Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

Florida is seeking to arrest former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over his alleged role in a conspiracy to shoot down and murder three U.S. citizens and one lawful resident aboard two civilian aircraft more than 30 years ago.

The state arrest warrant was announced Monday by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who accused Castro of having spies embedded in America to help carry out the shooting down of two unarmed planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a humanitarian organization that promotes Cubans’ efforts against the country’s long-standing communist regime.

The former Cuban leader, now in his mid-90s, is charged with one count of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder and also faces a parallel, federal indictment by the Department of Justice, announced May 20.

“Raúl Castro ordered the murder of four Floridians in cold blood, and Florida will never stop pursuing accountability for that communist conspiracy,” Uthmeier said in a news release. “The Castro regime’s spies operated in our communities, fed intelligence to Havana, and helped put civilian pilots in the crosshairs of Cuban MiGs.”

The four victims in the planes shot down on Feb. 24, 1996, were Carlos Costa, Pablo Morales, Mario de la Peña, and Armando Alejandre Jr.

According to the affidavit, Castro, who was the minister of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces and first vice president at the time of the incident, was the final decider in authorizing the attack, giving senior military officials an order to “shoot them down at sea when they show up, and those who have the authority are not to consult anyone.”

Cuban spies operating in South Florida’s Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties infiltrated the Brothers to the Rescue organization and reported their flight plans back to Cuban leaders, the news release said.

On the day of the attack, three unarmed Brothers to the Rescue aircraft departed the Opa-Locka Airport in Miami-Dade County. Once they crossed the 24th latitude line, while still outside the island-nation’s territory, Cuban MiGs destroyed two of the civilian Cessnas with missiles, killing the four onboard.

“For thirty years, their families and our Cuban American community have carried this profound loss and refused to let the pursuit of justice fade,” Miami-Dade Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz said in the news release. “Today’s action sends a clear message: the passage of time does not diminish the value of these lives or our responsibility to pursue accountability.”

The news release added that the aircraft were traveling away from Cuba and received no warning before the attack.

Elements of the alleged criminal conspiracy, like the gathering of intel by stateside Cuban spies, occurred in Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties. Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan of the 11th Judicial Circuit, which encompasses Miami-Dade, signed the arrest warrant.

Florida’s Office of Statewide Prosecution has assumed jurisdiction of the ongoing investigation, Uthmeier said, and additional charges against Castro are possible.

“Under President [Donald] Trump’s administration, we’re committed to pursuing every lawful, prosecutable avenue to bring accountability, including parallel federal and state prosecutions,” U.S. Attorney Jason Quiñones said in the news release.

Florida’s arrest warrant against Castro joins the United States’ increasing pressure campaign against Cuba’s brutal communist rule, as Trump administration officials have long stated their intentions of wanting regime change on the island nation.

On Aug. 6, the State Department announced sanctions against Cuba’s military.

More recently, Trump took the stage at the United Nations on Sept. 22 and called Cuba a failed state, adding that “freedom will be coming” to the island. The Cuban delegation walked out.

A week after that speech, Trump told reporters at the White House that he believed the United States and Cuba could reach an agreement, and American military action would not be necessary.

Prior to that comment, the president hinted in June that a potential Cuba operation could mirror the Caracas, Venezuela, raid on Jan. 3 to apprehend then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, both of whom are in custody in New York and pleading not guilty to a number of charges.

Cuban Americans told The Epoch Times they were hopeful for U.S. military action against their home country following the overnight operation in Caracas.

They also reacted with glee over the U.S. indictment against Castro in May.

Alina Fernández Revuelta, the daughter of Fidel Castro, welcomed the charges against her uncle.

“The charges increase pressure on a regime untouchable for decades,” she told The Epoch Times in a text message. “Coming from a family directly connected to that history, you understand the weight of this moment in a different way.”

Apple shares are down about 1% in premarket trading in New York on renewed concerns about iPhone demand.

Loop Capital technology analyst Ananda Baruah downgraded Apple from “Buy” to “Hold,” citing slumping expectations that the company will recover lost iPhone shipments next year and warning that skyrocketing memory chip costs could further squeeze profit margins.

