these every week,” Bessent said ahead of a meeting of Group of 20 (G20) financial leaders in Asheville, North Carolina, confirming that announcements will come on a weekly basis.

The warning and threat follows on the heels of the US having sanctioned a couple UAE branches of a major Egyptian bank last week, after which some pundits called out the weakness and flimsiness of the action.

Treasury named the UAE branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr, alleging financial ties to Iran and money laundering, cutting them off from the US financial system for obtaining dollars.

However, Banque Misr itself – which is Egypt’s second largest financial institution – is at the moment not facing any direct Washington punitive measures. Treasury had made clear the new measures wouldn’t apply to “Banque Misr operations in any other country.“

What’s more is that even the targeted UAE branches of the Egyptian institution appear to have an appeals window of sorts, and may be given a chance to rectify the matter over a period of 30 days. No other UAE bank has come under the same threats so far.

According to Al Jazeera:

Banque Misr UAE’s customers include “front companies used by Iran’s Ministry of Defence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to evade US sanctions, as well as to launder money on behalf of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,” the Treasury said.

The US government’s proposed punishment is expected to come into effect in 30 days after a public comment period, and will not impact any other branches of the bank.

So much for ‘Economic D-Day’…

And recall this scene from just a week ago:

Reporter: You describe this as an economic D-Day, but D-Day wasn’t a threat of invasion, and the U.S. didn’t give a timeline to Germany. Why not impose the sanctions today?

Bessent: Well, we are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set, and give people a cure period, but they should know that will move very quickly and we are serious. Secondary sanctions are a very powerful tool.

Still, Bessent continues to talk tough, telling the AP in a Sunday interview, “This is going to be financial violence if we have to.“

“We are showing people that we know who you are, you know who you are, and this has got to stop,” he added.

Bessent further previewed his plan to reinforce the message to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors this week, stressing: “There can be no leakage. You’re either with us, or you’re with the Iranians.”

Treasury is trying to thread an untenable needle. It wants to look like it’s acting forcefully following its D-Day announcement, but has limited options without, as Secretary Bessent said, blowing up the global financial system. They also appear to want to avoid UAE banks for now

— Timothy E Kaldas (@tekaldas) August 31, 2026

Notably, the Trump admin has been relatively silent on whether it intends to target Chinese entities, with Beijing having long been in effect an Iranian economic “lifeline”.

The whole ‘weekly’ secondary sanctions rollout seems intended to just keep kicking the can down the road, as the US administration appears still in frantic search of a strategy for dealing with a continually defiant Iran. The endgame remains perfectly unclear.

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Icelanders voted “no” to reopening EU membership talks in a referendum over the weekend, albeit by the fairly narrow margin of 2.8 percentage points. Against a backdrop of uncertainty over global trade and geopolitical ructions – including the Greenland crisis at the turn of the year – one intriguing conclusion is that the vote appears to have been driven by economic interests rather than security concerns. Iceland has no military and relies on its NATO allies for defense. Yet it already enjoys good trade relations with the EU, while some voters feared that membership would leave its large fishing industry vulnerable to EU policies. At the same time, Europe’s recent inability to project geopolitical power convincingly and collectively probably did not help sway voters towards the “yes” camp. In a response, PM Frostadóttir said that negotiations with the EU would not continue and that “[…] something big has to change in the next 24 months for this [EU membership] to be at the top of the agenda.” Perhaps she had an ‘Iceland crisis’ in mind?

Staying with European politics, the latest Elabe presidential poll – conducted on 29-30 August 2026 for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche – unsurprisingly shows a highly fragmented French political landscape with one dominant feature: Marine Le Pen is the clear front-runner for the 2027 presidential election. Across the scenarios tested, Le Pen (RN) attracts 34% to 35.5% of first-round voting intentions, putting her well ahead of every rival. The contest for second place is much tighter. Édouard Philippe currently appears best placed, polling at around 47.5% against 52.5% for Le Pen. The poll also suggests that Mélenchon has lost momentum and may find it harder to reach the run-off, while social-democratic candidate Glucksman appears to be consolidating support on the centre-left. Most strikingly, Le Pen wins every run-off tested by Elabe: she is the overwhelming favorite to reach the second round and, on current projections, to win the presidency.

For investors worried about fiscal profligacy under a Mélenchon presidency, these probabilities – though they could still shift considerably with more than seven months to go – may offer some comfort. For the EU, however, a Le Pen presidency would still create a more difficult environment. Although she no longer openly advocates leaving the euro or holding a referendum on EU membership, she continues to seek a reduction in EU powers over areas including immigration, budgetary decisions, trade policy, and judicial and constitutional sovereignty. The current discussion over an expansion of the EU budget for 2028-2034 to almost €2 trillion – which requires unanimity – could become a flashpoint should discussions be delayed into 2027.  

Le Pen’s stance broadly resembles the approach of parties such as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy: not seeking to leave the EU, but deeply sceptical of further integration. Meloni has pursued that strategy with surprising success in Italy (and without major consequences for the EU), but France’s fiscal position is considerably more fragile. Could something big still change the polls?

Turning to financial markets, Friday certainly delivered something big. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appeared to rebuild some of his credibility as an inflation fighter in his first speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, stressing that the Federal Reserve still has “work to do” to return inflation to its 2% target. The message marked an important shift from the communication strategy he had followed since taking office. After the 17 June FOMC meeting, the US yield curve steepened and Treasury term premia rose noticeably as investors concluded that Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation was not being matched by policy action.

Part of that unease reflected Warsh’s outspoken opposition to forward guidance. In his view, excessive guidance encourages investors to pay less attention to incoming data and underlying economic trends, while constraining the central bank’s policy flexibility. Markets, however, read the combination of policy inaction and limited communication as a sign that Warsh was content to let higher market interest rates do part of the Fed’s work by tightening financial conditions and containing inflation.

At Jackson Hole, Warsh sought to dispel that impression without abandoning his broader philosophy – or at least that is our reading. He emphasised that “price stability does not emerge on its own, nor does inflation automatically return to target. It is the Fed’s responsibility to deliver price stability.” More importantly, for the first time since becoming Chair, he explicitly expressed dissatisfaction with recent inflation developments and signalled that he was open to further rate hikes unless underlying inflation began to improve convincingly. As he put it: “We must be convinced that underlying inflation is moving toward our target clearly and at a sufficient pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do.”

