Shares of Primoris Services crashed in premarket trading after the infrastructure contractor slashed its full-year earnings outlook (again) and announced the departure of its chief operating officer.

The specialty construction and infrastructure contractor, which builds, maintains, and engineers critical infrastructure for utilities, energy, renewables, pipelines, power generation, industrial, chemical, oil and gas, civil infrastructure, and data-center power projects, blamed the guidance cut on weakness in its renewables business, where full-year revenue is now expected to fall about 30% from 2025 levels.

Primoris lowered its adjusted earnings forecast to $2.05 to $2.60 a share, well below the prior $4.80 to $5 range and the $4.74 Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $275 million to $325 million, down from a previous range of $480 million to $500 million.

“The Company is also anticipating lower revenue and gross profit for the full year 2026, primarily driven by lower expected revenue and gross profit in the Renewables business,”the company wrote in a press release. The warning comes as the Trump administration has focused on dialing back solar and wind projects in favor of reliable fossil-fuel power generation to shore up the fragile grid after an era of disastrous climate policies by the Biden-Harris regime.

Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.05 to $2.60, saw $4.80 to $5, estimate $4.74 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $275 million to $325 million, saw $480.0 million to $500.0 million, estimate $477.1 million
• Sees EPS $1.30 to $1.85, saw $4.05 to $4.25

Shares tumbled 34% in premarket trading, one month after plunging 50% on disappointing results and a guidance cut. As of Monday’s close, the stock was down 13% this year.

Institutional commentary:

1. Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman commented on the dismal earnings: “Painful second guidance cut following several signs indicating another blow up. The good news, it’s still just the six solar projects. Credibility concerns remain, but the $2B of bookings highlight demand remains as strong as ever for E&Cs.”

2. KeyBanc analyst Sangita Jain noted, “We need to step away until a clear picture of the underlying renewables business emerges and steps to right the ship become evident.”

3. Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha wrote, “We reiterate our Buy rating and support for PRIM’s stock following the relatively predictable cut to numbers yesterday. The company’s CEO and board have made a series of significant mistakes in our view, but those mistakes do not reduce the underlying value of PRIM’s businesses, especially those outside of the troubled renewable segment. Our price target continues to stand at $162.”

4. JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse published his first take, indicating, “First Take: Digging a Hole; PRIM Significantly Lowers Guidance Again, More Leadership Changes.”

Strouse provided clients with an adjusted EBITDA midpoint guidance pathway that management has laid out to investors over the course of the year, showing a significant rerating lower as execution problems in the renewables segment worsened.

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg show 10 “Buy” ratings, 4 “Neutrals,” and 1 “Sell”, with a $140 average 12-month price target.

2025 and 2026 gains have been mostly wiped out.

Certaintly Primoris has evaporated all confidence from the market with a series of material downside surprises to guidance over the last several months.

Oracle disclosed in a Form 10-K filing that it reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees over the past year as it automates white-collar jobs and frees up cash to splurge on AI infrastructure buildouts.

“Our periodic workforce restructurings and reorganizations can be disruptive,”  Oracle said in the annual financial regulatory publsihed on Monday, adding, “We have an existing restructuring plan in place under which we have made, and will continue to make, adjustments to our workforce in response to management changes, product changes, performance issues, changes in strategies, acquisitions and other internal and external considerations.”

It noted, “We may initiate new restructuring plans in the future. In addition, the adoption and deployment of AI technologies across our operations have resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce.”

The filing detailed how the tech giant ended its fiscal year with 141,000 full-time employees, down from 162,000 a year earlier. Costs associated with the workforce reduction totaled around $1.8 billion.

The labor cuts come as Oracle faces pressure amid its $55.7 billion capital expenditure spending spree in fiscal 2026, which is almost entirely tied to its AI cloud and data center buildout. That was up from $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025, meaning capex more than doubled year over year.

For fiscal 2027, Oracle is guiding even higher: about $70 billion in capex, plus another $20 billion to $25 billion of spending that it expects customers to repay. That implies up to $95 billion for AI and data-center capex in the current fiscal year.

Bloomberg was the first to report in March that Oracle planned to cut its workforce as it aggressively spent on AI data center buildouts.

Wall Street analysts forecast that the cloud unit’s data center spending will drive Oracle’s cash flow negative through the end of the decade, with a payoff not expected until 2030. In January, Oracle announced plans to raise $50 billion in debt and equity.

ORCL 5 Year CDS exploded to record highs …

ORCL 5 Year CDS vs. Oracle equity 

The labor restructuring should come as no surprise, as we cited Barclays earlier this year, which proposed that the “next step” for Oracle to drive free cash flow would be to lay off between 20,000 and 30,000 employees.

Read:

• A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater
• Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record
• Oracle Prepares To Axe Thousands Of Jobs In New Layoff Round

Oracle has joined the growing party of tech giants, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Xai, and others, that have outlined AI capex plans this year, collectively totaling $800 billion.

Last month, Meta axed some 8,000 jobs as the great “white-collar purge” continues across corporate America. AI has led to about 50,000 layoffs so far this year in the US, with IBM and Salesforce announcing large cuts.

Related:

• 20 College Majors Most Exposed To AI Job Disruption

Oracle appears to be using labor restructuring to start digging itself out of the considerable hole it has dug, with more layoffs likely this year.

Via The Cradle

Israel has set several “conditions” for the withdrawal of its occupation forces from Lebanon, Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom reported this week – after Tel Aviv was forced to stop bombing the country due to the US–Iran agreement. 

“Israel has three minimum conditions for withdrawing its forces from southern Lebanon: the withdrawal of all Hezbollah terrorists north of the Litani River; the dismantling of Hezbollah … infrastructure south of the Litani; and full Israeli freedom of action to remove threats,” the report said.

At the same time, Israel will continue to insist on maintaining a “defensive strip” in the country, senior officials told the outlet. 

The Israel Hayom report claims that occupation forces have surrounded a fortified underground complex at Ali al-Taher Hill, located east of Nabatieh and north of the Litani River. 

Ali al-Taher Hill is a highly strategic location overlooking the city of Nabatieh. Israel has been attempting to capture the area, but has faced fierce resistance and has been engaged in heavy battles over the area for several weeks. 

Israel Hayom and other Hebrew reports say the area holds an important command center for Hezbollah operations.

The report claimed resistance fighters are besieged there and that “Israel’s security establishment do not know how long the trapped terrorists will be able to hold out underground, but what is clear is that the military is preventing them from coming out.”

The Israeli army “does not intend to withdraw from the site until those terrorists are eliminated or surrender, followed by the destruction of the underground infrastructure.”

Unofficial reports and observers on social media say that the complex in question may be Hezbollah’s famous Imad-4 facility, which serves as a key command and weapons storage site.

Israel Hayom claims troops “are now positioned at all the entrances to the concrete, fortified command post,” adding that “dozens of terrorists underground are under growing distress, and it is no coincidence that they are activating Iran, which is demanding that the US force Israel into a ceasefire in Washington.”

The report comes after a brutal Israeli escalation in Lebanon over the weekend, which killed at least 100 people. Major clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah resistance fighters also raged throughout the weekend before a cessation of hostilities was imposed on Tel Aviv by Tehran’s pressure on Washington. 

Five Israeli occupation soldiers, including a battalion chief, were killed by the Shia resistance fighters between Thursday and Saturday – including four who burned to death in their tank.