Baruah lowered his 12-month price target to $330 from $370, nearly in line with Bloomberg-tracked analyst forecasts of around $334. The new target implies roughly 4% downside from the $343 share price cited in the note.

Baruah explained the reason for the rating downgrade:

We’re downgrading AAPL to Hold from Buy and lowering our PT to $330 from $370 on new iPhone data from Loop Capital Supply Chain Analyst John Donovan (Latest AAPL ASP Tracker & Build Analysis – Reported Cuts Not True – Yet?) as our “normalized” EPS is reduced to $11.00 from $12.00 (and our new PT using an AAPL median P/E of 30x is $330.) 

The gist is that when AAPL previously reduced its Sep Q & Dec Q iPhone unit ships by 10% we believed they would be in a position to make up many (if not most) of these units through CY2027 as the reductions were supply related (memory & processors) & not demand related. 

This no longer appears to be the case. Further, while not the core aspect of our call today we acknowledge then potential for GM risk as memory costs continue to increase.

The revised forecasts also reflect much lower expectations for iPhone selling prices. For next year, the analyst slashed his average selling price estimate to $1,096 from $1,235 and reduced projected iPhone revenue to about $285 billion from $315 billion.

He expects total 2027 revenue to reach $539 billion, down from $569 billion, and earnings of $9.76 a share, compared with his previous $10.11 estimate.

For the December quarter, Baruah forecasts 79 million iPhone shipments, below the consensus estimate of 85 million. He forecasts iPhone revenue of about $88.7 billion for the quarter, below Wall Street expectations of roughly $93 billion.

Baruah’s note, published on Monday, builds on soft iPhone demand cited by analysts at Jefferies and other desks. There was good news last week on Duo demand, as the flurry of preorders outstripped launch inventory, pushing some orders out until January 25. But premium handsets priced at $1,000-plus and $2,000-plus are still too expensive for mass adoption. Apple’s Tim Cook learned that the hard way with the $3,000-plus, goofy-looking Vision Pro. 

General Motors shares are plunging more than 6% in premarket trading Tuesday, despite the automaker announcing a massive new $20 billion share repurchase program and reporting quarterly earnings that came in ahead of Wall Street expectations, according to Bloomberg News. 

The selling comes as GM continues to grapple with a weakening U.S. auto market, where higher financing costs and pressure on household budgets have made it increasingly difficult to sell lower-priced vehicles. Demand for the company’s more expensive trucks and SUVs has held up considerably better, allowing GM to preserve profitability even as overall sales volumes come under pressure.

Bloomberg/Financial Post reports that for the third quarter, GM generated approximately $50 billion in revenue and $4.1 billion in adjusted operating profit, narrowly beating analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings of $3.70 per share also exceeded the $3.56 consensus estimate. Perhaps more importantly, automotive free cash flow jumped 40% to $5.9 billion.

That cash generation is helping fund an increasingly aggressive effort to return money to shareholders. GM’s latest $20 billion repurchase authorization follows a $6 billion program announced earlier this year and approximately $29.5 billion in buybacks completed since 2023. The newest authorization is expected to be used over several years.

Management also tightened its 2026 earnings forecast, now expecting adjusted operating profit between $14.5 billion and $15.5 billion, versus its previous projection of $14 billion to $16 billion. The midpoint of the guidance remains unchanged.

Looking ahead, GM is putting additional emphasis on its bread-and-butter pickup business, with redesigned Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra trucks expected later this year. The company also plans to increase output of higher-end models equipped with V-8 engines, betting that wealthier consumers will continue paying a premium for larger vehicles.

The approach marks a notable change from GM’s previous enthusiasm for electric vehicles and autonomous driving, both of which have resulted in expensive setbacks. CEO Mary Barra has increasingly redirected attention toward established profit centers, while pursuing more targeted opportunities in vehicle software, advanced driver assistance and even defense-related manufacturing.

GM’s overseas operations, meanwhile, continue to struggle. Quarterly profit from China fell 60% from a year earlier to just $32 million.

