Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let’s check in on the not exactly impressive energy and inflation results of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)…

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Biden’s energy policy has been an inflationary disaster. And make no mistake, the IRA was nothing but energy policy, more precisely, climate policy.

The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill

Bloomberg flashback, August 15, 2022: The Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill. Just Don’t Call It One.

“It does seem kind of wacky and counterintuitive for the most consequential climate legislation ever to be called the ‘Inflation Reduction Act,’” says Angela Bradbery, a professor of public interest communications at the University of Florida’s journalism school. “For the public, it’s probably more confusing than anything.”

Congress once passed bills with simpler and more intuitive names, such as the Clean Air Act. But today’s political and media landscape demands that legislation be packaged to steer public debate in a direction the sponsors can better manage. 

“Words matter. Names matter,” says Ed Maibach, director of George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication. “Inflation and the price of gas are top of mind concerns for most Americans today, so calling the bill the Inflation Reduction Act was a stroke of rhetorical genius.”

Since the IRA’s surprise unveiling on July 27, analysts have debated how much its contents pertain to inflation. “The IRA speaks to the high energy costs” Americans are struggling with, says Stokes.

Hoot of the Day: Rhetorical Genius

In retrospect, the name is such a disaster that Biden even admits so.

Biden says he regrets the name of one of his signature legislative achievements — the Inflation Reduction Act — saying it sells itself short https://t.co/faONKkoPS7

— Bloomberg (@business) August 10, 2023

Green New Deal by Another Name

President Biden said the quiet part out loud, the “Inflation Reduction Act” wasn’t about reducing inflation. It was about passing the Green New Deal by another name.

Americans don’t want their taxpayer dollars subsidizing green energy projects that don’t work. pic.twitter.com/5tnjq1o1Y1

— Warren Davidson 🇺🇸 (@WarrenDavidson) February 10, 2023

Biden’s Green-Energy Price Shock

The Wall Street Journal comments on Biden’s Green-Energy Price Shock

Do White House officials pay electric bills? They strangely keep saying the President’s climate agenda is reducing electric-power rates even as the cost of running your dishwasher is sky-rocketing, as illuminated by the Labor Department’s consumer-price index.

By our calculation, electricity prices have increased 13 times faster under Mr. Biden than across the previous seven years. His policies aren’t entirely to blame. But most of it is a result of the left’s climate agenda, and the price increases will get worse.

Federal regulations, renewable subsidies and state green-energy mandates are forcing fossil-fuel and nuclear plants to retire prematurely. Solar and wind need backup from so-called peaker gas plants, usually at a hefty premium. During power shortages, spot prices can hit $10,000 per megawatt hour compared to $30 to $60 on a normal basis.

State net-metering programs also subsidize people with solar panels for excess power they remit to the grid. People without solar then pay more for the grid’s fixed costs, which are also growing as more renewables are added. In California an average customer without solar pays 10% to 20% more to subsidize solar.

How Much Did the IRA Cost?

Joe Biden promised his $1 trillion Inflation “Reduction” Act would lower inflation.

The reality?

Inflation is rising and the cost keeps climbing, now over $700 billion.

— Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) April 12, 2024

It’s much worse than Moore suggests.

Inflation Reduction Act Cost

The following chart is courtesy of Penn Wharton.

During a speech about the so called ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ ironically, Joe Biden challenged anyone to “Name me a single objective we’ve ever set out to accomplish that we failed on,” prompting critics to provide entire lists.https://t.co/KKlZ9nRtEe

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) August 17, 2023

A year ago I commented The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion

The true costs begin to emerge. 

The key word in that sentence is “begin”. Expect more revisions to this newly revised $1 trillion+ cost estimate. 

Nothing in the bill will reduce inflation. It was a known lie right from the start.

Bear in mind, the $1 trillion and counting estimate does not factor in higher energy costs for consumers and businesses.

So let me ask again: How Much Did the IRA Cost?

It’s Been a Bloody Month for Bond Market Bulls

If you are a bond market bull, it’s been a tough month. Let’s review what happened, why, and what’s ahead.

US Treasury Yields from the New York Fed as of 2024-04-10

Earlier today I noted It’s Been a Bloody Month for Bond Market Bulls

Summation

The inflationary pressures include demographics, the IRA, energy policy, regulations, tariffs, child tax credits unless the Senate kills that, and another unconstitutional push by Biden for student debt cancellation.