Markets accordingly priced a greater probability of additional rate increases. Yet longer-dated Treasury yields fell, suggesting that investors saw Warsh’s remarks as reducing policy uncertainty and reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to restore price stability. Put differently, the reaction combined a slightly more hawkish near-term policy outlook with lower longer-term inflation and policy-risk premia.

So Warsh’s prepared remarks seemed designed to lift rate-hike expectations, rebalance the September debate towards the hawks and rebuild his inflation-fighting credibility after July’s “all talk, no action” criticism. Yet this creates a difficult balancing act, as the White House may oppose a hike so close to November’s midterms. On balance, we still think the FOMC is more likely to remain on hold for the rest of the year, but the upside risks to our forecasts have clearly rebounded, as our US Strategist and Fed watcher Philip Marey writes here.

Even so, Warsh delivered an important signal: the Fed is not relying on tighter financial conditions alone and remains willing to tighten further if underlying inflation stalls. The next round of data – especially the 4 September employment report and 11 September CPI – could therefore prove crucial for the Committee’s swing voters.

On inflation, medium- to longer-term gauges such as 5y/5y inflation swap forwards remain broadly consistent with central-bank policy targets – an observation also highlighted by Stephen Miran in a recent FT opinion piece. That is true in both the US and Europe. Yet these measures may not fully capture the upside risks, particularly as energy prices have continued to climb in recent weeks. Over the weekend, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in more than a month, as Iran launched a missile-and-drone attack on US air bases in Jordan early Monday in response to an American airstrike on Iranian rocket launchers on Sunday.

The weakening correlation between energy prices and inflation swaps could be reassuring: markets may simply trust central banks to keep long-run inflation anchored. But it could also indicate that investors view long-term inflation mainly through the lens of policy credibility and structural regime risks, such as a return of fiscal dominance. Such regimes rarely change gradually; they tend to shift suddenly. And that would take something big.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that NBC News’s “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker will be reported to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

Welker had “just stated that Donald Trump has ‘mixed results’ on his Endorsements of Candidates, when the recent WINS of Darline Graham and Mike Mazzei, stand at 100 percent for the U.S. Senate, and 98 percent for the U.S. House, recently and over the longterm,” the president wrote on Truth Social.

Trump added: “How can anyone be allowed to say this, working for freely given Public Airwaves? Results are attached. Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment.”

According to a transcript of “Meet the Press,” Welker did not make the comment about “mixed results” on Sunday’s program. Trump did not say in his social media post where he heard the comment.

Welker made the comment during a recent appearance on the NBC 4 Washington local affiliate station, reported Mediaite.

“He’s going to loom large over these midterms,” Welker stated, according to the outlet. “There’s no doubt about that. He, of course, has endorsed a slate of candidates in the primaries. He’s had some mixed results, but most recently, his pick of Senator Darline Graham, of course, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, was successful in her primary battle, so now she takes on Dr. Annie Andrews in South Carolina.”

Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) in the GOP primary last week. Graham won with about 52.4 percent of the vote to Norman’s 47.6 percent.

In his post on social media, Trump said that media outlets are “going out of their way to harass, demean, and libel anything ‘TRUMP'” and that he has a “99% SUCCESS Rate on Endorsements, [and] 100% on Senatorial Endorsements.”

“In actuality, it is, without question, the strongest Endorsement in the History of Politics,” the president added. “If it were not, I would be the first to admit it. Darline Graham’s run for the Senate was the biggest story in all of Politics, because she wasn’t expected to win, and then, when I Endorsed her, and she easily won, the story of her Victory was hardly covered by anybody. Likewise, the future Governor of Oklahoma, who was behind in every Poll, I Endorsed him, he won, and the story was barely covered!”

Later, Trump wrote that he hopes that FCC Chair Brendan Carr and other commissioners in the agency will take the media’s coverage of his endorsement record “very seriously.”

NBC did not immediately respond to an Epoch Times request for comment Sunday.

A spokesperson for NBC said in a statement provided to media outlets that Welker “is one of the best in the business and we stand by her.”

The comment comes roughly a year after Carr said that ABC host Jimmy Kimmel may have violated federal broadcasting regulations when Kimmel made comments about Charlie Kirk in the wake of his assassination. ABC suspended Kimmel’s late-night show before he returned to the air around a week later.

And in June of this year, Trump abruptly ended an interview with Welker and said that “Meet the Press” was presenting a one-sided viewpoint.

US stock futures dropped in thin trading with most traders out as summer draws to a close, while oil prices jumped after the US and Iran exchanged attacks for first time in weeks. Brent futures rallied almost 4% topping $90-handle and WTI contracts rise above $86 a barrel. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures dropped about 0.2% and contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.1% as most Mag 7 stocks drop while energy stocks rise (CVX +2%, XOM +2%) with as tensions resume in the Middle East. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 equity index edged 0.2% lower, with UK markets closed for a holiday. Asian equities fall across the region. Nikkei sheds almost 1% while the Kospi closed flat, reversing an earlier loss. Hang Seng drifts 0.7% lower and ChiNext is down 1.3%. The dollar weakens against most FX majors. The yen strengthens back below 160/USD following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s BOJ remarks. Offshore yuan is 0.1% firmer after a small manufacturing PMI beat. Treasury 10-year yields are flat at 4.72% after Friday’s post J-Hole blowout as the curve bull steepens despite higher energy prices. In commodities, the overnight Middle East attacks are driving oil prices higher with WTI above $85/bbl and Brent above $90/bbl. Elsewhere base metals are outperforming precious even as gold recovered from a $50 drop to trade unchanged around $4,460 an ounce. This week’s macro data include ISM / NFP with NFP one of 2 key prints (CPI) for the Fed to determine a Sept hike. Stronger ISM may boost the broadening portion of the rally. AVGO earnings may boost the Tech / AI theme.

• In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower with the exception of NVDA which rises 0.6% after Friday’s slide (Apple -0.3%, Meta -0.1%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%)
• BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) rises 4% after the company said it had entered into binding terms with Ascendis Pharma, resolving the patent and ancillary disputes concerning Ascendis’s Yuviwel.
• Energy stocks (CVX +2%, XOM +2%) rise with oil as tensions spiked in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in about a month and Tehran claiming a tanker was hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) rises 2% after UBS analyst Alex Stansbury raised the recommendation on to buy from neutral.
• PG&E (PCG) falls 15% and Edison International (EIX) declines 5.5% as California legislators introduced a bill that would update the state’s wildfire response without shifting liability away from publicly traded utilities.
• Pinterest (PINS) slips 3% after announcing Chief Financial Officer Julia Brau Donnelly will step down from her role on Oct. 30 after three years with the company.
• Science Applications (SAIC) rises 8% after the government IT services contractor boosted its revenue guidance for the full year.
• SLB (SLB) inches 1% higher after agreeing to acquire Kelvion, a firm that provides data center cooling solutions, from investors including Apollo Funds for $3.4 billion in cash.