Hezbollah has denied Israeli claims that its fighters are besieged, saying such reports were designed to boost the morale of Israeli forces after their failure to advance in the area.

Israeli officials continue to publicly reject withdrawal and are vowing that Tel Aviv’s forces will remain in the so-called ‘security zone’ in south Lebanon. “We don’t have territorial ambitions in Lebanon, but we will not withdraw from the security zone and expose our citizens to Hezbollah’s attacks and possible invasion,” says Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. 

His comments coincided with a CNN report saying Israel was considering “symbolic” withdrawals from “minor areas” in south Lebanon.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had said a day earlier that Tel Aviv will maintain an occupation in Lebanon for years. “We are there until Hezbollah disarms, and I think also beyond that, because we need defendable borders,” he said in an interview. 

🇮🇱🇱🇧 New Evidence Regarding an Underground Hezbollah Facility in the Ali a-Taher Area

While it had previously been widely believed that the sprawling underground complex in the Ali a-Taher ridge area was a strategic Hezbollah facility, Lebanese sources are now offering a… pic.twitter.com/q2ehjdH96f

— Barong (@Barong369) June 22, 2026

Asked if the military would stay “for years” in Lebanon, Smotrich said, “Yes, and I say this as someone who is currently holding negotiations over the management of the defense budget for the next decade.”

He stressed that “until Hezbollah disarms, we aren’t moving a millimeter,” adding that Israel’s prime minister and war minister support this stance. 

US equity futures are sharply lower as a Semis/South Korea-induced selloff has spread globally slamming tech stocks and pushing SpaceX 3% lower and below its first day of trading price of $150. Nasdaq stocks lead sentiment and early trading lower with AI cost concerns back in focus, as Bloomberg notes that traders are pointing to a South Korean media report we first highlighted at 8pm last night, saying SK Hynix is slowing expansion of AI memory chip production and shifting emphasis to commodity DRAM. As of 8:00am S&P futures were -1.3%, and Nasdaq futures tumbled 2.7%, both near session lows. In premarket trading, Intel and Micron led a broader decline among chipmakers while SpaceX fell 4.3%, below its $150 initial trade price. Chinese equities in Hong Kong entered a bear market. Mag7s are dragging the indices lower with MSFT / telecom the safety valve. In Seoul, chip giants SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. slumped more than 10%. According to JPM, today’s sell-off “may reflect anxiety into MU’s print on Weds as well as the levered ETF mkt structure.” Bonds are operating as a safety haven as the yield curve bull steepens, and USD is bid. Commodities are seeing further declines in Energy as US / Iran discussions continue and precious metals are getting hit due to USD (gold) and AI / Tech (silver). Ags are mixed. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, ADP’s weekly employment print, and regional Fed activity indicators. 

In premarket trading, chipmakers, memory stocks and other AI-related firms slide during the broader selloff. Decliners include Micron (MU -7%), Intel (INTC -6%), AMD (AMD -6%) and CoreWeave (CRWV -5%).

• Nvidia leads most of the Magnificent Seven group lower (Nvidia -2%, Tesla -2%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft +1%, Apple -0.3%, Amazon -0.6%, Alphabet -2%,)
• Avis Budget (CAR) climbs 4% as the rental car company entered into a settlement agreement with Pentwater Capital Management and affiliated persons to resolve a lawsuit seeking recovery of short-swing profits, the company said in a filing.
• Best Buy (BBY) falls 3% after the company said Matt Bilunas will step down as CFO and depart the retailer at the end of July after 20 years, including seven years as CFO.
• Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) rises 9% after people familiar with the matter said the maker of Schick razors has rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from private equity firm Yellow Wood Partners.
• IBM (IBM) gains 4% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight and as the company announced it has joined the OpenAI Daybreak Cyber Partner Program.
• Primoris Services (PRIM) sinks 35% after the infrastructure construction company cut its adjusted earnings guidance for the full year.

In other corporate news, Oracle reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees in the past 12 months, a wider scale than previously known, including those whose jobs were eliminated by the use of AI. SoftBank’s founder said there’s little merit to building data centers in space, while acknowledging that AI competition is intensifying. 

In an ugly session that started with a rout in South Korea, the Kospi finished down 10% while Nasdaq 100 contracts lose 2.5% and are struggling to find a floor. European stocks are not immune with the Stoxx 600 down 1%. Other assets have been caught up in the equity selloff with spot silver down over 4% and Bitcoin dropping 3%. Memory stocks, many of which are riding triple-digit gains this year, recorded some of the steepest losses. SpaceX was poised to fall below its first-day opening price of $150. 

In Seoul, chip giants SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. slumped more than 10%. Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. led a broader decline among chipmakers in US premarket trading, while SpaceX fell 4.3%. Chinese equities in Hong Kong entered a bear market. 

BofA equity derivative strategists said the Nasdaq 100’s heavy concentration in technology stocks has fueled its outperformance versus the S&P 500 in both returns and volatility. That’s pushed the Nasdaq’s Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) closer to a key level which often signals elevated near-term tail risks. Meanwhile, already jittery tech sentiment and volatility could turn on a dime after Micron’s earnings tomorrow. The chipmaker has been the largest contributor to S&P 500 gains this year, while technology stocks make up each of the index’s 10 biggest drivers of returns.

“Some of the recent performance in stocks has been highly speculative, fueled by a passion from retail investors for short-term gains,” Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “We may not like it this morning, but actually it’s healthy behavior.

The market selloff “is largely a blip, but it is tapping a real and more fundamental anxiety,” said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “The blip part: it is a single piece of local trade press, landing into a jumpy tape and a day before a nervous Micron print, on a trade that is about as crowded and as priced-for-perfection as anything in the market.

One regular buyer of stocks, the corporates themselves, are exiting for the time being. Goldman’s Vani Ranganath estimates approximately 65% of companies have entered their blackout window ahead of 2Q results.

For the AI trade, attention is now shifting to Micron’s quarterly results on Wednesday after the stock rallied more than 300% since January.

“The real test is Micron,” said Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital. “I would watch the rate of change in pricing and any change to capex or bit-supply guidance far more closely than the headline beat or miss.”

Fed’s Goolsbee said he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether all the factors driving prices up are temporary. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer kicked off talks with Indian officials this week as both sides stepped up efforts to resolve the remaining differences holding up an interim trade agreement.

In other assets, currency traders are on high alert for intervention after further weakness in the yen. Gold slides, with Deutsche Bank following Goldman in cutting price forecasts for the metal.