And there’s much more. Click on the above link for details.

President Joe Biden this week for the first time said his administration is weighing the Australian government’s requests to drop charges against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who has been deprived of his freedom since 2010 and is currently jailed in London’s notorious Belmarsh Prison while fighting extradition to the United States.

Asked by reporters at the White House about requests from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and members of the country’s Parliament for the U.S. and United Kingdom to drop the extradition effort and charges against Assange – an Australian citizen – Biden said that “we’re considering it.”

Stella Assange, Julian’s wife, responded to Biden’s remarks on social media. “Do the right thing,” she wrote. “Drop the charges. #FreeAssangeNOW.”

Srećko Horvat, a Croatian philosopher and co-founder of the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 pan-European progressive political party, said that “this would be the best decision Biden ever made.” British journalist Afshin Rattansi asked, “Why has Julian Assange been put through this ordeal in the first place?”

Assange – who is 52 years old and suffers from various health problems – faces multiple U.S. charges under the Espionage Act and Computer Fraud and Abuse Act for his role in publishing classified government documents, some of them revealing war crimes and other misdeeds. Among the files published by WikiLeaks are the “Collateral Murder” video – which shows a U.S. Army helicopter crew killing a group of Iraqi civilians – the Afghan and Iraq war logs.

Three U.S. administrations have pursued charges against Assange. During the administration of former President Donald Trump – who is the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee – officials including then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo allegedly plotted to assassinate Assange to avenge WikiLeaks’ publication of the “Vault 7” documents exposing CIA electronic warfare and surveillance activities. In 2010, Trump called for Assange’s execution.

The U.K. High Court ruled last month that Assange could not be immediately extradited to the U.S., where he faces up to 175 years behind bars if convicted on all counts. The tribunal gave the Biden administration until April 16 to guarantee that Assange won’t face the death penalty. Absent such assurance, Assange will be allowed to continue appealing his extradition.

Last month, Assange’s legal team denied reports that a plea deal with the U.S. government may have been in the works.

Assange has been imprisoned in Belmarsh since 2019. Before that, he spent nearly seven years in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he had been granted political asylum under the government of leftist former President Rafael Correa.

As @POTUS responds “we’re considering it” to a media question about Australia’s request to drop the prosecution of Julian Assange, RSF reiterates our long-standing call on the Biden administration to drop these charges, close the case, and #FreeAssange! pic.twitter.com/AYozIF1SzQ

— RSF (@RSF_inter) April 10, 2024

The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention found in 2016 that Assange had been arbitrarily deprived of his freedom since his first arrest on December 7, 2010. In 2019, Nils Melzer, then the U.N.’s special rapporteur on torture, said Assange had been subjected to “psychological torture.”

Following the High Court’s decision last month, Amnesty International legal adviser Simon Crowther said that “the U.S. must stop its politically motivated prosecution of Assange, which puts Assange and media freedom at risk worldwide.”

Brett Wilkins is is staff writer for Common Dreams. Based in San Francisco, his work covers issues of social justice, human rights and war and peace. This originally appeared at CommonDreams and is reprinted with the author’s permission.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Silver prices have rocketed higher in recent days, and they have been surging today (with great volatility). As a futures market, more of it trades on exchange relative to its annual physical supply compared to cocoa. Therefore it’s not inconceivable silver could deliver a similar sort of move to cocoa’s recent mega-rally.

Silver is notoriously volatile and is considerably smaller than the gold market. It has experienced the sort of rallies cocoa recently experienced before: the Hunt brothers’ infamous corner in 1980, and in 2011.

With the futures market being bigger relative to annual supply compared to cocoa, that further increases the chance surging demand could cause prices to spike even more.

In a further demonstration of the small size of the silver market, the rally in 2011 did not really have a single factor.

Instead, loose monetary policy, the US’s debt downgrade and other factors conspired to drive demand that the market simply could not handle.

China and inflation are probably driving silver demand.

On the latter front, silver positioning has risen sharply in recent weeks, perhaps as latecomers looking for an inflation hedge feel they have missed the boat on gold (discussed here at the beginning of the month).

Either way, silver is still very cheap relative to gold, another factor that could help drive its price to cocoa-like extremes.

Of course, given its extreme volatility, prices could fall as quickly as they have risen.