In other corporate news Amgen’s Repatha (evolocumab) reduced the risk of death by 20% in high-risk adults without prior heart attack or stroke, versus placebo, in a pre-specified Phase 3 trial. SpaceX and NASA are delaying the launch of a planned mission to the International Space Station to fix an oxidizer leak in the Dragon spacecraft’s propulsion system. Shein Global Holdings Ltd. priced its IPO in Hong Kong. The fast-fashion retailer raised $1.7 billion, giving it a market value of $26 billion that’s a far cry from the $100 billion it once commanded. The shares fell as much as 17% in gray market trading.

US markets are set to open lower in the last trading session of a low-volume August as oil prices jumped on the back of renewed hostilities in the Middle East. A renewed rise in oil prices complicates the outlook for interest rates as investors digest Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation comments at Jackson Hole. Traders boosted bets on a September rate hike after he spoke, although some market commentators expressed skepticism about such a move. That said, traders already have an eye on the month ahead, with cross-current signals from other assets including bonds, the energy complex and currencies, while conversations on AI capex are never far from earshot. 

A lot of weekend commentary was devoted to digesting the Warsh speech at Jackson Hole, with some commentators of the view that it wasn’t as epochal as the volume of attention suggests. Yes, the tone was hawkish, but some bond investors are voicing skepticism about Fed hikes. Warsh said financial conditions aren’t currently restrictive and described rates as the Fed’s “predominant tool” for achieving its mandate, while stopping short of signaling support for a hike in September. Even so, bond investors at ABN Amro Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are skeptical that higher rates will happen

The Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 lists three objectives: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The third receives remarkably little attention, with the first two hogging the limelight, notes Gary Paulin of Northern Trust Asset Management. “Could that objective become more important if the other two prove difficult to manage simultaneously?” Paulin thinks it could.

Meanwhile, real-world inflation remains in view: Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of soybeans, cotton, coffee, sugar and orange juice, is about to kick off planting season facing a global diesel crunch colliding with a seasonal spike in demand for the fuel. Goldman Sachs stepped up warnings of tightness in global refining driven by wars in the Middle East and between Moscow and Kyiv, with the bank more than doubling its forecasts for profits from making diesel.

Additionally, the US-China AI funding divide remains a perplexing question for investors. While hyperscalers have gone from accounting for 2% of US nonfinancial investment-grade bond issuance in 2025 to 19% this year, China’s AI race is creating no such pressure on yields as its tech firms rely predominately on bank loans and equity financing rather than the bond market. But a resource-hungry AI revolution will require broader funding avenues over the long run. Speaking of AI, SK Hynix is studying the feasibility of a joint venture to make memory chips in Japan to meet surging AI demand while controlling production costs. And Amazon is expected to be the next hyperscaler to tap Australia’s debt market for billions of dollars in capital, according to the Financial Review. 

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has increasingly become an expression of semiconductor/AI FOMO, with investors chasing upside through long calls, creating a “vol up/spot up” dynamic at times this year before the recent reversal. And the semiconductor cohort that drove the early summer tech melt-up is giving way to other pockets in tech, as explored in today’s Taking Stock column. 

In geopolitics, this week’s G20 meeting in North Carolina is in focus. The US Treasury has excluded journalists from several media outlets, including Bloomberg News, from the gathering. Bessent is said to be pushing the G20 to rethink China trade terms, Reuters reported.  

European stocks trade sideways at the start of the week with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1% as oil prices and bond yields rose amid simmering tensions between the US and Iran, and on low volumes, with London closed for a bank holiday.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Engcon gains as much as 9.5%, the most since July, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri named the construction equipment firm its stock of the week, recommending readers buy shares in the company
• InPost trades little changed after its stronger than expected 2Q profitability was overshadowed by a weaker outlook for the remainder of the year, with new EU customs rules on small parcels set to weigh on volumes in Poland
• Bakkafrost shares fall as much as 7.6%, the most since July, after the salmon farmer reported its latest earnings. SB1 Markets says another weak quarter in Scotland weighs on the result due to “significant” biological issues

Asian stocks recovered from earlier declines as South Korean shares swung to a gain, while regional financial companies also advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after earlier dropping more than 1%. Korea’s Kospi closed up 0.5%, led by gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while China’s CSI 300 Index rose 0.3%. Regional stocks had fallen at the start of trade after Fed chair Kevin Warsh sounded hawkish in his comments at Jackson Hole on Friday. MSCI’s regional equity gauge has risen 3.1% in August, snapping two months of declines.  A gauge of Asia’s bank shares led gains on expectations of higher yields. Energy and utilities stocks also rose on higher oil prices stemming from the US attack on Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz. A gauge of Asia’s bank shares led gains on expectations of higher yields. Energy and utilities stocks also rose on higher oil prices stemming from the US attack on Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Warsh had warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and added policymakers must be confident that it is clearly moving to their objective. Otherwise, they “have work to do.”

Warsh’s remarks “were the clearest signal yet that the Fed sees inflation, not growth, as the bigger risk right now,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. “Markets have quickly repriced September hike odds.” “On the positive story, under the surface is that AI monetization is broadening out,” Leung said. “We saw enterprise software and cybersecurity names post some of their strongest moves of the year on earnings, which tells you the AI trade is no longer just about chips and hyperscalers.”

In FX, the dollar weakens against most FX majors. The yen strengthens back below 160/USD following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s BOJ remarks. Offshore yuan is 0.1% firmer after a small manufacturing PMI beat.