European equities fell sharply at the open on Tuesday: the Stoxx 600 falls 1.1% to 632.10, with mining and technology shares leading declines while health care and food beverage stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Porsche shares rise as much as 1.8%, erasing early declines after the German luxury carmaker confirmed its forecast for the 2026 financial year
• Basic resources stocks are falling the most in the Stoxx Europe 600, with the sector index down as much as 4.6%, as metals fell across the board on inflationary concerns and progress of peace talks
• Hermes shares fall as much as 2.9%, extending its drop to 11% over the past three sessions, after HSBC downgraded its rating on the Birkin bag maker to hold from buy
• Epiroc drops as much as 5.6%, the most in three months, as UBS downgrades the Swedish mining-equipment maker to sell from neutral and says its valuation “has gone too far”
• Signify plunges as much as 18% after the Dutch lighting manufacturer announced new medium-term targets and an updated dividend policy that analysts say would mean big cuts to shareholder payouts
• Telecom Plus shares plunge as much as 33%, sending shares to their lowest level since 2012. The company’s new five-year plan will see it invest with the ambition of improving growth and the quality of earning
• Dometic declines as much as 11%, the most since March, with Danske Bank cautioning its upcoming 2Q report will be held back by tough US markets for its RV and marine divisions

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell reversing the previous session’s gains as a selloff in technology shares weighed on regional markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Most of the region’s major markets were in the red, led by declines in South Korea, Japan and China. A sub-gauge of information technology shares slid as much as 6.1%, after rallying 2.3% on Monday. South Korean stocks tumbled 10% from a record high as investors dumped chip heavyweights on concerns that the rally has become overstretched, prompting the local exchange to briefly halt program selling. Japanese equities slipped as some AI-related stocks fell following a selloff in US tech megacaps.

“I think our Asian markets are tracking a rotation already underway in the US rather than a fresh risk-off move,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. “Hyperscalers have been leading the pullback on AI capex concerns and negative cash flow concerns.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.2% although the yen takes top place among the G-10 currencies, climbing a few pips against the greenback. The Aussie dollar is the weakest, falling 0.7%.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve with gains led by front-end and belly, as oil steadies and stock futures slump after a selloff in Korean chipmakers stoked concerns about the artificial intelligence trade. US yields richer by as much as 4bp across front-end and belly with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp and 3bp on the day; 10-year is around 4.48%, 3bp richer on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by around 1bp: German and UK 10-year yields falling 3 basis points each. SpaceX shares fell to the lowest level since their first day of trading ahead of a potential jumbo investment-grade bond sale that could be announced Tuesday. Focal points of US session also include June preliminary PMIs and a 2-year note auction. This week’s Treasury auctions begin at 1pm New York time with $69 billion 2-year note sale, to be followed by 5- and 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday; WI 2-year yield near 4.20% is ~13bp cheaper than the May auction, which stopped on the screws.

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1% to around $77 a barrel. Other assets have been caught up in the equity selloff with spot silver down over 4% and Bitcoin dropping 3%.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), June preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions indexes (10am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 9.99%, its steepest drop in more than three months, on Tuesday as overseas investors sold chipmakers following regulatory signals that the sector’s rally had gotten overheated. RTRS
• South Korea’s retail investors are ploughing profits from a world-beating stock market into an overheated property sector, confounding government efforts to cool real estate demand. FT
• Iran said $12 billion of its frozen funds were set to be released as part of ongoing talks with the US, with the two sides broadly signaling progress in negotiations to formally end their war. BBG
• The Trump administration and Qatar have warned the EU that it faces a gas supply crunch that would force up prices unless Brussels rewrites planned rules on methane emissions. BBG
• The yen erased losses after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she spoke with Scott Bessent and that they agreed that “bold action” may be needed. Traders are on high alert for intervention. BBG
• Euro-area business activity shrank less than anticipated in June. S&P Global’s Composite PMI rose to 49.5 from 48.5, topping estimates but remaining below the 50 mark that indicates growth. BBG
• The UK’s economy contracted for a second consecutive month, with its PMI slipping to a 14-month low. BBG
• The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee told American Public Media’s Marketplace he remains concerned about inflation and questioned whether price pressures will persist after temporary shocks have dissipated. BBG
• TSLA logged a more than twofold jump in European monthly sales in May as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker continues to rebuild strength in a region where Chinese rivals are gaining ground. WSJ
• US Senate passes bipartisan affordable housing bill.

Iran War Latest 

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said “if the other party does not fulfill its obligations, we should not be expected to unilaterally fulfill our obligations”, Iran International reported.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said defensive capabilities and missiles will never be a topic of discussion. US commitment regarding Lebanon is completely clear.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said quadrilateral talks were stopped early in Switzerland due to the witnessing of US threats. Thereafter, exchanges were via a mediator, Mehr reported.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran has no plans to let IAEA inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in the conflict.
• Iranian President, ahead of trip to Pakistan, said Iran is seeking the full implementation of the clauses that have been signed within the framework of international law, Nour News reported.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will be administered by Iran according to international law.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said in phone call to Turkish President Erdogan on Monday that Iran is ready to pursue diplomacy as per international law.
• Iran Central Bank Governor said Tehran is not obliged to purchase US agricultural goods under current agreements, and states that remaining frozen assets can be used to buy non-sanctioned goods beyond essential items, according to Tasnim.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Baghdad next Sunday”, Al Mayadeen reported citing sources; The meeting will include a briefing on the progress of the talks in Switzerland and the preparations.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said “America has issued the necessary license for the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products”, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iranian Ambassador to the UN said any further attacks on Lebanon would be a red line.
• Iranian Ambassador to the UN said Hormuz talks will be held with Oman.
• Iranian Ambassador to the UN said there has been good progress in negotiations with the US.
• “Sources indicate that the Iranian Foreign Minister [Araghchi] will hold separate talks with Pakistani officials”, Al Hadath reported.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister said Iranian negotiators reaffirmed their commitment to international law and to ensuring safe, toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oman’s Foreign Minister meets with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf, with the officials discussing regional stability and Strait of Hormuz.
• Shipping data cited by Al-Arabia showed at least 20 ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
• One person reportedly killed by Israeli gunfire in a southern Lebanese town, according to Lebanese Civil Defense and a security source – timing unclear.
• Senior US official tells Al Jazeera that talks between Lebanon and Israel will continue to advance comprehensive peace and a security agreement between the two countries.
• Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said Israel must act alone against Iran’s nuclear program and must maintain military freedom in Lebanon, hopes withdrawal from southern Lebanon will not happen and will do everything to convince PM Netanyahu.
• Israel military shells and fires at Khan Yunis in Gaza, according to Fars News Agency.
• Israel’s PM, Defence Minister and Military Chief said Israeli military will continue to act to neutralise threats to soldiers and citizens, demolish terrorist infrastructure, and maintain security zone in southern Lebanon, according to a joint statement. Israel’s leadership reaffirms that the security of Israeli citizens and IDF troops will remain its overriding priority, with no room for compromise.
• Israeli forces reportedly violate Syrian territory, conducting house searches in southern outskirts of Quneitra governorate.
• US-Iran technical talks in Burgenstock had a “breakthrough”, talks proceed seemingly in a positive direction, Journalist Mallick reported.
• US President Trump, on Israel and Lebanon, said “we’ll take a look at it”; said he gets problems solved fast, including with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
• US President Trump said if Iran doesn’t stick to agreement, he will do what he has to do. As long as Iran respects us, we are not going to have any trouble. Could restart the blockade quickly if needed.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued with initial choppy price action following the mixed performance stateside, where participants reflected on the progress in US-Iran talks, but communication stocks and the Nasdaq Comp underperformed. KOSPI, -6.9%, led the sell off, moving to a test of 8.5k to the downside. ASX 200 traded little changed for most of the session amid a lack of major fresh catalysts overnight and as the strength in financials and defensives offset the losses in the tech and commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index briefly climbing to a fresh record high before reversing course, and is on track to snap its 8-day win streak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the lacklustre mood in the region and the absence of any major fresh catalysts, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured by losses in miners, and digital platforms stocks amid a rotation out of hyperscalers into semiconductors.