Joe Biden’s sticky inflation continues to ravage the working poor as Bidenomics falls flat on its face. The president’s ally at the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has yet to achieve the 2% inflation Fed target ahead of the November elections. 

As inflation heats up in the first quarter of this year, the cost of driving on American highways is seriously spiraling out of control. Auto insurance in the US increased more than 22% in the 12 months that ended in March, the largest annual increase since 1976, according to Bloomberg. 

The cost of owning and or driving a vehicle in the US is absolutely insane. From $1,000 monthly payments to ridiculous repair bills to the average price of gasoline inching closer to the politically sensitive level of $4 a gallon to, of course, skyrocketing auto insurance, the cost of driving is unbearable for some. For others, still near record high prices for used and new vehicles, plus the highest borrowing rates in a generation, continue to worsen the affordability crisis. 

For more clarity on what’s driving auto insurance rates through the roof. Bloomberg’s Keith Naughton explained why in five bullet points:

1. Cars are more expensive to fix: 

Today’s cars are packed with high-tech gadgetry meant to entertain, comfort and protect occupants. The array of safety equipment now common on cars includes automatic emergency braking, blind-spot detection and lane departure warnings. To give drivers eyes in the back of their head, automotive engineers have embedded cameras, sonar and radar sensors from bumper to bumper. All that technology has driven up the cost of repairing even a minor fender bender.

For example, when Toyota Motor Corp. upgraded its Camry sedan in 2018, its front bumper went from having 18 parts to 43, including sensors for the advanced driver-assistance system that can control speed and lane position automatically as well as provide blind-spot warnings. As a result, it now costs 43% more to repair a Camry after a front-end collision, according to Mitchell International Inc., a researcher that provides data and software to insurance companies and car repair shops. The average repair bill for a car with a standard internal- combustion engine was $5,564 in 2023, according to auto insurance processing company CCC Intelligent Solutions.

2. Electric vehicles are even more expensive:

If your vehicle is battery powered, then the cost to repair it is 22.3% higher than for a traditional car, or $6,806 on average last year, according to the processing company. Even though EVs have fewer parts than internal combustion engine vehicles, they are more costly to fix for a variety of reasons, starting with that big battery underneath the floorboards. 

The battery is the most expensive component on an electric car — by far. It’s also costly to handle during repairs. Because of the risk of battery fires, many manufacturers require that the massive lithium-ion battery be drained and disconnected before a repair. If the EV needs to be welded or taken through a hot paint bay, then the battery has to be removed entirely. The result: A battery-powered model takes nearly 50 days to repair, on average, 10 days longer than non-EVs, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions. 

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. cited repair costs for EVs that were twice as high as for traditional cars when it decided to drastically scale back its EV rental fleet last fall. EV repair costs will probably come down as battery-powered automobiles become more commonplace — they accounted for just 7.6% of US car sales last year — but that could take a while since mainstream consumers are passing on plug-in models for now because of high prices and a spotty charging infrastructure.

3. There are more crashes that are more severe 

Despite the additional safety equipment on cars to help drivers avoid crashes, US roads have become far more dangerous. And that’s pushing up insurance rates to cover the costs of repairs and health care for those injured in crashes. Nearly 41,000 people died in US traffic crashes last year, up 13% from 2019, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

That increase followed decades of declines in road fatalities, and it coincided with the rise of mobile phone use in cars. Americans look at their phones while driving at three times the rate of drivers in the UK, according to a study by Cambridge Mobile Telematics. Most cars these days are also outfitted with a tablet-like touchscreen in the dashboard to provide entertainment and navigation. In 2022 in the US, 3,808 people were killed and more than 289,000 were injured in crashes involving distracted driving, according to NHTSA. 

Paradoxically, all the high-tech safety equipment in new cars might be giving motorists a false sense of security. “People were concerned that there might be an incentive to be even more distracted while driving because you believe the technology will kick in when needed,” said Stephen Crewdson, senior director of insurance business intelligence with researcher J.D. Power. “It looks like they were correct because we’re seeing auto collisions are still happening as they did before, and the severity is going up.”

4. There’s a shortage of mechanics and car parts 

Pandemic-related shortages of parts and a long-running dearth of mechanics to bolt them onto cars has turbocharged repair costs and thus insurance premiums. Though there was an uptick in mechanics last year, there remains a chronic shortage: The industry needs as many as 800,000 more technicians to meet demand over the next five years, according to a study by TechForce Foundation, which tracks the business. 