In rates, treasury 10-year yield eases a basis point to 4.71%. Australian yields are little changed. JGB futures inch slightly lower.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the yield curve steeper in thin trading conditions with UK market closed for a bank holiday. Front-end tenors outperform as investors continue to digest Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments on inflation last week in Jackson Hole, which spurred the biggest increase in 2-year yields since June 17 as additional tightening was priced in. Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp richer on the day, long-end tenors cheaper by about 1bp, steepening 2s10s by about 2.5bp, 5s30s by about 2bp, unwinding a small portion of Friday’s dramatic flattening move; 10-year yields are little changed around 4.72% Long-end tenors may benefit over Monday’s session from anticipation of buying related to the month-index index rebalancing at 4pm, which will increase its duration by an estimated 0.10 year.  Regarding Fed policy expectations, around 16bp of tightening remains priced in for the Sept. 16 decision; Barr, Waller and Hammack are scheduled to speak this week before the Sept. 5 start of the external communications blackout around that meeting. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, and Treasury coupon issuance is on hiatus until next week’s 3- and 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions.

In commodities, oil benchmarks are up more than 3%, after tensions rose in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in about a month while Tehran claimed a tanker was hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures rally almost 4% topping $90-handle and WTI contracts rise above $86 a barrel. Gold falls more than $40 to near $4,410 an ounce.

US economic data calendar includes August Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am; ahead this week are ISM manufacturing and services gauges, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment change and, on Friday, the August jobs report

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran and the United States traded attacks for the first time in over a month overnight into Monday. Iran fired missiles toward US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in retaliation for a strike on Iranian rocket launchers that the US said were trying to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The exchange of strikes came just days after President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz free from mines and is a break with Washington’s recent shift in focus to maximizing economic pressure on Iran rather than military actions. CNN
• Iranian leaders are acknowledging the economic toll of war with the U.S., with the supreme leader urging the government to address the hardship and the president saying foreign trade has shrunk by a third due to the American sanctions and blockade. Yet Tehran signaled no retreat on Saturday, ‌vowing to withstand U.S. pressure, pursue diplomacy and maintain what it said was control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
• President Donal Trump said Friday night the United States has reached an oil agreement with Venezuela, a move he said will “more than double” American oil reserves, increase oil supply and lower gas prices. The deal is said to “secure majority control” of more than 65B barrels worth of oil reserves in Venezuela, or ~20% of the country’s total. CNN / FT
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday he will encourage G20 members to re-examine terms of ‌trade with China to shrink global imbalances and press Beijing to rebalance its economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. Bessent said in an interview ahead of a G20 finance leaders meeting that the current flood of exports from China was unsustainable, even though the U.S. direct trade position with China was “rapidly improving.” Reuters 
• China’s official manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August, suggesting that momentum has yet to rebound after July’s sharp downturn. BBG
• China will start checking the security of its military supply chains, joining other nations in ramping up self-reliance of their defense industries.
• Iranian authorities seized an unidentified bulk carrier for polluting waters in the Persian Gulf near Bandar Abbas, state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reports.
• SK Hynix is exploring a joint venture to make memory chips in Japan to meet surging AI demand, Chairman Chey Tae-won said. BBG
• South Korea’s industrial production for Jul came in ahead of expectations at +0.2% M/M (vs. the Street -0.5%). BBG
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said it is planning “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, days after launching a devastating attack on a warehouse near Kyiv, amplifying fears of another winter assault. CNBC  
• September is historically the worst month for Wall St, and traders are preparing for volatility during the coming weeks, with the FOMC meeting on 9/16 potentially a major catalyst. Barron’s 
• A bipartisan US bill would permanently ban Chinese internet-connected vehicles, and target Chinese software and hardware in US autos: NYT 

Geopolitical Update

• US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, which were said to be on standby to launch missiles with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz, while there were later reports of explosions heard near Larak Island.
• US Central Command said IRGC claims of US aggression in the Strait of Hormuz are false, but added the US conducted limited precise action against IRGC minelaying forces that posed an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned the US strike on Larak Island would be met with a response and punishment, while it said several soldiers and civilians were killed and wounded in the assault.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later announced that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response, although a US official cited by Fox News stated no major damage in Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan and that all missiles were intercepted.
• Iran’s Press TV noted reports of Iran firing missiles towards US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and there were reports of explosions heard in the UAE and in Qatar, while Iran’s army later said it launched tens of drones at the Al Minhad air base in the UAE.
• IRGC said a supertanker caught fire and was halted after being struck by two naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while it added that the tanker was attempting to pass illegally through the Strait of Hormuz and that ships must comply with its rules for passage. IRGC separately announced that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it will respond decisively to any further enemy military aggression, and stated that the US and parties supporting its military actions bear full responsibility for consequences of escalation.
• US President Trump reiterated in a pre-recorded Fox News interview that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and said the Iran blockade has been unbelievable, while he also commented that the US had to intervene in the Middle East to prevent Iran from using a nuclear weapon against Israel and other countries in the region and possibly against the US.
• US President Trump posted a generated video with the caption “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!”
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US Treasury plans to impose more Iran secondary sanctions every week, starting with banks. He also stated that they are telling banks it’s not okay to have Iranian money and to aid the Iranian regime, and they will probably just sanction a bank outright next time, after the US imposed curbs on an Egyptian bank’s United Arab Emirates branches.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said they are not looking for war, but will give a decisive response to the aggressors, while he added that instability and unrest in the region are not in the interest of any countries and will create challenges for everyone.
• Iran’s President said on Friday that Iran is ready for cooperation and understanding with regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while it is to open its route if four commitments are met. He also stated that Iran is to increase gasoline prices, and that exports and imports have decreased by up to 35% because of US sanctions and the blockade.
• US officials said they are monitoring the Strait of Hormuz and will strike any forces that threaten navigation in the waterway, Al Arabiya reported.
• Iran’s IRGC Navy said compliance with regulations issued for the Strait of Hormuz is mandatory and warned against being “misled” by the US, Press TV reported.
• Yemeni armed forces reportedly targeted Saudi ships in the Red Sea, ISNA reported citing Yemeni media reports.
• UAE Ministry of Defense denied reports that Al Minhad Air Base was targeted by missiles, calling the claims unfounded and saying it remains on high alert and fully prepared to respond to any threats.
• Iranian oil operations are continuing on Kharg Island, and the oil sector there has not stopped, Al Hadath reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower heading into month-end and after recent hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole, while tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend after the US and Iran resumed strikes for the first time in over a month. ASX 200 saw mixed price action and was initially kept afloat amid strength in the top-weighted financials sector and with gains also seen in energy, utility and consumer industries, although upside was limited and eventually reversed following disappointing Private Sector Credit and Company Profits data. Nikkei 225 gapped lower at the open to below the 66,000 level, although it was off today’s worst levels as participants also reflected on stronger-than-expected Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. KOSPI retreated amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with a report noting that day traders are abandoning Korean chip leveraged ETFs in large numbers, with leveraged ETFs targeting twice the daily returns of chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, on course for their first monthly outflow. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued, with risk appetite not helped by the latest official PMI data, in which headline Manufacturing topped forecasts, but Non-Manufacturing disappointed and both remained in contraction territory.