Top Asian News

• China’s MOFCOM announces measures to stimulate the auto after-sales market; to support the integration and upgrading of the car rental industry.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said will take appropriate action against FX moves if needed.
• Canada awarded Australia a USD 1.75bln contract for its over-the-horizon radar system, boosting Arctic early warning capabilities, and which marks Australia’s largest ever defence export.
• Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jun) 52.50.
• Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 54.9 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 54.5).
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 51.2 (Prev. 50.7).
• Blackstone (BX) President and COO Gray told Nikkei that the firm plans to invest USD 30bln in Japanese data center development over the next three to five years.

Large losses in Kospi (-9.9%) crept through to Europe (STOXX 600 -1%) with EU tech leading the losses. No specific headline driver for overnight losses in a typical non-conflict risk-off move (stocks/oil down, fixed/havens bid). As you would expect, South Korean heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix (which account for over 50% of the index) led the declines, both falling 12%. Some analysts point out the mechanical rebalancing from leveraged ETFs exacerbated losses with a large share of the vehicle used to gain Kospi exposure coming as leveraged ETFs. Others point out positioning into Micron earnings due after the close on Wednesday. Given the above, Tech is the worst sectoral performer (bar Basic Resources), the sector posting losses in excess of 3%. The highest weighted chip constituents ASML -5% (Highest weighted in Europe+Tech Sector), Prosus -2.1% and STMicroelectronics -7.3%. For Basic resources, the sector has been dragged lower by declines in metals (Gold -2.5%, Silver -5.5%).

Top European News

• German Chancellor Merz outlines his support for a capital-based pension system, saying it “strengthens the system”.
• German Chancellor Merz confirms plan to push forward with all pension reform proposals.
• Britain’s biggest business lobby group, CBI, said UK firms are not seeking another Brexit referendum and have little interest in rejoining a customs union with the EU, according to FT.
• UK’s Burnham will seek to soothe markets as he marches on number 10 and will use a speech next week to pledge to grow the economy and commit to Labour’s fiscal rules, according to The Times. Burnham is considering Miliband, Streeting and Mahmood for Chancellor.

FX

• G10s are entirely lower against the Buck (bar JPY), as USD attracts haven demand in a textbook risk-off market move (stocks/oil down, fixed/havens bid), signalling the market is gradually moving away from geopolitical trade. As you would expect, Antipodeans underperforms, Aussie fares the worst as metals suffer from the strong Buck, while JPY is the only currency stronger vs the USD after a sharp 30pip move lower as it sits towards 2024 highs.
• DXY firmer by 0.2% as it attracts haven demand amid tech weakness in Kospi/NQ (see equities at 09:25 BST for analysis). In terms of domestic newsflow, Fed’s Goolsbee said services inflation was “a little disturbing”. The data docket is light but begins to pick up today (ADP weekly + PMIs due) heading into Thursday’s GDP revisions and PCE data. DXY surpassed Friday’s high of 101.12, now looks to the May peak just below 102.
• JPY continues to whipsaw around multi-year lows against the Buck, with USD/JPY towards 161.50-162. Japanese officials continue attempts to bolster the Yen, but continue unsuccessful with the Greenback bid. Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama confirmed she spoke with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Monday. Elsewhere, APAC trade saw stronger flash PMI data and mixed results of the latest 5yr JGB auction.
• GBP is weaker and tracks the firmer Buck with participants awaiting further updates from a likely incoming Burnham premiership. Despite Gilts continuing to outperform peers on optimistic Burnham reporting (Streeting added to Chancellor candidates/Burnham said to announce commitment to Fiscal rules), Miliband still in the picture for Chancellor is viewed by Sterling traders as an unwelcome option. As such, GBP awaits further press reporting and tracks the Buck with Cable remaining at 1.32, EUR/GBP unchanged. ING this morning writes “Regardless of politics, we keep favouring higher EUR/GBP on the back of a dovish view (no hikes) on the Bank of England”. EZ/UK PMIs were mixed (see fixed income for analysis), EUR saw fleeting strength on the French figure, which indicated a cooling of cost pressures; a move which proved fleeting as the German services and composite metric cooled (Some respondents’ answers did not eclipse the signing of the US-Iran MoU).

Fixed Income

• A firmer start for fixed income as the complex benefits from the softer energy environment, though the influence of this has diminished amid recent updates from Iran, and the weak risk tone as the KOSPI closed lower by 9.9% and has weighed on European price action, with the European Tech sector lower by over 3%.
• USTs firmer by seven ticks in 109-06+ to 109-14+ confines, towards but just off highs as the mentioned energy move off lows has seemingly formed a ceiling in fixed or now at least. Ahead, we have the region’s Flash PMIs before 2yr supply. A tap that should benefit from a number of factors.
• Bunds firmer by just over 10 ticks and are just under that from the 126.74 high. Initially moving on the above, in-line with peers and with no real reaction to the latest pension reform commentary.
• The main updates, aside from the APAC moves, today have been Flash PMIs for June. Firstly, France’s figures sparked some modest EGB pressure as the components all came in firmer than expected. Internal commentary pointed to a possible peak in price pressures. Thereafter, Germany was below consensus but caveated by the majority of responses coming in before the MoU signing. Nonetheless, encouragingly, the series showed that inflationary pressures had started to ease off.
• Finally, the EZ figure was mixed and again most responses came before the MoU. But, it already showed that lower energy prices were filtering through to businesses with inputs cost rates and selling price inflation moving lower in June. Again, pointing to a potential price spike peak.
• Overall, the data chimes with those who believe that expectations for further ECB tightening are overdone. A point arguably added to by the pertinent commentary from President Lagarde on Monday. As such, upcoming hard and survey data will be scoured for confirmation that prices may have peaked which, alongside the stagnation in activity, may well see a dovish repricing in the period ahead.
• Gilts echoed the above, higher by 35 ticks at best and to a new WTD high of 89.19. Today’s strength also comes from reporting that Burnham will next week give a speech outlining his commitment to the fiscal rules; however, The Times briefing notes that Miliband remains in consideration to be Chancellor, a point that potentially caps any further upside.
• PMIs for the region were weak, though price commentary was also welcome and chimes with the view that the BoE is on hold for the foreseeable.
• The Netherlands sold EUR 1.98bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 3.50% 2056 DSL Bond: avg. yield 3.52% (prev. 3.51%).
• Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.11x (prev. 3.22x), average yield 1.905% (prev. 2.024%).
• Germany sells EUR 3.807bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.90x (prev. 1.58x), average yield 2.57% (prev. 2.59%), retention 23.86% (prev. 22.80%)