The broader auto industry has undergone a significant reassessment over the past two years. After spending much of the early 2020s promising an accelerated transition to electric vehicles, several major manufacturers have scaled back EV investments, delayed launches and absorbed substantial losses as consumer adoption failed to match earlier expectations.

At the same time, persistently expensive vehicles, elevated interest rates and increasingly stretched consumers have complicated the outlook for traditional auto sales. The result is an industry increasingly focused on protecting margins, generating cash and selling the vehicles customers are actually willing to buy, rather than pursuing the ambitious growth narratives that dominated the sector just a few years ago.

On Tuesday the UK Maritime Operations Centre has reported a new incident around 121 nautical miles east of the Omani coast.

The UKMTO announced the vessel was “subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region” at around 10am GMT. Regional reports say two tankers are on fire. But Tehran is boasting of a fresh sea mine attack, amid daily ramped-up assaults on international shipping as it tries to hold on to leverage over the United States and global oil transit.

The Iranian side filled in more information, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) describing that “Two violating oil tankers were set ablaze and halted due to the explosion of mines planted by the brave sailors of the IRGC Navy at an illegal crossing point in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a statement published on their official Sepah News website.

This past weekend Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that his country’s offer to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days is still on the table.

Mediation efforts said that “Qatar and Pakistan presented a ‘compromise proposal’ that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides”, Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.

Those conditions were first presented in mid-September. “Our situation is clear and based on ⁠the seven-days proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn’t, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious,” Araqchi stated Sunday.

For anyone who has lost track, these are the seven conditions Tehran presented in September:

1. lift the maritime blockade;
2. restore Iran’s frozen assets;
3. lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports;
4. halt all US actions “under the pretext of threats and military operations”;
5. end the war on Iran and its regional allies;
6. withdraw US forces from areas around Iran’s borders;
7. pay compensation for war damage and commit not to interfere with Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

According to more of the latest from Bloomberg Tuesday morning:

Brent oil fluctuated near a five-month high as traders weighed the risk of further Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against robust crude flows from the Persian Gulf. The global benchmark was just below US$110 a barrel, near the highest since May, while the most-active West Texas Intermediate contract was close to US$99.

Iran has “no choice” but to assert control over Hormuz to safeguard the country’s security, First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said on Oct 19, according to a report from state-run news agency IRNA.

Meanwhile, other Tehran officials have continued to warn that if active fighting resumes, Iran’s military still has a lot of cards to play.

At the start of this week IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi has threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that “all of the world’s internet and commercial data depend on them,” according to Al Jazeera.

🚨🇮🇷🇴🇲 A tanker had an encounter with military forces off the coast of Oman yesterday… The vessel was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region. Authorities are aware and investigations continue. Ships have been advised to stay alert to the evolving security situation, as always. Source: UKMTO / Writer: Samuel

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 20, 2026

He added: “We just want them to know that new targets and new weapons will be unveiled.”

Mohebi has also claimed that the US lacks the “technical and military”” capability to launch a new operation, which President Trump has lately threatened, likely to resume after the November midterm elections. So far the US military has remained surprisingly quiet amid daily Iranian assaults on international shipping.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk…

• US President Trump criticised Europe for failing to support the US over Iran and suggested Washington could reconsider its support for Europe.
• Iran’s IRGC said it intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz using its new advanced air defence system.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said they have held several contacts and consultations and that if there is even the slightest chance that it may be able to prevent the escalation of tensions through diplomacy, they must definitely go this route. On talks with Russia, Baghaei said there was no discussion about nuclear negotiations with the US, and that Iran are not negotiating with the US in this regard.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said the US’ response to the proposal from Iran was incomplete and insufficient.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said US bases in the region provide no benefits and only fuel insecurity, Press TV reported.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran-Russia cooperation is closer than ever, with talks covering regional developments and expanding economic and nuclear cooperation, IRNA reported.
• Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said “We are working with Washington and Tehran in partnership with other mediating countries to end the war in the region.”
• Pakistan Army Chief Munir has arrived in Tehran to meet with senior officials of Iran.
• Russian Foreign Minister met Iran’s President and Supreme National Security Council Secretary in Tehran, following earlier talks with his Iranian counterpart, Iran Nuances reported.
• An explosion was reportedly heard in Iran’s southern city of Bandar Abbas, Sabereen News reported.
• Yemeni forces reportedly targeted Saudi Arabia’s Dammam airport with missiles and drones, temporarily suspending operations, Tasnim reported, citing Al-Masirah.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said there are indications that Iran and its proxies want to challenge Israel before the elections.
• US War Secretary Hegseth met Israeli PM Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, Axios reported.
• US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff plan to travel to Norway this week for Ukraine talks and Ukraine President Zelensky is expected to join talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he talked with US Secretary of State Rubio on the topics of ballistic interceptors and Starlinks. He later said that Ukraine supports a mutual energy ceasefire.
• Ukraine’s DTEK said a Russian attack struck three of its energy facilities in the Odessa region.
• The Trump administration has delayed approving transfers of Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine from partner countries, Washington Post reported.