Top Asian News

• Japanese government is to request JPY 143tln for the budget (general account) in FY27, Nikkei reported citing sources.
• South Korean President Lee nominated Lee Hyoung-il as the new finance minister and Kang Shin-chul as defence minister.
• China’s MOFCOM targets around CNY 60tln in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030.
• New Zealand government cancelled fuel tax hike planned for next year.

European bourses are mixed to start the week, with Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforming while Germany’s DAX 40 lags. To note, UK markets are closed today for a Summer Bank Holiday. Little in terms of newsflow; however, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in around a month at the weekend, with the US targeting Larak Island while Iran struck two US bases in Jordan. Overnight, South Korea’s KOSPI gapped lower and traded with losses as much as 3.6%, before reversing and closing with gains of 0.5%. Samsung Securities’ Roy Lim explains this reversal by pointing to notable buying by pension funds, primarily in tech names. Lim said pensions bought KRW 120bln worth of shares over a 20-minute period heading into the close. Sectors are mixed. Chemicals top the sector pile, with Autos and Energy completing the sector outperformers. Tech is the laggard, with worries that the Fed hiking rates will drag yields higher and, in turn, weigh on tech. Real Estate and Industrials round out the sector laggards.

Top European News

• German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (Aug MM) 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
• German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (Aug YY) 2.9% (Prev. 2.7%).

FX

• Some USD weakness emerged this morning with DXY falling to a base around 99.50 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 99.19-99.72 rally seen after Warsh’s speech. Sell side commentary viewed the speech as hawkish, but Morgan Stanley said it was “not convinced it means hikes are coming” while GS said nothing is yet baked in and with focus on incoming data. Some also note algos reacted to Warsh’s use of “hike” within the context of “hikes on the trails”, in his use of a Kohn/Bernanke analogy. Note, month end may be playing a part in some of the moves seen this morning, where Barclays sees moderate USD selling.
• Action elsewhere paints the picture of the weaker USD, with all majors firmer vs. the Buck.
• JPY leads with earlier, modest losses accelerated around 160.00 where it fell to a 159.74 base. Data overnight showed better-than-expected Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, though nothing which moved JPY at the time.
• EUR keeps focus on French politics where PM Lecornu’s preview of the 2027 budget ruled out tax increases and de-indexing small pensions. In terms of the 2027 presidential election, an Elabe poll showed Le Pen victorious in every run-off tested, while Philippe (centre) currently appears best placed to challenge, polling at around 47.5%. On the left is Mélenchon, whose odds have ticked lower in recent days, perhaps a welcome development to EUR and EGBs. For now, EUR within a thin 1.1578-1.1606 with UK participants away on Bank holiday. To remind, Barclays sees moderate EUR buying vs USD.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the week for fixed income. The European morning has been particularly quiet, owing to the fact that the UK is away on Bank Holiday. USTs are currently firmer by a few ticks, in 108-01 to 108-09 parameters; note, the initial low went below last week’s trough by half a tick, and any resumption of the move looks to 107-31+ from the last week of July.
• Overnight, USTs, JGBs and Bunds were all in relatively narrow ranges and ultimately didn’t significantly differ from the unchanged mark. Broadly speaking, the main focus was the weekend’s geopolitical updates and particularly US action on Larak Island and then Iranian retaliation.
• Geopolitics aside, desks remain focused on the speech by Fed Chair Warsh last week, which had a hawkish skew and has contributed to the implied probability of a September 25bps hike increasing to just under 60% currently via CME, vs around 41% one week ago.
• Bunds reside in the red by a few ticks. Nonetheless, the benchmark holds at the upper-end of 123.43-60 parameters. No move to the German State CPIs, which saw the Y/Y tick up modestly from the prior, in-fitting with consensus for the 13:00BST mainland figure. On Tuesday, we get the Flash EZ HICP series, and given what we have seen so far the energy component may be the most pertinent.

Commodities

• Over the weekend, tensions between the US and Iran escalated after US forces struck IRGC missile and minelaying capabilities on Larak Island, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile and drone attacks against US and regional military targets. Further, Iran reported striking a tanker with mines, downing a US drone and targeting US vessels, while both sides exchanged warnings of further retaliation. President Trump reiterated that Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons, while Washington is also intensifying economic pressure through additional sanctions. Despite the escalation, Iranian leaders said they do not seek war and remain open to regional cooperation, whilst also warning of a decisive response to further attacks.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures gapped higher at the open after the US and Iran resumed strikes for the first time in over a month. The contracts are firmer by over 3%, with USD 84.11-86.53/bbl and USD 89.03-91.38/bbl ranges respectively. Dutch TTF surged by some 4% intraday and tested EUR 70/MWh this morning. “Tight supply entering the heating season leaves the market vulnerable to spikes higher later in the year”, ING says.
• Metals are flat/mixed with the complex somewhat cushioned by the softer USD despite the backdrop of higher energy prices. Spot gold moves closer to its 100 DMA to the downside (USD 4,370/oz) after dipping under Friday’s low (4,445/oz) to trade in a current USD 4,396-4,472/oz range. 3M LME copper trades in a narrow USD 14,223.68- 14,388.55/t.

Central Banks

• Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson said Sweden’s inflation outlook has become more uncertain after unexpectedly high inflation readings this summer but the Riksbank’s have scope to wait before adjusting monetary policy, even if there are some risks of elevated inflation going forward. Jansoon added that Sweden’s economic recovery could prove more persistent than expected but does not currently see signs that Sweden’s economy is at risk of overheating soon.
• New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommended the RBNZ hike the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at its meeting this week.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• The EU is to unveil “one of the biggest” Russia sanctions list in retaliation of hybrid threats, with the package to come alongside bilateral measures being prepared by Berlin, POLITICO reported citing sources.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky is to send top sanctions adviser to Capitol Hill this week in a bid to convince House lawmakers to drop their opposition to the Senate-passed Russia sanctions bill, Punchbowl reported.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: Aug Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1.6, prior 1.3

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

Charlie Becker’s family bookstore in Houston has been connecting people with literature for more than 30 years.