Commodities

• Geopolitical newsflow remains focused on the US-Iran talks, and the sometimes mixed commentary filtering out from the respective officials. As it stands, there does not appear to be any cause for concern, with President Trump and VP Vance both sounding positive about the initial talks; the Iranian side also said good progress has been made. However, looking between the lines reveals some contradictory remarks. On Monday, VP Vance said that Iran would allow the IAEA to inspect nuclear facilities. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that there are no plans to let inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in the conflict; the nuance of “sites targeted in the conflict”, potentially offers some hints to the inner workings of the proceedings between the US and Iran. Do note that the Iranian President is visiting Pakistan today.
• The biggest risk to the talks is Israeli actions in Lebanon. Several high-ranking Israeli officials have suggested that Israel will continue its military operations in Lebanon. Comments which come ahead of the US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks, which are set to begin today. A confab which spans over a couple of days, and focuses on finalising “pilot zones” within southern Lebanon and long-lasting peace.
• Crude benchmarks traded sideways for much of the APAC session, before then moving to lows heading into the European cash open. Since, WTI and Brent have bounced a touch off lows, to currently trade towards the mid-point of the days range. In more detail, WTI Aug’26 (-0.5%) sits within a USD 72.48-74.45/bbl range and Brent Aug’26 (-0.6%) holds within a 76.43-78.23/bbl range.
• Spot gold (-2%) extends lower amidst the continued hawkish mood in markets, which have kept the USD elevated. For gold specifically, a number of sell-side banks have cut their price forecasts for spot gold. On Monday, Goldman Sachs cut their year-end target to USD 4,900/oz (prev. USD 5,200/oz). Its model focused on the Fed, whereby every 50bps worth of easing adds c. USD 120/oz of support to spot gold. Most recently, Deutsche Bank cut its gold forecast by 22%. Today, the yellow metal holds at the bottom end of a USD 4,091 to 4,198/oz range; it may find support at a recent low of USD 4,023/oz, if the pressure continues.
• Base metals follow the downbeat risk tone seen across broader markets. 3M LME copper is lower by c. 1.8% and holds within a USD 13,396.35-13,671/t range.
• Rabobank lowers its Q3 Brent price forecast to USD 79/bbl (from USD 103/bbl), and Q4 to USD 78/bbl (from USD 93/bbl); sees Brent averaging USD 74.50/bbl in 2027, and USD 71/bbl in 2028.
• US Department of Agriculture reported a new case of screwworm in a Texas goat, taking total number of domestic detections to 16 cases.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said inflation is well above target and going the wrong way, adds need evidence this inflation is temporary and services inflation is a little disturbing. said:. We haven’t had stagflation shock, and the job market has been stable. Fed Chair Warsh’s approach is let’s have less speculation about rates, less forward guidance, while Goolsbee said he is pretty sympathetic to that approach.
• ECB’s Kazimir said they are data-dependent, but the direction for policy is clear.
• ECB’s Lane said that inflation risks being above 2% for some time; increase in energy prices is expected to keep inflation well above target into H1’27. Remains attentive to both sides of the outlook. Energy shock is feeding through to broader inflation. labour market resilience, solid household balance sheets and public investment should support activity.
• ECB’s Escriva said service-sector inflation is showing very strong persistence.

Geopolitics

• Russia and Ukraine may swap Prisoners of War soon, TASS reported.
• Ukraine’s capital Kyiv issues an air raid alerts and authorities ask people to seek shelter.
• North Korea leader Kim Jong-un said North Korea will further assert its status and role as a nuclear power, adds will accelerate broader plans, enhance nuclear arms technology and develop water deterrence capabilities. accused US and South Korea carrying out the most dangerous provocations through nuclear war machinery. To accelerate building of 10,000-ton strategic guided missile cruiser.
• China’s Beihai Maritime Safety Administration announced that parts of the Beibu Gulf will be closed to navigation due to military training from 11:00-12:00 Beijing time on June 23rd.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54.6, prior 55.1
• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.1, prior 50.7
• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.1, prior 51.5
• 10:00 am: Jun Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 8, prior 13

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

When I started in financial markets in 1995, Alan Greenspan was a towering presence and arguably the first Fed Chair to become a global rockstar. At that point, he was eight years into what would become a 19-year tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve. However, my own memories pale in comparison to those of my colleague Peter Hooper. Peter joined the Fed in 1973, later moving to DB in 1999, and worked closely with Greenspan for over 50 years.

Peter has written a thoughtful remembrance following Greenspan’s passing yesterday at the age of 100. Drawing on first-hand experience as a colleague at the Federal Reserve and later recruiting him to be an adviser at Deutsche Bank, Peter highlights Greenspan’s intense curiosity, instinct for data and markets, and ability to identify structural shifts such as the 1990s productivity boom. In many ways, Greenspan was ahead of the data—something Kevin Warsh is attempting to emulate today—so there are clear parallels between the eras. It is a personal and insightful tribute from someone who had a ringside seat throughout Greenspan’s remarkable career, and it is well worth reading in full on the DB Research Institute site.

Moving onto the remembering another landmark in history, 10 years ago today, those of us on this island marched to the polls to decide whether we wanted to stay in the EU or not. Ironically, I had a long weekend planned in the French Alps and left for the airport immediately after voting and arrived to a fierce thunderstorm in the mountains and news that the UK had voted to leave. It all felt fairly biblical and instead of enjoying a break I spent all night and the next 3 days glued to my work laptop.

To mark the anniversary Sanjay and Shreyas have published a piece entitled “Brexit 10 years on: What’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?” See it here ahead of our first in-person Deutsche Bank Research Institute event on Thursday reviewing the topic and all things UK related given the huge events of recent days. We may still be able to squeeze you in.

The irony around the anniversary is that the shadow of Brexit partly claimed another UK Prime Minister yesterday with Keir Starmer resigning and heralding in what will be the 7th Prime Minister in that subsequent decade. The only viable candidate now seems to be Andy Burnham, who won last week’s by-election in Makerfield, after rival challenger Wes Streeting endorsed him yesterday to be leader. So, although nominations for the Labour leadership are set to open on July 9, currently it looks highly likely that Andy Burnham is the only candidate who would get more than 20% of MPs backing him to stand, meaning that a formal contest would be avoided. That’s reminiscent of when Labour last changed leaders in government back in 2007, when Chancellor Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair without a contest. Under this timetable, Burnham could become the PM as soon as mid-July.

Against this backdrop, UK assets responded relatively positively, as it looks like a period of extended uncertainty and a potential summer leadership contest have been removed. Speculation that Streeting may get the job of Chancellor was seen as a positive as well given his more moderate tendencies.  The pound sterling was the strongest performing G10 currency on the day, up +0.14% against the US Dollar, whilst yields on 2yr (-4.5bps) and 10yr (-3.4bps) gilts moved in line with their European counterparts inspite of the political upheaval. Moreover, the FTSE 100 was up +0.72%, again similar to the STOXX 600’s +0.58% advance.

Another G7 country in the news is Japan and this morning the currency is fairly flat after seeing a strong spike yesterday afternoon London time after it got within a whisker of hitting 40-year lows. It hit 161.93 versus a low of 161.96 in July 2024. Beyond that you have to go back to December 1986 to see weaker levels. There was speculation over imminent BoJ intervention with JNN reporting an online emergency meeting between Finance Minster Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday. This meeting has been confirmed by Katayama this morning, who stated that the US and Japan are aligned on FX policy. This morning it’s hovering remarkably quietly at 161.60 given all the noise.

Less quiet are Asian equities which are falling on tech weakness. The KOSPI (-6.41%) is leading the declines, followed by the Nikkei (-1.66%), Hang Seng (-1.16%), Shanghai Composite (-0.37%) and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.26%). S&P 500 (-0.66%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.19%) futures are also weak with the tech sell-off dominating.  