Between 2020 and 2022, the number of graduates completing postsecondary programs in the auto sector fell by 20%. As the baby boomer-heavy profession loses thousands of mechanics to retirement each year, fewer young people are going into the profession that pays on average $49,690 annually, 20% below the national average wage, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

EV mechanics are even harder to find. Pricey labor accounts for nearly half the cost of an EV repair, and it’s the biggest factor in the disparity between the expense to fix an EV and a non-EV, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions. The price of car parts also skyrocketed as Covid shutdowns and the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains. The twin shortages of people and parts continue to drive up repair costs, which rose 3.1% month- over-month in the latest core consumer price index, the biggest jump since August 2022.

5. Insurance companies are playing catch-up 

During the early days of the pandemic, driving miles plummeted and accidents declined by so much that auto insurers refunded their policy holders billions of dollars during April and May of 2020. But the snapback was severe. First came the rising costs from the parts shortages, then the price of cars, also in short supply, shot up, and finally drivers returned to the roads with a vengeance. The resulting surge in crashes and claims left auto insurers with their worst underwriting results in decades. They found themselves upside down, with the cost of claims exceeding the premiums they were bringing in. 

So the insurance companies began aggressively increasing rates. The latest consumer price index data show rates rose by 2.6% in March, the biggest monthly advance since July 2020. Consumer advocates accuse the insurers of being too aggressive with their rate increases and point to the rising stock prices of the big insurance companies as proof. But since auto insurance is regulated by each US state, insurers have had to make a case for their increases based on the trends of rising claims, costs and accident rates. 

“A gas station can increase and decrease prices by the minute,” Crewdson of J.D. Power said. “But an auto insurer has to justify their rate changes, so they are always behind the curve. They’re still catching up.” And that means rates will continue to rise.

For those who can no longer afford to drive and must take public transportation.

Remember this quote:

Perhaps WEF’s dream is coming true after all. 

The next bean hyperinflating is Robusta coffee futures in London, hitting fresh record highs on Friday. This comes as poor harvests in Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer of robusta beans, fuels concerns about global shortages. Also, arabica futures are erupting.

Futures for robusta, the cheaper coffee bean grown at lower altitudes and requiring less care than more expensive arabica, are up 2.6% to $3,945 per ton, a new record high based on data going back to 2008.

A new report from the chairman of Intimex Group, the country’s largest shipper, details how robusta exports for 2023-24 are expected to be lower than the prior growing season at 1.5 million tons. 

Bloomberg quoted Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera as saying, “Speculators are drawing parallels between cocoa and coffee, which is a bit surprising.” 

Mera said, “The big parallel that I can draw is all the coffee trees on average got older due to lack of field work and as a result we see the Vietnamese crop that is not growing.”

“The coffee market has also been supported as hedge funds exit the cocoa market — where big shortfalls have sent prices soaring — and pile into coffee,” Bloomberg noted. 

A note this week from forecaster Maxar said there are concerns about Vietnam’s bean output in the next growing season. 

And Rabobank’s Mera added that European deforestation rules could force buying before the end of the year. 

Last week, we detailed how Arabica coffee futures were beginning to erupt. Now, on the month, prices have risen 23%. If these gains hold, it will be the largest monthly gain since February 2014. 

Also, last week’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for Arabica futures in New York showed data on futures and options, managed money-only long contracts hit a record high. 

Central banks are powerless in a world where inflation continues to run rampant. 

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For months and even years, the mainstream news has sought to spin terrible inflation news. It’s not so bad, it’s just transitional, it’s getting better, it’s not really a problem, and all your gloom about the value of the dollar is in your head. Truly, in the past fortnight, we have been inundated with articles suggesting that the public is dumb as rocks for thinking that inflation is still a problem.

Yesterday morning: boom! The upward trend for the entire first quarter was solidly confirmed. We could be entering a second wave. It was so bad that not even the two most influential venues could deny it. The New York Times reported, “Inflation Stronger Than Expected.” The Wall Street Journal reported, “Hot Inflation Report Weakens Case for Fed’s June Rate Cut.” The accompanying editorial is even better: “The Inflation Thief Rises Again.”

Truly, I’m stunned by the highly unusual and rather brazen truthfulness of these headlines. I don’t think we’ve seen that in three years. Which makes me wonder: Maybe the problem is even worse!