Becker said the family has “seen a lot of changes” since his dad opened the used and rare book store in 1993.

When he was 12 years old, Becker remembers his dad making one of the store’s first larger purchases. Another local business planned to get rid of its collection of books, but first called Becker’s father.

“It was in their [company’s] last days, and they said my dad had to pick up the books. I went with him to the warehouse,” he said.

Becker grew up with that story of rescuing books bound for a landfill with his dad. Over the years, he has watched the entire industry of acquiring and selling books change with the rise of the internet, digital cataloging, and the emergence of major sellers such as Amazon.

For generations, booksellers have worked to preserve humanity’s writing. However, the recent revelation that millions of print books are being scanned to train artificial intelligence models and then destroyed presents an unprecedented challenge.

To make matters worse, book collectors and sellers say there’s no easy way to make it stop.

The practice of what has been dubbed AI “book shredding” burst onto the scene after a 2025 court document revealed that AI tech giant Anthropic purchased millions of printed books, removed their bindings, then scanned each page into digital datasets. Afterward, Anthropic shredded and discarded the originals.

It was revealed that the project was part of an ongoing expansion of Anthropic’s central library, which has an aim to collect “all the books in the world” and retain them “forever.” The undertaking was called Project Panama.

The same document noted that Tom Turvey, former head of partnerships for Google’s own book-scanning project, was hired to acquire material for the project. Turvey’s team emailed “major book distributors and retailers about bulk purchasing their print copies for Anthropic’s ‘research library.'”

Court filings from the Bartz v. Anthropic lawsuit, unsealed in January, named retailers such as Better World Books and World of Books as vendors from which Anthropic acquired thousands of books.

Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.

“Sourcing books is a widely used approach for training large language models across the AI industry,” an Anthropic spokesman told technology website Tom’s Guide. “None of our data acquisition programs buy and destroy rare or antiquarian books.”

While a federal judge ruled the destructive scanning of legally purchased books qualified as transformative fair use-alteration of an original work for a new purpose-the practice has sparked a growing wave of public outrage.

Concern is also growing among book dealers, many of whom say systematically shredding books means more than just losing words, but also cultural artifacts.

Between the Lines

“What I’ve been hearing is alarming. People are right to raise a red flag about it,” Susan Benne, executive director of the Antiquarian Booksellers’ Association of America, told The Epoch Times.

The association has been a trusted source of rare and print books since 1949. Benne said the destruction of printed materials, even if they’re not rare or antiquarian, strikes at the heart of something sentimental in most people.

“Just the attachment to maybe something you read as a child or in college, I think it’s hard for a lot of us to see that kind of destruction,” Benne said. She compared AI book shredding to a flood, a museum fire, or a similar disastrous event that wipes out a repository of human knowledge and culture.

“It hits the same nerve.”

Becker agrees with this and thinks the practice of destructive book shredding, particularly to train AI, triggers something “visceral” in people. “I do think we lose something culturally when certain books are deemed as commodities or expendable,” he said.

However, Becker said it’s important to clarify that not all of the books being fed into the jaws of AI training were rare or out of print.

“A lot of people are upset because they have the idea that it’s all these rare books like priceless works,” he said. “But people need to keep in mind, a lot of times it can be stuff like an old GE refrigerator manual.”

Benne concurred. “Just because something is out of print doesn’t mean it’s rare. From what we’ve heard, many [of the books] were common items.”

However, she added, “That’s not to say people shouldn’t be worried.”

Suspicious Orders

One of the greatest challenges to stopping this practice is a lack of transparency around who is buying the large volumes of books.

In July, a 404 Media report flagged the book database ISBNdb for promoting print book acquisition services that would keep buyer information confidential.

ISBNdb has since changed the landing page on its website titled “Printed Books Sourcing for Your AI LLMs Dataset Needs.” The website now states that the company was “exploring demand” and has “chosen to pivot away from that direction.”

When questioned about this practice, a representative from ISBNdb reiterated the statement on the company’s website. ISBNdb has never “purchased, scanned, or destroyed a book for AI training or anything else,” the representative told The Epoch Times. “We have never bought or sold printed books for AI training: no orders, no purchases, no books.”

But even if they had, that’s just one aspect of the issue. Non-disclosure agreements can be involved when sellers are working with big buyers, Benne said. “It’s not currently common practice to ask a seller, ‘What are you going to use this book for?'”

The lack of available information is why Becker thinks it’s important to know what books are being scanned for AI use and then destroyed.

“Literally no one knows; that’s part of the problem,” he said. “Somebody who cares about our literary heritage should be in that pipeline somewhere, but that’s not what’s happening.”

Back in April, Becker noticed a sudden spike in book sales: between double and triple his usual weekly sales tally.

Working in the warehouse for his family’s store, he said, “You kind of get a feel for what people order.”

The warehouse holds about 300,000 titles, and when the sales volume began picking up, he dug into the orders.

“That’s when I went online, and I saw a lot of people were talking about the same thing,” he said.

“This is crazy. I counted, I looked deeper: The last 100 book orders we’d received, 95 were from the same buyer. For all the book orders to come in that way, it was very strange.”

Read the rest here…

When did “election integrity” become such a contentious issue in the US?  Perhaps it was election night in November 2020 when Joe Biden and the Democrats received an impressive “hockey stick” spike in votes after most Americans went to bed.  Most of these votes came from absentee mail-in ballots, an event which inflated Joe Biden’s numbers to 81.2 million – The greatest number of votes any candidate has ever received in US history.

That’s right, the candidate who was rarely seen for half of the campaign cycle and who could barely fill a room during campaign speeches was apparently the most popular candidate of all time.  

It’s understandable why a large percentage of the public viewed this incident with great suspicion.  In 2024, with covid confusion gone and all eyes watching the polls carefully, Kamala Harris fell short of Biden by 6.3 million votes.  Ironically, many Dems suggested that that the election was “rigged” in Trump’s favor because of the sizable discrepancy between Harris and Biden. 

They didn’t consider the possibility that the 2020 election might have been rigged in Biden’s favor, giving him a vote count that probably won’t be matched again for many elections to come.

Or, maybe Joe Biden really was that charismatic, earning the most votes of all time.  He’s a sharp and engaging guy.  In any case, the Trump Administration has made election integrity the centerpiece of its political mission.  Two important policies are at stake:  Voter identification which nearly 80% of the public supports, and limitations on mail-in ballots including tracking and verification to prevent fraud. 