Early morning data showed that Japan’s private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in June, driven by strong manufacturing output and a return to growth in the services sector, although firms faced the sharpest rise in input costs in nearly four years. The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in June while the services PMI climbed to 51.8 from 50.0, indicating a renewed expansion in business activity after stagnating in May. As a result, the flash composite PMI, advanced to 52.5 from 51.1, marking the strongest pace of overall private-sector growth since March.

This all follows mixed markets yesterday, as tech worries overpowered investor optimism about progress in the US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. So that meant the S&P 500 slipped -0.37%, with the Nasdaq (-1.32%) and Magnificent 7 (-2.17%) posting even steeper losses, dragged down by declines by Alphabet (-4.99%) and Amazon (-4.75%).

Those equity losses were compounded by the latest rise in Treasury yields yesterday, as investors continued to price in a more hawkish Fed. Indeed, yesterday saw markets price in a 98% chance of a rate hike by the September meeting (up from 93% on Friday), and the 2yr yield (+4.8bps) closed at a 16-month high of 4.23%. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield was up +5.5bps to 4.51%, and significantly, the 10yr real yield (+8.0bps) hit a one-year high of 2.26%. That rise in real yields was something Henry looked at in a note yesterday (link here), exploring why markets haven’t rallied as much as might have been expected given the US-Iran deal and the slump in oil prices in the last two weeks.

Speaking of the Iran war, there were fresh signs of progress in the negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance saying that the weekend talks were “very, very good”. That follows comments from the Iranian side, who had previously said in the small hours of Monday that there’d been major progress to end the war in Lebanon. Moreover, the US issued a 60-day sanctions waiver to allow Iran to sell its oil on the international market, which was seen as one of Tehran’s demands for implementing last week’s interim deal. So that backdrop saw oil prices come down, with Brent crude (-3.31%) closing at a 3-month low of $77.90/bbl, whilst WTI (-2.32%) also fell to $74.82/bbl.

Turning back to Europe, ahead of this morning’s flash PMIs, ECB President Lagarde said yesterday that she saw no more need for the ECB to have a “forceful response” to the Iran War. In comments to lawmakers, Lagarde said she saw inflation returning to target over the medium term, saying that the ECB saw “no evidence yet of de-anchoring of inflation expectations or second-round effects” that warrants a “more forceful policy response at this stage.” This contrasted with some of the more hawkish messaging from the ECB last week, which saw markets dial up their conviction of further tightening this year.

Those comments supported a rally in European government bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.4bps), OATs (-3.4bps) and BTPs (-4.3bps) all coming down. And there were larger declines at the front-end, with the 2yr German yield down -4.4bps as investors dialled back the likelihood of aggressive ECB rate cuts this year. Indeed, markets were pricing 32bps of ECB hikes by the December meeting at the close, down -4.5bps on the previous day. Otherwise, equities also rose, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) making a fresh gain, while the DAX (+0.62%) also rose. The CAC (-0.25%) struggled again and has been struggling this year largely due to its outsized luxury stocks weighting.  

To the day ahead now, we’ll get June flash PMIs for the US, UK, Eurozone, Germany, and France. We’ll also see US June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, France June business confidence and May retail sales. Earnings include FedEx and Carnival.

Ukraine is making it clear they are seeking to “bring the war to Russia” – and this is what’s behind the recent series of massive Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, which has wreaked havoc particularly on energy refineries, and air travel for the region. That Ukraine desperately wants to gain back what leverage they are able to is fully understandable, however, that NATO is backing such actions against a nuclear-armed superpower constitutes madness. 

Aside from covert targeting assistance, the UK is taking things in a more overt direction, having reportedly just tested missiles with a range of 300 miles which is intended to be sent to Ukraine’s military. 

The British missile platform has the capability of delivering 500-pound warhead to Moscow.

The Telegraph offers some further details regarding context to the major Ukraine support program in the following:

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) challenged firms to build long-range strike weapons that can fly at more than 370mph, cost about £400,000 each and can be built at a pace of 20 a month.

Some 27 bids from industry were made with Dragon’s Den-style pitches held last February, before six UK companies were awarded contracts worth around £5m each to design prototypes for testing in just seven months.

By last December, only three suppliers remained: MBDA UK, which makes the Storm Shadow stealth missile, MGI Engineering, a UK small or medium-sized enterprise (SME) with a background in Formula 1 technology, and Rotron Aerospace, another UK SME with a history of working with the MoD.

And the publication confirms that “New systems that can attack targets more than 300 miles away have been tested at a range in the Hebrides, with further trials taking place in the UK over the coming months.”

For missiles of this range and power, this is a relatively cheap price tag, and can apparently be rapid-produced at that.

UK Armed Forces Minister Louise Sandher-Jones has said the new missiles are intended to “complement” the Storm Shadow cruise missiles London sends to Ukraine.

“The UK stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine, and we will continue to provide the support it needs to defend itself against Russian aggression,” she stated. “Project Brakestop shows what happens when we combine that commitment with the talent and ingenuity of British industry.”

Ukraine has in tandem all along been advancing its domestic-developed long-range drones:

The open and brazen admission that these future systems could soon be use to directly target the Russian capital would be an insane escalation by NATO. Once NATO and Western systems begin blowing up buildings in Moscow, suddenly direct Russian military retaliatory action against Europe gets much closer to becoming a reality. Again, this is sheer madness and lunacy by some of Europe’s most hawkish leaders.

Among the biggest latest developments in the immediate wake of the Switzerland meeting is that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has announced an agreement has been reached for the United States to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

It also comes after the US Treasury Department announced temporary sanctions relief, namely freeing up Iranian oil and petrochemical sales until August 1st. Concerning the frozen asset partial release, Tehran is now emphasizing that it alone will decide how the funds will be used.

But this may be another area where the headlines and declarations are too far out front, given Washington has sought to impose some caveats which likely remain unacceptable to the Iranians side. For example Vice President JD Vance made clear his stance Monday that Iranian assets had not yet been unfrozen as part of the deal, describing that if there were, they must be limited in use and implementation – to purchase US agricultural goods. He has emphasized – perhaps wishing to address American domestic criticisms – that the funds would not be used to support terrorism.

Ali Bahreini, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, has already firmly rejected the soybean plan, saying at a UN press briefing, “Iran is the only country who will decide what to do with its assets, which are going to be defrozen.”

In total a whopping $50 billion could eventually be released under the MoU framework – something which will drive Republican hawsk mad. Al Jazeera reports Tuesday, citing the Iranian side: 

A spokesperson said the agreement would allow Iran access to previously frozen assets, although the US says restrictions would remain in place under the arrangement.

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, two separate tranches of $6bn were originally agreed in Doha, with the final signing ceremony intended to take place in Switzerland. The Iranian spokesperson now says that process has been completed.

Under the reported framework, an initial $12bn in Iranian funds would be released. During the 60-day negotiation period, a further $12bn could be unlocked. If the parties ultimately reach a final agreement, the value of sanctions relief and released funds could reportedly rise to as much as $50bn.

Another point of disagreement remains the entry of IAEA nuclear inspectors into the Islamic Republic. Vance had hailed Tehran already agreed to this, while Iran’s leaders are in effect saying not so fast. It’s but one of several major contradictions in public rhetoric coming from either side in the wake of the top-level round one meeting in Switzerland.