The United Kingdom has on Tuesday announced yet more creeping escalation in the Yemen war. It is offering Saudi Arabia ‘defensive’ assistance by deploying its Typhoon fighter jets.

The British Ministry of Defence claimed the warplanes and British pilots would operate only in a “defensive role” – though its yet to be seen what exactly this will mean.

“The UK will fly defensive counter air missions to support the protection of Saudi cities and critical national infrastructure against aerial attack, using RAF Typhoon fighter jets,” the statement added.

In this current situation the line between what gets deemed defensive vs. offensive is going to be thin, at a moment Saudi territory has been coming under almost daily attack from Houthi ballistic missiles and drones. Will UK warplanes move to take out launch systems if their locations are identified in Yemen?

The kingdom’s major airports have been shuttered for the past week, with airspace effectively closed due to the missile threat, and Aramco energy sites have been pummeled.

It is almost unprecedented to see the Saudi economy, which relies heavily on foreign investments for expansion, essentially get temporarily cut off from the outside world. The kingdom has been forced to cancel over a dozen major events it was expected to host, including its annual ‘Davos in the Desert’ flagship investor conference, which was originally scheduled for next week.

Concerning the kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative, The Wall Street Journal reported that “Organizers decided Monday that if the conference goes ahead, its sessions will be held virtually rather than in person, the people said.”

The report added: “The kingdom is expected to make a decision Tuesday or earlier whether to postpone the event, they said. Postponement is the most likely outcome, some of the people said.”

UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has said, “The continuing attacks from the Houthis on our ally Saudi Arabia are absolutely despicable. The targeting of the airport in Riyadh in particular shows the lengths the Houthis are going to escalate the situation in the region.”

“That’s why today I have approved further UK military support. RAF Typhoons will fly defensive air missions to help protect Saudi airspace from drones and missiles. This builds on the UK equipment and personnel we already have in the country to defend against Houthi air attacks,””he added.

But how long until these warplanes become offensive?

Ansar Allah has closed the last road left open for forces and people to leave Taez. It is a question of when the city will fall. The UK will be engaged I supporting Saudi Arabia but that would bring it into an unnecessary war with no possibility to alter the outcome.

— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) October 20, 2026

Or rather, perhaps this just appears the public-facing narrative and might in reality mark a full-fledged British entry into the conflict. Already London had pledged an aerial refueling tanker to support Saudi coalition operations over Yemen.

As for Washington, it says it is only providing an intelligence-sharing and advisory role. President Trump has not shown an appetite for getting deeper in, at a moment the Hormuz Strait crisis is still being navigated.

Back in late August, Goldman Sachs commodities expert Samantha Dart warned that EU natural gas prices would need to soar dramatically to discourage Asian LNG demand and shift cargoes to Europe amid disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

*EUROPE’S GAS BENCHMARK EXCEEDS €90 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2022

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 20, 2026

Fast forward to Tuesday morning, European gas prices (TTF) have topped 90 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since late 2022. Notably, Dart warned about where prices were headed when EU NatGas was trading around 67 euros. 