Democrats are aggressively opposed to both, calling the measures “racist” and “fascist”. 

Why?  Probably because they want the option to cheat.  There’s really no other explanation for standing against secure voting.  Trump’s efforts to pass these rules into law through traditional congressional measures has been met with numerous obstacles, including a small handful of Republicans who are siding with the Democrats. 

Trump is now trying alternative pathways. The March 2026 executive order that triggered the USPS rule is titled Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections. It says unique ballot-envelope identifiers such as barcodes “enable confirmation that only citizens receive and cast ballots, reducing the risk of fraud and protecting the integrity of Federal elections.”

The Postal Service also reserves the right to reject ballots without proper verification of legal voter recipients.  Sounds like commons sense, and the Supreme Court has agreed, for now.  The court issued a procedural stay that let the executive order move forward, but the legality remains in question.  

Meanwhile, 24 states and the District of Columbia have moved to sue the Postal Service to prevent ballot tracking measures.  The rule would require states to enroll mail-eligible voters in a USPS portal, use USPS-approved ballot envelopes with trackable barcodes, and allow USPS not to deliver ballots that do not meet those conditions.

The states argue that this exceeds USPS’s authority, interferes with states’ control of elections, and risks blocking lawful ballots shortly before the November 2026 midterms. 

Democrats in multiple states have been rather open about their intentions to allow illegal immigrants to vote in elections.  For example, the D.C. Council (Democratic) passed the Noncitizen Voting Act in 2022. It lets noncitizens vote in local D.C. elections. During House voting to repeal that law (2024 and again June 2025), 148 Democrats voted no – meaning they wanted D.C. to keep illegal immigrant voting in place.

Ballot measures help to prevent blue states from skirting federal voting laws when it comes to citizenship.  

The blackpill argument in light of voter fraud is that the system is “already too far gone to save”, but there’s no such thing as an overnight fix.  Such problems take years to develop and they take years to remedy, starting with basic baby steps and fundamentals. 

Extensive tracking of mail-in ballots to make sure they’re secure and legitimate is a no-brainer.  It should already be law.  The fact that certain groups don’t want any verification in place for voting tells us everything we need to know about their intentions.    

Military Strike Tit-for-Tat Resumes After Weeks 

Brent crude futures climbed back above $90 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate topped $86 after the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month. Tehran also claimed that an unidentified supertanker was struck by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, diesel crack spreads are approaching $100 a barrel again, suggesting an increasingly severe shortage across refined-product markets as the summer draws to a close. 

US Central Command said American forces struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to deploy anti-ship mines in the critical waterway. The US has touted the Oman shipping corridor as open for business and moving crude and other energy products. Tehran’s inability to halt tankers passing through that part of the strait may suggest that its offensive capabilities have been degraded.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it retaliated by targeting US air bases in Jordan, while the United Arab Emirates intercepted an Iranian drone over its territorial waters.

Trump: ‘Failed Nation’

Trump on Monday morning issued a Truth Social declaring Iran a “failed nation”:

The US military (CENTCOM) has said it did not target Kharg Island in the overnight strikes. According to a summation of there things stand:

The latest U.S.-Iran escalation appears increasingly centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been using small boats to monitor and identify commercial vessels transiting the Strait using Omani waters for an undetermined period. The boats can blend into civilian maritime traffic, making them difficult to distinguish from ordinary vessels. This comes amid sporadic Iranian attacks and attempts to restrict ships transiting Hormuz without Iranian permission.

The U.S. then struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island after assessing they were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait. Iran responded with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, with eight missiles reportedly intercepted. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was also reportedly targeted, though that remains unconfirmed.

The pattern suggests Iran is attempting to reassert control or disrupt maritime traffic through Hormuz, while the U.S. is acting to prevent Iran from closing or mining the waterway. Various reports indicate transits through the strait of Hormuz have declined. What remains to be seen is whether the strikes from both sides tonight will continue in the coming days.

Crude Transit Opening?

“Brent crude is firmer at $90.48/bbl, up 2.5%, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz support the geopolitical risk premium,” UBS analyst Dharmesh Gangaram wrote in a note.

Gangaram continued, “Overall, the desk sees a cautious, risk-off start to the session. Geopolitical developments and lower European liquidity are likely to remain the key drivers, with particular attention on the resources complex amid broad-based weakness in precious metals.”

Despite the overnight tit-for-tat attacks, an estimated 6 million to 8 million barrels per day of crude, primarily from US-allied Gulf producers, continues to move through Hormuz.

We previewed this in a note last week titled:

• “Dark” Tanker Fleet Shatters Iran’s Hormuz Stranglehold As Gulf Oil Exports Top Two-Thirds Of Pre-War Level

“The key is to watch the barrels, and as long as they continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the buying appetite in the market remains muted for fear of being caught out,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a note.

Last week, the top US commander for the Middle East said American forces had cleared Iranian mines from the Hormuz waterway, declaring the shipping lanes open.

With its missile batteries, drone launchers, naval units, surveillance networks, or command infrastructure degraded, Iran appears to be shifting from conventional sea denial toward a lower-cost asymmetric strategy.

Weekend Developments

•  US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, which were said to be on standby to launch missiles with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz, while there were later reports of explosions heard near Larak Island.
• US Central Command said IRGC claims of US aggression in the Strait of Hormuz are false, but added the US conducted limited precise action against IRGC minelaying forces that posed an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned the US strike on Larak Island would be met with a response and punishment, while it said several soldiers and civilians were killed and wounded in the assault.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later announced that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response, although a US official cited by Fox News stated no major damage in Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan and that all missiles were intercepted.
• Iran’s Press TV noted reports of Iran firing missiles towards US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and there were reports of explosions heard in the UAE and in Qatar, while Iran’s army later said it launched tens of drones at the Al Minhad air base in the UAE.
• IRGC said a supertanker caught fire and was halted after being struck by two naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while it added that the tanker was attempting to pass illegally through the Strait of Hormuz and that ships must comply with its rules for passage. IRGC separately announced that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it will respond decisively to any further enemy military aggression, and stated that the US and parties supporting its military actions bear full responsibility for consequences of escalation.
• US President Trump reiterated in a pre-recorded Fox News interview that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and said the Iran blockade has been unbelievable, while he also commented that the US had to intervene in the Middle East to prevent Iran from using a nuclear weapon against Israel and other countries in the region and possibly against the US.
• US President Trump posted a generated video with the caption “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!”
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US Treasury plans to impose more Iran secondary sanctions every week, starting with banks. He also stated that they are telling banks it’s not okay to have Iranian money and to aid the Iranian regime, and they will probably just sanction a bank outright next time, after the US imposed curbs on an Egyptian bank’s United Arab Emirates branches.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said they are not looking for war, but will give a decisive response to the aggressors, while he added that instability and unrest in the region are not in the interest of any countries and will create challenges for everyone.
• Iran’s President said on Friday that Iran is ready for cooperation and understanding with regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while it is to open its route if four commitments are met. He also stated that Iran is to increase gasoline prices, and that exports and imports have decreased by up to 35% because of US sanctions and the blockade.