Something interesting – which Washington may or may not be on board with – is that Tehran is now signaling openness to Russia hosting its enriched nuclear material.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is “fully” open to commercial shipping and that large volumes of oil have been transported through the waterway in recent days, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 23, 2026

Al Arabiya reports that Iran’s aforementioned UN ambassador says “transferring enriched uranium to Russia is under consideration.“ This could indeed be enough to satisfy President Trump, considering it would be a ‘lesser evil’ option if indeed the Iranians are actually ready for such a plan (which Moscow has offered several times to facilitate over the past year).

Lebanon is another issue which could threaten to unravel all the progress made thus far, but reports cite a ‘cautious calm’ across the south, but with some limited, sporadic exchanges of fire.

One correspondent on the ground reports, “Here in Tyre, people driving across the city this morning are picking up bits of rubble, starting to clear things out and searching for what they can salvage among their destroyed homes and businesses. That is what people are using this moment of calm for.”

However, there’s been reports of at least two new Lebanese deaths. In one instance Lebanese national media indicated “A young man was killed and two others were injured” when Israeli soldiers “opened machine gun fire in their direction while they were standing near an excavator which was clearing a road” in a locality near the town of Nabatieh – per the National News Agency. Hezbollah is saying Tuesday that this violates the ceasefire agreement.

The situation on Monday was such that the Iranian delegation almost quit the Sunday-Monday talks completely, Iran’s top negotiator has explained:

Iran’s Ghalibaf:

In the middle of the discussions, I learned that Trump had made threatening remarks regarding our president, the negotiating team, and possible attacks on our territory.

I told Vance: “We are here engaged in talks, and according to the signed understanding,… pic.twitter.com/Oi0jKrXf19

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 22, 2026

*  *  *

Below are some latest developments on the US-Iran peace front via Middle East Eye:

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said an agreement had been reached to release $12bn in frozen Iranian assets.
• The US Treasury Department announced temporary sanctions relief allowing Iranian oil and petrochemical sales until 1 August.
• Washington said the measures follow Iran’s commitment to permit international nuclear inspections after intensive talks in Switzerland.
• President Donald Trump said released Iranian funds would be used to purchase food and agricultural products from US farmers.
• Iran’s Central Bank rejected Trump’s comments, saying Tehran is under no obligation to spend released funds on American goods.
• Iranian officials said technical negotiations with the United States have concluded and the process is entering a new phase.
• President Masoud Pezeshkian said the effectiveness of future talks depends on all sides fully implementing their commitments.
• A US official said Centcom has launched a monitoring mechanism in Lebanon to provide American officials with assessments of fighting on the ground.
• Israeli officials reiterated that military operations in Lebanon would continue despite ongoing diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran.
• Markets and regional observers continued to focus on sanctions implementation, Hormuz shipping activity and the durability of the broader agreement.

Yet more drone attacks sent by Ukraine’s military has crippled much of the infrastructure of the Crimean peninsula. Reuters is confirming significant power outages, while some regional reports say as much as half of all Crimea is without power Tuesday.

One of the regional publications specified that “Yevpatoria, Saki, Krasnoperekopsk, Dzhankoy, and surrounding areas were left without electricity, reports the Ukrainian service of Radio Svoboda.”

“Preliminary, electricity supply is planned to be restored within 24 hours” – after several facilities in Crimea suffered direct hits by inbound drones. Fires have been witnessed at at railway and military facilities. Importantly, a large fire is being reported at a thermal power plant in Kerch, which left the greatest impact in terms of the widespread regional blackout:

A strike on a power plant caused major power outages across Crimea, leaving about half the peninsula without electricity. pic.twitter.com/2yfCvAvhFv

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 23, 2026

Telegram channel “Crimean Wind” has written, “The CHP plant fire in Kerch is confirmed; the fire spread to a reservoir. The monitoring group, relying on satellite imagery, records a smoke plume about 47 kilometers long.”

According to more: “A strike on an oil depot, a TPP-Terminal, port infrastructure, and facilities in the area of Henichesk and the Arabat Spit is also reported.”

It was only two days ago, on June 21, that an oil depot in the Crimean city of Kerch was attacked, it is reportedly still burning, with reports of fires at the sprawling terminal complex’s Kavkaz port.

Life for millions in Crimea is already seriously strained, after those prior Sunday attacks resulted in the most severe fuel restrictions imposed on the population since the war began over four years ago.

Crimean Governor Sergey Aksyonov had previously confirmed the fuel crisis for the whole region, saying, “Today, June 21, starting from 09:00 am, fuel sales at Crimean petrol stations have been suspended” – though he added that fuel would only be sold to state enterprises.

He made clear in a Telegram post that starting Sunday morning local time gas stations across the peninsula would stop selling fuel to individuals and businesses. All cash, card and fuel coupons were immediately halted.

Relentless, nightly drone attacks making life harder on common Russians – in tandem to the Ukrainian population also having suffered immensely under Russia’s bombs and drones…

Overnight, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched yet another large-scale drone attack against Russian-occupied Crimea, targeting military sites and energy infrastructure near the Kerch Strait. pic.twitter.com/7ddIVmjkAz

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 23, 2026

Ukraine’s President Zelensky boasted of the weekend attacks, stating on social media that “Facilities on both sides of the Crimean Bridge were hit: maritime logistics used to transport oil in the Krasnodar region and an oil depot in temporarily occupied Kerch.”

BBC had separately earlier reported that Kiev “hit a logistics facility for oil transportation in Russia’s Krasnodar region, which lies adjacent to Crimea across the Kerch Strait. Local authorities said one person had been killed on a passenger ferry.”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

There’s having no discernment, and then there’s this…

A three-year-old boy remains in critical but stable condition at Addenbrooke’s Hospital after being thrown into a crocodile enclosure at a Cambridgeshire zoo. His alleged attacker, a 30-year-old man from Norfolk with reported learning difficulties, was quickly released on bail with his identity withheld from the public, sparking backlash. In the middle of this horror, discount retailer Wowcher blasted out an email urging customers to “Snap up these deals quicker than a croc can catch a kid.”

Yes, really.

What the actual f @wowcher? pic.twitter.com/v7B83k8sch

— Paul O’Brien (@PaulOBrien) June 20, 2026

The tone-deaf marketing stunt has triggered widespread revulsion, forcing the company into a grovelling “unreserved” apology while exposing yet another layer of institutional detachment from real human suffering.

The attack unfolded on a Thursday afternoon at the family-run Johnsons of Old Hurst zoo near Huntingdon. The boy, who was not known to the suspect, suffered serious injuries including a broken arm, a broken pelvis likely caused by the impact of being thrown, and multiple crocodile bites.

Zoo staff pulled him from the enclosure and administered immediate treatment at the scene. In a moment of extraordinary bravery, Tracey Johnson, wife of zoo owner Andy Johnson, jumped into the crocodile pit to help rescue the child.

Cambridgeshire Police arrested the 30-year-old man on suspicion of attempted murder. He was assessed as unfit for interview and has since been released on bail until 18 September. His identity remains hidden.

The decision to release the suspect on bail while concealing his identity has fuelled intense public anger. Many see it as further evidence of a justice system that prioritises processes and sensitivities over the basic protection of children and the public.

Some media outlets also softened the deliberate nature of the attack by reporting that the boy had “ended up” in the crocodile enclosure rather than stating he was thrown.

Screenshots of the Wowcher email spread rapidly. Fury erupted on social media and community forums. The Norwich Norfolk UK Community Notice Board posted: “Why do wowcher think its ok to use this as a heading on their emails??”