Separately, Goldman’s Daan Struyven and Dart released a new note earlier today, putting their base case for Brent crude at $90 a barrel and European benchmark EU NatGas at 70 euros by year-end, assuming a recovery in Middle Eastern supply and easing risk premiums. Brent is forecast to average $80 in 2027.

However, they warned that risks remained skewed toward the upside: Brent crude could climb to $140 early next year and average about $125 in 2027 if Gulf oil output averages 5 million barrels a day below February 2026 levels. As for EU NatGas, they warned it could soar to 150 euros if Gulf LNG exports remain at just one quarter of normal levels and a more severe winter boosts heating demand. 

Here’s what they said: 

Our base case is that a further recovery in Mideast supply and a moderation in the risk premium reduce prices of Brent crude and European natural gas to $90/bbl and EUR70/MWh, respectively, by end-2026.2 However, we remain concerned that geopolitical escalation—such as intensified shipping attacks or damage to energy infrastructure—and, for European natural gas, a cold winter could push energy prices significantly higher.

While estimated Persian Gulf exports of crude oil—including estimated dark exports— remained near their 2025 average over the past 7 days (Exhibit 2), they edged down from the early October highs as attacks on ships attempting to cross Hormuz have picked up (Exhibit 2). Estimated Gulf exports of refined oil products are much lower at around 40% of the 2025 average, in part reflecting Mideast refinery outages. Similarly, visible LNG crossings through Hormuz, have edged down this month relative to late October levels.

Misses in Mideast supply could push energy prices significantly higher: 

• Brent might rally to $140 in early 2027 and average around $125/bbl in 2027 (red line, Exhibit 4) if 2027 average Gulf output remains 5mb/d below Feb26 levels (while refined product prices would likely rise further from already very high levels)
• TTF might rally to 150 EUR/MWh by year-end if Persian Gulf LNG exports don’t improve beyond 25% of normal and if the winter realizes 1 std. dev. colder than average (Exhibit 5)

Beyond energy, the analysts noted that the Bloomberg Commodity Index delivered a 36% total return this year, outperforming equities and bonds. 

As ex-Goldman Sachs Jeff Currie, including ourselves, has pointed out, commodities have entered a period of scarcity, whether due to resource nationalism, adverse weather, supply woes, and more.

Dining out is likely to remain expensive as uneven relief in ingredient costs keeps restaurant margins under pressure.

Lower cattle prices have provided some relief this past summer, but soaring cooking-oil and grain costs, along with a rebound in chicken prices, leave little room for broad menu price cuts, according to a note from BofA restaurant analyst Sara Senatore on Friday.

Cattle prices fell 9% from a year earlier in the third quarter, reversing a 9.8% increase in the second quarter, Senatore wrote. But the futures market points to a 1.4% rise from a year earlier in the fourth quarter and a 3.9% rise from the preceding three months.

The decline in cattle prices comes as major restaurant operators face elevated prices for a wide variety of inputs. Soybean oil prices rose 35.7% in the third quarter, while wheat gained 19.6% and corn increased 10%. 

Chicken prices are also turning higher after a sharp decline over the last year. Breast prices were up 4% from October a year earlier, compared with a 36% decline in July. Wing prices rose 2%, reversing a 28% drop over the same period.

Prices 

Prices 

Impacts vary across restaurant chains. Beef and chicken account for 25% to more than 35% of food input costs at restaurants outside categories such as pizza, coffee, and desserts.

Texas Roadhouse sits at the higher end of protein exposure because its menu is mostly beef-based, while Cava and Sweetgreen sit at the lower end. These are the key restaurants Senatore covers.

Consumers hoping for relief from expensive restaurant bills may have to keep waiting. Senatore’s mixed commodity outlook gives operators little reason to think that cost pressures are over.

Food inflation is pressuring the pocketbooks of working-class consumers and has softened demand for McDonald’s, with its shares on pace for the steepest annual decline since 2002.

UBS equity trader Mark Paski recently warned that Wall Street has turned its back on consumer stocks.

Over the medium term, we see preparing meals at home as one of the best ways for consumers to save their money…

…as restaurant prices remain high, which has been the norm for many folks since the inflationary storm sparked up during the Biden-Harris years.