Here is a look at the inflation data as we see it now. The upward trajectory even from last summer is becoming apparent. The total loss of purchasing power in three years is easily 20 percent, but probably closer to 30 percent or more.

And that’s just from the official data, which is highly manipulated by messing up the pricing of housing and health insurance while excluding the cost of borrowing entirely. Adding those easily gets us back to double digits and perhaps exceeding what we experienced in 1979–1980, especially once you consider the sheer longevity of this mess.

In the 1970s, the devastation occurred in three distinct waves. Each time the trend improved, elites declared victory and the Federal Reserve moved in with rate cuts, thereby causing yet another round. Absolutely no one in charge anticipated the next wave. It came anyway.

Are we about to repeat this pattern?

It’s extremely spooky that the Fed has been angling for a rate cut for the past six months, just waiting for the chance. It’s bizarre. The whole idea of cutting rates comes from the notion of “countercyclical monetary policy.” You do it to stop a recession or dig out of one when it is happening.

Why would they talk about cutting rates now? Officially, we are doing well, in an upswing. To be sure, I don’t believe a word of it. The jobs data is a joke, and so is the output data. This is not recovery. It is possible to reconstruct the numbers in a way to show that we never left the recession of March 2020 and never recovered from lockdowns.

Regardless, based on official announcements of our rosy present, there is no case for a Fed rate cut now. The main motivation is more likely political: anything to help President Joe Biden win in November, because he is a proxy for the administrative corporate state that fears another populist revolt to take away their power. That’s why they want a rate cut.

There is no reason to doubt that the Fed is working against a Trump win. The central bank is part of the deep state, integral to the establishment in the United States and the world. It will use all its powers to game the election in a way that is institutionally protective of its interests. That means a big cut long before the election.

But in order to justify one, inflation does need at least to have the appearance of getting under control. They can claim it is happening all day, and they have done this for months and years. But it also helps when the data is there to back up such claims.

That is not happening. The consumer price index (CPI) data, even as manipulated as it is, is simply not cooperating with the very idea of rate cuts. As a result, the Fed keeps being put in the situation of suggesting that it is waiting to do so. But truly, it is getting rather late in the season for a rate cut to have any real impact on second- and third-quarter output numbers.

Wall Street recognizes this, which is why financial markets took a hard hit on the CPI data this week. It suggests that they are not going to get their fix of cheap money anytime soon. If that doesn’t happen, the stock market could come back to earth. Meanwhile, commodity prices are headed in the other direction, exactly as we might expect under inflationary conditions.

Gold and bitcoin are alive and on the move, further adding to market pessimism. Let’s face it: These assets perform well when there is no other hope out there. Even central banks are buying up gold and crypto as a safe haven.

Safe from what? That’s the great question right now. Just how bad could a financial calamity get? It’s time to start asking that question. At this point, there is no chance of crushing inflation. Monetary velocity is on an upswing, and there is still $5 trillion and more in unwarranted money printing sloshing around the U.S. economy and the world. That is still working its way through global and domestic prices.

Meanwhile, we face a stunning fiscal crisis, with interest on the debt on the verge of dwarfing every other budgetary item. The commercial real estate crisis in cities is getting worse in these waves of defaults that have begun and are certain to hit city after city in the coming year or two.

Regardless of what happens between now and November, this crisis will accelerate in 2025 to become absolutely beastly, exactly at the point where the ruling class will no longer be able to bamboozle the public with rising 401(k) and other investment funds.

If a genuine financial and stock-market crisis comes in 2025 amidst a new wave of inflation, look out. What people call the “populist revolt” of our times will be nothing like what will emerge. The possibilities are truly terrifying.

There’s no need just yet to become apocalyptic, but this much we can say for sure: Today’s inflation numbers reveal that our troubles are far from over. The standard of living is on the decline and worsening, hitting the middle class as never before, with home ownership out of the question for most people.

Why didn’t the experts anticipate all this fallout from the lockdown disaster? To put it bluntly, they are not experts. They are ham-handed, greedy, and stupid, and play their policy games without serious concern for the well-being of the public. A major difference today versus the 1970s is that people today know exactly who to blame. This is precisely why Washington has become a city of fear and loathing.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

The residential real estate market in the U.S. stands as one of the largest asset classes in the country, worth $47.5 trillion in 2023.