Wowcher apologises ‘unreservedly’ for email appearing to mock crocodile attack on young boyhttps://t.co/Sd1uguKddI

— GB News (@GBNEWS) June 21, 2026

Customers expressed immediate disgust. One described themselves as “now unsubscribed.” Another called the email “disgusting” and added “if that’s real someone needs to be fired.” A third said they had emailed the company with no reply and would “not be using them again for sure, even if its a poor effort at a joke somehow.”

A marketing professional who encountered the email on LinkedIn described it as “tone deaf, clueless, moronic, irresponsible, sick” and expressed disbelief that it had cleared multiple layers of approval. He told the Wowcher marketing team to “take a good, hard look at yourselves” and warned that not every trending moment should be jumped on for reactive marketing.

saw this on linkedin and cannot quite believe this has been approved.

a little boy was seriously injured by a crocodile at cambridgeshire zoo — one man arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.

and @wowcher think this is a brilliant opportunity for reactive marketing.

tone… pic.twitter.com/K9UGtCsb16

— James | open to work arc (@bl0ckjames) June 21, 2026

Wowcher moved swiftly to contain the damage. A spokesman issued the following statement: “We are extremely sorry for an email subject line sent by Wowcher yesterday. The wording was unacceptable. It should never have been written. It was never approved for use. The responsibility sits with us and we are urgently reviewing how our processes failed. We recognise the hurt and distress it has caused, particularly for the young child’s family at this unimaginably difficult time.”

The spokesman continued: “We are reviewing all scheduled marketing content while we urgently strengthen our creative, approval and sign-off safeguards. There is no excuse for this. We apologise unreservedly and will take the necessary steps to make sure this does not happen again.”

The company’s insistence that the email “was never approved for use” has been widely interpreted as an attempt to shift blame onto an individual rather than accept full institutional responsibility for the failure of basic safeguards.

This episode reveals something deeper than one bad subject line. It shows how insulated people have become. They operate in environments where real events – especially tragedies involving children – are treated as abstract content or “trending moments” rather than visceral realities that demand basic human restraint.

A child fighting for his life after being thrown to crocodiles becomes raw material for a flippant pun about deals. The suffering is unreal to them, something happening to other people in another sphere they can comment on or monetise without consequence.

It reflects a wider modernity that strips away moral grounding and discernment. When everything is content, empathy atrophies. People in these bubbles no longer instinctively recoil from turning horror into marketing copy because the horror never feels fully real to them.

They have no skin in the game, no direct encounter with the raw aftermath that families and communities actually endure. The result is not just bad taste but a gradual hollowing out of the shared humanity that once made such behaviour unthinkable.

The same pattern appears elsewhere: institutions that release individuals accused of extreme violence with minimal transparency, media that softens language around attacks on children, and corporations that later issue polished apologies while claiming the offending material “was never approved.”

All of it stems from the same root – a culture that has grown comfortable treating real human pain as distant, manageable, and ultimately secondary to process, narrative, or engagement.

A society that loses the capacity to recognise horror when it stares it in the face – whether in a justice decision, a media report, or even a marketing email – has already surrendered something essential.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Building on last week’s theme of “early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary,” Piper Sandler analysts note that the sharp decline in gasoline prices at the pump is beginning to lift consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-income households. Their proprietary daily confidence data suggest the rebound is still in the early innings, but the direction is clear: cheaper gas is easing pressure on working-class folks.

Piper Sandler’s chief global economist and head of the firm’s economics research team, Nancy Lazar, provided clients with three of the most important consumer conclusions of the week as the national average for gas at the pump tumbled due to easing tensions in the Middle East:

1. The steep rollover in gasoline prices triggered a big bounce in PSC’s Daily Confidence Survey last week, with low-end consumers particularly more cheerful.

2. With all daily survey components improving, the observed retail sales aggregate has hooked up.

3. Higher prices weighed on consumers last quarter, according to Kroger & La-ZBoy.

Lazar’s note, titled “The Gasoline Down-Confidence Up Two-Step,” says that cheaper pump prices are now producing consumer tailwinds amid a still-healthy labor market.

She shows that Piper Sandler’s proprietary high-frequency gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment, conducted by Rasmussen Reports, “appears to have bottomed, mirroring the sharp rollover in gasoline prices – adding to economic tailwinds from refunds and healthy labor.”

“The impact of easing pump prices is clear in both confidence and consumption,” Lazar continued in the note.

In markets, she pointed out, “The Russell 2000 and XRT retailing ETF certainly act as if the bottom is in for confidence.”

More consumer sentiment data from Piper’s internal sources show improvement:

The rebound in sentiment could help drive consumers back into retail stores and support spending on experiences…

Great news for the Trump administration, with 136 days until the midterm elections this fall. 

Professional subscribers can read more consumer notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

How long would you need to work to earn $1,000? In Colombia, the answer is roughly 86 hours. In Luxembourg and Iceland, it’s just 16.

Using data from the OECD on average annual wages and Our World in Data’s figures for annual working hours, Visual Capitalist’s Srijaa Chatterjee created this visualization ranking countries by how long it takes the average worker to earn $1,000.

The figures are expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted dollars, which account for differences in local price levels and make incomes more comparable across countries. Taxes are not included.

How Many Hours of Work Earn $1,000?

Workers in the lowest-ranked countries need more than five times as many hours to earn $1,000 as workers in the highest-ranked countries. The gap ranges from 16 hours in Luxembourg and Iceland to 86 hours in Colombia.

The data table below shows the number of hours worked per $1,000 earned by country in purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars:

Europe dominates the top of the ranking. Luxembourg, Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands all require fewer than 20 hours of work to earn $1,000.

For comparison, the average American worker needs about 22 hours to earn $1,000, placing the U.S. among the stronger earners but still behind multiple European economies.

Latin America Earns Less While Working More

Colombia and Mexico sit at the bottom of the ranking, requiring 86 and 78 hours of work, respectively, to earn $1,000. Both figures are more than triple the U.S. level and more than four times higher than Luxembourg’s.

While workers in these countries often log similar or even greater annual hours than workers in richer economies, average wages remain substantially lower.

Research highlighted by Our World in Data finds that workers in lower-income countries tend to work longer hours while generating less income per hour worked. Economists point to lower productivity levels, a larger informal sector, reduced access to capital, and weaker wage growth as contributing factors.

Nordic Countries and Luxembourg Stand Out

At the other end of the spectrum are Luxembourg and the Nordic economies. Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Finland combine relatively high wages with advanced, high-productivity economies.

Analysis from the Becker Friedman Institute and CEPR highlights how strong labor-market institutions, high workforce participation, and substantial investments in education contribute to both high wages and relatively compressed income distributions.

Luxembourg benefits from an especially high concentration of financial and professional services jobs, helping support some of the highest average wage levels in the world.

Why Purchasing Power Matters

The analysis uses purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts wages to reflect differences in local price levels. PPP adjustments allow economists to compare what incomes can actually buy in a specific country rather than relying solely on market exchange rates.

Without PPP adjustments, workers in lower-cost countries could appear poorer than they actually are, and vice versa.

Want to explore wage differences across Europe? Check out Mapped: Average Full-Time Salary in Europe by Country on the Voronoi app.