Overnight Developments

• US officials said they are monitoring the Strait of Hormuz and will strike any forces that threaten navigation in the waterway, Al Arabiya reported.
• Iran’s IRGC Navy said compliance with regulations issued for the Strait of Hormuz is mandatory and warned against being “misled” by the US, Press TV reported.
• Yemeni armed forces reportedly targeted Saudi ships in the Red Sea, ISNA reported citing Yemeni media reports.
• UAE Ministry of Defense denied reports that Al Minhad Air Base was targeted by missiles, calling the claims unfounded and saying it remains on high alert and fully prepared to respond to any threats.
• Iranian oil operations are continuing on Kharg Island, and the oil sector there has not stopped, Al Hadath reported.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with G20 finance ministers and central bank governors later today in Asheville, North Carolina, to discuss strategies for reviving economic growth, correcting global imbalances, reassessing trade relationships with China, and addressing the sovereign debt mess.

The agenda today will also include plans to deepen Iran’s economic isolation, Reuters reported, citing a senior US Treasury official. The discussions signal a continuation of the financial-pressure campaign Bessent unveiled last week (read here).

“The world cannot have a China with a $1.2 trillion trade surplus,” Bessent told the outlet on Sunday. “The rest of the world is going to have to examine their terms of trade with China.”

Bessent accused Beijing of attempting to “export its way” out of an economic slowdown by flooding overseas markets with cheap Chinese goods that undermine foreign industrial bases. He said G20 members should pressure China to stimulate domestic consumption rather than dump goods in overseas markets.

A Treasury official told Reuters, “And so we’re really focusing on this head-on in our G20 discussions to ensure that our economies compete on productivity, innovation, and investment, and not on just sort of policies that push excess production and excess capacity into global markets.”

The comments from Bessent and the Treasury official echo similar comments from the administration, which is pressuring Beijing to change its export-heavy economic model because of the damage it inflicts on foreign industrial bases. Europe’s auto manufacturing base has found that out the hard way with the flood of BYD EVs. 

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Axios earlier this month, “We did that for 25 years with our best people, and everything got worse,” referring to efforts to persuade China to shift toward greater consumption.

The Treasury’s warning ahead of today’s G20 meeting comes as the Trump administration prepares to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over excess manufacturing capacity. The measure would restore Trump’s second-term tariffs on China to roughly 20%.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters earlier today that any differences with the US should be resolved through dialogue.

“China-US economic and trade ties are mutually beneficial in nature,” Guo said at a regular briefing in Beijing. “China never seeks a trade surplus and opposes unilateral tariff measures in all forms.”

Last Monday, Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” against Iran, resulting in sanctions against nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, including many based in China. The objective is to break China’s reliance on cheap crude imports from the Gulf region.

Politico recently reported that hawkish lawmakers on Capitol Hill have urged the Trump administration to target large Chinese banks to cut off Iran’s economic lifeline.

The Trump administration appears to be recalibrating its pressure campaign against the world’s second-largest economy carefully ahead of President Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month. We suspect the Trump team is negotiating with China before the meeting, with any meaningful escalation in tariffs or sanctions more likely to follow after the meeting. 

Shares of Unitree Robotics have nearly halved since the Chinese company’s blockbuster IPO almost two weeks ago, as concerns about a humanoid robotics bubble continue to mount. Not even China’s World Humanoid Robot Games or World Robot Conference generated enough enthusiasm among retail or institutional investors to rekindle upward momentum.

The warning signs were first visible from the opening bell in Shanghai. Unitree initially surged 629% when it began trading on Shanghai’s Star Market, immediately transforming China’s first publicly traded humanoid robot manufacturer into a real-time indicator of the industry.

Unitree’s valuation remains detached from even the assumptions of its own underwriting team. Citic Securities analysts valued the company at between 50.6 billion yuan and 55.9 billion yuan six to 12 months after listing. Even after the stock was halved, it is still worth more than four times the top of that range.

Through July, Unitree said it had produced about 18,000 humanoids, while first-quarter revenue increased 68.5% from a year earlier to 423 million yuan. Its current market capitalization is roughly 147 times its annualized first-quarter revenue.

“Given that level of uncertainty, Unitree’s high valuation is probably not justified,” said Chen Dong, CIO for Asia at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, citing the stock’s lofty price-to-earnings ratio and the difficulty of staying ahead in an “infant-level” industry where competition is intensifying.

Zhang Ying, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said, “Widespread adoption is currently hindered by financial constraints, such as high upfront and maintenance costs, and technical limitations, such as short battery life, which make it difficult for manufacturers to justify the investment.”

Unitree founder Wang Xingxing told the World Robot Conference in Beijing shortly after the IPO that mass-market adoption of these robots would be achieved within the next decade. That timeline is broadly in line with the forecasts we have provided readers from multiple institutional desks.

Unitree Strikes Double Gold on Day One🥇🥇🏃
The First World Humanoid Robot Games
Unitree takes first place in all Day-One races
1500m track race — 6:34.40 (Unweighted)
(Unitree H1 humanoid robot — the same model featured in the Spring Festival Gala)
400m track race — 1:28.03… pic.twitter.com/V1BPoNQMMP

— Unitree (@UnitreeRobotics) August 15, 2025

More broadly, the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (a yuan-denominated equity benchmark tracking Chinese companies involved in humanoid robotics, including robot manufacturers, AI systems, motion controls, precision actuators, and industrial automation) shows that the bubble has been deflating since peaking in mid-2025.

The next big test for Unitree and China’s robotics industry is whether they can scale commercially before Tesla brings its humanoid robot to market, which JPMorgan analysts expect to occur in the second half of 2027 (read here).