Despite a slowdown in home sales, the total value of homes increased $2.4 trillion last year as low inventory levels pushed up prices.

Affordable metropolitan areas saw steady price growth, while expensive metros experienced slower price appreciation.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows America’s most valuable housing markets, using data from Redfin.

Top U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets

To calculate the largest U.S. housing markets, Redfin analyzed 90 million properties covering single-family homes, townhouses, condos, and two-to four-unit multifamily properties.

Below, we show the most valuable residential markets as of December 2023:

With a housing market worth $2.4 trillion, New York, NY tops the list.

Unlike the majority of large U.S. cities, the aggregate value of homes declined as buyers became increasingly priced out of the market. At the same time, homeowners hesitated to sell in order to lock in low mortgage rates. In fact, more than 80% of mortgage holders in New York City have interest rates that are 5% or lower.

Los Angeles, CA falls in second, with a residential real estate market worth $2.0 trillion. Last year, existing home sales tumbled 24.8%, falling to the lowest point since 2007. However, the housing shortage led prices to increase amid high demand. The median sale price climbed to $975,000 in February 2024, a 5.9% jump compared to the same time last year.

Atlanta, GA ranks third and is the most overpriced housing market in the country according to one countrywide analysis. Homes have been selling for 41.7% more than their worth as of the February 2024 data update.

People are flocking to the city for many reasons. General housing affordability is a major driver, along with its thriving tech center. Along with this, state tax credits have increasingly made it a hub for the TV and film industries, earning it the moniker “Y’allywood”. Another factor in Atlanta’s inflating housing market are large investment firms, which own a huge footprint of homes in the city.

Editor’s note: For those wondering about the Bay Area, the data groups cities like San Francisco ($657 billion), San Jose ($821 billion), and Oakland ($881 billion) as individual entities, which puts them outside the cutoff. See the Redfin data for the full list of cities.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Zelensky told German media in an interview earlier this week that Ukraine is planning another counteroffensive against Russia, which is why it requires production licenses from its partners in order to build up its domestic military-industrial capacity ahead of that event. He also urged the US to break its Congressional deadlock on Ukraine aid in order to help his country prepare for this next campaign. No counteroffensive is actually planned, however, since Ukraine completely lacks the manpower and arms.

It can’t realistically narrow the yawning gap between itself and Russia, which was only widened since the dramatic failure of last summer’s counteroffensive. Russia already won the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO by far, which has dawned on many in the West over the past nine months, hence the renewed interest among some from that bloc for freezing the conflict. Nevertheless, policymakers still want to perpetuate the NATO-Russian proxy war, which his why peace talks have yet to resume.

That approach is increasingly unpopular with the masses, who’ve grown fatigued and frustrated with this conflict, especially after last summer’s failed counteroffensive exposed the fallacy of their hopes to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. This is particularly the case with the Ukrainians themselves, many of whom know someone who was killed or maimed in one of the meatgrinders. Left unaddressed, these public opinion trends could greatly complicate policymakers’ plans for perpetuating the conflict.

Therein lies the significance of Zelensky’s lie about an upcoming counteroffensive, which aims to advance several objectives, first and foremost misleading his own people by making them think that his regime has a plan for ending the conflict on their terms. They’re unlikely to fall for that though after seeing with their own eyes and hearing from trusted sources how bad everything is going for Ukraine.

Even so, Zelensky is so out of touch with his people that he still thinks he can mislead them about this.

The second objective is to deceive the foreign public in order to help relieve some of the pressure upon his Western patrons’ policymakers whose people are nowadays demanding that their politicians devise an exit plan for extricating their countries from what they’ve come to believe is a stalemate. They consider Zelensky to be very ungrateful for all the assistance that he’s hitherto received on the taxpayers’ dime and can’t imagine that anything more could make a military-strategic difference at this point.

These two perception management objectives lead to the third one regarding Zelensky’s desperate need to receive as much aid as he can as soon as possible by deceiving everyone about his side’s plans before Russia achieves a military breakthrough across the front lines.

The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned in late February that this could happen by as early as the summer, which they also predicted could coincide with nationwide protests that bring an end to his regime.

There’s no chance that Ukraine can muster the men and arms required for carrying out another counteroffensive before then, let alone after Russia’s reportedly forthcoming offensive ends (if his regime isn’t overthrown by then, that is), but there’s a chance that it could survive the onslaught. The only way to improve its odds is to deceive Ukrainians with false hopes about an upcoming counteroffensive so that they don’t protest while deceiving foreigners into supporting more aid.

In other words, the survival of Zelensky’s regime is on the line for the first time since Russia’s “goodwill” gesture of withdrawing its forces from Kiev during spring 2022’s peace talks, which it did out of the naïve belief that this was required to seal the deal for swiftly ending the special operation. He’s scared but he can’t show it and is therefore harnessing all of his acting skills to present a false veneer of confidence. If the front lines don’t hold and more aid isn’t forthcoming, then he might be out of power by year’s end.

Come tax season, a common refrain is: “what do my taxes even pay for?”

To answer that question, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu visualized U.S. federal government spending by function, referencing expenditure to a single federal tax dollar.

Data is for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023 from the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Total spending amounts are converted to cents on the dollar and percentages, to show where one tax dollar goes.

Major Areas of U.S. Government Spending

Social security is the government’s single largest expense and where 22% of tax dollars go. Signed into law in 1935, the program was to insure against the “hazards and vicissitudes of life.” In practice, it meant the creation of a work-related contributory system in which workers secure their own retirement by taxes paid while employed.

However, an aging population threatens its sustainability because as more people retire and draw benefits, there are fewer active workers contributing to the system.

Health and Medicare together amount to 28% of government spending. The largest health expense is grants to states for Medicaid, which helps cover medical costs for people with lower incomes. Medicare, on the other hand, is federal health insurance for people 65 and older, as well as younger people with disabilities.

National Defense accounts for 13% of government spending. This includes paying military personnel, operating and maintenance costs like fuel, buying aircraft and ships, and research and development. While fourth in terms of percentage spending, this still contributes to the largest military budget in the world—by quite a margin.

Meanwhile, Income Security (also at 13%) covers programs like unemployment compensation, nutrition assistance, and housing assistance. It also has additional retirement and disability benefits not covered by social security.

Just behind—and still well-ahead of all other government spending—is Interest Payments on government debt, coming in at about 11% of tax supported expenditure.

While Israel on Friday braced for cruise missile and suicide drone attacks, there are new reports on Saturday morning that Iranian commandos hijacked an Israeli-affiliated container ship heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. 

AP News says the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations initially reported the hijacking of Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship linked to London-based Zodiac Maritime. Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer controls the international ship management company that owns and charters large vessels. 

Video of the boarding has been circulating X for the past hour. However, “AP could not immediately verify the video, it corresponded to known details of the boarding, and the helicopter involved appeared to be one used by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has carried out other ship raids in the past,” the media outlet said. 

#NEW: Video of the hijacking of the MSC Aries by the IRGC pic.twitter.com/AlANlpbAYM

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) April 13, 2024

According to Bloomberg data, MSC Aries was leaving a port from Dubai on Friday and heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel’s last known position was recorded around 1256 local time on Saturday off Dubai’s coast. AP noted that the ship’s transponder had been switched off. 

X user Megatron called the ship’s seizure by Iran a “big game changer”: 

This once again is confirming that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade by land route from the UAE port.

Iran is now cutting that route as well. 

If Hezbollah cut the Mediterranean route with its drones, Israel could fall into a complete trade blockade.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran seized the Israeli ship MSC ARIES in the Strait of Hormuz.

This is a big game changer.

This once again is confirming that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade by land route from the UAE port.

Iran is now cutting… pic.twitter.com/D47J0jbvRU

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) April 13, 2024

The incident in the Strait of Hormuz is very concerning since maritime chokepoints in the region are plagued with conflict. Off of Yemen, in the Bab-El Mandeb Strait, Iran-backed Houthis have unleashed multi-month drone and missile attacks against US, UK, and Israeli vessels. 

In a recent note to clients, the global corporate & investment banking capital markets strategy team at MUFG Bank warned the key theme for 2024 would be “Higher friction geopolitics.” 

Focusing on the Middle East, MUFG’s Tom Joyce showed how 25% of global trade flows through three chokepoints: Suez Canal, Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Hormuz. The latest incident is very concerning for global trade and flow of goods, such as energy products, through the region. 

This all comes as Israel is bracing for drone and missile attacks by Iran or its proxies as warnings flashed on Friday about retaliation for the killing last week of senior Iranian military officials at the country’s embassy in Damascus.